WCS Predictor 2014

Right at the top of the front page you can see the time of the last update and how many samples/simulations are included in this result set. Right now it says
Simulation #327, using results from 2014-02-02 19:13:34, has 21,000,000 samples.
The time and date is currently CST but I will soon make it be displayed in your current timezone. 21 million samples means that it actually ran through every tournament 21 million times.

When I do an update you can see it as it's in progress. You'll see results with 500,000 samples within a few minutes of me starting the update. If you refresh the page later you can see more refined statistics with many millions of samples. Right now it adds 500,000 samples about every minute that I'm running it.

Under this there is a section with many highlights including upcoming matches, many graphs, headbands, achievements, and more. More on these later.

At the bottom is the Players Table, the list of all the players and their chances to make top 16 for the year by points. This shows all of the players in the simulation, right now it's 1,661 players! This list also shows the minimum and mode WCS Points that they made in all the simulations. If you click on one of the player names you will be taken to their player page.

On the players pages you can see some info about them, their chances, their upcoming matches, a graph of their chances over time, and events that are expected to help or hurt their chances.

+ Show Spoiler [Events Explanation] +

Let's go back to the front page. The top section has a bunch of highlights.

+ Show Spoiler [Upcoming Matches] +

+ Show Spoiler [Summed Percentage Pie Charts] +

+ Show Spoiler [Headbands] +

+ Show Spoiler [Point Cutoffs] +

+ Show Spoiler [Achievements] +

+ Show Spoiler [Foreigner Hope] +

+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners and Losers Since 5+ Da…] +

--------UPDATE Sunday, Oct 05 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and GSL Results!
The biggest changes in this update are the likely seeds and likely first matches at WCS Finals. With MMA securing his #9 seed, we now have a confirmed first round match of MMA vs StarDust (see below for more).
Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5800
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5500
   
4. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
5. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
6. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5050
   
8. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4800
   
9. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4775
   
10. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3650
    
11. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475
    
12. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475
    
13. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3325
    
14. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
    
15. INnoVation (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3225
    
16. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 72.07 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
17. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 17.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
    
18. Pigbaby, is at ~ 6.07 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
    
19. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.79 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    

Biggest Winners Over The Past 5 Days
INnoVation went up by ~ 48.16 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 100 %
Jaedong went up by ~ 3.29 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 72.07 %

Biggest Losers Over The Past 5 Days
ForGG went down by ~ 18.63 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 0 %
Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 %
Bunny went down by ~ 10.22 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 0 %
Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 %
YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 %
Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 %
HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 %
Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.06 %

Likely Seeds
MMA has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon.
StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon.
soO has a ~ 89.14 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon.
Jaedong has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon.
Life has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals
~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 72.13 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 69.4 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 64.58 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 56.83 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

WCS AM Winning Gains
HerO would gain ~ 95.21 % if they win, with a ~ 4.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.79 % to ~ 100 %
Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.93 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.07 % to ~ 100 %
Scarlett would gain ~ 82.94 % if they win, with a ~ 17.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.06 % to ~ 100 %

These 3 players must win and will not make it with a 2nd place or lower. Any of these 3 players winning would knock Jaedong out. Innovation is secured.


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Saturday, Oct 04 9:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Playoffs Day 1 Results!
Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5800
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5500
   
4. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
5. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
6. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5050
   
8. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4800
   
9. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3650
   
10. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3525
    
11. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475
    
12. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475
    
13. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3325
    
14. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
    
15. INnoVation (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3225
    
16. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 72.05 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
17. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 17.08 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
    
18. Pigbaby, is at ~ 6.06 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
    
19. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.81 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    

Biggest Winners
INnoVation went up by ~ 48.16 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 100 %
Jaedong went up by ~ 3.27 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 72.05 %

Biggest Losers
ForGG went down by ~ 18.63 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 0 %
Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 %
Bunny went down by ~ 10.22 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 0 %
Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 %
YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 %
Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.06 %
HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 %
Scarlett went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.08 %

WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 72.05 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

Foreigner Hope
Scarlett ~ 17.08 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.08 % chance overall.
~ 0 % chances for 2+ foreigners to qualify for Blizzcon!

Likely Seeds
StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon.
Life has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon.
INnoVation has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon.
Jaedong has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon.
Classic has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals
~ 58.21 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 50.76 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 49.11 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 44.01 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.57 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

WCS AM Winning Gains
HerO would gain ~ 95.19 % if they win, with a ~ 4.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.81 % to ~ 100 %
Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.94 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.06 % to ~ 100 %
Scarlett would gain ~ 82.94 % if they win, with a ~ 17.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.06 % to ~ 100 %

These 3 players must win and will not make it with a 2nd place or lower. Any of these 3 players winning would knock Jaedong out. Innovation is secured.


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Saturday, Oct 04 11:45am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Finals Results!
Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5800
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5500
   
4. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
5. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5125
   
6. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5050
   
8. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4800
   
9. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3650
   
10. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475
    
11. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475
    
12. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3325
    
13. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3275
    
14. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
    
15. INnoVation (SKT T1), is at ~ 92.07 %, Min WCS Points: 3225
    
16. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 51.59 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
17. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 18.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
18. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 17.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
    
19. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 9.57 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
20. Pigbaby, is at ~ 6.07 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
    
21. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.79 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    

Biggest Winners
INnoVation went up by ~ 40.23 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 92.07 %
ForGG went up by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %

Biggest Losers
Jaedong went down by ~ 17.2 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.59 %
Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 %
Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 %
YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 %
Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 %
HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 %
Bunny went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 9.57 %
Scarlett went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.05 %

WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 51.58 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 92.07 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

Foreigner Hope
Scarlett ~ 15.42 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.06 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 7.93 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 9.57 % chance overall.

~ 24.99 % chance for 1+ foreigner at Blizzcon
~ 1.63 % chance for 2 foreigners at Blizzcon

Likely Seeds
StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon.
TaeJa has a ~ 64.35 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon.
Classic has a ~ 53.39 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon.
HyuN has a ~ 51.88 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon.
Life has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals
~ 43.88 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 43.4 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 41.06 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.69 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

WCS EU Winning Gains
Bunny would gain ~ 90.43 % if they win, with a ~ 9.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.57 % to ~ 100 %
ForGG would gain ~ 81.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.86 % to ~ 100 %

WCS AM Winning Gains
HerO would gain ~ 95.2 % if they win, with a ~ 4.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.8 % to ~ 100 %
Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.93 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.07 % to ~ 100 %
Scarlett would gain ~ 82.95 % if they win, with a ~ 17.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.05 % to ~ 100 %

No one benefits from a 2nd place or less anymore. If Bunny/ForGG wins WCS EU AND HerO/Pigbaby/Scarlett wins WCS AM, then Innovation is out. If any of those above 5 players wins then Jaedong is out.

Also Terran finally caught up with Protoss in the summed percentages.
Terran ~ 38.78 %
Protoss ~ 38.18 %
Zerg ~ 23.04 %

And SKT T1 is now the highest team on the teams summed percentages, even beating teamless.
SKT T1 ~ 18.25 %
teamless ~ 12.88 %
mYinsanity ~ 12.5 %
Acer ~ 7.32 %
Liquid ~ 7.15 %

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Sep 30 4:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Finals Preview!
Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5800
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5500
   
4. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
5. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5125
   
6. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5050
   
8. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4800
   
9. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3650
   
10. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475
    
11. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475
    
12. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3325
    
13. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3275
    
14. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
    
15. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 68.79 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
16. INnoVation (SKT T1), is at ~ 51.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2225
    
17. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 18.63 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
18. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 17.43 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
    
19. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 13.55 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
    
20. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 10.22 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
21. Pigbaby, is at ~ 7.2 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
    
22. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.81 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
23. Golden (Ai), is at ~ 2.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1600
    
24. Heart (Axiom), is at ~ 2.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    
25. YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 2.01 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
26. HuK (EG), is at ~ 1.04 %, Min WCS Points: 1450
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 15.56 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 17.72 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (before DH Stockholm, 3,000 was at ~ 44.7 %)
~ 22.21 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 68.79 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 91.83 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (before DH Stockholm, 3,575 was the lowest with ~ 100 %)
+ Show Spoiler [All Cutoffs] +

Foreigner Hope
Scarlett ~ 15.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.43 % chance overall.
Snute ~ 13.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.55 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 8.44 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.22 % chance overall.
HuK ~ 1.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.04 % chance overall.

~ 40.46 % chances of 1+ foreigners at Blizzcon.
~ 1.78 % chances of 2 foreigners at Blizzcon.

Likely Seeds
StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon.
TaeJa has a ~ 64.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon.
soO has a ~ 63.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon.
Classic has a ~ 53.1 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon.
HyuN has a ~ 51.83 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals
~ 63.16 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 40.43 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.12 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 36.11 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 33.2 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

GSL Finals preview!
Starts in
INnoVation must win this!
INnoVation, soO in GSL S3 Code S
- INnoVation is at ~ 51.84 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 91.83 %.
~ 43.55 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
-------------------------------------------------
- soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
~ 43.55 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.
~ 56.45 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.

INnoVation has a ~ 28.79 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon.
INnoVation has a ~ 23.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon.

~ 24.22 % chance to see INnoVation vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 7.11 % chance to see INnoVation vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 5.77 % chance to see INnoVation vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 5.44 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 5.25 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 4.05 % chance to see INnoVation vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals.

soO has a ~ 63.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon.
soO has a ~ 33.71 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon.
soO has a ~ 3.13 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon.

~ 63.16 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 24.04 % chance to see soO vs TaeJa in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 12.23 % chance to see soO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 0.52 % chance to see soO vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals.


Other predicted effects
-If soO wins...
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 91.84 %
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 31.11 %
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 5.19 %
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 5.09 %
This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 4.62 %
This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 8.66 %
This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 2.39 %

-If INnoVation wins...
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.01 %
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 %
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 %
This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 %
This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 %
This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 %

-Single events that hurt INnoVation
~ 4.81 % of the time
HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.1 %

~ 17.43 % of the time
Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.17 %

~ 6.07 % of the time
Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier
This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.2 %

~ 18.63 % of the time
ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.45 %

~ 10.22 % of the time
Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.46 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Stockholm Player List Set!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5550
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5200
   
4. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5125
   
5. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
   
7. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3350
   
10. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 99.25 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
11. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 96.85 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
    
12. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 95.31 %, Min WCS Points: 3100
    
13. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 65.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2725
    
14. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 64.65 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
    
15. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 57.73 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
16. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 53.52 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
    
17. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 30.68 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
18. INnoVation, is at ~ 30.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
    
19. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 19.87 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
    
20. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 14.15 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
    
21. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 13.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
    
22. YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 13.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
23. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 11.21 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
    
24. Pigbaby, is at ~ 10.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
    
25. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 8.08 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.16 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.31 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 44.7 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 64.36 % in yesterday's post)
~ 51.99 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

Biggest winners and losers since yesterday's post before the full Stockholm player list was set.
Biggest Winners
soO went up by ~ 12.6 %, going from ~ 18.08 % to ~ 30.68 %
MMA went up by ~ 10.19 %, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 65.36 %
YoDa went up by ~ 5.11 %, going from ~ 8.19 % to ~ 13.31 %
Jaedong went up by ~ 3.36 %, going from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 64.65 %
HerO went up by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 8.08 %
MaNa went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.82 % to ~ 0.98 %

Biggest Losers
Snute went down by ~ 17.23 %, going from ~ 70.75 % to ~ 53.52 %
sOs went down by ~ 3.78 %, going from ~ 61.51 % to ~ 57.73 %
Life went down by ~ 2.58 %, going from ~ 99.43 % to ~ 96.85 %
Bunny went down by ~ 1.89 %, going from ~ 15.88 % to ~ 13.99 %
Heart went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 6.89 % to ~ 5.14 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Foreigner Hope
Snute ~ 37.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 53.52 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 9.75 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.87 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 6.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.99 % chance overall.
HuK ~ 1.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.43 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 1.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.63 % chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % to ~ 74.6 %
Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.87 % to ~ 18.16 %

So let's do another checkup lol. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 3 players over 0.1%.
From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances

GSL
Rain would gain ~ 85.86 % if they win, with a ~ 14.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.14 % to ~ 100 %
soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 5.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 100 %
INnoVation would gain ~ 68.91 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.62 % to ~ 99.54 %

WCS AM
HerO would gain ~ 91.92 % if they win, with a ~ 6.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 100 %
Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.63 % if they win, with a ~ 6.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 100 %
Scarlett would gain ~ 80.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.86 % to ~ 99.99 %
Heart would gain ~ 59.62 % if they win, with a ~ 7.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.14 % to ~ 64.76 %
HuK would gain ~ 44.64 % if they win, with a ~ 5.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 47.06 %

WCS EU
Welmu would gain ~ 97.36 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 99.99 %
ForGG would gain ~ 88.79 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 99.99 %
Bunny would gain ~ 86.01 % if they win, with a ~ 11.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 100 %
Golden would gain ~ 85.02 % if they win, with a ~ 3.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 88.14 %
YoDa would gain ~ 50.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 63.53 %
MaNa would gain ~ 37.55 % if they win, with a ~ 2.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 38.54 %
MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 %
Dayshi would gain ~ 17.31 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 17.63 %

Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance, probably relying on the Placeholder Tournament.
Cure would gain ~ 1.21 % if they win, with a ~ 20.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 1.53 %
Stats would gain ~ 0.03 % if they win, with a ~ 11.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 %
Happy would gain ~ 0.86 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.96 %

Here are some simple events for GSL.
+ Show Spoiler [GSL Events] +

Simple events for WCS AM
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Events] +

Simple events for WCS EU
+ Show Spoiler [WCS EU Events] +

We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them.
Snute
~ 3.01 % of the time
Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 100 %

~ 3.13 % of the time
Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 6.07 % of the time
Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.85 %

~ 11.48 % of the time
Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 93.74 %

~ 20.74 % of the time
Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 68.66 %

~ 27.81 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 29.36 %

sOs
~ 14.85 % of the time
sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 %

~ 13.12 % of the time
sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 99.97 %

~ 25.06 % of the time
sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 98.97 %

~ 46.97 % of the time
sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 10.58 %

Jaedong
~ 2.25 % of the time
Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 100 %

~ 2.67 % of the time
Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 5.33 % of the time
Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.86 %

~ 10.52 % of the time
Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 94.81 %

~ 19.91 % of the time
Jaedong gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 74.58 %

~ 29.02 % of the time
Jaedong gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 49.82 %

Then we also have Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm.
Red Bull Washington Winning Gains
sOs would gain ~ 42.26 % if they win, with a ~ 14.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 %
Scarlett would gain ~ 5.36 % if they win, with a ~ 14.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 25.22 %
Cure would gain ~ 2.05 % if they win, with a ~ 12.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 2.37 %
PartinG would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 14.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

DreamHack Stockholm Winning Gains
soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 3.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 99.99 %
HerO would gain ~ 59.79 % if they win, with a ~ 1.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 67.86 %
Snute would gain ~ 46.48 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 53.52 % to ~ 100 %
Jaedong would gain ~ 35.34 % if they win, with a ~ 2.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 64.66 % to ~ 100 %
MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 3.71 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here!

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Quarterfinals Set!
Also added Huk and Bunny to DreamHack Stockholm, and reduced the Placeholder Tournament down to just 5%.
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5550
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5200
   
4. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5125
   
5. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
   
7. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3350
   
10. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
11. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 99.43 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
    
12. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 96.07 %, Min WCS Points: 3100
    
13. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 70.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
    
14. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 61.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
15. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 61.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
    
16. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 55.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2725
    
17. INnoVation, is at ~ 30.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
    
18. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 20.48 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
    
19. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 18.05 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
20. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 15.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
    
21. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 14.28 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
    
22. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 12.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
    
23. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 10.94 %, Min WCS Points: 2500
    
24. YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 8.19 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
25. Heart (Axiom), is at ~ 6.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.53 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 1.01 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 61.14 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 64.36 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 41.17 % in yesterday's post)
~ 99.99 % of the time 3,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,575 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in yesterday's post)

Biggest winners and losers from yesterday's post.
Biggest Winners
INnoVation went up by ~ 12.95 %, going from ~ 17.88 % to ~ 30.83 %
Scarlett went up by ~ 9.86 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 20.47 %
Pigbaby went up by ~ 6.39 %, going from ~ 4.55 % to ~ 10.94 %
Bunny went up by ~ 5.44 %, going from ~ 10.46 % to ~ 15.9 %
herO went up by ~ 5.15 %, going from ~ 90.93 % to ~ 96.08 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Biggest Losers
Jaedong went down by ~ 20.5 %, going from ~ 81.81 % to ~ 61.31 %
viOLet went down by ~ 12.28 %, going from ~ 12.45 % to ~ 0.17 %
Solar went down by ~ 10.61 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 0.01 %
VortiX went down by ~ 5.59 %, going from ~ 5.59 % to ~ 0.01 %
DongRaeGu went down by ~ 2.65 %, going from ~ 2.65 % to ~ 0.01 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Foreigner Hope
Snute ~ 46.14 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.73 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 6.47 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 20.47 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 4.4 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 15.9 % chance overall.
HuK ~ 1.15 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.33 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 0.62 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.58 % chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 82.28 % to ~ 85.82 %
Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 31.03 % to ~ 26.87 %

So let's take a look at where we're at. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots as argonautdice said. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 5 players over 0.1%.
From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances

GSL
Rain would gain ~ 85.73 % if they win, with a ~ 14.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 100 %
soO would gain ~ 81.93 % if they win, with a ~ 5.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.07 % to ~ 100 %
INnoVation would gain ~ 69.18 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.82 % to ~ 99.99 %

WCS AM
HerO would gain ~ 93.76 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 100 %
Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.07 % if they win, with a ~ 5.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.93 % to ~ 100 %
Scarlett would gain ~ 79.52 % if they win, with a ~ 18.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 20.48 % to ~ 100 %
Heart would gain ~ 78.17 % if they win, with a ~ 8.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.88 % to ~ 85.05 %
HuK would gain ~ 60.47 % if they win, with a ~ 5.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.32 % to ~ 63.8 %

WCS EU
Welmu would gain ~ 97.42 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 100 %
Golden would gain ~ 91.76 % if they win, with a ~ 3.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 95.14 %
ForGG would gain ~ 87.81 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.19 % to ~ 100 %
Bunny would gain ~ 84.1 % if they win, with a ~ 11.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 15.9 % to ~ 100 %
MMA would gain ~ 44.83 % if they win, with a ~ 7.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 100 %
MaNa would gain ~ 31.52 % if they win, with a ~ 2.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 32.35 %
YoDa would gain ~ 30.97 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 39.17 %
Dayshi would gain ~ 29.94 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 30.49 %

Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance.
Cure would gain ~ 2.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.8 %
Stats would gain ~ 0.21 % if they win, with a ~ 11.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.24 %
Happy would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 3.75 %

We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them.
Snute
~ 5.09 % of the time
Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 %

~ 4.61 % of the time
Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 %

~ 8.47 % of the time
Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 14.47 % of the time
Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.94 %

~ 23.15 % of the time
Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 89.08 %

~ 23.37 % of the time
Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 39.5 %

sOs
~ 14.86 % of the time
sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.24 % of the time
sOs gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %

~ 13.12 % of the time
sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.16 % of the time
sOs gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %

~ 25.06 % of the time
sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 0.29 % of the time
sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 %

~ 46.95 % of the time
sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 18.04 %

~ 0.46 % of the time
sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 97.18 %

~ 0.7 % of the time
sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 89.81 %

Jaedong
~ 0.13 % of the time
Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.12 % of the time
Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.23 % of the time
Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %

~ 0.41 % of the time
Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 99.8 %

Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here!

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Sep 16 4:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Red Bull Washington Confirmed WCS Points!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5550
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5200
   
4. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5000
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4825
   
7. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3350
   
10. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 99.86 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
11. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 97.84 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
    
12. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 90.92 %, Min WCS Points: 3100
    
13. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 81.79 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
    
14. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 69.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
    
15. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 62.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
16. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 50.42 %, Min WCS Points: 2725
    
17. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 18.66 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
18. INnoVation, is at ~ 17.85 %, Min WCS Points: 1725
    
19. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 14.49 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
    
20. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 12.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
    
21. viOLet, is at ~ 12.43 %, Min WCS Points: 2275
    
22. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 10.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1650
    
23. Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 10.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
24. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 10.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
25. YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 5.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1125
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.57 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.85 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 41.17 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 57.65 % in the previous update)
~ 49.44 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,500 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in the previous update)


Biggest winners and losers from readdition and confirmation of Red Bull Washington.
Biggest Winners
sOs went up by ~ 41.66 %, going from ~ 21.17 % to ~ 62.84 %
DongRaeGu went up by ~ 2.56 %, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 2.64 %
Scarlett went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 9.9 % to ~ 10.62 %
Cure went up by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.2 %
Solar went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 10.45 % to ~ 10.62 %

Biggest Losers
Snute went down by ~ 11.16 %, going from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 69.5 %
Jaedong went down by ~ 8.43 %, going from ~ 90.22 % to ~ 81.79 %
herO went down by ~ 5.82 %, going from ~ 96.74 % to ~ 90.92 %
MMA went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 55.18 % to ~ 50.42 %
soO went down by ~ 4.12 %, going from ~ 22.78 % to ~ 18.66 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Foreigner Hope
Snute ~ 49.82 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 69.5 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 3.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.47 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.62 % chance overall.
VortiX ~ 1.93 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.59 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 0.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.99 % chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 89.78 % to ~ 82.28 %
Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 25.35 % to ~ 31.03 %


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Sep 15 8:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Red Bull Washington Removed!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5550
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5200
   
4. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5000
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4825
   
7. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3350
   
10. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 99.98 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
11. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 99.46 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
    
12. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 96.73 %, Min WCS Points: 3100
    
13. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 90.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
    
14. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 80.66 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
    
15. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 55.17 %, Min WCS Points: 2725
    
16. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 22.77 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
17. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 21.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
18. INnoVation, is at ~ 18.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1725
    
19. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 14.73 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
    
20. viOLet, is at ~ 13.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2275
    
21. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 12.84 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
    
22. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 10.46 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
23. Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 10.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
24. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 9.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
25. YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 8.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1125
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.66 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.98 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 55.23 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 57.65 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 49.23 % in the previous update)
~ 99.99 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

Biggest winners and losers from Removal of Red Bull Washington.
Biggest Winners
Snute went up by ~ 5.51 %, going from ~ 75.15 % to ~ 80.66 %
Jaedong went up by ~ 4.33 %, going from ~ 85.91 % to ~ 90.24 %
MMA went up by ~ 4.11 %, going from ~ 51.06 % to ~ 55.17 %
herO went up by ~ 2.95 %, going from ~ 93.79 % to ~ 96.73 %
soO went up by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 20.96 % to ~ 22.77 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Biggest Losers
sOs went down by ~ 20.81 %, going from ~ 41.99 % to ~ 21.19 %
DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 1.27 % to ~ 0.08 %
Rain went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 15.65 % to ~ 14.73 %
Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 10.25 % to ~ 9.88 %
Bunny went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 10.46 %

Foreigner Hope
Snute ~ 56.46 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 80.66 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 2.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.46 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 2.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 9.88 % chance overall.
VortiX ~ 1.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.6 % chance overall.
HuK ~ 0.74 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.84 % chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 86.14 % to ~ 89.78 %
Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 23.45 % to ~ 25.35 %

Most Likely First Round WCS Finals Matches
~ 37.25 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 23.76 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 23.53 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 22.59 % chance to see HyuN vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 22.09 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 22.03 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 19.69 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 17.64 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 17.59 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 17.43 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Sep 14 7:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow Completed!
I also made Red Bull Washington only give WCS points half of the time since there's still been no announcement about it, and I added in the confirmed players for DreamHack Stockholm.
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
   
2. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5550
   
3. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5200
   
4. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5000
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4825
   
7. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3350
   
10. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 99.92 %, Min WCS Points: 3200
    
11. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 98.64 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
    
12. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 93.78 %, Min WCS Points: 3100
    
13. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 85.92 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
    
14. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 75.12 %, Min WCS Points: 2925
    
15. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 51.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2725
    
16. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 41.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
17. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 20.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
18. INnoVation, is at ~ 18.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1725
    
19. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 15.64 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
    
20. viOLet, is at ~ 13.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2275
    
21. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 12.73 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
    
22. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 10.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
23. Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 10.36 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
24. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 10.25 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
25. YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 7.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1125
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (a week ago 2,275 points was the highest with 0% chances)
~ 0.64 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 0.96 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 23.52 % a week ago)
~ 49.23 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 89.1 % a week ago)
~ 99.99 % of the time 3,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 100 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (a week ago 3,600 points was the lowest with 100% chances)
The point cuttoffs are moving up! The 100% marker moving down is natural, since all possibilities are accounted for, the 0% and 100% markers should only move inwards.

