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Ukraine Crisis - Page 509

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There is a new policy in effect in this thread. Anyone not complying will be moderated.

New policy, please read before posting:
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Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
May 07 2014 14:59 GMT
#10161
Deescalation is real, it could be a trick, but no solid analysis can be found at this point from either side.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Mc
Profile Joined March 2010
332 Posts
May 07 2014 15:33 GMT
#10162
An informative poll
http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/24w1pn/crowd_source_important_political_poll_done_in/

disclaimer : supposedly a phone survey. Yes, I know it has a bias as was argued earlier in this thread, and I can't tell if they called only land-lines or cell-phones also. So it could have a significant age bias.
5hh.gg
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
May 07 2014 15:46 GMT
#10163
On May 07 2014 23:59 Ghanburighan wrote:
Deescalation is real, it could be a trick, but no solid analysis can be found at this point from either side.

Putin has held several meetings with the Swiss OSCE chairman and appears to have gotten the assurances he needed about more specific details. Nothing is certain before the steps in the 4-step process has been implemented, but it seems Putin has accepted that he cannot keep the situation going 'till after the election without facing sanctions or intervene without facing worse sanctions. Whether he has other plans later is difficult to say, but for now he is saying exactly what has been asked of him.

Also from the Donetsk Peoples Republic leader: "We have the utmost respect for president Putin. If he considers that necessary, we will of course discuss it." Seems Putins words can affect them...

Even though none of the necessary actions have been reported and confirmed by objective observers or both sides this is the right path to deescalation.
Repeat before me
Serpest
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States603 Posts
May 07 2014 15:47 GMT
#10164
Hooray! Common sense seems to have prevailed. I imagine joint Russian-OSCE observers would help Ukraine have unrigged elections.
A person that attempts to diagnose themselves has a fool for a doctor and a bigger fool for a patient.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
May 07 2014 15:52 GMT
#10165
Putin says a lot of things. Like that the Russian troops that were occupying Crimea are independent civilian self defence forces. At the moment there is no real information on whether the the troops on the Ukrainian border has withdrawn or whether the intention of doing so is to de escalate.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
May 07 2014 15:58 GMT
#10166
I'd also take it with a grain of salt. The alleged pull back of the Russian troops from the border was anounced about a dozen times in the last few weeks, BBC just reported that the NATO can't confirm it.
DeepElemBlues
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States5079 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 16:36:32
May 07 2014 16:36 GMT
#10167
Putin has also said the separatists should delay their referendum. I think he's flailing just a little bit right now, he expected Kiev to crawl into the fetal position when he threatened it repeatedly about sending soldiers against the separatists. Implying that Russia would invade if Kiev didn't submit was the main thrust of Russian policy for a week and a half and it failed. Kiev called his bluff and now he needs to regain his equilibrium because the sense is that events on the ground are in charge at the moment and not Vladimir Putin.
no place i'd rather be than the satellite of love
Feartheguru
Profile Joined August 2011
Canada1334 Posts
May 07 2014 16:50 GMT
#10168
On May 07 2014 20:58 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 07 2014 20:32 zeo wrote:
On May 07 2014 20:21 Cheerio wrote:
On May 07 2014 19:55 zeo wrote:
On May 07 2014 19:42 Cheerio wrote:
On May 07 2014 19:34 zeo wrote:
On May 07 2014 19:26 Cheerio wrote:
On May 07 2014 19:09 zeo wrote:
On May 07 2014 18:55 Cheerio wrote:
On May 07 2014 04:08 Mc wrote:
http://euromaidanpr.com/2014/05/06/sbu-snipers-and-radioactive-material-for-a-dirty-bomb/
https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/anti-terrorist-operation-continues-in-donetsk-oblast-live-updates-346313.html

disclaimer: EuromaidanPR is a quasi-propaganda website (lot's of unverified/exaggerated claims. Not intentional lies, but really poor journalism).

Either way, my question is what are your thoughts on on all these SBU operations? I never was convinced that the "leaked phone calls" of FSB agents were real. Maybe they were, but it's almost impossible to verify.

