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I made a (beta) play money Broodwar prediction market, https://broodwar.market
You can submit a question like "Will Effort win his ASL22 ro16 group?", the system adds clear terms, users vote for which questions should become markets, and anyone with an account can bid yes/no at whatever odds they choose.
Markets are resolved from common sources, e.g. Tastosis or Starcast EN youtube streams for the ASL. This is partly automatic, though with some human intervention (i.e. me). I don't use liquipedia (or any other wikis) as sources that can resolve markets, at their request. Markets close just before the game happens, but do not resolve until that stream has aired - I don't want spoilers on the site.
The idea of a Prediction Market is that you can reveal information that isn't otherwise easy to calculate (if it's possible at all). "Will Colorless Fate be in next season's ladder pool?" or "Will ASL23 have the same qualifier format as ASL22?"
There are sportsbook-like markets like that Effort one, but you could also have "Will Shinee turn up to his ro16 games?" or "How many Protoss will advance to the knockout games?". I'd like to expand this quite a bit in the future, e.g. "Will a foreigner reach the semifinals of any ASL23 qualifier bracket?" or "Will a non-Protoss win BSL 23?". In the longer term, perhaps some ladder markets, or replay markets ("How many players will leave Artosis' games without saying GG in his next stream?")
This is only for Broodwar, and I won't make a real money version of this site. There're no prizes except for more play money. I don't sell any data, run any adverts, have any tracking, or make money from this site.
It's very much a beta at the moment. There's a lack of polish, there are old QA bids, it's too ASL focussed, and it doesn't know any non-Korean players except Dewalt. It's still a bit ugly, I'm not a designer. Until the time of clicking post here, all bids on the site are from me.
It rejects too many markets, but when I see failures that I think should have succeeded I'll update the system to allow them to passs. It uses too much technical and obscure language for reasons that are quite hard to fix, so question submission isn't user-friendly enough right now.
It's ~90% a backend project - for me, this is mostly a technology demonstrator - but the next big thing I want to add are (auto-moderated) comments on markets, questions, and resolutions.
I hope some of you find it interesting/useful.
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wait, its fake money? this won't work
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On September 12 2026 00:45 Kraekkling wrote:
wait, its fake money? this won't work
Yep, play money. I don't think it's possible to do with real money for Broodwar, at least not legally.
The potential market isn't that large, and it's spread all over the world. The largest possible market doesn't allow gambling (Korea). You'd need to get a zillion licenses and I doubt there's any chance of earning as much as that costs.
For professional reasons (I work in gambling), I am not too interested in doing a crypto version.
Plausibly, one could make a prediction market that covered all of esports. I think that might work, but it's tough to acquire enough players to make it properly liquid. It's something I might do though, but starting here, with Broodwar.
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hmm this is a cool project though, its unfortunate you don't want to do a crypto version
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yeah the moment you do a money or crypto version, i'm in
can't find any books with bw on it lately
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On September 12 2026 14:01 razorsuKe wrote:
yeah the moment you do a money or crypto version, i'm in
can't find any books with bw on it lately
Yeh, I imagine they have the same problem - that the potential market is spread thinly over the whole world.
Then if someone runs a BW market, nobody knows it exists because there are millions of potential places. That's why I want to make one specifically for BW, but I understand that play money stakes don't appeal to everyone.
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i'm thinking about the matchfixing scandals
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Netherlands5966 Posts
At first glance this kinda feels like liquibet 2.0
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On September 12 2026 18:11 quaristice wrote:
i'm thinking about the matchfixing scandals
Doesn't seem likely for play money.
But yeh, this is a problem in general for every sport and has been ever since sportsbooks have existed. A prediction market has a few novel kinds of problems, but I don't think it's going to matter in this situation.
The way you'd handle it for real money is to watch for bets far out of the normal range, and report them to the governing body for that sport. We had this here in Estonia this week in fact. It's another good reason why doing real money on Broodwar could be a problem, though at least with a market you need someone willing to accept the other side for a bid.
It's also potentially a problem with crypto sportsbooks, at least the ones that let you withdraw instantly. Sites need time to investigate (and this is why most sites accept instant deposits, but require time before withdrawals).
On September 12 2026 18:15 Peeano wrote:
At first glance this kinda feels like liquibet 2.0
To be honest, I didn't know liquibet existed, or if I did, I forgot - I've made half a dozen posts here in the past 20 years. It's not my intention to replace it or really to compete with it. A prediction market can have a lot of market types than liquibet currently has though, and I've built it to require as little admin intervention as possible, so it's probably easier to run too. Let's see.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/DYqh0ND.png)
