EPT
The elections for the German parliament - the Bundestag - will be held on September 22nd this year. I will use this opportunity to give a brief introduction to German politics. As usual, this won't come without a degree of bias, but I'll try to stick to the facts still.
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The Bundestag is the main legislative body in Germany, with the upper house, the Bundesrat, being the second. The Bundestag is elected every four years, and the Bundestag seats are distributed among all parties proportionally to the votes they received (Being Germany, the details are much more complex of course. Have fun reading about it elsewhere). One important factor is that a party needs to receive at least 5% of all national votes to get into the Bundestag in the first place, a threshold that was introduced to avoid the nightmare of dozens of tiny parties and lists blocking German politics which happened in the past.
After election, the Bundestag elect the chancellor, and thus effectively the next administration. Although there is no requirement for it, all major parties will all go into election campaigning with their candidate for the chancellor and most of the chancellor's cabinet and administration already in place.
Because of the 5% requirement, for the longest time German politics has been a three party system, which became four parties in the 80s, and five parties in the late 90s. Because of this today no party can elect the chancellor and back an administration by themselves, and parties form coalitions to get the majority in the Bundestag. Coalitions are a hot topic during campaigning, and often campaigns will be run over potential coalitions.
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The party landscape in Germany can be broadly parted into left and right, or into social-democratic and liberal-conservative, however this distinction is becoming more blurry and less meaningful with every election. The main parties contenting for the Bundestag this year are:
The Union is a combined list of the parties Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Christian Social Union (CSU). Together they make up the main conservative party in Germany. Their chancellor candidate and current chancellor is Angela Merkel.
The difference between the two parties that make up the Union are small, but in general the smaller CSU is more conservative on family and social issues, and less liberal and more protectionist on economic issues.
Historically the main topics for the conservatives were traditional Christian family values, an "ordo-liberal" free market, integration with the West and specifically the USA politically, militarily, and economically. They have also been the main drivers of European integration. They were doubtful about renewable energy and welfare programs. Despite the name, religion does not play a major role in the Union's program, or in German politics in general.
However, after Angela Merkel almost lost the 2005 election on a neo-conservative ticket, she has steered the CDU and the Union decidedly towards the center, and yielded pretty much every classic conservative position. Right now it is difficult to say what makes the Union still a truly conservative party.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is Germany's oldest political party, and the main party on the left side of the political spectrum. Their chancellor candidate is Peer Steinbrueck.
Similarly to what Angela Merkel is doing to the CDU right now, before 2005 former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder took the SPD on a very centrist course, most famously by introducing highly controversial welfare reforms. This caused a major disruption within the SPD, one that is has not been able to recover from since. The SPD is uncomfortably locked in between an ever more centrist CDU and the far left, and has difficulty differentiating itself from either without alienating either the left or rights branches within the party. Their classic topics are worker's rights, social, and welfare programs, but in any of those their position is only marginally different from the Union's today. They also supported the Merkel administration on all foreign policy and European integration questions.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is the second party in the conservative block. Their chancellor candidate is Rainer Brüderle.
The FDP is a smaller party, and typically forms a coalition with the Union to achieve a majority in the Bundestag or in state parliaments. They are currently in a coalition with the Union and thus are part of the Merkel administration.
The classic liberal topics are free market, little state intervention in economic and social issues, and individualism. They used to have some overlap with the SPD, and indeed were part of a joint SPD -FDP administration in the 70s, but since then their only option for a coalition on the national level has been the Union. For a number of reasons (accusations of corruptions, mismanagement, infighting) they had a spectacularly bad start into the current Merkel administration, and for the longest part it was doubtful they would even make the 5% threshold to get back into the Bundestag this year, dropping to a historically low 2% in national polls two years ago. They recently recovered, but it is still not certain if they will make it into the next Bundestag.
The Green Party started as a movement purely devoted to environmental issues in the 80s, but is now a fully matured party. They have nominated two candidates for chancellor, Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Jürgen Trittin.
The Green party is in an unprecedented strong position. From a party dedicated to environmentalism they have become a party somewhat left on welfare questions, but without the socialist tradition of the SPD, very progressive on education, family, and social issues, and is now welcoming free market ideals. The Green party today is neither truly left nor right, and "steals" votes from both camps, although so far they have only ever gone into coalitions with the SPD. They used to be a small party on par with the FDP, but are now about to take over the role as the main party opposing the conservatives from the SPD.
The Left Party is a joint party made of PDS, which superseded the communist party in former East Germany, and the far left branch of the SPD, which had split from the SPD during the Schroeder administration. They have not nominated a chancellor candidate.
The Left enjoyed much success towards the end of the Schroeder administration and during the first Merkel years, but has long struggled with internal disagreement over direction and internal power contests. They are hovering just above the 5% threshold.
The Left's program is classic socialist with additional pacifist ideals and a modern program regarding family and social issues. While they are not a truly communist party and have many overlaps with the SPD and the Green party, they do reject capitalism and the free market in favor of a democratic socialism.
The Pirate Party is a new party that evolved from the European movement for internet freedom which started with the Pirate Party in Sweden. They have not nominated a chancellor candidate.
