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Vatican City State90 Posts
On October 22 2024 01:30 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2024 21:19 cheesehuehue wrote:
People complaining about ZvP imbalance are delusional.
1. First of all, it's only Soulkey "dominating" the matchup. If the matchup were truly imbalance, the other Zergs would be "dominating", too.
2. I lied. Actually, Soulkey is not dominating the matchup. Before today's match, Snow had a 67% win rate (8W/4L) against Soulkey since August 1st. And btw, Snow's win rate against Hero is 69% (9W/4L), 83% (5W/1L) against action, 48% against Jaedong (15W/16L), and 62.5% against Queen (5W/3L).
3. Snow just doesn't perform well offline. This has been known for a long time, why are people ignoring it?
Snow is 1-5 lifetime against Zergs in the bracket stage, typically only managing to beat lower tier Zergs. His PvZ is indeed just not very good, but you can't tell me looking at this performance that the matchup is remotely balanced at the pro level lol. Snow is fine offline. He's made back to back semifinals. I didn't know making semifinals in the top tournament in the world 2 years in a row, losing in your worst matchup both times against the best player in the world made you a choker. Who's the delusional one right now?
Seems like you have problems understanding what you read. Let me translate it for you:
1. I said Snow performs well online, and I cited his statistics online against each of the top 5 Zergs. Here, I summed them for you: During the last two months, his win rate against Zerg is 59% (42W/29L) online. Moreover, his win rate against Soulkey online is 62%*. That proves that Snow does not consistently get destroyed neither by Zergs in general nor by Soulkey in particular, as a lot of people were claiming. To say that Snow gets regularly destroyed by Zergs is simply false. Is there any fact or conclusion here that you disagree with?
2. I didn't say that Snow is a choker, I said he doesn't perform well offline, as in he underperforms with respect to what people expect from him given his win rate online. Will you tell me that you disagree with that statement? You said it yourself, and I quote you: "Snow is 1-5 lifetime against Zergs in the bracket stage, typically only managing to beat lower tier Zergs". Those stats are completely different than his online stats. So yes, he underperforms offline relative to his online performance.
* Note: I made a mistake in the original post, before the SSL match, he had 8W/5L against Soulkey, not 8W/4L as I said.
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PvZ is too affected by the hydra bust build and the zergling run by at the beginning of the game. There are countless games in ASL or any tournaments that you see a couple of lings slip past the wall and the game just goes downhill for P from there.
And before anyone call the "skill issue" card, remember when Flash's Protoss played Soma in ASL10 where Soma's first few Lings ran to the wrong base in the first place, turned back, and still slipped past the wall, destroying Flash's Nexus lol.
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On October 21 2024 21:19 cheesehuehue wrote:
People complaining about ZvP imbalance are delusional.
1. First of all, it's only Soulkey "dominating" the matchup. If the matchup were truly imbalance, the other Zergs would be "dominating", too.
2. I lied. Actually, Soulkey is not dominating the matchup. Before today's match, Snow had a 67% win rate (8W/4L) against Soulkey since August 1st. And btw, Snow's win rate against Hero is 69% (9W/4L), 83% (5W/1L) against action, 48% against Jaedong (15W/16L), and 62.5% against Queen (5W/3L).
3. Snow just doesn't perform well offline. This has been known for a long time, why are people ignoring it?
The problem with this post is you called people delusional about ZvP imbalance but your 3 points below didn't support that argument.
The notion that ZvP favors Zerg comes from (a) watching the gameplay, and is backed up by (b) the historical stats of the matchup. For 20 years! Your counter argument is based on the results of a handful of games of Snow from... August. He could be 100% against Zerg from August and your logic is still wrong.
Also, for a guy who once falsely lectured me about cherry picking, look what you just did here: cherry picking. Why from August? Because if you go back just 1 month the stats no longer fit your agenda (lol).
In addition, showing Snow's win rates vs Hero, Queen, Action, JD doesn't prove anything. He's the best Protoss by far. Of course he has a positive win rate / dominates against vs Hero (3rd best Zerg, doesn't perform online), Queen (struggling for a few years), Action (never top tier Zerg), and Jaedong (now not even Ro8 caliber). And notice how I said Hero is the 3rd best Zerg, because the 2nd best is still in the military.
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1. ZvP is and has always been slightly favored towards Zerg. Soulkey is pushing the precise buttons on the specific imbalances in the matchup harder than anyone else (lack of P scouting, early lings & hydras)
2. Soulkey is playing out of his mind. Championship's confidence matters a lot. He is dominating not only in his play but also strategically in his prep and BO selection
3. Snow was expected to lose but not this badly. He played poorly (reaction times on zealots vs. hydra busts were slow in nearly all games). He also made mechanical blunders in RO16 despite still winning. Perhaps being a new father or something else in his personal life has something to do with it.
