EPTOn November 19 2015 02:49 Half the Sky wrote:
There are no coaches allowed here but I think you are ready for such a game.
100%.There are no coaches allowed here but I think you are ready for such a game.
Dark Tournament Mini Mafia
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Trfel
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Trfel
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/in | ||
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Trfel
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On November 25 2015 06:58 Rels wrote: I know, right?FUCK I WANNA PLAY We'd better both be town for once... Otherwise I will be furious. Okay, at least just me town. Two scum games in a row would just not work for me. But I can't really play until after the holiday anyway so.... I guess I kind of hope this doesn't fill up too quickly.... | ||
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Trfel
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says the guy who has no time and won't be here for the start of the game... | ||
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This is a pre-game excuse. | ||
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Trfel
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Trumpets! The rest of the orchestra doesn't matter one bit  but they messed up at about 1:14  Also, Blazinghand making us lose 4 minutes of our Day 1, worst host ever | ||
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Trfel
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Like, a TON....I should have been in that band, I can do better than that!  | ||
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It was the first video for "Festive Overture" that came up, and it was a pretty lousy one, anyway. No loss. | ||
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On December 01 2015 08:09 The Shining wrote: I didn't have enough time to listen to it, I was busy doing other things.Why would you post it before listening to it? D= I generally listen to the song through iTunes, I'd much rather link a Youtube video than upload the song. Strangely enough, the recording that I normally listen to also has a few errors from the trumpet section. I wonder how long it will take me to find an error-free trumpet section playing the song... | ||
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Trfel
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Disformation, why are you only bringing up Damdred's post now, and not right when he posted it? | ||
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On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote: Okay, what the heck.Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later. Interesting... First of all, if you think about it for a second, you can probably see what I was trying to do. You may not agree with my method, but you know me well enough to see it. Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment? | ||
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Trfel
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On December 01 2015 08:54 Damdred wrote: I think that Damdred is a very likely mafia.I do know what you are trying to do, and if you are fishing you might want to try a different type of bait. Secondly could be you don't care about reading the thread, and just trying to find someone to put suspicions on. Someone please tell me if I am sane or not. | ||
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Trfel
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I need to go do some stuff, so I should explain this now instead of hoping someone else sees it. Required knowledge: On December 01 2015 06:06 LightningStrike wrote: oh another pre game excuse: I wont be here until like 4 hours after game start due to college class into going out to eat with my parents :o 44 minutes after the start of the game (by deadline time, not actual start, thanks Blazinghand), I posted this: On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote: Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while. Damdred questioned me (Trfel) with this post: On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote: I pressured him, and he responded here:Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later. Interesting... On December 01 2015 08:54 Damdred wrote: The key phrases are in bold.I do know what you are trying to do, and if you are fishing you might want to try a different type of bait. Secondly could be you don't care about reading the thread, and just trying to find someone to put suspicions on. Basically, Damdred initially was suspicious of me (Trfel) for not reading the thread and trying to find someone to be suspicious of. And in his initial post with these suspicious, he specifically stated that these suspicions of me are only valid because of LightningStrike's pre-game excuse. LightningStrike's pre-game excuse has no implication on my alignment whatsoever. Damdred is basically saying that because my suspicion of LightningStrike was invalid, I was suspicious. However, why would I as mafia make a post about a player's inactivity when that player said, before the game, that they wouldn't be around at the start of the game? There is zero reason for mafia to do this. The only thing that LightningStrike's pre-game excuse says about my play is that my reason to be suspicious of LightningStrike was invalid. First, it was invalid without the pre-game excuse as well. And second, my argument being invalid doesn't have any relevance on my alignment. As does reading posts in the thread that were made before the game started. Damdred failed to address the main question that I asked, which was why LightningStrike's pre-game excuse affects my alignment. His suspicion of me made zero sense, and Damdred is a very sensible player as town. Combine this with his entrance post, completely ignoring everyone else in the thread and saying that his play would follow his (rough) scum meta of fewer posts more focused on analysis. | ||
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Trfel
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My communication skills appear to be miserable. I'll try to reread the thread later tonight. Damdred, apologies for using that type of read. Regardless of whether or not I am right, that creates stupid arguments and makes the game miserable. Thanks for being a bit more sensible than I am (regardless of alignment). | ||
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On December 01 2015 10:08 Half the Sky wrote: Not sure exactly what you're getting at here, but the final two lines of the post you quoted were purely aimed at Damdred's first post of the game, and not the rest of his play. I may be misreading/misunderstanding, sorry if you realized that already.Backtracking to this post. No issues with the first part, but I'm not sure why he thinks it's unreasonable as town when you are clearly focused on one person that much that of course you will miss the flying conversation in the thread. Especially more suspicious to me if this isn't his scum meta, and honestly given my poor track record of sniping mafia Damdred, I'm not sure what/how to really measure this. It looks like a reach for me. | ||
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On December 01 2015 08:49 disformation wrote: Wait a second, disformation...Tired as hell. When I first read it I was like kinda amused by the hero thing, triggering my immediate reaction (the first post). Then I read it again and thought that it was a kinda unusual thing for Damdred to post and remembered that I was criticized for a very similar thing (over constructed first post shortly after the start of the game) in my first game here. So I asked him the same question I was asked. The advise itself is probably valid though. You've only rolled town on TL, correct? So if you were town and someone questioned you for a "constructed" post, then why would you ask someone else about this? What did you hope to get out of your question? Based on Damdred's answers, do you have a conclusion now? | ||
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I mean, why are you asking, anyway? I'm the most obvious town in the game by a landslide, with my amazing play and crazy read abilities! | ||
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On December 01 2015 12:18 LightningStrike wrote: Specifically, what comments did he make that were relevant to the game, and why do they make him town?DYH seems townlean he actually tried to comment on stuff that is relevant to the game. Damdred: (and PLEASE, no one else answer this, don't be stupid...): I'm sorry, I know you don't want to talk about this, but it's driving me insane. Hypothetical scenario 1: Trfel makes a post an hour into a mafia game casting suspicions on Joe for not having posted. Hypothetical scenario 2: Trfel makes a post an hour into a mafia game casting suspicions on Bob for not having posted. Bob said before the game that he would not be present for the first few hours of the game. What difference do you see between these two scenarios? Palmar seems like obvious town. There's one thing I hope to check eventually, though. I kind of want to lynch The Shining, but that seems like a very bad idea right now. He's put in a bunch of effort (regardless of alignment) on a busy day for him. Most of the problems that I have with his posts are wording, tone, and a bit of consistency, which aren't the most reliable. I do feel that his posting somewhat fits mafia motivation, but I'm nowhere near confident enough to be happy lynching him now. I feel that The Shining's alignment will become very clear with a bit more time. I still think that Damdred is mafia, but I remembered that the past several times I've played with Damdred (both town) I've always thought he was mafia I'm guessing that I have some preconceived notions for what I expect Damdred to do, and whenever he doesn't behave exactly as I would expect him to, I think he's mafia. And it seems to be very hard for me to separate this from mafia motivations...Did anyone else find Damdred's townread of The Shining a bit off? Palmar commented on why the third point is invalid, which I completely agree with. | ||
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Trfel
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On December 01 2015 18:41 Rels wrote: What part of the "not lynching The Shining" part did you miss?1 - this is sooooo non commital. 2 - we're right on the period Shining has no internet. So I have no idea what additionnal info you will have when he AFK for 24 hours. | ||
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Trfel
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Given how aware he is of his own meta, and the events of last game (a lengthy discussion about whether MoosyDoosy would intentionally be useless as mafia to trick everyone using his meta), are you still happy with this read? And if this is a read that you are happy with it now, imagine that this continues for another day or two. Why would you then need to lynch MoosyDoosy? Why would this make your townread invalid? Anyway, I really need to go to bed. Good night. | ||
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On December 02 2015 00:16 Damdred wrote: I don't see a difference. What difference do you see between them (with regards to my alignment)?Of course I see a difference, but what was my play? + Show Spoiler [Explanation] + Two more hypothetical scenarios... Hypothetical scenario A: Trfel knew that Bob made the pre-game post about not being there. What makes mafia!Trfel more likely to scumread Bob than town!Trfel? Hypothetical scenario B: Trfel didn't know that Bob made the pre-game post about not being there. Why is it any different that Trfel posted suspicions of Bob instead of any of the other players who hadn't posted yet and had no pre-game excuse? Trfel didn't know the difference at the time, he could have posted about any of them. | ||
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On December 01 2015 18:50 Rels wrote: Under normal circumstances, I'd be suspicious of The Shining here and would be maybe willing to lynch him Day 1. However, since The Shining probably won't be able to play much today, and wasn't 100% there yesterday, I think that giving him a Day 1 pass is probably best.I thought I read "I kind of want to lynch The Shining" somewhere in that post. This part about Shining reads to me as "I'm OK lynching Shining but I'll need someone to convince me." Sorry that wasn't clear in my initial posts. Is anyone else kind of suspicious of Rels? The way that he has been throwing suspicions at everyone feels like he's trying to keep his options open to lynch anyone he chooses. I don't recall him posting a single townread (which isn't that important), but the way he's been pressuring so many people without follow through or without a serious push seem so strange. The vote on DoYouHas feels extremely opportunistic, as well. I was really hoping that DoYouHas wouldn't be brought up for a while, I wanted to see what he did if he wasn't bothered. I remember checking the exact same thing that Rels mentioned earlier, and I'm not entirely on board, but I'll let DoYouHas speak for himself. | ||
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On December 02 2015 01:32 Rels wrote: You know, I take back my suspicion. Under normal circumstances it would be valid, but given the circumstances I'm kind of in the same place. The big thing is the lack of follow through, then, and that's very subjective; I'll look again later.Yep I'm suspicious of too many people. I would lynch Damdred or DYH right now; fidei is weird; HTS' post on LS makes a lot of sense. Onegu and kush are useless. By saying that Half the Sky's post on LightningStrike makes sense, are you saying that you think that LightningStrike is scum, or Half the Sky is town, or both? | ||
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On December 02 2015 01:36 LightningStrike wrote: Why do you think that my attack on geript in that game is relevant to my alignment this game?Hmm maybe but I remember him attacking Geript in Student V for imposing a limit of how many posts he would make per phase and e was scum there so(shrugs). Sorry, I just really don't see the connection. | ||
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Trfel
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I don't have many town reads this game at all, and I'm wondering why we see things so differently. It could very well be that I'm being stupid, in which case I'd like to why, so I can be a little less stupid. | ||
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Trfel
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On December 02 2015 01:45 LightningStrike wrote: Here you go.Because it seemed like similar manner on what you did to me this game..... Anyways you got any scum reads so far? I don't have time to dive into anything in depth, so I'm talking to the people who are here. LightningStrike, why didn't you respond to this post? I must say that pending an answer to the above question, I kind of think that LightningStrike is town. | ||
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Town lean on disformation. Would really appreciate answers from LightningStrike and Damdred, questions asked previously. | ||
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The sad thing is that I think Damdred is capable of doing this as town. However, he was actually quite reasonable with me last game, where I was playing extremely obnoxiously. I don't know why he would be willing to work with me there and not here if he's town. | ||
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Trfel
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It's not possibly TMI. The mafia team cannot know if there is a vigilante in the setup or not at this time. | ||
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On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I didn't mean to criticize Rels for being nitpicky, that doesn't really describe his play. I had two reasons to suspect Rels:Regarding Rels, I recall him being nitpicky from his town games but nothing about the nitpicking jumps out as scumlike. Trfel why do you think he's being opportunistic with DYH? (It was based off a read progression and not activity.) 1. I didn't see a direction from his posting 2. He was suspicious of a ton of people with few/no townreads I didn't review his filter before I said this, though. Right when I said this, Rels made a post clarifying his stance. If Rels' filter shows a clear and natural progression that results in these scumreads, and I can see a sensible direction, then I'm fine with Rels for now. That should be fairly easy to check, I'll do so this evening. | ||
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On December 02 2015 06:11 Palmar wrote: I note that this is very similar to what Damdred was saying earlier. And Palmar said it was stupid then.This is a shitty read, but it might actually be brilliant. Shining said he'd leave yesterday when arguing with me, yet he kept coming back to the thread. If he is mafia he has already realized I'm an obnoxious bastard who pushes shit without mercy. He created an excuse for himself to leave the thread and then didn't use it. That drive to make me understand that I'm being dumb as shit is actually kinda townie. When I think about it I definitely don't want to lynch Shining today. Not a new realization at all, Palmar | ||
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On December 02 2015 08:23 Damdred wrote: So technically this statement is correct if you include zero as an acceptable degree for an answer, or you're saying that I don't exist.Not exactly sure how I'm refusing to work with anyone when I've answered everything asked of me to carrying degrees. I don't know what you expect me to do. This is intolerable. The worst part is that you're probably town and just this obnoxious. | ||
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I quit until Damdred is dead, however that happens. | ||
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On December 02 2015 01:17 Trfel wrote: The question elaborates on a nested quote. To clarify:I don't see a difference. What difference do you see between them (with regards to my alignment)? + Show Spoiler [Explanation] + Two more hypothetical scenarios... Hypothetical scenario A: Trfel knew that Bob made the pre-game post about not being there. What makes mafia!Trfel more likely to scumread Bob than town!Trfel? Hypothetical scenario B: Trfel didn't know that Bob made the pre-game post about not being there. Why is it any different that Trfel posted suspicions of Bob instead of any of the other players who hadn't posted yet and had no pre-game excuse? Trfel didn't know the difference at the time, he could have posted about any of them. I am NOT saying that if there is indeed a logical gap here, that you are scum 100%. I personally do not understand the logic in one of your early posts, and I've tried to explain that. Rels also questioned the same thing. I do not think that logical failures make someone 100% mafia, but if I can better understand the thought process used when the post was constructed, I can better understand the follow up and the thought process/mindset behind the series of posts. | ||
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I think I asked LightningStrike two very pointed questions, where there were a lot of answers he could have said that would be "wrong". And he answered both of them correctly. Not only that, but he had a really relaxed tone when doing so. On December 01 2015 20:02 LightningStrike wrote: Like here, when I asked him about his read on DoYouHas. I guess this doesn't objectively say much, but I like it anyway.He wasn't really afraid to post his thoughts on the stuff when he was around and I know it's limited content but still when he was around he did try to be involved a little bit. I might be a huge sucker for people. The more important thing is that I feel that the way that LightningStrike's suspicion on me changed over the course of the game (mostly the early parts) has been really natural. He seemed genuinely frustrated, and I could see how that frustration led him to push me. The amount that he pushed me felt like more than scum would push, knowing that it's wrong and having no support, and it matched the words he was saying. I'm not extremely confident on LightningStrike being town, and it's hard to explain, but I don't want to lynch him. | ||
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On December 03 2015 02:38 kushm4sta wrote: I would consider Half the Sky potentially lynchable here.Just skimmed htf. Scumsville. Looks like she is coming up with fake arguments or talking about stuff that's not alignment indicative. Doubt tget people would be willing to lynch tho What are some specific instances of the things you mentioned? | ||
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When you provided the list of games that DoYouHas has played... did you read his filter from the games, or look into the games in any way? | ||
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On December 02 2015 23:07 Half the Sky wrote: First of all, really sorry that you aren't feeling well. Hope you can recover soon.Alright, I just woke up, and I am not feeling any better. I'm headed to a doctor's appointment in an hour, but I am hoping to get back in thread barring anything serious. I fully realise I have a shittonne to catch up on - if anyone has any questions for me, or anything specific they want me to weigh on, please prompt me and I'll do so when I return. Why did you vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta? Why didn't you include LightningStrike in the lynch list? Now that he's (at least mostly, I think?) answered your questions, what do you think about him? Why did your read on me (Trfel) change? | ||
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On December 03 2015 03:01 LightningStrike wrote: And where did you get that conclusion from?read her filter if you want to see her progression on me  + Show Spoiler + She thinks I town. | ||
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On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote: First, assuming that if DoYouHas is scum, he is playing to survive and is not giving up.Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped. Gnight folks @LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels. This isn't a post that scum would make. Scum would need to come up with an argument here, some sort of post or push on someone. The absolute worst thing for survival is to do nothing. But doing nothing is likely to come from town who can't conclusively find scum, especially if he is holding himself to only using strong reads, as he said earlier. Looking at DoYouHas' posts about 18 hours ago, I don't really think that those posts come from scum who is giving up. It's possible, but less likely I think. | ||
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"I don't think you are mafia for this" means that Half the Sky is not scum reading you for one specific thing in your filter. As in, she could be scum reading you for the entire rest of your filter. And that's not a townread on that one thing either. Does anyone know if LightningStrike is generally this self-conscious as town with regards to other people's townreads on him? To make a big jump like this and try to assume everything is a townread? Because this is making me doubt my earlier town lean on him. | ||
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Putting off reading Damdred until he answers my question, it would help me to read him greatly. Otherwise, I could lynch MoosyDoosy today. I don't want to lynch Onegu today for stupid reasons. | ||
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On December 03 2015 03:15 disformation wrote: Oh, it happens a ton.Hm? I have seen a bunch of scum giving up early D1 to not give information/out of frustration. scott did this one game (I think it was NSM10), Sulfurus did this in NSM13. Breshke just straight up vanished D2 in NSM17. I just don't feel that DoYouHas' series of posts is that of scum who is giving up. Do you disagree? Assuming that those posts are not from scum giving up, then that means that if he is scum, something changed in those ~5 hours that led him to give up. I'm going to say there's basically no way that he made that post for a WIFOM play, that's just so unlikely that I refuse to consider it as a possibility. I don't think that DoYouHas is 100% town, but he's probably town, and almost definitely a bad lynch for today. Do you disagree with anything? Am I missing something? | ||
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On December 03 2015 03:27 Fidei86 wrote: That's one reason, I suppose, though I hate that reason.16/26. The only reason not to policy lynch Onegu is that he will almost certainly be replaced for inactivity. I'm probably going to put my vote on Moosy once i finish my run through. He has been useless and I can't stand people who put keeping their own meta pure ahead of winning the f***ing game. Here's the second reason. Warning in advance, it's horrible and will probably make you want to tear your hair out. Actually, I'll put it in spoiler because it's too painful. + Show Spoiler + Onegu really likes playing scum, and will often complain when he rolls town. His only post this game feels very dry and uninspired, which to me suggests that he is town. Also, this is really bad, but were he scum he might want to come back and post more, however he'd probably want to do that as town too, so this second point most likely is useless. Note that this isn't a townread, this is just an "I don't want to lynch him". | ||
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On December 03 2015 03:35 Rels wrote: I guess I can sort of see your point, however I think it's really easy to take a filter and throw out a random conclusion.I had the opposite feeling. It reminded me of my feeling when playing scum; like I say to myself "OK I need to filter dive X and Y and make some analysis", then it's haaaaaard to do because it's hard to play scum, so sometimes I give up. I can see scum!DYH imagining "ok I need to filter dive those 4 players", reading quickly their filters, and giving up. Also, disformation's post is really brilliant. I hadn't thought of this. On December 03 2015 03:23 disformation wrote: If it's like you say, he would have just vanished instead of making that post. Five hours later is a long time, that's not a result of quickly skimming filters.Hm. Yes, that last post is a bit strange from the perspective. I guess scum would just not post any more at that point and just GTFO... boy this game is getting hard already and it is only D1. xD It's possible that he is mafia here and gave up and then decided to make that post much later. It's just much, much more likely that he's town and really just ended up with no strong [scum] conclusions. Either way, I don't think he's a good lynch. | ||
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When he checked his role PM, he said he was town, and he got really frustrated. Then three minutes later, he seemed quite happy. Throughout his filter, he seems really happy and there's no hint of frustration at all. This doesn't match. | ||
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There's everything you could ask for except for baby seals. Voting for MoosyDoosy. You should, too. | ||
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Kind of suggests that he is town, since the reads aren't exactly the same in the small points but do match in the big picture. And that he's not editing his posts. But mostly it's just funny. | ||
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How does that come from the same person who is scared of Half the Sky being mafia, I would assume that you want her to be town as well? | ||
