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On March 07 2024 14:08 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 14:00 CopCake wrote:On March 07 2024 13:54 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:It bothers me that slam makes this post On March 07 2024 13:20 Alakaslam wrote:On March 07 2024 12:45 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 12:41 DarthPunk wrote:
why did mafia not shoot slam, or even roleblock him? My current hypothesis is they have a framer and felt good about him checking me God damn it, he is good, he has me wifoming myself to death. I am almost considering unvote And then copcake starts pouring on the pressure. Like the only way Oats survives the day if he's scum is if his team can somehow get people to doubt the check. It doesn't matter the reasons for the doubt but enough people overthink a red check, oats could wiggle out. I ask those questions to clear every possible scenario. But Slam/Oats mafia together is not happening. Slam’s choice of Oats seemed weird but I liked Slam’s answer. It makes sense and fits his persona. (Even tho I dont think Oats was being pedantic) Besides Slam doing whole “i am a lying cop” doesnt fit his personality either. Then why are you having this conversation. This is really a pretty binary situation, we lynch oats. He flips miller/scum. We move on. He flips town, we have a discussion on D3 that you're trying to have right now. This theorycrafting you're doing is unproductive and gives a red check (WHO IS STATISTICALLY MOST LIKELY SCUM) a chance to escape. Before the NK, there are 19 people left, I'm bad at math so I used an internet calculator and maybe I set the equation up wrong but the probability of slam checking someone AND the probability of them being framed/the miller is 0.025% + Show Spoiler +(I think that's a %, I'm ready to get flamed by people who actually do math to tell me I'm wrong). Me personally, I'm taking that every time.
That’s wrong lol what?
Assuming 1 miller and a framer, chances are
1/16 + 1/13 ASSUMING framer is completely random
13%
What is this ridiculous math argument tbh
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Okay that mz post just triggered me so hard like what in the actual fuck was that.
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Okay so I was quoting a bunch of mz posts but I fucked up somewhere and the post is gone.
Anyway let me try again
On March 05 2024 00:59 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2024 18:28 marvellosity wrote:On March 04 2024 12:32 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 DarthPunk wrote:
If we vote for the tip top town to be mayor, why can't we trust them with a vig shot?
Sure make suggestions and stuff, but I know if I was the mayor I am just going to back myself, because I know I am town and can make a smart shot.
But I don't know if you're town and I'm still not trusting my tip top town with a shot on D1. Sorry MZ, you’d trust a collective town with all sorts of levels of play, and containing multiple mafia, to make a better choice than your best town read? On D1? Yes. Outside of people like Ver or Ace or incognito, I don't think there's anyone on TL who I'd trust over my own reads on D1. I know trfel and I kinda beat the whole mayor kill thing to death in the first few pages but I just think using it as a town double lynch has a way higher chance of hitting scum than one guy taking a gut shot.
So mz here says that he trusts his own reads above everyone else in the game but then somehow twists that to having town choose the mayor kill being ideal which would give mz the benefit of mayor without the drawbacks of the responsibility to actually carry out the kill. Scummy
On March 05 2024 11:09 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 06:45 sandroba wrote:
I mean I can see you not confident rayn is town, being maybe null on trfel and leaning scum on marv. But pushing to lynch into these 3 now is just ridiculous as town, you are sowing doubt and with no actual town goal. I'm pretty convinced koshi is scum Is he scum or frustrated by the mason circle and trying to force a case to justify his emotions?
Mz then goes through koshi and flip flops a couple of posts about koshi and right after that does this weird defending post to Sandro where it seems like he has a really firm townread on koshi which wasn’t a natural progression. He does this earlier with dmb too, in a very unnatural way.
MZ also spends most of the day tunneling copcake and writing posts that he never follows up on about the people that “thought vivax was town but didn’t want him to be mayor”
However come to right after the lynch, mz posts this
On March 06 2024 12:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 12:15 Vivax wrote:On March 06 2024 12:14 CopCake wrote:On March 06 2024 12:12 DarthPunk wrote:On March 06 2024 12:12 CopCake wrote:
In before, cake why were you so sure Tfrel was town? Only mafia can be like that 🧟♀️
I wasnt sure, but I stated why Tfrel is a good player AND it was probably his real birthday today, we saw a birthday cake in his username and he said he was unaware, so if he id mia maybe it is because of the celebration. You wasted your vote, so you can't be mad if you are town. I didnt wasted my vote, I was sleeping. And spent yesterday part of the day praising Tfrel. You saying this is unfair. And a bad player. You put your alarm at 1 minute after deadline ? lmfao I missed this, I had the exact same thought. I always hate when people come strolling into the thread after a lynch and talk about how bad everyone was for lynching a townie when their vote is on some rando with no real chance of dying and they weren't around at the deadline.
