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Ok sleeping for real now but I had to come back and see how wrong my math was
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Now I want to get Russian language lessons.
But I will look at this
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Oats is right on those probabilities, so yeah 1.3% or about 1 in 80.
Not 13%, that is 1 in 8 which is clearly better odds than either of them occurring.
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On March 07 2024 14:23 CopCake wrote:
Video not avaible
Right because it is sus as hell lol. If you really want to see it you must quote and paste the link into your browser
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Okay so I was quoting a bunch of mz posts but I fucked up somewhere and the post is gone.
Anyway let me try again
On March 05 2024 00:59 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2024 18:28 marvellosity wrote:On March 04 2024 12:32 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 DarthPunk wrote:
If we vote for the tip top town to be mayor, why can't we trust them with a vig shot?
Sure make suggestions and stuff, but I know if I was the mayor I am just going to back myself, because I know I am town and can make a smart shot.
But I don't know if you're town and I'm still not trusting my tip top town with a shot on D1. Sorry MZ, you’d trust a collective town with all sorts of levels of play, and containing multiple mafia, to make a better choice than your best town read? On D1? Yes. Outside of people like Ver or Ace or incognito, I don't think there's anyone on TL who I'd trust over my own reads on D1. I know trfel and I kinda beat the whole mayor kill thing to death in the first few pages but I just think using it as a town double lynch has a way higher chance of hitting scum than one guy taking a gut shot.
So mz here says that he trusts his own reads above everyone else in the game but then somehow twists that to having town choose the mayor kill being ideal which would give mz the benefit of mayor without the drawbacks of the responsibility to actually carry out the kill. Scummy
On March 05 2024 11:09 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 06:45 sandroba wrote:
I mean I can see you not confident rayn is town, being maybe null on trfel and leaning scum on marv. But pushing to lynch into these 3 now is just ridiculous as town, you are sowing doubt and with no actual town goal. I'm pretty convinced koshi is scum Is he scum or frustrated by the mason circle and trying to force a case to justify his emotions?
Mz then goes through koshi and flip flops a couple of posts about koshi and right after that does this weird defending post to Sandro where it seems like he has a really firm townread on koshi which wasn’t a natural progression. He does this earlier with dmb too, in a very unnatural way.
MZ also spends most of the day tunneling copcake and writing posts that he never follows up on about the people that “thought vivax was town but didn’t want him to be mayor”
However come to right after the lynch, mz posts this
On March 06 2024 12:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 12:15 Vivax wrote:On March 06 2024 12:14 CopCake wrote:On March 06 2024 12:12 DarthPunk wrote:On March 06 2024 12:12 CopCake wrote:
In before, cake why were you so sure Tfrel was town? Only mafia can be like that 🧟♀️
I wasnt sure, but I stated why Tfrel is a good player AND it was probably his real birthday today, we saw a birthday cake in his username and he said he was unaware, so if he id mia maybe it is because of the celebration. You wasted your vote, so you can't be mad if you are town. I didnt wasted my vote, I was sleeping. And spent yesterday part of the day praising Tfrel. You saying this is unfair. And a bad player. You put your alarm at 1 minute after deadline ? lmfao I missed this, I had the exact same thought. I always hate when people come strolling into the thread after a lynch and talk about how bad everyone was for lynching a townie when their vote is on some rando with no real chance of dying and they weren't around at the deadline.
As if the person he’s talking about isn’t his top scumread throughout day 1 and just some rando. Again makes no sense for a townie to think like this.
On March 07 2024 11:06 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
OK I'm caught up. No way scum shoots me with everyone who decided it was time for the D2 MZ scum read a little early but in case someone was inspired to vigi me I've got the following for scum in order of confidence:
JSL for stuff I've previously posted about
VE for completely fucking off from the game when the pressure let up from him
TTS for also completely fucking off
Marv based on vibes and his refusal to interact with the thread outside of the mason group.
JAT (but this is a weak read since my vote on him was more because I thought he was scummier, worth a revisit for me)
I'm no longer scumreading cop but I just wish she would answer my questions about JSL
Town reads who I'm never gonna lynch are:
Sandroba
Vivax
DP
Koshi
Randomly now townreads her even though he previously said how he hates her play, there’s no explanation here as to why he flips.
Overall, it just doesn’t seem like mz has natural progressions and is not trying to find mafia
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On March 07 2024 14:32 Alakaslam wrote:
Oats is right on those probabilities, so yeah 1.3% or about 1 in 80.
Not 13%, that is 1 in 8 which is clearly better odds than either of them occurring.
You add them together because they are independent events..
The sole probability of me being Miller is higher than 1/80 so how does a second possible event make it lower
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On March 07 2024 14:19 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 14:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
Okay that mz post just triggered me so hard like what in the actual fuck was that. Which one?