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On December 01 2015 08:37 Rels wrote: I'm going to bring this up again. Please, hear me out, but I DO NOT WANT TO START A MECHANICS DISCUSSION.Yo. If you're boxer you fucking shut up. There is two possible mafia setups: one with two possible town setups with one boxer each so it doesn't matter. And one when we have either boxer + vet, or cop + vig. In that last case, mafia wants to roleblock their kill target in the vet setup, or roleblock someone else on the cop + vig setup. Boxer claiming would make them know what is the thing to do. Tldr if you're boxer you shut up unless you're getting lynched. Tldr 2 the two people pushing for boxer to claim are suspicious. Damdred and doyouhas First, I will assume that the argument that Rels presents about the BoxeR claiming is 100% correct. No matter what. No questions asked. Just for the purpose of this argument. With this assumption, and two people telling the BoxeR to claim, it's important for this argument to be made as quickly as possible so that the BoxeR can see it and not claim. The thing is, Rels presents a really well-explained argument for this. It kind of feels too good to be true. He's already stopped to analyze the setups from a mafia perspective, and see what they know, and see what town knows. He's 100% sure that mafia doesn't know which setup the game uses, despite the standard Blazinghand newbie game using a similar four-option setup where the mafia team IS told the setup. Like, I know that Rels is good. But is he really this good? His first post of the game, 37 minutes after the day began.... It doesn't feel quite right. Side note, I remember that Half the Sky mentioned that she'd only played with kushm4sta before in Carol of the Bells. Which is wrong, since we all played in I believe Student Mafia IV (one of the Student Mafia games, before the Newbie Student mafias), and kushm4sta was in that game and actually sort of played. He was mafia, so I'm surprised that Half the Sky forgot that. But I just remembered that kushm4sta actually was in Carol of the Bells. If you have any doubt that kushm4sta is capable of playing this lazily as town, look at his play from Carol of the Bells. He had (arguably) the most important town power role in the game. A mafia player baited the role to claim, and the entire thread yelled at how stupid that request was. Didn't matter, kushm4sta didn't care and just claimed his role and died. In retrospect, it was pretty darn hilarious, but at the time it was infuriating. | ||
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On December 03 2015 04:47 disformation wrote: MoosyDoosy is mafia and you should vote him.Got noms. @the Rels part: you know that this is a fear read, right?^^ Meh. I don't like MoosyDoosy either. Nearly forgot about his flurry of one liner posts and then vanishing last night... *sigh* "Fear read" is a stupid phrase (the only important thing it hints at is adding uncertainty/keeping options open, something like that, but it's much better to just say that and be specific). And this isn't a fear read, anyway. To me, Rels' post doesn't sound like it comes from town, and I described why. I'm not saying that Rels' play is towny, but he's capable of it as mafia so I'm scared of him. I'm saying that I don't think that this post comes from town and it's much easier to come from scum. Not making any conclusions yet but I'd like to see what people think about this post. | ||
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On December 03 2015 04:50 Half the Sky wrote: Eh, wow. My memory really is awful.No I did not forget that. I know I cited both games. And kush wasn't mafia in the Student game. No way. I remember the lynch trains bouncing between both of us and both of us were town and I had modconfirmed myself because I posted after the bloody deadline. My bad, sorry about that. (cries in a corner) To answer your questions:
Half the Sky, MoosyDoosy is mafia and needs to be lynched. Trust me. | ||
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On December 03 2015 05:15 disformation wrote: Maybe this is just not a good argument at all. One more try.Okay. Let me try. So you assume that the good play for town/boxeR is to not claim. Two people say the opposite. So Rels rushes to the help of town and presents a good argument why boxeR should not claim. So a) he is town or b) he wants the town cred. He analyzes the setup, which is possible as either alignment. hmmm... the op doesn't say whether mafia knows the setup or not... and you are right he seems pretty convinced that mafia does not know the setup. This part is kinda strange indeed... The parts about it feels too good and is he this good confuse me a bit though. Like what do they add to this argument, besides making it look like a fear read a lot? =p maybe I should go and read rels more in depth... The key word is that Rels is rushing to the aid of town. Rushing, because speed is important. And his post is extremely knowledgeable, and is a really comprehensive explanation. I find it hard to believe that he got confirmation that scum didn't know the setup in time to make this post, for example. If Rels was around earlier, he should have been posting. Town wouldn't avoid posting like that. Basically, Rels took extra time to make sure his argument was completely explained and correct, when town wants to post as quickly as possible. This makes me wonder if the motivation behind the post is, instead of helping town, to make himself look better, which would mean that Rels is mafia. The argument falls apart if Rels is good enough to make this post as town without taking much extra time, which is what I was trying to get at. That seems really unlikely, but I can't completely rule it out. | ||
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On December 03 2015 05:27 Half the Sky wrote: I'm not making a read on kushm4sta.Trfel, are you metareading kush town based on meta (laziness in Carol) and if so realising you were wrong on his game in student 4 (he was actually town in that game, but not lurky as Carol obv) does that change your read on him? Or were there other things you'd looked at that I missed? I'm saying that lynching him for laziness alone is really stupid, since MoosyDoosy is obviously scum and should be lynched instead. | ||
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On December 03 2015 05:36 disformation wrote: Oh, no, don't ever lynch anyone over MoosyDoosy Hmm... did he need to wait for confirmation? Maybe he was reading the op and based on that formed an assumption? Though he sounds very convinced for an assumption... So yeah this is shady and probably good to keep in mind. The is he good enough or not part is kinda WIFOM though. Don't want to lynch him over MD solely for that. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:18 The Shining wrote: MoosyDoosy is basically guaranteed mafia.So he's being bussed, is town or his team is one of the arms or non voters. Hm. Can't deny Moosy is prime d1 lynchbait tho, I just checked his filter. Looks like he did nothing after talkinng to me about my Fid read except ask who was pro/anti Rels and took a rest for what is now 21 hrs. Sigh. He said he'd play Day 1. He's sort of playing Day 1, but he's not actually pushing anything. He's not being obnoxious, but he's not doing anything. Compare to last game as town, he was playing as obnoxiously as possible, but was still invested in solving the game, still had a push. The contrast is pretty large. He hates being town, loves being scum. He was mad to roll town, as he said, but three minutes later he was happy and asking questions. Throughout his entire filter he's been very happy and content, no complaints about rolling town at all. That's mafia. | ||
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MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's bad. MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's useless. MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's obnoxious. MoosyDoosy is being lynched because his play has too many contradictions and has no possible town mindset behind it, while it fits perfectly with mafia motivation of contributing as little as possible, in this case relying on meta to avoid the Day 1 lynch. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:27 Palmar wrote: Maybe it's a policy lynch for you, but I think I actually know what I'm doing.This is 100% a policy lynch. That being said, intentionally bad players should be policy lynched. I see no effort at all from moosy trying to actually help this game. | ||
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I've explained why MoosyDoosy's play is mafia in this game, regardless of meta. It's really solid. Meta actually helps to show why MoosyDoosy is mafia in this case. As town, even while being as obnoxious as possible, he still shows an interest in solving the game. You can see it through the "I'm trying not to do anything". For example, last game, he kept pushing FarahBlackwing really confidently, despite martyring as a power role. Like, I'm not going to dig up a bunch of past games or pull up a ton of posts. If you read it, you should see for yourself. I've told you what to look for. It's not something I can make any clearer. This is the type of read I've had by far the most success with. Mindset and mafia motivation. When applied correctly, it's basically never wrong. The best part is that it's easy to apply correctly. The downside is that it's really hard to explain. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:32 Palmar wrote: Also when he says he will play, and sort of pretends to play, but isn't actually playing the game/isn't actually invested in the game.Explain the bolded, I couldn't find any contradictions in it aside from the grumpy/happy. Why are you saying there are too many? Two major contradictions like that in a short filter is pretty telling. These aren't logic contradictions or read changes, mindset contradictions are much more powerful. | ||
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Marvellosity told me what I needed to do to improve my mafia play, I tried it this game, with no results. Maybe my playstyle is just too different from everyone else's so that I can't actually play mafia any more. Maybe I just need to sheep people all the time like I used to. | ||
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If you avoid lynching MoosyDoosy because Damdred said so, I'll be extremely displeased. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:41 disformation wrote: MoosyDoosy was fricking obvious town last game.To be totally honest: I totally do not like MoosyDoosy. Last game, after nearly lynching himself as the martyr D1 he proceeded to shoot a nullread (who was town) over his two scum reads (who where also both town), cause he was convinced he would be able to lynch his both scum reads anyway. I was one of those two scum reads, so I am a bit biased. To be fair my D1 last game was super horrible. So I am probably at least somewhat biased against MoosyDoosy. Meanwhile: upgrading Damdred's town lean to a town read. Give me a few mins to try and forget my dislike of MoosyDoosy to see, which lynch is think is better, since I a) nearly forgot LS was in this game (usually a bad sign) and b) the points Damdred has on him look pretty valid. Like, really really obvious. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:41 Palmar wrote: For the record, I tried my best.No you need to just say things that make sense to the people you're talking to. Half the skill in mafia is to recognize your crowd and appeal to it. Being right and unable to convince people you are makes you just as terrible as someone who is wrong all the time. I realize that that doesn't change anything, but I did. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:54 Half the Sky wrote: Uh, the second post you quoted came after the first. Not sure what you're getting at.This is the question I want to ask folks - why is he null reading Trfel based on the bolded? | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:00 Palmar wrote: I've done so, perhaps it was too simple for you to consider it a case.Btw, the people who are pushing lynches (damdred -> LS, Trfel -> MD and Shining -> Trfel??). Can you all summarize your points in a short case. It makes it so much easier for everyone involved if people actually build cases. I'd be building one if I had one (I tried to summarize my concerns about shining last night). I just don't quite know what I want to do right now. You didn't agree, and I don't think that I can change your mind, so I won't try. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:04 Palmar wrote: Palmar, you're not doing anything yourself, so you're going to have to stop this.Do people like... ever... build good cases anymore? Remember in Mini Mafia Down Under 2? We had a really good case and push against Alakaslam and you ruined it for a policy lynch. I realize that you're extremely talented and one of the best players on the site, but it's still possible that once in a while, someone else knows something that you don't (and just because they can't explain it well doesn't invalidate this). You don't need to attack me as well. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:14 LightningStrike wrote: You think that Damdred is town?Okay DAMDRED IS A FUCKING IDIOT WHY FORGOT TO READ I ME BEEN BUT HE READ ME CORRECTLY ALL BUT THE TIME HE BEEN MAFIA............. Dropping my vote on MD IDK HOME BUT I VT I DON'T TO DIE NOW. ##Vote:MooseyDoosey | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:16 The Shining wrote: That's what I thought too, but he also called Damdred an idiot and voted for MoosyDoosy. So I'm not sure.Ummmmmmmmmmmm. If I read that correctly, I think he's saying the only time Damdreds ever read him wrong is as scum. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:19 Rels wrote: I wasn't scumreading Half the Sky, I was being tangential. And I was wrong, anyway My god. I can't rebute an accusation that finishes by "if Rels is town doing that, then he's super good". I didn't plan to post anything than "yo all good night" when Damdred posted about boxer. What did she say exactly ? | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:20 The Shining wrote: That reaction seems very similar to what I would expect from LightningStrike as town. Why do you think otherwise?I'm having trouble ever remembering a time LS has reacted that way to being scummed/voted, and most of the times we've played together he was town. Except that one time he was scum. But he didn't react this way, either. Can't tell if it's an attempt to get that "genuine anger townread" that's been floating around games lately. I remember one game we played not too long ago where every time someone suspected him he accused them of being on crack. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:25 Fidei86 wrote: Does accusing someone of being on crack count as fighting people on somewhat sensible grounds?Okay that's just not true Trfel. I'm getting cold feet because LS usually fights his corner on somewhat sensible grounds. I've never seen a response like that before. Hmm. If so, then I disagree. If not, I will the past game. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:31 The Shining wrote: I thought he said he was in the middle of coming home from class?Mmmm I didn't read or play that game. But the votes are tied and still people not voting. Does it make sense to freak like that then afk if ur town? I've never been good at reading LS so I'm genuinely asking hefe | ||
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Interesting. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:50 The Shining wrote: I think that playing into modkills/replacements is stupid.With the amount of voting reminders I've received, it wouldn't shock me if both MD and Onegu were modkilled. But that doesn't help us figure out the lynch here. I will say if either one ninjas in a vote before EoD and doesn't post anything, its going to look really bad. I'd just like to know if I've gone completely insane. Or perhaps I was never sane to begin with. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:53 Palmar wrote: He claimed VT.Like I'm the biggest advocate of intelligent sheeping being a very useful skill to have. Did LS claim yet? | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:54 LightningStrike wrote: Can you please clarify, what do you think about Damdred?I back and LIKE I SAID FUCKING VANILLA TOWN -__- Anyways I getting lynched rip LYNCH MOOSEYDOOSEY PLEASE IF I DON'T GET LYNCHED OR AFTER I GET LYNCHED. | ||
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It seems very opportunistic. I wish I had a chance to wait for him to explain it. | ||
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LS said that after he died, lynch MoosyDoosy. I asked him why, he said that he is voting MoosyDoosy to save himself. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:54 LightningStrike wrote: I back and LIKE I SAID FUCKING VANILLA TOWN -__- Anyways I getting lynched rip LYNCH MOOSEYDOOSEY PLEASE IF I DON'T GET LYNCHED OR AFTER I GET LYNCHED. On December 03 2015 07:56 LightningStrike wrote: I ONLY ON HIM TO SAVE MY FUCKNIG LIFE DUH | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:08 Damdred wrote: Everything about his play says town except for the thing that I quoted.LS has basically mod confirmed himself as town. That's pretty shitty but we have to work with it I guess. I actually think that the thing that I quoted is extremely scummy, such that he can't be town. Do you think otherwise, and if so can you please explain it to me so that I can be comfortable with my LightningStrike townread? Also, NocturneMage, I apologize for you having replaced into a mafia slot. At least I have a fair opportunity for revenge. | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:11 Damdred wrote: Like, I understand this. But I think there's a small chance he would do this as mafia if there's someone in the mafia QT instructing him to do so.LS freaked out after deadline thinking he got lynched and said GG i'm VT. It was as deadline hit or a few seconds after, so he thought he was lynched. Can you please explain how the thing I quoted might come from town, or why it doesn't ensure he is scum? | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:15 Damdred wrote: Damdred. You said that you weren't ignoring me and that you would answer my question.Either way its nto worth talking about its over my opinon was hes basically confirmed himself town. Oh well You didn't answer my question. And you're ignoring me now. I'm not asking for you, I'm asking for me, because I'm trying to figure this out in my mind and you are seeing something that I'm not and I'd appreciate it if you would help me. Like, I'm sorry if my actions have come across as me being a jerk. You are one of the players that I respect the most of everyone on TL Mafia, as both a player and a person. I have never meant to say otherwise. | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:22 LightningStrike wrote: Do you have any stance on MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage now?Good night Rels. When you come back give thoughts about the game after you went to sleep please? | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:23 Fecalfeast wrote: Damdred?First person to reply decides which filter I read first | ||
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However, the bulk of his play seems like a town lean (pre-yelling) to me. I tried to explain why earlier. The yelling itself seemed extremely towny, I'm used to LightningStrike reacting like that as town and the pre-lynch post is a strong town indicator. All of this combined makes me confident in my LightningStrike town read, were it not for the scummy thing above. Right now my guess is that LightningStrike is town and the thing that I mentioned isn't as important as I thought, even if I'm not quite sure why yet. There is no mafia motivation for it, so maybe that's why it's unimportant. I'm not quite as confident in MoosyDoosy being scum any more, because generally people would listen to me when I'm right. Like, I don't see how I could be wrong, however I need to clear my head and take another look. I think he is likely scum, though. I'm not sure what his post-deadline posts suggest, I'm really terrible at reading into emotions so I might have to ignore those. | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote: I guess you're right, it's just a completely irrational extension of desperation to survive. And LightningStrike really loves to survive, even if most town generally play to find scum instead of to survive.Trfel I honestly don't know what you want me to say, I interacted with you when it was important eod. You were obviously fishing early d1 to try to drag something out a sort of trap if you would, but you went off the rails when I put my own trap around you. Which resulted in your town read. Though your over reaction about it over all is sort of concerning. The LS thing isn't really alignment indicative, trying to save your life goes both ways. LS is town though so shrug. That makes sense, thanks. | ||
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Because if not, there's really no reason for me to play. I'd rather not waste my time trying to reread all of that End of Day stuff. | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:52 Fecalfeast wrote: I have to make a ton of posts to get my presence acknowledged enough to be told that I'm an idiot.I like playing with everyone man what's up? No one responds to me with just one post. No one listens to me or respects my opinion at all, no one wants to work with me. I feel like I'm off solving the game in my own world, which is no fun at all. And my entire mafia playstyle/theory is based on collaboration... | ||
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On December 03 2015 09:04 The Shining wrote: I still think I caught scum and everyone just ignored me. No one told me why I was wrong, they just said that they either disagreed or I was stupid, or both.I've played in a bunch of games with you and never had a problem and never BMd you that I can remember. We even rolled scum together once and won that game with DarthPunk. The only reason I'm questioning you is to get a better grasp on your read progression and whether I can see town motivation behind it. It's a part of playing the game. Like objectively, you went from your 100% scumread MD onto LS after having him as a townlean. But I looked in your filter and you were adamant about staying on Moosy until LS made those weird posts about lynching MD cuz he's scum but only voting him to save himself. But you switched after that, not before that, which makes me think you really did believe that LS was scum because of it. And afterwards the language you use(I can't see that post coming from town) but he was a townlean throughout minus that post felt off but the willingness to engage Damdred to try and see what Damdred is seeing about LS being locktown feels like it could come from town reconsidering a read. I just don't understand why you're feeling so disheartened and down. Everyone instead decided to lynch my townread, and call me extremely suspicious and stupid for what I think are awful reasons. I have yet to decide if that was mafia motivated or not. When I commented on this, I was basically told that I'm horrible and it's all my fault. Throughout the game, I've had an awful time trying to get questions answered and trying to talk to people. It feels basically impossible. Whether I'm asking them to explain something they said that I'm struggling to understand or if I'm asking them what they think about my reads. Of course I'm miserable. | ||
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My preferred lynch was always MoosyDoosy, and I was going to keep my vote on him as protest assuming that it didn't matter. When the lynch started shifting from MoosyDoosy to kushm4sta, LightningStrike made two posts that I thought nearly confirmed him as mafia. I didn't have a read on kushm4sta, and I decided that it was more likely that I was stupid and wrong on LightningStrike, so I changed my vote to lynch him instead of kushm4sta. | ||
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On December 03 2015 09:16 Fecalfeast wrote: As for the rest of your questions:Not a bad point on disform at face value but if disform wasn't sure of his play before and has since learned that constructed posts are scummy, what's the problem calling out something he has learned to be generally scummy? Now that day 1 is over and his pass expired, what is your opinion of shining? Keeping in mind he was a main instigator of the final kush switch. I'm not reading in context, what changed your mind from your earlier suspicions? Why was fidei a good lynch before you read his filter? What is your opinion on him now? EoD Your switch from moose to LS seemed a little off to me as I read it from outside the game. You even said So LS making one inconsistency means that moose, who you think could claim mafia and still be just as scummy, is no longer a better lynch than LS? Can you run me through that? My thinking was that if disformation was town in the game, then he knows that that argument doesn't make sense, so he shouldn't be applying it. In general I was trying to look at his thought process, though. When he explained it, I realized that he wasn't using "constructed" as a scum tell, but to refer to posts that were created pre-game. He was actually approaching it from the other mindset, saying that Damdred's post seemed towny but was NAI if it was created pre role pm. This seemed like an unexpected take to me, and a bit towny. I didn't pay much attention in the final hour of the day, so I don't really know about The Shining. His completely ignoring my arguments and scumreading me with unflipped association to the point that I should be a counterwagon felt really really horrible, but I'm not sure if that makes him mafia. I liked the points about his Day 1 activity, however he was kind of forced to do that as mafia if he wanted to survive. Then the only question is if he could have that much motivation to play as mafia, and I think that the answer is possibly. I really want to look at how his reads changed between his two series of posts, and see what the reasoning and thought process for those changes are. Right now, I don't have thoughts. Third question was answered above XD Those weren't suspicions, but trying to figure things out. I never got to Fidei86's filter, I was confident in MoosyDoosy being scum. I was too frustrated before I read his filter. | ||
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On December 03 2015 09:23 Fecalfeast wrote: You mean LightningStrike being confirmed town?And sorry I closed your filter before the very end did you comment on the 'confirmed town' thing? What do you make of it? I don't think he's confirmed town, if someone was coaching him to just yell as much as possible in the scum QT I think that LightningStrike might play like that as town. However, given that I think the rest of his play was reasonably towny, he's a solid town read. Right now I'm most suspicious of Damdred, NocturneMage/MoosyDoosy, The Shining, Fidei86, and Rels (in no particular order). There's been a lot that happened since I last did serious analysis, though. | ||
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When did you see Damdred's post about the game setup? As in, how long did you spend writing your first post? And, had you read/analyzed the game setup before you read Damdred's post? Off for a while. | ||
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On December 03 2015 10:57 NocturneMage wrote: This post is extremely scummy. Makes me more convinced that I'm right. NocturneMage didn't acknowledge any of the differences between my play this game and last game, which is drastic in the way that I pushed my reads and the method of the reads themselves. NocturneMage also scumreads me for pushing MoosyDoosy, and I have no clue why that's suspicious to him when he just saw me push the strongest players in the game as mafia last game, so he knows that I don't resort to "easy targets" as mafia...yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow. I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers. reading from end of cycle, I'm pretty suspicious of trfel again (I say again because he was scum the last game) but that's mainly because of how he played last game. of course he'd push moosydoosy, he's unreadable as fuck as either alignment. same desperation emotions when no one is listening to him. unless he does this as town. cool story bro, try harder because I'm not scum. The extremely dismissive tone without having read the thread is very uncharacteristic. Last game as town, NocturneMage was very reasonable and methodical, and people said that he was much more aggressive tonally as mafia. The tone used here would perhaps be justified if he had actually read the thread or had actual reasons. I thought of some new ways to try to explain/evaluate my MoosyDoosy read, I'll give that a try after I catch up with some stuff. | ||
