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On January 17 2023 17:22 r00ty wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2023 16:48 pmp10 wrote:On January 17 2023 15:53 Lmui wrote:
Thinking about it, what's the next "escalation" angle from the west once Ukraine gets some mixture of armor.
Is it ATACMS?
Ukraine is taking quite a bit of damage from missile attacks that they can't retaliate against, does it make sense to give them a means to counter at least the shorter ground based systems? Most likely aircraft, if west ever dares going that far. For political reason these can be sold as 'defensive' as opposed to long range missiles. That could make the biggest difference in western arsenal as Ukrainian airforce has been badly attrited away by the fighting. You can find the explanation why the west sending jets is nonsense every couple pages in this thread. A US supercarrier needs 2500 people just to maintain its 80-90 airplanes and helicopters. Every hour of flight requires 15-20 hours of maintenance on average by highly qualified people. The plane is not taken apart after every mission, but unless you want a mission risking flying paperweight, you gotta get the logistics together.
And think about the logistical effort for an ICBM or a nuclear submarine.
Not that it matters to the situation at hand.
Any logistical chains can be build given time IF the will is there.
If Ukraine can receive Sea Kings and somehow maintain them they could as well receive Gripens.
The question is more along the lines of does the west want to make a difference.
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On January 17 2023 17:09 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2023 05:02 Erasme wrote:On January 17 2023 02:35 plasmidghost wrote:
Am I right in being concerned about the advances Russia keeps making? It keeps looking like despite immense losses, it's not stopping them from advancing and I don't know when or if it'll stop at this rate
They went from "Taking Kiev will be a glorious victory" to "Taking some village with 10k inhabitants is a glorious victory"... What was the population of Verdun in 1914? Months of reports comming out of the Bahmut/Soledar from pro-Kiev sources of up to 400 casualties a day obviously had merit in showing the true state at the front line. Months of being at a 7 to 1 disadvantage in heavy artillery is the reason why Soledar fell and Bahmut is on the brink of encirclement even though Kiev controlled forces had a 3 to 2 advantage in commited manpower to the area. What was the point of throwing away so many men holding onto cities of so-so strategic value? If we know only 3% of casualties in the conflict are from small arms close combat with the vast majority being from artillery was it really worth it to commit so many men to the defence at such a disatvantage? 20-25k casualties just in Soledar, which comes to around 6k dead (over the many months its been contested). Bahmut is stages worse and not yet over. It was never about taking a 10k town or even a square meter of land. It was about destroying as much of the Ukranian military as possible before the next offensive. How much the Kiev government can replase these losses with the 8th wave of mobilisation going on remains to be seen. Though that will be easier to replace than armor.
You can't half-way a defense against such fierce attacks by a formidable enemy, either commit to it or you don't. Bakhmut is a very important region, although not the most important in Ukraine, still important enough to require a strong defense. Not committing more troops to it would've meant surrendering it.
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On January 17 2023 17:09 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2023 05:02 Erasme wrote:On January 17 2023 02:35 plasmidghost wrote:Am I right in being concerned about the advances Russia keeps making? It keeps looking like despite immense losses, it's not stopping them from advancing and I don't know when or if it'll stop at this rate https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1615037710573371418 They went from "Taking Kiev will be a glorious victory" to "Taking some village with 10k inhabitants is a glorious victory"... What was the population of Verdun in 1914? Months of reports comming out of the Bahmut/Soledar from pro-Kiev sources of up to 400 casualties a day obviously had merit in showing the true state at the front line. Months of being at a 7 to 1 disadvantage in heavy artillery is the reason why Soledar fell and Bahmut is on the brink of encirclement even though Kiev controlled forces had a 3 to 2 advantage in commited manpower to the area. What was the point of throwing away so many men holding onto cities of so-so strategic value? If we know only 3% of casualties in the conflict are from small arms close combat with the vast majority being from artillery was it really worth it to commit so many men to the defence at such a disatvantage? 20-25k casualties just in Soledar, which comes to around 6k dead (over the many months its been contested). Bahmut is stages worse and not yet over. It was never about taking a 10k town or even a square meter of land. It was about destroying as much of the Ukranian military as possible before the next offensive. How much the Kiev government can replase these losses with the 8th wave of mobilisation going on remains to be seen. Though that will be easier to replace than armor.
So we're assuming the guys making tactical blunder after tactical blunder since Feb 24 and who were now throwing prison zombie wave after prison zombie wave into the Soledar/Bakhmut meatgrinder are outsmarting the other side?