As if the person he’s talking about isn’t his top scumread throughout day 1 and just some rando. Again makes no sense for a townie to think like this.
On March 07 2024 11:06 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
OK I'm caught up. No way scum shoots me with everyone who decided it was time for the D2 MZ scum read a little early but in case someone was inspired to vigi me I've got the following for scum in order of confidence:
JSL for stuff I've previously posted about
VE for completely fucking off from the game when the pressure let up from him
TTS for also completely fucking off
Marv based on vibes and his refusal to interact with the thread outside of the mason group.
JAT (but this is a weak read since my vote on him was more because I thought he was scummier, worth a revisit for me)
I'm no longer scumreading cop but I just wish she would answer my questions about JSL
Town reads who I'm never gonna lynch are:
Sandroba
Vivax
DP
Koshi
Randomly now townreads her even though he previously said how he hates her play, there’s no explanation here as to why he flips.
Overall, it just doesn’t seem like mz has natural progressions and is not trying to find mafia
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On March 07 2024 14:32 Alakaslam wrote:
Oats is right on those probabilities, so yeah 1.3% or about 1 in 80.
Not 13%, that is 1 in 8 which is clearly better odds than either of them occurring.
You add them together because they are independent events..
The sole probability of me being Miller is higher than 1/80 so how does a second possible event make it lower
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On March 07 2024 14:19 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 14:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
Okay that mz post just triggered me so hard like what in the actual fuck was that. Which one?
The one where he tried to justify his vote on me by saying it was some absurd probability chance that I’m town and got red checked
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In all honesty, what do y’all think the math is?
Like actually do the math
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The reason I’m more concerned than in a normal game is that in a normal game this is a 1 for 1 so whatever but there’s a really good chance in this game that mafia manage to swindle the slam lynch next which would absolutely kill the game
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On March 07 2024 16:58 CopCake wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 16:56 Oatsmaster wrote:
In all honesty, what do y’all think the math is?
Like actually do the math But Slam is not the type of pull “the big games”, specially with the things going around in his irl.
If this means that you think slam is cop then yes I agree
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On March 07 2024 16:57 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 16:56 Oatsmaster wrote:
In all honesty, what do y’all think the math is?
Like actually do the math 4 or 5 mafia, so 15 or 16 townies. 4 townies flipped. So 8-9% you’re miller if town Am I over 90% sure you’re town?
Framer equity? There’s 2 investigative roles at least so I have to assume that there’s a framer in the game
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On March 07 2024 16:59 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 16:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
The reason I’m more concerned than in a normal game is that in a normal game this is a 1 for 1 so whatever but there’s a really good chance in this game that mafia manage to swindle the slam lynch next which would absolutely kill the game No one is lynching slam while I’m alive.
You won’t be though, how would you survive tonight?
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On March 07 2024 17:01 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 17:00 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 16:57 marvellosity wrote:On March 07 2024 16:56 Oatsmaster wrote:
In all honesty, what do y’all think the math is?
Like actually do the math 4 or 5 mafia, so 15 or 16 townies. 4 townies flipped. So 8-9% you’re miller if town Am I over 90% sure you’re town? Framer equity? There’s 2 investigative roles at least so I have to assume that there’s a framer in the game Framer doesn’t affect tracker though so 🤷♂️
:shrug: eh whatever it is I’ve still got time to impact the game
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On March 07 2024 17:03 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 17:00 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 16:57 marvellosity wrote:On March 07 2024 16:56 Oatsmaster wrote:
In all honesty, what do y’all think the math is?
Like actually do the math 4 or 5 mafia, so 15 or 16 townies. 4 townies flipped. So 8-9% you’re miller if town Am I over 90% sure you’re town? Framer equity? There’s 2 investigative roles at least so I have to assume that there’s a framer in the game Tiny. 1/alivetownies * 1/aliveplayers Cause framer requires the cop and framer to hit the same player.
Yes but it’s not random, slam was obviously the cop so how many options was he really gonna check
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Palmar/Marv what are y’all thoughts on dmb and mz of the stuff I’ve said?
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Talking about the discords, any updates from there?
