Newbie Mini Mafia LXI

On January 30 2015 04:17 Half the Sky wrote:


To be honest, I hope you RNG scum soon in an upcoming game. I'd like to see your scum game m'lady <3 <3

On January 30 2015 09:16 jarjarbinks wrote:
lol

so if I don't do that....I'm scum?

dang it lolz

On January 30 2015 09:30 jarjarbinks wrote:
LOL so it took him liiiiike 3 weeks to still not get the first joke I made in my first game

On January 30 2015 10:49 jarjarbinks wrote:


lol waaaaaaaaaat no I totally have decent reads like all the time xD u obviously were super suspicious! All like 20 billion pages of filter was suspicious!

On February 15 2015 10:24 Trfel wrote:

Remember last game where I opened confidently?

I do. It was the game where I was mafia.

On February 15 2015 13:07 Trfel wrote:
Rsoultin, you responded to me in a way that seems to be cutting off discussion as opposed to encouraging it. At first I wondered if that might make you slightly more likely to be mafia, but in the end, I don't think that it is alignment indicative.

All I do know is that when people check in on this thread, they need to have something to comment on, or there is no point in them posting. This was a lot of the problem with the last newbie game, there wasn't enough content to actually read people. And Valentine's Day or not, this game hasn't been looking much better.

So yeah, I've drafted all kinds of posts I could make, and nothing seems right. This doesn't seem right either, but at least it's honest.

Point being, if someone is here, please say something and we can at least get a little bit of material to work with.

On February 15 2015 13:52 Trfel wrote:

The first portion of the post is directed to you. The rest of the post (paragraphs 2 through 4, though I really hesitate to call them paragraphs...) are directed to whoever reads the post, specifically those who read the post in the near future.

I definitely want to get people talking. If the game starts off at an appropriate pace, it will probably stay there. But if it starts off as an extremely low content game, it will probably stay that way. Unfortunately, the reverse is also true, that if the game starts out with too much spam and not enough content, it will probably stay that way. But in the end, I'd rather have a spammy game than a nonexistent one.

On February 15 2015 14:26 Trfel wrote:
The Shining's opening posts seem somewhat like yours (rsoultin). Both respond to me, and both seem somewhat skeptical of my opening. I don't like this because it goes absolutely nowhere with starting the discussion.

In particular, The Shining's restatement of my opening post seemed off. Usually, telling the scum to watch out seems to be useless. However, saying that someone needs to back up their words after they say this is even more useless.

But, The Shining definitely has a point. My opening post does lack substance. Outside of some extremely brilliant setup talk (which isn't going to happen given the simple setups for this game), a roleclaim is the only first post of any substance that I can think of. But someone has got to do it. I don't feel that my posts warrant the seemingly displeased attitude that The Shining is showing towards me, but I can't say that it isn't at least somewhat deserved.

So, I don't particularly like the way that The Shining has played so far, but I see no reason why it is any more likely to come from one alignment from the other.
+ Show Spoiler +

On February 15 2015 14:38 Trfel wrote:

Yeah, that's probably not the best way to get a read. Note that the self-mockery has not yet stopped.

As for RNGing a lynch, I'm really surprised that you said that. Especially in a low-activity game, RNGing a lynch is even less effective. This is because it loses the purpose of creating discussion from a new push, and because there is less to work with. It's much better to make a case on someone who has posted in the thread, and exaggerate it to seem stronger than it actually is.

On February 15 2015 14:50 Trfel wrote:

That's why I said it probably isn't the best way to read me. I'm sure there are a lot of tone tells that I give that people can pick up on, but of course I don't know them. In this case, your read is correct, so it's quite possible that it has some validity (not that you can be 100% certain of that, of course).

I think that RNG lynch is a poor strategy, when compared to other strategies. It can still be effective, and in the hands of a good player, I'm sure it can be very effective. It definitely has merits. But in a low-content game like this one will almost certainly be, I think it's one of the worse things to try and do.

Would you like me to build a case on myself to give you some ideas?

On February 15 2015 15:04 Trfel wrote:

Fine, you're right.

Since I don't see much reason to call you scum at the moment, I guess there's not much more to do then. On the bright side, the game is slightly more interesting than it was earlier.

On February 15 2015 15:10 jarjarbinks wrote:
Rsoultin: Do you think you could actually RNG lynch someone? I don't think you could lol

On February 15 2015 15:17 jarjarbinks wrote:


Nope, totally 5th wheeled a weird after church double date thing tho. I should prob get one of those date things.

LOL just make sure you don't actually read all of the rules first

On February 15 2015 15:26 jarjarbinks wrote:


Trf's opening: slightly less crazy than last game I played with him in. No random vote the guy who might be inactive play. Wants to promote discussion. I could go either way cuz he "tried" to do that as scum.

Shining- not much reaction there. What i'd typically expect I guess?

You- I expect you to do what you do every game. You did it...lol

Everyone else: I'm guessing they are gone for valentine's. I'd get worried if people aren't chiming in when I wake up tomorrow.

On February 15 2015 15:22 Trfel wrote:

From my (limited) understanding of RNG lynch, the point isn't necessarily to actually lynch the target, but to see how people react to the push.

On February 16 2015 00:58 jarjarbinks wrote:
I actually liked the plan just because it was different and promoted discussion. I think it could also produce some insight on who mafia kills at night too. Say if mafia kills the next guy in the link, you might take away that mafia isn't worried about being on the chop block soon. Plus people's one time ability is something real, like votes, in comparison to words. If I use my one-time ability on rsoultin, it means a lot more than me defending her in discussion.

I guess I could see either mafia or strong town reads be more willing to break the cycle over more quiet town. They are probably going to lead the vote wagons and the discussions anyways?

On February 16 2015 01:42 Hier wrote:

Nobody is forcing you to use your switch on a target you aren't sure of.

I am sure some people will have a problem with a specific person being "auto-lynched", in which case anyone is free to save that person by using up their switch ability, allowing for a standard vote we will see on Day 1. Or you can convince someone else to do it, someone who isn't in danger of being dragged into a lynch.

On February 16 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I guess I feel that the RNG lynch has all of the positives of the Bridges method, but without many of the obvious downsides, and is this a superior method. And I have already discussed why I feel that standard, critical analysis is the best method.

By making everything automated, players would be less likely to say things or analyze the game, since it isn't necessary, and things will keep going on their own. This means that when it actually is time to vote for a lynch as normal, town has basically nothing to work with, even if it is LYLO.

In addition, this method gives mafia perfect information as to the lynch order, and without incentive to post, they should have no trouble surviving a few mislynches and winning the game.

On February 16 2015 03:14 jarjarbinks wrote:
Ya I went back through it, and it definitely has mafia in favor (I was wrong on the 47%, its 33% mafia doesn't need to make a switch and still wins without losing a mafia member) If I was mafia, I would definitely roll the dice on any automated lynch strategy.
My spreadsheet doesn't take into account people's reads though. Say rsoultin (almost always townread by everyone in the game every game) is on the chop block, I'm pretty sure someone would use their switch on her. If she's mafia, for obvious reasons. If she's town, then because everyone thinks she's town and knows that it is a mistake.
That goes right back to mafia have perfect information over town not having it. If we used the bridge strategy, our only real hope would be to:
1. figure out how mafia would NK based on that strategy, which looks very similar to WIFOM.
2. Heavily analyze ANY switch that is made. It should mean a lot for someone to use their 1 free pass to make the switch. Which also might seem a little WIFOMy.

