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On January 06 2021 09:42 FlaShFTW wrote:
Btw this time with the absentee ballots coming in pretty early, they will heavily favor Dems. Once again, those votes are coming in at a 80-20/85-15 pace for Dems early on with Fulton County reporting at +60 for Dems right now.
From a civil unrest perspective, this is a very good thing. I think the powers that be decided this election MUST not be as wild as the presidential election. It can't be that Republicans are ahead for 5 days and then end up losing on the 6th. That would lead to violence because Cletus doesn't understand.
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The percent of votes change very rapidly with each drop of new votes. Margins relative to November definitely look like they favor Dems.
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Are they are counting Absentee ballots along with the day of, or is it one before the other?
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On January 06 2021 09:46 LegalLord wrote:
The percent of votes change very rapidly with each drop of new votes. Margins relative to November definitely look like they favor Dems.
This is what I'm getting from the numbers right now as well. The numbers are fairly in line with what happened in November. It's going to seriously come down to that young people turnout. If that turnout that I mentioned earlier is because they already voted by mail, Dems have this. If that number is reflective of that actual proportion of young voters, Dems should be nervous. Either way, the Dem strategy moving forward really needs to be getting the young people out to vote and pushing hard.
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On January 06 2021 09:48 hiro protagonist wrote:
Are they are counting Absentee ballots along with the day of, or is it one before the other?
Absentees are coming in alongside day-of ballots. All of Fulton County's ballots are from absentee so far.
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Douglas County, western suburb of Atlanta, showing promising results for Dems. From +25 to +35 for both Dem candidates this time around, and it's got a sizeable voting population.
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On January 06 2021 09:48 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 09:46 LegalLord wrote:
The percent of votes change very rapidly with each drop of new votes. Margins relative to November definitely look like they favor Dems. This is what I'm getting from the numbers right now as well. The numbers are fairly in line with what happened in November. It's going to seriously come down to that young people turnout. If that turnout that I mentioned earlier is because they already voted by mail, Dems have this. If that number is reflective of that actual proportion of young voters, Dems should be nervous. Either way, the Dem strategy moving forward really needs to be getting the young people out to vote and pushing hard.
Don't worry, noone galvanizes voters like Kamala Harris. 
Who do Democrats even have the young people really like? Presuming/hoping Bernie/Biden doesn't run again in 2024.
I think they may try and push Pete Buttigieg, since hes not prehistoric. Kamala will obviously see play 'cause VP.
They seem the most likely based on age, but I dont think we're going to see any decent leftist-Bernie-type candidates next go around.
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On January 06 2021 09:52 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 09:48 FlaShFTW wrote:On January 06 2021 09:46 LegalLord wrote:
The percent of votes change very rapidly with each drop of new votes. Margins relative to November definitely look like they favor Dems. This is what I'm getting from the numbers right now as well. The numbers are fairly in line with what happened in November. It's going to seriously come down to that young people turnout. If that turnout that I mentioned earlier is because they already voted by mail, Dems have this. If that number is reflective of that actual proportion of young voters, Dems should be nervous. Either way, the Dem strategy moving forward really needs to be getting the young people out to vote and pushing hard. Don't worry, noone galvanizes voters like Kamala Harris. Who do Democrats even have the young people really like? Presuming/hoping Bernie/Biden doesn't run again in 2024. I think they may try and push Pete Buttigieg, since hes not prehistoric. Kamala will obviously see play 'cause VP. They seem the most likely based on age, but I dont think we're going to see any decent leftist-Bernie-type candidates next go around.
Imo, AOC would rile up the young people vote like no other, but she would also face a ton of backlash from the moderates and the right would start screaming their heads up about how Stalin is back or something.
Yang is really energetic and young people love him, too bad he's too niche of a candidate. He's much better on the ground like he's doing in Georgia right now.
Pete is the best long-term option for Dems atm.
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On January 06 2021 09:49 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 09:48 hiro protagonist wrote:
Are they are counting Absentee ballots along with the day of, or is it one before the other? Absentees are coming in alongside day-of ballots. All of Fulton County's ballots are from absentee so far.
Got it. Seeing how Republicans will be more likely to vote day of, still chances of things tightening. gonna be a close one ether way i"m guessing ( I know, hardly a controversial opinion)
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I'd really like to see Yang, now that you mention it.
I'm really not keen on AOC at the moment given the squads voting for Nancy Pelosi seemingly for nothing, so she might even honestly have a mildly fractured leftist base to work from if she doesn't drum up some leftist good will, but maybe shes just better enough than the alternatives that leftists dont care.
I really, really hope we don't see Pete though, I truly think he's going to wind up a Hillary Clinton and I sincerely think that we dont get too many of those without seeing a Competent Trump win and cause the kind of long term annihilation that Trump could only dream of.
