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BroOd
Austin10833 Posts
On November 13 2010 05:24 Ferrose wrote: The 5-4 Heat are still ahead of the 8-1 Lakers and 7-0 Hornets in Hollinger's rankings on ESPN. Hollinger uses advanced algoriths handed down from Olympus that mere men were never meant to understand. | ||
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Holcan
Canada2593 Posts
On November 13 2010 06:47 XaI)CyRiC wrote: It's also known that Rondo was on the chopping block for a while as well as everyone knew his game would likely not transfer well to international play. Rondo was a suspect to be cut for a long while because of his inability to shoot, as we've learned long ago that our teams have to be able to score from the perimeter in international basketball. While he may not have been "cut", it wasn't like the only reason he didn't make the team was because of his own choice. It's not a slight against Rondo either, just a fact that his game didn't fit what Team USA needed from its PGs. The fact that Rondo got a large contract doesn't show that he's not hard to work with or that he's elite, it just shows how important he is to the Celtics. Joe Johnson got a ridiculous contract even larger than Rondo's this past offseason, does that establish that he's an elite player that's better than Rondo? Rondo is indeed very valuable because of his willingness to scrap and do the dirty work, and he is pretty efficient from the field (FTs meh....) and in terms of AST/TO ratio. But the fact remains that he is a TERRIBLE shooter from the perimeter, which is absolutely a huge problem for a PG. He is literally a non-threat unless he's shooting a layup, which is ridiculous for an NBA-level PG, let alone an elite one. You'll recall that there were times during the playoffs where he was completely ignored by opposing defenses, which resulted in Boston's offense struggling. His fear of going to the FT line (a well-founded fear) also hurt his aggressiveness, which has also negatively impacted Boston in many situations. Rondo still remains a great, elite-level PG because he excels in rebounding, defense and running the Celtics' offense, but you can't just ignore such a major detriment to his game which is masked by his current teammates and would be a big problem on many other teams. I don't think Rondo's draft position has been mentioned in assessing his value as a player, or even in comparison to Rose, so I'll treat that as a non-issue. I don't think anyone has denied that Rondo contributes a lot to the Celtics' success, and that he is vital to what they do. What some people have done is point to some of the circumstances that have allowed him to thrive in Boston, and to point out that those circumstances have to be looked out when comparing him to other players. Also, the references to Rondo's headcase nature don't come from nowhere, it's well-documented and has been mentioned even by his supporters. The fact that he's managed to get past that and perform so well at a high level is to be applauded, but it doesn't mean that we should just pretend that he's easy to get along with and highly coachable. I'm not sure what shots you're referring to that Rondo is taking. By and large, the Celtics do not rely on Rondo to take important shots because he's not good at shooting the ball. In crunch time, the ball usually ends up in the hands of the Big 3 for a reason, and Rondo's job is to get it to them. Is that role important? Most definitely. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking that Rondo is something that he isn't, i.e. a scorer. As to whether Rondo's game would "transcend to any location", I guess that remains to be seen. Personally, if his game stays as it is now and he doesn't improve his ability to shoot the ball, I think Rondo will have to be put in specific circumstances to play at his current level. Being a PG who can't score outside of the paint is a problem that many teams aren't equipped to deal with. Even some of the PGs who are considered poor shooters are significantly better than Rondo from both the perimeter and the FT line, i.e. Rose, Westbrook, Andre Miller and Devin Harris. I think Rondo would struggle if he were on a team with limited perimeter scoring, or scoring ability in general, because he simply struggles to put points on the board and, at the end of the day, you need points to win a game. As it stands, he's a bit of a specialist, albeit one of the best in the league. I really dont understand the point you are trying to get across here, was he cut from USA basketball? No, he left on his own. This should end that conversation right there. whether or not you think curry or Gordon wouldve been chosen over him is irrelevant, since Rondo left on his own, and was without a doubt the best defender on that team, and we all know Coach K creams himself when he gets a defensive player To answer your