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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline.
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Couldn't the mafia have just hit a vet?
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On February 17 2010 11:24 nemY wrote: Couldn't the mafia have just hit a vet?
I thought Ver was hit... at least he admitted it.
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Something no one is considering, and maybe I'm just over thinking things due to my technical background.. but can't the hole in the back of the house have been made first. Then the mafioso knocks on the door. Once the door is open, and the light between the door and that hole is blocked... let loose the guns.
At least.. last time I opened a door, when I didn't know who it was, I opened and stood to the side of the door. It's not until you're looking for something or have opened the door all the way that you are then standing broad center with it. And if you got a shotgun, it's a good thing to do.
So.. the hole is holding off some trigger due to ability to see from one side and the other.. then you can see.. then you can't.. activate trigger and fire?
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 17 2010 11:24 nemY wrote: Couldn't the mafia have just hit a vet? If mafia hit a vet, and Ver claimed the hit, that's a really dangerous ploy. Ver made no mention of being a Veteran, so I can only assume a medic blocked the hit.
To the medic: Please don't reveal yourself to anyone, not even to Ver.
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On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline.
The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects.
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me:
As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now.
And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings.
Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first.
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Hmm.. something else... how can we quite be linking day one and day two clues to a same person yet? Would incog really double clue someone without first doing a clue on every mafia member first?
That means we only have clues for 5 (day 2) + 4 (day 1) = 9 folks? Seems silly to link a set from day 2 to day 1 in such a manner.
And Caller... I'm trying not to be sexist against all you males, I'm sure you can do the same for me?
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On February 17 2010 11:33 Mystlord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: Show nested quote +As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first.
Wow.. so like.. uhh.. that whole "terrorizing by night and day" Mayor anyone? First he blunders and kills Emp, a townie... now blunders and kills another, Ace?
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On February 17 2010 11:33 Mystlord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: Show nested quote +As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first.
Ah... wings? Sorry I suppose, it really looks with her hand like she's casting the crystals away... I don't mean to pick on you, but either Incog is screwing you over, or you're red. There have been numerous moonlight references in the last kills, and I thought that the wish to terrorize in the day was because he couldn't, stuck at nighttime. And if you add in the fire kills (I know there's the gasoline to be explained) it still makes it really suspicious.
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On February 17 2010 11:28 Mystlord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 11:24 nemY wrote: Couldn't the mafia have just hit a vet? If mafia hit a vet, and Ver claimed the hit, that's a really dangerous ploy. Ver made no mention of being a Veteran, so I can only assume a medic blocked the hit. To the medic: Please don't reveal yourself to anyone, not even to Ver.
True, ppl are saying there's only X, Y, and Z options... there are a shit ton more of options though... Sorry but i'm terrible at clue/behavior analysis, but i'll try my best regardless in a little bit... going to eat dinner
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On February 17 2010 11:37 SugiuraMidori wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 11:33 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first. Wow.. so like.. uhh.. that whole "terrorizing by night and day" Mayor anyone? First he blunders and kills Emp, a townie... now blunders and kills another, Ace?
I don't think the clues can be related to behavior. Rather I think they're just about your profile/name/sig...
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i think you guys are doing this wrong. but the key word there is think. i'm making a few key assumptions so let me list it out right now.
Assumption 1: Incognito will not give clues on one person on back-to-back day posts. that means the fire clue for Ace's killer is not related to the two fire/flammable clues from page one (the oiled house and the thrown torch). this does not, however, mean that people with fire related profiles are any less suspicious. it just means that there is a higher chance that one of the fire clues pointed to that person.
Assumption 2: incognito has not changed the way he is doing clues that means he takes one (read: ONE) thing about a profile and makes a persona about it. read this for more information on what said persona is and how he tends to do it. that means that finding multiple things related to a clue on a single profile does not help your argument. we can safely assume that the persona won't be something too detailed (like that song of the sphinx thingy...). it also means that there is one persona per mafia so concentrate on identifying that persona and behavior or thematic elements associated with that persona.
taking these two assumptions into mind as you go clue analyzing should drastically approach the way you guys are doing this.