I'm not sure how to judge people based on their reactions to the system. I was the only one that liked it and backtracked later through rsoultin and excel. I tried to think of something similar to this for my last game for similar reasons to what Hier pointed out. Everyone else didn't like it.

On February 16 2015 03:20 jarjarbinks wrote:
No lynch policy day 1. remember I almost got killed for it?

On February 16 2015 03:44 zlefin wrote:
I'd say the vote count makes plenty of sense, unless people are pushing an RNG lynch, it's a bit early to have votes. We haven't even heard from all the players yet, so it's rather hard to have a vote, especially when there's so much time left.

On February 16 2015 01:16 rsoultin wrote:
So I have a problem with you, Hier.

First you're nitpicking a post that has already been corrected xP Bad form.

Second, while I find your little set-up thing interesting (read: a concept I haven't seen put into practice before) it has flaws. Namely, it puts everything on auto-pilot and actually makes it less likely for people to do any work or analysis unless they're the ones on the block. Yuck. Admittedly I could still see a townie bringing up the idea and thinking it's good.

Third, and most damning...all you've done all game is blather on about setting up an automated circle lynch. Got any reads, Hier?

On February 16 2015 03:11 rsoultin wrote:
I'll poke silverarte.

Also, Trfel, same thought on JJB's post.

JJB, can you show me how you arrived at the 47% number? I'm not as good at math but I can at least verify that it's valid when I see it in front of me.

Not as quick to read Hiel...hie...whatever his name is lol >< as town, though. Throwing things into a random number generator and drawing an (MSpaint?) graphic isn't exactly a ton of work, and he's done nothing to show that he cares about finding scum. Maybe when he comes back he'll change my mind.

On February 16 2015 06:38 The Shining wrote:
Personally, I was against Hiers Bridges as I read it as it would take vote analysis away from me, which along with posting inconsistencies are my strongest scumhunting tools. Most points I would make against it have already been elaborated on so I won't beat a dead horse. Just not for it. That being said, Hier is a very slight townread for me. I don't think scum would put themselves in the spotlight so early with a strategy that unwittingly favors scum.

RSo feels like townRSo. She's in like every game I've played recently, here and elsewhere, and I'm not picking up anything out of the norm. Direct questions and responses, scumhunting, engaging. However, see above for why I think you're wrong about Hier. Does scum, especially in a newbie game, have the balls to suggest something like that?

I could see it being misguided town.

On February 16 2015 07:33 Trfel wrote:

Uh, are you reading the thread?

He made it pretty clear that he is scumreading you.

On February 16 2015 07:08 Hier wrote:
jarjarbinks, Trfel:

Purely numerically completely off the wall random lynches win out over the Bridges method by a little over 2 percentage points at the second lynch; it is negligible. In both cases mafia’s odds of escaping 2 lynches in a row are a little better than a coin flip.

Better blind mathematical odds are not, however, what I’m advocating. I am selling a platform, a canvas, through which reads can be made. You say people will be content with the predetermined 2nd lynch and activity will drop – I say you’re wrong. As long as there are 2 sides that want to win arguments will always arise, except in this case they will be of a different nature: justification of substitution, rather than a timed mandatory witch hunt. Bandwagons will certainly not be eliminated, but through this method they will demand sturdier foundations, which eliminates chaos.

Let’s spice things up.

rsoultin:

In 3 separate posts you have described your reads to be null towards people that have posted, and despite you not liking the Bridges method, which is fine, said that it is something a town player may suggest thinking it’s good. Later, after someone mentioned they weren't a fan of my model, you've gone to suggest that I've done nothing to show that I care about finding scum, all the while you proclaim your reads are null and just ask what other players’ reads are. That is the way mafia players probe the scene to start a bandwagon.

Why else, out of the blue, without any further analysis, would you vote me to be lynched with the phrase “Tell me why I’m wrong, or get onboard.”? No, it is your job to tell everyone the reasons behind your vote, not to tell everyone to get onboard.

I vote rsoultin.

I know who your follower is. Should you turn green the town will have a sure scum locked. Should you turn red, someone will bail me out before the 2nd lynch.

On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote:
Trfel:
It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it.

On February 16 2015 07:56 Hier wrote:
The Shining:
I am not an oracle, I will give out reads as soon as I come to their conclusion. In turn I must ask for some analysis from other people as well. Despite what you are saying my accusation of rsoultin was not an OMGUS. Within the first paragraph of rsoultin's section I describe why his or her play is scummy, which does not mention his or her vote.

On February 16 2015 08:04 Hier wrote:
rsoultin:
Unfortunately, you did not give me much to work with. Your response can be summarized as "Your post is bad, Hier."

Anyway, I'll be back in a few hours.

On February 16 2015 08:14 Trfel wrote:
Rsoultin...

This is a newbie game. I think it would be a bit more appropriate if you pushed your scumreads a little less aggressively? The first scumread in newbie games tends to get upset and stop playing the game. Obviously, that is not ideal, regardless of their alignment.

On February 16 2015 08:19 Trfel wrote:

It felt about normal to me. If you were pushing me, I wouldn't even blink (based on your tone, I might be surprised by your reasoning....). If this was a normal game, it would not be a problem at all, but for a newbie game, I just think it's better to err on the side of caution.

On February 16 2015 08:25 Trfel wrote:

I'm refraining from coming down on either side of this until I go back through the thread.

While I do like your initiative to push Hier, and I don't particularly like his response, I'm also not sure that I like the way that you are pushing him. I'm thinking something here, but I don't think it is wise to say it. If I am right, then you know why I shouldn't say it at this time.

On February 16 2015 07:20 Mimeux wrote:
Sooo I’m here, I’m nervous, and I just want the other kids to like me! xD And I’m never showing up late to one of these again hah. I’m finding it a bit challenging to form reads I can really back up with anything substantial. I find it slightly scummy that Hier would introduce a plan, talk extensively about said plan, but not add much of anything else; taking into account The Shining’s read, it could be a ploy to confuse poor little newbies like me!

On February 16 2015 09:29 jarjarbinks wrote:
Rsoultin: Do you actually believe Hier is scum or do you just disapprove of his idea? Town can be wrong right?

Maybe next game you can be mother hen xD lol

On February 16 2015 09:58 jarjarbinks wrote:
I am curious to see where Zfelin's and Elyas's reads are right now. Has the last few pages changed things?

Rsoultin: if say no one joined your bandwagon, do you have anyone else you are suspicious of?

On February 16 2015 12:23 Hier wrote:
I was excited seeing so many new posts, turns out it was for naught. A lot of people are requesting that I provide further reads. I am going to point out that as off right now ElyAs, zlefin, jarjarbinks, and Trfel have not a single scum read with justification between them. Instead what we have from them is a mass of neutral to townish reads that they aren’t willing to commit to, opting to wait for more posts from other people by asking for their reads.

I have provided my prime scum read with justification. Of course rsoultin may just not be very good at the game, which is fine, but I’ll stand by my claim. The Shining’s scum read on zlefin isn’t without rationale, but I suspect the second mafia player to be one of the two inactive players. I do not have a solid town read, in fact it doesn’t make sense to, and stating you are neutral about that guy and that guy isn’t productive.

