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Ukraine Crisis

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There is a new policy in effect in this thread. Anyone not complying will be moderated.

New policy, please read before posting:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=21393711
Cheerio
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Ukraine3178 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-03-15 00:51:17
December 02 2013 21:44 GMT
#1
A timeline of Euromaidan
+ Show Spoiler +
There were peaceful protests.
They were dispersed with inadequate violence.
The society gets outraged, around 1 million people get out in the streets. Some of the clashes with police result in violence.
Another dispersal attempt, Euromaidan holds.
Yanukovich decides to wait it out. Activists are being beaten, tortured, killed and put to prison everywhere besides Maidan.
Maidan stands for two months and counting.
"Draconic" laws against democratic freedoms are passed in the Parliament. Yanukovich signs those.
After another "Viche" meeting and another failure by the opposition to do something, Maidan goes to the Parliament but is stopped by police. Violence insues, started by radical Euromaidan activists.
After a few days of constant violence and numerous injuries on both sides police start shooting people.
Western and Central Ukraine rebel. Regional State Administrations are being captured.
Pro-Yanukovich MPs are holding negotiations with the opposition. Yanukovich needs to act or he would have lost the Parliament to the opposition. The "draconic" laws get reversed, Azarov fired, but his Cabinet of Ministers stays. Amnesty for the protesters is granted in return for the administrative buildings.
More time passes and Yanukovich still does nothing to satisfy the initial demands of Euromaidan.
Radical Euromaidan activists go to the Parliament. Violence breaks out again. Activists retreat to Maidan.
Yanukovich is pressed by Putin to put an end to Euromaidan to receive the next loan which he needs desperately to keep the economy from defaulting. He also smells weakness after the recent small victory and orders his troops forward. An ultimatum is set for the Euromaidan to clear the place out or else...
Police attacks. Casualties on both sides from gunfire, but Maidan holds. Yanukovich has proofs that activists are in possession of firearms. Regions of Ukraine rebel again. This time not just RSAs are being captured, but also SBU, MVD headquarters and prosecutor's offices. Almost all of Western Ukraine goes down in just a few hours.
Antiterrorist actions are introduced. Snipers start shooting activists by dozens, mostly going for their heads. Klichko goes for the negotiations with Yanukovich. Yanukovich would not speak of anything besides Euromaidan clearance.
The Parliament barely holds a meeting (around 240 members of 450) and orders the governmental troops to go home (only troops from Eastern and Southern regions were used in active measures against the protesters), restricts the use of gun-fire against civil protests, and puts an end to the antiterroristic campaign.
Negotiations with Yanukovich and oppostions start with the help of EU MFAs (Poland, France, Germany) and some Russians.
Yanukovich threatens to introduce the martial law and drown the revolution in blood. EU MFAs pressure the opposition into signing the deal.
Euromaidan does not accept the deal, Yanukovich has to go.
SBU, MVD, army one by one claim they support the people of Ukraine and would not use force against them.
The Parliament feels pressure to resolve the conflict by either giving up to Yanukovich or Euromaidan, or something terrible might happen. They choose the side of Euromaidan and start adopting the laws beyond the scope of the deal.
Yanukovich, already out of Kyiv, states he would not sign those laws. Claims there is coup d'etat going on.
The Parliament impeaches Yanukovich.



Initial Euromaidan description
+ Show Spoiler +

The 2013 Ukraine pro-European Union protests or Euromaidan (Ukrainian: Євромайдан) protests in Ukraine began on the night of 21 November 2013, when Ukrainian citizens started spontaneous protests in the capital of Kiev. On the previous day, 21 November 2013, the Ukrainian government suspended preparations for signing an Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the European Union. The protests are ongoing despite a heavy police presence, and an increasing number of university students are joining the protests. Law enforcement agencies, namely Berkut (a special unit of the Ministry of Internal Affairs), violently and without provocation attacked peacefully protesting students and journalists in the early morning of 30 November. The escalating violence from government forces has caused the level of protests to rise, with 350,000–1,600,000 protesters demonstrating in Kiev at the movement's peak on December 1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Ukraine_pro-European_Union_protests


