I'm not really good at translating but here are the key points :
- None of the players were involved in match fixing
- There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing). (Investors referring to people who pay the brokers and provide the money to pay the players for match fixing)
- Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed
- KeSPA is stepping up their effort in taking down illegal betting websites to prevent further incidents, and also in protecting the players from these brokers
- Until the case has been fully resolved please do not make inappropriate accusations to players and cause harm to them
- We will continue to communicate with the fans until the final decision is out and to prevent any future illegal acts.
EDIT : Apparently there was a report in some of the Korean news about the possible match fixing scandal, and that was what prompted KeSPA to make this statement
mod edit: new info added
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
When there's no solid proof for either case, the correct approach is to consider them innocent.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
Succesfull match fixing has occured and some players have to be involved in this. Maybe not the players which names came up due to their games being flagged, maybe these players. We dont know, KESPA properbly doesnt know and police does not know too.
But at least one statement after what month? 3 to 4? since the first thread "San vs. Dark".
People have already made up their minds. Nobody who thinks MarineKing match-fixed (pro tip: he didn't) is going to be persuaded by even KeSPA saying otherwise. This being despite the fact that these were the same people BEGGING for an official KeSPA investigation/statement. But when they don't agree with it they'll just disregard it.
On May 07 2015 21:27 RPR_Tempest wrote: People have already made up their minds. Nobody who thinks MarineKing match-fixed (pro tip: he didn't) is going to be persuaded by even KeSPA saying otherwise. This being despite the fact that these were the same people BEGGING for an official KeSPA investigation/statement. But when they don't agree with it they'll just disregard it.
- Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed
- KeSPA is stepping up their effort in taking down illegal betting websites to prevent further incidents, and also in protecting the players from these brokers
For me, these are the important points. At this moment, except if one of the players confessed, there is i think no way to prove in court they matchfixed, so this is the most kespa can reasonably do/say. Getting police involved shows me they at least take the accusations seriously, and acknowledge the current dangers.
I'm hoping for some more detailed translation, but that's a matter of time I'd guess?
On May 07 2015 21:20 sharkie wrote: So i guess marineking is just a really really really bad player? O.o
no but he brainderps the hardest and that game wasn't even the biggest overlook he ever made. His decisionmaking is what keeps him from being near the top consistently afterall.
But Kespa must really be doing something against the matchfixing as they seem to think they can get it under control. Which is nice to see. Otherwise they would have stayed silent Imo, with scapegoating a player to the masses being their last resort.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Jarree is right though. Matchfixing happened, regardless of how the situation is handled now (and of course Kespa is trying to keep the damage in control or they just could not prove it)
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Creator won the freaking series, the odds were wrong to begin with. And honnestly Pinnacle odds are cringe-worthy a good portion of the time.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
- There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing).
Makes no sense, if players reject the offer - there is no betting, and no loss. It only makes sense if players accepted the money and decided to win anyway.
- We will continue to communicate with the fans
Yeah after ~5 months or so of total silence they come up with "Players are saints and noone did matchfix, its all about these shady INVESTORS/GAMBLERS"
- There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing).
Makes no sense, if players reject the offer - there is no betting, and no loss. It only makes sense if players accepted the money and decided to win anyway.
Yeah after ~5 months or so of total silence they come up with "Players are saints and noone did matchfix, its all about these shady INVESTORS/GAMBLERS"
Almost as bad as statement from MVP team.
the funniest thing about your posting history is that you fail to realize the gamblers/brokers are indeed the main problem.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Still no hard evidence, waiting for that MKP rep to be released or given to select members of the community for review before any judgements can be made. At this point the unwillingness to do this has got to raise a red flag >.>
Sadly what I read in this is "matchfixing happened, but we don't want to create a shitstorm by condemning players, so we only condemn brokers". But well, better than nothing I guess.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
I'd think that matchfixers probably keep some sort of traceability of who they proposed matchfixing to and who accepted
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or I the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Does that make sense?
I thought you were computing the probability that 6 matches would be voided, if they had a 50% chance of being voided. That would've been completely retarded. I misunderstood.
On May 07 2015 22:03 maGicc wrote: Guess Rekrul was on point when he said that its in Kespa's best interest to cover it as much as possible.
But i guess some people will buy it and even will think that MatchFixKing.prime is innocent and "just bad"
Please go away with your witch hunt and leave actually intelligent people to deal with this stuff
It will be hard to find any intelligent people amongs the bunch that fail to understand probabilities and statistics. Since you failed to show that you understand either one, i am not sure why anyone should care about your opinion at all. Putting a smiley face in the end wont fool anyone into actually believing that you know what you are talking about.
You should've avoided mentioning the "witch hunt" to be honest, because at this point, trying to mark anyone as a witchhunter only proves how deep is your head in the sand of stupidity.
On May 07 2015 22:14 Plexa wrote: Still no hard evidence, waiting for that MKP rep to be released or given to select members of the community for review before any judgements can be made. At this point the unwillingness to do this has got to raise a red flag >.>
Pretty much this. In a perfect world, not only replay should be released, but MKP's comments attached to the certain points of a game, explayning what was he thinking and why he made such retarded choices and how its even possible without matchfixing.
But if they wont even bother releasing a replay. Any statement like "players were not involved" just sounds like officer's Barbrady's "Okay move along, move along people, there's nothing to see here!"
On May 07 2015 22:03 maGicc wrote: Guess Rekrul was on point when he said that its in Kespa's best interest to cover it as much as possible.
But i guess some people will buy it and even will think that MatchFixKing.prime is innocent and "just bad"
Please go away with your witch hunt and leave actually intelligent people to deal with this stuff
It will be hard to find any intelligent people amongs the bunch that fail to understand probabilities and statistics. Since you failed to show that you understand either one, i am not sure why anyone should care about your opinion at all. Putting a smiley face in the end wont fool anyone into actually believing that you know what you are talking about.
You should've avoided mentioning the "witch hunt" to be honest, because at this point, trying to mark anyone as a witchhunter only proves how deep is your head in the sand of stupidity.
Only reason why i target you with the posts that i do, is because youre seriously 100% toxic. Your post history is nothing but calling people stupid or calling pro players trash. Imho, even if youre right that doesnt excuse being a completely shitty human.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or I the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Does that make sense?
I thought you were computing the probability that 6 matches would be voided, if they had a 50% chance of being voided. That would've been completely retarded. I misunderstood.
Yeah no problem mate. It was my fault for not explaining better, I was just frustrated. Still remembering the earlier threads and trying to explain coincidence, only to be spat on.
-There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing).
If the players refused to participate why would any suspicious betting still occur, causing that loss of money?
Nice. Even though I believe that all of these games were thrown by the players (Marineking especially). I'm glad they're not going to see harsh consequences. I don't want to see any jump out of a building like the IM coach. That is, provided the match fixing stops (or at least is reduced, or at least becomes less obvious).
You have to consider that one reason that Kespa may have remained quiet so far is if the police were investigating, they may not have wanted too much public discussion while they were investigating, and the police may have asked Kespa to hold off commenting further. Also if Kespa did comment and said there was or wasn't match fixing while investigations were still ongoing, they could have either been wrong if investigations found evidence of guilt, or accused of defamation or similar if everyone was innocent.
It might not be entirely down to Kespa as to why information wasn't forthcoming.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or I the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Does that make sense?
I thought you were computing the probability that 6 matches would be voided, if they had a 50% chance of being voided. That would've been completely retarded. I misunderstood.
Yeah no problem mate. It was my fault for not explaining better, I was just frustrated. Still remembering the earlier threads and trying to explain coincidence, only to be spat on.
You deserve some of the criticism because you're creating false dichotomies to skew opinion to your preheld belief. Using your own example, it is highly unlikely (1.6%) that someone would get a coin flip correct six times in a row, but it doesn't hold that the other 98.4% is represented by "knowing that the coin is fixed". The other 98.4% simply represents all the other outcomes that could have occurred. You get the same likelihood if you select any other specific singular outcome from guessing the result of six coin flips.
The betting behavior on Pinnacle is definitely peculiar. But there are alternatives to simply match-fixing scandal or someone is the stupidest person alive. To deny that can only be pigheaded stubbornness or a severe lack of imagination. See how those false dichotomies work?
This is a good statement, glad to see Kespa stepping in on this before shit gets savior-like
still reckon MK fixed though. i will never believe that he didnt see that spine crawler or creep on his minimap and in his base for that entire game, I don't think i could be convinced tbh, but ive forgiven him either way
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or I the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Does that make sense?
I thought you were computing the probability that 6 matches would be voided, if they had a 50% chance of being voided. That would've been completely retarded. I misunderstood.
Yeah no problem mate. It was my fault for not explaining better, I was just frustrated. Still remembering the earlier threads and trying to explain coincidence, only to be spat on.
You deserve some of the criticism because you're creating false dichotomies to skew opinion to your preheld belief. Using your own example, it is highly unlikely (1.6%) that someone would get a coin flip correct six times in a row, but it doesn't hold that the other 98.4% is represented by "knowing that the coin is fixed". The other 98.4% simply represents all the other outcomes that could have occurred. You get the same likelihood if you select any other specific singular outcome from guessing the result of six coin flips.
The betting behavior on Pinnacle is definitely peculiar. But there are alternatives to simply match-fixing scandal or someone is the stupidest person alive. To deny that can only be pigheaded stubbornness or a severe lack of imagination. See how those false dichotomies work?
If the Korean Police jailed some of these Gamblers, Brokers. Shouldn't it be 'relatively' easy to gain information from them which progamer matchfixed if there is matchfixing going on?
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or I the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Does that make sense?
I thought you were computing the probability that 6 matches would be voided, if they had a 50% chance of being voided. That would've been completely retarded. I misunderstood.
Yeah no problem mate. It was my fault for not explaining better, I was just frustrated. Still remembering the earlier threads and trying to explain coincidence, only to be spat on.
You deserve some of the criticism because you're creating false dichotomies to skew opinion to your preheld belief. Using your own example, it is highly unlikely (1.6%) that someone would get a coin flip correct six times in a row, but it doesn't hold that the other 98.4% is represented by "knowing that the coin is fixed". The other 98.4% simply represents all the other outcomes that could have occurred. You get the same likelihood if you select any other specific singular outcome from guessing the result of six coin flips.
The betting behavior on Pinnacle is definitely peculiar. But there are alternatives to simply match-fixing scandal or someone is the stupidest person alive. To deny that can only be pigheaded stubbornness or a severe lack of imagination. See how those false dichotomies work?
Ok, you peaked my interest. What exactly are the other 98,4%, besides coin being rigged?
I think you are confusing two things here. There are lots of other possibilities for a singular betting line going beserk than match-fixing. That is correct. Maybe the Pinnacle system is completely screwed and spurts our random odds. Sure.
But, what are the odds of Pinnacle system spurting out random odds AND in every game that it spurted out the random odds, the match ended in the result it indicated? It's the exact same, 1,56%.
The combination of the two cannot be explained by anything else than foreknowledge of the outcome of the matches, or something else (1,56%): luck, broken odds-system (which is also luck!) etc.
I'm not really good at translating but here are the key points :
- None of the players were involved in match fixing
- There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing).
- Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed
- KeSPA is stepping up their effort in taking down illegal betting websites to prevent further incidents, and also in protecting the players from these brokers
- Until the case has been fully resolved please do not make inappropriate accusations to players and cause harm to them
- We will continue to communicate with the fans until the final decision is out and to prevent any future illegal acts.
EDIT : Apparently there was a report in some of the Korean news about the possible match fixing scandal, and that was what prompted KeSPA to make this statement
On the first point - how did Kespa come to this conclusion? Specifically for the losing players involved in the voided matches; what investigation if any occurred?
On the second point - If the players rejected the offer to match fix, why would the match fixers bet on the match anyway and lose money? It makes no sense. Obviously some players have rejected match fixing offers (Solar, MMA), but I would expect almost every Kespa player has received offers at some point.
On the third point, this is excellent news that people have been jailed in an investigation related to illegal betting/match fixing; can we have some details on whether they were people who were attempting to fix matches, did fix matches, ran illegal betting sites or whether it was for some other reason?
On the fourth point; what specific steps are being taken? I can claim i'm helping save endangered tiger habitats or whatever, but it doesn't mean I actually am unless I can provide details on how specifically i'm taking action to address the concern in question
On the fifth point; if Kespa would publicly release evidence exonerating the alleged match fixing players, we would be able to reach an informed conclusion if they are clearly innocent. There is some circumstantial evidence that five players are likely to be guilty (innovation, soulkey, san, super and marineking) , and overwhelming circumstantial evidence in one case (marineking), no evidence has been publicly released about how Kespa determined these players are innocent of match fixing, especially in the most egregious case (the other four cases were based more on impossible to be legitimate betting patterns + the player being bet against losing; in the marineking case there was also all of the odd ingame behaviour too)
On the sixth point; this statement is appreciated but doesn't really say anything, as fans we want more details on how you reached your conclusion that no match fixing has occurred in Kespa tournaments or it's a meaningless PR statement. For example, what specific steps did you take to investigate the Marineking vs Byul match? Did you watch the replay with Marineking while he explains his thought process and ask him if he'd be willing to show his bank statement and skype/bnet/fb/whatever chat logs? Were the people jailed for match fixing attempts interviewed about which players if any accepted their offers? If nobody accepted their offers and they were jailed anyway, where's the transcript of what happened there? If they've been jailed are they awaiting charges and the investigation is ongoing or is the trial over? If it's over, can we have a transcript if it's available to the public?
On another note, did Kespa ever contact Pinnacle to get an informed viewpoint on the betting lines and get relevant IP addresses etc for their investigation? If not, why not?
This statement is hugely disappointing in that they comprehensively state that no match fixing has occurred, yet offer no evidence or even details of how they came to that conclusion to support the assertion that no match fixing occurred.
On May 07 2015 21:27 RPR_Tempest wrote: People have already made up their minds. Nobody who thinks MarineKing match-fixed (pro tip: he didn't) is going to be persuaded by even KeSPA saying otherwise. This being despite the fact that these were the same people BEGGING for an official KeSPA investigation/statement. But when they don't agree with it they'll just disregard it.
Honestly, there was no possible way KeSPA was going to come out and say there was match fixing no matter what the truth is. It's KeSPA, they are extremely interested in the survival of SC2 in Korea after what happened with BW there. The idea that ALL players who were offered match fixing didn't do it despite the canceled matches over long periods of time just sounds like complete bullshit. I'm not talking about MKP specifically, but the idea that every single pro turned down the offers and "caused loss to the investors" sounds too good to be true. What does that even mean anyway, because the only way the match-fixing "investors" lose money is if the players agree then don't carry it out?
I want to believe this statement beacuse it's positive, and for the SC2 scene to survive we need to hope its true, but KeSPA is so shady in the past and has lied about so much bullshit that I simply find it hard to.
And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
On May 07 2015 20:27 Estancia wrote: - None of the players were involved in match fixing - There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing). - Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed - Until the case has been fully resolved please do not make inappropriate accusations to players and cause harm to them - We will continue to communicate with the fans until the final decision is out and to prevent any future illegal acts.
Those points alone make it pretty clear this is a response from them to do some form of damage control imo... Idk what to think of this whole situation anymore, especially on that last point :/
- None of the players were involved in match fixing
Sure. Well, let's hope people are too scared to try it again at least.
On May 07 2015 22:58 TheNewEra wrote: If the Korean Police jailed some of these Gamblers, Brokers. Shouldn't it be 'relatively' easy to gain information from them which progamer matchfixed if there is matchfixing going on?