On February 16 2015 07:08 Hier wrote:

rsoultin:

In 3 separate posts you have described your reads to be null towards people that have posted, and despite you not liking the Bridges method, which is fine, said that it is something a town player may suggest thinking it’s good.

Later, after someone mentioned they weren't a fan of my model, you've gone to suggest that I've done nothing to show that I care about finding scum,

all the while you proclaim your reads are null and just ask what other players’ reads are. That is the way mafia players probe the scene to start a bandwagon.

Why else, out of the blue, without any further analysis, would you vote me to be lynched with the phrase “Tell me why I’m wrong, or get onboard.”? No, it is your job to tell everyone the reasons behind your vote, not to tell everyone to get onboard.

On February 16 2015 12:54 Trfel wrote:
Rsoultin, are you suspicious of anyone other than Hier?

On February 16 2015 08:04 ElyAs wrote:


You're right, I was overly interpreting your post. I red "When posts pick up I'll be there" for no reason...

I liked the push as a pressure tool, and it made Hier react, so it had its effect. Still don't know how to interpret his counter vote, if it's OMGUS or something else. Gonna analyze and share my thoughts.

On February 16 2015 14:25 Trfel wrote:
Rsoultin, please forgive me if I missed it, it's late here and I'm about to go to sleep and I'm too lazy to double check.....

but why are you townreading The Shining? (not to disagree, but because I want to know)

On February 16 2015 14:47 Hier wrote:

Alright. You went back to my original accusation, to which you have already responded, and are now demanding further explanation when, quite literally, nobody else is asking for it. People have already read my statement and have made up their minds, whatever those may be. You are creating artificial content by searching for an excuse to re-state your innocence, and projecting the appearance of scum hunting at the same time. That would create drivel. You have not been the centre of discussion for several pages, and nobody has been tunnelling you, much less me. Right now it looks like the one doing the tunnelling is you. Look, for now my vote stays where it is. If you post something that changes my mind or a more obvious scum target comes up I promise I will be the first one to let you know. For now let me focus on somebody else, instead of going through your filter again.


I've already answered this, and my answer isn't changing. Yes, as the game began.

As of right now I do not think Trfel or jarjarbinks are scum, and thus have no intention of voting for them.

On February 16 2015 14:47 Trfel wrote:

Allow me to start this by saying that I know basically nothing about The Shining's meta...

Upon twice rereading The Shining's filter, I'm slowly becoming more inclined to scumread him. I guess I'm feeling half asleep, so maybe it isn't wise to post this now, but eh...

I don't really like why he is immediately so suspicious of me. Just because I rolled scum in the last game he played? It just doesn't make sense, regardless of his alignment. I also feel that her read on rsoultin is rather weak. Rsoultin has (despite her statements to the contrary) shown that she has a capable scum game, so early game questioning and poking is entirely to be expected from her and I do not believe it is alignment indicative. Looking for a better reason. Then there is the townread on Hier for doing something unique early in the game, and I've already stated that I don't find it that alignment indicative.

From there, The Shining starts a small push on zlefin.
This just feels weak. Initially I felt that The Shining was actively making a read, just one that I disagreed with, but now I'm not so sure. I'm thinking that The Shining is better than this case. The things that are wrong with it:

• Mentioning WIFOM, voting rules, and parroting is in no way scum behavior. Same with policy lynching (which ironically also exists in The Shining's filter). These things are in nature not alignment indicative.
  
• He gave reasonable commitment to his reads on rsoultin and Hier for this point in the game. I don't see his self-acknowledged doubt as scummy, more like an inexperienced and therefore unsure townie.
  
• I didn't get the impression that zlefin is only going to policy lynch from reading his filter. I'm not sure where The Shining is getting this from, but I'm not convinced.

The first part of this post is rather defensive. Even ignoring the fact that the suspicion answered in this post was already retracted, The Shining clearly doesn't want to be scumread. Obviously town also wants to be townread, but it still seems a bit strange. And I don't understand the last paragraph at all, it makes no sense. Is The Shining scumreading me or not, and why?

I guess this makes me want to add The Shining to my pool of "could potentially lynch on Day 1" people. Anyone care to give me a sanity check?

On February 16 2015 14:53 Hier wrote:
By the way, for the sake of pronoun consistency, as I understand it, rsoultin, The Shining, and Mimeux are women, and the rest are men. Is that right? Apologies if I am making a mistake.

On February 16 2015 14:57 Trfel wrote:

Ok good, I was scared for a second.

Who else is female then? Now that it has been brought up, I'm scared that I am wrong.....

On February 16 2015 14:52 rsoultin wrote:


I don't know if this is just because you're new, but me bringing up your case on me and giving you the opportunity to justify it...how does that come from a scum perspective? As you said, no one seems to really be buying your case, so why would I need to further establish my innocence?

On February 16 2015 20:43 zlefin wrote:

While I recognize it was done in jest, I still dislike this statement, it feels scummy to say such a thing, even as a joke.

On February 17 2015 00:28 Trfel wrote:

Pretty sure you were creating pressure from very little to get the thread going. I didn't say that earlier because saying so would defeat the purpose, as people could then refuse to respond.

Which is precisely the reason why Hier's case on you (rsoultin) falls apart. While the points he brought up are good points, this is the simple explanation from a town perspective.

On February 17 2015 00:33 Trfel wrote:

Uh............

Tere, don't answer this question? XD

On February 17 2015 00:41 Tere wrote:


Guys, keep your knickers on if I don't reply immediately, I'm going through filters and posting (that means you, Trfel!)

Having had my PM I am completely confident the player in question was just completely overwhelmed and felt out of her depth and the "eep don't eat me" post and the immediate replace was just indicative of that.

Incidentally rso, I'm made of sterner stuff

On February 17 2015 00:42 Trfel wrote:
Okay, time for a revised post on The Shining, hopefully I'm a little more awake now.

• The Shining seems very suspicious of me early on in the game, the reason being that I was scum in the last game that he played. This reason doesn't make any sense to me, but it doesn't seem significantly more likely to come from one alignment than the other. That said, I would like to have it explained.
  + Show Spoiler +
  On February 16 2015 07:32 The Shining wrote:
  Trfel I'm a little biased against because I scummed with him last game and although I do agree with Ely saying him hiding it would have been way more suspicious, controversial start for Trfel seems to not be alignment indicative. Def wouldn't town him for it. And he tried to push discussion last game, too. Null, must see more.

  Note that I am not saying that it is suspicious that The Shining isn't townreading me, but that the reasoning is strange.
  
  
  
• The Shining's townread on rsoultin is very poor. He has played with rsoultin twice before, and ought to know that rsoultin asking questions is something that will happen regardless of rsoultin's alignment.
  
• The Shining's push on zlefin is rather poor, and I expected better.
  + Show Spoiler +
  On February 16 2015 07:32 The Shining wrote:
  Zlefin has a couple of posts that lead nowhere and weak and unexplained reads. Mentions WIFOM, game voting rules, some parroting. Says Hier and RSo could both be town or both be scum but wont commit to his reads. Seems to be all for policy lynching inactives when there were only 2. How likely is it both scum members are inactive? Likely my leading candidate for a shot at D1 scum lynch.

  This is the original case. And the points in it are incorrect. Mentioning WIFOM and game voting rules is definitely not alignment indicative. Zlefin's reads on Hier and rsoultin had a reasonable amount of commitment for an unsure townie at an early stage in the game. I also don't see zlefin only going after inactives. Several of zlefin's posts suggest that he is actively scumhunting.
  

