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On April 28 2017 02:23 lastpuritan wrote:
And yes, you're not alone with your opinion, Turks in Germany are subhumans that have no clue about western values, primitives! Happy now?
Happy? Hell no. First of all I don´t consider them "subhumans". Nice try, I´m not the nazi/xenophobe/racist you blame me to be.
However, no clue about western values is partly right. At least for those 400.000+ voters, who indeed said yes. On the other hand, there have been "No"-Voters. They seem to have a clue about western values (my assumption only, surely there are also different reasons). And finally, there have been a lot of potential voters, that chose not to vote. These are ~50%. Not to vote, if it actually doesn´t affect oneself, is fine with me.
Still 400.000+ that chose a totalitarian system over a democratic. I would "exchange" them any day for those judges, police officers, teachers and whatnot that get bullied, jailed etc. etc. in Turkey for just having a different oppinion than the glorious sultan himself.
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Are you aware of the fact that those police/judges/teachers are somehow waaaaaay more religious than the current laborer turks in Germany? I mean, even if we say vast majority of them jailed unjustly that doesn't change the fact they're Cemaatçi. (aka Gulenist nowadays)
Would you prefer a teacher who sends 10% of his salary (if married) or 20% of his salary (if single) to a religious self-claimed demigod cleric who occasionally tries overthrow governments and build parallel states?  Oh please, take them.
Nevermind me, you're actually doing it anyways. http://www.businessinsider.com/40-turkish-nato-soldiers-have-requested-asylum-in-germany-2017-1
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Mass incarceration is not the proper way to deal with suspected insurgents (insert correct term).
It's clear you have a problem with the Gulen organisation and without a doubt they are not as clean as they suggest they are.
But may you remind yourself that Erdogan and Gulen were REALLY CLOSE not so long ago. It's a supposed monster he helped create and now that it turned against him wants destroyed. Sounds familiar to me.
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On April 28 2017 03:12 Artisreal wrote:
Mass incarceration is not the proper way to deal with suspected insurgents (insert correct term).
It's clear you have a problem with the Gulen organisation and without a doubt they are not as clean as they suggest they are.
But may you remind yourself that Erdogan and Gulen were REALLY CLOSE not so long ago. It's a supposed monster he helped create and now that it turned against him wants destroyed. Sounds familiar to me.
Furthermore the whole situation in turkey reminds me of a famous citation of Martin Niemöller:
(roughly translated by myself, original is in german)
"When the nazis took the communists, I kept silent, since I was no communist.
When they jailed the social democrats, I kept silent, since I was no social democrat.
When they took the unionists, I kept silent, since I was no unionist.
When they came for me, there was noone left to protest."
Just saying, last puritan. I hope it doesn´t come to this. But the number of people getting jailed is rising.
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I´m not really interested in conspiracy theories. Nobody claims Gulen to be a innocent sheep.
But the actions of Erdogan worry me.
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Conspiracy theories?
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Erdogan's time is limited, he can't be elected more than 2 times in his new system, and he's getting old. The hope for Turkey, Nazis would still be nazis without Hitler, but without Erdogan AKP can't survive 2 elections.
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On April 28 2017 03:49 lastpuritan wrote:
Conspiracy theories?
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Erdogan's time is limited, he can't be elected more than 2 times in his new system, and he's getting old. The hope for Turkey, Nazis would still be nazis without Hitler, but without Erdogan AKP can't survive 2 elections.
You really believe that?
Theoretically Erdogan could be president until 2034, if he uses the legal loopholes.
Secondly, since when does Erdogan abide the law?
1. The president has to be neutral and shall not participate in campaigns. Yeah right ...
2. His palace of 1000 rooms was built in a protected landscape. He ignored that, even mocked the judge who came to the conclusion that this thing was illegally built.
3. Campaigning in foreign countries is illegal, an law made by the AKP by the way.
There are just examples I came up in seconds. There are a lot more, I´m sure of it.
But hey, if you wanna believe that he abides the law this time, sure ....
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Erdogan actually went to prison for his absurdly militaristic statements and was technically barred from holding a political office again, so I wouldn't exactly bet on the institutional checks given where we are now
From 1999
+ Show Spoiler +The public prosecutor charged Erdogan with "inciting hatred based on religious differences" at a political rally in Siirt. During his speech, Erdogan read a poem by nationalist ideologist Ziya Gokalp, in which he said:
"Our minarets are our bayonets, Our domes are our helmets, Our mosques are our barracks. We will put a final end to ethnic segregation. No one can ever intimidate us.
"If the skies and the ground were to open against us. If floods and volcanoes were to burst, We will not turn from our mission. My reference is Islam. If I am not able to speak of this, What is the use of living?"
Banned for life
Under the court ruling, Erdogan will be banned from public life forever and will not be able to take part in politics. Friends of Erdogan, who is interested in poetry, say he will write a book of poems while in prison.
