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KeSPA's official statement on match fixing - Page 11

Forum Index > SC2 General
272 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 9 10 11 12 13 14 Next All
Swoopae
Profile Joined January 2015
Australia339 Posts
May 11 2015 17:57 GMT
#201
Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return
Swoopae
Profile Joined January 2015
Australia339 Posts
May 11 2015 18:05 GMT
#202
Pinnacle Sports ‏@PinnacleSports 10m10 minutes ago
@SwoopAE Bomber. Sorry for the lack of clarity on that.

(regarding the 1.08 line)
Popkiller
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
3415 Posts
May 11 2015 18:12 GMT
#203
in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?

Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?
spoonmaster
Profile Joined May 2012
United States347 Posts
May 11 2015 18:14 GMT
#204
Good investigating. And no, I don't personally bet on Pinnacle but bets were voided on the one I use too.
maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-11 18:16:04
May 11 2015 18:15 GMT
#205
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote:
in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?

Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?


As far as i know a lot of betting happening @korean sites that also offer lines for under/over 10 minutes or something like that (pinnacle/western sites doesnt offer these spreads)
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-11 19:01:49
May 11 2015 19:01 GMT
#206
On May 12 2015 03:15 maGicc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote:
in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?

Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?


As far as i know a lot of betting happening @korean sites that also offer lines for under/over 10 minutes or something like that (pinnacle/western sites doesnt offer these spreads)

That's what I partly don't understand. According to various sources in the other threads here on TL, the matchfixers would bet in Korea and what we see on Pinnacle would be non-Koreans who would know of the matchfix. But if we assume that Koreans bet on the games' duration, then corrupt progamers use all-in builds, as pointed out by rekrul iirc, to make sure that they either win or lose under X minutes. And when looking at the games voided by Pinnacle, not only do all but one iirc feature the overly favored player winning, but more importantly none of them feature all-ins?
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
Swoopae
Profile Joined January 2015
Australia339 Posts
May 11 2015 19:31 GMT
#207
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote:
in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?

Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?


They would be yes.

Nitrogensports voided todays too it seems like some other sportsbooks are taking the lead from Pinnacle on this

A lot of action would happen on illegal korean sportsbooks too
Swoopae
Profile Joined January 2015
Australia339 Posts
May 11 2015 19:32 GMT
#208
On May 12 2015 04:01 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2015 03:15 maGicc wrote:
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote:
in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites?

Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money?


As far as i know a lot of betting happening @korean sites that also offer lines for under/over 10 minutes or something like that (pinnacle/western sites doesnt offer these spreads)

That's what I partly don't understand. According to various sources in the other threads here on TL, the matchfixers would bet in Korea and what we see on Pinnacle would be non-Koreans who would know of the matchfix. But if we assume that Koreans bet on the games' duration, then corrupt progamers use all-in builds, as pointed out by rekrul iirc, to make sure that they either win or lose under X minutes. And when looking at the games voided by Pinnacle, not only do all but one iirc feature the overly favored player winning, but more importantly none of them feature all-ins?


Seperate issue imo, you can either fix the length or result of the match, it doesn't matter what you're fixing as long as you can bet on it somewhere if the goal is to make money betting on it (which I assume is the goal of the match fixers)
maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
May 11 2015 19:38 GMT
#209
Well first of all, betting on multiple books increases your chance to cashout from a fixed match - i got my bet on Drg-Creator graded on one book today, and canceled on the other.

Nitrogen also does not follow pinnacle 100% and graded some voided matches in the past.

Betting on game's duration is more risky to fix, because it will mean that losing player will either have to survive (risky), or go all-in and lose quickly (risky too - a) can look too much like a throw b) can actually win the game )

Someone mentioned that bets on duration is actually what players themselfs bet on, being favorites in the match.
Ovid
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
United Kingdom948 Posts
May 11 2015 19:42 GMT
#210
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote:
Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return


Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.
I will make Yogg Saron priest work...
maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
May 11 2015 19:45 GMT
#211
On May 12 2015 04:42 Ovid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote:
Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return


Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.


Oh really, so how much money did you put on Bomber today given that he played with both hands?
spoonmaster
Profile Joined May 2012
United States347 Posts
May 11 2015 20:07 GMT
#212
I personally dropped a hefty amount on Bomber when the lines opened. Odds weren't nearly close to the 4-1 it ended at though when it closed.
Swoopae
Profile Joined January 2015
Australia339 Posts
May 11 2015 20:11 GMT
#213
On May 12 2015 04:42 Ovid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote:
Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return


Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.


Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite; not a 12-1 favourite in a bo1 against B4.

It's not about who you think is going to win, it's about what percentage of the time they're going to win. 99% of people think that Bomber is a favourite in the match, no one disputes that, and at even money everyone would bet on Bomber. The problem is people continued to bet on Bomber at 1.08 odds meaning risking a thousand dollars wouldn't even net you a hundred dollars

Yes, Bomber was the favourite and deservedly so, but he lost a bo3 to Penguin and B4 beat Reality in a bo3 quite recently. Upsets are possible, and that's why you can't automatically bet on all favourites no matter how bad the odds are and print money; because the odds are based on probability

In this case, if you bet on Bomber at 1.08 ten times, and he wins 9 of them, you still LOSE money overall because of the odds. Does anything think Bomber is a favourite to go 10-0 against b4 in a bo19? Of course not. A 9-1 win for him would be a LOSS here.

