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I have a hypothetical.
Premise 1: The Raptors are quite bad
Subpoint A: The Raptors will be one of the 3 worst teams in the league
Subpoint B: The Raptors will be in the lottery, likely with a better than 10% chance to win the first overall and atleast a 45% chance to be in the top-3
Premise 2: Dwight Howard will get traded
Subpoint A: He has not promised to sign any extension
Subpoint B: Toronto can trade for Dwight Howard for just its 2012 1st round pick
Premise 3: 2012 will have Andre Drummond, John Lamb, Anthony Davis and Harrison Barnes in the draft.
So two questions. Would you make this trade if you were Toronto? And would you make this trade if you were Orlando?
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Depends on Howard's intentions.
If he's coming to Toronto just for rent and still plans to go to LA/NY/wherever that isn't Toronto, then no, it'd be a retarded trade.
If I can make some backroom dealings that guarantees Dwight will sign long-term, then yes, of course it would be a good deal.
Eep, subpoint A!
No, I wouldn't make the trade. Why would you? If Howard isn't going to stay on a struggling Orlando team, he isn't going to stay with a worse Raptors team. What does 1 year of rent get you from Howard when you could draft a potential long-term star in Barnes?
Sorry, to properly answer the question: Big NO if I'm Toronto. Small no if I'm Orlando.. There are probably better deals (i.e. Clippers) available out there I'd want to explore first. I'd probably try get them to throw in DeRozan as well (maybe Jonas, but he's a bit meh).
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This upcoming draft, by all reports, is STACKED with talent.
If I was Otis Smith, I'd bite the bullet and try get as many picks as possible for Howard this year. I'd be pretty tempted to get a Clippers deal of Gordon and the Minny pick done for Howard before the season, tank my way to 10 wins and boom. Eric Gordon (strong chance of being best SG in a few years time) + 2 high lotto picks in a stacked draft.
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You guys are really starting to overvalue Dwight Howard. He isn't ALL TIME GREAT level yet. You are picking up Dwight because he is the best Center in the league due to his ability and scarcity of the position. Once you start trying to trade him for anything possible to any team you are inflating his value.
There are only 7 players in the last 10 years without a doubt I'd trade almost anything for:
Lebron James
Dwyane Wade
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan
Chris Paul
Shaquille O'Neal (forgot him initially  )
Everyone else including Dwight Howard just doesn't match up to any of these guys. With the exception of Duncan we've seen all of them carry some terrible teams into the playoffs and actually dominate better teams because there is nothing that these guys can't do. DH isn't at the level and probably won't ever be.
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and i would trade Dirkules,4 all the above mentioned
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it's because you can't dump the ball into DH and say GET ME A BUCKET like you can we the seven you mentioned. it's a fair criticism of DH. sure he might have scored 23ppg last season but it's not like he's a superstar offensive talent. you get DH for his defense, and that's why he'll need one superstar scorer or multiple very good scoring weapons to win a championship. he can't carry a bad team like lebron could in cleveland.
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Ace, I know you're big on Eric Gordon. If you were the Clippers, would you trade Gordon and your high Minny pick for Howard (assuming he'd sign long-term. Also assuming you'd still have around $20 mill in cap space too to make a play at a big FA)?
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On December 07 2011 10:25 RowdierBob wrote:
Ace, I know you're big on Eric Gordon. If you were the Clippers, would you trade Gordon and your high Minny pick for Howard (assuming he'd sign long-term. Also assuming you'd still have around $20 mill in cap space too to make a play at a big FA)?
if i were the magic i would do that in an absolute heartbeat, and the clips wouldn't mind doing that too i think. howard-griffin would be the most athletic and exciting frontcourt in the league.
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On December 07 2011 09:01 Ace wrote:
@MassHysteria: If you were building a team from the groundup and you are Orlando in the Eastern Conference would you take Bynum, Odom and Gasol for Dwight Howard? Take the salary and years they have on their contracts and ask yourself if it's worth it. You aren't getting past Chicago or Miami with those 3, and you'd be paying money out for first round casualty with no young players.
