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On January 05 2021 14:12 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2021 13:50 Salazarz wrote:On January 05 2021 12:27 LegalLord wrote:Your article might have made more sense in September, when it was written, than in January, when the winter wave sent Europe's numbers sharply upward, especially in countries that were spared from the first spike. At this point, citing an article using data only up through July seems like some awful cherry-picking. So because numbers are changing now, suddenly it doesn't matter that Trump was literally lying about everything COVID-related, actual numbers included, 3 to 6 months ago? Is your argument that he isn't an abject failure of a president and a liar, he's just a visionnaire prophet who simply got slightly confused by his ability to gaze into the future? Also, your accusation of cherry-picking implies there is analysis of similar quality that includes more recent data to show a different conclusion. Do you have any detailed analysis that is more up to date? I don't, so there's nothing to cherry pick from for me. I also don't believe that whatever changes in numbers today, or 6 months from now, would in any way change the fact that early COVID response in the US was absolutely terrible and much worse than COVID response in Europe was, as evident from the article linked. It would simply show that after X period of time, Europe also fucked up, despite their initially better handling of it. The fact that numbers are different now, with Europe deteriorating far worse than the US, changes the story being told based on July numbers, very much so in a way that does indeed make the US look relatively better versus Europe than it did at the time period of data comparison. Nothing more, nothing less. Feel free to have whatever assessment of Trump you like, since this is far less a referendum on Trump's character than on the alleged impact his presidency may or may not have had on pandemic fallout in the US. Dropping an article without context that is out of date in a significant way is indeed both lazy and cherry-picking. Provided without any of your own analysis and referencing the one cutoff point that would least favorably represent the US when there's literally twice as much data available as was used for said analysis. As for the article you linked, it's primarily pointless drivel with one key observation of "look how much better Europe's excess death per capita numbers are than the US." We don't have a whole lot of excess death data for full year 2020 right now, but even looking at just reported death data for US vs Europe shows an obvious and profound deterioration of the European situation since about the start of November. Which, incidentally, brings death per capita much closer to parity between the two.
His presidency clearly had an impact on the pandemic in the US. As evident from the numbers presented in the article, the US had far worse initial coronavirus response than countries which had less time to prepare to it did. Would a different president in the US have a better initial response? You can debate this as much as you like, but considering that there were both a) multiple countries that responded better (actually just about every country in the world) and b) he blatantly lied and misrepresented facts, I think the conclusion is fairly obvious. As for EU currently doing worse than the US and thus their response is just as bad... first of all, whatever trajectory the pandemic takes now or in the future has nothing to do with the fact that the initial pandemic response in the US was atrocious. There isn't 'twice as much data available' now, there's a longer timeframe. It's not the same thing. Secondly, if you'd like to argue that US has now gotten their shit together while things in EU are deteriorating, please make that clear in your post otherwise it almost sounds like you're saying one thing but claiming it proves something different entirely. Thirdly, if you look at trajectory of cases / fatalities in the US and in European countries right now with this 'winter spike' happening, the US still doesn't look particularly good. It's just not a massive outlier in how bad it is for the time being, having passed the honors to the UK.
Anyway, if you think the analysis presented in that article is just 'pointless drivel' and 'cherry-picked dates', you're welcome to present something better. I just hope it'll be more engaging than the handful of posts earlier in this thread explaining how high obesity in the US is leading to a higher number of deaths because the US is so special and unique, and completely ignoring all the 'special and unique' factors of other countries.
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Wow the fracturing of the republican party is on full display with Georgia. Really hope this lets dems take both seates, things are so much better if they dont have to deal with mr do nothing and let the country burn.
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Can't you please stop comparing the Covid responses in Europe as a whole to the US as a whole, and especially the US as a whole to certain EU countries? It makes no sense! I haven't even seen the Europe total averages presented.
Even within the US, comparing is difficult as the counting is done in different ways, which do not show up in the numbers. The same is the case for Belgium.
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I think we finally found the issue where American conservatives feel it's okay to compare American numbers to European ones without claiming exceptionalism. If we could just use this for the gun rights argument, we European far left posters will finally win the internet.
If you look at Germany where the pandemic is worst, there is a lesson to be learned. The worst counties all lie in an area where a strong far right and anti Corona measures community lives. Those communities were observed ignoring the regulations and local law enforcement was observed ignoring that. I would love to see scientific work being done to show the only reason those areas were hit harder was stupidity to finally show nazis are murderers, because some parts of Germany have forgotten that already.
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On January 05 2021 18:20 Broetchenholer wrote:
I think we finally found the issue where American conservatives feel it's okay to compare American numbers to European ones without claiming exceptionalism. If we could just use this for the gun rights argument, we European far left posters will finally win the internet.
If you look at Germany where the pandemic is worst, there is a lesson to be learned. The worst counties all lie in an area where a strong far right and anti Corona measures community lives. Those communities were observed ignoring the regulations and local law enforcement was observed ignoring that. I would love to see scientific work being done to show the only reason those areas were hit harder was stupidity to finally show nazis are murderers, because some parts of Germany have forgotten that already.
It's definitely not a good time to be a Nazi.
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But won't somebody think of the poor Nazis?
User was warned for this post.
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I think comparing with Europe is ok, as long as it is not apples and oranges. Comparing cities and areas with similar populations and infrastructure makes a lot of sense and could give some answers.
Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland all have similar cultures, but if you look at a map of Denmark, you see huge consentration of people around Copenhagen, a major international airport and a small, flat countey well knit together by highways, ferries and railroads. It should not surprise anyone that the virus eventually caught up with them.
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Northern Ireland23843 Posts
On January 05 2021 18:20 Broetchenholer wrote:
I think we finally found the issue where American conservatives feel it's okay to compare American numbers to European ones without claiming exceptionalism. If we could just use this for the gun rights argument, we European far left posters will finally win the internet.
