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My current suspect list is
Protactinium
Chaoser
DrHelevetica
Chaoser gets added because he was sheeping behind some really bad ideas, adding to the flames of arguments that shouldn't have ever started, and acting generally scummy. I have no analysis yet, so it still a lowish level read, but it's still a read.
Oddly enough, GMarshal has not shown himself to be clearly townie to me, and I'm not sure why. It just seems like he could be repeating his townie meta, or it could just be that I'm really used to it being super obvious that he is town. Not a FoS yet, but something that I think is odd.
He usually has plans, and that's strangely missing. You'd think that he'd have them since he's running for mayor. Odd.
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On April 11 2011 07:39 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 07:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:34 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:29 The_Roist wrote:
Other notes: My mafia.txt is filling up rather fast, you guys are kind of rude but it makes for an interesting game so I don't mind too much. but its maybe not the best first impression on real first timers... THIS DR.H. THIS is what I was talking about. I don't care if you have a plan. We are already looking at a huge inactives list. Thank god we have a few replacements, but for the love of the TLMafia community, stop being so negative! i'll kill your entire fucking family j/k I know that. I think I've done about as much damage as I can at this point so I'll slink into the shadows and try to play cool now. i like to shit it up on day 1 to see how people react so I get a better idea of where everyone really stands. The more unreasonable I get, the more unreasonable the mafia gets, but I think now is a good time to cut the act. Thanks! + Show Spoiler +I retract that if you continue
I still think you're mafia by the way. This is by no means me kowtowing to you, but this aggressive behavior is no longer working in my favor and I'm sure the mafia have already caught on to what I'm trying to do.
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I think i have decided that the safe bet is too put gmarshal in their.
##Vote Gmarshal for mayor
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On April 11 2011 07:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 07:39 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:34 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:29 The_Roist wrote:
Other notes: My mafia.txt is filling up rather fast, you guys are kind of rude but it makes for an interesting game so I don't mind too much. but its maybe not the best first impression on real first timers... THIS DR.H. THIS is what I was talking about. I don't care if you have a plan. We are already looking at a huge inactives list. Thank god we have a few replacements, but for the love of the TLMafia community, stop being so negative! i'll kill your entire fucking family j/k I know that. I think I've done about as much damage as I can at this point so I'll slink into the shadows and try to play cool now. i like to shit it up on day 1 to see how people react so I get a better idea of where everyone really stands. The more unreasonable I get, the more unreasonable the mafia gets, but I think now is a good time to cut the act. Thanks! + Show Spoiler +I retract that if you continue I still think you're mafia by the way. This is by no means me kowtowing to you, but this aggressive behavior is no longer working in my favor and I'm sure the mafia have already caught on to what I'm trying to do.
So you pressured me all that time, spammed that much, and still didn't get a read on me? W/e. If you're done with the agressive behavior, I'm done yelling at you for it.
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On April 11 2011 07:49 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 07:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:39 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:34 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:29 The_Roist wrote:
Other notes: My mafia.txt is filling up rather fast, you guys are kind of rude but it makes for an interesting game so I don't mind too much. but its maybe not the best first impression on real first timers... THIS DR.H. THIS is what I was talking about. I don't care if you have a plan. We are already looking at a huge inactives list. Thank god we have a few replacements, but for the love of the TLMafia community, stop being so negative! i'll kill your entire fucking family j/k I know that. I think I've done about as much damage as I can at this point so I'll slink into the shadows and try to play cool now. i like to shit it up on day 1 to see how people react so I get a better idea of where everyone really stands. The more unreasonable I get, the more unreasonable the mafia gets, but I think now is a good time to cut the act. Thanks! + Show Spoiler +I retract that if you continue I still think you're mafia by the way. This is by no means me kowtowing to you, but this aggressive behavior is no longer working in my favor and I'm sure the mafia have already caught on to what I'm trying to do. So you pressured me all that time, spammed that much, and still didn't get a read on me? W/e. If you're done with the agressive behavior, I'm done yelling at you for it.
my read is mafia i had that read from the beginning
i got some other reads yet that i need to consider more wholly later though, it wasn't fruitless
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On April 11 2011 07:50 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 07:49 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:39 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:34 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:29 The_Roist wrote:
Other notes: My mafia.txt is filling up rather fast, you guys are kind of rude but it makes for an interesting game so I don't mind too much. but its maybe not the best first impression on real first timers... THIS DR.H. THIS is what I was talking about. I don't care if you have a plan. We are already looking at a huge inactives list. Thank god we have a few replacements, but for the love of the TLMafia community, stop being so negative! i'll kill your entire fucking family j/k I know that. I think I've done about as much damage as I can at this point so I'll slink into the shadows and try to play cool now. i like to shit it up on day 1 to see how people react so I get a better idea of where everyone really stands. The more unreasonable I get, the more unreasonable the mafia gets, but I think now is a good time to cut the act. Thanks! + Show Spoiler +I retract that if you continue I still think you're mafia by the way. This is by no means me kowtowing to you, but this aggressive behavior is no longer working in my favor and I'm sure the mafia have already caught on to what I'm trying to do. So you pressured me all that time, spammed that much, and still didn't get a read on me? W/e. If you're done with the agressive behavior, I'm done yelling at you for it. my read is mafia i had that read from the beginning i got some other reads yet that i need to consider more wholly later though, it wasn't fruitless
Lol, sorry I meant the right read.
Heh. that looks like I planned that now. w/e don't care.
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United States22154 Posts
On April 11 2011 07:46 Kavdragon wrote:
My current suspect list is
Protactinium
Chaoser
DrHelevetica
Chaoser gets added because he was sheeping behind some really bad ideas, adding to the flames of arguments that shouldn't have ever started, and acting generally scummy. I have no analysis yet, so it still a lowish level read, but it's still a read.
