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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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Simberto
Germany12086 Posts
On January 16 2023 07:10 Manit0u wrote: Does anyone know why Turkey and Hungary are blocking Finland's and Sweden's NATO access? They are far-right countries with major democratic problems being ruled by a quasi-autocrat. My guess is that they want some bribes and concessions. But i thought there already was a round of giving them stuff in summer last year to deal with that? Are they still blocking? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22705 Posts
On January 16 2023 07:10 Manit0u wrote: They are dictatorships using the little leverage they can get to get concessions for whatever takes their fancy.Does anyone know why Turkey and Hungary are blocking Finland's and Sweden's NATO access? I think in the case of Turkey its to do with others not being willing to treat the PKK (Kurdish community in Turkey) as terrorists. No clue what Hungary wants. Its what happens when you have a cooperative group with no way of dealing with members who's ideals and stance dramatically shifts away from the norm. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22705 Posts
On January 16 2023 07:16 Simberto wrote: Turkey is apparently waiting for Sweden to implement certain new laws as part of the concessions, which will take months.They are far-right countries with major democratic problems being ruled by a quasi-autocrat. My guess is that they want some bribes and concessions. But i thought there already was a round of giving them stuff in summer last year to deal with that? Are they still blocking? Hungary is supposedly going to ratify in Feb/March but words are cheap. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On January 16 2023 07:10 Manit0u wrote: Does anyone know why Turkey and Hungary are blocking Finland's and Sweden's NATO access? The tl;dr is that Finland is more or less just waiting for Sweden to be accepted and is unwilling to join alone. Meanwhile Turkey is demanding from Sweden to extradite the journalist Kenes - see below quotes - that would require changing legal things, which Sweden isn't keen on doing if it's just for the sake of getting a seat in NATO. "Turkey’s objections had centred on the countries’ support for the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a group banned in Türkiye as a “terrorist” organisation." "The court rejected Kenes’ request for extradition on the grounds that some of the journalist’s claimed offences were not punishable under Swedish law and that returning home would expose him to political persecution. Following the aborted coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2016, Kenes was granted political refuge in Sweden. He has been charged by Ankara with knowing about the coup attempt and belonging to a terrorist group." https://tfiglobalnews.com/2023/01/10/finally-sweden-and-finland-have-opted-against-joining-nato/ | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18491 Posts
On January 16 2023 07:36 Magic Powers wrote: The tl;dr is that Finland is more or less just waiting for Sweden to be accepted and is unwilling to join alone. Meanwhile Turkey is demanding from Sweden to extradite the journalist Kenes - see below quotes - that would require changing legal things, which Sweden isn't keen on doing if it's just for the sake of getting a seat in NATO. "Turkey’s objections had centred on the countries’ support for the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a group banned in Türkiye as a “terrorist” organisation." "The court rejected Kenes’ request for extradition on the grounds that some of the journalist’s claimed offences were not punishable under Swedish law and that returning home would expose him to political persecution. Following the aborted coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2016, Kenes was granted political refuge in Sweden. He has been charged by Ankara with knowing about the coup attempt and belonging to a terrorist group." https://tfiglobalnews.com/2023/01/10/finally-sweden-and-finland-have-opted-against-joining-nato/ What on earth is that source?! Do better.... like at least cite rt.com! | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On January 16 2023 07:56 Acrofales wrote: What on earth is that source?! Do better.... like at least cite rt.com! Do you have an objection with the report itself or just with the website that I sourced it from? If the report itself contains misleading information, please feel free to point it out. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18491 Posts
On January 16 2023 08:13 Magic Powers wrote: Do you have an objection with the report itself or just with the website that I sourced it from? If the report itself contains misleading information, please feel free to point it out. Well, I didn't get more than a few sentences in due to the clunky and propagandist writing style, but something about Sweden and Finland panicking as Russia conquered large parts of Ukraine? | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24511 Posts
On January 16 2023 07:36 Magic Powers wrote: The tl;dr is that Finland is more or less just waiting for Sweden to be accepted and is unwilling to join alone. Meanwhile Turkey is demanding from Sweden to extradite the journalist Kenes - see below quotes - that would require changing legal things, which Sweden isn't keen on doing if it's just for the sake of getting a seat in NATO. "Turkey’s objections had centred on the countries’ support for the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a group banned in Türkiye as a “terrorist” organisation." "The court rejected Kenes’ request for extradition on the grounds that some of the journalist’s claimed offences were not punishable under Swedish law and that returning home would expose him to political persecution. Following the aborted coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2016, Kenes was granted political refuge in Sweden. He has been charged by Ankara with knowing about the coup attempt and belonging to a terrorist group." https://tfiglobalnews.com/2023/01/10/finally-sweden-and-finland-have-opted-against-joining-nato/ Labeling them "terrorists" is just the tip of the iceberg. I'll say "in addition" Turkey wants to invade Syria and stomp out any hopes for a Kurdistan because it would cleave off a significant portion of natural resources from Turkey because it's under the land lived on by Kurds in Turkey that would likely become officially Kurdistan. This is an outgrowth of (among other things) the destabilization caused by the invasion of Iraq and colonial border drawing. As I understand it (and I'm certainly no expert), basically, prior to the invasion Kurdish people were sufficiently subjugated in the region to prevent such aspirations from materializing. But since the invasion of Iraq, Turkey has increasingly grown fearful of such and is acting accordingly. I don't want to derail, but as far as why Turkey is holding things up, there's more to it than just a labeling/legal issue. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On January 16 2023 08:32 Acrofales wrote: Well, I didn't get more than a few sentences in due to the clunky and propagandist writing style, but something about Sweden and Finland panicking as Russia conquered large parts of Ukraine? I may be completely overlooking something but in my understanding this is not being said anywhere in the text. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On January 16 2023 09:44 JimmiC wrote: Is there any coverage of the apartment strike in Russia? Do they blame Ukraine or just ignore it? They quote Ukrainian sources, those give enough material for coverage by sparking a controversy within Ukraine. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/15/01/2023/63c323659a794756da9e6fb5 https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/63c3b73f9a794776eaf2b8cd https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/63c3f2e69a794782ef27d0cc | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On January 16 2023 10:26 JimmiC wrote: Interesting to read thanks for the links. Im guessing something was lost in translation because this is quite the quote!  Dnipro mayor Filatov strongly dislikes Arestovich, it's not his first offensive statement (translation is 100% correct btw) towards Arestovich during the course of the war at least (he once called Arestovich a "talking ass", for example (link to original statement is in the article, it's just the world "ass" is censored there, so I'm giving this one for correct translation)). I guess it's some kind of internal Ukrainian power struggle showing off. | ||
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Will probably be confirmed, if at all true that is, in the coming days like Kherson was. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On January 16 2023 11:46 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Jesus... If this was a regular Military observation the entire, Division(?), would have been rotated out and essentially recognized as destroyed and not fit for anything. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1614757299217915904 Will probably be confirmed, if at all true that is, in the coming days like Kherson was. https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1614637895477862401 30k is more like 1,5-2 divisions. Soviet Cold war-era Motor Rifle Division had 13k men, and US one was a bit larger in numbers IIRC, not sure about current ones. If we combine this with previous assesments of Wagner having 10000 specialists and 40000 convicts (which kinda aligns), this would put Wagner current numbers to 20000, which is around 5-6 brigades. Based on this OSINT map https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=48.64843068978674,38.12963041531258&z=11 Ukraine has 20 brigades and a lot of separate detachments in the area, while Wagner is supported only by 2 Motor Rifle Brigades and one Airborne Division (which is around 2 regular Motor Rifle brigades in size, with less heavier equipment). So 9-10 brigades overall. So Russian forces in the area are supposed to be 2 times less in numbers than Ukrainian ones, which would make any kind of offensive operations impossible. | ||
zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
On January 16 2023 11:46 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Will probably be confirmed, if at all true that is, in the coming days like Kherson was. https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1614637895477862401 Not saying an offensive in the Kremina region won't happen eventually. But Ukraine has been reported to be "at the outskirts of Kremina/Svatove", "in fire control of the P66 highway" etc every 2 weeks since September. Likely these are probing / scout units, likely from both sides, getting in contact with the enemy. Actual progress from either side in the area hasn't happened. | ||
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warding
Portugal2397 Posts
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Taelshin
Canada420 Posts
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0x64
Finland4659 Posts
On January 16 2023 17:21 Taelshin wrote: It's hard to accept hard numbers about Wagner group losses/numbers and prisoner's to Main fighting force seriously when they are coming from the Kyiv Independent. Lot's of propaganda about this war out there right now, I think we'd all best to wait and see what actually happens on the battlefield then believing random tweet's and obviously partisan sources. And is not a dig at you StealthBlue I know your reporting what you see and you've obviously got the apt for finding sources and are plugged in enough to bring them here which is really impressive. True, but it is hard to understand how Wagner has been able to push for so long with untrained and underequipped units, so there are few equations and few unknowns. Some unknown may have been assumed higher than what is possible. Wagner seems to be squeezed from both sides. For th past weeks, they communicated a lot about "gives us the tools, we will do the job" and "the regular military is useless". This got them the prisoners. Then the message shifted to "We are running out of ammo" and the final result seems like a capture of a small town of 10000 people. On the other hand, new anti-wagner General put in command indicates that Wagner's work is seen as unsuccessful. I wonder how Wagner group will end... Such a bond vilain. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18491 Posts
On January 16 2023 08:54 Magic Powers wrote: I may be completely overlooking something but in my understanding this is not being said anywhere in the text. I opened up the article again (giving it another click  ) and I quote:With Ukraine gradually losing its ground to Russia, tensions take over the two Nordic nations. Sweden and Finland started hurtling down the path and fast-tracked their bid to join NATO but Turkey made sure to dash their dreams in every way possible. My first interpretation, due to the use of present tense, rather than past tense, I actually thought it was referring to right now and was even more boggled, but by the time I quoted it I had already figured out this sentence was referring to the past (when Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership), but even then, I don't really see how Russia's progress had much to do with anything (and if I recall correctly, Russia had already been routed from around Kiev and was starting to be pushed back in the east as well by the time the request was made). Finland and Sweden weren't worried about Russian progress, but about the very fact that Russia had proven itself a warmonger who would happily invade its democratic neighbours under flimsy pretexts. "Remaining neutral" was not a useful position under such conditions. | ||
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