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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On November 29 2020 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: i feel like it's especially useless talking with you atm since even if you are town you either stick to whatever you believe anyways, or say youre gonna look at something and then in fact straight out do nothing about it. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Other than the fact that there would be three blues in the setup, why is Hapahauli mafia here? I just finished reading your filter, and it seems like the clinching argument is that Hapahauli was saying mafia couldn't kill him N2 because there was the threat of his mad hatter bomb blowing up Vivax. Is that correct? Because I am under the impression (which could be wrong) that if he were to place the bomb and get shot in the same night, the bomb would still go off on the target. If that is not the case, then I agree with you that what Hapahauli is saying makes no sense and that would be suspect. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
A big part of this stems from Hapa not taking a stance on who he thinks is mafia today. Despite several times saying he thinks Vivax is scum, and a big chunk of his arguments as to why Mafia would not kill him RELIES on Vivax being mafia. Hapa did post some reads after his claim, which he even reaffirms later to rayn. In both he says he is down to Rayn/Vivax/Myself but states Vivax is his most confident scum read. Bit of a tangent, but still in order of Hapa's filter, Hapa tells us he did not run for mayor because he wanted to use his role, but he also points out that he made it clear the only role he would not run for mayor with is Hatter. Mind you he feels he outed his role so clearly that Mafia should know that's his role. Anyone else see the irony in this? + Show Spoiler [quotes] + On November 30 2020 08:50 Hapahauli wrote: In that whole post, I'm saying that running for mayor is good with CPR Doc, JK, and Investigative role. So if I'm not running for mayor, that leaves two things: Mad Hatter or Vigi. On November 30 2020 08:53 Hapahauli wrote: And running for mayor is pretty insane with vigi, since I could shoot someone and instantly confirm the mayor role as town. Mad Hatter is the only damn role in the game that I wouldn't run for mayor, because I basically can't use the fucking role if I'm mayor. All this brings me to this On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote: I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was. As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons: 1) I basically afk'd for 3 days. 2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? Now I do actually find the notion that if mafia know Hapa was Jailed they might not shoot him fearing another jail. However, this was Hapa's first thoughts as to why he would be killed and I think it's really important because of his 2nd point. Again we get the sense that from Hapa's pov Vivax HAS to be mafia. Whats even more interesting? On November 29 2020 04:08 Hapahauli wrote: Brief skim. Vivax's attitudes towards wanting to get lurkers before active players generally makes sense. I think his recent posting is much better. I've discussed some of my thoughts on Jocks filter previously. He hasn't posted, and that makes him as good of a lynch as any... even if the lack of resistance bothers me. Frankly, I'm pretty lost this game. I should have more time to play after the holiday weekend ends if I am alive. Hopefully getting rid of an inactive player will help thin the weeds or flip a red. This was Hapa's last post before he claimed Hatter. Put yourself in mafia's shoes, does this make you feel certain that a clearly HatterHapa is bombing Vivax so you shouldn't kill him? No more quotes as this post is big enough but when I asked Hapa what his reads were at the end of the lengthy discussion he claims he has no strong reads and seems to keep wanting to focus on Rayn. Now to me it seems like Hapa clearly thinks Vivax is scum, but he has yet to actually push Vivax or put down a vote on him. Which matches a lot with the way that he backed off his Vivax read (even mildly calling him town) when voting Jock don't you think? This all reads to me like Hapa KNOWS Vivax is mafia, but is reluctant to actually lynch him today if he doesn't have to. