WCS Predictor 2014 - Page 49

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The_Templar

your Country52798 Posts

October 13 2014 01:34 GMT

#961

Good, now Heart wins

tomastaz

United States976 Posts

October 13 2014 01:42 GMT

#962

All of a sudden, I need Heart to win this. Jaedong is so screwed otherwise.

cpower

228 Posts

October 13 2014 01:43 GMT

#963

On October 13 2014 10:34 The_Templar wrote:
Good, now Heart wins

bomber 4:0 heart

brickrd

United States4894 Posts

October 13 2014 01:56 GMT

#964

On October 12 2014 16:07 Gwavajuice wrote:

Show nested quote +

Any estimation comes with an uncertainity, which is usually represented by a confidence interval.

The list doens't give those but, in all likelyhood, they are more than big enough to make the difference between Jjakji and Zest totally irrelevant.

If you wanted to rank players you would have to perform a proper statistical test of the hypothesis %win(jjakji) > %win(Zest) and I would be surprised that this test could let you conclude with a proper probability value.

Estimating is one thing, comparing is another that requires much more precision.

TL;DR : There is no problem with Aligulac, there only a problem with comparing an estimate of 7.76% with and an estimate of 7.67% : it's just not relevant.

i will never understand how people miss the point of prediction models and treat them as if every mistake or projection they disagree with is "proof" that there's a "problem"

if it were possible to create a perfect projection model it wouldn't be projection

Thrillz

4313 Posts

October 13 2014 03:18 GMT

#965

We have our bracket!

Die4Ever

United States17744 Posts

October 13 2014 03:19 GMT

#966

On October 13 2014 12:18 Thrillz wrote:
We have our bracket!

#1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 MC vs #12 herO
#4 Polt vs #13 Classic

#6 San vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation

Jett.Jack.Alvir

Canada2250 Posts

October 13 2014 04:41 GMT

#967

JD is fucked.

The_Templar

your Country52798 Posts

October 13 2014 04:43 GMT

#968

On October 13 2014 13:41 Jett.Jack.Alvir wrote:
JD is fucked.

He was in bad shape anyway, but at least in JvZ he had a chance.

pure.Wasted

Canada4701 Posts

October 13 2014 06:36 GMT

#969

On October 13 2014 12:19 Die4Ever wrote:

Show nested quote +

#1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong
#8 StarDust vs #9 MMA
#5 MC vs #12 herO
#4 Polt vs #13 Classic

#6 San vs #11 jjakji
#3 Zest vs #14 Life
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO
#2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation

Am I correct in thinking that the finals will be one player from top half vs one player from bottom half?

Koerage

Netherlands1220 Posts

October 13 2014 06:52 GMT

#970

On October 13 2014 15:36 pure.Wasted wrote:

Show nested quote +

Am I correct in thinking that the finals will be one player from top half vs one player from bottom half?

im pretty sure that's so, iirc that's how the brackets worked last year and i didnt hear anything about the brackets being changed.
Hyun-Inno and Taeja-soO should be great matches, the rest could very well be stomps

pure.Wasted

Canada4701 Posts

October 13 2014 07:36 GMT

#971

On October 13 2014 15:52 Koerage wrote:

Show nested quote +

Oh god that would be so shitty. The bottom bracket is so much more disproportionately stacked with talent. Innovation, Taeja, Zest, soO? I love Bomber and Polt as much as the next guy, but Christ...

Die4Ever

United States17744 Posts

October 14 2014 01:53 GMT

#972

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Oct 14 1:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) Player Retrospectives!
Now that the top 16 is set, it's time to look back and see how the top 16 players made it, and where a few players failed. I will be doing 1 or 2 retrospective analysis each day, with a very in depth look at each player individually and their journey through the year, in no particular order.

October 13 - Snute http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23115880
October 14 - Zest http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23122993
October 15 - Life http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23128874
October 16 - jjakji http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23133647
October 17 - INnoVation http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23138552

And more....