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On February 17 2010 11:37 SugiuraMidori wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 11:33 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote:On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote:On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis:
Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r]
Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game...
Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r]
Sneezing and white things reference
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first. Wow.. so like.. uhh.. that whole "terrorizing by night and day" Mayor anyone? First he blunders and kills Emp, a townie... now blunders and kills another, Ace? so yeah. this is ridiculous. and in my defense the blunder was slightly overplayed because everybody (including myself) overreacted. it doesn't make THAT much of a difference that i roleclaimed.
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United States2186 Posts
Important Rule: When someone dies, go back and analyze their posts.
The biggest problem we face as the town is burying of posts. This is why it is extremely important that we keep track of what the dead people said, who they accused, who they supported. After this post I will unearth some of the most important points brought up by each of the dead players in hopes that MAYBE they won't get hidden under garbage again.
In a previous game when I was mafia and camlito basically ravaged our team with a string of accurate clues hits, we immediately killed him and spammed a ton to cover up his posts so nobody would read them. In this game there is the additional element that people might be dying solely because one side thought they were mafia. Given that there were zero mafia hits, either everyone is just exceptionally bad at targeting mafia or several players were killed because they were viewed as a threat. I'm guessing it was a mix, but either way this task is important.
BC:
-Day 1 clues are basically useless to use as evidence. -Citizen and l10f have suspicious vote trains and blind from nowhere that need to be analyzed. -Ver is playing different than he normally does by pm'ing a lot more.
Suspects:
-Ver -Citizen -l10f
Ace:
-DoctorHelvetica shadowed L and tried to push Ace really hard while ignoring everything else. -L tried to force clues on him in a dumb way -Look at the low content posters -Bill Murray is likely to be mafia given the absurd amount he's been wrong; "trying to pull off the clueless role." -"Infundibulum should be protected"
Suspects:
-DoctorHelvetica -L -Bill Murray
Supports Infundibulum
[u]Fulgrim:[/u]
-DTs should roleclaim while medics must hide. -Analyzed voting patterns: big swing for citizen, then jumps off him. Votes on Ver, then some off him. -Believed Redtooth and Ace were part of the same family.
Suspects:
-Redtooth -Decaf -Meeple
-D3 -BC -Ace
Zato-1:
-Malongo's plan is useless -Believes several high profile posters are mafia while the majority are lurking. -Supports L and Redtooth's innocence
Suspects: -MasterDana (serious analysis given)
d3_crescentia:
-BG list should be made public so DTs can check and mafia can waste hits on them.
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i'll consider releasing BG list as night approaches.
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On February 17 2010 11:59 redtooth wrote: i'll consider releasing BG list as night approaches. oh you weren't saying that... you were quoting that other guy... oops.
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also, fulgrim didn't suspect me. he's one of the guys that sent me a PM saying "I know you aren't mafia". this is before my roleclaim though.
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United States2186 Posts
IMPORTANT DEAD POSTS
On February 16 2010 23:43 Zato-1 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 19:33 MasterDana wrote:On February 16 2010 14:40 Chezinu wrote: What does tredmasta, Phrujbaz, ohN, and MasterDana have in common?