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On November 28 2020 19:15 Vivax wrote: My team would be Hapa + Jock atm. I just don't see how Hapa who is super diligent 'mistakenly' claims a roleblock and blurts out he's blue, and neither do I see how he wouldn't think Jock is mafia. Plus he manufactures very convoluted reasoning in cases against me that could be said in a much simpler way. That's because he's prioritizing the convincing over the validity of his case. On November 28 2020 21:41 Vivax wrote: Rayn's point on Trfel is essentially that he's hypocritical with how peeps are throwing votes around on available wagons. As for FF it's that he's one of those people. Overall posting seems townie. I still think Hapa started off the day just like a mafia softing blue would. He goes whoops on his RB claim and doesn't have to reveal the role. But that obviously doesn't make him scum by itself. It just seems unusually sloppy for him. What imo makes him possible scum is (aside from various misreps, thinking of him calling my posting useless) his preference for active players in the lynches. And right now he should be thinking I'm bussing Jock and maybe deliver a scenario where that's possible. He seems otherwise content to let FF and Shockeyy remain in the null area, while he should be having a better read on rayn by now. Really good mafia pushes vocal players first and finishes the job in a finale of coinflips. Granted, I can't find anything in his filter that makes me go HA. It's just that I get a feeling of dishonesty from his preferences and the way he goes about me. On November 29 2020 01:38 Vivax wrote: Certainly would help if Jock came back and posted something. I'm a bit worried that he's the only viable wagon. But I'll vote for him in the meantime. Anyone else around? This post is also giving me pause. Because on the followup Hapa avoids to answer Jocks question where he got the joke candidacy from. I don't know if it has been adressed afterwards though. On November 29 2020 23:08 Vivax wrote: You had multiple posts going on. Which ones in particular do you mean and I don't get what you mean with the last sentence? My reads are far from solid after the Jock flip. I have little conviction on any read besides on you. I think I'd be ok with Fefe as town as well purely tone wise without the semi-martyr-y posts which read too smug for my taste. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On November 26 2020 03:44 Tictock wrote: Yolo scumteam Vivax/Hapa Ahh good times | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
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Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
I'll probably find some time to slack off today I hope. For now: ##vote hapa | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
Tictock (0): Raynpelikoneet (0): Fecalfeast (0): Vivax (0): Hapahauli (3): Trfel (0): No Lynch (0): Not Voting: Vivax, Hapahauli, Trfel Day 3 ends in on Tuesday, Dec 01 8:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). | ||
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Vivax
22080 Posts
Hapa makes most sense as one of the mafia given that he 'accidentally' missed the mechanic where only roles get notified, when it was in truth convenient to set up a later claim. As for the Shockeyy kill, I don't read it as a blue snipe but rather as mafia hiding among active players. Imo that implies either one or both of rayn and Hapa. What's the alternative? That they thought he was BG and want to kill rayn at some point? Seems unlikely. On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote: I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was. As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons: 1) I basically afk'd for 3 days. 2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? It wasn't as easy to deduce as you claim. Me nor anyone else I think deduced you were mad hatter. For mafia maybe, but not certainly. If they did, you should have been roleblocked by not-Trfel (which we can't verify for N1 I think). On November 30 2020 09:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: hapa said he targeted vivax N1 and then said why would mafia kill me if i am gonna take mafia with me, he was roleblocked as per his words N1 so there is no vivax anyways. This too. For the second mafia that leaves one of rayn or TT. If rayn is mafia here he's playing the bus game, trying his hardest to kill Hapa, being able to survive the next night given that his bodyguard he's still alive, hence having the perfect excuse to be alive for another cycle, and then push for TT or me in this scenario. I can't tell from his posts alone, especially because he's advocating the logical course to go about today. But they are very much within the scope of what he is capable of as mafia. If TT is mafia on the other hand, he's still leaving himself wiggle room to switch between me or Hapa by just pushing both at once with the story of how we bussed each other. Of the two options, at the moment I think the rayn + Hapa world is more likely purely based on TT delivering analysis on me and Hapa, and because I believe that at this point, there is a greater incentive for mafia to simply bus. On a Hapa mafia flip, rayn would probably get an edge against TT tomorrow. That said, with Trfel being JK. There's a something something chance that a mislynch doesn't end the game, I think? So no-lynching doesn't seem like a good idea. Unless the scum roleblocker overrides his jailing? The BG role won't be able to stop a jail either. Rayn + TT would also be possible but it's not something I'm willing to entertain atm. I just don't believe someone like Hapa mistakenly claimed the RB, and then makes it through the night unscatched and unroleblocked while Shockeyy dies. Then again it's a strange pick over TT or Fefe. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