Oddly enough, GMarshal has not shown himself to be clearly townie to me, and I'm not sure why. It just seems like he could be repeating his townie meta, or it could just be that I'm really used to it being super obvious that he is town. Not a FoS yet, but something that I think is odd.
He usually has plans, and that's strangely missing. You'd think that he'd have them since he's running for mayor. Odd.
I'd have more plans, but this is a no PM game, with pretty standard roles, I thought my way in circles and most of the clever plans that occurred to me are pretty disruptive to the town, (and yes I toyed with a couple... interesting... ideas). Most of my "plans" this game are reduced to providing guidance to the blues using a limited list. I mean we could try my plan where every morning everyone provides results as if they were a watcher, a tracker and a DT, but I thought that mafia could probably use that to identify the roles so it was a poor idea.
Still, I'm happy you called me out on it, townies should immediatly call out their suspicions so that if they die we can go back and see "hey he thought GM was scum and died, lets look at GM more closely"
My only worry about you in power kav is that your 3rd party play in insane 2 was so good that Im afraid you could be scum and be getting away with it here.
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MiG Analysis
Postcount 8/863 Total (1 pregame post)
Experience Level: Newbie
On April 10 2011 12:04 Mig wrote:
Yea excited for the game to finally start!
This is my first time playing so I don't really think I have the experience to be able to tell which mayor candidates are the best at analysis or the best leader etc. So I am going to base my vote purely on who I think is the most likely to be town.
Nothing inherently wrong here: excited states he wants a protown mayor.
On April 10 2011 13:26 Mig wrote:
After all the other assassins are eliminated protactinium would just leave the game right? So if he managed to eliminate the other assassins early we could lose the chance to have a powerful town mayor for the rest of the game.
Still looking protown here, doesnt add anything that his first post doesn't.
On April 10 2011 14:25 Mig wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 13:59 Kavdragon wrote:
Oh man, Protact, you just made my day. That was brilliant, but not quite thought through enough.
The biggest problem, first and foremost, is that other assassins will be gunning for our body guards if you were Mayor/Pardoner. You may have two KP you are willing to lend us, but is it worth it if all the other assassins are going to be attacking townies because of it?
Another problem is that putting you in the position of Pardoner OR mayor would give you information about the bodyguards, something that would be quite valuable to the mafia. Since your win condition is not the same as our, I don't think that it would be wise for us to trust you with that information.
I loved the idea when I first read it, because I was thinking about how the assassins don't have a conflict of interest with the town, so it'd be great to get them working for us, but the problem becomes that we have to pick one of you to work with. That will set all the others against the town, and that counteracts the usefulness in a pretty big way. I do think making an assassin the mayor would turn the other assassins against the town but they are still extremely limited in what they can do since they only have 3 kills to use. But the 2nd point doesn't make any sense at all. What motive could the assassin possibly have to tell the mafia who the body guards were? The assassin would need to protect his bodyguards just as much as anyone. As long as his body guards are alive hes free to hunt the other assassins without there being any threat to his well being.
This first point should be stressed more, who cares if we elect an assassin sure that one is pro town BUT ALL THE REST OF THEM NEED TO KILL POSSIBLY TOWNIE BODYGUARDS TO GET HIM! And there will be crapshoots by the assassins which may hit either alignment but since townies outnumber scum by so much (as is balanced) the chances of them reducing our town count before we lose signifcantly more than we gain by the assassins is a great reason why Protact should not have BGs.
Im still not seeing the scuminess here.
On April 10 2011 14:42 Mig wrote:
It's definitely way too big of a risk to put an assassin as mayor so I think the main question is whether we should use the medics to protect him. Obviously prot would accept the medic proposal if he doesn't get elected because otherwise hes insta dead. Also it would be a way for the town to control him because if he ever refuses to use his powers the town can just not use the medics to protect him.
The problem with using the medics on prot would be A) it would give the assassins incentive to attack townies, similar to if he was mayor, also we don't know the role numbers. If we only have 1 medic and there are 3 assassins or 4 assassins and 2 medics then the assassins could still kill prot and our medics power would be wasted. Btw this is assuming we can stack medics if that's not possible someone can correct me.
Overall I think its too big of a risk to use the medics on prot and they would be better spent protecting the outspoken town members.
Adds on how medic protection on Prot would also be another reason to spray and pray and cause more blue sniping for assassins, this leaves reds to kill outspoken townies as well as assassins may handle their blue snipes for them.
On April 10 2011 14:48 Mig wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 14:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
good job saying nothing and repeating "pro-town" stuff other people said
fos I wasn't trying to repeat what others said I was typing the posts up at the same time. You can see my other post where I basically said the exact same thing as you went up at the same time. If my posts are just saying nothing then I don't have any defense against that haha. I am just adding points I thought were valid.
A wild DrH approaches!
MiG ran!
On April 10 2011 15:13 Mig wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 14:50 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
it's just shit everyone else said, sounds like you're regurgitating the points strong players have made to make yourself sound agreeable somehow. if you were typing up that small post at the same time we already went through all that then you're the worlds slowest typist I am really slow. Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 14:51 GMarshal wrote:
So, to counteract the fact that you have been adding little let me ask you a few little questions
Who is your #1 town read?
Not counting inactives, who is your number 1 scum read?
Who is your favorite Starcraft Player? #1 town read you- a lot of people vouched they could tell if you were mafia. If you were all mafia I don't think they would put themselves out there backing you because if you did end up being mafia it could be traced right back to all of them so I assume their opinions are genuine. #2 kavdragon but only because I didn't agree with his points about the assassin. I don't have any other real analysis. #3 for bw it was mondragon for sc2 jinro I guess I am playing pretty terribly so far regardless of what I am. All I can say is this is my first time playing and I was genuinely trying to help. As the game goes on and I learn I will provide better analysis.
Can't Escape!
