Explanations up here! This is a website/program that calculates probabilities and statistics for players qualifying for Blizzcon/WCS Global Finals. It does this by running millions of simulations of all the tournaments using the Monte Carlo method(wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method ) calculating expected winrates with Aligulac ratings. + Show Spoiler [More Explanation] +
Right at the top of the front page you can see the time of the last update and how many samples/simulations are included in this result set. Right now it says Simulation #327, using results from 2014-02-02 19:13:34, has 21,000,000 samples. The time and date is currently CST but I will soon make it be displayed in your current timezone. 21 million samples means that it actually ran through every tournament 21 million times.
When I do an update you can see it as it's in progress. You'll see results with 500,000 samples within a few minutes of me starting the update. If you refresh the page later you can see more refined statistics with many millions of samples. Right now it adds 500,000 samples about every minute that I'm running it.
Under this there is a section with many highlights including upcoming matches, many graphs, headbands, achievements, and more. More on these later.
At the bottom is the Players Table, the list of all the players and their chances to make top 16 for the year by points. This shows all of the players in the simulation, right now it's 1,661 players! This list also shows the minimum and mode WCS Points that they made in all the simulations. If you click on one of the player names you will be taken to their player page.
On the players pages you can see some info about them, their chances, their upcoming matches, a graph of their chances over time, and events that are expected to help or hurt their chances.
Look at the 3rd one, the one where it talks about where Hyun gets 1st place in WCS America Premier. The Score is 0.3279, this is just a number the system uses to rate how much the event affects this player, this is the default column for sorting. The Probability column is how often this event happens, so about 9.77% of the time in all the simulations, Hyun gets 1st place in WCS AM Premier. The Chances column says how the event changes the player's chances if that event does happen. So if Hyun does win WCS AM Premier, then he's at about a 100% chance to be in the top 16 for the season by points.
The ones about upcoming matches, if you mouse over them then they show what players are in the match.
Here's 2 events grouped together
These are both about the same match, a group of Hyun, TheStc, Byul, and Revival. So the chances of Hyun advancing and TheStc losing this match are about 58.41%, and when both of these things happen then Hyun's chances change to about 38.77%.
Let's go back to the front page. The top section has a bunch of highlights.
Upcoming matches shows matches that are coming up soon and their expected effects on the players. Upcoming matches have a pink border if they are expected to have large effects, red border for larger effects, a silver border if it's match for the #2 headband, and a gold border if it's a match for the #1 headband. More on headbands later. You can also click on "Show More Upcoming Matches" to show more upcoming matches.
To the right are pie charts for Summed Percentages for Races/Teams. This is just the percentage chances for all the players added up (and then divided by 16 to make them out of 100%, by popular demand). The Summed Percentages for Teams is grouped into KESPA/ESF/Other, and then subdivided into the biggest teams.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So at the begging of the year sOs had the #1 headband and Jaedong had the #2 headband. Jaedong's first WCS matches were at ASUS ROG Winter, where he defended the #2 headband against GunGFuBanDa, elfi, and Liquid Hero. But then Life beat Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then San beat Life to take the #2 headband. From there San won the tournament and still has the #2 headband. So now we have sOs still with the #1 headband, and San with the #2 headband with 2 defenses (StarDust and Dear). The only way for sOs to lose his #1 headband is if the player with the #2 headband beats him in a WCS Tournament. So if San keeps defending and holds on to his #2 headband, and then he beats sOs at IEM Cologne, then San will take the #1 headband and sOs will get the #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
Point Cutoffs shows the % chances that the 16th ranked player at the end of the year has X many points or less. ~ 0 % of the time 2,150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 59.14 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon So this means that ~ 59.14 % of the time, the 16th ranked player ends up with 2,700 or less WCS Points. It also says that 2,150 points is never enough to qualify in these simulations, and 3,550 points is always enough in these simulations. If you go on the website, you can click on "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to see even more details.
This section coming soon. Achievements will be like "Winning 2 WCS Premier Leagues in a row" or "10 match winstreak in a WCS Premier League". This section will highlight recently earned achievements, and players that are close to earning an achievement.
The line graph shows the chances of having 1+,2+,3+,etc foreigners in the top 16 in points for the season, and it shows how these chances have changed over time. Below this you can see the foreigners that are most likely to be the only foreigner in the top 16. Below that you can see the Summed Percentages For Countries. This is similar to the Summed Percentages For Teams/Races except in bar graph form, because in a pie chart Korea would just consume all the space.
Biggest Winners and Losers Since 5+ Days Ago shows who has gone up and down in chances by the most. It compares their chances to their chances from the most recent update that was done at least 5 days ago.
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Oct 14 1:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) Player Retrospectives! Now that the top 16 is set, it's time to look back and see how the top 16 players made it, and where a few players failed. I will be doing 1 or 2 retrospective analysis each day, with a very in depth look at each player individually and their journey through the year, in no particular order.
--------UPDATE Sunday, Oct 05 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and GSL Results! The biggest changes in this update are the likely seeds and likely first matches at WCS Finals. With MMA securing his #9 seed, we now have a confirmed first round match of MMA vs StarDust (see below for more). Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.79 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
Biggest Winners Over The Past 5 Days INnoVation went up by ~ 48.16 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.29 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 72.07 %
Biggest Losers Over The Past 5 Days ForGG went down by ~ 18.63 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 0 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 10.22 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.06 %
Likely Seeds MMA has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 89.14 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Classic has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 64.35 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 63.34 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 60.24 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 56.9 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 54.41 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 50.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 49.99 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 45.59 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.57 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.56 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 36.66 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 29.56 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 27.93 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 27.93 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 27.93 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 27.92 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.71 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 21.93 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 20.39 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 20.15 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 18.57 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 17.06 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 17.05 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 16.51 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.44 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 10.97 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 10.86 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 10.2 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 6.86 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.63 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 6.07 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 5.43 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.43 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 2.32 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon.
Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 72.13 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 69.4 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 64.58 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 56.83 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 54.33 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 39.3 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 35.42 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 30.6 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.42 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.77 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.38 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.15 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.51 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.17 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.85 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.85 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.96 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.95 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.51 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.5 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.33 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.46 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.89 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.37 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.37 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.07 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.1 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.32 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.19 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.82 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.9 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.32 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.18 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.18 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.89 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
WCS AM Winning Gains HerO would gain ~ 95.21 % if they win, with a ~ 4.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.79 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.93 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.07 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 82.94 % if they win, with a ~ 17.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.06 % to ~ 100 %
These 3 players must win and will not make it with a 2nd place or lower. Any of these 3 players winning would knock Jaedong out. Innovation is secured.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Saturday, Oct 04 9:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Playoffs Day 1 Results! Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.81 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 48.16 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.27 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 72.05 %
Biggest Losers ForGG went down by ~ 18.63 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 0 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 10.22 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.06 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.08 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 72.05 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Foreigner Hope Scarlett ~ 17.08 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.08 % chance overall. ~ 0 % chances for 2+ foreigners to qualify for Blizzcon!
Likely Seeds StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
TaeJa has a ~ 64.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 51.94 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 51.04 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 50.48 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 50.04 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 49.96 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 49.11 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 45.52 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.6 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.53 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 44.01 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 39.59 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 38.85 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 38.62 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 32.73 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 31.73 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 27.95 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 27.95 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 27.95 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 27.94 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 23.27 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 20.13 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 19.57 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 17.42 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 17.08 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 16.95 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.7 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 15.33 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 14.97 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 11.87 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 11.25 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 11.22 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 11.08 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 10.34 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 10.33 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 10.24 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 8.82 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 7.68 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.32 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.51 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.44 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 5.43 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 5.42 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 5.36 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 4.51 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 4.01 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 2.44 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 2.37 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 1.56 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon.
Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 58.21 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 50.76 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 49.11 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 44.01 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.57 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 34.29 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 32.9 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 31.01 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.11 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.1 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 27.48 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.01 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.51 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.37 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.13 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.87 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.42 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.16 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.24 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.6 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.34 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.33 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.32 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.24 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.2 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.85 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.82 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.71 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.87 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.04 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.43 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.9 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.65 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.32 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.51 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.25 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.74 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.17 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.07 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.85 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.74 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.37 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.56 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.48 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.44 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.96 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
WCS AM Winning Gains HerO would gain ~ 95.19 % if they win, with a ~ 4.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.81 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.94 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.06 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 82.94 % if they win, with a ~ 17.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.06 % to ~ 100 %
These 3 players must win and will not make it with a 2nd place or lower. Any of these 3 players winning would knock Jaedong out. Innovation is secured.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Saturday, Oct 04 11:45am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Finals Results! Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.79 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 40.23 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 92.07 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %
Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 17.2 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.59 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 9.57 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.05 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.58 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 92.07 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Foreigner Hope Scarlett ~ 15.42 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.06 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 7.93 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 9.57 % chance overall.
~ 24.99 % chance for 1+ foreigner at Blizzcon ~ 1.63 % chance for 2 foreigners at Blizzcon
Likely Seeds StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 64.35 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 53.39 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 51.88 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Jaedong has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 50.6 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 49.26 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.51 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.47 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 43.88 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 41.14 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 40.49 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 40.49 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 38.48 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 38.28 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 35.05 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 34.12 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 34.11 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 29.07 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 27.67 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 27.1 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 25.28 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 25.28 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 23.44 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.76 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 21.7 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 20.94 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 20.07 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 19.32 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 18.21 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 17.78 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 17.71 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 15.65 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 15.63 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 14.3 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 13.25 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.91 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.21 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 12.18 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 10.3 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 9.64 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 9.44 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 8.72 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 8.53 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 8.39 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 7.93 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 7.61 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 7.11 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 6.68 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.05 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 5.99 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 5.99 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 5.81 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.51 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.51 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 5.5 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 5.5 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 5.36 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.27 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 2.92 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 2.83 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 2.35 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 2.16 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.97 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 1.25 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.15 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.04 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 0.76 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.72 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.49 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon.
Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 43.88 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 43.4 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 41.06 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.69 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 35.36 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 32.96 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 31.3 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.77 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.41 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.4 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.47 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.7 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.24 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.05 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.2 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.19 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.47 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.47 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.71 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.7 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.02 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.47 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.05 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.05 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.53 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.39 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.08 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.77 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.62 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.42 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.26 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.53 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.43 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.42 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.49 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.27 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.62 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.31 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.15 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.36 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.09 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.65 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.28 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.83 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.35 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.33 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.53 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.19 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.15 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.06 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see San vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.78 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.76 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.72 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals.
WCS EU Winning Gains Bunny would gain ~ 90.43 % if they win, with a ~ 9.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.57 % to ~ 100 % ForGG would gain ~ 81.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.86 % to ~ 100 %
WCS AM Winning Gains HerO would gain ~ 95.2 % if they win, with a ~ 4.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.8 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.93 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.07 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 82.95 % if they win, with a ~ 17.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.05 % to ~ 100 %
No one benefits from a 2nd place or less anymore. If Bunny/ForGG wins WCS EU AND HerO/Pigbaby/Scarlett wins WCS AM, then Innovation is out. If any of those above 5 players wins then Jaedong is out.
Also Terran finally caught up with Protoss in the summed percentages. Terran ~ 38.78 % Protoss ~ 38.18 % Zerg ~ 23.04 %
And SKT T1 is now the highest team on the teams summed percentages, even beating teamless. SKT T1 ~ 18.25 % teamless ~ 12.88 % mYinsanity ~ 12.5 % Acer ~ 7.32 % Liquid ~ 7.15 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Sep 30 4:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Finals Preview! Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 15.56 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (before DH Stockholm, 3,000 was at ~ 44.7 %) ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.79 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.83 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (before DH Stockholm, 3,575 was the lowest with ~ 100 %) + Show Spoiler [All Cutoffs] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 15.56 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.6 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.6 % of the time 2,975 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.94 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.94 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.79 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.83 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Foreigner Hope Scarlett ~ 15.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.43 % chance overall. Snute ~ 13.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.55 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 8.44 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.22 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.04 % chance overall.
~ 40.46 % chances of 1+ foreigners at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chances of 2 foreigners at Blizzcon.
Likely Seeds StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 64.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 63.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 53.1 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 51.83 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Life has a ~ 50.99 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 49.11 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 46.58 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.35 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.34 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 42.01 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 40.84 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 38.37 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 37.75 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 35.09 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 34.16 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 34.14 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 33.71 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 28.79 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 28.68 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 28.03 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 27.19 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 25.08 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 25.08 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 23.45 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 23.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.89 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 22.21 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 21.51 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 20.47 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon.
Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 63.16 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 40.43 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.12 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.11 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 33.2 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 31.6 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 30.54 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.96 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.22 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.04 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.58 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.61 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.17 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.17 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.49 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.19 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.66 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.28 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.06 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.23 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.11 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.41 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.38 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.67 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.44 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.31 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.56 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.28 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.21 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.21 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.83 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.7 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.36 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.77 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.72 % chance to see TaeJa vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.44 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.25 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.24 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.14 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.32 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.76 % chance to see Polt vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.36 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.26 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.03 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.03 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.74 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.39 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.39 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.16 % chance to see MC vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.15 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.76 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.69 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.62 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.61 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.29 % chance to see HyuN vs Heart in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.15 % chance to see San vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.13 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.11 % chance to see HyuN vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.04 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.04 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.02 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals.
GSL Finals preview! Starts in INnoVation must win this! INnoVation, soO in GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 51.84 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 91.83 %. ~ 43.55 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.55 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 56.45 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
INnoVation has a ~ 28.79 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 23.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon.
~ 24.22 % chance to see INnoVation vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see INnoVation vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.77 % chance to see INnoVation vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.44 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.25 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see INnoVation vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals.
soO has a ~ 63.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 33.71 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 3.13 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon.
~ 63.16 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.04 % chance to see soO vs TaeJa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.23 % chance to see soO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.52 % chance to see soO vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals.
Other predicted effects -If soO wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 91.84 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 31.11 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 5.19 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 5.09 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 4.62 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 8.66 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 2.39 %
-If INnoVation wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.01 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 %
-Single events that hurt INnoVation ~ 4.81 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.1 %
~ 17.43 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.17 %
~ 6.07 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.2 %
~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.45 %
~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.46 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 12.7 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 47.4 %
~ 15.47 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 47.51 %
~ 14.73 % of the time MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.5 %
~ 11.58 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.54 %
~ 27.24 % of the time HyuN gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.99 %
~ 23.19 % of the time HuK gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.13 %
~ 34.16 % of the time Polt loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 against HerO This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.53 %
~ 56.34 % of the time Scarlett wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.87 %
~ 35.63 % of the time Pigbaby wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.88 %
~ 59.09 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 against ForGG This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.92 %
~ 55.01 % of the time San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 against Bunny This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.04 %
~ 17.6 % of the time Bomber gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.67 %
~ 8.8 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.71 %
~ 34.32 % of the time Bunny gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.93 %
~ 15.41 % of the time Polt gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.98 %
~ 39.38 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 51.05 %
~ 20.98 % of the time MC gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 51.34 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Stockholm Player List Set! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 8.08 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.16 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.31 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 44.7 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 64.36 % in yesterday's post) ~ 51.99 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest winners and losers since yesterday's post before the full Stockholm player list was set. Biggest Winners soO went up by ~ 12.6 %, going from ~ 18.08 % to ~ 30.68 % MMA went up by ~ 10.19 %, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 65.36 % YoDa went up by ~ 5.11 %, going from ~ 8.19 % to ~ 13.31 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.36 %, going from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 64.65 % HerO went up by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 8.08 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.82 % to ~ 0.98 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 17.23 %, going from ~ 70.75 % to ~ 53.52 % sOs went down by ~ 3.78 %, going from ~ 61.51 % to ~ 57.73 % Life went down by ~ 2.58 %, going from ~ 99.43 % to ~ 96.85 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.89 %, going from ~ 15.88 % to ~ 13.99 % Heart went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 6.89 % to ~ 5.14 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
ForGG went down by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 12.18 % to ~ 11.21 % HuK went down by ~ 0.9 %, going from ~ 3.33 % to ~ 2.43 % herO went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 96.08 % to ~ 95.31 % Classic went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 99.25 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 20.49 % to ~ 19.87 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 10.92 % to ~ 10.36 % Happy went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 0.1 % Cure went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 0.31 % Golden went down by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 3.38 % to ~ 3.12 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 0.32 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 30.81 % to ~ 30.62 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.03 % Rain went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 14.26 % to ~ 14.15 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 37.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 53.52 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 9.75 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.87 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 6.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.99 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.43 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 1.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.63 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
MaNa ~ 0.25 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.98 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.11 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.32 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.1 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % to ~ 74.6 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.87 % to ~ 18.16 %
So let's do another checkup lol. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 3 players over 0.1%. From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances
GSL Rain would gain ~ 85.86 % if they win, with a ~ 14.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.14 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 5.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation would gain ~ 68.91 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.62 % to ~ 99.54 %
WCS AM HerO would gain ~ 91.92 % if they win, with a ~ 6.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.63 % if they win, with a ~ 6.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 80.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.86 % to ~ 99.99 % Heart would gain ~ 59.62 % if they win, with a ~ 7.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.14 % to ~ 64.76 % HuK would gain ~ 44.64 % if they win, with a ~ 5.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 47.06 %
WCS EU Welmu would gain ~ 97.36 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 99.99 % ForGG would gain ~ 88.79 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 99.99 % Bunny would gain ~ 86.01 % if they win, with a ~ 11.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 85.02 % if they win, with a ~ 3.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 88.14 % YoDa would gain ~ 50.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 63.53 % MaNa would gain ~ 37.55 % if they win, with a ~ 2.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 38.54 % MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 % Dayshi would gain ~ 17.31 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 17.63 %
Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance, probably relying on the Placeholder Tournament. Cure would gain ~ 1.21 % if they win, with a ~ 20.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 1.53 % Stats would gain ~ 0.03 % if they win, with a ~ 11.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Happy would gain ~ 0.86 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.96 %
~ 7.56 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 %
~ 14.71 % of the time MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 99.92 %
~ 28.35 % of the time MMA gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 80.52 %
~ 12.92 % of the time Bunny gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 10.41 %
~ 8.17 % of the time ForGG gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 6.01 %
~ 25.51 % of the time Bunny gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 3.27 %
~ 15.1 % of the time ForGG gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 1.98 %
~ 4.54 % of the time Welmu gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 1.12 %
~ 10.85 % of the time Welmu gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 0.09 %
~ 49.8 % of the time Bunny gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 0.09 %
~ 5.8 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 0.03 %
~ 26.96 % of the time ForGG gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 0.02 %
~ 13.78 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 0.02 %
~ 24.49 % of the time YoDa gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 3.34 % of the time Dayshi gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Dayshi's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 26.88 % of the time Welmu gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 4.4 % of the time MaNa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MaNa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 12.33 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0 %
We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them. Snute ~ 3.01 % of the time Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 100 %
~ 3.13 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 6.07 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.85 %
~ 11.48 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 93.74 %
~ 20.74 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 68.66 %
~ 27.81 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 29.36 %
sOs ~ 14.85 % of the time sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 %
~ 13.12 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 99.97 %
~ 25.06 % of the time sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 98.97 %
~ 46.97 % of the time sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 10.58 %
Jaedong ~ 2.25 % of the time Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 100 %
~ 2.67 % of the time Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 5.33 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.86 %
~ 10.52 % of the time Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 94.81 %
~ 19.91 % of the time Jaedong gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 74.58 %
~ 29.02 % of the time Jaedong gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 49.82 %
Then we also have Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm. Red Bull Washington Winning Gains sOs would gain ~ 42.26 % if they win, with a ~ 14.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 5.36 % if they win, with a ~ 14.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 25.22 % Cure would gain ~ 2.05 % if they win, with a ~ 12.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 2.37 % PartinG would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 14.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.73 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Trap would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Stockholm Winning Gains soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 3.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 99.99 % HerO would gain ~ 59.79 % if they win, with a ~ 1.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 67.86 % Snute would gain ~ 46.48 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 53.52 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong would gain ~ 35.34 % if they win, with a ~ 2.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 64.66 % to ~ 100 % MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 3.71 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Bunny would gain ~ 30.81 % if they win, with a ~ 4.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 44.81 % ForGG would gain ~ 14.28 % if they win, with a ~ 4.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 25.49 % YoDa would gain ~ 7.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.29 % to ~ 20.94 % herO would gain ~ 4.7 % if they win, with a ~ 6.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.3 % to ~ 100 % Welmu would gain ~ 4.69 % if they win, with a ~ 1.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 7.32 % Life would gain ~ 3.15 % if they win, with a ~ 5.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 96.85 % to ~ 100 % HuK would gain ~ 2.8 % if they win, with a ~ 1.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 5.22 % MaNa would gain ~ 1.6 % if they win, with a ~ 0.97 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 2.58 % Dayshi would gain ~ 1.48 % if they win, with a ~ 1.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 1.8 % Classic would gain ~ 0.75 % if they win, with a ~ 3.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.25 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 0.49 % if they win, with a ~ 1.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 3.62 % Solar would gain ~ 0.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.08 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.05 % if they win, with a ~ 2.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % TLO would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.78 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Oz would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % First would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 3.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % jjakji would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % MorroW would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MarineLord would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Blysk would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kane would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.31 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Zanster would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % SortOf would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % PiG would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ret would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DeMusliM would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ToD would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Grubby would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % uThermal would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Leenock would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Lilbow would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here!
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Quarterfinals Set! Also added Huk and Bunny to DreamHack Stockholm, and reduced the Placeholder Tournament down to just 5%. Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
Heart (Axiom), is at ~ 6.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.53 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.01 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 61.14 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 64.36 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 41.17 % in yesterday's post) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,575 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in yesterday's post)
Biggest winners and losers from yesterday's post. Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 12.95 %, going from ~ 17.88 % to ~ 30.83 % Scarlett went up by ~ 9.86 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 20.47 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 6.39 %, going from ~ 4.55 % to ~ 10.94 % Bunny went up by ~ 5.44 %, going from ~ 10.46 % to ~ 15.9 % herO went up by ~ 5.15 %, going from ~ 90.93 % to ~ 96.08 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
MMA went up by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 50.42 % to ~ 55.18 % HerO went up by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 2.55 % to ~ 6.24 % YoDa went up by ~ 2.3 %, going from ~ 5.89 % to ~ 8.19 % Life went up by ~ 1.58 %, going from ~ 97.86 % to ~ 99.44 % Heart went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 5.34 % to ~ 6.89 % HuK went up by ~ 1.42 %, going from ~ 1.91 % to ~ 3.33 % Snute went up by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 69.47 % to ~ 70.73 % Cure went up by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 0.2 % to ~ 0.57 % Classic went up by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 99.86 % to ~ 99.99 %
Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 20.5 %, going from ~ 81.81 % to ~ 61.31 % viOLet went down by ~ 12.28 %, going from ~ 12.45 % to ~ 0.17 % Solar went down by ~ 10.61 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 0.01 % VortiX went down by ~ 5.59 %, going from ~ 5.59 % to ~ 0.01 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 2.65 %, going from ~ 2.65 % to ~ 0.01 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
TLO went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 1.32 % to ~ 0.01 % sOs went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 62.82 % to ~ 61.5 % Golden went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 4.12 % to ~ 3.38 % soO went down by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 18.66 % to ~ 18.05 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.43 %, going from ~ 3.01 % to ~ 2.58 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 12.49 % to ~ 12.19 % Rain went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 14.5 % to ~ 14.26 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 0.55 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 0.82 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 46.14 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.73 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.47 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 20.47 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 4.4 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 15.9 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.15 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.33 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.62 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.58 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Dayshi ~ 0.12 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.55 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.03 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.39 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.82 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 82.28 % to ~ 85.82 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 31.03 % to ~ 26.87 %
So let's take a look at where we're at. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots as argonautdice said. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 5 players over 0.1%. From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances
GSL Rain would gain ~ 85.73 % if they win, with a ~ 14.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 81.93 % if they win, with a ~ 5.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.07 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation would gain ~ 69.18 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.82 % to ~ 99.99 %
WCS AM HerO would gain ~ 93.76 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.07 % if they win, with a ~ 5.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.93 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 79.52 % if they win, with a ~ 18.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 20.48 % to ~ 100 % Heart would gain ~ 78.17 % if they win, with a ~ 8.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.88 % to ~ 85.05 % HuK would gain ~ 60.47 % if they win, with a ~ 5.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.32 % to ~ 63.8 %
WCS EU Welmu would gain ~ 97.42 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 91.76 % if they win, with a ~ 3.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 95.14 % ForGG would gain ~ 87.81 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.19 % to ~ 100 % Bunny would gain ~ 84.1 % if they win, with a ~ 11.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 15.9 % to ~ 100 % MMA would gain ~ 44.83 % if they win, with a ~ 7.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 100 % MaNa would gain ~ 31.52 % if they win, with a ~ 2.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 32.35 % YoDa would gain ~ 30.97 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 39.17 % Dayshi would gain ~ 29.94 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 30.49 %
Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance. Cure would gain ~ 2.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.8 % Stats would gain ~ 0.21 % if they win, with a ~ 11.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.24 % Happy would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 3.75 %
We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them. Snute ~ 5.09 % of the time Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 %
~ 4.61 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 %
~ 8.47 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 14.47 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.94 %
~ 23.15 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 89.08 %
~ 23.37 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 39.5 %
sOs ~ 14.86 % of the time sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.24 % of the time sOs gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %
~ 13.12 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.16 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %
~ 25.06 % of the time sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.29 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 46.95 % of the time sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 18.04 %
~ 0.46 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 97.18 %
~ 0.7 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 89.81 %
Jaedong ~ 0.13 % of the time Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.12 % of the time Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.23 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.41 % of the time Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 99.8 %
Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here!
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Sep 16 4:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Red Bull Washington Confirmed WCS Points! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.57 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.85 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 41.17 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 57.65 % in the previous update) ~ 49.44 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,500 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in the previous update)
Biggest winners and losers from readdition and confirmation of Red Bull Washington. Biggest Winners sOs went up by ~ 41.66 %, going from ~ 21.17 % to ~ 62.84 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 2.56 %, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 2.64 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 9.9 % to ~ 10.62 % Cure went up by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.2 % Solar went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 10.45 % to ~ 10.62 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 11.16 %, going from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 69.5 % Jaedong went down by ~ 8.43 %, going from ~ 90.22 % to ~ 81.79 % herO went down by ~ 5.82 %, going from ~ 96.74 % to ~ 90.92 % MMA went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 55.18 % to ~ 50.42 % soO went down by ~ 4.12 %, going from ~ 22.78 % to ~ 18.66 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa went down by ~ 2.63 %, going from ~ 8.53 % to ~ 5.89 % Life went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 99.46 % to ~ 97.84 % Heart went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 6.66 % to ~ 5.34 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 13.59 % to ~ 12.43 % HuK went down by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 2.85 % to ~ 1.91 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 18.72 % to ~ 17.85 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 5.28 % to ~ 4.55 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 1.55 % to ~ 0.96 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 12.82 % to ~ 12.47 % Rain went down by ~ 0.24 %, going from ~ 14.73 % to ~ 14.49 % Golden went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 4.34 % to ~ 4.12 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.85 % to ~ 0.71 % Classic went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 99.98 % to ~ 99.86 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 49.82 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 69.5 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.47 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.62 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 1.93 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.59 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.99 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HuK ~ 0.7 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.45 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.32 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.2 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.71 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.05 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.35 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.96 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 89.78 % to ~ 82.28 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 25.35 % to ~ 31.03 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Sep 15 8:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Red Bull Washington Removed! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.66 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.98 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 55.23 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 57.65 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 49.23 % in the previous update) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest winners and losers from Removal of Red Bull Washington. Biggest Winners Snute went up by ~ 5.51 %, going from ~ 75.15 % to ~ 80.66 % Jaedong went up by ~ 4.33 %, going from ~ 85.91 % to ~ 90.24 % MMA went up by ~ 4.11 %, going from ~ 51.06 % to ~ 55.17 % herO went up by ~ 2.95 %, going from ~ 93.79 % to ~ 96.73 % soO went up by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 20.96 % to ~ 22.77 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa went up by ~ 1.28 %, going from ~ 7.26 % to ~ 8.54 % Life went up by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 98.64 % to ~ 99.46 % Heart went up by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 5.93 % to ~ 6.67 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 13.04 % to ~ 13.6 % HuK went up by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 2.38 % to ~ 2.84 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 4.91 % to ~ 5.27 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 1.28 % to ~ 1.55 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 12.73 % to ~ 12.84 % INnoVation went up by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 18.61 % to ~ 18.71 %
Biggest Losers sOs went down by ~ 20.81 %, going from ~ 41.99 % to ~ 21.19 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 1.27 % to ~ 0.08 % Rain went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 15.65 % to ~ 14.73 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 10.25 % to ~ 9.88 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 10.46 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 56.46 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 80.66 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 2.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.46 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 2.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 9.88 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 1.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.6 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.74 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.84 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Welmu ~ 0.62 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.99 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.32 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.15 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.85 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.41 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.55 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 86.14 % to ~ 89.78 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 23.45 % to ~ 25.35 %
Most Likely First Round WCS Finals Matches ~ 37.25 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.76 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.53 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.59 % chance to see HyuN vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.09 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.03 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.69 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.64 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.59 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.43 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 16.69 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.18 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.64 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.13 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.48 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.06 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.34 % chance to see StarDust vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.99 % chance to see Snute vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.81 % chance to see TaeJa vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.7 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.9 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.75 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.74 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.63 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.54 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.17 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.05 % chance to see Jaedong vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.75 % chance to see Polt vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.38 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.29 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.95 % chance to see San vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.68 % chance to see MC vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.03 % chance to see HyuN vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.98 % chance to see Snute vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.9 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.48 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.46 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.44 % chance to see Life vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.34 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.23 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.07 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.94 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.21 % chance to see HyuN vs sOs in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.71 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.32 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.14 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.07 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.05 % chance to see StarDust vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see soO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.81 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.8 % chance to see viOLet vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.6 % chance to see sOs vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.56 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.14 % chance to see Rain vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.92 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.9 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.73 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.68 % chance to see Rain vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.61 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.57 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.54 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.51 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.23 % chance to see INnoVation vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.16 % chance to see TaeJa vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.09 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Sep 14 7:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow Completed! I also made Red Bull Washington only give WCS points half of the time since there's still been no announcement about it, and I added in the confirmed players for DreamHack Stockholm. Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (a week ago 2,275 points was the highest with 0% chances) ~ 0.64 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.96 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 23.52 % a week ago) ~ 49.23 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 89.1 % a week ago) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (a week ago 3,600 points was the lowest with 100% chances) The point cuttoffs are moving up! The 100% marker moving down is natural, since all possibilities are accounted for, the 0% and 100% markers should only move inwards.
Biggest winners and losers from KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow (before the changes I made to Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm). Biggest Winners herO went up by ~ 49.81 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 94.32 % Classic went up by ~ 36.5 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.87 % MMA went up by ~ 35.61 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 53.88 % jjakji went up by ~ 27.32 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 99.99 % Snute went up by ~ 7.54 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 42.22 % Heart went up by ~ 1.45 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 6.38 %
Biggest Losers soO went down by ~ 60.43 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 21.21 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 21.52 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 5.64 % Rain went down by ~ 17.23 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 16.07 % sOs went down by ~ 10.28 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 64.03 % Jaedong went down by ~ 9.34 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 88.31 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
viOLet went down by ~ 9.31 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 14.24 % Solar went down by ~ 3.82 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 10.45 % Flash went down by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.01 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.52 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 8.13 % HuK went down by ~ 2.13 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 2.63 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.86 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.05 % Happy went down by ~ 1.72 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 0.59 % MaNa went down by ~ 1.7 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 0.96 % HerO went down by ~ 1.63 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 2.79 % Life went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 98.63 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 2.81 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 10.93 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.95 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.17 % Golden went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 4.05 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 3.88 % to ~ 3.07 % Cure went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.3 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.34 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 6.1 % to ~ 5.68 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.75 % Dear went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 % TLO went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 1.34 %
Biggest winners and losers from the changes to Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm. The Red Bull change had a huge effect on sOs! (Red Bull, please make an announcement!) Snute had large gains mostly due to his confirmation of attending Dreamhack Stockholm, and I think the Red Bull change helped him too. Biggest Winners Snute went up by ~ 32.9 %, going from ~ 42.22 % to ~ 75.12 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.38 %, going from ~ 11.35 % to ~ 12.73 % Dayshi went up by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.79 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 1.27 % Golden went up by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 4.32 %
Biggest Losers sOs went down by ~ 22.03 %, going from ~ 64.02 % to ~ 41.99 % MMA went down by ~ 2.82 %, going from ~ 53.87 % to ~ 51.04 % Jaedong went down by ~ 2.4 %, going from ~ 88.32 % to ~ 85.92 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 2.8 % to ~ 1.26 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 14.24 % to ~ 13.04 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa went down by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 8.12 % to ~ 7.31 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 11.04 % to ~ 10.25 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 5.65 % to ~ 4.91 % herO went down by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 94.33 % to ~ 93.78 % Rain went down by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 16.1 % to ~ 15.64 % Heart went down by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 6.37 % to ~ 5.93 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 10.93 % to ~ 10.62 % HuK went down by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 2.37 % Cure went down by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 0.09 % soO went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 21.2 % to ~ 20.99 % HerO went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 2.78 % to ~ 2.58 % Happy went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 0.59 % to ~ 0.4 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 18.74 % to ~ 18.58 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 52.96 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 75.12 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.62 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 2.94 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.25 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 1.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.65 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.81 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.06 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HuK ~ 0.7 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.37 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.39 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.35 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.17 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.79 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.05 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.4 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.27 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 65.55 % to ~ 86.14 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 17.29 % to ~ 23.44 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Saturday, Sep 06 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow Previews! In this update I also made it so that the Placeholder Tournament 1 only has a 25% chance of it happening, so most of the samples don't include this tournament at all, because I feel it is unlikely that we will have another tournament announced. I will post the GSL Quarterfinals previews after KeSPA Cup is completed, since that will have big impact on many of those players, but you can already look at those previews on the website.
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 23.52 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 39.1 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 71.53 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 89.1 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,600 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
2,850 WCS Points has over 30% better chances than 2,825 WCS Points!
Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago soO went up by ~ 22.66 %, going from ~ 58.88 % to ~ 81.54 % Rain went up by ~ 6.67 %, going from ~ 26.77 % to ~ 33.44 % Solar went up by ~ 6.02 %, going from ~ 7.87 % to ~ 13.9 % ForGG went up by ~ 4.32 %, going from ~ 7.72 % to ~ 12.05 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 2.21 %, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 4.08 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Golden went up by ~ 1.86 %, going from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 4.59 % MaNa went up by ~ 1.24 %, going from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 2.07 % INnoVation went up by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 18.87 % to ~ 19.18 % Dayshi went up by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 0.85 % to ~ 1.15 % Jaedong went up by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 97.38 % to ~ 97.65 %
Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago Flash went down by ~ 19.45 %, going from ~ 23.17 % to ~ 3.72 % sOs went down by ~ 6.52 %, going from ~ 83.69 % to ~ 77.17 % jjakji went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 72.57 % to ~ 69.88 % TRUE went down by ~ 2.31 %, going from ~ 2.32 % to ~ 0.01 % Classic went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 65.03 % to ~ 62.94 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Bunny went down by ~ 1.78 %, going from ~ 12.43 % to ~ 10.65 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.74 %, going from ~ 23.95 % to ~ 22.21 % Snute went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 37.57 % to ~ 36.03 % herO went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 46.18 % to ~ 44.64 % HerO went down by ~ 1.14 %, going from ~ 5.83 % to ~ 4.69 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.09 %, going from ~ 27.6 % to ~ 26.51 % MMA went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 20.61 % to ~ 19.62 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 8.8 % to ~ 8.24 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 0.37 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.34 %, going from ~ 12.94 % to ~ 12.6 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 4.14 % to ~ 3.84 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 13.66 % to ~ 13.45 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 2.47 % to ~ 2.29 % Happy went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 1.2 % Jim went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 0.45 % Dear went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.3 % to ~ 0.15 % TLO went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 2.03 % to ~ 1.9 %
KeSPA Cup - Classic is at ~ 62.94 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.88 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.78 %. ~ 43.12 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 15.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.12 % of the time Rogue wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 56.88 % of the time Rogue loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.26 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.74 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.74 % of the time ByuL wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 64.26 % of the time ByuL loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.89 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 34.11 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 26.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.11 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 56.56 %. ~ 65.89 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.96 %.
KeSPA Cup - sOs is at ~ 77.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.24 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 95.56 %. ~ 36.76 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 45.55 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.76 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.24 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Flash is at ~ 3.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.43 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.26 %. ~ 40.57 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.57 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 59.43 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
KeSPA Cup - soO is at ~ 81.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.21 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.67 %. ~ 42.79 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 57.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Super is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.79 % of the time Super wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 57.21 % of the time Super loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - herO is at ~ 44.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.86 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 59.51 %. ~ 26.14 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sorry is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.14 % of the time Sorry wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.86 % of the time Sorry loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Rain is at ~ 33.44 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.62 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 43.33 %. ~ 39.38 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 18.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.38 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 60.62 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
KeSPA Cup Winning Chances Zest has a ~ 13.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 12.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 33.44 % to ~ 99.99 % Flash has a ~ 12.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 30.35 % herO has a ~ 10.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 8.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
San has a ~ 8.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 5.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 81.54 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 5.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 4.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 4.97 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 100 % ByuL has a ~ 3.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.51 % to ~ 100 % Super has a ~ 2.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Rogue has a ~ 2.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.32 % Reality has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Sorry has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
KeSPA Cup Winning Gains Pigbaby would gain ~ 73.49 % if they win, with a ~ 2.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 26.51 % to ~ 100 % Rain would gain ~ 66.56 % if they win, with a ~ 12.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 33.44 % to ~ 99.99 % herO would gain ~ 55.36 % if they win, with a ~ 10.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 37.06 % if they win, with a ~ 4.97 % chance to win, going from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 26.63 % if they win, with a ~ 12.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 30.35 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
sOs would gain ~ 22.83 % if they win, with a ~ 8.83 % chance to win, going from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 18.46 % if they win, with a ~ 5.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 81.54 % to ~ 100 % Rogue would gain ~ 0.31 % if they win, with a ~ 2.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.32 % Reality would gain ~ 0.02 % if they win, with a ~ 2.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % ByuL would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Super would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sorry would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.44 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
~ 87.94 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 0.07 %
~ 40.75 % of the time Rogue gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 15.55 %
~ 36.38 % of the time Rogue gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 15.76 %
~ 59.25 % of the time Rogue doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 95.54 %
~ 48.09 % of the time Classic doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 24.39 %
~ 51.91 % of the time Classic gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 98.66 %
~ 45.02 % of the time Classic gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 98.46 %
~ 54.98 % of the time Classic doesn't get 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 33.87 %
~ 63.62 % of the time Rogue doesn't get 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 89.92 %
~ 26.35 % of the time Rogue gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 15.72 %
~ 29.27 % of the time Classic gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 97.84 %
~ 8.9 % of the time herO gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 99.06 %
~ 25.46 % of the time herO gets 2nd or 4th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 88.05 %
~ 24.42 % of the time Sorry gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 2.58 %
~ 4.44 % of the time Pigbaby gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.51 % to ~ 96.1 %
~ 25.7 % of the time Sorry gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 2.59 %
~ 19.79 % of the time Sorry gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 2.56 %
~ 34.55 % of the time Reality gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 45.45 %
~ 30.03 % of the time Reality gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 45.41 %
~ 23.65 % of the time Rain gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 79.15 %
~ 16.57 % of the time herO gets 4th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 82.14 %
DreamHack Moscow Winning Chances YoDa has a ~ 11.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.45 % to ~ 16.84 % Life has a ~ 9.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 8.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.9 % to ~ 31.35 % Dear has a ~ 7.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.56 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Snute has a ~ 6.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 99.98 % First has a ~ 5.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.38 % Patience has a ~ 5.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % MMA has a ~ 5.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 69.47 % Happy has a ~ 4.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.2 % to ~ 4.16 % Golden has a ~ 3.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 8.79 % TRUE has a ~ 3.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.33 % Welmu has a ~ 2.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.84 % to ~ 12.38 % Stork has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % TargA has a ~ 2.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy has a ~ 2.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kas has a ~ 1.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi has a ~ 1.64 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Serral has a ~ 1.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.59 % Bly has a ~ 1.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.44 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke has a ~ 0.8 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DMC has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Noname has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Moscow Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 63.96 % if they win, with a ~ 6.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 99.98 % MMA would gain ~ 49.85 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 69.47 % Solar would gain ~ 17.46 % if they win, with a ~ 7.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.9 % to ~ 31.35 % Welmu would gain ~ 8.55 % if they win, with a ~ 2.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.84 % to ~ 12.38 % Golden would gain ~ 4.2 % if they win, with a ~ 3.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 8.79 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa would gain ~ 3.4 % if they win, with a ~ 11.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.45 % to ~ 16.84 % Happy would gain ~ 2.96 % if they win, with a ~ 4.83 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.2 % to ~ 4.16 % Dear would gain ~ 1.4 % if they win, with a ~ 7.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.56 % Serral would gain ~ 0.57 % if they win, with a ~ 1.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.59 % Oz would gain ~ 0.43 % if they win, with a ~ 1.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.44 % First would gain ~ 0.36 % if they win, with a ~ 5.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.38 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.32 % if they win, with a ~ 3.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.33 % Life would gain ~ 0.08 % if they win, with a ~ 9.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 5.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Stork would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Noname would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DMC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % BBoongBBoong would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bly would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kas would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
~ 5.52 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 96.92 %
~ 15.6 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 89.37 %
~ 10.08 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 85.24 %
~ 32.96 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 64.1 %
~ 67.04 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 22.23 %
~ 27.44 % of the time Snute gets 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 57.49 %
~ 28.54 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 21.97 %
~ 38.5 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 22.41 %
~ 61.5 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 44.55 %
~ 72.56 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 27.91 %
~ 71.46 % of the time Snute doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 41.64 %
~ 84.4 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 26.17 %
~ 4.87 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 38.57 %
~ 45.91 % of the time Snute gets 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 29.31 %
~ 54.09 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 41.72 %
~ 10.08 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.88 % to ~ 52.08 %
~ 93.53 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 31.6 %
~ 89.92 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 30.51 %
~ 14.05 % of the time MMA gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 32.76 %
~ 94.48 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 32.47 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Sep 01 8:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Moscow Player List! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.3 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.52 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 78.37 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
This update also has Flash's new Aligulac rating which gave him a pretty nice boost, and I removed Placeholder Tournament 2 since we're getting closer to Blizzcon and no new tournaments are being announced. I will probably remove Placeholder Tournament 1 in October. Biggest Winners Since 1 Day Ago Snute went up by ~ 22.88 %, going from ~ 14.71 % to ~ 37.59 % MMA went up by ~ 6.19 %, going from ~ 13.18 % to ~ 19.38 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.89 %, going from ~ 8.42 % to ~ 12.3 % Flash went up by ~ 3.82 %, going from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 21.74 % Solar went up by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 7.16 % to ~ 8.08 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Life went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 98.97 % to ~ 99.76 % Happy went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 0.52 % to ~ 1.24 % Welmu went up by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 3.68 % to ~ 3.99 % Dear went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.29 % Golden went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 2.58 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 0.74 %
Biggest Losers Since 1 Day Ago herO went down by ~ 5.6 %, going from ~ 48.75 % to ~ 43.15 % Classic went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 68.48 % to ~ 63.72 % viOLet went down by ~ 4.41 %, going from ~ 27.89 % to ~ 23.48 % soO went down by ~ 4.34 %, going from ~ 61.42 % to ~ 57.08 % Rain went down by ~ 3.72 %, going from ~ 30.31 % to ~ 26.59 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Pigbaby went down by ~ 3.22 %, going from ~ 29.35 % to ~ 26.13 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.92 %, going from ~ 13.18 % to ~ 11.26 % sOs went down by ~ 1.8 %, going from ~ 84.55 % to ~ 82.75 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.41 %, going from ~ 14.18 % to ~ 12.76 % HerO went down by ~ 1.38 %, going from ~ 7.03 % to ~ 5.65 % PartinG went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 8.57 % to ~ 7.38 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 12.06 % to ~ 11.05 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 91.57 % to ~ 90.6 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 8.54 % to ~ 7.67 % Maru went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 6.32 % to ~ 5.6 % Cure went down by ~ 0.45 %, going from ~ 1.49 % to ~ 1.04 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.34 %, going from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 1.96 % Jim went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 0.89 % to ~ 0.6 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 2.38 % to ~ 2.11 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 5.47 % to ~ 5.2 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 2.69 % to ~ 2.42 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 0.29 % Trap went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.04 %
With the addition of the DreamHack Moscow player list, the chances of 1+ foreigners qualifying for Blizzcon went from ~ 51.29 % up to ~ 64.08 %, and the chances for 2+ foreigners went from ~ 9.33 % up to ~ 15.39 %.
Foreign Hopes Snute ~ 25.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 37.59 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.76 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 6.29 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 11.26 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 2.88 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.2 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 2.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.99 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
MajOr ~ 1.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.42 % chance overall. TLO ~ 1.05 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.89 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.91 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.7 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.7 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.24 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.74 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.69 % chance overall. Jim ~ 0.28 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.6 % chance overall. Nerchio ~ 0.16 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.29 % chance overall. Bly ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Kas ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Serral ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Grubby ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. BlinG ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. iaguz ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. neeb ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. KrasS ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. puCK ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
DreamHack Moscow Winning Chances YoDa has a ~ 11.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 16.65 % Life has a ~ 9.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 9.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 8.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 19.39 % Dear has a ~ 7.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.55 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Snute has a ~ 6.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 99.92 % First has a ~ 5.89 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.65 % Patience has a ~ 5.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Happy has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 4.4 % MMA has a ~ 5.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 67.81 % Golden has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 5.35 % Welmu has a ~ 2.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 12.8 % TargA has a ~ 2.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Stork has a ~ 2.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Bly has a ~ 2.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.56 % Daisy has a ~ 2.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Kas has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.51 % Serral has a ~ 1.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.41 % elfi has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.66 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 1.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.8 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko has a ~ 0.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus has a ~ 0.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % CoolTea has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Moscow Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 62.32 % if they win, with a ~ 6.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 99.92 % MMA would gain ~ 48.44 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 67.81 % Solar would gain ~ 11.31 % if they win, with a ~ 8.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 19.39 % Welmu would gain ~ 8.8 % if they win, with a ~ 2.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 12.8 % YoDa would gain ~ 4.34 % if they win, with a ~ 11.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 16.65 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Happy would gain ~ 3.16 % if they win, with a ~ 5.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 4.4 % Golden would gain ~ 2.76 % if they win, with a ~ 3.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 5.35 % Dear would gain ~ 2.26 % if they win, with a ~ 7.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.55 % Oz would gain ~ 0.65 % if they win, with a ~ 1.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.66 % First would gain ~ 0.6 % if they win, with a ~ 5.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.65 % Bly would gain ~ 0.53 % if they win, with a ~ 2.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.56 % Kas would gain ~ 0.49 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.51 % Serral would gain ~ 0.4 % if they win, with a ~ 1.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.41 % Life would gain ~ 0.24 % if they win, with a ~ 9.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0.05 % if they win, with a ~ 5.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Daisy would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Stork would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % CoolTea would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % BBoongBBoong would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.7 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Moscow Top 50 Events (more here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=36 ) ~ 5.73 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 93.64 %
~ 10.38 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 72.7 %
~ 28.62 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 24.34 %
~ 16.11 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 80.15 %
~ 71.38 % of the time Snute doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 42.92 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 4.93 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 38.77 %
~ 33.78 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 61.64 %
~ 93.12 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 32.99 %
~ 28.05 % of the time Snute gets 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 55.11 %
~ 28.84 % of the time MMA gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 14.38 %
~ 66.22 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 25.34 %
~ 17.67 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 44.77 %
~ 94.27 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 34.2 %
~ 89.62 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 33.54 %
~ 71.95 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 30.78 %
~ 94.93 % of the time MMA doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 16.79 %
~ 71.16 % of the time MMA doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 21.4 %
~ 83.89 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 29.44 %
~ 37.6 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 26.1 %
~ 46.3 % of the time Snute gets 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 32.14 %
~ 53.7 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 42.31 %
~ 62.4 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 44.53 %
~ 82.33 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 36.06 %
~ 6.59 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 15.33 %
~ 5.73 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 88.62 %
~ 91.99 % of the time Solar doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 7.09 %
~ 95.07 % of the time MMA doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 18.37 %
~ 6.11 % of the time Solar gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 10.47 %
~ 4.97 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 3.83 %
~ 88.94 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 11.77 %
~ 43.32 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 35.03 %
~ 56.68 % of the time Snute gets 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 39.57 %
~ 3.55 % of the time Welmu gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 5.82 %
~ 9.36 % of the time Happy gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 2.95 %
~ 28.86 % of the time Happy gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 0.56 %
~ 71.14 % of the time Happy doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.51 %
~ 93.41 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 12.09 %
~ 97.32 % of the time Welmu doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 3.76 %
~ 92.59 % of the time Dear doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Dear's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 0.1 %
~ 14.33 % of the time Happy gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 3.25 %
~ 94.86 % of the time Happy doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.06 %
~ 93.89 % of the time Solar doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 7.92 %
~ 93.12 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 95.08 %
~ 95.03 % of the time Happy doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.1 %
~ 4.29 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 2.99 %
~ 96.32 % of the time Golden doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 2.48 %
~ 94.27 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 94.99 %
~ 6.29 % of the time Life gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 %
~ 96.45 % of the time Welmu doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 3.93 %
~ 94.11 % of the time First doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change First's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.01 %
Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 13.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 12.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 8.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1200
So right now we have - 8 players fully locked in (Hyun, MC, Taeja, StarDust, Polt, San, Zest, Bomber) 3 players almost certain with 90% or higher (Life, Jaedong, jjakji) 3 players with great chances over 60% (sOs, Classic, soO) 4 players with decent chances over 20% (herO, Rain, Pigbaby, viOLet) 6 players to look out for a miracle run with over 10% (Flash, Snute, Scarlett, MMA, Bunny, Innovation) 16 players with poor chances over 1% (full list of players here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player_list )
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.21 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.39 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.78 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,675 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago Life went up by ~ 33.81 %, going from ~ 65.15 % to ~ 98.97 % Flash went up by ~ 11.2 %, going from ~ 6.71 % to ~ 17.91 % Snute went up by ~ 3.5 %, going from ~ 11.22 % to ~ 14.72 %
Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago herO went down by ~ 15.74 %, going from ~ 64.5 % to ~ 48.76 % sOs went down by ~ 8.82 %, going from ~ 93.34 % to ~ 84.52 % Scarlett went down by ~ 5.61 %, going from ~ 19.79 % to ~ 14.18 % Jaedong went down by ~ 3.12 %, going from ~ 97.7 % to ~ 94.58 % soO went down by ~ 2.53 %, going from ~ 63.94 % to ~ 61.42 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
jjakji went down by ~ 2.15 %, going from ~ 93.71 % to ~ 91.56 % MMA went down by ~ 1.87 %, going from ~ 15.05 % to ~ 13.18 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.66 %, going from ~ 30.99 % to ~ 29.34 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 14.58 % to ~ 13.19 % Classic went down by ~ 0.95 %, going from ~ 69.44 % to ~ 68.48 % Rain went down by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 31.2 % to ~ 30.35 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 9.04 % to ~ 8.42 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 9.19 % to ~ 8.57 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 12.56 % to ~ 12.05 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 3.07 % to ~ 2.68 % Maru went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 6.63 % to ~ 6.34 % Heart went down by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 4.79 % to ~ 4.54 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.93 % to ~ 0.78 % HuK went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 1.7 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 28.04 % to ~ 27.92 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 2.38 % HerO went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 7.15 % to ~ 7.04 % Solar went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 7.25 % to ~ 7.14 %
Flash now has the #2 Headband and Effort still holds the #1 Headband. Will we see another #1 vs #2 match this year? With this tournament, the chances of 1+ foreigners qualifying for Blizzcon went from ~ 53.75 % down to ~ 51.29 %, and the chances for 2+ foreigners went from ~ 10.87 % down to ~ 9.33 %.
