NBA Regular Season 2011-2012 - Page 150
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iLoveKT
Philippines3615 Posts
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VENDIZ
1575 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On February 18 2012 21:26 x2fst wrote: what about when you said fg% is a more useful metric than ts%, that's pretty lol if you actually adhere to your stated aim It is. When you're evaluating the top players in the league, you don't use TS% because then guys like Kevin Martin and Chauncey Billups get overrated. FG% is a far, far more indicative metric of where you'll find guys that will score consistently well. If you look at the top players in the NBA over the last ~30 years just about every single one of them have high FG%. This is a little lax because I don't feel like lecturing but it also takes into account rebounding and the ability to limit fast breaks of the opposing team. TS% doesn't tell you anything you'd want to know when it comes to who you'd really want as your #1 option or who is a better scorer between 2 players of similar position. On February 19 2012 03:50 Skullflower wrote: I basically realized how much of a joke he was when he said Russell Westbrook > KD. I knew he was a joke before that but that was just like a whole new level of stupidity. I remember that one. Thing is he was wrong, but not too far off in a way. He could have clarified it by saying Westbrook is almost as valuable to OKC as Durant, but when he said he was flat out better I was like o.0?! | ||
VENDIZ
1575 Posts
On February 19 2012 09:10 Ace wrote: It is. When you're evaluating the top players in the league, you don't use TS% because then guys like Kevin Martin and Chauncey Billups get overrated. FG% is a far, far more indicative metric of where you'll find guys that will score consistently well. If you look at the top players in the NBA over the last ~30 years just about every single one of them have high FG%. This is a little lax because I don't feel like lecturing but it also takes into account rebounding and the ability to limit fast breaks of the opposing team. TS% doesn't tell you anything you'd want to know when it comes to who you'd really want as your #1 option or who is a better scorer between 2 players of similar position. I remember that one. Thing is he was wrong, but not too far off in a way. He could have clarified it by saying Westbrook is almost as valuable to OKC as Durant, but when he said he was flat out better I was like o.0?! Just a quick question regarding the FG% (well, it's somewhat related); Do you think Granger deserved to be an All-Star ahead of Pierce, Iggy & Deng? (I know I don't, and some of it is due to his 37% FG over the season) | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19565 Posts
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MilesTeg
France1271 Posts
Thank you. Regards, Spurs fans | ||
manicsquare
176 Posts
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x2fst
1272 Posts
hard to fast break off made free throws, and the effect of long rebounds isn't enough to overcome this impact because possessions ending in long 2s carry less turnover risk than drives/cuts for close shots. live ball turnovers are far more costly to a team's d than missed jumpers. offensive rebounding is the next most important offensive stat that can negatively impact d. long rebounds really don't matter that much at all. there's been a lot written about these in the various blogs, should be able to find them through a little googling for example: if dwight howard shot 90% from the line he would score, ~4 more pts per game on the same amount of possessions. the best teams in the nba outscore their opponents by like 5-7ppg generally. 4ppg is HUGE over the course of a season. fg% would tell you nothing about this effect, whereas ts% would reflect his drastically improved efficiency. if dwights fg% were to increase, ts% would take it into account in terms of it's actual effect on his production. ts% has it's limitations as every stat does, but fg% is far more flawed and less relevant almost every circumstance if you have some data to back up your claims i'm interested in reading it though | ||
cLutZ
United States19565 Posts
On February 19 2012 13:16 x2fst wrote: correlation with offensive efficiency consistently higher with ts% compared to fg%. opponent ts% is also has a higher correlation with defensive efficiency than fg%, again this is true every year. (http://hoopdata.com has the data for this) hard to fast break off made free throws, and the effect of long rebounds isn't enough to overcome this impact because possessions ending in long 2s carry less turnover risk than drives/cuts for close shots. live ball turnovers are far more costly to a team's d than missed jumpers. offensive rebounding is the next most important offensive stat that can negatively impact d. long rebounds really don't matter that much at all. there's been a lot written about these in the various blogs, should be able to find them through a little googling for example: if dwight howard shot 90% from the line he would score, ~4 more pts per game on the same amount of possessions. the best teams in the nba outscore their opponents by like 5-7ppg generally. 4ppg is HUGE over the course of a season. fg% would tell you nothing about this effect, whereas ts% would reflect his drastically improved efficiency. if dwights fg% were to increase, ts% would take it into account in terms of it's actual effect on his production. ts% has it's limitations as every stat does, but fg% is far more flawed and less relevant almost every circumstance if you have some data to back up your claims i'm interested in reading it though One problem with NBA box scores is the scoring of shooting while fouling. Its very hard to separate them. | ||
parazice
Thailand5517 Posts
>.< | ||
x2fst
1272 Posts
On February 19 2012 13:50 cLutZ wrote: what do you mean? if you're saying it's hard to assess the value of foul shooting then ts% does just that pretty wellOne problem with NBA box scores is the scoring of shooting while fouling. Its very hard to separate them. | ||
Itsmedudeman
United States19229 Posts
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
So Ace isn't saying FG% is a better statistic than TS% for determining overall shooting impact in a statistical sense (b/c it isn't), he is saying it is more useful in comparing players we have in mind and want to compare them. If I say " ya West shot 45% from the field while taking 20 shots, shot 5-6 from the line, while taking no 3-point shots", that description would be much more useful in comparing him to player x than saying " ya West TS% was 52". | ||
Jibba
United States22883 Posts
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Riskr
Germany403 Posts
Need stats,otherwise i predict a 100% chance of not more than 15pts! | ||
buickskylark
Canada664 Posts
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Ownos
United States2147 Posts
On February 20 2012 02:20 Jibba wrote: Yes, the idea of compounding everything into a single statistic is stupid, especially when it hides important nuances. Fucking Hollinger & co. They're trying to follow baseball's lead, except baseball did it with the help of actual statisticians. It's like NA players copying Korean build orders, without understanding why. Haha. The analogy is dead on. | ||
CosmicSpiral
United States15275 Posts
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udgnim
United States8024 Posts
not like Novak will get a chance to get into foul trouble | ||
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