The Pirate party's main topic is copyright reform and protection of internet freedom. Since the last year they have matured and adopted positions on other topics, which are on many points similar to the Green party. They can be described as somewhat left on social issues, but more liberal on economic ones.
The Pirates enjoyed a spectacular rise and a just as spectacular falldown over the past four years. From 2% turnout at the last Bundestag election they rapidly gained popularity which went up to 13% on national polls two years ago. Due to a very public power struggle within the party they collapse over the past year and fell back below the 5% threshold. It is very unlikely they will make the threshold in September.
The Alternative For Germany (AfD) is an upstart party founded just weeks ago. It is difficult to associate them to either Left or Right yet, as they borrow from both. The sole program which they publicly advertise is rejection of the mainstream European policy. While they don't openly call for an end of the Euro or the EU as the only way, they demand that a return to the old currency, the DeutschMark, has to be considered as a viable option. They also call for an end of all transfer payments from Germany to EU institutions, specifically the ESM. They are currently at 3% in national polls.
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Alright, so those are the players. Now, how will the elections turn out in September?
SPOILER ALERT: The next German chancellor will be Angela Merkel.
Angela Merkel right now is pretty much untouchable in Germany. No matter how catastrophic her administration was run at times, her approval ratings never dropped. In fact, she remained the most popular politician in Germany up until last year, and was only recently overtaken by Gauck, the current German president. She is far ahead of any of her contenders.
Her foreign policy, especially how she handles the European crisis, is very very popular. She understands extremely well to stay away from any definite positions on anything controversial. Her administration went through several scandals, like evidence of special interest groups influence, corruption charges against the former president, who she backed until the end, two ministers who had to resign for being stripped off their PhDs for fraud. Yet none of that did the slightest damage to Merkel.
Peer Steinbrueck, the main contender, would be a good candidate, but in this election he still doesn't stand a chance. He is also a popular politician, known as a sometimes politically incorrect straight shooter. However, he already served under Merkel during the last administration from 2005 to 2009 as minister of finance. Thus he is basically forced to agree with most of her economic decisions since they are largely a continuation of the policy he was part of back then.
In general the main opposition party, the SPD, has a very hard time attacking the administration on anything, mostly because of the already mentioned centrist course Merkel took the CDU on. Examples include abolishing compulsory military service, exiting nuclear power, embracing environmentalism. During the financial crisis the supposedly liberal-conservative administration massively intervened to save companies and jobs with billions of tax payer Euros.
So, apart from the Left and the AfD, none of the other parties disagree fundamentally with the course Merkel is running. Since the major battle, the European crisis, is basically already decided in favor of the current administration, public discourse shifted to arguably less important topics:
Family and gender: Here too, the Merkel administration runs a remarkably progressive policy for a conservative party. However, she ceded one point to the right wing of her own party: A publicly funded payment for parents who choose to stay at home and care for their children, aptly ridiculed by the opposition as the "kitchen premium". This policy and other events sparked a new discussion about gender equality in Germany recently.
LGTB rights: The German supreme court has basically announced they will rule a number of laws and regulations unconstitutional since they discriminate against homosexuals. The resulting discussion has started yet another fundamental change in the conservative block, since the vast majority of Germans support gay rights and gay marriage (which sadly still doesn't exist in Germany), but especially the CSU traditionally opposed liberalization. After the initiative from the court, Merkel gave an outlook that her position might change in this regard, without being specific though.
Minimum wage: It is kind of funny, but for years this has been one of the hottest topics in Germany. The reason being that heavily unionized, social and welfare happy Germany does not have a minimum wage. Naturally this is the home ground of the SPD, PDS, and to a lesser degree the Greens, who heavily campaign for the introduction of a nation wide minimum wage.
Taxes: In short, the conservatives promise to not raise taxes, the Left and the Greens promise to raise taxes (for the wealthy). It should be said that this isn't nearly as important a topic as it is elsewhere, as Germans are generally quite ok with paying taxes. Prime example is that the voters of the Green party (who call for higher taxes) happen to be the most wealthy compared to the voters of other parties.
I hope this topic wasn't too dry (in case it was, here is a picture of Claudia Schiffer to compensate), but it seemed a better point in time than any to give an introduction to the German political landscape. What I want you to take away:
- Under Schroeder, the SPD moved decidedly towards the right
- Under Merkel, the Union moved decidedly towards the left
- As a result the SPD is crushed between the far left and the center
- As a result the Green party gained strength, drawing from both camps
- The next German chancellor will be Angela Merkel
- The interesting question in September will be who she will form a coalition with
Obviously this article is not exhaustive. If you have further questions I'd be happy to address them in the comments.
Results
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Source: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/merkel-wins-third-term-in-general-election-a-923755.html
Updates:
2013-08-27: The right-extremist NPD
2013-09-12: Polls two weeks before the election
2013-10-14: Coalition talks
2013-12-17: New (old) chancellor, new government
Random bits of knowledge about Germany
Ep9: Cost of living
Ep8: Autobahn
Ep7: Barbecue
Ep6: Gun ownership
Ep5: Lines
Ep4: Bild and Fear
Ep3: Stereotypes
Ep2: Sauna
Ep1: Small Talk
, although our food is cheap as fuck anyways imo) requires some form of financial stability and comes mostly from the more educated (and with this comes wealth more often than not) class.