  On February 16 2015 09:07 The Shining wrote:
  Um, is no one going to even remotely address my slight push on Zlefin? Odd.

  Why did The Shining clarify that the push is slight? If it's a pressure push, then saying that it is a slight push is horrid. And if it's a serious push, then it isn't slight. The comment just seems like The Shining wants to distance himself from his push a little, while still seeming possessive ("Hey, look at me, I'm doing something, but if it goes badly, don't blame me for it!").
  

  On February 16 2015 12:20 The Shining wrote:
  Also, so it's not a surprise.
  
  Vote Zlefin
  
  That's in voting thread. I'll be here at EOD, I'm off of work tomorrow and I don't like the lack of response. Could be inactivity, IRL stuff or just lurking but...my vote is where it is at.

  Zlefin didn't post in between these three quoted posts. I'm not sure what caused this push to change from a slight push to a vote.
  
  
• The Shining seems overly defensive and shows a very strange, ambiguous stance on me (Trfel).
  + Show Spoiler +
  On February 16 2015 12:11 The Shining wrote:
  JJB if you're most worried at first glance about Zf and myself, ask yourself this:
  
  Would I bus my partner D1 while no one but me is pressuring him? He's my top scumread with what's been put into the thread so far. And it might be WIFOM to think I'd light pressure him so that if he does ever flip scum, it'd buy me town cred. But if that was the case, I wouldn't have later commented on the fact that no one else commented on my Zfelin case. I forced it. Scum Shining would just leave it be and if he does flip, I'd be able to go "oh look I called that D1."
  
  So I'm now waiting on Hiers defense, JJbs top scumread and Ely to swing by with a little more than that. I'm assuming you (ElyAs) dozing off now means you'll revisit the RSo Hier exchange with fresh eyes in the morning? BEFORE EoD?
  
  For what its worth, Ely's last post was just a summary of the Hier Rso exchange, a parrot of my questioning Hiers lack of other leads, and an excuse for not giving us more.
  
  Trfel, I really truly hate walls of text. I saw you do it as scum and so did I. I'd scum you for that entire post if I didn't actually read it lmao. And I made that point in the hopes that it would inspire you to do so, Trfel, so I'm glad you obliged. You can see how I was setting it up to see if you were really going to catch up or afk it. And eh, in a game where everyone is on opposite ends of the activity spectrum(very actively posting or lurking along, no mid ground), I feel its my best shot. Policy lynch talk and weak reads and no other talk of lynches shows a disinterest...I know I'd be a bit disinterested if I rolled scum in a newbie game.
  
  Oh wait, I did. And I was. Last game. Lol.

  Ignoring the fact that the comment the first portion of this post is responding to was already retracted, this is still extremely defensive for an off-hand comment. While town obviously has incentive to be townread and survive, this seems overly so. The last paragraph makes no sense to me. I can't tell if I (Trfel) am being townread, scumread, or what, and I can't tell the reasoning for it. Why can't The Shining form a clear opinion of whether I am town or scum? (or null, for that matter?)
  
  

In addition to this, some of The Shining's other posts seem to show genuine scumhunting and thinking. So I am not entirely sure on The Shining. I would definitely like to hear people's thoughts, including The Shining's.

On February 17 2015 01:04 Trfel wrote:
I'm not looking so much as what The Shining did, but why.

I'm fine with The Shining being suspicious of me. It's the reasoning for it that is strange.

I'm fine with The Shining pushing zlefin. But the reasons and strange progression of the push seem off.

Side note, I might actually be back right before the deadline. No guarantees, but I will do my best. Hopefully we won't be needing any last second vote switches, though.

On February 17 2015 01:07 rsoultin wrote:


Can you outline what exactly is strange?

On February 16 2015 15:17 Hier wrote:

I just don't know how far my lexicon can take me reiterating my own accusations, and I don't really see the point when you'll just rebuke it my saying I misinterpreted your quotes, thus creating a nucleus for a completely unnecessary discussion.

But if you really really really want I'll do so in the morning. It's getting late here too, and tomorrow is a holiday here, so I'll have time.

On February 17 2015 01:37 Trfel wrote:
I guess it's probably best that I post this now. My thoughts on why lynching Hier isn't necessarily the best idea.

Hier opened up the game by posting his Bridges method. By advocating something with direct impact on all players, people naturally responded, and it turned out that the responses were mostly negative. It seems that this immediately frustrated Hier a bit, judging by the tone of his first post after that. (link if you want it)

From there, Hier is bombarded with questions. This seems to frustrate him more, and he doesn't answer all of them. One answer that he does provide is that he has no reads, which obviously leads to a whole new wave of questions.

Hier posts a scumread on rsoultin. (link if you want it) This read actually isn't all that bad. While rsoultin and I have already discussed why the points addressed here make perfect sense, from Hier's perspective, it doesn't make sense. It is normally expected that someone explains their pushes, not asks everyone else for their opinions.

Regardless of Hier's alignment, he is clearly frustrated. This leads to his posts being more sarcastic and less responsive, leading to people scumreading him even more (I don't need to post links to posts where Hier is clearly frustrated, it is too obvious). This also would discourage Hier from providing reads.

That's why I can see Hier's play coming from a townie. His play hasn't been good, but it isn't unreasonable. That said, if he doesn't do anything to change his play in the near future, he could very well be the best lynch for the day (at least, as I see it).

Thoughts?

On February 17 2015 01:44 Trfel wrote:

Is Tere female? I don't think that it was specified? It would be much more convenient to have this answered, please.

As for Tere's alignment, I don't know. I really don't know.

This is why I didn't want Tere to answer your question. In addition to pushing (what I believe are) the rules, or at least their intentions, it provides bias that shouldn't be there for the sake of fairness. (side note, it could also be perceived as bluehunting, though I think that's a silly notion)

Just posting this for reference, in case anyone else is wondering about Tere's previous mafia experience. Tere seems to have a reasonable grasp of the game, and what he/she is saying makes sense, but I need to look more closely to separate the logic from its implications on Tere's alignment.

On February 17 2015 01:49 Trfel wrote:

To elaborate, my initial concern is that Tere's reads are more based on mafia ability than alignment indicative information. It is really easy to say why someone is wrong and call them mafia, or say that someone makes sense and call them town. But that isn't scumunting. I noticed that Tere's lynch list seems to definitely put those who have played more games higher on the list.

On February 17 2015 01:53 Trfel wrote:
For the record, I'm dropping the point in your first paragraph because I don't believe it serves any further purpose, not because I agree with you.

Would you mind taking another look at Tere and start with the assumption that Tere is a reasonably experienced and capable mafia player? I will do the same.

On February 17 2015 02:12 Tere wrote:


Perhaps I haven't expressed myself clearly enough in my WOT on him. I don't think the model structure is town helpful, in fact I think it hurts town. But I don't think posting it is that alignment indicative. Insisting you are going to adhere to it in the face of rejection by the rest of the group does look scummy though, IMO, as it provides perfect cover for not needing to give reads. That post and the general refusal to give reads throughout is what's pinging my scumdar.

On February 17 2015 02:13 Trfel wrote:
I just realized. There's been almost nothing going as far as counterwagons to Hier. Just a really small push from The Shining on zlefin.

If Hier really is mafia, I would expect to see some sort of counter push (unless it actually is a The Shining and Hier scumteam).