Erdogan, a former athlete and soccer star, was elected mayor in March 1994 on the Islamist Welfare Party (RP) ticket. When the RP was shut down in January 1998, he joined the Islamist Virtue Party (FP). He was removed from office last year.
In his four years as mayor, he speeded up construction of a new subway system, found new water resources for the city, built new roads and highways and modernized the fire department.
Until his conviction, he was widely viewed as the man who would eventually lead the Virtue Party.
Interesting piece of history
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538 had a nice article on the French election chances.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/le-pen-is-in-a-much-deeper-hole-than-trump-ever-was/
Short version is that unlike the previous times this win would be close to unprecedented. The "betting odds" 1 in 7 is far from where the polls say things are, though polls may not incorporate all factors. It's hard to say if people will jump off the Le Pen train near the end or jump on but in either case it doesn't look like the numbers are there barring a historic upset.
France in all likelihood has just voted for five more years of the status quo.
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Speaking about the data labelled as "European right-wing parties don’t really outperform their polls": I would not read too much into it.
In every country and election there is a different situation that may or may not make it hard to poll right-wing populists (and other candidates) and each of these countries has a different level of experience with them. I believe polling in the countries with a lot of experience like France or the Netherlands to be much more accurate, than those who haven't had that problem previously like Germany. It also depends a lot on the type of election in my opinion. Polling for major elections with a lot of participation and public interest is probably going to be better modelled, if a lot depends on who you get to cast their vote it becomes much more volatile.
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regional polls / state polls seem to be problematic but national aggregates still I think are fairly accurate, that said I wouldn't be so sure about the actual swing of public opinion until the election. While the polls might be accurate at any given time the voters themselves seem to be very volatile in France.
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Populists versus polls are pretty volatile in general. Sometimes they win bigly, sometimes they lose bigly. Right now seems to be a lower level of success for them, not because the circumstances surrounding the sentiments have changed but because this wasn't really the context in which they were likely to win in. It will flare up more violently in the future; there is no reason to think that the populist sentiments are vanishing any time soon.
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On April 28 2017 05:59 Nyxisto wrote:
regional polls / state polls seem to be problematic but national aggregates still I think are fairly accurate, that said I wouldn't be so sure about the actual swing of public opinion until the election. While the polls might be accurate at any given time the voters themselves seem to be very volatile in France.
Not for the second round, 85-90% of people are sure of their choice.
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On April 28 2017 06:07 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2017 05:59 Nyxisto wrote:
regional polls / state polls seem to be problematic but national aggregates still I think are fairly accurate, that said I wouldn't be so sure about the actual swing of public opinion until the election. While the polls might be accurate at any given time the voters themselves seem to be very volatile in France. Not for the second round, 85-90% of people are sure of their choice.
Shouldn't be a surprise. Either you can bring yourself to vote for Le Pen/Macron or you can't. There's not 5-6 choices to pick from.
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Well I hope so
Also apparently the Communist party who was one of the backers of Mélenchon calls for support of Macron to beat Le Pen and put up resistance afterwards.
I think that's somewhat interesting given that Mélenchon himself has been silent. Leader of the party calls the left not to abstain
+ Show Spoiler +https://twitter.com/plaurent_pcf/status/856830229750448130
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On April 28 2017 07:12 Nyxisto wrote:Well I hope so Also apparently the Communist party who was one of the backers of Mélenchon calls for support of Macron to beat Le Pen and put up resistance afterwards. I think that's somewhat interesting given that Mélenchon himself has been silent. Leader of the party calls the left not to abstain + Show Spoiler +https://twitter.com/plaurent_pcf/status/856830229750448130
They never learn
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Populists should have a hard time in Europe, especially somewhere like France, because they are a threat to the entire continent and nobody knows what comes next.
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On April 28 2017 04:19 Elizar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2017 03:49 lastpuritan wrote:
Conspiracy theories?
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Erdogan's time is limited, he can't be elected more than 2 times in his new system, and he's getting old. The hope for Turkey, Nazis would still be nazis without Hitler, but without Erdogan AKP can't survive 2 elections. You really believe that? Theoretically Erdogan could be president until 2034, if he uses the legal loopholes. Secondly, since when does Erdogan abide the law? 1. The president has to be neutral and shall not participate in campaigns. Yeah right ... 2. His palace of 1000 rooms was built in a protected landscape. He ignored that, even mocked the judge who came to the conclusion that this thing was illegally built. 3. Campaigning in foreign countries is illegal, an law made by the AKP by the way. There are just examples I came up in seconds. There are a lot more, I´m sure of it. But hey, if you wanna believe that he abides the law this time, sure ....
I believe every human being is mortal.
1- The president should be neutral thing was arrant bullshit. A person spends his entire life for his cause, becomes a party member, gets elected as the leader of his party, his party or the public vote for him and his ideals he campaigned for years, he's elected as president, and then somehow is expected to abandon all his former life and become an alien reptilian with no ideology, or hide his ideology and roleplay as if he gives shit about the rival ideology. People don't pay taxes for a president to drink tea all day, or join foundation openings, smile big and sign whatever comes in front of him. I don't remember a neutral Turkish president, do you? They all faked it until a point where they were tested with their neutrality, when tested, they all protected their parties our their ideologies.
