EPTKeSPA's official statement on match fixing - Page 11
| Forum Index > SC2 General |
|
Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
| ||
|
Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
@SwoopAE Bomber. Sorry for the lack of clarity on that. (regarding the 1.08 line) | ||
|
Popkiller
3415 Posts
Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money? | ||
|
spoonmaster
United States347 Posts
| ||
|
maGicc
Finland134 Posts
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote: in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites? Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money? As far as i know a lot of betting happening @korean sites that also offer lines for under/over 10 minutes or something like that (pinnacle/western sites doesnt offer these spreads) | ||
|
OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On May 12 2015 03:15 maGicc wrote: As far as i know a lot of betting happening @korean sites that also offer lines for under/over 10 minutes or something like that (pinnacle/western sites doesnt offer these spreads) That's what I partly don't understand. According to various sources in the other threads here on TL, the matchfixers would bet in Korea and what we see on Pinnacle would be non-Koreans who would know of the matchfix. But if we assume that Koreans bet on the games' duration, then corrupt progamers use all-in builds, as pointed out by rekrul iirc, to make sure that they either win or lose under X minutes. And when looking at the games voided by Pinnacle, not only do all but one iirc feature the overly favored player winning, but more importantly none of them feature all-ins? | ||
|
Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On May 12 2015 03:12 Popkiller wrote: in a situation like this, are the same people betting on multiple betting sites? Some get voided, maybe some don't, and they still make money? They would be yes. Nitrogensports voided todays too it seems like some other sportsbooks are taking the lead from Pinnacle on this A lot of action would happen on illegal korean sportsbooks too | ||
|
Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On May 12 2015 04:01 OtherWorld wrote: That's what I partly don't understand. According to various sources in the other threads here on TL, the matchfixers would bet in Korea and what we see on Pinnacle would be non-Koreans who would know of the matchfix. But if we assume that Koreans bet on the games' duration, then corrupt progamers use all-in builds, as pointed out by rekrul iirc, to make sure that they either win or lose under X minutes. And when looking at the games voided by Pinnacle, not only do all but one iirc feature the overly favored player winning, but more importantly none of them feature all-ins? Seperate issue imo, you can either fix the length or result of the match, it doesn't matter what you're fixing as long as you can bet on it somewhere if the goal is to make money betting on it (which I assume is the goal of the match fixers) | ||
|
maGicc
Finland134 Posts
Nitrogen also does not follow pinnacle 100% and graded some voided matches in the past. Betting on game's duration is more risky to fix, because it will mean that losing player will either have to survive (risky), or go all-in and lose quickly (risky too - a) can look too much like a throw b) can actually win the game ) Someone mentioned that bets on duration is actually what players themselfs bet on, being favorites in the match. | ||
|
Ovid
United Kingdom948 Posts
On May 12 2015 02:57 Swoopae wrote: Will update when they answer whether that closing line was Bomber (I assume thats the case) or the Sbenu line as well; i've asked for clarification. For anyone unfamiliar with sportsbetting, that betting line means a wager of $1250 would yield a $100 return Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4. | ||
|
maGicc
Finland134 Posts
On May 12 2015 04:42 Ovid wrote: Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4. Oh really, so how much money did you put on Bomber today given that he played with both hands? | ||
|
spoonmaster
United States347 Posts
| ||
|
Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On May 12 2015 04:42 Ovid wrote: Even if Bomber was playing one handed I would still put my money on him over B4. Sorry B4. Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite; not a 12-1 favourite in a bo1 against B4. It's not about who you think is going to win, it's about what percentage of the time they're going to win. 99% of people think that Bomber is a favourite in the match, no one disputes that, and at even money everyone would bet on Bomber. The problem is people continued to bet on Bomber at 1.08 odds meaning risking a thousand dollars wouldn't even net you a hundred dollars Yes, Bomber was the favourite and deservedly so, but he lost a bo3 to Penguin and B4 beat Reality in a bo3 quite recently. Upsets are possible, and that's why you can't automatically bet on all favourites no matter how bad the odds are and print money; because the odds are based on probability In this case, if you bet on Bomber at 1.08 ten times, and he wins 9 of them, you still LOSE money overall because of the odds. Does anything think Bomber is a favourite to go 10-0 against b4 in a bo19? Of course not. A 9-1 win for him would be a LOSS here. It's about understanding odds and probability. Do I need to post my explanation of dynamic betting lines again? | ||
