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Champi
1422 Posts
still reckon MK fixed though. i will never believe that he didnt see that spine crawler or creep on his minimap and in his base for that entire game, I don't think i could be convinced tbh, but ive forgiven him either way  hopefully this is amongst the last we see of this | ||
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Thax
Belgium1060 Posts
On May 07 2015 22:49 coverpunch wrote: You deserve some of the criticism because you're creating false dichotomies to skew opinion to your preheld belief. Using your own example, it is highly unlikely (1.6%) that someone would get a coin flip correct six times in a row, but it doesn't hold that the other 98.4% is represented by "knowing that the coin is fixed". The other 98.4% simply represents all the other outcomes that could have occurred. You get the same likelihood if you select any other specific singular outcome from guessing the result of six coin flips. The betting behavior on Pinnacle is definitely peculiar. But there are alternatives to simply match-fixing scandal or someone is the stupidest person alive. To deny that can only be pigheaded stubbornness or a severe lack of imagination. See how those false dichotomies work? Occam's Razor though. | ||
TheNewEra
Germany3128 Posts
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Jarree
Finland1004 Posts
On May 07 2015 22:49 coverpunch wrote: You deserve some of the criticism because you're creating false dichotomies to skew opinion to your preheld belief. Using your own example, it is highly unlikely (1.6%) that someone would get a coin flip correct six times in a row, but it doesn't hold that the other 98.4% is represented by "knowing that the coin is fixed". The other 98.4% simply represents all the other outcomes that could have occurred. You get the same likelihood if you select any other specific singular outcome from guessing the result of six coin flips. The betting behavior on Pinnacle is definitely peculiar. But there are alternatives to simply match-fixing scandal or someone is the stupidest person alive. To deny that can only be pigheaded stubbornness or a severe lack of imagination. See how those false dichotomies work? Ok, you peaked my interest. What exactly are the other 98,4%, besides coin being rigged? I think you are confusing two things here. There are lots of other possibilities for a singular betting line going beserk than match-fixing. That is correct. Maybe the Pinnacle system is completely screwed and spurts our random odds. Sure. But, what are the odds of Pinnacle system spurting out random odds AND in every game that it spurted out the random odds, the match ended in the result it indicated? It's the exact same, 1,56%. The combination of the two cannot be explained by anything else than foreknowledge of the outcome of the matches, or something else (1,56%): luck, broken odds-system (which is also luck!) etc. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On May 07 2015 20:27 Estancia wrote: Source : https://www.facebook.com/proleague.sc2/posts/363459173853783 (in Korean) I'm not really good at translating but here are the key points : - None of the players were involved in match fixing - There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing). - Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed - KeSPA is stepping up their effort in taking down illegal betting websites to prevent further incidents, and also in protecting the players from these brokers - Until the case has been fully resolved please do not make inappropriate accusations to players and cause harm to them - We will continue to communicate with the fans until the final decision is out and to prevent any future illegal acts. EDIT : Apparently there was a report in some of the Korean news about the possible match fixing scandal, and that was what prompted KeSPA to make this statement On the first point - how did Kespa come to this conclusion? Specifically for the losing players involved in the voided matches; what investigation if any occurred? On the second point - If the players rejected the offer to match fix, why would the match fixers bet on the match anyway and lose money? It makes no sense. Obviously some players have rejected match fixing offers (Solar, MMA), but I would expect almost every Kespa player has received offers at some point. On the third point, this is excellent news that people have been jailed in an investigation related to illegal betting/match fixing; can we have some details on whether they were people who were attempting to fix matches, did fix matches, ran illegal betting sites or whether it was for some other reason? On the fourth point; what specific steps are being taken? I can claim i'm helping save endangered tiger habitats or whatever, but it doesn't mean I actually am unless I can provide details on how specifically i'm taking action to address the concern in question On the fifth point; if Kespa would publicly release evidence exonerating the alleged match fixing players, we would be able to reach an informed conclusion if they are clearly innocent. There is some circumstantial evidence that five players are likely to be guilty (innovation, soulkey, san, super and marineking) , and overwhelming circumstantial evidence in one case (marineking), no evidence has been publicly released about how Kespa determined these players are innocent of match fixing, especially in the most egregious case (the other four cases were based more on impossible to be legitimate betting patterns + the player being bet against losing; in the marineking case there was also all of the odd ingame behaviour too) On the sixth point; this statement is appreciated but doesn't really say anything, as fans we want more details on how you reached your conclusion that no match fixing has occurred in Kespa tournaments or it's a meaningless PR statement. For example, what specific steps did you take to investigate the Marineking vs Byul match? Did you watch the replay with Marineking while he explains his thought process and ask him if he'd be willing to show his bank statement and skype/bnet/fb/whatever chat logs? Were the people jailed for match fixing attempts interviewed about which players if any accepted their offers? If nobody accepted their offers and they were jailed anyway, where's the transcript of what happened there? If they've been jailed are they awaiting charges and the investigation is ongoing or is the trial over? If it's over, can we have a transcript if it's available to the public? On another note, did Kespa ever contact Pinnacle to get an informed viewpoint on the betting lines and get relevant IP addresses etc for their investigation? If not, why not? This statement is hugely disappointing in that they comprehensively state that no match fixing has occurred, yet offer no evidence or even details of how they came to that conclusion to support the assertion that no match fixing occurred. | ||