Foreign Hopes Snute ~ 9.99 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 14.71 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 9.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 14.18 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 9.35 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.17 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 3.81 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.47 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 2.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.68 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
MajOr ~ 1.85 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.69 % chance overall. TLO ~ 1.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.96 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.13 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.7 % chance overall. Jim ~ 0.61 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.89 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.79 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.45 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.63 % chance overall. Nerchio ~ 0.39 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.54 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.36 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.52 % chance overall. Grubby ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.03 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. BlinG ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. iaguz ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Bly ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. neeb ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Kas ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Serral ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. KrasS ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. puCK ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. TooDming ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Has ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. qxc ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. XiGua ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. ShoWTimE ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. HeRoMaRinE ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Starbuck ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. BabyKnight ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances for Seeds Bomber has a ~ 35.42 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 32.3 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 31.33 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 24.56 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 23.84 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HyuN has a ~ 23.26 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 22.4 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.14 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 21.35 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 19.9 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 19.68 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 18.39 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 18.06 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 17.87 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 17.57 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 17.44 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 17.24 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 16.79 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 16.2 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.88 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.22 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 15.22 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 14.87 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 14.6 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 14.45 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 14.45 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 14.28 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 14.06 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 13.53 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 13.48 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 13.46 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 13.3 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 13.22 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 13.2 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 13.06 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 12.67 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.62 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 12.57 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 12.54 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 12.22 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.15 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 12.14 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 11.77 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 11.74 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 11.57 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 11.45 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.4 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.4 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.03 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 10.98 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 10.86 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 10.68 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.65 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.64 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.57 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.57 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 10.55 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.25 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 10.24 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 10.1 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.04 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 9.98 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 9.93 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 9.8 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 9.78 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 9.76 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 9.73 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 9.68 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 9.6 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 9.34 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 9.02 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 8.87 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 8.51 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 8.51 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 8.46 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 8.43 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 8.34 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 7.91 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 7.45 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 7.23 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 6.96 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.92 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.76 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 6.76 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.71 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.67 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 6.62 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.54 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 6.49 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 6.39 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.27 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 6.2 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.18 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 6.18 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.14 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.02 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.99 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.83 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 5.8 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 5.79 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 5.71 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 5.67 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 5.63 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 5.6 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 5.6 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 5.57 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 5.57 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.48 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.34 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 5.23 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 4.99 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 4.98 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 4.91 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 4.68 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 4.65 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 4.39 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 4.31 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 4.3 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.97 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.86 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 3.73 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 3.66 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 3.65 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.62 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 3.6 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 3.52 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 3.51 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 3.37 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 3.35 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 3.33 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 3.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 3.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.97 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 2.89 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.84 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 2.82 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.81 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 2.8 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.78 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 2.76 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.76 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.72 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.69 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.68 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 2.68 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 2.54 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.49 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.49 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 2.44 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.38 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 2.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.37 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.32 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 2.31 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.31 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.3 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.29 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.27 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 2.25 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.23 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.19 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 2.19 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 2.15 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 2.08 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.98 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 1.98 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.97 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.97 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.83 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.83 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.81 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.79 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.79 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.75 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.68 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.66 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.66 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.63 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 1.61 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.59 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.58 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 1.57 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.55 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.54 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 1.5 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.5 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.47 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 1.46 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 1.45 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.44 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.43 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.42 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 1.42 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.38 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.37 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.33 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.31 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.29 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 1.28 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.28 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.28 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.24 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.17 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.15 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 1.15 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 1.13 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.12 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.11 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 1.09 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.05 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.04 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.03 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. More on the website...
Chances for 1st Round Blizzcon Matches ~ 17.29 % chance to see Life vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 14.19 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.78 % chance to see Bomber vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.48 % chance to see Life vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.17 % chance to see Life vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 12.87 % chance to see TaeJa vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.72 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.57 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.9 % chance to see Life vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.78 % chance to see sOs vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.57 % chance to see HyuN vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.53 % chance to see Jaedong vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.51 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.47 % chance to see Life vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.1 % chance to see jjakji vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.04 % chance to see San vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.01 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.89 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.84 % chance to see jjakji vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.78 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.93 % chance to see HyuN vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.88 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.52 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.3 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.16 % chance to see San vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.06 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.05 % chance to see MC vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.99 % chance to see Polt vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.74 % chance to see sOs vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.67 % chance to see San vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.57 % chance to see Life vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.45 % chance to see Polt vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.41 % chance to see HyuN vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.34 % chance to see Bomber vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.28 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.27 % chance to see StarDust vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.07 % chance to see MC vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.79 % chance to see HyuN vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.62 % chance to see TaeJa vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.54 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.38 % chance to see soO vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.28 % chance to see Polt vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.13 % chance to see Classic vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.13 % chance to see MC vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.1 % chance to see San vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.79 % chance to see soO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.64 % chance to see Life vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.57 % chance to see Bomber vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.05 % chance to see HyuN vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.99 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.87 % chance to see herO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.75 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.74 % chance to see StarDust vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.69 % chance to see San vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.6 % chance to see Polt vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.47 % chance to see Bomber vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.77 % chance to see MC vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.68 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.61 % chance to see viOLet vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.52 % chance to see Rain vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.45 % chance to see Rain vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.68 % chance to see TaeJa vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.54 % chance to see Rain vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.51 % chance to see San vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.48 % chance to see Polt vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.47 % chance to see TaeJa vs viOLet as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.4 % chance to see Rain vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.37 % chance to see viOLet vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.36 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.32 % chance to see Bomber vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.3 % chance to see Rain vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.2 % chance to see viOLet vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.12 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.12 % chance to see viOLet vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.09 % chance to see Zest vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.06 % chance to see viOLet vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.04 % chance to see viOLet vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.03 % chance to see MC vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.96 % chance to see Rain vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.95 % chance to see TaeJa vs Rain as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.92 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.67 % chance to see viOLet vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.44 % chance to see Rain vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.35 % chance to see Flash vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.33 % chance to see MC vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.29 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.22 % chance to see Polt vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.18 % chance to see TaeJa vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.17 % chance to see Bomber vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.17 % chance to see Flash vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.16 % chance to see San vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.06 % chance to see Bomber vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.03 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.01 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.96 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.95 % chance to see San vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.92 % chance to see Bomber vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.89 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.89 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.88 % chance to see Snute vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.87 % chance to see jjakji vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.87 % chance to see Polt vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.83 % chance to see San vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.83 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.82 % chance to see Zest vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.82 % chance to see MMA vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.8 % chance to see MMA vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.8 % chance to see HyuN vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chance to see TaeJa vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.71 % chance to see MC vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.7 % chance to see Scarlett vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.7 % chance to see Scarlett vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.67 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.66 % chance to see INnoVation vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.64 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.63 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.62 % chance to see TaeJa vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.6 % chance to see Polt vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.58 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.52 % chance to see INnoVation vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.5 % chance to see Jaedong vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.48 % chance to see Polt vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.42 % chance to see HyuN vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.38 % chance to see MC vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.37 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.35 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.35 % chance to see Snute vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.34 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.33 % chance to see TaeJa vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.33 % chance to see ForGG vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.32 % chance to see HyuN vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.26 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. More on the website...
~ 38.65 % of the time Flash loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 3.75 %
~ 61.35 % of the time Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 26.83 %
~ 10.07 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.83 %
~ 10.36 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 68.26 %
~ 89.93 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 8.74 %
~ 43.29 % of the time Flash gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 10.89 %
~ 56.71 % of the time Flash doesn't get 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 23.27 %
~ 89.64 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 12.09 %
~ 5.72 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S StarDust gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 43.29 % of the time StarDust doesn't get 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 10.89 %
~ 27.69 % of the time Flash gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 9.43 %
~ 56.71 % of the time StarDust gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 23.27 %
~ 6.36 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 90.63 %
~ 4.35 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Flash gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.62 %
~ 4.25 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S INnoVation gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.81 %
~ 4.17 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Zest gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.84 %
~ 3.74 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S PartinG gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.83 %
~ 3.67 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Maru gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.82 %
~ 3.55 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Cure gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.84 %
~ 1.49 % of the time Flash gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 40.97 %
We're now running out of tournaments, only the 3 WCS regions, 2 Dreamhacks, KeSPA Cup, Red Bull Washington, and the 2 placeholders left. I may have to remove the 2 placeholders soon if they don't get filled or at least 1 of them, any feedback on this?
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 26 11:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis Redo! Oops I messed up the previous one....REDO! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
WCS Point Cutoffs - I simplified the WCS Point Cutoffs view a bit. Now it only shows 7 different points: the highest points with 0% chances, the lowest points with better than 0% chances, 2500 points, the points closest to 50% chances, 3000 points, the highest points with less than 100% chances, and the lowest points with 100% chances. You can still click "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to show more. + Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.95 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.39 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 86.68 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago herO went up by ~ 11.09 %, going from ~ 44.5 % to ~ 55.59 % Life went up by ~ 8.1 %, going from ~ 59.07 % to ~ 67.17 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.65 %, going from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 2.52 % Welmu went up by ~ 1.53 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 3.62 % soO went up by ~ 1.25 %, going from ~ 60.53 % to ~ 61.78 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
TLO went up by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 1.78 % Rain went up by ~ 0.63 %, going from ~ 32.04 % to ~ 32.66 % Cure went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.73 % Solar went up by ~ 0.33 %, going from ~ 7.66 % to ~ 7.99 %
Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago Snute went down by ~ 10.83 %, going from ~ 22.01 % to ~ 11.18 % Scarlett went down by ~ 2.35 %, going from ~ 22.54 % to ~ 20.18 % Maru went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 9.17 % to ~ 6.91 % sOs went down by ~ 1.37 %, going from ~ 93.72 % to ~ 92.36 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 37.81 % to ~ 36.47 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
viOLet went down by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 29.91 % to ~ 28.75 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.84 %, going from ~ 95.28 % to ~ 94.44 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 10.03 % to ~ 9.28 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 13.74 % to ~ 13.08 % Classic went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 64.18 % to ~ 63.56 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 9.68 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 15.29 % to ~ 14.78 % HerO went down by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 7.79 % to ~ 7.33 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 3.64 % to ~ 3.22 % Jaedong went down by ~ 0.39 %, going from ~ 98.43 % to ~ 98.04 % Heart went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 4.85 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 8.97 % to ~ 8.71 % HuK went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 2.06 % to ~ 1.87 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 2.14 % to ~ 2.03 %
GSL S3 Code S - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.65 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 42.35 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.32 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.37 %. ~ 46.68 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 2.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.22 % of the time Soulkey wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.49 %. ~ 54.78 % of the time Soulkey loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.81 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.4 %. ~ 56.19 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 13.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.12 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 20.93 %. ~ 37.88 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PartinG is at ~ 9.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.83 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.87 %. ~ 47.17 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 6.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.52 % of the time Maru wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.76 %. ~ 50.48 % of the time Maru loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.53 % of the time Stats wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.34 %. ~ 64.47 % of the time Stats loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S EffOrt has the #1 headband! sOs has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #1 headband! - Rain is at ~ 32.66 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.5 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 43.82 %. ~ 38.5 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 14.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 92.36 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.58 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 97.55 %. ~ 45.42 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 86.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 7.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.33 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.12 %. ~ 47.67 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 31.59 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 68.41 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Flash is at ~ 7.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.25 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.22 %. ~ 42.75 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.71 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 61.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.94 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 78.71 %. ~ 48.06 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 43.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DongRaeGu is at ~ 2.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.74 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.37 %. ~ 53.26 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 2.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.07 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.15 %. ~ 55.93 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
Winning Chances Rain has a ~ 12.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 32.66 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 11.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.08 % to ~ 99.87 % sOs has a ~ 9.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.36 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 9.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 8.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.3 % to ~ 64.08 % + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +
PartinG has a ~ 7.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.68 % to ~ 97.61 % Solar has a ~ 6.96 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 99.96 % Maru has a ~ 5.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.91 % to ~ 99.99 % Soulkey has a ~ 4.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.03 % to ~ 41.12 % Cure has a ~ 4.85 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 14.8 % soO has a ~ 4.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.78 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 4.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.52 % to ~ 56.55 % Reality has a ~ 3.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 17.97 % Stats has a ~ 2.9 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 4.19 % TRUE has a ~ 2.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 99.4 % EffOrt has a ~ 1.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 1.69 %
Winning Gains TRUE would gain ~ 96.68 % if they win, with a ~ 2.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 99.4 % Maru would gain ~ 93.08 % if they win, with a ~ 5.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.91 % to ~ 99.99 % Solar would gain ~ 91.97 % if they win, with a ~ 6.96 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 99.96 % PartinG would gain ~ 87.92 % if they win, with a ~ 7.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.68 % to ~ 97.61 % INnoVation would gain ~ 86.78 % if they win, with a ~ 11.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.08 % to ~ 99.87 % + Show Spoiler [More Winning Gains] +
Rain would gain ~ 67.34 % if they win, with a ~ 12.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 32.66 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 56.79 % if they win, with a ~ 8.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.3 % to ~ 64.08 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 54.03 % if they win, with a ~ 4.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.52 % to ~ 56.55 % Soulkey would gain ~ 39.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.03 % to ~ 41.12 % soO would gain ~ 38.22 % if they win, with a ~ 4.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 61.78 % to ~ 100 % Reality would gain ~ 17.34 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 17.97 % Cure would gain ~ 14.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 14.8 % sOs would gain ~ 7.64 % if they win, with a ~ 9.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 92.36 % to ~ 100 % Stats would gain ~ 4.07 % if they win, with a ~ 2.9 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 4.19 % EffOrt would gain ~ 1.66 % if they win, with a ~ 1.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 1.69 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Soulkey has a ~ 4.87 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Reality has a ~ 3.01 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Zest has a ~ 9.08 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Cure has a ~ 4.85 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 21.8036
Group B Rain has a ~ 12.69 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S sOs has a ~ 9.45 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S EffOrt has a ~ 1.57 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Solar has a ~ 6.96 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.6749
Group C PartinG has a ~ 7.6 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S INnoVation has a ~ 11.88 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Maru has a ~ 5.77 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Stats has a ~ 2.9 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 28.1467
Group D DongRaeGu has a ~ 4.19 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Flash has a ~ 8.24 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S soO has a ~ 4.42 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S TRUE has a ~ 2.53 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 19.3749
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores B > C > A > D
Group A Soulkey is at ~ 2.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Reality is at ~ 0.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Cure is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.387
Group B Rain is at ~ 32.66 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 sOs is at ~ 92.36 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 EffOrt is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Solar is at ~ 7.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 133.033
Group C PartinG is at ~ 9.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 INnoVation is at ~ 13.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Maru is at ~ 6.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stats is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 29.8007
Group D DongRaeGu is at ~ 2.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Flash is at ~ 7.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 soO is at ~ 61.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TRUE is at ~ 2.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 74.3261
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores B > A > D > C
Group A Soulkey's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.18 % Reality's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.04 % Zest's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Cure's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.209437
Group B Rain's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.95 % sOs's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.23 % EffOrt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Solar's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.17 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.545097
Group C PartinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.06 % INnoVation's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.6 % Maru's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.22 % Stats's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.296031
Group D DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.03 % Flash's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.1 % soO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 1.79 % TRUE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.91951
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores A > C > B > D
Group A When Soulkey wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.46 % When Soulkey loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.03 % When Reality wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.78 % When Reality loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.61 % When Zest wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Zest loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Cure wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.64 % When Cure loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.73 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 7.24434
Group B When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 11.16 % When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 17.82 % When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.19 % When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.24 % When EffOrt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When EffOrt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When Solar wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.13 % When Solar loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.83 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 55.4508
Group C When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.19 % When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.17 % When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.85 % When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 12.87 % When Maru wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.85 % When Maru loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.72 % When Stats wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.22 % When Stats loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.12 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 51.9908
Group D When DongRaeGu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.85 % When DongRaeGu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.5 % When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.92 % When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.59 % When soO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 16.93 % When soO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 18.29 % When TRUE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.42 % When TRUE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.7 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 58.2083
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores D > B > C > A
Group A Soulkey has an overall Aligulac rating of 1938 Reality has an overall Aligulac rating of 1814 Zest has an overall Aligulac rating of 2030 Cure has an overall Aligulac rating of 1898 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7680
Group B Rain has an overall Aligulac rating of 2110 sOs has an overall Aligulac rating of 2049 EffOrt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1740 Solar has an overall Aligulac rating of 2006 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7905
Group C PartinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1989 INnoVation has an overall Aligulac rating of 2102 Maru has an overall Aligulac rating of 1944 Stats has an overall Aligulac rating of 1812 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7847
Group D DongRaeGu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1891 Flash has an overall Aligulac rating of 2014 soO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1894 TRUE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1797 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7596
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores B > C > A > D
Group A has a 1st place, a 2nd place, two 3rd places, and a 4th place Group B has three 1st places, a 2nd place, and a 3rd place Group C has three 2nd places, a 3rd place, and a 4th place Group D has a 1st place, a 3rd place, and three 4th places
Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Rain, sOs, EffOrt, and Solar! Group A is our NEW 2nd place Group of Death with Zest, Soulkey, Reality, and Cure!
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 26 5:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
WCS Point Cutoffs - I simplified the WCS Point Cutoffs view a bit. Now it only shows 7 different points: the highest points with 0% chances, the lowest points with better than 0% chances, 2500 points, the points closest to 50% chances, 3000 points, the highest points with less than 100% chances, and the lowest points with 100% chances. You can still click "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to show more. + Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.07 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.82 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 87.44 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners Since 4 Days Ago viOLet went up by ~ 17.85 %, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 29.08 % herO went up by ~ 10.02 %, going from ~ 45.97 % to ~ 55.99 % MMA went up by ~ 8.31 %, going from ~ 8.31 % to ~ 16.63 % Life went up by ~ 5.56 %, going from ~ 62.67 % to ~ 68.23 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.28 %, going from ~ 6.15 % to ~ 9.42 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.52 % Flash went up by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 7.24 % Cure went up by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.73 %
Biggest Losers Since 4 Days Ago Bunny went down by ~ 13.8 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 14.74 % First went down by ~ 6.4 %, going from ~ 6.46 % to ~ 0.06 % Snute went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 16.14 % to ~ 11.38 % Scarlett went down by ~ 2.89 %, going from ~ 23.22 % to ~ 20.33 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 2.35 %, going from ~ 39.21 % to ~ 36.86 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
MajOr went down by ~ 2.25 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 3.28 % Maru went down by ~ 1.96 %, going from ~ 9.12 % to ~ 7.17 % Classic went down by ~ 1.88 %, going from ~ 65.97 % to ~ 64.1 % soO went down by ~ 1.64 %, going from ~ 61.84 % to ~ 60.2 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.52 %, going from ~ 14.05 % to ~ 12.53 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 99.42 % to ~ 98.17 % sOs went down by ~ 1.25 %, going from ~ 93.89 % to ~ 92.64 % Rain went down by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 32.91 % to ~ 31.8 % HerO went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 7.44 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 10.6 % to ~ 9.82 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 95.51 % to ~ 94.76 % Heart went down by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 5.32 % to ~ 4.87 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 5.55 % Solar went down by ~ 0.4 %, going from ~ 8.04 % to ~ 7.64 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 0.98 % Jim went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 0.98 % HuK went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 2.05 % to ~ 1.89 % Golden went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 2.67 % to ~ 2.52 %
GSL S3 Code S - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 13.91 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 11.08 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 2.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.26 % of the time Soulkey wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.61 %. ~ 12.75 % of the time Soulkey loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.18 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.48 %. ~ 12.8 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.1 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.49 %. ~ 13.9 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 12.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.64 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 21.22 %. ~ 10.36 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PartinG is at ~ 9.82 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 13.42 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.86 %. ~ 11.56 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 7.16 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.67 % of the time Maru wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.91 %. ~ 12.33 % of the time Maru loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.14 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.11 % of the time Stats wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.32 %. ~ 13.89 % of the time Stats loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Rain is at ~ 31.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.87 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 43.39 %. ~ 10.13 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 14.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 92.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.2 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 97.49 %. ~ 10.81 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 86.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 7.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.77 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 14.83 %. ~ 12.23 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 9.65 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 15.34 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Flash is at ~ 7.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 13.58 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.76 %. ~ 11.4 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 60.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.64 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 79.27 %. ~ 13.35 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 43.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DongRaeGu is at ~ 2.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.55 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.43 %. ~ 13.46 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 2.75 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 10.41 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.56 %. ~ 14.6 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Soulkey has a ~ 5.25 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Reality has a ~ 3.15 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Zest has a ~ 9.11 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Cure has a ~ 4.74 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 22.2616
Group B Rain has a ~ 11.99 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S sOs has a ~ 9.72 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S EffOrt has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Solar has a ~ 6.63 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.1485
Group C PartinG has a ~ 7.69 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S INnoVation has a ~ 11.38 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Maru has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Stats has a ~ 3.38 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 28.4353
Group D DongRaeGu has a ~ 4.2 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Flash has a ~ 8.16 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S soO has a ~ 4.23 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S TRUE has a ~ 2.55 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 19.1546
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores B > C > A > D
Group A Soulkey is at ~ 2.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Reality is at ~ 0.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Cure is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.642
Group B Rain is at ~ 31.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 sOs is at ~ 92.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 EffOrt is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Solar is at ~ 7.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 132.129
Group C PartinG is at ~ 9.82 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 INnoVation is at ~ 12.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Maru is at ~ 7.16 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stats is at ~ 0.14 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 29.6558
Group D DongRaeGu is at ~ 2.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Flash is at ~ 7.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 soO is at ~ 60.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TRUE is at ~ 2.75 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 72.7052
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores B > A > D > C
Group A Soulkey's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Reality's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Zest's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Cure's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.00530617
Group B Rain's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % sOs's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % EffOrt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Solar's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0117416
Group C PartinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.03 % INnoVation's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Maru's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Stats's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.00244307
Group D DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Flash's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % soO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % TRUE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.0104394
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores D > C > A > B
Group A When Soulkey wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.36 % When Soulkey loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.24 % When Reality wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.82 % When Reality loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.65 % When Zest wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Zest loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Cure wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.75 % When Cure loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.73 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 7.5537
Group B When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 11.58 % When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 16.94 % When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.84 % When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.36 % When EffOrt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When EffOrt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When Solar wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.19 % When Solar loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.49 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 54.476
Group C When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.05 % When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.28 % When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.69 % When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 12.31 % When Maru wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.75 % When Maru loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.97 % When Stats wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.17 % When Stats loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.14 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 52.3616
Group D When DongRaeGu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.91 % When DongRaeGu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.5 % When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.52 % When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.52 % When soO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 19.07 % When soO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 16.69 % When TRUE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.81 % When TRUE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.72 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 59.7334
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores D > B > C > A
Group A Soulkey has an overall Aligulac rating of 1938 Reality has an overall Aligulac rating of 1814 Zest has an overall Aligulac rating of 2030 Cure has an overall Aligulac rating of 1898 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7680
Group B Rain has an overall Aligulac rating of 2110 sOs has an overall Aligulac rating of 2049 EffOrt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1740 Solar has an overall Aligulac rating of 1988 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7887
Group C PartinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1989 INnoVation has an overall Aligulac rating of 2102 Maru has an overall Aligulac rating of 1944 Stats has an overall Aligulac rating of 1812 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7847
Group D DongRaeGu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1891 Flash has an overall Aligulac rating of 2014 soO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1894 TRUE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1797 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7596
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores B > C > A > D
Group A has a 2nd place, two 3 places, and a 4th place Group B has three 1st places, a 2nd place, and a 4th place Group C has three 2nd places, a 3rd place, and a 4th place Group D has two 1st places, a 3rd place, and two 4th places
Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Rain, sOs, EffOrt, and Solar! Group D is our 2nd place Group of Death with DongRaeGu, Flash, soO, and TRUE!
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.02 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.57 % of the time 2,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 10.23 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 39.45 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 52.82 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 67.87 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 83.01 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 88.32 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 98.79 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners viOLet went up by ~ 19.26 %, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 30.5 % MMA went up by ~ 8.51 %, going from ~ 8.31 % to ~ 16.82 % Life went up by ~ 8.14 %, going from ~ 62.67 % to ~ 70.8 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 6.15 % to ~ 9.46 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.53 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
Flash went up by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 7.26 % Cure went up by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.74 %
Biggest Losers Bunny went down by ~ 13.79 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 14.74 % First went down by ~ 6.4 %, going from ~ 6.46 % to ~ 0.06 % Snute went down by ~ 4.16 %, going from ~ 16.14 % to ~ 11.98 % Scarlett went down by ~ 2.54 %, going from ~ 23.22 % to ~ 20.68 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.11 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 3.42 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.78 %, going from ~ 39.21 % to ~ 37.43 % Classic went down by ~ 1.49 %, going from ~ 65.97 % to ~ 64.48 % herO went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 45.97 % to ~ 44.64 % soO went down by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 61.84 % to ~ 60.7 % sOs went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 93.89 % to ~ 92.82 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.06 %, going from ~ 99.42 % to ~ 98.36 % Rain went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 32.91 % to ~ 31.95 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 10.6 % to ~ 9.82 % HerO went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 7.7 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 14.05 % to ~ 13.6 % Solar went down by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 8.04 % to ~ 7.63 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 5.6 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 95.51 % to ~ 95.15 % Heart went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 5.32 % to ~ 5.04 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 0.99 % Jim went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 1.03 % Golden went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.67 % to ~ 2.53 % Maru went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 9.12 % to ~ 9.01 %
Winning Chances Rain has a ~ 11.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 31.81 % to ~ 99.99 % INnoVation has a ~ 11.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.53 % to ~ 99.87 % sOs has a ~ 9.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.64 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 9.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 8.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.24 % to ~ 64.36 % + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +
PartinG has a ~ 7.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.82 % to ~ 97.75 % Solar has a ~ 6.63 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.64 % to ~ 99.96 % Maru has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.16 % to ~ 99.99 % Soulkey has a ~ 5.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.25 % to ~ 42.12 % Cure has a ~ 4.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 15.15 % soO has a ~ 4.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 60.2 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 4.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.52 % to ~ 56.3 % Stats has a ~ 3.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 4.27 % Reality has a ~ 3.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.67 % to ~ 18.25 % TRUE has a ~ 2.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.75 % to ~ 99.43 % EffOrt has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 1.72 %
Winning Gains TRUE would gain ~ 96.69 % if they win, with a ~ 2.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.75 % to ~ 99.43 % Maru would gain ~ 92.82 % if they win, with a ~ 5.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.16 % to ~ 99.99 % Solar would gain ~ 92.31 % if they win, with a ~ 6.63 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.64 % to ~ 99.96 % PartinG would gain ~ 87.93 % if they win, with a ~ 7.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.82 % to ~ 97.75 % INnoVation would gain ~ 87.34 % if they win, with a ~ 11.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.53 % to ~ 99.87 % + Show Spoiler [More Winning Gains] +
Rain would gain ~ 68.19 % if they win, with a ~ 11.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 31.81 % to ~ 99.99 % Flash would gain ~ 57.12 % if they win, with a ~ 8.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.24 % to ~ 64.36 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 53.78 % if they win, with a ~ 4.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.52 % to ~ 56.3 % Soulkey would gain ~ 39.87 % if they win, with a ~ 5.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.25 % to ~ 42.12 % soO would gain ~ 39.8 % if they win, with a ~ 4.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 60.2 % to ~ 100 % Reality would gain ~ 17.59 % if they win, with a ~ 3.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.67 % to ~ 18.25 % Cure would gain ~ 14.42 % if they win, with a ~ 4.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 15.15 % sOs would gain ~ 7.36 % if they win, with a ~ 9.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 92.64 % to ~ 100 % Stats would gain ~ 4.12 % if they win, with a ~ 3.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 4.27 % EffOrt would gain ~ 1.69 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 1.72 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Aug 14 4:05am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
~ 0 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.06 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.96 % of the time 2,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 18.84 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 45.47 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.79 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 65.03 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 80.46 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 86.1 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 96.77 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Scarlett went up by ~ 0.84 %, going from ~ 42.42 % to ~ 43.26 % Life went up by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 61.6 % to ~ 62.41 % MajOr went up by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 5.68 % to ~ 6.13 % herO went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 48.18 % to ~ 48.54 % HerO went up by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 10.33 % to ~ 10.61 % Classic went up by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 70.21 % to ~ 70.49 % soO went up by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 48.08 % to ~ 48.35 % jjakji went up by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 94.88 % to ~ 95.09 % Heart went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 4.13 % to ~ 4.3 % Snute went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 24.15 % to ~ 24.31 %
Pigbaby went down by ~ 4.27 %, going from ~ 46.98 % to ~ 42.71 % Jaedong went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 98.46 % to ~ 98.28 % HuK went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 2.15 %
Here are the previews for the round of 16 groups. No countdowns since they aren't scheduled yet.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Scarlett is at ~ 43.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.98 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 57.23 %. ~ 38.02 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 20.46 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HerO is at ~ 10.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.59 % of the time HerO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 19.85 %. ~ 51.41 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.89 %. ------------------------------------------------- - viOLet is at ~ 11.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.03 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 20.93 %. ~ 51.97 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iaguz is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.4 % of the time iaguz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 58.6 % of the time iaguz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.13 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 36.87 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.91 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.09 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 98.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.8 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.96 %. ~ 55.2 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 96.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 42.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.15 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 66.04 %. ~ 63.85 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 29.5 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.33 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 33.67 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 1.33 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.11 % of the time Jim wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.63 %. ~ 49.89 % of the time Jim loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 0.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.52 % of the time Check wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.53 %. ~ 55.48 % of the time Check loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 2.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.04 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.4 %. ~ 60.96 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.07 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.31 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 27.69 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 6.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.97 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.69 %. ~ 45.03 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 4.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.09 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.46 %. ~ 49.91 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 22.63 % of the time neeb wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 77.37 % of the time neeb loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier TaeJa has a ~ 15.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 14.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 13.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 11.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 43.25 % to ~ 99.99 % Bomber has a ~ 8.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 5.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.28 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 5.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.12 % to ~ 88.75 % viOLet has a ~ 4.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.1 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 4.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.3 % to ~ 94.2 % HerO has a ~ 4.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.62 % to ~ 100 % Jim has a ~ 3.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.33 % to ~ 33.55 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 42.71 % to ~ 100 % HuK has a ~ 2.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.15 % to ~ 88.47 % iaguz has a ~ 1.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.97 % Check has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.24 % to ~ 12.2 % neeb has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 5.78 %
WCS AM S3 Premier Heart would gain ~ 89.9 % if they win, with a ~ 4.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.3 % to ~ 94.2 % HerO would gain ~ 89.38 % if they win, with a ~ 4.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.62 % to ~ 100 % viOLet would gain ~ 88.9 % if they win, with a ~ 4.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.1 % to ~ 100 % HuK would gain ~ 86.31 % if they win, with a ~ 2.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.15 % to ~ 88.47 % MajOr would gain ~ 82.63 % if they win, with a ~ 5.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.12 % to ~ 88.75 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 57.29 % if they win, with a ~ 2.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 42.71 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 56.74 % if they win, with a ~ 11.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 43.25 % to ~ 99.99 % Jim would gain ~ 32.23 % if they win, with a ~ 3.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.33 % to ~ 33.55 % Check would gain ~ 11.96 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.24 % to ~ 12.2 % neeb would gain ~ 5.76 % if they win, with a ~ 0.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 5.78 % iaguz would gain ~ 1.93 % if they win, with a ~ 1.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.97 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.72 % if they win, with a ~ 5.62 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.28 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 14.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. This one seems obvious, but keep in mind this is the group of death for Blizzcon Chances, so the effects on Blizzcon Chances are a big factor here, and if you're already at 100% chances then you can't go up or down. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A viOLet has a ~ 4.54 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HerO has a ~ 4.05 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Scarlett has a ~ 11.83 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier iaguz has a ~ 1.87 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 22.2918
Group B TaeJa has a ~ 15.66 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HyuN has a ~ 13.25 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Jaedong has a ~ 5.62 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Pigbaby has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 37.5178
Group C Bomber has a ~ 8.9 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HuK has a ~ 2.19 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Jim has a ~ 3.66 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Check has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 16.5604
Group D Polt has a ~ 14.1 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Heart has a ~ 4.16 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier MajOr has a ~ 5.02 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier neeb has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 23.6301
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores B > D > A > C
Group A viOLet is at ~ 11.09 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HerO is at ~ 10.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Scarlett is at ~ 43.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 iaguz is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 64.9971
Group B TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Jaedong is at ~ 98.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Pigbaby is at ~ 42.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 341.004
Group C Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HuK is at ~ 2.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Jim is at ~ 1.34 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Check is at ~ 0.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.726
Group D Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Heart is at ~ 4.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MajOr is at ~ 6.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 neeb is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 110.447
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores B >>>>>>>> D > C > A
Group A viOLet's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.03 % HerO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.3 % Scarlett's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.82 % iaguz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.15254
Group B TaeJa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % HyuN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Jaedong's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.18 % Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -4.26 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 4.43723
Group C Bomber's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % HuK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.15 % Jim's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.05 % Check's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.0777651
Group D Polt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Heart's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.17 % MajOr's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.44 % neeb's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.607589
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores B > C > D > A
Group A When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.82 % When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.07 % When HerO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.24 % When HerO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 8.73 % When Scarlett wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 13.99 % When Scarlett loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 22.81 % When iaguz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When iaguz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 73.7545
Group B When TaeJa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When TaeJa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When HyuN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When HyuN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Jaedong wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.68 % When Jaedong loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.36 % When Pigbaby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 23.33 % When Pigbaby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 13.22 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 39.5928
Group C When Bomber wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Bomber loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When HuK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.25 % When HuK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.08 % When Jim wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.31 % When Jim loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.31 % When Check wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.29 % When Check loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.23 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 8.46533
Group D When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Heart wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.16 % When Heart loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 4.17 % When MajOr wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.58 % When MajOr loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.59 % When neeb wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.07 % When neeb loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 18.5807
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores A > B > D > C
Group A viOLet has an overall Aligulac rating of 1793 HerO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1722 Scarlett has an overall Aligulac rating of 2003 iaguz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1621 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7139
Group B TaeJa has an overall Aligulac rating of 2095 HyuN has an overall Aligulac rating of 2071 Jaedong has an overall Aligulac rating of 1858 Pigbaby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1738 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7762
Group C Bomber has an overall Aligulac rating of 1888 HuK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1635 Jim has an overall Aligulac rating of 1723 Check has an overall Aligulac rating of 1621 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6867
Group D Polt has an overall Aligulac rating of 2015 Heart has an overall Aligulac rating of 1723 MajOr has an overall Aligulac rating of 1762 neeb has an overall Aligulac rating of 1370 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6870
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores B > A > D > C
Group A has a 1st place, a 2nd place, a 3rd place, and two 4th places Group B has four 1st places, and a 2nd place Group C has a 2nd place, a 3rd place, and three 4th places Group D has two 2nd places, and three 3rd places
Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to TaeJa, HyuN, Jaedong, and Pigbaby! Group A is our 2nd place Group of Death with viOLet, HerO, Scarlett, and iaguz, look out for this group too as it has by far the biggest effect on the Blizzcon Chances!
What do you think?
Poll: Group of Death?
Group B: HyuN, Jaedong, TaeJa, Pigbaby (345)
92%
Group A: viOLet, Scarlett, Iaguz, HerO (13)
3%
Group C: Check, Jim, Bomber, HuK (8)
2%
Group D: Polt, Neeb, Heart, MajOr (5)
1%
All of the groups are equally difficult. (4)
1%
375 total votes
Your vote: Group of Death?
(Vote): Group A: viOLet, Scarlett, Iaguz, HerO (Vote): Group B: HyuN, Jaedong, TaeJa, Pigbaby (Vote): Group C: Check, Jim, Bomber, HuK (Vote): Group D: Polt, Neeb, Heart, MajOr (Vote): All of the groups are equally difficult.
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--------UPDATE Wednesday, Aug 13 8:45pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Toronto Open Bracket Players! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
~ 0 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.06 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.54 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 40.19 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.15 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 71.64 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 85.28 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 96.41 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Snute went up by ~ 5.37 %, going from ~ 18.73 % to ~ 24.1 % Bunny went up by ~ 3.1 %, going from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 16.38 % Maru went up by ~ 1.73 %, going from ~ 10.43 % to ~ 12.16 % Jaedong went up by ~ 0.61 %, going from ~ 97.88 % to ~ 98.48 % Stats went up by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.38 % HuK went up by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 2.45 %
Life went down by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 63.01 % to ~ 61.5 % herO went down by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 49.18 % to ~ 48.07 % Classic went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 71.19 % to ~ 70.19 % soO went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 48.97 % to ~ 48.02 % Patience went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 4.66 % to ~ 3.8 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 43.38 % to ~ 42.56 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 48.38 % to ~ 47.62 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.47 %, going from ~ 17.95 % to ~ 17.48 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 11.62 % to ~ 11.21 % HerO went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 10.88 % to ~ 10.53 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 95.16 % to ~ 94.86 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 2.99 % to ~ 2.71 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 8.53 % to ~ 8.25 % Rain went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 9.28 % to ~ 9.01 % sOs went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 95.26 % to ~ 95.03 % Solar went down by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 7.71 % to ~ 7.5 % MMA went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 9.94 % to ~ 9.74 % Dear went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 5.52 % to ~ 5.32 % Golden went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 3.19 % to ~ 3.06 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 10.16 % to ~ 10.06 %
IEM Toronto Open Brackets Bunny has a ~ 51.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 19.51 % StarDust has a ~ 43.85 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Maru has a ~ 43.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.16 % to ~ 14.85 % Snute has a ~ 40.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.1 % to ~ 32.5 % Jaedong has a ~ 36.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.48 % to ~ 99.74 % Leenock has a ~ 33.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.3 % HuK has a ~ 27.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 2.91 % Oz has a ~ 22.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.27 % Kane has a ~ 22.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Revival has a ~ 21.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.08 % puCK has a ~ 19.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 0.48 % hendralisk has a ~ 16.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % desRow has a ~ 9.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Believe has a ~ 6.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bones has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Sasquatch has a ~ 1.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
IEM Toronto Open Brackets Snute would gain ~ 8.39 % if they win, with a ~ 40.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 24.1 % to ~ 32.5 % Bunny would gain ~ 3.13 % if they win, with a ~ 51.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 19.51 % Maru would gain ~ 2.69 % if they win, with a ~ 43.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.16 % to ~ 14.85 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.26 % if they win, with a ~ 36.03 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.48 % to ~ 99.74 % HuK would gain ~ 0.45 % if they win, with a ~ 27.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 2.91 % Leenock would gain ~ 0.14 % if they win, with a ~ 33.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.3 % Oz would gain ~ 0.13 % if they win, with a ~ 22.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.27 % puCK would gain ~ 0.09 % if they win, with a ~ 19.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 0.48 % Revival would gain ~ 0.04 % if they win, with a ~ 21.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.08 % Kane would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 22.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % hendralisk would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 16.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 43.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % desRow would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Believe would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bones would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.92 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Sasquatch would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
IEM Toronto TaeJa has a ~ 10.8 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 10.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.03 % to ~ 99.97 % HyuN has a ~ 9.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 8.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 8.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 7.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 42.56 % to ~ 72.91 % Flash has a ~ 6.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.77 % to ~ 3.37 % MC has a ~ 5.89 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 5.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.56 % to ~ 9.95 % YoDa has a ~ 5.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.44 % to ~ 4.75 % Bunny has a ~ 3.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 42.82 % viOLet has a ~ 3.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 37.41 % Maru has a ~ 2.94 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.16 % to ~ 36.58 % StarDust has a ~ 2.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MaSa has a ~ 2.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Snute has a ~ 2.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.1 % to ~ 79.33 % Leenock has a ~ 1.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.29 % Jaedong has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.48 % to ~ 100 % HuK has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 6.56 % Oz has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 3.02 % Revival has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.57 % Kane has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0 % puCK has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 1.2 %
IEM Toronto Snute would gain ~ 55.23 % if they win, with a ~ 2.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 24.1 % to ~ 79.33 % Scarlett would gain ~ 30.35 % if they win, with a ~ 7.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 42.56 % to ~ 72.91 % Bunny would gain ~ 26.44 % if they win, with a ~ 3.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 42.82 % viOLet would gain ~ 26.18 % if they win, with a ~ 3.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 37.41 % Maru would gain ~ 24.41 % if they win, with a ~ 2.94 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.16 % to ~ 36.58 % sOs would gain ~ 4.94 % if they win, with a ~ 10.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.03 % to ~ 99.97 % HuK would gain ~ 4.11 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 6.56 % First would gain ~ 3.39 % if they win, with a ~ 5.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.56 % to ~ 9.95 % Oz would gain ~ 2.88 % if they win, with a ~ 0.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 3.02 % Flash would gain ~ 2.6 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.77 % to ~ 3.37 % YoDa would gain ~ 2.32 % if they win, with a ~ 5.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.44 % to ~ 4.75 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.52 % if they win, with a ~ 1.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.48 % to ~ 100 % Leenock would gain ~ 1.14 % if they win, with a ~ 1.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.29 % puCK would gain ~ 0.82 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 1.2 % Revival would gain ~ 0.54 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.57 % MaSa would gain ~ 0.02 % if they win, with a ~ 2.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Zest would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 8.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Kane would gain ~ -0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 12 4:35pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM and Red Bull Updates! In this update I added the results of the IEM Toronto qualifiers with Zest and Flash qualifying, added Red Bull Detroit replacing Placeholder Tournament 3, and I added the seed for the winner of Red Bull Detroit to Red Bull Washington.
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
~ 0 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.09 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.84 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 41.07 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.71 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 72.09 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 86.03 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 96.69 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Life went down by ~ 2.61 %, going from ~ 66.31 % to ~ 63.7 % herO went down by ~ 1.97 %, going from ~ 52.68 % to ~ 50.71 % Classic went down by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 71.77 % to ~ 69.93 % soO went down by ~ 1.65 %, going from ~ 52.25 % to ~ 50.6 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.61 %, going from ~ 48.5 % to ~ 46.89 % Snute went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 20.08 % to ~ 18.78 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 13.2 % to ~ 12.02 % MMA went down by ~ 0.7 %, going from ~ 10.77 % to ~ 10.08 % sOs went down by ~ 0.63 %, going from ~ 96.04 % to ~ 95.41 % HerO went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 6.54 % to ~ 6.02 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 9.41 % to ~ 8.9 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 13.77 % to ~ 13.27 %
These changes had some big effects, probably mostly because of the removal of Placeholder Tournament 3, we are now down to just 2 placeholder tournaments.
IEM Toronto TaeJa has a ~ 11.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 10.93 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.42 % to ~ 99.97 % HyuN has a ~ 10.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 9.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 8.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 8.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.04 % to ~ 73.5 % MC has a ~ 6.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 6.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 9.98 % Flash has a ~ 5.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 2.86 % YoDa has a ~ 5.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 4.75 % viOLet has a ~ 3.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 38.41 % MaSa has a ~ 2.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Sacsri has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 2.91 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 39.77 % herO has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.72 % to ~ 98.85 % Rain has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 30.03 % San has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bunny has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 42.41 % PartinG has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 30.51 % Solar has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 25.66 % jjakji has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.17 % to ~ 100 % KingKong has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.11 % Maru has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 37.5 % ForGG has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 38.37 % Life has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 63.7 % to ~ 100 % Dear has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.74 % to ~ 23.84 % Snute has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.78 % to ~ 78.64 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 5.32 % VortiX has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 21.55 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 5.97 % Patience has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 9.5 % Classic has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.92 % to ~ 99.98 % Jaedong has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 1.32 % MMA has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 54.03 % soO has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.6 % to ~ 98.41 % TY has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.04 % Trap has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 9.98 % RagnaroK has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.27 % Bbyong has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 3.18 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 1.5 % Happy has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 4.01 % Cure has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.76 % Avenge has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 0.76 % Golden has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 10.14 % MajOr has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 14.74 % Stats has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 1.88 % Trust has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.98 % Pigbaby has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 46.89 % to ~ 97.25 % TRUE has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 6.74 % Jim has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 5.79 %
IEM Toronto Snute would gain ~ 59.85 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.78 % to ~ 78.64 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 50.36 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 46.89 % to ~ 97.25 % herO would gain ~ 48.13 % if they win, with a ~ 0.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.72 % to ~ 98.85 % soO would gain ~ 47.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.6 % to ~ 98.41 % MMA would gain ~ 43.96 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 54.03 % HerO would gain ~ 41.76 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.03 % to ~ 47.79 % Life would gain ~ 36.3 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.7 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 30.06 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 69.92 % to ~ 99.98 % Scarlett would gain ~ 29.46 % if they win, with a ~ 8.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.04 % to ~ 73.5 % Bunny would gain ~ 29.13 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 42.41 % ForGG would gain ~ 28.17 % if they win, with a ~ 0.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 38.37 % Maru would gain ~ 26.84 % if they win, with a ~ 0.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 37.5 % viOLet would gain ~ 26.39 % if they win, with a ~ 3.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 38.41 % INnoVation would gain ~ 21.86 % if they win, with a ~ 0.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 39.77 % PartinG would gain ~ 21.61 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 30.51 % Rain would gain ~ 20.28 % if they win, with a ~ 0.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 30.03 % Dear would gain ~ 18.1 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.74 % to ~ 23.84 % Solar would gain ~ 17.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 25.66 % VortiX would gain ~ 14.59 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 21.55 % MajOr would gain ~ 10.63 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 14.74 % Trap would gain ~ 9.4 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 9.98 % Heart would gain ~ 9.31 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.86 % to ~ 14.17 % Welmu would gain ~ 9.3 % if they win, with a ~ 0.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.7 % to ~ 11.99 % Golden would gain ~ 6.95 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 10.14 % TRUE would gain ~ 5.37 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 6.74 % Patience would gain ~ 4.86 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 9.5 % jjakji would gain ~ 4.83 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.17 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 4.56 % if they win, with a ~ 10.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.42 % to ~ 99.97 % Jim would gain ~ 4.32 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 5.79 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 4.14 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 5.32 % Soulkey would gain ~ 4.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 5.97 % Alicia would gain ~ 3.9 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 4.11 % Sen would gain ~ 3.74 % if they win, with a ~ 0.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 3.92 % First would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 6.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 9.98 % Happy would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 4.01 % Cure would gain ~ 2.61 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.76 % Bbyong would gain ~ 2.58 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 3.18 % Sacsri would gain ~ 2.58 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 2.91 % YoDa would gain ~ 2.26 % if they win, with a ~ 5.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 4.75 % Flash would gain ~ 2.23 % if they win, with a ~ 5.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 2.86 % Dayshi would gain ~ 1.99 % if they win, with a ~ 0.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 3.39 % ShoWTimE would gain ~ 1.99 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 2.18 % Nerchio would gain ~ 1.98 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.61 % to ~ 2.6 % Reality would gain ~ 1.91 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 2.01 % TY would gain ~ 1.89 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.04 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Stats would gain ~ 1.78 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 1.88 % EffOrt would gain ~ 1.68 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 1.76 % Hurricane would gain ~ 1.38 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 1.5 % Leenock would gain ~ 1.23 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 1.32 % Trust would gain ~ 0.93 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.98 %
Red Bull Detroit HyuN has a ~ 21.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 17.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.05 % to ~ 71.97 % MajOr has a ~ 9.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 12.84 % Bails has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Sacsri has a ~ 0.64 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 11.43 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.63 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 66.81 % herO has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.72 % to ~ 99.56 % TaeJa has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.41 % to ~ 99.99 % San has a ~ 0.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 0.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 55.6 % Bunny has a ~ 0.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 69.9 % KingKong has a ~ 0.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.4 % Zest has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.18 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 30.77 % Solar has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 51.06 % Dear has a ~ 0.48 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 49.02 % Life has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 63.71 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 0.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.78 % to ~ 91.02 % MC has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Maru has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 63.9 % ForGG has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.19 % to ~ 64.28 % Jaedong has a ~ 0.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 12.54 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 9.68 % VortiX has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 44.33 % First has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 34.5 % Patience has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 20.01 % Classic has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.93 % to ~ 99.99 % YoDa has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 13.99 % Ourk has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.15 % Flash has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 6.1 % Mvp has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.48 % Bomber has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bones has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Leenock has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 6.42 % soO has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.6 % to ~ 99.34 % Trap has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 10.67 % MMA has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 76.55 % Sora has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.18 % TY has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.99 % Pet has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.3 % RagnaroK has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.79 % Cure has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 3.73 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 2.29 % viOLet has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 80.4 % Bbyong has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 6.1 % Hydra has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.26 %
Red Bull Detroit Snute would gain ~ 72.24 % if they win, with a ~ 0.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.78 % to ~ 91.02 % viOLet would gain ~ 68.38 % if they win, with a ~ 0.31 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 80.4 % MMA would gain ~ 66.47 % if they win, with a ~ 0.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 76.55 % HerO would gain ~ 64.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.03 % to ~ 70.69 % Bunny would gain ~ 56.62 % if they win, with a ~ 0.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 69.9 % ForGG would gain ~ 54.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.19 % to ~ 64.28 % Maru would gain ~ 53.25 % if they win, with a ~ 0.44 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 63.9 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 51.82 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 46.88 % to ~ 98.71 % INnoVation would gain ~ 48.9 % if they win, with a ~ 0.63 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 66.81 % herO would gain ~ 48.84 % if they win, with a ~ 0.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.72 % to ~ 99.56 % soO would gain ~ 48.74 % if they win, with a ~ 0.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.6 % to ~ 99.34 % Rain would gain ~ 45.86 % if they win, with a ~ 0.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 55.6 % Dear would gain ~ 43.29 % if they win, with a ~ 0.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 49.02 % Solar would gain ~ 43.05 % if they win, with a ~ 0.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 51.06 % VortiX would gain ~ 37.36 % if they win, with a ~ 0.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 44.33 % Life would gain ~ 36.29 % if they win, with a ~ 0.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.71 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 30.07 % if they win, with a ~ 0.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 69.93 % to ~ 99.99 % Scarlett would gain ~ 27.92 % if they win, with a ~ 17.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.05 % to ~ 71.97 % First would gain ~ 27.89 % if they win, with a ~ 0.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 34.5 % Welmu would gain ~ 25.27 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.69 % to ~ 27.97 % Heart would gain ~ 23.68 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.86 % to ~ 28.54 % PartinG would gain ~ 21.87 % if they win, with a ~ 0.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 30.77 % Golden would gain ~ 20.48 % if they win, with a ~ 0.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 23.68 % TRUE would gain ~ 17.44 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 18.81 % Alicia would gain ~ 17.31 % if they win, with a ~ 0.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 17.51 % Sen would gain ~ 16.21 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 16.39 % TLO would gain ~ 16.12 % if they win, with a ~ 0.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 17.38 % Patience would gain ~ 15.38 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 20.01 % HuK would gain ~ 13.75 % if they win, with a ~ 0.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.51 % to ~ 16.26 % Oz would gain ~ 13.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 13.78 % YoDa would gain ~ 11.5 % if they win, with a ~ 0.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 13.99 % Sacsri would gain ~ 11.11 % if they win, with a ~ 0.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 11.43 % Soulkey would gain ~ 10.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 12.54 % Trap would gain ~ 10.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 10.67 % Jim would gain ~ 9.94 % if they win, with a ~ 0.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 11.41 % MajOr would gain ~ 8.73 % if they win, with a ~ 9.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 12.84 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 8.49 % if they win, with a ~ 0.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 9.68 % Dayshi would gain ~ 6.58 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 7.98 % Leenock would gain ~ 6.32 % if they win, with a ~ 0.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 6.42 % Happy would gain ~ 5.59 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 6.24 % Bbyong would gain ~ 5.51 % if they win, with a ~ 0.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 6.1 % Flash would gain ~ 5.46 % if they win, with a ~ 0.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 6.1 % MaNa would gain ~ 5.06 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.86 % to ~ 5.92 % jjakji would gain ~ 4.82 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.18 % to ~ 100 % Nerchio would gain ~ 4.82 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.61 % to ~ 5.43 % sOs would gain ~ 4.57 % if they win, with a ~ 0.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.41 % to ~ 99.99 % Check would gain ~ 3.62 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 3.88 % Cure would gain ~ 3.58 % if they win, with a ~ 0.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 3.73 % puCK would gain ~ 3.27 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.4 % to ~ 3.67 % Revival would gain ~ 2.93 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 2.95 % TY would gain ~ 2.85 % if they win, with a ~ 0.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.99 %
Red Bull Washington sOs has a ~ 22.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.41 % to ~ 99.97 % Scarlett has a ~ 19.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.05 % to ~ 71.46 % PartinG has a ~ 18.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 14.63 % Bomber has a ~ 13.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Trap has a ~ 9.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.48 % HyuN has a ~ 4.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 36.58 % Sacsri has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 14.83 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.92 % to ~ 70.01 % Bunny has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 70.18 % Solar has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 56.69 % herO has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.71 % to ~ 99.52 % Rain has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 61.66 % KingKong has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.58 % jjakji has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.17 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.77 % to ~ 88.43 % Life has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 63.7 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 12.41 % VortiX has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 50.01 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 15.99 % Dear has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 56.1 % Maru has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 64.89 % First has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 39.88 % ForGG has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 65.04 % Jaedong has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 8.12 % Patience has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 25.49 % soO has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.61 % to ~ 99.08 % YoDa has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 18.45 % Classic has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.93 % to ~ 100 % Pet has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.43 % Leenock has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 10.46 % Mvp has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.8 % RagnaroK has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.45 % MMA has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 72.1 % viOLet has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 75.77 % TY has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 3.41 % Bbyong has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 8.52 % Stats has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 2.68 % Golden has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 28.99 % Happy has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 7.74 % Symbol has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.3 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 2.86 % Cure has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 4.21 % TRUE has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.37 % to ~ 26.52 % Avenge has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.52 % Pigbaby has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 46.89 % to ~ 98.34 % Jim has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 15.43 % Trust has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 1.83 % GuMiho has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.14 % EffOrt has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 2.64 %
Red Bull Washington Snute would gain ~ 69.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.77 % to ~ 88.43 % viOLet would gain ~ 63.75 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 75.77 % MMA would gain ~ 62.02 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 72.1 % Bunny would gain ~ 56.9 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 70.18 % ForGG would gain ~ 54.84 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 65.04 % Maru would gain ~ 54.24 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 64.89 % INnoVation would gain ~ 52.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.92 % to ~ 70.01 % Rain would gain ~ 51.91 % if they win, with a ~ 0.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 61.66 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 51.46 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 46.89 % to ~ 98.34 % Dear would gain ~ 50.37 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 56.1 % herO would gain ~ 48.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.71 % to ~ 99.52 % Solar would gain ~ 48.68 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 56.69 % soO would gain ~ 48.47 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.61 % to ~ 99.08 % VortiX would gain ~ 43.04 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 50.01 % Life would gain ~ 36.3 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.7 % to ~ 100 % First would gain ~ 33.26 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 39.88 % MajOr would gain ~ 32.47 % if they win, with a ~ 0.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 36.58 % Classic would gain ~ 30.07 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 69.93 % to ~ 100 % Sen would gain ~ 28.1 % if they win, with a ~ 0.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 28.28 % Scarlett would gain ~ 27.41 % if they win, with a ~ 19.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.05 % to ~ 71.46 % Golden would gain ~ 25.8 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 28.99 % TRUE would gain ~ 25.14 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.37 % to ~ 26.52 % Patience would gain ~ 20.85 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 25.49 % YoDa would gain ~ 15.96 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 18.45 % Sacsri would gain ~ 14.5 % if they win, with a ~ 0.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 14.83 % Soulkey would gain ~ 14.11 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 15.99 % Jim would gain ~ 13.96 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 15.43 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 11.23 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 12.41 % Leenock would gain ~ 10.36 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 10.46 % Dayshi would gain ~ 9.63 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 11.03 % Bbyong would gain ~ 7.93 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 8.52 % Flash would gain ~ 7.49 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 8.12 % Happy would gain ~ 7.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 7.74 % Nerchio would gain ~ 6.39 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.61 % to ~ 7.01 % PartinG would gain ~ 5.73 % if they win, with a ~ 18.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 14.63 % jjakji would gain ~ 4.83 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.17 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 4.56 % if they win, with a ~ 22.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.41 % to ~ 99.97 % Cure would gain ~ 4.06 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 4.21 % ShoWTimE would gain ~ 3.57 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 3.76 % Reality would gain ~ 3.29 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 3.38 % TY would gain ~ 3.27 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 3.41 % Hurricane would gain ~ 2.74 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 2.86 % Stats would gain ~ 2.57 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 2.68 % EffOrt would gain ~ 2.56 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 2.64 % Trap would gain ~ 1.91 % if they win, with a ~ 9.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.48 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Trust would gain ~ 1.78 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 1.83 % Avenge would gain ~ 1.48 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.52 % RagnaroK would gain ~ 1.44 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.45 % Impact would gain ~ 1.08 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.08 % Mvp would gain ~ 0.79 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.8 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Aug 06 5:35pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Ro32 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
~ 0 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.17 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 2.75 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 45.85 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.35 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 69.84 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 82.27 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 94.07 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Scarlett went up by ~ 7.21 %, going from ~ 13.01 % to ~ 20.22 % Bunny went up by ~ 6.89 %, going from ~ 6.87 % to ~ 13.77 % sOs went up by ~ 6.58 %, going from ~ 89.83 % to ~ 96.41 % Jaedong went up by ~ 6.2 %, going from ~ 88.58 % to ~ 94.78 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 5.86 %, going from ~ 44.26 % to ~ 50.12 % MajOr went up by ~ 1.87 %, going from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 4.6 % YoDa went up by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 1.57 % to ~ 2.68 % First went up by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 5.92 % to ~ 6.78 % Jim went up by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 1.33 % to ~ 1.83 %
Classic went down by ~ 15.22 %, going from ~ 89.52 % to ~ 74.3 % Life went down by ~ 2.56 %, going from ~ 72.98 % to ~ 70.42 % Snute went down by ~ 2.48 %, going from ~ 23.94 % to ~ 21.46 % MMA went down by ~ 2.45 %, going from ~ 14.41 % to ~ 11.96 % soO went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 54.47 % to ~ 52.73 % herO went down by ~ 1.72 %, going from ~ 56.04 % to ~ 54.32 % Oz went down by ~ 1.44 %, going from ~ 1.57 % to ~ 0.13 % HerO went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 9.03 % to ~ 7.64 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 6.8 % to ~ 5.86 % Patience went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 6.09 % to ~ 5.21 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 12.87 % to ~ 12.22 % Solar went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 9.88 % to ~ 9.34 %
Also notice that we had some headband trades in GSL, with Effort taking the #2 headband from Classic, and then taking the #1 headband from sOs in the first ever #1 vs #2 match! Currently Effort holds the #1 headband, and sOs holds the #2 headband, hopefully we will see another #1 vs #2 match this year.
