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WCS Win Rates - Page 5

Forum Index > SC2 General
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CosmicSpiral
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States15275 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-07-31 23:50:22
July 31 2012 23:41 GMT
#81
On August 01 2012 08:05 Grapefruit wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 01 2012 08:01 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 01 2012 07:58 Grapefruit wrote:
On August 01 2012 07:50 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 01 2012 07:47 Jombozeus wrote:
On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Boring and irrelevant statistics.

A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets.
B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution.
C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings.
D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).

The creator of the chart is a hack. He is well-known in the Reddit community for whining about terran.


Looks like you made all the assumptions and drew all the conclusions. At no point did he explain the statistics. The bias is actually quite hilarious.


You're not very intelligent. My assumptions about his assumptions are true, since they are the only ways in which his statistics can be taken seriously. And since he is well-known for complaining about terran under-representation in tournaments (and making posts about statistics to whine about it), it's obvious what the point of his post is.



3 things.

First off, I didn't make this image.

Second, this is pure data without analysis or anything.

Third, stop being a dick for now reason, not cool.


http://www.reddit.com/user/dv0rakftw

"48% of tourneys with 0 or 1 Terran and the same only for 7% Protoss and 4% Zerg is not massaging numbers.

IT'S NOTICING SOMETHING THAT IS FUCKED UP."

"The guys at Blizzard don't seem to understand it. I was done for at least a month, maybe longer, but every time I try to get out they drag me back in.

You're tired of the graphs? I'm more tired of the shitty TvZ games. You get dozens of new threads here every day. I get to look at brackets hoping Terrans get to dodge as many Zerg as possible. (I will however do tomorrow's post on Premier Tournaments as just text because Liquipedia's old results didn't have standard formatting.)

But good catch on me forgetting to mention that previous imbalance is no justification for current imbalance."

"Please skip the "more time for meta" and "things are fine in Korea" comments. We've heard it already. I also know TaeJa won at MLG and GuMiho won GSTL with an all-kill.

This isn't to say Terrans can't win. It's harder than it should be. TvZ has become less fun to watch. Even less so to play.

People who want to accuse me of cherry-picking data should also explain why Terrans are under-represented in GM on every server including Korea and why in July's TLPD stats, Terrans win less than 40% of TvZ matches on half the maps which have significant numbers. And please note I could have made it look even worse for Terran by taking out the three pre-patch events.

I will do a separate post, probably tomorrow, on Premier tournaments but I wanted to look at Top 8 in Blizzard's own worldwide tournaments.

To recap the infograph:

Almost half of WCS tournaments had one or no Terrans in the Top 8.

Almost half and just over a third of WCS tournaments had four or more Protoss and Zerg players respectively in the Top 8 while not a single one had more than three Terrans.

If there is a job available at Blizzard as Balance Statistician I am available. Please consider this and previous posts like this as my resume demonstrating my ability to count."

Pure data without analysis, right? Unbiased gathering of data right?


Jesus fucking Christ, are you insane or something?

What the actual fuck? Stop lashing out so hard. I am NOT this person, neither did I post ANY of his opinions. All I did was post this image, which is simply a collection of data.

Why does this bother you that much?!


I am simply outlining posts that the creator of these statistics has posted within his own thread. It's not hard to figure out why he came up with those particular statistics.

Of course you're not an asshole or anything. But it is somewhat irresponsible to post someone else's statistics without linking the source, verifying their authenticity, or verifying whether proper procedures were used. God knows few other people will do it.

It bothers me when biased, incorrectly complied statistics are posted and people take them seriously. Like I said, most people will not bother to check them and things like this inevitably stir up shit. Even worse people might take them as gospel. If I posted rumors that your mom was impregnated by a stranger I would get blasted, despite the fact that someone else invented the rumor. Why? Because I should be smart enough to check out its legitimacy first before putting it in the public sphere.
WriterWovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen.
Edahspmal
Profile Joined October 2010
United States156 Posts
July 31 2012 23:43 GMT
#82
I think this should have been posted in the balance whine thread instead of starting a second one.
iAmJeffReY
Profile Joined August 2010
United States4262 Posts
July 31 2012 23:45 GMT
#83
Not that surprising of a graph. Lot of protoss and zerg doing well lately.
Unbiased biased terran abuser Jeffrey. Sorry for the rage, friend!
Diizzy
Profile Joined August 2011
United States828 Posts
July 31 2012 23:48 GMT
#84
good. no terran impress me lately except taeja, and maybe some kespa terrans. actually using micro to win late game.
Kaitokid
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Germany1327 Posts
July 31 2012 23:49 GMT
#85
On August 01 2012 08:45 iAmJeffReY wrote:
Not that surprising of a graph. Lot of protoss and zerg doing well lately.


