On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote: Boring and irrelevant statistics.
A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets. B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution. C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings. D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).
As you probably will understand, it would only make sense that Terran is underrepresented if Terran was underpowered. So it doesn't explain anything if there were much fewer Terran participants. This can be a direct consequence of imbalance. The issue is that Terran is underrepresented.
There's no reason whatsoever that Terrans would suddenly become scarce after the patch due to anything but being weaker than the other races, in fact.
That assumption is false. It is like saying that black people have less documented education that white people because they are stupider by nature. Context is a necessary supplement for statistics.
It could be that less players play terran in the international scene. Or that international terrans are less mechanically skilled than their Korean counterparts. Perhaps there are a good number of international professional terrans but they participate in less tournaments overall, skewing the numbers in favor of zerg and protoss. It would take considerably more complicated statistical analysis to find proof for any of these assumptions rather than randomly picking top 8 statistics from one series of tournaments.
On August 01 2012 07:37 Detri wrote: What people seem to forget is that a lot of the best players in Korea play terran, due to boxer. They would be good with any race. Could you imagine taeja microing mutas? or storms? Or gumiho's multitasking with a warp prism and ling runbys??
what does this have to do with anything?
It has something to do with the fact, that some people justifies the current state Terran as a race solely because a few top Korean Terran players are doing well. By that logic, one could however argue that the latest Zerg buffs should be reversed, given the fact that players like Stephano, DRG and Nestea was doing just fine without Queen range buff or Overlord speed buff.
It is also funny to note how next to unknown players such as Sortof and JonnyREcco all of a sudden manages to beat players such as SaSe and most notably NaNiwa. And even though ThorZaIN did beat Sortof in the last round of the finals, they practically played even, winning three games each.
It's not just a few good Terrans. Tons of Terrans in Korea are still doing fine. Nestea/DRG weren't doing fine without the queen buff they both got eliminated in the first round of the GSL pre-queen buff. In fact the season immediately before the queen buff was the worst zerg GSL season ever as far as zerg placements. I'm pretty sure that the dreamhack that Naniwa lost to 2 random zergs was before the queen buff. Plenty of other Protoss are beating good zergs.
Even this GSL season zerg didn't dominate the way they would have if they were truly imbalanced. Also there are only 2 zergs in top 16 of OSL and they are Nestea/DRG and it doesn't look like anymore will get through. Zergs also didn't do particularly good at WCS Korea with both Nestea and Symbol losing in the qualifiers.
1. It is true that DRG did not make it past RO34 at GSL 2012 Season 2. However. You should note that he WON the previous GSL season. In addition to this, he placed second at MLG Winter Championship just four days before he lost in RO34. 2. It is true that Nestea did not live up to his usual standards at GSL 2012 Season 2, but i think it is safe to say that Nestea has been doing just fine without Zerg buffs even though every other Zerg was struggling, at almost any given time 3. NaNiwa lost to JonnyREcco and Sortof during WCS and TSL4, both of which happened this weekend
He won while being the only zerg in top 8 and one of 2 in the ro16. I also think it's obvious that Genius choked horribly in that finals. One player doing well doesn't mean a balanced game. DRG is the only player who has got a top 4 with zerg this year. Terran has had like 5 different people in the top 4 of GSL this year. Nestea has done fine without Zerg buffs but once again 1 or 2 players doing fine doesn't mean a race is balanced. I'm not referring to those losses I am just pointing out that Naniwa losing to random zergs isn't something new.
On August 01 2012 08:03 Empire.Beastyqt wrote: These statistics obviously prove nothing just like last 20 tournaments there was 1 terran in finals it proves NOTHING.
Foreigner terrans are obviously awful players (all of them) which is main reason why they cant win, besides that terran is underpresented (wonder why) which is again reason why terran never wins - not enough terran players. If foreigners stoped whining and started practicing maybe they would win something, just look in Korea everything is fine, so many terrans still dominating and I will go as far to name all of them: Taeja.