question, yes Joe Johnson is a better all around player than Rondo, just because im a fanboy doesnt mean i have blind faith....also people arent even mentioning the most important aspect, match-ups, the match-ups that Rondo provides is almost always favorable in the Celtics, they throw a better defender on rondo, all of a sudden Ray at 6'6" has a 6 foot PG on him, or Pierce, thats the real strength of Rondo, and his ability to finish near the rim, you have to respect it and place a defender on him that he wont blow by, and once you do that you open up two of the most prolific scorers in the past years, excellence. Also talk about selecting the correct players to fit your argument, ya, people with career numbers of 80% from the free throw line should be considered better shooter than rondo. Or do Rose, Miller, Westbrook and Harris not all shoot 80% from the line on their career? selective choice has made it seem like rondo is the new ray allen... | ||
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news
892 Posts
http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nba/columns/story?columnist=macmullan_jackie&id=5794510 "Last year, or even the year before they would just get a rebound and throw it to the nearest guy,'' Rivers said. "We're telling everyone to get the ball to Rondo and let him do what he does. The trust they have in him is unbelievable.'' "Rondo is as a unique a point guard as has been in this league for a long time,'' said Heat coach Erik Spoelstra. "He's so fast. He gets the overwhelming majority of his plays in random, unscripted situations. It's his creativity and speed that separates him. You are talking about the best passer, arguably, in the game. If you try to body up and play him at half court, you are playing with fire.'' | ||
XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
On November 13 2010 07:25 Holcan wrote:I really dont understand the point you are trying to get across here, was he cut from USA basketball? No, he left on his own. This should end that conversation right there. whether or not you think curry or Gordon wouldve been chosen over him is irrelevant, since Rondo left on his own, and was without a doubt the best defender on that team, and we all know Coach K creams himself when he gets a defensive player To be fair, no one really knows what the circumstances under which Rondo left Team USA. As you said, it was only after an exhibition game in which he basically didn't play that he "withdrew himself" from consideration. I also don't see why it remains relevant that he was "without a doubt the best defender on that team" and that Coach K must have wanted Rondo for that reason, and yet you ignore the fact that Rondo's complete lack of a perimeter game made him completely ill-suited to international basketball and that everyone was talking about that fact up until the time he "withdrew". To answer your question, yes Joe Johnson is a better all around player than Rondo, just because im a fanboy doesnt mean i have blind faith....also people arent even mentioning the most important aspect, match-ups, the match-ups that Rondo provides is almost always favorable in the Celtics, they throw a better defender on rondo, all of a sudden Ray at 6'6" has a 6 foot PG on him, or Pierce, thats the real strength of Rondo, and his ability to finish near the rim, you have to respect it and place a defender on him that he wont blow by, and once you do that you open up two of the most prolific scorers in the past years, excellence. Also talk about selecting the correct players to fit your argument, ya, people with career numbers of 80% from the free throw line should be considered better shooter than rondo. Or do Rose, Miller, Westbrook and Harris not all shoot 80% from the line on their career? Also, I don't see much evidence of your argument that Rondo creates favorable matchups for the Celtics. I assume from your description of having a 6 foot PG on Ray that you're referring to the Lakers who like to put Kobe on Rondo and Fisher on Ray, but that switch has more to do with the fact that Kobe is ill-suited to chasing a guy like Ray around screens all day (as opposed to Fish who is good at fighting through screens and doesn't like to float on defense like Kobe), than with Rondo being a bad matchup. If anything, the Lakers are more than happy to have Kobe guarding Rondo and having the freedom to be a help defender since he doesn't have to respect Rondo's perimeter shot at all. I haven't seen much evidence of other teams making similar switches, but I will freely admit that I haven't seen how all the other teams guard him. The fact is that any quick PG is impossible to guard nowadays one-on-one with the no-handcheck rules, and it ultimately takes good rotations to effectively stop that kind of penetration from killing your defense. What makes Rondo's penetration so dangerous is his great court vision and