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ZBot
194 Posts
Current votes: Eleanthas (1): Seviro koritora (1): Janaan Janaan (1): Gossemerr InfernOokami7 (1): phagga Not voting: Nova_Terra, Eleanthas, koritora, cosine, Mementoss, InfernOokami7 The Day deadline is at 2012-03-16 12:00:00. (That's approximately 11:53:21 from now.) | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
''But sine either hasn't spoken up lately...'' Inferno had really posted much more. Tough his posts had been him trying to state his earlier posts. Still Inferno had come about 3 hours earlir and defended himself and told, why we should lynch FirmTofu. ~Eleanthas on InfernOokami The Gossemerr case In Gossemerr's filter, He mentions Eleanthas a grand total of 1 time, In which he soft defends him by saying he fails to see why Eleanthas was more suspicious than anyone else. In gossemerr's 12 ingame posts, half of them are meaningless 1-2 lines or short answers that can barely be counted as contributing. Then, there is that post that soft defends ele, The post where he decides to lynch Firmtofu without much reasoning on his part, and the post where he says that he thinks firm is town, presents an unlikely situation, and decides to continue lynching him anyway. Yes, a grand total of 3 posts he makes contain any real information. In one, he throws a bit of sight to janaans "weird" posting timing, and ends it by trying to make it seem like he isnt trying to direct any attention. In another, he analyzes why we shouldnt no lynch, so a totally worthless post really. In the last, he dreams up a connection between Janaan, Phagga, and myself. Then he votes janaan with little reasoning, and this little reasoning had already been brought up by me. so just restating what i had said. Then add that to how he says phagga makes little analysis, etc. Also, He appears to want a active lynch instead of a lurker lynch. which didnt bother me originally, but now i can see what this did, if he was a mafia with Eleanthas and InfernO. Ele and Gossemerr had been semi lurking, posting barely any content. InfernO is a hardcore lurker. I think he is trying to distract attention away from lurkers/semi lurkers by his Janaan voting post. Also, Gossemerr never mentions infernOokami. ever. And, as i explained in a post or two ago, Gossemerr seems to be here, a lot. The Eleanthas case Eleanthas mentions Gossemerr a grand total of ZERO times in his entire filter. He really never adds anything of great value to the table, and when in agreement with someone pretty just restates what they said. Not only is this suspicious within itself, but 2 of eleanthas' 8 Posts soft defend InfernO. On Inferno's first non-lurk post, Ele responds by not questioning his lurking, more just stating that Inferno is trying to lurk, which was relatively obvious, and kind of gives him the free pass by saying that he would like to hear more from Inferno in the future. In his latest post, he defends Inferno's lurking in a relatively moderate manner. He says that he defends himself, and doesnt seem to have much of a problem with inferno having said the same thing multiple times. Every now and then he comes in with a 1 or 2 liner to make it seem like he is adding something to the discussion. for instance, Last 2 hours to affect to my vote. Then going to go to sleep. or I don't really like putting list of guys who should be checked and tell DT to check one of them. If mafia has framer, it makes it too easy to make someone appear as mafia. Which may seem partially helpful, but all it really does is help is it helps stop the spread of town information.Or even still I hope that people learn my name by the end of the game or only call me as Ele ^^ Meaningless fluffcontinuing Atleast it says you have to have : on vote so making sure my vote counts yepand last but not least Ok. Just got first chance to get on computer. And I think that we should lynch lurker maybe. They are anyways pretty worthless if they don't speak. Yes, that is 5 of Eleanthas' 8 ingame posts that are 1-2 lines and dont really contribute. Then count the fact that 2 of his other 3 posts have defended Inferno. Yes, 2 thirds of eleanthas' posts have been to defend or reference inferno's play as not being very suspicious. Then add that with the fact that Inferno has been lurking, and how Eleanthas' first post says that we should lynch a lurker (maybe), and how Eleanthas refuses to suspect inferno. I am liking this connection more and more. The InfernOokami7 Case Lets delve into InfernO's extensive 6 ingame posts. Most of which are made to avoid being replaced, it seems. One, he asks about his opinion in a question. Two, he further explains