Key points:
- main cause: suspension of the European Union Association Agreement by the government. The failed agreement is believed to be the result of Russia blackmailing Ukraine, that it will close it's market for the Ukrainian products if the agreement is signed.
- on the early hours on the 30th of November all protesters were dispersed from the Square of Independence (Maidan Nezalejnosti) by Berkut (special units of Ukrainian police). Police was chasing down fleeing people and continuosly beating them. No warning was given before the attack took place. Mobile phone connection was surpressed during the attack. In Ukraine the raid is widely regarded to be sanctioned by the President and the Prime Minister, though they denounced the action. Minister of Internal Affairs claimed "riot police abused their power" but added "if there are calls for mass disturbances, then we will react to this harshly".
- on December 1 Kiev's District Administrative Court banned the further protests in downtown Kiev at both Maidan Nezalezhnosti and European Square, as well as in front of the Presidential Administration and Interior Ministry buildings, until 7 January 2014. But it didn't stop the most massive protests since the Orange Revolution. Around 500,000 were supposed to have gathered at Maidan Nezalezhnosti, and at least another 500,000 in other central streets and squares.
- Demands. The protests started off rather spontaneously and unorganized. Social media played a big role in organizing people. Currently there are demands for the President's and Government's resignation but that is unrealistic. President's impeachment is also unlikely since the Parliament is largely controlled by the propresidential party, though several deputies have left it after the latest events.


"Draconic" laws
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 17 2014 04:52 Cheerio wrote:
Ok, this is important.

Today the Ukrainian Parliament approved a set of laws. The way in which those were approved is basically a fraud. The voting was done not through an electronic voting system (which was working just fine), but by raising hands. Almost every time the number of positive votes was the same at 235 and the calculation was somehow done manually in just a few seconds. About the laws:

1) Rehabilitation of Berkut and other police officers for their actions against peaceful protests and journalists.

2) Participation in massive public order violations, disturbances of normal transport traffic (and other violations of the similar kind) can be punished by a fee of 150-250 minimal monthly wages or up to two years in prison. So participation in peaceful demonstrations on Maidan is basically a criminal offense now. In addition further restrictions on mass protests have been added. Setting up a tent, carrying a mask or a hard hat at the wrong time and place is punishable by up to 15 days in prison. Moving in car columns with more than 5 vehicles without road police ratification can be punished by a fee of up to 50 minimal monthly wages or vehicle confiscation.

3) Mobile Sim-cards can't be purchased without a passport from now on. Current Sim-card users would probably have to sign contracts with their service providers or have their service denied.

4) All Ukrainian websites operating as internet mass media are to be properly registered as information agencies or face severe sanctions. Needless to say many Ukrainian internet news agencies might have problems receiving a license. Also a special commission has the authority to force ISP's into denying access to such websites.

5) A new enactment has been added about extremist activities. Extremist activities involve calls to overthrow the government via mass media (internet social networks included). The penalty is 200-800 minimal monthly wages or prison sentence up to 3 years.

6) Slender is now a criminal offense. Slender is a deliberate distribution of false information about somebody. Punishment - up to two years in prison. It is expected that the law would be used against the journalists and oppositional politics who are looking too much into what current officials can afford with their low official salaries. Since it is almost impossible to prove ownership unless the authorities are willing to disclose information almost any information of such kind can be categorized as slender.

7) Collection of confidential information about judges or police officers or it's publication is against the law and can be punished by 200-400 minimal wages or 6 months prison sentence.

8) A concept of "foreign agent" has been introduced. It includes civil organizations receiving grants from abroad. Such organizations would be additionally taxed and would need to make reports of their activities on the monthly basis.


Violent events of 18–23 February 2014
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution

Crimean Crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_crisis
Gotard
Profile Joined December 2010
Poland446 Posts
December 02 2013 22:00 GMT
#2
You can hear information about this in polish TV all day long. I hope this will end as soon as possible in a peaceful way. I wonder how different far east is form western Ukraine? Are they also support anti-government protests?
"who needs girls when u can play as a protoss or riki" Fen1kz 2013
Cheerio
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Ukraine3178 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-03 15:50:22
December 03 2013 15:49 GMT
#3
3rd of December. In the Parliament opposition tried to vote the Prime Minister out of office but the vote failed. The same vote can't be had again untill the February 2014.
HeeroFX
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States2704 Posts
December 03 2013 16:44 GMT
#4
I won't lie when I read the title I thought we were talking about European women...But instead I learned about something I didn't know about.
Gotard
Profile Joined December 2010
Poland446 Posts
December 03 2013 18:43 GMT
#5
On December 04 2013 01:44 HeeroFX wrote:
I won't lie when I read the title I thought we were talking about European women...But instead I learned about something I didn't know about.

