WCS Predictor 2014 - Page 50

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Darkdwarf

Sweden960 Posts

October 15 2014 21:01 GMT

#981

On October 16 2014 05:07 Die4Ever wrote:
Life will be the next retrospective!

Looking forward to it. These retrospectives are amazing!

Die4Ever

United States17683 Posts

October 16 2014 03:56 GMT

#982

Life

This was actually a weak year for Life compared to how he was doing before. He "only" got 1 premier tournament win this year in DreamHack Bucharest, while he got 3 last year (IEM New York, MLG Winter, Iron Squid 2), and 3 at the end of 2012 (GSL Blizzard Cup, MLG Fall, GSL Season 4). With only 50 more WCS Points than the #16 seed, Jaedong, and 325 more points than #17, Snute, he barely was able to qualify for the WCS Global Finals as the #14 seed. Too bad that puts him against Zest, probably the worst draw he could've gotten out of any of the players going to Blizzcon, and I think he agrees.

Chances January [image loading]

(No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)

Life is our first player that didn't need to play in the WCS Qualifiers this year, because he won his Challenger League bracket last year he was already qualified for season 1 of Code A. This allowed him to start with a bit higher chances than the others with ~ 27.3 %, while Snute started with ~ 19.7 %, and Zest with ~ 2.4 %.
Life started his WCS year on January 22nd, advancing from his Code A group by beating Paralyze, losing to Squirtle, and then beating Paralyze again, moving up to ~ 36 % Blizzcon Chances.

On January 31st, Life played in the group stages of ASUS ROG Winter, losing to Welmu, but then beating Kane, Solar, and Jaedong to advance for the playoffs (played February 1st). This brought his chances up to ~ 42.4 %.

Chances February [image loading]

WCS Points February [image loading]

On February 1st he played in the quarterfinals of ASUS ROG against his brutal nemesis San and lost 0-3, bringing his chances down to ~ 31.3 %. Maybe Zest is a better draw for Life than San, with his 10-0 record over Life, would've been?

On February 26th, in his Code S round of 32 group, he beat Yonghwa and Dark, and I also added the full year of WCS Simulations, putting Life at ~ 35.3 %, and a minimum of 500 WCS Points, and a median of 1400 WCS Points.

Chances March [image loading]

WCS Points March [image loading]

On March 5th, Life continued his strong Code S run by advancing from his round of 16 group, beating Roro, losing to sOs, and then beating Roro again, going up to ~ 50 % chances.

Life then went to the IEM World Championship on March 15th. He beat Rogue in the round of 16 3-1, and then lost to Taeja 1-3 in the quarterfinals, putting him at ~ 67.6 %.

March 21st Life beat Maru in the GSL quarterfinals 3-2, bringing him up to ~ 82.6 %.
Then on the 28th he lost to soO in the semifinals 3-4, going down to ~ 57.5 %, with a minimum WCS Points of 1550, and a median of 2050.

Chances April [image loading]

WCS Points April [image loading]

In April, Life only had Dreamhack Bucharest to play in.
On the 26th he advanced to the playoffs beating MoonBeam, Harstem, and Lilbow twice, losing only to Ryung, putting him at ~ 68.4 %.
On the 27th he beat Leenock in the round of 16 2-1, and StarDust in the quarterfinals 2-1, going up to ~ 83.2 %.
In the semifinals he beat Innovation 2-1, and in the finals he beat Impact 3-0, ending up at ~ 97.6 %, 2300 minimum WCS Points, and a median of 3075 WCS Points.

Chances May [image loading]

WCS Points May [image loading]

In May, Life only played in his GSL Code S round of 32 group, beating Rogue and Classic on the 9th, going up to ~ 98.9 %.

