Mafia VIII [GG] - Page 86
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
Now, as for the current situation between MrBabyHands and 0cz3z. I'm leaning towards voting for MrBabyHands, though I'm not certain at all for now. My other vote will go to Vivi57. My reasoning for this is as follows: MrBabyHands: + Show Spoiler + 1. We know that MrBabyHands contacted L shortly before his death and that MrBabyHands claims some responsibility for the hit on Caller. Before the Day post even comes up, though, it seems like Caller knows that he's going to die. He doesn't care that he's been outed as Mafia at all. This means either one of two things happened: He got caught in a lie by somebody and caught wind of it or he was previously informed. He'd have to know or have reasoned out that Dreamflower's vigilante hit was switched at the last minute to him. Knowing that it wouldn't matter soon, L (or whoever was in communication with Caller) could have PMed him that information just beforehand, so it's still entirely possible that he just dropped all pretense for that reason. 2. MrBabyHands first claims that he has a lot of analysis to lay down for the town as to who is and isn't Mafia. Then, nearly ten and a half hours later (note how long it took), he posts up analysis of 0cz3c that, personally, seems very weak, somewhat forced, and is in no way conclusive. He says that the reason he's only doing 0cz3c right now is that he doesn't want town to get confused and split votes, which is legitimate for the moment. However, he also stated quite openly that he believes himself to always be 100% accurate in posting Mafia and, as such, will almost surely die tonight which means that full disclosure has to come at some point. The problem with the way things have played out is this: MrBabyHands hasn't been killed by Mafia yet, meaning that they don't know his accuracy from previous games (unlikely), that they didn't feel like he was a threat regardless (also seems unlikely), or that he is on Mafia's side. Frankly, given what has occurred in past games and what has occurred thus far in this game, the blue sniping and the silence during the Ace vs Ver debacle has me leaning towards his being Mafia, based on merits alone. That isn't all, though. With all of what were town's most prominent voices silenced, MrBabyHands suddenly shows up claiming to know all the answers to town's problems, and sends out PMs to people who he believes are blue for their cooperation. I feel that this may be a Mafia ploy, hoping to guide this double lynch into the ground, so as to cement their victory. To add to all of this, he has not responded to a PM I sent to him asking about the clues he had attached to Caller. May be innocuous, but for the moment it adds to the feeling that the analysis he has is being made up as he goes along this newest day. As it stands, MrBabyHands needs to provide me with more information before I'm willing to believe him. Most of my suspicion lies in the fact that his connection of 0cz3c seems tenuous to me and that he took so long to put up something when he claims to already have a lot of strong information. Now, for the sure vote from me. Vivi57: + Show Spoiler + I believe Vivi57 is Mafia A from Morning 1 and Morning 3. To illustrate why, let me just start with a picture of Vivi from Final Fantasy IX. Now look at the clues: Morning 1: Qatol turned to see what was happening when a voice spoke from behind him. “You no longer control this town. It is ours now.” Qatol turned to face this new threat, but was unable to locate the speaker. Suddenly, Qatol saw a blur as his assailant leapt at him, planting a knife in Qatol's chest. LTT's attacker came over and helped push Qatol into the water with the others. Morning 3: Two oddly mismatched men were sitting at a table, pounding the table with their fists. The larger man shouted again. "No one to seat us. No one to take our orders. How did they manage to get even half of a star? I am definitely not leaving a tip!" "Well, there is someone over there" noticed the smaller man. L recoiled from the piercing gaze... infundibulum let out a sigh of relief before realizing the smaller man's attention had never left him. "Well, if you aren't going to cook anything for us..." The smaller man snapped his fingers and infundibulum burst into flames. At first I assumed that the piercing gaze belonged to Mafia F, as he is still certainly the cause of L and Infundibulum's panics. However, upon rereading the morning post, I realized that it only made sense for the gaze to be coming from Mafia A, as he was the one who noted L's presence. Thus, Mafia F has an unusually strong gaze. Notice anything about Vivi's eyes? They are rather direct and I'm sure a stare from them would be quite disconcerting. What about his height? He's certainly a rather short man, which would explain Qatol not seeing him when he turned to face the voice, as well as why Mafia A needed help with pushing Qatol's body into the water. And just to fit it all together, the way Infundibulum dies ties everything up nicely. Vivi is a Black Mage in Final Fantasy IX, and thus uses magic to fight. Infundibulum bursts into flame upon Mafia A's finger snap, and I see nothing that fits this better than the explanation of magic. In summation: I do not urge anybody to vote one way or the other on the MBH vs 0cz3c issue currently, at least not until we hear more (that isn't just gloating and taunting) from MBH. I do urge everybody to vote for Vivi57. | ||