They all abstain. They all ignored my pm's. They shall be on the mafia' hit list. lolwut. Abstained due to no real clear choice for presidency, and my question about how important a Mayor can be went unanswered, so I reverted to abstain. Pretty telling post, MasterDana. First time I see you posting something with substance since your candidacy. Also, pleading ignorance means you're either a very lazy townie, or mafia. Pleading ignorance is a very common mafia defense. Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 19:33 MasterDana wrote: Why did we lynch Empyrean? Going off of posting habits seems like a real stretch unless there's a hugggeeee difference. I haven't played any previous games, but reading Ver's post about Empyrean's posting habits didn't seem all that drastic. Different, of course, but enough to lynch? Not really. Alas, lynched anyways and a green lays dead. Was Ver wrong, or trying to mislead us? Regardless, I think most agree that Redtooth hanging Empyrean was a mistake for the Townies, if he is indeed supporting them. Here, you're trying to cast suspicion on both Ver and redtooth, with extremely weak argumentation. Mislead us into lynching a townie? Why would Ver want to do that, if he was mafia? Clearly, a mafia member would've preferred to lynch a mafia from the opposite team. Same goes for redtooth. So why make these weak accusations behind them? Because you're feeling the heat, and want to shift it to someone else. Again, this is scummy behavior; if you make a weak accusation, you're not only diverting attention from yourself and giving the appearance of someone who's contributing, you're also not committing to anything because the accusation is weak. Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 19:33 MasterDana wrote: Awkward collection of thoughts, but the point I'm trying to get across is that my faith in Redtooth as a pro-townie mayor is thin. Pardon the swear, but this couldn't be more half-assed. Trying to make yourself sound like the victim whose trust has been violated, who is ignorant of how he should vote and who expresses weak feelings of distrust like an injured deer... I don't buy it. What do you have to say for yourself, MasterDana?
On February 15 2010 11:33 Ace wrote: No Dr.H made a few very critical mistakes. In fact the first one was even thinking that me posting aggressively implies that I'm suspect. That's just wrong on so many levels because I tend to play aggressive majority of the time regardless of my role.
Then he tried to link myself and redtooth. In fact he's done this several times in an effort to say my death will imply information about him when we haven't even done anything that shows we are on the same side.
The most telling example I have is the trap I set. See I knew that regardless of what role L has, he'd attack me. In fact it's amusing that he does this all the time then people that complain about us arguing. Those people are actually my PRIME SUSPECTS because every time L and I argue a shitload of information seeps out. I'm sure L already has a list of these soon to be dead people lined up though.
The main part of my trap was seeing if anyone was going to shadow L. You know, loosely agree with some of his posts no matter how wrong they are and then try and implicate me. The mere fact that you propose lynching me on Day 1 based on CLUES is a telling point that you want to off me so bad. Even L stepped back for a second to re-asses but you kept on with the accusation.
However there was one other thing that tipped me over the edge. How is it possible that you are currently reading the thread, I'm not even posting and you want to lynch me and you skip Caller's post? That was probably the biggest piece of positive information in the last ~10 hours and you chose to ignore it.
You are definitely not pro-town. You're Mafia.
On February 16 2010 14:14 Ace wrote: So like I said, top Mafia suspect for now is L.
On February 17 2010 08:29 Ace wrote: Don't have much time, but Townies listen to Scamp and LucaWoj. Under NO circumstances should anyone reveal they are a medic. Those are our trump cards because whichever side is "winning" the shooutout can't be allowed to run wild.
Bill Murray you're actually one of my top 3 suspects now. No purely because of the spam, but because you've been wrong multiple times. Not even Amber[light] or Vivi57 have missed this many times in a single game. Feels as though you're trying to pull off the clueless role.
Redtooth Chezinu isn't a confirmed DT. Don't get why you are protecting him unless you feel he's the only credible pro-town player at the moment?