2- I'm not a green peace activist, I don't give a damn about trees that can grow in 5-10 years as fakegreenlovers in Turkey, I don't remember any of my activists friends planting a tree but when a government cuts one down, they're in the streets. A state can change her zoning regulations and decide on building a huge palace in the midst of her land. You can protest it, but you should remember it's not your land. Erdogan is mortal, that palace will live thousands years and serve the turkish presidents. Go out and plant some trees around it, no one is holding you back. I got a personal record of 200, I wish I could plant more. It's like 5 bucks or 10.
3- AKP made that law in 2008 to please Germany, in that particular year German officials were discontent with the heavy campaigning rates and propaganda in their country, so AK P made it illegal, but you could still campaign under the foreign ministry's approval. So that's why it wasn't the Turkish PM, but the foreign minister was campaigning all the time. BTW that law is incomplete, there're no punishment for campaigning in other countries, it was just a attempt to end heavy TR-GER dispute.
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On April 28 2017 10:32 lastpuritan wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2017 04:19 Elizar wrote:On April 28 2017 03:49 lastpuritan wrote:
Conspiracy theories?
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Erdogan's time is limited, he can't be elected more than 2 times in his new system, and he's getting old. The hope for Turkey, Nazis would still be nazis without Hitler, but without Erdogan AKP can't survive 2 elections. You really believe that? Theoretically Erdogan could be president until 2034, if he uses the legal loopholes. Secondly, since when does Erdogan abide the law? 1. The president has to be neutral and shall not participate in campaigns. Yeah right ... 2. His palace of 1000 rooms was built in a protected landscape. He ignored that, even mocked the judge who came to the conclusion that this thing was illegally built. 3. Campaigning in foreign countries is illegal, an law made by the AKP by the way. There are just examples I came up in seconds. There are a lot more, I´m sure of it. But hey, if you wanna believe that he abides the law this time, sure .... I believe every human being is mortal. 1- The president should be neutral thing was arrant bullshit. A person spends his entire life for his cause, becomes a party member, gets elected as the leader of his party, his party or the public vote for him and his ideals he campaigned for years, he's elected as president, and then somehow is expected to abandon all his former life and become an alien reptilian with no ideology, or hide his ideology and roleplay as if he gives shit about the rival ideology. People don't pay taxes for a president to drink tea all day, or join foundation openings, smile big and sign whatever comes in front of him. I don't remember a neutral Turkish president, do you? They all faked it until a point where they were tested with their neutrality, when tested, they all protected their parties our their ideologies.
I don´t care what you think. A law is a law. If you think it is your right to choose whether to abide it or not you´re wrong. Change the law first, then act differently. That´s how it is done. Act differently first you break the law, get punished. Thats what it is, if you claim to have a state of law. Cherry picking here makes oneself a hippocrite.
On April 28 2017 10:32 lastpuritan wrote:
2- I'm not a green peace activist, I don't give a damn about trees that can grow in 5-10 years as fakegreenlovers in Turkey, I don't remember any of my activists friends planting a tree but when a government cuts one down, they're in the streets. A state can change her zoning regulations and decide on building a huge palace in the midst of her land. You can protest it, but you should remember it's not your land. Erdogan is mortal, that palace will live thousands years and serve the turkish presidents. Go out and plant some trees around it, no one is holding you back. I got a personal record of 200, I wish I could plant more. It's like 5 bucks or 10.
Again, law is law. Doesn´t matter if you are a green peace activist or not.
And that "1000 years" sounds familiar. I wonder from which book you and Erdogan get your vocabulary. Actually I think I have a good idea.
On April 28 2017 10:32 lastpuritan wrote:
3- AKP made that law in 2008 to please Germany, in that particular year German officials were discontent with the heavy campaigning rates and propaganda in their country, so AK P made it illegal, but you could still campaign under the foreign ministry's approval. So that's why it wasn't the Turkish PM, but the foreign minister was campaigning all the time. BTW that law is incomplete, there're no punishment for campaigning in other countries, it was just a attempt to end heavy TR-GER dispute.
So you made a law without any punishment for breaking it. Good job. Sounds pretty worthless to me.
And you claim it was only the foreign minister? Really?
Akif Cagatay 31. July 2016 (Ministry of Sports)
Binali Yildirim 18. February 2017 (PRIME MINISTER)
Bekir Bozdag 02. March 2017 (Ministry of Justice) (technically it was not in Germany, but in the turkish ambessy in Germany)
Even Nihat Zeybecki (Ministry of economics) wanted to campaign.
30 more were planned.
Before 31. July there have been 6 more speeches in Germany by turkish politicians, starting 2008 with Erdogan himself 10. February.
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EPT