0cz3c
United States564 Posts
I'll have a reply to your clue analysis before 10:30 P.M Eastern Time. | ||
MTF
United States1739 Posts
On May 23 2009 10:07 0cz3c wrote: Behaviorally, he is not merely sketchy. He is the living, breathing representation of an obvious mafia. He's much more than sketchy. If you're not mafia, and, although my suspicions are that you are, please re-read his post again. It within itself is incredibly incriminating. And I suspect that Ace would have pounced upon it if he were still alive. I would consider you to be as experienced as Ace as a player; therefore, I can't understand your apparent, needless, and forgive me, stupid hesitation. I'll have a reply to your clue analysis before 10:30 P.M Eastern Time. I'm not sure who that was directed at, but if it was at me, then you're going to need to make a much better argument for his sure incrimination beyond "anybody that has a brain can see he's Mafia". It's that superior, non-conversational attitude that sees many peoples thoughts get ignored in this game. | ||
BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
man, I haven't addressed behavioural analysis at all day 3 as well, i got shot for it the last 2 days, so i left it alone in my own stuff. I can't link clues to you which would suggest innocence, but then bulldog people like ace did mafia 3 which comes off sketchy, although you are backing off, reducing that. Behaviourally your right, mbh is shifty and has alot of explaining to do to somehow free himself from death, then if you want for more shiftyness, kill one of the inactives, which is a heavy suspect. Out of those scaramanga plexa camlito are three names that stand out prominently, however, camlito is a verified green, so it would be plexa or scara. But as I'm not good at behavioural I'm not campaigning people to death on it. As a note to MTF, my only issue with your vivi link is that it seems too obvious, unless that was qatols intention | ||
0cz3c
United States564 Posts
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
On May 23 2009 10:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As a note to MTF, my only issue with your vivi link is that it seems too obvious, unless that was qatols intention Vivi has nothing in his profile to work with beyond his name, which itself links to a very few things. "It fits too well and surely can't be intentional" is an argument to be made when there is a fair amount of information to work with, but that doesn't seem applicable to me in this particular case. | ||
BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
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Malongo
Chile3468 Posts
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HeavOnEarth
United States7087 Posts
MTF wrote sometime: As it stands, MrBabyHands needs to provide me with more information before I'm willing to believe him yeah definitely but i'm sure he'll post it. because : On May 22 2009 13:54 L wrote: Also, MBH has been talking to me behind the scenes. He guessed my role correctly. His suspicion list is nearly Identical, in part, to my own. The key for the following night is going to be getting that detective information blended in with the clue analysis and behavioral analysis to confirm some solid theories people have about mafia. If I die, I sincerely hope you guys can keep it fucking civil and stick to the evidence in front of you. | ||
0cz3c
United States564 Posts
On May 23 2009 08:01 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Most clues, like most games, although don’t always use how a person was killed as a clue, they typically do so I will be concentrating on that for now. Day 1 “Chuiu toppled to the deck. LTT and Qatol picked up the bodies and threw them overboard into the shark-infested waters. They breathed a sigh of relief, but it was short lived. LTT turned just as something bowled into him, knocking him down into the now crimson waters. Qatol turned to see what was happening when a voice spoke from behind him.” Here we have first off, mafia bodies disposed of to ravenous sharks, then, ltt is bowled into the water which leads to his death as well. When it comes to this I believe the link could possibly be PLEXA Why you ask? If you google his signature “Spirit will set you free” it will bring you to a tl page here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=81492¤tpage=3 On that page has a picture of a shark, as well as a man with his hands outstretched, Upon closer consideration you see it’s a livecast match, between mbc and lecaf. That picture matchup is of shark vs jaedong, who has been nicknamed kitty for this instance. What do cats to when they attack someone, pounce or leap, and if they hit someone it could bowl them forward. Going with the style of