passing ability (which no one is contesting he has), which allows him to put the ball in the hands of great scorers like Ray, Pierce and KG once the defenses collapse. Rondo is in a great situation for his skillset because his own inability to score from the perimeter as a guard is countered by the talented scorers he has on his roster, and the ability of his PFs (KG and Big Baby) to shoot from the perimeter. Credit Boston for putting together a roster that works so well together, because not all teams have that kind of luxury. Put Rondo on a team with less talented scorers and less perimeter scoring, and defenses will simply pack the paint with no perimeter threat from the PG position. As for why I mentioned those particular PGs, as I stated in my post, they're all known as pretty poor perimeter shooters for their positions, and they all still shoot significantly better than Rondo from the perimeter. I'm not being selective, the fact is that any quality PG is going to shoot well from the FT line, and be at least decent from the perimeter. Rondo is entirely unique for his terrible FT% and inability to shoot from the perimeter, and it's not a good unique for a guard. There are no elite, or even just good, PGs with comparable perimeter and FT shooting ability to Rondo. You'd have to dig at the bottom of the well to come up with one who compares in those areas. It's not selective choice when the pool is what it is. | ||
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crazeman
664 Posts
On November 13 2010 06:49 BroOd wrote: Hollinger uses advanced algoriths handed down from Olympus that mere men were never meant to understand. I love hollinger but my insider subscription ran out last week  Waiting for a deal to hit to renew my insider account.I've only seen like 2 heat games so far but I'm not that impressed with their offense yet. It's a lot of 1 on 5 (IE Cleveland basketball from last year) only now Wade and James take turns doing it. | ||
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igotmyown
United States4291 Posts
On November 13 2010 05:24 Ferrose wrote: The 5-4 Heat are still ahead of the 8-1 Lakers and 7-0 Hornets in Hollinger's rankings on ESPN. Is point differential and strength of schedule really that complicated? The one thing I don't like about Hollinger is when he gives a non-stat basketball opinion. | ||
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Holcan
Canada2593 Posts
The circumstances for leaving are simple, he was a third string PG, and he didnt want to be a third string PG. He spends at least 7 months of basketball every year for the past 3 years, as well as making it deep into the playoffs every year, if he wants to step back from playing all summer for a team he wont see an minutes on to spend time with his family, i think he deserves a little bit more respect than random uninformed people claiming that he was cut. In fact ill take it a step higher and say that Rondo should be applauded for his responsible decision of assessing the situation and making the correct judgement in what needed to be done, instead of bashed by uninformed fans for failing to play limited minutes, thousands of miles away from home, for no pay in a tournament that USA dominated anyways. My argument on matchups was specifically for Rondo vs Eastern conference teams like Cleveland and Miami last year who had to place Dwayne and Lebron on Rondo just stop him, then having Williams or Chalmers on Ray for him to just shoot over. This is more responsible for his inflated assist statistic than his players being premier perimiter shooters, not to mention if he didnt draw defenders as well as he did Glen Davis wouldnt even be mentioned as a decent player, Davis owes his career to Rondo drawing defenders and allowing him to get layups, if perkins actually had hands that could grab a basketball passed to him than he would be a top 5 center in the league with how much opportunity he could be presented with. Rondo doesnt even get to the line enough for FT to be a factor, 930 career attempts, compared to Andre Miller who almost shot 400 each of the past two years, Rose who has 2 years less than Rondo has attempted, 626, and that is bound to go up this year. Westbrook, 913 attempts in two years, and 7 games, Harris the one with the most attempts per year, took a whopping 605 attempts in 69 games. I hope these players are all better perimeter and FT shooters, they rely so heavily on it. If Rondo shot these numbers we wouldnt even be able to talk about Chris Paul or Deron williams as the best PGs in the league since Rondo would be so much better than everyone that we would see rondo vs oscar robinson statistics instead of Lebron vs Oscar. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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KOFgokuon
United States14911 Posts
almost to a 30/30 game with 2 minutes left | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
