EPTWorld Heavyweight Championship mafia III - Page 179
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On August 11 2014 14:23 goodkarma wrote: Do you seriously think we stand a snowflake's prayer in hell of getting through this game without ensuring everyone consolidates? What I suggested is one way to ensure a non-scum influenced lynch. There's enough scummy people in this game right now that we're very unlikely to go 3 for 3 otherwise. Otherwise scum just goes "yeah this guy looks scummy," steers a lynch, and we lose gg. As it is, it's a very hard battle. I kinda doubt we recover and win this. But /sheep is the best thing we can do. And if you /sheep the dude who just died, you guarantee a townie-led lynch. And if you have that dude post the desired lynch target just before deadline, scum nightkill couldn't have possibly been influenced by directing a mislynch based on people's reads. There's no doubt other ways to go about this, but I like mine the bestest. If you want to come up with your own method feel free to, but I'd encourage you to think up something instead of berating me and fast. It's pretty clear you're going pants-on-head right now. Quite honestly, if you're going to be super-bad and disregard any suggestions to ensure some semblance of consolidation and as a result, ensure we lose, I really don't have the energy to argue right now. I can't be bothered to dive in and solve this game anything I say will probably get ignored anyway. People have this super-stupid idea that if you don't post a ton you don't have anything meaningful to say. And so we get caught up in this shit-post war when anything off the top of your mind gets thrown onto paper and posted. It doesn't do anyone any favors, makes the game unreadable, and hurts town. This is probably my last game for at least a while. It was nowhere near this bad before, and I honestly can't understand how it ever got this way. Only playing limited post games if I play in the future 20+ page shitfilters aren't worth my time. Sheeping whoever the mafia nightkills is literally putting the game into the mafia's hands unless all the townies are on the same page (at which point we don't even need to sheep). No matter what we try to come up with, solving the consolidation problem is hard and there are no easy solutions; welcome to LYLO, it fucking blows. What definitely won't solve the game is agreeing to sheep beforehand. Everyone should be busting their balls trying to figure this thing out. And in that vein, how are you gonna look at me, goodkarma, tell me I'm going pants-on-head super-stupid, tell me you don't think you can be bothered to solve the game and then just talk about consolidation and needing to work together? This sounds to me like you're saying "You're wrong and I don't feel like explaining why," which is... Understandable I guess if you really are town and mad, but it's also alarming and giving me scarce little reason to reconsider my scum read on you. As an aside... And if I'm wrong I'm about to make an ass out of myself but I'm sure I've already done that if I'm wrong so fuck it: this complaining about the activity level doesn't seem genuine to me. You see gents, goodkarma and I were hydras in Melee Mini, a game of comparable activity level to this one. Goodkarma didn't post much but he had no trouble keeping up with the game and giving me bunches of good reads and advice as I did my thing. I can see his complaint to some degree since the quality of the activity in this game is lower than that one, but I don't think the game is significantly more difficult to read than that one. Maybe this is goodkarma's boiling point... Or he's mafia. If it's the former then I really am sorry but I think it's the latter and I feel pretty good about that read. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On August 11 2014 20:30 Holyflare wrote: I've posted almost entirely on my phone this game hence the not over elaborate posts (you can tell for future reference if i start post with capital letters) That explains away a fair number of the stylistic discrepancies, but I still feel like your reads this game haven't been as well-explained as I expected. Especially given your confidence level in them | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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gobbledydook
Australia2593 Posts
On August 11 2014 21:32 Eden1892 wrote: In order I want to lynch Holyflare then goodkarma. I'm kinda waffly on my Haru and justanothertownie reads and so I don't mind waiting until the end for that. But I'm more confident in Holyflare and goodkarma than I've been in any read I can remember all game; if I'm right on them then I think my reads on everyone else pretty well fall into place by associations; and if I'm wrong then we lose anyway, so I would rather focus attention on the reads I feel good about and see if I can get them lynched or if I have another change of heart. Your case on HF can be boiled down to one sentence: he's good but somehow not dead. Your jat case is basically an association case, so if HF is scum then jat is scum. The goodkarma case I can agree with, now that I think about it I don't really seem to have noticed him post anything important or striking, and that's a good mafia heuristic. Once we lynch goodkarma and he flips scum, we can then see whether HF gets nightkilled (after you presumably). | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
