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Zurich15365 Posts
On May 04 2013 00:48 nunez wrote:
cheers zatic, interesting and enjoyable read. kitchen premium was pretty surprising.
hoping for more german demand of norwegian hydro electric competence, go green party.
can you go a bit further into why they relatively more wealthy?
also can you talk about how the pirate party and those who vote for it are perceived by msm, other parties and general public?
Unfortunately Germany is very limited in terms of hydro energy, so I don't foresee much initiative in that area.
There isn't really a single good explanation why the Green party voters turned out to be among the wealthier in the country. In fact when that statistic was published some 10 years ago it came as a big surprise. I can try a few angles to explain this:
* Something that has been quoted often is that the wealthy are the only ones who can afford a truly environmentally friendly life style. I find this explanation very insufficient since a) people can support change even if they couldn't live by it right now b) today ecology is a rather small part of the Greens program, with education, integration, social issues taking more prominent roles
* The simplest explanation for me is that the generation that supported the Green movement in the 80s are just naturally among the wealthiest today. The party was mostly supported by students in the 80s and a well educated person from then would just be expected to be high earner 30 years later.
* Also the Green party understands very well to appeal to a more conservative audience who are looking for more progressive alternatives left of the CDU, but are put off by the socialist tradition of the SPD. Because of that the Green party curiously has been called the 2nd conservative party in Germany. They have indeed taken over the administration from the CDU in Baden-Wurttemberg, the richest area in Germany and a solid conservative stronghold for the past 60 years.
* Of course, the Green party also profited from the nuclear debate following Fukushima. It should be said however that they very in a strong position before and are still in that strong position two years after, so that is not a deciding factor.
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Hey, I'm bumping this for the following reason: The election will be in about a month, so a thread about it in the general forum would be appropriate, as I believe it will attract some global interest. And this blog would serve as a great opening post, so maybe, with zatic's approval of course, why not move this to the general forum, or copy&paste the op for a new thread there? Any opinions?
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Zurich15365 Posts
I was thinking about bumping this too, yeah.
I'll move it over to General until the election is over.
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On August 17 2013 15:09 zatic wrote:
I was thinking about bumping this too, yeah.
I'll move it over to General until the election is over.
Isn't that already the case?
I mean sure we still have to count the votes but the only real question is: is the FDP going to get 5%?
But the name of the Chancellor will be: Merkel
And only in case of some miracle there will be something other than a grand coalition.
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Just found this great Thread, was thinking about making one myself but my knowledge is not great enough, thanks for making this ;D
Reading about The Left Party in english sounds like they are bad evil people ... makes your post seem Biased wich you said it would be :D
Maybe I watch too much American TV ... socialist = evil...
Damn... xD not sure what to vote
Thinking about the left party since in the speeches of Gregor Gysi (isnt he chancellor candidate for the Left btw? maybe you need to update that in the OP) he got my attention, Minimum Wage (wich about 80% of European Countries have, we dont), also economic decisions (why do the little people pay for the banks? why not the ones that profited from the crisis?).
I also think the Pirate Party has some strong points, we urgently need a copyright reform and I guess thanks to the NSA scandal they will get more votes I hope so, I need to believe that the NSA-Scandal will be punished by the public somehow, especially in Germany since ppl say that we Germans are more protective of our privacy than others.
On May 03 2013 23:58 zatic wrote:
LGTB rights: The German supreme court has basically announced they will rule a number of laws and regulations unconstitutional since they discriminate against homosexuals. The resulting discussion has started yet another fundamental change in the conservative block, since the vast majority of Germans support gay rights and gay marriage (which sadly still doesn't exist in Germany), but especially the CSU traditionally opposed liberalization. After the initiative from the court, Merkel gave an outlook that her position might change in this regard, without being specific though.
Unconstitutional? was that really the reason? Sry but im sometimes a stickler for details but the thing is: Homosexuals are not protected by the Constitution, what I mean by that is Art 3, GG (3). Not going to quote but it lists groups that are not to be discriminated against, Homosexuals are NOT in there... its possible to change that, you need 2/3 of the Votes in the Bundestag to change something in the Constitution, they tried that but the Christian Democratic Union has about 1/3 of the votes... so they can just say no singlehandedly...
