Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VIII - Page 15
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
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Gossemerr
United States195 Posts
##Unvote: Janaan ##Vote: Eleanthas | ||
Janaan
United States381 Posts
##Unvote: Koritora ##Vote: Eleanthas | ||
phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
I just want to make one thing clear: The reason I wrote about a connection between Eleanthas and gossemerr was because I wanted to get gossemerr to talk more. Looks like that worked. Gossemerr could be scum, but I feel way to unsure about that to actually vote for him. Nevertheless, it's nice to see that several people jumped on the case and it made the whole town more active. Good thing to happen. Nova_Terra: No offense, but I think you are reading to much into the connection between Gossemerr, Eleanthas and inferno. That case won't hold with those arguments, I'm afraid. Gossemerr: On March 16 2012 06:18 Gossemerr wrote: @Phagga: I never said I did any more analysis / posting than some of you.. I was just pointing out what I thought. The point is: you can't criticize someone for not doing stuff when you don't do that stuff as well. Uh, that sounds stupid. Let me try it like this: If you go and criticize me (or anyone) for lack of analysis/content, then everyone will expect that you have delivered the amount of analysis/content that you say others lack. That's why I brought it up. I still think it would be nice to get some more analysis from you, but at least it seems you start to step your game. As for the lynch targets: looks like the InfernOokami7 lynch is not happening. However, I'm ok with an Eleanthas lynch. He is still not producing anything relevant and lurking pretty hard. Let's just hope that the replacements for our other lurkers will be more active. ##Unvote: InfernOokami7 ##Vote: Eleanthas | ||
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Two hours to go till deadline. Please remember to vote correctly. | ||
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Night 2 Sometimes life decides to jump the shark and the only way to survive is laugh at death. Eleanthas felt his mind slipping. Aliens in a bunker, it was something out of the ancient films. No-way it could be true, but the deaths kept happening. The Captain, Probulous now the crew, someone, or something was shedding blood. I won't be next, no, I'll prove to the men who I am. Slowly and with deliberate gravitas Eleanthas rose from his darkened corner and stepped forward into the circle of men. "I am Eleanthas, and I have fought with you for 15 years. I have seen my brothers die at the hands of these invaders. I have seen my brethren slay each other over false suspicions. I will see it no more. I am, who I am and you will not kill me today." A shadowy figure stepped towards him "Only a shapeshifter would pull this stunt. Real men know they are men and don't have to convince themselves. KILL HIM!" Pleading for sanity Eleanthas dropped to his knees. "Don't you see, I am innocent. How can I prove my innocence to you?" "Die." A rusted blade swings down from the shadows. Viscous Green blood sprays the walls as Eleanthas' head rolls down the passage. Eleanthas the Vanilla Townie has been decapitated It is now night 2! Please send all night actions to both myself and GMarshal. The deadline is 12:00 KST. | ||
Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
That being said, i wish ele had come and defended himself in a longer post than what he attempted to do. Hosts, is anyone being modkilled? | ||
Gossemerr
United States195 Posts
I am still holding onto my Nova, Janaan, Phagga suspicions. Phagga in particular basically just attacks me after my post comes out. On March 15 2012 19:20 phagga wrote: I'm a "he", just for the record. 1 Right, and you analyzed everyone in the game. Oh wait, you did not, the above paragraph is the only analysis you have done so far. So, what exactly is wrong with me analyzing "only" 6 of 10 people? 2 I never said he was town. I stated that there is 1-2 scum in the group of FirmTofu voters, which means there is also 1-2 scum in the group of non-FirmTofu voters. And I can't believe you bring this up again after Nova_Terra and I both explained this very point to Mementoss. 