Biggest winners and losers from KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow (before the changes I made to Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm).
Biggest Winners
herO went up by ~ 49.81 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 94.32 %
Classic went up by ~ 36.5 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.87 %
MMA went up by ~ 35.61 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 53.88 %
jjakji went up by ~ 27.32 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 99.99 %
Snute went up by ~ 7.54 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 42.22 %
Heart went up by ~ 1.45 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 6.38 %

Biggest Losers
soO went down by ~ 60.43 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 21.21 %
Pigbaby went down by ~ 21.52 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 5.64 %
Rain went down by ~ 17.23 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 16.07 %
sOs went down by ~ 10.28 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 64.03 %
Jaedong went down by ~ 9.34 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 88.31 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Biggest winners and losers from the changes to Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm. The Red Bull change had a huge effect on sOs! (Red Bull, please make an announcement!) Snute had large gains mostly due to his confirmation of attending Dreamhack Stockholm, and I think the Red Bull change helped him too.
Biggest Winners
Snute went up by ~ 32.9 %, going from ~ 42.22 % to ~ 75.12 %
ForGG went up by ~ 1.38 %, going from ~ 11.35 % to ~ 12.73 %
Dayshi went up by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.79 %
MaNa went up by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 1.27 %
Golden went up by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 4.32 %

Biggest Losers
sOs went down by ~ 22.03 %, going from ~ 64.02 % to ~ 41.99 %
MMA went down by ~ 2.82 %, going from ~ 53.87 % to ~ 51.04 %
Jaedong went down by ~ 2.4 %, going from ~ 88.32 % to ~ 85.92 %
DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 2.8 % to ~ 1.26 %
viOLet went down by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 14.24 % to ~ 13.04 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Foreigner Hope
Snute ~ 52.96 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 75.12 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 3.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.62 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 2.94 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.25 % chance overall.
VortiX ~ 1.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.65 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 0.81 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.06 % chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 65.55 % to ~ 86.14 %
Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 17.29 % to ~ 23.44 %


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Saturday, Sep 06 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow Previews!
In this update I also made it so that the Placeholder Tournament 1 only has a 25% chance of it happening, so most of the samples don't include this tournament at all, because I feel it is unlikely that we will have another tournament announced.
I will post the GSL Quarterfinals previews after KeSPA Cup is completed, since that will have big impact on many of those players, but you can already look at those previews on the website.

Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5000
   
4. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4575
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4425
   
7. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
9. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 99.92 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
   
10. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 97.65 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
    
11. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 81.54 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
12. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 77.17 %, Min WCS Points: 2450
    
13. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 69.88 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
14. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 62.94 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
15. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 44.64 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
16. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 36.03 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
    
17. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 33.44 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
    
18. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 26.51 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
19. viOLet, is at ~ 22.21 %, Min WCS Points: 2275
    
20. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 19.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
    
21. INnoVation, is at ~ 19.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1725
    
22. Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 13.9 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
23. YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 13.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1000
    
24. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 12.6 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
25. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 12.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
    

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +
2,850 WCS Points has over 30% better chances than 2,825 WCS Points!

Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago
soO went up by ~ 22.66 %, going from ~ 58.88 % to ~ 81.54 %
Rain went up by ~ 6.67 %, going from ~ 26.77 % to ~ 33.44 %
Solar went up by ~ 6.02 %, going from ~ 7.87 % to ~ 13.9 %
ForGG went up by ~ 4.32 %, going from ~ 7.72 % to ~ 12.05 %
DongRaeGu went up by ~ 2.21 %, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 4.08 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago
Flash went down by ~ 19.45 %, going from ~ 23.17 % to ~ 3.72 %
sOs went down by ~ 6.52 %, going from ~ 83.69 % to ~ 77.17 %
jjakji went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 72.57 % to ~ 69.88 %
TRUE went down by ~ 2.31 %, going from ~ 2.32 % to ~ 0.01 %
Classic went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 65.03 % to ~ 62.94 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

KeSPA Cup Match Previews
Starts in
This match is important for Classic!
+ Show Spoiler [Classic, Rogue in KeSPA Cup] +

Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [San, ByuL in KeSPA Cup] +

Starts in
This match is important for Pigbaby!
+ Show Spoiler [Zest, Pigbaby in KeSPA Cup] +

Starts in
This match is important for sOs!
+ Show Spoiler [sOs, Reality in KeSPA Cup] +

Starts in
Flash must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Flash, StarDust in KeSPA Cup] +

Starts in
This match is important for soO!
soO has the #2 headband!
This is a match for the #2 headband!
+ Show Spoiler [soO, Super in KeSPA Cup] +

Starts in
herO must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [herO, Sorry in KeSPA Cup] +

Starts in
This match is important for Rain!
+ Show Spoiler [Rain, Bomber in KeSPA Cup] +

KeSPA Cup Winning Chances
Zest has a ~ 13.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Rain has a ~ 12.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 33.44 % to ~ 99.99 %
Flash has a ~ 12.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 30.35 %
herO has a ~ 10.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 100 %
sOs has a ~ 8.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 100 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

KeSPA Cup Winning Gains
Pigbaby would gain ~ 73.49 % if they win, with a ~ 2.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 26.51 % to ~ 100 %
Rain would gain ~ 66.56 % if they win, with a ~ 12.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 33.44 % to ~ 99.99 %
herO would gain ~ 55.36 % if they win, with a ~ 10.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 100 %
Classic would gain ~ 37.06 % if they win, with a ~ 4.97 % chance to win, going from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 100 %
Flash would gain ~ 26.63 % if they win, with a ~ 12.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 30.35 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

KeSPA Cup Top 21 Events (cause Flash)
+ Show Spoiler [Events] +

DreamHack Moscow Winning Chances
YoDa has a ~ 11.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.45 % to ~ 16.84 %
Life has a ~ 9.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 %
HyuN has a ~ 8.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Solar has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.9 % to ~ 31.35 %
Dear has a ~ 7.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.56 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

DreamHack Moscow Winning Gains
Snute would gain ~ 63.96 % if they win, with a ~ 6.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 99.98 %
MMA would gain ~ 49.85 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 69.47 %
Solar would gain ~ 17.46 % if they win, with a ~ 7.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.9 % to ~ 31.35 %
Welmu would gain ~ 8.55 % if they win, with a ~ 2.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.84 % to ~ 12.38 %
Golden would gain ~ 4.2 % if they win, with a ~ 3.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 8.79 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

DreamHack Moscow Top 20 Events
+ Show Spoiler [Events] +

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Sep 01 8:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Moscow Player List!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5000
   
4. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4575
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4425
   
7. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
9. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 99.76 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
   
10. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 94.63 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
    
11. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 90.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
12. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 82.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
13. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 63.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
14. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 57.08 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
15. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 43.15 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
16. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 37.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
    
17. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 26.59 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
18. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 26.13 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
19. viOLet, is at ~ 23.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2275
    
20. Flash (KT), is at ~ 21.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
    
21. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 19.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
    
22. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 12.76 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
23. YoDa (TCM), is at ~ 12.3 %, Min WCS Points: 1000
    
24. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 11.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
25. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 11.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    

Snute is now in the top 16 most likely players, with his confirmation to DreamHack Moscow, knocking Rain out!

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

This update also has Flash's new Aligulac rating which gave him a pretty nice boost, and I removed Placeholder Tournament 2 since we're getting closer to Blizzcon and no new tournaments are being announced. I will probably remove Placeholder Tournament 1 in October.
Biggest Winners Since 1 Day Ago
Snute went up by ~ 22.88 %, going from ~ 14.71 % to ~ 37.59 %
MMA went up by ~ 6.19 %, going from ~ 13.18 % to ~ 19.38 %
YoDa went up by ~ 3.89 %, going from ~ 8.42 % to ~ 12.3 %
Flash went up by ~ 3.82 %, going from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 21.74 %
Solar went up by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 7.16 % to ~ 8.08 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Biggest Losers Since 1 Day Ago
herO went down by ~ 5.6 %, going from ~ 48.75 % to ~ 43.15 %
Classic went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 68.48 % to ~ 63.72 %
viOLet went down by ~ 4.41 %, going from ~ 27.89 % to ~ 23.48 %
soO went down by ~ 4.34 %, going from ~ 61.42 % to ~ 57.08 %
Rain went down by ~ 3.72 %, going from ~ 30.31 % to ~ 26.59 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

With the addition of the DreamHack Moscow player list, the chances of 1+ foreigners qualifying for Blizzcon went from ~ 51.29 % up to ~ 64.08 %, and the chances for 2+ foreigners went from ~ 9.33 % up to ~ 15.39 %.

Foreign Hopes
Snute ~ 25.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 37.59 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 6.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.76 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 6.29 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 11.26 % chance overall.
VortiX ~ 2.88 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.2 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 2.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.99 % chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

DreamHack Moscow Winning Chances
YoDa has a ~ 11.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 16.65 %
Life has a ~ 9.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 %
HyuN has a ~ 9.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Solar has a ~ 8.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 19.39 %
Dear has a ~ 7.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.55 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

DreamHack Moscow Winning Gains
Snute would gain ~ 62.32 % if they win, with a ~ 6.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 99.92 %
MMA would gain ~ 48.44 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 67.81 %
Solar would gain ~ 11.31 % if they win, with a ~ 8.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 19.39 %
Welmu would gain ~ 8.8 % if they win, with a ~ 2.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 12.8 %
YoDa would gain ~ 4.34 % if they win, with a ~ 11.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 16.65 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

DreamHack Moscow Top 50 Events (more here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=36 )
~ 5.73 % of the time
Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 93.64 %

~ 10.38 % of the time
Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 72.7 %

~ 28.62 % of the time
Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 24.34 %

~ 16.11 % of the time
Snute gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 80.15 %

~ 71.38 % of the time
Snute doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 42.92 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

I also removed Placeholder Tournament 2, and added the Final Seed Stats to player pages (here's Flash's page for an example http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55 )

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Aug 31 9:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Toronto Completed!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5000
   
4. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4575
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4425
   
7. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
9. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 98.97 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
   
10. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 94.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
    
11. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 91.57 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
12. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 84.54 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
13. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 68.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
14. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 61.42 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
15. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 48.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
16. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 30.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
17. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 29.35 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
18. viOLet, is at ~ 27.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2275
    
19. Flash (KT), is at ~ 17.91 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
    
20. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 14.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
    
21. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 14.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
22. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 13.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
    
23. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 13.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
24. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 12.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
25. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 8.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1200
    

So right now we have -
8 players fully locked in (Hyun, MC, Taeja, StarDust, Polt, San, Zest, Bomber)
3 players almost certain with 90% or higher (Life, Jaedong, jjakji)
3 players with great chances over 60% (sOs, Classic, soO)
4 players with decent chances over 20% (herO, Rain, Pigbaby, viOLet)
6 players to look out for a miracle run with over 10% (Flash, Snute, Scarlett, MMA, Bunny, Innovation)
16 players with poor chances over 1% (full list of players here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player_list )

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago
Life went up by ~ 33.81 %, going from ~ 65.15 % to ~ 98.97 %
Flash went up by ~ 11.2 %, going from ~ 6.71 % to ~ 17.91 %
Snute went up by ~ 3.5 %, going from ~ 11.22 % to ~ 14.72 %

Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago
herO went down by ~ 15.74 %, going from ~ 64.5 % to ~ 48.76 %
sOs went down by ~ 8.82 %, going from ~ 93.34 % to ~ 84.52 %
Scarlett went down by ~ 5.61 %, going from ~ 19.79 % to ~ 14.18 %
Jaedong went down by ~ 3.12 %, going from ~ 97.7 % to ~ 94.58 %
soO went down by ~ 2.53 %, going from ~ 63.94 % to ~ 61.42 %
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Flash now has the #2 Headband and Effort still holds the #1 Headband. Will we see another #1 vs #2 match this year?
With this tournament, the chances of 1+ foreigners qualifying for Blizzcon went from ~ 53.75 % down to ~ 51.29 %, and the chances for 2+ foreigners went from ~ 10.87 % down to ~ 9.33 %.

Foreign Hopes
Snute ~ 9.99 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 14.71 % chance overall.
Scarlett ~ 9.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 14.18 % chance overall.
Bunny ~ 9.35 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.17 % chance overall.
VortiX ~ 3.81 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.47 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 2.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.68 % chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Chances for Seeds
Bomber has a ~ 35.42 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon.
HyuN has a ~ 32.3 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon.
HyuN has a ~ 31.33 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon.
MC has a ~ 24.56 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon.
Zest has a ~ 23.84 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

Chances for 1st Round Blizzcon Matches
~ 17.29 % chance to see Life vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon.
~ 14.19 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa as a first match at Blizzcon.
~ 13.78 % chance to see Bomber vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon.
~ 13.48 % chance to see Life vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon.
~ 13.17 % chance to see Life vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon.
+ Show Spoiler [More] +

I know everyone is wondering about Flash now, here are the top 20 events from his page, see more here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55
+ Show Spoiler [Flash's Events] +

We're now running out of tournaments, only the 3 WCS regions, 2 Dreamhacks, KeSPA Cup, Red Bull Washington, and the 2 placeholders left. I may have to remove the 2 placeholders soon if they don't get filled or at least 1 of them, any feedback on this?