MMA, MVP, MKP are obviously whiners that got no clue about the game saying that terran is worst race and I know what they need to do, they need to make RAVENS and start making new builds, I feel like they arent innovative enough.. But yeah with all the recent terran domination (Taeja winning 1 tournament) game is fine and people need to make more ravens, because one raven will deny ALL creep spread, kill 6 queens on its own and destroy zerg economy. Raven - weapon of future.
Also 4 months of tournament results is too low sample size to prove anything.
TLDR: 1)foreigner terrans are awful 2)make ravens.
So true. Terran players are all awful, and it's just a conicidence that all the random up and coming players recently plays Z/P.
On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote: Boring and irrelevant statistics.
A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets. B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution. C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings. D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).
As you probably will understand, it would only make sense that Terran is underrepresented if Terran was underpowered. So it doesn't explain anything if there were much fewer Terran participants. This can be a direct consequence of imbalance. The issue is that Terran is underrepresented.
There's no reason whatsoever that Terrans would suddenly become scarce after the patch due to anything but being weaker than the other races, in fact.
Or that less players play terran in the international scene. Or that international terrans are less mechanically skilled than their Korean counterparts. Perhaps there are a good number of international professional terrans but they participate in less tournaments overall, skewing the numbers. It would take considerably more complicated statistical analysis to find proof for any of these assumptions rather than randomly picking top 8 statistics from one series of tournaments.
The matter of fact is that none of these explanations fit the situation, the underrepresentation was quite sudden.
And no evidence was shown to prove this, or that terran is less underrepresented in the foreign scene than pre-patch. And then we must ask: underrepresented in what sense? Less tournament placings? Less tournament participation? Shorter tournament runs? Lower winrates in all matchups? Lower winrates in one matchup?
Its not only the queen buff, but terran has always struggled in lategame against every race. Now even maps favor zergs with maphack overlord spots that requires air vision to kill. Before you could kill scouting zerglings with hellions and deny overlords scouting your main and zerg needs to make some guesses whats coming, but not anymore, they can play super greedy and safe because queens and exact scout info.
On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote: Boring and irrelevant statistics.
A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets. B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution. C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings. D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).
As you probably will understand, it would only make sense that Terran is underrepresented if Terran was underpowered. So it doesn't explain anything if there were much fewer Terran participants. This can be a direct consequence of imbalance. The issue is that Terran is underrepresented.
There's no reason whatsoever that Terrans would suddenly become scarce after the patch due to anything but being weaker than the other races, in fact.
Or that less players play terran in the international scene. Or that international terrans are less mechanically skilled than their Korean counterparts. Perhaps there are a good number of international professional terrans but they participate in less tournaments overall, skewing the numbers. It would take considerably more complicated statistical analysis to find proof for any of these assumptions rather than randomly picking top 8 statistics from one series of tournaments.
The matter of fact is that none of these explanations fit the situation, the underrepresentation was quite sudden.
And no evidence was shown to prove this, or that terran is less underrepresented in the foreign scene than pre-patch. And then we must ask: underrepresented in what sense? Less tournament placings? Less tournament participation? Shorter tournament runs? Lower winrates in all matchups? Lower winrates in one matchup?
This argument is in fact simple to solve if we are able to prove that despite being underrepresented, Terrans are outperforming their representating in the WCS, and this I believe would be easy to show, and is something I started to show on the first page.
On August 01 2012 07:31 MCXD wrote: This is actually misleading, because terran is very underrepresented in america and europe (esp at high levels). Regardless of balance, it's expected statistically that there would be less terrans. For that reason alone, the statistics here can't be trusted to make the point that terran is underpowered.
Furthermore, if you look at korean matchup statistics recently, everything is actually pretty close to 50%.
Can you prove that there are less terrans? Remember that most korean tournament results are gsl-made, in which the progamers prepare for a matchup, and perform snipe strategys. That is actually misleading.
No, as I don't have access to the ladder data on that, but practically everyone I've seen commenting on race distribution on ladders in NA and Europe has long talked about how few terrans there are compared to protoss and zerg. All races.