He states his reason for regurgitating information is that he is slow. Im still of the mind that even if he is restating opinions of others at least hes posting SOMETHING. He's sheeping really hard along with town ---> Do note that this is not always a scumtell and while it can be used to base an arguement off of it really doesn't mean anything without other tells along with it.
HOWEVER he is also playing the n00b card alot and while it is true I want to see more of this analysis out of him before i truely call him all out scum.
His last post is correcting a misspelling of his name.
So:
Mig is:
Sheeping
Doesnt want an assassin in a position of power.
Wants a Town mayor (Don't we all?)
Stressing he is new.
I think hes more of a Newbie Sheeping Town than Scum
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On April 11 2011 07:52 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 07:50 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:49 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:39 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 11 2011 07:34 Kavdragon wrote:On April 11 2011 07:29 The_Roist wrote:
Other notes: My mafia.txt is filling up rather fast, you guys are kind of rude but it makes for an interesting game so I don't mind too much. but its maybe not the best first impression on real first timers... THIS DR.H. THIS is what I was talking about. I don't care if you have a plan. We are already looking at a huge inactives list. Thank god we have a few replacements, but for the love of the TLMafia community, stop being so negative! i'll kill your entire fucking family j/k I know that. I think I've done about as much damage as I can at this point so I'll slink into the shadows and try to play cool now. i like to shit it up on day 1 to see how people react so I get a better idea of where everyone really stands. The more unreasonable I get, the more unreasonable the mafia gets, but I think now is a good time to cut the act. Thanks! + Show Spoiler +I retract that if you continue I still think you're mafia by the way. This is by no means me kowtowing to you, but this aggressive behavior is no longer working in my favor and I'm sure the mafia have already caught on to what I'm trying to do. So you pressured me all that time, spammed that much, and still didn't get a read on me? W/e. If you're done with the agressive behavior, I'm done yelling at you for it. my read is mafia i had that read from the beginning i got some other reads yet that i need to consider more wholly later though, it wasn't fruitless Lol, sorry I meant the right read. Heh. that looks like I planned that now. w/e don't care.
i don't think anyone will have the balls to lynch you day 1, even i don't, i'll wait until day 2 to make my case on you unless your tune changes
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Chaoser gets added because he was sheeping behind some really bad ideas, adding to the flames of arguments that shouldn't have ever started, and acting generally scummy. I have no analysis yet, so it still a lowish level read, but it's still a read.
What arguments am I sheeping behind again? I'm pretty sure I've said most of the things before agreeing with someone else who has said something like what I said.
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Alright, so to all you newcomers out there, I hope you aren't skipping through all this spam so fast that you miss this post.
Firstly, this game is about having fun. To have fun you need to get at least a little invested in the game, and you're not going to invest anything in the game by not posting.
Post in the thread for a while. Post who you think is town and why, post who you think is mafia and why. Start giving some opinions, and you will become more interested in the game. The more interested you become the more you will participate, the funner it will become.
There has been a TON of spam so far, and there have been some rude comments. Both of these are not typical of TL Mafia (Although the last game did have a lot of spam too.) Don't worry about it. Everything in this thread is said like actors on a stage. Nothing is personal, and most people are a lot friendlier out of the thread.
So what are you waiting for? Jump in and start posting. As a warning, people don't like it when you post lists/opinions without explaining them. If you give no explinatitions, there's nothing backing up your argument, and it also makes it look like you're hiding something.
So just explain yourself and you won't have people breathing down your neck. =D GL all!
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On April 11 2011 07:46 Kavdragon wrote:
My current suspect list is
Protactinium
Chaoser
DrHelevetica
Chaoser gets added because he was sheeping behind some really bad ideas, adding to the flames of arguments that shouldn't have ever started, and acting generally scummy. I have no analysis yet, so it still a lowish level read, but it's still a read.
Oddly enough, GMarshal has not shown himself to be clearly townie to me, and I'm not sure why. It just seems like he could be repeating his townie meta, or it could just be that I'm really used to it being super obvious that he is town. Not a FoS yet, but something that I think is odd.
He usually has plans, and that's strangely missing. You'd think that he'd have them since he's running for mayor. Odd.
I think the support for GMarshal is a bit suspicious at the moment. Everyone seems to justify their vote for GMarshal on the basis that he is the most pro-town and that argument is thrown around alot. But it seems like alot of people are sheeping to his side without alot of justification for why. Personally, I think that Dr. H has been the most town to me because of his aggressive approach. I don't think any mafia would want to make that aggressive of a start at the beginning of a game - they'd rather appear more passive to the town. Would a mafia risk making that many contradictions at the beginning of a game?
Dr. H's accusations seem a bit erratic and scattergun and may cause trouble later down the road, in my opinion he is the most town out of all the candidates making him the safest choice for me.
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On April 11 2011 08:00 TranceStorm wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 07:46 Kavdragon wrote:
My current suspect list is
Protactinium
Chaoser
DrHelevetica
Chaoser gets added because he was sheeping behind some really bad ideas, adding to the flames of arguments that shouldn't have ever started, and acting generally scummy. I have no analysis yet, so it still a lowish level read, but it's still a read.
Oddly enough, GMarshal has not shown himself to be clearly townie to me, and I'm not sure why. It just seems like he could be repeating his townie meta, or it could just be that I'm really used to it being super obvious that he is town. Not a FoS yet, but something that I think is odd.
He usually has plans, and that's strangely missing. You'd think that he'd have them since he's running for mayor. Odd. I think the support for GMarshal is a bit suspicious at the moment. Everyone seems to justify their vote for GMarshal on the basis that he is the most pro-town and that argument is thrown around alot. But it seems like alot of people are sheeping to his side without alot of justification for why. Personally, I think that Dr. H has been the most town to me because of his aggressive approach. I don't think any mafia would want to make that aggressive of a start at the beginning of a game - they'd rather appear more passive to the town. Would a mafia risk making that many contradictions at the beginning of a game? Dr. H's accusations seem a bit erratic and scattergun and may cause trouble later down the road, in my opinion he is the most town out of all the candidates making him the safest choice for me.