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On March 07 2024 23:28 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 23:18 marvellosity wrote:On March 07 2024 22:56 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Everyone who has called into question Slam's check in anyway is instantly less town to me. That starts with copcake but also includes you now Koshi. It's got the vibe of a scum team that left slam alive thinking he wasn't gonna find any of them and are now mad that he's better than they thought.
If Oats flips VT we can revisit this but right now these posts only serve as opening the door for Oats to get out of the lynch.
Also funny your push was onto me Koshi when I'm the same lynch Oats tried to push as the alternative to him. Do you really think mafia think they can wiggle out of a red check? I think the opposite to you. I think mafia absolutely rolls with the red check. They might or might not depending on the team. But I think grilling slam and sowing doubt on the check is the wrong thing to do this cycle. We could instead be discussing VE or TTS or even yourself and be planning ahead for tomorrow rather than losing this day to what is essentially WIFOM discussion about the check. I think it's easier for scum to just chum up the thread with pointless discussion on whether Slam's check is good or not. Scum don't even have to get Oats out of the check to have a succesful day, just spend it wasting time on pointless discussion rather than other potential scum.
You say this but you has literally spent the whole day discussing me so far, which indicates you don’t actually want to progress the game, you just want to park your vote on me
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On March 07 2024 23:24 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 18:20 ToTheStars wrote:
DP and Vivax what are your reads?
All I remember of Day 1 is that I was townreading you two, maybe rayn, also alakaslam. And scumreading trfel but I think they flipped town? The post feels like trying to pretend to be clueless. I think they flipped town. Nobody would talk like that.
Yeah i agree with this, very forced
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On March 07 2024 20:52 justanothertownie wrote:
I still think Oats is quite towny btw. - also in his reaction to the check. Still 100 % the lynch today but it would not surprise me if he flipped Miller.
?? What is this post?
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On March 07 2024 23:58 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 11:07 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 06 2024 10:54 Jealous wrote:I don't want to misrep Oats so I will be limiting to what I consider reads to being their "votes" in this thread and if they ever directly say that someone is scummy/town. Simply "I don't like this (post)" is not enough IMO. In chronological order" + Show Spoiler [Links] +So we have: Town:
Koshi (previously scum voted)*
Iamperfection
Rayn
Palmar
NA:
DarthPunk
sandroba
Trfel
marvellosity
Jealous
Meapak_Ziphh
Hapahauli
ToTheStars
Rels
Alakaslam
Scum:
VE
Jacob
DMB
CopCake
Slam
Vivax
JAT
Koshi*
Also: "I do agree that either both [rayn and marv] are mafia or rayn is town."
Seem right, @Oats? Oh sorry I misread but I think vivax is town now and jat is town now Jacob more null slam town Updates from Oats' filter since the above reads list:2847: Voted JAT anyway despite townreading him, to give Trfel "time to play." Because of where the votes were, I am not gonna change alignments here, but it should be noted that Oats had JAT as town and Trfel as NA. 3414: "Jsl saying that koshi’s thing was a scumslip but DMB’s thing wasn’t a scumslip is super sus" 3861: "I’m just laughing at the jealous post completely accepting that he’s acting in an anti town manner because of “probability”" <- I don't think this is enough for me to assume they SR me but who knows. 3990: "For claim reactions, I think that the way jealous reacted felt very preplanned and lining up the mislynches, what do you think?" <- This is closer to an accusation IMO.* 4067: "Overall, it just doesn’t seem like mz has natural progressions and is not trying to find mafia" 4013: "If this means that you think slam is cop then yes I agree " So we have: Town:
Koshi
Iamperfection
Rayn
Palmar
Vivax
JAT
Alakaslam
NA:
DarthPunk
sandroba
Trfel
marvellosity
Hapahauli
ToTheStars
Rels
Scum:
Meapak_Ziphh
Jealous [?]*
Jacob
VE
DMB
CopCakeAlso: "I do agree that either both [ rayn and marv] are mafia or rayn is town." @Oatsmaster: Is this updated reads list of yours accurate? What would you change and why?
Jacob is town, cop is town, tothestars is mafia. You are null, jat is mafia
How did you get jat is town from my filter
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On March 08 2024 00:02 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 23:56 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 07 2024 20:52 justanothertownie wrote:
I still think Oats is quite towny btw. - also in his reaction to the check. Still 100 % the lynch today but it would not surprise me if he flipped Miller. ?? What is this post? I think it is rather self-explanatory?
Yes I can read? It sounds like you are prepping for my flip
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EPT