3 If noone is talking about the lurkers, they will be forgotten and get by with it. It has happened in other games, it can happen here. 4 And you said so much more, right? Let's see... You - call cosine suspicious with a daring argument - have disagreed that Eleanthas looks scummy (without giving a reason) - in the same post agreed that FirmTofu looks scummy, reasoning that you wanted to make the same case as Mementoss (but never presented one) - call out Janaan for having a "weird timing" - try to make up a connection between me, Janaan and Nova_Terra And you think you have contributed more than Janaan? I mean, he is lacking content too, but you are definitely the wrong one to call him out on that. You are desperately looking for arguments to connect the three of us when there is nothing to connect the three of us. I could, with the very arguments you used, claim that you and Eleanthas have a secret connection. Actually, that would even make sense, because you are both halflurking and barely contributing. What do you say about that? Too me this is really not a defence, just attacks me for my lack of analysis. I never said I was doing more, I never said I was not a hypocrite. But the fact that I didn't really contribute a ton of analysis untill that post does not invalidate my post. Also reading back through the thread in sequence just now I found these two quotes by Phagga to be concerning: On March 14 2012 18:47 phagga wrote: We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia. There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win. On March 15 2012 02:35 phagga wrote: Finding a mafia may lead to the rest of mafia, agreed. But finding out why the mafia did a specific night kill is a waste of time. There are so many ways for mafia to make us believe one thing while they do something completely other that it is not worth speculating about why they killed a specific player or left another one alive. Also, clever mafia can mess with our heads by killing a townie that was tunneling another townie, giving town the impression that the tunneled townie was actually scum. This leads directly to a mislynch. So, no, speculating about the motives of night kills leads to WIFOM and mislynches. Avoid it. How in the world could understanding how the mafia are thinking be bad for us town? If we can accurately figure out why the mafia killed whom they did we can link it back to the individuals involved. Its a integral part of the analysis. If we just ignored all of the night phases and focused only on the outcomes of lynches that would be terrible. In fact that would be what the scum would want from us - to effectively lose half of the game's information. To not worry about their motives and to fight about the mis-lynches. I agree that the staight up kills can be misleading, but thats where the ANALYSIS comes in. Anyways, I still think there needs to be more discussion on Janaan, Phagga, and Nova - especially Phagga and Janaan. Also, I guess my suspicion that Ele wasn't any more scummy than others was right.. | ||
phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
About Nova_Terra and me: Yes, I do agree with some stuff Nova_Terra wrote, but not with all. No, I do not trust him. I don't trust anyone in this game so far. Yes, we can find connections between people and link mafias together, but for that to work we first need to find mafia, so this should be our top priority. And no, I will not blindly lynch someone only because he agreed at several points with scum. These possible links we have in the thread so far are rather weak. It is possible they exist, but it is also very possible they don't. I also never intended to push a lynch on Gossemerr today, I really wanted to get rid of a lurker (which we did with Eleanthas, although he was not one of the heavy ones). I feel Nova_Terra is an extremely eager Town who jumps to conclusion a little bit too fast. I currently doubt that he is scum, solely because I think scum would not behave that offensively. On the other side, it could be on purpose, and you see I'm going all WIFOM now, so I'll drop. I don't trust him, but some things he said made sense for me. Gossemerr: On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote: Okay two peeps did not vote - either going to be replaced or killed. I'm guessing that if they were scum they would be participating, well at least vote. I have to say that I'm pretty confident that both are not mafia - so that means probably 2 people whom are actually contributing to the discussion are indeed mafia. Kinda adding to that, so far we have mislynched two town that were lurkers. While it is not that big of deal since they didn't help much, our numbers are dropping fast. This is wrong. Two people stopped playing completely, either because they lost interest or something in real life keeps them busy. This does NOT tell us anything about their alignement. They could be mafia, vanilla townies or blues, who knows. (Or are you seriously implying that after (for example) someone from my family had a heavy accident, I would be more inclined to play on in this game if I was mafia than if I was town? In such a situation, this game here is irrelevant, no matter what my alignement is). On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote: Too me this is really not a defence, just attacks me for my lack of analysis. I never said I was doing more, I never said I was not a hypocrite. But the fact that I didn't really contribute a ton of analysis untill that post does not invalidate my post. you