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On December 02 2015 09:36 Damdred wrote: Sorry, Damdred, I'm having a bit of trouble understanding this post. Are the leans scumleans or town leans? If the former, does falling from a scumlean mean looking townier or scummier?Disinformation Eels Damdred Shining Palmar Leans Trfel Fid (falling) Ls Honestly it's notso bad so far even though I've read 0 filters. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:13 Damdred wrote: This is Damdred's scumread of LightningStrike this game, that started the whole LightningStrike wagon.Sure LS usually even if he is wrong is a strongish prescense in the thread giving his opinion and trying to get people to interact with him while he gives scum reads. He lacks real reads in the thread, the few he has given have been little substance. The one scum read I can tell in his filter was Trfel that he has totally backed off of. He isn't looking to push anyone he is just existing. Now, look at Newbie Student Mafia VIII (for reference, Damdred, LightningStrike, and I (Trfel) were all town. At one point in this game, I scumread LightningStrike for actually having no scumreads. Here's the quote: On April 21 2015 03:55 Trfel wrote: Read the arguments in this quote, and compare them to what Damdred said about LightningStrike this game. Damdred accuses LightningStrike of not having a strong presence, only one scum reads, no pushes, just existing. In Newbie Student Mafia VIII (quote above), I accused LightningStrike of having no scum reads, and just asking questions, not pressuring anyone, and not doing anything to change the thread activity. These are very similar reads.LightningStrike Some people don't learn. I am one of them. This is a post that LightningStrike made in TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy. Note that he provided a bunch of town reads, and then a bunch of null reads. No scumreads at all. Compare that to LightningStrike's first post in this game. Notice the similarities? He actually doesn't provide a scumread for the entire game. Almost all of his filter is asking questions. The vast majority of his reads are in this one post. LightningStrike didn't do anything to change the thread activity, he isn't pressuring anyone. LightningStrike is actually a good lynch here. ##unvote ##vote LightningStrike Here is Damdred's response to my case from Newbie Student Mafia VIII: On April 21 2015 03:59 Damdred wrote: Dismissing this case by saying "that's not how you read LightningStrike" seems to be extremely contradictory to Damdred bringing up the same case in this game. I realize that Damdred focused on the "big list post with no scum reads" part, but the conclusions that I was making from LightningStrike's filter (largely the post... read the filter from that game for yourself and you see that this post was one of the few things of substance in his filter) and the conclusions that Damdred made about LightningStrike this game are very very similar. In this game, Damdred tries to show that LightningStrike is mafia because his only real scum read, on me (Trfel), he backed off of (implying that no scum reads = mafia), which is how he says not to read LightningStrike above.zzzz must of been scum here to. wait he was town. Like I said in guardians that's not how you read ls Am I missing something? Damdred, explanation please? | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:17 Half the Sky wrote: For the record, Half the Sky, I don't think you understand what I'm trying to get across at all. Maybe my argument is very flawed, but your comments don't respond to the argument that I was attempting to make. I hope to re-explain my argument at a later time.Not sure I like or agree with this post. I might be biased here because I've cohosted two games now with Rels, both of which are themed and both of which require him to know his mechanics in depth. I concluded this post alone was NAI because anyone skilled enough or knowledgeable enough about setup spec can speak to their opinions about what certain roles should and should not do. My opinion based on what I read in the OP/day post was that scum can narrow down the setup as they know their own roles so Rels' post is reasonable based on the fact that if the boxer claims, they can further narrow down the setup. The part about 100% sure on the setup is completely false, based on his saying "there are two possible setups....etc" no they don't know for sure but like I said before they can narrow it down based on how BH (and clearly you know from what you've posted?) assigns the roles in his games in the mafia QT, and that would appear to be Rels argument. I don't know where you are getting "took extra time" (I'm seeing a 10 minute gap between Damdred's and Rels response and from what I'm reading of the thread/their filters, for both players it is their first appearances in the thread, 23:27 and 23:37 respectively) or how you'd know he would have posted that otherwise unless I'm reading that sentence wrong. What I'm trying to say is it appears to me that you are reaching here especially since as Rels hadn't posted yet in the thread so I don't know how you can even assume that. It seems like a few assumptions "if he was around" etc. but even if you are making the argument that 10 minutes is too long for him to construct his post, that's still a poor assumption because when you look at his filter that 23:37 post is the first post he makes in the game. You don't know if he arrives at 23:35, sees that and just churns it out which makes the "completely explained and correct" part a reach on your end as well. @LightningStrike, do you still think that Damdred is town? | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:19 Damdred wrote: Damdred, how would you characterize the standard MoosyDoosy Day 1 play as described in this post?Yes I've read his filter and its totally NAI. He only really shows his alignment N1 and beyond, its just how he plays. He isn't worth a d1 lynch when 3/4 of the time he will flip town doing this. Also, Damdred, can you please name one or two of MoosyDoosy's very worst town games on TL Mafia? I've been expecting something more like last game and one other (I forget which), you seem to have different expectations, I'd like to get a reference point. | ||
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On December 03 2015 09:59 The Shining wrote: Okay, here we go....Lol wtf? I didn't ignore your arguments, I went and read MDs filter and told you as much and said I couldn't see where or why you were 100% sold on him being scum. His filter was bad but having played with Moosy before, its unfortunate but I could see the uselessness coming from either alignment. The rest of your stuff was a tone/metaread on him and a couple of people chalked it up to a policy lynch, which I'm not a real fan of. And where did I scumread you for unflipped association? This is a clear misrepresentation of what I said. I never said you should be a counter wagon and when Palmar asked me to case you, I said I couldn't because it was a gutread, weak and based on similarities to your last scum game. That's where the scumread came from, it had nothing to do with any association. And it didn't feel stronger than the points Damdred made on LS or the bad switches from kush and DYH. So when did I push you as a counter wagon? On December 03 2015 06:48 The Shining wrote: Unflipped association, trying to protect a scum partner (presumably LightningStrike). Saying that I should be a wagon. Dismissing my arguments with extremely poor logic (I intend to show later why MoosyDoosy's play last game was obviously town, geript did a really great job of explaining it in the game using reasons I'd actually thought of already, just I was twisting them to try and say that MoosyDoosy was scum because I was scum and I wanted to lynch him). Just because MoosyDoosy was nearly lynched doesn't mean that it wasn't obvious, doesn't mean that it wasn't possible to see earlier (geript proved that really well IMO).No he wasn't. He was almost lynched. And you had perfect info from the start of the game as scum. You also pulled this woe is me, no one is listening to me stunt last game. If there was anyone else competing for the lynch with Moosy right now, Id say you were trying to protect a scum partner. Looking at Moosys filter, it looks bad but its nowhere near enough to be 100% sure he's scum like you are. I do apologize, however, I didn't see the last sentence of your quote. I hadn't realized that you actually did look over MoosyDoosy's filter and try to see what I was saying. Which makes the rest of your post make a lot more sense and makes it actually reasonable. My bad. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:09 Damdred wrote: Next question, what other reads does Damdred refer to in this post?I'm not so sure moosey is mafia. I've given other reads however I think that LS is mafia and I should be sheeped on this. | ||
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I think that the two games look extremely similar to me, thus I think that it makes Damdred likely mafia. I realize that this is subjective and would like to hear what others have to say. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:38 Damdred wrote: Here's a quote making Damdred's reasons to scumread LightningStrike a little more clear. In this quote, Damdred seems to describe the biggest part of his LightningStrike scumread being that LightningStrike has zero scum reads, which is exactly what he said not to do in a previous game as town.Honestly Palmar I feel pretty strongly about LS I know its a bit of work, but just do me this favor and look at him its 2 pages of filter if that. He has 0 scum reads, he town reads people for little reason showing no fear of me or you who he generally has a great deal of respect/fear for our scum games. Has absolutely no scum reads, has no positions in the thread. Just see if i'm right/wrong and tell me and then if you think i'm so dead wrong we can talk about maybe lynching kush/onegu | ||
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Half the Sky's reasons for pushing LightningStrike really stuck out to me as well as Damdred's, because they were reasons that don't necessarily apply to LightningStrike. Once I catch up with the thread I'll take a look at Half the Sky's play towards End of Day with regards to LightningStrike (probably tomorrow), but if that's true, then Half the Sky looks really bad. | ||
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On December 03 2015 14:56 DoYouHas wrote: Yeah, I agree. I played in both games and I know the circumstances and context, and I think they're very similar. I'd like to have Damdred explain why they're different, or at least why something changed, and I'd like to make sure he doesn't get out of answering this one.I will take a look at it tomorrow, but that kind of read is one of my least favorite. Meta works because it is generalized trends in play. Different circumstances, games, and context often makes similar looking quotes do not mean the same thing for alignment. Even if the games seem similar. Gnight folks. At least this time, the reason why it is scummy is extremely obvious, even if it isn't the best reason. My other reasons are better but I can't explain them easily | ||
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First, I didn't read all of Half the Sky's filter, but when I was reading through the thread I didn't think that her play around End of Day was anywhere near as bad as DoYouHas describes. Her read progression on LightningStrike there feels really natural and I actually like it a lot. I'd say that 8 minutes until End of Day is the point where I'd really expect her to start looking for another wagon, and although she doesn't do so, 8 minutes isn't a lot of time and she's sick. I'm guessing that a lot of that time was spent reading the thread trying to figure out what's happening, as the post rate was quite high at the time. I have not looked at the general trends in Half the Sky's filter recently, however when I last looked I didn't see too much wrong that couldn't be easily explained by the cold. And like I said, Half the Sky's read progression on LightningStrike felt towny to me. I still think that DoYouHas is a town lean, though I'm not 100% sure. Vote count analysis also suggests that LightningStrike is town, so I'll stop worrying about that for a while anyway. Haven't checked his filter yet, but The Shining feels like he is town. Fidei86 as well, not entirely sure why about Fidei86. He does a ton of things that to me don't seem interested in actually lynching scum but lynching bad, but he's so open about it that it feels genuine. Everyone else says he's an easy read and he is town, so I'll trust that for now. I'd like to see what Half the Sky says about NocturneMage's posts so far. To me, NocturneMage's posts towards Half the Sky look quite scummy, however having never been married (lol youngest player on TL) I don't think I'm able to judge some of the context behind those statements. Fecalfeast feels towny, and this matches my early Onegu first post read. The Fecalfeast read is much stronger, naturally The callout of NocturneMage is really good, he's raised a bunch of good points, and he's actually reasonable and willing to work with people.I'm really confident on NocturneMage being mafia, and I think that Damdred is also decently likely to be mafia. Feels like Rels may mafia, though I haven't looked at Rels yet and some of his stuff seems really towny. Though, I just remembered his reaction to my case on MoosyDoosy and then he completely forgot about it. If he was really that excited about it (as he seemed to be), he completely dropped it. I can see it from town, but it's a bit suspicious. Furthermore, there's some really stupid unflipped association, but even when I'm really confident unflipped association is still unflipped association There's a very good chance that at least one mafia got through my search, I have been giving townreads fairly easily. But I need to go to bed, I'll look later. | ||
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Here is a link to Palmar's filter from Gaiden 2 (town). He opened the game with a very strong push against (town) justanothertownie, which is similar to his push against The Shining this game. I'm pretty sure that his play died off really heavily after this push, he was nearly lynched Day 2. I think that making a push like Palmar makes isn't necessarily hard as scum, but the way that Palmar does it is much hard to replicate as scum than a normal push. I've never seen Palmar push something aggressively Day 1 like that as mafia, so it's possible that he is mafia, however I feel he's probably town. Also, for the record, I think I've thought of most of the things that Rels said about DoYouHas already and still kind of think that he's town. | ||
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I'm a bit more suspicious of Palmar than I let on, and that thing about Fidei86 feels off. Palmar, explain? But Rels... Before you did anything, Palmar (if town) was always getting shot here. IMO you should have waited until EON to post this, it would have made life much easier if Palmar is town, which he still probably is IMO. | ||
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On December 03 2015 23:27 Rels wrote: I don't really care about Half the Sky because I'm pretty confident that she's town? And the cold/sickness/whatever makes it really hard for me to scumread her?Can you update your HTS read when you have time to finish her filter ? I think it makes more sense that she is town Half the Sky with her play slightly weakened by the cold than she is mafia and has shown the same desire to solve the game and direction that I would expect as town. I'm pretty upset right now, just missed a meeting that I had to wait 3 weeks for because I'm an idiot. Going to use that to bury NocturneMage. | ||
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I could very well be wrong on DoYouHas, actually he really could be mafia. There isn't too much reason to townread him, however I don't think there is much reason to scumread him, either, and I generally prefer to give people like that more time and lynch people who I have more reason to scumread. For example, Rels brought up DoYouHas' read change on me (Trfel) earlier, saying that DoYouHas said that I was suspicious and a few minutes later said that I was crazy. The obvious flaw in this is that some people say that other people are crazy to mean that they are mafia because they don't make sense, even though lately this has been considered mafia indicative (it can be, but it's a wording thing and is very inconsistent). | ||
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I need to go to class now and I will finish later. NocturneMage, I'm sorry that you had to replace in as mafia, and into a slot that was already confirmed mafia. There's nothing you can do, so you don't need to waste your time trying. I get that you want to play with Half the Sky, and you'll probably have a bit over 48 hours to do so, but my win condition is to lynch mafia and letting you live just because you're playing with Half the Sky can't happen. One final note, to everyone else, if MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage is actually mafia (as I strongly believe) then Damdred looks really bad, and Palmar looks a bit worse as well, maybe Rels too. I realize that this is unflipped association, but I don't want it to be forgotten. It doesn't matter what they do from here, if they try to cover it up, if they try to bus to gain town credit for their flip. | ||
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MoosyDoosy wasn't lynched in Student Mafia XV, that game ended after the Day 1 lynch on Stoicism_. | ||
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Warning: this case will probably be extremely long. I tried a short case with only the essentials, but no one believed me. So I am trying this instead. Warning 2: this case will probably include a lot of meta. I did not want it to be that way. My first case included minimal meta. However, meta has been used to defend MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage, so I must first demonstrate why that meta defense is incorrect and then demonstrate why meta shows that NocturneMage is mafia. Warning 3: as careful as I try to be, there's probably at least one typo/formatting error somewhere. And I'm not going to proofread this as I would be here all day. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask. Note: I will be using MoosyDoosy's filters from the following three games to describe his town meta. I have only read one of the three games mentioned (Newbie Student Mafia XVII). This means that some of the meta reads used may have flaws, however I do not think this is the case. It is noteworthy that in Newbie Student Mafia XVII (the latest game), MoosyDoosy said that meta reads on him do not apply because he's played so many games on another site and his meta has changed. Newbie Student Mafia XVII is very recent, is the game that I'm familiar with, and strongly supports my point, so this cannot hurt the strength of my read (and may help it). Part 1: For those who say MoosyDoosy is unreadable + Show Spoiler + MoosyDoosy often plays very differently as town than most people do. And many people are not used to this. Saying that MoosyDoosy is unreadable as town is a very false statement, however. There have been other players in the past who have been sometimes considered "unreadable". Alakaslam and Chezinu are two examples of this, I might also consider LightningStrike (arguable). In truth, no one is unreadable. Everyone has tells on some level, reasoning that can be applied to their play on some level, because mafia knows that they are mafia and is trying to survive while town knows that they are town and is trying to catch scum/isn't playing to survive. In the past, people have demonstrated an acceptable ability to read Alakaslam, Chezinu, and LightningStrike. People have also demonstrated an ability to read MoosyDoosy, as shown by geript in Newbie Student Mafia XVII. Also, geript can be a very good player as town; this read on MoosyDoosy was not caused by luck. In this game, geript caught two of the three scum members with extreme confidence by the end of Night 1 (at least, pretty sure it was even earlier, but whatever). On November 18 2015 02:24 geript wrote: The read that geript used on MoosyDoosy here is somewhat specific to that game, however my point is that it can be done. It can't be approached the same way every game, but if you pay attention and look for things that you wouldn't look for from a more "normal" player, you can read MoosyDoosy on Day 1.Moosey 5.5/7--I think Moosy might be town. It's kinda impossible to tell, but I liked his Farah read. I don't think the read is good, but Moosy tends (as town) to be staunch on some really out there read that no one else sees. Yes, he does the same thing as scum. Yes, IMO he'll do anything he'd do as town as scum including acting like an ass. I don't have a super strong read on him that I can make a town case on him, but I feel about as strong about the read on him as I did in the last game (where I was tracker and was trying to decouple him and scumdred). The thing that really makes me think he's town isn't just his outburst around the Farah thing; more importantly it's how he comes back to it later on. The bounce back on was really, really towny I think. It's this, "I want to fuck people over and I don't want to fuck people over" dissonance that I don't think he can really fake as mafia. Part 2: Essential facts about MoosyDoosy's play (meta) + Show Spoiler + 1. MoosyDoosy hates playing as town Don't think that this should need to be explained, but here we go anyway. On November 17 2015 11:57 MoosyDoosy wrote: I am assuming that he is referring to hatred of playing town as opposed to hatred of the town in this game.Because I hate town. Next quesiton, yes. On October 16 2015 20:48 MoosyDoosy wrote: I guess... /in I swear if I roll VT again tho... On November 30 2015 03:22 MoosyDoosy wrote: Ignoring the WIFOM in this post, it's pretty obvious that he hates playing town Day 1 and often will not do so.pregame excuse: i said i'll play d1 but remember that i only play d1 as mafia but then again i like playing w/ damdred which might make me try but then i have bias towards damdred so if i'm town that's a negative spiral and btw if i do roll mafia idk if i'll actually play or not for mindgames but idk if i'll be able to muster the decision to play if i'm town but guys i've rolled town in every one of blazinghand's games so ofc i'll roll town but maybe this time it's time to break the chain... And hm, I think that's all of the meta that is required for this case to actually work. Which is great because it's adequately described in MoosyDoosy's pregame posts this very game. Part 3: An example of a similar read to the one that will follow + Show Spoiler + For this, I turn to one of the very best. Ver. If you're not familiar with Ver, he's one of the best mafia players of all time. He (I believe) was one of the mafia players who played at the start of TL Mafia, and he won nearly every game he played. He doesn't play any more, but for the past while, every so often he's hosted a game where he didn't know anyone's alignments, and let the cohost handle all of the alignment-relevant hosting like flips, night actions, etc. Ver analyzed the game, and at the end of the game, he shared his thoughts and how he went about catching the scum team. I believe he caught or basically caught the scum team by the end of Day 2 at the latest, generally sooner. Point being, he's an extremely good player and knows what he's doing. The following is from Ver's analysis of Assassination Mafia. I played in this game, so I have a decent idea of what I'm talking about. 1. Ver's scumread of Bill Murray + Show Spoiler + In this game, Bill Murray was mafia. He started by nuking (basically an in-thread vigilante shot that hits at the end of the cycle) Trfel, and then nuking marvellosity (the latter being a fake nuke) for questionable reasons. He later started playing the game more seriously and many people thought he was town (some reasons being that he was too scummy to be scum, he was extremely crazy, randomly nuking was a bad play from mafia that wouldn't be beneficial, etc). Ver wrote: There's some additional reasoning to this scum read, but it's not important to the point I'm trying to make; feel free to read it for yourself, it's a great read. The bold emphasis is my own, this is the idea that I'm trying to get across: if there is a post that cannot come from a town mindset/perspective, it makes the poster mafia. Note that this is often unrelated to whether the post is objectively good or bad ("objectively good" play is explained reads, explained changes in reads, everything makes sense, etc... "objectively bad" play is the opposite, however these things are both not so helpful for catching mafia).Right now Bill Murray is relaxed, he is not double checking his posts and make sure his stance is consistent with a townie ideology; he messed up. If you notice Bill Murray’s posting improves greatly over time, enough that he even made quite a few people believe he was innocent and even get pardoned. Remember all you need to do as town is to find one post or context where they have an action/words that cannot come from a townie frame, and you found a mafia. You do not need them to keep posting!! Bill Murray looked innocent the more he posted but it was irrelevant because his early posts and actions made him mafia. Case Closed. Next. Ver said this to further explain the scum read: Ver wrote: Bill Murray's story didn't match for two reasons.[Written postgame] For the people who defended Bill or were uncertain of him being mafia, I think this happened because they were focusing on the wrong things, like the possibility of him being an insane townie. But the idea that crazy people are more likely to be town (because of lack of fear) is not a rule, it is a heuristic. Thus it can be wrong. In order to confirm your heuristic usage, you need to bring in other factors. The best pairing with the “he wouldn’t do something crazy as mafia” is the congruence heuristic. Are his actions/words aligned? Does he keep his story straight? Is he coming from the same base point each post? If you apply that to Bill, it should be quite obvious he fails the test hard. Several people noted that his posts were all over the place and not consistent at all. Just because he’s trying doesn’t mean anything. Thus the “insane townie” heuristic gets overruled because congruence is more important. The best mafia cases all come from when multiple quality heuristics converge. Some are more accurate than others, and in such cases where they conflict you have to go with the most precise ones first. Those are generally congruence and “he can only do/post that from a mafia mindset.” Both those apply to Bill. 1. He nuked Trfel for having a small filter and low activity. Right after that, he something like "Wow, I should have nuked Palmar. Guy has even less activity than Trfel." Then, he later nuked marvellosity. First, this is bad play because he didn't consider all of his options before using his nuke and the reason he used his nuke is awful (play so bad that it's a bit scummy, but doesn't make him scum). Second, he was suspicious enough of Trfel to nuke him, then he said that Palmar was even worse. But didn't nuke Palmar. And nuked marvellosity later. If he actually had two nukes, why did he not nuke Palmar, if that was more than enough suspicion to justify a nuke? This again doesn't completely make him mafia IMO, there's an extremely small chance that Bill Murray would be town with two nukes and is willing to fire off one of them at random and actually cares to save the second for the best moment. He's very scummy, but not confirmed scum. 2. After firing two nukes and playing poorly/insanely for the reasons described above, Bill Murray calmed down, apologized, and then started playing seriously. His reads and play were actually "objectively good" as described before. However, this is what actually makes him 100% mafia. Town can play badly, town can nuke people at random. Town can also play well and try to solve the game to the best of their ability. But town can NOT play badly and use their role to shoot people at random, nonsensically, and then stop and try to play seriously and solve the game. These two things do not line up and cannot possibly come from the same person. The contradiction makes Bill Murray 100% mafia. One final note, while I didn't say quite what Ver said, it's in the same spirit: Ver wrote: even if you ignore my evidence, other people like Marv Sandro and a couple I forget bring up quite accurately that his motivations/posts are inconsistent over the course of the day 2. Ver's scumread of marvellosity (excerpt) + Show Spoiler + Marvellosity was the last catch for Ver. Here's some of his scumread on marvellosity: Ver wrote: If you see something that makes no sense from a town mindset, then the person is probably mafia.In my reassessment [on marvellosity] with my focus more narrowed, I went over the day 1 nuke shenanigans and I noticed something strange: I automatically assumed BM’s first nuke was fake and second was real since a) he knows town has anti nukes b) that is just common sense, but what if it wasn’t? trfel certainly reacted to BM’s nuke, and Marv reacted to BM’s nuke on trfel. But why did Marv not care a bit about BM’s nuke on him? That is a gaping hole that extremely likely indicates mafia. Part 4: Why MoosyDoosy's play shows that he was mafia (only the above meta) + Show Spoiler + 1. Pregame, MoosyDoosy stated that he might not play Day 1 as town. He clearly showed that he wouldn't be happy about rolling town. Once the game started, MoosyDoosy still said that he wouldn't be happy about rolling town. + Show Spoiler + On November 29 2015 05:56 MoosyDoosy wrote: /confirm Looks like I have to play D1 now. :/ On November 30 2015 03:22 MoosyDoosy wrote: pregame excuse: i said i'll play d1 but remember that i only play d1 as mafia but then again i like playing w/ damdred which might make me try but then i have bias towards damdred so if i'm town that's a negative spiral and btw if i do roll mafia idk if i'll actually play or not for mindgames but idk if i'll be able to muster the decision to play if i'm town but guys i've rolled town in every one of blazinghand's games so ofc i'll roll town but maybe this time it's time to break the chain... On December 01 2015 08:14 MoosyDoosy wrote: Scared to check role pm -> scared of rolling townniiiice, I didn't even check my role PM yet lol. I'm actually scared to. 2. MoosyDoosy claims to check his role pm and says that he rolled town, and is upset about it + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 08:37 MoosyDoosy wrote: i just checked my pm. i'm vt tournaent attendee asd;flkjasdf 3. Through the rest of the game, MoosyDoosy shows no complaints about rolling town at all, and is very happy + Show Spoiler + Here is MoosyDoosy's filter. To be complete, I should quote every post after he checks his role pm, but that's stupid. Here are a few posts that best describe my point. On December 01 2015 08:40 MoosyDoosy wrote: This post was made three minutes after MoosyDoosy checked his role pm. Given how big of a deal he made over checking his role pm (took him 23 minutes between first mentioning it and checking his role pm), how much he hates playing town, and that he was upset when he claimed to have read his town role pm, he should still be upset three minutes later. Instead, he's happily talking about the game.Rels speak more so i can soul read you as usual. On December 01 2015 08:43 MoosyDoosy wrote: In case there's any doubt, three minutes later.aight imma do this: wait until rels speaks more. if he's mafia, we lynch him. if he's town, imma do the opposite of what he says as he gets everything wrong ofc. On December 01 2015 08:57 MoosyDoosy wrote: I think I like you two fighting. :D Plzerino continue~~ On December 02 2015 09:07 MoosyDoosy wrote: His last post of Day 1. Very interesting, he did a bunch of work (as he claims) and is happy? Not expected from a person who hates playing town.whew i did too much work there. will be back after a rest. This very strongly suggests that MoosyDoosy is mafia. I cannot see these posts coming from the same perspective/mindset as MoosyDoosy showed pre-game and at the start of the game through reading his role pm, so the only option is that MoosyDoosy rolled mafia. 