No matter what way you look at it, the Magic are going to come out losing if that is the way you want to paint the picture...the players will never justify this trade because you are right, the Magic aren't trying to become contenders again off of one trade. The only way this makes sense is looking at it in a business sense.
Bynum and Odom's contract both end in 2012, with team options for 2012/13 seasons. One of the most valued NBA trade assets over recent years has been the expiring contract, which would give the Magic two of them in these guys.
Plus, they have the chance to see what Bynum can do for 2 more years until he is 26 and decide what he is worth. Worst case scenario: Bynum gets injured again and loses all/majority of his trade value. Best case scenario: Bynum shows his potential becoming a player they can add a superstar/role players around. Middle case scenario: Bynum plays okay/good but they rather trade his expiring contract for draft picks, younger players, etc.
Odom can also be traded, but let us not forget that he actually has a team-friendly contract worth only about 8 million a year, a contract he signed only because he wanted to stay with the Lakers.
We also have to consider the people filling up the seats. Would the people coming in rather watch Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson try to do everything on their own while looking forward to 2013 rookies? Or see how far Bynum, Odom, with Bass backing them up can possibly take them in the playoffs?
With the latter, they would still have the option to trade for younger pieces or completely rebuild if that is what they still want to do and also maintain in the new salary cap rules. And they would give themselves a chance to get something out of nothing, plus that playoff $$ if they make it.
People saying that the Magic should look at teams that can offer draft picks and younger picks is true yet funny. Like slyboogie said, ORL doesn't have leverage so they can only look at the teams that Howard will resign with, leaving many of those teams out. The Magic trading for all draft picks and young talent makes sense in a perfect business world for the Magic, but they will have to choose the best trade they can get from the teams on Howard's list.
edit: and i def agree with Howard being overvalued from a historical sense.
edit2: I think the Brook Lopez would be a great deal for the Magic, I am not saying the Lakers deal is the best deal by any means (well yet). Just that it does make more sense that some people are saying.
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Of course Orlando isn't going to come out ahead in any situation where they lose Dwight (short of trading him for LBJ or something, which we know won't happen).
But if their goal is to contend again and win long-term they need to go through the draft. Small market teams get their stars through the draft. They're never going to get them through a trade.
It depends on what Orlando wants really. They can prolong the pain and get some low playoff seeds by getting guys like Bynum, Odom, Gasol etc but they're never going to win. They won't beat a team like Miami, Chicago, Boston in a bo7.
Their best chance of replacing Dwight is through the draft so they may as well blow it up and get as many picks and young assets as possible. Are they a better chance of winning with guys like Bynum and Gasol or taking their chances through the draft? I know what I'm going to get from those guys (not enough) so I'd take my chance in the draft.
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Howard isn't so overvalued in that I'd rather have Howard than a random number 1 draft pick (which you can't even guaranteed). .People talk highly of building through drafts, but there's so much luck involved.
Howard's >> Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Blake, Oden, Bargnani, Bogut, Yao Ming, Kwame Brown, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Kandi man
Howard (debatable)> Rose, Iverson
Howard < Lebron, Duncan
It's not like football where believe in number 1 picks so much you'd trade stars for number 1's.
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On December 07 2011 10:17 Ace wrote:You guys are really starting to overvalue Dwight Howard. He isn't ALL TIME GREAT level yet. You are picking up Dwight because he is the best Center in the league due to his ability and scarcity of the position. Once you start trying to trade him for anything possible to any team you are inflating his value. There are only 7 players in the last 10 years without a doubt I'd trade almost anything for: Lebron James Dwyane Wade Kobe Bryant Kevin Garnett Tim Duncan Chris Paul Shaquille O'Neal (forgot him initially ) Everyone else including Dwight Howard just doesn't match up to any of these guys. With the exception of Duncan we've seen all of them carry some terrible teams into the playoffs and actually dominate better teams because there is nothing that these guys can't do. DH isn't at the level and probably won't ever be.