-----------------------

Die4Ever

United States17744 Posts

October 14 2014 04:25 GMT

#973

Snute

This is the first of a series of retrospectives I will be doing for individual players for their whole year of WCS 2014.
Snute had a rough road through the WCS system and he almost made it a few times, this is probably the most complex retrospective out of anyone. Let's break it down by month.

Chances January [image loading]

(No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)

The first thing in January for Snute was the WCS EU qualifiers, and this did not go as smoothly for him as you would've expected.
In Europe Qualifier #1, Snute lost in the round of 32 2-1 to Goody, in Qualifier #2 he lost in the round of 16 2-1 to Harstem, and then in Qualifier #3 he lost to Romson in the round of 128 (this may have been a walkover, ESL doesn't show a score). During this time (Jan 6th-14th) Snute's Blizzcon Chances went from ~ 19.7 % down to ~ 11.1 %.
Snute then had to rely on the Ladder Wildcard Qualifier to make it, his last chance for the season, and he beat Verdi 2-1 in the final match to qualify. This (Jan 15th) brought his chances up to ~ 14.8 %.

Next for Snute was ASUS ROG Winter. In his round of 32 group he beat Harstem, lost to Dear, and then beat Harstem again to advance from the group, (Jan 31st) bringing his chances up to ~ 17.5 %.
In his round of 16 group he lost to ForGG, beat SortOf, and lost to San, (Jan 31st) bringing his chances down to ~ 11.4 %.

Chances February [image loading]

WCS Points February [image loading]

On February 5th he won his WCS Challenger match against uThermal 3-1, going up to ~ 13 %.
February 26th I added the full year of the WCS regionals to the simulation, bringing Snute's chances down slightly to ~ 12.4 %.

Chances March [image loading]

WCS Points March [image loading]

In March Snute played in WCS EU Premier Season 1. March 4th, he won his round of 32 group, beating HasuObs, losing to Mvp, then beating HasuObs again, bringing his chances up to ~ 20 %.
He continued through Premier League by topping his round of 16 group, beating Dayshi and jjakji, (March 26th) to bring his chances up to ~ 28.9 %.

Chances April [image loading]

WCS Points April [image loading]

Snute was busier in April, playing in 3 different tournaments.

April 11th he lost 3-1 to MMA in the WCS EU Quarterfinals, bringing his chances from ~ 24 % down to ~ 14 %.

On April 15th I added Copenhagen Games Spring and the 5 Placeholder tournaments, bringing his chances up to ~ 19.3 %.
April 18th he lost in Copenhagen Games in the round of 16 to Patience twice, beating Strintern in between, bringing his chances down to ~ 15.9%.

Then it was off to DreamHack Bucharest for him, where he advanced to the playoffs April 26th to bring his chances up to ~ 21 %.
On April 27th he beat HyuN in the ro16, going up to ~ 26.1 %, and then lost to Jaedong to go down to ~ 22 %, ending his DreamHack run in the quarterfinals.

Chances May [image loading]

WCS Points May [image loading]

May 15th Snute won his ro32 group in WCS EU Premier Season 2, beating Krr and Bling, to go from ~ 28.5 % up to ~ 33.5 % chances. Now he's at a minimum of 1250 WCS Points, and a median of 2000 WCS Points.

May 29th I added the player list for HomeStoryCup 9, bringing him up to ~ 33.4 %, and a median of 2300 WCS Points.
May 30th I added the DreamHack Summer player list, again bringing him up to ~ 51 %, and a median of 2500 WCS Points.

Chances June [image loading]

WCS Points June [image loading]

June was a tough month for Snute, going from ~ 52.5 % down to ~ 10.2 % over the course of the month.

Starting with HomeStoryCup, Snute beats White-Ra and Stork in his ro32 group (June 5th) going up to ~ 54.7 %. Then in his ro16 group he beats Taeja, only to lose to MMA and the rematch to Taeja, (June 7th) getting knocked down to ~ 39.1 %.

In WCS EU Premier, Snute loses his ro16 group to ForGG and Harstem, (June 9th) going down to ~ 30 %.