4. MoosyDoosy displays no desire to solve the game + Show Spoiler + I know, you're saying "but MoosyDoosy is useless as town, he never displays any desire to solve the game! This is NAI!" First, you're wrong. But second, remember this is the "minimal meta" section, and having no desire to solve the game is almost always mafia indicative. Here are all of MoosyDoosy's posts in the game that can possibly be seen as trying to solve the game. Being very nice here. + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 08:40 MoosyDoosy wrote: Rels speak more so i can soul read you as usual. On December 01 2015 08:43 MoosyDoosy wrote: aight imma do this: wait until rels speaks more. if he's mafia, we lynch him. if he's town, imma do the opposite of what he says as he gets everything wrong ofc. On December 01 2015 08:57 MoosyDoosy wrote: I think I like you two fighting. :D Plzerino continue~~ On December 01 2015 12:42 MoosyDoosy wrote: o/ Hi Shining. What was with the burst of emotion earlier? Ya feeling alright there buddy? On December 01 2015 12:43 MoosyDoosy wrote: Really? No one pointed this post out? hm...would like to see Palmar and Damdred's take on this. On December 01 2015 12:45 MoosyDoosy wrote: hm...help me understand your Fidei read. Do you think the basis behind Fidei's reads are bad or the reads themselves? On December 01 2015 12:50 MoosyDoosy wrote: I find it interesting that you acted that way because A. I'm genuinely concerned for your mental state in Mafia as I know it's a high stress game. B. I do feel that you overreacted a bit with your sudden outburst and I disliked the way you try to use your meta to defend yourself. So. I just want to know your thoughts. What was the basis behind your Fidei read? On December 01 2015 12:54 MoosyDoosy wrote: I really want Rels to speak up. Rels bby speak~~ On December 01 2015 13:05 MoosyDoosy wrote: i like this post because i feel the same way tbh On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote: hey rels bb are you okay? You seem a bit too angry. :c Talk to me if you need to vent a bit. What's with your angry attitude m8? On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote: The way to find out disformation's alignment is to shade a ton of suspicion on him and a ton of votes then see what he does afterwards. On December 02 2015 09:05 MoosyDoosy wrote: hey damdy, who you looking to kill tonight? On December 02 2015 09:06 MoosyDoosy wrote: Can someone go back and list the twooo sides right now? I get the impression there's the Rels camp and the anti Rels camp or something like that. Anyone who makes that list for me is a bb. These kind of statements are always very subjective, but I personally feel that MoosyDoosy does nothing at all to move the game forward and shows no desire to solve the game at all. The posts about Rels are completely useless. Excluding those, and taking only the best of MoosyDoosy's comments, along with why they show no desire to solve the game: On December 01 2015 12:43 MoosyDoosy wrote: Criticizing this post is a perfectly valid thing to do. MoosyDoosy doesn't have any push, however. There is no followup on anything else about me (Trfel). He doesn't come to a conclusion about me, he basically just says "here, yours!" and throws it at Damdred and Palmar. Basically making suspicion and letting someone else do the work while waiting in the corner and watching.Really? No one pointed this post out? hm...would like to see Palmar and Damdred's take on this. On December 01 2015 12:50 MoosyDoosy wrote: Suddenly MoosyDoosy is talking about The Shining. Okay. No conclusion about this either.I find it interesting that you acted that way because A. I'm genuinely concerned for your mental state in Mafia as I know it's a high stress game. B. I do feel that you overreacted a bit with your sudden outburst and I disliked the way you try to use your meta to defend yourself. So. I just want to know your thoughts. What was the basis behind your Fidei read? On December 01 2015 13:05 MoosyDoosy wrote: So he has a lot of townreads and doesn't want to say them. They haven't been mentioned at all yet. Okay...i like this post because i feel the same way tbh On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote: What does MoosyDoosy think about disformation's alignment? I assume that he thinks disformation is town because of the "lots of townreads" post and the fact that he doesn't actually do the advice that he suggests here, however why doesn't he say that disformation is town and/or why he thinks so?The way to find out disformation's alignment is to shade a ton of suspicion on him and a ton of votes then see what he does afterwards. On December 02 2015 09:05 MoosyDoosy wrote: He said that he liked Damdred's earlier post, here he suggests that Damdred is scum. Either this is a joke (and therefore not solving the game) or he's not caring to explain or investigate his read at all (not solving the game).hey damdy, who you looking to kill tonight? It's not that MoosyDoosy is not being very useful, it's that even for having just a few posts that can actually be maybe seen as doing something, they're all focused on different people. There's no followup, no conclusions at all, nothing that requires thinking, nothing that seems to be solving the game. You can read his filter for yourself. This also extremely strongly suggests that MoosyDoosy is mafia. Again, most meta arguments will be addressed later. If you're looking for mafia motivation as well, it's fairly obvious (this point is not as strong as the other points, so I won't spend a lot of time on it, but mafia motivation is important so this is here in principle). MoosyDoosy didn't try to solve the game (mafia doesn't need to solve the game). MoosyDoosy's activity died down once it seemed like people weren't going to lynch him (mafia only posts to survive). MoosyDoosy relied on WIFOM and meta to survive instead of scumhunting. Part 5: Why MoosyDoosy's meta suggests that he is mafia, not that he is town + Show Spoiler + I have previously explained why MoosyDoosy's play this game displays no desire to solve the game. Looking at three of his past games, the question is if he has a desire to solve the game as town. If he does, then MoosyDoosy is almost certainly mafia in this game; if he does not, then MoosyDoosy may be town in this game (the previous point about MoosyDoosy being scum for not trying to solve the game would be much weaker). Game 1: Newbie Student Mafia XVII + Show Spoiler + For this game, I'll be taking only Day 1 quotes. Two reasons. First, MoosyDoosy only played Day 1 in the current game. Second, MoosyDoosy was nearly lynched on Day 1 in Newbie Student Mafia XVII, and his Day 2 play was much more involved and useful. On November 16 2015 15:53 MoosyDoosy wrote: This post came quite early in Day 1, later clarified to be his mafia list. Before this, MoosyDoosy voted for FarahBlackwing, and asked questions to disformation and The Shining. However, his reads are still almost entirely unexplained. I note that this post alone shows more desire to solve the game than MoosyDoosy's entire filter in this game.It's not necessarily improved but: Farah disformation Shining geript On November 17 2015 08:11 MoosyDoosy wrote: Instead of asking other people what they think about a post, he makes his own conclusion and pushes it.Posts like this make Farah Mafia. And NM is town. On November 17 2015 08:30 MoosyDoosy wrote: Yes I will explain. Farah is serious player and does not take gambits especially as noob as shown in previous game. This is extremely out of place. + Show Spoiler + On November 16 2015 05:04 FarahBlackwing wrote: Hello. I think the proper use of our time is ##vote shining Statistically it has to be time When people point it out and call bS on his "boring thread" excuse, he backs out of it immediately by saying he's "gathering reads" while whining at thread. + Show Spoiler + On November 16 2015 05:58 FarahBlackwing wrote: ##unvote Ok I have my read now. Why shouldn't I dos something earlto try to obtain any type of formative reads or understanding when everyone was just saying hi. Free town reads based on nothing. \o/ + Show Spoiler + On November 17 2015 00:05 FarahBlackwing wrote: I'm awake, Anyway I probably will be mostly afk today so I'll try to be concise about my feelings. 1) I am super sure that Shining is town, based on meta and his posts give me a good feeling about them. They are pointed even if you disagree with what he is doing this is an excellent showing of his day one town play. Just a pity we won't see him again until wensday. 2) NocturneMage recent flurry of postings have giving me a good feeling, it felt like he was interacting with the thread as he was catching up instead of trying to be useless and lurking. He also instead of giving excuses is being proactive and trying to get thoughts out there. Good townlean, or at least not lynching today. 3) I'm not sure how people are so sure of VE so early? I probably don't get it because I never have played with him, but the town case on him seemed good and simplistic. So I suppose I will throw him into my town pile and then re-evaluate later. 4) I am not super confident in my eversince read, but I feel like she is town this game. I also think ritoky is town, but i'm probably the least confident in this, and some of geripts postings have giving me good feelings but i'm not super sure about either. And this post is very mechanical yes and has no emotion. Very much like Damdred yes. + Show Spoiler + On November 17 2015 08:23 FarahBlackwing wrote: No Moos you are just an someone who refuses to play in any game I've signed up with you in. If you can't be assed to explain your one scum read to the thread when people are trying to evaluate you whats the point. So frustrating On November 17 2015 08:41 MoosyDoosy wrote: This game clearly shows that MoosyDoosy is actually trying to solve the game and that he's invested in it. He's still martyring and still being obnoxious, but that doesn't stop him from pushing his reads and trying to solve the game. It's completely different from the play MoosyDoosy showed in this game.Yes, that explanation was terrible. It was a wrongly applied meta read as there is differentiation between a**hole Shining and truly emotional Shining. It was free town read for no reason. She is Oprah of town reads. And saying that the read came from other people is excuse for read later on. On November 17 2015 08:47 MoosyDoosy wrote: He acknowledge this himself.shit I am becoming too invested into this game already. I will now go to prevent this. Goodbye and lynch me please. There are a bunch more quotes, you can see for yourself. I think that this is really obvious. Conclusion: MoosyDoosy was trying to solve the game. Game 2: Student Mafia XVI + Show Spoiler + MoosyDoosy was lynched on Day 2 in this game. Therefore, I will attempt to separate his investment and desire to solve the game for Day 1 and Night 1-Day 2 to show the comparison to his filter this game and also the part that resulted in him getting lynched. On October 18 2015 06:15 MoosyDoosy wrote: aight this post was pretty awkward tbh. On October 18 2015 06:16 MoosyDoosy wrote: - Awkwardly inserts VT claim - Pretends to be angry - Pretense of answering a question. On October 18 2015 06:20 MoosyDoosy wrote: All of these posts came in the first 1 hour 20 minutes of the game. And they already show way more desire to solve the game than MoosyDoosy showed this game.To be completely serious, I do like to generate a little discussion in games. So far what conclusions have I drawn? Well, one is that boxerfred's post just now is super awkward and I don't really like it. Another is that you are pretty probably town for coming in with a townie mindset and without addressing the possibility of what Mafia would do. So you are a town read and boxerfred is a scum read. The other dude is a town lean and GB is a null right now. When questioned, he pushed his suspicion of boxerfred. On October 18 2015 06:25 MoosyDoosy wrote: Then there's a townread on Rels, and then he continues to push boxerfred.Really? Read it again. He could have just answered that he was annoyed at the spam but he feels the need to give an excuse of having no time as well as claiming VT all in one. It's very awkward to cram it into one post hm...? Also, while I realize that he normally does have real life obligations, it is still something to note that he feels it is necessary to claim that he won't be posting much. On October 19 2015 01:55 MoosyDoosy wrote: As far as Day 1 goes, MoosyDoosy is clearly invested and trying to solve the game. Huge contrast to the current game. From this point I will start looking to see what changed, and what resulted in him getting lynched (using only his filter).Again, boxerfred is really weird. In his opening post he crammed a VT claim, a complaint, and a scum read. In his next post, he tries to place blame on me for posting gif's when I didn't. He even tries to scum read me for it which is lol-worthy. Just scum reading me here is also super surface level because he's not looking into how I operate and more about my outwards appearance. His attempt to say he knows my meta is terrible because he was only in the game where I was Mafia and he's not making any effort to check my others game where I literally do the same thing as I did in that game. I mean...What is there to like? - Awkward first opening - Says I started gif wars when I didn't even participate - Scum reads me for gif's which I didn't even post - Applies appearance reads - Makes no attempt to support his supposed “meta” read ##unvote ##vote boxerfred In general, on Day 1 it's clear that MoosyDoosy cares about the lynch. His filter is centered on his biggest suspect, boxerfred (discussing and pushing his read), but he's also discussing townreads and other suspects. He ended up sheeping other people for the Day 1 lynch, but it's obvious that he was invested in the game. He didn't yell and scream, but you can tell that he cared despite not voting for his biggest suspect. If you don't believe me, compare it to his play in this game; it's still night and day. MoosyDoosy's sheeping (seems like he had his own reasons to think it was a good lynch though) led him to lynch scott31337, and he flipped town. On October 20 2015 05:02 MoosyDoosy wrote: LoneMeow comes off looking gross from this but I don't know why he voted for scott and not Eversince in this situation unless they're scum buddies or if both scott and Eversince were town. On October 20 2015 05:03 MoosyDoosy wrote: Still trying to solve the game.Or LoneMeow is town and really is clueless. hm...Eversince, I'll have to hold you to your promise on participating in the following phases as you look really weird off of this. On October 20 2015 21:52 MoosyDoosy wrote: I'm guessing that this is where people start wanting to lynch him...I like the bf tunnel. I'd like to volunteer for D2 lynch willingly. On October 22 2015 00:53 MoosyDoosy wrote: Here's the post he makes after being gone for a while. He's definitely trying to solve the game. He ends up getting lynched, and to be honest I actually don't know why. His play didn't completely make sense, but that's not scum indicative and it seems really clear that he was trying to solve the game and was invested.Okay, I am back but had too much to catch up on so I just started from the night flip because that’s most interesting and did quick reads through filters. Rels/sicklucker is a situation I don’t want to touch right now because it’s dumb and it’s NAI for both players. It’ll be a lot better to just find the other Mafia and figure out alignments from there. So taking them out of the surviving list, it’s this: Vonthin FarahBlackwing Eversince GlowingBear boxerfred FecalFeast The Shining - boxerfred is probably town for thinking that my shitty posts during N1 were good and giving me the credit for that when it came from someone else’s line of questioning (lol). He pulls reads out for some strange and/or misguided reasoning as town. So probs town. - The Shining is acting like shitty Shining when he’s being tunneled. Although he should start posting more soon. But he’s probs town. - Farah’s thoughts are logical and good. So he’s probs town. If we take these people out, it leaves us with a pool of: Vonthin Eversince GlowingBear FecalFeast - GlowingBear is hard to read, but his reaction to flip and afterwards shenanigans seems townie. But I’ll have to go check, so he’s a null. - FecalFeast is hard to read until I look at him properly so he’s a null. - Vonthin’s last posts is something I’ll have to look at. He was a scum lean before but I didn’t really look at his play since then so scum lean still. - Eversince is reaaally different from her last game. In the last one she was obstinate and refused to listen to others and pursued her reads to no end. Seeing her here being waffly about her reads is not something that I normally see her do. So scum lean. ##Vote: Eversince Like, actually what the heck. I'm pretty sure that I was told that this was a game to look at to see one of MoosyDoosy's worst games? On October 23 2015 05:13 MoosyDoosy wrote: Without the context, I'm not sure if I can agree or disagree, but from MoosyDoosy's perspective this statement is 100% correct; he was trying to solve the game and putting in a lot of effort.gg~~ was fairly obvious I'm town lmao. Conclusion: this is extremely different from MoosyDoosy's play in this game. MoosyDoosy demonstrated a desire to solve the game throughout. Game 3: Student Mafia XV + Show Spoiler + On October 11 2015 00:20 MoosyDoosy wrote: First post of the game has some actual reads.Hi people. I actually kind of agree with sentiment that we need a lot less spam so I'll work on it. I know I've been a problem in the past so hopefully I won't be terrible this game. It's quite a problem though as I've promised to post Part 2 of my analysis of Crime & Punishment but now I feel like I can't post it in this game. ): Also, as a note, I realized that no emoji will show up if you do the reverse like I did above. It was actually pretty mind blowing when I found out as it works on a bunch of other sites and gets rid of the annoying little faces. Just a bit of a pet peeve. Also, while I'm at it, I may as well state that I currently don't like either of ObviousOne or Stoicism_. ObviousOne for obvious reasons that he's giving excuses for not posting much and Stoicism_ for taking Obvious's sarcastic post a bit too personally. On October 11 2015 04:02 MoosyDoosy wrote: As a note, Eversince actively prodding at things that move this early in the game makes me think he's town. On October 11 2015 04:21 MoosyDoosy wrote: It's a tone read. Everyone else entered by saying they were town and going to do something useful with their time. Gumdrop comes in all Kumbaya-like and happy, then says he wants to catch scum but disappears. On October 11 2015 04:53 MoosyDoosy wrote: Already, he's shown much more desire to solve the game than he showed in the current game. They are completely different, there is really no comparison.0pps, kSC, Vivax, and Onegu*. Sorry bb ): You're important to me but not that important. Mixture of tone and other things. kSC for being right in that there was some unnecessarily serious reading into some posts, Vivax for behaving like a dick, and Onegu for good tone read earlier that was in line with my own thoughts. On October 11 2015 10:57 MoosyDoosy wrote: Before I leave here's a list on where I'm at right now: Town: Eversince kSC -Celestial- Onegu Fecalfeast Null: Vivax marvellosity sicklucker Scum: Gumdrop ObviousOne Stoicism_ Inactive: Shining On October 12 2015 01:39 MoosyDoosy wrote: okie since Onegu is a bum and won’t entertain me, I guess I’ll have to just explain my thought process on ObviousOne. 1. On face value it just looks like I was questioning kSC on something rather simple. I actually had suspicions on ObviousOne at that point which is why I was asking kSC while also obtaining a read on kSC. And to let you know, being involved and actively answering my questions made me read him as town. Also because he’s hella h0t but that’s not the point. 2. Then there’s this weird read on me. + Show Spoiler + On October 11 2015 10:08 ObviousOne wrote: Just gonna pop through four filters in order on the list. Onegu: liking how comfortable he seems with the thread. Can possibly agree with gumdrop lynch but willing to extend benefit of the doubt regarding gumdrop to see what is said. Would not lynch. Gumdrop: waiting for the return of the jedi. Could lynch. Eversince: I understand the confusion with vivax she has. Vivax has seemed to finally switched off his troll mode from speed reading the thread. Thinking that Vivax was intentionally trying to disrupt things by saying nothing is natural for someone not familiar with him. Let's see where Vivax goes from here. Would not lynch. TheShining: AWOL Okay, I guess I'll do a few more this is easy. Kelsiersc: Sheeping Onegu on the gumdrop thing entirely. Gumdrop would definitely be a convenient target for scum in this scenario and sheeping keeps any potential backlash off KSC. Also the Moosy feel for his other scum read is basically a reply to my post regarding activity. Seems picked out at random and the post overall has very little conviction. Potential lynch candidate. Celestial: voting the AWOL guy. Has a big paragraph by my name that could have just said NAI. [association based on unflipped players ahead  has KSC, the other guy I find scummy, in his leaning town list. Potential lynch candidate.Fecal: unremarkable at this moment other than the obvious vivax stuff. Probably not a lynch candidate. Marv: being marv, not ready to say anything just yet. Sicklucker: seems pretty happy with himself and situation. Spouting off. I like it. Not a lynch candidate. Stoicism: seemed pretty interested in me, really wanted to interact with me but hasn't shown up since our little scuffle. Seemed like he was trying to have a conversation about nothing with me. Potential lynch candidate. Moosy: actually some good feels, though potential helpful-townie-scummer vibe but not really likely. Not a lynch candidate. So there you go. Scumreads: KSC/Celestial and one of stoic/shining/gumdrop. If I were to vote right now it would be KSC so I will do just that. ##vote KelsierSC Okay that's what I got. Gonna watch some TV now. You're welcome. On face value, my posts and filter look decent-ish because it seems like I’m participating. But in reality I’m not doing much and am actively lurking by only sharing easy thoughts and not acting on much. I was a bit surprised that others didn’t pick up on this. + Show Spoiler + -Celestial-, but there are other reasons to townread her, and sicklucker Only way he didn’t pick up on it is if he’s not carefully reading the thread. 3. Then there’s also the fact that he’s concentrating on lynching the people that have already scum read him so far. Also heightened by the fact that I didn’t actually post my scum read on him when he posted his long list post which is why he probably didn’t scum read me lol. 4. If you actually care to look at my filter, you can see my line of thought concerning ObviousOne is actually there so don’t say I’m jumping on popular wagons for no reason. He has a 10 page filter. I'm at page 4. He didn't get lynched this game. I don't need to read any more, he's already shown that he's trying to solve the game and it's completely different play from this game. Reading the two games that I hadn't read yet actually blew me away. MoosyDoosy's play as town in these three games is completely different from his play in this game that I am not even sure if I can describe it. He's making reads and is trying to solve the game in all three of the above games, even if he goes about it in his own MoosyDoosy way. I've already described how there is none of that in this game. It's not an activity thing, either. MoosyDoosy was fairly active Day 1 in this game, he just chose to do nothing of value. He made comments about three people, but never posted any conclusions at all (even conclusions without reasons). Compare this to Student Mafia XVI, where he had a strong scum read 1 hour and 20 minutes into the game. Meta clearly shows that MoosyDoosy is mafia in this game. 6. NocturneMage's play thus far + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 10:57 NocturneMage wrote: Okay, so he's busy. Fine.yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow. I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers. reading from end of cycle, I'm pretty suspicious of trfel again (I say again because he was scum the last game) but that's mainly because of how he played last game. of course he'd push moosydoosy, he's unreadable as fuck as either alignment. same desperation emotions when no one is listening to him. unless he does this as town. cool story bro, try harder because I'm not scum. He hasn't read anything, but he's really suspicious of me. The tone is extremely dismissive, and how is he this convinced that I'm scum if he hasn't actually read anything? Looking at the reasons, he mentions:
Other people have expressed concerns with NocturneMage's play (the rest of his posts are fairly scummy as well). I won't re-quote them. But there are two more things I will mention. NocturneMage's entire series of posts showed extreme confidence and kept saying that scum should be scared of him. On December 03 2015 10:57 NocturneMage wrote: yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow. I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers. On December 03 2015 11:30 NocturneMage wrote: Here are two examples.back to work, end of cycle gives me a good starting point as to where to go when I can really sink in. scummers, I'm coming for you. be scared. and daniele, if you are mafia, I love you to death and that will never change, but as far as this game is concerned, consider yourself fucked. if you are town, you better start working with me (and maybe our joint town reads?) and we can take down the mafia together. got it? good. This doesn't line up at all with two things from NocturneMage's posts. 1. He said he hasn't read anything and is really busy. Then he's not ready to catch scum, he's not coming for scum, not for a considerable amount of time, anyway. This doesn't match. As Fecalfeast said, he's putting on a show. 2. Look at all of the main points (with regards to reads) that he said.