are in a game where people try to find out the motives of others by reading, analyzing and judging their posts. What do you think is going to happen when you are a hypocrite in such a game? Yes, you get a scummy label really fast. Also, if you are not contributing, people will assume you try to hide something, which agains means you get a scummy label. On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote: How in the world could understanding how the mafia are thinking be bad for us town? If we can accurately figure out why the mafia killed whom they did we can link it back to the individuals involved. Its a integral part of the analysis. If we just ignored all of the night phases and focused only on the outcomes of lynches that would be terrible. In fact that would be what the scum would want from us - to effectively lose half of the game's information. To not worry about their motives and to fight about the mis-lynches. I agree that the staight up kills can be misleading, but thats where the ANALYSIS comes in. I am going to do this just once, and I hope we can burry this afterwards. So what are the possible reasons sbrubbles was killed? - Nova_Terra is scum, he felt the heat and mafia decided to get rid of sbrubbles - Nova_Terra is town, mafia wants to mess with us and decided to get rid of one of Nova_Terras attackers, sbrubbles - Sbrubbles was half-lurking, and since mafia knows he is town, they fear he might be a blue. - Or it was something completely different that I can not think up right now. So we have now 3 options with completely different motivations. I have my opinions about this too, and I think it was the third option (because scum normally tries to kill of blues as fast as possible). But we can not know for sure. If we want to know more, we lynch Nova_Terra next, but if he is town, that was a blatant mislynch and puts us in a far worse position. And even then, we still will not know if they killed bubbles because he was blue or because they wanted to mess with us. And I haven't even started what it means if Nova_Terra would get killed tonight by mafia. Also, how are you gonna analyze the motives of scum if you do not even know who they are? You do not know for sure who is scum, so you can only try to analyze posts from people you think are scum, and if they are not, you'll just produce bad results. Perhaps if we lynched a scum, you can go back through is filter and look for hints for the nightkills, but until then, it's all WIFOM. This is so much WIFOM that it is not worth wasting time on it. And as you are already quite busy (as you wrote earlier), it would be better if you concentrated on finding scum through analysis of posts. On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote: Also, I guess my suspicion that Ele wasn't any more scummy than others was right.. But you voted him anyway, so what? | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
Gosse: Your last post concerns me; we can never afford to completely rule out players as you suggest. I don't think that lurking to the point of being modkilled indicates either scum or town. Case in point: one of the scum players in NMM I got modkilled for inactivity, but we had Elea, who hadn't posted in 27 hours before coming in to vote for you, flip town. Lurking as hard as these two are probably doesn't indicate anything about their alignment. phagga: That's the second time Gosse's voted a bandwagon that he doesn't really believe in. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On March 16 2012 15:21 Nova_Terra wrote: Looking back on my posting fom yesterday, there is something to be said for not posting when you're tired. That being said, i wish ele had come and defended himself in a longer post than what he attempted to do. Hosts, is anyone being modkilled? People who did not vote will be replaced, if no replacement is found before the end of the next cycle they will be modkilled | ||
Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
I hope i can come up with something useful. | ||
Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
On March 17 2012 00:51 Nova_Terra wrote: Lol, wait, so if both of the lurkers that might be modkilled are town and they end up modkilled, we lose right? >_> Still 2 people left on the replacement list so hopefully they're up for it. Lurkers ruining the game/ killing the town QQ. | ||
Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
Better hope we get those replacements. | ||
phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
On March 17 2012 00:51 Nova_Terra wrote: Lol, wait, so if both of the lurkers that might be modkilled are town and they end up modkilled, we lose right? We are at 6-3. If both were town, we're at 4-3 before the nightkill. Now it depends on the blue roles. If there is a medic or a Veteran (preventing a nightkill) or a vigilante (kill a scum), then the game will probably go on as long as we are able to stay one person ahead. | ||
Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
I hope we have a vigi who identified a scum. would be so helpful for info at this point in time. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
Nova_Terra On March 11 2012 17:36 Nova_Terra wrote: Hey, Sorry, I was asleep for the last 8 hours and just woke up I agree with always pushing a lynch as long as there is aome evidence that shows that the person is likely to be scum. for instance lurkers, bad defenders, etc. i also agree with a no lynch as long as there is overwhelming evidence that shows lynch candidates as being townies. I'll just throw the EBWOP in here so it makes more sense as I go. On March 11 2012 17:44 Nova_Terra wrote: EBWOP: FirmTofu, i think the one problem with lynching lurkers is that we dont really know if they are a lurker. my point is, that when people see your last message, they are going to post, right? especially if they are scum who are lurking. if a townie just doesnt show up (so isnt lurking) i find him more likely to be killed by your list than any mafia. That being said, I think we should continue to suspect all people on that list. I guess that even includes myself. i just have a feeling that ~2 scum could be in there and will step up when their buddies tell them, "You gotta post, man!" Read this as "Lynching lurkers is a good idea except when it's not, and if they're acting like lurkers they might not actually be lurkers, so if they didn't show up and post they're not actually lurking". That's, like, the definition of lurking. NT goes on to just say "let's suspect everyone on that list just in case". We're 6 hours into the game at this point, there isn't nearly enough posting to justify a pure town read on ANYONE...of course we should be suspecting everyone this early on. This is useless filler. Okay, let's talk about this FOS mess on day 1. On March 12 2012 01:57 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, it was a funny coincedence that he posted that right before i woke up. i also pointed out the post before how the suspicion should also be on me. The thing is though, his post was extremely messed up and seemed very scummy. i definitely think it is worth an FOS seeing as nothing else was happening and i want him to clarify it up. its not like i voted for him yet or anything. Might as well just use this entire post rather than quoting everything that's nested inside it. First of all, reflex FOS after one post? That goes a little far, I think (never mind that FOS does nothing in this game, just inflames people and is essentially a push for early votes). Same sentiment could have been expressed as I have already - I've said already that I have a negative read on NT without making some big stink about it. Pressure plays should be vote based, because an FOS does nothing. On March 12 2012 07:16 Nova_Terra wrote: This clarifies things substantially. Lylo: a situation where town must lynch mafia or they lose. FoS: finger of suspicion. Basically trying to get you to post to defend yourself. The point i was trying to make about sloosh's play was that that other playstyle should not be overlooked, as it was a vexing position to be in as town. Thanks for the compliment about liking my play, if you meant/included me in that statement. feels nice as i've been trying to justify my apparently hastily made Finger of Suspicion. Dont think that flattery will change anything on my end though. I'll be watching... I agree with building cases on peoples posts rather than the alternative, but i am confused as to why you didnt say just that. To me it came across as if you were trying to make his post seem invalid in the eyes of others by calling it stupid. in the games i have read through, this played a big part in how the town functioned around some certain players. unrelated side note, I have a nasty trigonometry class tomorrow, might need your help cosine xD All jokes aside, I think cosine is relatively cleared of suspicion for the most part. Next, eleanthus (or something along the lines of that): The main thing that bugged me about his post was just the "lynching lurkers maybe" thing. was wishy-washy, he presented nothing new to us and we couldnt even be sure of what his decision was. also, it slightly irked me that he totally seemed to ignore pretty much everything that had happened so far. I dont find it extremely suspicious or anything, but i want him to make a nice big post like cosine's so we can read into his thoughts so far. Lastly, Lurkers and/or lurker lynches. In this case, if we cant get anything out of eleanthus, then he is likely to be the candidate of choice for lynching. however, in the high probability chance of him doing exactly what cosine did, and having no other major scum slips come out of anyone, we will likely be put into the situation where we have to lynch one of these three to avoid a no lynch. Can i propose that