On July 06 2016 02:09 Makro wrote: germany vs france is gonna be remake of 2014 but with one more goal since our defense is terribad (lot of injuries, as for germany but worse)
germans's gonna dominate the midfield like 2014, and it's probably gonna end like 2-0 for germany
On July 05 2016 21:20 warding wrote: People may not like the play style of Portugal vs Poland or Croatia and they may not sympathize, to put it mildly, with the likes of Pepe or Cristiano Ronaldo. However, looking at the five games so far, I don't think it can be said that Portugal were lucky to go through - no opponent so far was superior to Portugal and no game was won against the odds. Analyse the squads and Portugal has a clearly superior squad to every single opponent. Four semi-finals in five editions people.
If anything, Portugal have been unlucky: no striker has showed up since Pauleta (we're a much smaller nation than Spain, Germany, Italy, France, England, not as large a talent pool) so we're forced to play a goofy tactic with two wingers upfront, Ronaldo has missed goals where he usually scores, referees forgave a penalty in each of the Croatia and Poland games, Hungary Lamparded their way into a lucky 3-3 draw in the group stages. Had Ronaldo been his usual self in front of goal and had referees awarded those penalties, the games would have been much different.
Finally, blame the "four best 3rds go through" rule since it awards more conservative play in group stages.
Really? clearly superior squad to Croatia? I agree with the rest of your post - ronaldo has missed a couple should-be goals, you've been denied a clear penalty, you were kinda unlucky in all three group stage games. I haven't been impressed by Portugal in nearly the same way I have been by Germany or France, but from my perspective, they've kinda been a less clinical italy during game time (and more clinical during extra time and penalties).
What everyone is doing to Renato Sanches is a fucking disgrace.. people should be ashamed of raising doubt about this kid.
I won't say it's because of race, altho if he was white this would never happen, but watch this movie and tell me if Renato is 3 or 5 years older then the other kids?
This kid doesn't deserve this..
This started because of Sporting, Benfica's rival wanted to win at all costs.. in the end Benfica still won and the kid kept on growing !
He is going to be a huge star and bayern got a few more million fans
On July 05 2016 21:20 warding wrote: People may not like the play style of Portugal vs Poland or Croatia and they may not sympathize, to put it mildly, with the likes of Pepe or Cristiano Ronaldo. However, looking at the five games so far, I don't think it can be said that Portugal were lucky to go through - no opponent so far was superior to Portugal and no game was won against the odds. Analyse the squads and Portugal has a clearly superior squad to every single opponent. Four semi-finals in five editions people.
If anything, Portugal have been unlucky: no striker has showed up since Pauleta (we're a much smaller nation than Spain, Germany, Italy, France, England, not as large a talent pool) so we're forced to play a goofy tactic with two wingers upfront, Ronaldo has missed goals where he usually scores, referees forgave a penalty in each of the Croatia and Poland games, Hungary Lamparded their way into a lucky 3-3 draw in the group stages. Had Ronaldo been his usual self in front of goal and had referees awarded those penalties, the games would have been much different.
Finally, blame the "four best 3rds go through" rule since it awards more conservative play in group stages.
Really? clearly superior squad to Croatia? I agree with the rest of your post - ronaldo has missed a couple should-be goals, you've been denied a clear penalty, you were kinda unlucky in all three group stage games. I haven't been impressed by Portugal in nearly the same way I have been by Germany or France, but from my perspective, they've kinda been a less clinical italy during game time (and more clinical during extra time and penalties).
I took the opportunity to check the transfermarkt market value of the 11+3 players each team fielded in their games:
Rui Patricio - 14M Pepe - 6M José Fonte - 5M Raphael Guerreiro - 9M Cristiano Ronaldo - 110M João Mário - 20M William Carvalho - 26M André Gomes - 20M Nani - 14.5M Cedric - 11M Adrien Silva - 18M
Danilo - 12M Renato Sanches - 20M Quaresma - 4M
Total: 289,5 M
Of course these values are not immune to criticism. Cristiano is an outlier and he may not be worth 110M at his age but he is one of top 5 footballers ever (at least). I also doubt someone would pay 50M for Modric at 30yo. Renato Sanches is valued at 20M despite just having been transferred for 35M+. Either way, when you look at each team player for player, you will find that Portugal does have a more talented and valuable squad.
The bias against this perception is that there are a lot of up and coming talents in the Portuguese team that have only come to prominence this year: Raphael Guerreiro will establish himself as a world class LB at Dortmund, Danilo, William Carvalho and João Mário should and will move on to top tier teams in the coming years and establish themselves as world class midfielders. Renato Sanches is likely to become one of the best players in the world at Bayern Munich under Ancelotti. André Gomes is rumoured to be moving to Chelsea, Barcelona or Real Madrid this year for 40M€+. Meanwhile, Pepe is actually one of the best CBs in the world but his reputation is tarnished by the fact that he's got obvious mental issues and acts like a supreme douche on the pitch.
Overall they are underperforming given what they've shown on the pitch, but do not underestimate the individual quality of the Portugal NT.
average age of those players for portugal is 26.3, average age for croatia 27.7. The croatian star players are all 28 years old or older. While I guess it's as good an attempt at giving an objective assessment of how good the players are as you can get, I don't think it factors in the rapid value deterioration of 28+ year olds. Portugal has 7 players younger than 25 of those - Croatia has 3 below 27. Still, I'm not really arguing that Croatia's squad is clearly superior - just against the notion that Portugal's squad is. I think they are very evenly matched, and in terms of individual players, only Germany, France and Spain are 'clearly superior' to either of them.
Belgium has a bunch of big name players but playing in the PL gives more fame than playing elsewhere, so I dunno if the players are actually as good as reputed.
Disclaimer: I'm not arguing to be a finicky c**t, just because I find these discussions amusing.
Looking at it with a statistical eye, what we would have to do is to understand what is the optimal valuation age and then estimate the age-adjusted discount for each age and player where we remove overvaluation due to potential and undervaluation due to old-age. Ie. a 18 year old player might be super hyped due to how much he'll be worth in the future - but what interests us is actual current value; a 31yo player may be undervalued due to the fact that his future marketable value is much lower whilehis actual current value may not have dropped much at all since his physical peak at 27-28.
The analysis is different depending on what is each teams' players' age deviation from the optimal valuation age and how different the discount is between the undervalued old players and overvalued young players. If the optimal valuation age is 26 and all Croatians are 27 years old while 50% of the Portuguese are 21 and 50% are 31, then it might be that the final adjusted valuation would favor the Portuguese because the 31 year olds are way too undervalued compared to every other age.
While we're at it, you might have to discount valuation biases due to the league the players are in. Practically all the Croatians play abroad and most in the Italian league. Many of the Portuguese still play in the Portuguese league which would undervalue them.
Anyhow, I'll concede that the Portuguese team might have an only slightly superior squad to Croatia. :D
On July 06 2016 19:10 shell wrote: What everyone is doing to Renato Sanches is a fucking disgrace.. people should be ashamed of raising doubt about this kid.
I won't say it's because of race, altho if he was white this would never happen, but watch this movie and tell me if Renato is 3 or 5 years older then the other kids?
I do because this guy meant a lot for all Benfica supporters this year and now for all portuguese thanks to these euro championships.. his 100% portuguese born and raised here, he is a fighter, a teamplayer, he is also a very hardworker.. he totally deserves this and people shouldn't be so easy to try and knock him out!
He is going to have the chance of a lifetime, playing for one of top 3 teams in the world and he doesn't deserve this, i hope all germans fans especially bayern won't be influenced by this..
EPT
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