his side. Three, he adds to it. Four, he clarifies it Five, He clarifies a typo SIX! He finally posts analysis! He distracts from our suspiciousness of his own absence by noting how i seem to have little to say about FirmTofu's absence. at the time, my stances were already being questioned, and therefore this could be seen as an attempt to further find me suspicious. then he uses WIFOM to further prove his side. and attempts to jump onboard the bandwagon which Ele and Gosse had jumped on as well. All in all, InfernO isnt extremely suspicious, but when coupled with the way Ele and Gosse have been acting about him, i can see in my mind a mafia trio. I like this hunch. A lot. I would love to see people's thoughts on this. I worked hard ^^ | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
##Vote: Gossemerr | ||
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
Cosine's Replacement: Wow. This is nice. We lose one of the lurkers without having to waste a town lynch and are getting someone that will hopefully contribute to the discussion and finding scum. For now, I think we need to wipe the slate clean and see Velinath's opinion on the state of the thread, after he gets a good chance to go through it. Then we can make an opinion on him based on his views, and posting motives, etc. Phagga's Lurker Post: + Show Spoiler + On March 15 2012 18:38 phagga wrote: 1.) In almost every mafia game I have read so far there were scum who were lurking. In my last game (Newbie IV), there were 4 scum, 2 of them were lurking almost all game, 1 vs the end. 2.) I agree that there are also active scum. I have my suspects, I read through the filters. However, I am not too sure about my reads yet, and I don't want to mislynch an active townie. Also, I don't want the lurkers to get away with their behaviour, because they won't change anything if we let them get away with it. Lynching a lurker gives us time to flesh out our cases, removes a player with anti-town behaviour and keeps as many active townies in the game as possible. We will be able to analyze vote patterns and justficiations. As a side effect, one of the other lurkers might get more active. 3.) Don't forget that the lurkers, should the fail to vote, will not be modkilled, but replaced, as it states in the Rules: We have three people on the replacement list. Now consider that all 3 lurkers get replaced, we mislynch an active townie and another one gets shot at night by scum. We will be 5 townies to 3 mafia on D3 with 3 new people on which we have zero information. This is not a situation I want to be in. There are two ways to avoid that situation: We lynch a confirmed scum (which we do not have and will not have), or we lynch a lurker (which is easy, there are 3 of them right now). 4.) I'm referencing the newbie mini IV again: Would we have started to lynch all the lurkers from D2 to D4, we would have at least lynched one scum, perhaps even two. We did not, instead lynched active townies and mafia won the game. 5.) Finally, I'm gonna make one more list (Don't you love them?): Active Players (6): - Gossemerr - Mementoss - Nova_Terra - Seviro - Janaan - phagga Somehow active but barely contributing (1): - Eleanthas lurking like there is no tomorrow (3): - cosine - koritora - InfernOokami7 If all mafia is in the active players group, this town is as good as dead already. I doubt anyone is going to trust Eleanthas or any of the lurkers or their replacements for now, so if all 3 scum are in the active group, they can easily direct any discussion to their liking on N2/D3. So I will assume that there are about 4 to 5 townies in this group, which leaves some scum in either Eleanthas or the lurker group. Also, this ties back to point two, mislynching an active townie will hurt us much more than any lurker mislynch. tldr; lynch lurker, better for town, less risk. I agree with Phagga's thoughts on the lurkers. For one, they are basically a safe lynch. You can bet that one of them is probably mafia, and even if they are not mafia, they are not helping the town find mafia. Two, unless you have a really solid case on someone who has consistently been active, it's a risky lynch. If you are wrong and lynch town you will lose one your few solid scum-hunters, and then that night another will probably be picked off by the mafia. This could lead to a late game scenario with a couple good analysts, (1-2 possibly being mafia controlling the town thoughts) and a couple semi-posters/lurkers. In my last game a mafia lurked so hard into day 4 before being lynched, like literally, said things like I wish I could be replaced but they can't find one, then dropping votes 30 min before deadline without explanation. Damn. Three, if a couple lurkers get replaced some of our reads are reset, and the town is in a really weird state, where they disparately need a mafia lynch, but they have all new faces to worry about. Phagga, Janaan, Nova_Terra Connection: + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 21:52 Mementoss wrote: Also I noticed something else that was a bit weird. Maybe just a coincidence. The connection between Phagga and Nova_Terra 1. Only 2 people to have suspicion on Sbrubbles. Phagga and Nova_Terra. I've already shown Nova's so here is Phaggas post. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 18:33 phagga wrote: Where is FirmTofu? He posted a lurker list 5 hours into the game (which is VERY early for a lurkerlist) and has not posted since then. If we would hold him up to his own standard, he is lurking very hard. You can see his filter here I read through all the filters, and besides FirmTofu the following people are rather suspicious to me: - Eleanthas (Only posted a one liner) - koritora (not posting anything of value) - sbrubbles (only two posts in rapid succession where he basically calls out lurkers and fluff, only to disappear again). IMO, if there is a DT out there, these four would be possible check targets. What do you guys think about it? Also, if none of them adds anyhting significant in the next 6 hours, my vote will go to one of these four. Soft deadline 8 hours before is ok with me. Also, as a heads up, I generally won't be around on deadline, as it is at 3 am in my timezone. By final vote will normally be casted around 5 to 3 hours before deadline. --> Also maybe trying to push a waste of DT check onto Sbrubbles? 2. Another agreeance on the DT check, again maybe trying to lure out a Blue or waste a check? + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. 3. First to defend Nova_Terra + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 18:47 phagga wrote: Seviro, while I like your analysis on a first glance, I would like to note that you start your case with some heavy WIFOM. We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia. There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win. However, I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time. --> Doesn't really go into the case, just dis regards it because it has some WIFOM. When really, there was a lot of WIFOM but there were some other good points too, that he didn't post his opinion on. Adds some fluff about trying to guess what the mafia is up to is useless. Well usually finding what the mafia are up to leads to them, and it all starts making sense. Or you find a mafia, then you find what they were up to and make a connection that way. So yes eventually mafia motives are relevant. 4. Leaves Nova_terra out of his analysis because of the vote switch. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas Even though the vote switch does not prove innocence or town so this seems a bit odd. Unless it was pre-planned. FirmTofu already had the majority, so Nova_Terra could switch. Phagga could then post an analysis post, to look town, while leaving out any analysis of his scum buddy Nova_Terra, without looking suspicious because of the vote switch. These are just some things I noticed and my thoughts for now. But as of now, I'm leaning towards ##FOS: Nova Terran I was the one who originally brought up the Phagga/Nova_Terra connection. I still believe my evidence and case holds true. The problem is I do not have a solid case for either of them being mafia. I just have a case right now between them being connected either accidently, or just by coincidence. This is why I didn't put a FoS or preliminary vote on either of them. As stated in the Lurker section I find this too risky right now, considering the lurkish state of the town. And am thinking of the late game scenario where if we have good analysists, a good DT, once we catch one scum it should come together for us. Second, on this. The Janaan connection that Gossemer brings up. I just don't see it, and Gossemer doesn't bring up the quotes in his post to connect the dots at all. His explanation says of the Janaan link is as follows: On March 15 2012 08:27 Gossemerr wrote: Moving on, there is a fishy link between Janaan, Phagga, and Nova_Terra. Nova's behavior has already been discussed so not going to bring that up here, but Phagga has not really has yet to been focused. He /she has yet to really offer any analysis except one post a few hours after the day 2 post, in which he / she focuses only on the people who voted for FirmTofu, and doing so dismisses Janaan rather easily as town. While on the issue of voting, he constantly wants to talk