If you look at Germany where the pandemic is worst, there is a lesson to be learned. The worst counties all lie in an area where a strong far right and anti Corona measures community lives. Those communities were observed ignoring the regulations and local law enforcement was observed ignoring that. I would love to see scientific work being done to show the only reason those areas were hit harder was stupidity to finally show nazis are murderers, because some parts of Germany have forgotten that already.
Going off intuition I’d find it hard to argue against that being a factor, I’d imagine it’s a bastard to actually model though.
I do think as the longer the crisis stretches on the less relevant perhaps this may be as a factor though.
The previously compliant even with good will will eventually crack, never mind those frustrated with how things are being managed in such a haphazard and seemingly arbitrary manner.
Perhaps not as visibly egregious as things like maskless protests outside NHS hospitals about the virus being a hoax, but the virus isn’t going to differentiate in that regard in terms of spread across the whole population.
To say I’m massively personally frustrated at this stage is something of an understatement. Twice now I’ve eschewed socialising due to other commitments and pushed that back a week or two, and twice lockdown measures were brought in at short notice that made my rescheduled social opportunities impossible. Stricter measures I was in favour of having but people wouldn’t bite the bullet so it’s done fucking piecemeal.
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So, Hawley's family residence got visited by an antifa group last night. (They live in a DC suburb, which the group points out to be a little strange, but he's not at all alone in that being the case).
Now, I'm not totally sure how I feel about this. Hawley is definitely misrepresenting the situation. He claims there was vandalism and threats, but he wasn't actually there. The group released a stream of what happened and there's definitely no vandalism and no overt threats. (They sang some songs and left a copy of the constitution).
(This is part of why I take Carlson's and others claims with a massive grain of salt : if there's no video evidence, I will ALWAYS take the antifa group's word, as whenever there HAS been video evidence, it's shown they're being more honest than the other group involved. Also depends on the person : with Carlson, I believe an antifa group was present and did something that could have been interpreted as negative. If it were Hannity, I wouldn't believe anything without external proof).
It's still probably a bit far since Hawley wasn't in residence : if he had been there, I think it would have at least made sense, though maybe been a bit past what I would consider to be fair game (and honestly, they may not have known he wasn't there). I can get why his family would feel threatened, even if that wasn't the intention.
But, honestly, it's small potatoes to what has happened to health officials across the country : Ohio's most effective person resigned after her family received repeated death threats and the response then fell from one of the best to below average. She's hardly alone : it's been especially prominent as a reaction to female health advisors. Gretchen Whitmer has had actual assassination plots against her and their congress threatened with loaded weapons.
So now the antifa group is calling Hawley a snowflake and taking pride in being called antifascists. I don't entirely think they're wrong : if you don't want to be called a fascist, maybe consider, don't act like a fascist? (as this whole thing is in response to Hawley leading an effort to overturn the electoral vote)
WAPO writeup:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/05/hawley-protest-antifa-scumbags-virginia/?itid=hp_MM - LIVE ON HP
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Someone should ask him for a photo of the property damage and then we can all laugh at the thought of him destroying his own stuff for a photo.
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One thing that will be interesting is seeing how accurate polls are in Georgia senate race when compared to presidential race. Any idea when we know who won?
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If you want to blame specific groups, you can also very easily turn on ethnic and religious minorities, with official statistics in hand. I would not go there, even to take a potshot at "nazis."
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On January 06 2021 01:39 Mohdoo wrote:
One thing that will be interesting is seeing how accurate polls are in Georgia senate race when compared to presidential race. Any idea when we know who won?
Between 7 hours from now and a week from now depending on how close the margins are and on how competent the ballot counting process is.
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On January 06 2021 01:25 Nevuk wrote:
So, Hawley's family residence got visited by an antifa group last night. (They live in a DC suburb, which the group points out to be a little strange, but he's not at all alone in that being the case).
<Snip> Regardless of political affiliation and if people are threatening or not, visiting them at their homes goes beyond what I find acceptable behaviour.
No matter how 'well intentioned' and 'civilised' your being, its hard for a group of people standing outside your house to not give off a threatening atmosphere.
Protest at their office, not their homes.
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On January 06 2021 01:51 JimmiC wrote:
Pretty crazy to think that if the dems win, no matter the margin, all (a huge % of the population) will believe it was rigged. I'm not sure how you get confidence back in the electoral system, but that is the biggest challenge for democracy in America.
If the Reps win I'm not sure that the dems will feel the same, but given Trumps call and other acts I could see them going down this path as well where no matter the result a good 40-55% of the people think it is fixed.
I'd be surprised if that amount of Democrats concluded it was rigged just because they lost. If there were credible evidence for it yeah, but it would be sad to see both parties stoop to living in fantasy world instead of reality. One of the main reasons why the Democratic party is far and away more palatable than the Republican is the latter's descent into pure madness and conspiracy theories. Their not caring about truth or honesty at all is what makes any Republican attempt at lecturing from the moral high ground laughable. Yet they do it now with more zeal than ever and their base loves it.
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United States41989 Posts
On January 06 2021 02:02 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 01:25 Nevuk wrote:
So, Hawley's family residence got visited by an antifa group last night. (They live in a DC suburb, which the group points out to be a little strange, but he's not at all alone in that being the case).
<Snip> Regardless of political affiliation and if people are threatening or not, visiting them at their homes goes beyond what I find acceptable behaviour. No matter how 'well intentioned' and 'civilised' your being, its hard for a group of people standing outside your house to not give off a threatening atmosphere. Protest at their office, not their homes.
My only issue with reminding politicians that they live in the same society as the wider populace they dismiss and abuse is that they’ll just buy homes in gated communities.
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EPT