They don't talk about this in US?

This is some next level imba strategy:


Also is this true?

I hope that Yanukovych is sane and won't try to hold the power at all cost.

Cheerio can you talk a little about situation in other big cites (especially on eastern side of the Ukraine)?
"who needs girls when u can play as a protoss or riki" Fen1kz 2013
AnachronisticAnarchy
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States2957 Posts
December 03 2013 19:01 GMT
#6
Wasn't under the impression that Ukraine was the type of country where wanton brutality on this scale could happen. Let's hope this doesn't escalate.
Oh, Gotard, could you translate that tank tweet for the English audience on TL? A bunch of tanks in a line looks scary but we have no idea what specifically that tweet is saying.
"How are you?" "I am fine, because it is not normal to scream in pain."
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
December 03 2013 19:11 GMT
#7
I came about a moderate-looking EU-positive ukrainian source explaining some myths about the demonstrations and their background:
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/editorial/myths-realities-332613.html
2 small exerpts:
Myth: Violent clashes between police and protesters have marred these demonstrations.

Reality: The clashes make for dramatic footage and photos. But both police and protesters have been commendably restrained


Myth: The EuroMaidan demonstrators agree with Yanukovych and Prime Minister Mykola Azarov. Everybody is on the same team.

Reality: Yanukovych and Azarov show a stunning detachment from reality, or merely cynical posturing, when they try to adopt EuroMaidan’s cause of closer European integration as their own. They richly deserve the peaceful protests they are witnessing...
Repeat before me
Cheerio
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Ukraine3178 Posts
December 03 2013 19:17 GMT
#8
An interesting view on the geopolitical complications of the issue can be found here

http://www.carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/index.cfm?fa=53715&lang=en&postCommentStatus=1

most relevant
Furthermore, Russia made it clear to the rest of the planet that the only way it can succeed in its neighborhood is not through the attractiveness of what it has to offer, but through blackmail and coercion. Not that this was entirely unknown before, but the utter crassness of the Ukraine case will make many governments in the region and elsewhere think twice about their dealings with Moscow.
Cheerio
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Ukraine3178 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-03 19:45:02
December 03 2013 19:31 GMT
#9
On December 04 2013 03:43 Gotard wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2013 01:44 HeeroFX wrote:
I won't lie when I read the title I thought we were talking about European women...But instead I learned about something I didn't know about.


Also is this true?
https://twitter.com/dara_dasha/status/407853531341660160
I hope that Yanukovych is sane and won't try to hold the power at all cost.

Cheerio can you talk a little about situation in other big cites (especially on eastern side of the Ukraine)?


The photo looks like to be taken in the summer-time, plus a quick search on the net shows those are russian tanks in the Caucases. Also the picture is the first one to jump out if you google search for images with "tanks column" in Russian language.

Almost all the info I have about the eastern Ukraine you can find on the wiki Euromaidan article. I read some reports of the pro-Presidential rallies in the East and South, but those were almost entirely people working in the governmental institutions who were forced to come under the fear of being fired.

On December 04 2013 04:01 AnachronisticAnarchy wrote:
Wasn't under the impression that Ukraine was the type of country where wanton brutality on this scale could happen. Let's hope this doesn't escalate.
Oh, Gotard, could you translate that tank tweet for the English audience on TL? A bunch of tanks in a line looks scary but we have no idea what specifically that tweet is saying.

The tweet says the tanks are near Kyiv (capital).
Shiragaku
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Hong Kong4308 Posts
December 03 2013 20:09 GMT
#10
The same thing happened in Moldova
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_"Pro_Europe"_demonstration_in_Moldova

What makes me curious however is if this would be a good idea for both nations seeing how the dream was not exactly fulfilled in Bulgaria and Greece and given that this is still a scary time for the Eurozone.
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
December 03 2013 20:22 GMT
#11
On December 04 2013 05:09 Shiragaku wrote:
The same thing happened in Moldova
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_"Pro_Europe"_demonstration_in_Moldova

What makes me curious however is if this would be a good idea for both nations seeing how the dream was not exactly fulfilled in Bulgaria and Greece and given that this is still a scary time for the Eurozone.


What the hell do you mean by "dream was not exactly fullfiled"? Do you have any idea how dramaticaly has life changed in the past 15 years in Bulgary, for the large part thanks to the investments from the EU and the pressure from EU to cut down on corruption and establish a woking system of law?