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 26 11:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis Redo!
Oops I messed up the previous one....REDO!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
4. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4625
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4575
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4425
   
7. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3625
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
9. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 98.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
   
10. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 94.44 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
11. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 92.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
12. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 67.17 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
13. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 63.56 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
14. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 61.78 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
15. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 55.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 36.47 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
17. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 32.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
18. viOLet, is at ~ 28.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2150
    
19. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 20.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
20. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 16.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
    
21. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 14.78 %, Min WCS Points: 1650
    
22. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 13.08 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
23. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 11.18 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
24. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 9.68 %, Min WCS Points: 1200
    
25. YoDa, is at ~ 9.28 %, Min WCS Points: 875
    

WCS Point Cutoffs - I simplified the WCS Point Cutoffs view a bit. Now it only shows 7 different points: the highest points with 0% chances, the lowest points with better than 0% chances, 2500 points, the points closest to 50% chances, 3000 points, the highest points with less than 100% chances, and the lowest points with 100% chances. You can still click "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to show more.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago
herO went up by ~ 11.09 %, going from ~ 44.5 % to ~ 55.59 %
Life went up by ~ 8.1 %, going from ~ 59.07 % to ~ 67.17 %
DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.65 %, going from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 2.52 %
Welmu went up by ~ 1.53 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 3.62 %
soO went up by ~ 1.25 %, going from ~ 60.53 % to ~ 61.78 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +

Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago
Snute went down by ~ 10.83 %, going from ~ 22.01 % to ~ 11.18 %
Scarlett went down by ~ 2.35 %, going from ~ 22.54 % to ~ 20.18 %
Maru went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 9.17 % to ~ 6.91 %
sOs went down by ~ 1.37 %, going from ~ 93.72 % to ~ 92.36 %
Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 37.81 % to ~ 36.47 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +

GSL Code S Round of 16 Group Previews
Starts in
Soulkey must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Zest, Cure, Soulkey, Reality in GSL S3…] +

Starts in
INnoVation must win this!
PartinG must win this!
Maru must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [INnoVation, PartinG, Maru, Stats in GS…] +

Starts in
Solar must win this!
This match is important for Rain!
+ Show Spoiler [Rain, sOs, Solar, EffOrt in GSL S3 Cod…] +

Starts in
Flash must win this!
DongRaeGu must win this!
TRUE must win this!
This match is important for soO!
+ Show Spoiler [Flash, soO, DongRaeGu, TRUE in GSL S3…] +

Winning Chances
Rain has a ~ 12.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 32.66 % to ~ 100 %
INnoVation has a ~ 11.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.08 % to ~ 99.87 %
sOs has a ~ 9.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.36 % to ~ 100 %
Zest has a ~ 9.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Flash has a ~ 8.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.3 % to ~ 64.08 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

Winning Gains
TRUE would gain ~ 96.68 % if they win, with a ~ 2.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 99.4 %
Maru would gain ~ 93.08 % if they win, with a ~ 5.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.91 % to ~ 99.99 %
Solar would gain ~ 91.97 % if they win, with a ~ 6.96 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 99.96 %
PartinG would gain ~ 87.92 % if they win, with a ~ 7.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.68 % to ~ 97.61 %
INnoVation would gain ~ 86.78 % if they win, with a ~ 11.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.08 % to ~ 99.87 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Gains] +

And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor.
We will be looking at 5 different scores.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.

+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +

Group A has a 1st place, a 2nd place, two 3rd places, and a 4th place
Group B has three 1st places, a 2nd place, and a 3rd place
Group C has three 2nd places, a 3rd place, and a 4th place
Group D has a 1st place, a 3rd place, and three 4th places

Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Rain, sOs, EffOrt, and Solar! Group A is our NEW 2nd place Group of Death with Zest, Soulkey, Reality, and Cure!

What do you think?



Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 26 5:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
4. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4625
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4575
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4425
   
7. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3625
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
9. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 98.17 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
   
10. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 94.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
11. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 92.63 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
12. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 68.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
13. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 64.1 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
14. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 60.2 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
15. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 56.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 36.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
17. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 31.81 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
18. viOLet, is at ~ 29.09 %, Min WCS Points: 2150
    
19. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 20.32 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
20. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 16.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
    
21. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 14.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1650
    
22. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 12.53 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
23. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 11.38 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
24. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 9.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1200
    
25. YoDa, is at ~ 9.41 %, Min WCS Points: 875
    

WCS Point Cutoffs - I simplified the WCS Point Cutoffs view a bit. Now it only shows 7 different points: the highest points with 0% chances, the lowest points with better than 0% chances, 2500 points, the points closest to 50% chances, 3000 points, the highest points with less than 100% chances, and the lowest points with 100% chances. You can still click "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to show more.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Biggest Winners Since 4 Days Ago
viOLet went up by ~ 17.85 %, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 29.08 %
herO went up by ~ 10.02 %, going from ~ 45.97 % to ~ 55.99 %
MMA went up by ~ 8.31 %, going from ~ 8.31 % to ~ 16.63 %
Life went up by ~ 5.56 %, going from ~ 62.67 % to ~ 68.23 %
YoDa went up by ~ 3.28 %, going from ~ 6.15 % to ~ 9.42 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +

Biggest Losers Since 4 Days Ago
Bunny went down by ~ 13.8 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 14.74 %
First went down by ~ 6.4 %, going from ~ 6.46 % to ~ 0.06 %
Snute went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 16.14 % to ~ 11.38 %
Scarlett went down by ~ 2.89 %, going from ~ 23.22 % to ~ 20.33 %
Pigbaby went down by ~ 2.35 %, going from ~ 39.21 % to ~ 36.86 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +

GSL Code S Round of 16 Group Previews
Starts in
Soulkey must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Zest, Soulkey, Cure, Reality in GSL S3…] +

Starts in
INnoVation must win this!
PartinG must win this!
Maru must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [INnoVation, PartinG, Maru, Stats in GS…] +

Starts in
Solar must win this!
EffOrt has the #1 headband!
sOs has the #2 headband!
This is a match for the #1 headband!
+ Show Spoiler [Rain, sOs, Solar, EffOrt in GSL S3 Cod…] +

Starts in
Flash must win this!
DongRaeGu must win this!
TRUE must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Flash, soO, DongRaeGu, TRUE in GSL S3…] +

And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor.
We will be looking at 5 different scores.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.

+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +

Group A has a 2nd place, two 3 places, and a 4th place
Group B has three 1st places, a 2nd place, and a 4th place
Group C has three 2nd places, a 3rd place, and a 4th place
Group D has two 1st places, a 3rd place, and two 4th places

Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Rain, sOs, EffOrt, and Solar! Group D is our 2nd place Group of Death with DongRaeGu, Flash, soO, and TRUE!

What do you think?



Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Aug 25 1:50am GMT (GMT+00:00) Red Bull Detroit Finished!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
   
4. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4625
   
5. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4575
   
6. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4425
   
7. Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3625
   
8. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
9. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 98.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
   
10. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 95.15 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
11. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 92.82 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
12. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 70.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
13. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 64.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
14. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 60.7 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
15. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 44.64 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 37.43 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
17. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 31.95 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
18. viOLet, is at ~ 30.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2150
    
19. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 20.68 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
20. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 16.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
    
21. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 14.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1650
    
22. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 13.6 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
23. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 11.98 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
24. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 9.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1200
    
25. YoDa, is at ~ 9.46 %, Min WCS Points: 875
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Biggest Winners
viOLet went up by ~ 19.26 %, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 30.5 %
MMA went up by ~ 8.51 %, going from ~ 8.31 % to ~ 16.82 %
Life went up by ~ 8.14 %, going from ~ 62.67 % to ~ 70.8 %
YoDa went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 6.15 % to ~ 9.46 %
DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.53 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +

Biggest Losers
Bunny went down by ~ 13.79 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 14.74 %
First went down by ~ 6.4 %, going from ~ 6.46 % to ~ 0.06 %
Snute went down by ~ 4.16 %, going from ~ 16.14 % to ~ 11.98 %
Scarlett went down by ~ 2.54 %, going from ~ 23.22 % to ~ 20.68 %
MajOr went down by ~ 2.11 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 3.42 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +

Winning Chances
Rain has a ~ 11.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 31.81 % to ~ 99.99 %
INnoVation has a ~ 11.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.53 % to ~ 99.87 %
sOs has a ~ 9.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.64 % to ~ 100 %
Zest has a ~ 9.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Flash has a ~ 8.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.24 % to ~ 64.36 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +

Winning Gains
TRUE would gain ~ 96.69 % if they win, with a ~ 2.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.75 % to ~ 99.43 %
Maru would gain ~ 92.82 % if they win, with a ~ 5.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.16 % to ~ 99.99 %
Solar would gain ~ 92.31 % if they win, with a ~ 6.63 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.64 % to ~ 99.96 %
PartinG would gain ~ 87.93 % if they win, with a ~ 7.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.82 % to ~ 97.75 %
INnoVation would gain ~ 87.34 % if they win, with a ~ 11.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.53 % to ~ 99.87 %
+ Show Spoiler [More Winning Gains] +

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Aug 14 4:05am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225
   
4. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4125
   
5. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
8. Zest (KT), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275
   
9. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 98.28 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
   
10. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 95.09 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
11. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 95.08 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
12. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 70.49 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
13. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 62.41 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
14. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 48.54 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
15. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 48.35 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
16. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 43.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
17. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 42.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
18. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 24.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2000
    
19. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 17.56 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
20. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 16.02 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    
21. Maru (Jinair), is at ~ 12.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    
22. viOLet, is at ~ 11.11 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
23. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 10.61 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
    
24. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 10.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
25. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 9.85 %, Min WCS Points: 1875
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Biggest winners and losers
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here are the previews for the round of 16 groups. No countdowns since they aren't scheduled yet.

HerO must win this!
This match is important for viOLet!
This match is important for Scarlett!
+ Show Spoiler [Scarlett, HerO, viOLet, iaguz in WCS A…] +

This match is important for Pigbaby!
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, HyuN, Jaedong, Pigbaby in WCS A…] +

Jim must win this!
HuK must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Jim, Check, HuK in WCS AM S3 P…] +

MajOr must win this!
Heart must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Polt, MajOr, Heart, neeb in WCS AM S3…] +

Winning Chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Who would gain the most by winning WCS AM
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +

And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. This one seems obvious, but keep in mind this is the group of death for Blizzcon Chances, so the effects on Blizzcon Chances are a big factor here, and if you're already at 100% chances then you can't go up or down.
We will be looking at 5 different scores.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.

+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +

Group A has a 1st place, a 2nd place, a 3rd place, and two 4th places
Group B has four 1st places, and a 2nd place
Group C has a 2nd place, a 3rd place, and three 4th places
Group D has two 2nd places, and three 3rd places

Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to TaeJa, HyuN, Jaedong, and Pigbaby! Group A is our 2nd place Group of Death with viOLet, HerO, Scarlett, and iaguz, look out for this group too as it has by far the biggest effect on the Blizzcon Chances!

What do you think?



Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Aug 13 8:45pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Toronto Open Bracket Players!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225
   
4. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4125
   
5. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3500
   
8. Zest (KT), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275
   
9. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 98.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
   
10. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 95.03 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
11. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 94.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
12. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 70.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
13. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 61.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
14. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 48.07 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
15. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 48.02 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 47.62 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
17. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 42.56 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
18. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 24.1 %, Min WCS Points: 2000
    
19. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 17.48 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
20. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 16.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    
21. Maru (Jinair), is at ~ 12.16 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    
22. viOLet, is at ~ 11.21 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
23. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 10.53 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
    
24. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 10.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
25. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 9.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1875
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Biggest winners and losers
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +


IEM Toronto Open Bracket Winning Chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Who would gain the most by winning IEM Toronto Open Bracket.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +


IEM Toronto Winning Chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Who would gain the most by winning IEM Toronto.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 12 4:35pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM and Red Bull Updates!
In this update I added the results of the IEM Toronto qualifiers with Zest and Flash qualifying, added Red Bull Detroit replacing Placeholder Tournament 3, and I added the seed for the winner of Red Bull Detroit to Red Bull Washington.

Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
   
2. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225
   
4. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075
   
5. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3500
   
8. Zest (KT), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275
   
9. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 98.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
   
10. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 95.41 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
    
11. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 95.17 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
12. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 69.93 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
13. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 63.7 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
14. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 50.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
15. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 50.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 46.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
17. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 44.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
    
18. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 18.78 %, Min WCS Points: 2000
    
19. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 17.92 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
20. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 13.27 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    
21. viOLet, is at ~ 12.02 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
    
22. Maru (Jinair), is at ~ 10.65 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    
23. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 10.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
24. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 10.08 %, Min WCS Points: 1875
    
25. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 9.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Biggest winners and losers
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +
These changes had some big effects, probably mostly because of the removal of Placeholder Tournament 3, we are now down to just 2 placeholder tournaments.

IEM Toronto Winning Chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Who would gain the most by winning IEM Toronto.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +

Red Bull Detroit Winning Chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Who would gain the most by winning IEM Toronto.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +

Red Bull Washington Winning Chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Who would gain the most by winning Red Bull Washington
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Aug 06 5:35pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Ro32 Previews and Group of Death Analysis!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
   
2. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4875
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225
   
4. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075
   
5. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
   
8. Zest (KT), is at ~ 99.93 %, Min WCS Points: 3150
   
9. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 96.41 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
   
10. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 96.27 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
    
11. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 94.78 %, Min WCS Points: 2700
    
12. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 74.3 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
13. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 70.42 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
14. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 54.32 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
15. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 52.73 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 50.12 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
17. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 21.46 %, Min WCS Points: 2000
    
18. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 20.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1300
    
19. Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 13.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
    
20. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 13.67 %, Min WCS Points: 1325
    
21. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 12.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1100
    
22. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 11.96 %, Min WCS Points: 1875
    
23. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 10.57 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
24. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 9.92 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
25. Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 9.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Biggest winners and losers
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Also notice that we had some headband trades in GSL, with Effort taking the #2 headband from Classic, and then taking the #1 headband from sOs in the first ever #1 vs #2 match! Currently Effort holds the #1 headband, and sOs holds the #2 headband, hopefully we will see another #1 vs #2 match this year.