Chances June [image loading]

WCS Points June [image loading]

June 4th, Life lost his ro16 Code S group. In season 1 of Code A, he beat Paralyze twice to knock him out and take the Code S spot for himself, this time Paralyze got revenge beating him, then Life beat Rain, and then Paralyze beat Life again. This put Life at ~ 90 %, with a minimum WCS Points of ~ 90 %.
june 4 code s ro16 lost to paralyze, beat rain, lost to paralyze ~ 90 %, min points 2500, median 2875

June 20th to the 22nd was MLG Anaheim, where Life played in the open bracket.
On the 20th he beat Thorzain, and lost to DongRaeGu, ending up at ~ 86.8 %.
On the 21st he played in the losers' bracket, beatting Apocalypse, Choya, and Alicia, to go up to ~ 95.7 %.
On the 22nd he beat Illusion and Major, but then lost to Scarlett, ending up at ~ 93.3 % Blizzcon Chances, with 2625 minimum WCS Points and a 2900 median.

Chances July [image loading]

WCS Points July [image loading]

On July 7th I added Red Bull Atlanta, IEM Shenzhen, Gfinity G3, and the DreamHack Valencia player list, bringing Life down to ~ 80.74 %.

July 16th and 17th was IEM Shenzhen for Life.
On the 16th, in the open bracket, he beat Daisy, lost to Liquid HerO, and then beat Daisy again, ending at ~ 90.4 %.
The 17th was Life's ro16 group, where he lost to Jim, beat MMA, and then lost to Taeja, going down to ~ 83.9 %.

In Life's GSL Code A group for Season 3, he lost to Stats and Bunny on the 24th, ending up at ~ 74.6 % chances, a minimum WCS Points of 2750, and a median also at 2750.

Chances August [image loading]

WCS Points August [image loading]

At the end of August, Life had a good run at IEM Toronto from the 28th to the 31st.
Starting on the 28th in the "Dual Tournament" aka open bracket, Life beat Stardust, Revival, and Snute, going up to ~ 85.2 %.
On the 29th in his ro16 group, he beat Scarlett and then MC to go up to ~ 95.4 %.
Then he beat First in the quarterfinals with a 3-0 score to go up to ~ 99.4 %.
On the 31st he lost to Zest 1-3 in the semifinals, ending up at ~ 99 %, with a minimum of 3125 WCS Points. Was this match a preview of what is to come in the WCS Global Finals?

Chances September [image loading]

WCS Points September [image loading]

In September, Life had his last chance to earn WCS Points, DreamHack Stockholm. If he didn't get any points here then he would've ended up as #17, missing out on the Global Finals by 1 spot. DreamHack Stockholm was also an exceptionally hard DreamHack due to many players trying to get their last WCS Points in.
On the 26th Life beat Oz, lost to MMA, and beat Oz again in Group Stage 3 to advance to the playoffs, putting him at ~ 99.4 %, and setting his minimum WCS Points to the final value of 3250.
Then on the 27th he lost to CJ herO putting him at ~ 95.8 %. With no more chances to earn WCS Points, Life would have to leave his qualification in other players' hands. Luckily for Life, he wouldn't have to stress for long, thanks to Solar.

Later that same day, Solar was facing Jaedong in the round of 8. Here is what WCS Predictor said about this match for Life.
~ 48.45 % of the time
Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8
This would change Life's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 100 %

~ 51.55 % of the time
Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8
This would change Life's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 91.91 %

And Solar did win, 2-1 over Jaedong, and even went on to beat soO in the finals. If Jaedong had won this match then Life would've had to worry about players like Scarlett, ForGG, Pigbaby, HerO, and Bunny in WCS EU and AM. As an example -
~ 0.55 % of the time
Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and
ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and
Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8
This would change Life's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 95.82 % to ~ 0 %

Of course we know now he would've qualified no matter what Jaedong had done, since the players that would've threatened him didn't win anyways.

Come back tomorrow for the next retrospective!

Here are the chances and WCS Points graphs in super-wide form for the full year.
Super Wide Overall Chances Graph http://i.imgur.com/wRvKw5d.png
Super Wide Overall WCS Points Graph http://i.imgur.com/1j4pXeq.png
And here's Life's page where you can zoom the graphs as you please http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=3

pure.Wasted

Canada4701 Posts

October 16 2014 04:48 GMT

#983

Loving these, keep up the great work!

