EPTI am Jailkeeper.
I targeted Hapahauli N1, to try and save him from getting shot.. I targeted Fecalfeast N2 to try and roleblock the mafia night kill, however I was roleblocked.
[N]A Mostly Normal Game of Mafia - Page 44
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I am Jailkeeper. I targeted Hapahauli N1, to try and save him from getting shot.. I targeted Fecalfeast N2 to try and roleblock the mafia night kill, however I was roleblocked. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On November 30 2020 08:14 Trfel wrote: Regardless of Hapahauli's alignment, mafia knows there is a jailkeeper because Hapahauli claimed roleblock (town roleblocker is not a possible role). If Hapahauli is town, assuming mafia didn't roleblock him (very likely), then his roleblock claim indicates to them that there is a jailkeeper who did. If Hapahauli is mafia, which is my current belief, then he got roleblocked and thus knows there is a town jailkeeper. why does mafia always know there is a jailkeeper?can you explain it to me as i am dumb and 5y? | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On November 30 2020 07:59 Hapahauli wrote: Ooooh interesting. I am a Mad Hatter. My intent in playing as I did (not running for mayor) was to have a chance of using my role. I targeted Vivax N1 (roleblocked) on the basis of my scumread. I targeted Shockeyy N2, in that if I was killed, I would rather leave town in a position where they had to worry about one less lurker. Plus, if I take someone down with me (even if my read is incorrect), it's still LYLO as opposed to MYLO. Explain this | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On November 30 2020 07:59 Hapahauli wrote: Ooooh interesting. I am a Mad Hatter. My intent in playing as I did (not running for mayor) was to have a chance of using my role. I targeted Vivax N1 (roleblocked) on the basis of my scumread. I targeted Shockeyy N2, in that if I was killed, I would rather leave town in a position where they had to worry about one less lurker. Plus, if I take someone down with me (even if my read is incorrect), it's still LYLO as opposed to MYLO. I do not think Trfel's claim necessarily makes him mafia. I'm also not sure why someone else being roleblocked tonight would confirm "one of me or Trfel" as mafia. More thoughts when I'm home tonight. On November 24 2020 09:38 Hapahauli wrote: oh baby yeah give it to me more and baby you will have it this time! | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 30 2020 08:19 raynpelikoneet wrote: Mafia knows there is a jailkeeper because Hapahauli claimed roleblock.why does mafia always know there is a jailkeeper?can you explain it to me as i am dumb and 5y? If Hapahauli is town, mafia sees a random roleblock claim from town (assuming they didn't roleblock Hapahauli themselves, which is likely; there are a lot of players in the game; if they happened to somehow roleblock Hapahauli as well, then idk). As a result, they know that a townie was roleblocked (they wouldn't lie about it) and that they didn't do it, so there has to be a town roleblocker, the only option being a jailkeeper. If Hapahauli is mafia, assuming mafia didn't roleblock him (which would be a..... strange move to say the least), then mafia!Hapahauli got roleblocked, so he knows there is a town roleblocker. Which again, has to be a jailkeeper. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I explained it. On November 30 2020 08:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why would you be killed Hapa, on N2? I doubt I would be killed. I basically took a 72 hour break from the game barring two super quick skims - one right before the D2 deadline, and one a few hours post-flip before submitting my night action. Also, there's no sense in not using my power, regardless if I think I'm getting shot or not. I did not state in my post that I thought I was getting shot - merely my justification for my actions if I did. | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Obviously throw out everything I'm about to say if we have another blue claim, but 2 mafia + Evil Mastermind is a fucking disaster for town without a lot of blue-role backup. In my view, you're confirmed town with FF. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 08:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: nonono hapa.... you target shockeyy so N3 you can get rid of alurker,. but the game is already over by then. What on earth are you talking about? | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On November 30 2020 07:59 Hapahauli wrote: I targeted Shockeyy N2, in that if I was killed, I would rather leave town in a position where they had to worry about one less lurker. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
##unvote i am dumb | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On November 30 2020 07:05 Trfel wrote: Going back to this. Assuming that me and Hapahauli can't be town together (which I suppose there is still a slim possibility... I never understand setup stuff) and assuming that raynpelikoneet is town (not guaranteed but it'd be one heck of a game for him to be mafia here):It's a role thing, I assume you want me to tell you later? It's important though, so I'll be happy to discuss it whenever you want. Plus as I added in my previous post, my reasoning was slightly flawed. Once Hapahauli claims his "role" I'll work out which option is mathematically superior. One mafia between me and Hapahauli, one mafia between me and Tictock. Mafia is guaranteed to have a roleblocker, as I was roleblocked (unless I'm mafia, but that doesn't affect this I don't think?). Assuming that between me and Hapahauli the mafia percent is 50% each, and same between Vivax and Tictock. (1) Lynch me first, if I'm mafia, then 50/50 for Tictock/Vivax. I don't believe having a Mad Hatter helps here. (2) Lynch me first, if I'm town, gg. (3) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's mafia, if he's the roleblocker, the game is won. I can use my Jailkeeper ability to roleblock one of Tictock/Vivax and claim which. If someone dies at night, then we know the other one is mafia and delivered the night kill. If no one dies, then we gain a mislynch and we can lynch both players. (4) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's mafia but not roleblocker, 50/50 between Vivax and Tictock. (5) Lynch Hapahauli first, if he's town, gg. Case 1: 50% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 25% Case 2: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0% Case 3: 25% likelihood, 100% chance to win after. Total: 25% Case 4: 25% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 25% Case 5: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0% Thus, lynching me first provides a 25% chance to win. Lynching Hapahauli first provides a 50% chance to win. This isn't an argument to lynch Hapahauli instead of me  as funny as that now seems. But together, lynching between me and Hapahauli has a 37.5% chance of winning.(6) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if town, gg (they're the same role, doesn't matter which mathematically speaking). (7) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if mafia, if roleblocker, then we win. I can use Jailkeeper on Hapahauli to roleblock the night kill, gaining a mislynch so both can be lynched. (8) Lynch Vivax or Tictock first, if mafia but not roleblocker, then it's a 50/50 between me and Hapahauli still. Case 6: 50% likelihood, 0% chance to win after. Total: 0% Case 7: 25% likelihood, 100% chance to win after. Total: 25% Case 8: 25% likelihood, 50% chance to win after. Total: 12.5% Thus, lynching between Vivax and Tictock also provides a 37.5% chance to win. And this is entirely meaningless But hey, I had to try. | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 08:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: i want you guys to explanin (hapa and trfel) why this game has 50% of the townies blue? Because if this exact scenario. A "normally" balanced Mini is usually 3 mislynches = loss. With the "evil mastermind" in the setup, 2 mislynches = loss. Town needs a fuckton of help in this seutp. | ||
| ||