about the people who are lurking, but there is realy nothing to talk about considering that they are lurking.. Seems scummy to me to keep the town going in circles and wasting hours of actual analysis. Of course the lurkers could be mafia, but really nothing new here. Janaan also wants to lynch the lurkers, and easily agrees with Phagga. The latter part being about Janaan. Basically just says he dismisses him as town. There is a difference between not having an FoS on someone and calling them town. Also this was during the early part of Night 1, its been a day and a half since then. Also talking about lurking doesn't make a connection. It's a general town idea to want to get lurkers to talk and to pressure them into talking. If no one talks mafia wins. He then brings up the point of Janaan not contributing which Phagga counters very well here: On March 15 2012 19:20 phagga wrote: 4 And you said so much more, right? Let's see... You - call cosine suspicious with a daring argument - have disagreed that Eleanthas looks scummy (without giving a reason) - in the same post agreed that FirmTofu looks scummy, reasoning that you wanted to make the same case as Mementoss (but never presented one) - call out Janaan for having a "weird timing" - try to make up a connection between me, Janaan and Nova_Terra And you think you have contributed more than Janaan? I mean, he is lacking content too, but you are definitely the wrong one to call him out on that. Eleanthas/Gossemer/Infern0 Connection: + Show Spoiler + On March 16 2012 01:44 Nova_Terra wrote: I am beginning to notice a connection as well between Eleanthas, Gossemerr, and Inferno. By connection, in some cases, I mean lack of connection. You will see what i mean. I recommend that everybody goes to google images, searches "I haz a hunch" and see the first result. ''But sine either hasn't spoken up lately...'' Inferno had really posted much more. Tough his posts had been him trying to state his earlier posts. Still Inferno had come about 3 hours earlir and defended himself and told, why we should lynch FirmTofu. ~Eleanthas on InfernOokami The Gossemerr case In Gossemerr's filter, He mentions Eleanthas a grand total of 1 time, In which he soft defends him by saying he fails to see why Eleanthas was more suspicious than anyone else. In gossemerr's 12 ingame posts, half of them are meaningless 1-2 lines or short answers that can barely be counted as contributing. Then, there is that post that soft defends ele, The post where he decides to lynch Firmtofu without much reasoning on his part, and the post where he says that he thinks firm is town, presents an unlikely situation, and decides to continue lynching him anyway. Yes, a grand total of 3 posts he makes contain any real information. In one, he throws a bit of sight to janaans "weird" posting timing, and ends it by trying to make it seem like he isnt trying to direct any attention. In another, he analyzes why we shouldnt no lynch, so a totally worthless post really. In the last, he dreams up a connection between Janaan, Phagga, and myself. Then he votes janaan with little reasoning, and this little reasoning had already been brought up by me. so just restating what i had said. Then add that to how he says phagga makes little analysis, etc. Also, He appears to want a active lynch instead of a lurker lynch. which didnt bother me originally, but now i can see what this did, if he was a mafia with Eleanthas and InfernO. Ele and Gossemerr had been semi lurking, posting barely any content. InfernO is a hardcore lurker. I think he is trying to distract attention away from lurkers/semi lurkers by his Janaan voting post. Also, Gossemerr never mentions infernOokami. ever. And, as i explained in a post or two ago, Gossemerr seems to be here, a lot. The Eleanthas case Eleanthas mentions Gossemerr a grand total of ZERO times in his entire filter. He really never adds anything of great value to the table, and when in agreement with someone pretty just restates what they said. Not only is this suspicious within itself, but 2 of eleanthas' 8 Posts soft defend InfernO. On Inferno's first non-lurk post, Ele responds by not questioning his lurking, more just stating that Inferno is trying to lurk, which was relatively obvious, and kind of gives him the free pass by saying that he would like to hear more from Inferno in the future. In his latest post, he defends Inferno's lurking in a relatively moderate manner. He says that he defends himself, and doesnt seem to have much of a problem with inferno having said the same thing multiple times. Every now and then he comes in with a 1 or 2 liner to make it seem like he is adding something to the