Note that this point is not as strong because it depends on NocturneMage's perception of his own play, not what his own play actually is like. There is a chance that NocturneMage considers this play to be extremely effective scumhunting, though I don't think this is the case because NocturneMage was very reasonable and capable as town last game. The first point stands regardless, though. In conclusion, NocturneMage is mafia. This is primarily shown through MoosyDoosy's play, as his play has seemingly conflicting mindsets that can only be explained by him being mafia, and he clearly did not try to solve the game. Furthermore, using meta makes the scumread of MoosyDoosy significantly stronger, as opposed to weakening it. NocturneMage's play is also very suspicious on its own, with an important mindset contradiction. I apologize that this post is so long (~19 pages of text, including quotes and code). I have already provided the essential version of this case, which is complete by itself. This explanation appears to be required for people to understand the case. Reading the entire case is not required, only the parts in question. But the conclusion is undeniable. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
MoosyDoosy says pre-game that he may not play Day 1 even though Damdred is in the game. MoosyDoosy also shows that he's upset when he rolls town. If MoosyDoosy is town, he wouldn't lie about being upset to roll town. Then he is never upset ever again in the game, which contradicts the earlier portion, regardless of Damdred's presence and its affect on his town play. Furthermore, MoosyDoosy doesn't actually play at all on Day 1. It's assumed that MoosyDoosy would be happy playing on Day 1 with Damdred, or not happy and not playing. These are the two town options. Happy and not playing is not an option. Like, that's a poorly worded explanation. If you have any questions, let me know. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
This is basically a 99.9% scumread with extremely few possible holes, if any. I've explained it in basically as much detail as possible and explained why all of the counterarguments are wrong. Why does no one care?!?! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 05:08 Damdred wrote: No, you're scum read by me.I haven't read any of the game since I went to bed, I'm universally town read ya? Then I'll catch up after night post unless I'm scum read I guess. I've asked you probably more than 5 questions (that I would consider important) that you never answered. Right now I only really really really care about one. Why did you scumread LightningStrike in this game? It seems to me that you scumread him primarily for having no scumreads. Looking at a past game where we both played together with LightningStrike (all of us town), I scumread LightningStrike for having no scumreads and you told me that that is not how to read LightningStrike. I'm wondering what the differences are/where your scumread came from. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I disagree with the readability of someone depending on what they actually do. I feel that as long as someone gets to like a page and a half or two pages of posts, you have enough information to get a fair shot at reading them. It doesn't matter what those posts are. Even if it's just a single period in every single post, I think it's reasonable to analyze the timing and frequency of those posts to figure out the alignment. Unless they're actually paying no attention to the game at all. Even scrolling down to the posting box would make them a bit more readable. But anyway, since you probably won't agree with my example, it's not always about what someone does. It's about what someone doesn't do. In this case, MoosyDoosy wasn't under suspicion and he did zero scumhunting. Judging by the three MoosyDoosy games I looked at (I asked for MoosyDoosy's worst town game and that was one of the games I analyzed), MoosyDoosy always does some useful things as town. It's the lack of those posts that is important, you don't need those posts to read him. Also, you're assuming that I can't have good reads too. Which isn't a very smart assumption, you should look at my play before you discount that possibility. Part 4 is a direct application of the same read methods that were used in Part 3. Part 3 says nothing about MoosyDoosy, it's basically a guide to scumhunting. Part 4 uses that guide. Just like Bill Murray's play came from two mindsets (nuking people was not caring/insane, then tried to solve the game seriously) and that made him mafia, MoosyDoosy's play came from two mindsets (angry to be town, then happily posting away) and that makes him mafia. Not showing any desire to solve the game is not a direct application of the method outlined in Part 3, however I think that the reasons why this almost always comes from scum are obvious. Part 5 actually says nothing by itself about MoosyDoosy in this game, it just shows that one potential flaw with the second part of Part 4 is not correct. Both of these two arguments individually are extremely strong. It's when you put them together, use the meta to show that it's correct, and then look at NocturneMage's play that you have a bunch of different reasons all pointing to the same thing that you really know it's right. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 05:37 Damdred wrote: I'm saying that those reasons are bad. I'm saying that because the reasons are bad, this makes you mafia. I'm saying that I know that the reasons are mafia-bad instead of town-bad because of this post. Believe me, I've looked at the reasons you scumread Damdred in this game. Just show me why I can't apply the post from the other game to your read in this game.Like I said I'm not going to have time to read up before deadline. I have the reasons I scummed ls in my filter several times. You so silly though disform. Also trfel since you are trying to be better at the game, you are using incomplete meta to try to prove someone is scum... While I applaud your tenacity show me something tangible ie actions from this game that are scum motivated. I've shown actions from this game for both MoosyDoosy and NocturneMage and why their actions are mafia motivated. I clearly explained why it is mafia motivated at the bottom of Part 4 and somewhere in Part 6, in addition to the explanations for why it can't come from town. As I already stated, the meta is NOT a reason to scumread MoosyDoosy, it's simply a reason to remove some doubt from the scumread. Your statements are very incorrect. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm short on time and I don't know exactly what I'm going to say when I start this post. This will probably end up being one of those evil "narratives". First post + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote: Well hello there strangers. My name is Damdred and we need a clear direction in this thread, I am the hero that you guys have and need. This is the plan, we each are responsible for our own reads but also communicating them to the thread. Firstly for the roles, nobody should talk about this besides an opinion going forward, if you are a named towny you should claim asap, it narrows down the pool that we lynch from and also gives us more to work with. however if you are the Vet do not claim unless absolutely necessary. If you are shot claim if you aren't shut the hell up. After you use your power claim straight away your findings if you are one shot obviously do not pussy foot away and give mafia the ability to cause town to second guess you. As such thank you for your time in reading this. Secondly I am going to try to keep my posts as concise as possible but with as much read information in it as I can, I will attempt to update the thread every 10-15 posts with where I have people and will be able to answer why they are there, I implore each of you to make as many reads as you can and when questioned do not freak out. Anyway lets have us a good game. Super Town: Damdred This post is mafia motivated because there is no scumhunting or thread progression at all in the post. Setup discussion is generally useless, as is telling everyone how you are going to play. I am pretty sure that Damdred actually didn't follow through with how he said he would play (concise, dense posts with an update every 10-15 posts). It's also mafia motivated because of what isn't there. There were several posts in the thread by the time that Damdred posted, including MoosyDoosy saying that he hadn't read his role PM and me (Trfel) voting for MoosyDoosy. He didn't want to talk or get involved in the discussion at all, even to make really weak start-of-game reads. This feels primarily motivated by wanting to look good to the thread. Damdred's initial suspicion of me (Trfel) + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote: Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later. Interesting... As I explained previously, LightningStrike's pregame post about his activity has no relevance on my alignment whatsoever. The fact that Damdred specifically mentioned the pregame post as a reason for me being mafia suggests that he's focused on looking good for remembering something pregame and using that pregame post as a point of leverage to scumread me, instead of actually finding mafia. Response to my first case on him + Show Spoiler + I give a really long case: On December 01 2015 09:16 Trfel wrote: He responds as follows:Damdred I need to go do some stuff, so I should explain this now instead of hoping someone else sees it. Required knowledge: 44 minutes after the start of the game (by deadline time, not actual start, thanks Blazinghand), I posted this: Damdred questioned me (Trfel) with this post:I pressured him, and he responded here:The key phrases are in bold. Basically, Damdred initially was suspicious of me (Trfel) for not reading the thread and trying to find someone to be suspicious of. And in his initial post with these suspicious, he specifically stated that these suspicions of me are only valid because of LightningStrike's pre-game excuse. LightningStrike's pre-game excuse has no implication on my alignment whatsoever. Damdred is basically saying that because my suspicion of LightningStrike was invalid, I was suspicious. However, why would I as mafia make a post about a player's inactivity when that player said, before the game, that they wouldn't be around at the start of the game? There is zero reason for mafia to do this. The only thing that LightningStrike's pre-game excuse says about my play is that my reason to be suspicious of LightningStrike was invalid. First, it was invalid without the pre-game excuse as well. And second, my argument being invalid doesn't have any relevance on my alignment. As does reading posts in the thread that were made before the game started. Damdred failed to address the main question that I asked, which was why LightningStrike's pre-game excuse affects my alignment. His suspicion of me made zero sense, and Damdred is a very sensible player as town. Combine this with his entrance post, completely ignoring everyone else in the thread and saying that his play would follow his (rough) scum meta of fewer posts more focused on analysis. On December 01 2015 09:16 Damdred wrote: Completely ignoring 95% of the things that I said.Ummmm.... Your so dumb trfel that's not my scum meta at all. This is mafia motivated because instead of actually addressing my arguments (he thinks that I'm town), he dismissed one point that's very subjective and difficult to argue about. Basically, he's ignoring the arguments that he can't do anything about, because he can't do anything about them, and only focusing on the one that he can. I would be okay if he had simply said "the rest of your arguments are true but that doesn't make me mafia", but he just said "you're dumb" and ignored most of my comments (this is what it says to do in the mafia guide, this is what I did to geript and NocturneMage last game as mafia when they raised good arguments against me). If you believe that someone is town and scumreading you for stupid reasons, it's ALWAYS beneficial to town to try to explain why they are wrong, both to increase your credibility and to let them catch actual scum. Damdred's townread on The Shining + Show Spoiler + (excerpt) On December 01 2015 09:46 Damdred wrote: 3) His attack on Palmar I think is genuinely town indicative. - Palmar is a hard target even for top townies, and while I think that shining is a good player as scum he generally attacks lower activity players, which fid could be an example of this. But his somewhat BM towards Palmar and his continued attack shows a clear lack of caring if he lives or dies. Which in shinings case actually is indicative of him being town. This point is very flawed, as Palmar mentioned. The Shining didn't know that Palmar would be a hard target when he initially scumread him, because Palmar was giving scumreads with no explanation; generally that's a very easy target. Damdred clearly didn't think this through, and it seems like he might not have actually been trying to figure out The Shining's alignment. Damdred avoided working with me and answering my questions + Show Spoiler + I'm not going to provide every example because it would take all day. I made a read, and Damdred responded as follows: On December 02 2015 02:33 Trfel wrote: I respond with this post. No scumread, no suspicion, just trying to figure something out. Again, he's townreading me at this point.I think it's great. Please explain? Damdred completely ignores me, and only (probably accidentally) answers the question when Half the Sky mentions my post. On December 02 2015 04:00 Damdred wrote: Damdred made several posts in between when I asked the question and when he finally discussed it again.that's a good thought and glad someone picked up on it. There are several people who are fitting into the same activity patterns so not sure why it would necessarily make x mafia over y. However there is another bad part to it and that's u flipped association which isn't as important. As previously explained, not talking about things with a townread is very harmful for town. However, talking about it only with someone else is intentionally malicious. It's possible that he just missed it, but there are a LOT of examples in the game. This is just the worst one. LightningStrike read + Show Spoiler + I'm going to use red for all of the times he scumreads LightningStrike for having no scumreads (or something very similar) On December 02 2015 09:36 Damdred wrote: Disinformation Eels Damdred Shining Palmar Leans Trfel Fid (falling) Ls Honestly it's notso bad so far even though I've read 0 filters. On December 03 2015 06:09 Damdred wrote: (this post less than two hours before the lynch, this is an entrance post)I'm not so sure moosey is mafia. I've given other reads however I think that LS is mafia and I should be sheeped on this. On December 03 2015 06:13 Damdred wrote: Sure LS usually even if he is wrong is a strongish prescense in the thread giving his opinion and trying to get people to interact with him while he gives scum reads. He lacks real reads in the thread, the few he has given have been little substance. The one scum read I can tell in his filter was Trfel that he has totally backed off of. He isn't looking to push anyone he is just existing. On December 03 2015 06:38 Damdred wrote: Honestly Palmar I feel pretty strongly about LS I know its a bit of work, but just do me this favor and look at him its 2 pages of filter if that. He has 0 scum reads, he town reads people for little reason showing no fear of me or you who he generally has a great deal of respect/fear for our scum games. Has absolutely no scum reads, has no positions in the thread. Just see if i'm right/wrong and tell me and then if you think i'm so dead wrong we can talk about maybe lynching kush/onegu On December 03 2015 07:01 Damdred wrote: Let me juts simply state why LS is scum so people will go yep sheep the damdred. 1) Little to no reads 2) No scum hunting 3) Not really involved in the thread as it goes forward, really side lined 4) Has no scum reads at all even states as much 5) His trfel progression is very strange Good lynch indeed On December 03 2015 07:57 Damdred wrote: This post basically says "LightningStrike is bad and I'm willing to lynch someone else" while implying that LightningStrike is mafia the entire time.If you flip VT like you claim LS you only have yourself to blame, you posted no real reads didn't hunt scum now you aren't even trying to be helpful to the thread. I'm willing to move to Kush or DY if we have the people though as I don't like there switch On December 04 2015 06:09 Damdred wrote: I address the first point of this post right here. Last game, as mafia, I made a case on scott31337 last game and got him lynched instead of my scum partner Breshke. Just because everyone followed me does NOT justify it, you have to look back at the reasons and determine the motivation, which is what I've done and what Damdred isn't actually answering.My axum read is in my filter, if it was so bad at the time why did people hop on? if the only reason that I posted was ls had no scum reads I could understand it but that's a gross misrepresentation of the points against ls. Also lol to me and moosey on a team together, damdred the scum partner who will get himself scum read to save his team mates. That's the reputation I have boys Okay, so here I'll name every point that Damdred raised against LightningStrike.
On December 04 2015 06:09 Damdred wrote: Hm, interesting. His continued dismissal of my question is also interesting, because if you read the initial post where I asked it and the game I referenced, my case on LightningStrike in that game said many of the same things that Damdred said in this game. Here is the post where I explained this. And below is a list of the points I raised against LightningStrike in that past game.My axum read is in my filter, if it was so bad at the time why did people hop on? if the only reason that I posted was ls had no scum reads I could understand it but that's a gross misrepresentation of the points against ls. Also lol to me and moosey on a team together, damdred the scum partner who will get himself scum read to save his team mates. That's the reputation I have boys
Second one is a very bold claim that isn't supported by any evidence that Damdred provided (no scum reads and no scum hunting are very, very different things). Looking through LightningStrike's filter for evidence of scumhunting. + Show Spoiler + Again, LightningStrike's suspicion of me felt very genuine. On December 01 2015 12:18 LightningStrike wrote: Hi guys I had just got home and read and Tfrel tried to snipe me when I was gone even though in the pregame I EVEN TOLD EVERYONE I WAS GOING TO BE GONE TILL NOW -_- Here the quote for proof: Anyways Tfrel seems like a scumlean for now for trying to snipe me and tried to case Damdred when Damdred caught tfrel on the fact that I told everyone I wasn't going to be here till now. Palmar seems town for now he actually being serious although I don't think Shining is really scum yet but he fooled me till later in my last game when he was scum. I also liking Damdred this game for his responses and actually trying to hunt scum. I need more time on MD because his play style is so weird my experience playing with him and hosting/cohosting games involving him. DYH seems townlean he actually tried to comment on stuff that is relevant to the game. @kush: If you are here what you think of Shining vs Palmar? @Palmar: Okay if Shining is town then who is mafia and why? Also some Christmas pictures for Palmar because I know he's a huge sucker for Christmas: ![[image loading]](http://soclday.com/p/2015/10/images-of-christmas-xaqo9t5w.jpg) On December 01 2015 12:52 LightningStrike wrote: Meta reads with a specific game mention I think are a bit more common from LightningStrike's town play than mafia play.I was just trying to see if your thoughts had changed since you cooled off. Anyways I think Palmar is town he did this very similarly how he did when I first played with him in Metal Mini when I was town vs his town. Damdred is town like I said earlier I liked his responses since it's a Damdred thought. James is null atm because he went straight to bed afterwards. Also Hi Damdred how are you? On December 01 2015 20:02 LightningStrike wrote: Again, I really like this post about DoYouHas. I don't agree with the reasoning that LightningStrike used here, but it was something very different from what I expected. This suggests that LightningStrike is actually thinking about things and trying to solve the game, just in a very different way than I am. Given how LightningStrike's stance at the time was contrary to about 80% of the things that DoYouHas had said, this read feels like it wouldn't come from scum and shows thought.Hi I just woke up and I am feeling tired still because I obviously only got like 7 hours of sleep so if I sound tired based on my posts that's why but some people had some comments/questions towards me: He wasn't really afraid to post his thoughts on the stuff when he was around and I know it's limited content but still when he was around he did try to be involved a little bit. I might be a huge sucker for people. I had posted paragraphs as town before when I wasn't there at the start of the day for a entry post(see slytherin) but about attacking Trfel: it seemed like he wants to try and find a reason to scum read me even though I had said in the pregame that I wouldn't be around till like 4 hours after start of the game. Just a little bit frustrated from that and I glad Damdred called him out on it too. On December 02 2015 01:11 LightningStrike wrote: Just got to college campus and took care of stuff and about Palmar: It's meta read that I have on him because he did similar stuff to me in Metal Mini which you observed and I do find Shining town for now although he did show huge emotions as scum last game but I giving him a benefit of a doubt. Mainly Shining's content seems better ths game than his last game when he was scum vs me. On December 02 2015 07:32 LightningStrike wrote: Openly admitting that he has no scum reads is generally slightly town, from my experience. But LightningStrike provides what he intends to do going forward and shares his thoughts.Back from class after some relaxation. Idk yet this game is getting a little hard. I wish that Onegu and Kush actually do stuff so I can flesh them out in terms of alignment. Otherwise after considering that he did his thing on me as a trap(if I reading this correctly) Tfrel moved to null for now but still it was kind of a weird thing to do for him. Idk why people having trouble with DYS? I see him more of a newbie player than a veteran player honestly so(shrugs). So nothing yet for a team. On December 03 2015 00:21 LightningStrike wrote: Look, it's a "fear read" on Rels! Isn't the lack of these a reason that Damdred called LightningStrike mafia? Plus, LightningStrike is actually explaining his townreads on Palmar and Damdred (the two people that Damdred specifically mentioned), and Damdred thinks that both of them are really obvious townreads this game. This basically invalidates the other point that Damdred was making again, as well as showing scumhunting.Well I am now full awake after some time(Mountain Dew FTW for Caffeine). Palmar and Damdred are certainly Town. Palmar like I said his seriousness and his behavior towards Shining earlier was pretty much what he did when I played with him in Metal Mini when he showed similar behavior towards me. Damdred is actually full tryhard mode plus he actually trying to steer the direction of the town a few times. Rels I would like to call him town but his town game is so similar to his scum game as I been fooled by him in my last games I had played before taking a break -_- On December 03 2015 03:16 LightningStrike wrote: To me, "for note" means "I'm going to save this for later because I think it's important (aka suspicious)". This is scumhunting and this makes a lot of sense for LightningStrike to say.It's implied I thought O_o(At least how I read it and I hope she gets better soon honestly) Also for note you played a shit ton of games with me when I'm town and I surprised you kinda forgot how I play This is everything pre-scumread. Summarizing all of this to "no scum hunting" without any explanation is a very, very large jump. Again, it's not what you think that someone is doing, but what they think they are doing. This is how LightningStrike scum hunts, read any of his town games. I tried to concisely demonstrate this by showing that Damdred doesn't scumread LightningStrike for similar play (aka no scum reads, no thread presence). I actually didn't think that anyone ever described LightningStrike as being a high thread presence player as town, so that's a very strange comment from Damded as well. Basically, it seems to me like Damdred's LightningStrike read came out of nowhere, with reasons that make no sense at all and Damdred definitely knew that they didn't make sense. And Damdred was clearly more interested in pushing the LightningStrike read than actually figuring out LightningStrike's alignment (shown by him saying the same point multiple times and making such a big deal out of the irrelevant point). Conclusion Damdred is likely to be mafia, ignoring MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage's alignment. Alone, these points aren't the strongest, but they all say the same thing. These reasons aren't entirely explained, and I have a few more reasons that I don't think are easy to explain (that are probably stronger... the difficult to explain ones tend to be better). Any questions, feel free to ask. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 06:53 Fidei86 wrote: I did not move off of LightningStrike and on to MoosyDoosy. I was on LightningStrike at the deadline.Trfel you were convinced LS was scum, urged people not to shift off him, weren't convinced by the "mod confirmed" argument, but then moved off him and onto MD? Yes you were on MD before LS, but why? I described this already, here: On December 03 2015 08:30 Trfel wrote: And I decided that LightningStrike's posts that I thought were suspicious were not suspicious, because it's just an extreme extension of desire to survive, which can come from both alignments (LightningStrike as town really really really plays to survive). Combined with voting analysis, which suggested that LightningStrike was town, I ended in a townread.To me, LightningStrike's comments that I quoted indicate that he's scum, and I can't really see him being town despite that. However, the bulk of his play seems like a town lean (pre-yelling) to me. I tried to explain why earlier. The yelling itself seemed extremely towny, I'm used to LightningStrike reacting like that as town and the pre-lynch post is a strong town indicator. All of this combined makes me confident in my LightningStrike town read, were it not for the scummy thing above. Right now my guess is that LightningStrike is town and the thing that I mentioned isn't as important as I thought, even if I'm not quite sure why yet. There is no mafia motivation for it, so maybe that's why it's unimportant. I'm not quite as confident in MoosyDoosy being scum any more, because generally people would listen to me when I'm right. Like, I don't see how I could be wrong, however I need to clear my head and take another look. I think he is likely scum, though. I'm not sure what his post-deadline posts suggest, I'm really terrible at reading into emotions so I might have to ignore those. I'm not entirely sure what you are getting at, hopefully that answered your question. If not, please ask. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