Here are the WCS EU round of 32 previews.
Starts in
Golden must win this!
Dayshi must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Golden, Dayshi, Nerchio, KrasS in WCS…] +

Starts in
Patience must win this!
This match is important for Snute!
+ Show Spoiler [StarDust, Snute, Patience, Miniraser i…] +

Starts in
First must win this!
YoDa must win this!
This match is important for MMA!
+ Show Spoiler [First, MMA, YoDa, ShoWTimE in WCS EU S…] +

Starts in
Welmu must win this!
TLO must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Welmu, TLO, uThermal, LiveZerg in WCS…] +

Starts in
VortiX must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [jjakji, VortiX, Kas, Harstem in WCS EU…] +

Starts in
Bunny must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Bunny, San, MorroW, ToD in WCS EU S3 P…] +

Starts in
ForGG must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [ForGG, Bly, MaNa, BlinG in WCS EU S3 P…] +

Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MC, Happy, Grubby, Serral in WCS EU S3…] +

Winning Chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Who would gain the most by winning.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +

And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor.
We will be looking at 5 different scores.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.

+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +

Group A has a 4th place
Group B has a 1st place, and 4 2nd places
Group C has three 1st places, and a 3rd place
Group D has no top 4 placings
Group E has three 3rd places, and a 4th place
Group F has a 1st place, a 2nd place, and two 4th places
Group G has no top 4 placings
Group H has a 3rd place, and a 4th place

Group C is our Group of Death! Congrats to MMA, First, YoDa, and ShoWTimE! Group B wins the 2nd place Group of Death with Snute, StarDust, Miniraser, and Patience.

What do you think?


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jul 30 4:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Ro32 Previews and Group of Death Analysis!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4725
   
2. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4375
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225
   
4. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075
   
5. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
   
8. Zest (KT), is at ~ 99.92 %, Min WCS Points: 3150
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 95.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2600
   
10. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 89.79 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
11. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 89.62 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
12. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 88.77 %, Min WCS Points: 2600
    
13. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 73.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
14. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 54.91 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
15. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 54.58 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 44.83 %, Min WCS Points: 2100
    
17. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 21.57 %, Min WCS Points: 1625
    
18. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 15.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1175
    
19. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 14.4 %, Min WCS Points: 1625
    
20. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 14.01 %, Min WCS Points: 1325
    
21. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 12.81 %, Min WCS Points: 1100
    
22. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 10.73 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
23. Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 10.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
    
24. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 10.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
25. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 9.08 %, Min WCS Points: 1850
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Here are the GSL Round of 32 previews. With sOs and Classic in the same group, we might finally see a #1 vs #2 headband match!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [sOs, Classic, EffOrt, Shine in GSL S3…] +

Starts in
INnoVation must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [INnoVation, ParalyzE, Cure, MyuNgSiK i…] +

Starts in
Maru must win this!
Trap must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Maru, Trap, Reality, Hush in GSL S3 Co…] +

Starts in
Soulkey must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Soulkey, Bbyong, Stats, Terminator in…] +

Starts in
Rain must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Zest, Rain, Hurricane, Rogue in GSL S3…] +

Starts in
DongRaeGu must win this!
This match is important for soO!
+ Show Spoiler [DongRaeGu, soO, Trust, Stork in GSL S3…] +

Starts in
PartinG must win this!
Dear must win this!
TRUE must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [PartinG, Dear, TY, TRUE in GSL S3 Code S] +

Starts in
Solar must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Solar, Flash, Dark, Avenge in GSL S3 C…] +

Winning Chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Who would gain the most by winning.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +

And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor.
We will be looking at 5 different scores.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.

+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +

Group A has one 1st place, one 2nd place, one 3rd place, and one 4th place
Group B has two 4th places
Group C has no top 4 placings
Group D has no top 4 placings
Group E has one 1st place, and three 2nd places
Group F has one 2nd place, one 3rd place, and one 4th place
Group G has three 1st places, one 3rd place, and one 4th place
Group H has two 3rd places

Group G is our Group of Death! Congrats to Parting, TY, TRUE, and Dear! Group E wins the 2nd place Group of Death with Rain, Hurricane, Zest, and Rogue.

What do you think?



Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Friday, Jul 25 8:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Ro32 Previews and Group of Death Analysis!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4725
   
2. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4275
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225
   
4. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075
   
5. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
   
8. Zest (KT), is at ~ 99.94 %, Min WCS Points: 3150
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 91.42 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
   
10. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 89.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
11. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 89.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
12. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 89.21 %, Min WCS Points: 2600
    
13. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 74.16 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
14. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 55.47 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
15. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 55.21 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 45.52 %, Min WCS Points: 2100
    
17. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 23.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1625
    
18. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 16.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1175
    
19. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 13.53 %, Min WCS Points: 1100
    
20. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 13.16 %, Min WCS Points: 1325
    
21. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 10.85 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
22. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 10.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
23. HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 9.41 %, Min WCS Points: 1850
    
24. Dear, is at ~ 9.09 %, Min WCS Points: 1475
    
25. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 8.25 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

WCS AM Season 3 Premier previews.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, Arthur, neeb, Guitarcheese in WC…] +

Starts in
Alicia must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Alicia, Jim, iaguz, NesTea in WCS AM S…] +

Starts in
Oz must win this!
This match is important for Jaedong!
+ Show Spoiler [Polt, Jaedong, Oz, MacSed in WCS AM S3…] +

Starts in
This match is important for Pigbaby!
+ Show Spoiler [Pigbaby, Check, Illusion, Shana in WCS…] +

Starts in
viOLet must win this!
Revival must win this!
HuK must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [viOLet, Revival, HuK, Arium in WCS AM…] +

Starts in
Heart must win this!
This match is important for Scarlett!
+ Show Spoiler [Scarlett, Heart, Seed, TooDming in WCS…] +

Starts in
HerO must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, HerO, XiGua, hendralisk in WCS…] +

Starts in
MajOr must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, MajOr, puCK, Slam in WCS AM S3…] +

WCS AM Season 3 Premier winning chances
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

WCS AM Season 3 Premier who would gain the most by winning
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +

And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor.
We will be looking at 5 different scores.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.

+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +

Group A has a 3rd and a 4th place
Group B has no top 4 places
Group C has three 1sts, one 2nd, and one 3rd place
Group D has a 1st place
Group E has no top 4 places
Group F has three 2nds, and a 4th place
Group G has a 1st, a 2nd, two 3rds, and a 4th place
Group H has a 3rd and two 4th places

Group C is our Group of Death! Congrats to Polt, Jaedong, Oz, and MacSed! Group G wins the 2nd place Group of Death with TaeJa, HerO, XiGua, and hendralisk.

What do you think?


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 21 1:40am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Challenger Previews!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4725
   
2. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4275
   
3. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225
   
4. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075
   
5. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
   
8. Zest (KT), is at ~ 99.91 %, Min WCS Points: 3150
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 90.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
   
10. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 89.65 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
11. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 86.34 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
12. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 84.21 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
13. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 80.55 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
    
14. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 71.91 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
15. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 55.61 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 43.17 %, Min WCS Points: 2100
    
17. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 21.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1625
    
18. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 13.87 %, Min WCS Points: 1100
    
19. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 12.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
20. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 12.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1125
    
21. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 10.4 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
22. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 9.96 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
23. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 8.67 %, Min WCS Points: 1275
    
24. Dear, is at ~ 8.64 %, Min WCS Points: 1475
    
25. Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 8.03 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

WCS AM S3 Challenger previews
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HuK, phog in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [CranK, Shana in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [hendralisk, ViBE in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Suppy, Guitarcheese in WCS AM S3 Chall…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bails, neeb in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Ryung, MacSed in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Arium, Courage in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MaSa, Slam in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
This match is important for Jaedong!
+ Show Spoiler [KingKong, Jaedong in WCS AM S3 Challen…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Seed, Top in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [qxc, iaguz in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Illusion, Gemini in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HerO, Ian in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Jim, Believe in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [puCK, Balloon in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +
Starts in
Scarlett must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [Scarlett, Sen in WCS AM S3 Challenger] +

WCS EU S3 Challenger starts in
I'll post the previews for EU Challenger when we get closer to it, but you can see them now on the website.


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Saturday, Jul 19 1:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM and Dreamhack Checkup!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.

1. MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350
   
2. HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4150
   
3. San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075
   
4. StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3975
   
5. TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3525
   
6. Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
   
7. Bomber, is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3250
   
8. Zest (KT), is at ~ 99.93 %, Min WCS Points: 3150
   
9. jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 90.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
   
10. Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 88.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
    
11. Life (StarTale), is at ~ 84.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2750
    
12. sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 83.35 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
    
13. Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 83.02 %, Min WCS Points: 2425
    
14. herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 69.95 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
    
15. soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 55.07 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
    
16. Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 42.16 %, Min WCS Points: 2100
    
17. Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 28.7 %, Min WCS Points: 1625
    
18. ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 13.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
19. PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 13.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1100
    
20. INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 12.57 %, Min WCS Points: 1275
    
21. Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 11.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1125
    
22. MMA (Acer), is at ~ 11.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1575
    
23. Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 9.64 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
    
24. Dear, is at ~ 8.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1475
    
25. VortiX (Millenium), is at ~ 7.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1225
    

WCS Point Cutoffs
+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers over the past 4 days. Keep in mind this also includes WCS AM and EU qualifiers, the addition of Red Bull Washington with its seeds, and Code A matches.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

IEM Quarterfinals previews
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Zest in IEM Shenzhen] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Jaedong, Snute in IEM Shenzhen] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [San, Jim in IEM Shenzhen] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [INnoVation, Solar in IEM Shenzhen] +

IEM winning chances
+ Show Spoiler [IEM Winning Chances] +

DreamHack round of 16 previews
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [First, Starbuck in DreamHack Valencia] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Stephano, Sacsri in DreamHack Valencia] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [StarDust, YoDa in DreamHack Valencia] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, Revolver in DreamHack Valencia] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Golden, Nerchio in DreamHack Valencia] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Leenock, Majestic in DreamHack Valencia] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [VortiX, MaNa in DreamHack Valencia] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MC, Bomber in DreamHack Valencia] +

DreamHack winning chances
+ Show Spoiler [DreamHack Winning Chances] +


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 14 9:55pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Shenzhen Open Bracket, TWOP, and WCS Qualifiers Updated!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from this update.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Winning Chances for IEM Shenzhen Open Brackets, 4 players qualify.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances IEM Open Brackets] +

Winning Chances for IEM Shenzhen.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances IEM] +

Winning chances for Taiwan eSports Open
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances TWOP] +

IEM Shenzhen Open Brackets page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=50
IEM Shenzhen page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=45
TWOP page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=29

Make sure to check out the changes I talked about in the previous post if you missed it.

Also make sure you don't miss the first day of Code A!
Starts in
PartinG must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [PartinG, Sleep, Avenge, Sora in GSL S3…] +
Starts in
DongRaeGu must win this!
+ Show Spoiler [DongRaeGu, TurN, MyuNgSiK, Panic in GS…] +


Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 14 5:35am GMT (GMT+00:00) Red Bull Atlanta Completed and Many Changes!
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from this update.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

I've also made some changes to the website and the simulator.
First change is I have added must win matches highlights. A must win match is a match where a player's Blizzcon Chances would fall extremely low if they were to lose the match, and they must also have a decent Blizzcon Chance to start with. Must win matches are highlighted with a bright red border around them, and text like this
:kr: INnoVation must win this!.

There is also a page that shows all the must win upcoming matches, and lists the players that must win as well as some other info about them. You can find a link to the must win matches page under the players table on the front page, or just click here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=mustwins

To go along with must win matches, I have tweaked the display of upcoming matches that have big effects. These important matches are highlighted with a pink or red border, and have text like this
This match is important for sOs!
This match is important for herO!

On the players tables and tooltips I have replaced Mode WCS Points with Median WCS Points. I think now it's becoming clear that Median WCS Points are more valuable.

I also made a bunch of changes to how events are found and displayed. You can see events at the bottom of player pages, tournament pages, and player set pages. Here are some example links that have an events table at the bottom.
Jaedong http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=73
Non-Koreans http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player_set&countries=nonkorean
Terrans http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player_set&races=t
GSL Code S http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=20

I have greatly reduced redundant events. This means that where before you would see an event for [winning Code A], [winning Code S], and [winning Code A AND winning Code S], now it only shows the separate 2 events. Since the player cannot win Code S without winning Code A, the grouped together event is redundant.

