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On November 30 2020 13:17 Trfel wrote:
Two more questions for Hapahauli. First, you said that Vivax's posting had improved recently when you were changing your vote to Jockmcplop. Can you elaborate a bit on that? I liked his response to your case, but beyond that I don't see a significant difference.
I fully admit it was a pretty bad post. I had previously committed to making a brief return at the end of D2 after being preoccupied all weekend with family. I had a quick window, skimmed the thread for like 3 minutes, scrawled a quick post that I didn't think about too much, largely based on thread sentiment moving away from Vivax and onto Jock.
There wasn't any careful thought at all behind the post, and if I were to go back, I wouldn't make it at all. I was in a mentality where I felt disengaged from the thread and therefore felt super unconfident about my reads.
Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush.
When I played with you in Holy Guardians 2, I had sat down and read a lot of your games. I had in my notes:+ Show Spoiler +"TL Database has 2016 game. Probably too old to matter, but relatively inactive/passive play in 2 page filter. 2020 game in Emergency Quarantine Mafia - persona is more direct, confident, and aggressive. Still has bouts of "sadness", but more in a "pouty" way rather than an "unconfident" way. Town persona tends to be much more "unconfident" and "self-aware".
As a result of the notes, I had you pegged as town super early and confidently in HG2. This game as well. Although to add to meta reasons, I think your JK claim is super town and horrifically risky to come from mafia. No reason to risk a binary lynch like that, or no reason to open a can of worms in the event of a 4th blue claim.
And I suppose third, I'm wondering why you are back to scumreading Vivax, but I suppose I can wait for your filter dives to finish.
Answered in posting above.
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I find it noteworthy that on D1, when generally lynching lurkers makes the most sense, you made that a reason for me being mafia.
While on later days when there's generally more info around, not only do you sort of insist I should be further pursuing that strategy (saying that it was scummy I dropped Shockeyy in favour of Jock, who btw aside from things I pointed out that made me think he was scum, could be considered a lurker anyway before we knew he went completely afk), but in the rushed post afterwards, post-flip I think, you thought my reasoning made sense.
Reads more like capitulation to me after you failed to get me lynched instead.
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On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote:
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The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness.
Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up.
Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda.
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On December 01 2020 02:00 Vivax wrote:
I find it noteworthy that on D1, when generally lynching lurkers makes the most sense, you made that a reason for me being mafia.
While on later days when there's generally more info around, not only do you sort of insist I should be further pursuing that strategy (saying that it was scummy I dropped Shockeyy in favour of Jock, who btw aside from things I pointed out that made me think he was scum, could be considered a lurker anyway before we knew he went completely afk), but in the rushed post afterwards, post-flip I think, you thought my reasoning made sense.
Reads more like capitulation to me after you failed to get me lynched instead.
I am not going to argue with mafia. You can characterize or ignore my answers however you want.
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On December 01 2020 02:06 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote:
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The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up. Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda.
In theory he shouldn't have a particular preference for either of us when it's teams he's talking about.
And whether you want to talk to me or an invisible audience is irrelevant, but it seems we're the only ones in the thread atm and the only thing that changes is the pronoun used.
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On December 01 2020 02:13 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 02:06 Hapahauli wrote:On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote:
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The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up. Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda. In theory he shouldn't have a particular preference for either of us when it's teams he's talking about. And whether you want to talk to me or an invisible audience is irrelevant, but it seems we're the only ones in the thread atm and the only thing that changes is the pronoun used.
Who is my most likely scumbuddy?
Of the two options, at the moment I think the rayn + Hapa world is more likely purely based on TT delivering analysis on me and Hapa, and because I believe that at this point, there is a greater incentive for mafia to simply bus. On a Hapa mafia flip, rayn would probably get an edge against TT tomorrow.
This is not a sufficient answer at this point in the game. It is convenient and scummy to proffer one serious scumread and fail to do any significant analysis on who the teammate of that player is.
All of this analysis is surface level and incredibly lazy. If I am mafia, both Rayn and TT are bussing the shit out of me.