discussion. for instance, or Which may seem partially helpful, but all it really does is help is it helps stop the spread of town information. Or even still Meaningless fluff continuing yep and last but not least Yes, that is 5 of Eleanthas' 8 ingame posts that are 1-2 lines and dont really contribute. Then count the fact that 2 of his other 3 posts have defended Inferno. Yes, 2 thirds of eleanthas' posts have been to defend or reference inferno's play as not being very suspicious. Then add that with the fact that Inferno has been lurking, and how Eleanthas' first post says that we should lynch a lurker (maybe), and how Eleanthas refuses to suspect inferno. I am liking this connection more and more. The InfernOokami7 Case Lets delve into InfernO's extensive 6 ingame posts. Most of which are made to avoid being replaced, it seems. One, he asks about his opinion in a question. Two, he further explains his side. Three, he adds to it. Four, he clarifies it Five, He clarifies a typo SIX! He finally posts analysis! He distracts from our suspiciousness of his own absence by noting how i seem to have little to say about FirmTofu's absence. at the time, my stances were already being questioned, and therefore this could be seen as an attempt to further find me suspicious. then he uses WIFOM to further prove his side. and attempts to jump onboard the bandwagon which Ele and Gosse had jumped on as well. All in all, InfernO isnt extremely suspicious, but when coupled with the way Ele and Gosse have been acting about him, i can see in my mind a mafia trio. I like this hunch. A lot. I would love to see people's thoughts on this. I worked hard ^^ Originally brought up by Phagga, then fleshed out a little more with a focus on Eleanthas, then brought together with each person's case in mind as a whole by Nova_Terra. So for this part im gunna focus on the Nova_Terra post and what his thoughts were. I went through the filters, and see what he is seeing and agree with him. I will re-iterate the main points of just the connection now: Gossermer: Soft defend on Ele, only time mentions Ele in all posts On March 13 2012 04:19 Gossemerr wrote: At the moment I don't see how Eleanthas is acting any more scummy than others. Regarding FirTofu, I was going to make the same case as Mementoss, but was just waiting for more posts by him / her. So, I will add my vote untill / if other information becomes available. ##Vote: FirmTofu Never mentions Infern0 Eleanthas: Never mentions Gossemer States opinion to lynch a lurker, then soft defends Infern0 the biggest lurker in the game. On March 11 2012 21:43 Eleanthas wrote: Ok. Just got first chance to get on computer. And I think that we should lynch lurker maybe. They are anyways pretty worthless if they don't speak. On March 13 2012 01:57 Eleanthas wrote: So what I think about InfernOokami7: beside that post he has 4 post saying pretty much same. I guess he is trying to lurk by stating same thing in many posts. Would like to hear about him. And lastly about FirmTofu: Like many others pointed out FirmTofu posted 2 fast posts. Seems kinda suspicous to me. Telling to pick one of the lurkers and listing them and then vanishing. If we don't hear about him, my vote is gonna go for him. ##Vote FirmTofu ^^Same type of format as Gossemers post, defends a fellow in the connection, then goes with FirmTofu lynch with little to no reasoning. Infern0: Hasn’t posted anything of significance except for jumping on the FirmTofu bandwagon On March 13 2012 06:22 InfernOokami7 wrote: I feel that FirmTofu's first few comments were to produce discussion from those who hadn't contributed to the game (myself included on that list). I don't find fault in that initial posting, but his absence from that point is suspicious. His post drew attention to everyone else in the thread, while he could sit back and watch everyone on that list try to make a case for themselves not to get lynched. ##Vote: FirmTofu Final Thoughts: I basically agree with Nova_Terra's thoughts on Gossemer. He is in the semi-contributing pile. A dangerous pile where it is easy for mafia to stay. Can get away with half thoughts to be not lurking, but not lead the town closer to every finding scum. Can either push lurker lynches, or just fluff up the thread and waste time. He has many fluff posts. Wants to lynch a contributer, with very little evidence, something you could barely call a case, seems to mainly be on feeling. Does he know more than he should? This suspicious behavior coupled with dodging some other suspicious characters, and not being a real contributer to the scum-hunting, makes me think Gossemer is a safe lynch. There is a good chance he's scum and if he does flip red, we got a solid path to get a roll on killing the whole damn mafia. So for now I'm going to throw down my preliminary vote. I will come back and re-check for further discussion to see if my mind changes, but for now. ##Vote: Gossemerr | ||