Then he takes a surprisingly large blow as San and StarDust secure their spots in WCS EU Premier Season 3, with Snute's median WCS Points dropping from 2075 down to 1875, (June 11th) going down to ~ 16.8 %.

His bad luck streak continues in DreamHack Summer as he loses his ro32 group to jjakji and HerO, (June 15th) going down to ~ 15.9 %, with his minimum still WCS Points at 1250 since May 15th.

Chances July [image loading]

July 7th I added Red Bull Atlanta, IEM Shenzhen, Gfinity G3, and the DreamHack Valencia player list, bringing Snute's chances up to ~ 23.9 %.

In IEM Shenzhen he won his ro16 group by beating Stork and TRUE, but losing to Innovation. (July 17th) This brought his chances up to ~ 27.9 %.
Then he lost in the quarterfinals to Jaedong 3-2, bringing him down to ~ 22.5 %, with a new minimum WCS Points of 1625, and a median of 2325.

Chances August [image loading]

WCS Points August [image loading]

August was Snute's busiest month with Gfinity, WCS EU, Red Bull Detroit, and IEM Toronto.

In Gfinity he beat Grubby and jjakji in the ro12 group, and then MMA 2-1 in the quarterfinals, (Aug 3rd) to bring his chances up to ~ 25.2 %. But then he lost to his teammate Bunny in the semifinals 3-1, sending Snute back down to ~ 23.9 %.

August 19th, Snute lost his WCS EU Premier Season 3 round of 32 group, first beating Patience but then losing to Miniraser and StarDust, sending his chances down to ~ 17.9 %.

In Red Bull Detroit on August 23rd, Snute beat CatZ in the ro16 to go up to ~ 26.1 %, and then lost to StarDust in the quarterfinals, putting him at ~ 12 %.

August 29th was the IEM Toronto Open Bracket, where Snute beat herO, lost to Life, and then beat herO again, together for a 4-2 score over herO in those insanely grueling games, bringing Snute to ~ 18.5 %.
Then Snute continued to impress in his ro16 group where he beat Masa and then sOs, going up to ~ 28.6 % now.
Against Flash in the quarterfinals, on August 30th, Snute put up a great fight but lost 2-3 during Flash's hottest streak yet in SC2, going down to ~ 14.7 %.

Snute finishes August with a minimum of 2550 WCS Points, and a median of 2550 WCS Points.

Chances September [image loading]

WCS Points September [image loading]

On September 1st, the DreamHack Moscow player list is set, with Snute confirmed it brings him up to ~ 37.6 %, and a median of 2675 WCS Points.
September 13th in DreamHack Moscow ro32 group, he beats MindelVK and HyuN to advance to the playoffs and go up to ~ 41 %.
September 14th, he beats LiveZerg in the ro16 and Daisy in the quarterfinals to go up to ~ 67.3 %. But then loses to eventual champion MMA, going down to ~ 47.2 %.

At this point, Snute is at a minimum of 2925 WCS Points, and a median of 3050, however he does not manage to win any more points for the rest of this year.

September 14th, Red Bull still has not yet announced anything regarding WCS Points for Washington, so to be safe I change it to only have a 50% chance to give points, this brings Snute up to ~ 75.1 % because sOs could pass him if it does give points.
September 15th, it is said that Red Bull Washington will not be giving WCS Points, this change brings Snute up to ~ 80.7 % Blizzcon chances, the highest chances he got in the year.
September 16th, the WCS Points for Red Bull Washington are announced, giving sOs the chance to pass Snute again, bringing Snute's chances down to ~ 69.5 %.

September 17th, in the GSL quarterfinals, Cure beats Solar and Innovation beats DongRaeGu, Solar getting knocked out helps Snute slightly more than Innovation winning hurt him, Snute's chances are now at the highest legitimate point in the year at ~ 70.8 %.

On September 18th the DreamHack Stockholm player list is set, this incredibly strong list of players coming for their last chance at Blizzcon brings Snute's chances down to ~ 53.5 %.