we should decide which one of these three (or eleanthus) we should lynch no less than 8 hours before the deadline? this means that there wont be any last minute scrambling that results in a no lynch, and also provides enough of a time buffer that we should all be able to get votes in on that person before the deadline. This also leaves them plenty of time to come back and post before this decision. Reasonable? okay, im out for the night, see you all in a few hours. I found this quote funny because A) he accuses Eleanthus of being wishy-washy on lurker lynches when I believe I've done a fairly good job of illustrating that he did the same thing with his early post, and B) we've gone from "maybe we shouldn't lynch lurkers because they might not be lurking" to "hey, let's look at lynching lurkers if we need to, in order to get a lynch in". He then goes on to move his vote off of FirmTofu later because he doesn't think that FT's lurking is actually lurking - so we're back to his first viewpoint. On March 13 2012 01:08 Nova_Terra wrote: No, I did not accuse him, however i did say that if he didnt post again and was lurking after a suspicious post that he had made, he would be a good lynch candidate. Its no more than suggesting we lynch a suspicious lurker during the day. I insisted once again on explaining the motives for my change of atitude because you seemed to ignore it and continue along your train of thought. felt that i had to clarify again so you would be sure to understand my motives. Now if you were suspicious of someone, and then somebody called you suspicious for being suspicious of that person, then went on to say the exact same reasons for also finding the person you accused of being suspicious of suspicious, wouldn't you be frustrated too? It just doesn't make sense to me. like, " This makes you seem guilty, but yeah i agree for all of the reasons you just said." And where did i threaten you? The fact that i was working on showing why i found your post to be suspicious isnt a threat. Its just what i was working on already. I didnt do it as a result or becoming mad or anything, i just wanted to show why it was strange. And once again it appears that you seem to have completely ignored my post. You should go back and read/respond to it. @Mementoss, yeah, im mad. Its because I dont understand why the rest of the town is thinking differently than me. or thinking the same and yet finding me suspicious for thinking in the way i am. It just doesnt make sense to me Eleanthas has my vote currently, until he posts up, and i think that he is the best candidate as the other 'lurkers' posted and his post was widely found suspicious. ##Vote Eleanthas So much to talk about in this post. NT OMGUS's after Sbrubbles brings up the point that his recent posts had already been defensive. The reaction's totally out of proportion to what's going on here. The interesting thing that I see here is that NT keeps on emphasizing "I didn't accuse cosine!" I disagree. On March 12 2012 01:57 Nova_Terra wrote: his post . . . seemed very scummy (emphasis mine) On March 12 2012 01:59 Nova_Terra wrote: EBWOP: and if cosine doesnt post and we dont get any other leads i feel that he would be a good lynch candidate. That's an accusation. Let's move on to the OMGUS reaction in the post @ 14:58 (it's nested). Sbrubbles sums up the post sequence rather nicely in his first post where he points out that NT accuses cosine (I've already discussed why this is an accurate portrayal), and then immediately goes on the extreme defensive when people start asking questions. How is this suspicious? I have absolutely no idea, because NT's explanation doesn't make a ton of sense. I just want to point out like posts like this are scummy. Not making any “accusations” or anything. 1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion 3. Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. First of all, calling someone a scummy poster is apparently not the same as saying they're scum. What? Secondly, I think I've made the point clear already that NT's been acting scummy in this thread. Why wouldn't Sbrubbles point out suspicions based on reading the thread - that's kind of the point of the game. Defensive, OMGUS reaction - that says scum to me. Sbrubbles isn't misunderstanding an argument when he uses NT's own posts to make his point. He's pointing out an inconsistency. I'd say TN's making a pretty clear finger point especially after his second post. Let's not forget this gem: On March 13 2012 01:10 Nova_Terra wrote: EBWOP: also, why would Sbrubbles want to pressure me for a response? compare to: 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. I'd also like to point out at this point that Mafia is a game of information. Eliciting responses from other players helps the town; why would NT dislike the application of pressure if he was town? On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. DT