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Ukraine Crisis - Page 510

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There is a new policy in effect in this thread. Anyone not complying will be moderated.

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Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
May 07 2014 18:46 GMT
#10181
With the update on no troop movement, the pessimistic story says that Putin hasn't reconsidered, he just can't run a referendum on the 11th if his separatists don't control the territory of the referendum.

The recognition of the may 25th elections would then merely be a red herring as it doesn't matter what he says about the elections now, he can always claim an excuse later why he can't accept the result.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Derez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Netherlands6068 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 19:11:18
May 07 2014 18:54 GMT
#10182
On May 08 2014 03:30 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 03:23 Derez wrote:
On May 08 2014 03:12 DeepElemBlues wrote:b

arkashov being barely known to most modern russians = completely irrelevant to whether he could be used by the kremlin as a coordinator for separatists.


ultranationalists having links with other ultranationalists. who would have thought. By your logic any russian is a 'potential coordinator'. These phonecalls shouldn't even be part of the discussion at all. They can't be verified in the first place.


no that isn't my logic and i wonder how you could have arrived at that conclusion. it would require placing a step in my reasoning that doesn't exist. there are plenty of apparatchiks who most russians have never heard of who are intimately involved in the ukraine crisis, does saying that mean that by its logic any russian is a potential coordinator? come on now.

ultranationalists having links with other ultranationalists would tend to support the idea that barkashov could be helping coordinate between moscow and donetsk. ultranationalist rank-and-filers probably don't have direct connections to and communications with ultranationalists in other countries, but an ultranationalist politician - no matter how allegedly old and outdated - probably does.


Calling barkashov an 'apparatchik' is a stretch already. He's never been part of Putin's circles, and he's much more right than Putin has ever been. While the conversation can't actually be verified, let's look at whats actually said:

One guy that wants the good old soviet times back calls some russian politician in the same movement in Moscow. The russian politician admits himself to be out of the decision making process, and while he advises the guy (who doesn't seem too bright), there's no evidence at all he's in any way connected to the Russian state. The content of the conversation seems exactly how you'd expect it to be, I'm willing to believe such a call could easily happen without the interference of the Russian security apparatus. Why exactly is it damning?

I have no issues believing that Moscow has had a hand in some of this, but I think that blaming Moscow for all of this is missing the point. There is a significant minority in East Ukraine that's willing to fight for 'independence', otherwise none of this would have never happened. Some genuinely long for the soviet times, when they were just as well-off but at least had the pride of being a world power. Pensions are better too.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11928 Posts
May 07 2014 18:57 GMT
#10183
On May 08 2014 03:46 Ghanburighan wrote:
With the update on no troop movement, the pessimistic story says that Putin hasn't reconsidered, he just can't run a referendum on the 11th if his separatists don't control the territory of the referendum.

The recognition of the may 25th elections would then merely be a red herring as it doesn't matter what he says about the elections now, he can always claim an excuse later why he can't accept the result.


Also, at this point it appears that when putin says things, it doesn't actually mean anything. Wait for stuff to happen before believing it. It seems that Russias word doesn't actually hold any weight whatsoever.

OR they really meant that there are now no longer troops on Ukrainian territory (which probably doesn't mean Crimea either), but that sounds rather silly.
Mc
Profile Joined March 2010
332 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 19:26:38
May 07 2014 18:58 GMT
#10184
@DeepElemBlues
Darn dude, you destroyed that comment haha. A bit harsh, but I have to admit that I mostly agree with you.

Anyways, this could all be a ploy for Putin to buy time- by seemingly capitulating right now, he might try to bring the separatists and Ukraine to the talking table. If nothing comes of it, Ukraine is delayed a week (or more.. or less) and has to restart the offensive all over again. This would probably post-pone the May 25th elections.

What should Ukraine do in this situation? Talks can easily be drawn out to delay the elections. Talks can also result in nothing, and then Ukraine would have to restart the offensive. If Ukraine continues the offensive without talks, Ukraine looks like it's being an ass. Kinda a catch-22.
5hh.gg
kukarachaa
Profile Joined February 2011
United States284 Posts
May 07 2014 20:59 GMT
#10185
So much for good news.

http://mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/comments/1251-zajava-mzs-ukrajini-z-privodu-vislovlenih-prezidentami-rosijsykoji-federaciji-i-shvejcariji-golovujuchoji-v-obse-namiriv-dejeskalaciji-situaciji-v-ukrajini
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
May 07 2014 21:32 GMT
#10186
There is no doubt that Putin is trying to help the separatists by what he is doing now. Afaik the separatists are not taking a stance officially on the vote untill tomorrow, so let us take it there.