Rudy Fernandez playing well vs OKC but damn Durant is rolling now | ||
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
On November 13 2010 12:24 KOFgokuon wrote: Kevin Love is a BEAST almost to a 30/30 game with 2 minutes left He... did it. Crazy stat line, did not see the game though. | ||
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a176
Canada6688 Posts
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XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
On November 13 2010 09:17 Holcan wrote: You grabbed 3 scoring PGs and said they have a higher perimeter FG% than rondo, well i would hope so, their team relies specifically on them at the guard position to score for them. Rose, most important aspect to Chicagos offense and their best guard, Westbrook, most important aspect to Thunders offense, and their best guard, Harris the best guard on the team. I certainly would hope that these three players have a better perimeter game than rondo, because they need it just to compete with the other facets of game that Rondo is able to bring his team. I used to cringe at Rondo taking jump shots, but now i invite it, he has developed there, is it as deadly as steve nash? no one is, but it certainly makes teams pay on the defensive end for trying to sag off him. Just wait for more than 8 games to be played, Rondo will show you that he can fill it up just like the best of them (okay maybe not that good), not to mention sagging off him, as mentioned in this thread already, gives him that space to just blow by you, unless the clock is running out of time he will force the situation and make you pay for letting him get full speed while defenders pick their asses. It seems that somewhere in there you are acknowledging that Rondo cannot complete with the other elite PGs when it comes to scoring. Like you said, that isn't necessarily a slight against Rondo since that's not his role on the Celtics and because of his strengths elsewhere, but the fact remains that Rondo has a facet of his game that is very limited as compared to other good-to-elite PGs. The point of that is that his skillset is quite unique and specific for a PG, and that, as a result, his game would not translate well to every team since he is such a non-traditional PG. You have claimed that his level of play would work no matter what team he plays on, but I argue that his offensive limitations, significant as they are, bring a lot of doubt into that statement. Most teams can't afford to have their PG be a non-threat from the perimeter and shoot so poorly from the FT line. Boston can, and more power to Rondo for it. The circumstances for leaving are simple, he was a third string PG, and he didnt want to be a third string PG. He spends at least 7 months of basketball every year for the past 3 years, as well as making it deep into the playoffs every year, if he wants to step back from playing all summer for a team he wont see an minutes on to spend time with his family, i think he deserves a little bit more respect than random uninformed people claiming that he was cut. In fact ill take it a step higher and say that Rondo should be applauded for his responsible decision of assessing the situation and making the correct judgement in what needed to be done, instead of bashed by uninformed fans for failing to play limited minutes, thousands of miles away from home, for no pay in a tournament that USA dominated anyways. I'm reading a lot of your personal opinion, but very little actual facts. Like I said, the fact is that none of us know for sure why Rondo ultimately did not end up on Team USA this past summer. Your theory is that he chose to withdraw on his own decision, and that he would definitely have been on the team but for that decision. While it's possible, there's evidence that that was not the case. There was a lot of talk throughout the Team USA tryouts by observers that there were serious concerns about whether Rondo's game would translate to international ball, and mesh with the rest of the roster they had. Add in the fact that Rondo only "chose" to "withdraw" from contention for a spot on the roster after having ridden the pine on an exhibition game, and it looks like he backed out because he knew he wasn't going to make the cut. Is it definite? No. But neither is your theory (and that's all it is) about how he magnanimously backed out so he could spend time with his family and because he was too good to play 3rd string on Team USA. My argument on matchups was specifically for Rondo vs Eastern conference teams like Cleveland and Miami last year who had to place Dwayne and Lebron on Rondo just stop him, then having Williams or Chalmers on Ray for him to just shoot over. This is more responsible for his inflated assist statistic than his players being premier perimiter shooters, not to mention if he didnt draw defenders as well