This makes me even more hesitant to lynch Hier. It just really feels like a typical newbie game Day 1 mislynch.

Tere, I don't know at the moment. And rsoultin, I'm really hesitant to lynch someone who is making sense when they have just replaced into the game. That seems silly.

On February 17 2015 02:30 Trfel wrote:
I'm not going to afk vote. Please.

I take full responsibility for my vote. I'm just letting you know that you may not have my support for a vote switch late in the day.

I'm showing resistance for the Hier lynch for several reasons. The first being that there isn't many other people fighting it, and the lynch isn't as solid as I would like. The second is that if people have other ideas, I would really, really, like to hear them, and not have the lynch sealed up. The third is that if Hier does come back, if my "frustrated town" guess is correct, having some support would make him MUCH more likely to try and defend himself.

On February 17 2015 02:35 Tere wrote:
Experience copy / paste from coaching board.

"I'm not really a complete newbie - just new to Team Liquid. I've probably played in 20 - 25 timed forum mafia games in the past 4 - 5 years, and read about the same number. However, quite a few of those have been on very casual sites where reading and analysis really isn't a thing, hence the shift (I hope) to a site that plays a little more seriously."

So I've played quite a few games, but I'm not always the greatest case maker, and I tend to rely on tonal reads probably more than I ought, if I'm honest.

On February 17 2015 03:21 zlefin wrote:

As for the policy lynch issue, while it's only a minor one, town depends on information, and if someone is providing little/no information, that's a problem, and a minor scum indication. I generally check up on things on waking up and going to bed, and usually several times over the day in between, so I tend to treat others as if they could do similarly (even if the check is only cursory).

Unlikely to be scum doesn't mean can't be scum; like I say, anyone between 51%-77% to be town is still more likely to be scum than an RNG guess.

I asked for input on how to handle the policy lynch issue because I wasn't sure, as a lot of that depends on skill level of the people involved, and the local meta on handling such things. Especially if people play at a very basic level such things would be more indicative; what I've found in this game is that people mostly seem moderately experienced, either with mafia games, or with the genre generally, so that they aren't making egregious rookie mistakes.

On February 17 2015 03:43 jarjarbinks wrote:



Sure. Rsoultin's basic strategy every game is to pry at little things in the beginning which accomplishes two things.

1: She appears town to everyone (almost always is accepted as town regardless of alignment)
2: Starts discussion.
3: She is probably the best player in this game I've seen do this, so it appeals to her strengths.

The discussion part helps town, plus she might get someone to slip. I generally don't read her one way or another because of it.

On February 17 2015 03:56 jarjarbinks wrote:


HEY I've held my tongue this game lol

On February 17 2015 03:29 Tere wrote:
Jarjar!

Talk to us Jarjar, where is your head at now

(Hi, BTW)

On February 17 2015 04:12 jarjarbinks wrote:
If you are pressuring Hier to talk, you might be giving him the wrong incentives. Right now it looks like a lost cause. If you truly believe he is bad, keep your vote by all means. If it is only for pressure, too many of you are doing it lol

On February 17 2015 04:20 jarjarbinks wrote:
I haven't talked about Tere and Silver much, so i'll share my thoughts

Tere: You seem like a nice version of my sister lol It looks like you make tonal reads but have some backing to them which is nice. I think what you said about mime has some truth to it. I agree with some of Trf's suspicions of you because some of it reminds me of my sister so I believe you have the ability to fool me. But as of right now count me fooled, I'm giving you a townlean right now.

Silver: I don't know what to think about you so far. I think your excuses are definitely justified, but it does hurt my ability to read you. Some people don't like wall posts, but you will need to get all of your thoughts out when you are here. Voting Hier is justifiable right now, but I don't see that as scumhunting. You have me worried.

On February 17 2015 04:27 jarjarbinks wrote:


Trf has talked a lot, which I generally perceive as town. When I read this earlier, I agreed with it. When you voted Hier later while saying you weren't really into it, but wouldn't find a counter wagon, it reminded me of this quote again.

Do you have better candidates as of now? Who are you willing to change your vote for? Who is your top scumread?

On February 17 2015 04:58 Hier wrote:
As per rsoultin's request I have dove into more detail of my original accusation.

The way scum play is by creating an illusion of healthy contribution, often subsidized by the incestuous demand for other people’s reads. This makes them appear to scum hunt and gives them an overall picture of the scene to know who is safe to make a move against without having suspicion fall on them.

rsoultin provides us with a textbook example of such play.

Prior to me making my first post the highlight of the thread was a set of back and forth comments between rsoultin and Trfel, during which rsoultin called one of Trfel’s comments a null read here, and called him and overall null read here. That was when Trfel and rsoultin were the only people that have begun to play (The Shining hoped in mostly to say hello, his post contentless); what’s the point in insisting to calling someone a null read twice at that stage? In this case “null” serves as a parasitic word that acts as an advert, subconsciously making people believe that its user is making reads and scum hunting, while exerting the least effort.

This tactic is coupled effectively with her tendency to demand immediate reads from people that have just joined the thread, as in the case of jarjarbinks and myself. This would be completely fine if not for her safely hiding behind an array of null reads, including myself, seemingly not to piss anyone off. To immediately establish own neutrality to the players, but aggressively seek others' suspicions is usually a sign of mafia play aimed at identifying potential future bandwagons.

Upon my posting of the Bridge model ElyAs, zlefin, and Trfel have responded negatively. Only jarjarbinks initially thought it was worth the try. Once jarjarbinks has begun to display doubt, rsoultin's stance on me diminished, as if to mirror. Finally, jarjarbinks’s final verdict on the model came in, it being negative. This was a signal to rsoultin, giving her permission to vote against me, as she did almost immediately, accompanied by her infamous phrase and no case made. What’s happening here is something very similar to a tactic used to buy equity; it is beneficial to buy into something early knowing its value will grow. It was beneficial to get on the lynch train early; being the first person to do so guarantees protection from future sheep voting accusations, and with 4 people having shown their discontent with me it was a decently safe assumption that a bandwagon would form.

Having said that, it could very well be possible that rsoultin just isn’t very experienced at the game, like I’ve said here before, and is not watching her actions. As it stands her actions are explainable by either her lack of controlled play or that she is scum. It is unlikely to be anything in between.

---

I will be adding The Shining to my probable town list, to join jarjarbinks and Trfel. His actions do not make sense from a mafia perspective. Creating a third lynch candidate with no prior suspicion hovering over zlefin on the grounds of suggesting unlikely scenarios seems to be weak town play.

Finally, like I mentioned in this post, I have been suspecting a scum player to be one of the then inactives, Silverarte and Mimeux. Now that Tere has replaced an inactive player and has begun posting I am more convinced she is, in fact, scum.

On February 17 2015 05:22 Trfel wrote:

You could get killed on night 1 so I don't have to worry about it?

In all seriousness, I am (or at least I like to think I am) a better player than to let it have a significant affect on my play. And I am typically suspicious when the general crowd does something quickly (in this case, townreading you). So, don't worry about me, I can take care of myself.

Rsoultin, I don't really think it is necessary to say that you are more experienced than Hier. Someone can make amazing arguments in their first game ever, or horrible arguments in their hundredth game.

Also, while I don't have trouble figuring out where you stand from your posts, I suppose it is possible that someone might.

