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SnB your posting is making no sense. First off your "scoring ez points" post was in response to clarity not me, yet then you say it was a comment that I did something scummy. wat...?
On November 18 2012 22:43 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 20:31 Clarity_nl wrote:
How come there are so many lazy town in this game, but not the fucking newbies I played in.
Kickstarter, I've explained before why just sitting back and saying who you think is scummy is not enough.
Darth, you said the only person you're willing to lynch over zbo was me, make a fucking case.
Hopeless, seriously dude you are the closest we have to confirmed town, you have nothing to fear, this is the perfect time to read read read and get a read going.
I would also like everyone who voted zbo to explain why they didnt switch after his death post. Did it LOOK like a fucking WIFOM bomb? He called the towny players town and he called the scummy players scum. complaining about lazy townies in a mini that's hit 136 pages before the end of N2 way to score easy points bro
On November 18 2012 22:55 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 22:49 Kickstart wrote:
Can we seriously end all the personal attacks this game, I guess asking this 136 pages in is a bit late but seriously it is getting annoying. the "easy points" thing isn't meant to be a personal attack it's a comment that you did something scummy scum like to criticize town for inactivity, it's a way to seem town without actually helping the town. the fact that your criticism is not valid makes it seem even scummier than usual
You are confusing me.
And my asking people to stop making personal attacks was not in response to anything aimed at me - after hapa and BH had their turns attacking me no one has done so again. I just think some people get a little too carried away with personal attacks. But anyways I won't talk about it anymore as it doesn't really help us find scum. But I will be messaging mods if it continues.
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On November 18 2012 23:16 Kickstart wrote:SnB your posting is making no sense. First off your "scoring ez points" post was in response to clarity not me, yet then you say it was a comment that I did something scummy. wat...? Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 22:43 strongandbig wrote:On November 18 2012 20:31 Clarity_nl wrote:
How come there are so many lazy town in this game, but not the fucking newbies I played in.
Kickstarter, I've explained before why just sitting back and saying who you think is scummy is not enough.
Darth, you said the only person you're willing to lynch over zbo was me, make a fucking case.
Hopeless, seriously dude you are the closest we have to confirmed town, you have nothing to fear, this is the perfect time to read read read and get a read going.
I would also like everyone who voted zbo to explain why they didnt switch after his death post. Did it LOOK like a fucking WIFOM bomb? He called the towny players town and he called the scummy players scum. complaining about lazy townies in a mini that's hit 136 pages before the end of N2 way to score easy points bro Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 22:55 strongandbig wrote:On November 18 2012 22:49 Kickstart wrote:
Can we seriously end all the personal attacks this game, I guess asking this 136 pages in is a bit late but seriously it is getting annoying. the "easy points" thing isn't meant to be a personal attack it's a comment that you did something scummy scum like to criticize town for inactivity, it's a way to seem town without actually helping the town. the fact that your criticism is not valid makes it seem even scummier than usual You are confusing me. And my asking people to stop making personal attacks was not in response to anything aimed at me - after hapa and BH had their turns attacking me no one has done so again. I just think some people get a little too carried away with personal attacks. But anyways I won't talk about it anymore as it doesn't really help us find scum. But I will be messaging mods if it continues.
yeah no i got confused
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On November 18 2012 23:09 Kickstart wrote:
I was not referring to a singular post. And stop trying to read scum from me asking that people stop attacking people personally and cussing them etc, that is silly.
Who said anything about scum. And if not a single post is a personal attack, then there are no personal attacks. No one dislikes you as a person.
Please give us some reads with something you noticed or w/e
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I find it rather weird that if you haven't felt attacked since hapa/BH, who I don't recall attacking you, that you're threatening to report "someone" to the mods?
Seriously, what do you classify as a personal attack? We can have this conversation after the game ends if you prefer, I guess.
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I'm retarded keirathi answered two of my questions already. Bob-omb was the role name for miller, and it says in the "setup" post that the scum roleblocker can RB and NK at the same time.
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Yes after game please. But calling people retarded, stupid, etc and cursing at them is not the same as attacking their points. But enough of this as it has nothing to do with the game and you two are just confusing your posts and my responses. Again this is pointless and can be talked about post-game if you want.
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Okay. I'd still like those reads, though.
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@ strongandbig
No, those are my strongest townreads currently, which I don't see changing anytime soon.
Yes, my "you're all so inactive!" was probably not fair. But if you think I'm trying to get townie points by insulting a bunch of people, you are wrong.
