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On November 30 2020 11:02 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 10:28 Tictock wrote:
Like I know you are down to a pool of Rayn/Vivax/Myself, assuming I read ok
So I suppose I would have to accept a Rayn/Vivax world I've already shit up this thread enough over the past few hours. Not committing to any reads until I have had a chance to deep dive the thread, especially the days that I missed. Otherwise, I keep ping-ponging back and forth on how suspicious I am of Rayn and it isn't productive.
Is that a fairly accurate view though?
Partially just making sure I understand your PoV, and partially as I feel that in your position you have assumed Trfel is town a bit easily when it should be possible for him to be mafiaRB.
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On November 30 2020 11:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So am i mafia or not?
Hapa.
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I am gonna fucking ruin this mafia shit this day. You will see.
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But make people answer me, pleasel, if yoyu are town.
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On November 30 2020 11:07 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 11:02 Hapahauli wrote:On November 30 2020 10:28 Tictock wrote:
Like I know you are down to a pool of Rayn/Vivax/Myself, assuming I read ok
So I suppose I would have to accept a Rayn/Vivax world I've already shit up this thread enough over the past few hours. Not committing to any reads until I have had a chance to deep dive the thread, especially the days that I missed. Otherwise, I keep ping-ponging back and forth on how suspicious I am of Rayn and it isn't productive. Is that a fairly accurate view though? Partially just making sure I understand your PoV, and partially as I feel that in your position you have assumed Trfel is town a bit easily when it should be possible for him to be mafiaRB.
It is mechanically possible for Trfel to be a mafia RB. However, I think that is very unlikely. For that to be true, Trfel has to be willing to get into a binary lynch situation with me. And that's so out of line with how I perceive his mafia play and personality in general. I also think that town JK makes the game a hell of a lot more balanced than only 2 blue roles.
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On November 30 2020 11:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So am i mafia or not?
My opinion changes every 5 minutes. I also can't read the damn thread with any focus if I keep getting peppered with questions. For full transparency, I believe you are more likely to flip mafia than TT at this point. As stated many times previously, will update tomorrow morning.
However, I think Vivax is the most plausible mafia player left. He seems to be playing very lazy and disengaged, which is right on with his normal scum meta.
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Canada11355 Posts
wtf im reading now how did this many posts happen I was running a d&d session and shopping lol
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Well, this game sure got active quickly 
I'll try and do some more filter dives with this new information.... but at least currently, I find myself believing Hapahauli. As strange of a setup as that would make it.
Yet I also believe raynpelikoneet. And I believe Tictock. And to some extent, Vivax 
But I agree that Vivax is the most likely mafia. He has a three page filter by Day 3, and unless he's going to contradict himself, the entire first page was preliminary reads that were canceled as soon as he caught up. I'm not even super confident he's mafia, but that's where I am inclined to look first.
Something else that makes me think is that raynpelikoneet does have somewhat of a history (at least, as far as I know) of "unexpected" night kills. But I don't really see the need for him to do that this game, even as a medic dodge the kills this game have been far off what one might expect. And raynpelikoneet has his bodyguard as a perfect excuse for surviving, no need for a weird night kill.
Honestly at this point I may just give up trying to read raynpelikoneet. He can play too well as mafia, while I am able to catch him sometimes he can also completely fool me other times. I might just have to try and read Tictock and Hapahauli to POE who the last mafia is...
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On November 27 2020 06:11 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2020 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am thinking if i can actually solve the game right now. Mechanically speaking, a VT. It would mean that in the remainder of the town, there would be 1-2 blue claims (given the 2 scum + evil mastermind, there is likely another town blue floating around to give the town a chance), in addition to 1 confirmed bodyguard claim. Pretty hard for scum to overcome. Hapahauli, do explain? If I'm reading this correctly (which I am unsure of), it seems to contradict your recent statements that this is a hard game for town and that justifies having three power roles. Could be wrong, but I'd just like an explanation eventually please!
@Fecalfeast and whoever else may be around, let me know if you want to talk. I assume Hapahauli wants to do his deep analysis xD
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That post was made after Slam flipped parity cop. So I’m saying there that in addition to the flipped blue, there are likely 1-2 extra roles (and likely 2, hence 3 roles in total).