The material for the "dirty bomb" sounds unreal to me. I doubt the separatists would really be trying to get their hands on it, and that basically leaves Russia as the culprit. But would Russia really want to do that? I'm sure Putin has no qualms about that sort of action, but it just seems like it wouldn't do Putin no good to use such tactics.

Basically, what I'm getting at is that I have a suscpiscion that SBU might be faking it's "achievements" in order to fabricate success and counter Russian's propaganda war.

Any thoughts? Do you we have any definitive evidence that the phone calls were false/true? Any evidence of complete fabrications from the SBU side? Please only intelligent well argued responses (with sources if possible).


Do you remember what effects the use of chemical weapons had in Syria? Basically the idea is that if any kind of NBC weapons is used against the separatists, that would enable Russia to repeat Syrian scenario. Who actually used the bomb would not even matter.

And about SBU. So far I haven't seen anything big they've thrown out to be shown fabricated. They might be wrong when doing estimations, predictions, or on some minor stuff though.

You are seriously that brainwashed that you think Russia would set off a nuclear weapon to justify taking over a territory they just detonated a nuke in? What the hell are they showing you on Ukrainian tv?

Read carefully. I didn't say that would be Russia bombing. Who might be doing the "dirty" work is a very flexible matter. There is a number of interested in Russian intervention sides. Yanukovich for example.

Yanukovych has absolutely nothing to gain, they hate him in eastern Ukraine and see him as a traitor. Your annalists in Kiev are getting more and more desperate to move attention away from the complete failure their paramilitary/militia is facing in eastern Ukraine.

Nothing to gain? Aren't you the one claiming he is still the legitimate President of entire Ukraine?

He is, you can be a president of a country with 5% approval rating. Of course free and fair elections not organized by a junta should chose your successor. Which is a little hard to do when cities that make up 15% of your population and 1/4th of your economy think a junta controlling the country is such a bad idea that they take up arms. And when the interim government have Grad multiple rocket launcher system's and self propelled guns aimed at a city of 100,000 people that is getting blockaded by its own country... talking about elections on may 25th is stupid.

lol, you are so funny trying to keep your world views from falling apart.

Yeah man, my world view that a president should be elected by the people with elections is so outdated. All this modernist shit going on in Ukraine way ahead of me.


Show nested quote +
talking about elections on may 25th is stupid.


Yeah. Right.

Do you even read what you're writing, or just hammering on the keyboard to vent? They're trying to hold the elections that you oh so value, there's just the tiny problem of insurgents running rampant and telling you in advance that, whatever the outcome, they won't accept it. And no. The population doesn't take up arms. Retards do. The population doesn't want the interim government, but they also don't want those fucktards with rocketlaunchers/assault rifles running wild. Conveniently ignored by you, even worse, you actually connect "people" with "terrorists/rebels".

Get real.


Did you just take two quotes out of context to mock someone for hammering on the keyboard to vent? A little ironic.
Don't sweat the petty stuff, don't pet the sweaty stuff.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 16:52:14
May 07 2014 16:50 GMT
#10169
US satellites show no troop pullback.
http://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/464072229374795776

Separatist leader talks about delaying the referendum by one week, so it will be held before the 18th of May
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Mc
Profile Joined March 2010
332 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 16:53:37
May 07 2014 16:53 GMT
#10170
@DeepElemBlues

I totally agree - he's trying to make it seem like he's helping resolve the crisis, which is offensive to say the least. As you stated, a major factor seems to be the fact that Ukraine's military has regained enough composure that they are making headway against the separatists.