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
On March 13 2012 04:19 Gossemerr wrote: At the moment I don't see how Eleanthas is acting any more scummy than others. Regarding FirTofu, I was going to make the same case as Mementoss, but was just waiting for more posts by him / her. So, I will add my vote untill / if other information becomes available. ##Vote: FirmTofu On March 13 2012 09:57 Gossemerr wrote: Since nobody is stepping up to defend FirmTofu, minus possibly the last post by kori and a earlier change of heart by nova, I have a feeling that FirmTofu is town. That is of course unless nova and possibly kori are scum as well. I'm not changing my vote, just putting that point out there. You should NEVER vote for someone who you think is town! This is something that came up in my last game (Newbie Mafia I, if I recall correctly). Gossemerr voted for FirmTofu, said he felt like FirmTofu was town, still voted for him. That's not good play - bad town at best, scummy at worst. On that note, I'm voting more based on what I've written here and less on Nova_Terra's case. I believe that there are significant holes in that case, mainly focused around the idea of "if the relationship exists between these three players, then this case is accurate". I don't believe that's a reasonable way of scumhunting, mainly because you run the risk of getting very sidetracked. In addition, I feel that if anything, post analysis was better for Eleanthas in Nova's case, and I do wonder why Nova didn't vote for Elea (or InfernOokami7, given that there was already one vote on Inf if I read the thread correctly). I'll just put this out there - I don't trust Nova_Terra. A case will be forthcoming, but I feel that Gossemerr is a relatively good lynch based on what I've presented above, not due to NT's case. ##Vote: Gossemerr | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
I just hope i live to see the results of it  | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
Welcome! I feel more that Gossemerr is related to eleanthas, and that eleanthas is related to inferno. also, the fact that Gossemerr seems to ignore Inferno as a whole leads me to believe that they are trying to not become involved with eachother, but taking it to a new extreme. When you post your case against me, please make sure you compared it against the previous cases made against me to make sure that the same things arent in there twice. Its a pain, Thanks. | ||
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
I put my vote onto Gossemerr because i find that in his posts, he is the most dangerous player out of the three. I find that his posting has some qualities that make his arguments seem plausible and valid, and shares his ideas/information (when he has any) in the most comprehensive manner out of the three, which is why i find him more dangerous. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
On March 14 2012 03:03 Eleanthas wrote: Is it wrong that you agree with people? I really think that there was nothing new anybody could have risen up. Besides. It was pretty much case of ''If you don't speak, we lynch you.'', so decided to post my view of the game that point (wich agreed with many people), than being lynched for saying nothing. On March 14 2012 08:36 Gossemerr wrote: There is not much action going on so it is kinda hard to read anyone. Only thing that pops out at me is Janaan talking about the days votes after its already over. Earlier he said he would keep watch on the thread, and koritora posted the no lynch vote only a few minutes after his (Janaan's) last post. Kinda scummy imo to bring this up after the fact. Either way I agree with the analysis, just weird timing. In this case, Ele's post is defensive and doesn't change any thoughts in my mind. Gosse's post, on the other hand, quietly puts a little bit of question and suspicion of Janaan into my mind. Had i not read through is filter in depth, I probably wouldnt have picked up on the seeming intent to do this. So thats why i wanted to lynch Gosse. I feel that he is playing a better, smarter game (no offense meant to either ele or infernO) | ||
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Janaan
United States381 Posts