If they are moving the vote less than 2 weeks, nothing has changed. The vote has to be dropped or moved back to after the federalisation talks if they want any recognition or legitimacy outside of Russia (it is kind of important to know your options in a referendum and that is not possible before you know what kind of federalisation is on offer if they stay in Ukraine...).

The problem is that the independence declaration after such a referendum could be used by Russia to send troops, since they would then have their peacekeeping force "invited". Therefore this vote matters, no matter how manipulated it will be. Putin still hasn't moved troops back, suggesting that he is indeed lying and trying to win time and room for the separatists more than anything.
Repeat before me
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6343 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 21:41:09
May 07 2014 21:38 GMT
#10187
On May 08 2014 05:59 kukarachaa wrote:
So much for good news.

http://mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/comments/1251-zajava-mzs-ukrajini-z-privodu-vislovlenih-prezidentami-rosijsykoji-federaciji-i-shvejcariji-golovujuchoji-v-obse-namiriv-dejeskalaciji-situaciji-v-ukrajini

So the 'elected government' telling Putin to fuck off after he calls for peace and at least looks like he is trying to calm down the protesters... Sigh, these people are at least as delusional as Saakashvili.

Russia trying to calm things down is aimed at Germany. The German's offered a sane/reasonable solution to the crisis and the US just fucks everything up because they want Putin on his knees. Germany is very close to becoming a sovereign nation, all Putin has to do is sit back and let the US make themselves look like total assholes more and more every day.

edit: I'm sure everyone here has access to NATO satellites and has seen with their own eyes where Russian forces are.
Pre-emptive retaliatory de-escalation action
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
May 07 2014 21:53 GMT
#10188
Pentagon, Ukrainean military and OTAN all make that observation. None of them can be said to be unbiased, but it seems sufficient to suggest that the situation is largely unchanged.
Repeat before me
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6343 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 22:01:43
May 07 2014 22:00 GMT
#10189
On May 08 2014 06:53 radiatoren wrote:
Pentagon, Ukrainean military and OTAN all make that observation. None of them can be said to be unbiased, but it seems sufficient to suggest that the situation is largely unchanged.

Is OTAN NATO? if so then all three of those sources answer to the pentagon.

edit: do the Ukrainians have satellites?
Pre-emptive retaliatory de-escalation action
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 22:19:55
May 07 2014 22:09 GMT
#10190
On May 08 2014 07:00 zeo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 06:53 radiatoren wrote:
Pentagon, Ukrainean military and OTAN all make that observation. None of them can be said to be unbiased, but it seems sufficient to suggest that the situation is largely unchanged.

Is OTAN NATO? if so then all three of those sources answer to the pentagon.

edit: do the Ukrainians have satellites?

OTAN is NATO and now you are just spreading a conspiracy theory (NATO was declaring it before Pentagon). I don't think Ukraine has satellites, but they do have the possibility of confirming information otg.

Edit: And when it comes to the big "german plan" you said Putin found reasonable, the sources I have indicated it was "quashed" by Russia.
Repeat before me
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 22:19:59
May 07 2014 22:19 GMT
#10191
i don't think russian involvement in separatist is that hard to imagine. just becasue there's a 30-40% pro russian population in a region does not mean it will generate a 'protest' of such scale spontaneously.

if 90% of ukraine who wanted the other guy out is utterly coordinated by the CIA without whom nothing would have happened, then 30% of eastern ukraine surely should require some instigators and organizers to get started. if we are going to be throwing up le outside agents based on vague animus, the russian involvement story is way stronger than the CIA story.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6343 Posts
May 07 2014 22:43 GMT
#10192
On May 08 2014 07:09 radiatoren wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 07:00 zeo wrote:
On May 08 2014 06:53 radiatoren wrote:
Pentagon, Ukrainean military and OTAN all make that observation. None of them can be said to be unbiased, but it seems sufficient to suggest that the situation is largely unchanged.

Is OTAN NATO? if so then all three of those sources answer to the pentagon.

edit: do the Ukrainians have satellites?

OTAN is NATO and now you are just spreading a conspiracy theory (NATO was declaring it before Pentagon). I don't think Ukraine has satellites, but they do have the possibility of confirming information otg.

Edit: And when it comes to the big "german plan" you said Putin found reasonable, the sources I have indicated it was "quashed" by Russia.