On October 15 2014 12:21 Die4Ever wrote:
He was actually over 99% for more than half the year. He has 5,800 WCS Points, by far the most WCS Points of any GSL player, with soO in 2nd place (lol) down by 2,150 WCS Points.

Hahaha, I hadn't even noticed that soO was second. Oh god.

Die4Ever

United States17683 Posts

October 16 2014 15:31 GMT

#984

And the 4th retrospective in the series will be.... jjakji!

Die4Ever

United States17683 Posts

October 17 2014 03:12 GMT

#985

jjakji

jjakji, the #11 seed, with 3475 WCS Points. Wait what? I've actually seen people wondering how he got so many WCS Points, and even I wasn't sure where he got them all. Before we go into the full retrospective, let's see where he got his points from.
(sorted by points)
750 WCS EU Season 1
500 DreamHack Moscow
400 IEM World Championship

375 IEM Sao Paulo
250 IEM Cologne
250 HomeStoryCup 9
250 Gfinity G3

125 DreamHack Bucharest
125 DreamHack Summer
125 IEM Shenzhen
125 DreamHack Stockholm
100 WCS EU Season 2
100 WCS EU Season 3

Good thing he went to so many tournaments, it all adds up, 550 points less and it would've been Snute qualifying instead of jjakji.

Chances January [image loading]

January 4th jjakji qualified for WCS EU on first try, beating Exehn, Markus, Monty, RusZerg, SortOf, losing to Grubby, beating BabyKnight, to start off the year high at ~ 69.5 %.

jjakji played in IEM Sao Paulo from the 30th to February 1st.
On the 30th in the round of 16 he beat WM, lost to Bomber, and beat puCK, going up to ~ 74.4 % Blizzcon Chances.
On the 31st in the quarterfinals he beat Polt 3-0, going up to ~ 84.8 %.
February 1st he lost to MC 1-3 in the semifinals, ending his run with a still strong ~ 73.2 % Blizzcon Chances. Let's count how many times jjakji loses to MC in this retrospective, that's once.

Chances February [image loading]

WCS Points February [image loading]

February 6th, jjakji started his strongest WCS EU season by far this year, beating HappyZerG 3-0 in Challenger, although his Blizzcon Chances actually went down to ~ 69.8 % because of the IEM Cologne player list. His minimum WCS Points is now at 475.

In IEM Cologne, jjakji advanced from his round of 16 group, beating Dear, losing to Patience, and then beating Dear again. The in the quarterfinals he lost to Rain 1-3, ending up at ~ 88.4 % chances on February 16th, and a minimum WCS Points of 725.

In WCS EU Premier league, jjakji won his round of 32 group on the 20th, beating LiveZerg and Nerchio, going up to ~ 99.4 % chaces, and a minimum of 825 WCS Points.

On February 26th I added full year of WCS to the simulation, putting jjakji at ~ 76.2 %, a minimum of 975 WCS Points, and a median of 2275.

Chances March [image loading]

WCS Points March [image loading]

In the IEM World Championships, on March 14th, jjakji beat Revival 3-2 in the round of 16 with a crazy comeback win. Maybe this will jog your memory.
[image loading]

This put jjakji at ~ 92.2 %.
On March 15th jjakji lost in the quarterfinals to sOs 0-3, putting him at ~ 86.6 %, with a minimum of 1375 WCS Points, and a median of 2575.

On March 26th jjakji continued his best run in WCS EU, beating Grubby, losing to Snute, and then beating Dayshi in his round of 16 group, going up to ~ 91.5 % Blizzcon Chances, and a minimum WCS Points of 1675, and a median of 2725.

Chances April [image loading]

WCS Points April [image loading]

On April 6th I added the GSL Global Championship and 5 DreamHacks, putting jjakji at ~ 86.1 %.

On April 10th in WCS EU, jjakji beat Vortix in the quarterfinals 3-0, going up to ~ 96.1 %.
On April 12th, he lost to MC (2nd time) 1-3 in the semifinals, ending at ~ 90.4 %, a minimum WCS Points of 1925, and a median of 2800.

