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On May 12 2015 06:24 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2015 06:05 Samx wrote:
This was the damage to the sport that I was fearing after Kespa/blizzard/MVP did nothing to mkp after the match. It sends out a clear message to the rest of the players. Go forth n fix. See mkp? Blatant as hell, what do we do? Pretend that nothing is happening. Release statements saying all is fine
This would kill the sc2 scene. More and more fans will become deluded and not watch/support the scene anymore. Well what do you really expect would happen? Even at this point, even after like 8 voids or so, if you go outside of this thread, about 80% of the community still thinks that this is just a witchhunt with zero evidence and that we should "leave the players alone" We have reddit's /starcraft/ downvoting anything related to matchfixing and upvoting any nonsense like "zero proof, innocent before guilty, player 'x' was going to win anyway" We have people like Wolf, saying "Forget about it, move on" on the ProLeague stream and posting that "There is still literally no proof that match-fixing has occurred in Korean SC2" A lot of community figures will just keep quite because the matchfixing scandal or any damage to the sc2 scene could potentially hurt them financially. Thats why you see clueless people like TotalBiscuit coming here and pretending they know what they are talking about and trying to convience everyone that we have no real evidence of anything. When the majority of the community and Kespa shows zero interest in finding out the truth and would rather pretend that "nothing is going on" - we will have this charade going on for as long as possible. We already had the most blatant matchfixing you can imagine (MKP's game) - no effect. People confirming that matchfixing is rampant in korea - no effect. Matches being voided almost every week - no effect. If dota2/Csgo would have anything NEAR close to the pile of evidence we have - the shit would be blown out of proportion in a matter of hours/days. Here we have matchfixing going on for MONTHS - and still practically no one cares. At this point you just have to ask the important question - how come the Sc2 community is that retarded?
Great Post, even Mods here pretend that nothing is happening, poor MKP, He just played like mentally retarded but He shocks sometimes, 3 times in less than in a minute in a TV match, everything is just fine, but people are aware of this, look at DH Finals with the outstanding viewers number of 35k, that was really bad.
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Australia3123 Posts
On May 12 2015 07:27 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2015 07:17 showstealer1829 wrote:
The Yoda-Myungsik match being voided somewhere doesn't shock me just watching Pinnacle's line. That had a lot of action on it. Although not entirely suspicious action. But Yoda's odds were swinging violently in the half hour before that match started, like literally one minute he'd be 2.00, the next he'd be 6.00-7.00. Not suspicious, but there was money around that game Did he really went to 6.00-7.00? Even 3.00 would be already very suspect, with 4.00 being near conclusive. 6.00-7.00 is nothing but 200% fixed.
As I said it swung minute to minute. The highest I saw Yoda go was about 6.80...that was just before the start of the DRG match, the DRG-Creator match by comparison barely moved at all. Creator stayed pretty much between 2.00-2.30 the entire time I watched the lines.
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Well i've already heard some opinions that Yoda threw that game from people who did not see the line movements at all.
Given that Yoda was already under suspicion from his recent match vs Bunny and this line move to 6.8 is makes it pretty clear that he is matchfixing.
DRG-Creator could very well be legit match that just got voided as a precautionary measure, which you can hardly fault Pinnacle for with 2/3 Prime matches showing suspect line movements during the same day.
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On May 12 2015 07:22 Popkiller wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2015 07:06 maGicc wrote:On May 12 2015 06:53 sushiman wrote:On May 12 2015 06:40 maGicc wrote:On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote:
Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it.
. Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days. Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal. It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime? Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go. Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues. MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal. After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me. as long as there is room for doubt, and there will be until a player gets banned or kicked off a team or does jail time, people will keep watching and cheering if they think its fun
personally as a fan who rates myself slightly below "hardcore" (watch as much as i can but not the most informed) i trust the word of the people who understand how betting lines work and think it's very very likely that there's a problem. but there's not really much for me to do about it. i'm not going to waste my time and energy trying to be part of some campaign to "put pressure" on kespa or choose not to watch tournaments that are fun to watch. watching sc is a fun side thing for me, it's a few hours a week of entertainment, and there's really no incentive for me to make it more about moral outrage over a matchfixing scandal than about just enjoying the games
the responsibility for solving the problem lies with kespa. if i were subscribing to GSL or something then perhaps i would reconsider, but i already don't put money into the scene. don't get me wrong, i would like the games to be legit and i hope something actually happens, but at the end of the day it's a computer game i watch for fun. it's up to the people in the industry to make it run properly
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I don't know why they bothered to pay off Boong. He would have lost anyways and it wouldn't have been so obvious.