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Okay, let's respond to people now. I highly doubt a good number of you who are just downvoting me have read my explanatory posts, considering many reasons have already been covered. I suppose I'll just rehash them.
On April 10 2011 21:17 Barundar wrote:I'm fine with having Protactinum as pardoner, if he will use his KP on targets decided by town a few days in, when we got a better read on who's red. For this to happen we lose the pardoner, which is a pretty useless role for town anyways, and gain vigi, a good trade in my opinion. Just remember Protactinum has a different win condition, so he won't win the game for us. Since he will only help us to the degree it serves his purpose, he will blow his KP on the assassins if they are silly enough to out themselves before we find mafia. But that is a small risk I'm willing to take. Since he obviously can't be our mayor, we should keep focus on our candidates: Chaoser, are you still running? I felt kinda off when you put a FoS on one of the only active new people. Kavdragon, I feel you need to put more effort into your campaign, you posted a lot during night 0, but seem to have gone more quiet around your own candidacy. GMarshal, you honestly want to lynch the most inactive player? That person is never going to be mafia. DrH, it seems like several people are suspicious of your alignment? From all the candidates, I'm interested in hearing how you think our pardoner should be used, the way you will be using your mayor role, and your current mafia reads. To town: it's us who decides who we want as mayor, so don't be shy to ask questions to the candidates, or write your opinions of them. Remember it's the silent ones that gets killed first! 
Pardoner is fine. I believe for most people, the stigma of "being number 1" as the Mayor is important to them, and as I've made clear, it doesn't matter which role I get. Actually, after sloughing through these ten-odd most recent pages, Pardoner is a better choice.
Why?
Here's the thing: Pardon has never before been used in an effective manner as to be beneficial for town in the history of TL Mafia. This game makes it slightly different: the elected roles know the identities of two (confirmed town) bodyguards. Those , along with a second specific group that I will explain below, would be the only people that should ever be pardoned. The second group in question is power roles checked by a confirmed Detective. However, this second group is much more prone to the "what if" syndrome. First off, confirming the DT is ridiculously tough in a non-PM game. Secondly, there's a Godfather out there. That's why the Pardon should only be used to save Bodyguards. Of course, that means that the noble guard in question will most likely be shot during the night, but that's an extra night of protection for the elected roles and technically a "wasted" KP for the Mafia, who otherwise wouldn't need to expend a bullet on the Pardoner. And I'm not even factoring in medics, whose protection is otherwise ersatz because it's very hard to know who to protect.
Pigeonholing this, the only thing Pardoner is good for is saving the Bodyguards temporarily from being killed by the town, which shouldn't happen if they are upstanding (as in, useful) members of the community. And that's how I would use the Pardoner role. I would save the bodyguards, both to keep townies that I needn't be shooting/checking alive and to further my own interests. Remember, this "alliance" made by voting me in is win-win. Because of the delineated role of the Pardon (to save the Bodyguard), as long as Mafia doesn't get the role, then it doesn't matter if somebody town aligned or a third party (me) gets it, since the focus on using the Pardon will be the same.
Another thing to consider: the powers of Pardoner and Mayor haven't changed, but the scope and size of the game has. Mayor still has the finite three votes, which, yes, will grow more useful over time, but if you compare the Mayor from XX to the one that will be getting elected now, the one in XX is more powerful simply because that was not
On April 11 2011 01:18 Barundar wrote:
Honestly Jackal, you want to leave our first lynch to be decided by a non-town player? We have a role in the pardoner that gives him the protection he needs to act as vigi for him, and pardoner is more of a mafia role than a town role anyways. He can have that, but mayor is too powerful to let a third party have.
I agree that it's great to have a non-scum player in office, but it's not irrelevant that Protactinum has a different win condition. For Protactinum to win, he needs to prolong the game untill he have killed all the other assassins. If town is too far ahead, it will be in his interest to slow us down, and vice verca when scum is ahead. Since he will work against us when we are ahead, he will not win the game for us, no matter how great an analyst he is.
I suppose my declaration above will mitigate this problem for now. Barundar, I can assure you that this game could go very, very quickly. I am very confident in making the statement that I'll be able to catch Mafia quickly, as I've been able to pin down teams in previous standard games very easily--you can confirm with people like BloodyC0bbler, Incognito, Ver, etc., to check that if you would like. The game won't be drawn out because of its size. With 40 people, assuming there are two vigilantes it still takes at least 6 full lynch cycles with perfect lynches to kill off a team of 8 Mafia--and there's no way we're going to make perfect lynches. This isn't TL Mafia V. With most games lasting only to the 6th or 7th day anyway, this game should last longer once Mafia start dying off early, but not too long since I'll be able to kill my competitors soon enough once the Mafia threat is lessened.
On April 11 2011 02:44 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 18:25 urashimakt wrote:On April 10 2011 17:02 Protactinium wrote:
Wait, not related to the game, but are you saying you're going to report me for smurfing?