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On December 01 2020 02:22 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 02:13 Vivax wrote:On December 01 2020 02:06 Hapahauli wrote:On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote:
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The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up. Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda. In theory he shouldn't have a particular preference for either of us when it's teams he's talking about. And whether you want to talk to me or an invisible audience is irrelevant, but it seems we're the only ones in the thread atm and the only thing that changes is the pronoun used. Who is my most likely scumbuddy? Show nested quote +Of the two options, at the moment I think the rayn + Hapa world is more likely purely based on TT delivering analysis on me and Hapa, and because I believe that at this point, there is a greater incentive for mafia to simply bus. On a Hapa mafia flip, rayn would probably get an edge against TT tomorrow. This is not a sufficient answer at this point in the game. It is convenient and scummy to proffer one serious scumread and fail to do any significant analysis on who the teammate of that player is. All of this analysis is surface level and incredibly lazy. If I am mafia, both Rayn and TT are bussing the shit out of me.
In my opinion TT doesn't look like he made up his mind, while rayn is very aggressively pushing you. They're not even close in how they are handling their scumreads.
That said, I think rayn is more likely mafia out of him and TT. You also keep insisting that bussing isn't worth it, which I disagree with. Bussing would probably be very worth it today and put Trfel in a difficult situation where in my scenario he's jailing TT. Not to mention that Trfel could still pull off a hero jail even if we mislynch.
And the Shockeyy kill also tells me that mafia is hoping to mislynch me while it's probably you and rayn. Obviously rayn can't just press for my lynch with a straight face, so he's going for the bus play instead. It just wouldn't look good for you if I got killed, especially after claiming you had a role.
I'm not really willing to entertain a TT + rayn world and think the confidence with which you have been pushing me since D1 speaks more for a strategic read than an honest scumread. While my activity has admittedly been at times lackluster, that doesn't remove the impression that your read on me has been very static.
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On December 01 2020 02:39 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 02:22 Hapahauli wrote:On December 01 2020 02:13 Vivax wrote:On December 01 2020 02:06 Hapahauli wrote:On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote:
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The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up. Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda. In theory he shouldn't have a particular preference for either of us when it's teams he's talking about. And whether you want to talk to me or an invisible audience is irrelevant, but it seems we're the only ones in the thread atm and the only thing that changes is the pronoun used. Who is my most likely scumbuddy? Of the two options, at the moment I think the rayn + Hapa world is more likely purely based on TT delivering analysis on me and Hapa, and because I believe that at this point, there is a greater incentive for mafia to simply bus. On a Hapa mafia flip, rayn would probably get an edge against TT tomorrow. This is not a sufficient answer at this point in the game. It is convenient and scummy to proffer one serious scumread and fail to do any significant analysis on who the teammate of that player is. All of this analysis is surface level and incredibly lazy. If I am mafia, both Rayn and TT are bussing the shit out of me. In my opinion TT doesn't look like he made up his mind, while rayn is very aggressively pushing you. They're not even close in how they are handling their scumreads. That said, I think rayn is more likely mafia out of him and TT. You also keep insisting that bussing isn't worth it, which I disagree with. Bussing would probably be very worth it today and put Trfel in a difficult situation where in my scenario he's jailing TT. Not to mention that Trfel could still pull off a hero jail even if we mislynch. And the Shockeyy kill also tells me that mafia is hoping to mislynch me while it's probably you and rayn. Obviously rayn can't just press for my lynch with a straight face, so he's going for the bus play instead. It just wouldn't look good for you if I got killed, especially after claiming you had a role. I'm not really willing to entertain a TT + rayn world and think the confidence with which you have been pushing me since D1 speaks more for a strategic read than an honest scumread. While my activity has admittedly been at times lackluster, that doesn't remove the impression that your read on me has been very static.
Getting anything resembling substantive analysis from you is like squeezing a lemon.
What started as "Hapa + Rayn are the likely scumteam because Rayn is bussing Hapa" is all of a sudden "well, TT is bussing Hapa, but not as hard". I have to squeeze the details from Vivax as if I was squeezing a lemon with my bare hands. That is not town Vivax.
Also, the last part of this is worth re-quoting:
I'm not really willing to entertain a TT + rayn world and think the confidence with which you have been pushing me since D1 speaks more for a strategic read than an honest scumread. While my activity has admittedly been at times lackluster, that doesn't remove the impression that your read on me has been very static.