On February 17 2015 05:24 Hier wrote:
Now that I've started reading Tere's filter I've noticed that she does not have a case on me at all. She has taken rsoultin's route of "Your post is bad, Hier." No suggestion of intention, or a probable goal I might have as scum. This seems like an easy bandwagon to jump onto, scoring a free townie lynch.

On February 17 2015 05:30 Trfel wrote:

I have in fact read it. He's stated that you could just be an inexperienced player at least once before. While I find this notion humorous, I still don't think that you needed to emphasize that you are more experienced than he is. Whatever, I guess it shouldn't be a big deal, and I shouldn't fuss over it.

On February 17 2015 05:32 zlefin wrote:
While I'm inclined to vote Hier at the moment, my concern is that one more vote for Hier will not change the outcome, and will not provide any useful information for anyone. However, IIRC, people have said trying to interpret night kills is WIFOM; so I'm not sure that voting anyone else would provide any useful information either (e.g. if I name someone else and am night-killed)

Any thoughts/arguments/ideas on what would provide the most town information?

On February 17 2015 05:37 Trfel wrote:
You're a better player than to get mislynched. Don't be silly. If we actually get enough votes to lynch you, you are going to flip scum, or you gave up on the game.

So I guess we're down to Hier or zlefin? And I really don't like a zlefin lynch.

On February 17 2015 05:40 Hier wrote:

She was reaching with her initial assessments. She needed something to establish convincing player analyses.

Saying jarjarbinks is likely a town player because of his spreadsheet? There was no spreadsheet. Similarly I could have said I made a spreadsheet, would I get points? Not to mention I corrected jarjarbinks's math in one of my posts.

Calling you a "Known town or towny" because of your explanation of WIFOM for zlefin?

Laughable.

On February 17 2015 05:43 Trfel wrote:
I guess I don't want to lynch The Shining at the moment. While I still believe that the things I brought up look scummy, as I stated at the time, several other parts of his filter look like real scumhunting.

Were you actually mislynched twice on the same day??? I have some research to do. One of those was LYLO in Student Mafia V, right?

On February 17 2015 05:51 Trfel wrote:
On the contrary, that seems to be a rather good day for the mafia.

Out of curiosity, how much time do you spend playing mafia per day, across all sites?

On February 17 2015 06:00 Trfel wrote:
It would be ideal if he admitted that he was scum so we could lynch him in peace. Sort of like Eden in Linux Mafia.

To be honest, that's the only lynch I haven't been apprehensive about, because he freaking claimed scum. It really is a problem of mine, I never see when a case is solid. Trying to work on it.

On February 17 2015 07:16 zlefin wrote:

Sorry I couldn't impress you, but there really isn't anything else I can do.

On February 17 2015 07:22 zlefin wrote:

I tend to be a cautious person in general, so it's probably just that you're hearing.
I think Hier is about 65% chance of town; so better than an RNG lynch, though hardly a great choice.

When I asked who to vote for, I gave a good reason for asking, so that should be fine. I know how to play, but encouraging discussion is good, and I wanted to hear from the other players on the question.

On February 17 2015 07:50 ElyAs wrote:
I'm strongly considering unvoting too, but I want to hear The Shining's point of view.

On February 17 2015 08:44 jarjarbinks wrote:


It isn't that I 100% believe he's town. It's that he has 6 votes on him. He IS suspicious, I give you that. I wanted to vote him if he actually meant that he's still somehow sticking to his bridges plan when no one else is doing it lol

Maybe it was that you started the wagon on him but it just seems like EVERYONE is against him, and that makes me wonder. Parts of his posts make me think he is town, and is just angry that everyone is against him.

On February 17 2015 08:41 ElyAs wrote:
Well, I'm not gonna push for a Tere lynch today.

Just saw The Shining's post. Guess we are lynching Hier.

On February 17 2015 08:54 jarjarbinks wrote:


Does he mean that he is still using the method? I think his vote proves otherwise, unless he made his one-time switch.

On February 17 2015 08:59 jarjarbinks wrote:


Prob why he didn't want to bring attention to it. Is it alignment indicative?

On February 17 2015 09:08 Silverarte wrote:
...oh shoot. We were wrong! ><



Side note: I'm going to try to start catching up, but I've only got a thirty minute break and fifteen pages to go before I have to go back to work. If I can't post before my go home time, I'll hit it up when I get home. (Just wanted to let everyone know I am alive and trying to be here)

On February 17 2015 10:53 Trfel wrote:
Yay, Trfel isn't alone any more :D

Multitasking is fine, it's not like there is much activity here.

What do you think about what I just posted about two things to look for for scum behavior over the past day (not scumhunting after the Hier lynch seemed set, and showing discontent with the Hier lynch)? Am I right in thinking those things, or not?

Also, what do you think of my alignment at the moment?

On February 17 2015 11:02 Trfel wrote:
What does this mean? Cross-post above, naturally? If so, can someone please explain this to the weak-minded Trfel?


Rsoultin, I'm almost thinking that you are insulting me here

On February 17 2015 11:16 Trfel wrote:
Wait, why would you do this?

On February 17 2015 11:21 Trfel wrote:
Hm, that's a good idea. But I'm right, and everyone else is wrong, I don't want to let them run the thread

On February 17 2015 11:51 Trfel wrote:
So many little reasons to be suspicious of Tere, but little things add up.... I'm going to be filter diving. Rsoultin, why do you feel that Tere is town?
+ Show Spoiler +

On February 17 2015 12:57 Trfel wrote:
Tere

• First, Tere's character.
  + Show Spoiler +
  On February 17 2015 02:35 Tere wrote:
  Experience copy / paste from coaching board.
  
  "I'm not really a complete newbie - just new to Team Liquid. I've probably played in 20 - 25 timed forum mafia games in the past 4 - 5 years, and read about the same number. However, quite a few of those have been on very casual sites where reading and analysis really isn't a thing, hence the shift (I hope) to a site that plays a little more seriously."
  
  So I've played quite a few games, but I'm not always the greatest case maker, and I tend to rely on tonal reads probably more than I ought, if I'm honest.

  
  Tere is clearly experienced in the general workings of a mafia game, even if she is new to this site. Thus, I expect her to show a reasonable ability to make reads and judgments. In addition, Tere has shown to be experienced with mafia acronyms, so I expect to see a high standard of play from her.
  
  
  
• The first main thing that Tere posted was her reasons for voting for Hier. This is a very easy post to make, and it doesn't make sense to vote for Hier before fully analyzing all of the people in the thread.
  + Show Spoiler +
  On February 17 2015 00:17 Tere wrote:
  So, carried over from vote thread ##Vote Hier
  
  (FWIW, I do quite a lot of tone reading as part of my analysis)
  
  I dislike Hier's Bridges concept intensely, I consider it anti town in structure in that it forces players down an automated line of thought, discourages rereading thinking, and provides plenty of room for scum to hide in. Trfel, I think, posted a decent summary of his objections which I found myself nodding along to. However, this isn't why I am voting for Hier as scum. It's not unknown for town newbies to post schemes to catch mafia, and, while not town helpful, I don't think the plan itself alone would be alignment indicative. The next few posts defending the plan also read OK, although a little "my way or the highway".
  
  Hier's vote on rsoultin also felt a little OMGUSy to me
  http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=9#178
  
  Where I really start to become uncomfy with Hier is this post, bold mine:
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote:
  Trfel:
  It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it.