The one where he tried to justify his vote on me by saying it was some absurd probability chance that I’m town and got red checked
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just letting you all know I need to focus on work for a bit tomorrow, so with oats getting lynched I'll post a bit less.
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On March 07 2024 10:06 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 09:59 Vivax wrote:On March 07 2024 09:55 Jealous wrote:On March 07 2024 09:45 Vivax wrote:On March 07 2024 08:54 Vivax wrote:
Looking at the VC three wasted their votes of which two probably could have done so because they got frustrated about lacking thread pull.
Either rayn is simply town here and we're dealing with:
Palmar, JAT, VE, DMB, Jealous + MZ maybe but can't get a read + Rels maybe but he's just doing less than usual which is offputting.
Or he's not and one of those is actually town.
Just putting it out there. Okay and if you take yourself out of the equation, what do you think of those that remain in this list ? Which one could you see yourself lynching tomorrow ? Hmm. I guess I'd say that my perception of the following improved overall: Palmar JAT rayn (improved relative to me gut-scum-reading him in my initial reads list, but not too much) My perception of the following did not: VE DMB MZ Rels Between the above I found DMB and VE to be the more erratic and thus unhelpful posters for the most part. Rels and MZ just haven't done much recently in general, though I guess VE can be added to that list too; VE's posts over the last 24 hours are just a big fat nothingburger. MZ at least seems to be trying to catch up after a shitty day so I can be patient there at the moment. Rels, similar story, though I agree with whoever said that they would have "lynched over half the game" over Trfels. So, TLDR, I guess my top contenders from that list would be VE and DMB, followed by probably rayn (though I do want to give them more time to work on things, as I mentioned before, I did like how they approached the CopCake discussion overnight). As for names outside of that list, I think TTS and CopCake both deserve a mention. It‘s a bit in contrast to this very recent opinion On March 07 2024 08:57 Jealous wrote:
Hmmm. I can see it as potentially scum!Rayn trying to push a lynch on Palmar then backing off of it when they saw it wasn't happening any time soon, and town!Palmar catching onto this and/or having other reasons for scumreading Rayn. However, I'll have to take a look at their filters to see what the actual timing and pacing of what you said is. Would rather see it with my own eyes than take your word for it. Well, I haven't gone through the actual filters yet, so that might change my perception. Again, my perception of rayn improved due to their activity overnight re: CopCake, but as I stated in my long-winded response to rayn in the first place ( link for reference) I haven't seen enough to make me think of rayn as now more town than scum at this moment. If anything, I think that keeping him around over would lead to better things for discussion- and analysis-wise than VE, DMB, TTS, and CopCake, which should thus be more favorable for the town.
So, following up on Rayn vs. Palmar as promised to @Vivax. Going to post the order of events after searching both of their filters for the others' name, for simplicity sake.
X -> Y = X suspects/reads/calls Y scum, neutral, or town. Note.
1351 Rayn -> Palmar, VE
1935 Rayn -> Palmar, Trfel
1943 Rayn -> Palmar, JAT
2082 Rayn votes Palmar; this happened after they had a bit of back-and-forth on a few things.
2902 Rayn -> Palmar.
2955 Rayn -> Palmar
3008 Rayn -> Palmar
3011 Rayn -> Palmar
3020 Rayn -> Palmar
Okay god damn there are like 80 more mentions of his name from this point onward and I am now realizing this was a dumb venture to catalog so I will just point out if/when he changed his mind.
... Okay so holy fuck, I went through Rayn's filter and never once did Rayn actually change his read from Palmar as scum.
I see now that what Vivax said was that he "backed off of" Palmar while Palmar was instead continuing to attack him. Somehow I equated this to Rayn changing his mind, but that never happened.
So, ultimately, I think this is mostly a nothingburger. Rayn was basically pushing Palmar due to meta stuff, and then it seems like Palmar pushed back simply because he doesn't agree with Rayn's meta-read approach? That's what I got by searching for their names toward the end of their histories.
TLDR This was an enormous waste of time IMO. Did find some other things to look into for tomorrow ET, though, so at least there is that.
And with that, I'm gone until then. Night, all.
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On March 07 2024 14:45 Oatsmaster wrote:
Everyone read post on MZ
I didn't like some of MZ's earlier posts. I too wished they had explained their TRs in that most recent list, and an explanation for the CopCake flip would have been great, too.
However, I really like this immediate jump on CopCake for being so insistent on grilling Alakaslam.
And none of that really changes anything for me for this cycle as of now, so yea, good night.