In Red Bull Washington, sOs loses on September 20th, bringing Snute back up to ~ 63 %.

September 23rd, MMA wins his WCS EU Premier ro16 group and brings Snute down to ~ 58 %.
In the GSL semifinals, soO beats Zest 4-3 after being down 1-3, bringing Snute's chances further down to ~ 46.9 % on September 24th.

On September 26th, Snute loses in his DreamHack Stockholm ro32 group after beating Solar, losing to jjakji and Solar in the rematch, going down to ~ 11.7 %.

Right now Snute has no more chances to gain WCS Points and is stuck at 2925 points. His only chance is to hope that no one passed him. If Pigbaby makes the finals of WCS AM, Snute is out, if any of ForGG/HerO/Innovation/Bunny/Scarlett/Golden/Heart wins their WCS region, Snute is out.

October 4th Innovation wins the GSL 4-2 over soO, knocking Snute out of the running.

If Innovation had not won the GSL, with MMA winning WCS EU and Bomber winning WCS AM, Snute would've made it as the #16 seed facing Bomber in the first round of the WCS Global Finals.
If Snute had gotten 4th place in DreamHack Stockholm, even with Innovation winning GSL, then he would've been the #14 seed facing Zest.

Come back tomorrow for the next retrospective! It will probably be shorter and simpler than this one since Snute had a very crazy year lol.

Here are the chances and WCS Points graphs in super-wide for for the full year.
Wide graph of Snute's chances throughout the year http://i.imgur.com/2fPxVma.png
Wide graph of Snute's WCS Points throughout the year http://i.imgur.com/EjKsRIU.png
And here is Snute's page with those same graphs where you can click and drag to zoom http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=111

IAmWithStupid

Russian Federation1016 Posts

October 14 2014 04:41 GMT

#974

Snute tried so hard
And got so far
But at the BlizzCon
It doesn't even matter...

Next year everything is possible!!!

opisska

Poland8852 Posts

October 14 2014 08:26 GMT

#975

I wasn't there for the weekend, but the bracket for WCS AM was quite fun, as the top16 got fixed already after Ro8

Funny how neither WCS EU nor WCS AM caused any change in the top16 at the end.

Die4Ever

United States17744 Posts

October 14 2014 18:14 GMT

#976

Zest will be the next retrospective! I'll make sure this one is shorter this time

Die4Ever

United States17744 Posts

October 15 2014 03:21 GMT

#977

Zest

Zest kind of made WCS look easy. I mean just look at his graph for the year.
[image loading]

He was actually over 99% for more than half the year. He has 5,800 WCS Points, by far the most WCS Points of any GSL player, with soO in 2nd place (lol) down by 2,150 WCS Points.
Let's review how he got to being the #1 GSL player for the year.

Chances January [image loading]

(No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)

In January he qualified for Code A by beating Impact and Creator, after losing to his nemesis Cure. Then on January 22nd in Code A, he beat Innovation and Stork, taking him up to ~ 11.8 % Blizzcon Chances.

Chances February [image loading]

WCS Points February [image loading]

On February 7th, he won his Code S ro32 group beating Trap and Leenock 4-1, going up to ~ 21.1 % Blizzcon Chances.

On February 26th I added the full year of WCS simulations, putting Zest at ~ 28.9 %.

Chances March [image loading]

WCS Points March [image loading]

In his Code S ro16 group, on March 6th he lost to Maru and then beat Soulkey and Dear, with a 5-4 score overall, going up to ~ 39 %.
Then in the quarterfinals he beat sOs 3-0 to go up to ~ 53 % on March 19th.
On March 26th in the semifinals he beat Rain 4-2 to get him into the finals and up to ~ 73 % Blizzcon Chances.