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Two more questions for Hapahauli. First, you said that Vivax's posting had improved recently when you were changing your vote to Jockmcplop. Can you elaborate a bit on that? I liked his response to your case, but beyond that I don't see a significant difference.
Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush.
And I suppose third, I'm wondering why you are back to scumreading Vivax, but I suppose I can wait for your filter dives to finish.
In other news, I am still a bit confused as to why mafia didn't roleblock Hapahauli, if Hapahauli is town. Personally, in setups like this where there is no veteran (or the veteran can't be roleblocked to remove the power), I don't value the roleblock very highly at all (until there are blue claims). Thus, I would have 100% used the roleblock on Hapahauli N2, even if I was confident that he would be jailed.
But I get that maybe not everyone is that way. So I wonder, did I give away somehow that I was blue? Giving mafia incentive to try and roleblock me instead? I attempted to not do so, though mafia has shown a skill for blue hunting.
I definitely understand mafia not wanting to take the risk of shooting town!Hapahauli and getting the shot blocked. And I can see a slight risk of shooting me or Vivax (again, assuming town) and getting it blocked. Shooting into the remaining players is very unlikely to get blocked by the known jailkeeper, and has a chance at taking down the bodyguard. But why not throw a roleblock on Hapahauli in this case? That's what confuses me.
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On November 30 2020 13:16 Hapahauli wrote:
That post was made after Slam flipped parity cop. So I’m saying there that in addition to the flipped blue, there are likely 1-2 extra roles (and likely 2, hence 3 roles in total). Yeah, that's what I thought you meant. I just am currently having trouble reading it that way, but I guess it really doesn't make sense as 1-2 blue roles in total, so I guess I'll take your word for it. Thanks.
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And yes, I can definitely see Vivax being mafia here. I don't like his Day 1 at all, throwing suspicion at Alakaslam for a page and then retracting it for no reason once he's caught up. And even though I've criticized it, in retrospect I think Hapahauli's point about Vivax's lynch pool is actually valid (just worded differently). Vivax didn't include Grackaroni in his lynch pool, while he definitely should have. That lack od inclusion makes no sense and feels arbitrary. But much more importantly, Vivax never tried to figure out who was mafia or seemed to even care, he wasn't really doing much of anything. I have no idea what he was trying to accomplish.
And third, his Day 2 scumread on Hapahauli. He said he didn't like the push onto Jockmcplop because there were no other wagons but didn't do anything to consider otherwise (he wasn't the only one who did this but I have higher expectations for paranoid, tinfoil, town!Vivax). And Vivax seemed okay with no one believing him that Hapahauli was mafia. Vivax's willingness to openly call out and suspect an un-cc'd blue and then not care when nothing happens and not do anything with the read seems off. It's fine to voice suspicions, but he went far beyond that without actually making any move to do anything to Hapahauli.
Still need to read Tictock and raynpelikoneet, gonna take a break though.
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I am around but am kinda waiting to see how a couple things play out.
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On November 26 2020 05:04 Tictock wrote:
Lol, good shot.
Also he wasn't mafia so I was right too! This post by Tictock seems out of place given that he had recently said he was taking back his "don't kill Grackaroni" stance:
On November 26 2020 04:39 Tictock wrote:Humm I'm actually gunna take back that "dont kill Grack" thing His filter is pretty meh, and this post feels odd Show nested quote +On November 26 2020 02:54 Grackaroni wrote:
The thread seems to be divided into two camps atm.
There's a Rayn camp where Rayn townreads Jock/Slam/Vivax/Slam/Me with lot of people in that group townreading or more or less trusting each other.
Then there's a Trfel camp with Trfel having Rayn as his primary suspect and Hapa/ShoCkeyy voting Trfel mainly I believe to try to get rid of me.