WCS EU S3 Premier - Golden is at ~ 3.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.85 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.4 %. ~ 42.15 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 1.47 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.61 % of the time Dayshi wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.54 %. ~ 42.39 % of the time Dayshi loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Nerchio is at ~ 0.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.77 % of the time Nerchio wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.32 %. ~ 46.23 % of the time Nerchio loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - KrasS is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.77 % of the time KrasS wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 69.23 % of the time KrasS loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.11 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.89 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 21.46 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.25 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 31.42 %. ~ 38.75 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 5.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.75 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.76 %. ~ 47.25 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.89 % of the time Miniraser wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 78.11 % of the time Miniraser loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - First is at ~ 6.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.07 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 11.19 %. ~ 40.93 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.41 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 11.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.22 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 21.09 %. ~ 48.78 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 2.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.27 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.47 %. ~ 51.73 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ShoWTimE is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.44 % of the time ShoWTimE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.54 %. ~ 58.56 % of the time ShoWTimE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - Welmu is at ~ 2.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.5 % of the time Welmu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.31 %. ~ 43.5 % of the time Welmu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 1.26 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.89 % of the time TLO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.33 %. ~ 47.11 % of the time TLO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.61 % of the time uThermal wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.13 %. ~ 49.39 % of the time uThermal loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.99 % of the time LiveZerg wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.1 %. ~ 60.01 % of the time LiveZerg loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - jjakji is at ~ 96.27 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.26 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.81 %. ~ 32.74 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 91.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 6.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.14 % of the time VortiX wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.75 %. ~ 36.86 % of the time VortiX loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Kas is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.35 % of the time Kas wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 63.65 % of the time Kas loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.26 % of the time Harstem wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.38 %. ~ 66.74 % of the time Harstem loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - Bunny is at ~ 13.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.1 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 18.28 %. ~ 26.9 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 68.09 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 31.91 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MorroW is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.65 % of the time MorroW wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 66.35 % of the time MorroW loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.15 % of the time ToD wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 74.85 % of the time ToD loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 10.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.44 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.4 %. ~ 33.56 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bly is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.76 % of the time Bly wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 54.24 % of the time Bly loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0.88 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.83 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.95 %. ~ 55.17 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.97 % of the time BlinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.13 %. ~ 57.03 % of the time BlinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - MC is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.25 % of the time MC wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 32.75 % of the time MC loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Happy is at ~ 0.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.9 % of the time Happy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.28 %. ~ 40.1 % of the time Happy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.61 % of the time Grubby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.2 %. ~ 63.39 % of the time Grubby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Serral is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.24 % of the time Serral wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 63.76 % of the time Serral loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier San has a ~ 9.94 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bunny has a ~ 9.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.77 % to ~ 99.99 % jjakji has a ~ 8.05 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.27 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 7.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 6.95 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.57 % to ~ 99.99 % MC has a ~ 6.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 5.82 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.46 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 5.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.78 % to ~ 97.6 % VortiX has a ~ 5.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.97 % to ~ 99.9 % Patience has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 92.72 % MMA has a ~ 3.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.96 % to ~ 100 % YoDa has a ~ 3.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.68 % to ~ 68.12 % Happy has a ~ 3.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.77 % to ~ 22.67 % Golden has a ~ 2.78 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.17 % to ~ 98.72 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 33.43 % Welmu has a ~ 1.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 99.86 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 1.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 10.78 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.93 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 71.82 % uThermal has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 4.95 % TLO has a ~ 1.05 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 99.56 % MaNa has a ~ 0.92 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 90.5 % Bly has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 3.68 % Harstem has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 15.84 % Kas has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 3.49 % BlinG has a ~ 0.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 7.68 % Serral has a ~ 0.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 3.44 % Grubby has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 15.47 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 9.69 % MorroW has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.87 % ToD has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 7.64 % Miniraser has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 2.16 %
WCS EU S3 Premier TLO would gain ~ 98.3 % if they win, with a ~ 1.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 99.56 % Welmu would gain ~ 97.35 % if they win, with a ~ 1.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 99.86 % Golden would gain ~ 95.54 % if they win, with a ~ 2.78 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.17 % to ~ 98.72 % VortiX would gain ~ 92.92 % if they win, with a ~ 5.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.97 % to ~ 99.9 % First would gain ~ 90.82 % if they win, with a ~ 5.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.78 % to ~ 97.6 % MaNa would gain ~ 89.63 % if they win, with a ~ 0.92 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 90.5 % ForGG would gain ~ 89.43 % if they win, with a ~ 6.95 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.57 % to ~ 99.99 % MMA would gain ~ 88.04 % if they win, with a ~ 3.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.96 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 87.51 % if they win, with a ~ 5.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 92.72 % Bunny would gain ~ 86.23 % if they win, with a ~ 9.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.77 % to ~ 99.99 % Snute would gain ~ 78.54 % if they win, with a ~ 5.82 % chance to win, going from ~ 21.46 % to ~ 100 % Dayshi would gain ~ 70.35 % if they win, with a ~ 1.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 71.82 % YoDa would gain ~ 65.44 % if they win, with a ~ 3.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.68 % to ~ 68.12 % Nerchio would gain ~ 32.72 % if they win, with a ~ 2.03 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 33.43 % Happy would gain ~ 21.9 % if they win, with a ~ 3.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.77 % to ~ 22.67 % Harstem would gain ~ 15.71 % if they win, with a ~ 0.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 15.84 % Grubby would gain ~ 15.39 % if they win, with a ~ 0.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 15.47 % ShoWTimE would gain ~ 10.56 % if they win, with a ~ 1.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 10.78 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 9.65 % if they win, with a ~ 0.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 9.69 % BlinG would gain ~ 7.62 % if they win, with a ~ 0.7 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 7.68 % ToD would gain ~ 7.62 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 7.64 % uThermal would gain ~ 4.89 % if they win, with a ~ 1.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 4.95 % jjakji would gain ~ 3.73 % if they win, with a ~ 8.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 96.27 % to ~ 100 % Bly would gain ~ 3.64 % if they win, with a ~ 0.83 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 3.68 % Kas would gain ~ 3.46 % if they win, with a ~ 0.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 3.49 % Serral would gain ~ 3.42 % if they win, with a ~ 0.66 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 3.44 % Miniraser would gain ~ 2.16 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 2.16 % MorroW would gain ~ 1.87 % if they win, with a ~ 0.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.87 % MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.62 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.94 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Nerchio has a ~ 2.03 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Golden has a ~ 2.78 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier KrasS has a ~ 0 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Dayshi has a ~ 1.93 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 6.73254
Group B Snute has a ~ 5.82 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier StarDust has a ~ 7.62 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Miniraser has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Patience has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 18.6908
Group C MMA has a ~ 3.91 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier First has a ~ 5.69 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier YoDa has a ~ 3.56 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier ShoWTimE has a ~ 1.99 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 15.1603
Group D LiveZerg has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier TLO has a ~ 1.05 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Welmu has a ~ 1.99 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier uThermal has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 4.69641
Group E jjakji has a ~ 8.05 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Kas has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier VortiX has a ~ 5.49 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Harstem has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 15.0329
Group F San has a ~ 9.94 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier MorroW has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier ToD has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Bunny has a ~ 9.12 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 19.6304
Group G ForGG has a ~ 6.95 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier MaNa has a ~ 0.92 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Bly has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier BlinG has a ~ 0.7 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 9.40661
Group H MC has a ~ 6.24 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Happy has a ~ 3.21 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Grubby has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Serral has a ~ 0.66 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 10.568
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores F > B > C > E
Group A Nerchio is at ~ 0.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Golden is at ~ 3.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 KrasS is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Dayshi is at ~ 1.47 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 5.35915
Group B Snute is at ~ 21.46 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Miniraser is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Patience is at ~ 5.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 126.68
Group C MMA is at ~ 11.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 First is at ~ 6.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 YoDa is at ~ 2.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ShoWTimE is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 21.6404
Group D LiveZerg is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TLO is at ~ 1.26 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Welmu is at ~ 2.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 uThermal is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 3.86621
Group E jjakji is at ~ 96.27 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Kas is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 VortiX is at ~ 6.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Harstem is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.394
Group F San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MorroW is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ToD is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bunny is at ~ 13.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 113.792
Group G ForGG is at ~ 10.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MaNa is at ~ 0.88 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bly is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 BlinG is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 11.5379
Group H MC is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Happy is at ~ 0.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Grubby is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Serral is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 100.867
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores B > F > E > H
Group A Nerchio's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Golden's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.12 % KrasS's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Dayshi's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.18 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.301627
Group B Snute's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.29 % StarDust's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Miniraser's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Patience's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.6 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.884693
Group C MMA's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.72 % First's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.36 % YoDa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.57 % ShoWTimE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.05 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 1.7
Group D LiveZerg's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % TLO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.2 % Welmu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.18 % uThermal's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.39356
Group E jjakji's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.46 % Kas's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % VortiX's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.04 % Harstem's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.464677
Group F San's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % MorroW's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % ToD's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Bunny's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 1.3 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.29217
Group G ForGG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.2 % MaNa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Bly's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % BlinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.187253
Group H MC's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Happy's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.08 % Grubby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Serral's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0652467
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores C > B > H > A
Group A When Nerchio wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.61 % When Nerchio loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.71 % When Golden wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.22 % When Golden loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 3.05 % When KrasS wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When KrasS loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Dayshi wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.07 % When Dayshi loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.45 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 9.10676
Group B When Snute wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.96 % When Snute loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 15.74 % When StarDust wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When StarDust loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Miniraser wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Miniraser loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Patience wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.55 % When Patience loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.08 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 35.3358
Group C When MMA wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.13 % When MMA loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.59 % When First wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.41 % When First loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.37 % When YoDa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.79 % When YoDa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.6 % When ShoWTimE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.32 % When ShoWTimE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.22 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 35.4283
Group D When LiveZerg wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When LiveZerg loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % When TLO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.07 % When TLO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.2 % When Welmu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.81 % When Welmu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.35 % When uThermal wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When uThermal loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 6.6645
Group E When jjakji wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.54 % When jjakji loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.22 % When Kas wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Kas loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When VortiX wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.77 % When VortiX loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.46 % When Harstem wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.25 % When Harstem loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.13 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 18.448
Group F When San wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When San loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When MorroW wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When MorroW loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When ToD wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When ToD loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % When Bunny wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.52 % When Bunny loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 12.27 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 16.8887
Group G When ForGG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.83 % When ForGG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.57 % When MaNa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.07 % When MaNa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.87 % When Bly wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.04 % When Bly loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When BlinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.07 % When BlinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 16.532
Group H When MC wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When MC loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Happy wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.51 % When Happy loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.76 % When Grubby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.13 % When Grubby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % When Serral wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.04 % When Serral loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 1.53186
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores C > B > E > F
Group A Nerchio has an overall Aligulac rating of 1728 Golden has an overall Aligulac rating of 1773 KrasS has an overall Aligulac rating of 1339 Dayshi has an overall Aligulac rating of 1713 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6553
Group B Snute has an overall Aligulac rating of 1956 StarDust has an overall Aligulac rating of 1940 Miniraser has an overall Aligulac rating of 1379 Patience has an overall Aligulac rating of 1878 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7153
Group C MMA has an overall Aligulac rating of 1876 First has an overall Aligulac rating of 1875 YoDa has an overall Aligulac rating of 1872 ShoWTimE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1718 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7341
Group D LiveZerg has an overall Aligulac rating of 1496 TLO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1610 Welmu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1659 uThermal has an overall Aligulac rating of 1644 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6409
Group E jjakji has an overall Aligulac rating of 2006 Kas has an overall Aligulac rating of 1594 VortiX has an overall Aligulac rating of 1914 Harstem has an overall Aligulac rating of 1567 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7081
Group F San has an overall Aligulac rating of 2032 MorroW has an overall Aligulac rating of 1469 ToD has an overall Aligulac rating of 1446 Bunny has an overall Aligulac rating of 2027 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6974
Group G ForGG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1962 MaNa has an overall Aligulac rating of 1551 Bly has an overall Aligulac rating of 1591 BlinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1514 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6618
Group H MC has an overall Aligulac rating of 1902 Happy has an overall Aligulac rating of 1781 Grubby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1490 Serral has an overall Aligulac rating of 1591 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6764
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores C > B > E > F
Group A has a 4th place Group B has a 1st place, and 4 2nd places Group C has three 1st places, and a 3rd place Group D has no top 4 placings Group E has three 3rd places, and a 4th place Group F has a 1st place, a 2nd place, and two 4th places Group G has no top 4 placings Group H has a 3rd place, and a 4th place
Group C is our Group of Death! Congrats to MMA, First, YoDa, and ShoWTimE! Group B wins the 2nd place Group of Death with Snute, StarDust, Miniraser, and Patience.
What do you think?
Poll: Hardest group?
Group A (Golden, Nerchio, Dayshi, KrasS) (7)
3%
Group B (StarDust, Snute, Patience, Miniraser) (46)
21%
Group C (First, YoDa, MMa, ShoWTimE) (126)
57%
Group D (Welmu, LiveZerg, TLO, uThermal) (3)
1%
Group E (VortiX, Harstem, jjakji, Kas) (17)
8%
Group F (San, ToD, Bunny, MorroW) (7)
3%
Group G (ForGG, MaNa, BlinG, Bly) (1)
0%
Group H (MC, Grubby, Happy, Serral) (13)
6%
220 total votes
Your vote: Hardest group?
(Vote): Group A (Golden, Nerchio, Dayshi, KrasS) (Vote): Group B (StarDust, Snute, Patience, Miniraser) (Vote): Group C (First, YoDa, MMa, ShoWTimE) (Vote): Group D (Welmu, LiveZerg, TLO, uThermal) (Vote): Group E (VortiX, Harstem, jjakji, Kas) (Vote): Group F (San, ToD, Bunny, MorroW) (Vote): Group G (ForGG, MaNa, BlinG, Bly) (Vote): Group H (MC, Grubby, Happy, Serral)
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jul 30 4:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Ro32 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.22 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 4.07 % of the time 2,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.27 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.34 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 66.85 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 82.09 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 93.17 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
GSL S3 Code S sOs has the #1 headband! Classic has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #1 headband! - sOs is at ~ 89.8 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.05 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 93.47 %. ~ 27.95 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 80.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 89.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.44 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 95.21 %. ~ 37.56 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 80.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.12 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.06 %. ~ 64.88 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.39 % of the time Shine wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 69.61 % of the time Shine loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 14.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.58 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 18.35 %. ~ 25.42 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 0.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.95 % of the time ParalyzE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.97 %. ~ 48.05 % of the time ParalyzE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.02 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.15 %. ~ 54.98 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.45 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 71.55 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Maru is at ~ 6.37 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.15 % of the time Maru wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.78 %. ~ 37.85 % of the time Maru loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 5.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.01 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.46 %. ~ 40.99 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.95 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.95 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.18 %. ~ 57.05 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hush is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.89 % of the time Hush wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 64.11 % of the time Hush loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Soulkey is at ~ 3.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.49 % of the time Soulkey wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.69 %. ~ 34.51 % of the time Soulkey loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 0.87 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.98 % of the time Bbyong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.44 %. ~ 40.02 % of the time Bbyong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.36 % of the time Stats wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.28 %. ~ 53.64 % of the time Stats loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Terminator is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.17 % of the time Terminator wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 71.83 % of the time Terminator loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Zest is at ~ 99.92 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.26 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 33.74 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.8 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rain is at ~ 10.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.56 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.08 %. ~ 38.44 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hurricane is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.8 % of the time Hurricane wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.27 %. ~ 60.2 % of the time Hurricane loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.38 % of the time Rogue wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.19 %. ~ 67.62 % of the time Rogue loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.37 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.19 %. ~ 43.63 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 54.9 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.34 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 67.37 %. ~ 46.66 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 40.65 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trust is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.83 % of the time Trust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.15 %. ~ 52.17 % of the time Trust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.45 % of the time Stork wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.52 %. ~ 57.55 % of the time Stork loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 12.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.74 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 19.6 %. ~ 38.26 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dear is at ~ 7.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.2 % of the time Dear wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.51 %. ~ 46.8 % of the time Dear loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TY is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.33 % of the time TY wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.3 %. ~ 56.67 % of the time TY loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 2.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.73 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.4 %. ~ 58.27 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.49 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Solar is at ~ 10.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.58 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.07 %. ~ 36.42 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Flash is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.38 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.48 %. ~ 51.62 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dark is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.41 % of the time Dark wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.32 %. ~ 54.59 % of the time Dark loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Avenge is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.63 % of the time Avenge wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.17 %. ~ 57.37 % of the time Avenge loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S INnoVation has a ~ 10.82 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.01 % to ~ 99.84 % sOs has a ~ 10.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.8 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 7.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.62 % to ~ 99.95 % PartinG has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.81 % to ~ 98.78 % Rain has a ~ 7.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.38 % to ~ 99.97 % Soulkey has a ~ 4.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.1 % to ~ 56.7 % Dear has a ~ 4.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.72 % to ~ 99.99 % Classic has a ~ 4.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.62 % to ~ 100 % Maru has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.37 % to ~ 99.98 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 3.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.25 % to ~ 36.37 % Trap has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 99.41 % soO has a ~ 2.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 54.9 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 2.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 9.25 % Bbyong has a ~ 2.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 34.15 % Hurricane has a ~ 1.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 5.94 % Avenge has a ~ 1.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 4.16 % Stats has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 7.67 % TRUE has a ~ 1.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 99.68 % TY has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 8.25 % Trust has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 4.94 % Reality has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 5.87 % Cure has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 5.69 % ParalyzE has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 41.84 % Dark has a ~ 1.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 13.38 % Stork has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 21.28 % EffOrt has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 3.45 % Rogue has a ~ 0.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 13.97 % Shine has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 6.45 % Hush has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.6 % MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 3.48 % Terminator has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.17 %
GSL S3 Code S TRUE would gain ~ 96.72 % if they win, with a ~ 1.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 99.68 % Maru would gain ~ 93.61 % if they win, with a ~ 4.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.37 % to ~ 99.98 % Trap would gain ~ 93.44 % if they win, with a ~ 2.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 99.41 % Dear would gain ~ 92.27 % if they win, with a ~ 4.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.72 % to ~ 99.99 % Rain would gain ~ 89.6 % if they win, with a ~ 7.03 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.38 % to ~ 99.97 % Solar would gain ~ 89.33 % if they win, with a ~ 7.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.62 % to ~ 99.95 % PartinG would gain ~ 85.97 % if they win, with a ~ 7.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.81 % to ~ 98.78 % INnoVation would gain ~ 85.83 % if they win, with a ~ 10.82 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.01 % to ~ 99.84 % Soulkey would gain ~ 53.6 % if they win, with a ~ 4.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.1 % to ~ 56.7 % soO would gain ~ 45.1 % if they win, with a ~ 2.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 54.9 % to ~ 100 % ParalyzE would gain ~ 41.33 % if they win, with a ~ 1.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 41.84 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 35.13 % if they win, with a ~ 3.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.25 % to ~ 36.37 % Bbyong would gain ~ 33.28 % if they win, with a ~ 2.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 34.15 % Stork would gain ~ 21.06 % if they win, with a ~ 0.98 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 21.28 % Rogue would gain ~ 13.91 % if they win, with a ~ 0.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 13.97 % Dark would gain ~ 13.23 % if they win, with a ~ 1.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 13.38 % Classic would gain ~ 10.38 % if they win, with a ~ 4.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 89.62 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 10.2 % if they win, with a ~ 10.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 89.8 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 9.02 % if they win, with a ~ 2.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 9.25 % TY would gain ~ 8.12 % if they win, with a ~ 1.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 8.25 % Stats would gain ~ 7.53 % if they win, with a ~ 1.62 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 7.67 % Shine would gain ~ 6.43 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 6.45 % Hurricane would gain ~ 5.83 % if they win, with a ~ 1.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 5.94 % Reality would gain ~ 5.79 % if they win, with a ~ 1.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 5.87 % Cure would gain ~ 5.63 % if they win, with a ~ 1.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 5.69 % Trust would gain ~ 4.87 % if they win, with a ~ 1.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 4.94 % Avenge would gain ~ 4.09 % if they win, with a ~ 1.66 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 4.16 % MyuNgSiK would gain ~ 3.47 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 3.48 % EffOrt would gain ~ 3.43 % if they win, with a ~ 0.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 3.45 % Hush would gain ~ 1.59 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.6 % Terminator would gain ~ 1.17 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.17 % Zest would gain ~ 0.08 % if they win, with a ~ 7.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A sOs has a ~ 10.33 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S EffOrt has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Classic has a ~ 4.45 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Shine has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 15.7284
Group B INnoVation has a ~ 10.84 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S ParalyzE has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Cure has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 13.2346
Group C Maru has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Trap has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Reality has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Hush has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 8.48762
Group D Soulkey has a ~ 4.99 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Bbyong has a ~ 2.32 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Terminator has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Stats has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 9.04097
Group E Rain has a ~ 7.04 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Hurricane has a ~ 1.74 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Zest has a ~ 7.97 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Rogue has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 17.1567
Group F DongRaeGu has a ~ 3.15 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S soO has a ~ 2.56 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Stork has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Trust has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 8.04137
Group G PartinG has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S TY has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S TRUE has a ~ 1.58 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Dear has a ~ 4.73 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 15.5115
Group H Flash has a ~ 2.36 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Dark has a ~ 1.04 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Avenge has a ~ 1.66 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Solar has a ~ 7.75 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 12.7989
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores E > A > G > B
Group A sOs is at ~ 89.79 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 EffOrt is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Classic is at ~ 89.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Shine is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 179.466
Group B INnoVation is at ~ 14.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ParalyzE is at ~ 0.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Cure is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 14.6106
Group C Maru is at ~ 6.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Trap is at ~ 5.98 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Reality is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hush is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 12.4336
Group D Soulkey is at ~ 3.09 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bbyong is at ~ 0.87 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Terminator is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stats is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 4.08969
Group E Rain is at ~ 10.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hurricane is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Zest is at ~ 99.92 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Rogue is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 110.467
Group F DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 soO is at ~ 54.89 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stork is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Trust is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 56.4315
Group G PartinG is at ~ 12.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TY is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TRUE is at ~ 2.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Dear is at ~ 7.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 23.6284
Group H Flash is at ~ 0.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Dark is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Avenge is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Solar is at ~ 10.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 11.0828
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores A > E > F > G
Group A sOs's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.82 % EffOrt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Classic's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.45 % Shine's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.26601
Group B INnoVation's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 1.57 % ParalyzE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.03 % Cure's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % MyuNgSiK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.59313
Group C Maru's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.44 % Trap's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.35 % Reality's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Hush's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.779078
Group D Soulkey's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.26 % Bbyong's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.12 % Terminator's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Stats's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.36173
Group E Rain's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.28 % Hurricane's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Zest's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Rogue's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.316672
Group F DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.06 % soO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.09 % Stork's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Trust's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.0582876
Group G PartinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.54 % TY's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % TRUE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.48 % Dear's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.89 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 1.91867
Group H Flash's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Dark's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Avenge's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Solar's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.22 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.251547
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores G > E > H > F
Group A When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.68 % When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.48 % When EffOrt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.04 % When EffOrt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % When Classic wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.59 % When Classic loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.29 % When Shine wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When Shine loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 28.1888
Group B When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.35 % When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 12.75 % When ParalyzE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.46 % When ParalyzE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.5 % When Cure wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.08 % When Cure loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % When MyuNgSiK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When MyuNgSiK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 18.2219
Group C When Maru wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.42 % When Maru loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.62 % When Trap wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.49 % When Trap loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.02 % When Reality wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.1 % When Reality loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.08 % When Hush wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Hush loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 17.7308
Group D When Soulkey wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.59 % When Soulkey loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 3.02 % When Bbyong wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.57 % When Bbyong loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.85 % When Terminator wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Terminator loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Stats wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.15 % When Stats loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.13 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 6.3069
Group E When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.7 % When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.13 % When Hurricane wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.16 % When Hurricane loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.11 % When Zest wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When Zest loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.12 % When Rogue wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.12 % When Rogue loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 15.4746
Group F When DongRaeGu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.94 % When DongRaeGu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.22 % When soO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 12.48 % When soO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 14.25 % When Stork wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.3 % When Stork loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.22 % When Trust wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.08 % When Trust loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 29.5619
Group G When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.79 % When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 10.96 % When TY wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.17 % When TY loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.13 % When TRUE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.45 % When TRUE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.47 % When Dear wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.8 % When Dear loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.6 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 36.3615
Group H When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.25 % When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.23 % When Dark wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.17 % When Dark loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.14 % When Avenge wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.1 % When Avenge loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % When Solar wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.46 % When Solar loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.53 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 15.961
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores G > F > A > B
Group A sOs has an overall Aligulac rating of 2067 EffOrt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1652 Classic has an overall Aligulac rating of 1895 Shine has an overall Aligulac rating of 1585 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7199
Group B INnoVation has an overall Aligulac rating of 2105 ParalyzE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1657 Cure has an overall Aligulac rating of 1762 MyuNgSiK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1432 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6956
Group C Maru has an overall Aligulac rating of 1930 Trap has an overall Aligulac rating of 1828 Reality has an overall Aligulac rating of 1748 Hush has an overall Aligulac rating of 1484 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6990
Group D Soulkey has an overall Aligulac rating of 1931 Bbyong has an overall Aligulac rating of 1787 Terminator has an overall Aligulac rating of 1445 Stats has an overall Aligulac rating of 1684 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6847
Group E Rain has an overall Aligulac rating of 2022 Hurricane has an overall Aligulac rating of 1787 Zest has an overall Aligulac rating of 1986 Rogue has an overall Aligulac rating of 1587 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7382
Group F DongRaeGu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1865 soO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1842 Stork has an overall Aligulac rating of 1657 Trust has an overall Aligulac rating of 1713 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7077
Group G PartinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 2019 TY has an overall Aligulac rating of 1786 TRUE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1788 Dear has an overall Aligulac rating of 1956 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7549
Group H Flash has an overall Aligulac rating of 1843 Dark has an overall Aligulac rating of 1729 Avenge has an overall Aligulac rating of 1750 Solar has an overall Aligulac rating of 2030 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7352
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores G > E > H > A
Group A has one 1st place, one 2nd place, one 3rd place, and one 4th place Group B has two 4th places Group C has no top 4 placings Group D has no top 4 placings Group E has one 1st place, and three 2nd places Group F has one 2nd place, one 3rd place, and one 4th place Group G has three 1st places, one 3rd place, and one 4th place Group H has two 3rd places
Group G is our Group of Death! Congrats to Parting, TY, TRUE, and Dear! Group E wins the 2nd place Group of Death with Rain, Hurricane, Zest, and Rogue.
What do you think?
Poll: Hardest group?
Group A (Classic, EffOrt, Shine, sOs) (29)
7%
Group B (Paralyze, Cure, MyuNgSiK, INnoVation) (3)
1%
Group C (Maru, Hush, Reality, Trap) (4)
1%
Group D (Soulkey, Terminator, Stats, Bbyong) (22)
6%
Group E (Zest, Hurricane, Rogue, Rain) (49)
12%
Group F (soO, Trust, DongRaeGu, Stork) (23)
6%
Group G (TRUE, TY, Dear, PartinG) (254)
64%
Group H (Solar, Avenge, Flash, Dark) (11)
3%
395 total votes
Your vote: Hardest group?
(Vote): Group A (Classic, EffOrt, Shine, sOs) (Vote): Group B (Paralyze, Cure, MyuNgSiK, INnoVation) (Vote): Group C (Maru, Hush, Reality, Trap) (Vote): Group D (Soulkey, Terminator, Stats, Bbyong) (Vote): Group E (Zest, Hurricane, Rogue, Rain) (Vote): Group F (soO, Trust, DongRaeGu, Stork) (Vote): Group G (TRUE, TY, Dear, PartinG) (Vote): Group H (Solar, Avenge, Flash, Dark)
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jul 25 8:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Ro32 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.23 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 3.52 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 49.4 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 69.57 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 84.49 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 95.57 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
WCS AM S3 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 78.97 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 21.03 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 0.43 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.59 % of the time Arthur wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.82 %. ~ 48.41 % of the time Arthur loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.39 % of the time neeb wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 58.61 % of the time neeb loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Guitarcheese is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.04 % of the time Guitarcheese wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 71.96 % of the time Guitarcheese loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Alicia is at ~ 5.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.02 % of the time Alicia wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.06 %. ~ 38.98 % of the time Alicia loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.47 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 0.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.11 % of the time Jim wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.23 %. ~ 41.89 % of the time Jim loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iaguz is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.04 % of the time iaguz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 53.96 % of the time iaguz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.83 % of the time NesTea wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 65.17 % of the time NesTea loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.8 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 29.2 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 89.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.85 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 95.61 %. ~ 40.15 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 79.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 1.79 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.96 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.25 %. ~ 60.04 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 29.38 % of the time MacSed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 70.62 % of the time MacSed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Pigbaby is at ~ 45.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.02 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 54.01 %. ~ 29.98 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 25.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 0.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.82 % of the time Check wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.66 %. ~ 38.18 % of the time Check loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.59 % of the time Illusion wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.06 %. ~ 53.41 % of the time Illusion loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shana is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.57 % of the time Shana wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 78.43 % of the time Shana loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 6.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.1 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.28 %. ~ 29.9 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.6 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 1.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.36 % of the time Revival wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.96 %. ~ 45.64 % of the time Revival loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 1.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.93 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.65 %. ~ 48.07 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arium is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 23.61 % of the time Arium wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 76.39 % of the time Arium loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Scarlett is at ~ 16.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 69.74 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.37 %. ~ 30.26 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 2.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.08 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.27 %. ~ 50.92 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Seed is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.64 % of the time Seed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.33 %. ~ 55.36 % of the time Seed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.54 % of the time TooDming wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.97 %. ~ 63.46 % of the time TooDming loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 77.38 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 22.62 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HerO is at ~ 9.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.3 % of the time HerO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.96 %. ~ 46.7 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.25 % of the time XiGua wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.26 %. ~ 63.75 % of the time XiGua loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.08 % of the time hendralisk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 66.92 % of the time hendralisk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.3 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 26.7 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 2.6 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.52 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.2 %. ~ 38.48 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 0.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.96 % of the time puCK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.35 %. ~ 63.04 % of the time puCK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Slam is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.23 % of the time Slam wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.29 %. ~ 71.77 % of the time Slam loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier TaeJa has a ~ 15.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 14.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 10.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 9.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 16.21 % to ~ 99.39 % Bomber has a ~ 7.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 6.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.23 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 3.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 99.99 % Alicia has a ~ 3.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.71 % to ~ 99.99 % Pigbaby has a ~ 3.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 45.54 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 3.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.6 % to ~ 78.69 % HerO has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.4 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 2.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 97.11 % Jim has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.72 % to ~ 29.74 % Check has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.41 % to ~ 20.62 % Revival has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.63 % to ~ 96.97 % HuK has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 91.44 % Seed has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 10.17 % Oz has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.79 % to ~ 99.96 % iaguz has a ~ 1.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 3.14 % Arthur has a ~ 0.93 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.43 % to ~ 43.88 % TooDming has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 80.34 % hendralisk has a ~ 0.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 4.83 % puCK has a ~ 0.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 87.62 % XiGua has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 18.19 % NesTea has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 8.34 % MacSed has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 6.4 % Illusion has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 9.84 % neeb has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 10.95 % Slam has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 31.16 % Guitarcheese has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.32 %
WCS AM S3 Premier Oz would gain ~ 98.16 % if they win, with a ~ 1.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.79 % to ~ 99.96 % Revival would gain ~ 95.33 % if they win, with a ~ 1.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.63 % to ~ 96.97 % Heart would gain ~ 94.48 % if they win, with a ~ 2.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 97.11 % Alicia would gain ~ 94.28 % if they win, with a ~ 3.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.71 % to ~ 99.99 % viOLet would gain ~ 93.31 % if they win, with a ~ 3.98 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 99.99 % HerO would gain ~ 90.6 % if they win, with a ~ 2.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.4 % to ~ 100 % HuK would gain ~ 90.05 % if they win, with a ~ 1.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 91.44 % puCK would gain ~ 87.12 % if they win, with a ~ 0.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 87.62 % Scarlett would gain ~ 83.18 % if they win, with a ~ 9.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 16.21 % to ~ 99.39 % TooDming would gain ~ 79.61 % if they win, with a ~ 0.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 80.34 % MajOr would gain ~ 76.09 % if they win, with a ~ 3.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.6 % to ~ 78.69 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 54.46 % if they win, with a ~ 3.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 45.54 % to ~ 100 % Arthur would gain ~ 43.46 % if they win, with a ~ 0.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.43 % to ~ 43.88 % Slam would gain ~ 31.08 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 31.16 % Jim would gain ~ 29.02 % if they win, with a ~ 2.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.72 % to ~ 29.74 % Check would gain ~ 20.21 % if they win, with a ~ 1.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.41 % to ~ 20.62 % XiGua would gain ~ 18.1 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 18.19 % neeb would gain ~ 10.92 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 10.95 % Jaedong would gain ~ 10.77 % if they win, with a ~ 6.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 89.23 % to ~ 100 % Seed would gain ~ 10.02 % if they win, with a ~ 1.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 10.17 % Illusion would gain ~ 9.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 9.84 % NesTea would gain ~ 8.3 % if they win, with a ~ 0.44 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 8.34 % MacSed would gain ~ 6.38 % if they win, with a ~ 0.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 6.4 % hendralisk would gain ~ 4.8 % if they win, with a ~ 0.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 4.83 % iaguz would gain ~ 3.1 % if they win, with a ~ 1.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 3.14 % Guitarcheese would gain ~ 1.32 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.32 % Bomber would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 7.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 14.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A HyuN has a ~ 14.77 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Arthur has a ~ 0.93 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Guitarcheese has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier neeb has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 16.1452
Group B NesTea has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Alicia has a ~ 3.87 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Jim has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier iaguz has a ~ 1.2 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 7.76324
Group C Polt has a ~ 10.17 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Jaedong has a ~ 6.2 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Oz has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier MacSed has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 17.9905
Group D Illusion has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Check has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Pigbaby has a ~ 3.45 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Shana has a ~ 0 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 5.58316
Group E viOLet has a ~ 3.98 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Revival has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HuK has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Arium has a ~ 0 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 6.85745
Group F Seed has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Scarlett has a ~ 9.86 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Heart has a ~ 2.38 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier TooDming has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 14.4796
Group G TaeJa has a ~ 15.87 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HerO has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier XiGua has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier hendralisk has a ~ 0.6 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 19.8413
Group H Bomber has a ~ 7.39 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier MajOr has a ~ 3.09 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier puCK has a ~ 0.55 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Slam has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 11.284
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores G > C > A > F
Group A HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Arthur is at ~ 0.43 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Guitarcheese is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 neeb is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 100.457
Group B NesTea is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Alicia is at ~ 5.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Jim is at ~ 0.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 iaguz is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 6.5072
Group C Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Jaedong is at ~ 89.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Oz is at ~ 1.79 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MacSed is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 191.05
Group D Illusion is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Check is at ~ 0.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Pigbaby is at ~ 45.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Shana is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 45.9772
Group E viOLet is at ~ 6.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Revival is at ~ 1.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HuK is at ~ 1.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Arium is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 9.70695
Group F Seed is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Scarlett is at ~ 16.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Heart is at ~ 2.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TooDming is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 19.7139
Group G TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HerO is at ~ 9.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 XiGua is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 hendralisk is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 109.521
Group H Bomber is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MajOr is at ~ 2.6 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 puCK is at ~ 0.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Slam is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.187
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores C > G > H > A
Group A HyuN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Arthur's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Guitarcheese's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % neeb's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0135645
Group B NesTea's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Alicia's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Jim's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.05 % iaguz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.05522
Group C Polt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Jaedong's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.48 % Oz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.47 % MacSed's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.952842
Group D Illusion's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Check's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.04 % Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 3.25 % Shana's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -3.29698
Group E viOLet's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.77 % Revival's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.04 % HuK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.1 % Arium's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.911692
Group F Seed's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Scarlett's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.54 % Heart's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.59 % TooDming's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.24 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.295862
Group G TaeJa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % HerO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.17 % XiGua's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % hendralisk's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.199336
Group H Bomber's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % MajOr's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.07 % puCK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.06 % Slam's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.150787
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores C > F > G > H
Group A When HyuN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When HyuN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Arthur wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.4 % When Arthur loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.42 % When Guitarcheese wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Guitarcheese loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When neeb wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.04 % When neeb loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.897795
Group B When NesTea wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.07 % When NesTea loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % When Alicia wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.35 % When Alicia loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.24 % When Jim wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.51 % When Jim loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.71 % When iaguz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When iaguz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 10.0006
Group C When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Jaedong wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.38 % When Jaedong loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.51 % When Oz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.46 % When Oz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.63 % When MacSed wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When MacSed loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 20.0758
Group D When Illusion wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.03 % When Illusion loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When Check wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.25 % When Check loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.4 % When Pigbaby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.46 % When Pigbaby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 19.77 % When Shana wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Shana loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 28.9445
Group E When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.6 % When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.08 % When Revival wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.33 % When Revival loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.58 % When HuK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.26 % When HuK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.36 % When Arium wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Arium loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 14.2191
Group F When Seed wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.18 % When Seed loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.15 % When Scarlett wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.16 % When Scarlett loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 14.2 % When Heart wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.65 % When Heart loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.55 % When TooDming wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.24 % When TooDming loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.71 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 27.8425
Group G When TaeJa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When TaeJa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When HerO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.57 % When HerO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.5 % When XiGua wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.17 % When XiGua loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.09 % When hendralisk wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When hendralisk loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 14.4165
Group H When Bomber wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Bomber loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When MajOr wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.6 % When MajOr loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.56 % When puCK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.85 % When puCK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.5 % When Slam wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.21 % When Slam loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.08 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 5.80037
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores D > F > C > G
Group A HyuN has an overall Aligulac rating of 2102 Arthur has an overall Aligulac rating of 1517 Guitarcheese has an overall Aligulac rating of 1399 neeb has an overall Aligulac rating of 1372 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6390
Group B NesTea has an overall Aligulac rating of 1486 Alicia has an overall Aligulac rating of 1767 Jim has an overall Aligulac rating of 1669 iaguz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1594 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6516
Group C Polt has an overall Aligulac rating of 2016 Jaedong has an overall Aligulac rating of 1914 Oz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1609 MacSed has an overall Aligulac rating of 1471 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7010
Group D Illusion has an overall Aligulac rating of 1372 Check has an overall Aligulac rating of 1644 Pigbaby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1716 Shana has an overall Aligulac rating of 1151 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 5883
Group E viOLet has an overall Aligulac rating of 1775 Revival has an overall Aligulac rating of 1625 HuK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1591 Arium has an overall Aligulac rating of 1210 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6201
Group F Seed has an overall Aligulac rating of 1622 Scarlett has an overall Aligulac rating of 2020 Heart has an overall Aligulac rating of 1711 TooDming has an overall Aligulac rating of 1592 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6945
Group G TaeJa has an overall Aligulac rating of 2132 HerO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1730 XiGua has an overall Aligulac rating of 1508 hendralisk has an overall Aligulac rating of 1534 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6904
Group H Bomber has an overall Aligulac rating of 1910 MajOr has an overall Aligulac rating of 1732 puCK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1482 Slam has an overall Aligulac rating of 1434 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6558
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores C > F > G > H
Group A has a 3rd and a 4th place Group B has no top 4 places Group C has three 1sts, one 2nd, and one 3rd place Group D has a 1st place Group E has no top 4 places Group F has three 2nds, and a 4th place Group G has a 1st, a 2nd, two 3rds, and a 4th place Group H has a 3rd and two 4th places
Group C is our Group of Death! Congrats to Polt, Jaedong, Oz, and MacSed! Group G wins the 2nd place Group of Death with TaeJa, HerO, XiGua, and hendralisk.
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.21 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 3.5 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 40.71 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 53.27 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.97 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 82.54 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 93.55 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
WCS AM S3 Challenger - HuK is at ~ 0.89 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.94 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.25 %. ~ 29.06 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - phog is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 29.06 % of the time phog wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 70.94 % of the time phog loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - CranK is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.62 % of the time CranK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.16 %. ~ 24.38 % of the time CranK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shana is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 24.38 % of the time Shana wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 75.62 % of the time Shana loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - hendralisk is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.89 % of the time hendralisk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 28.11 % of the time hendralisk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ViBE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.11 % of the time ViBE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 71.89 % of the time ViBE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Suppy is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.48 % of the time Suppy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 44.52 % of the time Suppy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Guitarcheese is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.52 % of the time Guitarcheese wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 55.48 % of the time Guitarcheese loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Bails is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.71 % of the time Bails wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 47.29 % of the time Bails loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.29 % of the time neeb wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 52.71 % of the time neeb loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Ryung is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.59 % of the time Ryung wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 45.41 % of the time Ryung loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.41 % of the time MacSed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 54.59 % of the time MacSed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Arium is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.26 % of the time Arium wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 42.74 % of the time Arium loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Courage is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.74 % of the time Courage wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.26 % of the time Courage loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - MaSa is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.6 % of the time MaSa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.19 %. ~ 24.4 % of the time MaSa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Slam is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 24.4 % of the time Slam wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 75.6 % of the time Slam loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - KingKong is at ~ 0.47 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.13 % of the time KingKong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.88 %. ~ 46.87 % of the time KingKong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 80.56 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.87 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 89.27 %. ~ 53.13 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 72.87 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Seed is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.26 % of the time Seed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.14 %. ~ 39.74 % of the time Seed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Top is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.74 % of the time Top wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 60.26 % of the time Top loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - qxc is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.17 % of the time qxc wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 49.83 % of the time qxc loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iaguz is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.83 % of the time iaguz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 50.17 % of the time iaguz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Illusion is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.91 % of the time Illusion wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 25.09 % of the time Illusion loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Gemini is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.09 % of the time Gemini wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 74.91 % of the time Gemini loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - HerO is at ~ 6.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.81 % of the time HerO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.96 %. ~ 33.19 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ian is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.19 % of the time Ian wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 66.81 % of the time Ian loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Jim is at ~ 0.61 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.72 % of the time Jim wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.76 %. ~ 19.28 % of the time Jim loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Believe is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.28 % of the time Believe wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 80.72 % of the time Believe loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - puCK is at ~ 0.29 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.86 % of the time puCK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.56 %. ~ 48.14 % of the time puCK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.14 % of the time Balloon wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 51.86 % of the time Balloon loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Scarlett is at ~ 12.19 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.14 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.45 %. ~ 28.86 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.71 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sen is at ~ 0.31 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.86 % of the time Sen wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.02 %. ~ 71.14 % of the time Sen loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
WCS EU S3 Challenger starts in I'll post the previews for EU Challenger when we get closer to it, but you can see them now on the website.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Saturday, Jul 19 1:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM and Dreamhack Checkup! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.15 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 3.23 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 36.65 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.95 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 64.61 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 78.36 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.48 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Here are the biggest winners and losers over the past 4 days. Keep in mind this also includes WCS AM and EU qualifiers, the addition of Red Bull Washington with its seeds, and Code A matches. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
sOs went up by ~ 13.95 %, going from ~ 69.4 % to ~ 83.35 % Scarlett went up by ~ 10.97 %, going from ~ 0.91 % to ~ 11.88 % PartinG went up by ~ 7.34 %, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 13.31 % Jaedong went up by ~ 5.73 %, going from ~ 77.29 % to ~ 83.02 % Snute went up by ~ 4.68 %, going from ~ 24.02 % to ~ 28.7 % Dear went up by ~ 3.22 %, going from ~ 5.27 % to ~ 8.49 % Rain went up by ~ 3.13 %, going from ~ 6.51 % to ~ 9.64 % TRUE went up by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 3.41 % Trap went up by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 2.91 % to ~ 3.98 % First went up by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 5.4 % to ~ 6.08 %
MMA went down by ~ 13.41 %, going from ~ 24.86 % to ~ 11.45 % ForGG went down by ~ 6.41 %, going from ~ 19.89 % to ~ 13.47 % soO went down by ~ 5.14 %, going from ~ 60.2 % to ~ 55.07 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 4.57 %, going from ~ 46.73 % to ~ 42.16 % herO went down by ~ 3.48 %, going from ~ 73.43 % to ~ 69.95 % Classic went down by ~ 2.68 %, going from ~ 91.57 % to ~ 88.89 % HerO went down by ~ 2.66 %, going from ~ 8.97 % to ~ 6.31 % Life went down by ~ 2.1 %, going from ~ 86.58 % to ~ 84.48 % jjakji went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 92.33 % to ~ 90.71 % Patience went down by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 6.09 % to ~ 4.6 % Soulkey went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 4.13 % to ~ 3.05 % Maru went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 6.61 % to ~ 5.68 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 3.24 % to ~ 2.32 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 6.7 % to ~ 5.92 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 6.34 % to ~ 5.64 % Revival went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 1.45 %
IEM Shenzhen - TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.6 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 45.4 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.93 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.4 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 54.6 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.88 %.
IEM Shenzhen - Jaedong is at ~ 83.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.75 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 89.25 %. ~ 48.25 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 76.34 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 28.7 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.25 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 35.43 %. ~ 51.75 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 22.42 %.
IEM Shenzhen - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.97 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.03 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 0.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.03 % of the time Jim wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.78 %. ~ 55.97 % of the time Jim loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.36 %.
IEM Shenzhen - INnoVation is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.28 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 14.18 %. ~ 40.72 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 5.74 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.72 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.61 %. ~ 59.28 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.14 %.
IEM Shenzhen INnoVation has a ~ 21.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.57 % to ~ 17.94 % TaeJa has a ~ 18.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 14.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 12.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.93 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 9.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 28.7 % to ~ 53.81 % Jaedong has a ~ 9.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 83.02 % to ~ 98.76 % Solar has a ~ 8.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.74 % to ~ 8.8 % Jim has a ~ 5.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 1.79 %
DreamHack Valencia - First is at ~ 6.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.59 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.79 %. ~ 44.41 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.18 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Starbuck is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.41 % of the time Starbuck wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 55.59 % of the time Starbuck loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Valencia - Stephano is at ~ 0.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.04 % of the time Stephano wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.31 %. ~ 47.96 % of the time Stephano loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.11 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sacsri is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.96 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.16 %. ~ 52.04 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.05 %.