On April 15th I added Copenhagen Games Spring and the 5 Placeholder tournaments, bringing his chances to ~ 89.1 %.

In DreamHack Bucharest on April 26th, jjakji advanced to the playoffs after beating DaZe, TLO, then losing to uThermal, beating Serral, and then beating uThermal for revenge. This put jjakji at ~ 95.5 %.
The next day, jjakji lost in the round of 16 to StarDust 1-2, putting him at ~ 91.5 %, 2050 minimum WCS Points, and 2975 median WCS Points.

Chances May [image loading]

WCS Points May [image loading]

In May, jjakji lost a ton of chances, first losing on the 20th in his WCS EU round of 32 group against Harstem and Yoda, going down to ~ 72.1 %, then because of the addition of the KeSPA Cup on the 23rd which he just missed out on due to his loss, putting him down to ~ 64.4 %. Going from the ~ 91.5 % we saw earlier, that's a loss of 27.1 %.
May wasn't all bad for him though. With the addition of the HomeStory Cup 9 and DreaHack Summer player lists he went back up to ~ 83.5 %, with a minimum of 2050 WCS Points and a median of 3000.

Chances June [image loading]

WCS Points June [image loading]

HomeStory Cup 9 started on June 5th, where jjakji won his round of 32 group over HeRoMaRinE and TargA, going up to ~ 84.9 %.
On the 7th he won his round of 16 group over MaNa and Armani, going up to ~ 91.2 %.
And on the 8th he lost in the quarterfinals to MC (3rd time) 0-3 this time, putting him at ~ 87.1 %, aminimum WCS Points of 2300, and a median of 2950.

On June 14th and 15th in DreamHack Summer, jjakji advanced to the playoffs after beating Avokado, MarineLorD, Dayshi, and Snute, putting him at ~ 84.7 %.
On the 15th he lost in the round of 16 to MaNa 0-2, finishing at ~ 81.9 %, a minimum WCS Points of 2425, and a median of 2875.

Chances July [image loading]

WCS Points July [image loading]

On July 16th in IEM Shenzhen, jjakji played in the open bracket, beating Vaisravana, Check, and TRUE, going up to ~ 94.9 %.
On the 17th in the round of 16 group he lost to Zest, beat Illusion, and then lost to San, going down to ~ 89.8 % chances.

July 29th, he beat HeRoMaRinE 3-0 to get back into WCS EU Premier, going up to ~ 95.2 %, with a minimum WCS Points of 2600, and a median of 3400.

Chances August [image loading]

WCS Points August [image loading]

On August 2nd in Gfinity G3, in the round of 12 group he lost to Snute and beat Grubby, which was enough to advance from the 3 player group.
Then on the 3rd he lost in the quarterfinals to MC (4th time) 1-2, putting him at ~ 96.5 %, with a minimum of 2850 WCS Points, and a median of 3250.

Chances September [image loading]

WCS Points September [image loading]

On September 3rd, jjakji lost his WCS EU round of 32 group to Harstem and Vortix, leaving him with only 2 DreamHacks to get points from. This put him at ~ 72.6 %, with a minimum of 2850 WCS Points, and a median at the same 2850 points, which would've been 75 points short of making it to the WCS Global Finals.

On the 11th, jjakji's chances went down a bit as Classic and sOs won their matches. If both Classic and sOs had both qualified for Blizzcon then jjakji could've been knocked out considering he only had 2850 WCS Points at the time.

sep 13-14 dh moscow
On the 13th jjakji advanced to the DreamHack Moscow playoffs beating Rose, KpeHgeJlb, Revolver, and MMA 2-1, going up to ~ 91.9 %, and a minimum of 2975 WCS Points, which we know now would've been 50 more points than Snute and thus enough to qualify for Blizzcon.
On the 14th he beat First 2-0 in the round of 16, in the quarterfinals he beat Happy 2-1, in the semifinals he beat TRUE 2-0, and then in the finals he lost to MMA 1-3 for a 2nd place. This put him at ~ 99.99 %, with a minimum of 3350 WCS Points, enough for the #12 seed, and a median of 3475 points which is actually where he ended up.