I'd ALMOST put Dirk on that list... but until the past 2 seasons I don't think he had put it all together. Right now though, I wouldn't trade him for anything.
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On December 07 2011 11:12 igotmyown wrote:
Howard isn't so overvalued in that I'd rather have Howard than a random number 1 draft pick (which you can't even guaranteed). .People talk highly of building through drafts, but there's so much luck involved.
Howard's >> Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Blake, Oden, Bargnani, Bogut, Yao Ming, Kwame Brown, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Kandi man
Howard (debatable)> Rose, Iverson
Howard < Lebron, Duncan
It's not like football where believe in number 1 picks so much you'd trade stars for number 1's.
i'm just curious but are #1 picks in football really that much more valued than the nba?
because it seems to be like that #1 picks can change the team so much more in basketball. the general trend seems to be picking QB's early on, and a lot of successful QBs aren't even picked first. it seems like being a top 10 draft pick in NBA is so much more correlated to success than top 10 NFL.
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That's a really good deal for NOLA.
I'm assuming the Clips have done their due dilliegence and Paul is on board long term.
I'm guessing if that deal gets done then they make a play for someone like Chandler/Nene/Gasol in FA with their spare cash.
It's a shame they couldn't keep Gordon though. They would've had such a strong core with Gordon/Paul/Blake.
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Let's see
The NBA is a star-based league. When you draft a superstar, he affects both sides of the ball because he can both defense and offense. Also, with only 12 roster slots, and the fact that superstars play 40+ minutes typically, they have a much greater effect than a single player does on a football roster, minus the quarterback.
High NBA draft picks are HIGHLY coveted, but the late 1st rounders aren't as valuable. Think of it this way, there are only 2 NBA draft rounds for a reason, generally there aren't THAT many more players worth looking at. For football, there's 7 rounds, plus supplemental, and a SHIT ton of free agents. Getting another first round pick in football is like getting another top 7-8 pick in the NBA draft, based on the number and quality of players.
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bob, check my edit. if they don't give up gordon it's basically a steal, though they give up many good young players.
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Wow, if they pick up Paul and Chandler they'd instantly be my fave team (well, maybe #2  ). That'd be so sick.
That's actually not a bad deal for NOLA. All those guys are fairly young and the Minny pick is the key ingredient in a stacked draft (Jordan to a lesser extent too). Give NOLA a chance to rebuild properly and Clips become instant contenders if they can sign the right role players.
All the Clips would need then is a decent coach!
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On December 07 2011 11:45 KOFgokuon wrote:
Let's see
The NBA is a star-based league. When you draft a superstar, he affects both sides of the ball because he can both defense and offense. Also, with only 12 roster slots, and the fact that superstars play 40+ minutes typically, they have a much greater effect than a single player does on a football roster, minus the quarterback.
High NBA draft picks are HIGHLY coveted, but the late 1st rounders aren't as valuable. Think of it this way, there are only 2 NBA draft rounds for a reason, generally there aren't THAT many more players worth looking at. For football, there's 7 rounds, plus supplemental, and a SHIT ton of free agents. Getting another first round pick in football is like getting another top 7-8 pick in the NBA draft, based on the number and quality of players.
They sell #1 picks in the nba for cash. The patriots got Randy Moss (most gifted receiver of all time with motivation issues) for a 4th round pick, and if the Raiders asked for a #1, they would have been laughed off. Most first round draft picks in the nba end up as at best role/bench players and a good percentage end up out of the league.
I don't really understand why it works that way, but I'm guessing it's that your number 1s are expected to reinvent your team and aren't as much developmental projects (except quarterbacks), while in the nba, you stink for years and keep playing the lottery until you win. Football's probably simpler to be great at, too (except quarterbacks).
You can't bet your franchise by building around a random single high first round pick, but you can in the nfl. Otherwise the wolves and other perennial lottery teams would be godly.
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EPT