I tweaked the way events are scored (for the sorting) so that the likeliness of the event has less of an impact on its score. This means that a rare 2nd place that helps the player a lot will probably show up higher than an expected 16th place with a small change to their Blizzcon Chances.

I also greatly increased the number of events that are counted for and displayed for each player. Currently there are 58 for Jaedong and 50 for Maru! This is a huge increase over before where it was maybe 10 to 15 for each player.

And lastly I added "Or Events". An Or Event is when 2 different events of the same tournament and player are combined as in "Jaedong gets 4th or 8th in WCS AM S3 Premier". These will only happen with adjacent placings, so you will not see "1st or 16th".
I might make it so Or Events could be 3 placings combined, like "Maru gets 4th, 8th, or 16th in GSL".

Also try out the Search filter on events tables. The Search box is at the top of the table. Try typing in player names, tournament names, placings like "1st" or "4th". Also there are some special keywords like "or", "simple", "multiple", "other" (meaning something another player does affects my chances), "single", "double", and "triple".

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jul 08 7:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Code A Previews and Group of Death!
Also added hendralisk to Red Bull Atlanta.

Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from this update.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

+ Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +

Code A previews.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [INnoVation, Hurricane, hyvaa, Ruin in…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [DongRaeGu, TurN, MyuNgSiK, Panic in GS…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Dark, RagnaroK, Billowy, Dear in GSL S…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Rain, Hydra, Impact, Cure in GSL S3 Co…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TY, ByuL, sKyHigh, Shine in GSL S3 Cod…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Symbol, Flash, TAiLS, Hush in GSL S3 C…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [PartinG, Sleep, Avenge, Sora in GSL S3…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [RorO, aLive, Bbyong, Trap in GSL S3 Co…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Super, sOs, herO, Reality in GSL S3 Co…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Life, Stats, Bunny, Rogue in GSL S3 Co…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Leenock, SuperNova, EffOrt, Terminator…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [YongHwa, Stork, FanTaSy, Trust in GSL…] +

And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.

+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +

I has 4 1st places
J has 2 2nd places
G has 1 2nd place, 1 3rd place, and 1 4th place
D has 1 2nd place, 1 3rd place, and 1 4th place
A has 2 3rd places
C has 1 4th place
F has 1 4th place

Group I is our Group of Death winning in all 4 of our categories! Congrats to Super, sOs, herO, and Reality! For 2nd place Group of Death it looks like a close battle between Groups J, D, and G, but I'm giving the nod to Group J.

What do you think?


Code A page on WCS Predictor http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=21

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jul 08 2:45am GMT (GMT+00:00) More Tournaments and Confirmed Players!
Added confirmed players for DreamHack Valencia
Added Red Bull Atlanta
Added IEM Shenzhen
Added Gfinity G3

Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from these changes
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Tournament pages (tournaments that don't have locked-in player lists have many possible champions, thus the top list of possible champions, sorted by Blizzcon Chances, can be confusing. Look towards the bottom of the tournament page to see the winning chances)
Red Bull Atlanta http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=44
IEM Shenzhen http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=45
Dreamhack Valencia http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=35
Gfinity G3 http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=46

Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 07 3:25am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Season 2 Completed!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from this weekend.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Pigbaby rising so much so quickly into the top 16 has made it tougher for everyone that is now below him.

With Protoss taking the triple crown, they now hold ~ 50.44 % of the chances, breaking over the 50% mark for the first time in months. Terran is at ~ 26.91 % and Zerg is at ~ 22.65 %.

The hopes of getting at least 1 foreigner into Blizzcon is now at ~ 32.63 %, and getting 2 or more is at ~ 2.77 % chances.

Also I have finally added WCS Point Cutoffs to the front page! This shows the % chances that the 16th ranked player at the end of the year has X many points or less.
+ Show Spoiler [Point Cutoffs] +
So this means that ~ 59.14 % of the time, the 16th ranked player ends up with 2,700 or less WCS Points. It also says that 2,150 points is never enough to qualify in these simulations, and 3,550 points is always enough in these simulations. If you go on the website, you can click on "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to see even more details.

Remember the check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Jul 06 8:55pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU S2 Completed and WCS AM Semifinals Previews!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Heart in WCS AM S2 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, Pigbaby in WCS AM S2 Premier] +

+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Consequences of each player winning WCS AM Season 2.
+ Show Spoiler [Hyun Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [Heart Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [Pigbaby Winning] +

WCS AM page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=15

Remember the check the website for much more frequent updates!
http://sc2.4ever.tv
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Jul 06 5:15am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Semifinals!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from the quarterfinals.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

The chances of having 1+ foreigners qualify for Blizzcon went from ~ 54.91 % down to ~ 36.48 %, and the chances of having 2+ foreigners qualify went from ~ 12.03 % down to ~ 3.97 %.
Snute is the new top foreign hope, with ~ 8.35 % chances, after Vortix fell from ~ 25.52 % down to ~ 7.36 %, and Welmu fell from ~ 12.27 % down to ~ 3.13 %.

The previews for the WCS EU semifinals.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [San, Golden in WCS EU S2 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [ForGG, StarDust in WCS EU S2 Premier] +

+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Consequences for each player winning WCS EU Season 2.
+ Show Spoiler [San Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [StarDust Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [ForGG Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [Golden Winning] +

WCS EU page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=15


Previews for the WCS AM Semifinals.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Heart in WCS AM S2 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, Pigbaby in WCS AM S2 Premier] +

+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Consequences for each player winning WCS AM Season 2.
+ Show Spoiler [Hyun Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [Heart Winning] +
+ Show Spoiler [Pigbaby Winning] +

WCS AM page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=15

-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Jun 23 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the WCS AM Round of 16 Previews!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Heart, Oz, XiGua, Pigbaby in WCS AM S2…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, NesTea, Alicia, Revival in WCS A…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Polt, TooDming, Check in WCS A…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, viOLet, MajOr, Arthur in WCS AM…] +

And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. I did this before but I have to redo it now since the groups were redrawn.
This time we will be looking at 5 different scores instead of just the normal 3.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Affects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.

+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +

Group A has 4 4th places and a 3rd place.
Group B has 3 3rd places, 1 4th place, and 1 2nd place.
Group C has both of the other 2 1st places and 2 2nd places and also a 3rd place.
Group D has 3 1st places and 2 2nd places in these 5 rankings.

Group D is our Group of Death barely beating out Group C! Congrats to TaeJa, viOLet, MajOr, and Arthur!

What do you think?


Also don't forget about the GSL Finals!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [soO, Classic in GSL S2 Code S] +

-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jun 17 5:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Summer in Review!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from the completion of DreamHack
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Also I set the confirmed MLG open bracket players, here are the biggest winners and losers from that. (I have not yet programmed in the full format so the previews will come later.)
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here are the previews for the GSL Semifinals!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Maru, Classic in GSL S2 Code S] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [soO, TRUE in GSL S2 Code S] +

Also I added tournament pages! You can now click on a tournament name to see the players who have at least a small chance of winning the tournament, upcoming matches for the tournament, the winning chances, and also who would gain the most from winning the tournament. Here are a few example pages.

MLG Anaheim http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=43
GSL S2 Code S http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=13
GSL S3 Code S http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=20
WCS AM S2 Premier http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=15

I hope to improve the tournament pages more in the future, along with the pages for races, countries, teams, and favorite players.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Jun 12 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Summer Group Stage 2 Previews!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 By Chances] +

Here are the DreamHack Summer Group Stage 2 previews. These previews only show the stats for the 2 players set in their group, but they are counting the players from group stage 1 too.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Scarlett, Harstem in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, HuK in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [First, FireCake in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MC, Oz in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [ForGG, TLO in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Patience, Zanster in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Snute, uThermal in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [San, Balloon in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Socke in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Tefel, Bunny in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [StarDust, Serral in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MMA, ShoWTimE in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [jjakji, DeMusliM in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Jaedong, Golden in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [YoDa, Dayshi in DreamHack Summer] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HerO, MaNa in DreamHack Summer] +

And here are the chances to win DreamHack Summer.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Jun 08 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) HomeStory Cup 9 review!
TaeJa finally puts the first Terran icon on the graphs!

Here's the current top 25 by chances for qualifying to Blizzcon
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

We now have 7 players with over 90% chances! MC, HyuN, Zest, San, Polt, TaeJa, and Life!
And then over 50% we have jjakji, CJ herO, StarDust, and sOs! Finishing off the current top 16 in chances we have Jaedong, soO, Snute, Bomber, and ForGG.

MC is at a monstrous minimum WCS Points of 3,800, mode of 4,750, and a median of 4,875! MC has been over 99.99% since April 13th!

Here are the biggest winners and losers since Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00)
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Team Liquid is catching up to mYinsanity for the #1 team spot, with Liquid's ~ 9.38% vs mYinsanity's ~ 9.82%. On Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00) it was ~ 9.75% for mYinsanity and ~ 8.49% for Team Liquid.

Terran with ~ 28.53% is catching up to Zerg's ~ 28.73%, while Protoss still holds a strong lead at ~ 42.74%. On Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00) it was at ~ 26.95% T, ~ 29.76% Z, and ~ 43.28% P.

Make sure to check out the upcoming matches section on the website, I see lots of red and pink upcoming matches! Here is the next one, WCS EU Ro16 Group A, with BOTH top foreign hopes Snute and Vortix, along with Harstem and ForGG!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [ForGG, VortiX, Snute, Harstem in WCS E…] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Jun 05 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Premier Round of 16 set and HomeStory Cup 9 previews!
The round of 16 groups for WCS AM Premier have been set! Time for the usual with ro16 Premier groups - overview, previews, and then analysis of Group of Death! Also HomeStory Cup 9 previews!
Here's the current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers of the WCS AM ro16 group drawings.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here are the previews for the WCS AM ro16 groups.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [viOLet, NesTea, Heart, XiGua in WCS AM…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, Oz, Alicia, Revival in WCS AM S2…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Arthur, Check, Pigbaby in WCS…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Polt, TooDming, MajOr in WCS AM…] +

Here are the winning chances for WCS AM.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Winning Chances] +

Here are the previews for HomeStory Cup 9.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MMA, TLO, BlinG, iNcontroL in HomeStor…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [jjakji, NightEnD, TargA, HeRoMaRinE in…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MC, Harstem, Dayshi, FireCake in HomeS…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Snute, DeMusliM, White-Ra, Stork in Ho…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, ToD, Ret, Balloon in HomeStory…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [YoDa, MaNa, Jaedong, Socke in HomeStor…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Stephano, HasuObs, Bunny, Armani in Ho…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Scarlett, roof, Patience in Hom…] +

Here are the winning chances for HomeStory Cup 9.
+ Show Spoiler [HSC9 Winning Chances] +

Now let's look at some stats to figure out the group of death. We will look at 3 different scores the same way we did the GSL and WCS EU ro16 analysis.
WCS AM Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.

+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Chances Scores] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +

So in 2/3 of our metrics we have Group B being the group of death, and it's 2nd place in the other metric, Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Alicia, Revival, HyuN, and Oz!
Our 2nd place Group of Death is Group D which got 1st place in Blizzcon Chances Score, as well as a 2nd placing in our 2 other metrics.

What do you think?


-----------------------

--------UPDATE Saturday, May 31 10:05pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Premier Round of 16 set!
The round of 16 groups for WCS EU Premier have been set! Time to do an overview, look at the previews, and do an analysis of the groups to determine the group of death!
Here's the current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from the WCS EU round of 16 group drawings.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here are the previews for the WCS EU ro16 groups. Notice Group C has the top 2 Foreign Hopes in it, Snute and Vortix!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [First, MaNa, Golden, Grubby in WCS EU…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MC, YoDa, Welmu, ToD in WCS EU S2 Prem…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [ForGG, VortiX, Snute, Harstem in WCS E…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Nerchio, San, LiveZerg, StarDust in WC…] +

And here are the winning chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Now let's look at some stats to figure out the group of death. We will look at 3 different scores the same way we did the GSL ro16 analysis.
WCS EU Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.

+ Show Spoiler [WCS EU Chances Scores] +
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +

So in 2/3 of our metrics we have Group D being the group of death, and it's 2nd place in the other metric, Group D is our Group of Death! Congrats to LiveZerg, San, Nerchio, and StarDust!
Our 2nd place Group of Death is Group C which got huge 1st place in Blizzcon Chances Lost Score, as well as a 2nd and a 3rd placing in our metrics.

What do you think?