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On January 06 2021 09:58 Zambrah wrote:
I'd really like to see Yang, now that you mention it.
I'm really not keen on AOC at the moment given the squads voting for Nancy Pelosi seemingly for nothing, so she might even honestly have a mildly fractured leftist base to work from if she doesn't drum up some leftist good will, but maybe shes just better enough than the alternatives that leftists dont care.
I really, really hope we don't see Pete though, I truly think he's going to wind up a Hillary Clinton and I sincerely think that we dont get too many of those without seeing a Competent Trump win and cause the kind of long term annihilation that Trump could only dream of.
Pelosi ran opposed. Not sure how AOC should have voted.
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I wish there were more ways to reach young voters about how politics will affect their lives rather than relying on the charisma of a candidate every time. We need to bring back civics education, I don't remember having any at all when I was growing up.
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On January 06 2021 09:58 hiro protagonist wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 09:49 FlaShFTW wrote:On January 06 2021 09:48 hiro protagonist wrote:
Are they are counting Absentee ballots along with the day of, or is it one before the other? Absentees are coming in alongside day-of ballots. All of Fulton County's ballots are from absentee so far. Got it. Seeing how Republicans will be more likely to vote day of, still chances of things tightening. gonna be a close one ether way i"m guessing ( I know, hardly a controversial opinion)
Hey, even non-controversial opinions matter right now. Anything goes on election night, even wild takes or no movement takes matter.
Thus far, most absentee ballots have put Dems at about +10-20 compared to November, but those numbers will be chipped away as the night moves on.
However, another good news for Dems is that those solid R small counties saw no improvement for Republicans since November. In fact, most of them lost a couple of points (anything from 0-4 point losses)
Dooly and Crisp are just about done with votes, both were solid R that dropped a lot in favor of Dems. That's not a good sign for Republicans, they need all the votes they can squeeze from the rural vote. (Dooly +7 R-> +2, Crisp +26R -> +17)
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On January 06 2021 09:59 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 09:58 Zambrah wrote:
I'd really like to see Yang, now that you mention it.
I'm really not keen on AOC at the moment given the squads voting for Nancy Pelosi seemingly for nothing, so she might even honestly have a mildly fractured leftist base to work from if she doesn't drum up some leftist good will, but maybe shes just better enough than the alternatives that leftists dont care.
I really, really hope we don't see Pete though, I truly think he's going to wind up a Hillary Clinton and I sincerely think that we dont get too many of those without seeing a Competent Trump win and cause the kind of long term annihilation that Trump could only dream of. Pelosi ran opposed. Not sure how AOC should have voted.
Any squad defiance, or some material gains were what I wanted. It looks like they unanimously voted for her in exchange for nothing.
It really sours me on them given AOC campaigning on courage and disruption, and then when an opportunity arises to display some courage and cause some disruption she folds for nothing.
At this point I'm trying my best not to think of the squad at all, and mostly spending my mental energy hoping Warnocke and Ossoff win the runoffs so we can have a Democrat house, senate, and presidency which would pave the way for the kind of power that keeps Democrats from having any excuses for inaction.
On January 06 2021 10:00 Starlightsun wrote:
I wish there were more ways to reach young voters about how politics will affect their lives rather than relying on the charisma of a candidate every time. We need to bring back civics education, I don't remember having any at all when I was growing up.
I think part of why charisma is so important is that its very very hard to trust any politician to keep to their word. Maybe its just me, but I'm so used to feeling screwed and maligned by my politicians that policy promises feel very, very hollow to me without some serious reason to think otherwise (like a long political history that jives with the promises and such.)
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Quarter of the way through the votes, 26% reporting and both Dems are projected about +1 and NYT has it 60% for Warnock, 57% for Ossoff. If I had to make a prediction now, I'd go with a double Dem win. Really just looking for those big Svannah and Atlanta dumps at this point. Those will be the tell-tale sign that even if Republicans didn't perform better in rural, if they can stem the tide of the blue wave in the cities, they can still pull off a win.
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Really happy to hear there was a significant ground game in Georgia for run offs
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So from scrolling through 20+% reporting results real quick (and with the caveat that the vast majority of the results are incomplete). It seems a lot of the red areas stayed consistently red (+- 5%), but the blue areas got more blue.
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On January 06 2021 10:09 Mohdoo wrote:
Really happy to hear there was a significant ground game in Georgia for run offs
Given that the prize is control of the Senate, it'd be surprising if there weren't.
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If theres one highlight from this election cycle its that a very powerful showing has been made for grassroots organizing, primarily coming from Georgia.
Stacey Abrams, Killer Mike, etc. have done really fantastic work galvanizing Georgians.
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EPT