Saying that NATO doesn't hop when America says 'hop' is a tad hmmmm. Whatever sources you might have it should be clear that germany is trying the hardest to calm things down and mediate.
Pre-emptive retaliatory de-escalation action
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
May 07 2014 22:44 GMT
#10193
On May 08 2014 07:19 oneofthem wrote:
i don't think russian involvement in separatist is that hard to imagine. just becasue there's a 30-40% pro russian population in a region does not mean it will generate a 'protest' of such scale spontaneously.

The Crimean referendum, fascists grabbing power in Ukraine, and a Russian military presence nearby is a pretty good reason.

The current government of Ukraine is a far better provocateur than Russia could ever be.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
May 07 2014 23:04 GMT
#10194
On May 08 2014 07:43 zeo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 07:09 radiatoren wrote:
On May 08 2014 07:00 zeo wrote:
On May 08 2014 06:53 radiatoren wrote:
Pentagon, Ukrainean military and OTAN all make that observation. None of them can be said to be unbiased, but it seems sufficient to suggest that the situation is largely unchanged.

Is OTAN NATO? if so then all three of those sources answer to the pentagon.

edit: do the Ukrainians have satellites?

OTAN is NATO and now you are just spreading a conspiracy theory (NATO was declaring it before Pentagon). I don't think Ukraine has satellites, but they do have the possibility of confirming information otg.

Edit: And when it comes to the big "german plan" you said Putin found reasonable, the sources I have indicated it was "quashed" by Russia.

Saying that NATO doesn't hop when America says 'hop' is a tad hmmmm. Whatever sources you might have it should be clear that germany is trying the hardest to calm things down and mediate.

Not the same. Moving that target seems unfair.

You claimed that NATO answers to Pentagon, but even that is not the same as being dependent. NATO has a large american influence because of the economic contributions but NATO are as an institution independent from Pentagon and the white house (Even though the last is to the shagrin of Obama). Institutional independency is what matters in terms of military assessments, not political influence, unless it is classified etc.

I agree that Germany is trying to mediate and calm things, but that was not what you said. Besides, if anything, Switzerland would be the torch-carrier in plans since they chair OSCE and have been negotiating with Putin for days.
Repeat before me
Xiphos
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Canada7507 Posts
May 08 2014 00:25 GMT
#10195
On May 07 2014 15:39 Mc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 07 2014 15:15 Xiphos wrote:
Which is the point of video. Now if one can't understand the importance of Ukraine's position for Russia after understanding the fact what Russia have to do in order to protect it's culture, then there is nothing to be said but if you can't do the math on that one, then I can't help ya.


My original point was that the article is wrong. Which I still stand by, and you didn't seem to counter. I never stated that I don't understand Russia's concerns about NATO/Western encirclement or imply they don't exists.

It's funny how you say "... what Russia have to do in order to protect it's *culture*". Culture in theory shouldn't be dependent on politics, but you seem to be saying it is..... And maybe you're right Russian culture is dependent on a feeling of imperial greatness and power. So, Russia is ironically not only defending it's geopolitical/military concerns by actively destabilizing Ukraine, but it's defending it's "culture" as an aggressive anti-Western foreign power.

Everyone (I hope) knows that to some extent this is a struggle between East and West. It's an internal East-West struggle in Ukraine (both in geography and in culture). AND it's a struggle East-West between Russia and EU/USA. However, I disagree how much of the West cares about using Ukraine as a pawn. The US/Europe see Ukraine as a problem child which will just be annoying to deal with if it tries to go West. No real benefit for the West to have Ukraine "join". However, the West is forced to support Ukraine because : part of the country is aspiring to European values of democracy and it'd be hypocritical to deny them this right AND it needs to tell Russia not to interfere with the boundaries of E. Europe. So Europe, is almost unwillingly supporting Ukraine because it's "European" values tell it to do so (and responding to Russian aggression). I guess you could say Russia is also supporting the pro-Russian Ukraine "unwillingly", but it's intentions aren't democracy/freedom and stopping European aggression - it's intentions are as you pointed out (maybe unintentionally), defending "Russian culture" (i.e. imperialism, anti-West, etc.).

edit: I'm skipping over some of the other factors (like EU dependence on Russian gas), and Russian historical ties to Ukraine as part of its' "culture". It's for the sake of having a succinct argument, and I don't want to write an essay but a forum post


It have been well known that Ukraine have a lot of natural resources in the country (ranked 24 in the world). And it is also known that Ukraine halts dealings with EU in favor of Russia because of Russia's superior deal.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/11/27/ukr-n27.html
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20131121/184845623.html

"
President Yanukovych, who was in Austria on a state visit Thursday, said that his country remained open to integration with Europe, hinting that the issue could be revisited at a later stage.