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On November 18 2012 18:40 Djodref wrote:@ debearsShit, I have just missed you. Anyway, it was a long time ago but I still want have some details about what happened in your head during the exchange between S&B and BH at D2. Especially I want to know why you posted this. Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 14:08 Djodref wrote:On November 17 2012 09:36 debears wrote:
Can we double lynch BH and SnB???? @ debearsCan you explain me this post and your latest vote and unvote against BH in details ?
For two vets, they have both ridiculously underperformed. They have been obnoxious. I was getting tired of it.
And hell, chances are one of them is scum (more likely SnB imo)
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debears did you believe zbo was scummier than snb?
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On November 18 2012 18:50 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 18:18 debears wrote:On November 18 2012 17:59 Djodref wrote:
@ debears
I disagree, it could be a good strategy for a possible SK to retain his night kills until we manage to find the last scum.
What does make you think that a possible SK would kill tonight ? 1) Assuming that the SK isn't hopeless, he could put doubt on hopeless' claim. 2) it's what, 8/7 town to 1 scum/sk or 1 scum and sk 3) The longer the game goes on, the harder it is to conceal a guilty conscience/push your agenda as sk/mafia @ debears1)That's actually a good point. I don't think that hopeless could be SK even with another kill because he killed Crossfire and that would have been against a SK interest. But I've just realized that there was no way for a SK Hopeless to know for sure that Cross was scum when he decided to kill. By the way, would you yourself doubt Hopeless claim if we have 2 kills again tonight ? I remember that Hopeless was on your radar during D1. 2)That's also a good point. But it depends on the strategy you would choose as a SK. I don't know about it... 3)I disagree with this one because a possible SK would not know who the last scum is better than us. He would have no other thing to do than to scumhunt hard while not killing anyone and hope to survive until lylo. You don't have any guilty conscience if you didn't kill anyone, right  ?
1) I would strongly look at Hopeless if another kill showed up. However, in my thought process, it would be fucking retarded for a SK to claim vig n1. Think about it. He would paint a target on his back for the mafia by being a confirmed town
2 and 3) Djo, it's a proven fact that, the longer the game goes on, the worse it is for the anti-town alignments. It gets so much harder to hide
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On November 18 2012 18:51 Clarity_nl wrote:
I've explained my thoughts on last minute shennanigans. I did this when marv tried to jump on cross too, which is not much of a defense I guess since he flipped scum too.
I'm town. That's my defense. I never aggressively defended hapa or cross, I was against emotionally lynching someone.
Read debears' case on hapa, it WAS omgus.
Clarity, you know me full well after last game that I omgus when I find someones shitty reasoning for attacking me. It made you and sylver scum reads to me d1 last game. And guess what? I was right
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On November 19 2012 00:56 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 18:51 Clarity_nl wrote:
I've explained my thoughts on last minute shennanigans. I did this when marv tried to jump on cross too, which is not much of a defense I guess since he flipped scum too.
I'm town. That's my defense. I never aggressively defended hapa or cross, I was against emotionally lynching someone.
Read debears' case on hapa, it WAS omgus. Clarity, you know me full well after last game that I omgus when I find someones shitty reasoning for attacking me. It made you and sylver scum reads to me d1 last game. And guess what? I was right
Yes. I realize this. But I did not find your case convincing.
I only say this because blazing's case quoted me saying your case was omgus. I simply replied to him, by saying it was omgus.
Now you quote that, saying that it was omgus. YES I KNOW
Sigh at all of that.
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On November 18 2012 15:25 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2012 14:43 Clarity_nl wrote:
How does mass claiming confirm that there's an SK? I think hopeless is 98% vigi and I will not lynch him until lylo, or if we lynch the scum and the game doesn't end.
I'm thinking about the mass claim, but it's hard to justify exposing all our blues. I'll go along if others do.
