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WCS Predictor 2014 - Page 30

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
September 18 2014 16:13 GMT
#581
On September 19 2014 01:09 opisska wrote:
i guess for the next year you need to also predict scheduling conflicts and include that if someone gets too deep in wcs they will not sign up for dreamhacks. also you need to guess how much travel money each player gets and run only scenarios where they dont overshoot the budget

I think it'd be easier to build a time machine and just tell you who makes it to blizzcon lol, or keep it a secret and just use my knowledge for the player listings for each tournament
"Expert" mods4ever.com
RiskyChris
Profile Joined April 2012
125 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-09-18 16:19:30
September 18 2014 16:18 GMT
#582
On September 19 2014 01:08 oo_Wonderful_oo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2014 00:02 Digitalis wrote:
Ugh this is the fucking problem.
After looking at these brackets... Its just looks like a stacked Dreamhack which is great and all but
we all wanted WCS Global Finals to be the whole world, we wanted Kespa rubbing shoulders with everyone else.
The only thing that can save this is if JD can win it. Other than that it'll feel just like another Dreamhack and not the world fucking finals.


Jaedong's example this season is pretty much biggest thing which should force the system to change, because Jaedong hadn't done shit whole year and still almost guaranteed to advance until everything flops hardcore.


Jaedong is almost identical to HyuN last year

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series/Standings

As you can see this year what happens when HyuN also takes all the ladder points from WCS AM (infinity points), as well as what happens when you nerf WCS events and buff every other mom & pop event (Jaedong on lock anyway).
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
September 18 2014 16:25 GMT
#583
Breaking news, koreans decide to attend Dreamhack, foreigner chances plummet! Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % down to ~ 74.61 %, chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.88 % down to ~ 18.18 %. Will post more soon.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
September 18 2014 16:32 GMT
#584
On September 19 2014 01:25 Die4Ever wrote:
Breaking news, koreans decide to attend Dreamhack, foreigner chances plummet! Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % down to ~ 74.61 %, chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.88 % down to ~ 18.18 %. Will post more soon.

Most shocking news of 2014 IMO
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
September 18 2014 16:59 GMT
#585
--------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Stockholm Player List Set!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
  1. kr HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
  2. kr Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5550
  3. kr MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5200
  4. kr San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5125
  5. kr TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
  6. kr Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
  7. kr StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
  8. kr Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
  9. kr jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3350
  10. kr Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 99.25 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
  11. kr Life (StarTale), is at ~ 96.85 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
  12. kr herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 95.31 %, Min WCS Points: 3100
  13. kr MMA (Acer), is at ~ 65.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2725
  14. kr Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 64.65 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
  15. kr sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 57.73 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
  16. no Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 53.52 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
  17. kr soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 30.68 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
  18. kr INnoVation, is at ~ 30.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
  19. ca Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 19.87 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
  20. kr Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 14.15 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
  21. dk Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 13.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
  22. kr YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 13.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
  23. kr ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 11.21 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
  24. kr Pigbaby, is at ~ 10.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
  25. kr HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 8.08 %, Min WCS Points: 2250


WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.16 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.31 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 44.7 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 64.36 % in yesterday's post)
~ 51.99 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

Biggest winners and losers since yesterday's post before the full Stockholm player list was set.
Biggest Winners
kr soO went up by ~ 12.6 %, going from ~ 18.08 % to ~ 30.68 %
kr MMA went up by ~ 10.19 %, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 65.36 %
kr YoDa went up by ~ 5.11 %, going from ~ 8.19 % to ~ 13.31 %
kr Jaedong went up by ~ 3.36 %, going from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 64.65 %
kr HerO went up by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 8.08 %
pl MaNa went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.82 % to ~ 0.98 %

Biggest Losers
no Snute went down by ~ 17.23 %, going from ~ 70.75 % to ~ 53.52 %
kr sOs went down by ~ 3.78 %, going from ~ 61.51 % to ~ 57.73 %
kr Life went down by ~ 2.58 %, going from ~ 99.43 % to ~ 96.85 %
dk Bunny went down by ~ 1.89 %, going from ~ 15.88 % to ~ 13.99 %
kr Heart went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 6.89 % to ~ 5.14 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

kr ForGG went down by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 12.18 % to ~ 11.21 %
ca HuK went down by ~ 0.9 %, going from ~ 3.33 % to ~ 2.43 %
kr herO went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 96.08 % to ~ 95.31 %
kr Classic went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 99.25 %
ca Scarlett went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 20.49 % to ~ 19.87 %
kr Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 10.92 % to ~ 10.36 %
ru Happy went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 0.1 %
kr Cure went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 0.31 %
kr Golden went down by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 3.38 % to ~ 3.12 %
fr Dayshi went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 0.32 %
kr INnoVation went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 30.81 % to ~ 30.62 %
kr viOLet went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.03 %
kr Rain went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 14.26 % to ~ 14.15 %


Foreigner Hope
Snute ~ 37.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 53.52 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 9.75 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.87 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 6.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.99 % chance overall.
HuK ~ 1.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.43 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 1.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.63 % chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

MaNa ~ 0.25 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.98 % chance overall.
Dayshi ~ 0.11 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.32 % chance overall.
Happy ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.1 % chance overall.
TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.


Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % to ~ 74.6 %
Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.87 % to ~ 18.16 %

So let's do another checkup lol. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 3 players over 0.1%.
From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances

GSL
kr Rain would gain ~ 85.86 % if they win, with a ~ 14.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.14 % to ~ 100 %
kr soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 5.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 100 %
kr INnoVation would gain ~ 68.91 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.62 % to ~ 99.54 %

WCS AM
kr HerO would gain ~ 91.92 % if they win, with a ~ 6.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 100 %
kr Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.63 % if they win, with a ~ 6.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 100 %
ca Scarlett would gain ~ 80.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.86 % to ~ 99.99 %
kr Heart would gain ~ 59.62 % if they win, with a ~ 7.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.14 % to ~ 64.76 %
ca HuK would gain ~ 44.64 % if they win, with a ~ 5.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 47.06 %

WCS EU
fi Welmu would gain ~ 97.36 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 99.99 %
kr ForGG would gain ~ 88.79 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 99.99 %
dk Bunny would gain ~ 86.01 % if they win, with a ~ 11.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 100 %
kr Golden would gain ~ 85.02 % if they win, with a ~ 3.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 88.14 %
kr YoDa would gain ~ 50.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 63.53 %
pl MaNa would gain ~ 37.55 % if they win, with a ~ 2.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 38.54 %
kr MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 %
fr Dayshi would gain ~ 17.31 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 17.63 %

Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance, probably relying on the Placeholder Tournament.
kr Cure would gain ~ 1.21 % if they win, with a ~ 20.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 1.53 %
kr Stats would gain ~ 0.03 % if they win, with a ~ 11.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 %
ru Happy would gain ~ 0.86 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.96 %

Here are some simple events for GSL.
+ Show Spoiler [GSL Events] +

~ 8.35 % of the time
soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S
This would change soO's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 94.02 %

~ 27.55 % of the time
soO gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S
This would change soO's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 39.37 %

~ 9.99 % of the time
Rain gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S
This would change Rain's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 14.14 % to ~ 0.13 %

~ 22.84 % of the time
INnoVation gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S
This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 30.63 % to ~ 0.03 %

~ 25.89 % of the time
Cure gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S
This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 0 %


Simple events for WCS AM
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Events] +

~ 9.08 % of the time
Pigbaby gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 40.7 %

~ 9.94 % of the time
HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 11.26 %

~ 12.21 % of the time
Scarlett gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 7.6 %

~ 20.52 % of the time
HerO gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 2.44 %

~ 22.87 % of the time
Pigbaby gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 0.39 %

~ 26.78 % of the time
Scarlett gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 0.06 %

~ 11.5 % of the time
HuK gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 0.01 %

~ 11.47 % of the time
Heart gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 5.14 % to ~ 0.01 %


Simple events for WCS EU
+ Show Spoiler [WCS EU Events] +

~ 7.56 % of the time
MMA gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 %

~ 14.71 % of the time
MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 99.92 %

~ 28.35 % of the time
MMA gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 80.52 %

~ 12.92 % of the time
Bunny gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 10.41 %

~ 8.17 % of the time
ForGG gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 6.01 %

~ 25.51 % of the time
Bunny gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 3.27 %

~ 15.1 % of the time
ForGG gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 1.98 %

~ 4.54 % of the time
Welmu gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 1.12 %

~ 10.85 % of the time
Welmu gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 0.09 %

~ 49.8 % of the time
Bunny gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 0.09 %

~ 5.8 % of the time
Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 0.03 %

~ 26.96 % of the time
ForGG gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 0.02 %

~ 13.78 % of the time
YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 0.02 %

~ 24.49 % of the time
YoDa gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 0.01 %

~ 3.34 % of the time
Dayshi gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Dayshi's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 0.01 %

~ 26.88 % of the time
Welmu gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 0.01 %

~ 4.4 % of the time
MaNa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change MaNa's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 0.01 %

~ 12.33 % of the time
Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0 %


We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them.
no Snute
~ 3.01 % of the time
Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 100 %

~ 3.13 % of the time
Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 6.07 % of the time
Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.85 %