On August 01 2012 07:37 Detri wrote: What people seem to forget is that a lot of the best players in Korea play terran, due to boxer. They would be good with any race. Could you imagine taeja microing mutas? or storms? Or gumiho's multitasking with a warp prism and ling runbys??
what does this have to do with anything?
It has something to do with the fact, that some people justifies the current state Terran as a race solely because a few top Korean Terran players are doing well. By that logic, one could however argue that the latest Zerg buffs should be reversed, given the fact that players like Stephano, DRG and Nestea was doing just fine without Queen range buff or Overlord speed buff.
It is also funny to note how next to unknown players such as Sortof and JonnyREcco all of a sudden manages to beat players such as SaSe and most notably NaNiwa. And even though ThorZaIN did beat Sortof in the last round of the finals, they practically played even, winning three games each.
It's not just a few good Terrans. Tons of Terrans in Korea are still doing fine. Nestea/DRG weren't doing fine without the queen buff they both got eliminated in the first round of the GSL pre-queen buff. In fact the season immediately before the queen buff was the worst zerg GSL season ever as far as zerg placements. I'm pretty sure that the dreamhack that Naniwa lost to 2 random zergs was before the queen buff. Plenty of other Protoss are beating good zergs.
Even this GSL season zerg didn't dominate the way they would have if they were truly imbalanced. Also there are only 2 zergs in top 16 of OSL and they are Nestea/DRG and it doesn't look like anymore will get through. Zergs also didn't do particularly good at WCS Korea with both Nestea and Symbol losing in the qualifiers.
1. It is true that DRG did not make it past RO34 at GSL 2012 Season 2. However. You should note that he WON the previous GSL season. In addition to this, he placed second at MLG Winter Championship just four days before he lost in RO34. 2. It is true that Nestea did not live up to his usual standards at GSL 2012 Season 2, but i think it is safe to say that Nestea has been doing just fine without Zerg buffs even though every other Zerg was struggling, at almost any given time 3. NaNiwa lost to JonnyREcco and Sortof during WCS and TSL4, both of which happened this weekend
He won while being the only zerg in top 8 and one of 2 in the ro16. I also think it's obvious that Genius choked horribly in that finals. One player doing well doesn't mean a balanced game. DRG is the only player who has got a top 4 with zerg this year. Terran has had like 5 different people in the top 4 of GSL this year. Nestea has done fine without Zerg buffs but once again 1 or 2 players doing fine doesn't mean a race is balanced. I'm not referring to those losses I am just pointing out that Naniwa losing to random zergs isn't something new.
That is exactly my point. One player doing well does not prove anything. Just like TaeJa's win at MLG does not prove that Terran is fine.
It does seem lately that terran is a bit underpowered. It's hard to gauge this too well from numbers and similar stats like these because you can't account for differences in popularity of races as those numbers are simply lacking.
People simply bashing stuff like this and referring to win rates only are shortsighted too. Win rates from tournaments with heavy qualification procedures like WCS or GSL mean NOTHING. Even if the game was severely unbalanced those win rates are 50% on average over the long run because the qualification procedures even out the playing field... A weak race would simply be underrepresented and those that do qualify will do as well as other races on average..
So combined with these stats given here you would need the general popularity of terran on the ladders.
Overall tournaments are just a pretty poor way to gauge balance anyway, so many factors that change from tournament to tournament that make it far more difficult to judge the stats than simply using ladder stats. One tournament has heavy preparation others do not, some have qualification procedures others simply invite or balance racial presence, map pools differ etc. Ladder stats seem to indicate a slightly underpowered terran at the moment which i'm inclined to believe, the patch is also too recent for the metagame to settle I think as especially TvZ is seeing plenty changes now (raven/bc endgame, greedier play etc. etc.)
On August 01 2012 07:37 Detri wrote: What people seem to forget is that a lot of the best players in Korea play terran, due to boxer. They would be good with any race. Could you imagine taeja microing mutas? or storms? Or gumiho's multitasking with a warp prism and ling runbys??
what does this have to do with anything?
It has something to do with the fact, that some people justifies the current state Terran as a race solely because a few top Korean Terran players are doing well. By that logic, one could however argue that the latest Zerg buffs should be reversed, given the fact that players like Stephano, DRG and Nestea was doing just fine without Queen range buff or Overlord speed buff.