DreamHack Valencia - StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.01 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 39.99 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 0.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.99 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.45 %. ~ 60.01 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.65 %.
DreamHack Valencia - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 84.09 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 15.91 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revolver is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 15.91 % of the time Revolver wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 84.09 % of the time Revolver loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Valencia - Golden is at ~ 3.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.92 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.58 %. ~ 48.08 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Nerchio is at ~ 1.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.08 % of the time Nerchio wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.54 %. ~ 51.92 % of the time Nerchio loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.74 %.
DreamHack Valencia - Leenock is at ~ 1.8 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.99 % of the time Leenock wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.08 %. ~ 32.01 % of the time Leenock loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Majestic is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.01 % of the time Majestic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 67.99 % of the time Majestic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Valencia - VortiX is at ~ 7.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.79 % of the time VortiX wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.31 %. ~ 38.21 % of the time VortiX loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 6.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 1.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.21 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.77 %. ~ 61.79 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.37 %.
DreamHack Valencia - MC is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.24 % of the time MC wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 48.76 % of the time MC loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.76 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 51.24 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %.
DreamHack Valencia HyuN has a ~ 18.9 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 10.89 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MC has a ~ 9.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 8.96 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.8 % to ~ 3.54 % VortiX has a ~ 8.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.52 % to ~ 14.17 % First has a ~ 7.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.08 % to ~ 9.45 % Bomber has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Golden has a ~ 5.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.15 % to ~ 6.02 % Starbuck has a ~ 4.63 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Nerchio has a ~ 4.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 2.56 % Stephano has a ~ 3.96 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.22 % to ~ 0.87 % Sacsri has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 0.64 % YoDa has a ~ 3.48 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.74 % MaNa has a ~ 2.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.53 % to ~ 3.07 % Majestic has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 14 9:55pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Shenzhen Open Bracket, TWOP, and WCS Qualifiers Updated! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600 #6 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #7Bomber is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3125 #8 KT Zest is at ~ 99.84 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 92.34 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #10 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 91.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 86.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #12 EG Jaedong is at ~ 77.3 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #13 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 73.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #14 Jinair sOs is at ~ 69.47 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 60.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #16 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 46.67 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #17 Acer MMA is at ~ 24.83 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #18 Liquid Snute is at ~ 24.01 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 19.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #20 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 12.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #21 Liquid HerO is at ~ 8.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #22 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 7.14 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #23viOLet is at ~ 6.67 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #24 Jinair Maru is at ~ 6.6 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #25 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 6.51 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
Jaedong went up by ~ 22.3 %, going from ~ 54.99 % to ~ 77.3 % Life went up by ~ 5.63 %, going from ~ 80.96 % to ~ 86.59 % HerO went up by ~ 2.05 %, going from ~ 6.95 % to ~ 8.99 % Snute went up by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 22.53 % to ~ 24.01 % jjakji went up by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 91.01 % to ~ 92.34 % TRUE went up by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 2.31 % Leenock went up by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 1.6 %
soO went down by ~ 4.26 %, going from ~ 64.45 % to ~ 60.19 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 4.17 %, going from ~ 50.84 % to ~ 46.67 % herO went down by ~ 3.38 %, going from ~ 76.74 % to ~ 73.36 % sOs went down by ~ 3.34 %, going from ~ 72.81 % to ~ 69.47 % ForGG went down by ~ 2.59 %, going from ~ 22.48 % to ~ 19.89 % Classic went down by ~ 2.2 %, going from ~ 93.79 % to ~ 91.59 % Patience went down by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 7.42 % to ~ 6.08 % Check went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 0.54 % MMA went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 26.03 % to ~ 24.83 % First went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 6.57 % to ~ 5.39 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.86 %, going from ~ 4.09 % to ~ 3.24 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 7.41 % to ~ 6.67 % Maru went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 7.28 % to ~ 6.6 % Rain went down by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 7.11 % to ~ 6.51 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 4.71 % to ~ 4.13 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.57 %, going from ~ 7.71 % to ~ 7.14 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.53 %, going from ~ 6.88 % to ~ 6.35 % Dear went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 5.8 % to ~ 5.27 %
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.08 % of the time 2,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.18 % of the time 2,375 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 23.14 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.7 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.32 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 80.81 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.8 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
IEM Shenzhen Open Bracket jjakji has a ~ 62.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.34 % to ~ 95.85 % Life has a ~ 58.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 86.59 % to ~ 93.68 % HerO has a ~ 47.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.99 % to ~ 12.13 % Revival has a ~ 40.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.02 % to ~ 2.34 % Sen has a ~ 33.63 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.06 % to ~ 1.32 % Daisy has a ~ 33.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % TRUE has a ~ 29.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 3.21 % Seed has a ~ 27.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Check has a ~ 25.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 0.92 % NesTea has a ~ 16.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.11 % Has has a ~ 13.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Neige has a ~ 4.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bistork has a ~ 3.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % :: Phoenix has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Vaisravana has a ~ 0.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
IEM Shenzhen INnoVation has a ~ 15.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.38 % to ~ 19.87 % TaeJa has a ~ 13.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 11.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 10.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.84 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 7.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.83 % to ~ 57.48 % Jaedong has a ~ 6.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.3 % to ~ 99.25 % Snute has a ~ 6.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.01 % to ~ 53.93 % Solar has a ~ 6.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.71 % to ~ 9.91 % jjakji has a ~ 6.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.34 % to ~ 99.99 % Life has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 86.59 % to ~ 99.99 % Jim has a ~ 2.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.4 % to ~ 1.83 % Stork has a ~ 2.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.11 % HerO has a ~ 1.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.99 % to ~ 41.9 % puCK has a ~ 1.18 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.52 % to ~ 1.34 % TRUE has a ~ 0.71 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 13.22 % Revival has a ~ 0.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.02 % to ~ 8.89 % Seed has a ~ 0.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.1 % Daisy has a ~ 0.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.09 % Sen has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.06 % to ~ 4.75 % Illusion has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.25 % Check has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 2.4 % NesTea has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.35 %
2014 TWOP HyuN has a ~ 24.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 15.92 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.29 % to ~ 99.11 % TaeJa has a ~ 13.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 11.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 7.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.6 % to ~ 3.55 % TRUE has a ~ 6.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 6.47 % Pet has a ~ 6.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 0.19 % Sen has a ~ 6.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.06 % to ~ 2.08 % Has has a ~ 3.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Slam has a ~ 2.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 0.14 % Ian has a ~ 1.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.06 % DeParture has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
GSL S3 Code A - PartinG is at ~ 5.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.41 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.47 %. ~ 38.59 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.38 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sleep is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.48 % of the time Sleep wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 54.52 % of the time Sleep loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Avenge is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.03 % of the time Avenge wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 56.97 % of the time Avenge loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sora is at ~ 0.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.08 % of the time Sora wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.49 %. ~ 49.92 % of the time Sora loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.24 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.33 %. ~ 24.76 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TurN is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.22 % of the time TurN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 78.78 % of the time TurN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.7 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 52.3 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Panic is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.84 % of the time Panic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 44.16 % of the time Panic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 14 5:35am GMT (GMT+00:00) Red Bull Atlanta Completed and Many Changes! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600 #6 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #7Bomber is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3125 #8 KT Zest is at ~ 99.66 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #9 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 93.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #10 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 90.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 80.96 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 76.74 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 72.82 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 64.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #15 EG Jaedong is at ~ 55.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #16 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 50.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #17 Acer MMA is at ~ 26.02 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #18 Liquid Snute is at ~ 22.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 22.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #20 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 12.03 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #21 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 7.7 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #22 Ai Patience is at ~ 7.42 %, Min WCS Points: 1000 #23viOLet is at ~ 7.41 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #24 Jinair Maru is at ~ 7.28 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #25 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 7.11 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
Jaedong went up by ~ 14.64 %, going from ~ 40.37 % to ~ 55.01 % Bomber went up by ~ 4.75 %, going from ~ 95.24 % to ~ 99.99 % Patience went up by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 6.22 % to ~ 7.42 %
MMA went down by ~ 3.6 %, going from ~ 29.62 % to ~ 26.02 % ForGG went down by ~ 2.36 %, going from ~ 24.85 % to ~ 22.5 % soO went down by ~ 2.07 %, going from ~ 66.55 % to ~ 64.48 % Life went down by ~ 2.04 %, going from ~ 82.99 % to ~ 80.96 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.98 %, going from ~ 52.78 % to ~ 50.8 % Snute went down by ~ 1.82 %, going from ~ 24.34 % to ~ 22.52 % Solar went down by ~ 1.66 %, going from ~ 7.1 % to ~ 5.44 % sOs went down by ~ 1.17 %, going from ~ 73.99 % to ~ 72.82 % herO went down by ~ 1.14 %, going from ~ 77.88 % to ~ 76.74 % jjakji went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 92.04 % to ~ 90.99 % Classic went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 94.83 % to ~ 93.8 %
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.1 % of the time 2,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.64 % of the time 2,375 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 30.95 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.44 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.01 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 81.82 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 94.34 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,675 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
I've also made some changes to the website and the simulator. First change is I have added must win matches highlights. A must win match is a match where a player's Blizzcon Chances would fall extremely low if they were to lose the match, and they must also have a decent Blizzcon Chance to start with. Must win matches are highlighted with a bright red border around them, and text like this :kr: INnoVation must win this!.
There is also a page that shows all the must win upcoming matches, and lists the players that must win as well as some other info about them. You can find a link to the must win matches page under the players table on the front page, or just click here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=mustwins
To go along with must win matches, I have tweaked the display of upcoming matches that have big effects. These important matches are highlighted with a pink or red border, and have text like this This match is important for sOs! This match is important for herO!
On the players tables and tooltips I have replaced Mode WCS Points with Median WCS Points. I think now it's becoming clear that Median WCS Points are more valuable.
I have greatly reduced redundant events. This means that where before you would see an event for [winning Code A], [winning Code S], and [winning Code A AND winning Code S], now it only shows the separate 2 events. Since the player cannot win Code S without winning Code A, the grouped together event is redundant.
I tweaked the way events are scored (for the sorting) so that the likeliness of the event has less of an impact on its score. This means that a rare 2nd place that helps the player a lot will probably show up higher than an expected 16th place with a small change to their Blizzcon Chances.
I also greatly increased the number of events that are counted for and displayed for each player. Currently there are 58 for Jaedong and 50 for Maru! This is a huge increase over before where it was maybe 10 to 15 for each player.
And lastly I added "Or Events". An Or Event is when 2 different events of the same tournament and player are combined as in "Jaedong gets 4th or 8th in WCS AM S3 Premier". These will only happen with adjacent placings, so you will not see "1st or 16th". I might make it so Or Events could be 3 placings combined, like "Maru gets 4th, 8th, or 16th in GSL".
Also try out the Search filter on events tables. The Search box is at the top of the table. Try typing in player names, tournament names, placings like "1st" or "4th". Also there are some special keywords like "or", "simple", "multiple", "other" (meaning something another player does affects my chances), "single", "double", and "triple".
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jul 08 7:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Code A Previews and Group of Death! Also added hendralisk to Red Bull Atlanta.
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 KT Zest is at ~ 99.35 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 94.65 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 91.93 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #10Bomber is at ~ 91.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2375 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 82.55 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 77.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 75.03 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 66.54 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #15 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 53.18 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 42.22 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Acer MMA is at ~ 33.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.14 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #19 Liquid Snute is at ~ 23.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #20 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #21 Jinair Maru is at ~ 8.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #22 Liquid HerO is at ~ 8.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #23 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 7.84 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 7.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #25 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 7.25 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
herO went down by ~ 1.69 %, going from ~ 79.54 % to ~ 77.85 % soO went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 67.61 % to ~ 66.54 % sOs went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 75.77 % to ~ 75.03 % Rain went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 7.87 % to ~ 7.25 % Maru went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 8.99 % to ~ 8.47 %
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.14 % of the time 2,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 2.15 % of the time 2,375 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 35.28 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 55.27 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 72.31 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 85.45 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 96.61 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,600 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
GSL S3 Code A - INnoVation is at ~ 9.45 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.87 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.72 %. ~ 27.13 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hurricane is at ~ 0.05 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.88 % of the time Hurricane wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 51.12 % of the time Hurricane loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hyvaa is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.08 % of the time hyvaa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 60.92 % of the time hyvaa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ruin is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.17 % of the time Ruin wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 60.83 % of the time Ruin loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.52 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.99 %. ~ 24.48 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TurN is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.57 % of the time TurN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 78.43 % of the time TurN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.91 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 53.09 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Panic is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.99 % of the time Panic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.05 %. ~ 44.01 % of the time Panic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Dark is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.88 % of the time Dark wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.25 %. ~ 56.12 % of the time Dark loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RagnaroK is at ~ 0.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.51 % of the time RagnaroK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.61 %. ~ 50.49 % of the time RagnaroK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Billowy is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.85 % of the time Billowy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 56.15 % of the time Billowy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dear is at ~ 5.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.75 % of the time Dear wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.3 %. ~ 37.25 % of the time Dear loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.99 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Rain is at ~ 7.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.61 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.57 %. ~ 35.39 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hydra is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.37 % of the time Hydra wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.27 %. ~ 55.63 % of the time Hydra loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Impact is at ~ 0.27 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.5 % of the time Impact wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.65 %. ~ 59.5 % of the time Impact loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.52 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 49.48 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - TY is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.88 % of the time TY wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.18 %. ~ 41.12 % of the time TY loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 0.16 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.8 % of the time ByuL wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.26 %. ~ 39.2 % of the time ByuL loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sKyHigh is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 37.29 % of the time sKyHigh wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 62.71 % of the time sKyHigh loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.02 % of the time Shine wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 56.98 % of the time Shine loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Symbol is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.37 % of the time Symbol wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 48.63 % of the time Symbol loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Flash is at ~ 0.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.92 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.34 %. ~ 42.08 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TAiLS is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.01 % of the time TAiLS wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 51.99 % of the time TAiLS loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hush is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.71 % of the time Hush wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 57.28 % of the time Hush loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code A - PartinG is at ~ 6.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.37 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.28 %. ~ 36.63 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sleep is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.24 % of the time Sleep wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 60.76 % of the time Sleep loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Avenge is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.22 % of the time Avenge wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.1 %. ~ 54.78 % of the time Avenge loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sora is at ~ 0.34 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.16 % of the time Sora wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.64 %. ~ 47.84 % of the time Sora loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - RorO is at ~ 0.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.31 % of the time RorO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.42 %. ~ 47.69 % of the time RorO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - aLive is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.85 % of the time aLive wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 64.15 % of the time aLive loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 0.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.79 % of the time Bbyong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.99 %. ~ 50.21 % of the time Bbyong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 3.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.06 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.13 %. ~ 37.94 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.32 %.
GSL S3 Code A sOs has the #1 headband! - Super is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.14 % of the time Super wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.24 %. ~ 58.86 % of the time Super loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 75.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.54 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 82.19 %. ~ 34.46 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 61.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 77.85 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.7 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 84.86 %. ~ 39.3 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 67.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.61 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.13 %. ~ 67.39 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Life is at ~ 82.55 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 69.36 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 88.93 %. ~ 30.64 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 68.11 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.8 % of the time Stats wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 61.2 % of the time Stats loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.15 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 52.85 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.7 % of the time Rogue wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.15 %. ~ 55.3 % of the time Rogue loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Leenock is at ~ 0.56 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.59 % of the time Leenock wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.9 %. ~ 38.41 % of the time Leenock loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SuperNova is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.43 % of the time SuperNova wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.2 %. ~ 46.57 % of the time SuperNova loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.7 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 55.3 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Terminator is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.28 % of the time Terminator wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 59.72 % of the time Terminator loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code A - YongHwa is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.5 % of the time YongHwa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.23 %. ~ 43.5 % of the time YongHwa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.26 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.62 % of the time Stork wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.47 %. ~ 46.38 % of the time Stork loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FanTaSy is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.24 % of the time FanTaSy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 61.76 % of the time FanTaSy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trust is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.64 % of the time Trust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.12 %. ~ 48.36 % of the time Trust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A INnoVation is at ~ 9.45 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hurricane is at ~ 0.05 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 hyvaa is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Ruin is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 9.51625
Group B DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TurN is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Panic is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 1.54975
Group C Dark is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 RagnaroK is at ~ 0.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Billowy is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Dear is at ~ 5.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 6.006
Group D Rain is at ~ 7.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hydra is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Impact is at ~ 0.27 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Cure is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 7.69865
Group E TY is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ByuL is at ~ 0.16 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 sKyHigh is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Shine is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 0.28315
Group F Symbol is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Flash is at ~ 0.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TAiLS is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hush is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 0.26415
Group G PartinG is at ~ 6.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Sleep is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Avenge is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Sora is at ~ 0.34 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 7.10205
Group H RorO is at ~ 0.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 aLive is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bbyong is at ~ 0.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Trap is at ~ 3.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 4.03795
Group I Super is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 sOs is at ~ 75.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 herO is at ~ 77.85 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Reality is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 153.016
Group J Life is at ~ 82.55 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stats is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bunny is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Rogue is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 82.6539
Group K Leenock is at ~ 0.56 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 SuperNova is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 EffOrt is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Terminator is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 0.682
Group L YongHwa is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stork is at ~ 0.26 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 FanTaSy is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Trust is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 0.46265
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores for the top 4 I > J > A > D
Group A INnoVation's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.45 % Hurricane's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % hyvaa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Ruin's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.454517
Group B DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.34 % TurN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % MyuNgSiK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Panic's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.3504
Group C Dark's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % RagnaroK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Billowy's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Dear's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.35 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.317817
Group D Rain's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.62 % Hydra's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Impact's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Cure's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.682763
Group E TY's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % ByuL's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % sKyHigh's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Shine's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.03718
Group F Symbol's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Flash's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % TAiLS's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Hush's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0259467
Group G PartinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.49 % Sleep's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Avenge's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Sora's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.5205
Group H RorO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % aLive's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Bbyong's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Trap's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.12 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.101613
Group I Super's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % sOs's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.75 % herO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -1.69 % Reality's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 2.46568
Group J Life's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 1.81 % Stats's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Bunny's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Rogue's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.81064
Group K Leenock's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.08 % SuperNova's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % EffOrt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Terminator's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0875567
Group L YongHwa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Stork's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % FanTaSy's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Trust's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0278367
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores for the top 4 I > D > G > F
Group A When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.27 % When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 8.78 % When Hurricane wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When Hurricane loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.05 % When hyvaa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When hyvaa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Ruin wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Ruin loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 12.1914
Group B When DongRaeGu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.48 % When DongRaeGu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.48 % When TurN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When TurN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When MyuNgSiK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When MyuNgSiK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Panic wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When Panic loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 2.02861
Group C When Dark wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Dark loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.11 % When RagnaroK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.3 % When RagnaroK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.3 % When Billowy wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When Billowy loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % When Dear wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.72 % When Dear loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 4.59 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 8.19246
Group D When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.32 % When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.06 % When Hydra wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.15 % When Hydra loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.12 % When Impact wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.38 % When Impact loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.26 % When Cure wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Cure loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 10.3923
Group E When TY wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.07 % When TY loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.1 % When ByuL wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.1 % When ByuL loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.15 % When sKyHigh wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When sKyHigh loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Shine wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When Shine loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.473593
Group F When Symbol wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Symbol loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.19 % When TAiLS wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When TAiLS loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Hush wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Hush loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.466247
Group G When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.58 % When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.19 % When Sleep wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When Sleep loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Avenge wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Avenge loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % When Sora wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.3 % When Sora loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.33 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 10.5363
Group H When RorO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.2 % When RorO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.22 % When aLive wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When aLive loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Bbyong wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.49 % When Bbyong loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.49 % When Trap wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.83 % When Trap loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.99 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 6.22873
Group I When Super wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Super loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.1 % When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.16 % When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 13.63 % When herO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.02 % When herO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 10.84 % When Reality wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.09 % When Reality loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 39.0144
Group J When Life wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.38 % When Life loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 14.44 % When Stats wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Stats loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When Bunny wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Bunny loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Rogue wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.08 % When Rogue loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 21.0672
Group K When Leenock wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.34 % When Leenock loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.54 % When SuperNova wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.09 % When SuperNova loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.11 % When EffOrt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When EffOrt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Terminator wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Terminator loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 1.11857
Group L When YongHwa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.1 % When YongHwa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.13 % When Stork wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.21 % When Stork loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.25 % When FanTaSy wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When FanTaSy loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Trust wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When Trust loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.843252
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores for the top 4 I > J > A > G
Group A INnoVation has an overall Aligulac rating of 2122 Hurricane has an overall Aligulac rating of 1688 hyvaa has an overall Aligulac rating of 1488 Ruin has an overall Aligulac rating of 1462 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6760
Group B DongRaeGu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1872 TurN has an overall Aligulac rating of 1292 MyuNgSiK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1465 Panic has an overall Aligulac rating of 1568 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6197
Group C Dark has an overall Aligulac rating of 1720 RagnaroK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1792 Billowy has an overall Aligulac rating of 1568 Dear has an overall Aligulac rating of 1872 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6952
Group D Rain has an overall Aligulac rating of 1959 Hydra has an overall Aligulac rating of 1712 Impact has an overall Aligulac rating of 1669 Cure has an overall Aligulac rating of 1730 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7070
Group E TY has an overall Aligulac rating of 1746 ByuL has an overall Aligulac rating of 1752 sKyHigh has an overall Aligulac rating of 1487 Shine has an overall Aligulac rating of 1548 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6533
Group F Symbol has an overall Aligulac rating of 1685 Flash has an overall Aligulac rating of 1822 TAiLS has an overall Aligulac rating of 1491 Hush has an overall Aligulac rating of 1471 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6469
Group G PartinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1996 Sleep has an overall Aligulac rating of 1595 Avenge has an overall Aligulac rating of 1688 Sora has an overall Aligulac rating of 1854 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7133
Group H RorO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1759 aLive has an overall Aligulac rating of 1558 Bbyong has an overall Aligulac rating of 1761 Trap has an overall Aligulac rating of 1835 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6913
Group I Super has an overall Aligulac rating of 1746 sOs has an overall Aligulac rating of 2081 herO has an overall Aligulac rating of 2042 Reality has an overall Aligulac rating of 1721 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7590
Group J Life has an overall Aligulac rating of 1953 Stats has an overall Aligulac rating of 1555 Bunny has an overall Aligulac rating of 1553 Rogue has an overall Aligulac rating of 1587 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6648
Group K Leenock has an overall Aligulac rating of 1842 SuperNova has an overall Aligulac rating of 1768 EffOrt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1604 Terminator has an overall Aligulac rating of 1400 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6614
Group L YongHwa has an overall Aligulac rating of 1722 Stork has an overall Aligulac rating of 1660 FanTaSy has an overall Aligulac rating of 1559 Trust has an overall Aligulac rating of 1693 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6634
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores for the top 4 I > G > D > C
I has 4 1st places J has 2 2nd places G has 1 2nd place, 1 3rd place, and 1 4th place D has 1 2nd place, 1 3rd place, and 1 4th place A has 2 3rd places C has 1 4th place F has 1 4th place
Group I is our Group of Death winning in all 4 of our categories! Congrats to Super, sOs, herO, and Reality! For 2nd place Group of Death it looks like a close battle between Groups J, D, and G, but I'm giving the nod to Group J.
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 KT Zest is at ~ 99.29 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 94.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 91.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #10Bomber is at ~ 91.29 %, Min WCS Points: 2375 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 80.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 79.53 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 75.82 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 67.61 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #15 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 52.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 42.11 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Acer MMA is at ~ 33.67 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.04 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #19 Liquid Snute is at ~ 23.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #20 Jinair Maru is at ~ 9.04 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #21 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.01 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #22 Liquid HerO is at ~ 8.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #23 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 7.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #24 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 7.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 7.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1475
MMA went up by ~ 21.63 %, going from ~ 12.04 % to ~ 33.67 % Snute went up by ~ 14.46 %, going from ~ 9.43 % to ~ 23.89 % jjakji went up by ~ 13.12 %, going from ~ 78.6 % to ~ 91.72 % ForGG went up by ~ 4.1 %, going from ~ 20.94 % to ~ 25.04 % Bomber went up by ~ 4.07 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 91.29 % viOLet went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 5.18 % to ~ 6.74 % Bunny went up by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 2.81 % to ~ 4.36 % VortiX went up by ~ 0.57 %, going from ~ 7.17 % to ~ 7.74 %
Life went down by ~ 9.53 %, going from ~ 90.27 % to ~ 80.75 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 8.05 %, going from ~ 60.9 % to ~ 52.85 % Jaedong went down by ~ 7.79 %, going from ~ 49.9 % to ~ 42.11 % soO went down by ~ 6.89 %, going from ~ 74.5 % to ~ 67.61 % sOs went down by ~ 5.06 %, going from ~ 80.88 % to ~ 75.82 % herO went down by ~ 4.73 %, going from ~ 84.26 % to ~ 79.53 % Classic went down by ~ 2.76 %, going from ~ 97.47 % to ~ 94.72 % HerO went down by ~ 2.36 %, going from ~ 10.47 % to ~ 8.12 % Maru went down by ~ 1.36 %, going from ~ 10.4 % to ~ 9.04 % Alicia went down by ~ 1.35 %, going from ~ 8.8 % to ~ 7.45 % Rain went down by ~ 1.1 %, going from ~ 8.98 % to ~ 7.88 % Dear went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 6.19 % to ~ 5.19 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 5.75 % to ~ 4.82 % Oz went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 3.84 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.66 %, going from ~ 9.68 % to ~ 9.01 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 7.74 % to ~ 7.18 % Zest went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.81 % to ~ 99.29 % Solar went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 3.5 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 07 3:25am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Season 2 Completed! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4100 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075 #4 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 99.78 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 KT Zest is at ~ 99.66 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #9Bomber is at ~ 95.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #10 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 91.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 86.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2450 #12 StarTale Life is at ~ 86.13 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #13 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 84.18 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #14 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 72.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #15 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 63.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 44.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 18.94 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #18 Acer MMA is at ~ 10.87 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #19 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.27 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #20 Liquid HerO is at ~ 8.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #21 Liquid Snute is at ~ 8.64 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #22 Jinair Maru is at ~ 8.46 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #23 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 8.19 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 7.86 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #25 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 7.37 %, Min WCS Points: 1050
Pigbaby went up by ~ 60.33 %, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 63.72 % Bomber went up by ~ 39.75 %, going from ~ 55.62 % to ~ 95.36 % sOs went up by ~ 31.73 %, going from ~ 54.51 % to ~ 86.24 % herO went up by ~ 21.93 %, going from ~ 69.78 % to ~ 91.71 % StarDust went up by ~ 16.53 %, going from ~ 83.47 % to ~ 100 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 2.56 %
Alicia went down by ~ 21.16 %, going from ~ 29.02 % to ~ 7.86 % ForGG went down by ~ 20.07 %, going from ~ 39.01 % to ~ 18.94 % VortiX went down by ~ 18.47 %, going from ~ 25.29 % to ~ 6.81 % First went down by ~ 16.44 %, going from ~ 21.57 % to ~ 5.13 % viOLet went down by ~ 15.55 %, going from ~ 20.44 % to ~ 4.89 % Welmu went down by ~ 9.67 %, going from ~ 12.29 % to ~ 2.62 % jjakji went down by ~ 8.57 %, going from ~ 80.76 % to ~ 72.19 % Jaedong went down by ~ 7.44 %, going from ~ 52.42 % to ~ 44.99 % Heart went down by ~ 6.46 %, going from ~ 10.16 % to ~ 3.7 % soO went down by ~ 6.26 %, going from ~ 90.44 % to ~ 84.18 % Life went down by ~ 6.26 %, going from ~ 92.39 % to ~ 86.13 % Maru went down by ~ 4.84 %, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 8.46 % Golden went down by ~ 3.95 %, going from ~ 7.15 % to ~ 3.2 % PartinG went down by ~ 3.48 %, going from ~ 10.85 % to ~ 7.37 % HerO went down by ~ 2.5 %, going from ~ 11.38 % to ~ 8.88 % MMA went down by ~ 2.43 %, going from ~ 13.29 % to ~ 10.87 % Soulkey went down by ~ 2.24 %, going from ~ 7.45 % to ~ 5.21 % Rain went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 9.49 % to ~ 8.19 % Dear went down by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 6.67 % to ~ 5.5 % Oz went down by ~ 0.84 %, going from ~ 4.87 % to ~ 4.04 % Sen went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 1.5 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 1.97 % to ~ 1.2 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.63 %, going from ~ 9.9 % to ~ 9.27 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 0.83 % Bbyong went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 0.61 % Trap went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 3.79 % to ~ 3.29 %
Pigbaby rising so much so quickly into the top 16 has made it tougher for everyone that is now below him.
With Protoss taking the triple crown, they now hold ~ 50.44 % of the chances, breaking over the 50% mark for the first time in months. Terran is at ~ 26.91 % and Zerg is at ~ 22.65 %.
The hopes of getting at least 1 foreigner into Blizzcon is now at ~ 32.63 %, and getting 2 or more is at ~ 2.77 % chances.
Also I have finally added WCS Point Cutoffs to the front page! This shows the % chances that the 16th ranked player at the end of the year has X many points or less. + Show Spoiler [Point Cutoffs] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.02 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.3 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 4.76 % of the time 2,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 37.95 % of the time 2,625 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 59.14 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.06 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 90.11 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
So this means that ~ 59.14 % of the time, the 16th ranked player ends up with 2,700 or less WCS Points. It also says that 2,150 points is never enough to qualify in these simulations, and 3,550 points is always enough in these simulations. If you go on the website, you can click on "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to see even more details.
Remember the check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Jul 06 8:55pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU S2 Completed and WCS AM Semifinals Previews! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4100 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075 #4 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 99.95 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 KT Zest is at ~ 99.94 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #9 StarTale Life is at ~ 94.64 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #10 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 92.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #11 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 84.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #12Bomber is at ~ 79.38 %, Min WCS Points: 2125 #13 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 73.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #14 Jinair sOs is at ~ 58.35 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #15 EG Jaedong is at ~ 56.2 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 24.16 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #17 Axiom Heart is at ~ 22.56 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #18 Jinair Maru is at ~ 14.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #19 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 13.63 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #20 Acer MMA is at ~ 13.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #21 Liquid HerO is at ~ 12.63 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #22 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 11.28 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #23 Liquid Snute is at ~ 10.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #24 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 10.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 10.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1475
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 79.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.21 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.07 %. ~ 42.79 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 53.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 22.56 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.79 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 47.12 %. ~ 57.21 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.2 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.94 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.06 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 13.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.06 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 33.4 %. ~ 64.94 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.95 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier HyuN has a ~ 45.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 26.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 79.38 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 15.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 22.56 % to ~ 96.88 % Pigbaby has a ~ 13.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.63 % to ~ 72.92 %
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 22.56 % to ~ 11.17 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.64 % to ~ 2.99 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 56.2 % to ~ 58.65 % This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.8 % to ~ 87.14 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.37 % to ~ 60.68 % This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.41 % to ~ 75.69 %
This would change Bomber's Blizzcon chances from ~ 79.38 % to ~ 49.46 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.64 % to ~ 6.13 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.37 % to ~ 54.49 %
Remember the check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Jul 06 5:15am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Semifinals! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3575 #4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3400 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #6 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 99.92 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #7 KT Zest is at ~ 99.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 96.42 %, Min WCS Points: 2600 #9 StarTale Life is at ~ 92.14 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #10 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 90.37 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #11 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 80.92 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #12Bomber is at ~ 77.77 %, Min WCS Points: 2125 #13 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 70.02 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #14 Jinair sOs is at ~ 55.11 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #15 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 53.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 52.53 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Axiom Heart is at ~ 21.85 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #18 Ai Golden is at ~ 13.8 %, Min WCS Points: 950 #19 Jinair Maru is at ~ 13.28 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #20 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 12.93 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #21 Acer MMA is at ~ 12.57 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #22 Liquid HerO is at ~ 11.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #23 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 10.85 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #24 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #25 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 9.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
Bomber went up by ~ 22.25 %, going from ~ 55.52 % to ~ 77.77 % ForGG went up by ~ 13.92 %, going from ~ 39.18 % to ~ 53.1 % StarDust went up by ~ 12.96 %, going from ~ 83.45 % to ~ 96.42 % Heart went up by ~ 11.74 %, going from ~ 10.11 % to ~ 21.85 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 9.55 %, going from ~ 3.38 % to ~ 12.93 % Golden went up by ~ 6.42 %, going from ~ 7.38 % to ~ 13.8 %
Alicia went down by ~ 19.59 %, going from ~ 28.94 % to ~ 9.35 % VortiX went down by ~ 18.17 %, going from ~ 25.52 % to ~ 7.36 % viOLet went down by ~ 15.41 %, going from ~ 20.85 % to ~ 5.44 % First went down by ~ 15.3 %, going from ~ 21.01 % to ~ 5.7 % Welmu went down by ~ 9.14 %, going from ~ 12.27 % to ~ 3.13 %
The chances of having 1+ foreigners qualify for Blizzcon went from ~ 54.91 % down to ~ 36.48 %, and the chances of having 2+ foreigners qualify went from ~ 12.03 % down to ~ 3.97 %. Snute is the new top foreign hope, with ~ 8.35 % chances, after Vortix fell from ~ 25.52 % down to ~ 7.36 %, and Welmu fell from ~ 12.27 % down to ~ 3.13 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 69.72 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 30.28 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 13.8 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.28 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 37.56 %. ~ 69.72 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.49 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 53.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.57 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 84.22 %. ~ 51.43 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 23.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 96.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.43 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 48.57 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 92.63 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 37.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 26.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.42 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 25.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.13 % to ~ 99.99 % Golden has a ~ 11.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.8 % to ~ 79.76 %
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.8 % to ~ 3.51 % This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.13 % to ~ 44.99 % This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.9 % to ~ 82.84 %
This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.13 % to ~ 24.01 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.8 % to ~ 7.54 % This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.9 % to ~ 84.48 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 52.54 % to ~ 55.83 % This would change CJ herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.02 % to ~ 73.15 %
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.8 % to ~ 6.53 % This would change StarDust's Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.42 % to ~ 92.05 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 52.54 % to ~ 48.98 % This would change CJ herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.02 % to ~ 66.75 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 55.11 % to ~ 51.87 %
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 77.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.22 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.59 %. ~ 42.78 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 49.94 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 21.85 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.78 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 45.66 %. ~ 57.22 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.05 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.93 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.07 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 12.93 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.07 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 31.61 %. ~ 64.93 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.84 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier HyuN has a ~ 45.48 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 26.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.77 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 15.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.85 % to ~ 95.45 % Pigbaby has a ~ 13.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.93 % to ~ 68.97 %
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.85 % to ~ 10.45 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.93 % to ~ 2.88 % This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.91 % to ~ 83.38 % This would change CJ herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.03 % to ~ 72.19 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 55.11 % to ~ 57.18 %
--------UPDATE Monday, Jun 23 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3325 #4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #5 KT Zest is at ~ 99.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2800 #7 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 94.45 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 StarTale Life is at ~ 93.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 83.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #10 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 80.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #11 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 76.53 %, Min WCS Points: 1900 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 73.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 57.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 EG Jaedong is at ~ 53.23 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #15Bomber is at ~ 41.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 39.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #17 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 24.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #18First is at ~ 21.15 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #19 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1425 #20 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.4 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #21 Acer MMA is at ~ 14.63 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #22viOLet is at ~ 13.91 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #23 NrS Welmu is at ~ 13.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1350 #24 Jinair Maru is at ~ 12.91 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 12.57 %, Min WCS Points: 700
WCS AM S2 Premier - Heart is at ~ 6.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.77 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.76 %. ~ 47.23 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 20.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.35 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 30.45 %. ~ 43.65 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 6.73 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.44 % of the time XiGua wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.22 %. ~ 58.56 % of the time XiGua loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 2.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.44 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.58 %. ~ 50.56 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.29 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.27 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 28.73 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 1.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.94 % of the time NesTea wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.35 %. ~ 63.06 % of the time NesTea loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 15.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.26 % of the time Alicia wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 25.06 %. ~ 48.74 % of the time Alicia loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 8.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.53 % of the time Revival wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.51 %. ~ 59.47 % of the time Revival loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.89 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 41.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.33 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 55.76 %. ~ 40.67 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 20.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 99.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.03 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 34.97 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.6 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 2.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.3 % of the time TooDming wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.11 %. ~ 66.7 % of the time TooDming loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.35 % of the time Check wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 23.32 %. ~ 57.65 % of the time Check loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.68 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.66 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 29.34 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - viOLet is at ~ 13.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.32 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.88 %. ~ 50.68 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.18 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 9.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.23 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 6.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.08 % of the time Arthur wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.67 %. ~ 65.92 % of the time Arthur loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.47 %.
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. I did this before but I have to redo it now since the groups were redrawn. This time we will be looking at 5 different scores instead of just the normal 3. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Affects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Heart has a ~ 3.79 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Oz has a ~ 4.31 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier XiGua has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Pigbaby has a ~ 2.35 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 11.587
Group B HyuN has a ~ 20.49 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier NesTea has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Alicia has a ~ 5.06 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Revival has a ~ 3.02 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.0157
Group C Bomber has a ~ 8.85 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 12.95 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier TooDming has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Check has a ~ 3.52 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 26.7719
Group D TaeJa has a ~ 18.85 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier viOLet has a ~ 5.86 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier MajOr has a ~ 4.27 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Arthur has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 31.6254
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores D > B > C > A
Group A Heart is at ~ 6.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Oz is at ~ 20.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 XiGua is at ~ 1.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Pigbaby is at ~ 2.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 30.4117
Group B HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 NesTea is at ~ 1.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Alicia is at ~ 15.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Revival is at ~ 8.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 125.616
Group C Bomber is at ~ 41.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Polt is at ~ 99.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TooDming is at ~ 2.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Check is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 156.13
Group D TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 viOLet is at ~ 13.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MajOr is at ~ 9.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Arthur is at ~ 6.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 130.049
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores C > D > B > A
Group A Heart's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.36 % Oz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 2.04 % XiGua's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.17 % Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.28 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -2.86117
Group B HyuN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % NesTea's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.0 % Alicia's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.32 % Revival's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.6 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.385503
Group C Bomber's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.24 % Polt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % TooDming's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.2 % Check's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -2 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.970449
Group D TaeJa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % viOLet's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.6 % MajOr's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.5 % Arthur's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -20.1 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 2.39453
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores D > C > B > A
Group A When Heart wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.34 % When Heart loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 4.85 % When Oz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 10.36 % When Oz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 13.37 % When XiGua wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.73 % When XiGua loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.23 % When Pigbaby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.17 % When Pigbaby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.12 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 40.1758
Group B When HyuN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When HyuN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When NesTea wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.54 % When NesTea loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.49 % When Alicia wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.67 % When Alicia loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 10.17 % When Revival wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.1 % When Revival loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.52 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 37.4876
Group C When Bomber wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 14.54 % When Bomber loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 21.21 % When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.26 % When TooDming wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.64 % When TooDming loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.81 % When Check wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 10.75 % When Check loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.9 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 60.2409
Group D When TaeJa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When TaeJa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.97 % When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 8.73 % When MajOr wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.37 % When MajOr loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.27 % When Arthur wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.38 % When Arthur loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 3.82 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 42.5468
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores C > D > A > B
Group A Heart has an overall Aligulac rating of 1652 Oz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1663 XiGua has an overall Aligulac rating of 1476 Pigbaby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1566 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6357
Group B HyuN has an overall Aligulac rating of 2101 NesTea has an overall Aligulac rating of 1523 Alicia has an overall Aligulac rating of 1709 Revival has an overall Aligulac rating of 1656 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6989
Group C Bomber has an overall Aligulac rating of 1885 Polt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1974 TooDming has an overall Aligulac rating of 1552 Check has an overall Aligulac rating of 1695 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7106
Group D TaeJa has an overall Aligulac rating of 2094 viOLet has an overall Aligulac rating of 1794 MajOr has an overall Aligulac rating of 1722 Arthur has an overall Aligulac rating of 1638 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7248
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores D > C > B > A
Group A has 4 4th places and a 3rd place. Group B has 3 3rd places, 1 4th place, and 1 2nd place. Group C has both of the other 2 1st places and 2 2nd places and also a 3rd place. Group D has 3 1st places and 2 2nd places in these 5 rankings.
Group D is our Group of Death barely beating out Group C! Congrats to TaeJa, viOLet, MajOr, and Arthur!
GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 94.45 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.62 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 55.38 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 89.97 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 76.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.38 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.89 %. ~ 44.62 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 47.55 %.
-----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jun 17 5:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Summer in Review! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350 #2 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3325 #3 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3225 #4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #5 KT Zest is at ~ 99.9 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 95.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #7 StarTale Life is at ~ 91.02 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 81.91 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 75.32 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 74.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #11 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 70.57 %, Min WCS Points: 2000 #12 EG Jaedong is at ~ 67.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 57.33 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 50.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #15Bomber is at ~ 40.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #16 Jinair Maru is at ~ 40.72 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 40.57 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #18 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 27.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #19First is at ~ 21.99 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #20 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 19.79 %, Min WCS Points: 1425 #21 Liquid HerO is at ~ 16.41 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #22 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.86 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #23 Acer MMA is at ~ 15.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #24 NrS Welmu is at ~ 13.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1350 #25 Jinair TRUE is at ~ 13.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1000
Jaedong went up by ~ 14.99 %, going from ~ 43.28 % to ~ 58.28 % HerO went up by ~ 7.83 %, going from ~ 5.11 % to ~ 12.94 % Oz went up by ~ 4.43 %, going from ~ 16.56 % to ~ 20.99 % First went up by ~ 4.14 %, going from ~ 18.43 % to ~ 22.57 % TaeJa went up by ~ 3.05 %, going from ~ 96.95 % to ~ 99.99 % soO went up by ~ 2.06 %, going from ~ 70.18 % to ~ 72.24 % Patience went up by ~ 0.97 %, going from ~ 4.53 % to ~ 5.5 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 0.86 % to ~ 1.57 %
StarDust went down by ~ 12.49 %, going from ~ 80.65 % to ~ 68.16 % MMA went down by ~ 9.78 %, going from ~ 26.03 % to ~ 16.25 % Snute went down by ~ 5.76 %, going from ~ 16.03 % to ~ 10.27 % sOs went down by ~ 1.69 %, going from ~ 62.16 % to ~ 60.48 % Golden went down by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 6.44 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 42.97 % to ~ 41.74 % Maru went down by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 42.77 % to ~ 41.83 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.66 %, going from ~ 1.82 % to ~ 1.16 %
Also I set the confirmed MLG open bracket players, here are the biggest winners and losers from that. (I have not yet programmed in the full format so the previews will come later.) + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Jaedong went up by ~ 9.12 %, going from ~ 58.28 % to ~ 67.39 % StarDust went up by ~ 6.09 %, going from ~ 68.16 % to ~ 74.24 % Bomber went up by ~ 4.58 %, going from ~ 36.3 % to ~ 40.88 % HerO went up by ~ 3.47 %, going from ~ 12.94 % to ~ 16.41 % Life went up by ~ 2.99 %, going from ~ 88.03 % to ~ 91.02 % Alicia went up by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 14.19 % to ~ 15.86 % Revival went up by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 8.58 % to ~ 9.48 %
sOs went down by ~ 3.14 %, going from ~ 60.48 % to ~ 57.33 % jjakji went down by ~ 3.1 %, going from ~ 85.01 % to ~ 81.91 % herO went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 78.01 % to ~ 75.32 % soO went down by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 72.24 % to ~ 70.57 % Polt went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 97.16 % to ~ 95.86 % Oz went down by ~ 1.21 %, going from ~ 20.99 % to ~ 19.79 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 41.74 % to ~ 40.57 % MMA went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 16.25 % to ~ 15.12 % Maru went down by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 41.83 % to ~ 40.72 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.97 %, going from ~ 13.63 % to ~ 12.66 % Classic went down by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 51.37 % to ~ 50.52 % Rain went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 11.42 % to ~ 10.66 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 9.2 % to ~ 8.49 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.7 %, going from ~ 14.09 % to ~ 13.39 % Check went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 13.59 % to ~ 12.91 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 28.18 % to ~ 27.5 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 12.85 % to ~ 12.26 % Snute went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 10.27 % to ~ 9.69 % First went down by ~ 0.57 %, going from ~ 22.57 % to ~ 21.99 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 13.62 % to ~ 13.06 %
GSL S2 Code S - Maru is at ~ 40.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.57 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 74.76 %. ~ 56.43 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 50.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.43 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 80.9 %. ~ 43.57 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 11.18 %.
GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 70.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.13 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 94.27 %. ~ 37.87 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 13.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.87 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 32.79 %. ~ 62.13 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.03 %.
Also I added tournament pages! You can now click on a tournament name to see the players who have at least a small chance of winning the tournament, upcoming matches for the tournament, the winning chances, and also who would gain the most from winning the tournament. Here are a few example pages.
I hope to improve the tournament pages more in the future, along with the pages for races, countries, teams, and favorite players. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jun 12 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Summer Group Stage 2 Previews! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 By Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3900 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #3 KT Zest is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 99.88 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 97.44 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 97.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #7 StarTale Life is at ~ 89.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 86.61 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 80.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 69.83 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 64.73 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 47.13 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 45.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #14 Jinair Maru is at ~ 43.07 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 39.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16Bomber is at ~ 38.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 36.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1000 #18 Liquid Snute is at ~ 29.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #19 Acer MMA is at ~ 27.44 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #20 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 26.29 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 21.55 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #22First is at ~ 19.42 %, Min WCS Points: 400 #23 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 17.61 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 14.76 %, Min WCS Points: 700
Here are the DreamHack Summer Group Stage 2 previews. These previews only show the stats for the 2 players set in their group, but they are counting the players from group stage 1 too. Starts in + Show Spoiler [Scarlett, Harstem in DreamHack Summer] +
DreamHack Summer - Scarlett is at ~ 0.97 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 80.03 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.07 %. ~ 19.97 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 1.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.73 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.74 %. ~ 28.27 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.36 %.
DreamHack Summer - HyuN is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 88.72 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 11.28 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 1.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.02 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.55 %. ~ 29.98 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.21 %.
DreamHack Summer - First is at ~ 19.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.66 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.85 %. ~ 14.34 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.73 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 51.27 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - MC is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.13 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 15.87 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 17.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.44 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.84 %. ~ 27.56 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.38 %.
DreamHack Summer - ForGG is at ~ 36.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.91 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.73 %. ~ 14.09 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.31 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 1.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.41 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.53 %. ~ 28.59 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.14 %.
DreamHack Summer - Patience is at ~ 4.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 82.46 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.85 %. ~ 17.54 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.88 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zanster is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.03 % of the time Zanster wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 33.97 % of the time Zanster loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - Snute is at ~ 29.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.99 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.39 %. ~ 15.01 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 23.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.96 % of the time uThermal wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.21 %. ~ 30.04 % of the time uThermal loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.13 %.
DreamHack Summer - San is at ~ 99.88 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.43 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.9 %. ~ 10.57 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.18 % of the time Balloon wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 41.82 % of the time Balloon loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - TaeJa is at ~ 97.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 88.04 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 97.76 %. ~ 11.96 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 95.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.22 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 38.78 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - Tefel is at ~ 0.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.9 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.25 %. ~ 30.1 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 2.5 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 80.74 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.6 %. ~ 19.26 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.08 %.
DreamHack Summer - StarDust is at ~ 69.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.46 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.48 %. ~ 14.54 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 60.1 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Serral is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.57 % of the time Serral wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 32.43 % of the time Serral loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - MMA is at ~ 27.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 86.94 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.73 %. ~ 13.06 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 18.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ShoWTimE is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.39 % of the time ShoWTimE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 29.61 % of the time ShoWTimE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - jjakji is at ~ 86.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.01 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 87.94 %. ~ 10.99 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 75.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.95 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 43.05 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - Jaedong is at ~ 45.39 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.98 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 47.2 %. ~ 14.02 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 34.27 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 4.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.95 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.42 %. ~ 27.05 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.61 %.
DreamHack Summer - YoDa is at ~ 2.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.98 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.45 %. ~ 23.02 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 1.91 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 75.18 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.05 %. ~ 24.82 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.49 %.
DreamHack Summer - HerO is at ~ 5.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.75 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.89 %. ~ 23.25 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.75 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.02 %. ~ 27.25 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.29 %.
DreamHack Summer HyuN has a ~ 8.58 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 8.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.88 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 6.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 27.44 % to ~ 63.12 % jjakji has a ~ 6.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 86.61 % to ~ 99.99 % ForGG has a ~ 6.65 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 36.82 % to ~ 60.1 % TaeJa has a ~ 6.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.44 % to ~ 100 % MC has a ~ 5.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 5.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 69.83 % to ~ 98.29 % Snute has a ~ 4.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 29.33 % to ~ 60.42 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.9 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 45.39 % to ~ 93.43 % First has a ~ 4.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.42 % to ~ 30.02 % Patience has a ~ 3.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.68 % to ~ 11.42 % Scarlett has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 5.72 % Bunny has a ~ 2.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 7.74 % HerO has a ~ 2.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.46 % to ~ 24.12 % Golden has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.2 % to ~ 9.39 % YoDa has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.34 % to ~ 5.48 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.91 % to ~ 10.1 % Oz has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.61 % to ~ 56.38 % HuK has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.45 % to ~ 5.1 % Harstem has a ~ 1.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.63 % to ~ 3.99 % MaNa has a ~ 1.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.82 % to ~ 11.14 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 1.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.11 % TLO has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.42 % to ~ 8.03 % uThermal has a ~ 0.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.77 % Tefel has a ~ 0.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 0.99 % Serral has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % Zanster has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Socke has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 %
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--------UPDATE Sunday, Jun 08 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) HomeStory Cup 9 review! TaeJa finally puts the first Terran icon on the graphs!
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3800 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #3 KT Zest is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 99.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 97.58 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #6 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 97.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #7 StarTale Life is at ~ 90.43 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 86.64 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 81.07 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 70.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 65.29 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 EG Jaedong is at ~ 46.11 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #13 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 40.72 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #14 Liquid Snute is at ~ 39.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #15Bomber is at ~ 39.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 31.29 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #17 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 30.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #18 Jinair Maru is at ~ 28.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #19 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 27.28 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #20 Acer MMA is at ~ 26.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 22.36 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #22 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 21.26 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #23 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 18.91 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 14.21 %, Min WCS Points: 700
We now have 7 players with over 90% chances! MC, HyuN, Zest, San, Polt, TaeJa, and Life! And then over 50% we have jjakji, CJ herO, StarDust, and sOs! Finishing off the current top 16 in chances we have Jaedong, soO, Snute, Bomber, and ForGG.
MC is at a monstrous minimum WCS Points of 3,800, mode of 4,750, and a median of 4,875! MC has been over 99.99% since April 13th!
TaeJa went up by ~ 33.97 %, going from ~ 63.04 % to ~ 97.01 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.32 %, going from ~ 42.79 % to ~ 46.11 % jjakji went up by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 85.45 % to ~ 86.64 % Dayshi went up by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.02 % to ~ 2.07 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 0.25 % to ~ 0.89 % herO went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 80.56 % to ~ 81.07 %
Snute went down by ~ 15.42 %, going from ~ 55.22 % to ~ 39.8 % MMA went down by ~ 7.39 %, going from ~ 33.96 % to ~ 26.58 % Patience went down by ~ 2.95 %, going from ~ 7.71 % to ~ 4.76 % TLO went down by ~ 2.14 %, going from ~ 3.57 % to ~ 1.43 % ToD went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 4.27 % to ~ 2.88 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 13.37 % to ~ 12.17 % YoDa went down by ~ 1.17 %, going from ~ 5.88 % to ~ 4.71 % soO went down by ~ 1.1 %, going from ~ 41.83 % to ~ 40.72 % Solar went down by ~ 1.08 %, going from ~ 23.44 % to ~ 22.36 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 3.33 % to ~ 2.36 % HerO went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 6.61 % to ~ 5.69 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 8.77 % to ~ 8.08 % Stork went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 1.03 % to ~ 0.52 % Classic went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 31.16 % to ~ 30.66 %
Team Liquid is catching up to mYinsanity for the #1 team spot, with Liquid's ~ 9.38% vs mYinsanity's ~ 9.82%. On Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00) it was ~ 9.75% for mYinsanity and ~ 8.49% for Team Liquid.