I also wonder if the Odessa fire played a role in this - "I can tone down my aggressive actions, now that pro-Russians are so inflamed about the fire (amongst other things) that they'll continue to hate Kiev and destabilize for a long time". Honestly, I doubt it was a significant factor, but it's sad that these are the sorts of calculations that Putin is making.
5hh.gg
Cheerio
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Ukraine3178 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 17:45:57
May 07 2014 17:01 GMT
#10171
Another intercepted discussion from SBU

A talk between separatist Boycov Dmitriy and Russian coordinator Barkashov A.P. (wiki)

Boycov says literally that if Russia doesn't help them, they are f***ed. And that there is no way to hold the referendum. In return Barkashov is lecturing him that they are out of their mind out there and nobody needs to run around counting f***ing papers. He insists they should just say the numbers whichever they like, suggesting 89%. Boycov says ok, we have a vote for Donetsk Republic, what's next? Barkashov replies it depends on what Ukraine will do, and that everyone in Russia is worked up (especially Kadyrov) and they don't understand what Putin is waiting for. Boycov says if Putin doesn't help, everyone in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus will be alienated against him.

P.S. the discussion took place yesterday.
P.P.S. there is a translated version
+ Show Spoiler +
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
May 07 2014 17:03 GMT
#10172
lol this is fantastic stuff.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Zookeeper
Profile Joined January 2012
Greece3 Posts
May 07 2014 17:09 GMT
#10173
http://ersieesist.livejournal.com/813.html?nojs=1
kukarachaa
Profile Joined February 2011
United States284 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 17:19:53
May 07 2014 17:18 GMT
#10174
On May 08 2014 02:03 oneofthem wrote:
lol this is fantastic stuff.



Not really, it is posted on a reddit and this is a top comment.

"Misleading title by SBU and OP. This is a recorded conversation between (allegedly) old and extremely outdated nationalist, leader of RNE, barely known to most modern russians and talking head at his best Barkashov - and some previously completely unknown guy from unknown organization named "Orthodox Donbass", not even one of the rebels' leaders. And this is evidence? Really? No, this is another piece of bullshit propaganda."
Greem
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
730 Posts
May 07 2014 17:51 GMT
#10175
On May 08 2014 02:18 kukarachaa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 02:03 oneofthem wrote:
lol this is fantastic stuff.



Not really, it is posted on a reddit and this is a top comment.

"Misleading title by SBU and OP. This is a recorded conversation between (allegedly) old and extremely outdated nationalist, leader of RNE, barely known to most modern russians and talking head at his best Barkashov - and some previously completely unknown guy from unknown organization named "Orthodox Donbass", not even one of the rebels' leaders. And this is evidence? Really? No, this is another piece of bullshit propaganda."


good to know someone actually checking some stuff out to see if its relevant and what importanly looks more like truth, which is out there, somewhere. Shameful display , those who blindly believe everything they see without checking it at least several hundred times, that is , if they really interested in getting to the point, and not just posting the confirmation to they beliefs and personal opinion.
youtube.com/N0rthernL1ght
PaleMan
Profile Joined October 2002
Russian Federation1953 Posts
May 07 2014 17:54 GMT
#10176
lol, Barkashov - someone from 90s (and even in 90s he wasn't popular at all)
Pure fan
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6343 Posts
May 07 2014 18:11 GMT
#10177
On May 08 2014 01:36 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Putin has also said the separatists should delay their referendum. I think he's flailing just a little bit right now, he expected Kiev to crawl into the fetal position when he threatened it repeatedly about sending soldiers against the separatists. Implying that Russia would invade if Kiev didn't submit was the main thrust of Russian policy for a week and a half and it failed. Kiev called his bluff and now he needs to regain his equilibrium because the sense is that events on the ground are in charge at the moment and not Vladimir Putin.

In reality Putin says some shit, Russian stock market improves, shit still going on in east Ukraine, Crimea still Russian.

Whatever anyone says will anyway be spun later to fit an agenda. Russia asks for peace = Putin weak, lets all make fun of him. Russia doesn't back down = omg Soviet Union
Pre-emptive retaliatory de-escalation action
DeepElemBlues
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States5079 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 18:30:45
May 07 2014 18:12 GMT
#10178
geez louise

"Misleading title by SBU and OP.


unsupported assertion

This is a recorded conversation between (allegedly) old and extremely outdated nationalist,


irrelevant

leader of RNE, barely known to most modern russians


irrelevant

and talking head at his best Barkashov


unsupported assertion also irrelevant

and some previously completely unknown guy from unknown organization named "Orthodox Donbass"


two unsupported assertions

not even one of the rebels' leaders.


unsupported assertion

And this is evidence? Really?


this is an argument? really?

