[N] Uninspired Mafia
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Pandain
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Also to be honest I think it's good to just start voting someone to get people talking. Otherwise we would just never talk until like the last 12 hours of the day. | ||
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But the game has been on for like 15 hours or something and there's about a page and a half. I want to get more people talking. Plus how the game activity goes in the beginning can have a big effect later on. If people barely talk during the first 24 hours, they will probably barely talk later on and the game will be terrible and impossible to play. | ||
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On May 01 2019 01:14 VisceraEyes wrote: I want Pandain to come in here and explain himself! God damnit GIMME!!! Hahahaha no worries dude. Of course he was my strongest read but there was also like a page total of posts are that time. So of course it was a malleable read. If that sounds weak it's because it is. I'm not gonna have a strong read at all probably day 1 | ||
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I'm going to vote Rels because he's done absolutely nothing, and he did the same exact thing last time when I was mafia with him. | ||
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Also this is concerning: [QUOTE]On May 01 2019 11:23 Jockmcplop wrote: [QUOTE]On May 01 2019 10:35 wherebugsgo wrote: [QUOTE]On May 01 2019 10:29 Jockmcplop wrote: [QUOTE]On May 01 2019 08:54 Holyflare wrote: Oh well nothing more to add really. I think jock is way out of character and the town read(s) are pretty unjustified here. [/QUOTE] Out of character compared to when I was mafia?[/QUOTE] You gonna ignore my previous post? You should answer this, and don't even think about skipping any of the questions: [quote]Can you define what makes people suspicious? What types of things are suspicious and why would they be indicators someone is mafia instead of town? Have you read Incognito's guide? What do you think your #1 priority should be if you are a townie?[/quote] Regardless of your alignment, at your current rate, you should know you're going to be dead. In addition to that, let's see your reads.[/QUOTE] #1 priority as town for me is finding scum. And then proceedes to be super lukewarm about scum reads and doesn't scumhunt at all. | ||
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I am confused about why Jock suddenly became an asshole in this thread when the last two games he was super nice and if anything apologetic. Also his blogs are fun to read so I'm sort of shocked. I don't think he's a bad lynch and might switch to him if the votes are close. Also this is concerning: On May 01 2019 11:23 Jockmcplop wrote: #1 priority as town for me is finding scum. And then proceedes to be super lukewarm about scum reads and doesn't scumhunt at all. | ||
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On May 01 2019 23:39 Vivax wrote: MZ stuff was just bleh and uninteresting. Why does it make him mafia if he says that he's glad nobody claimed scum yet?It's a wonky thing to say and that's about it. Maybe Bugs and FF can explain how saying that makes people scum cause I don't see it. And if you're going to say that town MZ should be glad that people scumclaim, imagine how glad mafia MZ would be if it was townies scumclaiming like in 99 % of the cases, given that you are implying you would vote them off for those claims. In summary, wary of FF cause not shitposting and looking more like a serious mafia FF with that vote. What is suspicious is when he says that he would lynch someone if they claimed scum, which is really stupid. But I think he said this last game and he was town so I guess it's null. | ||
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Super strong town lean on Koshi as well for his carefree posting. They just seem townie. | ||
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I think Jock is a good lynch but I'm keeping my vote on Rels at the moment. This is exactly what he did in End of the World as mafia (as you and I both know), and I also don't like his only post that said "me too!". It just seemed fake to me. Furthermore, and maybe more importantly, it pressures him to come on in and talk. I would love if more people voted him if only for this reason. Sincerely, Pandain | ||
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On May 01 2019 07:13 Grackaroni wrote: I think Pandain should actually be pretty easy to read judging from the last two games he played. He was a lot more held back in the scum game and in the town game I thought he was a pretty easy town read. What's your read on me now Grack? And do you have any thoughts on Rayn, he's someone I'm watching eagerly. | ||
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On May 02 2019 02:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: You really think mafia claims this and then does the complete opposite? You'd need to be really dumb if you didn't realise this is exactly where it gets you and i wouldn't say that's a really good strategy. But it's okay, maybe the 70% of the game can talk about something else after D1 since you're gonna have your lynch. Mafia literally does it all the time. It's precisely inherently mafia to say good things and then not do them or follow them | ||
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On May 02 2019 04:20 raynpelikoneet wrote: You should pick they Eywa one from last game, i laughed here for like 20 mins after the post. Which one is that? All I remember from last game was that jock post | ||
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On May 02 2019 07:14 Holyflare wrote: This guy is suspect numero uno. Anybody that uses the phrase "that's scummy regardless of Jock's alignment" is a guy that has tmi and makes it want to look like he's weighing up his options. Let us also not forget that he agreed with all the points on Jock, fought against rayn that jock looked scummy, said rayn was scummy for not trying to save his town read and then dropped it all to try and shenanigan with rayn. Let us also not forget that Pandain wanted to lynch rels (based on incorrect meta that was highlighted several times already) despite a wagon building on Jock, his also scum read, to make rels active again. Then when that didn't take off, Pandain, master of misdirection, avoided joining the jock wagon (his scum read) again for terrible shenanigans. Then when Jock, his scum read, flipped town (after pandain said he's probably town for no discernable reason why arguing that he was still mafia) Pandain decides to call the entire wagon on Jock, his scum read, and also maybe town read, mafia. No thanks. You mafia mate. Lynch Pandain when I'm gone. Decent argument but unfortunately it fails to keep in mind one key thing. It's day 1, and any of my reads are weak. So yes, I agreed with Jock playing weird and even suspiciously. I stated as such and even stated that I don't think he was a bad lynch. But that doesn't mean I was completely or even [b] mostly [b] convinced he was mafia. And when you're saying that I was trying to get Rels lynched despite being suspicious of jock, you totally fail to fucking realize I was more suspicious of rels than jock, so your whole argument is moot because I wanted to lynch someone who I thought was more suspicious. So when I switched to someone rayn pointed out was actually a good chance of being mafia , vivax, of course I finally switched and stayed. Also yes I read that rels sucks as day 1 even as town, but honestly I personally don't know that and I never really just "trust" people on what they say about other's people's metas. All I know is Rels played like how he did exactly when he was mafia with me. But especially as he didn't post at all by the end of the day, which is very different than just lurking for mosting of it, I didn't really feel confident with him either and that would just be a chance lynch. And I grew more convinced Jock was town near the end because of the complete lack of activity (there was only me and grack and rayn for the last hour), which doesn't seem like it would be likely if jock was mafia. | ||
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Okay now hopefully no one thinks I'm mafia for trying to get the mafia godfather killed | ||
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On May 03 2019 05:23 Holyflare wrote: I don't know if I want to read into the choice to replace igrok and not vivax or not. I wouldn't | ||
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On May 03 2019 07:30 VisceraEyes wrote: You know what No. Pandain. No. You don't get to come in here and jizz all over the thread about "trying to lynch the gf" when A) you had literally zero credibility beyond your ability to provide ONE vote, and not even a vote OFF the main wagon. It was a useless vote on Rels that went nowhere and meant nothing, just like the Vivax vote. In fact, it makes sense to me that the mafia team would be trying to capitalize on a possibly MODKILLED GF. ##Vote: Pandain I'm sorry if I came across as arrogant, I didn't mean to send that tone. It definitely does sound a bitdickish on reread, and I apologize if it does. Honestly, it was mostly just feeling happy that I probably wasn't going to have to spend a lot of time defending myself, and the fact that my biggest scum read was mafia. However, you're completely missing the situation. Let me summarize three reasons why 1. Vivax was in absolutely no danger of getting lynched and I single-handedly led the lynch on him. Yes, Rayn was suspicious of him first and brought me aware of him, but I convinced him and Grack to vote for him (Rayn was super apathetic at first about switching.) So it's not a "one vote", it's leading a wagon. 2. There were so many "AFK" votes that anything could have happened end of day . There were four nonvoters, which is a huge amount. Why would I introduce such huge amounts of chaos and uncertainty towards the mafia godfather when no one was trying to talk about it. 3. You say I'm trying to capitalize on a possibly modkilled GF. Ok, that would make sense (maybe) if it was end of the night right before the day2 post. But why as Mafia would I think that vivax would stay AFK throughout the entire night (24 hours)? So that doesn't make any sense unless Vivax would have posted something like he couldn't make it, in which case Artanis probably wouldn't have modkilled him because he got the heads up. On May 03 2019 07:42 VisceraEyes wrote: I just don't know what he's capable of, he's better than me okay?! HES BETTER THAN ME BUGS AND I CAN'T FUCKING READ HIM! He could be doing this as town, cock-sure of himself saying fuck all of us. We don't matter to him regardless of his alignment. He could be doing this as mafia, fearlessly flitting from target to target, posting walls of quotes and then writing conclusions that have nothing to do with the quotes AND YOU DON'T REMEMBER BECAUSE THE WALL WAS SO BIG! Honestly this post sounds really fake. But if you're actually town then you should know I actually think you're pretty good at the game and probably 'better' than me... On May 03 2019 07:46 VisceraEyes wrote: Whatever I'll just read then. I fucking hate when people come in and scream about trying to lynch someone who died NOT from the lynch and flipped and now I'm tilted. Can you explain why this makes you mad? Honestly if you're town you should be thrilled that mafia got killed, and instead you seem pissed. Just becuase I didn't suceede in getting him lynched was not because I didn't try, actually all 3 people active at end of day voted for him; it was a problem of inactivity- not lack of will or effort. | ||