All three are simultaneously true.
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On October 22 2024 03:09 Jaeyun wrote:
1. ZvP is and has always been slightly favored towards Zerg. Soulkey is pushing the precise buttons on the specific imbalances in the matchup harder than anyone else (lack of P scouting, early lings & hydras)
2. Soulkey is playing out of his mind. Championship's confidence matters a lot. He is dominating not only in his play but also strategically in his prep and BO selection
3. Snow was expected to lose but not this badly. He played poorly (reaction times on zealots vs. hydra busts were slow in nearly all games). He also made mechanical blunders in RO16 despite still winning. Perhaps being a new father or something else in his personal life has something to do with it.
All three are simultaneously true.
No for 1. PvT is slightly favoured for P. But TvZ and ZvP are visibly imbalanced matchups. All taken together, leads to very clear pattern in success, which is T>Z>>P, based on 20 years history.
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PvZ needs to revolutionized, unlearn all that we know and go back to the drawing board. Maybe aggressive 1base play to force them out of their comfort zone and drag them into the mid-game under your own conditions. I don't know, I don't even play toss, but sitting and making 10 cannons just to maybe not autolose to hydra bust again and again doesnt seem right.
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Vatican City State90 Posts
On October 22 2024 02:54 TMNT wrote:
The problem with this post is you called people delusional about ZvP imbalance but your 3 points below didn't support that argument.
The notion that ZvP favors Zerg comes from (a) watching the gameplay, and is backed up by (b) the historical stats of the matchup. For 20 years! Your counter argument is based on the results of a handful of games of Snow from... August. He could be 100% against Zerg from August and your logic is still wrong.
Also, for a guy who once falsely lectured me about cherry picking, look what you just did here: cherry picking. Why from August? Because if you go back just 1 month the stats no longer fit your agenda (lol).
And apparently, you still don't understand what cherry picking is.
First of all, the player's performance fluctuate over time. The "meta" and the map pool also change over time. Everyone knows that, including you. Snow's performance right now is not the same as in January, for instance, for whatever reason. Soulkey had a period where he destroyed every Terran between May and July, but since August, Light mopped the floor with him online, and he has been pretty much even with Royal. Pretending you don't know that setting a time frame is important only makes you a disservice, because it proves you don't really care about facts , you simply want to argue.You talk about historical data as if that supported your point. "Historical" data of KSL1-4 and ASL1-16 shows that the Z winrate in PvZ is close to 50% (51.5%, source: https://jackyvso.github.io/Starcraft/#Matchups). And yes, my previous post focused on Snow because it was his loss what prompted so many people to complain about the supposed matchup imbalance, and the same happened when he lost in ASL17.
Also, for a guy who once falsely lectured me about cherry picking, look what you just did here: cherry picking. Why from August? Because if you go back just 1 month the stats no longer fit your agenda (lol).
I'm disappointed to see that one lecture was not enough. So here is another one: Setting a time frame is part of defining a population about which you want to make generalizations.
And to add, what we are seeing is simply the same that happened with Flash. When one player performs much better than the rest, everyone complains about race imbalance. *Right now*, without Soulkey, zerg would look like the weakest race by far.
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Inspirational the way Soulkey is dominating the scene right now. We havent seen something like this post Jaedong. (More close is Queen with a back to back tho ) FlaSh is coming for Soulkey aswell.
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On October 21 2024 19:38 Rainalcar wrote:
Even if Snow didn't cancel cannons I give him 10% of winning, Z was already par in supply. It's a typical pvz loss due to protoss impossibility to scout. I repeat again, it is an imbalanced matchup.
The problem is Protosses hate maps like Tempest even though they are harder to hydra bust and gave balanced statistics. They just can't let go of being able to bully the Zerg after getting a big storm comp up
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On October 22 2024 03:23 King Fog wrote:
PvZ needs to revolutionized, unlearn all that we know and go back to the drawing board. Maybe aggressive 1base play to force them out of their comfort zone and drag them into the mid-game under your own conditions. I don't know, I don't even play toss, but sitting and making 10 cannons just to maybe not autolose to hydra bust again and again doesnt seem right.
One base is suicide, even when it is a surprise. Lings and hydras dominate anything toss can bring to field. Slow zealots are not good units
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On October 22 2024 03:48 cheesehuehue wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2024 02:54 TMNT wrote:
The problem with this post is you called people delusional about ZvP imbalance but your 3 points below didn't support that argument.