LightningStrike disformation Fecalfeast Town Lean DoYouHas Rels (could be scum, watch out) Fidei86 Half the Sky The Shining Palmar (could be scum, watch out) Mafia Lean Damdred (strong lean) Mafia NocturneMage Unfortunately, my town leans are not very strong. The "could be scum, watch out" is partially a fear read, but has other reasons too. A few of them: Palmar backed off of The Shining rather abruptly. When he plays seriously as town, he often carries his first push really really far (see his push on justanothertownie in the game where we were masons together). I don't believe there's much followup on The Shining in his filter, which is really strange from town!Palmar. Palmar moved to lynch LightningStrike for Damdred's reasons, I've explained why they are bad. In the past, Palmar's always been willing to work with LightningStrike, so I would have thought he wouldn't switch to LightningStrike like that, but I could be wrong. I do remember him switching from "this is an objectively good lynch" (MoosyDoosy) to "no reason not to lynch him" (LightningStrike), which seems suspicious. Rels' first post Rels saying that my point on MoosyDoosy was really good, then forgetting about it, then coming back and saying that he didn't like it because of something completely unrelated to my point My reasons for suspecting Palmar are better, I think, but they both could maybe be mafia here. I haven't taken a look at any of my towns/town leans in a while, though. My case on Damdred included some mafia motivations, but it's not all mafia motivations. There are mafia motivations behind his actions, I didn't always specify them because people don't seem to care about mafia motivation this game. The real reasons that I'm most suspicious of Damdred (that no one else will agree with) are: 1. Damdred mentioned mafia motivation, despite saying that mafia motivation is unimportant whenever he addressed my points on MoosyDoosy. He also did not explain why LightningStrike's play fit mafia motivation, just why it was bad on the surface. 2. Damdred has been malicious this game in the way he misrepresents thing and avoids answering questions/interacting. This is not something I expect from town!Damdred. Then there are all of the points that I brought up in the case, then there's the mafia motivations that I brought up in the case, then there's the mafia motivations that I didn't bring up. There's a lot of stuff. I like how NocturneMage is explaining to me (his strongest scumread) why my case is bad. My case on him being wrong was one of the reasons that he said I was mafia. In case there is somehow still any doubt on NocturneMage | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm pretty confident in my scum reads that I laid out in my list post, not so confident in my town reads. Even the full town reads, not the town leans, unfortunately. For example, I remembered that disformation's activity is a bit concerning: last game as town, he had the longest filter in the game, this game he's not been all that active. If he's scum, it's his first time being scum, however he's played so many games as town that he might be decent at it on his first try. My prediction is that Rels is town and that he dies at night, and that the mafia team is NocturneMage, Damdred, and Palmar. Rels dies because mafia can't shoot me, I'm too vocal, it would confirm that my reads are correct. Rels dies because he's less vocal, he's sort of in line with me, he's suspicious of all of the suspects, and he's a darn good player. If someone other than me, Rels, and Palmar dies, I'll be surprised. Maybe even a bit surprised if Palmar dies, because of Rels' case. That reminds me, I never gave Rels' case(s? there were two, right?) a reread like I meant to. Apologies. I will do so. Anyway, the below is for if I die. And only for if I die. Please don't read it if I don't die + Show Spoiler [only read if Trfel is dead Day 2] + First, if the town vigilante shot me, that's fairly frustrating, I was obvious town. But whatever, that doesn't mean that my reads are wrong. Me being dead is probably beneficial to confirm that I am being truthful in my reads. Lately, my read accuracy has been pretty good. My last two town games in a row, I was very onto the scum team some time in Day 2. The most recent town game, I'll share an example from Day 2. Everyone was united in lynching someone. I read them as town, I defended them the entire day and tried to explain why they were town. I also caught scum and explained why they were scum and pushed them as scum. In the end, no one listened and the player flipped town, and the player I was pushing was scum. I know what I'm doing sometimes. Note that this game, I read LightningStrike as town (minus that one post) for most of Day 1 while everyone else said otherwise, and now he's very very likely town. I'm not saying that I'm right 100% on all of my reads, I'm just saying that if mafia shoots me, I'm right on at least one, probably more. Mafia does not possibly shoot me for WIFOM here because I'm the most active player in the thread. I've been pushing the most things with the most confidence. If I'm wrong, then I'm basically handing the game to mafia on a silver platter because there's almost no way I will stop pushing my targets, and mafia knows this. Combine this with my read accuracy the last two games, and mafia can't shoot me. Their only option is to leave me alive and try to reduce my influence or otherwise force me out of the game; maybe even try to mislynch me. First, NocturneMage needs to be lynched unless he does something extremely towny. So far, his play has been quite scummy; the emotion change from angry/determined to calmly discussing with the strongest scumread doesn't make sense from town. I don't expect much to change from him. If NocturneMage does flip scum, Damdred should almost always be lynched next. Doesn't matter if Damdred turns around and busses NocturneMage, he's still scum. As for why Damdred would defend mafia!MoosyDoosy on Day 1 instead of letting him get lynched? It's MoosyDoosy, he finally rolled mafia and he loves to be mafia. Were I mafia, I'd try my best to move mountains and keep him alive. Damdred isn't scum (for association) because he saved MoosyDoosy, he's scum because of how he saved MoosyDoosy by misrepresenting the reasons to scumread him, and then fabricated reasons to lynch (basically confirmed town) LightningStrike instead. Good luck. Every single player, regardless of alignment, is playing a good game. It's been an honor. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia. DoYouHas The Shining disformation Fecalfeast | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote: NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list.Hrm. My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia. DoYouHas The Shining disformation Fecalfeast I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:31 Fidei86 wrote: Yeah, I'm currently thinking that maybe Half the Sky is scum and NocturneMage is right. In which case.... I need to talk with MoosyDoosy after the game and figure out what happened there.I'm actually almost completely sold on this case. If Dani wasn't having an awful time with the sickness, I would be very confident she was mafia. The key points for me are: 1. Tone. Her posts have a lifeless quality, but it's not clear she actually believe anything she's posting. I mentioned this earlier. 2. At EOD she was 'voting' for LS but wasn't looking for another candidate, then moved onto kush. I've done multiple EOD's with her and usually she's actively trying to solve. It's not clear that she was trying to solve. Both of those things could be explained by themselves viz the sickness, but both of them together, combined with her actually okay activity? I think Alex might well be right on this. I need to read her filter more carefully, but that's for tomorrow. Also can we have a new rule that only people who didn't blindly follow me into the EOD lynch can call me scum? (Okay, MD and Trfel did not follow me, but that precludes a decent chunk of the rest of you). By the way, Fidei86: Hi, scum | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote: Was waiting for someone to ask that.But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was hoping that no one asked that I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:44 The Shining wrote: I added the italics on my own. That sentence is wrong; my post analyzed the implications of the night kill alone, with little regard to things that weren't the night kill. When I made that post I was not yet sure what to do about NocturneMage (I'm still not, but leaning towards town).Trfel: MD is 100% scum. NM is scum. NM: your case is bad. Trfel: list post. NM is scum. Damdred(flipped town) is scumlean. Discuss Damdred in list post, + fear reads on Palmar and Rels. One line response to NM about "explaining to Trfel(his strongest scumread) why his case is bad.". In case there is any doubt. Trfel: pretty sure the game is solved. Damdred is NKd. Trfel: DYH Shining Disfo FF are scum.(NM read goes poof) NM: Fidei and HtS are probably scum. Trfel: NM is right on Fidei, might be right on HtS. ?????????????? I said that NocturneMage is right about Fidei86 being possible scum, and I should add him to the "more suspicious" list (again, NOT the scum list; I don't have a scum list). Looking through Half the Sky's filter so far, everything seems fine (especially given that she has a cold) individually, but there seems to be no flow at all. It's a lot of commenting with few conclusions, and she's discussing a million different things with no progression on the scumreads (not pushing them or trying to figure out their alignment). I'll keep going and see if something changes, but it seems that Half the Sky is probably mafia. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
@Fidei86, yeah I can definitely see that with regards to LightningStrike at end of day. The "time to bleed town rainbows" quote struck me by surprise, and some of his read changes between End of Day and the start of Night 1 don't quite make sense, even from the "extreme survival and extremely mad" perspective. I'm still very hesitant to lynch LightningStrike at this time, though... Honestly, I'd most expect him to play like that if Damdred were the scum telling him what to do. But that obviously didn't happen. I'll check his filter later. I guess LightningStrike also counts as a "lower activity / under the radar" player ever since the deadline, and I could see him shooting Damdred. Bleh. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:51 The Shining wrote: I don't think that my reasoning is flawed because in this case, Damdred would actively block the NocturneMage wagon and look for alternatives. I mean, it's possible that NocturneMage would shoot Damdred, however I think that's less likely. I decided to help resolve this by looking at Half the Sky for a bit (assuming for the moment that they aren't both scum and that if NocturneMage is right on Half the Sky, he's very likely town), and Half the Sky seems to be fairly likely scum, which makes me think that NocturneMage may be more likely town.Your last scum game, you scummed, cased and shot Geript N1. This game you scummed, cased Damdred N1 and now he's NKd. This is such am obvious similarity that I'm almost inclined to think it's too bad to be scummy but this explanation is a bit long and contradictory, too. The NM not wanting to shoot Damdred logic is flawed. Especially if he had him as a townread, I'll have to go back to that. I personally as scum have shot Damdred before after he townread me to keep that read immortal, and I know others have NKd people that were TRing them before they had time to revisit that read. You also think that Damdred has an extremely good read on me, and towned me, so I'd kill him for it? This is a contradiction because you say its exactly why NM WOULDNT kill him for it. Are you saying I'm scum and scared he'd flip his read on me so I shot him before he could? Then why does that same situation make me scum but makes NM town? It's different for you and NocturneMage because he was about to be under a ton of pressure and you weren't. I'm not saying that you are definitely scum because of the night kill, but it makes me a little bit more suspicious of you (and that was a town lean before). | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote: Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing.I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either. What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for? @Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Half the Sky's read progression/scumhunting + Show Spoiler + Suspicious of Trfel (covering something up with LightningStrike early on), suspicious of disformation (not taking many stances), null on Rels, Damdred, MoosyDoosy, FIdei86 (why so many null reads?!?!) Investigating the Palmar/The Shining argument, no conclusion yet Palmar's post resolves Half the Sky's question about why Palmar's push on The Shining doesn't make sense (no conclusion yet) Half the Sky questions one of Trfel's suspicions of Damdred (accuses it of being a reach) Above statement clarified to be a misunderstanding (still no conclusion) Says that she was initially suspicious of Palmar for his push on The Shining (at least it seems to read this way?) but is within the realm of his town play (seems to be sort of suspicious of both of them but not enough to push it?) Fidei86 is town for how he "broke down the case" (not sure what case, I'll check later), suspicious of DoYouHas for lack of followup on Trfel, suspicious of kushm4sta for bad assumption (later clarifies to be scum leans) Question to disformation about The Shining Null/scum lean on LightningStrike, pending some questions A bit suspicious of kushm4sta for TMI More suspicious of kushm4sta for not changing his vote Questions to LightningStrike Questions to LightningStrike (seems to accept answers for the Palmar questions above) Needs to reread Trfel, Damdred, Fidei86, disformation, LightningStrike; lynch list is kushm4sta and DoYouHas, maybe policy Onegu, townread on Palmar Agrees with LightningStrike about his answer to one of her standing questions Decides that she doesn't agree with LightningStrike's read on Palmar, but doesn't think that he is mafia for this Votes for DoYouHas Seems to not want to lynch Trfel and LightningStrike, answers my question (why vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta) by saying she's suspicious of both of them Back to a null on Trfel (maybe I misread the previous post where I thought she said she didn't want to lynch Trfel?) Doesn't really want to lynch MoosyDoosy, a bit nervous of Fidei86, maybe has to resort to policy lynch, revisiting DoYouHas (why still discussing Trfel and Fidei86, not her top suspects, less than two hours to the deadline?) Thinks that there's a contradiction in these two LightningStrike posts Apparently the above was enough to make Half the Sky switch votes.. what?? Question to Fidei86 about LightningStrike read Doubt about lynching LightningStrike Suspicious of LightningStrike for meta comparison with a town game Decides that LightningStrike is a bad lynch Switches votes to kushm4sta, presumably at The Shining's request For now, this seems like scum. The progression isn't there, there is no focus at all. This is the original "boring Half the Sky is mafia Half the Sky" read that Holyflare and marvellosity used. However I am in a rush, so I will take a look over this again later. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
So yeah, I really don't know about NocturneMage but for now I think that lynching Half the Sky is better. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Spoiler because I don't like talking about town, this doesn't help find scum. + Show Spoiler + My play was too self-focused, too ego-focused. What I ended up doing was, if MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage is town, I created the easiest mislynch for mafia ever. When I realized that, I got really scared. It prevents my normal "sanity check" because I can't know if people who agree with my case actually agree with it or if they're just "along for the ride". Also, the one confirmed town player who commented on my case (Damdred, who is an incredible player) wasn't sold. My night kill analysis probably wasn't very good. The only things I should really take from the night kill is that I'm quite fallible, and that Damdred thought that MoosyDoosy is town. I do note that someone mentioned Damdred scumreading DoYouHas and Half the Sky, that's interesting because I specifically looked for those two and didn't see anything. Did I miss stuff? I also really messed up my thinking. I was thinking that I could sanity check NocturneMage for my read, because if he was scum I was thinking I could push him out of the game and he couldn't get the motivation to play. The Damdred night kill threw me off really badly and I let NocturneMage into the game, preventing that read from working. But for some reason I forgot that I backed off of him before he actually did anything, and applied this to townread him a little bit. Scumreading me for changing my mind is stupid. How does this help mafia/hurt town? The only way it does is if NocturneMage is mafia. So basically, I bussed MoosyDoosy that heavily from Day 1, when I know that MoosyDoosy loves playing mafia? When I hate playing mafia, I would take that opportunity away from someone who loves it? No, I'd tell him to bus me. Like, I get that this is self-meta and it's bad. But there is no mafia motivation for this play, however you look at it. Also, about activity, I've basically been playing mafia full time. I've been falling behind on classes, homework, studying. Something is going to need to break, and I really hope that it's my involvement in this game, because I simply can't play mafia this much and fulfill my responsibilities. Plus I don't seem to be helping that much, so there's no need for me to be that active. I think that The Shining is town because I can never scumread people who townread me. Big flaw. But I'm going with that for now because I feel behind on every single filter right now, so I'll start there. NocturneMage could very easily be bussing Half the Sky here because Half the Sky is sick. It could be worth it to bus in this case (both for NocturneMage to get towncredit and to relieve Half the Sky's responsibility for playing the game). I'm not saying that NocturneMage's push makes him mafia because of this, or that it's any more likely that he's mafia because of this, just that I don't think that a Half the Sky scum flip makes him look much better (relative to what you would think before the flip... I haven't quite decided what I think about that yet). I think I kind of just want to take a break for the evening and rest, I'm darn tired. If anyone has any questions, or wants to talk about anything, let me know, I can try to look stuff up and give thoughts. But otherwise I think I'll just rest. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm just going to go to sleep. Good night, all. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 21:29 Palmar wrote: I wouldn't mind this post except he's apologizing. I wouldn't expect town!Palmar to apologize. I should check some meta on this.Sort of happy I decided to ignore tinfoil damdred is mafia and just roll with him as town. I'm not really putting in the effort I should this game, so sorry about that. I'll make a decision on who I want to lynch tonight or tomorrow. On December 04 2015 22:17 Fidei86 wrote: Okay, so why does this make him mafia? Why couldn't he do this as town?In terms of solving the game I think we need to focus on Alex/NM, Dani/HTS, LS and Trfel. I am convinced one or both of Alex/Dani is Mafia. I do not think LS is in any way cleared by EOD stuff (there was a big switch going on and he was actually already saved when he posted GG). I love LS, but I think even he would have to admit his play so far has been garbage. Trfel is all over the place, and several people have given reasons why he could be scum. His play style is v v different to anything I've come across before. On December 04 2015 22:38 Palmar wrote: It's interesting that Palmar said this, but that he had no read on Fidei86.well if alex is nocturn, and you genuinely believe that, then we should absolutely lynch her, becuase I vastly prefer his filter over hers. On December 04 2015 23:05 Rels wrote: Why would I ever kill Damdred? When I've finally gotten you (presumably town) to be suspicious of Damdred as well, and when Damdred isn't suspicious of me?NK analysis is WIFOM. But Damdred's kill points at Trfel being scum. Any scum team without Trfel would let Trfel pushes at Damdred. Now I'm catching up the 10 pages I didn't read. Also, I'm very confident that LightningStrike is town now. Since the start of Night 1, he's given some very important town tells, which I don't remember him doing as mafia. This means that if he is mafia, someone who knows him well is likely also mafia. On December 04 2015 23:35 Rels wrote: This is simply wrong. Damdred said that he wasn't townreading NocturneMage, but he was clearly resistant to the lynch (as he showed on Day 1). And again, scum doesn't care to keep someone who is townreading them alive if that mafia is going to live for a few days.Yes! Yes yes yes. This is contradictory. Furthermore, this is false: Damdred said: So on the contrary, scum!NM has no reason to no shoot Damdred. He has no reason to particulary shoot him too; but "f NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here." is false. Like, if The Shining is mafia, he knew that he probably wasn't going to die for a day or two, and that's a lot that could potentially change Damdred's read. Damdred's townread doesn't really mean much and it's okay to kill Damdred, and there's fear that Damdred could figure it out. But NocturneMage was at a high chance of getting lynched the very next day, in which case Damdred's read on him at that very moment (null being better than everyone else's read, and Damdred had a lot of influence, and wouldn't lynch a null read) would be really valuable. Basically, NocturneMage would just have to stay null or look a little better and Damdred would likely try to stop the lynch. I already said that this has too many variables and I'm unable to accurately draw a conclusion from the night kill. I believe the reasons by my earlier analysis but I no longer trust the conclusion. If you think I'm scum for being wrong, you should read any one of my town games, because I'm wrong a whole darn lot. On December 04 2015 23:47 Rels wrote: Why do you say this?fidei is super likely town. NM I have a super hard time seeing him attacking HTS heads on if he's not town. But his tone is super not analytical, which is super suspicious to me. I think it's really strange that DoYouHas made a big point of looking at kushm4sta's reads after the lynch, but didn't look D Damdred's reads after the night kill. If anything, I'd expect the opposite. On December 05 2015 00:46 NocturneMage wrote: On the surface, this makes sense.This does not answer my fundamental concern. HTS is a fucking fantastic motivator of coachees as either alignment and when she is mafia it is FUCKING PROVEN SHE MOTIVATES TEAMMATES TO VICTORY REGARDLESS OF TRACK RECORD AS MAFIA. She uses whiskey, she has leadership to pull her teammates together. In her first scum game her roleblocker almost crashed out. She spent fucking 2 hours in QT keeping him in the game and carried her team. In her most previous game as Mafia, she replaces in and immediately comes with a plan for her remaining scummate (they lost a scummer day one) who from my understanding reading that game and respective scum qt (when I was Mafia in newbie 13) is generally a poor scum player. You and her from what I can tell generally have a very good relationship with each other. Therefore my argument of her being able to motivate ANYONE is valid. Even so there is a shittonne of evidence outside her meta that indicates you are mafia. However, Half the Sky has been unable to post for quite some time now (~36 hours, I believe?). So NocturneMage is arguing that Half the Sky is coaching and motivating LightningStrike but doesn't have the energy to actually play the game herself. Unless NocturneMage is arguing that the coaching stopped at the end of Day 1 (which is still really strange, given how much LightningStrike's play changed after the lynch), I'm having trouble seeing how he can honestly think this. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote Half the Sky | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 03:14 Fidei86 wrote: My first post responded to comments in the thread since I went to sleep. Half the Sky didn't post.@Trfel you made a big long post (for reasons?) that barely mentions HTS except to say you don't think she was coaching LS after she AFK'd, then eight minutes later you've had time to read and consider her whole filter and decided she's Mafia? Huh? I already looked through Half the Sky's filter, I made a really convenient read progression analysis that stated how her reads changed, why they changed, and had links so I could check posts for more info if necessary. I had already looked through this and found the things I thought made her likely mafia, I just wanted to confirm them when I was rested and had more time. I did so. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 03:37 Rels wrote: So why isn't he scum pushing scum?Trfel: because if he's scum pushing town he will be killed as soon as Hts flips town. Except for the activity, NocturneMage's filter seems really bad. I'm not sure how to reconcile the two. I'm sure that if you make that many posts in that short of a time, town would make some errors. But he seems to forget who he's scumreading, and is just throwing reasons to scumread everyone. The way he's so focused on randomly (imo nonsensically) pushing four people (with read progressions that don't make sense) and completely ignores everyone else without discussing them at all doesn't feel towny at all. But that's not really mafia motivation, and is probably unreliable. But so is activity. I think that townreading NocturneMage for activity alone is really bad here. He played one scumgame and hated it, and now he's in this game and is pushing things really aggressively and posting a ton. How could he be scum here? Hm... I absolutely hated my first scum game and barely played at all. In my second scum game, I destroyed town and was a top townread for basically everyone most of the game. There are other factors too, like he finally gets to play with Half the Sky, he's clearly excited to play mafia again (the game, not alignment), that could potentially cause the higher activity as mafia. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + [ignoring the first series of posts] Trfel's case on NocturneMage is terrible (no conclusion, tone seems to suggest Trfel is town, but town does that to their scumreads sometimes) Confident in two of the mafia Half the Sky and Fidei86 are mafia (Half the Sky for meta, voting analysis, mafia motive / Fidei86 for being different from his previous games) Sort of suspicious of Palmar (can't follow him) Suspicious of Fidei86 for soft-pushing Half the Sky Suspicious of Trfel for reversing NocturneMage read Explanation of the mafia motivation for Half the Sky lynching kushm4sta instead of LightningStrike Association between Fidei86 and Half the Sky Frustrated about being scumread (when he's under no threat of lynch?), no more scumread on Fidei86 (why???) Trfel is insane or mafia LightningStrike has a bad filter and his End of Day could easily come from scum (unrelated note, NocturneMage is using a ton of meta, often incorrectly applied, and then yelling at people for using meta... will check NocturneMage's meta use from previous town games, if it's not high, then meta suggests he is mafia )LightningStrike made a dumb post Frustrated with LightningStrike's lack of scumreads Thinks that Fidei86 may not be mafia because he posted about associations between Half the Sky and LightningStrike Nonsensical post about LightningStrike (draws conclusions from nowhere, interprets things that he thinks LightningStrike is saying with no reason to do so) Doesn't understand a LightningStrike post Currently has Trfel and Fidei86 as scumreads (other than Half the Sky and LightningStrike) (Fidei86 for association and overall gameplay, Trfel for constant usage of terrible points to case people) Gets mad at LightningStrike for not understanding/accepting his argument about why Half the Sky is mafia (huh???? He's scumreading LightningStrike) More convinced that LightningStrike is mafia Top scum reads Half the Sky, Fidei86, LightningStrike, Trfel, needs to re-examine DoYouHas and Palmar Leaning mafia on Trfel, says that LightningStrike is mafia because of bad filter and associations with Half the Sky Strongly thinks LightningStrike is mafia (says he will lynch LightningStrike after Half the Sky) Scumreads LightningStrike because Half the Sky could motivate him to play, but tons of non-associative reasons too Says LightningStrike's post is bad, says that he wants someone to kill himself (?? LightningStrike is mafia, though??), asks a question to LightningStrike (but LightningStrike is mafia??) On the surface, this seems really bad. But that's "objectively bad", not mafia bad. Lunch, then a look for mafia motivation, and a look at meta. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 03:51 Rels wrote: Yes, I think so.Then Hts is scum regardless of nm s alignment right ? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
He hasn't been really posting for that long, which makes it hard to pin him on long-term mafia motivations. But short-term, it looks like he's playing a momentum style of mafia. If you don't know what that is, it's how I like play as mafia, because it's the most fun (the term is my own in origin, though others may use it before to mean the same thing, or possibly something else, idk ). Basically the point is to be pushing people so much (either in force or in number of pushes or both) that everyone's so busy with that that they don't stop to realize that you're mafia. The characteristics of this are clearly shown in NocturneMage's play.
Thoughts? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 04:39 Trfel wrote: Sorry for the double post, but I should explain this better.I think that NocturneMage is mafia. He hasn't been really posting for that long, which makes it hard to pin him on long-term mafia motivations. But short-term, it looks like he's playing a momentum style of mafia. If you don't know what that is, it's how I like play as mafia, because it's the most fun (the term is my own in origin, though others may use it before to mean the same thing, or possibly something else, idk ). Basically the point is to be pushing people so much (either in force or in number of pushes or both) that everyone's so busy with that that they don't stop to realize that you're mafia. The characteristics of this are clearly shown in NocturneMage's play.