tl;dr -Vivax and TicTock come across as a very natural mafia team. - I think Rayn comes across as very town. I will preface this post with two additional points: - I feel that this is an "all or nothing" day for mafia due to the setup. If Trfel is indeed the JK (which I very strongly believe he is), he can effectively confirm a player as town tonight if mafia gets lynched today. I did not see anything in the OP about roleblock "priorities", which makes me think that he can block a shot. That is a super shitty situation for mafia, and it makes me think that mafia has to go "all in." - What this means is that associations and "building plausible mafia teams" are very accurate analysis here. Mafia is really not going to want to bus or consolidate in this spot, since bussing does not lead to a good result. On Vivax: I have said my piece on his general play. He is lazy and disengaged, which is how he historically plays as scum. The two things that stick out to me in his filter are: 1) The following interaction in which he establishes a Jock + Hapa scumteam. He does so while throwing suspicion at Shockeyy without following up on it: + Show Spoiler + On November 27 2020 22:14 Vivax wrote: Because of his biggish post when EoD approached. Plus keeping up the general nonchalantness when he was under lynch threat, which is his town tone usually. Now that it's answered, your turn. Who are people and are they more than those who wanna lynch Jock? You seem very happy to latch yourself onto Hapa's case here, and then hide behind the reasoning that a majority (is it?) agrees to lynch me. Call both scum equally but prefer one especially eh? The above is him throwing pretty clear shade at Shockeyy. You would expect him to follow up on this suspicion, but he doesn't at all. Instead, his next posts are all about the "Hapa + Jock scumteam" On November 28 2020 19:15 Vivax wrote: And if it turns out he's mafia you just never attempt to lynch him? What would you suggest to solve that with. I still think he's town fwiw. My team would be Hapa + Jock atm. I just don't see how Hapa who is super diligent 'mistakenly' claims a roleblock and blurts out he's blue, and neither do I see how he wouldn't think Jock is mafia. Plus he manufactures very convoluted reasoning in cases against me that could be said in a much simpler way. That's because he's prioritizing the convincing over the validity of his case. Oh yeah that's true. Point taken. When considering the mayor I also took into consideration the read I had on them and I'm not sure if Jock did that. He based it all on who they claimed as their target, and revisiting his filter I don't find strong evidence he had a TR on Grack aside from a +town points comment at some point. So I find it odd he was happy with mayor rayn knowing he was going to kill Grack. Softing suspicion at someone does not make them mafia. However, I believe that showing relative disinterest in Shockey, after very clearly articulating "shade" at him, makes Vivax mafia due to the context of his day one play. Vivax's "story" is that he was a player preoccupied by getting rid of lurkers first. Him ignoring Shockeyy, despite having reasons to suspect him, is incoherent with his story. For context, take a look at the underlined section in the following post. On November 28 2020 21:41 Vivax wrote: Rayn's point on Trfel is essentially that he's hypocritical with how peeps are throwing votes around on available wagons. As for FF it's that he's one of those people. Overall posting seems townie. I still think Hapa started off the day just like a mafia softing blue would. He goes whoops on his RB claim and doesn't have to reveal the role. But that obviously doesn't make him scum by itself. It just seems unusually sloppy for him. What imo makes him possible scum is (aside from various misreps, thinking of him calling my posting useless) his preference for active players in the lynches. And right now he should be thinking I'm bussing Jock and maybe deliver a scenario where that's possible. He seems otherwise content to let FF and Shockeyy remain in the null area, while he should be having a better read on rayn by now. Really good mafia pushes vocal players first and finishes the job in a finale of coinflips. Granted, I can't find anything in his filter that makes me go HA. It's just that I get a feeling of dishonesty from his preferences and the way he goes about me. This is exactly what Vivax is doing in the interaction above. He is telling the story of being concerned about lurkers, but when he finds a reason to be suspicious of a lurker (Shockeyy), he lets it slide in favor of other scumreads. 