You'd think so. But maybe they get persuaded not to do so for lower sentences. And they're not exactly the most trustworthy of people anyway
On May 07 2015 20:27 Estancia wrote: - None of the players were involved in match fixing - There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing). - Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed - Until the case has been fully resolved please do not make inappropriate accusations to players and cause harm to them - We will continue to communicate with the fans until the final decision is out and to prevent any future illegal acts.
Those points alone make it pretty clear this is a response from them to do some form of damage control imo... Idk what to think of this whole situation anymore. :/
imo the main problem is stopping it asap. If it's only a few players who fucked up on their own you can still cover it up as long as there are not a lot of other cases and it won't cause too many troubles.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or I the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Does that make sense?
I thought you were computing the probability that 6 matches would be voided, if they had a 50% chance of being voided. That would've been completely retarded. I misunderstood.
Yeah no problem mate. It was my fault for not explaining better, I was just frustrated. Still remembering the earlier threads and trying to explain coincidence, only to be spat on.
You deserve some of the criticism because you're creating false dichotomies to skew opinion to your preheld belief. Using your own example, it is highly unlikely (1.6%) that someone would get a coin flip correct six times in a row, but it doesn't hold that the other 98.4% is represented by "knowing that the coin is fixed". The other 98.4% simply represents all the other outcomes that could have occurred. You get the same likelihood if you select any other specific singular outcome from guessing the result of six coin flips.
The betting behavior on Pinnacle is definitely peculiar. But there are alternatives to simply match-fixing scandal or someone is the stupidest person alive. To deny that can only be pigheaded stubbornness or a severe lack of imagination. See how those false dichotomies work?
Ok, you peaked my interest. What exactly are the other 98,4%, besides coin being rigged?
I think you are confusing two things here. There are lots of other possibilities for a singular betting line going beserk than match-fixing. That is correct. Maybe the Pinnacle system is completely screwed and spurts our random odds. Sure.
But, what are the odds of Pinnacle system spurting out random odds AND in every game that it spurted out the random odds, the match ended in the result it indicated? It's the exact same, 1,56%.
The combination of the two cannot be explained by anything else than foreknowledge of the outcome of the matches, or something else (1,56%): luck, broken odds-system (which is also luck!) etc.
Sigh...
Pinnacle's system is NOT random - that's precisely why we're talking about this at all. I explicitly mention this in my post in the second paragraph.
The odds of the player who had the huge bulk of the betting support winning in each of the six suspected games is 1.56%.
I simply think it's illogical to be stuck with only two choices - either those players were paid to take dives or there's highly unlikely luck. It's certainly possible, for example, that those players were pressured to take dives by betters and refused as Kespa reported, but the offers threw them off their game or caused undue mental strain that made them play poorly. Or the players may face harassment by betting netizens before their matches who want them to lose, particularly players who are known for being mentally fragile like MarineKing. Those would be very different situations from match-fixing.
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets?
Both Flash and Innovation lost to the same build on the same map. Unless MKP literally stares at the proxy rather than just missing it on the edge of vision and then does nothing about it, the replay isn't going to be useful anyway.
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
At least 2 went the 'wrong' way. A Life game and some other one. Even though pinnacle didn't void them, the main action isn't on pinnacle.
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets?
He doesn't mention "Korean" anywhere? Pinnacle voided 5 bets (and another site at least one IIRC)
What I am wondering about is why an official Statement is coming from a facebook account. I thought every respectable Organization/Corporation has a website where they list their press releases, not a third-party site like facebook. At least that is my experience from having to find a 5-year-old press release for something I had to do at school.
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets?
He doesn't mention "Korean" anywhere? Pinnacle voided 5 bets (and another site at least one IIRC)
Kespa doesn't care about pinnacle they can't do anything about that. Why would Kespa be talking about a foreign site they can't do anything about?
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets?
Why does it matter in this case? If player is innocent and refused to throw, "investors" never bet against them, therefore they dont take any losses.
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets?
He doesn't mention "Korean" anywhere? Pinnacle voided 5 bets (and another site at least one IIRC)
Kespa doesn't care about pinnacle they can't do anything about that. Why would Kespa be talking about a foreign site they can't do anything about?
I suspect you have no idea what this is about :-S
- KeSPA is stepping up their effort in taking down illegal betting websites to prevent further incidents, and also in protecting the players from these brokers
I guess you were talking about this. Still, I don't see how "investors" could've lost any money
On May 07 2015 20:27 Estancia wrote: - None of the players were involved in match fixing - There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing). - Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed - Until the case has been fully resolved please do not make inappropriate accusations to players and cause harm to them - We will continue to communicate with the fans until the final decision is out and to prevent any future illegal acts.
Those points alone make it pretty clear this is a response from them to do some form of damage control imo... Idk what to think of this whole situation anymore. :/
imo the main problem is stopping it asap. If it's only a few players who fucked up on their own you can still cover it up as long as there are not a lot of other cases and it won't cause too many troubles.
This
Even drawing attention to it decreases the likelihood players will agree to fix matches because 'look at the things they're saying about the players who got accused of match fixing I don't want that to be me' factor plus Kespa now mentioning jail time for offenders, it will help dissuade vulnerable younger players from agreeing to matchfixing offers
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or I the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Does that make sense?
I thought you were computing the probability that 6 matches would be voided, if they had a 50% chance of being voided. That would've been completely retarded. I misunderstood.
Yeah no problem mate. It was my fault for not explaining better, I was just frustrated. Still remembering the earlier threads and trying to explain coincidence, only to be spat on.
You deserve some of the criticism because you're creating false dichotomies to skew opinion to your preheld belief. Using your own example, it is highly unlikely (1.6%) that someone would get a coin flip correct six times in a row, but it doesn't hold that the other 98.4% is represented by "knowing that the coin is fixed". The other 98.4% simply represents all the other outcomes that could have occurred. You get the same likelihood if you select any other specific singular outcome from guessing the result of six coin flips.
The betting behavior on Pinnacle is definitely peculiar. But there are alternatives to simply match-fixing scandal or someone is the stupidest person alive. To deny that can only be pigheaded stubbornness or a severe lack of imagination. See how those false dichotomies work?
Ok, you peaked my interest. What exactly are the other 98,4%, besides coin being rigged?
I think you are confusing two things here. There are lots of other possibilities for a singular betting line going beserk than match-fixing. That is correct. Maybe the Pinnacle system is completely screwed and spurts our random odds. Sure.
But, what are the odds of Pinnacle system spurting out random odds AND in every game that it spurted out the random odds, the match ended in the result it indicated? It's the exact same, 1,56%.
The combination of the two cannot be explained by anything else than foreknowledge of the outcome of the matches, or something else (1,56%): luck, broken odds-system (which is also luck!) etc.
Assuming the chance to win a game was 50/50 in all cases, it would indeed be a 1.56% chance that all bets just happened to be right by pure luck. I agree that it is unlikely to have happened through luck alone, but that does not definitely prove that it was matchfixing. To me, it always seemed that the betting lines moved right before the matches. It would not be inconceivable that maybe some people were tipped off on a player feeling like complete shit that day, or having insider knowledge on the plans for the match of both players, hence making it more like a 90/10 chance rather than 50/50. That moves the chance of being right all 6 times to 53%, which is still likely. I know these numbers are just odds I randomly made up, but then so are most of the other odds posted here. The only valid one we have is "it is unlikely the voiding of betting lines and it being right all 6 times was due to complete randomness".
It also struck me that the players affected were mostly players who were in the middle of or just at the beginning of a weaker period in their careers. They didn't just lose one game, they all started playing worse for a while. I'm pretty sure that players who matchfix one of their games don't also go on to lose 8 out of their next 10 games for fun. San made a comment after the game on how he didn't feel well and lost most of his games, Marineking was suffering from all the pressure in his team and lost most of his games, Innovation may or may not have something happen to him, as he lost his sharpness around the time he lost that first game, and Soulkey just got settled into an international team and still hasn't regained his 2013 form.
My point is that while I agree that this all happening through a faulty system and dumb luck is quite unlikely, there are more alternatives to get an unfair advantage in betting than just matchfixing. The players aren't to blame for going through a rough period in their lives/career, and if there's no actual proof of monetary or communicational traces, we should not unfairly place all the blame on the players. I'm open to the players having matchfixed, but I will only believe so when there is actual proof that suggests matchfixing specifically, rather than assumptions made based on statistics that can in no way definitely prove matchfixing.
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets?
He doesn't mention "Korean" anywhere? Pinnacle voided 5 bets (and another site at least one IIRC)
Kespa doesn't care about pinnacle they can't do anything about that. Why would Kespa be talking about a foreign site they can't do anything about?
Pinnacle publicly agreed to cooperate with a Kespa investigation. If matches were fixed, bets on said matches were placed on Pinnacle (which is part of why we know about them in the first place). They have IP addresses the bets came from; which could lead back to the bettors, which is important if Kespa are serious about fighting match fixing and illegal betting as they claim. Pinnacle can also help Kespa understand the evidence against their players in the voided matches from a mathematical standpoint.
Both parties have a vested interest in keeping esports clean in theory; whether Kespa do in practice is another matter (Kespa for their reputation and Pinnacle so they can offer bets on it and customers wont be afraid to bet on matches due to match fixing; growth of clean esports makes pinnacle money)
On May 07 2015 23:17 Hot_Bid wrote: And the "caused loss to investors" doesn't make sense also because in all the voided bets the match loser was the one that the crazy bettors all bet against despite insane odds, so how could they have lost money? wtf
What makes you think the korean betting sites voided the bets?
He doesn't mention "Korean" anywhere? Pinnacle voided 5 bets (and another site at least one IIRC)
Seems to be a confusion over this line. It refers to people who actually pay brokers to set up the match fixing.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
I am not statistics professor but I am a PhD student in statistics and I did TA for introductory statistical physics for 2nd year students. You want to know how is your math incoorect? I'll give you that it's true that 0,5^5 = 3,125 and 0,5^6 = 1,5625. That's about all that is correct about it. Anything you might conclude from it is otherwise ass pulled bullshit.
When medical tests are done to determine the chance of a vaccine to work or not, that is also bullshit. But at least that is not ass-pulled bullshit and people doing such "statistics" are aware of their enormous assumptions and the flaws of doing numerical analysis based on this.
Statistics are only good at predicting the behaviour of deterministic microscopic objects; they're not so great with molecules and best for subatomic particles or photon behaviour even though we still make large assumptions in those cases and then results are still subject to interpretation.
In sports and other fields people use "statistics" to determine trends and the risk involved with some decisions based on past results, none of those is any good to predict the outcome of anything because it's humans involved.
Let's say SC had only 1 race and player A had a better winrate than player B. This does not mean player A is more likely to win if he plays against player B. It doesn't work that way because there are an undetermined number of intangible variables involved, and no one can say for sure if the winrate is even a variable involved in the outcome of that interaction.
If you think you found a way to numerically determine the outcome of an interaction between two human beings, you should get a nobel prize.
Don't try using "statistics" as proof of anything involving people, I maintain the only thing that can tell you if a player matchfixed is either a confession or records of communications and money transactions.
The only ones who blindly follow statistics are businessmen and idiots. Statistics are a tool, not proof; anyone with a science degree would know that. All you idiots are the same that believe correlation = causation.
One thing worth considering is that not all of the suspicious games were fixed, but some were. It's far more likely either all or none of them were, but that's also possible.
Also worth noting in the cases that the betting steam went the wrong way (or case, I can only think of Byul/Terror) the odds weren't skewed anywhere near as much; Terror went from being a 2-1 underdog to very slight favourite; and this was before Byul's current run of form and Terror did beat him the previous time they played. It also could have been match fixers trying to mess with Pinnacle's algorithm so future bets on matches that are actually fixed don't get cancelled
If you ask any sportsbettor; the odds for Creator to be a huge favourite in the first map and huge underdog for the series vs Soulkey are pretty much impossible without foul play; the map 1 betting line is many, many standard deviations away from what it should be based on the series line; there's a good chance it's statistically more likely for Earth to get hit by a civilisation ending meteor today (I'll actually do the math if someone insists; but it's a valid comparison)
Soulkey was a -219 favourite for the series (he was -300 until close to game time; this small move makes sense if only map 1 is fixed)
Creator was something like a +150 to +200 underdog for map 1 minutes before the game, then when Pinnacle raises the max betting limit as they do just before matches someone smashes the Creator map 1 line over and over until Creator is a -290 favourite and it would have gone further if Pinnacle didn't take the line down and cancel bets before the match. Steam to this degree without a real reason literally doesn't happen in sportsbetting. Ever... it only makes sense if Map 1 and only Map 1 is fixed from a statistical perspective.
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
I am not statistics professor but I am a PhD student in statistics and I did TA for introductory statistical physics for 2nd year students. You want to know how is your math incoorect? I'll give you that it's true that 0,5^5 = 3,125 and 0,5^6 = 1,5625. That's about all that is correct about it. Anything you might conclude from it is otherwise ass pulled bullshit.
When medical tests are done to determine the chance of a vaccine to work or not, that is also bullshit. But at least that is not ass-pulled bullshit and people doing such "statistics" are aware of their enormous assumptions and the flaws of doing numerical analysis based on this.
Statistics are only good at predicting the behaviour of deterministic microscopic objects; they're not so great with molecules and best for subatomic particles or photon behaviour even though we still make large assumptions in those cases and then results are still subject to interpretation.
In sports and other fields people use "statistics" to determine trends and the risk involved with some decisions based on past results, none of those is any good to predict the outcome of anything because it's humans involved.
Let's say SC had only 1 race and player A had a better winrate than player B. This does not mean player A is more likely to win if he plays against player B. It doesn't work that way because there are an undetermined number of intangible variables involved, and no one can say for sure if the winrate is even a variable involved in the outcome of that interaction.
If you think you found a way to numerically determine the outcome of an interaction between two human beings, you should get a nobel prize.
Don't try using "statistics" as proof of anything involving people, I maintain the only thing that can tell you if a player matchfixed is either a confession or records of communications and money transactions.
Yea I didn't do my M.sc in english, so statistics might have been wrong word to use. I don't really know the proper english terms. Probabilities? Anything else you wrote makes no sense, read my earlier post where I illustrated it.
Math doesn't lie; while it's possible no matches were fixed it's extremely unlikely based on the betting patterns we witnessed.
What we should be doing is asking all of the followup questions I posted in my first post in this thread. Without additional details; Kespa's statement, while a step in the right direction, doesn't actually provide us with any relevant information on how they reached their conclusion that no matches were fixed. For us to take their statement seriously, they need to provide the evidence that they used to reach said conclusion, elaborate on how the investigation was conducted, etc.
If the final statement is just as vague (silly even, are things lost in translation or something?) I hope "important" people will demand answers to some critical questions.
On May 07 2015 23:57 Swoopae wrote: Math doesn't lie; while it's possible no matches were fixed it's extremely unlikely based on the betting patterns we witnessed.
What we should be doing is asking all of the followup questions I posted in my first post in this thread. Without additional details; Kespa's statement, while a step in the right direction, doesn't actually provide us with any relevant information on how they reached their conclusion that no matches were fixed. For us to take their statement seriously, they need to provide the evidence that they used to reach said conclusion, elaborate on how the investigation was conducted, etc.
Asking for transparency from KeSPA is like asking for a post-victory striptease from INnoVation. Unnatural and not gonna happen.
On May 07 2015 22:22 maGicc wrote: Any statement like "players were not involved" just sounds like officer's Barbrady's "Okay move along, move along people, there's nothing to see here!"