The notion that ZvP favors Zerg comes from (a) watching the gameplay, and is backed up by (b) the historical stats of the matchup. For 20 years! Your counter argument is based on the results of a handful of games of Snow from... August. He could be 100% against Zerg from August and your logic is still wrong.
Also, for a guy who once falsely lectured me about cherry picking, look what you just did here: cherry picking. Why from August? Because if you go back just 1 month the stats no longer fit your agenda (lol).
And apparently, you still don't understand what cherry picking is. First of all, the player's performance fluctuate over time. The "meta" and the map pool also change over time. Everyone knows that, including you. Snow's performance right now is not the same as in January, for instance, for whatever reason. Soulkey had a period where he destroyed every Terran between May and July, but since August, Light mopped the floor with him online, and he has been pretty much even with Royal. Pretending you don't know that setting a time frame is important only makes you a disservice, because it proves you don't really care about facts , you simply want to argue.You talk about historical data as if that supported your point. "Historical" data of KSL1-4 and ASL1-16 shows that the Z winrate in PvZ is close to 50% (51.5%, source: https://jackyvso.github.io/Starcraft/#Matchups). And yes, my previous post focused on Snow because it was his loss what prompted so many people to complain about the supposed matchup imbalance, and the same happened when he lost in ASL17. Show nested quote + Also, for a guy who once falsely lectured me about cherry picking, look what you just did here: cherry picking. Why from August? Because if you go back just 1 month the stats no longer fit your agenda (lol). I'm disappointed to see that one lecture was not enough. So here is another one: Setting a time frame is part of defining a population about which you want to make generalizations. And to add, what we are seeing is simply the same that happened with Flash. When one player performs much better than the rest, everyone complains about race imbalance. *Right now*, without Soulkey, zerg would look like the weakest race by far.
That's so many words without ever justifying why you selected the "time frame" from August, when the two of them had 13 games, 6 of which were played on Pantheon alone lolololol.
Remember that your argument is "Soulkey is not dominating the matchup". To back that up you showed... Snow's win rate since August. Maybe check your IQ?
Here's a stat for you: since June, Soulkey is 71-37 (66%) against the top 6 Protosses (including today's results). In details: 57% vs Snow, 65% vs Bisu, 70% vs Mini, 70% vs Best, 62% vs Stork, 100% vs Rain. And why June? Because the new map pool came into play since June, not because the numbers would fit my agenda.
Also people have been calling ZvP imbalance for years, long before Soulkey won his first ASL, so I don't even know what your point is.
On an unrelated note, Zerg without Soulkey looks like the weakest race for sure. But that's also because Soma is in the military, Effort is in hiding maybe forever, and Larva is just fucking around.
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Honestly, that was just plain underwhelming by Snow. In this particular series we don't need to talk about ZvP balance. Even if protoss were to be the stronger race in this match up, it would still have been a sweep. This was easily the most one-sided series this season.
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Very subjective, but I think that Snow's weakness is preparation time.
As in, he seems to be doing fine vs zergs in ASL if he gets a few of them in a row.
If he gets no zergs on his way up and then suddenly a strong zerg appears, it has always been a one-sided bop, I think...
The reverse of e.g. not getting any terrans seems to be also true, maybe not to the point of always losing series, but the games don't look good.
Obviously that kind of thing affects everyone, but Snow seems to be more affected.
He looked mind broken in his decision making in the last games.
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As for the other semi-finals, my guess is
If Sharp wins the first two games, it means the series is already over.
If Rain wins the first two games, it means absolutely nothing.
Prolly Sharp in 7.
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Worst Semis of ASL/SSL history? This was just sad 
I have Sharp over Rain tomorrow, hope that series is not as one sided as this.
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Rain is, in my opinion, the most entertaining guy in a bo5//7 series. He will certainly cheese one game, maxgreed one game, come up with some prepared build he practiced against computer offline (iirc) , etc.
Cant wait
*May be Rain played secretly with Flash also. Hes probably ready even if he wont say it 
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Looking back, I think Snow never won a Bo5 or Bo7 in ASL against a Tier 1 zerg. If Snow wants to win SSL he hardly needs to avoid Tier 1 zergs. That was not the case for Mini or Rain
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Soulkey looked untouchable and well prepared. There was greedy stuff, aggressive builds, some cheese, basically everything mixed in.
In particular, the 3hatch/no pool/ramp block in game 1, while Snow went for cannon before nexus got him sooo far ahead.
In game 4, the drone extractor trick in the center to mine twice and open up the entrance was also pretty sweet.
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Crazy that SK is now 8-1 against Light and Snow in the bracket phase. Made two S class guys look like practice partners.
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EPT