In DreamHack Stockholm, jjakji was pretty much just playing for money and bonus points for seeding, already being at ~ 99.99 %.
On the 26th he advanced to the playoffs beating Autumn, YoDa, SpaceMarine, and Snute.
The on the 27th he lost in the round of 16 to Patience 0-2, enough to get an extra 125 WCS Points, securing him ~ 100 % chances, and his final WCS Points of 3465.

So we see that jjakji made his run to Blizzcon not with a spectacular championship, but with consistency and lots of plane tickets. It wasn't the most comfortable qualification, dropping below 70% in January, February, May, and September, but he made it.

Come back tomorrow for the next retrospective!

Here are the chances and WCS Points graphs in super-wide form for the full year.
Super Wide Overall Chances Graph http://i.imgur.com/xR7qb2i.png
Super Wide Overall WCS Points Graph http://i.imgur.com/WpQ5j5Q.png
And here's jjakji's page where you can zoom the graphs as you please http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=29

Die4Ever

United States17683 Posts

October 17 2014 15:54 GMT

#986

The next retrospective will be.... INnoVation! Look forward to it tonight!

Die4Ever

United States17683 Posts

October 18 2014 03:29 GMT

#987

INnoVation

INnoVation, the once best Terran in the world, didn't show as much consistency throughout the year as our other players, but instead he had a strong peak at the end.
In fact he spent most of the year below 30% chances, he didn't even make it above 40% once until the end of September when he beat Cure in the GSL semifinals. But now could he be making a comeback to become the best Terran in the world again? There are many strong Terrans to contend with for that title at Blizzcon, but first let's see how he got there.

Chances January [image loading]

(No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)

Because INnoVation was already seeded into Code A from last year, he started off around 30 % Blizzcon Chances. However that would change as he played in an incredibly hard Code A group.
On January 22nd, INnoVation lost to herO and Zest, advancing in last place. This brought him from ~ 29.4 % down to ~ 1.1 %, keep in mind this was before I had the full year of WCS simulations in though.

Chances February [image loading]

WCS Points February [image loading]

(The blue line is minimum WCS Points, the black line is the median.)

In February he went to IEM Cologne, hopefully making up for his loss in Code A.
On the 15th he beat HeRoMaRinE and MC in the ro16 groups. Then on the 16th he lost to Liquid HerO 0-3 in quarterfinals, bringing INnoVation down to ~ 0 % with just counting the first season.

On the 26th I added full year of WCS simulations, bringing INnoVation up to ~ 8.3 %. Considering he wasn't qualified for GSL at all this seems like a fair starting point.

Chances March [image loading]

WCS Points March [image loading]

In the GSL qualifiers on March 26th, he beat Bulldozer, lost to ByuL, and beat Sorry to qualify for GSL, going up to ~ 9.4 %, with a minimum WCS Points of 350, and a median of 650.

Chances April [image loading]

WCS Points April [image loading]

On April 6th I added the GSL Global Championship and 5 DreamHacks, bringing INoVation up to ~ 11.2 %.

On the 9th in Code A, he beat Dark and Sora, going up to ~ 16.3 %, 450 minimum WCS Points, and a median of 1100.

INnoVation finished April with DreamHack Bucharest.
He advanced to the bracket stage on the 26th after beating Ancestor, MorroW, HuK, and Snute, putting him at ~ 20.1 %.
On the 27th he beat Welmu in the round of 16 and Bunny in quarterfinals, going up to ~ 25.4 %.
Then he lost to Life in the semifinals, going down to ~ 20 %, a minimum of 825 WCS Points, and a median 1525.

Chances May [image loading]

WCS Points May [image loading]

May 23rd, Innovation won his Code S round of 32 group, first losing to herO, then beating Squirtle and Leenock, going up to ~ 29.5 %.