I have not too much personal experience with Bulgary, but I now personaly some Romanians and the fate of the two countries is very similiar - 15 years ago, some parts of Romania weren't really safe to walk around. I was there back then and talked with people who lived off $100 a month and whatever they were able to grow in the garden and shoot in the forest. Today it is, for the most part, a standart european country. Yes, they are not Germany-rich, but it really doesn't make any sense to expect such a level of equalisation after losing half a century to a corrupt authoritative regime. And Greece, which has been living off European money for decades until the bubble bursted?

If anything, these experiences show that enetering the EU is extremely beneficial for a poor country. The only problem is when you become too greedy on "social comforts" without putting in the work to back it up, but after the Greek lesson, people are much more careful about that. Yes, I have a long list of things that I hate about the EU and at the moment (meaning, after we got bilions of Euro in sturctural support) I won't mind getting out of it, but for Ukraine, it is the one and only saving grace.
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
Saryph
Profile Joined April 2010
United States1955 Posts
December 03 2013 20:26 GMT
#12
I hadn't heard about this story until a few days ago, and then someone posted this video, which is supposedly armor being moved by rail into the Kiev region due to the protests.



Seems troubling that it's got to the point where you have hundreds of thousands of protesters, and word that Putin is trying to force other countries into not having relationships with western Europe.
Cheerio
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Ukraine3178 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-03 22:19:47
December 03 2013 22:01 GMT
#13
On December 04 2013 05:26 Saryph wrote:
I hadn't heard about this story until a few days ago, and then someone posted this video, which is supposedly armor being moved by rail into the Kiev region due to the protests.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E3EvNdNp64

Seems troubling that it's got to the point where you have hundreds of thousands of protesters, and word that Putin is trying to force other countries into not having relationships with western Europe.

that video looks like it was reuploaded.
Cheerio
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Ukraine3178 Posts
December 03 2013 22:19 GMT
#14
30th of November events
Crushinator
Profile Joined August 2011
Netherlands2138 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-03 23:21:45
December 03 2013 23:15 GMT
#15
I hope Ukraine can find a good solution to this problem. I don't know how Russia would react if an association agreement is finalized, the threats are quite ominous, but I doubt it would be in Russia's best interest to alienate Ukraine any further.
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4742 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-04 07:20:32
December 04 2013 07:15 GMT
#16
Also its isnt about eurozone. EU and euroze are tottaly different things.

"
Furthermore, Russia made it clear to the rest of the planet that the only way it can succeed in its neighborhood is not through the attractiveness of what it has to offer, but through blackmail and coercion. Not that this was entirely unknown before, but the utter crassness of the Ukraine case will make many governments in the region and elsewhere think twice about their dealings with Moscow.
"
This is BS. Every neighbour of Russia already knew this, for decades in for centuries. Russia loves to strongarm everything. They respect only strenght, given the choice between negotataing and forcing someone they will choose force. Its only western countries that begin to understand this. Still they will forgot this lesson after few quite years. Its always the same.
Pathetic Greta hater.
Cheerio
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Ukraine3178 Posts
December 04 2013 07:29 GMT
#17
On December 04 2013 16:15 Silvanel wrote:
Also its isnt about eurozone. EU and euroze are tottaly different things.

"
Furthermore, Russia made it clear to the rest of the planet that the only way it can succeed in its neighborhood is not through the attractiveness of what it has to offer, but through blackmail and coercion. Not that this was entirely unknown before, but the utter crassness of the Ukraine case will make many governments in the region and elsewhere think twice about their dealings with Moscow.
"
This is BS. Every neighbour of Russia already knew this, for decades in for centuries. Russia loves to strongarm everything. They respect only strenght, given the choice between negotataing and forcing someone they will choose force. Its only western countries that begin to understand this. Still they will forgot this lesson after few quite years. Its always the same.

so what exactly is BS about it? That the case is utterly crass or that the other governments in the region will take note from it?
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4742 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-04 07:58:41
December 04 2013 07:45 GMT
#18
On December 04 2013 16:29 Cheerio wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2013 16:15 Silvanel wrote:
Also its isnt about eurozone. EU and euroze are tottaly different things.

