EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 348
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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17267 Posts
Good guys Belarusians retrieving the body of a deceased Ukrainian soldier from the field. I assume plenty of the bodies there are also Russian, seeing the obvious difference in gear they're using. Ukrainian body kinda stands out. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On January 13 2023 01:15 plasmidghost wrote: Ukraine claims 100+ Wagner mercs killed in one strike. How many people do they even have left at this point? I see video after video of squads of 10 or more being taken out but they keep coming. I know the recent estimate was around 50k mercs with 28% of that number KIA or WIA, but if they keep being killed, I would assume that Wagner is running out of people at some point soon https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1613427713762811906 They have a semi endless source. The Domestic prison population. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21691 Posts
On January 13 2023 01:15 plasmidghost wrote: Ukraine claims 100+ Wagner mercs killed in one strike. How many people do they even have left at this point? I see video after video of squads of 10 or more being taken out but they keep coming. I know the recent estimate was around 50k mercs with 28% of that number KIA or WIA, but if they keep being killed, I would assume that Wagner is running out of people at some point soon https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1613427713762811906 Is that 50k just trained profession soldiers (and maybe support staff) or does that 50k include the 'conscripted/volunteer human target practice dummies' they have gained since the start of this war. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13953 Posts
considering they can roll in deserters or disenters into that second group they can lose tens of thousands without careing at all. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
On January 13 2023 01:39 Gorsameth wrote: Is that 50k just trained profession soldiers (and maybe support staff) or does that 50k include the 'conscripted/volunteer human target practice dummies' they have gained since the start of this war. The 50k includes the convicts they've added since the war started. I guess the can just keep adding in more of them across Russia. It's fucked | ||
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0x64
Finland4557 Posts
The question is actually who will pay for reconstruction and how do we stop Russia from entering a never ending loop of attacking, losing against the world, being imposed peace, rebuilding military... Anyone who thinks Russia has no trade off in this war is blind. I often notice Ardias dodging the effect this war has and pointing at how the reporting is overwhelmingly positive on the western side. Relatives in St Petersburg are reporting a not so bright picture even if things cost 2-3x less. Pensions are often something around 100$, so even with cheaper prices and free energy, when you balance at such a sharp edge, a slight change can mean death. Russia's leaders know very well that a hungry population doesn't rebel. Saddam did the sam with Kurds in Iraq. Keep everyone worried about their next meal, they will not worry about the war or other corruption. The danger of such dictatures, is that they make it very easy to not get problems if you abiding. So people seeing some getting in troubles can only think that they are stupid for trying something. | ||
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ZeroByte13
767 Posts
Of course, many products disappeared and not all of them either are available in "grey market" or have somewhat okayish alternatives. But strangely I haven't heard many complaints about this - I guess most people already have what they need, like computers/TV/car. They will notice it more when it's time to buy something new and there's not so much choice, of course. Who really does suffer? - people who had/has business that is integrated with (or relies on) western partners - people who needs western medicine - people with active anti-war and/or anti-goverment position. - people who need (or reallly-really want) to travel often and to many different countries | ||
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Sermokala
United States13953 Posts
On January 13 2023 02:01 0x64 wrote: It's fucked but those idiots will lose sooner or later. The question is actually who will pay for reconstruction and how do we stop Russia from entering a never ending loop of attacking, losing against the world, being imposed peace, rebuilding military... Anyone who thinks Russia has no trade off in this war is blind. I often notice Ardias dodging the effect this war has and pointing at how the reporting is overwhelmingly positive on the western side. Relatives in St Petersburg are reporting a not so bright picture even if things cost 2-3x less. Pensions are often something around 100$, so even with cheaper prices and free energy, when you balance at such a sharp edge, a slight change can mean death. Russia's leaders know very well that a hungry population doesn't rebel. Saddam did the sam with Kurds in Iraq. Keep everyone worried about their next meal, they will not worry about the war or other corruption. The danger of such dictatures, is that they make it very easy to not get problems if you abiding. So people seeing some getting in troubles can only think that they are stupid for trying something. Blackrock and other hedge funds will pay for the rebuilding. The US is sitting like $2.5 trillion overnight with the fed beacuse they have no idea what to do with it. If Russia leaves and Guarantees about them not being allowed to invade again money will flow into the region to get things cheap for when Ukraine recovers and can integrate into the EU. | ||
