[ASL21] Grand Finals - Page 40

On May 26 2026 15:24 FlaShFTW wrote:
Ok, let's review the game state at 3:41, which is where I felt the critical moment of the game occurs.

1. FlaSh has just gotten his bunker up with a marine inside.
2. Upon seeing the bunker finish, Soma elects to runby into the main. The units that survive the runby are as follows: 3 speedlings, 2 drones.
3. FlaSh's supply is 18/36, with no SCVs producing and 1 marine in production. He has 2 marines (1 in bunker, one that was just made). Therefore, we know that he has 15 scvs alive at this moment (18-3=15). 14 are in his base, 1 is scouting and about to enter Soma's main.
4. Soma's supply is 14/17. He has 3 lings in FlaSh's main and 2 drones (4 supply). He has 3 more pairs of lings currently running across the map (FlaSh's natural ramp, center of the map, and his own natural). We also know that he has another pair of lings in production (at 3:58, we see the lings running across the map). Based on this information, we know that Soma has 6 supply of zerglings, 2 supply of drones in FlaSh's main, and the rest are drones in his base, so he only has 6 drones mining.
5. FlaSh only has 77 minerals while Soma has 300 minerals and 116 gas.

So to check our work, FlaSh has 14 scvs in his base (1 scout), 2 marines. 1 barracks with building marine, and 2 CC. His sim city is at his natural, with only a 77 mineral bank.

Soma has 6 drones mining, 2 drones and 3 lings inside of FlaSh's main with rallied zerglings. He has speed, and a reasonable bank of 300/100.

If at this moment, FlaSh lifts his main CC and runs his SCVs to the natural to mine and protect the bunker, I feel he is in advantageous state. Yes, he will not be mining for a brief moment as his main SCVs transfer to the natural, but he also has 9 SCVs already at the natural that were attempting to hold off the attack. Those 9 scvs can get to mining on 7 patches very quickly, and he can begin to also make more SCVs from his natural CC. The 5 SCVs that transfer can hold the bunker with 2 marines inside. 7 patches should be more than enough to stabilize, nonstop produce marines (no supply depots needed for a long time as he has the 2 CCs providing ample supply), re-establish the wall to prevent further ling runbys, and tech to 2 rax acad and retake the main.

Soma has two choices: he could either expand off 6 drones and take a natural and begin to drone, or he could keep the pressure and tech to lair while droning behind. But, Soma does not have larva banked up as he was constantly producing zerglings to aid the attack. So if he expands, his extremely low drone count would make it very difficult to catch up to FlaSh's already established 9 SCV economy (assuming he uses the main 5 SCVs to guard the bunker). If he techs, lair is going to be 63 seconds away, with the next piece of tech being either muta or lurker which will be another 2 minutes away after that for mutas, even longer for lurkers. More than enough time for FlaSh to have produced enough marines to retake his main and establish a reasonable 2 base, 2 rax academy setup. Also, FlaSh knows all of this (or should know all of this) because he has that 1 scout in Soma's base. He should know that Soma's economic and tech position was still in the stone age.

FlaSh instead tries to fend off the runby with SCVs and one singular marine. 2 more lings runby to now make it 5 total lings, and with speed instantly kill the marine and an SCV. But 1 pair of lings dies trying to runby after the marine dies.

At 4:00 now, the supplies are 13 for Soma (same position basically but now 5 vs 3 lings) and 17 for FlaSh. Essentially, subtract 1 supply of lings and 1 marine and SCV from FlaSh. He still had the opportunity to cut his losses protecting the main and flee to the natural here. Soma still doesn't have lair started, or his natural hatch started, which he only starts at 4:15. Once FlaSh lost that one marine, it was impossible to defend the main with reasonable efficiency against 5 speedlings and 2 drones. He would slowly have his main SCVs get picked off one by one.

The second runby seals the deal, with 5 more reinforcing. FlaSh FINALLY pulls the SCVs and sends his 4 marines up to defend the main (why didn't he fight with his SCVs?) and gets surrounded of course and loses.

I'm not blaming FlaSh by the way, the game was a very chaotic situation, and FlaSh's mentality likely was to crush the runby and win the game right there and then. He did not want to get drawn out into an awkward position that could turn into a longer game of attrition, as this was game 7 and his wrists were clearly deteriorating.

I also understand that Soma's perspective is that he was ahead after the runby. But according to Jinjin, he says that "I can continuously disrupt mining". But look at the position of FlaSh's bunker. How will he disrupt natural mining when the bunker is positioned so well. If Soma wants to commit to harassing the mineral line, the lings would come into the bunker's range. The interviewer also mentions "there wasn't enough workers mining". But FlaSh has 9 SCVs in the natural. Even if we assume that FlaSh will play on the safer side and use some SCVs to hold the wall, he still has some income while the main SCVs are transferred and he has 77 minerals to at least begin producing an SCV from the natural.

(By the way, using Soma's words and opinion about the position of the game without actually looking at the underlying facts is an appeal to authority. Look at the underlying facts, not just what Soma was saying).