Chances June [image loading]

WCS Points June [image loading]

On June 6th INnoVation lost in a tough Code S round of 16 group, losing to Zest again, beating Shine, then losing to Soulkey, going way down to ~ 13.37 %, with a minimum of 1025 WCS Points, and a median of 1475.

Chances July [image loading]

WCS Points July [image loading]

July 17th in the IEM Shenzhen round of 16, INnoVation won his group beating TRUE and Snute.
Then on the 19th he lost in the quarterfinals to Solar 0-3, going down to ~ 10.2 %, with a minimum of 1275 WCS Points, and a median of 1625.

Now all INnoVation had left was the last season of GSL. From this point in time it was expected that a 2nd place in Code S would only put him at ~ 15.6 % Blizzcon Chances, while a 1st place would put him at ~ 99.8 %. He really needed to win the whole thing.
With only 1275 WCS Points before his Code A match on July 23rd, he was way behind. For comparison, on July 22nd, Zest had 3150 WCS Points, Jaedong had 2550, Snute had 1625, and sOs had 2300.

On July 23rd in Code A, INnoVation beats Hurricane and Ruin to advance from his group 4-0, going up to ~ 12.7 %.

Chances August [image loading]

WCS Points August [image loading]

Now in Code S, on August 7th he advanced from his round of 32 group, losing to Myungsik, then beating Paralyze and Myungsik, going up to ~ 17.7 %, with a minimum of 1425 WCS Points, and a median of 1975.

Chances September [image loading]

WCS Points September [image loading]

In September is where INnoVation really turned it on.
First in his Code S round of 16 group on September 3rd, beating Stats and Parting, going up to ~ 18.8 %, 1725 minimum points, 1975 median points.
On the 17th in the quarterfinals, he beat DongRaeGu 3-0, continuing his rise to ~ 29.2 %, 1975 minimum points, and 2225 median points.
Then in the semifinals on the 26th beating Cure 4-3, going up to ~ 58 %, 2225 minimum points, and 3225 median.

If INoVation would've lost the finals against soO, he'd have gone down to 0% Blizzcon Chances.
On Oct 4th, INnoVation finally won a GSL, beating soO 4-2, and going up to ~ 92.1 %, with his final 3225 WCS Points.

Now if Bunny/ForGG wins WCS EU AND HerO/Pigbaby/Scarlett wins WCS AM, then Innovation is out. If Jaedong had beaten Solar at Dreamhack Stockholm, then any 1 of those players winning would've knocked Innovation out.

Shortly after INnoVation won the GSL, he was secured his place when both Bunny and ForGG lost in the WCS EU quarterfinals. And with that, INnoVation was the 2nd to last player to secure his spot in the WCS Global Finals, with the last player being Jaedong. INnoVation is the #15 seed, and will be facing the #2 seed HyuN in a best of 5 in the first round of the WCS Global Finals. Can INnoVation prove himself to be the best Terran in the world, or will he lose in the first round like last year?

Come back tomorrow for the next retrospective!

Here are the chances and WCS Points graphs in super-wide form for the full year.
Super Wide Overall Chances Graph http://i.imgur.com/yYy9iM1.png
Super Wide Overall WCS Points Graph http://i.imgur.com/SbGhwY8.png
And here's INnoVation's page where you can zoom the graphs as you please http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48

movac

Canada494 Posts

October 20 2014 15:06 GMT

#988

Innovation making it into blizzcon last minute is like what Dear pulled last year, but not as incredible since Dear had to win both WCS KR and the Season Final.

That jjakji giff is priceless. Although many would consider him the weakest player out of the 16, that game vs Revival was quite memorable.

andrewlt

United States7702 Posts

October 20 2014 15:18 GMT

#989

jjakji's road to Blizzcon is why he's highly rated in aligulac. He pretty much won EU qualifier after EU qualifier for all sorts of IEMs, Dreamhacks and other smaller tournaments. Even advancing 2nd in a 2 Korean, 2 foreigner group stage would already secure him WCS 125-250 points depending on the tournament's tier. The qualifier run would give him WCS points and a higher aligulac rating even if he does nothing of note in the actual tournament itself.

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