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A decent timing and bomber would have lost. There is no 0% in SC II and there is no 10% in Korea. Hell even 20% is extremly unlikely, in a Bo1 out of limits.
At least these players generate some income...
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On May 12 2015 09:27 Pugfarmer wrote:
More like 5%
Not to sound overly douchey (well ok maybe a bit), but I'm better at this than you, i've been betting on Starcraft for several years and made thousands of dollars in the process and i've just taken a position assisting a sports betting organisation with a variation of arbitrage betting and have played poker professionally for 7 years making mid six figures in the process. Most non gamblers cannot accurately gauge probability, i've literally been making a living because of said lack of ability to gauge probability for years.
B4 was not +2000 in this match, he would be +2000 in a best of 25 series or something maybe which is what you're thinking, but in a single map I doubt ANY GM player is a +2000 underdog to Bomber. One of my friends is a Euro GM ranked about 40, he's taken maps off Proleague players and there's a BIG gap from that to B4, even if he's a weaker proleague player.
Bomber hasn't won 10 maps straight since 2012 which would be required on a regular basis for the 1.08 line to be legitimate, and i'm pretty sure he's never won 20 maps straight, which would be required for your probability to be accurate. This includes foreign tournaments, where the average player is worse than B4.
In the last year alone, Bomber has lost maps to the following players
0-2 Zoun
1-2 Penguin
1-2 Dynamite
1-2 Has
0-2 Top
2-1 Slam
1-2 Targa
0-2 Toodming
2-1 Miniraser
2-1 Ret
1-2 Balloon
2-1 Masa
Between these twelve players, Bomber has dropped 20 maps in the past year. This is in notable tournaments alone, not including ladder etc.
As a group, they are not better than B4; you'd be hard pressed to argue that more than 3-4 of them would be a favourite against B4.
In the same time period, B4 has map or outright wins over the following players in tournament play (multiple times in many cases)
Reality, Salvation, LiquidHero, Losira, Byun, Keen, Jjakji, Gumiho, Center, Dark, Heart, Trust, Seed, Emotion, Hurricane, Ragnarok, True, Rogue, Yonghwa, Marineking, Zoun, Penguin, Terror, Myungsik, Alive, Symbol, Hyun, Oz, Creator and MMA
I also checked all the way back to the start of Aligulac and B4 has never lost 10 tracked maps in a row; his longest losing streak was 9 maps.
There is no way Bomber was a 92% favourite in a best of 1 here, let alone a 95% favourite as you're suggesting, especially when we factor in that the map has a 57% winrate for Zerg in the matchup in major tournaments
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On May 12 2015 07:06 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2015 06:53 sushiman wrote:On May 12 2015 06:40 maGicc wrote:On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote:
Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it.
. Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days. Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal. It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime? Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go. Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues. MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal. After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me.
You're asking tournaments not to invite players on a no-evidence basis? That would be wildly unprofessional. If DH had said "we believe MK matchfixed and will forbid him to play", the only consequence would be that MVP would boycott DH for making a call that's contradictory to their own internal investigation based on circumstantial evidence, and most likely prevent any of their players from playing in future DH events because of it.
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Just rewatched the game:
Creepspread:
He spreads creep in 3 lines with a bunch of tumors each, but does not use A SINGLE TUMOR to connect his third base with with his creep and the other bases.
He plants his Evos at 10:00 (hots time) at his not connected third. He even plants there his macro hatch, still no connected creep.
Upgrades:
Evos at 10 in front of his third. He starts his upgradeds at 10:50 with a floating amount of 800/700.
The "kill my upgrading evos for free card" is taken by his enemy.
His new evos are placed behind his natural.
Forgetten one key upgrade. We have seen life making this shit. So banelingspeed is no evidence at all, the game itself is hardly anything but Prime never fielding this player again. Zerg building evos in front of never connected third at 10:00. Sorry, dont field him or pay him more.
Sad story, but it is fun, just some days after KESPA statement and so many people said "so know you ignorrant people have your statement and see, everything fine, KESPA solves this", rigged bets and thus a highly chance of fixing has occured again.
And yeah, Rekruls postings told enough.
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Australia3123 Posts
On May 12 2015 09:39 sushiman wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2015 07:06 maGicc wrote:On May 12 2015 06:53 sushiman wrote:On May 12 2015 06:40 maGicc wrote:On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote:
Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it.
. Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days. Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal. It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime? Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go. Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues. MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal. After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me. You're asking tournaments not to invite players on a no-evidence basis? That would be wildly unprofessional. If DH had said "we believe MK matchfixed and will forbid him to play", the only consequence would be that MVP would boycott DH for making a call that's contradictory to their own internal investigation based on circumstantial evidence, and most likely prevent any of their players from playing in future DH events because of it.
To which I think a lot of people's responses would be "Let them"
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On May 12 2015 09:39 sushiman wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2015 07:06 maGicc wrote:On May 12 2015 06:53 sushiman wrote:On May 12 2015 06:40 maGicc wrote:On May 12 2015 06:30 DJHelium wrote:
Maybe it has to do with the scene being in korea - it's hard for us fans to get in contact with the players and learn their thoughts. Imagine if Marineking was streaming regularly, he would have to talk to his fans about it. Until this recent news with Soulkey in Kespa Cup, we don't even know if koreans fans were talking about it.
. Still does not explain the thickness of the sc2 community. I assure you, even after 1 dota2 void the whole team would get banned from every tournament in a matter of days. Here we have near 10 voids and players still showing up and play like its nothing. Its absolutely surreal. It's not surreal. No matter how much people like you scream "BETTING LINES!!1", that doesn't change the fact that this would be: a) a police investigation, which would not be public, and b) very likely to be lacking in evidence unless someone is caught red-handed or confess to it. The betting sites are also illegal in Korea, would you expect the teams to blindly go by them as evidence of their players being guilty of a crime? Some people seem to forget that this would be treated as a serious crime and be completely under internal investigation, you're not going to get anything unless they get some actual evidence, like what happened during the BW scandal when everyone was essentially rounded up in one go. Dont mix up criminal charges with community/tournaments aknowledging the fact that "yep, they are 99% matchfixing" - do not invite them to the tournaments, do not support them, let them know you are aware that they are throwing matches, do not watch the rigged korean leagues. MarineKing coming to dreamhack and crowd cheering for him - yes, thats surreal. After all that shit yet another match getting voided today and someone posting on reddit "Can we please stop making these threads, its all just speculation" - and getting massive upvotes - yes, thats freaking surreal to me. You're asking tournaments not to invite players on a no-evidence basis? That would be wildly unprofessional. If DH had said "we believe MK matchfixed and will forbid him to play", the only consequence would be that MVP would boycott DH for making a call that's contradictory to their own internal investigation based on circumstantial evidence, and most likely prevent any of their players from playing in future DH events because of it.
Err I'm sorry but that would not be unprofessional. That's taking a decision, and as long as they don't whine about MVP not sending players to their events afterwards they'd be being professional. We have seen this kind of things in pro cycling for example, where organizers have refused some teams to participate based on doping assumptions.
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Innovation? o.O
Where did that come from
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For what it's worth I received an email from Pinnacle in response to questions i'd asked clarifying that all team vs team bets will be voided going forward if any of the individual matches are voided for suspicious betting activity
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On May 13 2015 07:56 Swoopae wrote:
For what it's worth I received an email from Pinnacle in response to questions i'd asked clarifying that all team vs team bets will be voided going forward if any of the individual matches are voided for suspicious betting activity
Makes sense.
And I really hope that someone is actually going after these fixers, even if I can understand that kespa don't want to say it out in the open that they are investigating. (Also, swiping on my phone, "kespa" first turned into "Jesus" and on the second try "kappa"... :D coincidence? COINCIDENCE??)
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So guys, what do you think should be done? Should the community step up somehow? The shit thing is that the fixing will continue and probably will increase with time since the obvious fixers are still playing games without any repercussions.
I think we should step up awareness somehow. It's sad that really a lot of people do not know about this obvious match-fixing.
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I'm not sure what else we could do. Potentially could threaten to boycott sponsors of events that players suspected of match fixing are invited to, but that just pulls money out of esports by chasing all sponsors away. It sucks that if there's an investigation we don't know about we could be jeopardising it by calling for public action, but what would suck more is if there isn't an investigation and Kespa literally believe no matches in any of their leagues have ever been fixed and that the situation doesn't warrant investigation.
If this was a one off incident, even with the substantial circumstantial evidence we have, I could maybe write it off as being caused by something else but it's literally happening every other week at the moment, what are we up to now, 7 players with matches voided for suspicion of fixing including two GSL winners? Not to mention no action being taken regarding the Marineking match which was the most blatant of the seven which was just absurd and MVP claiming they knew that the match wasn't fixed but not releasing any proof publicly.
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EPT
