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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2928

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7384 Posts
January 06 2021 00:01 GMT
#58541
God I hope they win so I can be in the win-win position of either seeing something good happen once in this god forsaken country or getting to bitch about the Democrats.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
Broetchenholer
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany1947 Posts
January 06 2021 00:08 GMT
#58542
On January 06 2021 06:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Seems oddly targeted combined with the odd phrasing. Was wondering what brought that about.

American conservatives, European far left, strong far right, anti Corona measures community, Nazi, right leaning folks, Christians are all specific groups which people would identify themselves as such. People of French descent, not so much. A French person would not describe themselves as a person of French descent, much like you wouldn't describe yourself as a person of norwegian descent.

Who knows, maybe people of French descent, whatever that supposed to be meant, have a greater propensity in Germany to ignore coronvirus regulations.


No, i was just picking a nationality as an example. Same with chistianity. I am not aware of any other group then Querdenker and AfD that is arguing so strongly against the corona measures in germany and endanger others by not following the rules. But if there were any, i would not see why we should not try to identify and watch them, no matter if they are ethnic, religious or other minorities. Being a minority does not protect from the law. and being far-right is especially not protecting anyone from it.
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32743 Posts
January 06 2021 00:10 GMT
#58543
Expect these elections to replicate what we saw in November with Republicans outpacing at first (the Red Mirage) and Democratic votes catching up later. There's also mail-ins and Democratic stronghold cities that take longer to count, so we may be in for another nail biter dragging on until Friday or Saturday. But I'd guess we'll have a good idea of who is winning by late today or tomorrow once they crunch the numbers per district.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10236 Posts
January 06 2021 00:15 GMT
#58544
First few results are in, and there are basically no deviations between the two races right now. It's gonna be winner-take-all, I don't anticipate a split decision. It will be either 2R or 2D.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10236 Posts
January 06 2021 00:18 GMT
#58545
[image loading]

As usual, we will be analyzing the before and present versions of the votes because I think those will be the best indicator of how the results will be predicted in the future. Remember that Dems barely eeked out wins in the general, so they'll want to keep hold of that line. Thus far though, Republicans look like they've gained a bit in their tiny districts, but will that be enough. Reports have said that the Democrat voting this time is weaker, with less younger voters. That being said, mail-in might be even stronger this time so that doesn't give us a clear picture as the first few counties come in.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
HelpMeGetBetter
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
United States764 Posts
January 06 2021 00:20 GMT
#58546
so this will be similar to the election? early Rep lead, then mail votes go for Dems? hopefully anyway
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10236 Posts
January 06 2021 00:25 GMT
#58547
Ossoff is definitely behind his Democratic running mate for this election by about 9k votes. We'll see if the vote margin is enough to keep him ahead but maybe my earlier prediction of a winner take all is misleading.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7384 Posts
January 06 2021 00:25 GMT
#58548
If the projections are tiny republican improvements and mild democrat losses than I think we're probably going to see Loeffler and Perdue win.

Thats where I'd put my money anyways.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10236 Posts
January 06 2021 00:26 GMT
#58549
Ok double just kidding, for some reason the vote reporting isn't the same for both. Example: Warnock-Loeffler race has Rockingdale in, but Ossoff-Perdue doesn't. Seems weird to me but oh well.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
January 06 2021 00:31 GMT
#58550
A sizeable first-drop lead for the two Democrats. I suppose now is about time to wildly extrapolate about how the rest of the results will look.

I think "both Democrats win" is the most likely result today. That's what the latest polls show, and the momentum is not fantastic for Republicans based on what the last two months have looked like.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
hiro protagonist
Profile Joined January 2009
1294 Posts
January 06 2021 00:31 GMT
#58551
FlashFTW desk best desk
"I guess if you climb enough off-widths, one of these days, your gonna get your knee stuck and shit your pants. Its just an odds thing really" -Jason Kruk
Anc13nt
Profile Blog Joined October 2017
1557 Posts
January 06 2021 00:32 GMT
#58552
if Democrats were as crazy as republicans they'd be shouting "st0P tH3 C0uN7" at this point
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7384 Posts
January 06 2021 00:34 GMT
#58553
On January 06 2021 09:31 hiro protagonist wrote:
FlashFTW desk best desk


Agreed, in my opinion its the highlight of the thread!