Uh... I'm a staff member. I have several known smurfs running around. This is just for Mafia? Nope, it was just a joke from complaining about your face spam before the game started. Had no actual intention to report a well-known member for doing something that's not against any rules anywhere. Sorry, I suppose it was a little far out there. On April 10 2011 17:07 chaoser wrote:On April 10 2011 16:59 DropBear wrote:Hi everyone, just got home. First thing that struck me is how many people are running for mayor. On April 10 2011 16:02 Protactinium wrote:
Unless you actively lynch Assassins (who most likely are going to either keep quiet or try to act overly pro-town) or they are killed by Mafia, I don't complete my mission objective. I don't really care how long it takes: there are 40 people in this game with no extra Mafia KP and no hatters. Ladies and gents, this is why I am not voting for Protactinium. Should he be elected, the longer he stays in office the more desperate the other assassins will get. They have incentive to kill the bodyguards. What incentive does he have to do anything to help us? We're his shield. It's in his interest to stay til the end and the longer he stays in the more likely townies will die unnecessarily. I am much more comfortable voting for someone who is useful AND pro-town like chaoser or GMarshal. The back and forth between Kavdragon and DocH is suss and I don't trust either of them enough. I think it's been covered but assassins acting desperate won't help them win. They have incentive to kill bodyguards yes, but shooting indiscriminately into town isn't going to net them bodyguard kills. It's a 40 man game. They have 3 KP a piece, 1 of which has to be used on an assassin. So really they all have 2 KP apiece to use whichever way they feel like. Aside from hunting other assassins, you really think they're all going to be trying to kill bodyguards which they don't know who is? If anything they'll try to kill each other off first, hope mafia hits bodyguards and then when all the bodyguards are dead, shoot Prot. There's no reason for them to throw their KP away trying to kill BG when they don't know how they are. This. Assassins that are playing to win are not going to be a threat. Protactinium can't ally with with the Mafia if he can't talk to them, and by BrownBear's ruling so far he can't do that via PM. Being an assassin is still going to be a waiting game, they'll just have a target they can't hit until very late into the game. The ability to pardon grants him no power to reach his own win condition. It's true that we can't force him to hold to his word about using his 2 hammers and 1 rolecheck in our favor, but there's very little reason for him not to. He only needs 1 hammer to win his game. More importantly, if he's ingratiated to play as town while he sits around for days doing nothing then we gain the analysis of a veteran. I think it's worth it. Suppose you are an assassin. What gives you the best chance to hit the other assassins: a) Give up two of your kp to town and hope your 1/40 shot hits the other assassins b) Use all three kp to try and hit assassins This should be pretty obvious. He has little incentive to help town once he actually is elected. As mayor, he will lynch and vote against assassin suspects. Town does not want this. As pardoner, he will never pardon. Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 21:17 Barundar wrote:
From all the candidates, I'm interested in hearing how you think our pardoner should be used, the way you will be using your mayor role, and your current mafia reads. I'm still running too for pardoner. I think the role should be used for obvious bandwagons. Others are saying they will make the "tough" choice and save those who they have a feeling might be innocent. Instead, I will try to prevent innocents from receiving the most votes to by lynched in the first place. Seems like common sense. Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 23:16 Jackal58 wrote:
Protactinum as mayor pretty much guarantees scum don't get it. Any guarantee that scum doesn't hold those extra votes at end game is a win for town. No it doesn't. Protract could still be scum. For those who say that there is no way he would take that kind of risk, there are 8 scum. It could be a high risk, high reward kind of situation. Either way, as mayor he would not have the towns best intentions at mind, which is something you shouldn't be supporting. Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 23:21 Jackal58 wrote:
No voting thread yet??? Is Bum hosting this? The timing is all fucked up.
##VOTE: Protactinum for mayor
And I don't know how you guys think you're voting for a pardoner. Pardoner is the first loser in the mayor race. Stop voting for a pardoner cause you aren't voting for anybody. That race doesn't exist. Second most votes gets pardoner. I assume town is competent enough to manage to work it out. Wouldn't it make more sense to give it to someone to wants the role, rather than someone who loses trying to be mayor? Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 20:08 aidnai wrote:
Kita is definitely overreacting against Protact. Good DT check right there. Could you elaborate? I think I've been pretty pro-town so far. Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 20:26 aidnai wrote:
BTW kavdragon is a stupid day one lynch. He's a damn good liar, but if anybody had bothered to to behavioural analysis it should have been obvious he was not town last game -_-. He'll be active and a fairly easy read in another day or two.
Plus there's still like a dozen people that haven't even posted yet... This is a total flip in philosophy from pregame. Siblings sticking up for each other? I might have to keep an eye on you.
It may be overreacting, but this seems like perfect kita logic. I read every single post of PYP3 with excruciating detail, and let's not talk about how kitaman27 played... Cough cough shoot the pretty much confirmed townie that netted a ridiculous number of Mafia multiple times. While he's not being protown he's also not being very anti-town either. Honestly, those types of labels don't really work too well beyond blatant examples for the first day, before anything can be "proven".
On April 10 2011 17:21 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 17:11 chaoser wrote:On April 10 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:I forgot to highlight the bit saying unless you actively lynch assassins, he doesn't win. Basically, he wants us to lynch assassin's for him. On April 10 2011 16:06 kitaman27 wrote:On April 10 2011 16:02 Protactinium wrote:
I don't need to and I don't care to lynch other Assassins. I shoot them at night with my last bullet. I stopped reading here. The assassin, whose goal is the kill other assassins, is trying to tell us he doesn't want to lynch assassins. Good point by Kita. You are going to direct lynches at them, yes you are not. There is pretty blatant contradiction here. More thoughts to follow. He does win, he doesn't need to lynch assassins to win, he just needs them to all be dead. Whether that's from his own KP, mafia's KP or lynch, doesn't matter. The moment we think he's not playing "pro-town" we can lynch him. What's to stop him from blackmailing town with the identities of the bodyguards once we decide the time has come? Or maybe the identity of the medic/dt? He certainly wouldn't go down without a fight, plus that's a lynch we should be using on scum, not black. Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 17:11 chaoser wrote:
At least he brings two KP and a check to the table. He has no real reason to go against town. There's no way he'll win the assassin game by day 2, not even close. At most he'll win late game. I say we give him pardoner, use his sexy sexy brain and KP/check powers and profit. It'd then be in the mafia's best interest to take out black so that the assassin game can end early and Prot is whisked off. That's good for town cause then they need to focus on black, not green. Shooting scum does not further his win condition. If he shoots, its going to be because he thinks he is hitting an assassin. He brought up a good point earlier. If town wins, he loses. Why are you defending him so much?