The key point about Holyflare that I've emphasized over and over is the discrepancy I see between the strength of his arguments and the fervor with which he's pushed them. Pushing things you believe in is townie to a point, but if the things you're pushing flat-out don't make sense - like the Poofter/gobble superbus - and you're stating them in terms that are grossly overselling their strength, I consider that scummy because it betrays a certain intractability that comes from not having a dynamic picture of the game state. Doubly so if, like with the Poofter/gobble argument, there's a clear scum motive for pushing it. Wave didn't put it in the same terms in his case on Holyflare, but he observed a different manifestation of that intractability, which I discussed in my analysis of his case. Holyflare isn't trying to convince people of the validity of his positions, and when you sit down and look at some of the arguments he's pushed, it's probably because the positions he holds aren't actually valid at all on deeper inspection. I keep harping on the Poofter/gobble thing but it really is a great example of what I mean. There's no fucking reason to think they were busing with the ironclad confidence with which he did! None whatsoever! I have to keep acknowledging it's possible because, well, it is (barring the flip blabla), but there's no reason to believe it's the most likely outcome, let alone the far-and-away most likely outcome like Holyflare thought. The scum motive is obvious, a double kill on townies there = gg. In fact gobble if you're town you specifically should find this compelling because you're the only person who knows without a doubt that you're town. As far as the order it's important to me to get Holyflare first because I feel like the longer this goes on the more likely it is to lose steam and never get pursued, especially if I get nightkilled before he gets lynched. The only time I really felt like I was making sense of the game state was when I was pushing on Holyflare n1 with kush, and I let myself get talked down by marv and a couple others I can't remember and I hate that I did that. I'm not letting this get away again. Please don't let this guy get away, he's too fucking good at arguing himself out of a bind. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
The two things that have bothered me the most about Holyflare this game have been, in combination, what I've repeatedly referenced as the "Confidence-Accuracy Discrepancy." Holyflare has been, in my reading, absurdly confident in the cases he's pushed and arguments he's made, far beyond the actual strength of his arguments and accuracy of his cases. It's important to note the nuance of this read: confidence tends to be considered a townie trait, not a mafia trait, and accuracy (or lack thereof) as a null trait. On balance townies tend to push ideas more confidently than mafia, and on balance both tend to be wrong a lot. So it's not enough to summarize this as "he's confident and wrong, therefore he's mafia." What we have to look at is why townies tend to be more confident in pushing their reads and why Holyflare's arguments were wrong. Townies tend to be more confident in pushing their reads because they're trying to find the answers. Their game is fundamentally on the offensive, not defensive: they don't have information, and they have to dig around, push people, and ask tough questions to get information and try to solve the puzzle. Thus a townie's aggression is rooted in a search for answers and has the motivation of advancing discussion. Mafia, on the other hand, are not only not trying to find the answers, they're actively trying to prevent the town from finding the answers. This typically manifests in a desire not to push cases and reads, for two reasons: (1) they already have the answers and so pushing cases and reads exposes them to the risk of slipping up and accidentally displaying their extra knowledge of the game state, and (2) since they're not actively looking for the answers, they have to fake looking for the answers to replicate town-motivated aggression, which requires you to fake an entire thought process, which is an exceedingly difficult task. However, mafia can still benefit from pushing cases and reads! For one, they have to make at least a token effort to do so, lest they be caught by process of elimination. More importantly, if they can manage to make reads that are superficially sensible, and maybe even develop those reads into decent-sounding cases, not only can they look townie, they also distract and deflect the town away from the actual answers. The catch is that these pushes typically fall apart under intense scrutiny, because they still aren't coming from the same mindset. A mobster's aggression is rooted in a desire to distract from teammates and has the motivation of stifling discussion. If we can show, then, that Holyflare's various pushes, reads and cases throughout the game are oriented predominantly toward stifling rather than advancing discussion, we can then convincingly argue that Holyflare's aggression is actually a mafia trait rather than a townie trait, and establish the grounds for lynching him tomorrow. Going chronologically through his filter, here's what I've found. 1. This incident with Holyflare and Vivax. Holyflare makes the argument that Haru's meta read on Wave was somewhat weak, and calls Haru mafiaish for it. Vivax weighs in, saying that Haru's read is simply a matter of disagreement over interpretation, which Vivax doesn't consider a mafia trait necessarily. Holyflare immediately accuses Vivax of "trying to shut down discussion." No charitable reading of Vivax's comment can possibly lead to the conclusion that Vivax was doing anything other than weighing in. Yet Holyflare makes the accusation anyway. What's telling here is that after this brief exchange occurs, Haru does actually return and explain his metaread further. Holyflare proceeds to drop the line of discussion altogether. His next series of posts involves him making a case for Haru being scum, but at no point does he actually use this discussion line to advance his case. If Holyflare were really so interested in not having this line of discussion shut down, would he proceed to shrug the entire thing off once he got