No, this is another piece of bullshit propaganda."


i agree, that comment against this recording is bullshit propaganda.

barkashov being barely known to most modern russians = completely irrelevant to whether he could be used by the kremlin as a coordinator for separatists.

Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 02:54 PaleMan wrote:
lol, Barkashov - someone from 90s (and even in 90s he wasn't popular at all)



irrelevant.

there is literally nothing in that comment that is either supported or relevant. barkashov's popularity or relevance in russian politics has zero relevancy to whether or not he is being used or could be used as a coordinator by the kremlin.

this is how you demagogue - toss a bunch of irrelevant denigrating shit against your target and hope some of it sticks. barkashov's allegedly being "extremely old and outdated" has zero bearing on whether or not he could be a kremlin agent. "talking head at best" is an unsupported assertion. "previously completely unknown guy" = unsupported assertion. "unknown organization" = unsupported assertion. i highly doubt this guy knows the name of every single separatist organization operating in eastern ukraine anyway. it's all misdirection and minimizing, the hallmarks of the propagandist. maybe this recording is fake as can be but that comment doesn't prove jack.

In reality Putin says some shit, Russian stock market improves, shit still going on in east Ukraine, Crimea still Russian.

Whatever anyone says will anyway be spun later to fit an agenda. Russia asks for peace = Putin weak, lets all make fun of him. Russia doesn't back down = omg Soviet Union


in reality today is the first day the russian stock market has done anything other than shrink or stagnate in almost a month. putin saying "some shit" indicating a possible russian backdown lowers the belief that more sanctions are coming and encourages buying instead of selling. ruble still falling (1% today). i guess we're supposed to ignore the russian stock market losing 13% of its value in a month because today it went up 3.4% (not 3.4% of what it was, 3.4% from where it had fallen to). today doesn't mean it went from losing 13% to losing 9.6%, more like 13% to 12.8% or something at best.

i did not say "russia asks for peace = putin weak, lets all make fun of him" and i did not make fun of him myself.

yes, whatever anyone says will be spun later, you're spinning faster than a centrifuge right now.
no place i'd rather be than the satellite of love
Derez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Netherlands6068 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-07 18:26:27
May 07 2014 18:23 GMT
#10179
On May 08 2014 03:12 DeepElemBlues wrote:

barkashov being barely known to most modern russians = completely irrelevant to whether he could be used by the kremlin as a coordinator for separatists.


ultranationalists having links with other ultranationalists. who would have thought. By your logic any russian is a 'potential coordinator'. These phonecalls shouldn't even be part of the discussion at all. They can't be verified.
DeepElemBlues
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States5079 Posts
May 07 2014 18:30 GMT
#10180
On May 08 2014 03:23 Derez wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 03:12 DeepElemBlues wrote:b

arkashov being barely known to most modern russians = completely irrelevant to whether he could be used by the kremlin as a coordinator for separatists.


ultranationalists having links with other ultranationalists. who would have thought. By your logic any russian is a 'potential coordinator'. These phonecalls shouldn't even be part of the discussion at all. They can't be verified in the first place.


no that isn't my logic and i wonder how you could have arrived at that conclusion. it would require placing a step in my reasoning that doesn't exist. there are plenty of apparatchiks who most russians have never heard of who are intimately involved in the ukraine crisis, does saying that mean that by its logic any russian is a potential coordinator? come on now.

ultranationalists having links with other ultranationalists would tend to support the idea that barkashov could be helping coordinate between moscow and donetsk. ultranationalist rank-and-filers probably don't have direct connections to and communications with ultranationalists in other countries, but an ultranationalist politician - no matter how allegedly old and outdated - probably does.
no place i'd rather be than the satellite of love
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