I'm not claiming the opposite, but I think we're at a stage in the war where information on what's going on on the battlefield is difficult to assess. We also have little idea of how strong each side will come out in spring. What I would not bet on, however, would be the Russians now getting their stuff together and tactically outsmarting the Ukrainians.
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Oil and gas prices keep declining, they've been at pre-war levels for a while now. The Euro is currently recovering as well, and the USD is still strong. The winter is very mild at least here in Austria. We had no more recent blackouts. Things are looking good in these regards, we can be optimistic.
It should be noted that the Ruble is also doing well at the moment. The sanctions against Russia appear to be working mostly on an industrial level, which is good enough reason to keep them up, but unfortunately it's not a slam dunk for Ukraine and its allies, at least for now.
If the war is to be won, the main focus has to stay on the military effort. Ukraine needs more stuff, better stuff, more training, more intel, more donations, just more of everything, and additionally the sanctions against Russia have to continue.
I do still believe that eventually Ukraine needs bombers to complete their mission. I very much hope this can be done in the coming years.
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On January 17 2023 20:11 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2023 17:09 zeo wrote:On January 17 2023 05:02 Erasme wrote:On January 17 2023 02:35 plasmidghost wrote:Am I right in being concerned about the advances Russia keeps making? It keeps looking like despite immense losses, it's not stopping them from advancing and I don't know when or if it'll stop at this rate https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1615037710573371418 They went from "Taking Kiev will be a glorious victory" to "Taking some village with 10k inhabitants is a glorious victory"... What was the population of Verdun in 1914? Months of reports comming out of the Bahmut/Soledar from pro-Kiev sources of up to 400 casualties a day obviously had merit in showing the true state at the front line. Months of being at a 7 to 1 disadvantage in heavy artillery is the reason why Soledar fell and Bahmut is on the brink of encirclement even though Kiev controlled forces had a 3 to 2 advantage in commited manpower to the area. What was the point of throwing away so many men holding onto cities of so-so strategic value? If we know only 3% of casualties in the conflict are from small arms close combat with the vast majority being from artillery was it really worth it to commit so many men to the defence at such a disatvantage? 20-25k casualties just in Soledar, which comes to around 6k dead (over the many months its been contested). Bahmut is stages worse and not yet over. It was never about taking a 10k town or even a square meter of land. It was about destroying as much of the Ukranian military as possible before the next offensive. How much the Kiev government can replase these losses with the 8th wave of mobilisation going on remains to be seen. Though that will be easier to replace than armor. You can't half-way a defense against such fierce attacks by a formidable enemy, either commit to it or you don't. Bakhmut is a very important region, although not the most important in Ukraine, still important enough to require a strong defense. Not committing more troops to it would've meant surrendering it.
Yes, Bahmut was important as a second line of defence. But when they lost defensive positions on their flanks and were forced into a funnel like sitting ducks it should have been time to fall back to favorable positions. If their general staff knew it would be impossible to retake those key heights around the city because they were out heavy-gunned 7:1 then it borders on criminal to push even more troops to die in a lost city. Over 500 left to die inside Soledar, every day Wagner posts new piles of dead bodies from inside the town. Having 1k casualties and pulling out to better defencive positions with heavy weapons intact is better than having 25k casualties and pulling a broken army to better defencive positions when you are totally outgunned. And Bahmut has many more troops than Soledar ever did.
Seversk is now in a very bad position without Soledar, its irrational to throw more troops in to defend those flanks and risk all those soldiers being encircled. Conscripts are not disposable, they have families and loved ones that will ask questions about why their husband/brother/father was sacrificed for a lost position so a politician could boast about 'not one step back'
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You can't just "fall back". If you do that, you get hunted down and that means surrendering even more territory. How far back can you retreat until you run out of space - or worse, invite further offensives? Why retreat at all then? It must be more advantageous to you to surrender territory than it is for the enemy to claim it, otherwise you're just surrendering it for an insufficient reason.
Bakhmut is clearly one of the best positions to hold, as can be proven by the miniscule advances Russia has made in that region and the relative value of the region. It's a very important region to hold. Ukraine was forced to retreat from other positions in far worse scenarios.
Basically what you're saying is effectively the same as advising Ukraine to surrender and lay down their arms entirely. It makes no sense.