"
Furthermore, Russia made it clear to the rest of the planet that the only way it can succeed in its neighborhood is not through the attractiveness of what it has to offer, but through blackmail and coercion. Not that this was entirely unknown before, but the utter crassness of the Ukraine case will make many governments in the region and elsewhere think twice about their dealings with Moscow.
"
This is BS. Every neighbour of Russia already knew this, for decades in for centuries. Russia loves to strongarm everything. They respect only strenght, given the choice between negotataing and forcing someone they will choose force. Its only western countries that begin to understand this. Still they will forgot this lesson after few quite years. Its always the same.

so what exactly is BS about it? That the case is utterly crass or that the other governments in the region will take note from it?


The quote make it sound like this is some new devlopment. It isnt. We knew it all along. Yet Western Europe seem surprised every time it happens.
Pathetic Greta hater.
mdb
Profile Blog Joined February 2003
Bulgaria4059 Posts
December 04 2013 08:01 GMT
#19
On December 04 2013 05:22 opisska wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2013 05:09 Shiragaku wrote:
The same thing happened in Moldova
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_"Pro_Europe"_demonstration_in_Moldova

What makes me curious however is if this would be a good idea for both nations seeing how the dream was not exactly fulfilled in Bulgaria and Greece and given that this is still a scary time for the Eurozone.


What the hell do you mean by "dream was not exactly fullfiled"? Do you have any idea how dramaticaly has life changed in the past 15 years in Bulgary, for the large part thanks to the investments from the EU and the pressure from EU to cut down on corruption and establish a woking system of law?

I have not too much personal experience with Bulgary, but I now personaly some Romanians and the fate of the two countries is very similiar - 15 years ago, some parts of Romania weren't really safe to walk around. I was there back then and talked with people who lived off $100 a month and whatever they were able to grow in the garden and shoot in the forest. Today it is, for the most part, a standart european country. Yes, they are not Germany-rich, but it really doesn't make any sense to expect such a level of equalisation after losing half a century to a corrupt authoritative regime. And Greece, which has been living off European money for decades until the bubble bursted?

If anything, these experiences show that enetering the EU is extremely beneficial for a poor country. The only problem is when you become too greedy on "social comforts" without putting in the work to back it up, but after the Greek lesson, people are much more careful about that. Yes, I have a long list of things that I hate about the EU and at the moment (meaning, after we got bilions of Euro in sturctural support) I won't mind getting out of it, but for Ukraine, it is the one and only saving grace.


EU may be great when you border Germany and Austria, but thats not the case for Bulgaria for sure. I`m sure EU wont work for Ukraine also.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
December 04 2013 12:03 GMT
#20
On December 04 2013 17:01 mdb wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 04 2013 05:22 opisska wrote:
On December 04 2013 05:09 Shiragaku wrote:
The same thing happened in Moldova
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_"Pro_Europe"_demonstration_in_Moldova

What makes me curious however is if this would be a good idea for both nations seeing how the dream was not exactly fulfilled in Bulgaria and Greece and given that this is still a scary time for the Eurozone.


What the hell do you mean by "dream was not exactly fullfiled"? Do you have any idea how dramaticaly has life changed in the past 15 years in Bulgary, for the large part thanks to the investments from the EU and the pressure from EU to cut down on corruption and establish a woking system of law?

I have not too much personal experience with Bulgary, but I now personaly some Romanians and the fate of the two countries is very similiar - 15 years ago, some parts of Romania weren't really safe to walk around. I was there back then and talked with people who lived off $100 a month and whatever they were able to grow in the garden and shoot in the forest. Today it is, for the most part, a standart european country. Yes, they are not Germany-rich, but it really doesn't make any sense to expect such a level of equalisation after losing half a century to a corrupt authoritative regime. And Greece, which has been living off European money for decades until the bubble bursted?

If anything, these experiences show that enetering the EU is extremely beneficial for a poor country. The only problem is when you become too greedy on "social comforts" without putting in the work to back it up, but after the Greek lesson, people are much more careful about that. Yes, I have a long list of things that I hate about the EU and at the moment (meaning, after we got bilions of Euro in sturctural support) I won't mind getting out of it, but for Ukraine, it is the one and only saving grace.


EU may be great when you border Germany and Austria, but thats not the case for Bulgaria for sure. I`m sure EU wont work for Ukraine also.

It is not about EU as such. It is about a trade agreement with easing on visa restrictions. The only real alternative is the russian trade agreement with the restrictions from that. Not choosing sides is not an option and neither is choosing both.

On the short term there may be a small advantage for eastern Ukraine if they choose Russia, but in the longer terms Russia has alienated EU a lot through their strong-arming. They are not looking too pretty if they wanna bank on EU to drive their growth.
Repeat before me
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