Thoughts? First, the "momentum mafia" part of this post is the least important part. It's also very subjective, and I don't care to debate it. I'm not saying that these characteristics always come from mafia. However, I think that it is mafia indicative for NocturneMage because they're all so different from his town play. The other points were described by the read progression I posted earlier. You should be able to see them yourself in that. The Fidei86 read progression is really strange as far as a logical read goes, and the LightningStrike posts show emotional responses that don't make sense from town. I only commented on a few things, there are many more things than I mentioned. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 07:14 NocturneMage wrote: This is so, so, so, so, so stupid/wrong.ebwop - ls not taking many stances is mafia motivated because when he flips we can't sort out his teammates (or assuming an LS/HTS/+1 team) the final teammate. NocturneMage is mafia. Hand is numb and I can barely type. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 03:49 Trfel wrote: Here, I say that it's really strange/scummy that NocturneMage keeps trying to convince his scum reads that they are scummy.NocturneMage read progression + Show Spoiler + [ignoring the first series of posts] Trfel's case on NocturneMage is terrible (no conclusion, tone seems to suggest Trfel is town, but town does that to their scumreads sometimes) Confident in two of the mafia Half the Sky and Fidei86 are mafia (Half the Sky for meta, voting analysis, mafia motive / Fidei86 for being different from his previous games) Sort of suspicious of Palmar (can't follow him) Suspicious of Fidei86 for soft-pushing Half the Sky Suspicious of Trfel for reversing NocturneMage read Explanation of the mafia motivation for Half the Sky lynching kushm4sta instead of LightningStrike Association between Fidei86 and Half the Sky Frustrated about being scumread (when he's under no threat of lynch?), no more scumread on Fidei86 (why???) Trfel is insane or mafia LightningStrike has a bad filter and his End of Day could easily come from scum (unrelated note, NocturneMage is using a ton of meta, often incorrectly applied, and then yelling at people for using meta... will check NocturneMage's meta use from previous town games, if it's not high, then meta suggests he is mafia )LightningStrike made a dumb post Frustrated with LightningStrike's lack of scumreads Thinks that Fidei86 may not be mafia because he posted about associations between Half the Sky and LightningStrike Nonsensical post about LightningStrike (draws conclusions from nowhere, interprets things that he thinks LightningStrike is saying with no reason to do so) Doesn't understand a LightningStrike post Currently has Trfel and Fidei86 as scumreads (other than Half the Sky and LightningStrike) (Fidei86 for association and overall gameplay, Trfel for constant usage of terrible points to case people) Gets mad at LightningStrike for not understanding/accepting his argument about why Half the Sky is mafia (huh???? He's scumreading LightningStrike) More convinced that LightningStrike is mafia Top scum reads Half the Sky, Fidei86, LightningStrike, Trfel, needs to re-examine DoYouHas and Palmar Leaning mafia on Trfel, says that LightningStrike is mafia because of bad filter and associations with Half the Sky Strongly thinks LightningStrike is mafia (says he will lynch LightningStrike after Half the Sky) Scumreads LightningStrike because Half the Sky could motivate him to play, but tons of non-associative reasons too Says LightningStrike's post is bad, says that he wants someone to kill himself (?? LightningStrike is mafia, though??), asks a question to LightningStrike (but LightningStrike is mafia??) On the surface, this seems really bad. But that's "objectively bad", not mafia bad. Lunch, then a look for mafia motivation, and a look at meta. On December 05 2015 07:11 NocturneMage wrote: Here, NocturneMage comes back and starts out describing my (Trfel's) play to everyone else, but then he starts talking to me (Trfel) again. In addition to everything else (like me being scum enough that he talks to me condescendingly, but still explaining to me why I'm scum), he's trying to adjust his play based on what his scum read (me) is saying.deadline is tomorrow at 23 GMT. back to catching up. also love how scum Trfel is taking my argument out of context in post 1287, the coaching very likely would have existed through the end of cycle day 1, HTS is capable of giving advice beyond her participation (as in general coaching and/or motivation a good example is the whole whisky bullshit, it's just automatic after the first mislynch) and with the exception of LS's list post, his gameplay has still been mafia motivated, not giving reads, not really pushing anyone (except scumming Trfel and then dropping it) and then when I try to discuss HTS, he's like saying the exact same reason I'm voting her and then having her as null, it's basically saying he's not committing to something and I know last he was townreading me, don't recall him saying "NM is town but wrong on HTS" or taking stances that some of us can easily flesh out, aside from that list post. also saying my mafia play is like his in post 1301/1308 is just bad. town should be confident in their reads if they want to push lynches, I mean look at rayn (my exp from newbie 14), he just sauntered about, cursing about probably worse than I have as he tried to push his lynches, you have Shining this game whose tone comes off the same way - not quite as emotional or off-putting, but pretty straightforward, the holy crusade largely comes from me vs Dani, that is more personal than anything and at worst should not be alignment indicative, if you meant my intro I already explained that to Rels and it's somewhere in my filter. tldr - comparing me to you in post 1301 is just a poor argument and you're finding bad excuses for scumreads just like you did with my predecessor. resuming from page 25. I also scumread him for focusing on four people all the time and ignoring everyone else. He immediately starts talking about other people (The Shining and disformation). It's the same thing again. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 08:04 NocturneMage wrote: What does this have to do with anything?congratulations on missing the part where I said I'm reading from page 25. if you are trolling me you are doing a great job of it. Two mafia is enough for me for now. I'd just prefer to make sure I'm right on the two. I believe NocturneMage said that Half the Sky might come back tomorrow (presumably European time) but probably not today. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 03 2015 07:43 Half the Sky wrote: I had a moment of doubt that maybe, just maybe Half the Sky is town.I got through LS's Drams filter, he had school/schoolwork in that game too but had way more pointed reads. Shining was spot on. I checked LightningStrike's Day 1 from Battle of the Drams mafia and I did not see the difference described above (compared to this game). On December 03 2015 07:28 The Shining wrote: The Shining also said that LightningStrike's Battle of the Drams Mafia filter had more reads and was more pointed than this game.Drams is the game. And comparing the filters from the two games, there is a lot more reads and content from him in Drams then here over 2 pages. And his questions were much more pointed. Here is his filter. Can I get a fourth opinion? I counted 1 scumread on Day 1 in both filters, just this game he made the read (basically) himself and in that game it was purely sheeped. I didn't look too much at town reads, but I felt it was fairly similar (do note that Battle of the Drams was probably twice as long Day 1 as this game was, thus much more opportunity for reads). The question is, am I right, and if so, how possible is it for town to interpret this filter the other way? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 09:13 disformation wrote: The second quote was after the point where The Shining stopped reading, though. So you can't guarantee that he would have seen it.Uh, was looking at the first 5 pages of his filter... which reads? Like I saw very few town reads and his scum reads where more like "I could lynch one of those three". So not pointed at all... But I found this gem: So he DOES that when he is town... How would you compare LightningStrike's filter (pre-yelling) this game to the Day 1 (and only the Day 1) of his filter last game? And thanks a bunch for reading through that and sharing your thoughts | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
The following is to Rels and disformation. + Show Spoiler + Step 1: I'm town + Show Spoiler + Hi, I'm town. Rels, Remember that first game we played together? The Newbie game? Where I was mafia with WaveofShadow and we dominated? I looked really good for most of that game, and I was scum. The game after that, I didn't play for ~two days, nearly got mislynched a few times I think, and ended up completely throwing the game for town. And the last two town games I've played, I was a lynch candidate throughout (though never seriously a wagon). My point being that for some players (I'd say most), how "good" or "bad" they look (aka thread standing/status) doesn't really show their alignment. In this game, I have been scumread a ton for my read progression at the start of Day 2. My play at this time was bad, because I made night kill analysis that had too many assumptions and was too likely to be wrong. And I changed my reads based on this analysis. However, there is no mafia motivation for doing this and at face value it does not say anything about my alignment. Having just come off of a game as scum, I'm obviously town in this game because I often have trouble playing town after being scum, much less being mafia. That argument aside, my reads are based on completely different things this game than they are as scum. It's easy for me to look through a filter and call the person scum because of it, it's a lot harder to go through and analyze the mafia motivation and the ways that they could be town. I realize that this is self-meta and I am aware of it, but two things. First, I don't think it's something I can effectively replicate as mafia (though I've never tried). Second, it's extremely town motivated; you can evaluate my read progression for yourself, I think it's obvious that I am putting critical thought into the game and trying to consider things from every angle. Other than the aforementioned night kill analysis, I think that my play has been fairly solid. I haven't really been scumread for anything other than the night kill analysis (and my read changes caused by it) and "playing to my scum meta", both arguments I have dismissed. Step 2: I think that too many people are mafia + Show Spoiler + I think that DoYouHas could maybe be mafia, his activity has seemed really low, however the case on Half the Sky (assuming for the moment that Half the Sky is scum) feels genuine. I don't have as much problem with the "I got nothing on Half the Sky" then "here's why Half the Sky is mafia" because his biggest point came after the first thing was said, but I need to check and see. I'm assuming that you are town because I am. I haven't looked at Fidei86 yet, but his activity has been really high lately. I've heard people use meta to say that high activity makes him 100% town, however that's not too reliable and I should look. I think that Half the Sky is mafia. I think that LightningStrike is town for a few reasons, but there's a small chance he could be mafia. I think that The Shining is maybe town, but I haven't looked at him in a while. His play seemed very different after everyone stopped pushing him, I haven't really felt his thread presence much (though I could easily be wrong on both of these points). I liked his townread of me, but given that everyone else thinks the opposite this might actually suggest that he is mafia. And finally, I have no clue how he concluded that LightningStrike is scum in this game due to comparison with his Drams mafia filter. I guess disformation is probably town, but he could be mafia. However, I'm assuming that he is town. I think that NocturneMage is sort of mafia. I think that Fecalfeast is sort of town, but he could be mafia. I think that Palmar may be mafia. Basically, that's seven people I think may be mafia with a reasonable enough chance (and that's not including my assumption that you two are town). Which is way too many. It is probably safe imo to consider Fecalfeast as town, leaving six people: Fidei86 (just because I haven't looked at him), Half the Sky, The Shining, NocturneMage, DoYouHas, and Palmar. Which still feels like a lot, given that I'm not completely sold on everyone else. This makes it really hard for me to be confident in my reads because I'm suspicious of so many people? It makes me feel like I'm doing something wrong, like I'm stretching on my reasons to scumread people. I need some help/advice here? Step 3: I think that NocturneMage is mafia. I'm either right about this with great reasons, or I'm wrong, all my reasons are garbage, and NocturneMage is the most obvious town in the game. There's nothing in between, and this annoys me. + Show Spoiler + First of all, NocturneMage has been really really good at making himself look good and making me look really really bad. I don't know if this is indicative of him being town or mafia, but I need to say this first. I feel that I've raised several good points against NocturneMage, and he's really good at seemingly dismissing them (without actually dismissing them) in a way that makes me look really bad (objectively bad, not necessarily alignment indicative, usually). He's able to do this because I've been saying way too much, and I haven't been focusing on the important things. Therefore, he's able to make huge arguments over things that don't matter, and ignore the important points. Or manipulate the argument into one that can't be resolved for either side. I'll probably take another try at explaining my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage soon, but making concise arguments that can't be argued into an argument that you can't prove (to everyone, not just yourself) are difficult for me. Raising a ton of points instead of a few key ones is a really horrible habit of mine. Basically, two questions. 1. Do my arguments for scumreading NocturneMage make any sense? Or am I completely on another planet? If the latter, then I'm probably just very wrong and a re-explanation doesn't change this. 2. Is NocturneMage obviously town for other reasons (namely, activity and thread presence) that no other argument could significantly change this? I personally don't think so, but I realize that I am biased. Note that I still feel that my case against MoosyDoosy earlier was extremely strong, perhaps not a 99.9% read but an 80% read or so (MoosyDoosy's post-deadline posts don't fit with my mafia mindset for him, I can't ignore this). However, since Damdred didn't think so, and Damdred's a really good player, I have more doubt about that. Last time I was town, I made what I thought was a really solid case and Damdred completely disagreed and I was right, but Damdred could very well be right this time. What influence, if any, do you think MoosyDoosy's play has on determining NocturneMage's alignment? Step 4: Other people + Show Spoiler + What about the other players in the game? Unfortunately I'm busy and don't have time to go over everyone myself, but I'm mostly looking at Fidei86, The Shining, DoYouHas, and Palmar (excluding Half the Sky because she's very likely mafia, and NocturneMage because he was discussed earlier). Do you feel that any of them can be put out of the "suspicious" range for now, and why? Do any of them deserve more attention? For the record, I'm spoilering this for only you two because no one else has shown willingness to work with me. Except for Fecalfeast, who so far has been too lazy to do much real work, so he doesn't count for this. It doesn't help town if I put out a ton of text about reads that I'm not sure about when no one else cares to talk about it with me. If there are any statements that you disagree with here, please explain. I'm very wrong, very often. Same if you want something to be elaborated on. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 05 2015 10:14 disformation wrote: Oof, didn't realize that. It's not urgent, pretty sure Half the Sky is getting lynched today anyway, and I'd be pretty darn happy if scum shoots me in the night.okay? Can I be a planar dragon, too? I've always wanted to be a planar dragon! Well, that post will take a while to properly read and write an answer to. Will take a shower, get myself something to drink and try to write something up before I fall asleep (it is already 2 am here). Though I guess scum might shoot you in the night, which would make me really sad On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote: Can I take this one, or did you want disformation to answer?can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two. although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? | ||
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Trfel
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On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote: I'm clearly not playing this game right because I actually really, really like what disformation says here. But I didn't care that much when he first said it can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two. although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? Basically, DoYouHas (in the middle of Day 1 ish) stated that he was going to take a look at the people in the "middle" (because he felt that the most active/vocal people were town). Fair enough. He looked at Fidei86, Half the Sky, LightningStrike, and disformation, and didn't get anything out of it. I'm not sure if this means he didn't get any scumreads out of this or if he didn't get any reads at all from this, if I can catch DoYouHas sometime I'd like to ask this. From this, two things happened. First, he came up with a townread on disformation (because he was sheeping the wagon of his townreads, and mentioned disformation). Second, he got a scumread and case on Half the Sky Night 1, despite not getting much scummy (presumably) from her filter earlier. | ||
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Trfel
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On December 05 2015 10:55 Fecalfeast wrote: I'm fairly suspicious of DoYouHas. I'm not really sure what implications a Half the Sky scum flip would have on DoYouHas.Hm, I guess this makes sense. Maybe I need to look more closely but let's assume there's no shenanigans tomorrow and HTS flips red. What does that make you think of DYH? Do you have any thoughts about NocturneMage or anyone else that you want to talk about? | ||
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Trfel
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On December 05 2015 11:07 Fecalfeast wrote: By "pointed", what do you mean?DYH brought up HTS as possibler scum before NM and NM referenced DYH in his post calling HTS scummy. I think NM's entrance set a bit of a scummy tone initially but his recent postings have been pointed and he seems to be following a logical thought progression. He's obviously very confident in his HTS read which is why I'm sheeped all over that. I think NM is towny though I'm pretty allergic to deep reading right now. also he has 5 pages after replacing in night 1, is NM known to be a high effort scum? NocturneMage isn't known to be high effort as mafia, but that is off of only one game. My first mafia game was terrible and my second mafia game was somewhat high effort and good. | ||
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Trfel
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On December 05 2015 11:16 Fecalfeast wrote: Ah, I was thinking that it meant that there's a direction to the posting. Which I've felt has been completely lacking.there is a point to the things he says rather than posting for the sake of posting. I'll admit I'm using that word without fully knowing what it means and basing it off the context that others have used it in He started off (nearly) entirely focused on four people, then transitioned to (nearly) entirely focusing on everyone else. Nearly entirely probably isn't proper grammar, but you get my point. I don't think it's that hard to avoid the appearance of "posting for the sake of posting" as mafia? At all? Appearing to be trying to solve the game, though, is much harder (and very different). | ||
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Trfel
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I'd argue that my play has not been that bad thus far, as judged by both playstyle and read accuracy, as I've done a lot of good/correct things despite two errors (Damdred read and night kill analysis). I believe it was stated once that top level mafia players should try for 60% read accuracy on scumreads and 90% read accuracy on townreads, which caused a huge argument where almost everyone said that those numbers weren't possible for even the best players. I remember keeping track of my scumread percentage earlier in my mafia "career", and stopped once it dipped significantly below the RNG percentage . But either way, this game I've been wrong on one scumread, at face value that is not alignment indicative, because even the best players aren't always right.I do need to take a look at the bigger picture, but I haven't had time to do so yet. I hate looking at people at a glance, I'd much rather look at one person in detail than ten on the surface, so I was hoping to get some direction (and I got it, I will look at DoYouHas tonight, though that shouldn't take too long I hope). Thanks for explaining your NocturneMage read. If this is similar to what most other people are thinking, and my guess is that it is, this makes me think that NocturneMage has gotten a lot of townreads for weak reasons and that he really could be mafia. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
A lot of the things that DoYouHas has done this game are fairly good. His reads feel natural and town motivated, and while I don't agree with a lot of his decisions (or think that his conclusions are what he ought to arrive at based on what he says), I don't feel that his conclusions are faked and it feels more like he genuinely just thinks differently than me. Unfortunately, when DoYouHas came back towards End of Day 1, he wasn't very active. He didn't seem to really care to look into lynch candidates or push his lynch at all. While I don't like this, I can still see it coming from town for a variety of reasons, it leaves a horrible taste in my mouth, but I can't lynch DoYouHas for this alone. One interesting thing that I noticed about this is to look at the times where DoYouHas comes to the thread on each day (24 hour day, not mafia day). In the first and third 24 hour day, he arrives 2-3 hours after the deadline. In the second 24 hour day (where the lynch is), he arrives an hour before the deadline. This suggests that he might be busier than normal at this time, and perhaps not in full capacity to read, post, and investigate things. This isn't all that important, but it's an example of a potential hole in the scumread for this reason. DoYouHas didn't mention this, but he does seem to be an extremely slow player, such that an hour may not be enough time for him to do a that much reading and trying to find a lynch target. Looking more carefully at DoYouHas' case on Half the Sky, more than half of the points are directly about or primarily refer to things that happened towards End of Day 1, or after he first went through Half the Sky's filter and got nothing. Also, I sort of asked some questions to DoYouHas earlier that he already answered. And he already answered in exactly the way that I'd expect town to answer. It doesn't make him town, by any means, but he continues to respond to suspicion exactly like I feel that town would. Ignoring associations with Half the Sky for now (and will continue do so until after the lynch, or perhaps baby seals), DoYouHas still seems like a town lean. His play is not scummy, wording issues aren't scummy. His play makes sense and shows some critical thinking. The biggest issue with his play is activity. While he was more active in previous games, two things. First, those games were a long time ago, it's very possible that either his schedule or play has changed since then. Second, games were a bit shorter then and the playstyle was different. I think that it is safest to primarily judge his play based on what he's done in this game, and I don't feel comfortable lynching him at all. Probably a town lean, though the lower activity makes this difficult, but I think I go with my instinct for now (that DoYouHas is town). | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
But there were a few more things I meant to say. I know, I talk way too much.When someone is scumread by basically everyone, and you can see them trying to solve the game and critically thinking (even if not as you would expect, but in their own way), from my experience, they are generally town. Note the "in their own way" part, this one is huge. Not everyone plays the game in the same way. The current expectations for "good town play" at TL Mafia aren't agreed upon at all, and even if they were, you'd have a bunch of players wouldn't/couldn't follow them as town. If a player is doing something useless, but if it seems like they actually think it's important, then that suggests that they actually care about helping town. Even if what they're doing is actually useless. This applies to both LightningStrike and DoYouHas. Their play is different from that of everyone else in this game (and different from each other), but at some point they were both scumread by basically everyone, and they've both seemed to be trying to solve the game, in their own way (however good/bad you think that may be, which is a matter of opinion). From past experience with LightningStrike, he is one of the players that I have by far the most trouble reading. With LightningStrike, I have to largely abandon my normal reading methods (which I apply to basically everyone else) and use special methods just for him. This is mostly based on how interested/invested he seems in the game, and a series of really stupid tells that I like to think are somewhat accurate. From this game, his jokes and general posting seems to show a level of investment in the game, and it does seem like he's working things through and solving the game. While I don't agree with many of his reads, I can see how he might arrive at those conclusions. The fact that the lynch switched to him so easily on Day 1 is one indicator that he is town. And no, this isn't an associative read; it's extremely likely that the mafia team would have tried to resist LightningStrike's lynch a bit, which wasn't seen. Second, that deadline post. No, it isn't 100%, but it's still a good reason that points towards him being town. Third, the way his activity has increased since then and his play has improved is very towny. Imagine for a moment that you are mafia, and you are struggling to get townread. And you nearly get lynched Day 1. You get really angry and spam caps lock all over the thread, but it doesn't do much and you're still suspected. Finally, as people start to switch wagons off of you right before the deadline, you get inspiration! And you post that you are VT as if you thought that you died. And it works brilliantly! You avoid the lynch, and everyone (most importantly the person who led your lynch) is convinced that you are town. You keep on playing, and things are going well. However, despite your best efforts, soon people start scumreading you again. More and more, until nearly every person in the thread is scumreading you again. This would be extremely demotivating, you just made the play of your life and it didn't matter at all. But LightningStrike's effort level has continued to go up. Two tells that suggest that LightningStrike is town and show his effort level going up are when he goes out of his way to provide links to past games for meta reasons, and when he provides a bunch of links to games where he played as different alignments to show his meta. He does these things much more often as town than as mafia (does he do them as mafia at all, I'm not sure). I didn't see these tells that much on Day 1, but since then, the frequency has increased. Okay, so that was way longer than I had expected, but the point is that I'm fairly confident that LightningStrike is town. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I believe that you are moderately suspicious about Palmar, but I checked your filter again and I didn't see anything referencing your Palmar read recently. Can you please clarify? I think that your case on DoYouHas does not show that he is mafia at all. I didn't think that you had any updated reasons, but I might have missed them. I've posted my thoughts about DoYouHas, based on your last post I'm assuming you still think he is mafia, why? I'm going to go to bed now, I'll see your response in the morning. Unless I can't sleep, then I guess I'll be playing mafia straight to the lynch... ugh. | ||
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Trfel
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On December 05 2015 18:36 Rels wrote: I agree about the apathy towards the lynch, however I think that this is the only valid suspicion of him. And I don't think that it's strong enough to lynch him alone.Palmar hasn't done anything to make me change my read. I obviously don't agree with your take on my case. I think in particular, his total apathy towards the lynch is scum indicative. | ||
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Trfel
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On December 06 2015 07:41 Half the Sky wrote: I'm here, and I'm listening.Sigh. The things I want to say to Alex are unprintable here and Blazinghand is running this show. Figures. Alright, hold on. And I'm sad/frustrated beyond belief, but oh well. I have a million questions for you, but there is no time. Why did you decide that LightningStrike's Drams mafia filter was different from his filter this game? I didn't see this at all, neither did disformation. In the eight minutes between the deadline and you deciding that you didn't want to lynch LightningStrike, you didn't actually discuss the counterwagon options. What were you doing during this time? | ||
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Trfel
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On December 06 2015 07:53 Half the Sky wrote: I know that feeling all too well XDWith respect to this game, no, life is another matter. | ||
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On December 06 2015 07:56 LightningStrike wrote: Oh, LightningStrike....So does that make Alex town or scum and why? I mean, look at where she's voting XD + Show Spoiler + It makes NocturneMage scum and bussing, but whatever, we can talk about that later. | ||
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Trfel
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On December 06 2015 07:58 LightningStrike wrote: Definitely.Also I hope you get a full recovery on your health Dani. Doesn't seem like anything is capable of holding you down, though. | ||
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The reason I wanted to wait is to see what Half the Sky did when she came back to the thread. Not what she did, but how much effort she put in. If the lynch was led by non-mafia, Half the Sky would be more likely to put in a ton of effort to try and fight it. If the lynch was led by mafia, Half the Sky would be more likely to avoid fighting it, since it's inevitable. To me, Half the Sky's effort appeared to be an attempt to make it look like the bus wasn't planned and that she was sort of trying to fight it, but that seems that it wasn't the case. Half the Sky's End of Day play looked more like she was playing for completeness instead of trying to survive. Half the Sky, for future reference, when you come back to the thread like that you aren't supposed to answer questions. You're getting lynched there no matter what, don't answer questions and give last reads. A list post, or something. There wasn't really any doubt about your alignment, but just so you know for the future. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Unfortunately, I don't think it can buy is a mislynch, but in this game a no-lynch would still be really good. Assuming we're allowed to no lynch. | ||
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On December 06 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote: scumon mobile as if there were ever any doubt. honestly anything HTS did day 2 is basically WIFOM, so whatever drivel she had the last 30 minutes really doesn't mean dick all. Well except her update outside the game of course. <3 LS, of course she would post Talisker like that. she loves Talisker. she will drink that and/or Glenfiddich when she rolls mafia. I don't know what the baby seal is for though. anyways, my personal motivation in finding the last two mafia though is to make sure they don't keep drinking whisky via mislynches, because she would have asked them to do that. why? because it's HTS. I have too many scumleans/reads so I know I have a bit to sort out when I return. probably going to proceed in terms of what teams make sense with hts and some additional filter checks. | ||
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On December 06 2015 09:15 The Shining wrote: There's not much that's different now. I think that Half the Sky's play suggests that NocturneMage is mafia, however that was something I probably shouldn't have said because it's not really provable. You can draw your own conclusion if you want, or just ignore it.Pretty much little to no discussion. Or going from town to "sheeping NM". Lots of reading to be done. I remember FF explaining more than once his reasoning to sheep NM. Over explanation? Then there's that lone disfo vote...hm. Also Trfel, what makes NM more likely scum than town now that HtS flipped? Her vote was spooky spooky wifom but scum has voted me before in games that I was town but under suspicion. LightningStrike, sorry I didn't answer your question earlier, but I had answered it a few posts previously and I was saving my 4k post for the very special reason of calling NocturneMage mafia. I was already playing with Half the Sky assumed as mafia, so my reads aren't affected by the flip in itself, it's the way that Half the Sky played that might have an affect on my reads, but that's probably an argument I will need to drop. | ||
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On December 06 2015 09:18 NocturneMage wrote: First, I counted the remaining mislynches incorrectly. I thought that we had two mislynches to MYLO, at which point no lynching would be good. Second, I didn't mean to no lynch first.trfel - I looked at original op town are allowed to no lynch. but this I don't understand what is the purpose of no lynching? we have three mislynches left? 4th game on tl here, so is there some strategy aspect I am missing???? | ||
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On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote: Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it.Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind. In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. But..... On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote: Bold emphasis mine.shining re: your post well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left. I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1. He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact. then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. | ||