Atleast it's not Chief Wiggum: "Okay folks show’s over. Nothing to see here, show’s o-oh my God, a horrible plane crash match fixing! Hey everybody, get a load of this flaming wreckage! Come on, crowd around. Crowd around, don’t be shy, crowd around."
Altho I still fear KeSPA might have to do just that eventually.
On May 08 2015 00:08 TBone- wrote: I'm really thankful we can put this behind us and that KeSPa officially investigated.
Yes i am glad everything got resolved. All the bad shady gambler-investors are behind bars and they wont temp the innocent hardworking players no more.
On May 07 2015 23:49 The_Masked_Shrimp wrote: If you think you found a way to numerically determine the outcome of an interaction between two human beings, you should get a nobel prize.
Had to still comment on this one. I wouldn't get a Nobel. It's already been done millions of times. Wisdom of the crowds (also known as collective intelligence) does it every day in every sports booker. If you want to read more about it, for example James Surowiecki covers it pretty well in his 2005 book The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few.
On May 07 2015 23:49 The_Masked_Shrimp wrote: If you think you found a way to numerically determine the outcome of an interaction between two human beings, you should get a nobel prize.
Had to still comment on this one. I wouldn't get a Nobel. It's already been done millions of times. Wisdom of the crowds (also known as collective intelligence) does it every day in every sports booker. If you want to read more about it, for example James Surowiecki covers it pretty well in his 2005 book The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few.
My comment refered to the outcome of a match between two people. Not a crowd. And what a crowd think of the outcome of a match has no impact on said match.
Also crowd stats are not so well developed yet and are on the same reliability scale as medical stats. Some people making money out of it does not make it more reliable btw.
On May 07 2015 23:57 Swoopae wrote: Math doesn't lie; while it's possible no matches were fixed it's extremely unlikely based on the betting patterns we witnessed.
What we should be doing is asking all of the followup questions I posted in my first post in this thread. Without additional details; Kespa's statement, while a step in the right direction, doesn't actually provide us with any relevant information on how they reached their conclusion that no matches were fixed. For us to take their statement seriously, they need to provide the evidence that they used to reach said conclusion, elaborate on how the investigation was conducted, etc.
Asking for transparency from KeSPA is like asking for a post-victory striptease from INnoVation. Unnatural and not gonna happen.
Considering how KeSPA handled the WC3 and BW scandals and the domino effect it had on the scene over there (ofc there were other variables too). Perhaps KeSPA does want to sweep such things under the rug. I'd love to look at the reports of this police investigation and see what they looked at and what proof they found against the people they jailed.
So I guess they were jailed for mischief. They would need significant proof and see where money was going or written exchanges to do such things.
Why are we only just now getting a statement? And how can they possibly expect anyone to believe that "none of the players were involved in match fixing" ......
The only thing of substance is that people were jailed, which is more than what I expected from KeSPA. The only thing to do is see how it pans out I guess.
On May 08 2015 00:28 SC2Towelie wrote: Why are we only just now getting a statement? And how can they possibly expect anyone to believe that "none of the players were involved in match fixing" ......
considering how much suspicion and the fact they actually jailed people without so much as surfacing a report. yeah it's very hard to believe.
On May 08 2015 00:30 ZigguratOfUr wrote: The only thing of substance is that people were jailed, which is more than what I expected from KeSPA. The only thing to do is see how it pans out I guess.
it was the police. not KeSPA. KeSPA jail is fictional o;
I hope someone at least bought statistics dinner and drinks before the abuse it's had to endure in this thread because some of y'all didn't even bother to lube up before bending it over.
On May 08 2015 00:28 SC2Towelie wrote: Why are we only just now getting a statement? And how can they possibly expect anyone to believe that "none of the players were involved in match fixing" ......
reddit mentioned " Apparently there was a report in some of the Korean news about the possible match fixing scandal, and that was what prompted KeSPA to make this statement "
-Every single time the betting lines were heavily skewed, they correctly predicted the outcome of the match. -Kespa is saying that was entirely coincidental. -Everyone who is "relieved" by Kespa's statement agrees that it was entirely coincidental.
On May 08 2015 00:40 Popkiller wrote: So, just so I have the facts straight...
-Every single time the betting lines were heavily skewed, they correctly predicted the outcome of the match. -Kespa is saying that was entirely coincidental. -Everyone who is "relieved" by Kespa's statement agrees that it was entirely coincidental.
Am I off on anything?
Ye i dont think its correct to say that "Kespa is saying that was entirely coincidental". Its more like Kespa did not acknowledge it or just does not care about the voids.
If the info about "report in some of the Korean news about the possible match fixing scandal" is true, than more likely that whole statement is just a rushed out damage control and nothing else, more or less.
I'm sadly not convinced Happy they made a statement though.
I would love it if we could see the evidence that apparently MVP and Kespa has. If it's sensitive information then someone trustworthy and non-biased could look at it. As it is, both Kespa and the teams are hurt more (short term at least) if the matchfixing is revealed to be true.
Would be very interesting to know to what degree the police are involved.
The reason Kespa made the statement by now is that there was an incident that a match-fixing broker was illegally confined by the match-fixing investor after the broker's deal to the progamer(Soulkey) to match-fix was denied, and the investor lost his bet. Report on that: http://www.gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA554b2e40e08a9 결과적으로 A 선수가 제의를 거부해 승부 조작이 무산되자 돈을 날린 투자자는 브로커를 감금한 것. 위협을 느낀 브로커가 경기도 경찰청 광역수사대에 구조를 요청하면서 이번 사건이 경찰에 의해 본격 조사에 착수, A 선수는 조만간 검찰에 출두해 자세한 내용을 밝힐 것으로 보인다.
So, there was an actual investigation on this by the police about the match-fixing( and probably more focused on the confinement). And consequently, Kespa released the statement as this had a physical incident and investigation unlike some online betting site outside of Korea pulling bets you know who to investigate other than the gamers.
This should make some idiots STFU before coming 10 minutes after a match fixing note is released just to cry "OMG, San is a MF", "OMG, why, MarineKing, why".
On May 08 2015 01:00 egernya wrote: The reason Kespa made the statement by now is that there was an incident that a match-fixing broker was illegally confined by the match-fixing investor after the broker's deal to the progamer(Soulkey) to match-fix was denied, and the investor lost his bet. Report on that: http://www.gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA554b2e40e08a9 결과적으로 A 선수가 제의를 거부해 승부 조작이 무산되자 돈을 날린 투자자는 브로커를 감금한 것. 위협을 느낀 브로커가 경기도 경찰청 광역수사대에 구조를 요청하면서 이번 사건이 경찰에 의해 본격 조사에 착수, A 선수는 조만간 검찰에 출두해 자세한 내용을 밝힐 것으로 보인다.
So, there was an actual investigation on this by the police about the match-fixing( and probably more focused on the confinement). And consequently, Kespa released the statement as this had a physical incident and investigation unlike some online betting site outside of Korea pulling bets you know who to investigate other than the gamers.
Do we know if the police investigated Soulkey (like chat logs/bank account etc) or not?
On May 08 2015 01:00 egernya wrote: The reason Kespa made the statement by now is that there was an incident that a match-fixing broker was illegally confined by the match-fixing investor after the broker's deal to the progamer(Soulkey) to match-fix was denied, and the investor lost his bet. Report on that: http://www.gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA554b2e40e08a9 결과적으로 A 선수가 제의를 거부해 승부 조작이 무산되자 돈을 날린 투자자는 브로커를 감금한 것. 위협을 느낀 브로커가 경기도 경찰청 광역수사대에 구조를 요청하면서 이번 사건이 경찰에 의해 본격 조사에 착수, A 선수는 조만간 검찰에 출두해 자세한 내용을 밝힐 것으로 보인다.
So, there was an actual investigation on this by the police about the match-fixing( and probably more focused on the confinement). And consequently, Kespa released the statement as this had a physical incident and investigation unlike some online betting site outside of Korea pulling bets you know who to investigate other than the gamers.
Do we know if the police investigated Soulkey (like chat logs/bank account etc) or not?
We don't know if they did yet. (They didn't release the full/final statement yet, though they will soon, so we may know.) However, at least we know that the one got locked up would have testified that Soulkey denied the offer.
On May 08 2015 01:00 egernya wrote: The reason Kespa made the statement by now is that there was an incident that a match-fixing broker was illegally confined by the match-fixing investor after the broker's deal to the progamer(Soulkey) to match-fix was denied, and the investor lost his bet. Report on that: http://www.gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA554b2e40e08a9 결과적으로 A 선수가 제의를 거부해 승부 조작이 무산되자 돈을 날린 투자자는 브로커를 감금한 것. 위협을 느낀 브로커가 경기도 경찰청 광역수사대에 구조를 요청하면서 이번 사건이 경찰에 의해 본격 조사에 착수, A 선수는 조만간 검찰에 출두해 자세한 내용을 밝힐 것으로 보인다.
So, there was an actual investigation on this by the police about the match-fixing( and probably more focused on the confinement). And consequently, Kespa released the statement as this had a physical incident and investigation unlike some online betting site outside of Korea pulling bets you know who to investigate other than the gamers.
Does that explain how they guy lost his bet if Soulkey didn't accept?
On May 08 2015 01:00 egernya wrote: The reason Kespa made the statement by now is that there was an incident that a match-fixing broker was illegally confined by the match-fixing investor after the broker's deal to the progamer(Soulkey) to match-fix was denied, and the investor lost his bet. Report on that: http://www.gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA554b2e40e08a9 결과적으로 A 선수가 제의를 거부해 승부 조작이 무산되자 돈을 날린 투자자는 브로커를 감금한 것. 위협을 느낀 브로커가 경기도 경찰청 광역수사대에 구조를 요청하면서 이번 사건이 경찰에 의해 본격 조사에 착수, A 선수는 조만간 검찰에 출두해 자세한 내용을 밝힐 것으로 보인다.
So, there was an actual investigation on this by the police about the match-fixing( and probably more focused on the confinement). And consequently, Kespa released the statement as this had a physical incident and investigation unlike some online betting site outside of Korea pulling bets you know who to investigate other than the gamers.
Do we know if the police investigated Soulkey (like chat logs/bank account etc) or not?
We don't know if they did yet. (They didn't release the full/final statement yet, though they will soon, so we may know.) However, at least we know that the one got locked up would have testified that Soulkey denied the offer.
Ok, I feel that is a big difference! Thanks for the translation, please keep up updated!
On May 08 2015 01:00 egernya wrote: The reason Kespa made the statement by now is that there was an incident that a match-fixing broker was illegally confined by the match-fixing investor after the broker's deal to the progamer(Soulkey) to match-fix was denied, and the investor lost his bet. Report on that: http://www.gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA554b2e40e08a9 결과적으로 A 선수가 제의를 거부해 승부 조작이 무산되자 돈을 날린 투자자는 브로커를 감금한 것. 위협을 느낀 브로커가 경기도 경찰청 광역수사대에 구조를 요청하면서 이번 사건이 경찰에 의해 본격 조사에 착수, A 선수는 조만간 검찰에 출두해 자세한 내용을 밝힐 것으로 보인다.
So, there was an actual investigation on this by the police about the match-fixing( and probably more focused on the confinement). And consequently, Kespa released the statement as this had a physical incident and investigation unlike some online betting site outside of Korea pulling bets you know who to investigate other than the gamers.
Does that explain how they guy lost his bet if Soulkey didn't accept?
It seems the investor made a bet provided that soulkey would accept. Maybe there was some miscommunication.
On May 08 2015 01:00 egernya wrote: The reason Kespa made the statement by now is that there was an incident that a match-fixing broker was illegally confined by the match-fixing investor after the broker's deal to the progamer(Soulkey) to match-fix was denied, and the investor lost his bet. Report on that: http://www.gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA554b2e40e08a9 결과적으로 A 선수가 제의를 거부해 승부 조작이 무산되자 돈을 날린 투자자는 브로커를 감금한 것. 위협을 느낀 브로커가 경기도 경찰청 광역수사대에 구조를 요청하면서 이번 사건이 경찰에 의해 본격 조사에 착수, A 선수는 조만간 검찰에 출두해 자세한 내용을 밝힐 것으로 보인다.
So, there was an actual investigation on this by the police about the match-fixing( and probably more focused on the confinement). And consequently, Kespa released the statement as this had a physical incident and investigation unlike some online betting site outside of Korea pulling bets you know who to investigate other than the gamers.
Does that explain how they guy lost his bet if Soulkey didn't accept?
I'm guessing this is the SK match where the bets were voided, so maybe he didn't lose his money, but he didn't win either. (I'd like to emphasize, SK did lose that game, like the bets predicted)
Either that, or there is yet another match SK was offered to throw.
Holy shit. This scene is so fucking pathetic to still sit there with 100% certainty that MK match fixed. Even though theres chat logs to prove they denied the money, that then brokers were jailed, and is launching a campaign to shut down illegal betting site (I presume with help from Police). Yeah pure KESPA PR bullshit right? Fucking idiots.
On May 08 2015 01:57 orllyfools wrote: Holy shit. This scene is so fucking pathetic to still sit there with 100% certainty that MK match fixed. Even though theres chat logs to prove they denied the money, that then brokers were jailed, and is launching a campaign to shut down illegal betting site (I presume with help from Police). Yeah pure KESPA PR bullshit right? Fucking idiots.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Is this about Soulkey vs Creator game 1 or another Soulkey game? Thanks for the clarification.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Is this about Soulkey vs Creator game 1 or another Soulkey game? Thanks for the clarification.
I'm not sure which match was offered but according to a rumour between korean communities, it's a match of the KeSPA Cup.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Is this about Soulkey vs Creator game 1 or another Soulkey game? Thanks for the clarification.
I'm not sure which match was offered but according to a rumour between korean communities, it's a match of the KeSPA Cup.
So the match that Soulkey refused to fix was not map 1 against Creator. In that case, that might explain how the investor lost money betting on Soulkey even when Soulkey refused to throw.
Assuming Soulkey has thrown games in the past, there could be a working relationship between Soulkey and this broker. It's possible that the broker put money on another game before asking Soulkey to throw, assuming Soulkey would do it. If Soulkey refused, then the broker might lose their money.
Huge LOL at clowns that still think MKP is innocent. It's one thing to say that it hasn't been proven, but there's something seriously wrong with how your brain works if you think it's more likely that he didn't match fix than that he did.
Kespa could release a replay that shows MKP moving the map over the building spine crawler and people here would still be like "well that only proves that he reacted poorly to the cheese, it doesn't prove match fixing." Utterly pathetic.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Is this about Soulkey vs Creator game 1 or another Soulkey game? Thanks for the clarification.
I'm not sure which match was offered but according to a rumour between korean communities, it's a match of the KeSPA Cup.
So the match that Soulkey refused to fix was not map 1 against Creator. In that case, that might explain how the investor lost money betting on Soulkey even when Soulkey refused to throw.
Assuming Soulkey has thrown games in the past, there could be a working relationship between Soulkey and this broker. It's possible that the broker put money on another game before asking Soulkey to throw, assuming Soulkey would do it. If Soulkey refused, then the broker might lose their money.
That sounds logical. Soulkey might have refused to fix more games after the first void spooked him. Just pure speculation though, I hope someone gets more info from korean sites.
On May 07 2015 21:27 RPR_Tempest wrote: People have already made up their minds. Nobody who thinks MarineKing match-fixed (pro tip: he didn't) is going to be persuaded by even KeSPA saying otherwise. This being despite the fact that these were the same people BEGGING for an official KeSPA investigation/statement. But when they don't agree with it they'll just disregard it.
Yeah mate, pro tip: no one has been named, and no details about that game has been revealed, so pro tip in a pro tip: he probably still did.