Hot_Bid
Braavos36402 Posts
On May 07 2015 21:27 RPR_Tempest wrote: People have already made up their minds. Nobody who thinks MarineKing match-fixed (pro tip: he didn't) is going to be persuaded by even KeSPA saying otherwise. This being despite the fact that these were the same people BEGGING for an official KeSPA investigation/statement. But when they don't agree with it they'll just disregard it. Honestly, there was no possible way KeSPA was going to come out and say there was match fixing no matter what the truth is. It's KeSPA, they are extremely interested in the survival of SC2 in Korea after what happened with BW there. The idea that ALL players who were offered match fixing didn't do it despite the canceled matches over long periods of time just sounds like complete bullshit. I'm not talking about MKP specifically, but the idea that every single pro turned down the offers and "caused loss to the investors" sounds too good to be true. What does that even mean anyway, because the only way the match-fixing "investors" lose money is if the players agree then don't carry it out? I want to believe this statement beacuse it's positive, and for the SC2 scene to survive we need to hope its true, but KeSPA is so shady in the past and has lied about so much bullshit that I simply find it hard to. And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf | ||
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-Kyo-
Japan1927 Posts
On May 07 2015 20:27 Estancia wrote: - None of the players were involved in match fixing - There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing). - Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed - Until the case has been fully resolved please do not make inappropriate accusations to players and cause harm to them - We will continue to communicate with the fans until the final decision is out and to prevent any future illegal acts. Those points alone make it pretty clear this is a response from them to do some form of damage control imo... Idk what to think of this whole situation anymore, especially on that last point :/ | ||
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Penev
28536 Posts
- None of the players were involved in match fixing Sure. Well, let's hope people are too scared to try it again at least. On May 07 2015 22:58 TheNewEra wrote: If the Korean Police jailed some of these Gamblers, Brokers. Shouldn't it be 'relatively' easy to gain information from them which progamer matchfixed if there is matchfixing going on? You'd think so. But maybe they get persuaded not to do so for lower sentences. And they're not exactly the most trustworthy of people anyway | ||
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imre
France9263 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:19 -Kyo- wrote: Those points alone make it pretty clear this is a response from them to do some form of damage control imo... Idk what to think of this whole situation anymore. :/ imo the main problem is stopping it asap. If it's only a few players who fucked up on their own you can still cover it up as long as there are not a lot of other cases and it won't cause too many troubles. | ||
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coverpunch
United States2093 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:00 Jarree wrote: Ok, you peaked my interest. What exactly are the other 98,4%, besides coin being rigged? I think you are confusing two things here. There are lots of other possibilities for a singular betting line going beserk than match-fixing. That is correct. Maybe the Pinnacle system is completely screwed and spurts our random odds. Sure. But, what are the odds of Pinnacle system spurting out random odds AND in every game that it spurted out the random odds, the match ended in the result it indicated? It's the exact same, 1,56%. The combination of the two cannot be explained by anything else than foreknowledge of the outcome of the matches, or something else (1,56%): luck, broken odds-system (which is also luck!) etc. Sigh... Pinnacle's system is NOT random - that's precisely why we're talking about this at all. I explicitly mention this in my post in the second paragraph. The odds of the player who had the huge bulk of the betting support winning in each of the six suspected games is 1.56%. I simply think it's illogical to be stuck with only two choices - either those players were paid to take dives or there's highly unlikely luck. It's certainly possible, for example, that those players were pressured to take dives by betters and refused as Kespa reported, but the offers threw them off their game or caused undue mental strain that made them play poorly. Or the players may face harassment by betting netizens before their matches who want them to lose, particularly players who are known for being mentally fragile like MarineKing. Those would be very different situations from match-fixing. | ||
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Jaded.
United States125 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets? | ||
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TheWinks
United States572 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf At least 2 went the 'wrong' way. A Life game and some other one. Even though pinnacle didn't void them, the main action isn't on pinnacle. | ||
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Penev
28536 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:21 Jaded. wrote: What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets? He doesn't mention "Korean" anywhere? Pinnacle voided 5 bets (and another site at least one IIRC) | ||
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Supersamu
Germany296 Posts
I thought every respectable Organization/Corporation has a website where they list their press releases, not a third-party site like facebook. At least that is my experience from having to find a 5-year-old press release for something I had to do at school. | ||
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Jaded.