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In the meanwhile I'll be catching up | ||
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On May 04 2019 01:45 VisceraEyes wrote: It's a Jeep tell from MafiaScum, I'm sure I've explained it in your presence before. Players who do things like congratulate the doctor on a successful save tend to be mafia. What Pandain is like the reverse of it, try to appear town by talking about how much it would suck to be mafia after the GF got killed. This is a horrible "tell" . Also it would suck to be mafia. Like I would be beyond pissed if I was mafia, especially if HF is actually cop and checked bugs (which I 100% doubt because Bugs seems super super town to me) | ||
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On May 04 2019 07:52 VisceraEyes wrote: Try and lynch me if you think it's fake. Good fucking luck. Can you respond to my actual points? It makes no sense for me to have done what I did if I was mafia. It would be extremely counter productive ,my teammates could have gotten super super super pissed at me, and maybe I would even be banned or something crazy if I did something as stupid as that. | ||
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It's a good question. I can't help but think Doc actually saved someone or a vet got shot, because let's realize that only one person died. And I think it would be super weird for mafia to have 1kp. Anyway that doesn't answer your question. If I had to guess 2 more? | ||
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On May 04 2019 07:56 VisceraEyes wrote: I will respond to literally nothing you say in your defense. Your best defense is to try and offer up another alternative. You are objectively a terrible mafia player if you are town and say this. Objectively. | ||
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I just caught up, and by the way if I genuinely think you are mafia and that is my best bet I don't care how town-read you are. Particuarly when there's 20 hours left in the day. | ||
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I just think it's a very very weak theory. No one was suspecting him at all. And especially in a low player-count game like this it seems very risky. I mean its certainly possible. But I think the sheer improbability should caution you away from me. That's the point I'm making. | ||
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And you need to address it anyway. You think I'm just a prolific busser? You think I knew that he wouldn't get lynched? | ||
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But his post about not knowing what time the lynch is seems more townie than scum. At least, it seems genuine (which makes me think he's more likely town because I feel like scum tend to be more invested, more aware of deadlines, etc...). Makes me a bit hesitant. But I think BC is a better option for today. I just get a huge mafia vibe from him. Outside of his very early posts on Jock (5 days ago), he's only posted without advocating, which is exactly what he does in his mafia posts. Take a look at his filter and posts that aren't asking questions or defending himself, and see what exists: + Show Spoiler + On May 02 2019 00:49 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Order of people who need to be lynched currently. Jock Rels FF Rels and FF are interchangeable atm. If Igrok isn't modkilled then add him to that list if he magically comes back to hit the minimum post requirements. In terms of everyone else. BC - Town Pandain - lean town WBG -lean town HF - lean town VE - Lean town Koshi - Neutral Rayn - Neutral Grack, MZ and Vivax are all on my watch list atm as they arent performing as they should as town. On May 03 2019 04:33 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Mostly caught up at the moment. Pandain/Grack are both shady to me thus far from what i've read. Mainly as both of them have been fairly active overall but the content they have both posted is basically non existent. This is very very similar to how Pandain posted in end of the world mafia. Ie situationally active and talks about things but never seriously pushes them. Trying to hard imo to appear as town while providing no effort. The next big tell for me is he actively agreed with the Jock Lynch but opted to vote for someone who hadn't started posting yet then swapped his vote with 0 stated reasons. Grack literally had a filter of 0 content for how long it is so he is clearly around but not doing anything of value. Although at this point I feel that one of HF/Rayn/Bugs could be mafia. Unsure of who. Bugs as mafia (in the past) when I have played with him has been super aggressive similar to how aggressive I can be and hes not this game. However I disagree with basically all his reads and I think he should be better than that. I personally find reading HF and Rayn insanely hard and until I am 100% sure one of them is mafia I am not prepared for the potential shit storm that creates. On May 04 2019 05:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote: What a cluster fuck -_- Everything I just read screams of a town bugs vs a town HF. You two need to stop funneling eachother and take a step back and breathe ffs. TBH if you look based purely on activity since the flip the people based on absence that look the worst. Pandain Rels Me As we have all been mia. As much as me being at work then sleeping makes sense to me, enough people in mafia lie about why they aren't around to avoid the fos so meh. IMO the shit pandain did when he came back into thread did not exonerate him. He was a top lynch pick of more than 1 person and all hes done is appear to basically claim town cred then bounce. Given that I was already suspicious of him and the whole attempting to claim town cred and vanishing looks slimy as fuck, hes red in my mind unless he can change my mind before he flips. The thing with rels. He was "inactive" in thread in the end of the world mafia when he and I were on a team together until he couldn't be anymore. Even then he tried to fly under the radar. However he was stupidly active in the mafia QT. as much as part of me wants to say hes red. Currently he just looks like he has 0 time and no motivation to play. As hes basically almost at the modkill point id leave him for that / wait and see if he appears just long enough to skirt the posting / voting requirements. On May 04 2019 05:25 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Also god help me cause im likely wrong somewhere in here. Town /b] VE BC FF null - lean town WBG HF MZ Koshi Null Alakaslam Mafia Pandain Grack Rels Essentially since 5 days he's only made list posts. No real energy, just bare posts that feign activity without actually showing an interest in changing or significantly influencing the game. On May 04 2019 05:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote: What a cluster fuck -_- Also it's very small, but I'm like 90% certain he posted something almost identical to this when he was mafia in end of the world with me. Just bland demeaning criticism of the thread. It could be either alignment but it rubs me the wrong way. | ||
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On May 04 2019 08:45 Holyflare wrote: Wtf kind of theory is this by the way? Where does it say anything about any kind of extra mafia kp role in op? Are you trying really badly to fake a dumb tell? I even had to read the op to make sure. I hooe you're impressed. No my point is that only one person died. So are we just assuming that mafia has one kp? Probably not, then town would be hugely advantaged. So the fact that only one person died suggests there was a medic save or a vet got shot. | ||
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On May 04 2019 08:39 Holyflare wrote: Everyone realises it but everyone has been burnt by bussing before. It's a futile exercise, especially when I can almost guarantee the first post in the mafia qt is vivax telling his team to bus him. You asking for all the cred is bad. Your post after the day post basically screaming for cred didn't help, looked pretty fake. Your lack of night activity because it was oh so obvious you wouldn't die and you'd do it tomorrow into nothing looks bad. Your d1 avoiding jock looked bad. Your 0 real scum reads is bad. More content will eclipse those points potentially eventually but you have to start somewhere. VE is being an absolute gentleman trying to help. I mean this stuff is not important but if anyone is to credit for the near-Vivax lynch it is me. That's just a fact. I'll ignore the night activity stuff, yeah it sucks but I'm in the MIddle East working 12 hour days and I get busy sometimes. Even now it's 3AM and I'm staying up just so I can be active and post some and try to contribute. And my only strong scum read up to this point was in fact... scum. So I'll be happy with that ![]() | ||
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On May 03 2019 04:42 Pandain wrote: Decent argument but unfortunately it fails to keep in mind one key thing. It's day 1, and any of my reads are weak. So yes, I agreed with Jock playing weird and even suspiciously. I stated as such and even stated that I don't think he was a bad lynch. But that doesn't mean I was completely or even [b] mostly [b] convinced he was mafia. And when you're saying that I was trying to get Rels lynched despite being suspicious of jock, you totally fail to fucking realize I was more suspicious of rels than jock, so your whole argument is moot because I wanted to lynch someone who I thought was more suspicious. So when I switched to someone rayn pointed out was actually a good chance of being mafia , vivax, of course I finally switched and stayed. But especially as he didn't post at all by the end of the day, which is very different than just lurking for mosting of it, I didn't really feel confident with him either and that would just be a chance lynch. And I grew more convinced Jock was town near the end because of the complete lack of activity (there was only me and grack and rayn for the last hour), which doesn't seem like it would be likely if jock was mafia. @HF I'm going to repost this for you re: jock since you either missed it or never responded to it. | ||
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Decent argument but unfortunately it fails to keep in mind one key thing. It's day 1, and any of my reads are weak. So yes, I agreed with Jock playing weird and even suspiciously. I stated as such and even stated that I don't think he was a bad lynch. But that doesn't mean I was completely or even [b] mostly [b] convinced he was mafia. And when you're saying that I was trying to get Rels lynched despite being suspicious of jock, you totally fail to fucking realize I was more suspicious of rels than jock, so your whole argument is moot because I wanted to lynch someone who I thought was more suspicious. So when I switched to someone rayn pointed out was actually a good chance of being mafia , vivax, of course I finally switched and stayed. But especially as he didn't post at all by the end of the day, which is very different than just lurking for mosting of it, I didn't really feel confident with him either and that would just be a chance lynch. And I grew more convinced Jock was town near the end because of the complete lack of activity (there was only me and grack and rayn for the last hour), which doesn't seem like it would be likely if jock was mafia. By the way I realize the phrasing is awkward here, the bolded red statement refers to rels and not to vivax. | ||