@ ClarityI think that Hope is Vig even if we obtain the proof that there is a SK with a mass claim. Are you familiar with the C9++ setup ? If not, I recommend to have a careful look at this page. It's quite interesting and I think this is something you have to know if you want to be a better player and/or if you want to host a game sometime. Anyway, here is the most interesting part regarding the setup, given our current situation. To sum up, the scum roles are a function of the number of "T" letters you obtain when you pick 7 letters in between the following letter probability set. T = 1/2 D = 1/10 (in our game, the "D" letter gives us JK roles) V = 1/10 (one-shot Vigs only) M = 1/10 (mason and miller roles) B = 1/20 (town RB roles) C = 3/20 (you need two "C" letters to have one fully operational Cop in the game) Please note that one of the letters in our rolled set for this game is M and that one other is V (Hopeless). Let's take a look at the different possibilities for the scum roles. Scum RolesTTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killera 7 "T" letter set is impossible because we have at least one "M" TTTTTT = Goon + Godfatherimpossible because we would already have won the game TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial KillerThis setup is possible only if one of BH or Hopeless is lying and is the remaining SK. I think we can safely discard this possibility unless we are at lylo with BH or with Hopeless. Moreover, there are only 2 mafia in this setup and no more blues on top of Hopeless and BH, even if one of them is lying. MVTTTTT or MDTTTTT if you want. TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblockerimpossible setup because of Bowser flip TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)impossible setup because of Bowser flip TT = Goon + Roleblocker + GodfatherI think that this is the setup we are in (and it is the most likely probability-wise, something like 40%). It leaves the room for 2 or 3 more blues on top of Hopeless, information that we can be confirm with a mass-claim. T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)This setup has roughly a 15% probability to happen. It can also be confirmed with a mass claim but it would leave us in a dangerous position with all the blues revealed for the SK and the remaining scum. But we would know for sure that there is a SK and start looking for him seriously. Anyway, it is less likely to happen. 0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + GodfatherThis setup has only a 5% probability to happen. We would have enough blue to outright solve the game. Is there anything stil unclear ? The more I think about it, the more I think that mass claiming at the end of the night is our best move but I need everyone participation. I beg you to seriously consider it.
I'm going to work through the possibilities in detail here, so I can add up the probabilities later.
First, some comments:
- For this post, I'm going to assume that whatever Keirathi did with one-shot roles other than vig, it was consistent - either they all got upgraded to full roles, or they all got turned into VTs. Otherwise, there are just too many possibilities. I will refer to this by saying in which cases one-shot roles get "removed" or "upgraded"
- For vigilantes, I'm assuming that VV and V both give exactly the same town roles, a single one-shot vigilante.
- Additionally, given how much BH has crowed about "not being counterclaimed," and given the lack of RB claims, and given that Marv died, I'm going to assume that there isn't another jailkeeper. It's technically possible, but the evidence is too strong against it.
- Only BH claimed to be roleblocked last night, and all players get RB notifications. It's possible that someone got roleblocked last night and didn't claim, but any townie who got roleblocked should have claimed already and should claim asap - it doesn't out the blue role, but it gives us a lot of valuable setup information that scum already have.
Additionally, a town RB'er could have RB'ed scum if there are multiple scum left and the non-role-blocked scum was the one who carried out the nk. So I'm not going to rule out the possibility of a town roleblocker.
- It's also possible that we have an additional vigilante. If you are a vigilante and you haven't shot yet, you should shoot tonight and then claim during the last one hour. You should shoot BH, but even if you disagree with me, you should still shoot someone. We need the setup info. If you are a vigilante and already shot, but your target didn't die you should also obviously claim, preferably sooner rather than later since you can't be roleblocked anymore.
TTTTT, I don't think we can discard. We can no longer tell any difference between the three possible scenarios: BH is lying and is the SK, BH is lying and is the last scum, and BH is telling the truth and there is a scum RB'er. This means we could have TTTTTMV, BH is the serial killer, and there are no other blue roles.
Two T's: either blazinghand is telling the truth, or else blazinghand is the scum roleblocker.
First, TT setups where BH is telling the truth and there are no additional blue roles
This is only possible if one-shot roles get removed:
- TTMVVDD, TTMVVDC, TTMVDDC if one-shot roles get removed.
Next, TT setups where BH is telling the truth, and we have a single unclaimed blue role:
- TTMVVDC, TTMVDDC if one-shot roles get upgraded
- TTMVVDB, TTMVDCC, TTMVVVD in all cases
- TTMVDBB, TTMVDDB, TTMVDCB if one-shot roles get removed
Next, TT setups where BH is telling the truth and we have more than one un-claimed blue role. These are only possible if one-shot roles get upgraded:
- TTMVDBB, TTMVDCB if one-shot roles get upgraded.
Finally, TT setups where BH is telling the truth and we have a mason pair that hasn't claimed yet:
Now, let's look at the cases where BH is lying, but we're still in a TT setup. There has to be at least one additional blue role for this to be true.