Apparently, my read on Vivax is static. Funny enough, Vivax has been reading me as mafia for a longer period of time than I have been reading him as mafia.
From Day 1:
https://tl.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=190&topic_id=565699
https://tl.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=470&topic_id=565699
Being hypocritical, stupid, or not reading the thread is not alignment indicative in a general sense. However, it fits the profile of a lazy-mafia Vivax.
What Vivax's case boils down to is an OMGUS. "Town-Hapa wouldn't claim blue like that. Town-Hapa wouldn't scum-read me like that". It may be the startings of suspicion and questions, but that is not a strong LYLO case.
Despite this, Vivax is absolutely sure that I am mafia despite no evidence of him doing any significant legwork in reading the thread, questioning me, or looking through filters.
Where is the paranoia in Vivax's play?
Where is the emotion?
Where is the general "giving-a-shit"?
There is none, and the lack of those things speak volumes about his play. Vivax is content to make a few stiff and sarcastic quips, plop his vote down, and sit back. And that's mafia-play here to a T.
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For perspective, FecalFeast, who spent the majority of D1 trolling, and spent the remainder of the game knowing that he had a way to instantly confirm himself as town with a Bodyguard claim has cared more and been more active than Vivax.
Think about that.
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Completely missed this:
On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote:
My lurker concern was centered on D1. Pointing out that Shockeyy seemed very eager to follow your points has nothing to do with lurkers. He dropped it, I dropped it.
As for your Jock scumread, it seemed nonexistent at the time considering he wasn't posting at all but you kept posting with the goal of lynching me. It just doesn't seem quite honest to have most agreeing on someone being mafia who you also claim to be scumreading and then proceed to push the other read instead. If Jock would have been mafia with you, that'd be textbook scumplay.
The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness.
Emphasis added. The entire point behind my longer Vivax post in #1031 is that it makes zero sense for town-Vivax to just "drop it" when the lurkiest player in the game (Shockeyy) does something he perceives as suspicious. That is incongruent with the idea of pursuing lurkers.
Vivax's play provides lip service to "going after lurkers", but when he is provided an opportunity to go after the lurkiest player in the game, his attitude is "he dropped it", and therefore "I dropped it." That doesn't make any fucking sense. Instead, Vivax engaged Shockeyy a little bit when Shockeyy was suspicious of him, and when Shockeyy dropped suspicions of Vivax, Vivax's "job" as mafia was done.
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On December 01 2020 01:44 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush. When I played with you in Holy Guardians 2, I had sat down and read a lot of your games. I had in my notes: + Show Spoiler +"TL Database has 2016 game. Probably too old to matter, but relatively inactive/passive play in 2 page filter. 2020 game in Emergency Quarantine Mafia - persona is more direct, confident, and aggressive. Still has bouts of "sadness", but more in a "pouty" way rather than an "unconfident" way. Town persona tends to be much more "unconfident" and "self-aware". As a result of the notes, I had you pegged as town super early and confidently in HG2. This game as well. Although to add to meta reasons, I think your JK claim is super town and horrifically risky to come from mafia. No reason to risk a binary lynch like that, or no reason to open a can of worms in the event of a 4th blue claim. Claim aside, I guess I'm curious about your characterization of my play. You described my mafia play as "passive," can I ask what that means to you? Because I think my mafia play is more active, more aggressive than my town play. I don't know what to do when I have no read to push, so I'm always pushing something. Over-aggression is a problem with my scum play I need to fix.
I suppose maybe it doesn't mean a ton if this is a perception you had from before the game, it just feels weird that your strong townread of me seems based off of a faulty scum meta? Or am I missing something?