2) His reads, particularly his read on me, shows a pretty high degree of laziness: On November 28 2020 19:15 Vivax wrote: And if it turns out he's mafia you just never attempt to lynch him? What would you suggest to solve that with. I still think he's town fwiw. My team would be Hapa + Jock atm. I just don't see how Hapa who is super diligent 'mistakenly' claims a roleblock and blurts out he's blue, and neither do I see how he wouldn't think Jock is mafia. Plus he manufactures very convoluted reasoning in cases against me that could be said in a much simpler way. That's because he's prioritizing the convincing over the validity of his case. Oh yeah that's true. Point taken. When considering the mayor I also took into consideration the read I had on them and I'm not sure if Jock did that. He based it all on who they claimed as their target, and revisiting his filter I don't find strong evidence he had a TR on Grack aside from a +town points comment at some point. So I find it odd he was happy with mayor rayn knowing he was going to kill Grack. Underlined for emphasis. At this point in the game, the game is inactive, and I have a 3 page filter. It is not that difficult to read the game and see that I have a very clear scummread on Jock: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=30#591 Despite that, he throws in this comment without even reading. I do not think a player fucking up a case makes them scum necessarily. But I do think this lines up with his scum meta in that it shows that he's really not carefully reading the thread at all. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
The way that TicTock approaches his Vivax read is very scummy. I think it is scummy regardless of Vivax's alignment, but I think it is especially so if Vivax is mafia. The first time that TicTock talks about Vivax is near the end of D1: On November 26 2020 03:44 Tictock wrote: Yolo scumteam Vivax/Hapa Clearly, he has some level of suspicion towards Vivax. On November 27 2020 12:00 Tictock wrote: Yea, rereading Vivax I still don't see him being mafia. Only thing I could see is that he has himself pretty on the sidelines and isn't making much of a splash. However the same could be said of multiple people. I don't really see mafia switching a vote last min or calling to make Grack Pardoner so the role dies either, but that's kinda wifom. Lastly, I think a Vivax/Jock team is unlikely given some of vivax's posts on Jock. He immediately follows this up by "changing his mind" on the Vivax read after "reading the thread". What I find curious and scummy about this post is that despite calling Vivax town, he articulates in the same breath a fantastic reason for why Vivax may be mafia regarding Vivax's relative inactivity/passivity. I will also note that there's no "substance" behind his Vivax read. Despite this, he continues attacking cases against vivax: On November 27 2020 14:41 Tictock wrote: Yea, the more I look at Hapa's case on Vivax I don't think it holds any water. I don't see why a mafia!vivax would push away from a mislynch on someone he has only stated is a null read. Going to look into the Jock stuff tomorrow. On November 28 2020 08:48 Tictock wrote: That looked like a decent catch on Vivax there Trfel but I can't quite substantiate it from Vivax's filter (I see him going back and forth on Jock and even says he'd shoot FF or Sho). Please feel free to show me what I missed. Had some minor shit come up this morning but I should have some time today. I will not be around for deadline tomorrow however. Oh and before I filter, I don't find Rayns case on FF very compelling either. Ff is low effort but his tone has been reading as town to me. @Rayn Do you think FF has a better chance at being mafia then Sho? ...he's happy to attack people's reads against Vivax, but again, no substance or rationale to believe that he's town beyond "these cases are bad". On November 28 2020 16:51 Tictock wrote: I mean I can respect that that read means a lot to you, but I just cannot understand it due to how I play... I think Unfortunately this puts us at something of an impass as my own poorly formed town reads on Vivax/FF (actually I am fairly confident on Vivax but FF is more tonal) leaves me looking at Jock. He again re-iterates his read on being "confident" regarding Vivax. But again, where is the substance? [uWhy[/u] does he read Vivax as mafia? The only serious reading of his filter (see post #2 above) suggests good reasons for Vivax being mafia. Otherwise, TT spends time attacking reasons for why Vivax is mafia rather than providing substance. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
After reading through, I think he's very town. The things that strike out to me are: 1) His willingnness to go down paranoid "rabbit holes" (reads on FF, Slam, etc.) 2) His de-escalation tactics this game, both in the very beginning of the game: On November 24 2020 09:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: If it is about me then i dont take any offense. From the last time i think i did a bit after i figured out you are town. Here i really do not, since i dont think you have given any insight so far. Its okay though, i dont mind, but i also dont like you acting like this for ???? ... and in around my botched roleblock thing: On November 27 2020 06:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay let's cut this discussion for now. I don't think it'll help anymore. ##vote Vivax I do not at all associate scum Rayn with keeping a discussion focused, especially in the 2nd example. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