I wonder why Merkel is so popular... she didnt actually do something I feel, except turn around a lot ... Nuclear Power ... changed her opinion completely after Fukushima etc etc... but the most embarrassing thing that I remember (sry non-german speakers) didnt even change ppls minds... argh...
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On August 18 2013 04:03 Daumen wrote:
I wonder why Merkel is so popular... she didnt actually do something I feel, except turn around a lot ...
thats exactly the key to her success. in a legislative period in which every single party and countless politicians from every party have fucked up tremendously, she has done nothing and thus gave people the impression that she is the only major politician in germany who hasnt done something wrong.
compare that also to barney stinson's pricipal of "doing nothing" that he talks about in the HIMYM episode with the video job application. 
her turnarounds have also contributed to her popularity. she has basically picked up the mainstream opinion of the german people on every issue as soon as this opinion changed.
for example, the german opinion on nuclear energy was pretty much an equal divide prior to fukushima. after fukushima, it was apparent that a majority of germans now oppose nuclear energy. once merkel realized this changing trend, she adopted it.
this general campaign strategy of hers is called "asymmetric demobilization" and has already been very successful in her 2009 campaign. she avoids positioning herself on almost any controversial topic and thus robs the political opposition of any chances to attack her and to mobilize their own voters. because she has done nothing fundamentally wrong and does not stand for anything that enfuriates the traditional voters of opposing political parties, the opposition cannot gain momentum for their campaign. to sum it up, she is not governing, she is administrating the status quo. that this strategy is so successful is quite a testimony to how pathetic, stupid and lazy the majority of germans are when it comes to politics.
I personally will vote for either the pirate party or the AfD.
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Doing nothing is the best a politician can do nowadays especially in Germany where people aren't THAT brainwashed.
Our financial stystem is dying right in front of our eyes, our economy is only artificial kept alive on the cost of others which starts to backfire in a huge way now and it probably will get only worse.
Everyone knows that our education system is getting worse and worse.
You have to fight for Europe as a german politician if you want to be taken serious but the majority of people think that europe just costs them money so they are against it.
Our politicians are trapped in a broke financial and economical system, our foreign policy is captured by our US american friends and politicians like merkel or seehofer openly say that they are not the ones in charge. Business magnates have the power so at least merkel doesn't talk stupid what she will do because she can't do anything anyway.
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The typical CDU/CSU voter statistically is
-catholic
-female
-over 70
-lives in a town less then 10.000 people
-has only visited the primary scool
-still works (next is pensioner)
Only 7% in the group of 18-24 are voting for CDU/CSU. 10% in the group of 25-34.
source:Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
http://www.heute.de/ZDF/zdfportal/cacheable/24432394/1/4672/e4e31d
So as a side note you can say our government does get voted by old dumb people.
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Are the FDP still polling terribly in Germany? 
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it doesnt matter how they poll, lots of CDU voters will vote FDP to try prevent CDU-SPD or worse CDU-green coalition.
Also, most voter polls have barely 1000 people in them, which might meet some made up rule about polls, but is still terribly inaccurate. Source:last elections.
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As long as the greens do not get any more votes it will all be fine.
Sad to say that there is like zero hope of stuff getting better, but considering how indecisive and full of hesitation our political landscape is, it wont change for the worse as well.
Only the greens really drive me crazy, advertising themselves as "independent" and " different" when they really arent any better. They claim to let their foundation (is that the right word for the majority of members? ^^) decide what is there to do and who should carry their flag, yet at the same time they bypass it.
This party is just one huge joke, the true rich-people-party is green in our country. Nothin alternative or special about them.
"Look at me, I am voting green, I am so pro-nature and all you who dare to vote for anything else, you are some bad bad folks!"
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On August 18 2013 05:05 Nachtwind wrote:The typical CDU/CSU voter statistically is -catholic -female -over 70 -lives in a town less then 10.000 people -has only visited the primary scool -still works (next is pensioner) Only 7% in the group of 18-24 are voting for CDU/CSU. 10% in the group of 25-34. source:Forschungsgruppe Wahlen http://www.heute.de/ZDF/zdfportal/cacheable/24432394/1/4672/e4e31dSo as a side note you can say our government does get voted by old dumb people.
Aren't those the same old dumb people that when they weren't old (and presumably were less dumb considering their accomplishments) turned your country from literally a ruined bombed-out wasteland to probably the strongest (not biggest, but strongest) economic power in the world? Just saying the casual arrogance of youth about the stupidity of the old is usually wrong.