United States125 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:28 Penev wrote: He doesn't mention "Korean" anywhere? Pinnacle voided 5 bets (and another site at least one IIRC) Kespa doesn't care about pinnacle they can't do anything about that. Why would Kespa be talking about a foreign site they can't do anything about? | ||
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maGicc
Finland134 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:21 Jaded. wrote: What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets? Why does it matter in this case? If player is innocent and refused to throw, "investors" never bet against them, therefore they dont take any losses. | ||
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Penev
28536 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:29 Jaded. wrote: Kespa doesn't care about pinnacle they can't do anything about that. Why would Kespa be talking about a foreign site they can't do anything about? I suspect you have no idea what this is about :-S - KeSPA is stepping up their effort in taking down illegal betting websites to prevent further incidents, and also in protecting the players from these brokers I guess you were talking about this. Still, I don't see how "investors" could've lost any money | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:20 sAsImre wrote: imo the main problem is stopping it asap. If it's only a few players who fucked up on their own you can still cover it up as long as there are not a lot of other cases and it won't cause too many troubles. This Even drawing attention to it decreases the likelihood players will agree to fix matches because 'look at the things they're saying about the players who got accused of match fixing I don't want that to be me' factor plus Kespa now mentioning jail time for offenders, it will help dissuade vulnerable younger players from agreeing to matchfixing offers | ||
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Neemi
Netherlands657 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:00 Jarree wrote: Ok, you peaked my interest. What exactly are the other 98,4%, besides coin being rigged? I think you are confusing two things here. There are lots of other possibilities for a singular betting line going beserk than match-fixing. That is correct. Maybe the Pinnacle system is completely screwed and spurts our random odds. Sure. But, what are the odds of Pinnacle system spurting out random odds AND in every game that it spurted out the random odds, the match ended in the result it indicated? It's the exact same, 1,56%. The combination of the two cannot be explained by anything else than foreknowledge of the outcome of the matches, or something else (1,56%): luck, broken odds-system (which is also luck!) etc. Assuming the chance to win a game was 50/50 in all cases, it would indeed be a 1.56% chance that all bets just happened to be right by pure luck. I agree that it is unlikely to have happened through luck alone, but that does not definitely prove that it was matchfixing. To me, it always seemed that the betting lines moved right before the matches. It would not be inconceivable that maybe some people were tipped off on a player feeling like complete shit that day, or having insider knowledge on the plans for the match of both players, hence making it more like a 90/10 chance rather than 50/50. That moves the chance of being right all 6 times to 53%, which is still likely. I know these numbers are just odds I randomly made up, but then so are most of the other odds posted here. The only valid one we have is "it is unlikely the voiding of betting lines and it being right all 6 times was due to complete randomness". It also struck me that the players affected were mostly players who were in the middle of or just at the beginning of a weaker period in their careers. They didn't just lose one game, they all started playing worse for a while. I'm pretty sure that players who matchfix one of their games don't also go on to lose 8 out of their next 10 games for fun. San made a comment after the game on how he didn't feel well and lost most of his games, Marineking was suffering from all the pressure in his team and lost most of his games, Innovation may or may not have something happen to him, as he lost his sharpness around the time he lost that first game, and Soulkey just got settled into an international team and still hasn't regained his 2013 form. My point is that while I agree that this all happening through a faulty system and dumb luck is quite unlikely, there are more alternatives to get an unfair advantage in betting than just matchfixing. The players aren't to blame for going through a rough period in their lives/career, and if there's no actual proof of monetary or communicational traces, we should not unfairly place all the blame on the players. I'm open to the players having matchfixed, but I will only believe so when there is actual proof that suggests matchfixing specifically, rather than assumptions made based on statistics that can in no way definitely prove matchfixing. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On May 07 2015 23:29 Jaded. wrote: Kespa doesn't care about pinnacle they can't do anything about that. Why would Kespa be talking about a foreign site they can't do anything about? Pinnacle publicly agreed to cooperate with a Kespa investigation. If matches were fixed, bets on said matches were placed on Pinnacle (which is part of why we know about them in the first place). They have IP addresses the bets came from; which could lead back to the bettors, which is important if Kespa are serious about fighting match fixing and illegal betting as they claim. Pinnacle can also help Kespa understand the evidence against their players in the voided matches from a mathematical standpoint. Both parties have a vested interest in keeping esports clean in theory; whether Kespa do in practice is another matter (Kespa for their reputation and Pinnacle so they can offer bets on it and customers wont be afraid to bet on matches due to match fixing; growth of clean esports makes pinnacle money) | ||
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