The narrative is pretty simple. Town-Trfel and Town-Rayn articulate suspicions for why I am mafia. Mafia TicTock and Mafia Vivax sit back, watch it unfold, and add gas to the fire. It is no coincidence that Vivax and TT have posted these longform "anti-hapa" posts when they did - after the chaos of last night when the thread is more calm. Also, if you are town, and you are thinking about individual mafia players as opposed to mafia teams, you are doing yourself and town a great disservice. It is a fucking disaster for scum to bus knowing what we know (and assuming that Trfel is the actual JK, which no one seems to doubt), since Trfel can likely confirm an additional player as town tomorrow if we hit mafia today. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I have my final answer, and the ball is in your court. I am around and willing to answer questions if you are willing to listen. I am town, and even if I am going to be mislynched, I'll be damned if I am going down without a fight. | ||
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Vivax
22080 Posts
As for your Jock scumread, it seemed nonexistent at the time considering he wasn't posting at all but you kept posting with the goal of lynching me. It just doesn't seem quite honest to have most agreeing on someone being mafia who you also claim to be scumreading and then proceed to push the other read instead. If Jock would have been mafia with you, that'd be textbook scumplay. The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
TT's case in summary accuses me of being mafia /w Vivax because somehow I am pushing Vivax without conviction. This is simply disingenuous. Firstly, I have consistently maintained that Vivax is mafia, aside from my end-of-D2 skim. At the end of D2, I read the thread for about 3 minutes and scrawled out a phone-post with a very unconfident vote swap, seeing that the entire thread had been moved off of Vivax. Any expectation that I can have confident reads after a brief skim is simply an unrealistic expectation. I will also note that my vote was effectively meaningless, since Jock already had 5 votes on him. Secondly, I have made it exceptionally clear throughout all of yesterday that I believe Vivax is mafia. My filter focuses on defending myself and answering questions that I'm asked. This may give the "impression" that my posting is not focused on Vivax, but that is simply misleading. If I am predominantly asked questions about other things, I am naturally going to defend myself, and my filer will naturally have more volume of subjects related to my answers to said questions. I will also note that TT's filter looks pretty much exactly what he is accusing me of. Today, he has soft-pushed Vivax the entirety of today while pushing a priority target (myself) as mafia. Secondly, from TT's case: A big part of this stems from Hapa not taking a stance on who he thinks is mafia today. Despite several times saying he thinks Vivax is scum, and a big chunk of his arguments as to why Mafia would not kill him RELIES on Vivax being mafia. TT's entire case against me also relies on Vivax being mafia. Think about the incongruency in holding that opinion. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Vivax' case essentially boils down to: 1) My "blue" claim is suspicious, and; 2) Why am I alive / unroleblocked. I cannot provide an answer for #2 beyond what I've already said. Mafia coulda/woulda/shoulda done/did anything. What is acknowledged by virtually everyone in the thread is that Trfel is the JK and he JK'd me N1. It is plausible for mafia to fear shooting into repeat protection. It is plausible that mafia may have feared that I would bomb Vivax. A lot of things are plausible, and I simply don't know what mafia was thinking. No one in my position can know these things (unless I am mafia). All I can offer is plausible explanations. As for my "blue" claim being suspicious, let me remind the thread that I may have a pretty decent reputation as a town player, but that does not extend to my ability to manage blue roles. I won a goddamn TL Mafia award for a blooper for my mason plays with prplhz in Rockband Mini Mafia way back when: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/369250-rockband-mini-mafia If anyone thinks I have a history of playing "clean", "carefully", or anything other than completely absent-mindedly with blue roles, that is simply incorrect. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
See: "funniest moment" | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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but it seems slightly town-motivated) because it shows that he is here, present, an cares about the game. He didn't really need to do anything, but he's making reads and is invested in them.