KwarK
United States42718 Posts
On January 13 2023 03:23 Sermokala wrote: Blackrock and other hedge funds will pay for the rebuilding. The US is sitting like $2.5 trillion overnight with the fed beacuse they have no idea what to do with it. If Russia leaves and Guarantees about them not being allowed to invade again money will flow into the region to get things cheap for when Ukraine recovers and can integrate into the EU. Oil and gas tariffs could be used. Let’s say Russia has a cost of production of $20, the market price is $50, but there are no alternative buyers to Germany (because the pipe goes to Germany). Germany could put a $10 tariff on gas and Russia would rationally sell at $40 (to price it at market post tariff so that someone would buy it) because the sale volume is wholly marginal and $40 > $20 cost. That $10 could be used for Ukraine. Putin would never agree to this kind of deal but his successor may. If it’s a choice between billions of euros cash money for shit that comes out of the ground or trying to build loyalty of oligarchs without cash it’s not a choice. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1056 Posts
On January 13 2023 03:23 Sermokala wrote: Blackrock and other hedge funds will pay for the rebuilding. This. If safety can be relatively guaranteed, there'll be no problem to rebuild the country. Ukraine has tons of ressources, gas and minerals among them. Qualified workers from all levels of education are available. The agricultural production is huge with lots of potential for modernisation. Gas investments were already planned, the fields are explored, then Russia took Crimea. And Ukraine will need the hedgefunds unfortunately and they will gladly come. Ukraines got to pay back some money, the US military aid is a lend/lease comparable to US aid to Britain in WW2 afaik. Every bullet, missile and piece of equipment is debt. (It took Britain until 2020 to cleanse the bill.) Still not a bad deal compared to the alternative imho. It is what it is. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9198 Posts
Poland can send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, German vice chancellor says Because the tanks are German-made, it has been unclear whether Warsaw needed Berlin’s OK to transfer them. Germany should not stand in the way if Poland decides to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Thursday, seemingly putting the ball in Warsaw’s court on supplying Kyiv with Western tanks. Polish President Andrzej Duda said Wednesday that a Polish “company of Leopard tanks for Ukraine will be transferred as part of international coalition building,” adding that “such a decision is already [taken] in Poland.” However, it was unclear whether Warsaw would get Berlin’s approval, given the Leopard 2 tanks are made in Germany and have restrictions about being re-exported. Habeck on Thursday sought to clear up the confusion, arguing Berlin should approve a potential Polish request. “There is a difference between making a decision for oneself and preventing the decision of others,” said the vice chancellor, who also oversees arms export controls as economy minister. “And accordingly, Germany should not stand in the way when other countries make decisions to support Ukraine, regardless of what decision Germany makes.” https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-leopard-tank-ukraine-war-germany-vice-chancellor-robert-habeck/ It's good to see a clear statement. Earlier I saw a few unsourced or wrongly sourced claims that Germany intends to block the transfers unless the US agrees to give Ukraine Abramses too. You can't spread that kind of rumours accidentally, it had to be deliberate misinformation. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On January 13 2023 02:01 0x64 wrote: It's fucked but those idiots will lose sooner or later. The question is actually who will pay for reconstruction and how do we stop Russia from entering a never ending loop of attacking, losing against the world, being imposed peace, rebuilding military... Anyone who thinks Russia has no trade off in this war is blind. I often notice Ardias dodging the effect this war has and pointing at how the reporting is overwhelmingly positive on the western side. Relatives in St Petersburg are reporting a not so bright picture even if things cost 2-3x less. Pensions are often something around 100$, so even with cheaper prices and free energy, when you balance at such a sharp edge, a slight change can mean death. Russia's leaders know very well that a hungry population doesn't rebel. Saddam did the sam with Kurds in Iraq. Keep everyone worried about their next meal, they will not worry about the war or other corruption. The danger of such dictatures, is that they make it very easy to not get problems if you abiding. So people seeing some getting in troubles can only think that they are stupid for trying something. I've stated my position on the matter of concequences of any possible results of the conflict long ago in this thread and I don't see the need to repeat it over and over. In short - there is no good outcome for Russia and Russians in near term, either it would be victory, stalemate or loss. Question is which of the bad would be the worst. Also there are too many people here with views that don't align with mine, and I have neither time not desire to continously debate over subjects that were already covered in previous discussions. I post things here in which I take interest - which are military matters and some info about life in Russia in general, where it's kinda relevant to the topic of war, economy or politics. I'm pointing out report topic (and generally using