Also from your link "statistically" it's a coin-flip as to whether the average CDU/CSU voter is male or female (48%-52%). 38% of CDU/SU voters are in between the age of 35 and 59. Only 24% are over 70.
I'm not sure if I'm translating correctly because I'm not really translating I'm just trying to make a semi-educated at best guess but according to the chart 65% of CDU/CSU voters have gone past primary school?
And 45% of CDU/CSU voters are Catholic, that's a large percentage but again it's just a coin-flip.
I mean wow really both you and that link are trying to paint a picture with statistics that doesn't really match reality. The average CDU/CSU voter is not over 70 (76% are under 70), it's a coin-flip as to male/female, etc.
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On August 18 2013 05:05 Nachtwind wrote:The typical CDU/CSU voter statistically is -catholic -female -over 70 -lives in a town less then 10.000 people -has only visited the primary scool -still works (next is pensioner) Only 7% in the group of 18-24 are voting for CDU/CSU. 10% in the group of 25-34. source:Forschungsgruppe Wahlen http://www.heute.de/ZDF/zdfportal/cacheable/24432394/1/4672/e4e31dSo as a side note you can say our government does get voted by old dumb people.
Sigh. Failing to understand painfully simple statistics, you are not even remotely close to be in a position to call other people dumb. Not "Only 7% in the group of 18-24 are voting for CDU/CSU. 10% in the group of 25-34.", rather 7% of CDU voters are between 18 and 24 and 10% are between 25 and 34.
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On August 18 2013 05:05 Nachtwind wrote:The typical CDU/CSU voter statistically is -catholic -female -over 70 -lives in a town less then 10.000 people -has only visited the primary scool -still works (next is pensioner) Only 7% in the group of 18-24 are voting for CDU/CSU. 10% in the group of 25-34. source:Forschungsgruppe Wahlen http://www.heute.de/ZDF/zdfportal/cacheable/24432394/1/4672/e4e31dSo as a side note you can say our government does get voted by old dumb people.
Good thing is: the problem will be resolved naturally in 20 years (unless BILD-brainwashing starts working for younger generations until then too).
Bad thing is: they (CDU/FDP) potentially mess up a whole lot until then (most likely by doing nothing, Merkel-style).
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On August 18 2013 05:09 Dazed_Spy wrote:Are the FDP still polling terribly in Germany?
The FDP pulling bad results is just about the best thing that could happen, they have a terrible agenda regarding pretty much every important subject. If you're interested in recent survey results here's a pretty comprehensive list http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
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On August 18 2013 05:35 DeepElemBlues wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2013 05:05 Nachtwind wrote:The typical CDU/CSU voter statistically is -catholic -female -over 70 -lives in a town less then 10.000 people -has only visited the primary scool -still works (next is pensioner) Only 7% in the group of 18-24 are voting for CDU/CSU. 10% in the group of 25-34. source:Forschungsgruppe Wahlen http://www.heute.de/ZDF/zdfportal/cacheable/24432394/1/4672/e4e31dSo as a side note you can say our government does get voted by old dumb people. Aren't those the same old dumb people that when they weren't old (and presumably were less dumb considering their accomplishments) turned your country from literally a ruined bombed-out wasteland to probably the strongest (not biggest, but strongest) economic power in the world? Just saying the casual arrogance of youth about the stupidity of the old is usually wrong. Also from your link "statistically" it's a coin-flip as to whether the average CDU/CSU voter is male or female (48%-52%). 38% of CDU/SU voters are in between the age of 35 and 59. Only 24% are over 70. I'm not sure if I'm translating correctly because I'm not really translating I'm just trying to make a semi-educated at best guess but according to the chart 65% of CDU/CSU voters have gone past primary school? And 45% of CDU/CSU voters are Catholic, that's a large percentage but again it's just a coin-flip. I mean wow really both you and that link are trying to paint a picture with statistics that doesn't really match reality. The average CDU/CSU voter is not over 70 (76% are under 70), it's a coin-flip as to male/female, etc.
another shocking fact: Old people tend to show up for votes more often. The category of 21-25 year olds had the lowest turnout rates among the age groupes in 2009 (in Germany) with it being 59% (18-24 wasn't included, screw you google!). The group of 60-70 year olds for example had the highest turnout rates with it being 80%.