The cases against Gossemer seem pretty good after reading them over. I'd like for him to have a chance to respond to them before the vote deadline, hopefully he'll show up. At the moment, I want to stick with my original read on Koritora, but there's enough evidence that I would be willing to switch to Gossemer if needed. I think it's possible that Nova_Terra is right about the whole thing, but I'm not sure. | ||
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Seviro
Canada98 Posts
On March 16 2012 04:59 Nova_Terra wrote: @ Velinath I put my vote onto Gossemerr because i find that in his posts, he is the most dangerous player out of the three. I find that his posting has some qualities that make his arguments seem plausible and valid, and shares his ideas/information (when he has any) in the most comprehensive manner out of the three, which is why i find him more dangerous. While I agree on that, I feel like if he flips town we would lose a big contibutor of the town whereas if we lynch Eleanthas there is 2 possibilities: 1. he flips Town and we lose a semi-lurker that didn't help the town at all since the start of the game 2. He turns out to be indeed scum which then we can safely say that Gossemer is most likely a scum as well. I feel like Eleanthas is the safest lynch for today, hence my vote. As for the third possible scum, I don't have a clue yet but if these two are indeed scum that would make it much more easier to find him based on their post. | ||
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
what is your feeling about my separate reasoning for voting Gossemerr? In addition, do you consider this Elea/Gosse/InfernOokami case to have merit given that it analyzes based on a specific scumteam? | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
in those 2 cases: 1. he flips town and we lose a semi lurker whos best case is just a few lines suspecting janaan without much reason to back it up 2. he turns out to be a scum which means we can assume that ele is scum as well, which likely makes inferno a scum. I agree with either of the two as a lynch target, but there is something to be said for eliminating the more dangerous player first. I will be on for another ~30 minutes where i can answer questions or change my vote (between those 2). Sorry for any typos, typing on an ipad. | ||
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Gossemerr
United States195 Posts
@Phagga: I never said I did any more analysis / posting than some of you.. I was just pointing out what I thought. @Vel: I said that FT was probably town after my vote upon rereading the thread just before the deadline. Considering he was a heavy lurker, there was still a possiblity that he would flip mafia. I can't explain the ele thing, dude is lurking hard. Also this is my first game, so I can't relate to lurkers like some of you can. Finally, to defend my Janaan vote, I followed my hunch. In my mind better to vote for someone who will actually respond then vote for a lurker who will not say anything back. Also, other people have allowed Janaan to not even need to defend himself, by just blasting me. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
I am interested to know why you dont agree with my other points on why gosse is suspicious. For instance, his semi case on janaan that make him even vote his name? Also, Please let me know What these holes in the case are. my brain seems to be working faster than my hands when i write these, and i sometimes forget a point or two that i meant to have in places, etc. It was just a lot better formulated in my mind. | ||
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Seviro
Canada98 Posts
On March 16 2012 05:57 Velinath wrote: Seviro, what is your feeling about my separate reasoning for voting Gossemerr? In addition, do you consider this Elea/Gosse/InfernOokami case to have merit given that it analyzes based on a specific scumteam? About Gossemerr voting for someone that he thought could be town, It was day one, and there was no strong case about anyone, we were discussing about lynching lurkers and FIrmTofu was one of the biggest at that time (in fact he was not lurking only was not able to participate due to real life but we didn't know that at this time). I mean Of course he thought that there was a posibility for Tofu to be a town but Gosse didn't want to risk a no-lynch on day one. On March 11 2012 14:28 Gossemerr wrote: I would have to say that if we didn't lynch, we would just end up prolonging "day 1" and not have any new information to build on afterwards. On March 11 2012 14:38 Gossemerr wrote: Well like you said, if the there is a good amount of evidence that those being voted on are townies; then of course a no lynch would be best. I'm guessing that we will not be certain either way. There was no evidence that Tofu was indeed a town so I don't think Gosse voting for him