~ 11.48 % of the time
Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 93.74 %

~ 20.74 % of the time
Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 68.66 %

~ 27.81 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 29.36 %

kr sOs
~ 14.85 % of the time
sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 %

~ 13.12 % of the time
sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 99.97 %

~ 25.06 % of the time
sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 98.97 %

~ 46.97 % of the time
sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 10.58 %

kr Jaedong
~ 2.25 % of the time
Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 100 %

~ 2.67 % of the time
Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 5.33 % of the time
Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.86 %

~ 10.52 % of the time
Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 94.81 %

~ 19.91 % of the time
Jaedong gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 74.58 %

~ 29.02 % of the time
Jaedong gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 49.82 %

Then we also have Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm.
Red Bull Washington Winning Gains
kr sOs would gain ~ 42.26 % if they win, with a ~ 14.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 %
ca Scarlett would gain ~ 5.36 % if they win, with a ~ 14.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 25.22 %
kr Cure would gain ~ 2.05 % if they win, with a ~ 12.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 2.37 %
kr PartinG would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 14.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
kr Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

kr Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
kr DongRaeGu would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.73 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
kr Trap would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %


DreamHack Stockholm Winning Gains
kr soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 3.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 99.99 %
kr HerO would gain ~ 59.79 % if they win, with a ~ 1.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 67.86 %
no Snute would gain ~ 46.48 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 53.52 % to ~ 100 %
kr Jaedong would gain ~ 35.34 % if they win, with a ~ 2.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 64.66 % to ~ 100 %
kr MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 3.71 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

dk Bunny would gain ~ 30.81 % if they win, with a ~ 4.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 44.81 %
kr ForGG would gain ~ 14.28 % if they win, with a ~ 4.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 25.49 %
kr YoDa would gain ~ 7.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.29 % to ~ 20.94 %
kr herO would gain ~ 4.7 % if they win, with a ~ 6.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.3 % to ~ 100 %
fi Welmu would gain ~ 4.69 % if they win, with a ~ 1.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 7.32 %
kr Life would gain ~ 3.15 % if they win, with a ~ 5.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 96.85 % to ~ 100 %
ca HuK would gain ~ 2.8 % if they win, with a ~ 1.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 5.22 %
pl MaNa would gain ~ 1.6 % if they win, with a ~ 0.97 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 2.58 %
fr Dayshi would gain ~ 1.48 % if they win, with a ~ 1.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 1.8 %
kr Classic would gain ~ 0.75 % if they win, with a ~ 3.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.25 % to ~ 100 %
kr Golden would gain ~ 0.49 % if they win, with a ~ 1.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 3.62 %
kr Solar would gain ~ 0.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.08 %
kr TRUE would gain ~ 0.05 % if they win, with a ~ 2.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 %
de TLO would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.78 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
kr Oz would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
kr First would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 3.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
kr jjakji would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 %
se MorroW would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
fr MarineLord would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
sg Blysk would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
ca Kane would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.31 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
se Zanster would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
se SortOf would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
au PiG would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
de Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
nl Ret would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
uk DeMusliM would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
fr ToD would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
nl Grubby would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
nl uThermal would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
kr Leenock would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
no TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
kr Ryung would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
kr Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
kr Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
kr HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
kr Patience would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
kr MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
fr Lilbow would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %


Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here!

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Appelsoep
Profile Joined September 2014
Belarus18 Posts
September 18 2014 17:09 GMT
#586
On September 18 2014 22:17 AWalker9 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2014 22:13 Appelsoep wrote:
Zest will win, he is just too solid in any part of the game ( you should watch his gsl match vs life, amazing).


Zest has never played Life in GSL


Oops i meant soO ofcourse
Like a baws
Torrefy
Profile Joined August 2014
41 Posts
September 18 2014 18:48 GMT
#587
Aligulac must really love Yoda. It's giving him the highest percentage chance to win wcs eu AND dreamhack. Higher than herO, soO, Polt, MMA, Hyun, etc.
TL+ Member
Jett.Jack.Alvir
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Canada2250 Posts
September 18 2014 19:23 GMT
#588
Interesting, the Dreamhack adjustment puts Snute at a more realistic chances of making it to Blizzcon.
jonich0n
Profile Joined February 2009
United States1982 Posts
September 18 2014 23:52 GMT
#589
Top 8 for Snute at DH should give him an amazing chance to make Blizzcon. Even Top 16 could do it but that's probably dependent on soO tripping up in GSL and this tournament.
(>'.')>
KillerDucky
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States498 Posts
September 19 2014 02:03 GMT
#590
Making a spreadsheet here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne_2M3n4v2Ps9tEzKYHtd8Erw7OI9tC0lsG_XdcxVfM/pubhtml
MarineKingPrime Forever!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
September 19 2014 02:16 GMT
#591
On September 19 2014 11:03 KillerDucky wrote:
Making a spreadsheet here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne_2M3n4v2Ps9tEzKYHtd8Erw7OI9tC0lsG_XdcxVfM/pubhtml