cat clue as well, SCAMP has a cat in his profile (same sort of link of cat bowling people over) as well as his name meaning “1 : rascal, rogue 2 : an impish or playful young person” an impish or playful person or a rogue/rascal could fight someone by charging them and pushing them, as watching someone fall into water would be amusing to them. Now for death 2 day 1 “Qatol turned to face this new threat, but was unable to locate the speaker. Suddenly, Qatol saw a blur as his assailant leapt at him, planting a knife in Qatol's chest. LTT's attacker came over and helped push Qatol into the water with the others.” We see again the falling into the water (all bodies fed to sharks) which could refer to plexa but I doubt it. We have instead, someone who qatol couldn’t see, then lept out at him. This would seem to me that he would be either a small man, or invisible. As I doubt anyone is invisible iw ould go for a small man. For the most part. This could link to HEAVONEARTH as in his profile he has linked to his mybrute page. Mybrutes are small, tiny warriors, so leaping up into a taller qatol and killing him wouldn’t be so unexpected. As well, his specific brute has ability to run fast and charge, leaving a blurry trail behind him. MRBABYHANDS possibly as baby would imply small. Day 2 analysis “LucasWoJ was fully injected, but he could still hear the brutality even as he fled. The assailant bellowed again and started slamming the now empty syringe into LucasWoJ's face repeatedly until his face caved in and the only sounds left were guttural yells, the squishy impacts, and the sound of blood splatter. Come morning, there would be little above the neck that could identify LucasWoJ's corpse.” Day 3 post confirms this was caller. Next death “Meanwhile, the second intruder, initially transfixed by the brutal killing, suddenly remembered that there was another target and began the hunt. He climbed the stairs and poked his head into each of the bedrooms but couldn't find anyone. After passing the set of curtains with a conspicuous pair of shoes sticking out for the third time, he heard mikeymoo sneeze. He turned around and shot both feet, causing mikeymoo to fall from his hiding place. The man approached the writhing mikeymoo, dropped his gun, and grabbed one of his fingers. He slowly put pressure on it until it snapped and mikeymoo let out a scream that dwarfed any sounds he had made before. The attacker continued until he ran out of fingers upon which time he pulled out a knife and stabbed mikeymoo in the throat. As his life left him, mikeymoo chuckled at the absurdity of the knife solving the problem of his hoarse, sore throat.” This entire sequence has the feeling of a sense of surrealness. Someone who remembered there was another person to kill. So he went and looked into bedrooms, one at a time. Finds his target and attacks, first immobilizing them, then cruely torturing before the final kill. A link to this could be TRICODE quotation “1 2, he is coming for you” line which is a reference to freddy krugar. Who is a serial killer, who kills people. So one room at a time he persued his victim, till he found him, and slowly killed him. Many others have commented earlier how they thought this might point to dreamflower as it seemed to be like a dream, well, freddy killed people in dreams. Also connection to SCARAMANGA. As he stopped to observe the first attack before he moved on to his own victim. One of the people in profile referenced is kangmin, ie nal_ra who is currently a commentator in korea, hense he would stop to watch. He also has by.flash or young ho and Shine or sang won listed. Both of which are players who would pursue their opponent to the end, preventing them from being able to fight them again. Breaking of the fingers could symbolize the inability of mikeymoo to ever compete against them in their sport again? Weak link but exists Kill 3 “In a different part of town, Fishball was running for his life. His left arm was hanging uselessly at his side, the result of a blow from the man calmly following him. Fishball finally reached the tool shed behind his house. He started fumbling with the lock in an attempt to get the axe inside. He got the door open in time for a kick from his pursuer to knock him to the floor. Fishball coughed while the other man surveyed the inside of the shed. Having made his selection, the attacker grabbed one of the tools leaning against the inside of the shed and kneeled down next to Fishball. "This would have been a lot less painful for you if you had faced me like a man. You need to develop a stronger backbone; I am going to help you with that," quipped the hit man. He then shoved the rake in his hand into Fishball from behind, handle first, as far as he could. He left Fishball flailing on the ground, coming to terms with his newfound confidence but lacking the strength to do anything with it except die.” I would suggest that this links to REBIRTHOFLEGEND. He has a quotation of a ban by hot_bid “Reason: I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you want to troll, I can tell you I have no patience for that. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long moderation career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you stop the stupidity now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, in one week, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will ban you.” This would suggest to me that he is possibly red. As Fishball was sporting a limped arm, much like he ad been warned once before? Then because he didn’t learn, he is chased, and killed, and at the end makes it seem as if he learned the error of his ways. Day 3 First kill “"Well, if you aren't going to cook anything for us..." The smaller man snapped his fingers and infundibulum burst into flames.” Possible linkage to TRICODE, as freddy Krueger kills people in dreams by bursting them into flames. Possible link to HEAVONEARTH as of his tiny mybrute, and I know grenades are weapons in that game, REBIRTHOFLEGEND as in the sense of the poem he has it ends with explode, something could have burst and lit infundi on fire. Second kill “L hunched in the corner of the freezer, trying to make himself as small as possible. The banging on the freezer door was only interrupted by infundibulum's screams. The screams went from muffled to painfully loud as the larger man finally managed to solve the problem posed by the door. He quickly spotted L and started punching him repeatedly. Surprisingly, the blows didn't seem to hurt L as much as he had expected. With the hope of escape now flashing before him, L looked for something to ward off the attacker. He immediately noticed that infundibulum had clearly not defrosted the freezer in months. He was thankful. He broke off one of the icicles and tried to stab his attacker's face with it, but he couldn’t figure out exactly where to stab. L was trying to sort out his confusion when a blow from a blunt object crushed his head. L toppled to the floor. The larger man left the door ajar as he left, ensuring that the freezer would get its long overdue defrosting.” This fight reminds of a HEAVONEARTH, as well, mybrute character, runs in attacks and punches, hes smaller so his fists wouldn’t do the type of damage you would expect. Next, because of his size, you would have a harder time hitting him. The death could also link to TRICODE. This is because the death happened in 3 stages, the first two times fail, and the third succeeds. 1st time when L flees, second when his first hit fails to kill L, third time when he finishes L off just before he is stabbed by an icicle. This could point to him as well. Third kill was on caller by dreamflower, im assuming we can skip it. I would also note Last kill “Someone exited the hotel into the garden in time to see this struggle unfold. He charged towards the struggle and rammed into the plant. The jaws unclenched and Caller’s bones spilled to the ground. Letting out a cry, the would-be savior pulled on the stem until the plant was uprooted. He proceeded to trample dreamflower until only green goo remained.” Not entirely sure on this one. Some thoughts. "They breathed a sigh of relief, but it was short lived. LTT turned just as something bowled into him, knocking him down into the now crimson waters." Where do you see a cat-like description here? I'm missing it. I would hardly call the action "bowled" cat-like. Kinda strong for a cat-like person to simply knock a person down into the crimson waters. I think. For your second clue, did you consider that the person could be hiding? Is that not suggested in the reading? It doesn't seem like you've explored all possible options here. I don't even think that it has to link to someone who is small. It could be someone who's incredibly quick, who's evasive, who's hiding, essentially anyone who would not be in Qatol's line of sight. Saying "Day 2 analysis “LucasWoJ was fully injected, but he could still hear the brutality even as he fled. The assailant bellowed again and started slamming the now empty syringe into LucasWoJ's face repeatedly until his face caved in and the only sounds left were guttural yells, the squishy impacts, and the sound of blood splatter. Come morning, there would be little above the neck that could identify LucasWoJ's corpse.” Day 3 post confirms this was caller." doesn't legitimize your argument. Glad you made it explicit to the town, however. The mikeymoo clues seem more sadistic than surrealist to me. Might just be my perspective. I think we ought to focus on the last line, however. It seems far different from the tone of the rest of the passage: "As his life left him, mikeymoo chuckled at the absurdity of the knife solving the problem of his hoarse, sore throat.” I don't see how the fact that Nal_ra is a commentator has anything to do with watching. I really don't see it. Please elaborate. What relevance does this have to anything? Especially to the mafia topic? "Breaking of the fingers could symbolize the inability of mikeymoo to ever compete against them in their sport again?" What I mean is could you expand on this? You're essentially leaving hanging a thought. It doesn't seem like your going anywhere with it; please do. Your analysis of RoL seems fair enough. But it seems like you're focusing on specific people: Scamp, RoL, Tricode, HeavonEarth. That's not really fair. LTT and Qatol would NOT simply use these four, if they are indeed mafia, and I suspect that at least one is not, in three days' time. Edit: Spoilered. | ||
BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
In light of mtf's stuff though, I concur that Vivi57 could be an optimal target as well. | ||
BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
Also note, part of my reason for concentrating on those 4, was they link semi decently to day 3, so went back to see if they relinked to previous days. | ||
Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
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LTT
Shakuras1095 Posts
On May 23 2009 12:17 Camlito wrote: Do i have to vote yet? Voting ends in ~25 hours 13 minutes. | ||
Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 23 2009 12:21 Camlito wrote: Ok i'll take my time. Just don't forget to vote! | ||
Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
Incognito(1) Tricode - 2 Plexa(1) Scamp(1) 0cz3c - 1 MrBabyHands(1) MrBabyHands - 2 0cz3c(1) Scamp(2) Vivi57 - 3 MTF(1) 0cz3c(2) <-- from BloodyC0bbler nemY(1) Abstain - 3 Plexa(2) MTF(2) HeavOnEarth(1) Total Votes - 12/ Total Voters - 8 Vivi57 - 3 Tricode - 2 MrBabyHands - 2 BloodyC0bbler - 1 0cz3c - 1 Abstain - 3 Double Lynch 2/5 Needed MTF 0cz3c Non-voters - 12 scaramanga bloodyc0bbler fusionsdf bockit camlito showtime! vivi57 mynock amber[light] rebirthoflegend Tricode Malongo Single Voters - 4 Incognito MrBabyHands nemY HeavOnEarth 24 hours remain. Please remember that you have 2 votes. And if you wish to change either one, please post both votes and label the vote you wish to change. | ||
Malongo
Chile3468 Posts
Not that i'm worried about inactivity , but , which mayor promises to lynch all the quiet people first? You have my vote Well if it's a townie/blue pardoner , he really shouldn't do anything until the later stages of the game, where mafia has the ability to sway the voting by sheer numbers(?) hey ver how do we know you're not mafia and this isn't just a ploy to make sure he doesn't get votes; so that you're ensured mayor? i'll totally run for pardoner and do absolutely nothing it's my pledge to the people to Liquida Ver ver! what's my mafia %? i guess the playing dumb mafia idea failed eh? well im guessing mafia is gonna kill nemY anyways lol if not :O dont lynch ace, don't double lynch ! ...well i just had to put it out there *anxiously awaits the next lynch results* so you don't think plexa is mafia? oO i'll just come right out and say im not good at midn games so i don't really know what to do with the whole ver/ace/nemY thing except follow the most logical post ( which i can't decide unbiased right now) that said, what plexa did was suspicious, and he hasn't even been active so how many mafia are tipping the scales for ace? ... Vigi - kill L tonight. Seconded. Just a side note that L did the exact same thing as mafia last game. it was quite hilarious how he never got caught though XD I think that L is the traitor. Although his behavior last game was like this( he was mafia) , this game he is openly accusing anyone, everyone if being mafia Now i've been fine with that until Ver AND Ace have turned up BOTH innocent. What , are we going to just keep sitting around as L accuses more innocents and just goes "oops" ? Also, i think he is accusing nemY in hopes of regaining (or refining) the town's trust. That said, nemY should still be lynched Although i honestly thought as least one was mafia, so meh. collective paranoia from last game screwed us over moreso than L there =/ Short version: Lynch L and nemY yay L's back ready to make another 20 pages of useless arguments? :D hey stop that you're supposed to be mean so i can have an incentive to argue Also, one thing that L assumed(?) in lynching ace or ver is that the blue's had to have roleclaimed to Ver or Ace. This is obviously not true. . . @ incognito, why do you think nemY is innocent? Also , i probably should've added this before but If nemY doesn't die to mafia tonight, we should lynch him tomorrow. but eh, mafia could purposefully not hit him , expecting the town to lynch. However, nemY can use his shit(detective) this night, right? =/ so that might, prove his innocence? =/.. oh true, cause you don't even know if you're a BG eh. possibly they got lucky? =/ line em up and lynch em one by one =/ I left at least 2/3 "LOL" and 2/3 "WUT" posts out on purpose. The fact is that HOE has been playing in EXACTLY the same lines that Caller wich makes me think he is behaviouraly the most interesting lynch for the town. Note also that MYBRUTE is present, BC made a small conection to the smaller man, Dreamflower made a clue connection as well and the absurdly BRUTE killing of Lucaswoj. I will skip MBH/Oz3c for now because i think theres more to read from them. Please also read Ace/Ver, they both agreed in some point that HOE was a valid target. Town: This is D day. If we fuck this lynch we lose, no second chances. | ||
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