less Terrans=more players from the other 2 races doing well. however as someone already pointed out the Terrans who did attend WCS did well in general... Terrans did better than P/Z players considering their little number, but I guess almost everyone here tries as hard as he can to ignore that.
Zane
Profile Joined January 2011
Romania3916 Posts
July 31 2012 23:50 GMT
#86
To all the people saying terran was underrepresented to begin with: the fact that zerg and to a lesser extent protoss were underrepresented in Korea didn't stop people bitching again and again about GOMTvT. Even now you'll see that mentioned a lot of times. So people bitching about terran in WCS shouldn't surprise anyone.
On August 01 2012 08:40 arew wrote:
Well, no offense, but I'd say most of Terrans (at least in PvT) only knows how to stim and make vikings against colossi without a single micro. I don't think there is any big balance issues atm, not going to argue tho.

Oooook.
[Azn]Nada
Profile Joined April 2009
United States275 Posts
July 31 2012 23:53 GMT
#87
Lmao, as a t-->z, great advice for other terrans: Switch to zerg and call it a day. You'll go up at least 1 league within 2 weeks, and you'll probably never get nerfed. No more trying new strats constantly, or having to use increasingly weak units. Saves a lot of time, tears and blood pressure. Good stuff
Grapefruit
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany439 Posts
July 31 2012 23:56 GMT
#88
On August 01 2012 08:40 BronzeKnee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 01 2012 08:36 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:27 BronzeKnee wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:24 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:23 monkybone wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:22 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:00 monkybone wrote:
On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Boring and irrelevant statistics.

A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets.
B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution.
C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings.
D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).


As you probably will understand, it would only make sense that Terran is underrepresented if Terran was underpowered. So it doesn't explain anything if there were much fewer Terran participants. This can be a direct consequence of imbalance. The issue is that Terran is underrepresented.

There's no reason whatsoever that Terrans would suddenly become scarce after the patch due to anything but being weaker than the other races, in fact.


Or that less players play terran in the international scene. Or that international terrans are less mechanically skilled than their Korean counterparts. Perhaps there are a good number of international professional terrans but they participate in less tournaments overall, skewing the numbers. It would take considerably more complicated statistical analysis to find proof for any of these assumptions rather than randomly picking top 8 statistics from one series of tournaments.


The matter of fact is that none of these explanations fit the situation, the underrepresentation was quite sudden.


And no evidence was shown to prove this, or that terran is less underrepresented in the foreign scene than pre-patch. And then we must ask: underrepresented in what sense? Less tournament placings? Less tournament participation? Shorter tournament runs? Lower winrates in all matchups? Lower winrates in one matchup?


This argument is in fact simple to solve if we are able to prove that despite being underrepresented, Terrans are outperforming their representating in the WCS, and this I believe would be easy to show, and is something I started to show on the first page.


Hmmm I must have skipped that post.


I've edited it a couple of times. One key edit is that 24% of the players in the WCS European qualifiers were Terran, yet 25% of the players who made the finals were Terran.


Oh boy, this is tough...

You know, you're telling people to not be biased but on the other hand you completely disregard that the WCS wasn't an invitational tourney, so the low amount of Terrans might(!!!) already be an indicator that Terran is under-performing and on top of that you chose to use the percentages of the finals instead of the winners, because if you did that your argument would be invalidated as only 22% of the winners are Terrans.
Starcraft 2 is funny, everybody picks the race, which he considers to be the weakest. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Imzoo
Profile Joined June 2012
132 Posts
July 31 2012 23:57 GMT
#89
On August 01 2012 08:40 arew wrote:
Well, no offense, but I'd say most of Terrans (at least in PvT) only knows how to stim and make vikings against colossi without a single micro. I don't think there is any big balance issues atm, not going to argue tho.



You made the day of all terrans in the world, thanks.
( bush
Profile Joined April 2011
321 Posts
August 01 2012 00:04 GMT
#90
On August 01 2012 08:40 arew wrote:
Well, no offense, but I'd say most of Terrans (at least in PvT) only knows how to stim and make vikings against colossi without a single micro. I don't think there is any big balance issues atm, not going to argue tho.


ok tell me more about how good are your storms
oo
FinalForm
Profile Joined August 2010
United States450 Posts
August 01 2012 00:06 GMT
#91
Already telling me what we already know. Unless you're a total baller (mkp,taeja,hack,keen, or on NHS), then ur going to get facerolled by zerg and protoss quite often.