On May 08 2015 02:54 goofyballer wrote: Huge LOL at clowns that still think MKP is innocent. It's one thing to say that it hasn't been proven, but there's something seriously wrong with how your brain works if you think it's more likely that he didn't match fix than that he did.
Kespa could release a replay that shows MKP moving the map over the building spine crawler and people here would still be like "well that only proves that he reacted poorly to the cheese, it doesn't prove match fixing." Utterly pathetic.
Posts like these calm me down. Good to know at the very least there's one ther sane person left.
The main thing to read from this is that kespa IS taking this seriously.
Match fixing can't be proven (IN COURT) without someone admitting it. It's less likely to happen (or continue to happen - whichever hat you wear) with players knowing it's investigated.
On May 07 2015 22:03 maGicc wrote: Guess Rekrul was on point when he said that its in Kespa's best interest to cover it as much as possible.
But i guess some people will buy it and even will think that MatchFixKing.prime is innocent and "just bad"
Please go away with your witch hunt and leave actually intelligent people to deal with this stuff
Funny you should say that because most of the intelligent people here are rightfully skeptical given the facts at hand and are also rightfully wary of organizations looking out for their own interests in their official statements. Obviously no one can be 100% sure of anything but people have good cause to be suspicious.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Is this about Soulkey vs Creator game 1 or another Soulkey game? Thanks for the clarification.
I'm not sure which match was offered but according to a rumour between korean communities, it's a match of the KeSPA Cup.
So the match that Soulkey refused to fix was not map 1 against Creator. In that case, that might explain how the investor lost money betting on Soulkey even when Soulkey refused to throw.
Assuming Soulkey has thrown games in the past, there could be a working relationship between Soulkey and this broker. It's possible that the broker put money on another game before asking Soulkey to throw, assuming Soulkey would do it. If Soulkey refused, then the broker might lose their money.
It's possible. Still there's no way to get who was the broker and if Soulkey or other players said OK to the broker. Btw, Unlike MKP's case, The investigation conducted by the Government authority is going on(Gyeonggi Provincial Police Agency, According to the article). So if Soulkey accepted the broker's offer in the past, he will be surly punished by not only Kespa but also Korean law.
I'm not 100% convinced the prior suspicious matches were not matchfixing, but as long as they're actually serious about investigation and punishment going forward, and there are no more suspicious matches in the future, I'm content.
Also, this is a good point to address some of the underlying issues that led/could lead to matchfixing in the scene in general. Namely better salary, better teamhouse conditions, and a more fair prizepool distribution in the Korean scene. For some reason Korean tournaments seem to have very top heavy prizepools, and to spread that wealth around a little more might alleviate some of the financial desperation that can lead a progamer into temptation.
If a broker / dealer got sent to jail and the police are involved then I don't know what else you want from Kespa, that's about as far as you can go with out witchhunting.
On May 08 2015 04:20 Caihead wrote: If a broker / dealer got sent to jail and the police are involved then I don't know what else you want from Kespa, that's about as far as you can go with out witchhunting.
The broker called the police himself after being confined/ threatened by some investors; KeSPA had nothing to do with it. They released this statement because their hands were forced (because it involved the questioning of SK as a witness).
So, I reviewed the OP. I found that it says 'Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed' but in the statement, there's no mention that someone went into jail(Maybe the OP author will correct me if i missed it). It says the association will cooperate with the investigation and will take all proper actions when the end result comes out. (경찰의 수사에도 적극 협조하는 것은 물론 경찰의 최종 수사결과가 나오면 그에 상응하는 모든 조치를 다할 것입니다.) which means the investigation is still in progress.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Why would Kespa throw an investigation and release a statement about a player like Soulkey? He's neither on a Kespa team nor did the allegations concern S2SL or SPL
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Why would Kespa throw an investigation and release a statement about a player like Soulkey? He's neither on a Kespa team nor did the allegations concern S2SL or SPL
On May 08 2015 06:12 padiseal2 wrote: Why would Kespa throw an investigation and release a statement about a player like Soulkey? He's neither on a Kespa team nor did the allegations concern S2SL or SPL
They concern Kespa Cup. Do you think Kespa runs S2SL but not the Kespa Cup?
On May 07 2015 20:42 showstealer1829 wrote: The statement is good and all but I do have one question. Do they have any proof that the players rejected the approach besides "They said they rejected it"? Because that still doesn't explain the shifts in lines and the infamous MK match.
Don't get me wrong. I WANT to believe but my "PR Bullshit" senses are tingling
None of the players confessed and there are no record (wire, email etc) of them accepting. What else can you say? It's perfectly fine not to name individual players, but match-fixing did occur within 99% certainty (pure statistics, probability of voided bets + match results).
You have no clue what statistics are.
You are just voicing an opinion on something which is based on intangible variables. It's crazy how many people can blindly believe into something without having the incontestable proof that thing is real.
The one and only real conclusion you can pull out of betting lines shifts is that people massively thought a player would win other the other. That's it, that's the only incontestable result you will get from it, anything else is pure speculation, opinions, no matter what ass-pulled argument, numbers or pseudo-logic you may come up with.
The thing you need to know if there was match fixing is a trace of the communication of the player and a trace of the money he may have accepted for match fixing. And if it's also true that it would be stupid to blindly believe he didn't matchfix, you might as well not ruin the career and publicly bash someone for something he might have done...
Was it 5 or 6 voided bets? I might have been wrong thinking 6, but anyway:
0,5^5 = 3,125% 0,5^6 = 1,5625%
That's assuming 50-50 odds, while Creator for example was pretty big underdog. How is that math incorrect?
Just for lols, what are you trying to compute here? :')
The probability of all voided matches ending with the result they were heavily bet on, being result of pure luck.
Let's illustrate. If I post here a number between 1-10 and then a machine randomly puts out a number between 1 and 10, the odds of me being right is 10%. (as illustrated with 0,5 assuming 50-50 odds between players on average)
Now if I do the same thing 5 or 6 times in a row (like the voided bets resulted), the odds of me being just lucky and getting it right are:
0,1^5 = 0,00001 = 0,01%
So either I was extremely lucky (0,01%) or the machine was rigged and I knew which number is going to come out (99,99%).
Does that make sense?
Your chances of being correct 5 times in a row might be 0.0001% but each guess still has a 10% of being correct since they all happen independent of each other. Being correct in one attempt doesn't make you more or less likely to be correct in another. I think you are confusing a number of events with a series of events and the probability of each voided bet being match-fixed should be considered separately.
Where did the 50-50 odds come from? It reminds me of that one guy who thought the odds of the large hadron collider destroying the world was 50-50 because it either would or wouldn't.
On May 08 2015 06:12 padiseal2 wrote: Why would Kespa throw an investigation and release a statement about a player like Soulkey? He's neither on a Kespa team nor did the allegations concern S2SL or SPL
They concern Kespa Cup. Do you think Kespa runs S2SL but not the Kespa Cup?
Well, Kespa runs many tournaments and also manages teams and players. But this is not important. Because these match fixing scandals can effect very badly to Korean SC2 leagues, Kespa always takes it seriously no matter what team or what league he is in.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Why would Kespa throw an investigation and release a statement about a player like Soulkey? He's neither on a Kespa team nor did the allegations concern S2SL or SPL
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Why would Kespa throw an investigation and release a statement about a player like Soulkey? He's neither on a Kespa team nor did the allegations concern S2SL or SPL
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Is this about Soulkey vs Creator game 1 or another Soulkey game? Thanks for the clarification.
I'm not sure which match was offered but according to a rumour between korean communities, it's a match of the KeSPA Cup.
The guys wanted a Kespa statement ASAP when there wasn't one. Now that there is a statement, they are not happy with it, and the guys ask for replays and whatnot.
And by the way, there is so much panic about Korean matchfixing: they demand permaban onto MKP and other Koreans. But here in our scene there was an obvious case of matchfixing and direct bribe, with evident proof (gungfubanda case), and what happened? 1 season ban because "he was a child". And in the MKP case, when there is no direct evidence, just mere suspects, you guys overreact? lol
If the authorities (Kespa) didn't find anything, why still going on with the drama? Let´s not forget that Kespa is a SK's government agency, not some random guy on the Internet. If they state that there is no matchfixing, so be it.
On May 07 2015 21:27 RPR_Tempest wrote: People have already made up their minds. Nobody who thinks MarineKing match-fixed (pro tip: he didn't) is going to be persuaded by even KeSPA saying otherwise. This being despite the fact that these were the same people BEGGING for an official KeSPA investigation/statement. But when they don't agree with it they'll just disregard it.
bad point imo. He could've matched fixed or maybe not. Personally, I say there's a higher chance that he did than didn't but at least Kespa is looking into the overall allegations so we're going somewhere.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Assuming this post is reliable this makes Kepsa seem like an even bigger joke than we originally thought.
'MATCH FIXING? NO, THAT NEVER HAPPENED' 'Sir, what about the game between Mari----' 'NOPE, DAMAGE WAS DEALT TO THE INVESTORS. DEFINITELY NEVER ACCUSE PEOPLE OF MATCH FIXING IT HURTS THEIR IMAGE. K PEACE OUT' queue:
On May 08 2015 01:00 egernya wrote: The reason Kespa made the statement by now is that there was an incident that a match-fixing broker was illegally confined by the match-fixing investor after the broker's deal to the progamer(Soulkey) to match-fix was denied, and the investor lost his bet. Report on that: http://www.gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA554b2e40e08a9 결과적으로 A 선수가 제의를 거부해 승부 조작이 무산되자 돈을 날린 투자자는 브로커를 감금한 것. 위협을 느낀 브로커가 경기도 경찰청 광역수사대에 구조를 요청하면서 이번 사건이 경찰에 의해 본격 조사에 착수, A 선수는 조만간 검찰에 출두해 자세한 내용을 밝힐 것으로 보인다.
So, there was an actual investigation on this by the police about the match-fixing( and probably more focused on the confinement). And consequently, Kespa released the statement as this had a physical incident and investigation unlike some online betting site outside of Korea pulling bets you know who to investigate other than the gamers.
Does that explain how they guy lost his bet if Soulkey didn't accept?
also all of the money was bet on soulkey to lose match 1 and he did lose match 1 so how exactly was money lost by bettors, the bulk of the money was wagered on soulkey to lose game 1
...and if soulkey didn't accept why did the bettor make the bets? Unless Soulkey accepted then later reneged, that would make sense
Just read the bit about the money being lost potentially on another soulkey match not the game 1 vs creator. That's interesting. Does anyone who speaks Korean have any info on which match specifically it was? Maybe Soulkey agreed to throw another match in the Kespa cup but got cold feet due to the Code A void and thats how the match fixer lost his money? Do we have any info on how the match fixer was caught and what led to his arrest?
Hopefully the truth will come out, we're on the right path now.
Hopefully Kespa will also answer some of my questions from the first post I made in thread. This isn't just about Soulkey, 5 players had matches voided and if one of them had contact with match fixers in any capacity surely Kespa and/or the police should investigate whether any of the others have any ties to the alleged match fixer who is in jail now
At this point I think we just need to ask questions about how the investigation is being conducted and just ensure it is being conducted in a manner that will lead to any match fixing actually being exposed
On May 08 2015 07:50 Swoopae wrote: Just read the bit about the money being lost potentially on another soulkey match not the game 1 vs creator. That's interesting. Does anyone who speaks Korean have any info on which match specifically it was? Maybe Soulkey agreed to throw another match in the Kespa cup but got cold feet due to the Code A void and thats how the match fixer lost his money? Do we have any info on how the match fixer was caught and what led to his arrest?
Hopefully the truth will come out, we're on the right path now.
Hopefully Kespa will also answer some of my questions from the first post I made in thread. This isn't just about Soulkey, 5 players had matches voided and if one of them had contact with match fixers in any capacity surely Kespa and/or the police should investigate whether any of the others have any ties to the alleged match fixer who is in jail now
At this point I think we just need to ask questions about how the investigation is being conducted and just ensure it is being conducted in a manner that will lead to any match fixing actually being exposed
Apparently the broker called the police when he was held against his will by angry bettors. KeSPA just needed to make a statement because it was SC2 related/ SK was involved. Hopefully KeSPA is indeed conducting a thorough investigation but this first statement doesn't bode too well imo..
Fascinating situation. Sounds like a situation where Soulkey had agreed to throw a game and reneged (whether it was his first time agreeing to throw a game or not is another matter, and seems unlikely given the void he was involved in fairly recently)
If he reneged on an agreement to throw a match (without such an agreement how would this situation arise) then it seems likely that's because of the microscope that match fixing is under, especially given Soulkey was involved in one of the suspicious matches recently. If the reneged upon agreement was at the Kespa cup as rumoured (source, anyone?), the match in question should either be the series against Parting or more likely Map 1 against Parting.
I assume between the broker and the bettors they would have access to a pretty extensive list of fixed matches if this wasn't a first time thing for them, and if the bettors turned on the broker, one side or the other should talk sooner or later. Hopefully the Korean police can cut someone on one side or the other a deal in exchange for evidence of which matches if any were fixed so that they can investigate properly and find both any players involved as well as the key figures in the match fixing side of things.
On May 08 2015 08:50 Swoopae wrote: Fascinating situation. Sounds like a situation where Soulkey had agreed to throw a game and reneged (whether it was his first time agreeing to throw a game or not is another matter, and seems unlikely given the void he was involved in fairly recently)
If he reneged on an agreement to throw a match (without such an agreement how would this situation arise) then it seems likely that's because of the microscope that match fixing is under, especially given Soulkey was involved in one of the suspicious matches recently. If the reneged upon agreement was at the Kespa cup as rumoured (source, anyone?), the match in question should either be the series against Parting or more likely Map 1 against Parting.
I assume between the broker and the bettors they would have access to a pretty extensive list of fixed matches if this wasn't a first time thing for them, and if the bettors turned on the broker, one side or the other should talk sooner or later. Hopefully the Korean police can cut someone on one side or the other a deal in exchange for evidence of which matches if any were fixed so that they can investigate properly and find both any players involved as well as the key figures in the match fixing side of things.
The quotes are saying that SK never agreed to throw this game. Is that possible? Would the "broker" have taken anyones money if he hadn't already gotten SK's agreement?
Great so rather than acknowledge any wrongdoing on the players end they claim they arrested some of the brokers. So with this revelation does this mean all of this is behind kespa, the players and their teams? Doubtful since the collusion is pretty high up. Likely outcome a couple players have to play witness and maybe one or two big names goes down to end this since KESPA chose this strategy. Other possible outcome nobody hears anything else about this and they pick better actors for their match fixing? Maybe a mixture of both?
On May 08 2015 08:50 Swoopae wrote: Fascinating situation. Sounds like a situation where Soulkey had agreed to throw a game and reneged (whether it was his first time agreeing to throw a game or not is another matter, and seems unlikely given the void he was involved in fairly recently)
If he reneged on an agreement to throw a match (without such an agreement how would this situation arise) then it seems likely that's because of the microscope that match fixing is under, especially given Soulkey was involved in one of the suspicious matches recently. If the reneged upon agreement was at the Kespa cup as rumoured (source, anyone?), the match in question should either be the series against Parting or more likely Map 1 against Parting.
I assume between the broker and the bettors they would have access to a pretty extensive list of fixed matches if this wasn't a first time thing for them, and if the bettors turned on the broker, one side or the other should talk sooner or later. Hopefully the Korean police can cut someone on one side or the other a deal in exchange for evidence of which matches if any were fixed so that they can investigate properly and find both any players involved as well as the key figures in the match fixing side of things.
The quotes are saying that SK never agreed to throw this game. Is that possible? Would the "broker" have taken anyones money if he hadn't already gotten SK's agreement?