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On May 04 2019 09:08 wherebugsgo wrote: Pandain why did you think Vivax was scum? On May 02 2019 04:52 Pandain wrote: Vivax is a great lynch. He's always obvious town when he's town and super active. Compare that with this game where it is not obvious at all and he's barely contributed (but enough to "pass") | ||
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On May 04 2019 09:12 Holyflare wrote: What games have you played in when mafia have more than 1kp in a normal sized game? Ok I was just going off the top of my head, I'm not an expert on balance. 1KP just seemed low compared to the 2KP last game and 3KPin end of the world mafia. Honestly if you both want to lynch me because I miscaculated what KP should be off the top of my head go ahead. Going for these "gotcha" moments instead of actual scumhunting is one of the reasons why the town play on these forums tends to be pretty low. | ||
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On May 04 2019 09:24 wherebugsgo wrote: Pandain what do you think of MZ, given that you think BC is scum? Who would you lynch today? If you have notes on the game, now’s the time.. Dude my thoughts on MZ are literally in the same post, what are you even thinking. And I literally voted dude. | ||
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On May 04 2019 09:34 Holyflare wrote: Way to trivialise it. This is just one of many points against. The only okay points are lack of activity night one and fake inconsistencies regarding Jock, which I addressed and you never responded to. It absolutely was not inconsistent at all. | ||
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On May 04 2019 09:39 wherebugsgo wrote: I’m asking you to resynthesize. idgaf if you posted something before, and I don’t care much that you voted either. If you believe BC is scum why aren’t you trying to convince others to join you? I don't have unlimited time to play this game. In fact to the contrary, I usually have very limited time. It's why I prioritize and choose useful times I can post (and the main reason I was okay playing a bad n1, since I was unlikely to die). If you want me to restate things becuase you hope to catch me contradicting me previously, than you should realize I can just look at previous posts and make sure that happens. Conversely, if I'm town, what I say shouldn't be different anwyay. And who I want to lynch is probably who I voted... And I made like 3-4 posts, no one even responded. At this point it's clear people have made up their mind one way or the other. I don't have anything new to add, I might switch to a MZ counterwagon if it's the only way to save myself. Maybe if I had a free day tomorrow I would spam post to save myself, but unfortunately I don't. The only closing words I'll say to townies is even if you're pretty sure I'm mafia, look at other people. And hopefully you realize that at least I shouldn't be lynched "today" | ||
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On May 04 2019 09:48 wherebugsgo wrote: You don’t have that much time so you spend a bunch of time speculating about kp and posting this drivel instead of just explaining your read further? Can you point me to the posts you made which you think no one responded to? I made a post off the cuff about kp that happened to be wrong and then got called out. It is what it is. At the time it was the BC post, no one commented about it at all outside of a joke post by VE, now I see some comments which is good. I don't have much to add, you can agree with it or not. | ||
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I thought he was an okay lynch for day 1, not great but decent for day1. I was lukewarm about him and had more a gut read on rels (although that vibe more disappeared when it became clear rels was not lurking but just genuinely afk). At end of day, I became concerned with the complete lack or drive attempts away from jock which suggested to me he's town. I tried to switch to rels (who I was still not sold on but viewed it like an RNG lynch because he was essentially inactive) , but Rayn would only be down for vivax or bugs. I realized vivax was a great lynch and pushed for him. Later I posted I think a couple mafia were maybe on Jock, this is because he was the lazy but decent day 1 choice . It didn't mean of course I thought everyone who voted him is suspicious but it does mean I thought scum would vote him too. This has been at least vindicated by vivax flipping. | ||
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On May 04 2019 11:31 wherebugsgo wrote: Let’s work together in whatever time you have. I’m not sure if I can prevent a lynch on you nor do I know if I want to at this point but if you are town then I’m basically your only defender. Let’s imagine you are correct about BC being scum. 1. Do you find any interactions between other players and BC/vice versa that stood out to you? 2. Specifically on MZ, if BC died and flipped scum would you feel more or less confident on MZ? I thought BC thinking both me and grack are his top mafia reads as complete crazy considering we helped lead the vivax lynch. But apparently you guys have rampant bussing issues in the past so I guess it's null, but I do find it surprising he didn't at least mention it. I didn't read too much into their interaction. Could be anything. I'm 90% convinced one of HF or BC is mafia (No I'm not going to get into HF. I just think his play is lazy this game and not good. It's more a gut feeling than anything concrete. ) | ||
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It's day 1 dude what do you want. And I was very transparent the whole day that I was iffy on Jock, it's not like I was gungho about him and then trying to lynch people who voted him later | ||
Pandain
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Mostly because if I just accepted that scummy play from someone was their meta and then they turn out to be scum I would be pretty infuriated. | ||
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That may be enough for other people, but HF in other games is almost crazy thorough, constantly reanalyzing things and changing perspectives and trying to figure out the game holistically, both town and mafia. Particuarly in a game this small it's alarming. | ||
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On May 04 2019 20:32 Holyflare wrote: Yes I know your point of view. I just have my own assumption about it. Ok but my perspective is backed up by my posts whole your perspective is just conjecture. I said a few times I wasn't sold on Jock | ||
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But I don't know who else I would vote for. HF is a scum read, MZ is a soft scum read. I am 99% Bugs and Grack are town, pretty sure that VE is town, soft town lead on BC, and then null on everyone else. I'm going to do some digging if I have time. | ||
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Especially with the votes still pretty close it just seems excessive to claim vet. I'm not sure. | ||
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On May 05 2019 02:16 Grackaroni wrote: I think we should lynch Pandain. After rereading his filter I don't like that he makes such a hard turn into being super sure Vivax is the best lynch at the end of the day and tries to milk the credit for voting him for all that it's worth. Rayn put him in a spot where he pretty much had to vote Vivax but there wasn't much chance of Vivax actually dying at the end of the day when the only people posting were me/Pandain/Rayn. None of this is true. First of all I had a strong scum read on him, but it wasn't "certain" by any means . Second, Rayn didn't put me in any position and I'm not sure what this means at all. I could have easily not tried to change the lynch, or lynch bugs (Rayn top scum read), or just go afk. So this is completely false. Third, we had no idea how much chance there was. Normally end of day is very active and inactive people come back last 20 or so minutes. There were four non voters which us huge. | ||
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On May 05 2019 03:04 Holyflare wrote: Let's assume pandain is town. Really really have to stretch our imaginations but let's just pretend. Now let's also do something crazy and pretend bugs is the opposite alignment to what he is. What has koshi achieved other than complete apathy and small posts and almost 0 activity after vivax was modkilled? If you're town you're completely tunneled on me. Unfortunately if I was around when you first started making arguments you probably would not still be talking about me, but because I was essentially afk for 48 hours means your biases had time to fester and control your perspective and disallow an actual fresh reasoned view. Nothing I did was weird or strange, and what I said regarding my mindset is supported by my posts (apathy on Jock, etc..) | ||
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I'm heavily rooting for you two. | ||
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This is too awesome | ||
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On May 05 2019 05:09 wherebugsgo wrote: why the fuck would HF as veteran troll on n1 I don't actually get anything about how he played. and why was he so insistent I was scum Don't let certain veterans fool you into thinking their God's or something. I know this forum has a lot of huge egos but honestly mafia is an insanely hard game, and even the best players are right only like 50% or the time if even that. Anyone, including HF, can play bad sometimes. | ||
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I'm hoping we are able to get a cop to make a few night checks and then by day 4 give us some information. Perhaps start checking lurkers? | ||
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On May 05 2019 10:21 Alakaslam wrote: I haven’t even read anything and I don’t think I’m going to Until we lynch pandain then then I’ll read again You need to explain why you still want to lynch me | ||
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Compare them with last couple times he's been town. tl.net tl.net In comparison, it's a lot more like times he's been mafia. tl.net tl.net | ||
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Did Koshi ever contribute? Did Koshi ever push? Did Koshi ever do anything meaningful? And if the answer is no, is that what you expect from town yoshi, as demonstrated above? | ||
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On May 06 2019 04:22 Grackaroni wrote: This post is very strange to me. All WBG did was include Pandain in his scum list and he's talking about how Pandain is going to change his read on him for it as scum. I can't recall ever seeing a townie say something like this. I don't think that's that strange, maybe the specific situation is strange but the general thought of "oh I've done this now I think this person will react x" are pretty common mindsets for townies. Anyone I think WBG made his alignment clear in last day's lynch. Even though it was a mislynch, you could tell how serious WBG is into the game. It was very genuine his play, especially in the last 10 or so hours. He could be faking this genuine enthusiasm, or perhaps after the mafia modkill it motivated him 10x. But I doubt it. | ||
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On May 06 2019 03:55 Grackaroni wrote: Slam - I can't really say anything. Maybe he's enjoying himself? Slam is complete null. Hopefully next time he's here, I'm also active and I can get some posts out of him more than one liners and memes. | ||