Also very rare to fund such thing as an "up-and-coming" terran.
EggYsc2
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
620 Posts
August 01 2012 00:08 GMT
#92
seems balanced
Deckkie
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands1595 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-01 00:11:23
August 01 2012 00:10 GMT
#93
On August 01 2012 08:49 Kaitokid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 01 2012 08:45 iAmJeffReY wrote:
Not that surprising of a graph. Lot of protoss and zerg doing well lately.


less Terrans=more players from the other 2 races doing well. however as someone already pointed out the Terrans who did attend WCS did well in general... Terrans did better than P/Z players considering their little number, but I guess almost everyone here tries as hard as he can to ignore that.


You could also wonder why there are more P and Z players qualifying.
We know that Terran is the least played race in the west, and that this is even worse in the higher levels.
But with the amount of players playing, statisicly, there should be a equal representation on the tournament, relative to the ladder.
This however does not seem to be the case.


On August 01 2012 09:06 FinalForm wrote:
Already telling me what we already know. Unless you're a total baller (mkp,taeja,hack,keen, or on NHS), then ur going to get facerolled by zerg and protoss quite often.

Also very rare to fund such thing as an "up-and-coming" terran.


MouzMarine is a 14/15 year old up and coming Terran
Always look on the bright side of life
Grapefruit
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany439 Posts
August 01 2012 00:13 GMT
#94
Pretty funny how many people consider "There are less Terrans" to be a valid answer, without questioning why there are less Terrans?

Seriously, why are there less and less Terrans the higher you go on the ladder when it was totally balanced out at launch? Why?
Starcraft 2 is funny, everybody picks the race, which he considers to be the weakest. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Diavlo
Profile Joined July 2011
Belgium2915 Posts
August 01 2012 00:13 GMT
#95
On August 01 2012 08:56 Grapefruit wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 01 2012 08:40 BronzeKnee wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:36 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:27 BronzeKnee wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:24 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:23 monkybone wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:22 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:00 monkybone wrote:
On August 01 2012 07:43 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Boring and irrelevant statistics.

A. No attempts to determine how many terrans actually participated in the tournaments, and no breakdown in how terrans dissipate through the brackets.
B. No comparison with past national tournaments in terms of race distribution.
C. The false assumption that terran had equal representation prior to the queen patch. Terran "dominance" in the first half of 2011 was strictly limited to Korea; terran has always been underrepresented in the international scene in terms of tournament placings.
D. The false assumption that every country has equal representation in both race and skill (which is the only way these numbers could be taken seriously in the first place).


As you probably will understand, it would only make sense that Terran is underrepresented if Terran was underpowered. So it doesn't explain anything if there were much fewer Terran participants. This can be a direct consequence of imbalance. The issue is that Terran is underrepresented.

There's no reason whatsoever that Terrans would suddenly become scarce after the patch due to anything but being weaker than the other races, in fact.


Or that less players play terran in the international scene. Or that international terrans are less mechanically skilled than their Korean counterparts. Perhaps there are a good number of international professional terrans but they participate in less tournaments overall, skewing the numbers. It would take considerably more complicated statistical analysis to find proof for any of these assumptions rather than randomly picking top 8 statistics from one series of tournaments.


The matter of fact is that none of these explanations fit the situation, the underrepresentation was quite sudden.


And no evidence was shown to prove this, or that terran is less underrepresented in the foreign scene than pre-patch. And then we must ask: underrepresented in what sense? Less tournament placings? Less tournament participation? Shorter tournament runs? Lower winrates in all matchups? Lower winrates in one matchup?


This argument is in fact simple to solve if we are able to prove that despite being underrepresented, Terrans are outperforming their representating in the WCS, and this I believe would be easy to show, and is something I started to show on the first page.


Hmmm I must have skipped that post.


I've edited it a couple of times. One key edit is that 24% of the players in the WCS European qualifiers were Terran, yet 25% of the players who made the finals were Terran.


Oh boy, this is tough...

You know, you're telling people to not be biased but on the other hand you completely disregard that the WCS wasn't an invitational tourney, so the low amount of Terrans might(!!!) already be an indicator that Terran is under-performing and on top of that you chose to use the percentages of the finals instead of the winners, because if you did that your argument would be invalidated as only 22% of the winners are Terrans.

It would be a valid point if Terran became less represented since the patch. But if you look at WCG 2011, non invitational dreamhacks, playhem dailies,etc, the number of terrans was only slightly higher in 2010/2011 than it is now.