Looking forward to either eating dinner with intense trepidation over this runoff election.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10236 Posts
January 06 2021 00:38 GMT
#58554
Democrats are looking decent so far. Early County has flipped blue for this race, from a lean R county to a fairly blue county, +10 R -> +10 D. Very good signs for Dems. Most of the flips so far have been R->D. We'll just have to see if the rest of the counties are looking like that or if they're outliers.

Dooly County and Washington County are both trending the same way.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
January 06 2021 00:39 GMT
#58555
On January 06 2021 09:38 FlaShFTW wrote:
Democrats are looking decent so far. Early County has flipped blue for this race, from a lean R county to a fairly blue county, +10 R -> +10 D. Very good signs for Dems. Most of the flips so far have been R->D. We'll just have to see if the rest of the counties are looking like that or if they're outliers.

Dooly County and Washington County are both trending the same way.


Flipped from when? Presidential election? If so, that is pretty wild.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10236 Posts
January 06 2021 00:39 GMT
#58556
On January 06 2021 09:31 hiro protagonist wrote:
FlashFTW desk best desk

When the fuck do I get hired by a network or Nate Silver?

[image loading]
These are the results that I'm looking at the most btw. Still some more results to come in but if these numbers stick, I'm very confident in a double Dem win tonight.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10236 Posts
January 06 2021 00:40 GMT
#58557
On January 06 2021 09:39 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2021 09:38 FlaShFTW wrote:
Democrats are looking decent so far. Early County has flipped blue for this race, from a lean R county to a fairly blue county, +10 R -> +10 D. Very good signs for Dems. Most of the flips so far have been R->D. We'll just have to see if the rest of the counties are looking like that or if they're outliers.

Dooly County and Washington County are both trending the same way.


Flipped from when? Presidential election? If so, that is pretty wild.

I'm not sure if the "Nov results" are for Presidential or Senate, but they should be pretty close anyways since Biden won by a sliver and both the Dems made it by slivers too.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32743 Posts
January 06 2021 00:40 GMT
#58558
Avoid the temptation to conclude the election off these, but per Nathaniel Rakich at 538's live blog:

We just got about 96,000 absentee votes in Fulton County (Atlanta), which Ossoff won 80 percent to 20 percent and Warnock won 81 percent to 19 percent. In November, Biden won Fulton County absentees 79 percent to 21 percent, so tonight’s numbers imply another very close race.


And we also just got about 96,000 absentee votes in Gwinnett County (the Atlanta suburbs). Ossoff won this batch 70 percent to 30 percent, and Warnock won them 71 percent to 29 percent. Biden won Gwinnett absentee ballots just 66 percent to 33 percent, so that’s a pretty good sign for Democrats.


Atlanta so far is holding to November's trend, and Warnock is running an inch ahead of Ossoff.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10236 Posts
January 06 2021 00:42 GMT
#58559
Btw this time with the absentee ballots coming in pretty early, they will heavily favor Dems. Once again, those votes are coming in at a 80-20/85-15 pace for Dems early on with Fulton County reporting at +60 for Dems right now.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
January 06 2021 00:43 GMT
#58560
On January 06 2021 09:40 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Avoid the temptation to conclude the election off these, but per Nathaniel Rakich at 538's live blog:

Show nested quote +
We just got about 96,000 absentee votes in Fulton County (Atlanta), which Ossoff won 80 percent to 20 percent and Warnock won 81 percent to 19 percent. In November, Biden won Fulton County absentees 79 percent to 21 percent, so tonight’s numbers imply another very close race.


Show nested quote +
And we also just got about 96,000 absentee votes in Gwinnett County (the Atlanta suburbs). Ossoff won this batch 70 percent to 30 percent, and Warnock won them 71 percent to 29 percent. Biden won Gwinnett absentee ballots just 66 percent to 33 percent, so that’s a pretty good sign for Democrats.


Atlanta so far is holding to November's trend, and Warnock is running an inch ahead of Ossoff.

Given the national significance of this specific race, I would expect some very high turnout relative to precedent.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
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