TT setups where BH is lying and there is one additional blue role
- TTMVVCC, TTMVVVV in all cases
- TTMVVBB, TTMVCCC, TTMVVCB, TTMVVVC, TTMVCBB, if one-shot roles get removed
TT setups where BH is lying and there are two additional blue roles
- TTMVVCB, TTMVVBB, or TTMVCCC, TTMVVVC if one-shot roles get upgraded
- TTMVBCC, TTMVVVB, TTMVBBB in all cases
Next, TT setups where BH is lying and there are three additional blue roles.
This only works if one-shot roles get upgraded:
- TTMVCBB if one-shot roles get upgraded
[u]Finally, TT setups where BH is lying and we have an unclaimed mason pair and no other blues
- TTMMMVV in all cases
- TTMMMVC if one-shot roles get removed
[u]And, TT setups where BH is lying and we have an unclaimed mason pair and one other blue
[list]
[*]TTMMMVC if one-shot roles get upgraded
[*]TTMMMVB in all cases
Single-T setups
We can only start out with TMVD if BH is telling the truth, or TMV if he's lying; but the assumption that there are no other jailkeepers makes it a bit simpler than it could have been.
If BH is telling the truth we have
- TMMMVVD in all cases - M+0
- TMMMVDC if one-shot roles are removed - M+0
- TMMMVDC if one-shot roles are upgraded - M+1
- TMMMVDB in all cases - M+1
- TMMMVDD if one-shot roles get removed - M+0
- TMVVVVD in all cases - 1
- TMVVVDD if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVVVDC if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVVVDC if one-shot roles get upgraded - 2
- TMVVVDB in all cases - 2
- TMVVDDC if one-shot roles get removed - 0
- TMVVDDB in all cases - 1
- TMVVDCC in all cases - 1
- TMVVDCB if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVVDCB if one-shot roles get upgraded - 2
- TMVVDBB if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVVDBB if one-shot roles get upgraded - 2
- TMVDDCC if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVDDCB if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVDDBB if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVDCCC if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVDCCC if one-shot roles get upgraded - 2
- TMVDCCB in all cases - 2
- TMVDCBB if one-shot roles get removed - 1
- TMVDCBB if one-shot roles get upgraded - 3
- TMVDBBB in all cases - 2
there are a fuckload of these and I need to get to work, I'll come back to this later.
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On November 19 2012 00:51 Clarity_nl wrote:
debears did you believe zbo was scummier than snb?
They were pretty damn close. Z-Bo was way off his meta. He didn't metion the purposeful change until later in d1, instead of in the pregame. He really hadn't done anything so far to make me think he was town. SnB has been picking his spots to be here. He didn't care about showing up on lynch day. Leaves when the pressure is on him
Also, he was a liability heading into lylo. Now that we know he was a miller, we have gained some more setup information. We won't have to worry about people doubting his claim.
I pretty much want to autolynch SnB today
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
lol more setup speculation how typical
also snb is a vet like I'm a sailor
I ain't no sailor
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Is it possible to know how the single-shot roles were handled ?
I was assuming that the letters have been rolled and rolled again until you got something fitting the modified rules for this game, was I correct ?
@ S&B
On November 19 2012 01:04 strongandbig wrote:
<snip>
TTTTT, I don't think we can discard. We can no longer tell any difference between the three possible scenarios: BH is lying and is the SK, BH is lying and is the last scum, and BH is telling the truth and there is a scum RB'er. This means we could have TTTTTMV, BH is the serial killer, and there are no other blue roles.
<snip>
I appreciate to have someone to speculate this setup with. I agree that we should not totally discard TTTTT because one of BH or Hopeless could be fake claiming and be a SK but it doesn't make sense for any of them. Especially a blind fake JK claim from a SK during D1, it is clearly a suicidal move. What do you think ?
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Wait Djo you think BH is JK now?
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On November 19 2012 01:24 Blazinghand wrote:
lol more setup speculation how typical
also snb is a vet like I'm a sailor
I ain't no sailor
fuck along now
unless you have something helpful to share with the class?
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hopeless can't be fakeclaiming, because then someone would have had to be around to roleblock BH - only BH can be fakeclaiming.
And as for your other point, I think that it's not necessarily a suicidal move if you (a) think you can get away with it, or (b) don't really think you can / want to try to win normally as SK in the first place
Basically, I still think BH's claim makes as much sense from an SK as it does from an actual town jailkeeper.
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EPT