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On December 06 2015 10:19 The Shining wrote: This is one reason, I have probably at least 50 reasons of about this strength. Unfortunately, this isn't terribly strong, because talking to a scumread like they're town is something that town does too. However, this is the absolute biggest example of this that I have ever seen, because of the hard transition and he's talking about the same two people. Don't worry, I'll show why NocturneMage is scum at some point. And the tone, asking LightningStrike to trust him... even if talking to a scumread like they're town isn't the best tell, this can't be ignored.This is actually pretty good but I'm not sure it makes NM scum here. You're basically saying he's scumming LS but then talking to him about HtS like he's town, right? Anyway, I looked through Half the Sky's filter. The way that Half the Sky switched to vote for LightningStrike makes it look like LightningStrike is town. Half the Sky put a lot of effort into trying to figure out LightningStrike's alignment, and eventually came to a null or a town lean or something like that (I forget, for the purposes of this it doesn't matter much). After all that, once the lynch started going to LightningStrike, she switched her vote really easily with the only reason presented being this: On December 03 2015 06:54 Half the Sky wrote: Okay, so I went back and found her last LightningStrike read before this.This is the question I want to ask folks - why is he null reading Trfel based on the bolded? Half the Sky wrote:The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Half the Sky's only reason presented to scumread LightningStrike after this was extremely flawed. Even despite this, the change on the LightningStrike read is really large for something that small (if she thought it was large enough to change this read, she would have been more suspicious of it when asking the question).Furthermore, Half the Sky's play around End of Day doesn't have much direction. I don't feel like she really cared if LightningStrike or kushm4sta were lynched (or she would have had more direction to her play, or actually pushed kushm4sta once finally deciding that she didn't want to lynch LightningStrike, 8 minutes before the deadline). This association suggests really, really strongly that Half the Sky is town, contrary to what NocturneMage has stated about the association. | ||
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On December 06 2015 10:29 The Shining wrote: Okay, I'm breaking my own hard rule Also this is something for the next day phase in case I get shot tonight. There are 3 possible setups since Boxer flipped. Boxer vet, boxer Cop, boxer Vig. There was no Vig shot n1 so unless Vig shoots tonight I'm pretty confident in saying we don't have a Vig and the setup is one of Cop/Boxer and vet/boxer. Obviously neither should claim in the night phase but it might be a good idea if we have a vet to claim next day phase and narrow down the lynch pool, IF YOURE UNDER SUSPICION. The RB flipped so the vet can't be NKd next night phase and it will help with poe after the NK. Obviously if you're shot tonight, you should also instantly claim. If it is the 1 shot Cop setup, then don't say a damn thing unless you get a red check. If you get a green check, you should also claim it ONLY if they or you are in danger of being lynched, as the only setup we could have with GF is Cop/Vig(not possible because boxer flipped) and vet/boxer, in which case there is no Cop. So the cop check has a 100% accuracy. I don't think that the veteran should claim unless they're "reasonably" suspected. "Reasonably" defined at the end of this post. I actually think that if it's a 1-shot cop with a green check, they should claim it at the start of the next day (assuming both are alive). That's huge, and assuming that the cop was good with their check, the check should be on a "reasonably" suspected person. "Reasonably" meaning as determined by the power role themself. Basically, if you are the power role, you should make our own decision because you're the only one who knows the situation exactly. You know how scumread you are, you can determine if the value of your claim being hidden is worth however much suspicion/time people spend trying to figure out your alignment. If you're the cop with a check, you know exactly how useful the check is. Anyway, I don't care to argue this, but let the power roles play their own role ^^ On December 06 2015 10:35 NocturneMage wrote: It's when two people are thinking really similarly to each other, presumably either over several similar thoughts or both thinking the same thing at the same time. Hopefully that's close enough.I keep getting drawn back to this game, it is too addictive. also last question, what on earth is a mindmeld? On December 06 2015 10:34 NocturneMage wrote: I don't understand this explanation, because you're giving advice to LightningStrike in that post? Are you scumreading LightningStrike, or not?no that wifom can be interpreted in different ways (1) she could be talkign to a scum buddy - they both are wifoming (2) she could be trying to wifom town ls (3) other people reading that could be wifomed by what hts is saying to town/scum ls. Also, NocturneMage, any comments on the association with Half the Sky that I mentioned? | ||
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On December 06 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote: If LightningStrike is mafia, as you think, then why did Half the Sky vote for him in the first place, if she was only planning on jumping off, as you say?and trfel we can agree to disagree here. hts is going to take out the person scumreading her - that was kush. she was not going to sit on LS regardless because if LS is town, there was an expectation that she should have known LS was town based on meta (if he is town) she looks really bad, and if LS is mafia which he likely is, she needed to get off him and found a meta reason to get off him and once she saw that every one was rushing to kush, she was definitely going to get rid of kush, I guarantee you the same thing would have happened had dyh gotten shennanied, or she would have started that shennanie herself. hts was poor because of agenda. this is meta, I realise you cannot trust it or may be hesistant to trust it. had she not had a real read on either, she would have gone for the policy lynch, the whole thing points to trying to avoid culpability (yes now I know that is a real word) and I was trying to make that argument all of d2 as I was pushing her. Also, can you please address the previous question about why you were giving advice to your scumread, LightningStrike? | ||
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On December 06 2015 10:49 The Shining wrote: No, I'm pretty sure this shows that Half the Sky is town.50 reasons is a lot lol. I do have NM in my town pile, though, so I'm willing to listen to these 50 reasons when you get around to them post-HtS flip. I'm just having a hard time accepting that NM comes into this game immediately bussing his RB, especially if we have a vet. Of course if we don't, that makes it a bit more believable. But I've also spoken to scumreads as if they're town(imperfect knowledge and realizing my read might be wrong) which is why I asked for more. I'm also assuming at the end of this, you meant to say it implies LS is town, not HtS, right? Thanks XD It's easy for me to go through and give 50 reasons to be suspicious of NocturneMage, but I have to figure out how to present it in a readable way and make sure that it's right first. And that will take a while. | ||
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On December 06 2015 10:52 NocturneMage wrote: You're absolutely right, this makes sense.Cred. She won't be afraid to bus d1 if she decided she might want to stay on and there was absolutely no better choice that could have made her look better/worse. She knows how to plan ahead as mafia and think through the long game and this is already proven in the two scumgames where she has endgamed. second question, I wasn't, it was a general response. But you said here: NocturneMage wrote: Please explain?if LS is mafia which he likely is, she needed to get off him and found a meta reason to get off him | ||
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On December 06 2015 10:55 NocturneMage wrote: You didn't really answer my question, but fair enough, I'll stop pressing.I feel I answered 1506 with 1507. wtf. is there some random esp bullshit going on across the atlantic here? Was hoping you'd make a huge slip and confirm yourself as mafia, but it seems you're too good for that Was worth a try, though. @The Shining, I was primarily trying to get information from NocturneMage, not scumread him for that (though it does make me a bit more confident in my suspicion).And yes, my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage are mostly small reasons. And small reasons aren't that good, even if there are a lot of them. I have a few big reasons that I think are good, I have to go through and see how good those reasons are and how many there are. Keeping them secret for now because if I say them, it might affect NocturneMage's play. | ||
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On December 06 2015 11:01 NocturneMage wrote: No, I get that, and I think your other reasons are also awful XD But based on this post:like I have reasons OTHER than that voting situation to believe LS is mafia, you keep forgetting this. the whole back and forth d2. it's not just the damned voting. I must be really terrible at explaining things....well at least on mobile anyways. On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote: It seems that you tried to look at LightningStrike's play through a town lens and were unable to really do so because of the association with Half the Sky. Which I took to mean that the association with Half the Sky is the strongest point, and that you couldn't truly finish looking at the rest of his play through the town lens because of this.shining re: your post well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left. I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1. He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact. then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. | ||
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On December 06 2015 11:05 The Shining wrote: Oh, shut up.Well assuming we both survive the night, I'm open to reading a full case next day phase. It's probably better that you don't case someone in the night again though...lol...your track record with that isn't stellar =P I don't believe in silent nights, it's better to continue searching for scum and not delay. I'm pretty happy if scum shoot me anyway, seeing as so many people are suspicious of me, so if my case makes them kill me then I'll happily case away. | ||
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On December 06 2015 11:10 The Shining wrote: Wait, so you're saying that your strongest townreads are doing something that you don't think that scum would do.I'm sad though because I feel like my strongest townreads are here and talking in thread putting thoughts out through the night phase. Like I'm used to scum being weary of being in thread during night phase due to wifom and slipping before NKs and blue actions or w.e. Why does this make you sad? | ||
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On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote: I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other?Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion. Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to? I'm referring to nearly everyone. DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people. | ||
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On December 06 2015 12:21 The Shining wrote: Hm....The lack of interference makes it feels town v town. When town is going against another town, like say Palmar and I D1, if both participants are town, scum has no motivation to really weigh in or break it up. Instead they can sit around and see who comes off looking worse from the interaction and choose to try and get them lynched. In this case, you've been suspecting NM for the longest. You cased him and the MD slot before, you still hold suspicion, he's going back at you and responding to you in a way that feels towny to me and trying to explain his thought processes. Scum won't get involved until or unless another town, like myself for instance, weighs in on it and picks a side. Then scum tries to pick that side as well and bury the other. It's not great analysis but I've used it to benefit my reads before, so I know it can be handy when applied hand in hand with logical reads. I don't think I agree you, but I'd prefer not to agree to disagree just yet, because I'm not good at this stuff. Let's imagine for a moment that you know that I'm town for sure, and you know that NocturneMage is mafia for sure. Why is mafia super interested in burying me and defending NocturneMage right now, when the lynch was on Half the Sky? I would expect mafia to also be interested in keeping their options open, such that if NocturneMage looks good they can bury me tomorrow, when there's a lynch that isn't Half the Sky, or they can bus if it's necessary. So I'd expect mafia to take stances, but not really push the stances that much. And most everyone has taken stances on the issue, most townreading NocturneMage and scumreading me. So I don't agree with your analysis? | ||
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On December 06 2015 12:28 Trfel wrote: Heading out for the evening (at least, what's left of it), but to elaborate a bit... (when I say that, I'm guessing everyone groans?)Hm.... I don't think I agree you, but I'd prefer not to agree to disagree just yet, because I'm not good at this stuff. Let's imagine for a moment that you know that I'm town for sure, and you know that NocturneMage is mafia for sure. Why is mafia super interested in burying me and defending NocturneMage right now, when the lynch was on Half the Sky? I would expect mafia to also be interested in keeping their options open, such that if NocturneMage looks good they can bury me tomorrow, when there's a lynch that isn't Half the Sky, or they can bus if it's necessary. So I'd expect mafia to take stances, but not really push the stances that much. And most everyone has taken stances on the issue, most townreading NocturneMage and scumreading me. So I don't agree with your analysis? I don't feel the need to try and get a huge scumread on NocturneMage and convince everyone just yet, because there's enough time to the deadline. I do think I'll try to get a case out before End of Night, but I don't think it's urgent yet. I would prefer to wait for now, to gather information and keep checking things to see if my reads are correct. Note to self, I'm saving something which I think is very interesting but this isn't the time to share it. I don't see why the mafia team would feel any more urgency than I do to make a move. Assuming that this is town vs mafia (and thus NocturneMage is mafia), mafia is already a bit on top, so the only time they'd need to move would be in reaction to me. And I haven't really done that much, yet. | ||
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I've been struggling with this ever since I finished the case, but in the end I do think that NocturneMage is mafia. This case is very poorly written and badly formatted (it's after 5 am, I'm really, really tired), but I hope it sort of gets the point across. These are basically the biggest reasons why I'm scumreading NocturneMage. 1. Talking to scumreads like they are town/lecturing scumreads on proper town play (this read can be good when applied correctly, though applying it correctly is harder. It's the amount and circumstances where NocturneMage does this that makes it important) 2. Reads change without explanation and without reason (even some of the more important reads), sort of feels like NocturneMage is finding reasons to be suspicious of people instead of trying to solve the game 3. Mindset changes several times throughout the game, and it seems that the best explanation is that NocturneMage is mafia (the most recent/obvious example of this is that NocturneMage spent a large amount of effort getting people to lynch Half the Sky and seemed really excited about it, but then didn't care when she flipped mafia) I'm not completely sure about this read. The case is primarily a ton of small reasons instead of a few really good ones, and from past experience I'm not so accurate when I scumread people for a ton of small reasons. But looking at NocturneMage's last town game, it feels like he is mafia here because last game, his play was really good and I don't notice the same things. Note that the small reasons are still mafia indicative reasons, it's just that there are more holes that mean that they could come from town more easily than better reasons. | ||
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I don't want to lynch DoYouHas. I think I want to lynch NocturneMage, but no one else seems to want to. To be honest, I don't think that I like any of the current wagons, so I'll vote for NocturneMage. | ||
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The way he bounces from target to target and is scumreading all of them doesn't make me think that he actually cares about the lynch. | ||
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I'm going to assume that even if I don't know why, the most active/vocal posters are town and mostly wrong. And the mafia are casually standing by the side, watching and sometimes supporting, but letting others lead. I think that this points at Fecalfeast. Thoughts? | ||
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On December 09 2015 07:20 NocturneMage wrote: But LightningStrike is town for other reasons. At least, I think...The same thing applies to LS but he's just posting just to post and the case on Fidei was beyond awful. I need to re-read his filter last game, can I do that in 40 minutes plus all this other shit.... Wait, he actually made a case? 10 page filter and a case? No way he is mafia. | ||
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I feel that maybe he was townread too early for not doing anything, so he decided to continue to not do anything because it works. | ||
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On December 09 2015 07:37 Fecalfeast wrote: I thought you prided yourself in being an unexpectedly hard mislynch?Shenanigans onto fecalfeast then? I couldn't care less about this game right now. As I recall from last game, "it's encouraging that this is all the scummer has to push on". | ||
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On December 09 2015 07:41 disformation wrote: If NocturneMage is mafia, I can't convince everyone to vote for him. I can't even entirely convince myself.Dunno what to make of Trfel. Like D2 everyone is scum. Now everyone is town. Though, the thing with the active ppl being town and mafia doing jack could be true. Seen that happen before. And with everyone's reads all over the place mafia could very well be hiding under a rock or something. Thus, there's nothing I can do, so I need to assume that NocturneMage is town, for now at least. I think that with this in mind, the assumption that makes the most sense is that the most influential and active players are all town. Looking through everyone's filter, I found a reason that I'm hesitant to lynch all of them, except for Fecalfeast. Terrible reasoning? Yes. The best I have? Also yes. I'm over 10 pages behind and have no clue what's happening, but most people seem to be doing things that I like and getting involved... except for Fecalfeast. | ||
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On December 09 2015 07:43 Fecalfeast wrote: Wait, but you just caught up.... So why are you now wanting to die?I just spent 2 full days playing fallout and tinkering with my PC. I just caught up on the entire day phase now. If I die I don't have to read and mafia is never going t shoot me I really think that Fecalfeast is the best lynch. | ||
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Or maybe I'm just completely wrong about it. Oh well. Lynch Fecalfeast. | ||
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GG Fecalfeast XD | ||
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I call that good guessing haha Anyway, the 5 minutes I spent playing this game today might cost me quite a bit on my homework.... But that was fun XD | ||
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Or maybe I won't, I seem to be better that way ^^ | ||
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I may not be that good at mafia, but sometimes, experience plays a huge role XD Anyway, off for the night. And Rels, if you're town..... tsk tsk. You should know better. Well, okay, if you're scum, you should know better too! (no, that's not a scumread, that's teasing....) | ||
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First of all, I'm sorry. I'd rather not get into exactly why I played like I did, but I really am sorry. My mafia play has way too many problems, and the way my play was towards you and Damdred is definitely one of the larger ones. I saw something that made me think you were town, I think maybe it was Fecalfeast being willing to lynch you based on my case, while also saying why the case was wrong on several points. It seems like this could be the way that scum treats scum, to set up for a bus while sort of fighting against it, but I feel like it's much more likely that this is scum towards town, saying "here's an easy mislynch" but also setting up an "I told you so" afterwards. In addition to the overall picture showing a ridiculous determination to solve the game, which I have a bad habit of ignoring. Nine times out of ten, the players who are trying really hard and putting in tons of effort really are town, no matter what stupid ideas you come up with that say otherwise. Anyway, I'd be lying if I said I was completely sure you were town, I'm not really sure of much of anything at this point. But I am sorry, and hopefully we can work together a little more effectively in the future if need be. | ||
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On December 09 2015 12:47 The Shining wrote: I'm confirmed town, I can do what I want Can you do what I asked earlier of everyone? Who do you think are the next 2 lynches in order to solve/win the game? I thought we had three lynches remaining? + Show Spoiler + Current: Start of Night 3, 7 v 1 Start of D4: 6 v 1 N4: 5 v 1 (one lynch) D5: 4 v 1 N5: 3 v 1 (two lynches) D6: 2 v 1 (lylo, 3 total lynches) To be honest, I found something that made me not want to lynch everyone except for Fecalfeast... So, I have no answer. | ||
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On December 09 2015 13:44 The Shining wrote: Ooohhhh, I'm definitely excited for this! I'm dropping a case at some point tonight. So ya. If I get shot tonight, there's always that. Any clue in how long? IE, should I stay up for it? | ||
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On December 09 2015 13:47 Trfel wrote: Wait... I'm guessing you mean night phase.Ooohhhh, I'm definitely excited for this! Any clue in how long? IE, should I stay up for it? Darn, oh well. Still excited XD | ||
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On December 09 2015 13:59 The Shining wrote: Yeah, I've learned SO much since that Student game. Like, seriously.XD You don't like my cases, though. You let JJB get away once upon a time the first time I made a case like this. DON'T DO IT TO ME AGAIN LOL but nah, I'm trying my best to make it readable. Also, I think like 1-2 Student games ago, I made a similar case like this to catch the final scum, Vonthin, in triple lylo. So when I make cases like these, they're god-tier >_> <_< I'll probably be done in an hour or so, maybe less That game was basically the wake-up call for me, before that I actually thought I was really good at mafia, believe it or not XD I'll see if I'm still awake when you post. No guarantees, though. | ||
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On December 09 2015 14:28 The Shining wrote: If this case is on me I'm going to be so mad ><You and I both, my friend. I'm about 80% done. No worries, you can get to it tomorrow or at some point throughout the day phase. It's guaranteed at least one of us will be alive next day phase lol unless we have a Vig that shoots N3 -____- | ||
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I think I'm going to lynch NocturneMage instead once you get shot | ||
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On December 09 2015 15:04 The Shining wrote: Good luck with that XDThus is life. If I get shot, I'm scumming you in obs >_> + Show Spoiler + Don't tell anyone, but I glanced through your case and I think you saved me the trouble of having to read stuff Though I should take a closer look sometime later | ||
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Based on disformation's response, I feel that he is very likely mafia and the best lynch, and thus I don't intend to read the parts of the game that I missed. On December 09 2015 22:57 NocturneMage wrote: @NocturneMage....I am quite curious. Like I have reasoning to think you are town. But on the Trfel wagon: (1) myself (pretty damned early) (2) flipped mafia FF (who sheeped me an hour after I went to bed) (3) Rels (right at end of cycle) you can double check the timestamps but I am sure I am close to accurate. why are you so sure scum would give themselves away like that with 3 mislynches to go? especially given the timing. for Rels to try and save a scumbuddy with a decent chance of failing, or for FF to sheep me and sit there all cycle doing dick all. you have approx 25 games under your belt to my 3, surely you are more informed on something I'm not Note that I wasn't really paying any attention at End of Day, even for the parts that I technically "read". But do note that as mafia, the first instinct is to defend your teammate by lynching the other person and being as forceful as possible about it. The second instinct is to bus. If you go with the first option, you can ALWAYS wifom it away and say that you were wrong. Assuming for a moment that Rels is mafia... I can see him judging that the chance of succeeding in the mislynch would be well worth the risk of not getting town credit for the bus (note that this isn't getting scumread for being on the other wagon, that's actually minimal, the big loss is not getting town credit for lynching scum). I'm inclined to think that what End of Day really suggests is that the people who were there, and involved, but weren't voting on either wagon are town (if there were any). While this seems scummy on the surface, I simply don't think that scum would ever do this, it's so far removed from the mafia mindset. I don't think that this applies to DoYouHas, however, since he was trying to get a wagon started on disformation with ~5 minutes left in the day, and he seems to take a long time to post, thus I can't be sure that he's capable of adjusting to the situation and changing his vote if he is mafia. I didn't read to see about the other two. | ||
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On December 09 2015 23:21 NocturneMage wrote: 13 player game balance is really simple though? I can explain it in 30 seconds.Fair enough Rels. I realise this is a mostly open setup, but I have a ways to go with setup spec/mechanics. HTS tried to explain to me how to balance 13-player games sometime back and I just told her to stop after 5 minutes because my head was spinning. I'm so bad Anyhow need to afk again, curious to see the full case response disformation. 10 town and 3 mafia, you give the town 1.5-2 power roles and you give the mafia 1.5-2 power roles. Godfather and veteran are half power roles. Easy! I mean, there's a bit that's more complex, but that's mostly enough ^^ I protest my vote switch to Fecalfeast being called a "yolo move", though. It may have been a guess, but it was a very educated guess! Also, what the heck? Why is disformation saying that Onegu's filter is NAI and impossible to get a read from, after questioning it earlier? That wasn't even a point in The Shining's case, unless I badly misread it? On December 10 2015 00:24 LightningStrike wrote: I thought this was a TL Starcraft phrase? Evidently it carried to the LoL site also?Sorry I went full Romanian Never go full Romanian guys.On December 10 2015 00:26 disformation wrote: Disformation is making me laugh so much XDI think the part with onegus filter should have said, open AT own risk and I am not accountable FOR any injuries. english hard language. I'll probably be semi around today, trying to get a bit of stuff done home office style, this game has eaten a fair share of my time and I am a bit behind on a few things. If you have further questions just shoot, cause mafia won't. And I think that it makes him even more mafia. I get the impression that he's focused on having fun here, primarily, instead of trying to lynch mafia, which while this is a great approach and should be the approach that everyone has all the time, isn't something I expected to see from disformation. Could be very wrong on this, though, but I don't care to find out. On December 10 2015 02:08 LightningStrike wrote: As long as it doesn't involve reading the thread, sure?Tfrel can I ask you a favor please? | ||
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On December 10 2015 02:22 LightningStrike wrote: I think that it's extremely suspicious that he basically says "I think that some points were misrepresented or overblown", indicating that he thinks that the rest of the points are fine. This really doesn't feel like something that town would say.I wanted you to read disformation's response to shining'so case on him :o To say much more than that, I'd need to actually read the thread and filters to see context, which I'm not going to do because we win anyway | ||
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I almost want to read Day 3 now, but I'm guessing that based on NocturneMage's comments, the fun only began after the lynch. Oh well. | ||
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On December 10 2015 03:05 NocturneMage wrote: Oh hush you, I had next to zero experience back then....In her first game as mafia, her scumteam lynched the goddamn veteran day 1 (how the fuck they pulled that shit off, fuck if I knew) despite him claiming. It was fucking unbelievable. Now I already knew she was mafia by then, so it didn't matter but I saw her pour THREE shots of Glenfiddich that game and she just downed them like that. And I'm just standing there shaking my head. She has to keep her consumption on the low side now as she recovers and eventually trains for the Boston marathon in April but I'm pretty sure she'd have taken at least one shot MAYBE two had she been well enough. There is a reason I go insane hard pushing....her endgaming me means (1) I'll never hear the end of it and (2) Dani goes on full whisky rage drinking through post-game. Don't want to see that happening again, at least in games that I'm in with her. Would she drink if her team won the game, despite her being lynched Day 2? IE, do we still have to win this game? | ||
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On December 10 2015 05:07 disformation wrote: LOL XDThe fuck is my brain doing. Rels is like the only one besides me trying to lynch DYH and on multiple occasions. Don't think they can be a couple. | ||
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On December 10 2015 05:46 NocturneMage wrote: Now I want to go through and do a complete drunken analysis XDIt was after 2100 your time when you made that post. Chances of drunken post? Pretty high But I don't know what people are like when they're drunk Stupid laws... | ||
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Basically, I think that my reads are decent as town, except when I get bogged down by how well I work with people instead of what their alignment is. Which, despite my best efforts, I can't seem to avoid. Thus, I'm better at the game when I'm a bit more disconnected. Not sure how to fix that problem other than to stay a bit disconnected all the time. | ||
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Why are you people trying so hard ^^ | ||
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On December 10 2015 07:40 NocturneMage wrote: I can report this to the police XDAnyhow I don't think I'm voting DYH tomorrow. Meh, I can't conceive it. Not from the voting. *offers Trfel a glass of wine* Also, League is no fun Starcraft or Hearthstone or go home! | ||
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On December 10 2015 07:49 NocturneMage wrote: Oh my....Sorry Trfel didn't realise you weren't old enough. Oh well another glass of wine for me I think it would be a good idea to change the night kill to yourself. This play clearly optimizes your chances of winning. + Show Spoiler + If he's drunk enough, maybe he'll fall for it! XD | ||
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On December 10 2015 07:55 NocturneMage wrote: Wait, was it not an intentional play to prevent KP delivery?OH GOD WHY DID YOU HAVE TO REMIND ME. That wasn't me, but I was on that particular scumteam. How did this even happen!!?!?!?! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Anyway, on the off chance that I die, don't try to get too much from it, cause I have no reads XD | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Particularly The Shining, really nice play throughout the game.Honestly it felt like mafia screwed up on Day 3, I have no idea why I wasn't lynched. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 15 2015 08:03 NocturneMage wrote: No it wouldn't have, just take a really careful look at him in LYLO Agreed, Shining clear MVP. If he was mafia, it would have been gg. Having three lynches like that is so huge, it's almost impossible for the mafia to win, regardless of who the mafia is. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 15 2015 08:10 disformation wrote: Disformation, you can always play scum like I do, it's much more fun!Still don't think I'm gonna be happy when I see my next scum pm. =/ The problem is that you torture town until they realize that you're mafia, but it's fun for you XD And your teammates hate you once you get lynched and lose.... But small issues My play wasn't so good this game, and I'm sorry for that, but other people made up for it. Town play is a team effort, so I'll take it Plus I learned (or relearned, rather...) a few very important lessons. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 15 2015 08:22 NocturneMage wrote: It's way easier to talk the talk than walk the walk, but here we go....Well if anyone has any feedback for me let me know. I mean I know my tone and attitude threw some people off that knew me and I see that the obs qt it was mentioned I was playing a bit emotionally. That part is accurate, partially for in-game and out-of-game reasons. But that aside, any other comments, let me know. I think voting analysis is something I always have trouble deciding what is more likely and I've been told that a really good scum player can "look town" even through votes, but it's hard to weight that versus screwing up without weighing other forms of scumhunting like filters, and whatever. Your reasoning to scumread Rels was really bad. IIRC, you were scumreading him because he said something that you disagreed with, but his interpretation was plausible for town to arrive at. Townies will always disagree about stuff, and so that ends up not being a very good reason. Basically, just be really careful when you're focusing on who's right and who's wrong, and specific reasons for stuff that come down to wording, etc. Of course, doing this would have let me avoid scumreading you and Damdred, so... bleh. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Never lynch someone because "there's no reason not to." That just means that scum is playing well and you need to look harder. DoYouHas never really had any reason to be lynched throughout the game, but he was voted for many, many times. Just because you can't necessarily town read him (for the purpose of this argument) doesn't make him a good lynch, just because he scumread Half the Sky after NocturneMage replaced in doesn't make him mafia. Same with LightningStrike, just because the End of Day VT claim wasn't a 100% indicator of him being town, doesn't mean that he should be lynched because there wasn't much reason to lynch him to begin with. | ||
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