NBA Regular Season 2011-2012 - Page 150

On February 18 2012 21:26 x2fst wrote:
what about when you said fg% is a more useful metric than ts%, that's pretty lol if you actually adhere to your stated aim

On February 19 2012 03:50 Skullflower wrote:


I basically realized how much of a joke he was when he said Russell Westbrook > KD. I knew he was a joke before that but that was just like a whole new level of stupidity.

On February 19 2012 09:10 Ace wrote:


It is. When you're evaluating the top players in the league, you don't use TS% because then guys like Kevin Martin and Chauncey Billups get overrated. FG% is a far, far more indicative metric of where you'll find guys that will score consistently well. If you look at the top players in the NBA over the last ~30 years just about every single one of them have high FG%. This is a little lax because I don't feel like lecturing but it also takes into account rebounding and the ability to limit fast breaks of the opposing team. TS% doesn't tell you anything you'd want to know when it comes to who you'd really want as your #1 option or who is a better scorer between 2 players of similar position.



I remember that one. Thing is he was wrong, but not too far off in a way. He could have clarified it by saying Westbrook is almost as valuable to OKC as Durant, but when he said he was flat out better I was like o.0?!

On February 19 2012 13:16 x2fst wrote:
correlation with offensive efficiency consistently higher with ts% compared to fg%. opponent ts% is also has a higher correlation with defensive efficiency than fg%, again this is true every year. (http://hoopdata.com has the data for this)

hard to fast break off made free throws, and the effect of long rebounds isn't enough to overcome this impact because possessions ending in long 2s carry less turnover risk than drives/cuts for close shots. live ball turnovers are far more costly to a team's d than missed jumpers. offensive rebounding is the next most important offensive stat that can negatively impact d. long rebounds really don't matter that much at all. there's been a lot written about these in the various blogs, should be able to find them through a little googling

for example: if dwight howard shot 90% from the line he would score, ~4 more pts per game on the same amount of possessions. the best teams in the nba outscore their opponents by like 5-7ppg generally. 4ppg is HUGE over the course of a season. fg% would tell you nothing about this effect, whereas ts% would reflect his drastically improved efficiency. if dwights fg% were to increase, ts% would take it into account in terms of it's actual effect on his production. ts% has it's limitations as every stat does, but fg% is far more flawed and less relevant almost every circumstance

if you have some data to back up your claims i'm interested in reading it though

On February 19 2012 13:50 cLutZ wrote:



One problem with NBA box scores is the scoring of shooting while fouling. Its very hard to separate them.

On February 20 2012 02:20 Jibba wrote:
Yes, the idea of compounding everything into a single statistic is stupid, especially when it hides important nuances. Fucking Hollinger & co. They're trying to follow baseball's lead, except baseball did it with the help of actual statisticians. It's like NA players copying Korean build orders, without understanding why.