Didn't I already say I was going to use my last bullet to shoot them? I have no reason to lynch them , since it doesn't matter whether they die during the day or night other than the fact that they'll be able to fire off a shot if they're not lynched--and that shot can still hit town, Mafia, or another Assassin. As to blackmailing the town with role reveal of blue roles "when the time has come", when is that time? As stated previously (and I'm not going to bother to respond to other people who have just yelled "and what if he turns on us!"), the most I can do to "screw the town over" is to give Mafia one extra day of life. But when "the time" is here, that extra day is completely useless. If the game were already at LYLO for the town, then I've already lost if I save Mafia. Isn't it obvious? Being elected means allying with the town completely. There's no way and no reason I would change 'allegiances', barring some ridiculous scenario that even I haven't planned for (not going to happen).
On April 10 2011 18:10 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Hello. I just got off my temp ban and had to read through 438967346 pages here.
For the mayor situation, it just seems so difficult to actually pick a good mayor at the beginning of the game. Everyone who's running seems like they have an equally valid reason for why people should vote for them. Hell, I probably would have run if I weren't temp banned.
My instincts tell me to vote for the flashy guy. Marshal seems like he would be a guy with a fancy looking suit based on the pretty pictures presented in his campaign post.
This is complete nonsense. Everyone, whether my platform is good or bad is irrelevant. It is completely different and you deliberately ignore this fact! No sir, you have an agenda. Flashy stuff should only be alluring to children--so give a real reason why you'd vote for him, instead of picking such a poor reason.
On April 10 2011 13:33 OriginalName wrote:
Well GMarshal you actually put forward an agreeable plan.
Lynching inactives LURKERS Great idea unless you have a really obvious and active scum day 1 (Which I would not discount with so many newbies).
My really base reads right now are GMarshal is town. Ive been on a scumteam with him he has more holes than swiss cheese.
However as a mayor I would like to know what his plans are after Day 1 as lets face it D1 lynch is a damn crapshoot 80% of the time and when I vote I want more long term goals and ideas in mind Im not amazing at reads however if people do put forward them I will take the time to look at their scum reads.
Another thing - one thing I picked up from a vet and I think we ought to start doing is analysing tge posts of those nightkilled. Imagine if we looked at GMs reads in insane 2 GF may have been outed faster creating a completely different game (ie Blacks wouldnt have made enough money for the names).
So there ##Vote Gmarshal and all dat jazz.
Coincidence? Two phantom garbage votes for Gmarshal, who perhaps coincidentally, has been one of my most voracious opponents. Keep in mind that this is the first post since the game started for both of them! Someone better keep an eye on these three. Yes, I see that GMarshal is playing "pro-town". But anybody can do that. Hell, I'm not town and I'm way more pro-town than any of you (sans the obvious blackness). If he's green or blue, then it's awesome for him to get the Mayoral role (if he can use it properly). Though I still have suspicions that he's black or red.
On April 10 2011 19:16 TranceStorm wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2011 18:25 urashimakt wrote:On April 10 2011 17:10 kitaman27 wrote:On April 10 2011 17:02 Protactinium wrote:
However, in essence of "playing the game" the optimal (though still not very good) strategy would be to ally with the Mafia. Obviously, if I lose the election, theres no way I can help town without dying. The game is just hours in and he is already threatening town. Well, seeing as Mafia can only PM Mafia and no one else is allowed to PM, I'd be super impressed if he managed to somehow backstab us by allying with the Mafia. There is always the possibility that he is a mafia pretending to be an assassin in order to win himself an elected position on the merits of the arguments he listed earlier. But I'm not particularly inclined to this view because as of right now because that strategy would be exceedingly risky at the very beginning of the game. If we were to elect Protactinium, at the very least, we would make sure that a clear non-mafia were elected for the time being. However, I am concerned about his commitment to being pro-town if elected. From his own admission, he says that: Show nested quote +Obviously, if I lose the election, theres no way I can help town without dying. Assassins aren't bulletproof nor do they have extra lives in this game, so if I try to be pro-town, mafia will just shoot me or roleblock me, nullifying me completely. Thats 100% certain death for me. This means that I'm forced to ally with the mafia. And that's relatively easy for me to do.
The terms are simple, they don't roleblock me or shoot me, and I don't analyze them or shoot them. Played correctly, Assassins aren't a huge threat to either Mafia or town, nor are they gamebreaking like a lategame SK. Of course, what should happen if he were to be elected, and both bodyguards were to die? The chances are slim of course, but the fact is that he could switch sides at critical moments (i.e. when he is one of the deciding votes between the mafia and town). In the early game, Protactinium would definitely be town-sided, but resulting changes to the circumstances of the game could radically change his allegiances. Oh and lastly, I don't think he would be able to 'ally with mafia' like he claims if he weren't elected since another assassin would take him out to further their own chances at victory. Like other people of reiterated, I would recommend that the pardoner would be the best position for Protactinium on the basis that an assassin would have little reason to ever pardon someone, but at the same time, we have a confirmed non-mafia who is able to give good analysis of player behavior and who will survive for the later stages of the game.
Having already responded to the "what if he changes sides" issue, I'm going to instead respond to the "what if both bodyguards die" question instead. Listen to me: whether or not I'm elected has very little consequence on the fate of the bodyguards. Consider this: if somebody town gets elected, then the bodyguards are safe beyond random shots. However, if a red gets elected (and looking at this scattered town it's very likely at this point), then the bodyguards are as good as dead. They may not die immediately, but they'll eventually go down when the Mafia decide it's time to pick off the other non-Mafia elected role--and let's not even think about if they get both elected roles. With me, you definitively know that those bodyguards won't be revealed to the eyes of the public, since that's just plain dumb to do so. Also, if both bodyguards die then I'm also screwed, since I'll be shot by an Assassin. I have every reason to want them alive, and them being dead doesn't increase the likelihood of me "switching sides at crucial moments".