Terran with ~ 28.53% is catching up to Zerg's ~ 28.73%, while Protoss still holds a strong lead at ~ 42.74%. On Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00) it was at ~ 26.95% T, ~ 29.76% Z, and ~ 43.28% P.
Make sure to check out the upcoming matches section on the website, I see lots of red and pink upcoming matches! Here is the next one, WCS EU Ro16 Group A, with BOTH top foreign hopes Snute and Vortix, along with Harstem and ForGG! Starts in + Show Spoiler [ForGG, VortiX, Snute, Harstem in WCS E…] +
WCS EU S2 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 31.29 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.5 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.29 %. ~ 43.5 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 21.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.53 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.16 %. ~ 42.47 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 39.8 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.02 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.93 %. ~ 44.98 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 2.89 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.96 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.91 %. ~ 69.04 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.65 %.
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--------UPDATE Thursday, Jun 05 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Premier Round of 16 set and HomeStory Cup 9 previews! The round of 16 groups for WCS AM Premier have been set! Time for the usual with ro16 Premier groups - overview, previews, and then analysis of Group of Death! Also HomeStory Cup 9 previews! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #2MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3175 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 97.37 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #6 StarTale Life is at ~ 89.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 79.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #8 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 79.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 70.25 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #10 Jinair sOs is at ~ 64.43 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #11 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #12 Liquid Snute is at ~ 52.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 43.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #14Bomber is at ~ 42.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 41.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 39.1 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 31.18 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #18 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 30.97 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Acer MMA is at ~ 30.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #20 Jinair Maru is at ~ 29.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 22.25 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #22VortiX is at ~ 21.39 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #23 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 16.57 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #24 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 15.75 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.46 %, Min WCS Points: 1175
Bomber went up by ~ 2.34 %, going from ~ 39.99 % to ~ 42.34 % Heart went up by ~ 1.44 %, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 9.64 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 11.27 % to ~ 12.01 %
Oz went down by ~ 1.64 %, going from ~ 17.39 % to ~ 15.75 % Check went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 15.46 % to ~ 14.46 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 9.67 % to ~ 8.76 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 16.17 % to ~ 15.46 %
WCS AM S2 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 12.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.52 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.35 %. ~ 42.48 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 2.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.93 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.36 %. ~ 56.07 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 9.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 63.07 % of the time Heart wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.9 %. ~ 36.93 % of the time Heart loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.38 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.73 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.49 % of the time XiGua wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.19 %. ~ 64.51 % of the time XiGua loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.38 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.7 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 27.3 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 15.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.35 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.5 %. ~ 62.65 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 15.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.97 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 27.49 %. ~ 55.03 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 10.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.98 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.91 %. ~ 55.02 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.63 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 42.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.27 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 53.56 %. ~ 33.73 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 9.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.84 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.38 %. ~ 52.16 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 14.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.25 % of the time Check wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.88 %. ~ 55.75 % of the time Check loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 2.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.65 % of the time Pigbaby wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.29 %. ~ 58.35 % of the time Pigbaby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.29 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.88 %. ~ 37.71 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 42.69 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 97.37 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.47 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.7 %. ~ 37.53 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 93.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 2.98 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.68 % of the time TooDming wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.81 %. ~ 64.32 % of the time TooDming loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 8.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.56 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.12 %. ~ 60.44 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.29 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier HyuN has a ~ 23.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 13.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.37 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa has a ~ 11.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 10.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.34 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 97.69 % Heart has a ~ 5.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.64 % to ~ 97.64 % Alicia has a ~ 4.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.46 % to ~ 100 % Arthur has a ~ 3.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.63 % to ~ 99.86 % Check has a ~ 3.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.46 % to ~ 99.99 % Revival has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.95 % to ~ 99.99 % MajOr has a ~ 3.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.76 % to ~ 99.71 % Oz has a ~ 2.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.75 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.9 % to ~ 74.26 % NesTea has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.64 % to ~ 86.67 % TooDming has a ~ 1.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.98 % to ~ 96.72 % XiGua has a ~ 1.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.73 % to ~ 89.46 %
HomeStory Cup 9 - MMA is at ~ 30.71 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 73.45 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.88 %. ~ 26.55 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 2.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.35 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.99 %. ~ 30.65 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 0.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.99 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.45 %. ~ 49.01 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iNcontroL is at ~ 0 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 6.2 % of the time iNcontroL wins and their chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 93.8 % of the time iNcontroL loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - jjakji is at ~ 79.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.33 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 84.73 %. ~ 27.67 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 67.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NightEnD is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.78 % of the time NightEnD wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 74.22 % of the time NightEnD loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TargA is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.68 % of the time TargA wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 46.32 % of the time TargA loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HeRoMaRinE is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.22 % of the time HeRoMaRinE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 51.78 % of the time HeRoMaRinE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - MC is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.4 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 27.6 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 3.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.2 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.03 %. ~ 42.8 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 0.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.92 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.8 %. ~ 56.08 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.48 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.52 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - Snute is at ~ 52.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 81.93 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.24 %. ~ 18.07 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 40.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.69 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 62.31 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - White-Ra is at ~ 0 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 13.2 % of the time White-Ra wins and their chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 86.8 % of the time White-Ra loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.84 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.19 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.99 %. ~ 32.81 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.52 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - Bomber is at ~ 42.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 79.26 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.83 %. ~ 20.74 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 32.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 4.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.47 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.84 %. ~ 42.53 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ret is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.28 % of the time Ret wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.72 % of the time Ret loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.99 % of the time Balloon wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.01 % of the time Balloon loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - YoDa is at ~ 5.89 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.99 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.76 %. ~ 49.01 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.18 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.37 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.84 %. ~ 52.63 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 43.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.95 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 49.82 %. ~ 33.05 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 30.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.69 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 65.31 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - Stephano is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.4 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.63 %. ~ 52.6 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HasuObs is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.99 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 51.01 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 3.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.12 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.09 %. ~ 43.88 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Armani is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.48 % of the time Armani wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.05 %. ~ 52.52 % of the time Armani loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.86 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 68.37 %. ~ 33.14 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 53.27 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 0.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.39 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.4 %. ~ 52.61 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - roof is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 23.97 % of the time roof wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 76.03 % of the time roof loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 7.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.77 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.28 %. ~ 38.23 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.48 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 MMA has a ~ 11.9 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 30.71 % to ~ 63.24 % jjakji has a ~ 10.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 79.85 % to ~ 99.94 % Snute has a ~ 10.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 52.52 % to ~ 83.12 % MC has a ~ 9.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 43.54 % to ~ 87.09 % Bomber has a ~ 7.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.34 % to ~ 74.41 % TaeJa has a ~ 7.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 94.15 % Patience has a ~ 6.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.83 % to ~ 22.14 % Stork has a ~ 3.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.84 % to ~ 2.7 % Bunny has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.36 % to ~ 14.26 % Scarlett has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.88 % YoDa has a ~ 2.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.89 % to ~ 14.31 % HasuObs has a ~ 2.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.23 % TLO has a ~ 2.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 14.58 % Harstem has a ~ 1.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 9.39 % ToD has a ~ 1.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.38 % to ~ 11.47 % HeRoMaRinE has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.18 % MaNa has a ~ 1.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.18 % to ~ 12.34 % Stephano has a ~ 1.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 1.85 % TargA has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.13 % Armani has a ~ 1.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.24 % BlinG has a ~ 1.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.36 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 3.21 % Socke has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 %
Now let's look at some stats to figure out the group of death. We will look at 3 different scores the same way we did the GSL and WCS EU ro16 analysis. WCS AM Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Group A - viOLet has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win WCS AM Season 2. NesTea has a ~ 1.86 % chance XiGua has a ~ 1.16 % chance Heart has a ~ 5.51 % chance All these chances added up gives a 14.47 WCS AM Chances Score for Group A
Group B - Alicia has a ~ 4.57 % chance Revival has a ~ 3.68 % chance HyuN has a ~ 23.38 % chance Oz has a ~ 2.79 % chance 34.42 WCS AM Chances Score for Group B
Group C - Pigbaby has a ~ 2.37 % chance Arthur has a ~ 3.98 % chance Bomber has a ~ 10.42 % chance Check has a ~ 3.74 % chance 20.51 WCS AM Chances Score for Group C
Group D - TaeJa has a ~ 11.78 % chance TooDming has a ~ 1.63 % chance Polt has a ~ 13.98 % chance MajOr has a ~ 3.22 % chance 30.61 WCS AM Chances Score for Group D
Which means the groups go in this order according to the WCS AM Chances Scores B > D > C > A
Group A - viOLet went up by ~ 0.74 %, from ~ 11.27 % up to ~ 12.01 % NesTea went up by ~ 0.11 %, from ~ 2.53 % up to ~ 2.64 % XiGua went down by ~ 0.04 %, from ~ 1.77 % down to ~ 1.73 % Heart went up by ~ 1.44 %, from ~ 8.2 % up to ~ 9.64 % All these chances added up gives a 26.02 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.25 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group A.
Group B - Alicia went down by ~ 0.71 %, from ~ 16.17 % down to ~ 15.46 % Revival went down by ~ 0.48 %, from ~ 11.43 % down to ~ 10.95 % HyuN stayed about the same, above 99.9999%, we'll just consider him 99.99% Oz went down by ~ 1.64 %, from ~ 17.39 % down to ~ 15.75 % 142.15 Blizzcon Chances Score, and 2.83 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group B
Group C - Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.06 %, from ~ 2.96 % down to ~ 2.9 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.09 %, from ~ 9.72 % down to ~ 9.63 % Bomber went up by ~ 2.35 %, from ~ 39.99 % up to ~ 42.34 % Check went down by ~ 1 %, from ~ 15.46 % down to ~ 14.46 % 69.33 Blizzcon Chances Score, and -1.2 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group C
Group D - TaeJa went up by ~ 0.37 %, from ~ 62.99 % up to ~ 63.36 % TooDming went down by ~ 0.18 %, from ~ 3.16 % down to ~ 2.98 % Polt went down by ~ 0.14 %, from ~ 97.51 % down to ~ 97.37 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.91 %, from ~ 9.67 % down to ~ 8.76 % 172.47 Blizzcon Chances Score, and 0.86 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group D
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order D > B > C > A
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order B > D > C > A
So in 2/3 of our metrics we have Group B being the group of death, and it's 2nd place in the other metric, Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Alicia, Revival, HyuN, and Oz! Our 2nd place Group of Death is Group D which got 1st place in Blizzcon Chances Score, as well as a 2nd placing in our 2 other metrics.
--------UPDATE Saturday, May 31 10:05pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Premier Round of 16 set! The round of 16 groups for WCS EU Premier have been set! Time to do an overview, look at the previews, and do an analysis of the groups to determine the group of death! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3175 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 95.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 88.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 83.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #8 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 81.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 71.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #10 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 66.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 65.68 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 Liquid Snute is at ~ 50.35 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 47.24 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 40.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16Bomber is at ~ 39.83 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #17 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 36.31 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #18 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 27.84 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Jinair Maru is at ~ 26.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #20 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.74 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #21 mouz VortiX is at ~ 21.77 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #22 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #23 Acer MMA is at ~ 19.07 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #24 NrS Welmu is at ~ 18.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 15.98 %, Min WCS Points: 525
Snute went down by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 52.19 % to ~ 50.35 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 26.7 % to ~ 25.74 % Harstem went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 4.18 % to ~ 3.45 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 5.38 %
WCS EU S2 Premier - First is at ~ 11.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.59 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.85 %. ~ 37.41 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.81 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.04 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.46 %. ~ 53.96 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 5.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.63 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.72 %. ~ 47.37 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 1.84 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.73 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.18 %. ~ 61.27 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.36 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MC is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.45 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 39.55 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 5.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.61 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.66 %. ~ 51.39 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 18.1 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.86 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.35 %. ~ 51.14 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.35 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 4.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.08 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.83 %. ~ 57.92 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.03 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 25.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.8 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.49 %. ~ 44.2 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 21.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.37 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.57 %. ~ 41.63 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 50.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.23 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 66.33 %. ~ 45.77 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 3.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.6 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.17 %. ~ 68.4 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.8 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - Nerchio is at ~ 5.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.37 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.63 %. ~ 64.63 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.26 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 27.74 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.52 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 1.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.74 % of the time LiveZerg wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.27 %. ~ 68.26 % of the time LiveZerg loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 71.47 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.62 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 84.52 %. ~ 39.38 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 51.37 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 18.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.87 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 10.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 71.47 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 10.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.74 % to ~ 99.99 % MC has a ~ 9.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % VortiX has a ~ 9.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 21.77 % to ~ 99.96 % Snute has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 50.35 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 8.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.85 % to ~ 85.68 % YoDa has a ~ 3.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.78 % to ~ 86.25 % Welmu has a ~ 3.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.1 % to ~ 99.99 % Golden has a ~ 3.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.62 % to ~ 89.88 % ToD has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.31 % to ~ 94.67 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.38 % to ~ 98.51 % MaNa has a ~ 2.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.54 % to ~ 94.62 % Harstem has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.45 % to ~ 87.24 % LiveZerg has a ~ 1.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.55 % to ~ 85.17 % Grubby has a ~ 1.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 93.59 %
Now let's look at some stats to figure out the group of death. We will look at 3 different scores the same way we did the GSL ro16 analysis. WCS EU Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Group A - Grubby has a ~ 1.18 % chance to win WCS EU Season 2. First has a ~ 8.81 % chance Golden has a ~ 3.69 % chance Mana has a ~ 2.27 % chance All these chances added up gives a 15.95 WCS EU Chances Score for Group A
Group B - Welmu has a ~ 3.73 % chance MC has a ~ 9.8 % chance ToD has a ~ 2.47 % chance YoDa has a ~ 3.82 % chance All these chances added up gives a 19.82 WCS EU Chances Score for Group B
Group C - Harstem has a ~ 2.26 % chance Snute has a ~ 9.16 % chance ForGG has a ~ 10.01 % chance VortiX has a ~ 9.57 % chance All these chances added up gives a 31 WCS EU Chances Score for Group C
Group D - LiveZerg has a ~ 1.19 % chance San has a ~ 18.73 % chance Nerchio has a ~ 2.45 % chance StarDust has a ~ 10.87 % chance All these chances added up gives a 33.24 WCS EU Chances Score for Group D
Which means the groups go in this order according to the WCS EU Chances Scores D > C > B > A
Group A - Grubby went up by ~ 0.13 %, from ~ 1.71 % up to ~ 1.84 % First went up by ~ 0.97 %, from ~ 10.88 % up to ~ 11.85 % Golden went up by ~ 0.41 %, from ~ 5.21 % up to ~ 5.62 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.37 %, from ~ 4.17 % up to ~ 4.54 % All these chances added up gives a 23.85 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -1.88 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group A.
Group B - Welmu went up by ~ 0.49 %, from ~ 17.61 % up to ~ 18.1 % MC stayed about the same, over 99.9999%, I'll count him as ~ 99.99 % ToD went down by about ~ 0.07 %, from ~ 4.38 % down to ~ 4.31 % YoDa went up by about ~ 0.12 %, from ~ 5.66 % up to ~ 5.78 % All these chances added up gives a 128.18 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -0.54 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group B.
Group C - Harstem went down by ~ 0.73 %, from ~ 4.18 % down to ~ 3.45 % Snute went down by ~ 1.84 %, from ~ 52.19 % down to ~ 50.35 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.96 %, from ~ 26.7 % down to ~ 25.74 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.18 %, from ~ 21.95 % down to ~ 21.77 % All these chances added up gives a 101.31 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 3.71 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group C.
Group D - LiveZerg went down by ~ 0.15 %, from ~ 1.7 % down to ~ 1.55 % San went up by ~ 0.04 %, from ~ 99.83 % up to ~ 99.87 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.67 %, from ~ 6.05 % down to ~ 5.38 % StarDust went up by ~ 0.57 %, from ~ 70.9 % up to ~ 71.47 % All these chances added up gives a 178.27 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 0.21 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group D.
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order D > B > C > A
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order C > D > B > A
So in 2/3 of our metrics we have Group D being the group of death, and it's 2nd place in the other metric, Group D is our Group of Death! Congrats to LiveZerg, San, Nerchio, and StarDust! Our 2nd place Group of Death is Group C which got huge 1st place in Blizzcon Chances Lost Score, as well as a 2nd and a 3rd placing in our metrics.
Also check out the new up and down arrows next to players' chances on the lists, the top of the page says when it is comparing to, which is the same comparison that Biggest Winners and Biggest Losers use. Mouse over the arrows to see the difference. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, May 30 10:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00) HomeStory Cup 9 and Dreamhack Summer player lists set! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #2MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3175 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.82 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.62 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 95.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 87.4 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 83.52 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #8 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 80.44 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 70.51 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #10 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 66.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 65.06 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 Liquid Snute is at ~ 51.73 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 47.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.24 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 40.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16Bomber is at ~ 39.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #17 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 36.15 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #18 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 27.63 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 26.31 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #20 Jinair Maru is at ~ 26.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #21 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.16 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #22 Acer MMA is at ~ 18.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #23 Wayi Check is at ~ 17.72 %, Min WCS Points: 525 #24 NrS Welmu is at ~ 17.7 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #25 Ai Patience is at ~ 17.43 %, Min WCS Points: 750
I added the player list for HomeStory Cup 9 yesterday but wasn't able to post about it. Here are the biggest winners and losers from the HomeStory Cup 9 player list. Remember that this is slightly old info and their chances are not the same anymore, so just check out how their chances changed. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
jjakji went up by ~ 12.5 %, going from ~ 63.43 % to ~ 75.93 % Jaedong went up by ~ 8.99 %, going from ~ 28.98 % to ~ 37.97 % Snute went up by ~ 8.99 %, going from ~ 35.05 % to ~ 44.04 % TaeJa went up by ~ 7.98 %, going from ~ 51.95 % to ~ 59.94 % Bomber went up by ~ 6.39 %, going from ~ 35.75 % to ~ 42.13 % ForGG went up by ~ 4.14 %, going from ~ 25.13 % to ~ 29.27 % Patience went up by ~ 3.3 %, going from ~ 15.38 % to ~ 18.68 % Welmu went up by ~ 2.72 %, going from ~ 12.38 % to ~ 15.1 % LiveZerg went up by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 0.42 % to ~ 1.3 % YoDa went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 4.74 % to ~ 5.51 % Stork went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 5.22 % to ~ 5.8 % ToD went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 4.03 % to ~ 4.55 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 1.97 % to ~ 2.48 %
MMA went down by ~ 13.03 %, going from ~ 36.66 % to ~ 23.63 % sOs went down by ~ 5.01 %, going from ~ 75.66 % to ~ 70.65 % herO went down by ~ 3.43 %, going from ~ 87.95 % to ~ 84.52 % soO went down by ~ 3.32 %, going from ~ 46.46 % to ~ 43.14 % StarDust went down by ~ 3.3 %, going from ~ 65.84 % to ~ 62.53 % Rain went down by ~ 2.77 %, going from ~ 45.67 % to ~ 42.9 % Polt went down by ~ 1.91 %, going from ~ 91.7 % to ~ 89.79 % Oz went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 19.2 % to ~ 17.44 % Check went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 21.5 % to ~ 19.74 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.74 %, going from ~ 37.01 % to ~ 35.26 % Classic went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 31.71 % to ~ 30.09 % Alicia went down by ~ 1.45 %, going from ~ 13.36 % to ~ 11.9 % PartinG went down by ~ 1.41 %, going from ~ 16.3 % to ~ 14.89 % Maru went down by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 17.76 % to ~ 16.42 % Sen went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 11.56 % to ~ 10.37 % Revival went down by ~ 1.17 %, going from ~ 14.21 % to ~ 13.04 % Dear went down by ~ 1.12 %, going from ~ 5.69 % to ~ 4.57 % Life went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 97.54 % to ~ 96.55 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 17.05 % to ~ 16.23 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 17.41 % to ~ 16.6 % HerO went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 6.42 % to ~ 5.66 % Solar went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 15.38 % to ~ 14.65 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 10.77 % to ~ 10.19 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 0.91 % to ~ 0.32 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 8.49 % to ~ 7.97 %
Here are the biggest winners and losers with the addition of the Dreamhack Summer player list. These numbers are current. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Jaedong went up by ~ 9.03 %, going from ~ 38.01 % to ~ 47.05 % StarDust went up by ~ 7.99 %, going from ~ 62.52 % to ~ 70.51 % Snute went up by ~ 7.52 %, going from ~ 44.21 % to ~ 51.73 % jjakji went up by ~ 7.49 %, going from ~ 76.03 % to ~ 83.52 % TaeJa went up by ~ 6.31 %, going from ~ 59.86 % to ~ 66.17 % Dear went up by ~ 2.94 %, going from ~ 4.58 % to ~ 7.52 % Oz went up by ~ 2.79 %, going from ~ 17.37 % to ~ 20.16 % Welmu went up by ~ 2.73 %, going from ~ 14.98 % to ~ 17.7 % HerO went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 5.62 % to ~ 7.18 % INnoVation went up by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 34.99 % to ~ 36.15 % TRUE went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 3.41 % to ~ 4.18 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.61 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 3.12 %
sOs went down by ~ 5.71 %, going from ~ 70.77 % to ~ 65.06 % herO went down by ~ 4.21 %, going from ~ 84.65 % to ~ 80.44 % soO went down by ~ 3.72 %, going from ~ 43.9 % to ~ 40.18 % MMA went down by ~ 3.06 %, going from ~ 21.77 % to ~ 18.71 % Rain went down by ~ 2.84 %, going from ~ 43.08 % to ~ 40.24 % Bomber went down by ~ 2.45 %, going from ~ 42.01 % to ~ 39.55 % Polt went down by ~ 2.37 %, going from ~ 89.77 % to ~ 87.4 % Classic went down by ~ 2.04 %, going from ~ 29.67 % to ~ 27.63 % Check went down by ~ 1.96 %, going from ~ 19.68 % to ~ 17.72 % Soulkey went down by ~ 1.44 %, going from ~ 16.49 % to ~ 15.05 % PartinG went down by ~ 1.41 %, going from ~ 14.94 % to ~ 13.53 % Life went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 96.58 % to ~ 95.19 % Patience went down by ~ 1.28 %, going from ~ 18.71 % to ~ 17.43 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 27.54 % to ~ 26.31 % Sen went down by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 10.35 % to ~ 9.19 % Revival went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 12.93 % to ~ 11.89 % Solar went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 14.81 % to ~ 13.82 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 11.82 % to ~ 10.86 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.86 %, going from ~ 16.74 % to ~ 15.88 % First went down by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 11.9 % to ~ 11.08 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 10.07 % to ~ 9.52 % Zest went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.15 % to ~ 98.62 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 6.38 % to ~ 5.87 %
HomeStory Cup 9 jjakji has a ~ 11.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 83.52 % to ~ 99.98 % MMA has a ~ 10.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.71 % to ~ 46.08 % MC has a ~ 9.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 8.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 51.73 % to ~ 85.54 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 47.05 % to ~ 90.29 % TaeJa has a ~ 7.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 66.17 % to ~ 95.41 % Patience has a ~ 6.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 35.7 % Bomber has a ~ 6.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 39.55 % to ~ 73.19 % Scarlett has a ~ 3.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 0.57 % Stork has a ~ 2.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.74 % to ~ 2.49 % Welmu has a ~ 2.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.7 % to ~ 52.82 % Bunny has a ~ 2.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 14.41 % YoDa has a ~ 2.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.1 % to ~ 11.22 % HasuObs has a ~ 2.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.25 % Harstem has a ~ 1.96 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.45 % to ~ 10.34 % Stephano has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.47 % to ~ 1.76 % ToD has a ~ 1.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.26 % to ~ 11.03 % MaNa has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.07 % to ~ 12.07 % TLO has a ~ 1.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 8.96 % Armani has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.23 % BlinG has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 1.38 % TargA has a ~ 1.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.09 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 2.27 % Grubby has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.68 % to ~ 2.45 % Socke has a ~ 0.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % NightEnD has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.04 %
DreamHack Summer HyuN has a ~ 12.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 10.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 83.52 % to ~ 99.94 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 47.05 % to ~ 85.27 % Snute has a ~ 7.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 51.73 % to ~ 82.13 % StarDust has a ~ 7.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 70.51 % to ~ 98.63 % TaeJa has a ~ 7.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 66.17 % to ~ 93.02 % Dear has a ~ 6.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.52 % to ~ 29.36 % PiG has a ~ 4.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.24 % HerO has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 27.16 % Bunny has a ~ 3.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 12.2 % Welmu has a ~ 3.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.7 % to ~ 47.34 % Oz has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.16 % to ~ 58.2 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 2.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.12 % HuK has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.11 % to ~ 2.73 % MaNa has a ~ 2.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.07 % to ~ 10.56 % TLO has a ~ 2.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 7.15 % Tefel has a ~ 1.93 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.48 % to ~ 3.62 % uThermal has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 0.8 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 1.79 % Serral has a ~ 1.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.04 % ThorZaIN has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Zanster has a ~ 1.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % Socke has a ~ 0.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % MorroW has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Balloon has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % SortOf has a ~ 0.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % DeMusliM has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.14 % GoOdy has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % herO has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 80.44 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.71 % to ~ 61.04 % KingKong has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 2.12 % Mvp has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 6.55 % Arthur has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.63 % to ~ 21.65 % YoDa has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.1 % to ~ 11.6 % Heart has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.85 % to ~ 21.86 % Revival has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.89 % to ~ 33.59 % ToD has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.26 % to ~ 9.63 % Sen has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.19 % to ~ 44.26 % Panic has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.98 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.66 % to ~ 7.79 %
Also here's a tip if you want to see what your favorite player needs to do at the next tournament. Just go on their page, go down to the events section, and use the search box to type in the name of the tournament. The events list will instantly be filtered down to just events that have to do with that tournament! Here's an example screenshot of Jaedong for HomeStory Cup + Show Spoiler +
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--------UPDATE Saturday, May 24 4:40am GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and GSL Code S Round of 16! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.94 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 97.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 97.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #7 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 92.41 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #8 Jinair sOs is at ~ 77.32 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 64.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 59.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 EG Jaedong is at ~ 51.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #12 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 44.61 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #13 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 41.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14Bomber is at ~ 37.6 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #15 Acer MMA is at ~ 37.59 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #16 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 37.49 %, Min WCS Points: 950 #17 Liquid Snute is at ~ 36.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #18 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 34.87 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.55 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #20 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 22.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #21 Jinair Maru is at ~ 17.9 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.47 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 Ai Patience is at ~ 17.28 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #24 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 16.76 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #25 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 15.76 %, Min WCS Points: 800
First let's look at the biggest winners and losers from adding the KeSPA Cup (after the Code S Ro32 was completed but before the Ro16 groups were set). + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
PartinG went up by ~ 5.9 %, going from ~ 31.93 % to ~ 37.83 % Maru went up by ~ 4.14 %, going from ~ 12.75 % to ~ 16.89 % INnoVation went up by ~ 3.92 %, going from ~ 29.47 % to ~ 33.39 % Soulkey went up by ~ 3.53 %, going from ~ 11.78 % to ~ 15.3 % Solar went up by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 13.7 % to ~ 15.51 % First went up by ~ 1.64 %, going from ~ 6.6 % to ~ 8.24 % Classic went up by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 15.92 % to ~ 17.46 % YoDa went up by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 5.01 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 24.28 % to ~ 25.5 % VortiX went up by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 16.24 % to ~ 17.43 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 3.63 % to ~ 4.79 % Patience went up by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 16.13 % to ~ 17.21 % Snute went up by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 35.85 % to ~ 36.89 % Nerchio went up by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 6.3 % to ~ 7.23 % Stork went up by ~ 0.9 %, going from ~ 3.02 % to ~ 3.91 % Dark went up by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 4.62 % Harstem went up by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 4.24 % Bbyong went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 2.65 % ToD went up by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 3.53 % to ~ 4.3 % Arthur went up by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 8.48 % to ~ 9.21 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 3.1 % to ~ 3.82 % NesTea went up by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 3.63 % Revival went up by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 14.42 % to ~ 15.1 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 6.43 % to ~ 7.1 % Top went up by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 4.39 % to ~ 4.98 %
sOs went down by ~ 7.91 %, going from ~ 84.96 % to ~ 77.05 % jjakji went down by ~ 6.89 %, going from ~ 71.27 % to ~ 64.39 % StarDust went down by ~ 4.54 %, going from ~ 63.58 % to ~ 59.04 % Jaedong went down by ~ 3.88 %, going from ~ 55.7 % to ~ 51.82 % Polt went down by ~ 3.13 %, going from ~ 95.46 % to ~ 92.33 % Bomber went down by ~ 2.88 %, going from ~ 40.39 % to ~ 37.51 % soO went down by ~ 1.99 %, going from ~ 27.71 % to ~ 25.72 % Rain went down by ~ 1.9 %, going from ~ 48.12 % to ~ 46.22 % Life went down by ~ 1.63 %, going from ~ 99.17 % to ~ 97.54 % herO went down by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 98.4 % to ~ 97.17 % HerO went down by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.04 % TaeJa went down by ~ 0.86 %, going from ~ 42.08 % to ~ 41.22 % MMA went down by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 38.38 % to ~ 37.53 % Sen went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 12.5 % Dear went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 6.65 % to ~ 5.93 % Happy went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 6.16 % to ~ 5.44 % Squirtle went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 1.6 % to ~ 0.96 %
As is normal when adding a new big tournament, the players who have high Aligulac ratings relative to their chances get big boosts to their chances, while players with low Aligulac ratings relative to their chances take some losses.
For the KeSPA Cup's seeds for top 2 in Proleague, I just have it pick 2 from the current top 10 at random, and it does a random selection for the open qualifiers.
KeSPA Cup herO has a ~ 7.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.17 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 6.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.83 % to ~ 98.8 % San has a ~ 5.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.94 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 5.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.59 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 4.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 3.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.39 % to ~ 99.53 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.3 % to ~ 77.38 % Rain has a ~ 3.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 46.22 % to ~ 99.99 % Maru has a ~ 2.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.89 % to ~ 93.52 % Polt has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.33 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.53 % to ~ 99.96 % Life has a ~ 2.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.54 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 2.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.5 % to ~ 98.29 % Snute has a ~ 2.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 36.89 % to ~ 99.99 % Bomber has a ~ 2.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.51 % to ~ 99.97 % StarDust has a ~ 2.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 59.04 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 1.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 51.82 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.51 % to ~ 93.75 % TaeJa has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.22 % to ~ 99.99 % MC has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.46 % to ~ 97.51 % VortiX has a ~ 1.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 95.02 % Bbyong has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.65 % to ~ 47.27 % Flash has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 9.68 % ByuL has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 21.33 % Patience has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.21 % to ~ 96.61 % RorO has a ~ 1.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 15.06 % TY has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 7.48 % First has a ~ 0.97 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 82.31 % sOs has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 77.05 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.72 % to ~ 99.99 % jjakji has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 64.39 % to ~ 100 % Welmu has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.15 % to ~ 99.49 % Nerchio has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.23 % to ~ 90.97 % Dark has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 81.33 % Revival has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.1 % to ~ 99.65 % viOLet has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.1 % to ~ 83.18 % YoDa has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.01 % to ~ 81.6 % Stork has a ~ 0.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.91 % to ~ 77.84 % KingKong has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 12.45 % Arthur has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.21 % to ~ 92.72 % Alicia has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.07 % to ~ 99.28 % Happy has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.44 % to ~ 79.85 % Check has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.96 % to ~ 97.19 % NaNiwa has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 8.68 % Dear has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.93 % to ~ 99.91 % Jim has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.1 % to ~ 70.34 % Mvp has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 42.41 % Top has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 77.07 % Sage has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 8.68 % Harstem has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.24 % to ~ 81.23 %
INnoVation went up by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 33.39 % to ~ 34.87 % Soulkey went up by ~ 1.46 %, going from ~ 15.3 % to ~ 16.76 % Maru went up by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 16.89 % to ~ 17.9 % Stork went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 3.91 % to ~ 4.72 % Dark went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 5.34 %
soO went down by ~ 3.5 %, going from ~ 25.72 % to ~ 22.22 % Classic went down by ~ 1.7 %, going from ~ 17.46 % to ~ 15.76 % Rain went down by ~ 1.61 %, going from ~ 46.22 % to ~ 44.61 % Solar went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 15.51 % to ~ 14.97 %
GSL S2 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 37.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.45 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 51.52 %. ~ 40.55 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 22.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.33 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.48 %. ~ 64.67 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 15.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.04 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.66 %. ~ 56.96 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 97.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.17 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.9 %. ~ 37.83 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 92.25 %.
GSL S2 Code S Life has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Life is at ~ 97.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.38 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.94 %. ~ 39.62 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 94.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rain is at ~ 44.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.35 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 62.05 %. ~ 43.65 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 22.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 2.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.44 % of the time ParalyzE wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.91 %. ~ 68.56 % of the time ParalyzE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 14.97 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.82 % of the time Solar wins and their chances go up to ~ 24.95 %. ~ 48.18 % of the time Solar loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.22 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Maru is at ~ 17.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.79 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.51 %. ~ 48.21 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dark is at ~ 5.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.24 % of the time Dark wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.21 %. ~ 46.76 % of the time Dark loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 4.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.04 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.63 %. ~ 41.96 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 1.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.93 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.92 %. ~ 63.07 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Soulkey is at ~ 16.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.09 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.83 %. ~ 42.91 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 34.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 63.84 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 47.61 %. ~ 36.16 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.5 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.37 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 51.63 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 1.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.7 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.26 %. ~ 69.3 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.2 %.
GSL S2 Code S herO has a ~ 13.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.01 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 12.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 34.87 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 11.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.49 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 9.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.5 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 9.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 44.61 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 8.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.76 % to ~ 100 % Soulkey has a ~ 7.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.76 % to ~ 98.8 % Solar has a ~ 6.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.97 % to ~ 99.62 % Classic has a ~ 5.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.76 % to ~ 99.99 % Maru has a ~ 4.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.9 % to ~ 99.99 % soO has a ~ 2.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.22 % to ~ 100 % Dark has a ~ 2.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.34 % to ~ 96.78 % Stork has a ~ 2.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.72 % to ~ 92.07 % ParalyzE has a ~ 1.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.15 % to ~ 95.97 % Shine has a ~ 0.97 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.44 % to ~ 88.85 % TRUE has a ~ 0.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 94.6 %
Now let's try to figure out which is the group of death according to the stats!
Group A - Parting has a ~ 11.03 % chance to win Code S Classic has a ~ 5.15 % chance herO has a ~ 13.72 % chance soO has a ~ 2.88 % chance All these chances added up gives a 32.78 Code S Chances Score
Group B - Rain has a ~ 9.32 % chance Solar has a ~ 6.6 % chance Life has a ~ 8.83 % chance ParalyzE has a ~ 1.15 % chance All these chances added up gives a 25.9 Code S Chances Score
Group C - Maru has a ~ 4.71 % chance Dark has a ~ 2.77 % chance TRUE has a ~ 0.7 % chance Stork has a ~ 2.75 % chance All these chances added up gives a 10.93 Code S Chances Score
Group D - Soulkey has a ~ 7.42 % chance Shine has a ~ 0.97 % chance Zest has a ~ 9.32 % chance Innovation has a ~ 12.7 % chance All these chances added up gives a 30.41 Code S Chances Score
Which means the groups go in this order according to the Code S Chances Scores A > D > B > C
Group A - Parting went down by ~ 0.34 %, from ~ 37.83 % down to ~ 37.49 % Classic went down by ~ 1.7 %, from ~ 17.46 % down to ~ 15.76 % herO went down by ~ 0.16 %, from ~ 97.17 % down to ~ 97.01 % soO went down by ~ 3.5 %, from ~ 25.72 % down to ~ 22.22 % All these chances added up gives a 172.48 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 5.7 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group B - Rain went down by ~ 1.61 %, from ~ 46.22 % down to ~ 44.61 % Solar went down by ~ 0.55 %, from ~ 15.51 % down to ~ 14.96 % Life went up by ~ 0.22 %, from ~ 97.54 % down to ~ 97.76 % ParalyzE went down by ~ 0.21 %, from ~ 2.36 % down to ~ 2.15 % All these chances added up gives a 159.48 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 2.15 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group C - Maru went up by ~ 1.01 %, from ~ 16.89 % up to ~ 17.9 % Dark went up by ~ 0.72 %, from ~ 4.62 % up to ~ 5.34 % TRUE went up by ~ 0.12 %, from ~ 1.07 % up to ~ 1.19 % Stork went up by ~ 0.81 %, from ~ 3.91 % up to ~ 4.72 % All these chances added up gives a 29.15 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.66 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group D - Soulkey went up by ~ 1.46 %, from ~ 15.3 % up to ~ 16.76 % Shine stayed about the same at ~ 1.44 % Zest went down by ~ 0.09 %, from ~ 99.59 % down to ~ 99.5 % Innovation went up by ~ 1.48 %, from ~ 33.39 % up to ~ 34.87 % All these chances added up gives a 152.57 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.85 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order A > D > B > C
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order A > B > C > D
So in all 3 of the metrics we have Group A being the group of death! Congrats to Parting, Classic, herO, and soO! 2nd place goes to Group D, 3rd place to Group B, and 4th place goes to Group C.
-----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, May 13 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EM and AM Premier Previews! Here is the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25] +
#1MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 KT Zest is at ~ 99.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 99.83 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 98.91 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 95.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 93.77 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #8 Jinair sOs is at ~ 92.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 90.69 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 62.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 EG Jaedong is at ~ 57.21 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #12 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 48.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #13 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 41.95 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14 Acer MMA is at ~ 38.08 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #15Bomber is at ~ 31.67 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #16 Liquid Snute is at ~ 27.9 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #17 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 27.24 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 26.53 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #19 Liquid HerO is at ~ 23.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #20 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.23 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #21 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 20.04 %, Min WCS Points: 825 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.86 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 Ai Patience is at ~ 17.35 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #24 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 15.69 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 14.23 %, Min WCS Points: 375
San moved down below Zest due to him forfeiting his spot in TeSL 4.
WCS EU S2 Premier - Stephano is at ~ 1.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.64 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.91 %. ~ 54.36 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Nerchio is at ~ 5.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.36 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.28 %. ~ 37.64 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.11 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.93 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.29 %. ~ 68.07 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 9.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.08 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.82 %. ~ 39.92 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.23 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MaNa is at ~ 1.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.02 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.38 %. ~ 53.98 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 27.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 77.54 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 32.99 %. ~ 22.46 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 1.6 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.47 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.95 %. ~ 55.53 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Krr is at ~ 0.25 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.97 % of the time Krr wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.63 %. ~ 68.03 % of the time Krr loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.07 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - jjakji is at ~ 90.69 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 73.8 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 96.18 %. ~ 26.2 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 75.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 1.29 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.21 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.32 %. ~ 51.79 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.34 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 1.09 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.28 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.59 %. ~ 67.72 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 4.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.71 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.21 %. ~ 54.29 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.81 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - Mvp is at ~ 12.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.93 % of the time Mvp wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.72 %. ~ 38.07 % of the time Mvp loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.16 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 30.84 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 1.25 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.84 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.67 %. ~ 64.16 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.46 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 33.07 % of the time uThermal wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.58 %. ~ 66.93 % of the time uThermal loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.22 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - First is at ~ 5.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.42 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.38 %. ~ 34.58 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BabyKnight is at ~ 0.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.91 % of the time BabyKnight wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.13 %. ~ 64.09 % of the time BabyKnight loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.36 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 62.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 74.23 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.66 %. ~ 25.77 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 36.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 24.45 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 75.55 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MC is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.01 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 29.99 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 1.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.94 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.47 %. ~ 60.06 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Happy is at ~ 5.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.2 % of the time Happy wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.93 %. ~ 52.8 % of the time Happy loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 2.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.86 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.86 %. ~ 57.14 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.93 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MMA is at ~ 38.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.57 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 46.06 %. ~ 27.43 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.94 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ForGG is at ~ 26.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 75.62 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.64 %. ~ 24.38 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 24.69 % of the time LiveZerg wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.3 %. ~ 75.31 % of the time LiveZerg loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 0.89 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 27.13 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.26 %. ~ 72.87 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.38 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - VortiX is at ~ 17.86 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.87 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.59 %. ~ 35.13 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 0.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.92 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.26 %. ~ 67.08 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Tefel is at ~ 0.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.65 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.64 %. ~ 62.35 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 17.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.56 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.11 %. ~ 35.44 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.86 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 10.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.83 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 9.84 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 90.69 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 9.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 26.53 % to ~ 99.96 % MMA has a ~ 8.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 38.08 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 7.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 62.54 % to ~ 100 % MC has a ~ 6.93 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % VortiX has a ~ 6.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.86 % to ~ 99.71 % Snute has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 27.9 % to ~ 99.99 % Patience has a ~ 5.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.35 % to ~ 99.93 % Mvp has a ~ 5.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.2 % to ~ 95.76 % First has a ~ 3.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.28 % to ~ 65.82 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.92 % to ~ 94.11 % Welmu has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.59 % to ~ 99.99 % Happy has a ~ 2.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.35 % to ~ 96.4 % Bunny has a ~ 1.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.74 % to ~ 99.73 % MaNa has a ~ 1.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.87 % to ~ 73.13 % YoDa has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.29 % to ~ 56.49 % Golden has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.74 % to ~ 71.21 % Stephano has a ~ 1.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.59 % to ~ 70.44 % BlinG has a ~ 0.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.6 % to ~ 81.24 % TLO has a ~ 0.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.61 % to ~ 99.81 % Harstem has a ~ 0.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.09 % to ~ 61.99 % ToD has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.25 % to ~ 78.91 % Tefel has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.76 % to ~ 60.56 % uThermal has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.67 % to ~ 58.88 % BabyKnight has a ~ 0.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 91.13 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.89 % to ~ 91.8 % Grubby has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 78.45 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 65.87 % Krr has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.25 % to ~ 45.25 % DeMusliM has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 42.02 % FireCake has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 38.59 %
WCS AM S2 Premier - HerO is at ~ 23.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.03 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.26 %. ~ 44.97 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 9.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.79 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.47 %. ~ 47.21 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 4.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.24 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.43 %. ~ 53.76 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 1.7 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time Pigbaby wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.19 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time Pigbaby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.43 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 31.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.75 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 38.8 %. ~ 27.25 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 0.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.15 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.93 %. ~ 64.85 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - CranK is at ~ 3.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.27 % of the time CranK wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.44 %. ~ 52.73 % of the time CranK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaSa is at ~ 1.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.83 % of the time MaSa wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.03 %. ~ 55.17 % of the time MaSa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 6.7 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.73 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.07 %. ~ 43.27 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 14.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.79 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.39 %. ~ 39.21 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - qxc is at ~ 0.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.9 % of the time qxc wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.16 %. ~ 67.1 % of the time qxc loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 3.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.59 % of the time puCK wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.84 %. ~ 50.41 % of the time puCK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.23 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 41.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.21 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 53.5 %. ~ 34.79 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Top is at ~ 4.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.27 % of the time Top wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.32 %. ~ 47.73 % of the time Top loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 14.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.41 % of the time Check wins and their chances go up to ~ 21.79 %. ~ 46.59 % of the time Check loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.1 % of the time neeb wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.96 %. ~ 70.9 % of the time neeb loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.58 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 37.42 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 3.43 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.92 % of the time Heart wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.74 %. ~ 62.08 % of the time Heart loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 57.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.71 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.59 %. ~ 39.29 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 35.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 3.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.79 % of the time Jim wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.35 %. ~ 61.21 % of the time Jim loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Alicia is at ~ 14.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.95 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.01 %. ~ 39.05 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 1.73 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.66 % of the time TooDming wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.11 %. ~ 54.34 % of the time TooDming loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.69 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.58 %. ~ 56.31 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.25 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 1.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.71 % of the time hendralisk wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.49 %. ~ 50.29 % of the time hendralisk loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.34 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Polt is at ~ 95.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 78.29 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.34 %. ~ 21.71 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 1.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.15 % of the time MacSed wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.33 %. ~ 53.85 % of the time MacSed loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 4.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.25 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.01 %. ~ 43.75 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Courage is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.3 % of the time Courage wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 80.7 % of the time Courage loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Sen is at ~ 13.91 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.54 % of the time Sen wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.88 %. ~ 44.46 % of the time Sen loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.2 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Suppy is at ~ 0.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.89 % of the time Suppy wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.65 %. ~ 60.11 % of the time Suppy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.42 % of the time XiGua wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.24 %. ~ 59.58 % of the time XiGua loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 8.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.15 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.79 %. ~ 35.85 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.92 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 12.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 95.24 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 11.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 9.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 57.21 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 31.67 % to ~ 99.99 % TaeJa has a ~ 8.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.95 % to ~ 100 % HerO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.2 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 3.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.7 % to ~ 86.64 % Alicia has a ~ 3.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.03 % to ~ 100 % Arthur has a ~ 3.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.61 % to ~ 99.45 % Check has a ~ 3.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.23 % to ~ 99.5 % Top has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.44 % to ~ 74.61 % Revival has a ~ 2.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.83 % to ~ 99.99 % Oz has a ~ 2.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.21 % to ~ 100 % Sen has a ~ 2.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.91 % to ~ 99.96 % MajOr has a ~ 2.08 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 97.6 % Jim has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.08 % to ~ 67.48 % HuK has a ~ 2.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.31 % to ~ 93.18 % CranK has a ~ 1.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 92.8 % Heart has a ~ 1.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.43 % to ~ 93.38 % puCK has a ~ 1.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.52 % to ~ 98.1 % Pigbaby has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.7 % to ~ 56.1 % hendralisk has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.41 % to ~ 54.28 % MaSa has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.62 % to ~ 68.46 % MacSed has a ~ 1.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 81.36 % TooDming has a ~ 0.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.73 % to ~ 91.41 % Suppy has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.79 % to ~ 57.24 % XiGua has a ~ 0.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 80.34 % Illusion has a ~ 0.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 71.58 % NesTea has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 72.35 % qxc has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.49 % to ~ 75.07 % neeb has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 89.87 % Courage has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 28.14 %
GSL S2 Code S - DongRaeGu is at ~ 3.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.25 % of the time DongRaeGu wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.68 %. ~ 39.75 % of the time DongRaeGu loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 7.69 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.74 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.05 %. ~ 41.26 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 0.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.07 % of the time ParalyzE wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.82 %. ~ 56.93 % of the time ParalyzE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.94 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.99 %. ~ 62.06 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %.
GSL S2 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 22.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.21 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.76 %. ~ 40.79 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SuperNova is at ~ 1.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.01 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.41 %. ~ 63.99 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.44 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 2.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.2 % of the time ByuL wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.24 %. ~ 54.8 % of the time ByuL loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 11.17 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.58 % of the time Solar wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.79 %. ~ 40.42 % of the time Solar loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.36 %.
GSL S2 Code S sOs has the #1 headband! - YongHwa is at ~ 3.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.8 % of the time YongHwa wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.54 %. ~ 52.2 % of the time YongHwa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 6.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.61 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.14 %. ~ 46.39 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 92.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.55 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 96.99 %. ~ 29.45 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 82.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.04 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.84 %. ~ 71.96 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.11 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Leenock is at ~ 3.17 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.1 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.99 %. ~ 60.9 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.36 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 4.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.43 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.36 %. ~ 54.57 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 20.04 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.87 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.85 %. ~ 45.13 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 93.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.6 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.19 %. ~ 39.4 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 86.96 %.
GSL S2 Code S Zest has a ~ 11.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.84 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 10.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 48.74 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 10.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.76 % to ~ 100 % herO has a ~ 9.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 93.77 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 9.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.91 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 6.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.23 % to ~ 99.99 % Classic has a ~ 6.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.69 % to ~ 99.78 % INnoVation has a ~ 6.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.04 % to ~ 99.99 % Solar has a ~ 4.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.17 % to ~ 94.15 % soO has a ~ 3.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 27.24 % to ~ 100 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.55 % to ~ 87.46 % Dark has a ~ 2.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.55 % to ~ 78.31 % Maru has a ~ 2.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.69 % to ~ 99.88 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 2.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.92 % to ~ 83.02 % Squirtle has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.23 % to ~ 92.07 % YongHwa has a ~ 1.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 74.73 % Stork has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.94 % to ~ 61.29 % ByuL has a ~ 1.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.95 % to ~ 79.92 % Leenock has a ~ 1.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.17 % to ~ 92.15 % TRUE has a ~ 0.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.79 % to ~ 70.79 % SuperNova has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.15 % to ~ 70.82 % ParalyzE has a ~ 0.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 73.8 % MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.46 % to ~ 63.7 % Shine has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 55.8 %
And I fixed a slight inconsistency in the rounding functions where the javascript was rounding up to 100% when the backend would never round up to 100% if it wasn't exactly 100% (out of the samples in the simulation). Remember, you can mouse over the %s on the website to see more accuracy.
Also, Protoss is still below 50%! -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, May 05 5:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) Lone Star Clash 3 and TeSL Season 3 Completed! With this update, here are the biggest winners. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Jaedong went up by ~ 15.81 %, going from ~ 38.58 % to ~ 54.39 % Bomber went up by ~ 12.83 %, going from ~ 17.6 % to ~ 30.44 % Polt went up by ~ 6.99 %, going from ~ 86.73 % to ~ 93.72 % Snute went up by ~ 3.7 %, going from ~ 21.63 % to ~ 25.33 % Stephano went up by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 1.52 % HuK went up by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 4.74 %
Snute went up because his Aligulac rating went up from the ULTRA Invitational, which did not give WCS Points.
