NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Poland can send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, German vice chancellor says Because the tanks are German-made, it has been unclear whether Warsaw needed Berlin’s OK to transfer them.
Germany should not stand in the way if Poland decides to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Thursday, seemingly putting the ball in Warsaw’s court on supplying Kyiv with Western tanks.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said Wednesday that a Polish “company of Leopard tanks for Ukraine will be transferred as part of international coalition building,” adding that “such a decision is already [taken] in Poland.” However, it was unclear whether Warsaw would get Berlin’s approval, given the Leopard 2 tanks are made in Germany and have restrictions about being re-exported.
Habeck on Thursday sought to clear up the confusion, arguing Berlin should approve a potential Polish request.
“There is a difference between making a decision for oneself and preventing the decision of others,” said the vice chancellor, who also oversees arms export controls as economy minister. “And accordingly, Germany should not stand in the way when other countries make decisions to support Ukraine, regardless of what decision Germany makes.”
It's good to see a clear statement. Earlier I saw a few unsourced or wrongly sourced claims that Germany intends to block the transfers unless the US agrees to give Ukraine Abramses too. You can't spread that kind of rumours accidentally, it had to be deliberate misinformation.
There is no clear statement on the topic and your framing it as confirmation is about as much misinformation as those claiming that Germany is refusing those deals.
This is Habecks personal opinion which he offered in a TV interview. This is not a German policy statement. In fact, nobody knows the German official policy, simply because it has not yet been made.
On January 13 2023 18:38 Mikau313 wrote: There is no world where the vice chancellor makes such a definitive statement in public if it isn't the official government position.
It is exactly the opposite. He is trying to increase the pressure to make this an official government position. But it currently is not. The German government consists of 3 parties with quite different interests, and even in those parties there are a ton of different opinions. Making those statements in public is just an attempt to collect public and media support for his opinion.
Which undoubtedly he is getting. It also raises the stakes massively for Scholz (who is the intended receiver of those statements) to oppose them. Then again, Scholz has been proven as a stubborn guy, who does not care too much to let the bus run over anyone who throws himself in front of it. E.g. when the defense minister claimed that all those Marders can't and won't be delivered from Bundeswehr stocks and Scholz immediately publicly announced that this is exactly what will happen.
But yes, as a whole, everything is pointing at Germany fooling around for a bit more but then in the end agreeing to those deals (most likely they are just preparing a nice storytelling version for everyone to save face in this) But claiming it has happened yet is just wrong and the age of Twitter news is absolutely not helping.
I think the current standoff is making people anxious about what's going to happen next and they'd like to have something to cling to, so they over-interpret people's words. Information from Ukrainian officials has been sparse, I believe as a result of the current policy of secrecy before the next stage that's being cooked up.
In an interview with the head of Ukraine’s armed forces (Dec 15th), General Valery Zaluzhny says:
I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVS, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades. I get what I get, but it is less than what I need. It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory.
in the context of a potential Ukraine offensive. I wonder if anyone has kept track of how many tanks and Bradley-analogues Ukraine has received since December.
Also, recently there's been talk of Russia mobilizing another 500,000 troops, from Ukrainian intelligence officials and from the youtuber 'inside russia'. The last question from the interview is insightful:
TE: What do you make of Russia’s mobilisation?
VZ: Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.
I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVS, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades. I get what I get, but it is less than what I need. It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory.
in the context of a potential Ukraine offensive. I wonder if anyone has kept track of how many tanks and Bradley-analogues Ukraine has received since December.
Russia's gained Soledar. The onslaught is continuing, with attacks already happening at Sil. At this point, I would assume most forces retreated to Bakhmut.
On January 13 2023 06:08 Sent. wrote: Germany says it won't block Leopard transfers from Poland.
Poland can send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, German vice chancellor says Because the tanks are German-made, it has been unclear whether Warsaw needed Berlin’s OK to transfer them.
Germany should not stand in the way if Poland decides to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Thursday, seemingly putting the ball in Warsaw’s court on supplying Kyiv with Western tanks.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said Wednesday that a Polish “company of Leopard tanks for Ukraine will be transferred as part of international coalition building,” adding that “such a decision is already [taken] in Poland.” However, it was unclear whether Warsaw would get Berlin’s approval, given the Leopard 2 tanks are made in Germany and have restrictions about being re-exported.
Habeck on Thursday sought to clear up the confusion, arguing Berlin should approve a potential Polish request.
“There is a difference between making a decision for oneself and preventing the decision of others,” said the vice chancellor, who also oversees arms export controls as economy minister. “And accordingly, Germany should not stand in the way when other countries make decisions to support Ukraine, regardless of what decision Germany makes.”
It's good to see a clear statement. Earlier I saw a few unsourced or wrongly sourced claims that Germany intends to block the transfers unless the US agrees to give Ukraine Abramses too. You can't spread that kind of rumours accidentally, it had to be deliberate misinformation.
There is no clear statement on the topic and your framing it as confirmation is about as much misinformation as those claiming that Germany is refusing those deals.