Also I forgot if it was you that made the "DTs can safely claim" post, and since I'm about to leave I can't check. But if anyone checks this information out and see that you made the argument, or supported it you're getting lynched tomorrow. That would show a huge contradiction in what you said and then your decision to protect Chezinu. Of course I hope that's not the case ^_^
I'll be playing for real from now on. Let's hope I don't die tonight ^_^
On February 14 2010 15:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 15:24 Zato-1 wrote:On February 14 2010 15:01 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: At this point, I'm all for citizen as mayor, last game he played extremely well, and he hasn't become involved in all of this Ace/Ver/L shaky clue analysis/finger pointing. Ver hasn't exactly been a major contributor to this latest galactic confrontation between Ace and L, iirc. I'd say redtooth and myself have been far more active in that regard- not that either of us is running for office. As to the elections, I'm undecided between I10f and L currently, though I'd seriously consider Ver if he presented a candidacy (which I believe he hasn't?). Ace doesn't seem to be accountable to anyone, and I've never played with citi.zen before. Chez... sorry man, promising to post exclusively coherent content is nice and all, but you should preach with the example rather than make promises. BloodyC0bbler's posts have inspired zero confidence in me so far... in fact, you had to look with a bloody magnifying glass to find any content in the post in which he announces his candidacy. Confidence is from ones following actions, not from random bickering. I10f has posted next to nothing for his candidacy yet is getting supporters? This is what makes one sketchy. He has votes, he has no platform past "i will lynch a previous red from another game" and bam he inspires confidence while hiding in the woodworks. All those who have so far fallen into support of him, or have voted for him are insanely suspect. Yes, my platform is next to nil, but what do you want me to do? Create a nice pretty strategy to get myself into office? Last time I did that, I got killed from the very town I was trying to lead. You can go back and read any of the games I have run, and yes i have presented a plan. But with the current setup of the game, my ideas aren't fool proof, or close to it. When I have that, I shall post it, or when I see obvious clues, I will post them as well. So yes, if you look at confidence, i currently see people bandwagon supporting and others trying to kill off veteran players on red herrings. If thats confidence, I am afraid for this town.
On February 15 2010 10:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I also advise everyone to look at the people voting for citi.zen closely. He has not been that active, and posted very little on reason on why he should be in office, and he is easily winning position for mayor at the moment. This is insanely suspect behaviour on the voters. Much like the blind support I10f got last night, this blind support is similarly interesting.
On February 17 2010 02:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: For anyone in the general know how, and medics feel free to not prot me. However, Ver has tried to guess my role, as well as actively pm people this game. Both are actions Ver rarely takes. Read earlier in the thread and you will find that he "RC'd" to BM. I will spend some time once ive showered going over his posts and analyzing him, but he is not as safe an option to prot any more than I am.
On February 16 2010 10:59 Fulgrim wrote: Fulgrim's user's guide to night 1: FOR MAFIA: Town (mafia do not hit): Caller (good albeit rare contributions, doubt there is red here) Dr.H (he has been posting alot, but in my opinion they've been good quality, I don't see why everyone is attacking him all the time) Chezinu (call me stupid, but I actually think he's the DT, he only roleclaimed in the thread until after I talked to him via pm)
Mafia (HIT THEM HARD)- Redtooth (see my post above, although you can't hit him because he got elected....) Ace (see my post above) decafchicken- (he's lurking just like he did last game when he was godfather, also voted for redtooth with little reason)
Suspicious people (possible hit): Meeple (election switching votes) d3_cresentia (I felt her posts were much higher quality last game when town, also ninja voted for redtooth) BC (points brought up previously about posting behavior)
retards- BM (if he isn't mafia, I don't know what to say) redtooth (even if you are medic, roleclaiming right before the election was over was a horrible move)
????????????- L (i have no clue about you) Ver
DT guide to checking people- Avoid role checking the vets with the most posts (Ace, Ver) because these guys have high chances of being godfathers, instead try to check the more active but less Vet players. I also reccomend checking Chezinu so we can know whether he is actually a DT or not, or checking other people on the town list.
Medics guide to protecting people- I would recommend protecting someone on the green list, and avoid people who might be mafia, use that thing in between your ears, and DONT roleclaim. Keep your role to yourself, you are in danger of being hit by mafia, and we will need you later in the game for sure, so don't screw up.
Vigi's save your kills for later nights
I heavily encourage you to go back and read the dead players posts. They died for a reason. They were not mafia and thus did not have any special information but they still might have said something that got them killed.
If anyone finds any other dead posts that you think should be preserved please post them asap. This is just my interpretation of what ones will be the most useful to read but I certainly might have missed some important ones.
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But Ver, I still ask, what about how you named several of the now-dead people in one of your suspect lists? What do you think happened.. mafia blindly followed you? You're on one of the mafia teams and your team followed you into the ashes and dragged the other team with you?
I'm curious on what you say about that
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