You'll have a hard time finding a party that doesn't have a good amount of 50-60 and 60-70 year olds voting for them just based on that, unless you go for something "weird" like the pirate party. No idea if that's actually the case but I guess it might be.
So not exactly suprising in general. If anything you could use that data and compare it with other parties.
THAT would be something interesting but the way it's presented it's completly and utterly useless. So if there's something like that @whoever posted it you should post a link to that rather than this stand-alone whatever it is supposed to be.
No idea if the 7% is actually above average or below, though I'd guess it probably is below.
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I will probably determine the party I vote for by which party I like most, but by which party I hate less, so I'll probably go with the Pirates, since we haven't anything of them on the national level yet. :/
I don't understand why all parties in Germany must have a position in everything. I mean, even though I am pro-environment, all the position of the green party outside the environmental politics makes them unvotable for me...
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On May 04 2013 11:12 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 08:33 Paljas wrote:On May 04 2013 08:14 jubil wrote:
I studied politics in university, though mostly international relations and American politics, so learning about Germany is very interesting. I was a little surprised to hear that the successor party to the East German Communist party is still alive and kicking, but of course that was the main party for a significant period of time for a significant part of the country.
One thing I'd be interested to know is how these parties play across a more regional level. In the US, for example, the Democrats and Republicans have offices and branches in every state and nearly every county, it's only in the most extreme local towns that the minority party doesn't bother contesting an election. I'd imagine that with 5 major parties there might be more regional variance in Germany. Are particular parties associated with dominance in particular regions? Absolutly, yes. Bavaria for example is dominated by the CSU, the party "Die Linke" is way more succssesfull in east germany and the saarland then in the rest of they country. Looking at smaller regions, there are even bigger differences between the single regions. To add to this, winning a regional seat is one way minor parties in NZ (and by extension, Germany) can get into parliament without meeting the 5% threshold. Some parties actually rely on the popularity of one of their members to have representation in parliament. If a party gets, say, 4.5% of the vote - which normally means they do not make it into parliament - but one of their members wins an electorate then suddenly that 4.5% matters and a proportional amount of extra people from that party make it into parliament for the next term.
This is false. A party needs to win at least three 'direct seats', to be represented in parliament with a group corresponding to their result in the general election. If only one or two people get a majority in their precinct, only they can enter parliament. Even this clause is controversial - rightfully so imho - as it allows regional splinter groups to possibly be represented while parties with a higher percentage of the general vote might not be.
+ Show Spoiler +Die Grundmandatsklausel im Bundestagswahlrecht
Auszug aus dem Bundeswahlgesetz (§ 6 Abs. 6 BWahlG)
Bei Verteilung der Sitze auf die Landeslisten werden nur Parteien berücksichtigt, die mindestens 5 vom Hundert der im Wahlgebiet abgegebenen gültigen Zweitstimmen erhalten oder in mindestens drei Wahlkreisen einen Sitz errungen haben.
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On August 18 2013 05:09 Dazed_Spy wrote:Are the FDP still polling terribly in Germany?
the FDP lost a lot of credibility while governing, for example they reduced taxes for Hotels due to heavy lobbying from Hoteliers and other quarrels within the cabinet. Then there was a (mild) sexual scandal about their "chancellor" candidate, because he "sexual assaulted" a (female) reporter with "she would fill out a Dirndl rather well". (this happened late at night while he was drinking wine at a hotel bar during a big party meeting). this resulted in a debate about sexism, maybe you heard about #aufschrei.
Brüderle then broke several bones when he slipped and has been absent from campaigning. This oddly lead to an increase in polls and the FDP has since gotten an upswing in polls, hovering quite stable over the important 5% mark. Some political commentators explain this with the tax plans of the SPD / Greens who want to raise taxes. Since raise in taxes would also happen with a "big coalition" of SPD/CDU people also see the necessity to vote for FDP so a CDU/FDP gvmt won't raise taxes.
One problem of the "liberal" party is, imo, that they are split between the "civil rights liberal" and the "economics liberals". The civil rights wing, most notably represented (nowadays) by justice minister Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger has been very small for a longer period of times.
the problem the FDP is facing is the economic side. They have a hard time communicating why a "free market" is a good thing since a lot of people blame the unregulated banking sector for the ongoing economic crisis.
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EPT