|
maGicc
Finland134 Posts
I am just annoyed when people say stuff like "well i would've bet it on Bomber/Innovation/Dark anyway" - well, why did not you? Saying that "you just dont gamble" will be a cop out, because if you are so 100% sure of the outcome its not really a gambling - since there is no risk of losing (according to some people). Everyone is a hindsight genius when it comes to betting. | ||
|
Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On May 12 2015 05:07 spoonmaster wrote: I personally dropped a hefty amount on Bomber when the lines opened. Odds weren't nearly close to the 4-1 it ended at though when it closed. Actually it ended at more like 12-1 favourite according to Pinnacle; see the screenshot I posted earlier in the thread. Personally I agree that the opening price was good on Bomber and may have bet it myself if I hadn't already made a large bet on Sbenu to win (which I thought was even more likely given it's effectively a best of 5, not 1 and the odds were similar) 4-1 wouldn't be totally unreasonable given Bomber is probably about a 75% favourite in a bo1. 12-1 is absurd, obviously, and points towards fixing. It is worth emphasising that most foreigners are not even this big of an underdog to Proleague players in bo5 matches let alone bo1s. A match like Parting vs some WCS Challenger league player would still only probably be about an 8-1 favourite for Parting in a bo1 (it might get higher if it was a bo3 or 5, where the favourite is less likely to lose multiple maps) | ||
|
The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On May 12 2015 05:11 Swoopae wrote: Bomber is objectively about a 3-1 favourite; not a 12-1 favourite in a bo1 against B4. It's not about who you think is going to win, it's about what percentage of the time they're going to win. 99% of people think that Bomber is a favourite in the match, no one disputes that, and at even money everyone would bet on Bomber. The problem is people continued to bet on Bomber at 1.08 odds meaning risking a thousand dollars wouldn't even net you a hundred dollars Yes, Bomber was the favourite and deservedly so, but he lost a bo3 to Penguin and B4 beat Reality in a bo3 quite recently. Upsets are possible, and that's why you can't automatically bet on all favourites no matter how bad the odds are and print money; because the odds are based on probability In this case, if you bet on Bomber at 1.08 ten times, and he wins 9 of them, you still LOSE money overall because of the odds. Does anything think Bomber is a favourite to go 10-0 against b4 in a bo19? Of course not. A 9-1 win for him would be a LOSS here. It's about understanding odds and probability. Do I need to post my explanation of dynamic betting lines again? I wonder if there are people who bet on sc2 who don't understand this like the majority here on TL. | ||
|
spoonmaster
United States347 Posts
On May 12 2015 05:14 Swoopae wrote: Actually it ended at more like 12-1 favourite according to Pinnacle; see the screenshot I posted earlier in the thread. Personally I agree that the opening price was good on Bomber and may have bet it myself if I hadn't already made a large bet on Sbenu to win (which I thought was even more likely given it's effectively a best of 5, not 1 and the odds were similar) 4-1 wouldn't be totally unreasonable given Bomber is probably about a 75% favourite in a bo1. 12-1 is absurd, obviously, and points towards fixing. It is worth emphasising that most foreigners are not even this big of an underdog to Proleague players in bo5 matches let alone bo1s. A match like Parting vs some WCS Challenger league player would still only probably be about an 8-1 favourite for Parting in a bo1 (it might get higher if it was a bo3 or 5, where the favourite is less likely to lose multiple maps) Yeah last time I saw 12-1 odds I think it was ForGG vs SouL TvT in WCS EU Challenger. | ||
|
sixfour
England11062 Posts
| ||
|
TheWinks
United States572 Posts
This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4. | ||
|
maGicc
Finland134 Posts
On May 12 2015 06:01 TheWinks wrote: This is massively underestimating Bomber's skill level over B4. Thats a blank statement backed by absolutely nothing. If you think that putting Bomber as 3-1 fav in a bo1 over B4 is "massively underrestimating" Bomber - i assume that means that you put Bomber at least 90% fav over B4 in a bo1? Based on what, exactly? | ||
| ||