Maybe he did agree and decided to screw over the broker? Why not? What is the worse scenario that can happen if this were to ever go to to trial? Everyone laughs at the broker as he goes to prison with Soulkey waving bye to him?
I don't see why people would assume MK was match fixing. Unless he's been doing it in every single pro match he's played over the last 3 years. He's made super chobo mistakes to lose matches since HotS was released...
On May 08 2015 10:09 ClaudeSc2 wrote: I don't see why people would assume MK was match fixing. Unless he's been doing it in every single pro match he's played over the last 3 years. He's made super chobo mistakes to lose matches since HotS was released...
On May 08 2015 10:09 ClaudeSc2 wrote: I don't see why people would assume MK was match fixing. Unless he's been doing it in every single pro match he's played over the last 3 years. He's made super chobo mistakes to lose matches since HotS was released...
You're saying that like we don't have any base for the argument.
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Why would Kespa throw an investigation and release a statement about a player like Soulkey? He's neither on a Kespa team nor did the allegations concern S2SL or SPL
On May 08 2015 02:31 ThePacifist wrote: You guys need to know why KeSPA released such statement. It's not about MKP. There was an incident about Soulkey today.
So this is the article from Sports Donga claims that Soulkey is suspected of involving into match fixing which made the KeSPA to release their statement and also made me(perhaps all sc2 fans) shock.
And after more articles released with KeSPA's statement which say the article from Sports Donga has wrong information. They say 'Soulkey didn't accept the offer. It's a confinement case between a broker and investors.'.
A Korean betting broker offered to Soulkey for a match fixing. -> Soulkey refused to the offer. -> Investors detained the broker after lost their investment(I'm not sure how they lost their money.) -> The broker felt threatened and asked the police for help -> The police launched an investigation and questioned Soulkey as a witness.(Maybe this is the part where the reporter from Sports Donga wrote the article.) -> After the article, KeSPA released the statement to argue with it.
So the statement is not about MKP's case. I don't know MKP did such that horrible thing but i just want to say that why KeSPA released the statement today is not to cover what MKP did. It's about Soulkey.
If there's grammatical error, I apologise for that. My English isn't good enough.
Is this about Soulkey vs Creator game 1 or another Soulkey game? Thanks for the clarification.
I'm not sure which match was offered but according to a rumour between korean communities, it's a match of the KeSPA Cup.
It's a rumour
OK, I posted it was a rumour because i couldn't find where it came out from. But i found the source, It seems is the truth.
On May 08 2015 08:50 Swoopae wrote: Fascinating situation. Sounds like a situation where Soulkey had agreed to throw a game and reneged (whether it was his first time agreeing to throw a game or not is another matter, and seems unlikely given the void he was involved in fairly recently)
If he reneged on an agreement to throw a match (without such an agreement how would this situation arise) then it seems likely that's because of the microscope that match fixing is under, especially given Soulkey was involved in one of the suspicious matches recently. If the reneged upon agreement was at the Kespa cup as rumoured (source, anyone?), the match in question should either be the series against Parting or more likely Map 1 against Parting.
I assume between the broker and the bettors they would have access to a pretty extensive list of fixed matches if this wasn't a first time thing for them, and if the bettors turned on the broker, one side or the other should talk sooner or later. Hopefully the Korean police can cut someone on one side or the other a deal in exchange for evidence of which matches if any were fixed so that they can investigate properly and find both any players involved as well as the key figures in the match fixing side of things.
The quotes are saying that SK never agreed to throw this game. Is that possible? Would the "broker" have taken anyones money if he hadn't already gotten SK's agreement?
Maybe he did agree and decided to screw over the broker? Why not? What is the worse scenario that can happen if this were to ever go to to trial? Everyone laughs at the broker as he goes to prison with Soulkey waving bye to him?
The worst scenario? Soulkey dead in an ally for screwing with a betting syndicate.
On May 08 2015 10:09 ClaudeSc2 wrote: I don't see why people would assume MK was match fixing. Unless he's been doing it in every single pro match he's played over the last 3 years. He's made super chobo mistakes to lose matches since HotS was released...
We've discussed this so much. He didn't make a "chobo mistake", he deliberately choose not to react what he was scouting (no hatch, late gas+pool). I've watched thousands of games of pro Starcraft and I've NEVER seen a pro do something like that. It just doesn't happen. This is way way worse than just missing something on the minimap or leaving depots down etc.
Combine this with the betting patterns and the chances of Marineking not matchfixing are minimal. MVP said that they have proof of his innocence, but I say they are heavily biased. If they could release that info or let someone non-biased take a look at it then that would clear him imo.
Good to see things coming out in the light, and great to hear that the police is involved! Still a long way to go ofc, and kespa seems to be vary careful, but that is no doubt the right choice for them at this point. Kespa can't really go out and say "Listen, we don't have any proof, but we are really convinced that these guys are match fixing, and we are doing what we can to track them down!". Probably it'd be illegal actually. So without solid proof, kespa (and MVP I guess) can't or at least shouldn't start accusing players.
I hope that the investigations continue and that they track down the brokers and players involved.
On May 08 2015 18:12 Cascade wrote: Good to see things coming out in the light, and great to hear that the police is involved! Still a long way to go ofc, and kespa seems to be vary careful, but that is no doubt the right choice for them at this point. Kespa can't really go out and say "Listen, we don't have any proof, but we are really convinced that these guys are match fixing, and we are doing what we can to track them down!". Probably it'd be illegal actually. So without solid proof, kespa (and MVP I guess) can't or at least shouldn't start accusing players.
I hope that the investigations continue and that they track down the brokers and players involved.
It's certainly possible KeSPA is conducting an investigation but this isn't really proof of that. If you read the information ThePacifist provided it seems that the police involvement isn't for match fixing but for people holding someone against his will (the broker) which is a more serious crime of course. It just happens that SK has been questioned as a witness. The statement that KeSPA gave seems just the usual fluff to me (if it was properly translated).
- None of the players were involved in match fixing
Sure
- There has been attempts to fix matches, but the players who were approached by brokers rejected the offer, causing loss to the investors (in match fixing). (Investors referring to people who pay the brokers and provide the money to pay the players for match fixing)
This isn't properly translated/ presented I think, it seems to adress just the aforementioned case.
- Incident has been reported to the police and some brokers/investors involved were jailed
Same as above
- KeSPA is stepping up their effort in taking down illegal betting websites to prevent further incidents, and also in protecting the players from these brokers
Hopefully but how exactly?
- Until the case has been fully resolved please do not make inappropriate accusations to players and cause harm to them
Which case?
- We will continue to communicate with the fans until the final decision is out and to prevent any future illegal acts.
Continue? :/
On May 07 2015 20:24 lichter wrote: They've been taking the subject very seriously but they've been hesitant to make a statement. As you can imagine, ongoing investigations usually don't receive announcements because it can have an effect on the investigation.
However, KeSPA have been doing something, and they aren't keeping silent because they are just wishing it away. They are waiting for the right time to make an announcement.
I suppose this is as good a time as any to say that KeSPA have been very cooperative with me about answering questions about the situation. However, this new development means that they'd like to wait until they get more info on this new matter so that any such announcement can be up to date. You will all hear from KeSPA soon.
Broker - "Will you throw a game?" SK - "Sure, 50 Million" Broker - "There you go." SK - "There you go, what?" Broker - "I gave you the money, throw the game." SK - "What money? Kappa"
Glad this is with the authorities and it's being treated as seriously. These guys are toxic and a cancer to professional gaming.
On May 08 2015 08:50 Swoopae wrote: Fascinating situation. Sounds like a situation where Soulkey had agreed to throw a game and reneged (whether it was his first time agreeing to throw a game or not is another matter, and seems unlikely given the void he was involved in fairly recently)
If he reneged on an agreement to throw a match (without such an agreement how would this situation arise) then it seems likely that's because of the microscope that match fixing is under, especially given Soulkey was involved in one of the suspicious matches recently. If the reneged upon agreement was at the Kespa cup as rumoured (source, anyone?), the match in question should either be the series against Parting or more likely Map 1 against Parting.
I assume between the broker and the bettors they would have access to a pretty extensive list of fixed matches if this wasn't a first time thing for them, and if the bettors turned on the broker, one side or the other should talk sooner or later. Hopefully the Korean police can cut someone on one side or the other a deal in exchange for evidence of which matches if any were fixed so that they can investigate properly and find both any players involved as well as the key figures in the match fixing side of things.
The quotes are saying that SK never agreed to throw this game. Is that possible? Would the "broker" have taken anyones money if he hadn't already gotten SK's agreement?
Maybe he did agree and decided to screw over the broker? Why not? What is the worse scenario that can happen if this were to ever go to to trial? Everyone laughs at the broker as he goes to prison with Soulkey waving bye to him?
This isn't really "Kespa's official statement on matchfixing", it's "Kespa's official statement on a bizarre situation involving investors falsely imprisoning a broker over a Soulkey match". The REAL issue is the pattern of recent voided bets and suspicious matches, especially the MKP match. Kespa has still not addressed the real issue. And until Kespa has examined MKP's bank accounts and communications, Kespa has not investigated the issue.
I also find it hard to believe Soulkey is completely innocent, especially considering he was involved in a previous voided bet. Would these investors really just pay this broker without knowing if Soulkey had agreed? Where did the money go?
The investors paid the broker in advance for multiple matchfixes in specific matches. This is in line with other mentions of Swoopae being offered by online betters X amount of fixed matches per year for a lump sum of money. Following intense attention being paid to potential matchfixing due to voided online bets, Soulkey reneged, even though he had fixed at least one match earlier in the year. Since they couldn't get their money, the investors confined the broker, demanding money. The broker then called the police and spilled the beans.
Essentially, the issue spilled over to the police due to underground illegal behavior. Someone got caught, forcing the issue out into the open. A fairly predictable turn of events.
Worth noting I can't confirm the legitimacy of the offer I received and it could have been a scam; but the offer I received via PM on another forum was 4 matches in a one year period for 2k. I wasn't able to get any further details from the guy who PM'd me.
It would be good if we could get a real statement from Kespa addressing the concerns about this statement I posted on page 3 of this thread. The odds that we see both this weird situation and a pile of voided matches due to suspected matchfixing in a short period of time and they both involve the same player and it's all a big coincidence and no match fixing is or has been taking place seems incredibly unlikely.
On May 09 2015 08:18 Doodsmack wrote: This isn't really "Kespa's official statement on matchfixing", it's "Kespa's official statement on a bizarre situation involving investors falsely imprisoning a broker over a Soulkey match". The REAL issue is the pattern of recent voided bets and suspicious matches, especially the MKP match. Kespa has still not addressed the real issue. And until Kespa has examined MKP's bank accounts and communications, Kespa has not investigated the issue.
I also find it hard to believe Soulkey is completely innocent, especially considering he was involved in a previous voided bet. Would these investors really just pay this broker without knowing if Soulkey had agreed? Where did the money go?
What do you think kespa is actually? they have no right to investigate like this, they are not the police.
On May 10 2015 00:49 ssg wrote: Bovada just voided some bets on Gumiho vs Marineking. Gumiho won 3-0. Don't think it was match fixing.
Edit: apparently not voided. But they did close the lines early on this match and all sc2 lines for the rest of the weekend. Lame.
Line movement was totally normal; I know because I bet on Gumiho at the -163 opener and mentioned to a friend he was closer to a -200 to -250 favourite in a bo5. The line closed at -215. Gumiho won 3-0 which isn't too shocking, two games were closeish and the line move wasn't unreasonable. Match was not voided on Pinnacle. If the line had moved to -800 or more it could have been something, but there is no reason to believe anything was out of the ordinary with this match.
I guess pinnacle were refusing to offer Prime lines for past months for a reason. The one time they put the lines, Prime instantly fixing the match, lol.
Not making assumptions or anything, but I stepped away from the PC for a while only to come back and see 12:45 in game time and BoooongBooong didn't even have baneling speed.
On May 11 2015 22:03 Penev wrote: Any new info on this last void?
Swoopea pls
I only know that Bomber-Bboong opened at approximately 1.5 v 2.7 odds (Bomber favorite) and apparently a lot of money came on Bomber just before the void.
On May 11 2015 22:07 Grizvok wrote: Not making assumptions or anything, but I stepped away from the PC for a while only to come back and see 12:45 in game time and BoooongBooong didn't even have baneling speed.
Good to see they've worked out less suspicious ways of 100% losing. Doubt we'll ever see another as blatant as MKP's
On May 11 2015 22:07 Grizvok wrote: Not making assumptions or anything, but I stepped away from the PC for a while only to come back and see 12:45 in game time and BoooongBooong didn't even have baneling speed.
Good to see they've worked out less suspicious ways of 100% losing. Doubt we'll ever see another as blatant as MKP's
MKP's game wouldnt be so blatant if Byul would not proxy hatch though.
On May 11 2015 22:03 Penev wrote: Any new info on this last void?
Swoopea pls
I only know that Bomber-Bboong opened at approximately 1.5 v 2.7 odds (Bomber favorite) and apparently a lot of money came on Bomber just before the void.
Now I have not weighed in on any of the previous incidents so please do not try to assume that I am necessarily on either side of this argument, insofar as either accusing anyone of match fixing or defending any allegations; take this post for what it is and don't view it in the context of possible match-fixing.
With that disclaimer in mind: is there anyone here except for delusional Prime fans (all 3 of them that are left at this point) who would have bet on BboongBboong? I have followed competitive SC2 quite closely since WoL Beta and I can say, from my perspective at least, with the exception of a few brief periods here and there, this match is always a safe victory for Bomber, in an offline setting (which Proleague is) and with sufficient preparation (which is safe to assume considering he hasn't been flying around recently).
Now granted I couldn't catch the game live, and from what the posts above suggest, forgetting centrifugal hooks in a ZvT is quite poor and obviously a crippling mistake.
Nevertheless, is it surprising that the odds were in such favour of Bomber, regardless of how the game turned out? Because to me it feels like pretty much no-one who follows the Korean SC2 scene would unironically bet on BboongBboong for this match. Genuinely curious how you and other posters feel about this.
On May 11 2015 22:03 Penev wrote: Any new info on this last void?
Swoopea pls
I only know that Bomber-Bboong opened at approximately 1.5 v 2.7 odds (Bomber favorite) and apparently a lot of money came on Bomber just before the void.
Now I have not weighed in on any of the previous incidents so please do not try to assume that I am necessarily on either side of this argument, insofar as either accusing anyone of match fixing or defending any allegations; take this post for what it is and don't view it in the context of possible match-fixing.
With that disclaimer in mind: is there anyone here except for delusional Prime fans (all 3 of them that are left at this point) who would have bet on BboongBboong? I have followed competitive SC2 quite closely since WoL Beta and I can say, from my perspective at least, with the exception of a few brief periods here and there, this match is always a safe victory for Bomber, in an offline setting (which Proleague is) and with sufficient preparation (which is safe to assume considering he hasn't been flying around recently).
Now granted I couldn't catch the game live, and from what the posts above suggest, forgetting centrifugal hooks in a ZvT is quite poor and obviously a crippling mistake.
Nevertheless, is it surprising that the odds were in such favour of Bomber, regardless of how the game turned out? Because to me it feels like pretty much no-one who follows the Korean SC2 scene would unironically bet on BboongBboong for this match. Genuinely curious how you and other posters feel about this.
Problem is that your opinion is biased toward Bomber. I am not sure what do you mean by "safe" victory for Bomber - but this matchup is far from 100% Bomber victory.