Here are the biggest losers, most of these seem to just be because of Aligulac rating increases for WCS AM players like Jaedong, Polt, Bomber, and Violet. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +
TaeJa went down by ~ 5.95 %, going from ~ 48.02 % to ~ 42.08 % HerO went down by ~ 2.44 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 26.09 % StarDust went down by ~ 2.33 %, going from ~ 62.87 % to ~ 60.54 % Patience went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 18.54 % to ~ 16.28 % MMA went down by ~ 1.83 %, going from ~ 44.06 % to ~ 42.23 % Oz went down by ~ 1.79 %, going from ~ 28.29 % to ~ 26.51 % soO went down by ~ 1.66 %, going from ~ 28.97 % to ~ 27.31 % Sen went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 8.58 % to ~ 6.96 % Has went down by ~ 1.37 %, going from ~ 3.05 % to ~ 1.68 % jjakji went down by ~ 1.35 %, going from ~ 90.36 % to ~ 89.01 % sOs went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 93.58 % to ~ 92.39 % herO went down by ~ 1.08 %, going from ~ 94.54 % to ~ 93.46 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 27.4 % to ~ 26.37 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 18.25 % to ~ 17.32 % Life went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 97.43 % to ~ 96.52 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 5.62 % to ~ 4.74 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 21.51 % to ~ 20.68 % Rain went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 39.88 % to ~ 39.1 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 14.89 % to ~ 14.11 % Dear went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 7.95 % to ~ 7.26 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 9.97 % Check went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 12.99 % to ~ 12.41 % Mvp went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 12.88 % to ~ 12.37 %
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2575 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 96.52 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 93.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 93.46 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #8 Jinair sOs is at ~ 92.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 89.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 60.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 EG Jaedong is at ~ 54.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #12 Acer MMA is at ~ 42.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 42.08 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 39.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #15Bomber is at ~ 30.44 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #16 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 27.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #17 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 26.51 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 26.37 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #19 Liquid HerO is at ~ 26.09 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #20 Liquid Snute is at ~ 25.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #21 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.78 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #22 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 20.72 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #23 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 20.68 %, Min WCS Points: 825 #24 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.32 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #25 Ai Patience is at ~ 16.28 %, Min WCS Points: 750
Also, Protoss is still below 50%! -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Apr 27 11:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Dreamhack Bucharest Completed! Previews for ALL WCS REGIONS! First let's look at the biggest changes since 4 days ago. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Life went up by ~ 38.12 %, going from ~ 59.51 % to ~ 97.63 % Jaedong went up by ~ 15.47 %, going from ~ 23.3 % to ~ 38.77 % Snute went up by ~ 5.27 %, going from ~ 16.6 % to ~ 21.88 % StarDust went up by ~ 4.95 %, going from ~ 60.81 % to ~ 65.76 % ForGG went up by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 20.69 % to ~ 24.37 % INnoVation went up by ~ 3.23 %, going from ~ 16.8 % to ~ 20.04 % Arthur went up by ~ 1.83 %, going from ~ 9.77 % to ~ 11.59 % Zest went up by ~ 1.68 %, going from ~ 97.94 % to ~ 99.62 % Bunny went up by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 3.66 % to ~ 4.89 % Has went up by ~ 1.06 %, going from ~ 2.19 % to ~ 3.25 % Tefel went up by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.95 % Happy went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 2.87 % to ~ 3.66 % soO went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 17.56 % to ~ 18.35 % Harstem went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.81 % Sen went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 5.93 % to ~ 6.72 % Leenock went up by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 4.6 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 4.19 % to ~ 4.77 %
HerO went down by ~ 10.75 %, going from ~ 39.36 % to ~ 28.61 % Oz went down by ~ 9.71 %, going from ~ 36.71 % to ~ 27.01 % NaNiwa went down by ~ 8.74 %, going from ~ 8.93 % to ~ 0.19 % MMA went down by ~ 5.25 %, going from ~ 49.34 % to ~ 44.09 % Revival went down by ~ 5.11 %, going from ~ 24.17 % to ~ 19.06 % Patience went down by ~ 4.01 %, going from ~ 18.5 % to ~ 14.49 % Maru went down by ~ 3.41 %, going from ~ 12.52 % to ~ 9.11 % TaeJa went down by ~ 2.37 %, going from ~ 48.98 % to ~ 46.6 % Polt went down by ~ 1.83 %, going from ~ 89.09 % to ~ 87.25 % Check went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 9.79 % to ~ 8.03 % Dear went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 9.97 % to ~ 8.22 % First went down by ~ 1.69 %, going from ~ 4.29 % to ~ 2.6 % Welmu went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 12.62 % to ~ 11.3 % Bomber went down by ~ 1.31 %, going from ~ 19.34 % to ~ 18.03 % Classic went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 13.38 % to ~ 12.08 % sOs went down by ~ 1.27 %, going from ~ 94.88 % to ~ 93.61 % herO went down by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 95.97 % to ~ 94.71 % Alicia went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 15.99 % to ~ 14.8 % VortiX went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 19.14 % to ~ 17.95 % MajOr went down by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 2.92 % to ~ 1.76 % KingKong went down by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 10.12 % to ~ 9.06 % Solar went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 9.66 % to ~ 8.62 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 1.82 % to ~ 0.95 % TLO went down by ~ 0.84 %, going from ~ 3.74 % to ~ 2.9 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 91.67 % to ~ 90.84 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 3.74 % to ~ 2.94 % Rain went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 41.29 % to ~ 40.52 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 4.89 % Top went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 1.99 %
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.62 %, Min WCS Points: 2450 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 97.63 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #6 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 94.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #7 Jinair sOs is at ~ 93.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 90.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #9 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 87.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1950 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 65.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 46.56 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #12 Acer MMA is at ~ 44.13 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.51 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #14 EG Jaedong is at ~ 38.76 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #15 Liquid HerO is at ~ 28.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #16 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 27.01 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 24.35 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #18 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.42 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #19 Liquid Snute is at ~ 21.9 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #20 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 20.01 %, Min WCS Points: 825 #21 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 19.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #22 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 18.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #23Bomber is at ~ 18.02 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #24 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.93 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 14.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1025
Previews for Code S Round of 32. Note that Life now takes the #2 headband into the GSL, so sOs might finally be challenged for his #1 headband! + Show Spoiler [Code S Previews] +
GSL S2 Code S - Dark is at ~ 1.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.47 % of the time Dark wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.22 %. ~ 54.53 % of the time Dark loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.56 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TAiLS is at ~ 0.3 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.73 % of the time TAiLS wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.81 %. ~ 70.27 % of the time TAiLS loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 6.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.34 % of the time Bbyong wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.4 %. ~ 44.66 % of the time Bbyong loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.46 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.91 %. ~ 30.54 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 98.96 %.
GSL S2 Code S - RagnaroK is at ~ 3.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.15 % of the time RagnaroK wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.74 %. ~ 44.85 % of the time RagnaroK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 18.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.77 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.27 %. ~ 49.23 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 4.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.31 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.06 %. ~ 37.69 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.78 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.85 %. ~ 68.22 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.11 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Rain is at ~ 40.51 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.83 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 48.97 %. ~ 28.17 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 18.95 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Symbol is at ~ 2.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.44 % of the time Symbol wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.82 %. ~ 43.56 % of the time Symbol loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.61 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.3 %. ~ 60.39 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ruin is at ~ 0.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.12 % of the time Ruin wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.39 %. ~ 67.88 % of the time Ruin loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %.
GSL S2 Code S Life has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Life is at ~ 97.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.36 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.32 %. ~ 32.64 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 94.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 12.1 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.93 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.69 %. ~ 43.07 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hydra is at ~ 3.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.82 % of the time Hydra wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.1 %. ~ 54.18 % of the time Hydra loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.89 % of the time Rogue wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.22 %. ~ 70.11 % of the time Rogue loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.36 %.
GSL S2 Code S - DongRaeGu is at ~ 4.88 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.66 % of the time DongRaeGu wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.06 %. ~ 39.34 % of the time DongRaeGu loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.52 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 9.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.97 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.2 %. ~ 41.03 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 1.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.99 % of the time ParalyzE wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.13 %. ~ 57.01 % of the time ParalyzE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.35 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.38 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.17 %. ~ 62.62 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 22.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.4 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.13 %. ~ 40.6 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SuperNova is at ~ 1.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.52 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.15 %. ~ 61.48 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 3.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.96 % of the time ByuL wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.64 %. ~ 54.04 % of the time ByuL loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.11 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 8.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.12 % of the time Solar wins and their chances go up to ~ 12.84 %. ~ 43.88 % of the time Solar loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.2 %.
GSL S2 Code S sOs has the #1 headband! - YongHwa is at ~ 3.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.32 % of the time YongHwa wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.74 %. ~ 51.68 % of the time YongHwa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 7.29 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.2 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.39 %. ~ 46.8 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 93.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.46 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 97.59 %. ~ 30.54 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.55 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.02 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.19 %. ~ 70.98 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Leenock is at ~ 4.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.71 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.54 %. ~ 59.29 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.88 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 4.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.49 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.64 %. ~ 54.51 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 20.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.7 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.52 %. ~ 46.3 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.97 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 94.71 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.1 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.63 %. ~ 39.9 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 88.81 %.
GSL S2 Code S sOs has a ~ 10.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 93.61 % to ~ 100 % herO has a ~ 9.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 94.71 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 8.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.62 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 8.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 40.51 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 7.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.61 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 7.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.44 % to ~ 99.99 % INnoVation has a ~ 6.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.01 % to ~ 99.99 % Classic has a ~ 4.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.1 % to ~ 99.93 % Solar has a ~ 3.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.61 % to ~ 95.34 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.29 % to ~ 90.42 % Maru has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.13 % to ~ 99.95 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 2.65 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.88 % to ~ 86.67 % RagnaroK has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.58 % to ~ 66.63 % Bbyong has a ~ 2.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.19 % to ~ 99.04 % Trap has a ~ 2.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.24 % to ~ 88.1 % YongHwa has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.92 % to ~ 78.97 % Squirtle has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.95 % to ~ 94.75 % soO has a ~ 1.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.36 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 1.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 94.85 % Hydra has a ~ 1.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.42 % to ~ 83.34 % ByuL has a ~ 1.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.19 % to ~ 83.41 % Symbol has a ~ 1.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 75.01 % Dark has a ~ 1.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.77 % to ~ 80.73 % SuperNova has a ~ 0.9 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.54 % to ~ 75.18 % ParalyzE has a ~ 0.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 78.07 % Stork has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 62.07 % Rogue has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.92 % to ~ 93.7 % MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 68.65 % Shine has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 60.04 % TAiLS has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.3 % to ~ 51.2 % TRUE has a ~ 0.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 74.95 % Ruin has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 61.62 %
WCS EU S2 Challenger - Happy is at ~ 3.66 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 78.18 % of the time Happy wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.67 %. ~ 21.82 % of the time Happy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Lambo is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 21.82 % of the time Lambo wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 78.18 % of the time Lambo loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - ForGG is at ~ 24.3 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.23 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 26.86 %. ~ 10.77 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MiNiMaTh is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 10.77 % of the time MiNiMaTh wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 89.23 % of the time MiNiMaTh loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - elfi is at ~ 3.4 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.81 % of the time elfi wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.93 %. ~ 43.19 % of the time elfi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 0.81 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.19 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.87 %. ~ 56.81 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - Genius is at ~ 1.88 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.62 % of the time Genius wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.13 %. ~ 41.38 % of the time Genius loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.11 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Krr is at ~ 0.09 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.38 % of the time Krr wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.22 %. ~ 58.62 % of the time Krr loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - Golden is at ~ 1.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.47 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.04 %. ~ 39.53 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sLivko is at ~ 0.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.53 % of the time sLivko wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.38 %. ~ 60.47 % of the time sLivko loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - HasuObs is at ~ 3.43 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.18 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.01 %. ~ 31.82 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.82 % of the time uThermal wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.71 %. ~ 68.18 % of the time uThermal loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - Verdi is at ~ 0.39 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.87 % of the time Verdi wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.55 %. ~ 30.13 % of the time Verdi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.13 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 69.87 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - MaNa is at ~ 0.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.04 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bly is at ~ 0.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.05 % of the time Bly wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.12 %. ~ 45.95 % of the time Bly loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - YoDa is at ~ 0.71 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.91 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.03 %. ~ 32.09 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.09 % of the time Miniraser wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.06 %. ~ 67.91 % of the time Miniraser loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - Stephano is at ~ 0.11 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.04 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.4 %. ~ 71.96 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Starbuck is at ~ 1.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.96 % of the time Starbuck wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.89 %. ~ 28.04 % of the time Starbuck loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - Kas is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.85 % of the time Kas wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.74 %. ~ 74.15 % of the time Kas loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 14.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 74.15 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.93 %. ~ 25.85 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.86 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.07 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.57 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.14 %. ~ 52.43 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Lilbow is at ~ 0.29 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.43 % of the time Lilbow wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.54 %. ~ 47.57 % of the time Lilbow loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - TargA is at ~ 0.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.77 % of the time TargA wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.6 %. ~ 57.23 % of the time TargA loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 0.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.23 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.51 %. ~ 42.77 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - First is at ~ 2.6 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.08 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.16 %. ~ 38.92 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ShoWTimE is at ~ 0.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.92 % of the time ShoWTimE wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.55 %. ~ 61.08 % of the time ShoWTimE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - LiveZerg is at ~ 0.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.54 % of the time LiveZerg wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.53 %. ~ 48.46 % of the time LiveZerg loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MorroW is at ~ 0.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.46 % of the time MorroW wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.26 %. ~ 51.54 % of the time MorroW loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Challenger - NightEnD is at ~ 0.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.99 % of the time NightEnD wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.21 %. ~ 73.01 % of the time NightEnD loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Tefel is at ~ 0.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 73.01 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.3 %. ~ 26.99 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 11.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 9.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 90.82 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 8.84 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 44.15 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 8.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 65.77 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 8.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 24.32 % to ~ 99.98 % MC has a ~ 7.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % VortiX has a ~ 6.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.93 % to ~ 99.84 % Mvp has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 97.01 % Patience has a ~ 4.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.51 % to ~ 99.97 % Snute has a ~ 4.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 21.89 % to ~ 100 % Welmu has a ~ 2.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.3 % to ~ 99.99 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 95.99 % HasuObs has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.43 % to ~ 84.4 % First has a ~ 1.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.6 % to ~ 67.87 % elfi has a ~ 1.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.41 % to ~ 89.28 % Bunny has a ~ 1.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.91 % to ~ 99.88 % Happy has a ~ 1.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.66 % to ~ 97.48 % BlinG has a ~ 1.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 85.1 % Genius has a ~ 1.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 81.76 % TLO has a ~ 0.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.9 % to ~ 99.94 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.85 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.87 % to ~ 94.4 % Golden has a ~ 0.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.27 % to ~ 74.7 % Starbuck has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.36 % to ~ 81.03 % Tefel has a ~ 0.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.95 % to ~ 66.4 % BabyKnight has a ~ 0.65 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.35 % to ~ 94.06 % MaNa has a ~ 0.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.95 % to ~ 77.68 % Harstem has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.81 % to ~ 66.31 % YoDa has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 58.52 % ToD has a ~ 0.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 83.44 % Grubby has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.75 % to ~ 82.06 % Bly has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.61 % to ~ 71.61 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 80.02 % Verdi has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 60.91 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 69.51 % Lilbow has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 73.72 % TargA has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 67.54 % uThermal has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 62.91 % Kas has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 70.61 % MorroW has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 56.64 % Stephano has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 53.18 % sLivko has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 66.4 % Krr has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 46.26 % DeMusliM has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 46.55 % NightEnD has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 66.96 % Miniraser has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 60.38 % FireCake has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 44.12 % Lambo has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 27.47 % MiNiMaTh has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 18.64 %
WCS AM S2 Challenger - viOLet is at ~ 4.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 77.51 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.12 %. ~ 22.49 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - desRow is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 22.49 % of the time desRow wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 77.51 % of the time desRow loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - JYP is at ~ 1.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.1 % of the time JYP wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.21 %. ~ 37.9 % of the time JYP loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.32 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.9 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.82 %. ~ 62.1 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - SeleCT is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 24.48 % of the time SeleCT wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 75.52 % of the time SeleCT loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 2.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 75.52 % of the time Jim wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.67 %. ~ 24.48 % of the time Jim loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - TheStC is at ~ 0.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.69 % of the time TheStC wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.49 %. ~ 46.31 % of the time TheStC loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Courage is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.31 % of the time Courage wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 53.69 % of the time Courage loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - aLive is at ~ 1.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.14 % of the time aLive wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.15 %. ~ 42.86 % of the time aLive loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Suppy is at ~ 0.32 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.86 % of the time Suppy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.73 %. ~ 57.14 % of the time Suppy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - Ian is at ~ 0.39 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.77 % of the time Ian wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.1 %. ~ 67.23 % of the time Ian loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 8.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.23 % of the time Check wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.6 %. ~ 32.77 % of the time Check loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.67 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - MaSa is at ~ 1.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.94 % of the time MaSa wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.52 %. ~ 34.06 % of the time MaSa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Slam is at ~ 0.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.06 % of the time Slam wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.93 %. ~ 65.94 % of the time Slam loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - MajOr is at ~ 1.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.98 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.77 %. ~ 65.02 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - KingKong is at ~ 9.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.02 % of the time KingKong wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.66 %. ~ 34.98 % of the time KingKong loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.57 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - HerO is at ~ 28.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 77.14 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 35.91 %. ~ 22.86 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.1 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Xenocider is at ~ 0.1 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 22.86 % of the time Xenocider wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.4 %. ~ 77.14 % of the time Xenocider loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - Minigun is at ~ 0.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.95 % of the time Minigun wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.72 %. ~ 44.05 % of the time Minigun loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - qxc is at ~ 0.3 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.05 % of the time qxc wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.67 %. ~ 55.95 % of the time qxc loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - Scarlett is at ~ 2.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.17 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.77 %. ~ 49.83 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 0.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.83 % of the time hendralisk wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.09 %. ~ 50.17 % of the time hendralisk loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - Pigbaby is at ~ 0.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.19 % of the time Pigbaby wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.71 %. ~ 47.81 % of the time Pigbaby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Has is at ~ 3.27 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.81 % of the time Has wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.45 %. ~ 52.19 % of the time Has loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.35 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - Jaedong is at ~ 38.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 93.49 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 41.13 %. ~ 6.51 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.82 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NonY is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 6.51 % of the time NonY wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 93.49 % of the time NonY loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - Top is at ~ 2.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.25 % of the time Top wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.01 %. ~ 50.75 % of the time Top loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Kane is at ~ 0.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.75 % of the time Kane wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.1 %. ~ 49.25 % of the time Kane loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - Sen is at ~ 6.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.03 % of the time Sen wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.97 %. ~ 34.97 % of the time Sen loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Guitarcheese is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.97 % of the time Guitarcheese wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.06 %. ~ 65.03 % of the time Guitarcheese loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Challenger - NesTea is at ~ 0.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.9 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.81 %. ~ 73.1 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iaguz is at ~ 2.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 73.1 % of the time iaguz wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.6 %. ~ 26.9 % of the time iaguz loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 12.96 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 87.28 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 10.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa has a ~ 9.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 46.56 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 8.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 38.76 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 5.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.03 % to ~ 99.99 % KingKong has a ~ 5.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.08 % to ~ 80.96 % Arthur has a ~ 4.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.58 % to ~ 99.74 % HerO has a ~ 3.65 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 28.64 % to ~ 100 % Alicia has a ~ 3.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.77 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 3.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.78 % to ~ 74.41 % Revival has a ~ 2.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.05 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 2.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.57 % to ~ 87.91 % CranK has a ~ 2.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.88 % to ~ 95.25 % Oz has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 27.01 % to ~ 100 % HuK has a ~ 2.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.71 % to ~ 86.97 % iaguz has a ~ 1.93 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.64 % to ~ 64.97 % Jim has a ~ 1.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.78 % to ~ 70.69 % Check has a ~ 1.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.02 % to ~ 99.36 % Scarlett has a ~ 1.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 84.31 % puCK has a ~ 1.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 98.97 % Top has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 76.49 % MacSed has a ~ 1.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.16 % to ~ 85.24 % Sen has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.72 % to ~ 99.91 % aLive has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.82 % to ~ 75.32 % JYP has a ~ 1.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 61.22 % TooDming has a ~ 0.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.62 % to ~ 93.43 % Pigbaby has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.9 % to ~ 59.64 % XiGua has a ~ 0.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.29 % to ~ 84.08 % MajOr has a ~ 0.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.75 % to ~ 98.52 % MaSa has a ~ 0.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.01 % to ~ 72.71 % Has has a ~ 0.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.27 % to ~ 99.9 % hendralisk has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 55.53 % Kane has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.57 % to ~ 63.84 % Minigun has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.41 % to ~ 66.63 % neeb has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.49 % to ~ 92.96 % Suppy has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 60.64 % TheStC has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 66.15 % Illusion has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 74.29 % qxc has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.3 % to ~ 79.39 % NesTea has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.22 % to ~ 75.12 % Slam has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 97.3 % Ian has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 98.25 % Xenocider has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 51.94 % Guitarcheese has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 29.7 % Courage has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 29.56 % desRow has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 40.83 % SeleCT has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 39.68 %
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--------UPDATE Friday, Apr 25 6:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Dreamhack Bucharest Preview and GSL Global Championship Semifinals set! GSL Global Championship Semifinals preview. Starts in + Show Spoiler [soO, Zest in GSL Global Championship] +
GSL Global Championship - soO is at ~ 20.69 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.37 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.85 %. ~ 60.63 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.63 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.53 %. ~ 39.37 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 98.5 %.
GSL Global Championship - PartinG is at ~ 22.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.09 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.98 %. ~ 50.91 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.91 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 49.09 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %.
GSL Global Championship Zest has a ~ 32.85 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.12 % to ~ 99.8 % San has a ~ 29.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 99.99 % PartinG has a ~ 25.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.74 % to ~ 25.21 % soO has a ~ 11.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.69 % to ~ 26.19 %
Here are the winning chances for Dreamhack Bucharest. I don't yet have the groups set though, this is with the previously announced player list. + Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +
DreamHack Bucharest jjakji has a ~ 7.97 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.00 % to ~ 100.00 % MC has a ~ 7.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % StarDust has a ~ 6.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 61.14 % to ~ 94.61 % INnoVation has a ~ 6.70 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.81 % to ~ 31.58 % Patience has a ~ 6.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.76 % to ~ 39.39 % HyuN has a ~ 5.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 5.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 60.05 % to ~ 97.66 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.63 % to ~ 48.65 % HerO has a ~ 4.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 39.66 % to ~ 79.43 % First has a ~ 3.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.36 % to ~ 9.26 % Snute has a ~ 3.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.79 % to ~ 47.55 % Welmu has a ~ 3.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.73 % to ~ 38.58 % Leenock has a ~ 2.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.03 % to ~ 10.38 % RorO has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.42 % to ~ 1.69 % TY has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 0.59 % MaNa has a ~ 1.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.86 % to ~ 5.33 % Harstem has a ~ 1.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 3.99 % Bunny has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.77 % to ~ 13.34 % YoDa has a ~ 1.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.08 % to ~ 3.20 % Golden has a ~ 1.60 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.69 % to ~ 4.87 % HuK has a ~ 1.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.97 % to ~ 11.26 % Impact has a ~ 1.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.28 % Ryung has a ~ 1.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.18 % TLO has a ~ 1.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 20.44 % Verdi has a ~ 0.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.40 % to ~ 1.57 % ToD has a ~ 0.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.40 % to ~ 1.39 % uThermal has a ~ 0.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 1.31 % Kas has a ~ 0.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 1.38 % TargA has a ~ 0.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 1.54 % Lilbow has a ~ 0.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.22 % Zanster has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.05 % Socke has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Serral has a ~ 0.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.11 % MorroW has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.78 % NightEnD has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.10 % to ~ 0.47 % Ret has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % roof has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.02 %
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 2825 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.12 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #5 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 96.2 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #6 Jinair sOs is at ~ 95.16 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 92 %, Min WCS Points: 1925 #8 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 89.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1950 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 61.14 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #10 StarTale Life is at ~ 60.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #11 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 49.7 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #12 Acer MMA is at ~ 45.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 41.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #14 Liquid HerO is at ~ 39.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #15 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 31.29 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 23.63 %, Min WCS Points: 775 #17 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.74 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #18 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 21.35 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #19 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 20.69 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #20 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 20.3 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #21Bomber is at ~ 19.67 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #22 Ai Patience is at ~ 18.76 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 mouz VortiX is at ~ 18.69 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #24 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 16.81 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #25 Liquid Snute is at ~ 16.79 %, Min WCS Points: 850
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--------UPDATE Tuesday, Apr 15 6:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Copenhagen Games Spring and 5 placeholder tournaments added, GSL Global Championship groups set! Copenhagen Games Spring 2014 added to the simulation with the round of 32 groups set. 5 placeholder tournaments added to represent currently unannounced tournaments, filled with randomized players, with 750 WCS Points for the champion, 4000 WCS Points total each tournament (same as a Dreamhack or IEM). GSL Global Championship Group Stage 1 set.
#1MC is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 3125 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.97 %, Min WCS Points: 2125 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.10 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #5 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 97.21 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #6 Jinair sOs is at ~ 95.61 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 91.36 %, Min WCS Points: 1950 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 89.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1925 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 56.07 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #10 StarTale Life is at ~ 53.69 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #11 Acer MMA is at ~ 53.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #12 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 53.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #13 Liquid HerO is at ~ 43.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 41.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #15 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 40.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 26.07 %, Min WCS Points: 775 #17Bomber is at ~ 24.71 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 24.11 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #19 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 23.10 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #20 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 22.64 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #21 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.32 %, Min WCS Points: 725 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 21.20 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 19.40 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #24 Liquid Snute is at ~ 19.34 %, Min WCS Points: 775 #25 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 16.71 %, Min WCS Points: 450
Snute went up by ~ 5.09 %, going from ~ 14.25 % to ~ 19.34 % PartinG went up by ~ 2.55 %, going from ~ 19.77 % to ~ 22.32 % Dear went up by ~ 2.16 %, going from ~ 9.80 % to ~ 11.95 % Heart went up by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.81 % to ~ 4.82 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.70 %, going from ~ 22.41 % to ~ 24.11 % VortiX went up by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 19.72 % to ~ 21.20 % Maru went up by ~ 1.29 %, going from ~ 9.77 % to ~ 11.06 % Classic went up by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 13.24 % Rain went up by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 40.12 % to ~ 41.23 % Jaedong went up by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 25.18 % to ~ 26.07 % Mvp went up by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 12.88 % to ~ 13.71 % puCK went up by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 4.42 % NaNiwa went up by ~ 0.80 %, going from ~ 11.69 % to ~ 12.48 % Patience went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 1.83 % to ~ 2.62 % Soulkey went up by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 7.25 % to ~ 8.00 % soO went up by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 18.69 % to ~ 19.40 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.70 %, going from ~ 3.62 % to ~ 4.33 % Welmu went up by ~ 0.66 %, going from ~ 11.44 % to ~ 12.10 % Check went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 1.21 % Bbyong went up by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 5.61 % to ~ 6.16 %
Oz went down by ~ 4.90 %, going from ~ 45.21 % to ~ 40.31 % jjakji went down by ~ 2.83 %, going from ~ 91.95 % to ~ 89.12 % Polt went down by ~ 2.52 %, going from ~ 93.88 % to ~ 91.36 % sOs went down by ~ 2.38 %, going from ~ 98.00 % to ~ 95.61 % Sen went down by ~ 2.17 %, going from ~ 10.70 % to ~ 8.53 % herO went down by ~ 1.74 %, going from ~ 98.95 % to ~ 97.21 % Zest went down by ~ 1.38 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 98.10 % Has went down by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 2.04 % TaeJa went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 54.29 % to ~ 53.26 % Revival went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 23.65 % to ~ 22.64 % HerO went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 44.50 % to ~ 43.49 % HuK went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 5.22 % to ~ 4.51 % Solar went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 11.11 % to ~ 10.52 %
Copenhagen Games Spring HyuN has a ~ 22.58 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % Snute has a ~ 16.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.34 % to ~ 24.47 % Bunny has a ~ 9.90 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.33 % to ~ 5.49 % Happy has a ~ 9.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.36 % to ~ 4.21 % elfi has a ~ 9.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.23 % Golden has a ~ 4.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 0.12 % MorroW has a ~ 3.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Serral has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.01 % KrasS has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.01 % StarNaN has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % SpaceMarine has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Jona has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Namshar has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % StrinterN has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Pink has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Utopi has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Lillekanin has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Thorminator has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % PJ has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Storm has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Thias has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Bloop has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Theo has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Munck has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Snovski has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % POX has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Raggy has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % FeMo has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Spazymazy has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 %
Copenhagen Games Spring - PJ is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 33.91 % of the time PJ wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 66.09 % of the time PJ loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 0.07 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 87.28 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 12.72 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StrinterN is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.32 % of the time StrinterN wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 46.68 % of the time StrinterN loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Spazymazy is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.49 % of the time Spazymazy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 74.51 % of the time Spazymazy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Pink is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.18 % of the time Pink wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 57.82 % of the time Pink loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Utopi is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.53 % of the time Utopi wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 58.47 % of the time Utopi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Raggy is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.20 % of the time Raggy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 74.80 % of the time Raggy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 4.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 91.09 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.40 %. ~ 8.91 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.63 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Happy is at ~ 3.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.30 % of the time Happy wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.45 %. ~ 15.70 % of the time Happy loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - KrasS is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.75 % of the time KrasS wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 37.25 % of the time KrasS loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Namshar is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 27.95 % of the time Namshar wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 72.05 % of the time Namshar loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Theo is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.00 % of the time Theo wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 75.00 % of the time Theo loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring HyuN has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - HyuN is at ~ 100.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 93.79 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 6.21 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 100.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Thorminator is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.20 % of the time Thorminator wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 59.80 % of the time Thorminator loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snovski is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.59 % of the time Snovski wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 69.41 % of the time Snovski loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FeMo is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.42 % of the time FeMo wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 64.58 % of the time FeMo loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - MorroW is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.53 % of the time MorroW wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 23.47 % of the time MorroW loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Serral is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.48 % of the time Serral wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 34.52 % of the time Serral loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jona is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.44 % of the time Jona wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 62.56 % of the time Jona loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - POX is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 20.54 % of the time POX wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 79.46 % of the time POX loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Munck is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.32 % of the time Munck wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 71.68 % of the time Munck loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - elfi is at ~ 0.17 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.88 % of the time elfi wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.17 %. ~ 14.12 % of the time elfi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Lillekanin is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.57 % of the time Lillekanin wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 64.43 % of the time Lillekanin loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SpaceMarine is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.24 % of the time SpaceMarine wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 49.76 % of the time SpaceMarine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Snute is at ~ 19.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 95.96 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.49 %. ~ 4.04 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 15.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ZhuGeLiang is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 16.54 % of the time ZhuGeLiang wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 83.46 % of the time ZhuGeLiang loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Storm is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.88 % of the time Storm wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 58.12 % of the time Storm loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bloop is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.61 % of the time Bloop wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 54.39 % of the time Bloop loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Thias is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.24 % of the time Thias wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 68.76 % of the time Thias loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarNaN is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.81 % of the time StarNaN wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 34.19 % of the time StarNaN loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 2.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 91.77 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.66 %. ~ 8.23 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.10 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PainGamer is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 11.19 % of the time PainGamer wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 88.81 % of the time PainGamer loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
GSL Global Championship - DongRaeGu is at ~ 5.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.13 % of the time DongRaeGu wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.03 %. ~ 74.87 % of the time DongRaeGu loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PartinG is at ~ 22.32 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.73 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.50 %. ~ 56.27 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.40 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 6.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 17.70 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.54 %. ~ 82.30 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hack is at ~ 0.10 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 8.12 % of the time Hack wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.12 %. ~ 91.88 % of the time Hack loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.10 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FanTaSy is at ~ 0.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 5.32 % of the time FanTaSy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.34 %. ~ 94.68 % of the time FanTaSy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.30 %.
GSL Global Championship - Maru is at ~ 11.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.38 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.75 %. ~ 59.62 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Flash is at ~ 2.56 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.96 % of the time Flash wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.73 %. ~ 73.04 % of the time Flash loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RorO is at ~ 0.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 17.40 % of the time RorO wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.57 %. ~ 82.60 % of the time RorO loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.52 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Action is at ~ 0.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 5.27 % of the time Action wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.13 %. ~ 94.73 % of the time Action loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Impact is at ~ 0.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 9.99 % of the time Impact wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.14 %. ~ 90.01 % of the time Impact loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.11 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Curious is at ~ 3.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.08 % of the time Curious wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.66 %. ~ 41.92 % of the time Curious loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.70 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RagnaroK is at ~ 1.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.58 % of the time RagnaroK wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.54 %. ~ 42.42 % of the time RagnaroK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.49 % of the time Stats wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.59 %. ~ 68.51 % of the time Stats loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.81 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.85 % of the time Rogue wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.40 %. ~ 47.15 % of the time Rogue loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Flash is at ~ 2.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.56 % of the time Flash wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.07 %. ~ 43.44 % of the time Flash loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hydra is at ~ 1.93 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.15 % of the time Hydra wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.40 %. ~ 48.85 % of the time Hydra loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.39 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.89 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.81 %. ~ 55.11 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Panic is at ~ 0.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.40 % of the time Panic wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.11 %. ~ 52.60 % of the time Panic loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code A - SuperNova is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.58 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.71 %. ~ 39.42 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TY is at ~ 1.07 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.05 % of the time TY wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.86 %. ~ 47.95 % of the time TY loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.20 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Choya is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.58 % of the time Choya wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 61.42 % of the time Choya loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.78 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.35 %. ~ 51.22 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Squirtle is at ~ 6.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.68 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.94 %. ~ 28.32 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.11 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.31 %. ~ 54.89 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pet is at ~ 0.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.74 % of the time Pet wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.27 %. ~ 58.26 % of the time Pet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Action is at ~ 0.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.47 % of the time Action wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.26 %. ~ 58.53 % of the time Action loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Symbol is at ~ 1.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.81 % of the time Symbol wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.32 %. ~ 39.19 % of the time Symbol loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 2.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.19 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.35 %. ~ 34.81 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Billowy is at ~ 0.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.81 % of the time Billowy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.77 %. ~ 52.19 % of the time Billowy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hitmaN is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.19 % of the time hitmaN wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.81 % of the time hitmaN loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Leenock is at ~ 2.70 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.04 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.12 %. ~ 39.96 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FanTaSy is at ~ 0.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.89 % of the time FanTaSy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.58 %. ~ 52.11 % of the time FanTaSy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.16 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.01 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.32 %. ~ 56.99 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - eMotion is at ~ 0.40 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.06 % of the time eMotion wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.75 %. ~ 50.94 % of the time eMotion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.06 %.
-----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Apr 14 3:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Season 1 Completed! Here are the changes in chances from the WCS EU and AM finals. + Show Spoiler [Results] +
HyuN went up by ~ 9.31 %, going from ~ 90.69 % to ~ 100.00 % MC went up by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 98.67 % to ~ 100.00 % MMA went down by ~ 23.83 %, going from ~ 77.24 % to ~ 53.41 % Oz went down by ~ 17.86 %, going from ~ 63.07 % to ~ 45.21 %
#1MC is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 3125 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #5 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 98.95 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #6 Jinair sOs is at ~ 98.00 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 93.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1950 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 91.95 %, Min WCS Points: 1925 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 56.50 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #10 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 54.29 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 53.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #12 Acer MMA is at ~ 53.41 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 45.21 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #14 Liquid HerO is at ~ 44.50 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #15 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 25.18 %, Min WCS Points: 775 #17Bomber is at ~ 24.40 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #18 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 23.65 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 23.40 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #20 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 22.41 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #21 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 19.77 %, Min WCS Points: 725 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 19.72 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 18.69 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #24 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 16.29 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #25 Liquid Snute is at ~ 14.25 %, Min WCS Points: 775
GSL Global Championship MMA has a ~ 20.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 53.41 % to ~ 61.46 % Zest has a ~ 19.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 99.97 % MC has a ~ 17.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % HyuN has a ~ 14.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % soO has a ~ 6.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.69 % to ~ 26.75 % Oz has a ~ 5.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 45.21 % to ~ 58.72 % PartinG has a ~ 3.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.77 % to ~ 25.12 % Squirtle has a ~ 2.40 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.01 % to ~ 7.30 % Maru has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.77 % to ~ 13.92 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 1.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.57 % to ~ 6.71 % Flash has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 3.06 % RorO has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.48 % to ~ 0.65 % Impact has a ~ 0.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.20 % Hack has a ~ 0.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 0.15 % FanTaSy has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.37 % to ~ 0.50 % Action has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.21 %
GSL S2 Code S herO has a ~ 12.20 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.95 % to ~ 100.00 % sOs has a ~ 11.58 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.00 % to ~ 100.00 % Zest has a ~ 7.36 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100.00 % INnoVation has a ~ 7.20 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.29 % to ~ 99.76 % PartinG has a ~ 7.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.77 % to ~ 100.00 % Rain has a ~ 6.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 40.12 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 5.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 53.49 % to ~ 100.00 % Solar has a ~ 5.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.11 % to ~ 99.46 % Classic has a ~ 4.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 100.00 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.25 % to ~ 97.97 % Maru has a ~ 3.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.77 % to ~ 100.00 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 2.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.57 % to ~ 97.43 % YongHwa has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.94 % to ~ 92.83 % Squirtle has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.01 % to ~ 99.41 % Bbyong has a ~ 2.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.61 % to ~ 99.96 % ByuL has a ~ 1.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 95.41 % soO has a ~ 1.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.69 % to ~ 100.00 % Curious has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 97.82 % Leenock has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.72 % to ~ 95.76 % Flash has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 94.74 % Trap has a ~ 1.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 97.37 % Dark has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.08 % to ~ 94.73 % RagnaroK has a ~ 0.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.70 % to ~ 81.69 % Hydra has a ~ 0.90 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.98 % to ~ 95.37 % Symbol has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.64 % to ~ 91.53 % ParalyzE has a ~ 0.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.35 % to ~ 93.85 % TY has a ~ 0.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 80.72 % SuperNova has a ~ 0.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.33 % to ~ 91.35 % TAiLS has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.56 % to ~ 75.92 % Rogue has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.78 % to ~ 99.30 % eMotion has a ~ 0.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 76.67 % Billowy has a ~ 0.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.46 % to ~ 76.78 % Panic has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 93.88 % Shine has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.46 % to ~ 84.21 % FanTaSy has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.37 % to ~ 92.21 % Ruin has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.22 % to ~ 87.78 % Stats has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 92.77 % Stork has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 82.00 % TRUE has a ~ 0.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 92.65 % MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 87.33 % Action has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 85.98 % Pet has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 91.71 % Choya has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 65.89 % hitmaN has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 61.05 %
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 13.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % jjakji has a ~ 10.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 91.95 % to ~ 100.00 % MMA has a ~ 9.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 53.41 % to ~ 100.00 % StarDust has a ~ 8.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 56.50 % to ~ 100.00 % MC has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % ForGG has a ~ 7.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.41 % to ~ 100.00 % VortiX has a ~ 7.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.72 % to ~ 100.00 % Mvp has a ~ 5.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.88 % to ~ 99.70 % NaNiwa has a ~ 4.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.69 % to ~ 99.96 % Snute has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.25 % to ~ 100.00 % Welmu has a ~ 3.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.44 % to ~ 100.00 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.08 % to ~ 99.57 % HasuObs has a ~ 2.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.75 % to ~ 96.14 % Bunny has a ~ 1.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.62 % to ~ 97.55 % Genius has a ~ 1.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.03 % to ~ 95.23 % Happy has a ~ 1.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.87 % to ~ 95.43 % TLO has a ~ 1.00 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 100.00 % BlinG has a ~ 0.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.75 % to ~ 96.63 % Starbuck has a ~ 0.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.70 % to ~ 95.11 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.81 % to ~ 99.42 % BabyKnight has a ~ 0.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 99.37 % Bly has a ~ 0.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.28 % to ~ 90.88 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 0.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 94.24 % Grubby has a ~ 0.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 96.62 % Kas has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 89.28 % TargA has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 89.74 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 89.26 % Lilbow has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 93.05 % sLivko has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 88.31 % NightEnD has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 87.33 % Patience has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.83 % to ~ 100.00 % Dear has a ~ 0.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.80 % to ~ 100.00 % KingKong has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.84 % to ~ 90.66 % Sage has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 91.00 % Sora has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 96.24 % elfi has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 87.58 % First has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 85.25 % Super has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 92.32 % Petraeus has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 81.13 % Avenge has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.27 % to ~ 81.98 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 89.64 % Miniraser has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 89.53 % Harstem has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 86.27 % viOLet has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 88.21 % RorO has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.48 % to ~ 99.98 % CoCa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.24 % to ~ 88.21 % Trust has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 87.51 % MaNa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 93.53 % duckdeok has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 80.51 % HeRoMaRinE has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 95.82 % JonnyREcco has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 81.43 %
WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 14.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 93.88 % to ~ 100.00 % HyuN has a ~ 11.60 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % TaeJa has a ~ 10.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 54.29 % to ~ 100.00 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.18 % to ~ 100.00 % Bomber has a ~ 6.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 24.40 % to ~ 100.00 % HerO has a ~ 6.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 44.50 % to ~ 100.00 % Alicia has a ~ 5.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.40 % to ~ 100.00 % Arthur has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.95 % to ~ 99.99 % Revival has a ~ 3.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.65 % to ~ 100.00 % Oz has a ~ 3.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 45.21 % to ~ 100.00 % Scarlett has a ~ 3.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.66 % to ~ 96.17 % CranK has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.76 % to ~ 99.52 % HuK has a ~ 2.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.22 % to ~ 97.42 % aLive has a ~ 1.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.53 % to ~ 92.34 % MacSed has a ~ 1.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.19 % to ~ 97.15 % Sen has a ~ 1.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.70 % to ~ 100.00 % MajOr has a ~ 1.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.73 % to ~ 99.94 % puCK has a ~ 1.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 99.95 % Heart has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.81 % to ~ 97.35 % TooDming has a ~ 1.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.39 % to ~ 99.37 % Top has a ~ 1.08 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.07 % to ~ 90.88 % XiGua has a ~ 1.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.13 % to ~ 96.93 % MaSa has a ~ 0.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.67 % to ~ 91.14 % NesTea has a ~ 0.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.48 % to ~ 94.41 % Has has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 99.99 % Minigun has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.81 % to ~ 89.11 % TheStC has a ~ 0.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 88.87 % neeb has a ~ 0.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 99.31 % Illusion has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 93.47 % Jim has a ~ 0.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 89.95 % Patience has a ~ 0.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.83 % to ~ 100.00 % Dear has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.80 % to ~ 100.00 % hendralisk has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 81.19 % KingKong has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.84 % to ~ 93.01 % Sage has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 92.95 % Kane has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 84.31 % iaguz has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 82.52 % Sora has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 96.96 % First has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 86.11 % PiG has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.10 % to ~ 87.32 % Suppy has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 84.56 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 91.00 % Super has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 93.53 % Avenge has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.27 % to ~ 86.37 % Slam has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 97.69 % viOLet has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 90.54 % RorO has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.48 % to ~ 99.98 % CoCa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.24 % to ~ 90.02 % Trust has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 89.50 % Ian has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 98.45 % mOOnGLaDe has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 80.74 %
I have also updated the bbcode generation to output not just the upcoming matches, but also the top 25, biggest winners and losers, and also tournament winning chances. Check that out here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?bbcode=1
And remember that I update the website much more often than I update this thread, the website is usually updated everyday when there are WCS matches. Here are all the Code A previews as they are now. + Show Spoiler [Code A Previews] +
GSL S2 Code A - Curious is at ~ 2.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.11 % of the time Curious wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.57 %. ~ 41.89 % of the time Curious loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RagnaroK is at ~ 1.70 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.59 % of the time RagnaroK wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.72 %. ~ 42.41 % of the time RagnaroK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.30 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.50 % of the time Stats wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.63 %. ~ 68.50 % of the time Stats loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.81 % of the time Rogue wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.34 %. ~ 47.19 % of the time Rogue loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Flash is at ~ 2.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.58 % of the time Flash wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.03 %. ~ 43.42 % of the time Flash loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hydra is at ~ 1.98 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.20 % of the time Hydra wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.45 %. ~ 48.80 % of the time Hydra loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.84 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.92 %. ~ 55.16 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Panic is at ~ 0.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.37 % of the time Panic wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.15 %. ~ 52.63 % of the time Panic loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code A - SuperNova is at ~ 1.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.44 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.98 %. ~ 38.56 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.30 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TY is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.58 % of the time TY wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.98 %. ~ 48.42 % of the time TY loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Choya is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.44 % of the time Choya wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 61.56 % of the time Choya loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0.20 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.54 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.36 %. ~ 51.46 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Squirtle is at ~ 6.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.69 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.90 %. ~ 28.31 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.13 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.38 %. ~ 54.87 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pet is at ~ 0.14 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.68 % of the time Pet wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.30 %. ~ 58.32 % of the time Pet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Action is at ~ 0.14 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.50 % of the time Action wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.31 %. ~ 58.50 % of the time Action loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Symbol is at ~ 1.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.05 % of the time Symbol wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.49 %. ~ 38.95 % of the time Symbol loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.31 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 2.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.71 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.53 %. ~ 34.29 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Billowy is at ~ 0.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.39 % of the time Billowy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.87 %. ~ 52.61 % of the time Billowy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hitmaN is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.85 % of the time hitmaN wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 74.15 % of the time hitmaN loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Leenock is at ~ 2.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.90 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.14 %. ~ 40.10 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.60 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FanTaSy is at ~ 0.37 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.33 % of the time FanTaSy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.68 %. ~ 51.67 % of the time FanTaSy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.17 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.84 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.36 %. ~ 57.16 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - eMotion is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.94 % of the time eMotion wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.85 %. ~ 51.06 % of the time eMotion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.08 %.
With the completion of the WCS EU Semifinals - San stayed at ~ 99.99% Jjakji went from ~ 95.95 % down to ~ 90.38 % MC went from ~ 87.08 % up to ~ 98.67 % MMA went from ~ 54.72 % up to ~ 77.24 %
With the completion of the WCS AM Semifinals - Alicia went from ~ 51.7 % down to ~ 26.89 % Revival went from ~ 46.92 % down to ~ 22.62 % HyuN went from ~ 72.75 % up to ~ 90.69 % Oz went from ~ 39.74 % up to ~ 63.07 %
- MMA is at ~ 77.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.86 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.58 %. ~ 49.14 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 54.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 98.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.14 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 50.86 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 97.38 %.
HyuN has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - HyuN is at ~ 90.69 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.03 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 35.97 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 74.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 63.07 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.97 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.97 %. ~ 64.03 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 42.33 %.
We also see seemigly unrelated players such as Jaedong, Polt, sOs, and Liquid Hero losing around 0.5% to 1% with the results of these semifinals. I think this is mainly because of Jjakji and San being knocked out, which causes the WCS Points to be more spread out as opposed to a few guys at the top hoarding them all. Jaedong went from ~ 25.12 % down to ~ 24.52 % Polt went from ~ 93.34 % down to ~ 92.55 % sOs went from ~ 97.55 % down to ~ 97.02 % Liquid Hero went from ~ 43.54 % down to ~ 42.43 %
Also note that the winner of WCS AM takes the #2 headband into the GSL Global Championship, where it might fall into the hands of a GSL player so the #2 can finally challenge sOs for the #1! -----------------------
- MC is at ~ 67.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.89 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 86.73 %. ~ 63.11 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 56.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 75.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 63.11 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 85.46 %. ~ 36.89 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 57.94 %.
- jjakji is at ~ 85.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.01 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 95.84 %. ~ 50.99 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 76.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 36.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.99 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 50.94 %. ~ 49.01 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 22.47 %.
- MMA is at ~ 43.80 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.96 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.60 %. ~ 37.04 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 23.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 23.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.04 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 40.06 %. ~ 62.96 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.20 %.
- San is at ~ 99.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.69 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 37.31 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.90 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 21.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.31 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 36.98 %. ~ 62.69 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.43 %.
San has a ~ 20.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.96 % to ~ 100.00 % MMA has a ~ 17.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 43.80 % to ~ 99.60 % StarDust has a ~ 15.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 75.31 % to ~ 100.00 % jjakji has a ~ 15.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 85.75 % to ~ 100.00 % VortiX has a ~ 11.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 36.99 % to ~ 99.63 % MC has a ~ 7.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 67.83 % to ~ 100.00 % Welmu has a ~ 6.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 21.59 % to ~ 99.81 % Snute has a ~ 6.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.78 % to ~ 99.86 %
Alicia has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Bomber is at ~ 40.51 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.77 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.61 %. ~ 49.23 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 24.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 33.86 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.23 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 48.84 %. ~ 50.77 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.33 %.
- TaeJa is at ~ 70.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.70 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 84.69 %. ~ 48.30 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 55.50 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 53.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.30 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.47 %. ~ 51.70 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.26 %.
- Polt is at ~ 98.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.36 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.75 %. ~ 28.64 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 93.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 18.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.64 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 36.87 %. ~ 71.36 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.74 %.
- Oz is at ~ 20.39 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.01 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.09 %. ~ 58.99 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 23.80 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.99 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 32.19 %. ~ 41.01 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 11.73 %.
Polt has a ~ 29.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.00 % to ~ 100.00 % TaeJa has a ~ 15.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 70.59 % to ~ 100.00 % HyuN has a ~ 14.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 53.78 % to ~ 100.00 % Bomber has a ~ 11.60 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 40.51 % to ~ 99.99 % Alicia has a ~ 10.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.86 % to ~ 99.88 % Arthur has a ~ 8.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.80 % to ~ 98.77 % Oz has a ~ 5.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.39 % to ~ 99.97 % Revival has a ~ 4.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.22 % to ~ 99.98 %
-----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Mar 26 3:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Season 2 Qualifiers Completed! It seems that these qualifiers turned out well for the participants of WCS AM, with most of the AM Premier players seeing around an 0.8% increase in chances. This is due partly to the guarantee of strong players like Innovation, Flash, Super, and Rogue being locked into GSL instead of the rare possibility of them going to WCS AM. Also helping them is Byul forfeiting his spot in WCS AM Challenger to qualify for GSL. In fact, Byul is the only person that successfully qualified and yet his chances went down due to the stronger set of players in GSL. Byul is the #4 biggest loser in chances for this update, going down by ~ 4.09 %, from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 2.59 %. From the first GSL semifinal, Rain vs Zest, we see Zest went up by ~ 19.46 %, from ~ 53.57 % to ~ 73.03 %, while Rain went down by ~ 16.69 %, from ~ 60% to ~ 43.31 %. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
VortiX went up by ~ 25.68 %, going from ~ 15.26 % to ~ 40.94 % Zest went up by ~ 19.46 %, going from ~ 53.57 % to ~ 73.03 % MMA went up by ~ 9.03 %, going from ~ 24.02 % to ~ 33.05 % INnoVation went up by ~ 3.08 %, going from ~ 6.29 % to ~ 9.37 % Nerchio went up by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 10.82 % to ~ 12.66 % RagnaroK went up by ~ 1.70 %, going from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 2.43 % Bomber went up by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 39.10 % to ~ 40.33 % Sage went up by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 1.05 % TaeJa went up by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 64.12 % to ~ 65.10 % Welmu went up by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 18.40 % to ~ 19.38 % Super went up by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 1.06 % to ~ 1.94 % KingKong went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.79 % MajOr went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 3.06 % to ~ 3.84 % HuK went up by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 12.04 % to ~ 12.81 % Jim went up by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.75 % Check went up by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.65 % HerO went up by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 49.22 % to ~ 49.86 % Alicia went up by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 26.32 % to ~ 26.94 % TY went up by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 0.75 % to ~ 1.37 % Flash went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 1.23 % to ~ 1.80 % Rogue went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 0.40 % to ~ 0.96 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.56 % Life went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 82.56 % to ~ 83.08 %
Mvp went down by ~ 17.21 %, going from ~ 29.79 % to ~ 12.58 % Rain went down by ~ 16.69 %, going from ~ 60.00 % to ~ 43.31 % Bunny went down by ~ 4.53 %, going from ~ 8.36 % to ~ 3.83 % ByuL went down by ~ 4.09 %, going from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 2.59 % PartinG went down by ~ 3.01 %, going from ~ 20.35 % to ~ 17.35 % StarDust went down by ~ 2.96 %, going from ~ 67.96 % to ~ 65.00 % Patience went down by ~ 2.86 %, going from ~ 4.44 % to ~ 1.57 % Snute went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 21.24 % to ~ 19.48 % Dear went down by ~ 1.59 %, going from ~ 38.44 % to ~ 36.85 % MC went down by ~ 1.57 %, going from ~ 64.84 % to ~ 63.27 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.50 %, going from ~ 21.26 % to ~ 19.75 % Creator went down by ~ 1.31 %, going from ~ 1.59 % to ~ 0.28 % Hurricane went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 1.54 % to ~ 0.48 % HyuN went down by ~ 1.02 %, going from ~ 48.97 % to ~ 47.95 % Classic went down by ~ 1.00 %, going from ~ 9.88 % to ~ 8.88 % Oz went down by ~ 0.95 %, going from ~ 14.75 % to ~ 13.80 % TLO went down by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 11.36 % to ~ 10.42 % NaNiwa went down by ~ 0.80 %, going from ~ 12.11 % to ~ 11.31 % BlinG went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 5.10 % to ~ 4.34 % BBoongBBoong went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 0.21 % Avenge went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 1.14 % to ~ 0.49 % Hydra went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 3.68 % to ~ 3.03 % CoCa went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 0.92 % to ~ 0.38 % MarineKing went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 0.66 % to ~ 0.16 %
Here are some previews for upcoming matches in WCS EU and the other GSL semifinal with Life vs soO. Make sure to check the website for updates on these previews, because results from 1 match can have big effects on other match previews. Starts in + Show Spoiler [jjakji, Snute, Grubby, Dayshi in WCS E…] +
- jjakji is at ~ 85.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 74.67 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 92.22 %. ~ 25.33 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 66.56 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 19.48 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.49 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.26 %. ~ 49.51 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 3.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.15 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.36 %. ~ 68.85 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 4.09 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.69 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.08 %. ~ 56.31 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.77 %.
- BabyKnight is at ~ 2.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.65 % of the time BabyKnight wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.58 %. ~ 67.35 % of the time BabyKnight loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.38 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 10.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.18 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.90 %. ~ 60.82 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 19.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.02 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.98 %. ~ 39.98 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 65.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.16 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.32 %. ~ 31.84 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 42.92 %.
- Life is at ~ 83.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.16 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 91.75 %. ~ 28.84 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 61.69 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 16.81 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.84 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 40.90 %. ~ 71.16 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.04 %.
- Nerchio is at ~ 12.66 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.89 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.89 %. ~ 61.11 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 63.27 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.24 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 77.41 %. ~ 42.76 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 44.35 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.93 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.39 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 28.61 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 4.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.48 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.44 %. ~ 67.52 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.36 %.
- Rain is at ~ 60.09 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.25 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 83.11 %. ~ 58.75 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 43.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 54.66 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.75 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 73.24 %. ~ 41.25 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 28.20 %.
- Life is at ~ 83.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.13 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 92.18 %. ~ 28.87 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 62.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 17.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.87 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 41.45 %. ~ 71.13 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.16 %.