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On January 17 2023 22:00 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2023 20:11 Magic Powers wrote:On January 17 2023 17:09 zeo wrote:On January 17 2023 05:02 Erasme wrote:On January 17 2023 02:35 plasmidghost wrote:Am I right in being concerned about the advances Russia keeps making? It keeps looking like despite immense losses, it's not stopping them from advancing and I don't know when or if it'll stop at this rate https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1615037710573371418 They went from "Taking Kiev will be a glorious victory" to "Taking some village with 10k inhabitants is a glorious victory"... What was the population of Verdun in 1914? Months of reports comming out of the Bahmut/Soledar from pro-Kiev sources of up to 400 casualties a day obviously had merit in showing the true state at the front line. Months of being at a 7 to 1 disadvantage in heavy artillery is the reason why Soledar fell and Bahmut is on the brink of encirclement even though Kiev controlled forces had a 3 to 2 advantage in commited manpower to the area. What was the point of throwing away so many men holding onto cities of so-so strategic value? If we know only 3% of casualties in the conflict are from small arms close combat with the vast majority being from artillery was it really worth it to commit so many men to the defence at such a disatvantage? 20-25k casualties just in Soledar, which comes to around 6k dead (over the many months its been contested). Bahmut is stages worse and not yet over. It was never about taking a 10k town or even a square meter of land. It was about destroying as much of the Ukranian military as possible before the next offensive. How much the Kiev government can replase these losses with the 8th wave of mobilisation going on remains to be seen. Though that will be easier to replace than armor. You can't half-way a defense against such fierce attacks by a formidable enemy, either commit to it or you don't. Bakhmut is a very important region, although not the most important in Ukraine, still important enough to require a strong defense. Not committing more troops to it would've meant surrendering it. Yes, Bahmut was important as a second line of defence. But when they lost defensive positions on their flanks and were forced into a funnel like sitting ducks it should have been time to fall back to favorable positions. If their general staff knew it would be impossible to retake those key heights around the city because they were out heavy-gunned 7:1 then it borders on criminal to push even more troops to die in a lost city. Over 500 left to die inside Soledar, every day Wagner posts new piles of dead bodies from inside the town. Having 1k casualties and pulling out to better defencive positions with heavy weapons intact is better than having 25k casualties and pulling a broken army to better defencive positions when you are totally outgunned. And Bahmut has many more troops than Soledar ever did. Seversk is now in a very bad position without Soledar, its irrational to throw more troops in to defend those flanks and risk all those soldiers being encircled. Conscripts are not disposable, they have families and loved ones that will ask questions about why their husband/brother/father was sacrificed for a lost position so a politician could boast about 'not one step back' You keep throwing out Ukrainian casualty numbers who's only source as far as I can tell is Wagner itself.
We have absolutely no reason to assume they are even remotely accurate and are in fact much much much more likely to be completely and utterly fake then even remotely in the correct ballpark.
Your whole argument about Ukraine wasting lives seems to be based on a lie to begin with
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I'm guessing this is related to the new German defense minister maybe?
Makes me wonder how many Serbs have died in Ukraine, especially if Serbia has to say this publicly. Remember Serbia is busy trying to provoke NATO/Kosovo at the same time....
Russia should halt its efforts to recruit Serbs to fight alongside its Wagner paramilitary group in Ukraine, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said.
Vucic criticized Russia's websites and social media groups for publishing advertisements in the Serbian language in which the Wagner group calls volunteers to join its ranks.
“Why do you, from Wagner, call anyone from Serbia when you know that it is against our regulations?” Vucic said late on Monday in a broadcast by the Belgrade-based Happy TV.
Serb volunteers took part in the fighting alongside pro-Russian forces in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015. No one has a clear idea of exact numbers at any one time but dozens of Serbs have signed up to fight in Ukraine since 2014, observers say.
The Serbian legislature bans the participation of its citizens in conflicts abroad and several people have been sentenced for doing so.
Vucic denied allegations that the Wagner group, led by Evgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has a presence in Serbia where pro-Kremlin and ultranationalist organizations have supported the invasion of Ukraine.
On Tuesday, Russia's RIA news agency aired TV footage of two masked men identifying them as Serb volunteers at a weapons training course in Russian-controlled parts of the Zaporizhzhia region in Ukraine.
Serbia is a candidate to join the European Union, its main trade partner and investor, but it also maintains trade and military cooperation with Russia, a traditional Slavic and Orthodox Christian ally.
Source
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On January 17 2023 22:00 zeo wrote:
Seversk is now in a very bad position without Soledar, its irrational to throw more troops in to defend those flanks and risk all those soldiers being encircled. Conscripts are not disposable, they have families and loved ones that will ask questions about why their husband/brother/father was sacrificed for a lost position so a politician could boast about 'not one step back'
As ruthless as it is, Ukraine has more conscripts to take their place.