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On December 01 2020 04:57 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 01:44 Hapahauli wrote:Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush. When I played with you in Holy Guardians 2, I had sat down and read a lot of your games. I had in my notes: + Show Spoiler +"TL Database has 2016 game. Probably too old to matter, but relatively inactive/passive play in 2 page filter. 2020 game in Emergency Quarantine Mafia - persona is more direct, confident, and aggressive. Still has bouts of "sadness", but more in a "pouty" way rather than an "unconfident" way. Town persona tends to be much more "unconfident" and "self-aware". As a result of the notes, I had you pegged as town super early and confidently in HG2. This game as well. Although to add to meta reasons, I think your JK claim is super town and horrifically risky to come from mafia. No reason to risk a binary lynch like that, or no reason to open a can of worms in the event of a 4th blue claim. Claim aside, I guess I'm curious about your characterization of my play. You described my mafia play as "passive," can I ask what that means to you? Because I think my mafia play is more active, more aggressive than my town play. I don't know what to do when I have no read to push, so I'm always pushing something. Over-aggression is a problem with my scum play I need to fix. I suppose maybe it doesn't mean a ton if this is a perception you had from before the game, it just feels weird that your strong townread of me seems based off of a faulty scum meta? Or am I missing something?
I think "passive" was a misleading word-choice. As you see from my notes, I do perceive your scum play as more "direct, confident, and aggressive". By "passive", I mean that while I perceive your posting as more "aggressive", I do not perceive you as a risk-taker or gambler, which is what your JK claim would require.
The way I approach meta reads is in two steps:
1) Build/understand a general profile of that person in general, both from a personality perspective and gameplay perspective.
2) Look at differences in scum/town games and try to identify how those differences are explained by gameplay and personality traits.
For you, my general profile for you is that you are intelligent and carefully read the thread, but you are prone to negative swings in your mood.
When you're town, those mood-swings manifest itself into a lack of confidence, self awareness, and wishy-washiness. For example, you tend to post long threads of analysis to bolster your confidence, in an effort to boost your confidence. Sometimes it works, and often times, you backtrack on your own analysis within the same post.
When you're scum, you tend to lash-out much more in your mood-swings. These two posts stuck out to me from your last scum-game:
On March 27 2020 11:01 Trfel wrote:
GlowingBear and everyone else, care to respond to the actual points I've raised instead of meaningless nonsense?
Getting kinda sick of this.
Yes, I'm confused because one of my main scumreads is voting for the other one. I'm not confident enough in my reads to vote, given the circumstance. If you have any actual help or comments on my reads to help sort this out, I would really appreciate it.
Otherwise, BUGGER OFF.
On March 28 2020 02:27 Trfel wrote:I'm so sick of getting killed Day 1 for nonsense, garbage reasons, it happened the last two games. Yet again, no one has responded to the actual thoughts I've been sharing, people are picking on meaningless semantics. And there's a ridiculously scummy person (KelsierSC) who definitely deserves to be killed but no one cares. He "redeemed himself" with a single post that contained actual thinking: Show nested quote +On March 27 2020 20:14 KelsierSC wrote:Trfel Not a huge amount to write about him that hasn't been said. I think agreeing with HF isn't scummy it's a lot of writing with quotes and everything. The part I don't like is how he throws on some additional fire that actually says nothing about my alignment. feels like this is added on so it doesn't look like a blatant sheep These don't line up. I get that agreeing with someone's reads and reading them as town are different things, but in this case KelsierSC didn't like LightningStrike's logic or read results and never mentioned a positive thing. Just read the posts yourself, I still don't understand AT ALL how KelsierSC decided to townread LightningStrike there. There was nothing about the conversation that "felt ok." I think his palmar case is ok but I don't recall Palmar being good on D1 but his point about it not being a weekend has merit and palmar's lack of direction is a fair comment. I do like his comment about palmar being an unlikely D1 lynch so vote me instead, that's a pretty town mindset. Finally he made some non commital stuff about sentinel , scum lean but holding back. I think trefl is good enough for a D1 pass. I was never non-comittal about [UoN]Sentinel, I never said he was a scum lean. I never said I was holding back. I said I wanted to wait for more information and see how his play evolved, which made sense given the circumstance. In this post KelsierSC even says that my two main pushes/scumreads, comprising the majority of my play this game, are both ok. Yet he still thinks I'm mafia. He's picking on semantics, making up reasons, and has absolutely NOT redeemed his earlier play.
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Now I can nerd out and go on-and-on-and-on about meta. I am mal-adjusted enough to enjoy that.
But as a thought experiment - let's say my meta read is based on some fault or horrid misunderstanding of your play. Does a bad meta read make someone mafia? I think not, which makes this discussion kinda pointless in a game context.