Also check out the new up and down arrows next to players' chances on the lists, the top of the page says when it is comparing to, which is the same comparison that Biggest Winners and Biggest Losers use. Mouse over the arrows to see the difference.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Friday, May 30 10:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00) HomeStory Cup 9 and Dreamhack Summer player lists set!
Here's the current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

I added the player list for HomeStory Cup 9 yesterday but wasn't able to post about it. Here are the biggest winners and losers from the HomeStory Cup 9 player list. Remember that this is slightly old info and their chances are not the same anymore, so just check out how their chances changed.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers with the addition of the Dreamhack Summer player list. These numbers are current.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

And here are the current winning chances for HomeStory Cup 9.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Current winning chances for DreamHack Summer.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Also here's a tip if you want to see what your favorite player needs to do at the next tournament. Just go on their page, go down to the events section, and use the search box to type in the name of the tournament. The events list will instantly be filtered down to just events that have to do with that tournament!
Here's an example screenshot of Jaedong for HomeStory Cup
+ Show Spoiler +

-----------------------

--------UPDATE Saturday, May 24 4:40am GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and GSL Code S Round of 16!
Here's the current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +

First let's look at the biggest winners and losers from adding the KeSPA Cup (after the Code S Ro32 was completed but before the Ro16 groups were set).
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

As is normal when adding a new big tournament, the players who have high Aligulac ratings relative to their chances get big boosts to their chances, while players with low Aligulac ratings relative to their chances take some losses.

For the KeSPA Cup's seeds for top 2 in Proleague, I just have it pick 2 from the current top 10 at random, and it does a random selection for the open qualifiers.

Here are the winning chances for the KeSPA Cup.
+ Show Spoiler [KeSPA Cup Winning Chances] +

Here are the biggest winners and losers from the GSL Code S Round of 16 group drawings.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here are all the Code S Round of 16 previews as they are now.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [PartinG, soO, Classic, herO in GSL S2…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Life, Rain, ParalyzE, Solar in GSL S2…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Maru, Dark, Stork, TRUE in GSL S2 Code S] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Soulkey, INnoVation, Zest, Shine in GS…] +

Here are the winning chances for Code S.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances Code S] +

Now let's try to figure out which is the group of death according to the stats!

Let's break it down into 2 different parts for each group: total chances to win Code S, and total chances to qualify for Blizzcon.
+ Show Spoiler [Total Chances to Win Code S] +
+ Show Spoiler [Total Chances to Qualify for Blizzcon] +
So in all 3 of the metrics we have Group A being the group of death! Congrats to Parting, Classic, herO, and soO! 2nd place goes to Group D, 3rd place to Group B, and 4th place goes to Group C.

-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, May 13 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EM and AM Premier Previews!
Here is the current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25] +
San moved down below Zest due to him forfeiting his spot in TeSL 4.

WCS EU Premier previews.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS EU Premier] +

WCS AM Premier previews.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Premier] +

Remaining Code S previews.
+ Show Spoiler [Code S] +

And I fixed a slight inconsistency in the rounding functions where the javascript was rounding up to 100% when the backend would never round up to 100% if it wasn't exactly 100% (out of the samples in the simulation). Remember, you can mouse over the %s on the website to see more accuracy.

Also, Protoss is still below 50%!
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, May 05 5:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) Lone Star Clash 3 and TeSL Season 3 Completed!
With this update, here are the biggest winners.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Snute went up because his Aligulac rating went up from the ULTRA Invitational, which did not give WCS Points.

Here are the biggest losers, most of these seem to just be because of Aligulac rating increases for WCS AM players like Jaedong, Polt, Bomber, and Violet.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25] +

Also, Protoss is still below 50%!
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Apr 27 11:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Dreamhack Bucharest Completed! Previews for ALL WCS REGIONS!
First let's look at the biggest changes since 4 days ago.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here is the current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25] +

Previews for Code S Round of 32. Note that Life now takes the #2 headband into the GSL, so sOs might finally be challenged for his #1 headband!
+ Show Spoiler [Code S Previews] +

Previews for WCS EU Challenger.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS EU Challenger] +

Previews for WCS AM Challenger.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Challenger] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Friday, Apr 25 6:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Dreamhack Bucharest Preview and GSL Global Championship Semifinals set!
GSL Global Championship Semifinals preview.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [soO, Zest in GSL Global Championship] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [PartinG, San in GSL Global Championship] +

GSL Global Championship winning chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +


Here are the winning chances for Dreamhack Bucharest. I don't yet have the groups set though, this is with the previously announced player list.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Apr 15 6:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Copenhagen Games Spring and 5 placeholder tournaments added, GSL Global Championship groups set!
Copenhagen Games Spring 2014 added to the simulation with the round of 32 groups set.
5 placeholder tournaments added to represent currently unannounced tournaments, filled with randomized players, with 750 WCS Points for the champion, 4000 WCS Points total each tournament (same as a Dreamhack or IEM).
GSL Global Championship Group Stage 1 set.

Current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25] +

Here are the biggest changes with this update.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Winning Chances for Copenhagen Games Spring
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +

Previews for Copenhagen Spring.
+ Show Spoiler [Copenhagen Previews] +

GSL Global Championship Previews.
+ Show Spoiler [GSL Global Championship Previews] +

Updated Code A Previews.
+ Show Spoiler [Code A Previews] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Monday, Apr 14 3:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Season 1 Completed!
Here are the changes in chances from the WCS EU and AM finals.
+ Show Spoiler [Results] +

And here is the current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25] +

Winning chances for WCS Season 2
+ Show Spoiler [GSL Global Championship] +
+ Show Spoiler [GSL Code S Season 2] +
+ Show Spoiler [WCS EU Premier Season 2] +
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Premier Season 2] +

I have also updated the bbcode generation to output not just the upcoming matches, but also the top 25, biggest winners and losers, and also tournament winning chances. Check that out here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?bbcode=1

And remember that I update the website much more often than I update this thread, the website is usually updated everyday when there are WCS matches.
Here are all the Code A previews as they are now.
+ Show Spoiler [Code A Previews] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Apr 13 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Finals Previews!
Results -
+ Show Spoiler [WCS EU Semifinals results] +

+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Semifinals results] +

Previews -
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MMA, MC in WCS EU S1 Premier] +

Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, Oz in WCS AM S1 Premier] +

We also see seemigly unrelated players such as Jaedong, Polt, sOs, and Liquid Hero losing around 0.5% to 1% with the results of these semifinals. I think this is mainly because of Jjakji and San being knocked out, which causes the WCS Points to be more spread out as opposed to a few guys at the top hoarding them all.
Jaedong went from ~ 25.12 % down to ~ 24.52 %
Polt went from ~ 93.34 % down to ~ 92.55 %
sOs went from ~ 97.55 % down to ~ 97.02 %
Liquid Hero went from ~ 43.54 % down to ~ 42.43 %

Also note that the winner of WCS AM takes the #2 headband into the GSL Global Championship, where it might fall into the hands of a GSL player so the #2 can finally challenge sOs for the #1!
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Apr 10 3:20pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Quarterfinals Previews!
WCS EU Quarterfinals previews -
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MC, StarDust in WCS EU S1 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [jjakji, VortiX in WCS EU S1 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MMA, Snute in WCS EU S1 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [San, Welmu in WCS EU S1 Premier] +

WCS EU Winning Chances -
+ Show Spoiler [WCS EU Winning Chances] +

WCS AM Quarterfinals previews -
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Alicia in WCS AM S1 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, HyuN in WCS AM S1 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Polt, Revival in WCS AM S1 Premier] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Oz, Arthur in WCS AM S1 Premier] +

WCS AM Winning Chances -
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Winning Chances] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Mar 26 3:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Season 2 Qualifiers Completed!
It seems that these qualifiers turned out well for the participants of WCS AM, with most of the AM Premier players seeing around an 0.8% increase in chances. This is due partly to the guarantee of strong players like Innovation, Flash, Super, and Rogue being locked into GSL instead of the rare possibility of them going to WCS AM. Also helping them is Byul forfeiting his spot in WCS AM Challenger to qualify for GSL. In fact, Byul is the only person that successfully qualified and yet his chances went down due to the stronger set of players in GSL. Byul is the #4 biggest loser in chances for this update, going down by ~ 4.09 %, from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 2.59 %. From the first GSL semifinal, Rain vs Zest, we see Zest went up by ~ 19.46 %, from ~ 53.57 % to ~ 73.03 %, while Rain went down by ~ 16.69 %, from ~ 60% to ~ 43.31 %.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +

Here are some previews for upcoming matches in WCS EU and the other GSL semifinal with Life vs soO. Make sure to check the website for updates on these previews, because results from 1 match can have big effects on other match previews.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [jjakji, Snute, Grubby, Dayshi in WCS E…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [BabyKnight, TLO, Welmu, StarDust in WC…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Life, soO in GSL S1 Code S] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Nerchio, MC, San, BlinG in WCS EU S1 P…] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Mar 26 12:15am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Semifinals and Season 2 Qualifiers Previews!
GSL Semifinals -
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Rain, Zest in GSL S1 Code S] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Life, soO in GSL S1 Code S] +

GSL Season 2 Qualifiers -
+ Show Spoiler [Top 50 Qualification Chances] +

Also the results of the WCS EU Group that was played today with Mvp, Bunny, MMA, and Vortix.
Vortix went from ~ 15.26% up to ~ 40.81 %
MMA went from ~ 24.02 % up to ~ 33 %
Mvp went from ~ 29.79 $ down to ~ 12.55 %
Bunny went from ~ 8.36 % down to ~ 3.83 %

Vortix is also now the top foreign hope!
VortiX ~ 5.52 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 40.78 % chance overall.
Snute ~ 2.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 21.40 % chance overall.
Welmu ~ 2.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.40 % chance overall.
Nerchio ~ 1.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.63 % chance overall.
NaNiwa ~ 1.11 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 11.31 % chance overall.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Mar 13 4:05am GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Katowice Open Bracket Preview and GSL Quarterfinals Preview!
I also made a slight change to the Possible Tournament Winners section.

IEM Katowice Predictions -
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Jaedong, scoobers in IEM Katowice Open…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [JYP, MaNa in IEM Katowice Open Bracket] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HasuObs, ParanOid in IEM Katowice Open…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Leenock, funkay in IEM Katowice Open B…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, Forte in IEM Katowice Open Bracket] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Nerchio, DieStar in IEM Katowice Open…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Tefel, uThermal in IEM Katowice Open B…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Dear, okai in IEM Katowice Open Bracket] +

+ Show Spoiler [IEM Katowice Winning Chances] +


GSL Quarterfinals Predictions -
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [sOs, Zest in GSL S1 Code S] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Rain, herO in GSL S1 Code S] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Life, Maru in GSL S1 Code S] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [PartinG, soO in GSL S1 Code S] +

+ Show Spoiler [GSL Winning Chances] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Tuesday, Mar 11 8:15pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Katowice World Championships Added!
Added IEM Katowice along with the open bracket and the full player listings for both. The brackets are not set yet for the round of 16, but they are set for the open bracket.
Right now the open bracket matches are not showing up in the upcoming matches highlight yet because they are unscheduled in Liquipedia, so WCS Predictor does not automatically show them. Later I will be able to manually put them in if they are still unscheduled.
Here are the players' chances for winning
+ Show Spoiler +

And don't forget about WCS AM and GSL today!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Polt, Illusion, Minigun, neeb in WCS A…] +
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [PartinG, Rain, Squirtle, Classic in GS…] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Friday, Mar 07 1:35am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Round of 16 set!
WCS EU Premier round of 16 has been set. Here are the group previews as they appear right now.

Group A Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Mvp, MMA, VortiX, Bunny in WCS EU S1 P…] +
Group B Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [jjakji, Snute, Grubby, Dayshi in WCS E…] +
Group C Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [BabyKnight, TLO, Welmu, StarDust in WC…] +
Group D Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Nerchio, MC, San, BlinG in WCS EU S1 P…] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Friday, Feb 28 5:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 set!
With the round of 16 groups set, everyone always asks which is the group of death. Let's see how the groups affected players' chances.
The biggest changes since the previous update, of course, comes from the players in the last group.
ParalyzE and Stats were both knocked out, with ParalyzE going from ~ 1.88% chances for the year down to ~ 0.67% and Stats from ~ 1.74% down to ~ 0.81% for the year.
The favorites, Curious and RorO, were the ones to advance, with Curious going from ~ 10.26% to ~ 13.72% and RorO going from ~ 6.33% to ~ 8.05%.

We can try to identify the group of death in terms of the changes in chances to win GSL Season 1.