as he did Glen Davis wouldnt even be mentioned as a decent player, Davis owes his career to Rondo drawing defenders and allowing him to get layups, if perkins actually had hands that could grab a basketball passed to him than he would be a top 5 center in the league with how much opportunity he could be presented with. This all may very well be true, but there again remain very few actual facts or statistics to back up your arguments. From looking at the offensive performance statistics for Ray Allen and Glen Davis when playing with Rondo and when playing with other PGs on the floor, there doesn't appear to be a signficant difference (per 82games.com). The sample sizes will obviously be smaller since Rondo is on the floor so much, but there is still some evidence that your argument about Rondo playing such a huge part of Ray and Davis' success doesn't hold water. A lot of the good looks Ray and Glen get come from a well-run offense and having great offensive players to open up opportunities (i.e. Pierce, Ray and KG). Rondo doesnt even get to the line enough for FT to be a factor, 930 career attempts, compared to Andre Miller who almost shot 400 each of the past two years, Rose who has 2 years less than Rondo has attempted, 626, and that is bound to go up this year. Westbrook, 913 attempts in two years, and 7 games, Harris the one with the most attempts per year, took a whopping 605 attempts in 69 games. I hope these players are all better perimeter and FT shooters, they rely so heavily on it. If Rondo shot these numbers we wouldnt even be able to talk about Chris Paul or Deron williams as the best PGs in the league since Rondo would be so much better than everyone that we would see rondo vs oscar robinson statistics instead of Lebron vs Oscar. Rondo's lack of FTA is good in that it minimizes the impact of his terrible FT shooting, but it also shows how his poor shooting negatively impacts him and his team on the offensive end. Getting to the line and drawing fouls on opponents is of great benefit to teams, and makes up a significant part of a guard's contribution to their team nowadays in the world of no handchecks. Other players as quick as Rondo are exploiting that speed advantage and getting easy points at the FT line while also putting opponents in foul trouble. Rondo's fear of his own poor FT shooting limits his aggressiveness on offense and leads to a lack of aggressiveness in clutch situations, which has been mentioned many teams by commentators in the playoffs. The fact that all of his peers are solid-to-great FT shooters just serves to show how significant a disparity there is with Rondo in that area, and how it takes away something that most teams expect from their PGs. Look, the bottom line is that I agree with you that Rondo is a great PG who is very responsible for Boston's success over the past few seasons. It's undeniable that he has improved by leaps and bounds, and that he deservedly has made many people to change the "Big 3" to the "Big 4". HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that the significant faults to his game no longer exist or are not detrimental to his performance as a PG. It also doesn't mean that we should all ignore that Rondo happens to be on a team where he is perfectly suited to playing PG and his weaknesses are masked, a situation that is uncommon around the league. Rondo is very unique as far as PGs go because of his skillset and weaknesses, which is good for his particular team, but which makes him unorthodox and thus not fit into traditional situations (including Team USA and international basketball). I'm not trying to argue that Rondo's not great, just that he's not as infallible as you're making him out to be. | ||
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On November 13 2010 08:26 crazeman wrote: I love hollinger but my insider subscription ran out last week Waiting for a deal to hit to renew my insider account.I've only seen like 2 heat games so far but I'm not that impressed with their offense yet. It's a lot of 1 on 5 (IE Cleveland basketball from last year) only now Wade and James take turns doing it. Why would you love Hollinger? He is worse for basketball than Charlie Villanueva. Now I'm not exaggerating, his work is truly awful and is a mockery of statistics which is a mockery of real math. He produces negative value. Do Hollinger fans understand the significance of PER? Because there is none. It's the statistical equivalent of a KFC chicken bowl. You take a bunch of empty, artificially inflated stuff and cram them all together to create an average of empty, artificial stuff that's all weighted differently. The KFC chicken bowl maker adds a cup of cheesy for every cup of mashed potatoes. Why? No one knows. Does it make the bowl taste better (more accurate)? Fuck no. Also Rondo had room to shoot all night during the Miami game. I know he's into inflating his assists and all (sometimes to the detriment of the team) these days, but they were begging him to shoot and it wasn't pretty when he did. It really will become a liability in the playoffs when Ray Allen forgets his metamucil. They destroyed the Heat anyways, for the most part, but that would've been lights out if he had a shot to back up the rest of his team. Just imagine if he had a legit 35% 3pt shot (this year's 40 doens't count when he's taking less than 1 per game.) I bet you'd wet yourself, Ace. | ||