Let me remind you that Bomber recently :
Nearly lost bo5 to Shine, who is not that much better than Bboong Lost 0-2 to Zoun Got all-ined by Panic Lost 1-2 to penguiN who is objectively even worse than Bboong
Additionally, Bomber nearly always goes for the same greedy build. If Bboong would really aim to win here, he could've easily chosen some variancions of the zerg all-ins that would at least give him 20% chance to win.
Afterall, Bboong did 2-0 Reality less than 2 weeks ago. Saying that this was a clear secure win for Bomber means absolutely nothing. You have no stats to back it up.
On May 11 2015 22:03 Penev wrote: Any new info on this last void?
Swoopea pls
I only know that Bomber-Bboong opened at approximately 1.5 v 2.7 odds (Bomber favorite) and apparently a lot of money came on Bomber just before the void.
Now I have not weighed in on any of the previous incidents so please do not try to assume that I am necessarily on either side of this argument, insofar as either accusing anyone of match fixing or defending any allegations; take this post for what it is and don't view it in the context of possible match-fixing.
With that disclaimer in mind: is there anyone here except for delusional Prime fans (all 3 of them that are left at this point) who would have bet on BboongBboong? I have followed competitive SC2 quite closely since WoL Beta and I can say, from my perspective at least, with the exception of a few brief periods here and there, this match is always a safe victory for Bomber, in an offline setting (which Proleague is) and with sufficient preparation (which is safe to assume considering he hasn't been flying around recently).
Now granted I couldn't catch the game live, and from what the posts above suggest, forgetting centrifugal hooks in a ZvT is quite poor and obviously a crippling mistake.
Nevertheless, is it surprising that the odds were in such favour of Bomber, regardless of how the game turned out? Because to me it feels like pretty much no-one who follows the Korean SC2 scene would unironically bet on BboongBboong for this match. Genuinely curious how you and other posters feel about this.
Would it surprise you that much if B4 took a game off Bomber in a bo3? Like it's not THAT strange.
I think favourites win way less than we think. Hell, even Morrow won a match vs Hydra!
Would it surprise you that much if B4 took a game off Bomber in a bo3? Like it's not THAT strange.
I think favourites win way less than we think. Hell, even Morrow won a match vs Hydra!
This happens all the time in sc2 (and real sports as well), its a very common fallacy to overstimate the edge the players have against each other.
If edges were that big, upsets would never happen. We would never see Uthermal taking map of Parting, TangTang 2-0'ing Zest, MMA losing to Scarlett and Revolver, etc.
Hell, even arguably the best player in the world (or top 3 in the world) - Life, recently BARELY won a bo5 against Terminator.
Its a competition between players who train a lot and aim to win. Anything can happen.
On May 11 2015 22:03 Penev wrote: Any new info on this last void?
Swoopea pls
I only know that Bomber-Bboong opened at approximately 1.5 v 2.7 odds (Bomber favorite) and apparently a lot of money came on Bomber just before the void.
Now I have not weighed in on any of the previous incidents so please do not try to assume that I am necessarily on either side of this argument, insofar as either accusing anyone of match fixing or defending any allegations; take this post for what it is and don't view it in the context of possible match-fixing.
With that disclaimer in mind: is there anyone here except for delusional Prime fans (all 3 of them that are left at this point) who would have bet on BboongBboong? I have followed competitive SC2 quite closely since WoL Beta and I can say, from my perspective at least, with the exception of a few brief periods here and there, this match is always a safe victory for Bomber, in an offline setting (which Proleague is) and with sufficient preparation (which is safe to assume considering he hasn't been flying around recently).
Now granted I couldn't catch the game live, and from what the posts above suggest, forgetting centrifugal hooks in a ZvT is quite poor and obviously a crippling mistake.
Nevertheless, is it surprising that the odds were in such favour of Bomber, regardless of how the game turned out? Because to me it feels like pretty much no-one who follows the Korean SC2 scene would unironically bet on BboongBboong for this match. Genuinely curious how you and other posters feel about this.
The fact that Bomber was favourite has nothing to do with it. The problem with these bets are (why Pinnacle voids them) the relatively large amounts of money that are betted against increasingly unfavourable odds. The only reason why people would do that is that they're 100% certain of the outcome and not a % less.
If B4 would use a snipy 2 base roach stuff, he might win against ultimate greed named Bomber. And a roach-all-in in SPL against a strong terrain... very common.
I am a really really big Bomber Fanboy, but everything over 3:1 for Bomber in the odds in a Bo1 becomes strange. We all know Bomberthings, we know his greed and how hard a strong 2 Base Roach can hit the terran.
With SBENU my SPL Hype is back, but I just got reminded why my hype died during season 1... we will never know and the doubt (lose or throw) will become bigger and bigger eating up all hype and fun watching again.
It is not about Banespeed I think: First the Betting: It is again at lines which are waaay out of serious normal possibility. Bo1 dont have 4:1s just because it is so easy to take a BO-loss. The Game: This game has some evidence, but way less then MK(notsoP) Game: Missing B-ling-Speed, happens. Having 1-1 not finished when enemy has 3-3 started while playing 3 base super safe and not got touched by Bombermacro in the first 7-8 mins? Not so likely.
There is no hard evidence, there wount be and there will never be in the game. But there is evidence that fixing is still going on and the possibility we just saw it once again today. Not good, not good at all.
I don't think B4 could even ever win against Bomber even if he wasn't "throwing".
Watch the vod, the dude looked nervous as hell, shaking, before his game against Bomber. He knew he was outclassed and it just showed in the game when he went on tilt. He's like 0-6 in Proleague and literally never stood a chance. If I had the capital I too would've dropped a max limit bet on Bomber b/c I knew it was a 95% win when opening odds were at at like 82% .
Its actually much more logical to assume that he was "nervous as hell" as a result of him throwing the match in public, not because he is afraid of playing Bomber.
I am puzzled why people use this fallacy in attempt to proove the player's innocence. I saw it in MKP's threads a couple of times too (Hey, MKP looked weird/nervous, thats why he played bad!), when in reality it only should condemn them more and rise the probability of the matchfixing.
On May 12 2015 00:18 spoonmaster wrote: I don't think B4 could even ever win against Bomber even if he wasn't "throwing".
Watch the vod, the dude looked nervous as hell, shaking, before his game against Bomber. He knew he was outclassed and it just showed in the game when he went on tilt. He's like 0-6 in Proleague and literally never stood a chance. If I had the capital I too would've dropped a max limit bet on Bomber b/c I knew it was a 95% win when opening odds were at at like 82% .
Maybe those are reasons why it was matchfixing! He should be comfortable with losing now, and something like throwing a televised game was a lot of pressure. It's like when MK was playing against Byul. But who knows! These betting lines are getting to be so common with Prime.
Also, it's sorta funny how this thread was turned into the new "Betting lines were strange and bets were voided for So&So" thread. Someday, someone less lazy than me will make a super thread for all of our potential matchfixing discussions.
On May 12 2015 00:18 spoonmaster wrote: I don't think B4 could even ever win against Bomber even if he wasn't "throwing".
Watch the vod, the dude looked nervous as hell, shaking, before his game against Bomber. He knew he was outclassed and it just showed in the game when he went on tilt. He's like 0-6 in Proleague and literally never stood a chance. If I had the capital I too would've dropped a max limit bet on Bomber b/c I knew it was a 95% win when opening odds were at at like 82% .
Maybe those are reasons why it was matchfixing! He should be comfortable with losing now, and something like throwing a televised game was a lot of pressure. It's like when MK was playing against Byul. But who knows! These betting lines are getting to be so common with Prime.
Under that same logic, Liquid'HerO should stop having huge emotional cave-ins when he drops a map because he's been losing for years now. I'm not denying anything happening, but I'm just saying that Bomber was the better player and the better player won. As a better in my mind, B4 never really stood a chance even.
On May 12 2015 00:18 spoonmaster wrote: I don't think B4 could even ever win against Bomber even if he wasn't "throwing".
Watch the vod, the dude looked nervous as hell, shaking, before his game against Bomber. He knew he was outclassed and it just showed in the game when he went on tilt. He's like 0-6 in Proleague and literally never stood a chance. If I had the capital I too would've dropped a max limit bet on Bomber b/c I knew it was a 95% win when opening odds were at at like 82% .
Maybe those are reasons why it was matchfixing! He should be comfortable with losing now, and something like throwing a televised game was a lot of pressure. It's like when MK was playing against Byul. But who knows! These betting lines are getting to be so common with Prime.
Under that same logic, Liquid'HerO should stop having huge emotional cave-ins when he drops a map because he's been losing for years now. I'm not denying anything happening, but I'm just saying that Bomber was the better player and the better player won. As a better in my mind, B4 never really stood a chance even.
Would you say the same about Zoun, PenguiN, Neige and/or Dynamite? All players Bomber have lost to past 6 months. Would you say the same of Hydra vs Morrow? Tangtang vs Zest?
Upsets do happen, that's why it's not profitable to always bet on the favorite.
Even if they did get the betting lines wrong, shutting down the bet like this probably (has done so in the other cases of match fixing) means that someone bet A LOT of money moments before betting closes. Unless you are CERTAIN that Bomber will win, it's a sure way to lose money.
In pro league, I don't think any player is over a 4-1 favourite.
Well if someone clearly states that Bomber is 95-100% in a bo1 against Bboong i am not even sure he is worth arguing with. He is obviosly does not care about the objective reality and statistics.
Just watched the series. I mentioned in the 2p2 thread that the Bomber steam was big early on Bomber over B4, but that in itself isn't much as it had only moved to -340 or something, I did say that if it headed towards -750 or higher then i'd be very suspicious
Does anyone know where the line closed when it was voided? Anything higher than -700 is really bad/suspicious in a bo1; objectively Bomber is something like a -280 to -350 favourite in a bo1 vs B4; anything higher than -500 is very suspicious and anything higher than -800 is pretty conclusive
On May 12 2015 00:00 Doodsmack wrote: I haven't watched the games in question but forgetting baneling speed is not evidence by itself of a thrown match.
It's not at all; but he also didn't get any ground upgrades.
Match looked plausible (I watched it without knowing it was voided as I didn't want to spoil myself since I had a bet on Sbenu) but B4 made some really questionable decisions that made it unwinnable for him
Apparently a lot of steam came in on Myungsik as well against Yoda; Yoda was something like +130 originally and was at +254 before the match and we had the Yoda vs Bunny incident a while ago. Not conclusive, but suspicious.
They voided the Sbenu vs Prime line as well which may be a first; I remember that when the San vs Dark void happened I had a bet on Startale +1.5 games which wasn't voided. If they suspect more than one match was thrown by Prime though I can't really complain even though I actually had a pretty big bet on this one.
Kespa need to address this properly at this point; this is an absolute joke that voids are happening nearly every week.
On May 12 2015 01:30 maGicc wrote: Nitrogensports canceled the Yoda-Myungsik and Drg-Creator matches as well.
I assume Pinnacle did too; will tweet at them for clarification, they cancelled my Sbenu vs Prime bet and I think that may be the first time the actual team vs team bet has ever been cancelled. I tweeted at them asking some questions; hopefully we get some responses soon.
Lost all the remaining respect. I guess he is really worrying about what matchfixing scandal can do to his job in Korea.
Or he is just very naive. Combined with some ostrichism.
I dont think so, i cant imagine he would try to deny that matchfixing is happening in a private convertation. He is not that naive or foolish. This post just reeks of public damage control bullshit that he himself does not believe in.
Pretty sad how he threats community as a bunch of mindless sheeps. First saying "we should all forget about it" on Proleague stream (regarding MKP's throw) and now this.
Lost all the remaining respect. I guess he is really worrying about what matchfixing scandal can do to his job in Korea.
Or he is just very naive. Combined with some ostrichism.
I dont think so, i cant imagine he would try to deny that matchfixing is happening in a private convertation. He is not that naive or foolish. This post just reeks of public damage control bullshit that he himself does not believe in.
Pretty sad how he threats community as a bunch of mindless sheeps. First saying "we should all forget about it" on Proleague stream (regarding MKP's throw) and now this.
That was really bad indeed, the worst thing you could possibly say in a situation like this even. Makes me think he is actually not the most "cunning" individual. Oh well, doesn't really matter I guess; We just need KeSPA finish their investigation. I'm a bit skeptic about said investigation though :/
Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote: in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?
Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?
As far as i know a lot of betting happening @korean sites that also offer lines for under/over 10 minutes or something like that (pinnacle/western sites doesnt offer these spreads)
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote: in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?
Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?
As far as i know a lot of betting happening @korean sites that also offer lines for under/over 10 minutes or something like that (pinnacle/western sites doesnt offer these spreads)
That's what I partly don't understand. According to various sources in the other threads here on TL, the matchfixers would bet in Korea and what we see on Pinnacle would be non-Koreans who would know of the matchfix. But if we assume that Koreans bet on the games' duration, then corrupt progamers use all-in builds, as pointed out by rekrul iirc, to make sure that they either win or lose under X minutes. And when looking at the games voided by Pinnacle, not only do all but one iirc feature the overly favored player winning, but more importantly none of them feature all-ins?
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote: in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?
Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?
As far as i know a lot of betting happening @korean sites that also offer lines for under/over 10 minutes or something like that (pinnacle/western sites doesnt offer these spreads)
That's what I partly don't understand. According to various sources in the other threads here on TL, the matchfixers would bet in Korea and what we see on Pinnacle would be non-Koreans who would know of the matchfix. But if we assume that Koreans bet on the games' duration, then corrupt progamers use all-in builds, as pointed out by rekrul iirc, to make sure that they either win or lose under X minutes. And when looking at the games voided by Pinnacle, not only do all but one iirc feature the overly favored player winning, but more importantly none of them feature all-ins?
Seperate issue imo, you can either fix the length or result of the match, it doesn't matter what you're fixing as long as you can bet on it somewhere if the goal is to make money betting on it (which I assume is the goal of the match fixers)
Well first of all, betting on multiple books increases your chance to cashout from a fixed match - i got my bet on Drg-Creator graded on one book today, and canceled on the other.
Nitrogen also does not follow pinnacle 100% and graded some voided matches in the past.
Betting on game's duration is more risky to fix, because it will mean that losing player will either have to survive (risky), or go all-in and lose quickly (risky too - a) can look too much like a throw b) can actually win the game )
Someone mentioned that bets on duration is actually what players themselfs bet on, being favorites in the match.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Oh really, so how much money did you put on Bomber today given that he played with both hands?
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite; not a 12-1 favourite in a bo1 against B4.
It's not about who you think is going to win, it's about what percentage of the time they're going to win. 99% of people think that Bomber is a favourite in the match, no one disputes that, and at even money everyone would bet on Bomber. The problem is people continued to bet on Bomber at 1.08 odds meaning risking a thousand dollars wouldn't even net you a hundred dollars
Yes, Bomber was the favourite and deservedly so, but he lost a bo3 to Penguin and B4 beat Reality in a bo3 quite recently. Upsets are possible, and that's why you can't automatically bet on all favourites no matter how bad the odds are and print money; because the odds are based on probability
In this case, if you bet on Bomber at 1.08 ten times, and he wins 9 of them, you still LOSE money overall because of the odds. Does anything think Bomber is a favourite to go 10-0 against b4 in a bo19? Of course not. A 9-1 win for him would be a LOSS here.
It's about understanding odds and probability. Do I need to post my explanation of dynamic betting lines again?
I am just annoyed when people say stuff like "well i would've bet it on Bomber/Innovation/Dark anyway" - well, why did not you? Saying that "you just dont gamble" will be a cop out, because if you are so 100% sure of the outcome its not really a gambling - since there is no risk of losing (according to some people).