Obviously I'd rather we consolidate on anyone outside of Trfel for Mayor and hope that Rayn's grasp on the game so far is good. (I think it is) Posting this from my phone and switching back over to my computer. Same things jump out to me about Tictock's filter, specifically his Day 2 reads about Hapahauli raynpelikoneet, and (most notably) Vivax. Tictock's explained them all and part of me thinks the explanation makes sense, but part of me still is unsure...
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I was late at work. I am nevwr fonna be late at work again for rhis shit so my vote stands and goodbye. Trfel is lol.
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Tictock
on Hapahauli:
+ Show Spoiler [analysis] +On November 26 2020 03:37 Tictock wrote:
Honestly reading the more recent bit of Hapa's filter I can see him being mafia.
His vote for Trfel as mayor is a bit weird and weak, says he is the "logical" choice. Scumread on Grack due to him campaigning for mayor and "soft-pushing" Trfel. I have a hard time believing Hapa has this good of a townread on Trfel.
Also does not seem that he has sus on Rayn so I'm not clear why Hapa would prefer Trfel>Rayn On November 26 2020 03:39 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 00:41 Hapahauli wrote:
Re: Mayor - my mayoral preference would be Vivax or Rayn if I could confidently read them as town. I still desire to absolve myself of mayoral responsibility.
In general, we should be voting for someone who 1) is valuable to the town if alive, and 2) has a reasonable chance of getting shot on N1. Slam does not fit category 2, even if he looks super town. Even if Grack starts looking more town, he also does not fit category 2.
Of the players so far, I think Trfel fits both categories the best.
##Vote Trfel .... What? So Hapa has just ridden this rather than develop better reads on either Vivax or Rayn? On November 28 2020 10:03 Tictock wrote:
Honestly I am not totally sure how to read them well. I have only played with Hapa once and I was mafia so him not feeling as obviuse town as I was him that game is not a good basis for a read. Still that feeling and not really liking/agreeing with his reads this game has me a little sus. On November 29 2020 09:35 Tictock wrote:
Damn, that sucks.
I talked about my Hapa read with you already Trfel? Plus the roleblock thing seemed legit, even though you could argue Hapa was using that as cover to dodge the game. It's a weird time though and we just lynched a townie who had disappeared so prob not a good metric. It's not blatantly scummy or anything, I just really don't like this progression. The wording at the end there too, "the roleblock thing seemed legit," feels off. Why wouldn't it be legitimate, and especially since this is Night 2, wouldn't it be "seems" instead of "seemed"? It feels like he's trying to come up with justifications for his reads instead of explain what he actually thinks. I know this is a slight thing, but it seems that everyone is playing well (scum included), so slight things are the best I have.
Basically, day 2 Tictock was advocating lynching Jockmcplop (makes sense). He was also suspicious of Hapahauli and raynpelikoneet, to varying degrees. I note that his reads seem to always go after the "easy targets." He pushed the lynch for Jockmcplop all of Day 2, and then once Jockmcplop died, immediately started advocating for lynching Fecalfeast. While the whole time harboring suspicions against raynpelioneet and Hapahauli.
I don't know why he ended up townreading raynpelikoneet so strongly today either, given that he was suspicious of him earlier?
Nothing's too strong. I can't help but notice that Tictock continues to townread Vivax and dismiss the cases against Vivax, but again I'm awful at associations so I probably shouldn't go down that road. But even if nothing is super solid, there are still several question marks that make me suspicious of Tictock.
I know I'm babbling, but the way he POE'd himself down to Jockmcplop and ShoCkeyy, and then lightly townread ShoCkeyy and never mentioned that he could be scum again (how is he so sure?), and then lightly townread Fecalfeast, and then jumped immediately onto Fecalfeast after Jockmcplop flipped feels very mafia-motivated to me. It doesn't feel like he has the uncertainty of someone who is really trying to figure things out, or the suspicion of someone who isn't sure.
Maybe that's the better way to put it. There's a dissonance there. He's suspicious about some things (ex: raynpelikoneet and Hapahauli, even with the blue claim), but certain and decisive about lynching down the path of least resistance. Something like that, anyway.
Vivax and Tictock, current guess.
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Vote hapahauli, make tl mafia great again.
Just as good as a post like any other, i tild you trffel.
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EPT