“We have a little way left to the peak. We are not afraid of difficulties, we are certain that we should in future go along the path of European integration,” he said.
"
Russia have outbid EU with the Ukraine. However Yanukovych basically hinted that if a better deal with the EU comes along, then he will proceed with it (not closing any EU doors). Ofc the Euromaidan's nationalist disagree with him and painted him for being a Kremlin puppet. However this could very well be the selfishness of some politicians who aim to take the president (or any more prominent position) position for themselves.

Regarding the culture, its all about sphere of influence. Whoever have a larger influence in the world gets to export their culture to the rest of the world. Its akin to American exporting McDonald's, Nike, and Basketball to the world because of their superior influence.
2014 - ᕙ( •̀ل͜•́) ϡ Raise your bows brood warriors! ᕙ( •̀ل͜•́) ϡ
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
May 08 2014 00:31 GMT
#10196
Just as a sidenote, since it didn't really pop up so far..

The MFA confirmed now that they welcome international observers, allow monitoring of the voting. You know, the dudes who russian seperatists actively tried to scare away even back in crimea, apart from the creme de la creme of international nationalists, actual fascists and ex-communists.

That's something to keep in mind.

On track to MA1950A.
hunts
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2113 Posts
May 08 2014 01:04 GMT
#10197
On May 08 2014 07:44 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 07:19 oneofthem wrote:
i don't think russian involvement in separatist is that hard to imagine. just becasue there's a 30-40% pro russian population in a region does not mean it will generate a 'protest' of such scale spontaneously.

The Crimean referendum, fascists grabbing power in Ukraine, and a Russian military presence nearby is a pretty good reason.

The current government of Ukraine is a far better provocateur than Russia could ever be.


But can you back up those claims? So far the ukranian government has just been getting attacked physically by the pro russian sepratists who still may or may not be actual russian soldiers or led by the kremlin, and they've been implicitly been attacked by russia in the form of russia threatening them with soldiers on their borders (which have not been withdrawn despite russia saying they have been) and russia threatening to invade if they defend themselves against the terrorist seperatists.
twitch.tv/huntstv 7x legend streamer
sgtnoobkilla
Profile Joined July 2012
Australia249 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-08 02:22:59
May 08 2014 02:21 GMT
#10198
Transcript of Putin's latest press release and brief Q&A alongside the Swiss prez:

PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA VLADIMIR PUTIN: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

I want to start by welcoming once more our guest, the President of Switzerland and current head of the OSCE, and I want to thank him for the attention he is giving to settling this acute crisis in Ukraine. None of us are indifferent to what is happening there. The situation has us all very concerned.

Let me repeat once more that in Russia’s view, the blame for the crisis that emerged in Ukraine and is now taking the worst direction in its developments lies with those who organised the coup d’etat in Kiev on February 22-23, and have not yet taken the trouble to disarm right-wing radical and nationalist groups.

But no matter what the case, we must look for ways out of the situation as it is today. We all have an interest in ending this crisis, Ukraine and its people above all. Thus I say that we all want the crisis to end as soon as possible and in such a way that takes into account the interests of all people in Ukraine no matter where they live. The discussion with Mr President showed that our approaches to possible solutions to the crisis have much in common.

Russia urgently appeals to the authorities in Kiev to cease immediately all military and punitive operations in southeast Ukraine. This is not an effective means of resolving internal political conflicts and, on the contrary, will only deepen the divisions.

We welcome the release of Mr [Pavel] Gubarev, but we hope to see all the other political prisoners released too. We think the most important thing now is to launch direct dialogue, genuine, full-fledged dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives of southeast Ukraine. This dialogue could give people from southeast Ukraine the chance to see that their lawful rights in Ukraine really will be guaranteed.

In this context, we appeal too, to representatives of southeast Ukraine and supporters of federalisation to hold off the referendum scheduled for May 11, in order to give this dialogue the conditions it needs to have a chance.

Let me stress that the presidential election the Kiev authorities plan to hold is a step in the right direction, but it will not solve anything unless all of Ukraine’s people first understand how their rights will be guaranteed once the election has taken place.

In this respect, I hold the same position as Mr President, because we both believe that direct dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives of southeast Ukraine is the key to settling this crisis.