Everyone is a hindsight genius when it comes to betting.
On May 12 2015 05:07 spoonmaster wrote: I personally dropped a hefty amount on Bomber when the lines opened. Odds weren't nearly close to the 4-1 it ended at though when it closed.
Actually it ended at more like 12-1 favourite according to Pinnacle; see the screenshot I posted earlier in the thread. Personally I agree that the opening price was good on Bomber and may have bet it myself if I hadn't already made a large bet on Sbenu to win (which I thought was even more likely given it's effectively a best of 5, not 1 and the odds were similar)
4-1 wouldn't be totally unreasonable given Bomber is probably about a 75% favourite in a bo1. 12-1 is absurd, obviously, and points towards fixing. It is worth emphasising that most foreigners are not even this big of an underdog to Proleague players in bo5 matches let alone bo1s. A match like Parting vs some WCS Challenger league player would still only probably be about an 8-1 favourite for Parting in a bo1 (it might get higher if it was a bo3 or 5, where the favourite is less likely to lose multiple maps)
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite; not a 12-1 favourite in a bo1 against B4.
It's not about who you think is going to win, it's about what percentage of the time they're going to win. 99% of people think that Bomber is a favourite in the match, no one disputes that, and at even money everyone would bet on Bomber. The problem is people continued to bet on Bomber at 1.08 odds meaning risking a thousand dollars wouldn't even net you a hundred dollars
Yes, Bomber was the favourite and deservedly so, but he lost a bo3 to Penguin and B4 beat Reality in a bo3 quite recently. Upsets are possible, and that's why you can't automatically bet on all favourites no matter how bad the odds are and print money; because the odds are based on probability
In this case, if you bet on Bomber at 1.08 ten times, and he wins 9 of them, you still LOSE money overall because of the odds. Does anything think Bomber is a favourite to go 10-0 against b4 in a bo19? Of course not. A 9-1 win for him would be a LOSS here.
It's about understanding odds and probability. Do I need to post my explanation of dynamic betting lines again?
I wonder if there are people who bet on sc2 who don't understand this like the majority here on TL.
On May 12 2015 05:07 spoonmaster wrote: I personally dropped a hefty amount on Bomber when the lines opened. Odds weren't nearly close to the 4-1 it ended at though when it closed.
Actually it ended at more like 12-1 favourite according to Pinnacle; see the screenshot I posted earlier in the thread. Personally I agree that the opening price was good on Bomber and may have bet it myself if I hadn't already made a large bet on Sbenu to win (which I thought was even more likely given it's effectively a best of 5, not 1 and the odds were similar)
4-1 wouldn't be totally unreasonable given Bomber is probably about a 75% favourite in a bo1. 12-1 is absurd, obviously, and points towards fixing. It is worth emphasising that most foreigners are not even this big of an underdog to Proleague players in bo5 matches let alone bo1s. A match like Parting vs some WCS Challenger league player would still only probably be about an 8-1 favourite for Parting in a bo1 (it might get higher if it was a bo3 or 5, where the favourite is less likely to lose multiple maps)
Yeah last time I saw 12-1 odds I think it was ForGG vs SouL TvT in WCS EU Challenger.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite
This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite
This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.
Thats a blank statement backed by absolutely nothing.
If you think that putting Bomber as 3-1 fav in a bo1 over B4 is "massively underrestimating" Bomber - i assume that means that you put Bomber at least 90% fav over B4 in a bo1? Based on what, exactly?
This was the damage to the sport that I was fearing after Kespa/blizzard/MVP did nothing to mkp after the match. It sends out a clear message to the rest of the players. Go forth n fix. See mkp? Blatant as hell, what do we do? Pretend that nothing is happening. Release statements saying all is fine This would kill the sc2 scene. More and more fans will become deluded and not watch/support the scene anymore.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite
This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.
In a best of 7, then Bomber is absolutely a 6-1 favourite or something. In a best of 3, he might be a 4-1 favourite. There is no way he is a 12-1 favourite in a best of 1 here ever.
This was a best of 1, and on a Zerg favoured map as well.
I checked his record on aligulac and the last time Bomber won 10 maps in a row (necessary at these odds) in tracked games was in November 2012. That includes matches against foreigners.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite
This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.
Thats a blank statement backed by absolutely nothing.
If you think that putting Bomber as 3-1 fav in a bo1 over B4 is "massively underrestimating" Bomber - i assume that means that you put Bomber at least 90% fav over B4 in a bo1? Based on what, exactly?
Bomber is near the top of his game right now, TvZ is his jam, B4 hasn't seen anything noteworthy for 2 years, wasn't on a pro Korean team before rejoining prime, and has the worst proleague record and his games were awful to boot.
In 100 BO1s, there's no way he's taking 25 games off of Bomber.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite
This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.
Thats a blank statement backed by absolutely nothing.
If you think that putting Bomber as 3-1 fav in a bo1 over B4 is "massively underrestimating" Bomber - i assume that means that you put Bomber at least 90% fav over B4 in a bo1? Based on what, exactly?
Bomber is near the top of his game right now, TvZ is his jam, B4 hasn't seen anything noteworthy for 2 years, wasn't on a pro Korean team before rejoining prime, and has the worst proleague record and his games were awful to boot.
In 100 BO1s, there's no way he's taking 25 games off of Bomber.
If they played 100 bo1 in a row, you might be right. However, the 100 bo1's should have to played on an alternative universes so they aren't connected to each other. To illustrate, let's say 2base baneling bust for example (or some other cheese) has 25% odds of winning the match in a single match, but if you try it 100 times in a row, it won't work 25 times since Bomber knows it's coming.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite
This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.
Thats a blank statement backed by absolutely nothing.
If you think that putting Bomber as 3-1 fav in a bo1 over B4 is "massively underrestimating" Bomber - i assume that means that you put Bomber at least 90% fav over B4 in a bo1? Based on what, exactly?
Bomber is near the top of his game right now, TvZ is his jam, B4 hasn't seen anything noteworthy for 2 years, wasn't on a pro Korean team before rejoining prime, and has the worst proleague record and his games were awful to boot.
In 100 BO1s, there's no way he's taking 25 games off of Bomber.
How much better do you rate PenguiN compared to B4?
On May 12 2015 06:05 Samx wrote: This was the damage to the sport that I was fearing after Kespa/blizzard/MVP did nothing to mkp after the match. It sends out a clear message to the rest of the players. Go forth n fix. See mkp? Blatant as hell, what do we do? Pretend that nothing is happening. Release statements saying all is fine This would kill the sc2 scene. More and more fans will become deluded and not watch/support the scene anymore.
Well what do you really expect would happen? Even at this point, even after like 8 voids or so, if you go outside of this thread, about 80% of the community still thinks that this is just a witchhunt with zero evidence and that we should "leave the players alone"
We have reddit's /starcraft/ downvoting anything related to matchfixing and upvoting any nonsense like "zero proof, innocent before guilty, player 'x' was going to win anyway"
We have people like Wolf, saying "Forget about it, move on" on the ProLeague stream and posting that "There is still literally no proof that match-fixing has occurred in Korean SC2"
A lot of community figures will just keep quite because the matchfixing scandal or any damage to the sc2 scene could potentially hurt them financially. Thats why you see clueless people like TotalBiscuit coming here and pretending they know what they are talking about and trying to convience everyone that we have no real evidence of anything.
When the majority of the community and Kespa shows zero interest in finding out the truth and would rather pretend that "nothing is going on" - we will have this charade going on for as long as possible.
We already had the most blatant matchfixing you can imagine (MKP's game) - no effect. People confirming that matchfixing is rampant in korea - no effect. Matches being voided almost every week - no effect.
If dota2/Csgo would have anything NEAR close to the pile of evidence we have - the shit would be blown out of proportion in a matter of hours/days. Here we have matchfixing going on for MONTHS - and still practically no one cares.
At this point you just have to ask the important question - how come the Sc2 community is that retarded?
On May 12 2015 06:05 Samx wrote: This was the damage to the sport that I was fearing after Kespa/blizzard/MVP did nothing to mkp after the match. It sends out a clear message to the rest of the players. Go forth n fix. See mkp? Blatant as hell, what do we do? Pretend that nothing is happening. Release statements saying all is fine This would kill the sc2 scene. More and more fans will become deluded and not watch/support the scene anymore.
Well what do you really expect would happen? Even at this point, even after like 8 voids or so, if you go outside of this thread, about 80% of the community still thinks that this is just a witchhunt with zero evidence and that we should "leave the players alone"
We have reddit's /starcraft/ downvoting anything related to matchfixing and upvoting any nonsense like "zero proof, innocent before guilty, player 'x' was going to win anyway"
We have people like Wolf, saying "Forget about it, move on" on the ProLeague stream and posting that "There is still literally no proof that match-fixing has occurred in Korean SC2"
A lot of community figures will just keep quite because the matchfixing scandal or any damage to the sc2 scene could potentially hurt them financially. Thats why you see clueless people like TotalBiscuit coming here and pretending they know what they are talking about and trying to convience everyone that we have no real evidence of anything.
When the majority of the community and Kespa shows zero interest in finding out the truth and would rather pretend that "nothing is going on" - we will have this charade going on for as long as possible.
We already had the most blatant matchfixing you can imagine (MKP's game) - no effect. People confirming that matchfixing is rampant in korea - no effect. Matches being voided almost every week - no effect.
If dota2/Csgo would have anything NEAR close to the pile of evidence we have - the shit would be blown out of proportion in a matter of hours/days. Here we have matchfixing going on for MONTHS - and still practically no one cares.
At this point you just have to ask the important question - how come the Sc2 community is that retarded?
Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it.
As for Blizzard, TOs, community figures, teams and players it's obvious - it hurts them if the scandal were to become public. I believe that not doing anything about it would hurt them more in the long run (just look at BW), but maybe I'm wrong.
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite
This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.
Thats a blank statement backed by absolutely nothing.
If you think that putting Bomber as 3-1 fav in a bo1 over B4 is "massively underrestimating" Bomber - i assume that means that you put Bomber at least 90% fav over B4 in a bo1? Based on what, exactly?
Bomber is near the top of his game right now, TvZ is his jam, B4 hasn't seen anything noteworthy for 2 years, wasn't on a pro Korean team before rejoining prime, and has the worst proleague record and his games were awful to boot.
In 100 BO1s, there's no way he's taking 25 games off of Bomber.
Unfortunately for you we have sites like aligulac where we can compare players and see their recent match history to draw a realistic objective opinion, instead of some delusional bias.
All your assumptions are either false (Bomber being on the top of his game and TvZ being his best matchup) or irrelevant (B4 not doing anything noteworthy and not being on a pro Korean team).
After all, not being on the korean team and not doing anything noteworthy for a long long time did not stop Morrow from winning bo3 against Hydra.
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote: in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?
Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?
They would be yes.
Nitrogensports voided todays too it seems like some other sportsbooks are taking the lead from Pinnacle on this
A lot of action would happen on illegal korean sportsbooks too
And on the sites where the bets are not voided... who are they winning the money from? Other bettors and the sportsbook itself? I'm assuming even an illegal site in Korea wouldn't want this happening?
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
Maybe they all play protoss?
Do you know of any examples like this in other esports?
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime?
Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go.
IbuyPower in CS:GO When the fixed match happend in August 2014, the community got split: Half said "they fixed obvious, dont say other shit" Half said "you fucking retards, they did not throw, they had just bad day, jetlag, stop saying such toxic stuff"
Februar 2015 RL made the article with hard evidence that the match 6 month earlier was fixed. 50% of the community did say nothing. Other 50% said "knew it, idiots". Valve reactet to the hard evidence, but did not care at all, did not do any own actions after the game in August. 10 days later and a little bit of investigation of CS:GO-Lounge and Valve, over 10 and more people got part time or life time bans.
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
Maybe they all play protoss?
Do you know of any examples like this in other esports?
Popkiller; yes the money is won from legitimate bettors who bet on the other side and in some cases the sportsbook if the action is entirely one sided and the bets dont get voided
Magicc; I agree and it's really unfortunate. We've had a lot of top foreign progamers speak up about matchfixing (Huk, Kane, Welmu off the top of my head) and yet nothing is being done. The overwhelming problem is that there isn't enough money in the scene and the non-elite players aren't being paid properly. When you're making 10k a year and hovering at the poverty line it's a lot easier for some players to be tempted to say 'f it i'll throw a couple unimportant map 1s and make some real money'
Until there are consequences for match fixing the number of matches that are being fixed will only grow. It's a cancer that will spread and while it's not terminal right now if action is taken and the 5-10 players in question are punished the scene can move on from this and players will see 'there are consequences for match fixing if i'm caught maybe i won't do this'. After all, if you stopped punishing people for stealing... what's the logical conclusion? More people will steal. The threat of punishment is a major part of the whole reason the criminal justice system works for the most part.
If it gets to the stage where literally every second match is voided due to fixing it's too late. It's not there yet, but it's headed in that direction if nothing is done and no real investigation is launched.
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
Maybe they all play protoss?
Do you know of any examples like this in other esports?
Didn't Arrow gaming get caught as well? (In DOTA 2)
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime?
Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go.
Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues.
MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal.
After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me.
The Yoda-Myungsik match being voided somewhere doesn't shock me just watching Pinnacle's line. That had a lot of action on it. Although not entirely suspicious action. But Yoda's odds were swinging violently in the half hour before that match started, like literally one minute he'd be 2.00, the next he'd be 6.00-7.00. Not suspicious, but there was money around that game
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime?
Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go.
Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues.
MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal.
After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me.
as long as there is room for doubt, and there will be until a player gets banned or kicked off a team or does jail time, people will keep watching and cheering if they think its fun
On May 12 2015 07:17 showstealer1829 wrote: The Yoda-Myungsik match being voided somewhere doesn't shock me just watching Pinnacle's line. That had a lot of action on it. Although not entirely suspicious action. But Yoda's odds were swinging violently in the half hour before that match started, like literally one minute he'd be 2.00, the next he'd be 6.00-7.00. Not suspicious, but there was money around that game
Did he really went to 6.00-7.00? Even 3.00 would be already very suspect, with 4.00 being near conclusive. 6.00-7.00 is nothing but 200% fixed.
On May 12 2015 06:05 Samx wrote: This was the damage to the sport that I was fearing after Kespa/blizzard/MVP did nothing to mkp after the match. It sends out a clear message to the rest of the players. Go forth n fix. See mkp? Blatant as hell, what do we do? Pretend that nothing is happening. Release statements saying all is fine This would kill the sc2 scene. More and more fans will become deluded and not watch/support the scene anymore.
Well what do you really expect would happen? Even at this point, even after like 8 voids or so, if you go outside of this thread, about 80% of the community still thinks that this is just a witchhunt with zero evidence and that we should "leave the players alone"
We have reddit's /starcraft/ downvoting anything related to matchfixing and upvoting any nonsense like "zero proof, innocent before guilty, player 'x' was going to win anyway"
We have people like Wolf, saying "Forget about it, move on" on the ProLeague stream and posting that "There is still literally no proof that match-fixing has occurred in Korean SC2"
A lot of community figures will just keep quite because the matchfixing scandal or any damage to the sc2 scene could potentially hurt them financially. Thats why you see clueless people like TotalBiscuit coming here and pretending they know what they are talking about and trying to convience everyone that we have no real evidence of anything.
When the majority of the community and Kespa shows zero interest in finding out the truth and would rather pretend that "nothing is going on" - we will have this charade going on for as long as possible.
We already had the most blatant matchfixing you can imagine (MKP's game) - no effect. People confirming that matchfixing is rampant in korea - no effect. Matches being voided almost every week - no effect.