Terran is the race that requires the most multitasking which benefits the most of practice, considering how much foreigners practice, it's not that hard to see why terrans are not as successful outside of Korea.
"I don't know how many years on this Earth I got left. I'm gonna get real weird with it."
CosmicSpiral
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States15275 Posts
August 01 2012 00:15 GMT
#96
On August 01 2012 09:10 Deckkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 01 2012 08:49 Kaitokid wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:45 iAmJeffReY wrote:
Not that surprising of a graph. Lot of protoss and zerg doing well lately.


less Terrans=more players from the other 2 races doing well. however as someone already pointed out the Terrans who did attend WCS did well in general... Terrans did better than P/Z players considering their little number, but I guess almost everyone here tries as hard as he can to ignore that.


You could also wonder why there are more P and Z players qualifying.
We know that Terran is the least played race in the west, and that this is even worse in the higher levels.
But with the amount of players playing, statisicly, there should be a equal representation on the tournament, relative to the ladder.
This however does not seem to be the case.


Show nested quote +
On August 01 2012 09:06 FinalForm wrote:
Already telling me what we already know. Unless you're a total baller (mkp,taeja,hack,keen, or on NHS), then ur going to get facerolled by zerg and protoss quite often.

Also very rare to fund such thing as an "up-and-coming" terran.


MouzMarine is a 14/15 year old up and coming Terran


WCS qualifications are not determined by ladder, so there is no correlation between the two.
WriterWovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen.
pOnarreT
Profile Joined March 2012
155 Posts
August 01 2012 00:15 GMT
#97
On August 01 2012 09:06 FinalForm wrote:
Already telling me what we already know. Unless you're a total baller (mkp,taeja,hack,keen, or on NHS), then ur going to get facerolled by zerg and protoss quite often.

Also very rare to fund such thing as an "up-and-coming" terran.


I prefer it that way. Balanced in highest levels, even though not so much in lower levels. The only points I see why you would consider balancing in the lower levels are marketing-related stuff. In lower levels, there are many things that are hard to hold like cannon rush, 3 rax-stim, 6 pool, etc. but it shouldn't be the basis of balance because if you have enough skill, there are ways to overcome these problems.

So unless the problem exists in the highest of levels, I think i'd say that players in the lower levels should just acquire more skill.

+ Show Spoiler +
But I do think zerg late game is hard to stop in the highest of levels
forsooth
Profile Joined February 2011
United States3648 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-01 00:16:54
August 01 2012 00:16 GMT
#98
I find the doublethink from a lot of the people on TL interesting. On the one hand, Terran was obviously OP based on GSL racial balance last year and it was in no way the case that Korean Terrans were simply better than their Zerg and Protoss counterparts. At the same time, Zerg and Protoss completely dominated the foreign scene. Clearly the foreign Terrans were just unbelievably awful and the players of the other races so amazingly good that even the game being completely Terran favored couldn't stop their genius and talent from winning the day.

Patches happen, Terran representation in foreign tourneys gets even worse, but don't worry guys it's still totally fine because like 4 guys in Korea are still doing okay.
JJH777
Profile Joined January 2011
United States4420 Posts
August 01 2012 00:17 GMT
#99
On August 01 2012 09:16 forsooth wrote:

Patches happen, Terran representation in foreign tourneys gets even worse, but don't worry guys it's still totally fine because like 4 guys in Korea are still doing okay.


If by 4 you mean 30 or so then yeah.
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5225 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-01 00:19:29
August 01 2012 00:18 GMT
#100
On August 01 2012 09:10 Deckkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 01 2012 08:49 Kaitokid wrote:
On August 01 2012 08:45 iAmJeffReY wrote:
Not that surprising of a graph. Lot of protoss and zerg doing well lately.


less Terrans=more players from the other 2 races doing well. however as someone already pointed out the Terrans who did attend WCS did well in general... Terrans did better than P/Z players considering their little number, but I guess almost everyone here tries as hard as he can to ignore that.


You could also wonder why there are more P and Z players qualifying.
We know that Terran is the least played race in the west, and that this is even worse in the higher levels.
But with the amount of players playing, statisicly, there should be a equal representation on the tournament, relative to the ladder.
This however does not seem to be the case.


Show nested quote +
On August 01 2012 09:06 FinalForm wrote:
Already telling me what we already know. Unless you're a total baller (mkp,taeja,hack,keen, or on NHS), then ur going to get facerolled by zerg and protoss quite often.

Also very rare to fund such thing as an "up-and-coming" terran.


MouzMarine is a 14/15 year old up and coming Terran


http://www.sc2ranks.com/stats/race/eu/1

26.2% of the players on master ladder in EU are Terran. 25% (8/32) of the players who made the continental finals were Terran. The closest percentages to 26.2% other than 25% based on 32 man pool are 21.8% (7/32) and 28.1% (9/32).

I'd say Terran is as close to perfectly represented as can be.

I couldn't do the same for SA and NA since they play on the same ladder, yet have two different continental finals.
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