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Anything else would actually help town imo. | ||
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Who's the pro MVP this game? | ||
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If it is VE or Bugs then might as well not claim to keep uncertainty over who is who, so it doesn't hurt mafia. | ||
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Small chance Grack or Bugs. Question: Do we ever think about having cop claim? Medic can stay silent and secretly protect them (no roleblocker now), and cop can be another confirmed townie to help and provide some very useful information. It's very likely (with a Godfather) that there's a real cop. Even if the last mafia tries to claim cop and suceedes because there is no actual cop, I feel like he would be found out after at least 1 day or two, and with only one mafia left it will be easy cleanup. | ||
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On May 06 2019 05:06 Pandain wrote: If the Vig is not VE or Bugs they should 100% claim. Basically a free confirmed town. If it is VE or Bugs then might as well not claim to keep uncertainty over who is who, so it doesn't hurt mafia. so it doesn't help mafia * | ||
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On May 06 2019 05:18 Grackaroni wrote: I doubt we have three blues that would be unbalanced. Good point, but it is convincing because there is a GF. Have there ever been games with a godfather or miller and no cop? Also the last mafia could very conceivably be a Framer, helping to counterbalance things. | ||
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On May 06 2019 05:24 VisceraEyes wrote: Yes, it's actually fairly common. It allows mafia to fake-claim cop. Oh well then ignore that point. I guess it's too ballsy at this point, and could lead to us trusting individuals who could be lying. I think town is way ahead at this point so we can play it safe. I'm thinking MZ but honestly I haven't analyzed him or FF or Slam too deeply. I'm going to look into them later this night/tomorrow morning before I vote. @VE do you agree Grack is at least likely town? | ||
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Both killed mafia, got rid of one of the "non-posting lurkers", and was actually sort of a risk since I don't think anyone was 100% certain he was mafia with the other lurkers in the pool too. | ||
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On May 06 2019 05:39 Fecalfeast wrote: Also koshi said he was going to be 'rayn 2.0' with rayn's list. This should probably mean the rest of rayn's list is incorrect? MZ sounds like a good place to start. Low activity for a newb on a team of afk scum sounds totally accurate Unfortunately I think it is a huge boost for Bugs and to a lesser extent me but since you were so far down the line it doesn't help you that much. You were more an addendum than anything else. | ||
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However, I want to point out that it's entirely possible they just shot him because he's a good player who was town. I actually think there's almost no chance mafia shot you because medic would protect you, so the question is who else would they shoot? Realistically only bugs and BC. They were clearly still aiming to put suspicion on wherebugsgo (as we see from Koshi's post) On May 06 2019 01:30 Koshi wrote: Both hf and rayn pointed heavily at wbg. Probably not a bad bet for mafia. On May 03 2019 21:12 Koshi wrote: I read rayn filter and I will just be rayn 3.0. This is because Koshi = rayn 2.0 and now I absorbed rayn 1.0. They weren't ever going to shoot me since there was still some suspicion on me, and everyone else as well. So the best shot, even ignoring anything BC said and even if he was wrong on everything was still probably BC. | ||
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On May 06 2019 06:35 Fecalfeast wrote: why not shoot ve tho? most universally townread player who is mad active basically if VE and I are in final 3 im voting ve If I was mafia I would never shoot VE. He was the obvious medic save. By far. | ||
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On May 05 2019 02:16 Grackaroni wrote: I think we should lynch Pandain. After rereading his filter I don't like that he makes such a hard turn into being super sure Vivax is the best lynch at the end of the day and tries to milk the credit for voting him for all that it's worth. Rayn put him in a spot where he pretty much had to vote Vivax but there wasn't much chance of Vivax actually dying at the end of the day when the only people posting were me/Pandain/Rayn. I don't like this post at all. First of all, the last sentence is extremely and obviously false, and looks like he's just trying to make up stuff. The idea I felt forced by Rayn to vote Vivax is extremely ridiculous and I'm not sure how anyone actually can come to that conclusion, particuarly since he was there when it was happening. But second of all, and more importantly, it actually reveals his own mindset during the lynch. Grack, in his own words, thought there was very little chance of Vivax dying. Unlike me, and it basically completely negates his own vote on Vivax. On May 05 2019 02:23 Grackaroni wrote: From the way I saw it Vivax was a pretty good lynch just from lynching into a player that wasn't posting (and also is bad at scum) without having any strong scum reads but I didn't think he had all that much better odds of flipping mafia than most of the other players from just his two posts. I think Pandain really played up the end of the day vote after Rayn said he wanted to vote Vivax. This reads to me like: "now that I'm bussing I want to get as much credit as possible from the vote." This also makes no sense. I was trying to get as much credit as possible from the bus? But actually I was only able to get credit because Vivax was modkilled, something no one could have predicted day one. And in his own words, "Vivax was very unlikely to get lynched." So in that scenario I would have never gotten any credit (because no flip), and instead I would have just thrown Vivax under the bus for day 2. On May 05 2019 02:56 Grackaroni wrote: Fwiw I bet Rayn had 2 of these reads right. I don't think he got killed just over Vivax. Trying to sheep Rayn's analysis, which is the same exact thing mafia koshi tried to do. Seems mafia was trying to get people to follow dead town Rayn's analysis, and Grack is doing the same thing here. I also don't like how he hardcore defended HF and said he's super obviously townie. On May 05 2019 02:10 Grackaroni wrote: What the fuck guys. Holyflare's filter is super super townie. This is the weakest of my points. But I don't think it was actually obvious and there were lots of good points made against him. I think dismissing them like this suggests inside knowledge. Anyway just some thoughts. I'm going to do meta analysis tomorrow if I have time. Still not placing a vote but definitely more suspicious of Grack. | ||
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On May 05 2019 03:15 Grackaroni wrote: You asked Rayn if he would switch to Rels. He said he the only vote he would switch to was Vivax. It would look really strange imo if you came out against lynching Vivax after expressing interest in switching up the vote, so I don't see you ever not voting Vivax as scum in that position. If you wanted a WBG lynch then conceivably you would have voted him already. Do you really believe this? Do you believe that as scum because I expressed interest in lynching someone else I would have to lynch my mafia teammate because rayn said he would maybe switch to vivax? | ||
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Grack there's a reason I haven't voted you, it's because I haven't made up my mind. I just want you to explain prior reasons you gave | ||
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On May 06 2019 08:33 Grackaroni wrote: We can’t believe a fake claim because town can just counter claim and win Not if there's no counter claim. For instance no cop and they claim cop, or no medic and they claim medic | ||
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It's hard to get a read on Slam when he's only active for 25 minutes during the day, and when I asked him a question before on why he wants to vote me he only says its because I'm "iffy" | ||
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First of all, I think he's playing pretty similar to his last town game in Fibbonaci (Compare Here: tl.net) Then I really like these three posts On May 06 2019 06:08 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Lol that legitimately hurt me I really can't promise great activity and we've got a ton of mislynches to burn so I'm fine taking the L today. Let's talk about tomorrow. I'm not sold on slam as scum but I'll try and read him today. If we're going on the assumption scum was super inactive this game then FF is also a possibility. Is okay with getting lynched given circumstances, still wants to talk about other people. Good town mindset. On May 04 2019 03:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Ok two hours to go. I want to do shenanigans. HF not around to defend or explain his actions is making me not like the bugs lynch more and more. Like I said early game, I'd rather not just lynch through the most active voices who find themselves on the wrong thread sentiment. I would like to go after Rels for the tmi post and complete afk. After the death of the gf I'd imagine scum morale is pretty low and if townies are pointing fingers at townies their best strategy is to lurk. Being obviously wrong about when the time is. I actually don't think mafia fakes things like this often, so I think he genuinely thought lynch was soon. Mafia tends to view QTs before they post and in general have a better idea of deadlines, so its a town plus for me. On May 06 2019 06:17 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Yeah like I said earlier you're my strongest townread, I'll give you a skim but I'm gonna focus on unknowns. Lowkey glad BC got shot bc I was not getting town vibes from him but he must have died for a reason so I guess I'll start there. I am also lowkey glad BC got shot, and the fact MZ says this hints to me that if he was mafia he probably would understand shooting BC was not the best move. There are still suspicious things about him, but for right now the order for me is Grack -> Slam -> MZ | ||
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On May 06 2019 20:02 VisceraEyes wrote: Like whether I agree with you or not, if he is still not interested in doing anything, I think he's got to go. We're at that point. Are you talking about slam or ff? | ||
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Anyway my best scum read is Grack, followed by MZ. But if Slam continues to be useless I'll probably vote Grack -> Slam -> MZ. Not sure I'm going to change this opinion. As long as there's only one mafia let, we can afford at least mislynches. We currently have 7 people, meaning 6 town and 1 mafia. Day 3 (6 v 1): Mislynch and successful NK Day 4 (4 v 1) Mislynch and successful NK Day 5 (3 v 1) Mislynch and successful NK I actually think that if our next two lynch aren't mafia we should no-lynch on Day 5. It will make lylo day be 2v1 instead of 3v1, which I think helps town? Also if we ever get a doc save we get 4 mislynches. | ||