If dota2/Csgo would have anything NEAR close to the pile of evidence we have - the shit would be blown out of proportion in a matter of hours/days. Here we have matchfixing going on for MONTHS - and still practically no one cares.
At this point you just have to ask the important question - how come the Sc2 community is that retarded?
Great Post, even Mods here pretend that nothing is happening, poor MKP, He just played like mentally retarded but He shocks sometimes, 3 times in less than in a minute in a TV match, everything is just fine, but people are aware of this, look at DH Finals with the outstanding viewers number of 35k, that was really bad.
On May 12 2015 07:17 showstealer1829 wrote: The Yoda-Myungsik match being voided somewhere doesn't shock me just watching Pinnacle's line. That had a lot of action on it. Although not entirely suspicious action. But Yoda's odds were swinging violently in the half hour before that match started, like literally one minute he'd be 2.00, the next he'd be 6.00-7.00. Not suspicious, but there was money around that game
Did he really went to 6.00-7.00? Even 3.00 would be already very suspect, with 4.00 being near conclusive. 6.00-7.00 is nothing but 200% fixed.
As I said it swung minute to minute. The highest I saw Yoda go was about 6.80...that was just before the start of the DRG match, the DRG-Creator match by comparison barely moved at all. Creator stayed pretty much between 2.00-2.30 the entire time I watched the lines.
Well i've already heard some opinions that Yoda threw that game from people who did not see the line movements at all.
Given that Yoda was already under suspicion from his recent match vs Bunny and this line move to 6.8 is makes it pretty clear that he is matchfixing.
DRG-Creator could very well be legit match that just got voided as a precautionary measure, which you can hardly fault Pinnacle for with 2/3 Prime matches showing suspect line movements during the same day.
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime?
Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go.
Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues.
MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal.
After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me.
as long as there is room for doubt, and there will be until a player gets banned or kicked off a team or does jail time, people will keep watching and cheering if they think its fun
personally as a fan who rates myself slightly below "hardcore" (watch as much as i can but not the most informed) i trust the word of the people who understand how betting lines work and think it's very very likely that there's a problem. but there's not really much for me to do about it. i'm not going to waste my time and energy trying to be part of some campaign to "put pressure" on kespa or choose not to watch tournaments that are fun to watch. watching sc is a fun side thing for me, it's a few hours a week of entertainment, and there's really no incentive for me to make it more about moral outrage over a matchfixing scandal than about just enjoying the games
the responsibility for solving the problem lies with kespa. if i were subscribing to GSL or something then perhaps i would reconsider, but i already don't put money into the scene. don't get me wrong, i would like the games to be legit and i hope something actually happens, but at the end of the day it's a computer game i watch for fun. it's up to the people in the industry to make it run properly
A decent timing and bomber would have lost. There is no 0% in SC II and there is no 10% in Korea. Hell even 20% is extremly unlikely, in a Bo1 out of limits.
On May 12 2015 09:27 Pugfarmer wrote: More like 5%
Not to sound overly douchey (well ok maybe a bit), but I'm better at this than you, i've been betting on Starcraft for several years and made thousands of dollars in the process and i've just taken a position assisting a sports betting organisation with a variation of arbitrage betting and have played poker professionally for 7 years making mid six figures in the process. Most non gamblers cannot accurately gauge probability, i've literally been making a living because of said lack of ability to gauge probability for years.
B4 was not +2000 in this match, he would be +2000 in a best of 25 series or something maybe which is what you're thinking, but in a single map I doubt ANY GM player is a +2000 underdog to Bomber. One of my friends is a Euro GM ranked about 40, he's taken maps off Proleague players and there's a BIG gap from that to B4, even if he's a weaker proleague player.
Bomber hasn't won 10 maps straight since 2012 which would be required on a regular basis for the 1.08 line to be legitimate, and i'm pretty sure he's never won 20 maps straight, which would be required for your probability to be accurate. This includes foreign tournaments, where the average player is worse than B4.
In the last year alone, Bomber has lost maps to the following players
0-2 Zoun 1-2 Penguin 1-2 Dynamite 1-2 Has 0-2 Top 2-1 Slam 1-2 Targa 0-2 Toodming 2-1 Miniraser 2-1 Ret 1-2 Balloon 2-1 Masa
Between these twelve players, Bomber has dropped 20 maps in the past year. This is in notable tournaments alone, not including ladder etc.
As a group, they are not better than B4; you'd be hard pressed to argue that more than 3-4 of them would be a favourite against B4.
In the same time period, B4 has map or outright wins over the following players in tournament play (multiple times in many cases)
I also checked all the way back to the start of Aligulac and B4 has never lost 10 tracked maps in a row; his longest losing streak was 9 maps.
There is no way Bomber was a 92% favourite in a best of 1 here, let alone a 95% favourite as you're suggesting, especially when we factor in that the map has a 57% winrate for Zerg in the matchup in major tournaments
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime?
Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go.
Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues.
MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal.
After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me.
You're asking tournaments not to invite players on a no-evidence basis? That would be wildly unprofessional. If DH had said "we believe MK matchfixed and will forbid him to play", the only consequence would be that MVP would boycott DH for making a call that's contradictory to their own internal investigation based on circumstantial evidence, and most likely prevent any of their players from playing in future DH events because of it.
He spreads creep in 3 lines with a bunch of tumors each, but does not use A SINGLE TUMOR to connect his third base with with his creep and the other bases. He plants his Evos at 10:00 (hots time) at his not connected third. He even plants there his macro hatch, still no connected creep.
Upgrades: Evos at 10 in front of his third. He starts his upgradeds at 10:50 with a floating amount of 800/700. The "kill my upgrading evos for free card" is taken by his enemy. His new evos are placed behind his natural.
Forgetten one key upgrade. We have seen life making this shit. So banelingspeed is no evidence at all, the game itself is hardly anything but Prime never fielding this player again. Zerg building evos in front of never connected third at 10:00. Sorry, dont field him or pay him more.
Sad story, but it is fun, just some days after KESPA statement and so many people said "so know you ignorrant people have your statement and see, everything fine, KESPA solves this", rigged bets and thus a highly chance of fixing has occured again. And yeah, Rekruls postings told enough.
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime?
Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go.
Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues.
MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal.
After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me.
You're asking tournaments not to invite players on a no-evidence basis? That would be wildly unprofessional. If DH had said "we believe MK matchfixed and will forbid him to play", the only consequence would be that MVP would boycott DH for making a call that's contradictory to their own internal investigation based on circumstantial evidence, and most likely prevent any of their players from playing in future DH events because of it.
To which I think a lot of people's responses would be "Let them"
On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote: Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it. .
Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days.
Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal.
It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime?
Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go.
Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues.
MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal.
After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me.
You're asking tournaments not to invite players on a no-evidence basis? That would be wildly unprofessional. If DH had said "we believe MK matchfixed and will forbid him to play", the only consequence would be that MVP would boycott DH for making a call that's contradictory to their own internal investigation based on circumstantial evidence, and most likely prevent any of their players from playing in future DH events because of it.
Err I'm sorry but that would not be unprofessional. That's taking a decision, and as long as they don't whine about MVP not sending players to their events afterwards they'd be being professional. We have seen this kind of things in pro cycling for example, where organizers have refused some teams to participate based on doping assumptions.
For what it's worth I received an email from Pinnacle in response to questions i'd asked clarifying that all team vs team bets will be voided going forward if any of the individual matches are voided for suspicious betting activity
On May 13 2015 07:56 Swoopae wrote: For what it's worth I received an email from Pinnacle in response to questions i'd asked clarifying that all team vs team bets will be voided going forward if any of the individual matches are voided for suspicious betting activity
Makes sense.
And I really hope that someone is actually going after these fixers, even if I can understand that kespa don't want to say it out in the open that they are investigating. (Also, swiping on my phone, "kespa" first turned into "Jesus" and on the second try "kappa"... :D coincidence? COINCIDENCE??)
So guys, what do you think should be done? Should the community step up somehow? The shit thing is that the fixing will continue and probably will increase with time since the obvious fixers are still playing games without any repercussions.
I think we should step up awareness somehow. It's sad that really a lot of people do not know about this obvious match-fixing.
I'm not sure what else we could do. Potentially could threaten to boycott sponsors of events that players suspected of match fixing are invited to, but that just pulls money out of esports by chasing all sponsors away. It sucks that if there's an investigation we don't know about we could be jeopardising it by calling for public action, but what would suck more is if there isn't an investigation and Kespa literally believe no matches in any of their leagues have ever been fixed and that the situation doesn't warrant investigation.
If this was a one off incident, even with the substantial circumstantial evidence we have, I could maybe write it off as being caused by something else but it's literally happening every other week at the moment, what are we up to now, 7 players with matches voided for suspicion of fixing including two GSL winners? Not to mention no action being taken regarding the Marineking match which was the most blatant of the seven which was just absurd and MVP claiming they knew that the match wasn't fixed but not releasing any proof publicly.
SC2 is just a small pot of the overall big picture. The illegal gambling is rampant in almost every sport in Korea, and it's safe to assume that each sport has a broker and cheaters who facilitate this unfortunate trend.
So, your question is: what can we do about it? My answer is start by not accepting shitty performances from players. Start expecting more professionalism and high quality of play from the ones you cheer for. Put more pressure on the players to be self-aware of the situation and deed that they are becoming a part of.
You can talk about the Kespa and GSL organizations all day and never see the end of this tunnel. You have to realize that this problem is just not in SC2, but it's also in LoL, Dota2, soccer, baseball, basketball, you name it. This is bigger than what you probably have been thinking. So, what we, as a fan, can do is to raise the bar on the players themselves, in hopes of them making the right choice when the "opportunity" knocks on their door (like SoulKey and Solar did).
On May 13 2015 13:36 jellyjello wrote: SC2 is just a small pot of the overall big picture. The illegal gambling is rampant in almost every sport in Korea, and it's safe to assume that each sport has a broker and cheaters who facilitate this unfortunate trend.
So, your question is: what can we do about it? My answer is start by not accepting shitty performances from players. Start expecting more professionalism and high quality of play from the ones you cheer for. Put more pressure on the players to be self-aware of the situation and deed that they are becoming a part of.
You can talk about the Kespa and GSL organizations all day and never see the end of this tunnel. You have to realize that this problem is just not in SC2, but it's also in LoL, Dota2, soccer, baseball, basketball, you name it. This is bigger than what you probably have been thinking. So, what we, as a fan, can do is to raise the bar on the players themselves, in hopes of them making the right choice when the "opportunity" knocks on their door (like SoulKey and Solar did).
This is bigger than what you probably have been thinking
Most people, at least the ones aware of SC2 match fixing, do understand that this is not just happening in SC2. We do read papers or at least watch the news.
So, what we, as a fan, can do is to raise the bar on the players themselves
What do you suggest we do?
like SoulKey and Solar did
You do realize Soulkey is one of the 7 suspects do you?
Really interested to see whether Pinnacle or any other site offers lines on Prime's match this week in Proleague (I doubt it) and whether there are any more voids this week (I hope not, we'll see I guess)
On May 15 2015 06:25 Swoopae wrote: Really interested to see whether Pinnacle or any other site offers lines on Prime's match this week in Proleague (I doubt it) and whether there are any more voids this week (I hope not, we'll see I guess)
I wasn't able to watch the lines/series today, all of my bets were graded (Bravo, Yonghwa, Byul matches). I know CJ vs SKT was graded, so none of those were, if someone who had a bet on Samsung/MVP could confirm thats graded too it means no voids this week as Pinnacle told me midweek in an email any individual voided game will lead to the series result being voided as well moving forward.
Pinnacle aren't offering odds for the Prime match this week again so they clearly suspect something isn't right there. None of the Jinair or Sbenu players playing today have been involved in voids; only Sbenu player who has is San, and he's not playing today. Will see what happens I guess.
On May 13 2015 13:36 jellyjello wrote: SC2 is just a small pot of the overall big picture. The illegal gambling is rampant in almost every sport in Korea, and it's safe to assume that each sport has a broker and cheaters who facilitate this unfortunate trend.
So, your question is: what can we do about it? My answer is start by not accepting shitty performances from players. Start expecting more professionalism and high quality of play from the ones you cheer for. Put more pressure on the players to be self-aware of the situation and deed that they are becoming a part of.
You can talk about the Kespa and GSL organizations all day and never see the end of this tunnel. You have to realize that this problem is just not in SC2, but it's also in LoL, Dota2, soccer, baseball, basketball, you name it. This is bigger than what you probably have been thinking. So, what we, as a fan, can do is to raise the bar on the players themselves, in hopes of them making the right choice when the "opportunity" knocks on their door (like SoulKey and Solar did).
This is bigger than what you probably have been thinking
Most people, at least the ones aware of SC2 match fixing, do understand that this is not just happening in SC2. We do read papers or at least watch the news.
On May 13 2015 13:36 jellyjello wrote: SC2 is just a small pot of the overall big picture. The illegal gambling is rampant in almost every sport in Korea, and it's safe to assume that each sport has a broker and cheaters who facilitate this unfortunate trend.
So, your question is: what can we do about it? My answer is start by not accepting shitty performances from players. Start expecting more professionalism and high quality of play from the ones you cheer for. Put more pressure on the players to be self-aware of the situation and deed that they are becoming a part of.
You can talk about the Kespa and GSL organizations all day and never see the end of this tunnel. You have to realize that this problem is just not in SC2, but it's also in LoL, Dota2, soccer, baseball, basketball, you name it. This is bigger than what you probably have been thinking. So, what we, as a fan, can do is to raise the bar on the players themselves, in hopes of them making the right choice when the "opportunity" knocks on their door (like SoulKey and Solar did).
This is bigger than what you probably have been thinking
Most people, at least the ones aware of SC2 match fixing, do understand that this is not just happening in SC2. We do read papers or at least watch the news.
the previous poster's insinuation that the solution to matchfixing is to "put pressure on players to play well" is honestly one of the most ridiculous moebius strips of logic that i have ever come across in my life
putting more pressure on players to perform well (since when are they not already under such pressure anyway?) lest they be shunned by the community is just going to drive more midlevel/less successful players to looking for shady ways of making money
Yeah it's absurd to suspect players of match fixing for poor performance alone; it's only poor/suspicious play combined with suspicious betting activity and bets being voided by legitimate bookmakers prior to matches that should arouse legitimate suspicion of match fixing (player being bet into a 10-1 favourite or similar in a bo1 for example; or favourite being a 3-1 favourite for the series but a 3-1 underdog for the first map specifically)
Fortunately seems like there were no voids this week that i'm aware of, although betting lines on the Prime match weren't offered as I assume there has been too much suspicious betting activity/voids for Pinnacle (and presumably other books) to continue to take that risk
On May 13 2015 13:36 jellyjello wrote: So, your question is: what can we do about it? My answer is start by not accepting shitty performances from players. Start expecting more professionalism and high quality of play from the ones you cheer for. Put more pressure on the players to be self-aware of the situation and deed that they are becoming a part of.
problem is not lack of skill, but decision to withdraw it
problem is not whether fan acknowledge or not, it is whether organization, team and fellow player acknowledge in public and privately instead of embarrass
problem is that player have to eat, and they will eat from whatever hands; if player cannot find food from legitimate source they will find it elsewhere or they will retire because they are all human being
star2 has too many player for the amount of food available.
EPT
Happy they made a statement though.![[image loading]](http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg169/Myrkskogg/kespa_zpsxqvfdjwt.jpg)
isclaimer theorycrafting****![[image loading]](http://i1087.photobucket.com/albums/j475/SwoopAE/line_zps2dximvhq.png)
