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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On January 06 2021 11:10 Zambrah wrote: Are votes really being counted that fast? Feels insanely fast to me Not outside the realm of possibility if the organization doing the counting is competent.
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On January 06 2021 11:09 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 11:07 Shingi11 wrote:On January 06 2021 11:03 FlaShFTW wrote: Ok back from the dinner break. Let's see what I missed...
Ok Cherokee county, big Republican county, lost 5 points from +40->+35. Stioll not much live vote from the big blue counties. Republicans are running out of votes. Ya if stays this close dems shod have it. We saw how much Biden made up when same day vote was done Biden's big surge was absentee, not same day vote. But the same day vote is still heavily favored to Dems in Atlanta area which is where the majority of votes are left.
Ya I ment that, guess I worded it wrong. Like a lot of the vote that is in should favor Republicans and a lot of this later vote should favor dems
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United States10031 Posts
Fulton had some same day votes come in. Still holding at +50 for Warnock. It's looking like a Dem victory for Warnock for sure, Ossoff still needs to see some good results before we can make some projections.
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On January 06 2021 11:14 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 11:10 Zambrah wrote: Are votes really being counted that fast? Feels insanely fast to me Saw this on the 538 liveblog to explain it
Thats a nice change, glad to see it
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Even if we get 50 Biden is still have to wait tell 2022 to get a lot of the big stuff done. Manchin is not going to be voting for the green new deal after all.
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United States10031 Posts
Once I see the first major blue county get to 95%+ and its even better than November, I'm ready to call this for Warnock. Ossoff is still sketchy but I think he should also hold on based upon what I'm seeing.
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I don't think Democrats are going to hold well in 2022, tbh, anything we get is going to have to come before 2022 imo.
Maybe if they can chain a ton of good shit together they might change that though, god knows I'd love to see stimulus checks, and important legislation for police brutality, student loan forgiveness etc.
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NYT's needle is 75% Warnock, 64% Ossoff. Cohen notes that there's just no real surprises so far.
Also, Trump's team lol :
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On January 06 2021 11:27 Zambrah wrote: I don't think Democrats are going to hold well in 2022, tbh, anything we get is going to have to come before 2022 imo.
Maybe if they can chain a ton of good shit together they might change that though, god knows I'd love to see stimulus checks, and important legislation for police brutality, student loan forgiveness etc.
It is going to be an odd map, it is the first time dems are not having to try and get a bunch of red seats. They are at the very least even and I would say slightly favorable. It is also a mid term though and the party in power normally does not do as well.
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On January 06 2021 11:30 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 11:27 Zambrah wrote: I don't think Democrats are going to hold well in 2022, tbh, anything we get is going to have to come before 2022 imo.
Maybe if they can chain a ton of good shit together they might change that though, god knows I'd love to see stimulus checks, and important legislation for police brutality, student loan forgiveness etc. It is going to be an odd map, it is the first time dems are not having to try and get a bunch of red seats. They are at the very least even and I would say slightly favorable. It is also a mid term though and the party in power normally does not do as well.
Yeah the midterm-power shift alongside the loss of seats during this presidential cycle of all presidential cycles is why Im thinking the Democrats will lose the House.
Possibly to more Qanon nutjobs.
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United States10031 Posts
I'm at 95% sure that Warnock has locked this up. But I won't make the TL decision desk announcement yet until I get couple more of those blue counties in before I call it for him.
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United States10031 Posts
Dave Wasserman has called it for Warnock. I'm just about ready to call it. Just Ossoff left.
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How is Ossoff looking right now?
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Gotta keep that grift coming!
Looks like Warnock is definitely going to beat Biden's margin and Ossoff (likely) will as well. But it doesn't seem like it will be on the back of stupid self-suppression by the GOP, given their overall turnout, but more based on increased turnout in Biden strongholds.
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If both elections to go to the Democratic candidate, it raises some questions on how much of Trump's looming presence or the lack of Trump on the ballot affected the race. Maybe Trump's ramblings and harebrained schemes to hold power was enough to convince potential Biden-Loeffler/Perdue voters to stick with the Democrats, stay home or split a ticket. And I'd also be curious to see if the suburbs and university-educated whites are long-term Democratic holds, or a rent for the 2020-2021 election cycle.
On January 06 2021 11:46 Zambrah wrote: If we see an Ossoff/Warnocke win I think my bet would be people saw the Stimulus Check situation get blocked by McConnell and that was the straw that broke the camel's back. Being able to tell McConnell to fuck off in order to get some much needed financial relief is some real material motivation imo. Can't believe that slipped my mind. A $2000 cheque is a strong motivator, especially now. Perdue and Loeffler were wishy-washy on the topic, while Warnock and Ossoff were pretty firm on it early on.
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If we see an Ossoff/Warnocke win I think my bet would be people saw the Stimulus Check situation get blocked by McConnell and that was the straw that broke the camel's back. Being able to tell McConnell to fuck off in order to get some much needed financial relief is some real material motivation imo.
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United States10031 Posts
On January 06 2021 11:43 Zambrah wrote: How is Ossoff looking right now? Slightly behind his running mate but not far enough where Perdue can reasonably catch up.
TL DECISION DESK UPDATE: We are confident with our projection that Raphael Warnock (D) will win his special election and triumph over Loeffler. Loeffler currently leads by 1 point but Warnock has gained in the majority of counties compared to the November results. Warnock also has a ton of Atlanta vote left that will surely put him over the top.
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On January 06 2021 11:15 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 11:10 Zambrah wrote: Are votes really being counted that fast? Feels insanely fast to me Not outside the realm of possibility if the organization doing the counting is competent.
As a bonus, keep in mind that the vote counting strategies logistically count fastest early in the night. Because each center counts at a fixed rate, and each center has a fixed number of votes, you see the pace slow the more places finish completing their supply and go home. This is also part of why R strongholds, which typically have lower population, seem to count "more quickly."
(purely discussing in-person votes here, of course; pre-counting early votes or not has its own quirks)
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United States10031 Posts
Ok I've seen enough with the Ossoff race too. Dems are gonna sweep tonight.
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Very nice, I do love to be proven wrong!
Seeing the ghoulish likes of Perdue and the soulless automaton of Loeffler lose does my heart good even if I don't find Ossoff to be particularly thrilling.
A lot to expect out of a Democrat controlled House, Senate, and Presidency though, I better see some great stuff!
Im personally hoping for stimulus checks and PR and DC statehood!
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