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Day 3 (6 v 1): Mislynch and successful NK Day 4 (4 v 1) Mislynch and successful NK Day 5 (2 v 1) Mislynch and successful NK Okay, so no no-lynch needed. But if we get a doc save then I guess we can think about it. | ||
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Also VE I hope you know at that point no one is confirmed. For instance, if Bugs manages to survive despite being regularly seen as town, he becomes suspicious. | ||
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would there even be posts? | ||
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Slam you have been active but still done absolutely nothing. Why are you voting MZ? | ||
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What are your opinions on FF and Grack? | ||
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On May 07 2019 00:23 VisceraEyes wrote: ![]() Lolllll | ||
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I mean it's slightly suspicious, but Rels was different than Koshi in that Rels was doing absolutely nothing while at least the first day Koshi was contributing a little. | ||
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On May 07 2019 02:39 Alakaslam wrote: There you go VE Useless shit speculation about why scum made such a dumbass shot I don't think speculating on why someone got shot is ever the wrong thing to do after the night ends. In fact it's the most reasonable and pertinent thing to do. Can you please give your thoughts on grack and FF? And are you just sheeping VE on MZ or do you actually have your own reasons? | ||
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Instead MZ has given town leans on everyone except FF. Imagine: You're MZ, the last scum. You're up for the lynch. Pandain, Slam, and Grack have all had suspicions on them. But instead you go for FF? Doesn't make sense, and makes me lean town. On May 07 2019 08:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Haha holy shit did the inner guilt get to you? Playing scum sucks, sorry your team kinda gave this one up. This post seems really fake, however. I wish I had something more to add but I really don't. I was looking at filters for like an hour but can't decide really between Grack, Slam, MZ, and to a lesser extent FF. | ||
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I should clarify in the above I don't "Townread" him, its just the strategy seems like it comes more from a townie. | ||
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On May 07 2019 16:29 VisceraEyes wrote: The thing is, lone mafia ALL look like town. Because like townies, they can't trust anyone. EVERYONE is LITERALLY out to kill them. I'm trying to use the events of the game to make a determination. Have you read my latest posts on MZ? Yes, it's why these kinds of scenarios are so hard. On May 07 2019 11:17 VisceraEyes wrote: Like, townies VOTE. It's what townies DO because townies ONLY get to vote. MZ you're VT right? Fucking, and you didn't VOTE? GET OUTTA HEEEEAH!! I would actually say that town is more likely to miss votes than mafia, because mafia have a vested interested in at least following the thread during the last part of the day (and if they are active they will almost certainly vote). Town has an interest, but since they're not on a team it's less vital. Yeah the stuff about not taking a very strong stance on Jock is concerning, but it was day 1 That's the problem man. It's a bunch of weak stuff- I agree with you it's suspicious! But none of it is that strong. The problem is all of Grack, MZ, and Slam have pro points and con points. None of it is black and white to me. I felt pretty confident on Koshi and pretty confident on Vivax. But I'll be honest now I am not really sure. The great thing I don't have to be right now, we have three mislynches. | ||
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That's what I do now because I'm out of ideas. Note things. Carry on. | ||
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On May 07 2019 16:53 wherebugsgo wrote: I agree with this interpretation, because you were fear posting on the claim calls. Like grack must not be playing the same game because he commented earlier about rayn fake claiming veteran. And he, I assume, witnessed HF actually flip veteran. So what happened there? If that hypothetical had played out with both of them alive in this situation we get a counterclaim and lynch a townie? Well I mean if both had seriously claimed veteran than yeah. But I don't think anyone takes Rayn's claim seriously. Did you? Why would a veteran ever claim veteran. I mean the argument we don't have to worry about fake claims because town can counter claim is flawed because there might not be a town counter claim, but I'm not sure it means anything besides being dumb. I might have something really interesting soon. Give me 30 minutes. | ||
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VE, you have said that Fecalfeasts effort and activity in this game proves him as town. I would say precisely the opposite. Fecalfeast's enthusiasm and real pushing in this game far more parallels his mafia games than his town games. Fecalfeasts filter this game: tl.net Last four town games: Fibonnaci Mafia: tl.net End of the World Mafia: tl.net Classic Mafia: tl.net Medic Mafia: tl.net These games are dominated by one liners, and low effort and very few genuine pushing, but nevertheless a generally consistent presence. Extremely few posts out of these four games have more than a couple lines, and there are no analysis posts of actual length at all. FF as town delivers his opinions, but is not very concerned about really trying to push people. If people believe him, great. If they don't, he might continue to post some one liner's and continue to tunnel on that person, but he never resorts to actually significantly engaging with others to get others lynched. Last three mafia games Carnaval do Brasil Mafia: tl.net Liquidmania Qualifier #3 Mafia: tl.net Hurricane Shelter Mafia:tl.net There are plenty of one-liners here as well. But there is another huge, qualitative difference. It is as mafia that FF actually feels compelled to justify his reads. It's why you finally have posts like this, this, and particularly this and thisin Carnaval do Brasil Mafia, posts like this in Liquidmania Mafia, posts like this in Hurricane Shelter Mafia: longer posts meaningfully and substantially justifying his reasoning that we never ever ever see in his town games. Note in Hurricane Shelter Mafia and Liquidmania he got lynched early so he didn't have as much time to demonstrate his pattern, but the pattern nevertheless exists. As town, FF doesn't really give a shit as appearing town. As mafia however, he puts more effort into his posts and seriously pushes more people. Based on the above 7 games, town FF would never have written a post like this in this game: On May 07 2019 11:19 Fecalfeast wrote: as soon as slam started talking about pandain a post jumped into my mind from pandain. I will find it When he made the post it seemed like he was more worried about pointing out that it doesn't clear me than anything else. Which I disliked obviously. I don't know. I'm rereading pandains day 1 and he has some weird posts with our current information. I have a bunch of tabs open but here are some highlights Look how self-conscious and aware of how he's being perceived pandain is in this triple-post. Reads like it's coming from a mafia mindset. Here's a pretty odd contradiction coupled with some equally odd association with koshi So shortly before grouping these 5 players as some weird cell containing 2 scum, he called two of its members town. Not townleans either. Two of the other members have flipped town This, coupled with the fact that we have already established that vivax's first post in the scum QT was likely instructions to bus him, means that pandain through leading a vivax lynch was setting up to lynch into a group of 4 towns. Pretty odd indeed. I will now mention that he happened to call flipped-scum koshi town twice in these posts but will not speak further on such a simple point. I have some kinda shitty stuff too if you're interested Throughout this game you all agree FF has been active and pushing people. Changing views and going back and forth. You all credited him for this; however this effort is more emblematic of his mafia playstyle. Don't believe me? Listen to his own words this game: On May 02 2019 15:49 Fecalfeast wrote: I'm never a fan of people going for me earlygame (or ever, really) because my scum meta (based on my own memory) is one of high activity earlygame because I'm excited to have rolled mafia. As town I'm often low hanging fruit which, obviously, is self-defeating of my tendency to omgus but it doesn't seem to matter. Which one describes FF: "high activity" and "excited", or "low hanging fruit". | ||
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What do we find when we seriously analyze him? FF on day 1 had his biggest scum reads on Vivax and BC, and particuarly Vivax. However, he left his vote on MZ who at that time was not a top scum read of his. On May 02 2019 14:16 Fecalfeast wrote: maf BC vivax (post shortened for relevance) On May 02 2019 16:09 Fecalfeast wrote: 1. No, you can look through my games yourself + Show Spoiler [FecalFeast] + TL Mafia LXVIII: Fanfic Crossover Edition Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 3 2p2 Vanilla Werewolf 13er Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 4 Zesty Italian Dressing Micro Mafia Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 1 Newbie Mini Mafia LIX Mafia Vanilla Survived Day 3 Fantasy Football Mafia Mini 2 Town Miller Survived Day 2 Campus Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 5 V Titanic Mini Mafia: A Game of Four Hours Mafia Roleblocker Survived Night 2 VI Titanic Mini Mafia: The Return of MSPaint Town Vanilla Survived Day 5 TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells Town Vanilla Survived Night 5 PYP: Pick Your Protoss Mini Mafia Town Probe Survived Day 2 Linux Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Survived Night 1 Slytherin Mini Mafia Town Gunsmith Survived Day 3 VII Titanic Mini Mafia: I Have a Cunning Plan... Town Vanilla Survived Night 4 XXX Mini Mafia: A Night of Debauchery (18+) Town Vanilla Scum killed Night 3 Office Mini Mafia Town Medic Killed Night 3 Newbie Student Mafia VI Town Vanilla Survived Day 6 TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 7 Jack of All Trades Mafia Town Vanilla Endgamed Night 3 Newbie Student Mafia IX Town Vanilla Killed Night 1 Hajime no Ippo Maifa Mafia Miguel Zale Lynched Day 2 Carnaval do Brasil Mafia Mafia Vanilla Lynched Day 4 I Still Cant Believe its not Themed Mafia Town Vanilla Modkilled Day 4 Lost But Not Forgotten Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Survived Day 2 II Cannons Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Killed Night 3 The New Personality Mafia Town Glowingbear Killed Night 4 Student Mafia XV Town Veteran Survived Night 1 Student Mafia XVI Town Veteran Survived Day 5 Newbie Student Mafia XVII: Fullmetal Edition Town Vanilla Survived Day 3 Season of the Witch 2 Town Acolyte Killed Night 3 Newbie Student Mafia XVIII Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 3 Pick Your Power: Intriguing Mafia Professor Moriarty Lynched Day 2 Who Wants to be a Millionaire Cell Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Survived Day 1 Team Melee Mini Mafia VI: Newbies and Vets Town Vanilla Lynched Day 3 Tortoise Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 1 Newbie Mafia XXI Town Vanilla Killed Night 2 Palmars Purge: Crisis and Turmoil in Liquidia Town Ash Endgamed Day 5 