an answer? Of course not. Instead he just throws shade on Vivax and then lets it drop. This looks scummy to me because it clearly serves the purpose of shutting down discussion that might lead to Haru not being scumread; town!Holyflare, even if he were confident in Haru being scum, would at least entertain the discussion if only to rebut any arguments from it and to persuade the other players that he has the right idea. SOURCE 2. As the discussion moves on to Haru, Holyflare asks "who comments on game setup/mafia theory repeatedly with no other proper reads," in response to a comment kushm4sta made in a reply to Haru. Holyflare is clearly talking about Haru here, but his comment is inaccurate. kush already gives the proper explanation in the subsequent back-and-forth that you can read in the source link below. Holyflare again lets this drop once kush fires back with good arguments for the opposing point of view. But Holyflare doesn't drop the scumread he has on Haru, either. He just ignores kush's reasonable rebuttal. This isn't townie behavior, because again, townies will either accept the rebuttal if they believe they're mistaken or fight the rebuttal to convince the other person to vote with them. SOURCE 3. Another episode with Vivax, this time over Haru's -1+1 argument. The stifling-discussion angle becomes pretty apparent here. Holyflare again accuses Vivax of "shut[ting] down" his "other post," but as we've already seen, that didn't happen. Holyflare dropped it of his own volition after Haru replied to Holyflare's questions. So that's a lie. Holyflare also misinterprets Vivax's post here: Vivax says that it's his opinion that Holyflare's argument "rode excessively on the - 1 + 1" (emphasis mine). He didn't say that it wasn't a reason to scumread Haru, necessarily, only that Holyflare overutilized it relative to its value as an argument. If you go back and read the source post Holyflare is quoting (appended as SOURCE 2), you'll see this. Vivax says that Holyflare's posts could come from a town perspective and that Haru's arguments had holes, just not holes that were necessarily scummy. Vivax was very charitable and fair in assessing Holyflare; in fact Vivax makes a theme of this almost in his posts, as he goes on to criticize a couple of other posts for not being sufficiently charitable. One thing Vivax definitely cannot be accused of in this game is being unfair to the people he's questioning, and yet Holyflare does exactly that. His representation is incredibly dishonest, and Vivax calls him out for it in their subsequent exchange. SOURCE SOURCE 2 4. The first episode involving me! How about that? You can see my argument for Haru being town in the source post, Holyflare replies to it right away so it's an easy exchange. Holyflare misrepresents me here pretty egregiously - saying that I thought Haru was only being scumread for the -1+1 comment, when if you read my post, I very clearly use it as an example of something Haru said that sounded weird but (imo) came from a townie POV. Holyflare also just insists that Haru's reads were wholly superficial in response to my post without developing it further. I didn't very strongly address this at the time because I didn't want to pre-empt Haru's defense of himself (which I said at the time!), but I still gave cursory responses that, had Holyflare cared enough about them, he could have developed further. It's just another misrepresentation of what I said followed by an unexplained drop in discussion. He moves onto ObiWanShinobi, placing his first vote of the day, incidentally. SOURCE 5. An episode involving Haru. Pretty blatant spin on display here. Holyflare claims that Haru spent 25 minutes finding quotes from another game to defend himself, in order to make the argument that Haru cared more about trying to look good than scumhunt. (SOURCE below.) However if you actually look at the quote he got his figure from, it's obvious why it took Haru so long: he was on mobile and struggling to c/p posts. (SOURCE 2 below.) Haru said this at the time and again, it takes a willfully uncharitable interpretation of Haru's post to come to the conclusion Holyflare took away from it. Again Holyflare pushes another argument for Haru being scum and then (?)doesn't vote for him and lets it drop(?). SOURCE SOURCE 2 6. Interesting side note about the Poofter lynch, Holyflare claims that the "shitty catchup posts" heuristic is a good one for catching mafia with. Poofter obviously flipped town. I'd never heard this heuristic before Holyflare said it this game and I don't really get it. Anybody want to explain this for me? In retrospect it looks pretty shady since, y'know, Poofter flipped town and this heuristic got asserted without any real backing or justification. Wave even calls it out at the time as being BS... and then Holyflare gives some weird excuse about being "too tunneled on Haru to comment." Let me remind you that at the time, Holyflare's vote was on Poofter and he wasn't talking about Haru at all. Wtf? Holyflare eventually responds to arguments against Poofter being scum for his catchup posts by asserting that Poofter must be "shitty scum" instead of simply town. This qualifies to me as an example of the confidence-accuracy discrepancy, because Holyflare is absolutely sure from this that Poofter is scum (which we now know is false). There was no reason to be absolutely sure Poofter was scum. SOURCE ==== I'm only like one-fifth of the way through Holyflare's filter, too. I'm probably just going to post piecemeal because I don't know that I have the time today to finish his filter before deadline. If anybody needs more examples I'll be happy to go through them, but I think you guys get the point well enough. Next is a filter dive on jat and goodkarma. I can already tell you I found jat subtly supporting Holyflare on a few of these. The most memorable is the "ancient philosophers" quote during #3, when Holyflare and Vivax are arguing; JAT adds to the comments about this being a "pointless discussion" at a point that was fairly good for scum (Vivax was pretty clearly handling Holyflare's arguments and it helped Holyflare disengage). There's been a couple of other occasions where he outright sheeped something Holyflare said too. The thing that's holding me back is that I know I was duped for a while, or at least convinced not to listen to my reservations about Holyflare, so maybe JAT was too. On its own it's admittedly not a great scumread and I'll see how I feel about them post-filters. Work in an hour so Adkins for a bit. | ||