But one of the essential conditions for getting dialogue underway is an unconditional end to the use of force, whether with the help of the armed forces, which is completely unacceptable in the modern world, or through the use of illegal armed radical groups. Russia is ready to contribute as it can to resolving the Ukrainian crisis and playing an active and positive part in the Geneva process.

QUESTION: President Putin,

The Ukrainian government has made recent statements to the effect that they are ready to begin broad decentralisation in the country. First of all, does this decentralisation suit you?

Second, we hear that the violence must end and we must settle the conflict. We already heard similar words in Geneva.

My question therefore is what concrete steps can you take, because the experts all say that Moscow holds the key to resolving the conflict. How can you influence people in eastern Ukraine, the so-called separatists? What concrete steps are needed to de-escalate the conflict?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: First, the idea that Russia holds the key to resolving the problem is a trick thought up by our Western partners and does not have any grounds in reality. No sooner do our colleagues in Europe or the US drive the situation into a dead end, they always say that Moscow holds the keys to a solution and put all the responsibility on us.

The responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine now lies with the people who carried out an anti-constitutional seizure of power, a coup d’etat, and with those who supported these actions and gave them financial, political, information and other kinds of support and pushed the situation to the tragic events that took place in Odessa. It’s quite simply blood-chilling to watch the footage of those events.

Russia will take every necessary step of course and do everything within its power to settle the situation. I can understand the people in southeast Ukraine, who say that if others can do what they like in Kiev, carry out a coup d’etat, take up arms and seize government buildings, police stations and military garrisons, then why shouldn’t they be allowed to defend their interests and lawful rights?

As for whether proposed measures suit Russia or not, we are not a party to this conflict; the parties to the conflict are in Ukraine itself. We were told repeatedly that our forces by the Ukrainian border were a source of concern. We have withdrawn our forces and they are now not on the Ukrainian border but are carrying out their regular exercises at the test grounds. This can be easily verified using modern intelligence techniques, including from space, where everything can be seen. We helped to secure the OSCE military observers’ release and I think also made a contribution to defusing the situation.

You asked what we can do now. As I said, what is needed is direct, full-fledged and equal dialogue between the Kiev authorities and the representatives of people in southeast Ukraine.

I spoke recently with German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel, who proposed organising this dialogue in the form of a round table. We support this. I think it is a good idea and we will do everything we can to help make it happen. We must do everything possible to ensure that people in southeast Ukraine understand, feel and believe that after the Ukrainian presidential election on May 24 or 25 their lawful rights will be reliably guaranteed.

This is the real issue, not the presidential election, but ensuring that people in the southeast know that they won’t be abandoned and deceived. This is the crux of the matter, and it is for this that we need the dialogue we have been talking about today.

QUESTION: How realistic is a second round of talks in Geneva, Geneva-2? And how realistic is it to launch internal talks between the different groups in Ukraine in a situation when the parties have diametrically opposed positions to a degree never seen before in Ukraine’s history?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: I don’t know how realistic a Geneva-2 round of talks or even internal political talks in Ukraine itself would be. I simply believe that if we want to find a long-term solution to the crisis in Ukraine, open, honest and equal dialogue is the only possible option.

Thank you.

Source


Interesting points highlighted:

- He denounces Ukraine's use of military force and appeals to Kiev to hold off on conducting more operations to allow for a more stable election period.
- Understands the viewpoint of the uprisings, but he does not advocate them happening quid pro quo just because Maidan happened.
- Elections on the 25th are a "step in the right direction", but needs to be more fair (on account of the CT operations currently happening) to provide for both sides. Also recommends that the separatists stand down from holding their own unofficial referendum on the 11th.
Don't play with your food unless it plays with you first.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-08 02:40:30
May 08 2014 02:39 GMT
#10199
Funny how Putin himself is using the word coup repeatedly, which usually involves one part of the government overthrowing another, often by force. I mean saying it a million times doesn't make it more true. Again, the elected parliament elected the interim government. If that is a putsch then Italy has been ruled by an evil military junta for the better part of the last five years.
kukarachaa
Profile Joined February 2011
United States284 Posts
May 08 2014 03:54 GMT
#10200
On May 08 2014 09:31 m4ini wrote:
Just as a sidenote, since it didn't really pop up so far..

The MFA confirmed now that they welcome international observers, allow monitoring of the voting. You know, the dudes who russian seperatists actively tried to scare away even back in crimea, apart from the creme de la creme of international nationalists, actual fascists and ex-communists.

That's something to keep in mind.



You are confusing military observers and voting observers. Military observers were not allowed in Crimea, voting observers were invited, but didn't come since EU stance was referendum is illegal in a first place.
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