Liquidmania Qualifier #3 Mafia Vanilla Survived Day 3 TL Mafia LXXV Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 7 MS Paint-Off Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 1 Hurricane Shelter Mafia Mafia Godfather Lynched Day 2 Newbie Student Mafia XXVII Town Vanilla Lynched Day 2 Classic Mafia Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 3 Medic Mafia Town Medic Survived Night 3 2. Vivax doesn't play when he's mafia based on my perception of him in games we've played together including one where we were both mafia In comparison, FF voted for MZ. Let's see what FF had to say regarding MZ at this point, who dismissed his earlier vote on him as a "fun pressure vote" and labeling him only "maf-ish" (compared to his other more strong reads) On May 02 2019 15:35 Fecalfeast wrote: BC seemed scummy when I read his posts. Let me take this bong rip and I'll look again at him MZ seemed like a fun pressure vote, got distracted playing rimworld/mtg arena and getting baked. Came back and again got distracted with real life shit. I was around at EoD but I had a physiotherapy appointment at deadline and hadn't really been reading so changing my vote to a wagon would have been purely for lulz On May 02 2019 14:16 Fecalfeast wrote: maf-ish grack? wbg MZ that's from a once over of the thread based on feels. thinking about hf's pandain case so i haven't placed him yet. rels can die too I can elaborate or whatever if ppl ask i'll be up all night I think FF wanted to give Koshi a pass and furthermore go through Rayn's list, which is now pretty much universally agreed to be wrong. On May 04 2019 12:23 Fecalfeast wrote: i say let him slide til he deviates from rayn 3.0 FF this past day cycle has been throwing around tons and tons of accusations and trying to get suspicions started on many different people. This is exactly what mafia wants to be doing, because they need to get into an end-game where no one is confirmed and everyone has suspicions on them. FF has been pushing, today, a Slam lynch, an MZ lynch, and a Pandain lynch. Not just talking about, he has all pushed them at different points. Furthermore, something really interesting occurs in his discussions about me. He goes through my filter and writes a long analysis post, and then VE mentions about me saying Koshi is very suspicious. FF's response? On May 07 2019 11:46 Fecalfeast wrote: oh well you see On May 07 2019 11:46 Fecalfeast wrote: I didn't actually read that far So he went through my filter and then stopped? FF, he is clearly this game has been active and putting on a pretense of caring about the game decided to write a long analysis of me without even finishing reading me? My filter is not even that long. This is someone who wanted to push someone with whatever they could, without actually caring on whether they are scum or not. | ||
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On May 07 2019 17:07 wherebugsgo wrote: thanks for your input friends. I’m on board with that. Btw if FF is somehow scum here that is some amaze balls play. Read his progression on slam today, and how he’s posted about Pandain. If he’s faking that level of uncertainty I just don’t know, he deserves to win the game as scum I guess. Unless someone can tell me that yes, FF has done something like scum I’m happy to consider him town here. This is not someone being uncertain. This is someone who is just trying to find a wagon that can stick and then stay there. If it doesn't work, he backs off while still not clearing the person. | ||
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Furthermore, as stated beforehand, he's trying to cause a whole bunch of different wagons on the same day. Not just talk about people and make one ultimate decision, but to go from wagon to wagon. From MZ to Slam to me to back to MZ. | ||
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He's also trying to push Bugs, which is very...strange from a mafia perspective. If you're mafia and aiming to get into a 2v1 scenario endgame, you are probably already going to shoot town people like Bugs and VE (if possible). Why waste your time on this lynch talking about Bugs who will probably die anyway? 2. Slam is a complete null. 3. I don't think Mafia MZ ever pushes for FF, who had absolutely no suspicions on him.If you are the top lynch as mafia, you are going to push someone who people are suspicious of, not someone who most people agreed was town. That would be extremely difficult. | ||
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About the scum games, I can't remember exactly what I thought but I very briefly went through them and thought I just noticed a difference in tone. But now I've actually analyzed them in detail (took about an hour) and I think it actually parallels them. | ||
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On May 07 2019 11:19 Fecalfeast wrote: as soon as slam started talking about pandain a post jumped into my mind from pandain. I will find it When he made the post it seemed like he was more worried about pointing out that it doesn't clear me than anything else. Which I disliked obviously. I don't know. I'm rereading pandains day 1 and he has some weird posts with our current information. I have a bunch of tabs open but here are some highlights Look how self-conscious and aware of how he's being perceived pandain is in this triple-post. Reads like it's coming from a mafia mindset. Here's a pretty odd contradiction coupled with some equally odd association with koshi So shortly before grouping these 5 players as some weird cell containing 2 scum, he called two of its members town. Not townleans either. Two of the other members have flipped town This, coupled with the fact that we have already established that vivax's first post in the scum QT was likely instructions to bus him, means that pandain through leading a vivax lynch was setting up to lynch into a group of 4 towns. Pretty odd indeed. I will now mention that he happened to call flipped-scum koshi town twice in these posts but will not speak further on such a simple point. I have some kinda shitty stuff too if you're interested This post absolutely never comes from a town FF. I just went through 3 additional town games in addition to the 4 noted above, and no post of his has ever come close to this size. That's 7 games, probably like 50 pages of posts combined. 1000 posts. However, as noted, there are several posts of his as mafia that are long and detailed like this. this and thisin Carnaval do Brasil Mafia this in Liquidmania Mafia this in Hurricane Shelter Mafia: In fact, all of his last 3 scum games had long posts like this. | ||
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On May 07 2019 18:46 wherebugsgo wrote: so FF is on the lynch MZ train right away as is sort of expected given that AFAICT he never town read MZ once prior to this day. But why does he so quickly get off MZ after his responses when the rest of town hasn't budged? Like that seemed premature to me, just autoswap to Pandain as soon as MZ posted something pseudo decent. Great point, considering from Day2 on MZ was his top scum read. Makes no sense at all, and sounds like he's just trying to create suspicions instead of actually lynching who he thinks is scum. | ||
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But now I think the rest of you are town, so you're my town buds too! Where ya'll at? | ||
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On May 07 2019 23:00 wherebugsgo wrote: I think Pandain's analysis is mostly pretty good but I don't think it's a slam dunk. If you look for counter examples, you can find them, but like Pandain mentioned they're rare. I haven't had the time to check whether I think they're more common as scum or not but for instance: From End of the World Party Mafia: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/542541-end-of-the-world-party-mafia?page=194#3873 From Classic Mafia https://tl.net/forum/mafia/542541-end-of-the-world-party-mafia?page=194#3873 noteworthy on classic is that he promised a post on someone else (TickTock?) and t hen never did it, so even as town he did something "scummy" You linked the same post. But re: end of the world mafia that's a just post defending himself. Not an actual anaylsis or substantial post or push .It's qualitatively different than what he does here and in other mafia games. | ||
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What I mean is that writing two paragraphs defending yourself is different than writing two paragraphs pushing someone or making a scumread. | ||
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On May 07 2019 23:06 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Ah now I see. Well its comforting to see someone agreeing with me although I wish it wasn't Pandain lmao. Here's your order VE FF>MZ>Pandain Again if by some miracle I don't get lynched today and FF is town. I want to die tomorrow bc I'll never survive final 3, everyone but maybe Pandain scum reads me. I will need to die so we can pack as many relatively townread people into the final 3 as possible so we don't end up with me/grack/slam lmao. This post is so townie it hurts. And it's 100% true, based on the environment of the thread MZ would 100% be lynched if it was in the endgame. Better to do it tomorrow than in the endgame. | ||
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@grack @slam @ff | ||
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I'm a basic metalhead now though I only listen to Iron Maiden ![]() | ||
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On May 08 2019 04:23 Fecalfeast wrote: and for the record I started making big posts as scum because in the before-times I actually would make a lot of big posts as town and wanted to make sure to emulate that as scum. Just a final defense of myself: I have a 100% scum win rate and regardless of how carried I got I'd be very interested in keeping that winrate alive. A lot more interested than I have been most of this game Is this a scum claim or did I misunderstand this | ||
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No new thoughts for today, or maybe the rest of the night | ||
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fml | ||
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On May 08 2019 07:03 Alakaslam wrote: Bam Also note Pandain defended Koshi early and cast him in a massive town light Did you also note I wrote four posts right before he got shot saying he was probably scum? | ||
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He's almost a liability. | ||
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On May 08 2019 14:50 Alakaslam wrote: Like what does one even do to prove innocence? I thought here the sole tubería was trying to look for scum? There are six people left in the game. One is scum. One is confirmed town, leaving 4 left. Who do you think is scum and why besides you just parroting HF? | ||
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Like there was no reason to assume the lynch would change. So if he was scum he was just giving up? Doesn't seem like it. | ||
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It's also part of why Slam is suspicious. He has 8 pages of filter and I don't actually think one is a good post. I mean he's a spammer but is he normally this bad? | ||