  
  
  I really don't like that Hier says they will always abide by the model's rules, when pretty much everyone has come out and said they don't like it. Could be a stubborn townie, could be scum looking for an easy way to lay their votes down.
  
  I also really don't like the refusal to give reads here:
  http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=13#247
  
  It really feels as though Hier has not much to say apart from pushing this flawed model.
  
  I was writing this as ElyAs was posting, and see their point about the use of language to confuse. Perhaps Hier's style is just normally swallowed a thesaurus regardless of alignment, but I can help but see posts like below as intentionally confusing.
  http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=15#285
  
  Hier, if you are town, you need, I think, to accept the Bridges model ain't happening, and help town to find some counterwagons
  
  Back with thoughts on everyone else once I've gone back and done some filter diving.

  
  The last line of this post initially stands out. If she intends to filter dive everyone in the thread to make reads on them (which is obviously what she did), why would she vote for Hier before she finished filter diving? I know she already read the thread by the time she posted this case, but I would still think that she would wait to fully analyze everyone before voting. It's not like this is a pressure vote, since Hier was already significantly ahead in the voting, both by numbers and the thread presence of the people voting for him. The read itself isn't that unrealistic, but is weirdly stated. Tere's analysis seems to completely ignore the possibility of Hier being a frustrated townie. I also note that scumreading Hier at this point (well, at most points throughout Day 1) is a really easy thing to do. Meanwhile, Tere's reasoning mostly involves copying points that have already been made.
  
  
  
• Tere's behavior towards Hier has been strange and seemingly contradictory.
  + Show Spoiler +
  On February 17 2015 00:21 Tere wrote:
  I agree Hier could be town and just locked on their pet model, and agree we need to look for some counterwagons. No-one yet is really pinging for me yet though :/
  
  I need to see some actual helpful stuff from them before I shift my vote though.
  
  (BTW, while I think about it, I won't be here at round end almost certainly, I needed to be up at 4.30 this morning to take my husband to the station, and while I will try and be about, I might flake out. I'm a despiser of last minute vote shenannies anyway, I think they are helpful to town almost never IMO)

  Right after being confident enough to vote for Hier, before fully analyzing the other people in the thread, Tere expresses doubt over lynching Hier. She also says that we should look for counterwagons. Let's see if she makes any effort to follow through on this.

  On February 17 2015 00:38 Tere wrote:
  I liked the pushing of rso to be a little less hard on the newbies.

  My point is that I feel it is reasonably safe to assume that Tere agreed with my reasoning that rsoultin should be nice about pushing Hier to encourage him to try and defend himself and not quit playing the game. However, this is at odds with the tone that Tere took when conversing with Hier (quotes supporting this will follow).
  

  On February 17 2015 01:52 Tere wrote:
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  On February 17 2015 01:37 Trfel wrote:
  I guess it's probably best that I post this now. My thoughts on why lynching Hier isn't necessarily the best idea.
  
  Hier opened up the game by posting his Bridges method. By advocating something with direct impact on all players, people naturally responded, and it turned out that the responses were mostly negative. It seems that this immediately frustrated Hier a bit, judging by the tone of his first post after that. (link if you want it)
  
  From there, Hier is bombarded with questions. This seems to frustrate him more, and he doesn't answer all of them. One answer that he does provide is that he has no reads, which obviously leads to a whole new wave of questions.
  
  Hier posts a scumread on rsoultin. (link if you want it) This read actually isn't all that bad. While rsoultin and I have already discussed why the points addressed here make perfect sense, from Hier's perspective, it doesn't make sense. It is normally expected that someone explains their pushes, not asks everyone else for their opinions.
  
  Regardless of Hier's alignment, he is clearly frustrated. This leads to his posts being more sarcastic and less responsive, leading to people scumreading him even more (I don't need to post links to posts where Hier is clearly frustrated, it is too obvious). This also would discourage Hier from providing reads.
  
  That's why I can see Hier's play coming from a townie. His play hasn't been good, but it isn't unreasonable. That said, if he doesn't do anything to change his play in the near future, he could very well be the best lynch for the day (at least, as I see it).
  
  Thoughts?

  
  
  What I keep coming back to is that surely a scum coach and a scum QT would have persuaded Hier to drop the Bridges idea altogether, and / or nipped it in the bud if he posted it without consultation. Hier isn't being town helpful at the moment, but stubbornly sticking your neck out like Hier has isn't that helpful for a scum wincon..
  
  I could be persuaded to another wagon, for sure. Just not sure I am seeing an obvious one. zlefin's filter also doesn't look appealing to me, but if this is their very first game that's equally a possibility for that.
  

  Here, I voiced what I think is the best defense for Hier. Since Tere has voted for Hier, and still expressed doubts and a desire to look for counterwagons, she ought to be interested in what I have to say (especially since she later said that she focused on conversing with her townreads, and at the time I was one of her townreads). Tere's quoted post does show some hesitance to lynch Hier, however her reasoning expressed in this post was later shown to be wrong (note that I am not saying that Tere expressed wrong opinions and is therefore mafia, the two are unrelated) My point is, Tere avoided the point of my post, and addressed it while avoiding answering it.
  
  Hier finally comes back. Here are some of the posts that Tere makes towards Hier. Despite seeming open to other wagons and agreeing that it is wise to go soft when pushing someone in a newbie game, her posts seem to say the opposite.
  
  

  On February 17 2015 05:01 Tere wrote:
  Case plz.

  On February 17 2015 05:06 Tere wrote:
  So, the only person you aren't scum reading is ElyAs, based on that, right?

  On February 17 2015 05:06 Tere wrote:
  Let's make that cases plz

  On February 17 2015 05:14 Tere wrote:
  I'm also not liking the ad hominem on rsoultin. It makes you look petty and isn't helping your case any.

  And after this initial bombardment, then some other dismissive posts,

  On February 17 2015 05:59 Tere wrote:
  It's not my neck on the chopping block.
  
  I guess Hier doesn't want to defend himself

  And Hier is supposed to enthusiastically answer Tere's questions? I also agree with jarjarbinks here, it doesn't hurt at all for Tere to answer Hier's questions first. There is no reason not to.

  On February 17 2015 06:02 Tere wrote:
  

  Show nested quote +
  

  On February 17 2015 06:00 Hier wrote:
  

  On February 17 2015 05:59 Tere wrote:
  It's not my neck on the chopping block.
  
  I guess Hier doesn't want to defend himself

  
  This is a team game. It makes no difference if I get lynched, so long as town wins. As of right now you are formally ignoring my request.

  
  
  I guess that's just like the several questions you've ignored and the misrepresentations you've made of several people's reads. Oh, wait....
  
  

  In addition, Tere doesn't seem to be affected at all by the lynch. This is strange, given that she was the main player conversing with Hier in the hours preceding the lynch. Note that she gave only a token effort for finding counterwagons (looked at ElyAs upon my suggestion, glanced at Silverarte's filter). More on this next.
  