+ Show Spoiler [Groups Analysis] +

So in terms of the change in chances, Group B players were hurt most by the group selections, but Group C has the highest total chances of winning Code S and also has all 4 players being hurt by the group selections. I'm going to give the edge to Group C and say it's the real group of death.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 26 5:15pm GMT (GMT+00:00) FULL YEAR SIMULATIONS!
Now simulating the full year, with WCS AM/EU/KR Seasons 1,2, and 3 with qualifiers. Also added TeSL Seasons 3 and 4 with qualifiers, and the TWOP (I kinda had to guess on some things for TWOP for now).
Here's a preview for tonight's WCS AM Premier group!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Jaedong, Arthur, Has in WCS AM…] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Feb 13 9:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Cologne round of 16 groups set!
With the open brackets completed, the IEM Cologne round of 16 groups have been set. Stardust now holds the #2 headband in Group C.
+ Show Spoiler [IEM Ro16 Predictions] +
+ Show Spoiler [GSL Ro32 Group D Predictions] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 12 12:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Cologne predictions and GSL Code S Group C completed!
IEM Cologne has been added to the upcoming matches highlights. San vs HasuObs is a match for the #2 headband!
+ Show Spoiler [IEM Predictions] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 12 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Premier ro32 groups set!
WCS EU Premier round of 32 groups have been set.
Zest went up by almost 6% over the previous update just because of the increase in his aligulac rating, especially vs Protoss, which should be the most important rating for GSL this season.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Feb 09 11:20pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Player List Finalized!
The IEM Cologne player list, groups, and open bracket have been finalized. Due to the simulation no longer needing to pull random players to fill unannounced slots for any tournament this greatly reduces the number of players with over 0% chances. Right now there are only 104 players with over 0% chances for season 1.

Last night I made a bunch of small changes.
+ Show Spoiler [changes] +
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Friday, Feb 07 2:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Challenger Completed, IEM Player List Updated!
Updated with WCS EU Challenger completed, and the current IEM Cologne player list. You can see the IEM update hurt foreign hopes a little bit. With his announcement of being at IEM, TLO now takes the spot for top foreign hope away from Naniwa. Also Classic and Polt seem to have gone down in chances due to the strong list of players now going to IEM, both losing over 6%.

Also with this update Protoss has surpassed the 50% mark on the summed percentages per race! Now at 51.6%.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Sunday, Feb 02 5:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Features!
After the completion of ASUS and IEM I added a few new features.

-Changed the foreigner hope graph to show #+ foreigners instead of # of foreigners. So now you see the chances for 1+ foreigners, 2+ foreigners, etc. I think this looks better than before. (Thanks KillerDucky!)

-Added flags on the probabilities graphs for players and foreigner hope to show big events that happened that could've changed the probabilities. Right now there are only flags for the completion of IEM and ASUS, but later I could even have events for me changing things like "Special Previously Unannounced Tournament 7 added to simulation".

-I added headband and upcoming matches info to the player pages.

-Also to the player pages, I added green and red dashes on their probability graphs to show the expected results of a win or loss in their next upcoming match. The size of the dash is relative to how probable the event is. See sOs for a good example.
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=110
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Saturday, Feb 01 10:20pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM and ASUS Completed!
With this update we finally have some reasonably secured top spots for the season, with San and CJ herO winning they both are at over 99.8% to be top 16 for season 1. San gets an additional bonus taking away the #2 headband, keeping it away from the GSL and sOs. San's next match will be against Elfi in WCS EU Challenger, with how his PvP is looking it seems likely that he will defend the #2 headband and move on to Premier league.

Also in this update, Protoss is nearing the 50% mark on the summed percentages graph, with 48.35%. Foreigners only lost a little bit of hope as the chance of at least 1 foreigner making the top 16 for the season went from 99.27% earlier today down to 98.77%.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Saturday, Feb 01 1:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM ro8 half completed, ASUS ro16 completed!
In this update we saw the first headband transfer, with Life beating Jaedong to take the #2 headband. We also see some big changes in chances looking at the biggest winners and losers sections. Dear, ForGG, StarDust, MC, and jjakji being the 5 biggest winners with gains over 13%, Dear gained a huge 28.95% after a tough group. The biggest losers are TaeJa, Bbyong, HerO, NaNiwa, and Solar losing about 12% to 19%, except TaeJa who lost 30.4%.

Keep an eye on the upcoming matches section as we have many important matches coming up this weekend (highlighted in pink or red), and another match for the #2 headband (highlighted in silver) where Life will be attempting to defend against San.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 31 8:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM ro16 completed,ASUS ro32 completed!
Look out for Jaedong's match at ASUS ROG, this is a match for the #2 headband! Can Jaedong continue to defend his #2 headband? Jaedong got the #2 headband for getting 2nd place at Blizzcon 2013. Whoever beats the #2 headband holder takes the #2 headband from them.
Here is the explanation of headbands that I posted before -
+ Show Spoiler [Headbands] +

With the disbanding of ESF, I'm thinking of changing the pie chart for teams to be categorized into Original KESPA, Original ESF, and Other. Currently it is categorized into KESPA, ESF, and Other. This will still be by team and not by player, so Innovation would count for Other not for Original KESPA, and Trap would count for Original ESF.

I'm also going to add a section for each tournament, to show the probabilities for each player to win it (thanks Yakikorosu!)
And I still need to add the WCS Points min/mode, and the event markers on the probability graphs.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 31 12:35am GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM Groups A and B Completed, WCS AM Premier Groups Set, GSL Code S Groups Set! Also a new font!
ASUS ROG is counting the cancellations of Naniwa and Bischu.

Look out for Jaedong's match at ASUS ROG, this is a match for the #2 headband! Jaedong got the #2 headband for getting 2nd place at Blizzcon 2013. Whoever beats the #2 headband holder takes the #2 headband from them.
Here is the explanation of headbands that I posted before -
+ Show Spoiler [Headbands] +

With the disbanding of ESF, I'm thinking of changing the pie chart for teams to be categorized into Original KESPA, Original ESF, and Other. Currently it is categorized into KESPA, ESF, and Other. This will still be by team and not by player, so Innovation would count for Other not for Original KESPA, and Trap would count for Original ESF.

I'm also going to add a section for each tournament, to show the probabilities for each player to win it (thanks Yakikorosu!)
And I still need to add the WCS Points min/mode, and the event markers on the probability graphs.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 30 6:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM Group A Completed, WCS AM Challenger Completed, GSL Code S Groups Set!
It seems the biggest loser resulting from the Code S groups is Solar, who got a way harder than average group with Rain, herO, and DongRaeGu. Solar went from 21.52% in the previous update down to 18.26% in this update.

I also added borders and text in the upcoming matches section for headband matches, check out Jaedong's upcoming match in ASUS for an example of a #2 headband match. #1 headband match will be similar but with a gold border instead of silver.
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jan 29 4:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00)GSL Wildcards Completed!
The GSL Wildcards have been completed, check out the difference it made for the winner
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=1642

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Global_StarCraft_II_League_Season_1/Code_A#Wildcard_Tournament
-----------------------

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jan 29 7:25am GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM and GSL Wildcards!
Added IEM to the upcoming matched list. It was in the simulation before, just didn't have the date/time for it.
Also added the GSL Wildcards to the simulation, for replacing Jjakji. This currently has the round of 12 completed.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Global_StarCraft_II_League_Season_1/Code_A#Wildcard_Tournament
Notice the big winners from this, and how their graph shoots up lol. Sleep, Cure, Paralyze, Gumiho, Dream, and Stork.

I also added some icons, made player names have tooltips and be links, and touched up the player pages a little bit.
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--------UPDATE Monday, Jan 27 12:10am GMT (GMT+00:00) New features!
Added Foreigner Hope section.
+ Show Spoiler [Foreigner Hope] +

Added pink and red borders around important upcoming matches.
+ Show Spoiler [Important Upcoming Matches] +

Added Headbands
+ Show Spoiler [Headbands] +

Added Biggest Winners and Biggest Losers
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners and Losers] +

I also changed summed percentage graphs changed to be out of 100% instead of out of 1600% to avoid confusion.

Also added liquidpedia scraping to ASUS ROG, so now those matches show up in the upcoming matches section.
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--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 24 4:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Code A Finished!
GSL Code A is now finished. Jjakji is currently a walkover in Code S.
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--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 24 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Challenger updates! And ASUS groups!
WCS EU Challenger finished with days 1, 2 and 3, WCS AM Challenger finished with days 1 and 2, GSL Code A done with groups A-J.
Also set the groups for ASUS ROG, and made the teams pie chart color coded.
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--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 23 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Challenger updates! And more graphs!
WCS AM/EU finished with days 1 and 2,GSL Code A done with groups A-J.
Also set the groups for IEM Sao Paulo, and Life replacing Vortix at ASUS.
I added a graph for summed probabilities for the teams, grouped by KESPA, ESF (only 2 teams now...), and Other.
Also added a graph for summed probabilities for different countries, which I think works better as a bar graph rather than a pie chart. Koreans are at ~1207% while foreigners are at ~ 393%, think of this as a preview for the Foreigner Hope Rating. You can zoom on this graph, just click and drag.
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--------UPDATE Sunday, Jan 19 2:16am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU/AM Challenger Matches set!
WCS EU/AM matches set, along with the liquipedia scraping for them, so they will now show up in the upcoming matches.
I also enabled zooming for the probabilities graphs for players, just click and drag.
Check out the initial testing for upcoming match consequences if you haven't already. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page, this will probably be done tonight.
You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match.
Here is an example on Innovation's page.
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48
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--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 4:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D,E,F results in!
Added in results from GSL Code A Group E.
Check out the initial testing for upcoming match consequences if you haven't already. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page.
You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match.
Here is an example on Innovation's page.
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48
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--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 8:03am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D,F results in!
Added in results from GSL Code A Group F.
Some initial testing for upcoming match consequences. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page.
You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match.
Here is an example on Innovation's page.
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48
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--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 1:50am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D results in!
Added in results from GSL Code A Groups C and D.
I also have it now searching for events for even lower chance players. Before it wasn't searching for events for players with less than 0.5% chance, but now the cutoff is 0.05%.
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--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 16 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Challenger League matches set, GSL Code A Group A and B results in!
Sorry about the delay, had some mysql issues earlier today.
I added some scraping of liquipedia to get results for matches instead of adding them manually. GSL Code A now automatically pulls the results from liquipedia.
I especially needed this for getting the dates and times for each match in order to properly handle upcoming match highlights, headbands, and achievements.
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--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jan 14 5:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) All WCS Qualifiers completed! Also full player list for ASUS!
Finalized WCS Qualifications. Code A has the groups drawn, the other regions don't yet. WCS EU has Mvp replacing duckdeok and Lucifron out.
For WCS AM they haven't announced what they're doing with the 49th player in Challenger, so I bumped Taeja up to Premier since he had the most WCS Points from last year in AM (EU did the same thing with Mvp replacing duckdeok).
Also full player list for ASUS is in.
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--------UPDATE Sunday, Jan 12 9:22am GMT (GMT+00:00) More WCS Qualifiers!
Added results for a bunch of WCS Qualifiers that happened today. The only qualifiers left are the ladder wildcards for AM and EU.
Also I fixed it so Jjakji is now a walkover in GSL since he's playing in WCS EU now.
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--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 09 12:45am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Qualifiers and IEM update!
Added results from the GSL qualifiers, IEM Cologne, and IEM Sao Paulo. The IEM tournaments needed some random players to fill the slots, I weighted the random selection towards players with an Aligulac rating over 1200.
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--------UPDATE Monday, Jan 06 12:10am GMT (GMT+00:00) More WCS AM/EU Qualifiers update!
Added current results from WCS AM and EU qualifiers, they still are not completed yet.
This includes 12 players qualified for WCS EU.
For WCS AM this includes 12 American players qualified and 3 Chinese.
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--------UPDATE Tuesday, Dec 31 6:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Qualifiers update and ASUS!
I just added in the current results of the WCS AM Taiwan/Hong Kong/Macau qualifiers with Ian, Fist, AK, and Slam. On the graph you can see Slam's chances went up by almost 10 times!
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=437

I also added in ASUS ROG Winter with the currently announced 24 players, and the remaining 8 filled at random. On the graph you can see how much this helped especially Jaedong
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=73

Looks like I'm gonna have to get the headband stuff working before ASUS since Jaedong will be there.
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--------UPDATE Friday, Dec 13 7:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) MORE GRAPHS ALSO GSL!
http://sc2.4ever.tv/
I added a pie chart at the top of the home page showing the sum of the percentages for each race. This is definitely the most legit way to judge the balance of the game. I also added the GSL (Code S, Code A, and qualifiers) to the simulation! Since the full details of the format have not been announced yet I had to make some guesses.
I also changed it to look for the top 16 as it should instead of the top 4 I was using for testing. The events still aren't very interesting yet because each player has only 1 tournament they can earn points through right now.

--------UPDATE Thursday, Dec 12 6:33am GMT (GMT+00:00) GRAPHS!
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=89
The graph shows the probability the player had from previous simulations. Obviously right now it looks crazy because of all the test simulations I've been doing.

Also I got WCS EU in the simulation now, including the qualifiers. Not sure how the next GSL is going to work so I don't think I can do that yet.

--------UPDATE Wednesday, Dec 11 2:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WEBSITE PREVIEW
I got the simulation now working with WCS AM, including premier, challenger, and challenger qualifiers, even simulating the soft region lock

Here is the preview website that is maybe 1% done, please don't complain about how ugly it is yet, and all the tournament data is fake. The simulation results are real though.
http://sc2.4ever.tv/
Clicking on a player in the list will show the different events that affect them.

I also have the simulation working with incremental updates, so you can view the updated results within just a few minutes of me starting the simulation, and the results will continue to be refined for later viewing.
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