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You can read my prior post on grack here: On May 06 2019 06:53 Pandain wrote: I don't like this post at all. First of all, the last sentence is extremely and obviously false, and looks like he's just trying to make up stuff. The idea I felt forced by Rayn to vote Vivax is extremely ridiculous and I'm not sure how anyone actually can come to that conclusion, particuarly since he was there when it was happening. But second of all, and more importantly, it actually reveals his own mindset during the lynch. Grack, in his own words, thought there was very little chance of Vivax dying. Unlike me, and it basically completely negates his own vote on Vivax. This also makes no sense. I was trying to get as much credit as possible from the bus? But actually I was only able to get credit because Vivax was modkilled, something no one could have predicted day one. And in his own words, "Vivax was very unlikely to get lynched." So in that scenario I would have never gotten any credit (because no flip), and instead I would have just thrown Vivax under the bus for day 2. Trying to sheep Rayn's analysis, which is the same exact thing mafia koshi tried to do. Seems mafia was trying to get people to follow dead town Rayn's analysis, and Grack is doing the same thing here. I also don't like how he hardcore defended HF and said he's super obviously townie. This is the weakest of my points. But I don't think it was actually obvious and there were lots of good points made against him. I think dismissing them like this suggests inside knowledge. Anyway just some thoughts. I'm going to do meta analysis tomorrow if I have time. Still not placing a vote but definitely more suspicious of Grack. Slam is useless. Whether it's because of time or because he's mafia, he's been useless. His filter is so sporadic and random I don't even understand many of his posts. So I want to lynch him, but there's just a huge element of randomness that I would want to do it last. | ||
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I'm more bewildered by Slam than anything else. But if he coasts to victory as mafia as the "hahaha, I'm so busy and random LOL" I'm going to actually lose it. | ||
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Complains about time but uses it uselessly 1. Whole last day was going through HF filter (why would we even think HF is accurate, and I think town has been pretty good so far on Vivax and Koshi even though they didn't die from getting lynched). It was all useless and spammy and pointless an Wanted to vote me and never ever justified it. Even said he wanted to martyr Like half his posts are spam, 1/4 are HF posts, and 1/4 are about me. But he never justified it even after I asked him. But is this because he's mafia or because he's just useless? | ||
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If you are able to have 8 pages you are not "low on time", at least not enough to the point where you are this useless and incapable of doing a single actual analysis. Both as town and mafia, it's inexcusable to have the amount of useless spam, sheeping, and generally uncomprehensible material. | ||
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Grack pops in during the HF lynch to say: On May 05 2019 02:10 Grackaroni wrote: What the fuck guys. Holyflare's filter is super super townie. But he later admits he hadn't even read the case on him: On May 05 2019 02:54 Grackaroni wrote: I'm reading through your filter atm VE so I'll see what your case on HF is. | ||
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And it's ok VE, I led the lynch away from MZ/Grack/Slam towards someone a townie most people were already reading as town :p. We wouldn't even have to be worrying about this if I hadn't made the FF post. | ||
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On May 08 2019 21:34 wherebugsgo wrote: I agree on this, particularly as prior to that I didn’t have the impression that grack was closely following the game. If he were more present, I’d buy that he’d been reading and had come to some conclusion, but if that were the case he’d have tried to interact with us and slow down the momentum. Every time grack has some resistance to a lynch though that resistance doesn’t seem to be real/come in a townie fashion. I think townies would interject whenever necessary to prevent mislynches. I’m not getting that impression. There are lots of other factors at play here though. Like I’ve seen bad things in both grack’s and MZ’s play and one has to be town I thought about that but Grack actually does have lots of posts arguing why HF shouldn't be lynched. But it doesn't mean that much to me anyway, because as I know the other lynch he was pushing was on a townie (me). | ||
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I mean dude I'm with you I think he's scummy. But as this is mafia, there could be many explanations and it's not definitive. | ||
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Nevermind bugs, you're 100% right and the reasoning is brilliant. Let's lynch Grack ![]() | ||
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On May 08 2019 21:39 VisceraEyes wrote: This isn't meaningless though, because there's no guarantee he could have landed a lynch on you if he convinced anyone off HF. The only two votes that were going to happen, 100%, was me and HF. And in fact most people were suspicious about me at that point and I think most of the HF voters had originally voted me. So if he convinced someone off of them it would probably go to me; even you and BC were still very suspicious of me at that point. | ||
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On May 08 2019 21:44 wherebugsgo wrote: idk I think grack’s push on me actually makes him seem really townie. Like if I were town in his situation and I didn’t agree with you, VE, I probably wouldn’t rule myself out as scum. Like, from that perspective I don’t think he sees a good reason to townread me because he’s aware to some degree that I can play an active scum game. Unlike slam, who I think doesn’t have enough in the way of opinion-conveying posts, my problem on grack is that it is sometimes hard to follow the logic and rationale for his thoughts. The actual results of those thoughts aren’t my terrible. I also recognize that a scum here would know they need to paint both myself and Pandain badly because it helps in endgame when only one of us is alive The bottom is important. One of bugs and I are going to be alive in the endgame. Also let's not forget that BC's main scumread was Grack. As to the above, I don't really understand why Grack's push on you makes him townie. Explain? | ||
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On May 08 2019 21:45 wherebugsgo wrote: I’m really like 50% on grack. Like I said above I see huge variance in his posts, like some I’d say look really townish and others just make me think no townie would ever post that Mafia is great at making townish points. It's because they actually know what is happening in the game and the "right" thing to do and say. You have to find the things that don't make sense and focus on them. I remember ver or Qatol or Incognoto saying one time that "90% of a posts by a scum are probably okay, it's the 10% slipups that you have to focus on" | ||
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Would you two agree? That will definitely help us in the endgame. | ||
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It's just next would be Grack and not MZ for me. | ||
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I have a very strong town read on bugs. Slight town read on MZ. And then Slam/Grack are the same moderate scum read. | ||
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Does he live in the Fallout universe? | ||
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On May 08 2019 22:16 VisceraEyes wrote: No, he might work at a bank, a casino, he might work in a refridgerator in a basement somewhere that they call the vault. I don't fucking know because I'm not MZ and I know know MZ's specific situation. You know what I do know though? That there IS a such thing as bubbles in the world that signal cannot penetrate and SOMETIMES humans have to be in them for extended periods. And I also tend to think that people are better than to try and use IRL shit to clear them. Oh I was not doubting him | ||
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On May 08 2019 22:20 VisceraEyes wrote: Because he specifically requested it. Because he's right, if he's town he's getting lynched in F3. We've decided it, and I could have sworn you agreed to it. It doesn't matter if he requested it if it doesn't lead anywhere. And I thought he was going to die F3 because everyone thought he was scum except me. If you don't think that then we can convince people | ||
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On May 08 2019 22:23 VisceraEyes wrote: But you were, you facetiously cast doubt on his situation by likening it to a fictional make-believe world. I know you SAY you didn't intend to cast doubt, but like, that's specifically what that statement did. Why? It was meant to be a humorous statement asking what working in a vault meant, and then jokingly suggest he worked in a fallout universe. It was making fun of my ignorance more than anything else. | ||
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On May 06 2019 17:35 Pandain wrote: Okay I'm not sold on MZ. I don't think anything he's done is that scummy besides asking a lot of questions early on, which is suspicious but not conclusive in and of itself. First of all, I think he's playing pretty similar to his last town game in Fibbonaci (Compare Here: tl.net) Then I really like these three posts Is okay with getting lynched given circumstances, still wants to talk about other people. Good town mindset. Being obviously wrong about when the time is. I actually don't think mafia fakes things like this often, so I think he genuinely thought lynch was soon. Mafia tends to view QTs before they post and in general have a better idea of deadlines, so its a town plus for me. I am also lowkey glad BC got shot, and the fact MZ says this hints to me that if he was mafia he probably would understand shooting BC was not the best move. There are still suspicious things about him, but for right now the order for me is Grack -> Slam -> MZ | ||
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On May 08 2019 22:55 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I mean unless you all decide you've been wrong all game and everyone suddenly townreads me, I will be the easiest lylo mislynch of all time. Why are you unwilling to go for Pandain VE? Why does it have to be Grack or Slam? No the easiest mislynch of all time is if you are town and you ask to be lynched ![]() | ||
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On May 08 2019 22:55 VisceraEyes wrote: I want to believe that there's enough information in the thread to solve this shit right now. I just can't put it all together. I'm not strong enough. I don't know what to look for. I hate being one of the people mafia bring to endgame because I'm dumb. ![]() I feel like this too :/ | ||
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On May 08 2019 23:05 VisceraEyes wrote: Mmmmeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhh I rescind my townread of MZ. His early activity WAS high, but it feels like it's mostly in response to the quick wagon on him. He quickly fucks off when no suspicion is on him. A lot of the posts he makes are superficial, like his opening post about lynching scum claims or that one where he talks about agreeing about having multiple wagons. Contrived, meant to appear townie while adding nothing substantive. Is there any mafia that begs this hard to be lynched? | ||