It is also funny to note how next to unknown players such as Sortof and JonnyREcco all of a sudden manages to beat players such as SaSe and most notably NaNiwa. And even though ThorZaIN did beat Sortof in the last round of the finals, they practically played even, winning three games each.
It's not just a few good Terrans. Tons of Terrans in Korea are still doing fine. Nestea/DRG weren't doing fine without the queen buff they both got eliminated in the first round of the GSL pre-queen buff. In fact the season immediately before the queen buff was the worst zerg GSL season ever as far as zerg placements. I'm pretty sure that the dreamhack that Naniwa lost to 2 random zergs was before the queen buff. Plenty of other Protoss are beating good zergs.
Even this GSL season zerg didn't dominate the way they would have if they were truly imbalanced. Also there are only 2 zergs in top 16 of OSL and they are Nestea/DRG and it doesn't look like anymore will get through. Zergs also didn't do particularly good at WCS Korea with both Nestea and Symbol losing in the qualifiers.
1. It is true that DRG did not make it past RO34 at GSL 2012 Season 2. However. You should note that he WON the previous GSL season. In addition to this, he placed second at MLG Winter Championship just four days before he lost in RO34. 2. It is true that Nestea did not live up to his usual standards at GSL 2012 Season 2, but i think it is safe to say that Nestea has been doing just fine without Zerg buffs even though every other Zerg was struggling, at almost any given time 3. NaNiwa lost to JonnyREcco and Sortof during WCS and TSL4, both of which happened this weekend
He won while being the only zerg in top 8 and one of 2 in the ro16. I also think it's obvious that Genius choked horribly in that finals. One player doing well doesn't mean a balanced game. DRG is the only player who has got a top 4 with zerg this year. Terran has had like 5 different people in the top 4 of GSL this year. Nestea has done fine without Zerg buffs but once again 1 or 2 players doing fine doesn't mean a race is balanced. I'm not referring to those losses I am just pointing out that Naniwa losing to random zergs isn't something new.
That is exactly my point. One player doing well does not prove anything. Just like TaeJa's win at MLG does not prove that Terran is fine.
No but Terran doing well in every level of GSL does. They have had 5 different players get a ro4 this year. Zerg has had one. Terran has had 8 ro8 placements this year. Zerg has had 4 and 2 of those were by DongRaeGu. There are tons of Terrans doing well. Taeja won MLG. Gumiho all-killed Slayers in GSTL finals. Tons of Terrans went through Code A to get Code S. 6 Terrans qualified for WCS Korea.
Also MLGs have actually been pretty balanced as well. The MLG Spring Championship was the most balanced ro16 possible. It was 6 5 5. and then the top 6 was 2 2 2. Then the most recent Arena was of course a TvP finals and Zerg was actually underrepresented in top 16.
On August 01 2012 08:31 Aquila- wrote: "game is balanced at the highest level, look at koreans" "these statistics don't say anything and can't be trusted"
BULLSHIT
Terran is so severly underpowered right now and everyone knows it. How many evidences do you want just admit it...
Terran is underpowered, yeah, maybe. But people are using crooked, untrustworthy statistics to show it, instead of talking about the game design lol.
You can't shove those statistics in people's faces and say "hey look terran is winning less, must be underpowered" when there is a lot of other factors involved, most notably of which, is the fact that NA/EU has less terrans to begin with.
Point is, discussion involving these statistics is silly. It doesn't prove any point, REGARDLESS of whether terran is or isn't actually underpowered.
On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote: Boring and irrelevant statistics.
A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets. B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution. C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings. D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).
As you probably will understand, it would only make sense that Terran is underrepresented if Terran was underpowered. So it doesn't explain anything if there were much fewer Terran participants. This can be a direct consequence of imbalance. The issue is that Terran is underrepresented.
There's no reason whatsoever that Terrans would suddenly become scarce after the patch due to anything but being weaker than the other races, in fact.