even he could have been a town is that suspicious. For your second point, the case of nova on Eleanthas/Gossemerr/InfernOokami connection I don't think it is the good approach yet. Of course if Elean or Gosse turns out to be scum that will be a good idea to find what connection they had with other people but for now we are sure of nothing. As Mementoss stated, we could see a connection between Phagga and Nova as well + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 21:52 Mementoss wrote: Also I noticed something else that was a bit weird. Maybe just a coincidence. The connection between Phagga and Nova_Terra 1. Only 2 people to have suspicion on Sbrubbles. Phagga and Nova_Terra. I've already shown Nova's so here is Phaggas post. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 18:33 phagga wrote: Where is FirmTofu? He posted a lurker list 5 hours into the game (which is VERY early for a lurkerlist) and has not posted since then. If we would hold him up to his own standard, he is lurking very hard. You can see his filter here I read through all the filters, and besides FirmTofu the following people are rather suspicious to me: - Eleanthas (Only posted a one liner) - koritora (not posting anything of value) - sbrubbles (only two posts in rapid succession where he basically calls out lurkers and fluff, only to disappear again). IMO, if there is a DT out there, these four would be possible check targets. What do you guys think about it? Also, if none of them adds anyhting significant in the next 6 hours, my vote will go to one of these four. Soft deadline 8 hours before is ok with me. Also, as a heads up, I generally won't be around on deadline, as it is at 3 am in my timezone. By final vote will normally be casted around 5 to 3 hours before deadline. --> Also maybe trying to push a waste of DT check onto Sbrubbles? 2. Another agreeance on the DT check, again maybe trying to lure out a Blue or waste a check? + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. 3. First to defend Nova_Terra + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 18:47 phagga wrote: Seviro, while I like your analysis on a first glance, I would like to note that you start your case with some heavy WIFOM. We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia. There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win. However, I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time. --> Doesn't really go into the case, just dis regards it because it has some WIFOM. When really, there was a lot of WIFOM but there were some other good points too, that he didn't post his opinion on. Adds some fluff about trying to guess what the mafia is up to is useless. Well usually finding what the mafia are up to leads to them, and it all starts making sense. Or you find a mafia, then you find what they were up to and make a connection that way. So yes eventually mafia motives are relevant. 4. Leaves Nova_terra out of his analysis because of the vote switch. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas Even though the vote switch does not prove innocence or town so this seems a bit odd. Unless it was pre-planned. FirmTofu already had the majority, so Nova_Terra could switch. Phagga could then post an analysis post, to look town, while leaving out any analysis of his scum buddy Nova_Terra, without looking suspicious because of the vote switch. These are just some things I noticed and my thoughts for now. But as of now, I'm leaning towards ##FOS: Nova Terran Even if there is some sort of connection between 2 people, that doesn't mean that they are both scum. It can be : 1. 2 Town agreeing with each others and liking each other way of thinking 2. 1 scum agreeing with a townie that is on the bad track 3. 2 Scum defending each others. All in all, I don'T think that we are at a point where connection are all that important, sure it can help for future analysis but we shouldn't let our vote be influenced only by it. | ||
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Gossemerr
United States195 Posts
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
I am okay with either lynch. But sorta leaning towards Eleanthas since Gossemerr came back. However, we have to come to an agreement as a town, pretty quick. I hope Phagga comes back as he said he would, and no one is talking about the infern0 lynch right now, where his vote is held. Im staying on Gossemerr for now, but remember we need 6 votes for a lynch. Let's get talking and come to an agreement for the town. | ||
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Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
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