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unknown.sam
Philippines2701 Posts
just made a bet with a friend. i bet the heat wouldn't reach 60+ wins this season and he thought otherwise. | ||
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igotmyown
United States4291 Posts
On November 13 2010 17:56 Jibba wrote: Why would you love Hollinger? He is worse for basketball than Charlie Villanueva. Now I'm not exaggerating, his work is truly awful and is a mockery of statistics which is a mockery of real math. He produces negative value. Do Hollinger fans understand the significance of PER? Because there is none. It's the statistical equivalent of a KFC chicken bowl. You take a bunch of empty, artificially inflated stuff and cram them all together to create an average of empty, artificial stuff that's all weighted differently. The KFC chicken bowl maker adds a cup of cheesy for every cup of mashed potatoes. Why? No one knows. Does it make the bowl taste better (more accurate)? Fuck no. I really don't like these sort of red herring arguments, so let's make it more substantial, more objective. In the following I'm not criticizing your argument, I'm just trying to clarify it. I'm not doing one of those ridiculous line by line internet refutatations. his work is truly awful and is a mockery of statistics which is a mockery of real math Presumably this suggests the rest will tell us how it is misusing/mocking statistics. Mockery of real math is just a potshot of a non sequitur. He produces negative value. Basically reinforcing the first quote Do Hollinger fans understand the significance of PER? Aggressive potshot at whoever supports it. Argument equivalent of a smear campaign, and distracts from the main argument. Because there is none. If this is false, this is grandstanding, if it's true, it's pointing out that's he's a freud. So let's check it out + Show Spoiler [wikipedia entry] + Introduction PER strives to measure a player's per-minute performance, while adjusting for pace. A league-average PER is always 15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across seasons. PER takes into account positive accomplishments, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones, such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis so that, for example, substitutes can be compared with starters in playing time debates. It is also adjusted for the team's pace. In the end, one number sums up the players' statistical accomplishments for that season. [edit] PER's Relationship to Baseball "Sabermetrics" Hollinger's work has benefitted from the observations of Sabermetric baseball analysts, such as Bill James. One of the primary observations is that traditional counting statistics in baseball, like runs batted in and wins, are not reliable indicator's of a player's value. For example, runs batted in is highly dependent upon opportunities created by a player's teammates. PER extends this critique of counting statistics to basketball, noting that a player's opportunities to accumulate statistics is dependent upon the number of minutes he plays as well as the pace of the game. So it's a weighted summation of certain fields, scaled by pace and minutes. The reactionary argument is that doesn't mean anything! Certainly not intuitively, but are we rejecting all non-intuitive things? You can do so, but then you are no longer qualified to criticize anything in that realm. But there's a more interesting issue, and it has to do with the term weighted, and I'll give other people a chance to flesh it out/defend it. It's the statistical equivalent of a KFC chicken bowl. You take a bunch of empty, artificially inflated stuff and cram them all together to create an average of empty, artificial stuff that's all weighted differently. This reinforces my earlier conclusion, Jibba rejects non intuitive concepts, hence the words empty, artificial, inflated, cram. Now as an aside this could be a criticism of statistical models vs scientific models, but rejecting non intuitive beliefs ends up rejecting most scientific concepts. Now there is a problem with statistics, that most of its models are linearly independent factor weighting, so it can't come up with something like PV=nRT through regression analysis, but that doesn't seem to be in the scope of the argument. The KFC chicken bowl maker adds a cup of cheesy for every cup of mashed potatoes. Why? No one knows. Does it make the bowl taste better (more accurate)? Fuck no. Now this contradicts my previous conclusion, why would someone who dislikes non intuitive concepts care about accuracy? So did I capture the main argument? Or is there something else, because disliking non intuitive concepts is very uninteresting | ||