lists are a terrible idea, because A) it gives scum the opportunity to react, knowing that the DT will be checking the people on the list and B) the DT should be investigating and breadcrumbing his own results, not going off a list that could be influenced by scum. While I do have a town read on phagga, nothing's guaranteed - what's to say that's not a scum list? Plus, you're not even taking into account the possibility of a framer. Endorsing this list is scummy play. On March 14 2012 14:53 Nova_Terra wrote: Okay, i dont have time for a long post right now, but i will come on in a few hours and hopefully respond to everything in this post. Lets just think about this for a second. Forgive me if i am wrong, but Sbrubbles didnt really present us with anything other than suspicion about me. he did it twice, i believe, and both times it was noticable. Then he dies. Of course it makes sense to suspect me, but Thats just the point. What would the mafia gain from his death if he died? nothing really, and his only big suspicion was on me. Therefore i would seem suspicious. its like framing without a framer, i guess. I voted for Gossemerr instead of tofu because i thought tofu was a townie and therefore not the target to lynch. it makes sense to avoid lynching someone you suspect as townie. By thinking Eleanthas i meant that i agreed with whoever suggested a vote on him unless he stepped up, which he did. I meant that i would probably go with him of nothing else came up and he didnt post. I apologise, i should have clarified what i thought more. sorry, i will post in a couple hours, just dont have the time, and i hate typing on an ipad. First of all, let's talk about Sbrubbles. NT does a great job WIFOMing his way out of this. "Well, it couldn't possibly be because Sbrubbles suspected me, it's because the mafia wanted me to be under closer suspicion!" We have only his word on this, and I'm not inclined to take it. WIFOM is not credible. By killing Sbrubbles, the mafia gain the benefit of silencing someone who was already suspicious of one of their members. Occam's Razor - the simplest explanation is usually the most credible. I think this applies even more here because this is a newbie game. I doubt there are going to be the same level of mindgames here as there would be in a game full of vets. NT uses the excuse of "Well, I decided Tofu was a townie" to justify his vote switch, but honestly, his vote switch was completely meaningless. The result was already set, so he could switch with impunity - in fact, you notice that he says things like On March 13 2012 05:09 Nova_Terra wrote: Truthfully i have a feeling that this vote will end up mislynching a townie. I think a mafia would be defending themselves right now. even so, i dont see how we could get much of a better lynch.... after the majority's already locked in on FT. At this point, he's able to backfill and make these posts, since it doesn't matter whether he votes for FT or someone else. Was he the motivator of this vote? No, but he certainly didn't object until after there was already a majority. He even states himself that it was "too close to the lynch deadline" to stop the bandwagon rolling. Alright, now we get to come back to that point I made earlier about the Eleantris vote on day 1. I want to point out that NT's already made clear his early suspicions of Elea, and then posts his case on a Gosse/Elea/InfernO scumteam (It's a lot of words, I won't quote it here). He then proceeds to vote for...Gossemerr. Why? I have absolutely no idea, considering he already had his suspicions of Elea on day one. I'll also note here that he was one of the first people to swap his vote to Elea, and I'd actually argue that him doing so really got the bandwagon rolling, considering we really needed a lynch Day 2 (we were already at 3 on Gosse, and then everyone followed TN to Elea). Lastly, I'd like to quote phagga: On March 16 2012 08:32 phagga wrote: Nova_Terra: No offense, but I think you are reading to much into the connection between Gossemerr, Eleanthas and inferno. That case won't hold with those arguments, I'm afraid. I really didn't want to put this into my case if I was the only one saying it, but phagga's right there with me. This whole "connection analysis" thing that NT's pushing is very weak. I don't think it's a legitimate case, and it's meant to distract us from scumhunting. I'd also like to take into account the lynch results of Day 2. Eleantris was TOWN. NT's been busy being "suspicious" of Elea since Day 1, and obviously nothing's changed since that point as far as his feelings have gone (see his day 2 case, as mentioned earlier). If you count Sbrubbles, that's two townies that have disappeared after attracting NT's attention - on this one, he even admits leading the mislynch. Interesting. | ||
Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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