This is Habecks personal opinion which he offered in a TV interview. This is not a German policy statement. In fact, nobody knows the German official policy, simply because it has not yet been made.
Yeah, I should write "German Vice Chancellor says his country shouldn't...".
On January 14 2023 00:20 plasmidghost wrote: Russia's gained Soledar. The onslaught is continuing, with attacks already happening at Sil. At this point, I would assume most forces retreated to Bakhmut.
No, according to the reports they withdrew to a second line of defense along the railway just west of Soledar. Russians still have a long way to go before Bakhmut.
On January 14 2023 00:20 plasmidghost wrote: Russia's gained Soledar. The onslaught is continuing, with attacks already happening at Sil. At this point, I would assume most forces retreated to Bakhmut.
No, according to the reports they withdrew to a second line of defense along the railway just west of Soledar. Russians still have a long way to go before Bakhmut.
Ah, good to know. I saw that it's still a good dozen kilometers away but I wasn't sure where else would make good defensive lines
Soledar is a possible source of a breakthrough but Bakhmut to the South and the Kharkiv offensive to the north would make it a trap to send any significant forces through the gap in the line, not to mention the major defenses that were dug in the fall in anticipation to the bakhmut soledar line falling would just be the next line up.
On January 14 2023 00:20 plasmidghost wrote: Russia's gained Soledar. The onslaught is continuing, with attacks already happening at Sil. At this point, I would assume most forces retreated to Bakhmut.
No, according to the reports they withdrew to a second line of defense along the railway just west of Soledar. Russians still have a long way to go before Bakhmut.
Ah, good to know. I saw that it's still a good dozen kilometers away but I wasn't sure where else would make good defensive lines
It's not dozens of kilometers away. More like 500m to 1km. Russians are moving at a snail's pace and have big difficulties cracking Ukrainian defense.
On January 14 2023 00:20 plasmidghost wrote: Russia's gained Soledar. The onslaught is continuing, with attacks already happening at Sil. At this point, I would assume most forces retreated to Bakhmut.
No, according to the reports they withdrew to a second line of defense along the railway just west of Soledar. Russians still have a long way to go before Bakhmut.
Ah, good to know. I saw that it's still a good dozen kilometers away but I wasn't sure where else would make good defensive lines
It's not dozens of kilometers away. More like 500m to 1km. Russians are moving at a snail's pace and have big difficulties cracking Ukrainian defense.
I thought Soledar to Bakhmut was about 12km? That's based on mapping it out on Google so I may have done something wrong. I will watch the video when I get a chance to in the morning
On January 14 2023 00:20 plasmidghost wrote: Russia's gained Soledar. The onslaught is continuing, with attacks already happening at Sil. At this point, I would assume most forces retreated to Bakhmut.
No, according to the reports they withdrew to a second line of defense along the railway just west of Soledar. Russians still have a long way to go before Bakhmut.
Ah, good to know. I saw that it's still a good dozen kilometers away but I wasn't sure where else would make good defensive lines
It's not dozens of kilometers away. More like 500m to 1km. Russians are moving at a snail's pace and have big difficulties cracking Ukrainian defense.
I thought Soledar to Bakhmut was about 12km? That's based on mapping it out on Google so I may have done something wrong. I will watch the video when I get a chance to in the morning
I was talking about how far from Soledar the Ukrainian defense lines are now. It will be a long while before Russia can think about moving into Bakhmut since their foothold in Soledar isn't even certain at this point (and then they'd still need to secure their flanks and capture several smaller settlements along the way). I don't know why people think capturing Soledar means that Bakhmut is soon to follow...
Like you mentioned, Soledar is 12km from Bakhmut, considering that it takes Russian forces months to capture 1-2km of ground you can do the maths.
On January 14 2023 00:20 plasmidghost wrote: Russia's gained Soledar. The onslaught is continuing, with attacks already happening at Sil. At this point, I would assume most forces retreated to Bakhmut.
No, according to the reports they withdrew to a second line of defense along the railway just west of Soledar. Russians still have a long way to go before Bakhmut.
Ah, good to know. I saw that it's still a good dozen kilometers away but I wasn't sure where else would make good defensive lines
It's not dozens of kilometers away. More like 500m to 1km. Russians are moving at a snail's pace and have big difficulties cracking Ukrainian defense.
I thought Soledar to Bakhmut was about 12km? That's based on mapping it out on Google so I may have done something wrong. I will watch the video when I get a chance to in the morning
I was talking about how far from Soledar the Ukrainian defense lines are now. It will be a long while before Russia can think about moving into Bakhmut since their foothold in Soledar isn't even certain at this point (and then they'd still need to secure their flanks and capture several smaller settlements along the way). I don't know why people think capturing Soledar means that Bakhmut is soon to follow...
Like you mentioned, Soledar is 12km from Bakhmut, considering that it takes Russian forces months to capture 1-2km of ground you can do the maths.
Ah, my bad, that makes sense, especially given that Ukraine is still firing missiles at forces in Soledar
EPT