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Doraemon
Australia14949 Posts
did you guys see griffins near dunk? that was freaken massive, the dude has some mad hops. and woo! rockets finally won a road game, but we still totally suck balls since we can't even play yao 24 minutes again == | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
You cannot summarize performance of a basketball player in a single output, and things that do (say video games) admit that they're subjective judgments. It's an individual assessment of a player's boxscore numbers; the baseball equivalent of an RBI. uPER = (1 / MP) * [ 3P + (2/3) * AST + (2 - factor * (team_AST / team_FG)) * FG + (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG))) - VOP * TOV - VOP * DRB% * (FGA - FG) - VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT) + VOP * (1 - DRB%) * (TRB - ORB) + VOP * DRB% * ORB + VOP * STL + VOP * DRB% * BLK - PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP) ] That is the PER formula. Can you explain the relevance of the formula and how it relates to basketball? VOP (value of possession) cannot even account for the most simple play in basketball, a pick and roll. The reason Sabermetrics partially works in baseball is that it's essentially a 1 on 1 game with very few moving parts. So what is the value of Hollinger's numbers? Are they an accurate predictor of future performance? Absolutely not. I believe it was last year when Cleveland was significantly better than the Lakers under his formula because of the margin of victory crap, and we'll see the same thing this year with the Heat. It's pretty easy to see why his power ranking formula has little value. Can it probably give you the top 5 teams in the league? Fine, but so does wins-losses. So what value does PER have? Is it in the results? I think it was 2 years ago when Lebron came up number 1, which I guess is ok, except you'd have the same outcome if you just added PTs + OREB + Assists, and there you have it the most "efficient" offensive player. The reason I say offensive player is because Hollinger claims to have an all around indicator, except besides Steals (useless LOLIVERSON), DREB and Blocks, it doesn't do anything to measure defense. A couple years ago when the Celtics beat the Pistons in the playoffs, the Pistons had to continually switch Prince and Rip between Pierce and Allen. Rip was destroying Allen most of the series while Prince couldn't do anything to stop Pierce. That's because Rip was the best (and most underrated) on ball defender the Pistons. Now you can run Hollinger-esque numbers on Rip vs Tayshaun's defensive ability and you'd find Tayshaun comes out on top because the Pistons couldn't keep Tayshaun on Pierce anymore, so he got the easier assignment while Allen was ice cold. The problem is Rip was still the better defender and the combination of Rip/Pierce and Tayshaun/Allen led to better performance than Tayshaun/Pierce and Rip/Allen, even though Tayshaun is rated as a better defender. Back on point, I think that was also the same year where Kobe Bryant as like the 24th most efficient player in the game. So what is it that you think his numbers show? He makes money because he's taking a basic idea and computes a single number that can apparently illustrate what's happening on the court. Nevermind that the people who do improve the game based on stats (Daryl Morey is the obvious example) give out folders full of very specific statistical data and don't rely on anything resembling PER. In fact, he's done the exact opposite, which is why the good stats guys can lop praise on a Shane Battier or Bruce Bowen, and Clowninger has them in single digits. Like, do you realize that false metrics (this is like rudimentary econometrics) like his had a huge role in the financial melt down? It's the macroeconomy of a basketball player and their actions, and neither are particularly relevant to what's happening in real life. By the way, he first opened his original site over a decade ago and I don't think he's touched the formula since. He's just upgraded computers so he can calculate them faster. Not that basketball is easy to quantify in the first place, but sites like 82games give much more informative data sets that can actually be useful for measuring a player in a specific situation. Melding a bunch of slightly relevant crap together is EXACTLY, EXACTLY the same as the score screen in SC2 and BW. They're both doing the exact same thing and using arbitrary ratios to try and break down a complicated game into a single number. Last night