Chances April [image loading]

WCS Points April [image loading]

April 5th was the GSL finals, Zest vs soO. At this point, Zest was at ~ 78.9 % Blizzcon chances. With a ~ 66 % chance to win the match that was expected to put him at ~ 99.3 % if he won, and only ~ 37.6 % had he lost.
soO won the 1st game, and then they traded games back and forth until it was 3-3, and Zest won the final game to take the 1st place 4-3. This shot Zest up to ~ 99.3 %, and he would not fall below 97% for the rest of the year. Meanwhile soO fell down to ~ 14.5 %, showing just how big the difference is between 1st and 2nd place in terms of WCS Points.

April 15th I added Copenhagen Games Spring and 5 Placeholder tournaments, putting Zest at ~ 98.1 %.

On April 24th, Zest began his run in the GSL Global Championship, which he was seeded into for his GSL finals appearance. To continue his streak he went 2-0 over Parting and 2-1 over MMA, putting him at ~ 99.1 %.
On April 26th, the GSL Global Championship concluded with Zest going 3-2 over soO in the semifinals, and 4-3 over Parting in the finals, after being down 1-3. This puts Zest at ~ 99.7 % chances, and a minimum WCS Points of 2450.

April 30th he started the 2nd season of GSL for the year, beating TAiLS and Dark both 2-0, putting him at ~ 99.9 %.

Chances May [image loading]

WCS Points May [image loading]

May brought down his chances a little with the announcement of the player lists for HomeStoryCup and DreamHack Summer, since Zest was attending neither, putting him at ~ 98.3 % for the end of the month. But he kept the same 2550 minimum WCS Points for the whole month.

Chances June [image loading]

WCS Points June [image loading]

On June 6th the GSL continues with Zest in the ro16, advancing with a 2-0 over Innovation and a 2-1 over Soulkey, putting Zest way up at ~ 99.99%, and a minimum WCS Points of 2900.
On June 13th, Zest's streak finally comes to an end as he loses in the quarterfinals to TRUE 1-3.

Chances July [image loading]

WCS Points July [image loading]

On July 7th I added Red Bull Atlanta, IEM Shenzhen, Gfinity G3, and the DreamHack Valencia player list, bringing Zest down to ~ 99.3 %.

On July 17th in the IEM Shenzhen ro16 group, Zest beat jjakji 2-1 and San 2-0. Then on the 19th he lost to TaeJa in the quarterfinals 0-3, putting Zest at ~ 99.9 % chances.

Chances August [image loading]

WCS Points August [image loading]

In August, GSL Season 3 started up again. On the 14th, Zest beat Hurricane 2-0, lost to Rain 1-2, and beat Rogue 2-0 to advance from his round of 32 group.
Then on the 27th in the round of 16, he beat Soulkey 2-0, lost 1-2 to Cure, and then beat Soulkey 2-1 to advance to the quarterfinals yet again, securing his ~ 100 % chances which would remain for the rest of the year, with a minimum WCS Points of 3925.

In IEM Toronto, on the 29th he advanced from his ro16 group, first losing to Taeja, but then beating Polt and Bunny. Then on the 31st he beat Yoda 3-0, then Life 3-1 in the semifinals, before finally losing to Flash in the finals 1-4, giving Zest a minimum WCS Points of 4300.

Chances September [image loading]

WCS Points September [image loading]

In the KeSPA Cup from September 11th to the 14th, he beat Pigbaby 3-0, sOs 3-2, Classic 3-1, and then won in the finals 4-1 over CJ herO to bring his minimum WCS Points up to 5550.

Back in GSL, he played the quarterfinals against Rain on the 19th and won 3-0. Then he played against soO again in the semifinals on the 24th, but soO was finally able to beat Zest 4-3 after Zest was up 3-1. With this loss Zest ended his year with 5800 WCS Points and a #3 seed overall. He will be facing Life in the first round of the WCS Global Finals on November 1st-2nd.

Come back tomorrow for the next retrospective!

Here are the chances and WCS Points graphs in super-wide form for the full year.
Super Wide Overall Chances Graph http://i.imgur.com/b4pU4Ge.png
Super Wide Overall WCS Points Graph http://i.imgur.com/LCLulh0.png
And here's Zest's page where you can zoom the graphs as you please http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=1658