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On May 09 2019 00:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I think Grack and Slam are both town. VE is town. I am town. Bugs vs Pandain; I've got Pandain as scum. MZ>Pandain and we win. Why do you think Grack and slam are town? | ||
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On May 09 2019 01:33 wherebugsgo wrote: K, me & VE & slam town Someone pulls the short straw and has to decide between grack and Pandain at 2v1. At 2v1 I think flipping a coin is still the best bet Can't believe you give slam a town read before me | ||
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On May 09 2019 03:56 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Lmao get ready to be shocked. So please lynch Pandain after me. Why do you think I'm scum?? You still haven't explained any of your reads, including your town reads on grack and slam and scum read on me | ||
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RIP | ||
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On May 09 2019 03:58 Pandain wrote: Why do you think I'm scum?? You still haven't explained any of your reads, including your town reads on grack and slam and scum read on me | ||
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If you're town you're literally martyring yourself for no reason | ||
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When the game finishes and we wasted a lynch on you you are 100% responsible. | ||
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On May 10 2019 00:00 Alakaslam wrote: Pandain, You are 100% certain WBG will be shot before you? Why? 90% certain. He's more townie than me. | ||
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No one else is agreeing with that. They just want to lynch you. And if you're town it doesn't prove at all you're right about me, it just proves you're genuine. Which is not that useful. | ||
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MZ do you think as mafia I would have bussed both of my teammates heavily (who were both the GF and RB) | ||
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On May 10 2019 01:50 Alakaslam wrote: I guess that makes sense, but are you townier than grack and I? What if one of us wanted to convince WBG instead, like I’m trying to see your full headspace but I just realized I’m feeding it to you anyway by asking so nvm. You (at least used to) think I'm mafia mZ thinks im mafia I'm a definite possible last day lynch. Bugs not so much | ||
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On May 10 2019 01:44 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Don't you go running away the second I start to doubt myself Pandain and Bugs Pandain, would you die to get Grack lynched? Of course not. If I'm wrong about grack it's probably you or bugs. I actually have a stronger townread on slam than bugs now | ||
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On May 10 2019 01:50 Alakaslam wrote: I guess that makes sense, but are you townier than grack and I? What if one of us wanted to convince WBG instead, like I’m trying to see your full headspace but I just realized I’m feeding it to you anyway by asking so nvm. Basically there's only one more NK left so it's likely to be bugs | ||
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Just three things do it for me: 1. Scum wanting to follow rayn's list (of which wherebugsgo was at the top) 2. Extreme activity. Most active one here by far, consistently contributing trying to push people. 3. If he's scum, that means we had two townies in the final 6 wanting to martyr themselves. Town deserves to lose. | ||
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Going to be extremely extremely busy for the next 30 hours | ||
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My last scum reads is Grack (biggest one) and then bugs is a small possibility. If I can't get agreement on Grack I'm going to vote bugs. | ||
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Bugs biggest plus is his activity and commitment, it's a huge plus but it's not conclusive. I much prefer to trust Meapak based on how he has been playing with his neck on the line the past two days, and then I liked Slams response to me. I don't actually think he's mafia, but I think it's a better chance than MZ. In regards to my last post where I said I'm never going to lynch bugs, that was actually just a ploy. If I ended up surviving along with bugs into day 3 I would vote him. I just didn't want to say that because if Bugs was mafia he might want to keep me in the game. Again, I want to lynch Grack. Hopefully someone else is here. | ||
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If MZ is actually scum I got hugely played and am 100% responsible for the throw this game. But you have to go with what you believe and ignore what will happen if you're wrong. | ||
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On May 11 2019 04:14 Pandain wrote: Actually I have no idea what the fuck I'll do today. | ||
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Let's lynch Grack. | ||
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What the fuck do i do | ||
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I really don't have confidence in this sort of late-game scenario where you have to find the one last scum. I really thought FF was it but that was wrong. @Grack if you end up being town you should know I heavily considered voting for bugs. | ||
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Like lynching Grack of all people would make no sense. But that's just an aside. | ||
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On May 11 2019 04:53 wherebugsgo wrote: So I just landed in Japan What the fuck is wrong with you people I'M CONFUSED AND I FEEL PRESSURED | ||
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On May 11 2019 04:53 Grackaroni wrote: Duly noted. I probably should have written a case but I spent last night playing BOTW. I killed some centaur dude. It was worth it. it's a great game. | ||
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Grack what was your strategy if you lived today? Shoot bugs and push who? | ||
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By the way, bugs was town to me not because of "activity" but because of his genuine obvious enthusiasm. That kind of stuff can be hard to fake. It was pretty obvious to me when he was pushing HF that he genuinely thought HF was scum. Combine that with stuff like his spreadsheet, and his consistent neverending interactions trying to figure out what people thought it was a strong townread for me. Glad we pulled this off. Really happy with my play this game, getting Koshi, Vivax, and Grack. I was only really wrong on FF. By the way, it is weird when someone is too right. For instance, when Grack said I was easily the best player in the game still alive, it felt that way to me but definitely shouldn't have felt obvious to other people. Then when he defended HF with an absolute certainty that has got to raise alarm bells. There is a huge difference between strongly thinking someone is town and thinking there's absolutely no way he's scum. | ||
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I also think Grack would have won if he didn't get lynched that night. | ||
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On May 11 2019 05:19 Pandain wrote: By the way, it is weird when someone is too right. For instance, when Grack said I was easily the best player in the game still alive, it felt that way to me but definitely shouldn't have felt obvious to other people. Then when he defended HF with an absolute certainty that has got to raise alarm bells. There is a huge difference between strongly thinking someone is town and thinking there's absolutely no way he's scum. To continue off this, if you're always right in a game, it's probably because you know things other players don't know.... | ||
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On May 11 2019 05:22 Alakaslam wrote: This is excellent townhunting advice. I tried my hardest to be cocksure and well you can see where that went lol I thought you were town as soon as you basically said "Fuck off this is all the time I get and I do what seems best, what else do you want from me? " It both was extremely genuine and explained why you were approaching the game in a unique way (like filtering HF) | ||
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If he was scum I was just going to hide in a cave and probably never play another game. | ||
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Thanks to the hosts! You guys are awesome. | ||
Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Pretty much nearly got to the endgame with having one of your team be modkilled and the other shot. On May 11 2019 05:44 Jockmcplop wrote: Haha its fine I was experimenting a bit but it turned out i was actually just being a douche. I'll be back for the next normal game for sure ![]() Can't wait to play with you again. An important lesson to be reinforced from this game is that establishing you as townie can be just as valuable as you actually finding scum. It was pretty obvious to me that Bugs was town, and I had a very strong town read on Slams (and lesser extent MZ) after my interactions with them. It was just as much process of elimination as it was a scum read on Grack which led me to push for his lynch at the end of the day. If you are able to establish yourself as a universal town-read, you are super dangerous to mafia as the game gets to the end-game. VE also was awesome at this even before his vig shot. It was my biggest flaw this game, I had an especially shit night/day 2 and I relied too much on my Vivax vote to help show I was town. Instead it hugely backfired, and my shit night two and inactivity helped a lot of people think I was scum despite me being on the right track most of the game. Definitely good lessons to learn. On May 11 2019 06:33 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Wow Pandain I do owe you a huge apology, honestly your insistence that I was town was really scaring me haha. I wish you had been around more yesterday evening bc you almost had me sold on grack. Well played everyone... I told you I was gonna blow your mind Bugs lol I just couldn't see you as scum asking to be lynched two days in a row. The balls would be enormous. It was definitely possible but I didn't see it likely. I could see maybe one night, but two? I wish I had been more active during the night, unfortunately I got really busy and I was feeling demotivated after the failed FF lynch. | ||
Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Grack the master of shenanigans and bussing. I think there's no real good way to defend yourself just by talking about yourself. Sure, it's important to explain your past actions, but the best way to "prove" your town is just to continue scum hunting and pushing for people, not repeatedly responding to people's concerns about yourself. I'm not sure I convinced anyone I was town until when I started really contributing day 3 and on. | ||
Pandain
United States12989 Posts
If there aren't any new games that people are making, I might create one and have it start in a month or so. Probably just make it a normal game. I've played mafia for a long time and would love to give back in a small way and also try hosting. | ||
Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Of course I had a strong town read on him but if he survived to the end game I was probably voting Bugs. Damn you did that on purpose? Respect. | ||
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