What it doesn't have are tanks.
If they are to have any hope in this war, they can't give up ground while a major NATO conference on aiding them is just about to take place.
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Looking at the long term, cash from oil and gas contributed 45% of the Russian government budget in 2021.
In Jan 2022 they sold at a price of 86 USD/bbl. Today they are selling at $52 USD/bbl. Breakeven price is between 30-40 USD/bbl, so their margins on oil have decreased nearly 70%. Revenue fall from approx. 4.5B to 1.5B USD per month. Meanwhile, natural gas exports have fallen off a cliff.
I don't see how they plan to sustain this for very long.
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United States42771 Posts
On January 18 2023 00:29 warding wrote:
Looking at the long term, cash from oil and gas contributed 45% of the Russian government budget in 2021.
In Jan 2022 they sold at a price of 86 USD/bbl. Today they are selling at $52 USD/bbl. Breakeven price is between 30-40 USD/bbl, so their margins on oil have decreased nearly 70%. Revenue fall from approx. 4.5B to 1.5B USD per month. Meanwhile, natural gas exports have fallen off a cliff.
I don't see how they plan to sustain this for very long.
The state is borrowing from the people with debt issuances bought by the Russian public. You can get by like that for a while.
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Do not underestimate how long a country will willingly run itself into the ground fighting a losing war before it capitulates.
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There are some news that Russia will have about $45B deficit this year. Need some concrete information on that.
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On January 17 2023 17:51 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2023 17:22 r00ty wrote:On January 17 2023 16:48 pmp10 wrote:On January 17 2023 15:53 Lmui wrote:
Thinking about it, what's the next "escalation" angle from the west once Ukraine gets some mixture of armor.
Is it ATACMS?
Ukraine is taking quite a bit of damage from missile attacks that they can't retaliate against, does it make sense to give them a means to counter at least the shorter ground based systems? Most likely aircraft, if west ever dares going that far. For political reason these can be sold as 'defensive' as opposed to long range missiles. That could make the biggest difference in western arsenal as Ukrainian airforce has been badly attrited away by the fighting. You can find the explanation why the west sending jets is nonsense every couple pages in this thread. A US supercarrier needs 2500 people just to maintain its 80-90 airplanes and helicopters. Every hour of flight requires 15-20 hours of maintenance on average by highly qualified people. The plane is not taken apart after every mission, but unless you want a mission risking flying paperweight, you gotta get the logistics together. And think about the logistical effort for an ICBM or a nuclear submarine. Not that it matters to the situation at hand. Any logistical chains can be build given time IF the will is there. If Ukraine can receive Sea Kings and somehow maintain them they could as well receive Gripens. The question is more along the lines of does the west want to make a difference.
Most of the reason why I started with ATACMS is that Ukraine is already operating HIMARS+GMLRS with good effect. I assume training's already been done, or if not, would be a very short training program. It fits into the same logistics train as GMLRS, with the only downside being that ATACMS is not in active production, so anything given to Ukraine isn't replaceable.
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On January 17 2023 23:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:I'm guessing this is related to the new German defense minister maybe? https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1615319014330494978https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1615316892629241858Makes me wonder how many Serbs have died in Ukraine, especially if Serbia has to say this publicly. Remember Serbia is busy trying to provoke NATO/Kosovo at the same time.... Show nested quote +Russia should halt its efforts to recruit Serbs to fight alongside its Wagner paramilitary group in Ukraine, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said.
Vucic criticized Russia's websites and social media groups for publishing advertisements in the Serbian language in which the Wagner group calls volunteers to join its ranks.
“Why do you, from Wagner, call anyone from Serbia when you know that it is against our regulations?” Vucic said late on Monday in a broadcast by the Belgrade-based Happy TV.
Serb volunteers took part in the fighting alongside pro-Russian forces in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015. No one has a clear idea of exact numbers at any one time but dozens of Serbs have signed up to fight in Ukraine since 2014, observers say.
The Serbian legislature bans the participation of its citizens in conflicts abroad and several people have been sentenced for doing so.
Vucic denied allegations that the Wagner group, led by Evgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has a presence in Serbia where pro-Kremlin and ultranationalist organizations have supported the invasion of Ukraine.
On Tuesday, Russia's RIA news agency aired TV footage of two masked men identifying them as Serb volunteers at a weapons training course in Russian-controlled parts of the Zaporizhzhia region in Ukraine.