INnoVation has a ~ 28.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.34 % to ~ 10.89 % Patience has a ~ 24.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 7.10 % Flash has a ~ 20.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.16 % to ~ 2.24 % Hurricane has a ~ 20.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.49 % to ~ 2.90 % Creator has a ~ 20.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.44 % to ~ 2.88 % Avenge has a ~ 19.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.09 % to ~ 2.20 % CoCa has a ~ 19.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 1.77 % TY has a ~ 18.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.70 % to ~ 1.45 % Super has a ~ 18.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 1.73 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 18.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 1.80 % Trust has a ~ 17.90 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.80 % to ~ 1.65 % RagnaroK has a ~ 17.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.68 % to ~ 1.43 % duckdeok has a ~ 17.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.67 % to ~ 1.46 % MarineKing has a ~ 17.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.50 % to ~ 1.03 % KangHo has a ~ 16.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.43 % to ~ 0.94 % First has a ~ 16.70 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 1.33 % NAKSEO has a ~ 16.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.47 % to ~ 1.06 % GuMiho has a ~ 16.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.50 % to ~ 1.09 % YoDa has a ~ 16.20 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.44 % to ~ 0.98 % Hack has a ~ 15.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.30 % to ~ 0.63 % Ryung has a ~ 15.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 0.55 % Impact has a ~ 15.40 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 0.74 % Dream has a ~ 14.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.40 % to ~ 0.90 % EffOrt has a ~ 14.60 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 0.76 % Rogue has a ~ 14.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 0.85 % YugiOh has a ~ 13.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 0.63 % ByuN has a ~ 13.84 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 0.45 % Puzzle has a ~ 13.70 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 0.40 % Cure has a ~ 13.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.34 % Armani has a ~ 13.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 0.50 % Seed has a ~ 13.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.22 % to ~ 0.50 % Reality has a ~ 12.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.39 % Sacsri has a ~ 12.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.45 % Sniper has a ~ 12.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.39 % KeeN has a ~ 12.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.36 % hyvaa has a ~ 11.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.31 % sC has a ~ 11.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.40 % Sleep has a ~ 11.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 0.33 % Billowy has a ~ 11.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.35 % Shine has a ~ 11.50 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 0.28 % JYP has a ~ 11.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.32 % Pigbaby has a ~ 11.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.34 % FanTaSy has a ~ 10.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 0.21 % Lyn has a ~ 10.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.14 % Center has a ~ 10.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 0.22 % Sting has a ~ 10.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 0.20 % Golden has a ~ 10.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.17 % ZerO has a ~ 9.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 0.23 % Terminator has a ~ 9.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.16 % eMotion has a ~ 9.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 0.19 % Bunny has a ~ 8.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.07 %
Also the results of the WCS EU Group that was played today with Mvp, Bunny, MMA, and Vortix. Vortix went from ~ 15.26% up to ~ 40.81 % MMA went from ~ 24.02 % up to ~ 33 % Mvp went from ~ 29.79 $ down to ~ 12.55 % Bunny went from ~ 8.36 % down to ~ 3.83 %
Vortix is also now the top foreign hope! VortiX ~ 5.52 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 40.78 % chance overall. Snute ~ 2.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 21.40 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 2.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.40 % chance overall. Nerchio ~ 1.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.63 % chance overall. NaNiwa ~ 1.11 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 11.31 % chance overall. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Mar 13 4:05am GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Katowice Open Bracket Preview and GSL Quarterfinals Preview! I also made a slight change to the Possible Tournament Winners section.
- Jaedong is at ~ 33.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.28 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.19 %. ~ 15.72 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 27.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - scoobers is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 15.72 % of the time scoobers wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 84.28 % of the time scoobers loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- JYP is at ~ 0.18 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.28 % of the time JYP wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.18 %. ~ 51.72 % of the time JYP loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0.16 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.72 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.17 %. ~ 48.28 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
- HasuObs is at ~ 4.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.06 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.07 %. ~ 31.94 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.31 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParanOid is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.94 % of the time ParanOid wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 68.06 % of the time ParanOid loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Leenock is at ~ 3.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 90.38 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.11 %. ~ 9.62 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - funkay is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 9.62 % of the time funkay wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 90.38 % of the time funkay loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- HyuN is at ~ 42.80 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.79 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 43.24 %. ~ 10.21 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 38.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Forte is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 10.21 % of the time Forte wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 89.79 % of the time Forte loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Nerchio is at ~ 13.86 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.69 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 14.27 %. ~ 23.31 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DieStar is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 23.31 % of the time DieStar wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 76.69 % of the time DieStar loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Tefel is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.03 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 40.97 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.97 % of the time uThermal wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 59.03 % of the time uThermal loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Dear is at ~ 26.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 80.48 % of the time Dear wins and their chances go up to ~ 27.86 %. ~ 19.52 % of the time Dear loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - okai is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.52 % of the time okai wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 80.48 % of the time okai loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
herO has a ~ 13.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 95.75 % to ~ 100.00 % jjakji has a ~ 11.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 89.15 % to ~ 100.00 % San has a ~ 11.20 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100.00 % sOs has a ~ 11.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 61.44 % to ~ 99.90 % Polt has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.19 % to ~ 100.00 % StarDust has a ~ 8.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 79.33 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 5.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 68.38 % to ~ 100.00 % NaNiwa has a ~ 5.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.91 % to ~ 75.96 % MC has a ~ 5.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 76.98 % to ~ 100.00 % HerO has a ~ 4.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 65.19 % to ~ 100.00 % TaeJa has a ~ 4.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 54.79 % to ~ 99.51 % Dear has a ~ 1.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 26.49 % to ~ 100.00 % Jaedong has a ~ 1.40 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.19 % to ~ 99.95 % Oz has a ~ 1.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.44 % to ~ 94.82 % HyuN has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.80 % to ~ 99.50 % Rogue has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.67 % to ~ 12.67 % Revival has a ~ 0.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 94.07 % HasuObs has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.83 % to ~ 66.41 % Leenock has a ~ 0.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.06 % to ~ 55.91 % Nerchio has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.86 % to ~ 94.98 % Tefel has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.60 % MaNa has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 4.89 % JYP has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 5.49 % uThermal has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % DieStar has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % ParanOid has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 %
sOs has the #1 headband! - sOs is at ~ 61.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.03 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.31 %. ~ 50.97 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 48.10 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 33.43 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.97 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 48.05 %. ~ 49.03 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 18.22 %.
- Rain is at ~ 43.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.70 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 61.03 %. ~ 58.30 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 95.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.30 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.27 %. ~ 41.70 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 90.84 %.
- Life is at ~ 68.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.74 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 80.37 %. ~ 40.26 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 50.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 18.14 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.26 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.87 %. ~ 59.74 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.89 %.
- PartinG is at ~ 41.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.58 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 52.04 %. ~ 34.42 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 9.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.42 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.83 %. ~ 65.58 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.93 %.
herO has a ~ 19.40 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 95.75 % to ~ 100.00 % PartinG has a ~ 18.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.57 % to ~ 99.76 % sOs has a ~ 14.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 61.44 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 14.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 68.38 % to ~ 100.00 % Zest has a ~ 13.50 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.43 % to ~ 99.73 % Rain has a ~ 9.90 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 43.77 % to ~ 100.00 % Maru has a ~ 6.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.14 % to ~ 99.58 % soO has a ~ 3.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.06 % to ~ 99.30 %
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--------UPDATE Tuesday, Mar 11 8:15pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Katowice World Championships Added! Added IEM Katowice along with the open bracket and the full player listings for both. The brackets are not set yet for the round of 16, but they are set for the open bracket. Right now the open bracket matches are not showing up in the upcoming matches highlight yet because they are unscheduled in Liquipedia, so WCS Predictor does not automatically show them. Later I will be able to manually put them in if they are still unscheduled. Here are the players' chances for winning + Show Spoiler +
herO has a ~ 13.97 % chance to win. San has a ~ 11.38 % chance to win. sOs has a ~ 11.16 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 10.56 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 9.09 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 8.66 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. NaNiwa has a ~ 5.46 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win. HerO has a ~ 4.86 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 4.56 % chance to win. Dear has a ~ 1.75 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 1.42 % chance to win. Oz has a ~ 1.28 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win. Rogue has a ~ 0.99 % chance to win. Revival has a ~ 0.81 % chance to win. Leenock has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. Nerchio has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. HasuObs has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. Tefel has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. MaNa has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. JYP has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. uThermal has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. DieStar has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. ParanOid has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. okai has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win.
- Polt is at ~ 86.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 78.32 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 91.80 %. ~ 21.68 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 67.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 1.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.07 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.74 %. ~ 63.93 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Minigun is at ~ 2.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.99 % of the time Minigun wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.16 %. ~ 44.01 % of the time Minigun loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.40 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.61 % of the time neeb wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.92 %. ~ 70.39 % of the time neeb loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.18 %.
- PartinG is at ~ 27.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.97 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.89 %. ~ 42.03 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 13.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rain is at ~ 29.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.98 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 46.30 %. ~ 53.02 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 14.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.00 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.74 %. ~ 53.00 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 23.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.05 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.40 %. ~ 51.95 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.71 %.
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--------UPDATE Friday, Mar 07 1:35am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Round of 16 set! WCS EU Premier round of 16 has been set. Here are the group previews as they appear right now.
- Mvp is at ~ 36.48 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.44 % of the time Mvp wins and their chances go up to ~ 45.62 %. ~ 34.56 % of the time Mvp loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.18 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 25.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.03 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 36.49 %. ~ 45.97 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 13.50 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 18.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.66 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.22 %. ~ 55.34 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 11.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.87 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 21.31 %. ~ 64.13 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.92 %.
- jjakji is at ~ 81.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 77.44 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 88.02 %. ~ 22.56 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 59.46 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 19.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.02 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.20 %. ~ 54.98 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 3.94 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.13 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.90 %. ~ 69.87 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.80 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 7.70 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.41 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 12.76 %. ~ 52.59 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.14 %.
- BabyKnight is at ~ 4.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.74 % of the time BabyKnight wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.05 %. ~ 68.26 % of the time BabyKnight loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 16.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.27 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.34 %. ~ 60.73 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 26.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.51 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 35.51 %. ~ 39.49 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 65.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.48 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.94 %. ~ 31.52 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 43.20 %.
- Nerchio is at ~ 14.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.58 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 24.89 %. ~ 62.42 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 64.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.41 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 78.09 %. ~ 40.59 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 44.79 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.70 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.69 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.95 %. ~ 31.31 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 7.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.31 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.34 %. ~ 65.69 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.80 %.
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--------UPDATE Friday, Feb 28 5:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 set! With the round of 16 groups set, everyone always asks which is the group of death. Let's see how the groups affected players' chances. The biggest changes since the previous update, of course, comes from the players in the last group. ParalyzE and Stats were both knocked out, with ParalyzE going from ~ 1.88% chances for the year down to ~ 0.67% and Stats from ~ 1.74% down to ~ 0.81% for the year. The favorites, Curious and RorO, were the ones to advance, with Curious going from ~ 10.26% to ~ 13.72% and RorO going from ~ 6.33% to ~ 8.05%.
We can try to identify the group of death in terms of the changes in chances to win GSL Season 1.
Group A is little harder to analyze because RorO and Curious had big changes due to their wins. sOs went from ~ 9.92% to ~ 10.54% Life went from ~ 7.94% to ~ 8.14% Curious went from ~ 2.24% to ~ 3.59% RorO went from ~ 1.5% to ~ 2.24% This is a total change of ~ +2.91% (excluding Curious and RorO it's ~ +0.82%), and the total chances to win Code S for this group is now ~ 24.51%.
Group B had every player's chances to win Code S go down, except for Dear who went up slightly. Zest went from ~ 9.38% to ~ 8.8% Soulkey went from ~ 6.57% to ~ 5.99% Dear went from ~ 5.63% to ~ 5.74% Maru went from ~ 3.57% to ~ 3.27% For a total change of ~ -1.35%, and the total chances of winning Code S for this group is ~ 23.8%.
Every player in Group C had their chances to win Code S go down upon the drawing of the groups. Parting went from ~ 10.6% to ~ 10.5% Rain went from ~ 7.32% to ~ 6.7% Classic went from ~ 6.3% to ~ 6.07% Squirtle went from ~ 5.94% to ~ 5.83% For a total change of ~ -1.06%, and the total chances of winning Code S for this group is ~ 29.1%.
And then we have Group D. herO went from ~ 14.7% to ~ 15.06% Bbyong went from ~ 3.33% to ~ 3.21% Trap went from ~ 2.59% to ~ 2.78% soO went from ~ 1.59% to ~ 1.54% For a total change of ~ +0.38%, and the total chances of winning Code S for this group is ~ 22.59%.
So in terms of the change in chances, Group B players were hurt most by the group selections, but Group C has the highest total chances of winning Code S and also has all 4 players being hurt by the group selections. I'm going to give the edge to Group C and say it's the real group of death. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 26 5:15pm GMT (GMT+00:00) FULL YEAR SIMULATIONS! Now simulating the full year, with WCS AM/EU/KR Seasons 1,2, and 3 with qualifiers. Also added TeSL Seasons 3 and 4 with qualifiers, and the TWOP (I kinda had to guess on some things for TWOP for now). Here's a preview for tonight's WCS AM Premier group! Starts in + Show Spoiler [Bomber, Jaedong, Arthur, Has in WCS AM…] +
- Bomber is at ~ 32.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.29 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.21 %. ~ 41.71 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 59.20 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.86 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 72.10 %. ~ 37.14 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 15.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.54 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.24 %. ~ 46.46 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.25 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Has is at ~ 5.51 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.31 % of the time Has wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.70 %. ~ 74.69 % of the time Has loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.73 %.
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--------UPDATE Thursday, Feb 13 9:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Cologne round of 16 groups set! With the open brackets completed, the IEM Cologne round of 16 groups have been set. Stardust now holds the #2 headband in Group C. + Show Spoiler [IEM Ro16 Predictions] +
- Rain is at ~ 47.17 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 55.86 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 61.63 %. ~ 44.14 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 28.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HerO is at ~ 47.50 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 50.06 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 57.77 %. ~ 49.94 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 37.29 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 45.39 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 49.68 %. ~ 54.61 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 26.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ForGG is at ~ 74.02 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 48.69 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 93.31 %. ~ 51.31 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 55.73 %.
- jjakji is at ~ 85.35 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 68.34 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 95.24 %. ~ 31.66 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 64.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - qxc is at ~ 0.10 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 12.41 % of the time qxc wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.84 %. ~ 87.59 % of the time qxc loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 10.67 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 62.89 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.96 %. ~ 37.11 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dear is at ~ 92.95 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 56.36 % of the time Dear wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.86 %. ~ 43.64 % of the time Dear loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.02 %.
StarDust has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Polt is at ~ 71.45 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 61.05 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 82.59 %. ~ 38.95 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 53.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 22.40 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.86 %. ~ 77.60 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 59.45 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 59.51 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.66 %. ~ 40.49 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 41.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 77.62 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 57.04 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 93.33 %. ~ 42.96 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 56.75 %.
- MC is at ~ 92.97 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 54.92 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.86 %. ~ 45.08 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 8.41 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 63.53 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.23 %. ~ 36.47 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 24.10 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 51.60 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 33.56 %. ~ 48.40 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HeRoMaRinE is at ~ 1.07 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 29.96 % of the time HeRoMaRinE wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.57 %. ~ 70.04 % of the time HeRoMaRinE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Squirtle is at ~ 14.88 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 61.89 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 24.03 %. ~ 38.11 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 13.45 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 59.29 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.68 %. ~ 40.71 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pet is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 28.64 % of the time Pet wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.94 %. ~ 71.36 % of the time Pet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sora is at ~ 9.45 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 50.18 % of the time Sora wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.83 %. ~ 49.82 % of the time Sora loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
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--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 12 12:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Cologne predictions and GSL Code S Group C completed! IEM Cologne has been added to the upcoming matches highlights. San vs HasuObs is a match for the #2 headband! + Show Spoiler [IEM Predictions] +
- MC is at ~ 68.66 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 72.89 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 72.47 %. ~ 27.11 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 58.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revenge is at ~ 0.00 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 27.11 % of the time Revenge wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 72.89 % of the time Revenge loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
San has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - San is at ~ 99.96 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 64.84 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.97 %. ~ 35.16 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.94 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HasuObs is at ~ 8.08 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 35.16 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.78 %. ~ 64.84 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.16 %.
- StarDust is at ~ 61.20 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 72.60 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 65.55 %. ~ 27.40 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 49.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.57 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 27.40 % of the time Miniraser wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.75 %. ~ 72.60 % of the time Miniraser loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.50 %.
- TLO is at ~ 29.00 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 69.81 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.36 %. ~ 30.19 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 23.56 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HaNfy is at ~ 0.00 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 30.19 % of the time HaNfy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 69.81 % of the time HaNfy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- HyuN is at ~ 30.62 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 79.00 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.71 %. ~ 21.00 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 26.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Tarrantius is at ~ 0.00 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 21.00 % of the time Tarrantius wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 79.00 % of the time Tarrantius loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- viOLet is at ~ 1.21 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 51.79 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.93 %. ~ 48.21 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.44 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Tefel is at ~ 0.24 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 48.21 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.41 %. ~ 51.79 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.07 %.
- Leenock is at ~ 0.40 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 48.66 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.72 %. ~ 51.34 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.04 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 51.34 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 48.66 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
- Grubby is at ~ 5.13 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 40.69 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.40 %. ~ 59.31 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 4.33 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 59.31 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.38 %. ~ 40.69 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.35 %.
-----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 12 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Premier ro32 groups set! WCS EU Premier round of 32 groups have been set. Zest went up by almost 6% over the previous update just because of the increase in his aligulac rating, especially vs Protoss, which should be the most important rating for GSL this season. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Feb 09 11:20pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Player List Finalized! The IEM Cologne player list, groups, and open bracket have been finalized. Due to the simulation no longer needing to pull random players to fill unannounced slots for any tournament this greatly reduces the number of players with over 0% chances. Right now there are only 104 players with over 0% chances for season 1.
Times are all shown in your local time, if you mouse over a time on the page(not in a graph, right now the only one is the time for "using results from") then it will show how long ago it was or a countdown for it. Countdowns are now kept updated in real time, if you mouse over a countdown it will show the date/time in your local timezone.
Restricted how far out the green and red dashes for upcoming matches on player chances history graphs goes to 5 days, the actual date/time of the match is shown when you mouse over. This was making the graph look really dumb on puCK's page for example, where his next match isn't for another 31 days.
Reduced the number of duplicate events about upcoming matches shown on a player page. For example an upcoming match with Life vs Innovation, you would see in their events "If Life wins...","If Life loses...","If Innovation wins...", and "If Innovation loses...", I reduced it to show only the ones for the current player. This only affects singular events and not grouped events.
Changed the teams summed percentage graph to group into Original KESPA and Original ESF instead of current. This is per team and not per player, so Trap counts for IM which is Original ESF.
Players with ~0% (0 times qualified in all the samples) chances are no longer shown on the front page to reduce load times by about 50%. Under the players table there is a link to the full list.
Also the columns on the players table have been reordered. They are now in the order of: team, player, chances, aligulac rating, country, race, min points, mode points.
-----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Feb 07 2:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Challenger Completed, IEM Player List Updated! Updated with WCS EU Challenger completed, and the current IEM Cologne player list. You can see the IEM update hurt foreign hopes a little bit. With his announcement of being at IEM, TLO now takes the spot for top foreign hope away from Naniwa. Also Classic and Polt seem to have gone down in chances due to the strong list of players now going to IEM, both losing over 6%.
Also with this update Protoss has surpassed the 50% mark on the summed percentages per race! Now at 51.6%. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Feb 02 5:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Features! After the completion of ASUS and IEM I added a few new features.
-Changed the foreigner hope graph to show #+ foreigners instead of # of foreigners. So now you see the chances for 1+ foreigners, 2+ foreigners, etc. I think this looks better than before. (Thanks KillerDucky!)
-Added flags on the probabilities graphs for players and foreigner hope to show big events that happened that could've changed the probabilities. Right now there are only flags for the completion of IEM and ASUS, but later I could even have events for me changing things like "Special Previously Unannounced Tournament 7 added to simulation".
-I added headband and upcoming matches info to the player pages.
-Also to the player pages, I added green and red dashes on their probability graphs to show the expected results of a win or loss in their next upcoming match. The size of the dash is relative to how probable the event is. See sOs for a good example. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=110 -----------------------
--------UPDATE Saturday, Feb 01 10:20pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM and ASUS Completed! With this update we finally have some reasonably secured top spots for the season, with San and CJ herO winning they both are at over 99.8% to be top 16 for season 1. San gets an additional bonus taking away the #2 headband, keeping it away from the GSL and sOs. San's next match will be against Elfi in WCS EU Challenger, with how his PvP is looking it seems likely that he will defend the #2 headband and move on to Premier league.
Also in this update, Protoss is nearing the 50% mark on the summed percentages graph, with 48.35%. Foreigners only lost a little bit of hope as the chance of at least 1 foreigner making the top 16 for the season went from 99.27% earlier today down to 98.77%. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Saturday, Feb 01 1:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM ro8 half completed, ASUS ro16 completed! In this update we saw the first headband transfer, with Life beating Jaedong to take the #2 headband. We also see some big changes in chances looking at the biggest winners and losers sections. Dear, ForGG, StarDust, MC, and jjakji being the 5 biggest winners with gains over 13%, Dear gained a huge 28.95% after a tough group. The biggest losers are TaeJa, Bbyong, HerO, NaNiwa, and Solar losing about 12% to 19%, except TaeJa who lost 30.4%.
Keep an eye on the upcoming matches section as we have many important matches coming up this weekend (highlighted in pink or red), and another match for the #2 headband (highlighted in silver) where Life will be attempting to defend against San. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 31 8:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM ro16 completed,ASUS ro32 completed! Look out for Jaedong's match at ASUS ROG, this is a match for the #2 headband! Can Jaedong continue to defend his #2 headband? Jaedong got the #2 headband for getting 2nd place at Blizzcon 2013. Whoever beats the #2 headband holder takes the #2 headband from them. Here is the explanation of headbands that I posted before - + Show Spoiler [Headbands] +
I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals).
Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband.
Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points). If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband.
sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S. If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
With the disbanding of ESF, I'm thinking of changing the pie chart for teams to be categorized into Original KESPA, Original ESF, and Other. Currently it is categorized into KESPA, ESF, and Other. This will still be by team and not by player, so Innovation would count for Other not for Original KESPA, and Trap would count for Original ESF.
I'm also going to add a section for each tournament, to show the probabilities for each player to win it (thanks Yakikorosu!) And I still need to add the WCS Points min/mode, and the event markers on the probability graphs. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 31 12:35am GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM Groups A and B Completed, WCS AM Premier Groups Set, GSL Code S Groups Set! Also a new font! ASUS ROG is counting the cancellations of Naniwa and Bischu.
Look out for Jaedong's match at ASUS ROG, this is a match for the #2 headband! Jaedong got the #2 headband for getting 2nd place at Blizzcon 2013. Whoever beats the #2 headband holder takes the #2 headband from them. Here is the explanation of headbands that I posted before - + Show Spoiler [Headbands] +
I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals).
Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband.
Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points). If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband.
sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S. If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
With the disbanding of ESF, I'm thinking of changing the pie chart for teams to be categorized into Original KESPA, Original ESF, and Other. Currently it is categorized into KESPA, ESF, and Other. This will still be by team and not by player, so Innovation would count for Other not for Original KESPA, and Trap would count for Original ESF.
I'm also going to add a section for each tournament, to show the probabilities for each player to win it (thanks Yakikorosu!) And I still need to add the WCS Points min/mode, and the event markers on the probability graphs. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 30 6:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM Group A Completed, WCS AM Challenger Completed, GSL Code S Groups Set! It seems the biggest loser resulting from the Code S groups is Solar, who got a way harder than average group with Rain, herO, and DongRaeGu. Solar went from 21.52% in the previous update down to 18.26% in this update.
I also added borders and text in the upcoming matches section for headband matches, check out Jaedong's upcoming match in ASUS for an example of a #2 headband match. #1 headband match will be similar but with a gold border instead of silver. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jan 29 4:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00)GSL Wildcards Completed! The GSL Wildcards have been completed, check out the difference it made for the winner http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=1642
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jan 29 7:25am GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM and GSL Wildcards! Added IEM to the upcoming matched list. It was in the simulation before, just didn't have the date/time for it. Also added the GSL Wildcards to the simulation, for replacing Jjakji. This currently has the round of 12 completed. http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Global_StarCraft_II_League_Season_1/Code_A#Wildcard_Tournament Notice the big winners from this, and how their graph shoots up lol. Sleep, Cure, Paralyze, Gumiho, Dream, and Stork.
I also added some icons, made player names have tooltips and be links, and touched up the player pages a little bit. -----------------------
Added the Foreigner Hope section. It has a line graph showing the chances of having different numbers of foreigners in the top 16 for the season. You can show more lines by clicking on the key for them at the bottom of the graph, and you can also zoom on this graph. The graph is just a straight line for now since nothing has changed yet (I just added this in tonight).
Added the Foreigner Hope section. It has a line graph showing the chances of having different numbers of foreigners in the top 16 for the season. You can show more lines by clicking on the key for them at the bottom of the graph, and you can also zoom on this graph. The graph is just a straight line for now since nothing has changed yet (I just added this in tonight).
I also added red and pink borders around important upcoming matches, where red is more important than pink. These are matches that are determined to happen often enough and cause a big enough difference to both players.
I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals).
Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband.
Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points). If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband.
sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S. If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
I also added biggest winners and biggest losers. It looks back 5 days before the newest simulation. So if the current simulation is 2 days old, then it will compare to a simulation at least 7 days old.
I also changed summed percentage graphs changed to be out of 100% instead of out of 1600% to avoid confusion.
Also added liquidpedia scraping to ASUS ROG, so now those matches show up in the upcoming matches section. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 24 4:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Code A Finished! GSL Code A is now finished. Jjakji is currently a walkover in Code S. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 24 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Challenger updates! And ASUS groups! WCS EU Challenger finished with days 1, 2 and 3, WCS AM Challenger finished with days 1 and 2, GSL Code A done with groups A-J. Also set the groups for ASUS ROG, and made the teams pie chart color coded. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 23 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Challenger updates! And more graphs! WCS AM/EU finished with days 1 and 2,GSL Code A done with groups A-J. Also set the groups for IEM Sao Paulo, and Life replacing Vortix at ASUS. I added a graph for summed probabilities for the teams, grouped by KESPA, ESF (only 2 teams now...), and Other. Also added a graph for summed probabilities for different countries, which I think works better as a bar graph rather than a pie chart. Koreans are at ~1207% while foreigners are at ~ 393%, think of this as a preview for the Foreigner Hope Rating. You can zoom on this graph, just click and drag. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Jan 19 2:16am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU/AM Challenger Matches set! WCS EU/AM matches set, along with the liquipedia scraping for them, so they will now show up in the upcoming matches. I also enabled zooming for the probabilities graphs for players, just click and drag. Check out the initial testing for upcoming match consequences if you haven't already. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page, this will probably be done tonight. You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match. Here is an example on Innovation's page. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48 -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 4:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D,E,F results in! Added in results from GSL Code A Group E. Check out the initial testing for upcoming match consequences if you haven't already. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page. You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match. Here is an example on Innovation's page. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48 -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 8:03am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D,F results in! Added in results from GSL Code A Group F. Some initial testing for upcoming match consequences. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page. You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match. Here is an example on Innovation's page. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48 -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 1:50am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D results in! Added in results from GSL Code A Groups C and D. I also have it now searching for events for even lower chance players. Before it wasn't searching for events for players with less than 0.5% chance, but now the cutoff is 0.05%. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 16 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Challenger League matches set, GSL Code A Group A and B results in! Sorry about the delay, had some mysql issues earlier today. I added some scraping of liquipedia to get results for matches instead of adding them manually. GSL Code A now automatically pulls the results from liquipedia. I especially needed this for getting the dates and times for each match in order to properly handle upcoming match highlights, headbands, and achievements. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jan 14 5:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) All WCS Qualifiers completed! Also full player list for ASUS! Finalized WCS Qualifications. Code A has the groups drawn, the other regions don't yet. WCS EU has Mvp replacing duckdeok and Lucifron out. For WCS AM they haven't announced what they're doing with the 49th player in Challenger, so I bumped Taeja up to Premier since he had the most WCS Points from last year in AM (EU did the same thing with Mvp replacing duckdeok). Also full player list for ASUS is in. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Jan 12 9:22am GMT (GMT+00:00) More WCS Qualifiers! Added results for a bunch of WCS Qualifiers that happened today. The only qualifiers left are the ladder wildcards for AM and EU. Also I fixed it so Jjakji is now a walkover in GSL since he's playing in WCS EU now. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 09 12:45am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Qualifiers and IEM update! Added results from the GSL qualifiers, IEM Cologne, and IEM Sao Paulo. The IEM tournaments needed some random players to fill the slots, I weighted the random selection towards players with an Aligulac rating over 1200. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Jan 06 12:10am GMT (GMT+00:00) More WCS AM/EU Qualifiers update! Added current results from WCS AM and EU qualifiers, they still are not completed yet. This includes 12 players qualified for WCS EU. For WCS AM this includes 12 American players qualified and 3 Chinese. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Dec 31 6:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Qualifiers update and ASUS! I just added in the current results of the WCS AM Taiwan/Hong Kong/Macau qualifiers with Ian, Fist, AK, and Slam. On the graph you can see Slam's chances went up by almost 10 times! http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=437
I also added in ASUS ROG Winter with the currently announced 24 players, and the remaining 8 filled at random. On the graph you can see how much this helped especially Jaedong http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=73
Looks like I'm gonna have to get the headband stuff working before ASUS since Jaedong will be there. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Dec 13 7:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) MORE GRAPHS ALSO GSL! http://sc2.4ever.tv/ I added a pie chart at the top of the home page showing the sum of the percentages for each race. This is definitely the most legit way to judge the balance of the game. I also added the GSL (Code S, Code A, and qualifiers) to the simulation! Since the full details of the format have not been announced yet I had to make some guesses. I also changed it to look for the top 16 as it should instead of the top 4 I was using for testing. The events still aren't very interesting yet because each player has only 1 tournament they can earn points through right now.
--------UPDATE Thursday, Dec 12 6:33am GMT (GMT+00:00) GRAPHS! http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=89 The graph shows the probability the player had from previous simulations. Obviously right now it looks crazy because of all the test simulations I've been doing.
Also I got WCS EU in the simulation now, including the qualifiers. Not sure how the next GSL is going to work so I don't think I can do that yet.
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Dec 11 2:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WEBSITE PREVIEW I got the simulation now working with WCS AM, including premier, challenger, and challenger qualifiers, even simulating the soft region lock
Here is the preview website that is maybe 1% done, please don't complain about how ugly it is yet, and all the tournament data is fake. The simulation results are real though. http://sc2.4ever.tv/ Clicking on a player in the list will show the different events that affect them.
I also have the simulation working with incremental updates, so you can view the updated results within just a few minutes of me starting the simulation, and the results will continue to be refined for later viewing. --------------------------
Yes, I have been working on the next version of the "Blizzcon Qualification Probabilities Simulation", I like the new name better. But there's more that's changing than just the name! Here's a bit of a preview (note: the timing of this is completely random and does not have to do with anything else going on).
Here are some of the changes that are planned.
1. It will no longer be just a thread post with fancy BBCode, it will now be a website allowing you to browse and filter players' chances and the different events that could affect their chances. I will also show a graph for each player showing how their chances have changed over time, with major events that changed their chances highlighted and labeled on the graph.
2. Much more thorough simulation featuring Code A/Challenger league, proper simulation of different formats including double elimination, and maybe even qualifiers.
3. This one will be way better optimized, my goal is to do over 100 20 million samples(aka simulations) instead of just 15 million. (ok, 100 million was a lot considering a full year, and the possibility of random players qualifying for WCS, my cpu just isn't fast enough, will try to optimize further though)
4. A year is a long time, not all of the tournaments will be announced ahead of time and anything can happen. Therefore the focus will be on the chances that players will make it into the top 16 WCS points by the end of the current season. I will also show their chances for the year overall.
5. Achievement tracking for players in tournaments that give WCS points. I need some help here because I'm not very creative lol. But some examples could be like winning 2 premier leagues in a row(Polt would've won this), wins streaks(like 10 wins in a row), ending a win streak(beat a player that was on a 10 win streak), winning premier league in 2 different regions(like winning WCS KR and WCS AM in the same year). Suggestions are welcome, and the achievements also need cool names!
And I have some other things planned that are secrets for now.
And here is the current source code! Well most of it. http://4ever.tv/wcs_predictor_2014/ Keep in mind this code is made to be highly optimized and not really in the best style. There's no way I would normally use this many templates lol. Some of the libraries and debugging tools are things I wrote myself, you can just ignore that.
updated the source code, basically finished up the code for grouping the events and counting up the event groups I think next up is getting it to scrape results automatically from liquipedia, scraping player ratings from aligulac, and then saving results in the database. After all that I can start working on the website to view the predictions.
Updated the code with aligulac scraping, and threading. Need to split the players better for threading of the event grouping and counting still. After running some tests, I can simulate about 600,000 tournaments(ASUS ROG) per second on my cpu, not counting the time to group and count the events for each player.
Did some work on the website, specifically the list of events for each player. Do you guys think this is a good way to present/format the info, or can you think of a better way? http://sc2.4ever.tv/
On December 10 2013 15:15 slowbacontron wrote: I like jjakji at #3 But why is his rating at 1855 instead of 1877? When did you pull the ratings from Aligulac ?
On December 10 2013 15:18 slowbacontron wrote: Yeah, my desktop's having an issue where it doesn't show the updated ratings unless you physically F5 the page :/ sorry about that.
are you using Internet Explorer? firefox and chrome don't usually have that issue
On December 10 2013 15:18 slowbacontron wrote: Yeah, my desktop's having an issue where it doesn't show the updated ratings unless you physically F5 the page :/ sorry about that.
are you using Internet Explorer? firefox and chrome don't usually have that issue
I got the simulation now working with WCS AM, including premier, challenger, and challenger qualifiers, even simulating the soft region lock http://sc2.4ever.tv/
I got WCS EU showing up on the stats. Working on WCS KR right now, just confused about the new Code A format.
On December 12 2013 13:03 Die4Ever wrote: I'm looking at the picture graph for how GSL will work. I'm confused about Code A.
Did they stop doing brackets entirely and just do groups for all of Code A? How do they determine the "12 old [players] who had good results from season 3 2103"? Do we have a list of players currently in Code A?
I guess Code S is the same, and should have Dear, Trap, jjakji, Maru, Soulkey, Rain, soO, and Parting right now.
The graph shows the probability the player had from previous simulations. Obviously right now it looks crazy because of all the test simulations I've been doing.
The graph shows the probability the player had from previous simulations. Obviously right now it looks crazy because of all the test simulations I've been doing.
Sweet! Have your site bookmarked now, will make it a lot easier to follow the overall picture.
The graph shows the probability the player had from previous simulations. Obviously right now it looks crazy because of all the test simulations I've been doing.
Sweet! Have your site bookmarked now, will make it a lot easier to follow the overall picture.
Thanks! Do you guys think I should put a graph on the front page? Maybe a pie chart showing the total percentages for each race/country/team?
Updated the OP, added GSL to the simulation and that pie chart of the races on the home page. Also changed it to top 16 qualify instead of top 4 I was using for testing.
On December 13 2013 16:05 Die4Ever wrote: Updated the OP, added GSL to the simulation and that pie chart of the races on the home page. Also changed it to top 16 qualify instead of top 4 I was using for testing.
On December 15 2013 00:36 Skynx wrote: Mıght be off topıc but gz on your [L's TLCMAT] group
Thanks! Trying to think of some things I can add to help with my round of 16 matches. I have a ton of ideas but most of them won't be interesting until WCS starts up again and matches start being played.
Ok guys, I need to know which way of displaying the events is better. In Events Table A the events are displayed as before, in Events Table B only single events are shown and you click on one of them to expand it and show more details of other things that can happen along with it.
Guys, more people need to vote for Die4Ever in the LCMAT tournament (link in the previous post). If he's out of the tournament, these great updates might stop coming.
On December 19 2013 01:22 FFW_Rude wrote: Hey you still have duckdeok. You should add a retired player list in order to not have them in the predictions
Then again, TheBest is playing again, and Stephano plays sometimes too. Maybe I should just give retired players reduced chances.
On December 19 2013 01:22 FFW_Rude wrote: Hey you still have duckdeok. You should add a retired player list in order to not have them in the predictions
Then again, TheBest is playing again, and Stephano plays sometimes too. Maybe I should just give retired players reduced chances.
Maybe. But i don't know how you can calculate this.
On December 18 2013 11:52 Die4Ever wrote: Ok guys, I need to know which way of displaying the events is better. In Events Table A the events are displayed as before, in Events Table B only single events are shown and you click on one of them to expand it and show more details of other things that can happen along with it.
Happy holidays tournament fans, if you like all this content from Die4Ever, go vote for him in Lichter's LCMAT tournament here, he's trailing by only a few votes. The further he goes in the tournament, the more motivation he'll have to keep on adding content which we can all enjoy next year.
I just added in the current results of the WCS AM Taiwan/Hong Kong/Macau qualifiers with Ian, Fist, AK, and Slam. On the graph you can see Slam's chances went up by almost 10 times! http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=437
I also added in ASUS ROG Winter with the currently announced 24 players, and the remaining 8 filled at random. On the graph you can see how much this helped especially Jaedong http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=73
Looks like I'm gonna have to get the headband stuff working before ASUS since Jaedong will be there.
Updated with current results of WCS EU and AM qualifiers. This includes 12 players qualified for WCS EU. For WCS AM this includes 12 American players qualified and 3 Chinese.
Updated with results from GSL qualifiers. Also added both IEM tournaments for the season with it pulling random players to fill them. It is weighted to choose players with over a 1200 Aligulac rating more often, but it will give every player on the list a chance.
I just slightly changed the home page to show the top 15 predicted players' percentages in green, the 16th player's percentage in blue, and the rest in red. It used to just show green for over 30% and red for under 30%.
Just updated. Added results for a bunch of WCS Qualifiers that happened today. The only qualifiers left are the ladder wildcards for AM and EU. Also I fixed it so Jjakji is now a walkover in GSL since he's playing in WCS EU now.
On November 28 2013 13:45 lichter wrote: Die4Ever doesn't get an img thingy coz he didn't want to give me his skype. bastard
WCS was pretty hard to follow, with all those WCS points to look at. Fortunately, we had Die4Ever's WCS Predictor. Without it, we would have had a much harder time following the tournament, and a harder time in wondering if our favorite players could make it to Blizzcon. I investigated whether or not this was the work of a wizard, and if he is secretly evil (he's probably not guys).
lichter:Hi! How does it feel to make it all the way to the Round of 8? As one of the lower seeds it must be pretty exhilarating.
Die4Ever: Haha yea, it's pretty amazing to be on the top 8, I will need to continue working on the WCS Predictor for my fans. I still have some secret plans for it.
You've received a lot of fanfare because of WCS Predictor. Wanna tell the fans your backstory making it? Is it just a hobby or related to your work?
Well I am a professional programmer, I never get to program fun things at work though lol. The old Blizzcon Predictor started as an idea to make automated previews for tournaments, and I was really excited for Blizzcon since I was going to be there for the first time(which was awesome btw).
The new one is a website that will be much better, easier to work on for me, and will have more features. For example in the old one I never fully simulated Code A or Challenger Leagues, since they would've been a pain to program. In WCS Predictor 2014 I'm already simulating Code A and Challenger Leagues, and even the qualifiers with the appropriate region locking.
I'm also planning on having some fun extras since the program already is going to have all the current results for matches and other info. I'm thinking achievements for players like win streaks, upcoming match highlights on the front page and how they will affect players' chances, maybe some other things.
I also have this 1 idea, I guess I'll leak it here.
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro_samurai#Plot It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
That sounds pretty awesome. Have you ever tried contacting Blizzard about your predictor? I'm sure they'd be interested in seeing something like that!
I've tweeted it to @Blizzcon and @Starcraft before but no response lol not even a retweet.
That is mega balls. I guess Blizz doesn't like it when someone shows them up. You work with numbers a lot. Any interesting revelations, patterns, or statistics that you've stumbled upon in your work?
Koreans own white dudes.
Also a single season of Code S has I think about 137 billion ways it can play out, so doing millions of simulations is really important for accuracy. Not all of the 137 billion outcomes are significant, like a player making 24th place instead of 32nd place doesn't mean much. The great thing about monte carlo style simulations is that it doesn't need to see every outcome to get pretty accurate probabilities.
In a single season getting 8th place doesn't really do much for a player either, but with the new version doing the overall year, an 8th place will be huge for that player with them being safe in Code S for the next season.
I knew that everyone wanted the new simulations to be up immediately after a match and be accurate lol. So the new version is built to do incremental simulations. It does blocks of 1 million samples/simulations (that number is adjustable) and when you refresh the page (if I'm running it) you can actually see the number of samples going up. The first block is the one where it looks for all the events that help/hurt the players and the other blocks are just for counting and refining the accuracy, so the first block takes the longest.This means I can have a new update on the page after a match in less than 10 minutes, and then after an hour you'll see like 20 million samples for really high accuracy.
You're lucky that we're all nerds on TL; this would go unnoticed in other communities I'm sure. What made you decide to go through all this work for the SC2 Community?
Well I enjoy programming, I mostly did it for fun. I did feel a sense of duty to do the updates after each big match though. Also some of the features were purely for the fans, like the foreigner hope rating and the upcoming match effects. For the new version I plan on it being able to automatically get the new results from liquipedia and start a new update, just in case I'm away or sleeping. It's really great to see all the fans I have gotten though, they're the reason why I'm making the new one so much more polished, I never find fun in polishing programs or making websites look good, all the fun for me is in the problem solving of programming and optimization.
It sounds to me like you're a wizard. Wizards scare me. Have you ever used your powers for evil? With great power comes great responsibility. A dead guy once said this.
Hmm once me and a friend wrote a program back in high school that when run on just 1 computer would print to all the printers in the school. It was like 200 printers or so.
I also once wrote a program as a prank for someone at work, it faked typos by detecting what keys you're pressing and if you were typing fast enough then it would type a letter near the key you pressed, and it would also adjust the mouse speed if you were moving the mouse fast enough, and sometimes swap the mouse buttons. It even had a remote control so I could adjust how hard it would mess with him.
That sounds deliciously evil. Kinda makes your name, Die4Ever, make more sense. Are you dying for someone named Ever, dying forever, are you giving Ever a die, or is it something far more sinister than that?
I came up with the name when I was like 12 lol, the idea is that in video games you respawn, Die4Ever is being said to my opponent, as a command. Kinda like "gg no re" I guess lol.
That's... not a very good name. Anyway. Do you think you have what it takes to make it to the Semi Finals? You will be facing Hot_Bid, who many consider the de facto most awesome bro on TL.
Thanks. Hot_bid is gonna need a new pair of ESPORTS aviators to beat me.
Well it's going to be a tough battle, but you've made it this far so it should be close. Any last words to your fans?
I wanna thank my fans and the Aligulac guys for their continued support. Vote for me and TheBB in the next round! I also want to take this time to do my best Tasteless impression and plug some of my stuff. Check out http://sc2.4ever.tv for the WCS Predictor 2014. Also check out http://4ever.tv 4EverTV is like Pandora for videos and music, and you can watch together and chat and share and stuff, I guess it's not that much like Pandora, just go try it.
Feel free to PM me or tweet me @Die4EverDM with feedback for either site.
For the events table, I'd like to see the top event always be that player's next match. 80% of the time Taeja gets out of his RO32 group, and when that happens his chances go up to 70%.
On January 13 2014 04:52 KillerDucky wrote: For the events table, I'd like to see the top event always be that player's next match. 80% of the time Taeja gets out of his RO32 group, and when that happens his chances go up to 70%.
yea this is something I want to add soon. I'll also need the dates of matches for the headband thing anyways. I'll have to scrape liquipedia for the dates. Unfortunately I've been a bit busy lately with moving, and working on a new side project a bit lol. I'll try to do them this month, and then I guess after those 2 I can start working on achievements.
What is the format for WCS EU/AM Challenger leagues? For AM liquipedia says "Bracket Stage: 49 players Single-elimination bracket." lol, does 1 player just get a walkover straight to Premier?
On January 14 2014 12:24 Die4Ever wrote: What is the format for WCS EU/AM Challenger leagues? For AM liquipedia says "Bracket Stage: 49 players Single-elimination bracket." lol
A single round of Bo5 matches, where the winners advance to Premier and the losers drop out of WCS.
There are 49 players presumably because one extra spot is available in Premier due to Hack leaving the region. EU dealt with this situation by promoting the Challenger player with the most WCS points (Mvp). Something similar could happen here, but we'll have to wait for an announcement. Incidentally, if they do the same thing as EU then TaeJa will be the player who gets promoted.
On January 14 2014 12:24 Die4Ever wrote: What is the format for WCS EU/AM Challenger leagues? For AM liquipedia says "Bracket Stage: 49 players Single-elimination bracket." lol
A single round of Bo5 matches, where the winners advance to Premier and the losers drop out of WCS.
There are 49 players presumably because one extra spot is available in Premier due to Hack leaving the region. EU dealt with this situation by promoting the Challenger player with the most WCS points (Mvp). Something similar could happen here, but we'll have to wait for an announcement. Incidentally, if they do the same thing as EU then TaeJa will be the player who gets promoted.
Thanks, so what do you guys think I should do? auto promote Taeja (most WCS points last year)? Polt (previous champion)? giant wildcard group match?
Finalized WCS Qualifications. Code A has the groups drawn, the other regions don't yet. WCS EU has Mvp replacing duckdeok and Lucifron out. For WCS AM they haven't announced what they're doing with the 49th player in Challenger, so I bumped Taeja up to Premier since he had the most WCS Points from last year in AM (EU did the same thing with Mvp replacing duckdeok). Also full player list for ASUS is in.
On January 14 2014 12:24 Die4Ever wrote: What is the format for WCS EU/AM Challenger leagues? For AM liquipedia says "Bracket Stage: 49 players Single-elimination bracket." lol
A single round of Bo5 matches, where the winners advance to Premier and the losers drop out of WCS.
There are 49 players presumably because one extra spot is available in Premier due to Hack leaving the region. EU dealt with this situation by promoting the Challenger player with the most WCS points (Mvp). Something similar could happen here, but we'll have to wait for an announcement. Incidentally, if they do the same thing as EU then TaeJa will be the player who gets promoted.
Thanks, so what do you guys think I should do? auto promote Taeja (most WCS points last year)? Polt (previous champion)? giant wildcard group match?
NASL will probably announce what they're going to do soon, and I think they'll probably follow EU's method for consistency. But the WCS EU announcement says (emphasis added):
Having gathered the most WCS points in WCS Europe 2013, Mvp takes duckdeok's place and advances to the Premier League.
Does that mean that only points within that region count (i.e. ignoring points from season finals and non-wcs tournaments like dreamhack)? I bring that up because, when considering only the points gained from WCS AM Premiere and Challenger, I found Revival had more points in WCS AM than Taeja (1550 to 1450). I haven't checked everyone though, so I'm not sure if he was highest or not.
On January 14 2014 12:24 Die4Ever wrote: What is the format for WCS EU/AM Challenger leagues? For AM liquipedia says "Bracket Stage: 49 players Single-elimination bracket." lol
A single round of Bo5 matches, where the winners advance to Premier and the losers drop out of WCS.
There are 49 players presumably because one extra spot is available in Premier due to Hack leaving the region. EU dealt with this situation by promoting the Challenger player with the most WCS points (Mvp). Something similar could happen here, but we'll have to wait for an announcement. Incidentally, if they do the same thing as EU then TaeJa will be the player who gets promoted.
Thanks, so what do you guys think I should do? auto promote Taeja (most WCS points last year)? Polt (previous champion)? giant wildcard group match?
NASL will probably announce what they're going to do soon, and I think they'll probably follow EU's method for consistency. But the WCS EU announcement says (emphasis added):
Having gathered the most WCS points in WCS Europe 2013, Mvp takes duckdeok's place and advances to the Premier League.
Does that mean that only points within that region count (i.e. ignoring points from season finals and non-wcs tournaments like dreamhack)? I bring that up because, when considering only the points gained from WCS AM Premiere and Challenger, I found Revival had more points in WCS AM than Taeja (1550 to 1450). I haven't checked everyone though, so I'm not sure if he was highest or not.
Well right now Revival has a ~ 2.022% chance. If Revival gets 24th place in challenger (which happens ~ 65.45 % of the time) that means he's in premier and has a ~ 3.013% chance. I guess it would actually a little higher because Taeja wouldn't be guaranteed to be in premier, but it's a good estimate for now.
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 16 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Challenger League matches set, GSL Code A Group A and B results in! Sorry about the delay, had some mysql issues earlier today. I added some scraping of liquipedia to get results for matches instead of adding them manually. GSL Code A now automatically pulls the results from liquipedia. I especially needed this for getting the dates and times for each match in order to properly handle upcoming match highlights, headbands, and achievements. -----------------------
On January 16 2014 13:25 KillerDucky wrote: I see "Upcoming Matches with their predicted effects" on the home page, but I don't see where I can find that. Where do I click to?
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 1:50am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D results in! Added in results from GSL Code A Groups C and D. I also have it now searching for events for even lower chance players. Before it wasn't searching for events for players with less than 0.5% chance, but now the cutoff is 0.05%. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 8:03am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D,F results in! Added in results from GSL Code A Group F. Some initial testing for upcoming match consequences. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page. You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match. Here is an example on Innovation's page. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48 -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 17 4:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code A Group A,B,C,D,E,F results in! Added in results from GSL Code A Group E. Check out the initial testing for upcoming match consequences if you haven't already. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page. You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match. Here is an example on Innovation's page. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48 -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Jan 19 2:16am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU/AM Challenger Matches set! WCS EU/AM matches set, along with the liquipedia scraping for them, so they will now show up in the upcoming matches. I also enabled zooming for the probabilities graphs for players, just click and drag. Check out the initial testing for upcoming match consequences if you haven't already. Later upcoming matches will be highlighted on the front page, this will probably be done tonight. You can mouse over on the event to see what players are in the match. Here is an example on Innovation's page. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=48 -----------------------
What do you guys think of the formatting? Is there a better way to display this stuff? I was trying to think maybe graphs instead of text but couldn't think of a good graph type.
I changed the player probability graphs to start in 2014 instead of showing my super old tests from december, and also now they don't have an explicit minimum so the graph is zoomed on the y axis. For example the bottom of Taeja's graph is 75% instead of 0%, I think this makes it easier to read. Let's try some polls.
Event Markers on Player Probability Graphs (a dot for the day of the GSL finals) (0)
0%
Other - leave a comment (0)
0%
7 total votes
Your vote: Next Addition
(Vote): Headbands (Vote): Achievements (Vote): Foreigner Hope Rating (Vote): Biggest Winners/Losers for past ~5 days (Vote): Event Markers on Player Probability Graphs (a dot for the day of the GSL finals) (Vote): Other - leave a comment
For explanation on the headbands thing just look on page 4 for my interview.
Achievements will be like Polt Award for winning 2 WCS Regionals in a row, The Other NesTea award for winning a WCS Regional without losing a single map, some achievements for win streaks, etc. If you have suggestions for achievements or achievement names feel free to post them.
Biggest winners/losers for past 5+ days would be the players who had the biggest change in their chances.
Event markers on the player probability graphs would show markers for when tournaments started/ended, and some for changes made to WCS Predictor (like TeSL added to simulation).
I voted for Foreigner Hope Rating as the next addition, as I would like to see that more than anything else.
However, here is another suggestion: clean up the top 50 section. Slightly less information, or rearranged more cleanly. Have ranking numbers 1, 2, 3, etc. Use country flag images instead of a 2 letter code. Maybe write names as Acer.Scarlett instead of two separate columns. Maybe make columns not as wide. Order the columns rank, country, name, odds of top 16, aligulac rating. As the section is right now I get lost trying to tie together someone's name with their odds and rating. It would also be nice to see at a quick glance which countries (besides KR of course) have people in the top 50.
Edit: Maybe also use an image for the race (Protoss, Terran, Zerg) instead of words. Much easier to tell at a glance which races are doing well, and less distracting information at the same time.
On January 22 2014 15:20 Sherlock117 wrote: I voted for Foreigner Hope Rating as the next addition, as I would like to see that more than anything else.