It's about understanding odds and probability. Do I need to post my explanation of dynamic betting lines again?




maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
May 11 2015 20:13 GMT
#214
Yes, opening lines were quite good.

I am just annoyed when people say stuff like "well i would've bet it on Bomber/Innovation/Dark anyway" - well, why did not you? Saying that "you just dont gamble" will be a cop out, because if you are so 100% sure of the outcome its not really a gambling - since there is no risk of losing (according to some people).

Everyone is a hindsight genius when it comes to betting.
Swoopae
Profile Joined January 2015
Australia339 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-05-11 20:15:30
May 11 2015 20:14 GMT
#215
On May 12 2015 05:07 spoonmaster wrote:
I personally dropped a hefty amount on Bomber when the lines opened. Odds weren't nearly close to the 4-1 it ended at though when it closed.


Actually it ended at more like 12-1 favourite according to Pinnacle; see the screenshot I posted earlier in the thread. Personally I agree that the opening price was good on Bomber and may have bet it myself if I hadn't already made a large bet on Sbenu to win (which I thought was even more likely given it's effectively a best of 5, not 1 and the odds were similar)

4-1 wouldn't be totally unreasonable given Bomber is probably about a 75% favourite in a bo1. 12-1 is absurd, obviously, and points towards fixing. It is worth emphasising that most foreigners are not even this big of an underdog to Proleague players in bo5 matches let alone bo1s. A match like Parting vs some WCS Challenger league player would still only probably be about an 8-1 favourite for Parting in a bo1 (it might get higher if it was a bo3 or 5, where the favourite is less likely to lose multiple maps)
The_Red_Viper
Profile Blog Joined August 2013
19533 Posts
May 11 2015 20:23 GMT
#216
On May 12 2015 05:11 Swoopae wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2015 04:42 Ovid wrote:
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote:
Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return


Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.


Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite; not a 12-1 favourite in a bo1 against B4.

It's not about who you think is going to win, it's about what percentage of the time they're going to win. 99% of people think that Bomber is a favourite in the match, no one disputes that, and at even money everyone would bet on Bomber. The problem is people continued to bet on Bomber at 1.08 odds meaning risking a thousand dollars wouldn't even net you a hundred dollars

Yes, Bomber was the favourite and deservedly so, but he lost a bo3 to Penguin and B4 beat Reality in a bo3 quite recently. Upsets are possible, and that's why you can't automatically bet on all favourites no matter how bad the odds are and print money; because the odds are based on probability

In this case, if you bet on Bomber at 1.08 ten times, and he wins 9 of them, you still LOSE money overall because of the odds. Does anything think Bomber is a favourite to go 10-0 against b4 in a bo19? Of course not. A 9-1 win for him would be a LOSS here.

It's about understanding odds and probability. Do I need to post my explanation of dynamic betting lines again?





I wonder if there are people who bet on sc2 who don't understand this like the majority here on TL.
IU | Sohyang || There is no God and we are his prophets | For if ‘Thou mayest’—it is also true that ‘Thou mayest not.” | Ignorance is the parent of fear |
spoonmaster
Profile Joined May 2012
United States347 Posts
May 11 2015 20:26 GMT
#217
On May 12 2015 05:14 Swoopae wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2015 05:07 spoonmaster wrote:
I personally dropped a hefty amount on Bomber when the lines opened. Odds weren't nearly close to the 4-1 it ended at though when it closed.


Actually it ended at more like 12-1 favourite according to Pinnacle; see the screenshot I posted earlier in the thread. Personally I agree that the opening price was good on Bomber and may have bet it myself if I hadn't already made a large bet on Sbenu to win (which I thought was even more likely given it's effectively a best of 5, not 1 and the odds were similar)

4-1 wouldn't be totally unreasonable given Bomber is probably about a 75% favourite in a bo1. 12-1 is absurd, obviously, and points towards fixing. It is worth emphasising that most foreigners are not even this big of an underdog to Proleague players in bo5 matches let alone bo1s. A match like Parting vs some WCS Challenger league player would still only probably be about an 8-1 favourite for Parting in a bo1 (it might get higher if it was a bo3 or 5, where the favourite is less likely to lose multiple maps)

Yeah last time I saw 12-1 odds I think it was ForGG vs SouL TvT in WCS EU Challenger.
sixfour
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
England11061 Posts
May 11 2015 20:54 GMT
#218
so the match fixing which kespa is ignoring, are there any actual discussions/reports on korean websites or is it simply not reported?
p: stats, horang2, free, jangbi z: soulkey, zero, shine, hydra t: leta, hiya, sea
TheWinks
Profile Joined July 2011
United States572 Posts
May 11 2015 21:01 GMT
#219
On May 12 2015 05:11 Swoopae wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2015 04:42 Ovid wrote:
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote:
Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return


Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.


Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite

This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.
maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
May 11 2015 21:05 GMT
#220
On May 12 2015 06:01 TheWinks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2015 05:11 Swoopae wrote:
On May 12 2015 04:42 Ovid wrote:
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote:
Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return


Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4.


Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite

This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4.


Thats a blank statement backed by absolutely nothing.

If you think that putting Bomber as 3-1 fav in a bo1 over B4 is "massively underrestimating" Bomber - i assume that means that you put Bomber at least 90% fav over B4 in a bo1? Based on what, exactly?
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