Serbia is a candidate to join the European Union, its main trade partner and investor, but it also maintains trade and military cooperation with Russia, a traditional Slavic and Orthodox Christian ally. Source
Yeah, but if it is "dozens" of serbs, it is probably not the biggest thing.
On January 18 2023 01:04 gobbledydook wrote:
Do not underestimate how long a country will willingly run itself into the ground fighting a losing war before it capitulates.
It is important to differentiate between a normal civilian economy and a war economy. A war economy, with the core goal of keeping the military going, can keep going for a long period of time. There are lots of tricks to keep the arms production rolling and increasing in what would be a major economical crisis in peacetime. They all involve borrowing from the future in some way, or cutting "luxury" products for the population.
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On January 18 2023 01:55 Manit0u wrote:
There are some news that Russia will have about $45B deficit this year. Need some concrete information on that.
There is no chance of getting real information on the internal financial health of Russia. No country would willingly hand over something like that in the middle of a war. A lot of weird stuff happens when you lose the ability to export and import. having a "deficit of $45B" can mean a lot of things when your currency doesn't have a credible method of exchange with the dollar for example.
Russia has the ability to feed itself and has the ability to produce fuel internally. You can keep a nation stable with that for a long long time when the price of both drops like a rock due to a vastly lowered demand for those resources. Paying to keep people in warm homes and fed goes a long way to avoid civil unrest.
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On January 18 2023 00:46 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2023 00:29 warding wrote:
Looking at the long term, cash from oil and gas contributed 45% of the Russian government budget in 2021.
In Jan 2022 they sold at a price of 86 USD/bbl. Today they are selling at $52 USD/bbl. Breakeven price is between 30-40 USD/bbl, so their margins on oil have decreased nearly 70%. Revenue fall from approx. 4.5B to 1.5B USD per month. Meanwhile, natural gas exports have fallen off a cliff.
I don't see how they plan to sustain this for very long. The state is borrowing from the people with debt issuances bought by the Russian public. You can get by like that for a while.
One of Perun's most recent videos is about how durable war economies are.
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Ukrainians being trained in the US on Patriot systems.
Dutch PM has announced they will also be delivering Patriots to Ukraine as well.
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On January 17 2023 22:08 Magic Powers wrote:
You can't just "fall back". If you do that, you get hunted down and that means surrendering even more territory. How far back can you retreat until you run out of space - or worse, invite further offensives? Why retreat at all then? It must be more advantageous to you to surrender territory than it is for the enemy to claim it, otherwise you're just surrendering it for an insufficient reason.
Bakhmut is clearly one of the best positions to hold, as can be proven by the miniscule advances Russia has made in that region and the relative value of the region. It's a very important region to hold. Ukraine was forced to retreat from other positions in far worse scenarios.
Basically what you're saying is effectively the same as advising Ukraine to surrender and lay down their arms entirely. It makes no sense.
But you can just fall back. The Russians pulled 20k troops and the vast majority of their combat equipment across the Dnieper after Kiev forces had destroyed key bridges and supply routes to Herson. The whole time they were under intense intelligence surveillance by NATO and Ukraine. Yet the Russians managed to repair damaged bridges while under fire, throw up pontoon bridges, and employ ferries to get their people and equipment out. Much harder to do than what I proposed above.
Yes, they could have held onto Herson ad-infinitum but at what cost? With the manpower deficits at the other fronts it was never going to be worth it so they took the propaganda L and are now in a much better position and a lot of lives were saved in the long run. Being sensible and looking after your own people is paramount. I'm sure there is a Sun Tsu quote somewhere about losing a battle to win a war.
On January 17 2023 23:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Makes me wonder how many Serbs have died in Ukraine, especially if Serbia has to say this publicly. Remember Serbia is busy trying to provoke NATO/Kosovo at the same time....
Not that many died to be honest. I follow our military news Telegram channels and they usually have a write up when one of our citizens is killed. There were many many more Serbs fighting in 2014 during the start of the civil war than were there on Feb. 14th. A lot of reasons for that but the Russian army proper only recently let foreign volunteers in, and I think they are there more for propaganda and moral boosting purposes. At least from what I've seen/read most of the Serbs there are not on the front line. We had two or three of our skinhead neo-nazis die fighting for pro-Ukranian groups in the past few months and these ones are much more publicized though there are obviously much less of them.