On April 11 2011 03:39 urashimakt wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 03:31 Coagulation wrote:
what would be the incentive for an assassin to pardon ANYONE.. he would never do it.
every flip is viable to him.every flip gives him a chance of killing assassin. why would he stop a flip you guys are fucking insane. Can you direct me to a point in a game where a pardon was vital and game-changing? As far as I understand it, people are lynched because they're voted for. If you don't think someone should be lynched, don't vote for them. I'm wary of anyone ever using a pardon, so if we get someone who will never use it then I'm for that until someone can show me why it's not a plus. I'd rather not have a single player with the ability to say "You know what? No." If he feels a lynch is wrong, he should convince enough people of the same thing.
urashimakt made my point for me right here. People are thinking of these elected roles as all-powerful godsends, when in reality, they're not. In games without elections to oppose a voteswing/bandwagon one actually needed to have good reasons and solid conviction, as well as force of argumentation. Yet another reason why I'm better suited for Pardoner, since I've already defined the use of Pardon above.
On April 11 2011 04:05 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 03:59 chaoser wrote:
There's no way Prot is mafia btw. He says he has 2 KP and a check. He can't be roleblocked. He either does it or he doesn't. No way mafia would claim assassin to be sent into office only to be proven he can't do the things he says he can do. Mafia has 4 kp, they could probably afford to spend one on nights 2+3, and fake a DT check on night four. Also, protac has mentioned nothing of how he would use said KP. Depending on the chosen method, it would be either easier or harder for it to be a mafia fake. So we'd just get into a ton of WIFOM on days 3+4, over whether he hit vets or mediced targets or not. And that's only if we know his targets, or get to pick his targets, and still, town would be loath to lynch the mayor so early. protac, how would your KP be aimed?Are you notified if you're medic protected?
I told you: if elected, I am an invincible double-shot vigilante. How are vigilantes generally used? You kill people who are very predominantly Mafia, and that's what I'm going to do. Being that I have my own excellentlucky hunches to back up my analysis, as well as a Detective check, you can bet that I'll be shooting Mafia, and I'm going to obviously be calling out my shots. Vigilantes generally confirm themselves in other games by breadcrumbing shots, and I have no need for such subtlety.
Now, to the point of KP. Mafia has four KP, but how can they "afford" to spend one with me faking Assassin as Mafia? Do they just double stack on somebody, use it on the same target that I'm calling, or leave it alone? No matter what, that's good for the town. Stacking shots makes a person way more likely to be killed, but if the Mafia wanted to off somebody with Medic protection that's what they'd have to do anyway. Not to mention that somebody being killed while the Medic protected them means there's definitely a double shot. If they stack on somebody that nobody would protect, then they're just wasting their KP. If they choose to shoot the same target that I do, good for them. Reiterating what I said above, I'm shooting anti-town targets, predominantly Mafia at first then moving into Assassins later on. If hits overlap, traditionally Mafia takes precedence. Yet again, that's a waste of KP for them. And if they hit Veterans, then obviously the Vet speaks up like normal, saying he took a shot in the night.
Right there I spoke from my true vantage point, in which I'm the Assassin. Now, let's see what happens when I'm Mafia faking Assassin. My team has to waste a hit whenever I call my shots, and normally with towns calling vigilante shots, they're not going to be happy if a Detective has nailed a goon and is calling for me the "Assassin" to shoot him or her. We could risk doubling up--but that means that if we hit the wrong targets (somebody being protected or a Veteran), once the bodies wash up people will know that two shots were used as one. I can't fake being Mafia because we don't have any extra KP roles, and shooting the ones where we can dump our extra KP into by stacking means that town (or at least the people in question doing the protecting) will know. At the very best, if I'm Mafia we have to waste two shots and "fake" a Detective check that isn't even guaranteed.
In any case, the KP from Mafia can be accounted for through diligence. I can assure you they're not going to like losing 1-2 KP and having to "fake" a Detective check (still not sure where you're going with this--Mafia can always fake DT checks) which they're not even guaranteed to get correct in a game where somebody with a lot of killing power is going to be actively hunting them.
As for Assassins, they're going to shoot whoever they want to. That doesn't change whether or not I'm elected. Assassin KP is hard to keep track of, since they don't have to shoot either, but it also doesn't play into the "what if I'm Mafia" question.
Just to summarize this response up, my shots are vigilante shots, through and through. I have a brain, so obviously I may shoot at Mafia at night, but for the most part I can afford to play like a normal TL vigilante, waiting for a DT check or an overwhelming consensus before shooting.
This post is made in response to posts up to the beginning/middle of page 34, since I forgot to do so earlier on. Will continue on plowing through the rest of the pages now.
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On April 11 2011 07:52 GMarshal wrote:
My only worry about you in power kav is that your 3rd party play in insane 2 was so good that Im afraid you could be scum and be getting away with it here.
Aidnai was actually pretty spot on about my play. It wasn't that good, infact I knowingly followed all the patterns I had suspected that blacks would follow before the game started.
The reason I got away with is was that no one was analyzing. That was town's downfall the entire game. If anyone had bothered to analyse me it would have been obvious. Heck, I even gave the town a list of all the things that they needed to look for to find the rest of the scum team (including myself), and NO ONE bothered to check it.
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Sorry about that. I was going to ask TranceStorm if he would be more comfy if people voted GM because he was scummy.
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Dr. H's accusations seem a bit erratic and scattergun and may cause trouble later down the road, in my opinion he is the most town out of all the candidates making him the safest choice for me.
My reason for voting GM is that I want to keep DrH out of office for this exact reason.
Its not that hes a bad player or anything it's because hes fucking aggresive! The last thing we need is somebody who is mayor to make a last minute rash decision and lynches town. Especially when our original suspect turns out to be scum.
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On April 11 2011 08:06 Jackal58 wrote:
Sorry about that. I was going to ask TranceStorm if he would be more comfy if people voted GM because he was scummy.