Or that less players play terran in the international scene. Or that international terrans are less mechanically skilled than their Korean counterparts. Perhaps there are a good number of international professional terrans but they participate in less tournaments overall, skewing the numbers. It would take considerably more complicated statistical analysis to find proof for any of these assumptions rather than randomly picking top 8 statistics from one series of tournaments.
The matter of fact is that none of these explanations fit the situation, the underrepresentation was quite sudden.
And no evidence was shown to prove this, or that terran is less underrepresented in the foreign scene than pre-patch. And then we must ask: underrepresented in what sense? Less tournament placings? Less tournament participation? Shorter tournament runs? Lower winrates in all matchups? Lower winrates in one matchup?
Obviously, fewer Terrans than Protoss and Zergs in all the stages of almost every recent tournament.
And yet as I mentioned before, this has been observed as a constant phenomenon in the EU/NA scene before the patch.
On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote: Boring and irrelevant statistics.
A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets. B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution. C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings. D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).
As you probably will understand, it would only make sense that Terran is underrepresented if Terran was underpowered. So it doesn't explain anything if there were much fewer Terran participants. This can be a direct consequence of imbalance. The issue is that Terran is underrepresented.
There's no reason whatsoever that Terrans would suddenly become scarce after the patch due to anything but being weaker than the other races, in fact.
Or that less players play terran in the international scene. Or that international terrans are less mechanically skilled than their Korean counterparts. Perhaps there are a good number of international professional terrans but they participate in less tournaments overall, skewing the numbers. It would take considerably more complicated statistical analysis to find proof for any of these assumptions rather than randomly picking top 8 statistics from one series of tournaments.
The matter of fact is that none of these explanations fit the situation, the underrepresentation was quite sudden.
And no evidence was shown to prove this, or that terran is less underrepresented in the foreign scene than pre-patch. And then we must ask: underrepresented in what sense? Less tournament placings? Less tournament participation? Shorter tournament runs? Lower winrates in all matchups? Lower winrates in one matchup?
This argument is in fact simple to solve if we are able to prove that despite being underrepresented, Terrans are outperforming their representating in the WCS, and this I believe would be easy to show, and is something I started to show on the first page.
On August 01 2012 07:47 FliedLice wrote: The Queen buff really fucked Germany up, look at all those Protoss players!
... by this logic.. terrans was winning only because of hellions harras yes ? Maby terrans are to lazy to add 3-4 maruders to hellion mix and make harras then , focus queens by maruders.. like koreans do that..
Well, no offense, but I'd say most of Terrans (at least in PvT) only knows how to stim and make vikings against colossi without a single micro. I don't think there is any big balance issues atm, not going to argue tho.
On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote: Boring and irrelevant statistics.
A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets. B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution. C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings. D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).
As you probably will understand, it would only make sense that Terran is underrepresented if Terran was underpowered. So it doesn't explain anything if there were much fewer Terran participants. This can be a direct consequence of imbalance. The issue is that Terran is underrepresented.
There's no reason whatsoever that Terrans would suddenly become scarce after the patch due to anything but being weaker than the other races, in fact.
Or that less players play terran in the international scene. Or that international terrans are less mechanically skilled than their Korean counterparts. Perhaps there are a good number of international professional terrans but they participate in less tournaments overall, skewing the numbers. It would take considerably more complicated statistical analysis to find proof for any of these assumptions rather than randomly picking top 8 statistics from one series of tournaments.
The matter of fact is that none of these explanations fit the situation, the underrepresentation was quite sudden.
And no evidence was shown to prove this, or that terran is less underrepresented in the foreign scene than pre-patch. And then we must ask: underrepresented in what sense? Less tournament placings? Less tournament participation? Shorter tournament runs? Lower winrates in all matchups? Lower winrates in one matchup?
This argument is in fact simple to solve if we are able to prove that despite being underrepresented, Terrans are outperforming their representating in the WCS, and this I believe would be easy to show, and is something I started to show on the first page.
Hmmm I must have skipped that post.
I've edited it a couple of times. One key edit is that 24% of the players in the WCS European qualifiers were Terran, yet 25% of the players who made the finals were Terran.
EPT