Western/Ukraine sources on that) because there are both logic and information gaps in this overwhelmingly positive reporting, and it's on a subject I'm interested to spend time discussing (which is as I've mentioned, military matters). About pension size - I know pensions differ quite heavily from region to region and the particular person's previous jobs and time he spent on them combined. But 100$ seem to be a stretch. Though I checked a bit, and it seems to be a misunderstanding of Russian pension legislation. I'll put it under spoiler. + Show Spoiler + Link on the basics of it. So basically there are two kinds of pension, social and insurance. Social, which is when you worked officially less than 15 years (also you could be in child-caring vacation up to 6 years, which is when you retain your job position, but go on a vacation to raise an child from 0 to 3 year old), is indeed slighlty less than 100$ at current exchange rate. But as per recent legislation it is automatically brought up to the living minimun standards for a region for the pensioners. For St. Petersburg it's currently around 175$. As for insurance one - if you have enough years of work, you get a fixed minimum of around 115$ and then there are complicated scores based on your previous salary, kind of work, years of work, additional factors etc. There are special pensions calculators for that. For example, if I continue to work for, let's say, 25 years officially (I'm currently 30 years old, pension age is 60, but let's say I do some unofficial jobs), with no kids and same salary of 550$, I'll be theoretically getting somewhere around 300$ pension. If I'll work 35 years (until 65, which is five years more than pension age in northern areas) with a salary of 1000$ (which is quite achieveable, I have quite a lot of friends with such or higher) - I'll be getting 700$ pension. So it could differ a lot based on your lifetime experience. Another example - my grandmother, who is 81, now getting around 430$, plus some discounts on utility services. There is an increase if you are 80+ years old. Back on the war topic - Ukraine sent one of their most recently formed brigades(77th Airmobile) to hold the line in Soledar https://censor.net/en/video_news/3392986/paratroopers_of_77th_and_46th_brigades_hold_positions_in_soledar_zelensky_video Brigade was formed somewhere in October-December period and at least one battalion was trained in UK. Last time units like these were saved in reserve for Balakleya offensive. Based on reports from Russian side, it attempted unsucessful counterattack along with 46th Airmobile brigade, and was armed with French VAB APCs and UKs Wolfhound MRAPs (kinda make sense for unit titled "airmobile"). | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4115 Posts
On January 13 2023 06:08 Sent. wrote: Germany says it won't block Leopard transfers from Poland. It's good to see a clear statement. Earlier I saw a few unsourced or wrongly sourced claims that Germany intends to block the transfers unless the US agrees to give Ukraine Abramses too. You can't spread that kind of rumours accidentally, it had to be deliberate misinformation. I also read that somewhere, didn't seem credible. I think it was already said that they're currently debating allowing the transfer. There is no doubt a great effort being made by pro-Russian groups to spread as much misinformation as possible. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On January 13 2023 10:58 plasmidghost wrote: Prigozhin may have shot himself in the foot by declaring Soledar completely captured. He's now sent Wagner scrambling to take control of the rest of the town, causing tons of losses for no real purpose as the mercs get picked off by artillery, VOGs, and snipers. They'll probably take over Soledar, but pay an unnecessarily massive price. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1613671178563977217 What I can certainly say that first video in this tweet of AFU in Soledar is not a new one. It was published in different Telegram channels on Monday, when city wasn't declared captured yet. There is also a geoposition for it. https://t.me/boris_rozhin/74790?single On the tg-channel being quoted - I can only say that it has strong anti-Russian government position, whether it's really Russian or Ukrainian, since while it mostly digging dirt on different Russian authorities and events, it also regularly quotes Zelensky's statements and report about Kiev being under drone attack - I don't know. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11519 Posts
On January 13 2023 10:58 plasmidghost wrote: Prigozhin may have shot himself in the foot by declaring Soledar completely captured. He's now sent Wagner scrambling to take control of the rest of the town, causing tons of losses for no real purpose as the mercs get picked off by artillery, VOGs, and snipers. They'll probably take over Soledar, but pay an unnecessarily massive price. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1613671178563977217 This post started really awesome and then got a lot worse. Each of the following parts of the first sentence reduces how good it is when you read it. Prigozhin may have shot himself in the foot by declaring... | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
On January 13 2023 17:07 Simberto wrote: This post started really awesome and then got a lot worse. Each of the following parts of the first sentence reduces how good it is when you read it. Prigozhin may have shot himself in the foot by declaring... Lmao yeah, if only I could've left it at the first five words | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
Just saw that apparently battles are still ongoing in Soledar. Not sure of the scale | ||
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