Wow why didn't I think of formating it like that? Thanks for the idea, I'll have to steal it for the tournament pages on the 2015 version, and could also do it similar on the player pages, or maybe even this year. Anyways, I love it, thanks.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
KillerDucky
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States498 Posts
September 19 2014 02:31 GMT
#592
On September 19 2014 11:16 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2014 11:03 KillerDucky wrote:
Making a spreadsheet here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne_2M3n4v2Ps9tEzKYHtd8Erw7OI9tC0lsG_XdcxVfM/pubhtml

Wow why didn't I think of formating it like that? Thanks for the idea, I'll have to steal it for the tournament pages on the 2015 version, and could also do it similar on the player pages, or maybe even this year. Anyways, I love it, thanks.


Please feel free to steal. Also put an imgur link on reddit here http://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/2gto7p/wcs_blizzcon_chances_in_spreadsheet_form/

MarineKingPrime Forever!
ssxsilver
Profile Joined June 2007
United States4409 Posts
September 19 2014 05:04 GMT
#593
Damn top 16 is pretty difficult with this player pool. Snute basically has to hope for some insane bracket luck.
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
September 19 2014 10:32 GMT
#594
On September 19 2014 11:03 KillerDucky wrote:
Making a spreadsheet here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ne_2M3n4v2Ps9tEzKYHtd8Erw7OI9tC0lsG_XdcxVfM/pubhtml


Man this is ultimately awesome!
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
SuperHofmann
Profile Joined September 2013
Italy1741 Posts
September 19 2014 10:40 GMT
#595
soO deserves the BlizzCon more than anyone. No way.
Vasacast always in my <3
coloursheep
Profile Joined May 2011
China497 Posts
September 19 2014 11:02 GMT
#596
On September 19 2014 19:40 SuperHofmann wrote:
soO deserves the BlizzCon more than anyone. No way.


I would not say more than anyone but with Jaedong and particularly Snute doing basically nothing all year just attending so many events picking up round of 8/16 points it would be pretty tragic to see them qualify over him
Yonnua
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United Kingdom2331 Posts
September 19 2014 12:34 GMT
#597
On September 19 2014 20:02 coloursheep wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2014 19:40 SuperHofmann wrote:
soO deserves the BlizzCon more than anyone. No way.


I would not say more than anyone but with Jaedong and particularly Snute doing basically nothing all year just attending so many events picking up round of 8/16 points it would be pretty tragic to see them qualify over him


He's been in every Ro4 for the most difficult region all year, if he wins in the semis he's been in every final. I'd say he almost certainly deserves it more than anyone else.
LRSL 2014 Finalist! PartinG | Mvp | Bomber | Creator | NaNiwa | herO
coloursheep
Profile Joined May 2011
China497 Posts
September 19 2014 13:19 GMT
#598
On September 19 2014 21:34 Yonnua wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2014 20:02 coloursheep wrote:
On September 19 2014 19:40 SuperHofmann wrote:
soO deserves the BlizzCon more than anyone. No way.


I would not say more than anyone but with Jaedong and particularly Snute doing basically nothing all year just attending so many events picking up round of 8/16 points it would be pretty tragic to see them qualify over him


He's been in every Ro4 for the most difficult region all year, if he wins in the semis he's been in every final. I'd say he almost certainly deserves it more than anyone else.


Consistency is great however at a certain point if he cannot get it done and win a major event that is a problem
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
September 19 2014 13:54 GMT
#599
+ Show Spoiler [GSL spoiler] +
Stats and Rain are out of the running!
"Expert" mods4ever.com
movac
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada494 Posts
September 19 2014 16:03 GMT
#600
On September 17 2014 00:34 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2014 00:32 Dingodile wrote:
I still dont understand why Scarlett, Cure and DRG get some points automatically. What happened?

It's because the tournaments they won to qualify did not give WCS points. If you get WCS points and a seed to get more WCS points then it's double dipping, it would basically be a cheap trick to have your tournament give more WCS points than Blizzard allows, so they have these rules in place. It would be pretty dumb if you won a tournament to get 750 WCS points, and then get seeded to automatically get at least 250 more lol.


Well... then Parting and sOs didn't get WCS points either for RBBG:NY, but that is from last year. who knows what kind of agreement Red Bull and Blizzard came out with.
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