in the Jazz-Hawks game I think there was a play where Bell or Price cut towards the basket and then curled to the corner to hit an open jumper, being fed by the magnificent DWill. Doris Burke pointed out that the reason he got open wasn't his speed or the pass, but because Millsap "ran into" aka held his defender for .5 sec as he ran through and that's what allowed the play to open up. How is any of that, or anything related to teammates, measured in PER? If you're jumping in passing lanes to get steals and leaving your man with open jumpers, that's going to improve your PER and make your team worse. If all 5 members of a team crash the boards their collective PER might go up, except then they're completely unable to run a fast break. Imagine if you did this in in the NFL, Darrelle Revis would be one of the worst players in the league. He has zero interceptions, 5 deflections and 15 tackles. Those numbers suck. Now can you tell me why an established shutdown corner puts up such terrible numbers? The same story applies in the NBA and there's a similar example for almost every single basic box score stat, and why they're irrelevant. | ||
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city42
1656 Posts
On November 13 2010 19:12 igotmyown wrote: Aggressive potshot at whoever supports it. Argument equivalent of a smear campaign, and distracts from the main argument. If this is false, this is grandstanding, if it's true, it's pointing out that's he's a freud. So let's check it out + Show Spoiler [wikipedia entry] + Introduction PER strives to measure a player's per-minute performance, while adjusting for pace. A league-average PER is always 15.00, which permits comparisons of player performance across seasons. PER takes into account positive accomplishments, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones, such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis so that, for example, substitutes can be compared with starters in playing time debates. It is also adjusted for the team's pace. In the end, one number sums up the players' statistical accomplishments for that season. [edit] PER's Relationship to Baseball "Sabermetrics" Hollinger's work has benefitted from the observations of Sabermetric baseball analysts, such as Bill James. One of the primary observations is that traditional counting statistics in baseball, like runs batted in and wins, are not reliable indicator's of a player's value. For example, runs batted in is highly dependent upon opportunities created by a player's teammates. PER extends this critique of counting statistics to basketball, noting that a player's opportunities to accumulate statistics is dependent upon the number of minutes he plays as well as the pace of the game. So it's a weighted summation of certain fields, scaled by pace and minutes. The reactionary argument is that doesn't mean anything! Certainly not intuitively, but are we rejecting all non-intuitive things? You can do so, but then you are no longer qualified to criticize anything in that realm. But there's a more interesting issue, and it has to do with the term weighted, and I'll give other people a chance to flesh it out/defend it. Why don't you give us your defense of PER? In the last thread you called it a useful statistic, then stopped posting altogether when I asked for a reason. I'll restate some of the issues with PER which I pointed out in previous threads: -First and foremost, PER is completely useless when it comes to comparing different seasons, no matter how much it adjusts for pace. For example, the three point line was introduced in 1980. What does this mean? Every 1980s NBA player grew up without it (college basketball didn't have it until 1986), so it was hardly used and percentages were really low. This doesn't mean that the players of today are better shooters than those 25 years ago, but PER rewards them for being born later. -PER measures per-minute performance, but this is impossible to begin with because different players play different minutes. There is absolutely no proof that a 20 mpg player would sustain his efficiency level if he were asked to play 35 mpg. PER also punishes those players who push themselves to 41-42 mpg for the sake of the team, since human beings inevitably get tired at some point and their efficiency suffers. -PER always favors frontcourt players. PER also always favors volume shooters. You strike me as a gifted statistician, so I shouldn't have to explain the reasons here. -PER accounts for exactly zero intangibles, which are at least 50% of the game. According to PER, Chris Bosh has been a substantially better player than Ray Allen over the last 5 years. Leadership, toughness, clutch play, taking charges, defensive communication...none of it is included. Sabermetrics in basketball is BAD, there's no other way to put it. | ||
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