  
  
• Hier's attitute this game has seemed extremely relaxed. Ironically, it's so relaxed that I find it suspicious. (This sounds weird, I get it, just read the spoiler...)
  + Show Spoiler +
  I realize in advance that this is controversial. Let me first state that being nervous is normally considered to be a mafia trait, and being relaxed is normally considered to be a town trait. But this is by no means a hard rule, or even all that accurate. For example, Mimeux was about as nervous as possible and Tere is about as relaxed as possible, and they have the exact same role. It could just be Tere's personality, but I have a lot of trouble seeing how town!Tere would be this relaxed in this game. I have several reasons for this. First, it's a newbie game, and newbie games tend to be scum-favored. I know that the last newbie game I played in was a nightmare, and while this one seems better than last, it's definitely among the harder games I have played in. Second, Tere expressed doubts about the Hier lynch going in to it. Why would a townie who isn't completely confident about a lynch go into it completely relaxed? I know that I was pretty nervous about it (even though I wasn't online at the time, I was thinking about it). Tere's carefree attitude doesn't fit in a game with difficult reads, an uncertain Day 1 lynch target, and the eventual mislynch. With a Day 1 mislynch and no great followup, town should be anxious, not relaxed. Tere's relaxed attitude seems to come from a confident scum who has been quickly townread and is watching town collapse.
  
  
  
• Tere does not seem to separate player skill from her reads.
  + Show Spoiler +
  On February 17 2015 01:29 Tere wrote:
  I think based on all of that,
  
  Known town or towny
  Tere
  Trfel
  rsoultin
  
  Don't lynch today
  The Shining
  ElyAs
  Silverarte
  jarjarbinks
  
  Lynchpool
  zlefin
  Hier

  Note that the three most experienced players are all in the most town category, and the one first time player is at the bottom. It's easy to identify if someone is playing well or not. I could go on all day saying if reads are good or bad. But that serves no purpose, since bad doesn't mean mafia, and good doesn't mean town. With Tere's experience and confidence, she ought to know this. However, calling bad play mafia is easy, and calling good play town is easy. An interesting note is that I got the opposite impression from zlefin's filter. While if his lack of experience is ignored, his play is obviously sub-standard, to me his posts seemed genuine and he is trying, and I fail to scum motivation for them. Tere didn't pick up on this at all. This is especially strange, since she claims to get most of her reads through tone.
  
  
  
• Tere stated several times that we should look for a counterwagon to Hier, but barely put any effort into actually doing this.
  + Show Spoiler +
  I touched on this already. Not much to say. While it is still a bit suspicious, given the way that Hier was responding towards the later part of the day, I can understand.

To clarify my final stance on Tere, I'm not really sure. I'm hesitant to townread her. I think I put her at a slight scum lean, I wouldn't go so far as to call it a scumread yet. That said, I generally have no idea how strong or weak my own cases are (again, I can find evidence for this, or rsoultin can probably verify this). So here are my thoughts, I'd really like to hear people's response to this.

Finally, a few thoughts to Tere (if she is in fact town).
+ Show Spoiler +

On February 17 2015 14:07 Trfel wrote:
Eh, I'm curious, but that makes sense. Especially seeing how my late night posting went last night. Can you at least provide hints as to what you are thinking about? My curiosity has been piqued...

On February 18 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote:
Wait, I think I'm missing something here. Can you let me join the in-crowd?

Do you think that Tere is suggesting that everyone is scumreading zlefin? Or what?

On February 18 2015 00:27 Trfel wrote:
I thought we were friends.....

Time to take a break from zlefin's filter and attempt to figure this out.

On February 18 2015 00:33 Trfel wrote:
Oh. I see what you are saying now.

I don't like where this is going at all. Rsoultin, you didn't happen to be in the Hammertime obs chat, did you?

On February 18 2015 00:37 Trfel wrote:
Do you mind reading the obs QT again? There's a certain part of it that I believe is somewhat applicable here. My point is, you're walking on really dangerous ground, and tread carefully. I'm worried that I'm not going to be here tomorrow, so I'm trying to say all that I can now.....

On February 18 2015 00:41 Trfel wrote:
Oh rsoultin, why do you do this to me......... (expresses general frustrations)

I blame you for my own blunders.

On February 18 2015 01:02 zlefin wrote:

I find your tone odd and condescending. We're already playing a game, it's called mafia. If you want to say something, say it.

On February 18 2015 01:22 Trfel wrote:
You townread him. Given my experience in previous games with him, I townread him too (especially given your townread). For much of the game, we have had two of the larger thread presences. We sort of brushed aside suspicions of him, so that would be our fault.

I certainly expect to see his play pick up on Day 2 (it normally does, right?). But for now, I don't think I see anything to indicate that he is any more scummy than normal.

On February 18 2015 01:23 Tere wrote:


Oh, I don't need those reads, believe me. I'm very interested in people's reactions at me putting myself up as tasty Day 2 lynchbait though

On February 18 2015 01:55 zlefin wrote:

pass on the game, I don't think it will help me clear up my thoughts at all.
I want to use my time to review the two people I still have no reads either way on (shining and elyas) to see if I can figure something out on them.

As to JJB, I've had him at mild scumread if that makes you feel any better. Which, by your description of him, would be his usual state. It'll take some time for me to figure out how to compensate for how naturally scummy certain people sound, since I don't have a background on them.

On February 18 2015 02:05 zlefin wrote:

Do others concur with rsoultin's description of JJB?
I ask because I don't want to base any changes entirely off this in the unlikely event the two of them are mafia.
If others concur with the description, I'm going to give a positive point to JJB, based on rsoultins comments in the last page, which also help reassess JJBs early game (in particular his joke which I didn't like, more info on its normalcy for him ameliorates it).

On February 18 2015 02:23 ElyAs wrote:
Got some time for this !

Reacting to the current train of thought, rsoultin, do you think jjb has started changing his playstyle to include more traditional reads and playstyle analysis ? Or is he really playing differently and more carefully than normal ?

I intend to share my gameplan, I'm reading some filters right now.

On February 18 2015 08:15 The Shining wrote:
Eh. I unfortunately like your response. If there were more inconsistencies in your filter, I might be more inclined to ram you but you're also willing to admit you were wrong and misinterpreted a few things.

Maybe I'm just weary that you're towning me for points that I've addressed that Tere is now scumreading me for. I have a tendency to believe scum give out free townreads in the hopes of earning some towncred from the free townread townie. Might need to stop being so paranoid.

Moving on.




My irl schedule and timing made it difficult to do, but I mentioned before that my vote on Zlefin was because of a lack of thread presence and wanting to see more from him. It really was just a pressure vote, something Trfel even commented on, but I wasn't able to get back in time to get any shenanies done.

The fact that only JJB was on him and against a Hier lynch was another reason for my vote. Was scum going to protect Zlefin as scum or push him for a mislynch as town? In my experience, scum will keep 1 vote on the main wagon(Hier) and 1 off of it to avoid the blame of the mislynch. And I'm sure JJB would've looked slightly better at voting analysis time if we were both on Zlefin, instead of just him once I unvoted.

Tere, my 2 shots? Ely for lacking content and thread presence, I don't see the scumhunting really coming out of him.

And you. For the same reason. Willingness to engage and post looks good on the outside, but you haven't given me anything to work with except for...me? And ElyAs. If I'm right on ElyAs, you're setting yourself up to mislynch me as scum and either back off on your partner or bus him if his push picks up some speed.

Next post is post-Tere filterdive.

On February 26 2015 09:25 Fecalfeast wrote:
Trfel you have to realize that being wrong is VERY common in mafia. If all the vets were right about their reads 100% of the time the game would be no fun since town would win every time.

On March 03 2015 05:46 zlefin wrote:
I see a number of people lying and calling tere/palmar objectively townie. That is simply untrue, or there wouldn't have been so much suspicion. As to the rest, I leave it to the mods.