Wagner is a much different story, there have been Serbs in Wagner since it was founded. The 3000 - 15000USD paycheck is very, very tempting. The ideologs don't go to Wagner where you fight in anonymity. Apparently some US officials started being 'worried' about Wagner supposedly being invited to Serbia to open bases or something, which is pants-on-head stupid to even say out load. So our president feels the need to push out a statement like this to bring balance to the force and pray the Eye of Sauron doesn't turn towards us.
I am the last person that will defend Vucic, the guy is a 'democratic' dictator and his entire party are a cult and stole the last few elections. We have absolutely nothing to gain from provoking anyone with the situation we are in and our foreign diplomacy in the last year has basically been trying (and failing) to stay out of the view of the people you don't want to be in the view of... and apparently we are more neutral than Switzerland now.
On January 17 2023 22:10 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2023 22:00 zeo wrote:On January 17 2023 20:11 Magic Powers wrote:On January 17 2023 17:09 zeo wrote:On January 17 2023 05:02 Erasme wrote:On January 17 2023 02:35 plasmidghost wrote:Am I right in being concerned about the advances Russia keeps making? It keeps looking like despite immense losses, it's not stopping them from advancing and I don't know when or if it'll stop at this rate https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1615037710573371418 They went from "Taking Kiev will be a glorious victory" to "Taking some village with 10k inhabitants is a glorious victory"... What was the population of Verdun in 1914? Months of reports comming out of the Bahmut/Soledar from pro-Kiev sources of up to 400 casualties a day obviously had merit in showing the true state at the front line. Months of being at a 7 to 1 disadvantage in heavy artillery is the reason why Soledar fell and Bahmut is on the brink of encirclement even though Kiev controlled forces had a 3 to 2 advantage in commited manpower to the area. What was the point of throwing away so many men holding onto cities of so-so strategic value? If we know only 3% of casualties in the conflict are from small arms close combat with the vast majority being from artillery was it really worth it to commit so many men to the defence at such a disatvantage? 20-25k casualties just in Soledar, which comes to around 6k dead (over the many months its been contested). Bahmut is stages worse and not yet over. It was never about taking a 10k town or even a square meter of land. It was about destroying as much of the Ukranian military as possible before the next offensive. How much the Kiev government can replase these losses with the 8th wave of mobilisation going on remains to be seen. Though that will be easier to replace than armor. You can't half-way a defense against such fierce attacks by a formidable enemy, either commit to it or you don't. Bakhmut is a very important region, although not the most important in Ukraine, still important enough to require a strong defense. Not committing more troops to it would've meant surrendering it. Yes, Bahmut was important as a second line of defence. But when they lost defensive positions on their flanks and were forced into a funnel like sitting ducks it should have been time to fall back to favorable positions. If their general staff knew it would be impossible to retake those key heights around the city because they were out heavy-gunned 7:1 then it borders on criminal to push even more troops to die in a lost city. Over 500 left to die inside Soledar, every day Wagner posts new piles of dead bodies from inside the town. Having 1k casualties and pulling out to better defencive positions with heavy weapons intact is better than having 25k casualties and pulling a broken army to better defencive positions when you are totally outgunned. And Bahmut has many more troops than Soledar ever did. Seversk is now in a very bad position without Soledar, its irrational to throw more troops in to defend those flanks and risk all those soldiers being encircled. Conscripts are not disposable, they have families and loved ones that will ask questions about why their husband/brother/father was sacrificed for a lost position so a politician could boast about 'not one step back' You keep throwing out Ukrainian casualty numbers who's only source as far as I can tell is Wagner itself. We have absolutely no reason to assume they are even remotely accurate and are in fact much much much more likely to be completely and utterly fake then even remotely in the correct ballpark. Your whole argument about Ukraine wasting lives seems to be based on a lie to begin with
If you think anyone in Ukraine is going to risk going to jail by actually doing reporting... eh. Look what happened to Arestovich, and he was in the inner circle. Video evidence is all over Telegram and I'm not going to post piles of dead bodies here, a small scroll and you will find all of it. Again, the numbers coming out of Soledar are certainly not going to be confirmed by Kiev until after all of this is over... but whats interesting is that in this case Wagner seems to have just given one chance to the surrounded troops to surrender and then killed everyone that didn't give up immediately, no long drawn out negotiations like Mariupol. Also, no foreigner prisoners shown even though there were confirmed to be in Soledar before it was closed, because its been shown to be more humiliating to hand them back than keep them as evidence that foreigners are fighting for the Kiev government.
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EPT