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justanothertownie
16308 Posts
Also you are doing exactly what you are accusing HF of doing. Interpreting everything he has done in the most scummy way possible and being overly sure about very minor arguments. I will take a nap and start the filter diving afterwards. | ||
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justanothertownie
16308 Posts
1) Why would we switch to Vivax day1? 2) Why the shenanigans during the lynch yesterday? 3) Why were gk and I marvs strongest townreads besides you? Do you think you can read us better than he can? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
And no I'm not doing that, go through his filter and fact-check me if you don't believe me. I've only done 6 pgs, it's not hard. I didn't look at everything he's done and try to make it look scummy, I picked out the pushes that do look scummy / follow the scum agenda I very carefully laid out before I started looking at anything and explained very clearly and thoroughly why they do. If you think I am, I'm as crystal-clear as I can fucking be right now. Go show me how my examples don't fit the mold that I was careful to craft before rereading Holyflare. You can't, because they do. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 11 2014 21:24 Eden1892 wrote: Sheeping whoever the mafia nightkills is literally putting the game into the mafia's hands unless all the townies are on the same page (at which point we don't even need to sheep). No matter what we try to come up with, solving the consolidation problem is hard and there are no easy solutions; welcome to LYLO, it fucking blows. What definitely won't solve the game is agreeing to sheep beforehand. Everyone should be busting their balls trying to figure this thing out. And in that vein, how are you gonna look at me, goodkarma, tell me I'm going pants-on-head super-stupid, tell me you don't think you can be bothered to solve the game and then just talk about consolidation and needing to work together? This sounds to me like you're saying "You're wrong and I don't feel like explaining why," which is... Understandable I guess if you really are town and mad, but it's also alarming and giving me scarce little reason to reconsider my scum read on you. As an aside... And if I'm wrong I'm about to make an ass out of myself but I'm sure I've already done that if I'm wrong so fuck it: this complaining about the activity level doesn't seem genuine to me. You see gents, goodkarma and I were hydras in Melee Mini, a game of comparable activity level to this one. Goodkarma didn't post much but he had no trouble keeping up with the game and giving me bunches of good reads and advice as I did my thing. I can see his complaint to some degree since the quality of the activity in this game is lower than that one, but I don't think the game is significantly more difficult to read than that one. Maybe this is goodkarma's boiling point... Or he's mafia. If it's the former then I really am sorry but I think it's the latter and I feel pretty good about that read. Crown the townie each night then, whatever. Honestly I have zero faith in anyone left alive right now solving this game. So call it "putting it into mafia's hands" or whatever, but any coin-flippish chance of winning is prolly better than what we have if we just jubjub around and trust everyone to "logic vote" their reads. 100% townie consolidation really isn't that hard if u make a system. If you don't like mine come up with your own because if you don't, nothing you're doing right now will matter at all. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
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justanothertownie
16308 Posts
On August 12 2014 01:23 Eden1892 wrote: I don't see why they couldn't, but I've already acknowledged my read on you isn't superb and that I want to reread your filter before I'm certain about it. Why so disproportionately mad tho? Am I onto you? And no I'm not doing that, go through his filter and fact-check me if you don't believe me. I've only done 6 pgs, it's not hard. I didn't look at everything he's done and try to make it look scummy, I picked out the pushes that do look scummy / follow the scum agenda I very carefully laid out before I started looking at anything and explained very clearly and thoroughly why they do. If you think I am, I'm as crystal-clear as I can fucking be right now. Go show me how my examples don't fit the mold that I was careful to craft before rereading Holyflare. You can't, because they do. I am not mad and I can not be sure concerning HF and gk but if you scumread me you are on the wrong track and it is my responsibility to show you that you are. It is fucking LYLO. I did not filterdive HF yet but I remember most of the things you state in your case and I didn't see a scum agenda when they happened nor do I really see one now that you mention them. Of course it is theoretically possible that HF fooled me completely since he is a very good player but I seriously doubt that someone who I shared the same wavelength with for major parts of the game is scum. | ||
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