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I have a few thoughts but nothing more to really add on top of what's already been said. Of course this changes if people suspect me, but given that no one seems to currently, it feels more valuable for me to watch what happens undisturbed.
With that said:
##Vote: Hapahauli
I can certainly understand why Hapahauli, as a claimed blue, wouldn't be killed. But it's so hard for me to understand why he wouldn't be roleblocked. And while I'm uncertain, I doubt the presence of three blues in the setup, especially given the bodyguard mechanic.
With that said: would someone be willing to explain to me what raynpelikoneet is saying about Hapahauli the past few pages that's so condemning? As I said on the last page, it seems to come down to role mechanics that I thought worked differently, but I seem to be horribly misreading.
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On December 01 2020 05:09 Hapahauli wrote:
Now I can nerd out and go on-and-on-and-on about meta. I am mal-adjusted enough to enjoy that.
But as a thought experiment - let's say my meta read is based on some fault or horrid misunderstanding of your play. Does a bad meta read make someone mafia? I think not, which makes this discussion kinda pointless in a game context. Yes, that's fair. Thanks, that does make sense.
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I see the mechanics of this game are quite the uphill battle for me.
All and all, I cannot convince people not to consider the mechanics condemning. What's said has already been said in regards to blue density and setup. GreyMist is a guy that likes hosting "interesting" setups (see all of his setups, ever). This setup seemed designed to create a situation where the Evil Mastermind runs rampant and chaotic through the town. And that is how the game was balanced, though GreyMist's plans were foiled due to the D1 lynch.
I urge people to take a step back and look at the filters and players ignoring the mechanics. Simply scum-hunt. If you do, you will see that Vivax and TT are playing a mafia-sided game.
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Trfel, out of curiosity, why weren't you suspicious of me directly after my roleblock fiasco? A large portion of your read doubts the "3 blues" in the setup. From your perspective, you knew that I was the "3rd blue" from early D2 and onward.
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On December 01 2020 05:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Trfel, out of curiosity, why weren't you suspicious of me directly after my roleblock fiasco? A large portion of your read doubts the "3 blues" in the setup. From your perspective, you knew that I was the "3rd blue" from early D2 and onward. I was initially thinking that there could be three blues in the setup. It was the discussion (largely with raynpelikoneet) about blue claims that mostly changed my mind about that. Realizing that the bodyguard effectively counted as a confirmed town and that the Evil Mastermind would likely take a town, and three blues, makes the "special towns" (blues and bodyguard) outnumber the normal towns. It just feels really unlikely to me.
Despite my vote having been placed, I'm still around and here to talk about anything anyone deems productive.
Unfortunately, it seems that only Hapahauli is around currently, and I'm not sure how much more I have to discuss with him currently, we've already talked a lot is all. More interested in talking with Vivax and Tictock. Though, @Hapahauli, of course I'm more than happy to talk and I'm still looking into stuff.
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In addition to the previous post: I'm going to go and get some food and then try and figure out who the second mafia is (between Vivax and Tictock).
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On December 01 2020 05:29 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 05:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Trfel, out of curiosity, why weren't you suspicious of me directly after my roleblock fiasco? A large portion of your read doubts the "3 blues" in the setup. From your perspective, you knew that I was the "3rd blue" from early D2 and onward. I was initially thinking that there could be three blues in the setup. It was the discussion (largely with raynpelikoneet) about blue claims that mostly changed my mind about that. Realizing that the bodyguard effectively counted as a confirmed town and that the Evil Mastermind would likely take a town, and three blues, makes the "special towns" (blues and bodyguard) outnumber the normal towns. It just feels really unlikely to me.
Despite my vote having been placed, I'm still around and here to talk about anything anyone deems productive. Unfortunately, it seems that only Hapahauli is around currently, and I'm not sure how much more I have to discuss with him currently, we've already talked a lot is all. More interested in talking with Vivax and Tictock. Though, @Hapahauli, of course I'm more than happy to talk and I'm still looking into stuff.
Why is this setup not "balanced" if the Evil Mastermind takes a blue on N1?
Or the town Mayor?
I think a lot of your discussion discounts the sheer power of the role and the potential for chaos. If I am reading your post correctly, you also seem to be implying that the Evil Mastermind can only convert a VT, which is inaccurate to my knowledge.
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EPT