Sorry, I don't fully understand your question. My argument isn't that any of the candidates are particularly scummy, my argument is that Dr. H is the least scummy to me because of the reasons that I had listed earlier and I wanted to hear more people explain their votes.
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On April 11 2011 07:29 Kavdragon wrote:As part of my plan to help newer people out, I present the first part of my guide to analysis. I was hoping to post this after i had finished the whole thing, but it would seem that we could use it already. Over the my past four games, I've had the opporunity to participate with scum teams twice. The experiance of being on a scum team was really helpful in identifying ways of finding scum, because I got to know how scum teams work; the challenges they are faced with, the reasons why scum still act scummy even though they know to avoid it, and so forth. Now that I'm not scum, I'd like to pass these things on. So without further ado, here's my two cents on scum. #1: Know your enemy:
If you want to figure out how to find scum, you have to see things from their perspective. When I first started playing mafia, I was confused how a scumtell would ever work. If there was such a thing as a scum tell, why wouldn't mafia just NOT do that thing? I didn't understand why mafia would NOT participate as much as the town, or why they would try to not contribute, while looking like they really are. Then I got on a scum team, and i figured it out: Scum tells are things that are extremely difficult to avoid even when you know about them.
When you are on a scum team, there are two key factors that alter your play: You are on a team, and you know who is scum. These are both things that you cannot avoid. Because of this, scum tells can be built off of them.
Because you are on a team, you will be talking to the other members of your team. This takes away a significant portion of your time, especially if you had team members that were as funny as mine were. Beginner scum players want to look like they are contributing because they are not good at hiding a lack of contribution yet, so they actually try to contribute. Unfortunately they don't have as much time to evaluate what is happening and what is the best plan for town at the moment. Because of this, they fall back on giving general advice, and give no real opinions on the current situation. Better/Veteran scum players actually try to look like they are contributing, but are really good at hiding the fact that they aren't. Activity can be increased to accommodated this, or excuses can be given for not contributing as much, so it can be somewhat unreliable, but it is still a good hint to work off of. (Especially when you are dealing with older players) The second difference between you and scum is that they know who is scum. Obvious, no? But it has implications that are ridiculously hard to shake. When you are scum, it's really, hard to form opinions on who looks scummy. I don't mean that it's hard to say "Incog looks scummy". I mean that it's hard to actually believe that someone looks/is scum, because you know that they aren't. This is compounded by the fact that you talking to your scum buddies when you otherwise would be going over people's posts trying to figure out who looks scummy.
To recap, the things you are looking for are a lack of contribution, and a lack of clear opinions (especially when it comes to the alignment of someone). What does this look like?
Well, the lack of contribution for new scum players will look like people posting a lot of one liners and other stuff that shows that they are there, but aren't actually contributing new ideas/opinions to the discussion. If there's a player that's just sitting around posting things like "I agree" or making non-committal statements about the situation, there's a large chance they are doing something else. It makes no sense for a townie to be around posting on the thread all day but not spending time to contribute. As players get better, the lack of contribution becomes harder to spot. Some will disguise it with relevant and helpful information. On the surface it looks like they are helping people out, but if the knowledge is common, then what have they helped with? Nothing. I'm not an advanced scum player by any means and I've not played with any, so I can't inform you as well as I'd like in this area, but ask foolishness if you have more questions. The lack of strong opinions of people is one of my favorite ways to hunt scum, because I know how hard it is to avoid it as scum. It usually manifests itself in contradiction, and will something like this: A player says that Qatol looks really scummy, and then a day later votes Qatol for mayor. When you are scum, you're thinking about what will be beneficial for your team, so you will support a lynch at one point, then forgot that you did, and say something contradictory later. A player says that they have a town read on someone, and then a while later they vote for their lynch without giving a reason for the change of mind. Contradictions like these are awesome when you catch them. Another one: Someone says that the mayor is overrated, and not that powerful, and proceeds to talk about nothing other than the mayor for the next day. The next section is on analysis and arguing/pushing for your target.
I agree.
No really though, this is decent advice. I think the biggest thing is that you know who's mafia and who's not; the best way to find mafia is to connect people - get one scum and get em all.
For me, as a scum it's been hard to paint someone else as scum - be wary of people who try to imply things, but don't go after them in a big way. All WIFOM of course, but scum like to stay under the radar, so watch out for people that do things like that. Also watch out for people that don't commit to anything. These are pretty good "scum tells" I think.
And in my experience, just because someone posts a lot, doesn't make them not scum. So unless you're a blue and have reason to, trust nobody!
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Apologies for not posting sooner, for some reason, I thought the game started later~ I'll catch up eventually... busy with school and stuff though >>
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On April 11 2011 07:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 07:32 M0nsterChef wrote:
I read the thread and made a vote based on who I think I deserves the role the most. Am I not allowed to vote? No, but it looks highly suspicious that you don't post any thoughts/opinions (or anything at all really) since the game has started, and then come in and vote. What are your thoughts on the current situation? Why do you like GMarshal the best for mayor? Why don't you like the other candidates?
Alright, so I made a really noob mistake of not posting a bunch before I make a vote. It's my first game here, and while I know that shouldn't be an excuse, it's the only one I can come up with.
Anyways, as for questions
What are your thoughts on the current situation?
Just reading the past pages of posts has made me realize I need to be more careful with what I post, and I should post more often.
Why do you like GMarshal the best for mayor?
-Seems to be more analyst oriented
-Is willing to consider the lynch of kavdragon
-Seems to be "Pro-town"
-Protactium seems to care too much about the assassin game.
-Pandain is trying to get Protactium to be mayor by making people support him through his dt reveal, I don't think this is smart.
Why don't you like the other candidates?
-Now that I voted for GMarshal , AirbladeOrange, RedFF say I should be lynched.
-Protactium has said he is not town.
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EPT