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On March 07 2024 15:02 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 10:06 Jealous wrote:On March 07 2024 09:59 Vivax wrote:On March 07 2024 09:55 Jealous wrote:On March 07 2024 09:45 Vivax wrote:On March 07 2024 08:54 Vivax wrote:
Looking at the VC three wasted their votes of which two probably could have done so because they got frustrated about lacking thread pull.
Either rayn is simply town here and we're dealing with:
Palmar, JAT, VE, DMB, Jealous + MZ maybe but can't get a read + Rels maybe but he's just doing less than usual which is offputting.
Or he's not and one of those is actually town.
Just putting it out there. Okay and if you take yourself out of the equation, what do you think of those that remain in this list ? Which one could you see yourself lynching tomorrow ? Hmm. I guess I'd say that my perception of the following improved overall: Palmar JAT rayn (improved relative to me gut-scum-reading him in my initial reads list, but not too much) My perception of the following did not: VE DMB MZ Rels Between the above I found DMB and VE to be the more erratic and thus unhelpful posters for the most part. Rels and MZ just haven't done much recently in general, though I guess VE can be added to that list too; VE's posts over the last 24 hours are just a big fat nothingburger. MZ at least seems to be trying to catch up after a shitty day so I can be patient there at the moment. Rels, similar story, though I agree with whoever said that they would have "lynched over half the game" over Trfels. So, TLDR, I guess my top contenders from that list would be VE and DMB, followed by probably rayn (though I do want to give them more time to work on things, as I mentioned before, I did like how they approached the CopCake discussion overnight). As for names outside of that list, I think TTS and CopCake both deserve a mention. It‘s a bit in contrast to this very recent opinion On March 07 2024 08:57 Jealous wrote:
Hmmm. I can see it as potentially scum!Rayn trying to push a lynch on Palmar then backing off of it when they saw it wasn't happening any time soon, and town!Palmar catching onto this and/or having other reasons for scumreading Rayn. However, I'll have to take a look at their filters to see what the actual timing and pacing of what you said is. Would rather see it with my own eyes than take your word for it. Well, I haven't gone through the actual filters yet, so that might change my perception. Again, my perception of rayn improved due to their activity overnight re: CopCake, but as I stated in my long-winded response to rayn in the first place ( link for reference) I haven't seen enough to make me think of rayn as now more town than scum at this moment. If anything, I think that keeping him around over would lead to better things for discussion- and analysis-wise than VE, DMB, TTS, and CopCake, which should thus be more favorable for the town. So, following up on Rayn vs. Palmar as promised to @Vivax. Going to post the order of events after searching both of their filters for the others' name, for simplicity sake. X -> Y = X suspects/reads/calls Y scum, neutral, or town. Note.1351 Rayn -> Palmar, VE1935 Rayn -> Palmar, Trfel1943 Rayn -> Palmar, JAT2082 Rayn votes Palmar; this happened after they had a bit of back-and-forth on a few things.2902 Rayn -> Palmar. 2955 Rayn -> Palmar3008 Rayn -> Palmar 3011 Rayn -> Palmar 3020 Rayn -> Palmar Okay god damn there are like 80 more mentions of his name from this point onward and I am now realizing this was a dumb venture to catalog so I will just point out if/when he changed his mind. ... Okay so holy fuck, I went through Rayn's filter and never once did Rayn actually change his read from Palmar as scum. I see now that what Vivax said was that he " backed off of" Palmar while Palmar was instead continuing to attack him. Somehow I equated this to Rayn changing his mind, but that never happened. So, ultimately, I think this is mostly a nothingburger. Rayn was basically pushing Palmar due to meta stuff, and then it seems like Palmar pushed back simply because he doesn't agree with Rayn's meta-read approach? That's what I got by searching for their names toward the end of their histories. TLDR This was an enormous waste of time IMO. Did find some other things to look into for tomorrow ET, though, so at least there is that. And with that, I'm gone until then. Night, all.
Yeah I mean, palmer seemed to be doing townish things but I mean... Rayn, confirmed town, good town player, with extra mason info haaaaaaaard pushed Palmer all game. As someone who doesn't know Palmer that's a fair call for like a day three lynch imo.
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Like no way Mafia palmer isn't like yo lets kill this guy who's on me while a lot of other town looking people like me.
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I say we don't kill Oats but I haven't read anything. I always thought Oats was town when he posted.
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I am aware he is redchecked though.
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I'll check 1 thing. If it looks like Oats has convinced himself somebody is mafia. That is one thing that I dont remember from his posts. Even the votes
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On March 07 2024 15:34 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Like no way Mafia palmer isn't like yo lets kill this guy who's on me while a lot of other town looking people like me.
It could also be why Rayn was shot if Palmar is town.
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On March 07 2024 15:37 Koshi wrote:
I say we don't kill Oats but I haven't read anything. I always thought Oats was town when he posted.
Don’t think this is smart
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EPT