However, here is another suggestion: clean up the top 50 section. Slightly less information, or rearranged more cleanly. Have ranking numbers 1, 2, 3, etc. Use country flag images instead of a 2 letter code. Maybe write names as Acer.Scarlett instead of two separate columns. Maybe make columns not as wide. Order the columns rank, country, name, odds of top 16, aligulac rating. As the section is right now I get lost trying to tie together someone's name with their odds and rating. It would also be nice to see at a quick glance which countries (besides KR of course) have people in the top 50.
Edit: Maybe also use an image for the race (Protoss, Terran, Zerg) instead of words. Much easier to tell at a glance which races are doing well, and less distracting information at the same time.
Love the new version! Keep it up.
By top 50 section, do you mean the top 1,407 section? Lol, it has page buttons at the bottom, it shows every player active in aligulac for the last 3 periods. Thanks for the feedback! I definitely need to get the race/country icons from liquipedia if they'll let me. I actually disagree on the team/player thing though, because if they're in the same column then you can't sort by player name, but you would still be able to filter by player name so maybe that's ok.
I did a kind of half update. IEM Sao Paulo groups are in, WCS AM Challenger League Day 2 is still midway, and it was started before GSL Code A Group J started. You can look at the upcoming match list to see which results are not in yet. I added graphs for summed percentages for teams, and for countries. The summed percentages for countries is kind of like a preview for the foreigner hope rating. When completed the foreigner hope rating will give probability of 0,1,2, and 3 or more foreigners making the top 16.
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 23 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Challenger updates! And more graphs! WCS AM/EU finished with days 1 and 2,GSL Code A done with groups A-J. Also set the groups for IEM Sao Paulo, and Life replacing Vortix at ASUS. I added a graph for summed probabilities for the teams, grouped by KESPA, ESF (only 2 teams now...), and Other. Also added a graph for summed probabilities for different countries, which I think works better as a bar graph rather than a pie chart. Koreans are at ~1207% while foreigners are at ~ 393%, think of this as a preview for the Foreigner Hope Rating. You can zoom on this graph, just click and drag. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 24 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Challenger updates! And ASUS groups! WCS EU Challenger finished with days 1, 2 and 3, WCS AM Challenger finished with days 1 and 2, GSL Code A done with groups A-J. Also set the groups for ASUS ROG, and made the teams pie chart color coded. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 24 4:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Code A Finished! GSL Code A is now finished. Jjakji is currently a walkover in Code S. -----------------------
Some people have expressed confusion over the summed percentage graphs and how they are out of 1600% instead of 100%. I won't explain my reasoning because I don't want to bias the poll.
Poll: How should summed percentages be displayed
Out of 100% (11)
85%
Out of 1600% (2)
15%
13 total votes
Your vote: How should summed percentages be displayed
Just thinking about some other changes you might make to the "Players Table". At some point you'll probably want to have the player's current WCS points. I might also suggest you put in there the player's median predicted final point total or something like that (depending of course on how the simulator is actually making the predictions. I'm assuming it is making a prediction on outcomes of all WCS seasons and all known tournaments, and assigning points for those outcomes).
If you can get flags, you should also include those in the section on the foreigner hope rating.
On January 25 2014 05:58 Sherlock117 wrote: Just thinking about some other changes you might make to the "Players Table". At some point you'll probably want to have the player's current WCS points. I might also suggest you put in there the player's median predicted final point total or something like that (depending of course on how the simulator is actually making the predictions. I'm assuming it is making a prediction on outcomes of all WCS seasons and all known tournaments, and assigning points for those outcomes).
If you can get flags, you should also include those in the section on the foreigner hope rating.
I want to add the current WCS points after I do the foreigner hope rating stuff. Also the minimum number of WCS points the player can get and/or the minimum number of points they can get while qualifying. I could do median WCS points, but maybe mean or mode would be better?
Yes I do need race and flag icons. I tried asking @Liquipedia if I could use their race icons but they told me to ask blizzard, I tweeted at @starcraft and they didn't respond, so maybe I just need to ask somewhere else. Blizzard has race icons in their fan site pack, but I don't like them as much. Flag icons should be easy to find any random free pack of them.
On January 25 2014 05:58 Sherlock117 wrote: Just thinking about some other changes you might make to the "Players Table". At some point you'll probably want to have the player's current WCS points. I might also suggest you put in there the player's median predicted final point total or something like that (depending of course on how the simulator is actually making the predictions. I'm assuming it is making a prediction on outcomes of all WCS seasons and all known tournaments, and assigning points for those outcomes).
If you can get flags, you should also include those in the section on the foreigner hope rating.
I want to add the current WCS points after I do the foreigner hope rating stuff. Also the minimum number of WCS points the player can get and/or the minimum number of points they can get while qualifying. I could do median WCS points, but maybe mean or mode would be better?
Yes I do need race and flag icons. I tried asking @Liquipedia if I could use their race icons but they told me to ask blizzard, I tweeted at @starcraft and they didn't respond, so maybe I just need to ask somewhere else. Blizzard has race icons in their fan site pack, but I don't like them as much. Flag icons should be easy to find any random free pack of them.
Thanks for your feedback!
No problem.
That's a good question. The median is going to be slightly higher than the mode since the distribution will tend to be right-skewed. I would say the median will give you the "expected outcome" since it sits in the middle of all the simulation, whereas the mode will give you the "most likely outcome" out of many. I think the median would be slightly more accurate of a predictor, but I could be wrong.
You are probably pretty well known on Liquipedia now after the popularity contest. Have you tried pm'ing any of the other people who were in the contest? They might be able to point you towards the right person to get the flag and race icons.
Added the Foreigner Hope section. It has a line graph showing the chances of having different numbers of foreigners in the top 16 for the season. You can show more lines by clicking on the key for them at the bottom of the graph, and you can also zoom on this graph. The graph is just a straight line for now since nothing has changed yet (I just added this in tonight).
It also shows the foreigner hopes, the players with the best chances of being the only foreigner. And there's still the graph for summed chances for the top countries.
I also added red and pink borders around important upcoming matches, where red is more important than pink. These are matches that are determined to happen often enough and cause a big enough difference to both players.
I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals).
Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband.
Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points). If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband.
sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S. If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
I also added biggest winners and biggest losers. It looks back 5 days before the newest simulation. So if the current simulation is 2 days old, then it will compare to a simulation at least 7 days old.
I'm gonna do some tweaks for now and hopefully add some icons for countries and races lol. For the next big feature I'll let you guys decide.
Poll: What feature to add next?
current/min/max/mean/median/mode WCS Points (3)
50%
Event Markers on Player Probability Graphs (a dot for the day of the GSL finals) (3)
50%
Achievements (0)
0%
WCS Point Cutoffs (0)
0%
Other - leave a comment (0)
0%
6 total votes
Your vote: What feature to add next?
(Vote): Achievements (Vote): Event Markers on Player Probability Graphs (a dot for the day of the GSL finals) (Vote): current/min/max/mean/median/mode WCS Points (Vote): WCS Point Cutoffs (Vote): Other - leave a comment
Achievements will be like Polt Award for winning 2 WCS Regionals in a row, The Other NesTea award for winning a WCS Regional without losing a single map, some achievements for win streaks, etc. If you have suggestions for achievements or achievement names feel free to post them.
Event markers on the player probability graphs would show markers for when tournaments started/ended, and some for changes made to WCS Predictor (like TeSL added to simulation).
WCS Point Cutoffs would be like what was in the previous version, something like this 0.125333% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify 43.9743% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify 69.4957% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify 79.695% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify 98.5627% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify 100% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify
Added the Foreigner Hope section. It has a line graph showing the chances of having different numbers of foreigners in the top 16 for the season. You can show more lines by clicking on the key for them at the bottom of the graph, and you can also zoom on this graph. The graph is just a straight line for now since nothing has changed yet (I just added this in tonight).
Added the Foreigner Hope section. It has a line graph showing the chances of having different numbers of foreigners in the top 16 for the season. You can show more lines by clicking on the key for them at the bottom of the graph, and you can also zoom on this graph. The graph is just a straight line for now since nothing has changed yet (I just added this in tonight).
I also added red and pink borders around important upcoming matches, where red is more important than pink. These are matches that are determined to happen often enough and cause a big enough difference to both players.
I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals).
Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband.
Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points). If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband.
sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S. If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
I also added biggest winners and biggest losers. It looks back 5 days before the newest simulation. So if the current simulation is 2 days old, then it will compare to a simulation at least 7 days old.
I also changed summed percentage graphs changed to be out of 100% instead of out of 1600% to avoid confusion.
Also added liquidpedia scraping to ASUS ROG, so now those matches show up in the upcoming matches section. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jan 29 7:25am GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM and GSL Wildcards! Added IEM to the upcoming matched list. It was in the simulation before, just didn't have the date/time for it. Also added the GSL Wildcards to the simulation, for replacing Jjakji. This currently has the round of 12 completed. http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Global_StarCraft_II_League_Season_1/Code_A#Wildcard_Tournament Notice the big winners from this, and how their graph shoots up lol. Sleep, Cure, Paralyze, Gumiho, Dream, and Stork.
I also added some icons, made player names have tooltips and be links, and touched up the player pages a little bit. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Jan 29 4:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00)GSL Wildcards Completed! The GSL Wildcards have been completed, check out the difference it made for the winner http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=1642
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jan 30 6:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM Group A Completed, WCS AM Challenger Completed, GSL Code S Groups Set! It seems the biggest loser resulting from the Code S groups is Solar, who got a way harder than average group with Rain, herO, and DongRaeGu. Solar went from 21.52% in the previous update down to 18.26% in this update.
I also added borders and text in the upcoming matches section for headband matches, check out Jaedong's upcoming match in ASUS for an example of a #2 headband match. #1 headband match will be similar but with a gold border instead of silver. -----------------------
Die4Ever thanks for doing this it's pretty awesome. I'd question though whether "top 16 at the end of Season 1" has a lot of relevance, since there is no longer a Season 1 finals. I understand it's meant to be a rough proxy for "top 16 at end of year," but I feel like it would be more immediately interesting for people to see right away things that are self explanatory, like "chances of winning Code S S1," "chances of winning IEM Sao Paulo," etc. Like right now on the player table, herO(jOin) is the #1 rated player currently in Code S, but a large chunk of that might be because of all the other tournaments he's entered in. I have no idea who your tables predict will win Code S, and that's a lot more interesting to me right now than a general "top 16 at end of S1" figure!
To be clear I'm not saying to scrap the Top 16 at end of season stuff, just maybe put it below the more immediately relevant stats.
On January 31 2014 06:07 Yakikorosu wrote: Die4Ever thanks for doing this it's pretty awesome. I'd question though whether "top 16 at the end of Season 1" has a lot of relevance, since there is no longer a Season 1 finals. I understand it's meant to be a rough proxy for "top 16 at end of year," but I feel like it would be more immediately interesting for people to see right away things that are self explanatory, like "chances of winning Code S S1," "chances of winning IEM Sao Paulo," etc. Like right now on the player table, herO(jOin) is the #1 rated player currently in Code S, but a large chunk of that might be because of all the other tournaments he's entered in. I have no idea who your tables predict will win Code S, and that's a lot more interesting to me right now than a general "top 16 at end of S1" figure!
To be clear I'm not saying to scrap the Top 16 at end of season stuff, just maybe put it below the more immediately relevant stats.
Thank you for the feedback. For season 2 I definitely plan on doing the full year instead of just the season. I just feel like season 1 is too far away to do that, considering that someone can go from Code B to Code S Champion in 1 season now.
Predicting tournament winners instead is an interesting idea, I could make a section for most likely tournament champions. I guess it would look like (I'm making up all these numbers)
Taeja has a 40% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Bomber has a 37% chance to win IEM Sao Paulo. Taeja has a 35% chance to win ASUS ROG. Life has a 30% chance to win ASUS ROG. Polt has a 22% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Jaedong has a 20% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Rain has a 15% chance to win GSL Code S.
Something like that.
I would keep all the graphs the same because it would be a lot of work to redo all those just for the remainder of this season.
On January 31 2014 06:07 Yakikorosu wrote: Die4Ever thanks for doing this it's pretty awesome. I'd question though whether "top 16 at the end of Season 1" has a lot of relevance, since there is no longer a Season 1 finals. I understand it's meant to be a rough proxy for "top 16 at end of year," but I feel like it would be more immediately interesting for people to see right away things that are self explanatory, like "chances of winning Code S S1," "chances of winning IEM Sao Paulo," etc. Like right now on the player table, herO(jOin) is the #1 rated player currently in Code S, but a large chunk of that might be because of all the other tournaments he's entered in. I have no idea who your tables predict will win Code S, and that's a lot more interesting to me right now than a general "top 16 at end of S1" figure!
To be clear I'm not saying to scrap the Top 16 at end of season stuff, just maybe put it below the more immediately relevant stats.
Thank you for the feedback. For season 2 I definitely plan on doing the full year instead of just the season. I just feel like season 1 is too far away to do that, considering that someone can go from Code B to Code S Champion in 1 season now.
Predicting tournament winners instead is an interesting idea, I could make a section for most likely tournament champions. I guess it would look like (I'm making up all these numbers)
Taeja has a 40% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Bomber has a 37% chance to win IEM Sao Paulo. Taeja has a 35% chance to win ASUS ROG. Life has a 30% chance to win ASUS ROG. Polt has a 22% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Jaedong has a 20% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Rain has a 15% chance to win GSL Code S.
Something like that.
I would keep all the graphs the same because it would be a lot of work to redo all those just for the remainder of this season.
I was thinking of something much like that, but optimally (I have no ability to take into account how hard any of this is to do) have an expandable list for each tournament that shows the chances of each player to win the tournament. It would be cool to see how those percentages change as they advance through and matchups are set. So by default maybe show the 3(?) players with the highest chance of winning but an expandable full list would be great for those who want to see it--it would be fun to know for example who has the LEAST chance of winning Code S (of the players in it), etc.
On January 31 2014 06:07 Yakikorosu wrote: Die4Ever thanks for doing this it's pretty awesome. I'd question though whether "top 16 at the end of Season 1" has a lot of relevance, since there is no longer a Season 1 finals. I understand it's meant to be a rough proxy for "top 16 at end of year," but I feel like it would be more immediately interesting for people to see right away things that are self explanatory, like "chances of winning Code S S1," "chances of winning IEM Sao Paulo," etc. Like right now on the player table, herO(jOin) is the #1 rated player currently in Code S, but a large chunk of that might be because of all the other tournaments he's entered in. I have no idea who your tables predict will win Code S, and that's a lot more interesting to me right now than a general "top 16 at end of S1" figure!
To be clear I'm not saying to scrap the Top 16 at end of season stuff, just maybe put it below the more immediately relevant stats.
Thank you for the feedback. For season 2 I definitely plan on doing the full year instead of just the season. I just feel like season 1 is too far away to do that, considering that someone can go from Code B to Code S Champion in 1 season now.
Predicting tournament winners instead is an interesting idea, I could make a section for most likely tournament champions. I guess it would look like (I'm making up all these numbers)
Taeja has a 40% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Bomber has a 37% chance to win IEM Sao Paulo. Taeja has a 35% chance to win ASUS ROG. Life has a 30% chance to win ASUS ROG. Polt has a 22% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Jaedong has a 20% chance to win WCS AM Premier. Rain has a 15% chance to win GSL Code S.
Something like that.
I would keep all the graphs the same because it would be a lot of work to redo all those just for the remainder of this season.
I was thinking of something much like that, but optimally (I have no ability to take into account how hard any of this is to do) have an expandable list for each tournament that shows the chances of each player to win the tournament. It would be cool to see how those percentages change as they advance through and matchups are set. So by default maybe show the 3(?) players with the highest chance of winning but an expandable full list would be great for those who want to see it--it would be fun to know for example who has the LEAST chance of winning Code S (of the players in it), etc.
Yea I like your idea better. I should be able to add it this weekend.
Awesome. Also this is just a matter of taste but I vote for a different font. I find too much Times New Roman kind of hard on the eyes. Maybe Calibri or if you're feeling adventurous Agency FB or something? I'm not a font maven, but on such a text-heavy site I think it's important. You should have a poll to vote for fonts or something. ^_^
On January 31 2014 06:44 Yakikorosu wrote: Awesome. Also this is just a matter of taste but I vote for a different font. I find too much Times New Roman kind of hard on the eyes. Maybe Calibri or if you're feeling adventurous Agency FB or something? I'm not a font maven, but on such a text-heavy site I think it's important. You should have a poll to vote for fonts or something. ^_^
Haha I wouldn't even know which fonts to put as choices in the poll, feel free to make the poll for me.
On January 31 2014 06:44 Yakikorosu wrote: Awesome. Also this is just a matter of taste but I vote for a different font. I find too much Times New Roman kind of hard on the eyes. Maybe Calibri or if you're feeling adventurous Agency FB or something? I'm not a font maven, but on such a text-heavy site I think it's important. You should have a poll to vote for fonts or something. ^_^
Haha I wouldn't even know which fonts to put as choices in the poll, feel free to make the poll for me.
I have no idea either, I kind of like the two I mentioned, but surely someone on TL is a fonts guru? If so suggest some awesome fonts for Die4Ever's awesome site! Just please no Comic Sans.
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 31 12:35am GMT (GMT+00:00)IEM Groups A and B Completed, WCS AM Premier Groups Set, GSL Code S Groups Set! Also a new font! ASUS ROG is counting the cancellations of Naniwa and Bischu.
Look out for Jaedong's match at ASUS ROG, this is a match for the #2 headband! Jaedong got the #2 headband for getting 2nd place at Blizzcon 2013. Whoever beats the #2 headband holder takes the #2 headband from them. Here is the explanation of headbands that I posted before - + Show Spoiler [Headbands] +
I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals).
Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband.
Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points). If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband.
sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S. If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
With the disbanding of ESF, I'm thinking of changing the pie chart for teams to be categorized into Original KESPA, Original ESF, and Other. Currently it is categorized into KESPA, ESF, and Other. This will still be by team and not by player, so Innovation would count for Other not for Original KESPA, and Trap would count for Original ESF.
I'm also going to add a section for each tournament, to show the probabilities for each player to win it (thanks Yakikorosu!) And I still need to add the WCS Points min/mode, and the event markers on the probability graphs. -----------------------
On January 31 2014 08:49 Mifoi123 wrote: Die4Ever I love you! :D This must be a lot of work? Where do you find the time to update everything!? Anyways, thank you very much for doing this! <3
--------UPDATE Friday, Jan 31 8:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM ro16 completed,ASUS ro32 completed! Look out for Jaedong's match at ASUS ROG, this is a match for the #2 headband! Can Jaedong continue to defend his #2 headband? Jaedong got the #2 headband for getting 2nd place at Blizzcon 2013. Whoever beats the #2 headband holder takes the #2 headband from them. Here is the explanation of headbands that I posted before - + Show Spoiler [Headbands] +
I added the headbands tracking, which isn't very interesting yet because there haven't been any headband matches yet (unless you count the Blizzcon finals).
Here's my explanation for the headbands for anyone who missed it
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So right now sOs has the #1 headband and Jaedong has the #2 headband.
Jaedong's next tournament is ASUS ROG (at least for tournaments that give WCS points). If Jaedong beats someone at ASUS ROG, then he keeps his #2 headband. Let's say Jaedong loses to Taeja, Taeja takes the #2 headband and Jaedong now has no headband.
sOs's next tournament is GSL Code S. If sOs loses to someone who doesn't have a headband, like Maru, then nothing happens. However if Dear beats Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then Dear with the #2 headband beats sOs, Dear now has the #1 headband and sOs is demoted down to #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
With the disbanding of ESF, I'm thinking of changing the pie chart for teams to be categorized into Original KESPA, Original ESF, and Other. Currently it is categorized into KESPA, ESF, and Other. This will still be by team and not by player, so Innovation would count for Other not for Original KESPA, and Trap would count for Original ESF.
I'm also going to add a section for each tournament, to show the probabilities for each player to win it (thanks Yakikorosu!) And I still need to add the WCS Points min/mode, and the event markers on the probability graphs. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Saturday, Feb 01 1:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM ro8 half completed, ASUS ro16 completed! In this update we saw the first headband transfer, with Life beating Jaedong to take the #2 headband. We also see some big changes in chances looking at the biggest winners and losers sections. Dear, ForGG, StarDust, MC, and jjakji being the 5 biggest winners with gains over 13%, Dear gained a huge 28.95% after a tough group. The biggest losers are TaeJa, Bbyong, HerO, NaNiwa, and Solar losing about 12% to 19%, except TaeJa who lost 30.4%.
Keep an eye on the upcoming matches section as we have many important matches coming up this weekend (highlighted in pink or red), and another match for the #2 headband (highlighted in silver) where Life will be attempting to defend against San. -----------------------
edit: btw if you guys ever want to make your own posts for highlighting upcoming matches, I use this link to output the BB code for it http://sc2.4ever.tv/?bbcode=1
I have a few improvements ideas: 1. You have the last update time but I don't know which time zone it is? Can you add it like EST (UTC -5) so that I can figure out to my time zone easely? 2. Can you change the "Summed Percentages For Countries" to show the actual number of players from each country instead of just the % who does not tell us a lot? The korean vs foreigners % is useful tho. 3. (Same request as above) "Summed Percentages For Teams" to numbers of players per team with a bar graph?
Note: Biggest Winners and losers are my favorite because it shows the progression from day to day! :D
On February 02 2014 06:15 Mifoi123 wrote: I have a few improvements ideas: 1. You have the last update time but I don't know which time zone it is? Can you add it like EST (UTC -5) so that I can figure out to my time zone easely? 2. Can you change the "Summed Percentages For Countries" to show the actual number of players from each country instead of just the % who does not tell us a lot? The korean vs foreigners % is useful tho. 3. (Same request as above) "Summed Percentages For Teams" to numbers of players per team with a bar graph?
Note: Biggest Winners and losers are my favorite because it shows the progression from day to day! :D
Thanks for the feedback. I never put the timezone for the update time cause I planned on having the website to convert it to the viewer's local time, for now it's CST.
I'm not sure what you mean by number of players per country/team? Maybe you mean the number of players they have in the 16 most likely? I feel like that wouldn't be very telling.
--------UPDATE Saturday, Feb 01 10:20pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM and ASUS Completed! With this update we finally have some reasonably secured top spots for the season, with San and CJ herO winning they both are at over 99.8% to be top 16 for season 1. San gets an additional bonus taking away the #2 headband, keeping it away from the GSL and sOs. San's next match will be against Elfi in WCS EU Challenger, with how his PvP is looking it seems likely that he will defend the #2 headband and move on to Premier league.
Also in this update, Protoss is nearing the 50% mark on the summed percentages graph, with 48.35%. Foreigners only lost a little bit of hope as the chance of at least 1 foreigner making the top 16 for the season went from 99.27% earlier today down to 98.77%. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Sunday, Feb 02 5:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Features! After the completion of ASUS and IEM I added a few new features.
-Changed the foreigner hope graph to show #+ foreigners instead of # of foreigners. So now you see the chances for 1+ foreigners, 2+ foreigners, etc. I think this looks better than before. (Thanks KillerDucky!)
-Added flags on the probabilities graphs for players and foreigner hope to show big events that happened that could've changed the probabilities. Right now there are only flags for the completion of IEM and ASUS, but later I could even have events for me changing things like "Special Previously Unannounced Tournament 7 added to simulation".
-I added headband and upcoming matches info to the player pages.
-Also to the player pages, I added green and red dashes on their probability graphs to show the expected results of a win or loss in their next upcoming match. The size of the dash is relative to how probable the event is. See sOs for a good example. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=110 -----------------------
What do you guys think of the green and red dashes on players' probabilities graphs?
edit: And I just changed the flags for events on the graphs to be the icon for the race of who won, for non-tournament-winning events it's still just a flag.
I just added stats for WCS Points (min,max,mean,median,mode,min while qualifying, max while not qualifying). (Mean is a normal average, median is the one in the middle, mode is the one that happens the most, see wikipedia)
Min and mode I thought were the best ones, so these are shown on the front page list, and also on the tooltips for players. http://sc2.4ever.tv/
Next big features over the next month will probably be -a section on the front page for each tournament that shows the chances for each player to win the tournament (showing like top 5 and expanding to show at most the top 64 or so) -proper timezone conversions into your local time -achievements -make the countdowns actually update without reloading -on the main players list, have up and down arrows representing if they went up or down in chances in the past 5 days, with a tooltip that says the amount, similar to what aligulac does
On February 02 2014 06:15 Mifoi123 wrote: I have a few improvements ideas: 1. You have the last update time but I don't know which time zone it is? Can you add it like EST (UTC -5) so that I can figure out to my time zone easely? 2. Can you change the "Summed Percentages For Countries" to show the actual number of players from each country instead of just the % who does not tell us a lot? The korean vs foreigners % is useful tho. 3. (Same request as above) "Summed Percentages For Teams" to numbers of players per team with a bar graph?
Note: Biggest Winners and losers are my favorite because it shows the progression from day to day! :D
Thanks for the feedback. I never put the timezone for the update time cause I planned on having the website to convert it to the viewer's local time, for now it's CST.
I'm not sure what you mean by number of players per country/team? Maybe you mean the number of players they have in the 16 most likely? I feel like that wouldn't be very telling.
My guess is that he means instead of listing a percentage, why not display the data as the number of people predicted to be in the top 16. So for Koreans instead of a summed percentage of 1326%, you could display this as your simulator predicts there will be 13.26 people from Korea. Then you could display all the info in a bar graph instead of what is basically a pie chart.
The site is looking better every time I go there. The player pages are awesome, and I can't see anything to change.
I still think the look of the main page is a little daunting, but looking much nicer now. I think having the rankings at the top and in a cleaner format is the nicest thing for a casual viewer. Then you could have a different page for more detailed rankings with more sortable ccolumns, etc. On the main page I would stick with the player name, country flag, race icon column, the probability of top 16, and maybe "expected" WCS point total (I disagree with you and think the median is the most relevant, but I won't be offended either way!). There should also be a ranking "number". I.e. hero is 1, San is 2, etc.
My suggestion for making the front page nicer is to look at other websites which have rankings as their main draw and try and use the looks that you like. Aligulac is really nice and clean, or maybe atpworldtour.com is another. I can see right away who the "top" players are. And I can easily find my way to more info like foreigner hope rating, etc.
Oh, I forgot to mention, the new foreigner hope rating display is excellent!
On February 02 2014 06:15 Mifoi123 wrote: I have a few improvements ideas: 1. You have the last update time but I don't know which time zone it is? Can you add it like EST (UTC -5) so that I can figure out to my time zone easely? 2. Can you change the "Summed Percentages For Countries" to show the actual number of players from each country instead of just the % who does not tell us a lot? The korean vs foreigners % is useful tho. 3. (Same request as above) "Summed Percentages For Teams" to numbers of players per team with a bar graph?
Note: Biggest Winners and losers are my favorite because it shows the progression from day to day! :D
Thanks for the feedback. I never put the timezone for the update time cause I planned on having the website to convert it to the viewer's local time, for now it's CST.
I'm not sure what you mean by number of players per country/team? Maybe you mean the number of players they have in the 16 most likely? I feel like that wouldn't be very telling.
My guess is that he means instead of listing a percentage, why not display the data as the number of people predicted to be in the top 16. So for Koreans instead of a summed percentage of 1326%, you could display this as your simulator predicts there will be 13.26 people from Korea. Then you could display all the info in a bar graph instead of what is basically a pie chart.
I'm not sure that % to people conversion is mathematically correct, but it seems to be close enough. I guess the suggestion is to keep it the same except changing the labels on the graph from % to # of people? That would probably make it easier to understand.
On February 05 2014 15:03 Sherlock117 wrote: The site is looking better every time I go there. The player pages are awesome, and I can't see anything to change.
I still think the look of the main page is a little daunting, but looking much nicer now. I think having the rankings at the top and in a cleaner format is the nicest thing for a casual viewer. Then you could have a different page for more detailed rankings with more sortable ccolumns, etc. On the main page I would stick with the player name, country flag, race icon column, the probability of top 16, and maybe "expected" WCS point total (I disagree with you and think the median is the most relevant, but I won't be offended either way!). There should also be a ranking "number". I.e. hero is 1, San is 2, etc.
My suggestion for making the front page nicer is to look at other websites which have rankings as their main draw and try and use the looks that you like. Aligulac is really nice and clean, or maybe atpworldtour.com is another. I can see right away who the "top" players are. And I can easily find my way to more info like foreigner hope rating, etc.
Oh, I forgot to mention, the new foreigner hope rating display is excellent!
Yea I want to make a smaller front page with the top 20 or so on it, and maybe some other highlights like the upcoming matches, and then have a different page for the full list. I'm not sure how to split up the other stats though like all the graphs and achievements and foreigner hope and stuff, I don't really want them to be hidden. Maybe I'll keep the current front page intact but make it a different page, and make a new front page have just upcoming matches and the top 20.
On median vs mode, I actually like both lol, maybe I can fit both. I think min is definitely the most important one though, especially since it lets people alert me when I got something wrong lol, this helped a lot in the previous version.
--------UPDATE Friday, Feb 07 2:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Challenger Completed, IEM Player List Updated! Updated with WCS EU Challenger completed, and the current IEM Cologne player list. You can see the IEM update hurt foreign hopes a little bit. With his announcement of being at IEM, TLO now takes the spot for top foreign hope away from Naniwa. Also Classic and Polt seem to have gone down in chances due to the strong list of players now going to IEM, both losing over 6%.
Also with this update Protoss has surpassed the 50% mark on the summed percentages per race! Now at 51.6%. -----------------------
Here's the preview for tonight's GSL Code S group!
- Leenock is at ~ 12.90 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 50.41 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 24.19 %. ~ 49.59 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SuperNova is at ~ 8.14 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 49.22 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.50 %. ~ 50.78 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 7.33 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 45.85 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.95 %. ~ 54.15 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 10.98 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 54.53 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.10 %. ~ 45.47 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %.
Times are all shown in your local time, if you mouse over a time on the page(not in a graph, right now the only one is the time for "using results from") then it will show how long ago it was or a countdown for it. Countdowns are now kept updated in real time, if you mouse over a countdown it will show the date/time in your local timezone.
Restricted how far out the green and red dashes for upcoming matches on player chances history graphs goes to 5 days, the actual date/time of the match is shown when you mouse over. This was making the graph look really dumb on puCK's page for example, where his next match isn't for another 31 days.
Reduced the number of duplicate events about upcoming matches shown on a player page. For example an upcoming match with Life vs Innovation, you would see in their events "If Life wins...","If Life loses...","If Innovation wins...", and "If Innovation loses...", I reduced it to show only the ones for the current player. This only affects singular events and not grouped events.
Changed the teams summed percentage graph to group into Original KESPA and Original ESF instead of current. This is per team and not per player, so Trap counts for IM which is Original ESF.
Players with ~0% (0 times qualified in all the samples) chances are no longer shown on the front page to reduce load times by about 50%. Under the players table there is a link to the full list.
Also the columns on the players table have been reordered. They are now in the order of: team, player, chances, aligulac rating, country, race, min points, mode points.
And now it is time to go to sleep so I can wake up for Proleague! Get hyped!
--------UPDATE Sunday, Feb 09 11:20pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Player List Finalized! The IEM Cologne player list, groups, and open bracket have been finalized. Due to the simulation no longer needing to pull random players to fill unannounced slots for any tournament this greatly reduces the number of players with over 0% chances. Right now there are only 104 players with over 0% chances for season 1.
Times are all shown in your local time, if you mouse over a time on the page(not in a graph, right now the only one is the time for "using results from") then it will show how long ago it was or a countdown for it. Countdowns are now kept updated in real time, if you mouse over a countdown it will show the date/time in your local timezone.
Restricted how far out the green and red dashes for upcoming matches on player chances history graphs goes to 5 days, the actual date/time of the match is shown when you mouse over. This was making the graph look really dumb on puCK's page for example, where his next match isn't for another 31 days.
Reduced the number of duplicate events about upcoming matches shown on a player page. For example an upcoming match with Life vs Innovation, you would see in their events "If Life wins...","If Life loses...","If Innovation wins...", and "If Innovation loses...", I reduced it to show only the ones for the current player. This only affects singular events and not grouped events.
Changed the teams summed percentage graph to group into Original KESPA and Original ESF instead of current. This is per team and not per player, so Trap counts for IM which is Original ESF.
Players with ~0% (0 times qualified in all the samples) chances are no longer shown on the front page to reduce load times by about 50%. Under the players table there is a link to the full list.
Also the columns on the players table have been reordered. They are now in the order of: team, player, chances, aligulac rating, country, race, min points, mode points.
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 12 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Premier ro32 groups set! WCS EU Premier round of 32 groups have been set. Zest went up by almost 6% over the previous update just because of the increase in his aligulac rating, especially vs Protoss, which should be the most important rating for GSL this season. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 12 12:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Cologne predictions and GSL Code S Group C completed! IEM Cologne has been added to the upcoming matches highlights. San vs HasuObs is a match for the #2 headband! + Show Spoiler [IEM Predictions] +
- MC is at ~ 68.66 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 72.89 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 72.47 %. ~ 27.11 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 58.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revenge is at ~ 0.00 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 27.11 % of the time Revenge wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 72.89 % of the time Revenge loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
San has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - San is at ~ 99.96 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 64.84 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.97 %. ~ 35.16 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.94 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HasuObs is at ~ 8.08 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 35.16 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.78 %. ~ 64.84 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.16 %.
- StarDust is at ~ 61.20 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 72.60 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 65.55 %. ~ 27.40 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 49.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.57 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 27.40 % of the time Miniraser wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.75 %. ~ 72.60 % of the time Miniraser loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.50 %.
- TLO is at ~ 29.00 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 69.81 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.36 %. ~ 30.19 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 23.56 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HaNfy is at ~ 0.00 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 30.19 % of the time HaNfy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 69.81 % of the time HaNfy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- HyuN is at ~ 30.62 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 79.00 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.71 %. ~ 21.00 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 26.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Tarrantius is at ~ 0.00 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 21.00 % of the time Tarrantius wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 79.00 % of the time Tarrantius loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- viOLet is at ~ 1.21 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 51.79 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.93 %. ~ 48.21 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.44 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Tefel is at ~ 0.24 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 48.21 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.41 %. ~ 51.79 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.07 %.
- Leenock is at ~ 0.40 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 48.66 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.72 %. ~ 51.34 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.04 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 51.34 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 48.66 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
- Grubby is at ~ 5.13 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 40.69 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.40 %. ~ 59.31 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 4.33 %% chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 59.31 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.38 %. ~ 40.69 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.35 %.
--------UPDATE Thursday, Feb 13 9:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Cologne round of 16 groups set! With the open brackets completed, the IEM Cologne round of 16 groups have been set. Stardust now holds the #2 headband in Group C. + Show Spoiler [IEM Ro16 Predictions] +
- Rain is at ~ 47.17 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 55.86 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 61.63 %. ~ 44.14 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 28.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HerO is at ~ 47.50 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 50.06 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 57.77 %. ~ 49.94 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 37.29 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 45.39 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 49.68 %. ~ 54.61 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 26.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ForGG is at ~ 74.02 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 48.69 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 93.31 %. ~ 51.31 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 55.73 %.
- jjakji is at ~ 85.35 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 68.34 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 95.24 %. ~ 31.66 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 64.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - qxc is at ~ 0.10 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 12.41 % of the time qxc wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.84 %. ~ 87.59 % of the time qxc loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 10.67 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 62.89 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.96 %. ~ 37.11 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dear is at ~ 92.95 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 56.36 % of the time Dear wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.86 %. ~ 43.64 % of the time Dear loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.02 %.
StarDust has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Polt is at ~ 71.45 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 61.05 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 82.59 %. ~ 38.95 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 53.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 22.40 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.86 %. ~ 77.60 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 59.45 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 59.51 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.66 %. ~ 40.49 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 41.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 77.62 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 57.04 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 93.33 %. ~ 42.96 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 56.75 %.
- MC is at ~ 92.97 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 54.92 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.86 %. ~ 45.08 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 8.41 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 63.53 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.23 %. ~ 36.47 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 24.10 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 51.60 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 33.56 %. ~ 48.40 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HeRoMaRinE is at ~ 1.07 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 29.96 % of the time HeRoMaRinE wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.57 %. ~ 70.04 % of the time HeRoMaRinE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Squirtle is at ~ 14.88 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 61.89 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 24.03 %. ~ 38.11 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 13.45 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 59.29 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.68 %. ~ 40.71 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pet is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 28.64 % of the time Pet wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.94 %. ~ 71.36 % of the time Pet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sora is at ~ 9.45 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 50.18 % of the time Sora wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.83 %. ~ 49.82 % of the time Sora loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- NesTea is at ~ 4.93 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 55.08 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.96 %. ~ 44.92 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 5.61 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 53.52 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.47 %. ~ 46.48 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 21.84 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 69.07 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.62 %. ~ 30.93 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - desRow is at ~ 0.18 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 22.33 % of the time desRow wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.81 %. ~ 77.67 % of the time desRow loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- PartinG is at ~ 23.03 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 74.36 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.97 %. ~ 25.64 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 10.51 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 53.36 % of the time Bbyong wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.69 %. ~ 46.64 % of the time Bbyong loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 1.42 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 40.36 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.53 %. ~ 59.64 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 1.20 % chances for top 16 points of Season 1 ~ 31.92 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.76 %. ~ 68.08 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
With the completion of WCS EU Group C, the knockout of one of the biggest threats in WCS EU, ForGG, had some big effects. ForGG went from 54.29% down to 0.09%. Protoss overall went from 55.29% up to 56.72%, Terran went from 27.02% to 24.34%, and Zerg went from 17.69% to 18.94%. The chances of having 1+ foreigners in the top 16 for season 1 went from 91.02% to 94.41%, 2+ foreigners went from 60.29% to 69.04%, and 3+ foreigners from 24.44% to 31.88%.
The effect of ForGG being knocked out affects all the players in WCS EU Premier. For example TLO went from 19.05% to 19.73%, Mvp went from 22.22% to 23.95%, and Welmu went from 14.68% to 15.11%.
On February 24 2014 01:26 urboss wrote: Can you explain why some players have 0% chance after just one WCS? e.g. ForGG or Innovation?
it's chance to get top 16 this season.
Yeah, I know, 0% just seems a bit pessimistic after just one WCS. Last year, there were also a few players in the last 16 without excelling in every WCS. Maybe I'm missing something.
On February 24 2014 01:26 urboss wrote: Can you explain why some players have 0% chance after just one WCS? e.g. ForGG or Innovation?
it's chance to get top 16 this season.
Yeah, I know, 0% just seems a bit pessimistic after just one WCS. Last year, there were also a few players in the last 16 without excelling in every WCS. Maybe I'm missing something.
This is just for season 1. ForGG/Innovation/etc. can still get top 16 for the year.
I was following your thread last year, and for some reason I haven't seen this (busy playing myself perhaps? ). The website looks great! Well done! Looking forward to much hype as time goes!
As the others have said, this only calculates WCS Season 1. I hope to add seasons 2 and 3 to have the complete year hopefully in March.
Thanks BaneRiders!
I just added a section to the front page that shows the most likely winners of each tournament. This will show the 50 most likely winners for each tournament (if there are 50 possible). Thanks Yakikorosu for the idea!
Before I had a lot of the graphs being processed in javascript. For example the summed percentages for races graph was done by javascript looping through all the players. This meant that your browser needed to load the full list of players who have greater than 0 chances. Simulating the full year means that everyone has some chance, so this list would be a few thousand players long and would slow down the load times of the front page. I changed it so all the processing for the graphs is done on the server side, and now the front page only loads the top 50 players.
In the process I changed the summed percentages for races pie chart to be subdivided into regions. So you can see how poorly GSL Terrans are doing (right now ~ 2.18%). Also do check out the new Possible Tournament Winners section if you haven't already.
I've made simulating the full year my #1 priority for this now, but after that I still have many plans.
I still want to do achievements, and WCS Point cutoffs (like last year's version had). (Random question - What should achievements give? On Xbox Live they give Gamerscore points, I obviously can't call them WCS Points lol.)
I also want to have a page for each tournament,team,country, and race which could highlight upcoming matches for the players/tournament, graphs of probability for the selected players, and of course the normal list of the selected players. This could also support arbitrary lists of players, so you could make a page for your favorite players and bookmark it.
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Feb 26 5:15pm GMT (GMT+00:00) FULL YEAR SIMULATIONS! Now simulating the full year, with WCS AM/EU/KR Seasons 1,2, and 3 with qualifiers. Also added TeSL Seasons 3 and 4 with qualifiers, and the TWOP (I kinda had to guess on some things for TWOP for now). Here's a preview for tonight's WCS AM Premier group! Starts in + Show Spoiler [Bomber, Jaedong, Arthur, Has in WCS AM…] +
- Bomber is at ~ 32.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.29 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.21 %. ~ 41.71 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 59.20 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.86 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 72.10 %. ~ 37.14 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 15.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.54 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.24 %. ~ 46.46 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.25 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Has is at ~ 5.51 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.31 % of the time Has wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.70 %. ~ 74.69 % of the time Has loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.73 %.
On February 27 2014 02:15 Die4Ever wrote: ~ 37.14 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.37 %.
Maybe I don't understand but it is going up?
- Jaedong is at ~ 59.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.87 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 72.05 %. ~ 37.13 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.32 %.
it means that if he loses then his chances to be top 16 for the year go from 59% down to 37%, but if he wins then his chances go from 59% up to 72%. His chances to win this match is 62.87%, his chances to lose this match are 37.13%. It's showing his chances for the match and how the match affects his chances to be top 16 for the year (aka Blizzcon/World Finals qualification)
On February 27 2014 02:15 Die4Ever wrote: ~ 37.14 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.37 %.
Maybe I don't understand but it is going up?
- Jaedong is at ~ 59.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.87 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 72.05 %. ~ 37.13 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.32 %.
it means that if he loses then his chances to be top 16 for the year go from 59% down to 37%, but if he wins then his chances go from 59% up to 72%. His chances to win this match is 62.87%, his chances to lose this match are 37.13%. It's showing his chances for the match and how the match affects his chances to be top 16 for the year (aka Blizzcon/World Finals qualification)
--------UPDATE Friday, Feb 28 5:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 set! With the round of 16 groups set, everyone always asks which is the group of death. Let's see how the groups affected players' chances. The biggest changes since the previous update, of course, comes from the players in the last group. ParalyzE and Stats were both knocked out, with ParalyzE going from ~ 1.88% chances for the year down to ~ 0.67% and Stats from ~ 1.74% down to ~ 0.81% for the year. The favorites, Curious and RorO, were the ones to advance, with Curious going from ~ 10.26% to ~ 13.72% and RorO going from ~ 6.33% to ~ 8.05%.
We can try to identify the group of death in terms of the changes in chances to win GSL Season 1.
Group A is little harder to analyze because RorO and Curious had big changes due to their wins. sOs went from ~ 9.92% to ~ 10.54% Life went from ~ 7.94% to ~ 8.14% Curious went from ~ 2.24% to ~ 3.59% RorO went from ~ 1.5% to ~ 2.24% This is a total change of ~ +2.91% (excluding Curious and RorO it's ~ +0.82%), and the total chances to win Code S for this group is now ~ 24.51%.
Group B had every player's chances to win Code S go down, except for Dear who went up slightly. Zest went from ~ 9.38% to ~ 8.8% Soulkey went from ~ 6.57% to ~ 5.99% Dear went from ~ 5.63% to ~ 5.74% Maru went from ~ 3.57% to ~ 3.27% For a total change of ~ -1.35%, and the total chances of winning Code S for this group is ~ 23.8%.
Every player in Group C had their chances to win Code S go down upon the drawing of the groups. Parting went from ~ 10.6% to ~ 10.5% Rain went from ~ 7.32% to ~ 6.7% Classic went from ~ 6.3% to ~ 6.07% Squirtle went from ~ 5.94% to ~ 5.83% For a total change of ~ -1.06%, and the total chances of winning Code S for this group is ~ 29.1%.
And then we have Group D. herO went from ~ 14.7% to ~ 15.06% Bbyong went from ~ 3.33% to ~ 3.21% Trap went from ~ 2.59% to ~ 2.78% soO went from ~ 1.59% to ~ 1.54% For a total change of ~ +0.38%, and the total chances of winning Code S for this group is ~ 22.59%.
So in terms of the change in chances, Group B players were hurt most by the group selections, but Group C has the highest total chances of winning Code S and also has all 4 players being hurt by the group selections. I'm going to give the edge to Group C and say it's the real group of death. -----------------------
On February 24 2014 13:27 Die4Ever wrote: I also want to have a page for each tournament,team,country, and race which could highlight upcoming matches for the players/tournament, graphs of probability for the selected players, and of course the normal list of the selected players. This could also support arbitrary lists of players, so you could make a page for your favorite players and bookmark it.
Tonight we start the GSL Round of 16! I think this a great set of 16 players because there's no player where it wouldn't be totally hyped if they won. You have players who could show a return to form like Life, Roro, or Squirtle. Then you have players who would be demonstrating continued strength and consistency like Rain, Maru, Soulkey, Dear. Players who have done well but just need to complete the final challenge of winning a premier korean tournament like herO, Classic, Zest, or Trap. And then finally you have Bbyong, who no one even expected to get this far, with the way Terrans are doing in Korea now it would be a spectacular win that would certainly earn him a bunch of fans.
Here is what WCS Predictor has to say about all 4 of these groups.
sOs has the #1 headband! - Life is at ~ 35.91 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.16 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 49.93 %. ~ 41.84 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.41 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Curious is at ~ 14.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.13 % of the time Curious wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.64 %. ~ 58.87 % of the time Curious loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.89 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RorO is at ~ 8.20 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.78 % of the time RorO wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.82 %. ~ 62.22 % of the time RorO loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 34.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.93 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 45.11 %. ~ 37.07 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 15.72 %.
- Soulkey is at ~ 19.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.54 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.11 %. ~ 50.46 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.20 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 12.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.02 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 21.16 %. ~ 53.98 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 25.93 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.26 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 38.69 %. ~ 46.74 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 11.40 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dear is at ~ 46.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.17 % of the time Dear wins and their chances go up to ~ 67.46 %. ~ 48.83 % of the time Dear loses and their chances go down to ~ 23.96 %.
- PartinG is at ~ 33.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.22 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 46.16 %. ~ 41.78 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 15.50 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rain is at ~ 37.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.88 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 56.95 %. ~ 53.12 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.40 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 18.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.28 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.79 %. ~ 52.72 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.65 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 29.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.62 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 46.25 %. ~ 52.38 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 13.57 %.
- soO is at ~ 5.14 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.12 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.03 %. ~ 62.88 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 12.81 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.14 % of the time Bbyong wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.11 %. ~ 54.86 % of the time Bbyong loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.34 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 11.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.41 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.75 %. ~ 50.59 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 76.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.33 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 88.22 %. ~ 31.67 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 50.37 %.
Here are their chances to win this season of Code S + Show Spoiler +
herO has a ~ 15.63 % chance to win. PartinG has a ~ 10.70 % chance to win. sOs has a ~ 10.52 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 8.15 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 8.02 % chance to win. Rain has a ~ 6.80 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 6.21 % chance to win. Dear has a ~ 5.83 % chance to win. Soulkey has a ~ 5.57 % chance to win. Squirtle has a ~ 5.43 % chance to win. Curious has a ~ 3.65 % chance to win. Bbyong has a ~ 3.38 % chance to win. Maru has a ~ 3.36 % chance to win. Trap has a ~ 3.12 % chance to win. RorO has a ~ 2.23 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 1.42 % chance to win.
On February 24 2014 13:27 Die4Ever wrote: I also want to have a page for each tournament,team,country, and race which could highlight upcoming matches for the players/tournament, graphs of probability for the selected players, and of course the normal list of the selected players. This could also support arbitrary lists of players, so you could make a page for your favorite players and bookmark it.
This idea would be really cool!
Thanks! I've been working on some other projects a bit, but I want to add this and also point cutoffs and some other things maybe this month. And after those things probably achievements.
Speaking of changes, I've been wondering if I should change the front page to move the top 50 list of players above the other stuff (upcoming matches, graphs), or leave it at the bottom where it is now?
Poll: Move Top 50 Players list to top of front page?
Move to top of page but make it shorter (16 to 25 maybe) (2)
67%
Move to top of page (0)
0%
Leave if at the bottom of the page (1)
33%
3 total votes
Your vote: Move Top 50 Players list to top of front page?
(Vote): Move to top of page but make it shorter (16 to 25 maybe) (Vote): Move to top of page (Vote): Leave if at the bottom of the page
I voted to move it to the top but make it shorter (and I still say cleaner) with a page dedicated to more complete standings. The other stuff is cool, but the main thing people want to see, especially when the end of the year rolls around, is who has the best chances of qualifying. That's what everyone fell in love with in the first place. Don't forget that!
I'd love to hear arguments from people for leaving it at the bottom though.
On March 05 2014 14:21 Sherlock117 wrote: I voted to move it to the top but make it shorter (and I still say cleaner) with a page dedicated to more complete standings. The other stuff is cool, but the main thing people want to see, especially when the end of the year rolls around, is who has the best chances of qualifying. That's what everyone fell in love with in the first place. Don't forget that!
I'd love to hear arguments from people for leaving it at the bottom though.
San is close to 100% because he already has a minimum of 1,350 points, and he has a great Aligulac rating, and he's extremely favored to do well in the TeSL tournaments.
--------UPDATE Friday, Mar 07 1:35am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Round of 16 set! WCS EU Premier round of 16 has been set. Here are the group previews as they appear right now.
- Mvp is at ~ 36.48 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.44 % of the time Mvp wins and their chances go up to ~ 45.62 %. ~ 34.56 % of the time Mvp loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.18 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 25.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.03 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 36.49 %. ~ 45.97 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 13.50 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 18.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.66 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.22 %. ~ 55.34 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 11.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.87 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 21.31 %. ~ 64.13 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.92 %.
- jjakji is at ~ 81.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 77.44 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 88.02 %. ~ 22.56 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 59.46 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 19.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.02 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.20 %. ~ 54.98 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 3.94 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.13 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.90 %. ~ 69.87 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.80 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 7.70 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.41 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 12.76 %. ~ 52.59 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.14 %.
- BabyKnight is at ~ 4.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.74 % of the time BabyKnight wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.05 %. ~ 68.26 % of the time BabyKnight loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 16.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.27 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.34 %. ~ 60.73 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 26.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.51 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 35.51 %. ~ 39.49 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 65.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.48 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.94 %. ~ 31.52 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 43.20 %.
- Nerchio is at ~ 14.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.58 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 24.89 %. ~ 62.42 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 64.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.41 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 78.09 %. ~ 40.59 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 44.79 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.70 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.69 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.95 %. ~ 31.31 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 7.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.31 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.34 %. ~ 65.69 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.80 %.
- soO is at ~ 4.86 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.11 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.41 %. ~ 62.89 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 12.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.12 % of the time Bbyong wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.71 %. ~ 54.88 % of the time Bbyong loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.25 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 10.65 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.44 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.71 %. ~ 50.56 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.74 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 75.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.33 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 88.03 %. ~ 31.67 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 49.94 %.
On March 11 2014 23:23 Dalnore wrote: There is IEM WC soon which is Tier 1 event and can influence points distribution a lot. Will it be added to the predictor?
Oh wow it's giving WCS Points now, I'll add it in this week.
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Mar 11 8:15pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Katowice World Championships Added! Added IEM Katowice along with the open bracket and the full player listings for both. The brackets are not set yet for the round of 16, but they are set for the open bracket. Right now the open bracket matches are not showing up in the upcoming matches highlight yet because they are unscheduled in Liquipedia, so WCS Predictor does not automatically show them. Later I will be able to manually put them in if they are still unscheduled. Here are the players' chances for winning + Show Spoiler +
herO has a ~ 13.97 % chance to win. San has a ~ 11.38 % chance to win. sOs has a ~ 11.16 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 10.56 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 9.09 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 8.66 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. NaNiwa has a ~ 5.46 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win. HerO has a ~ 4.86 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 4.56 % chance to win. Dear has a ~ 1.75 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 1.42 % chance to win. Oz has a ~ 1.28 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win. Rogue has a ~ 0.99 % chance to win. Revival has a ~ 0.81 % chance to win. Leenock has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. Nerchio has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. HasuObs has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. Tefel has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. MaNa has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. JYP has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. uThermal has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. DieStar has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. ParanOid has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. okai has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win.
- Polt is at ~ 86.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 78.32 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 91.80 %. ~ 21.68 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 67.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 1.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.07 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.74 %. ~ 63.93 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Minigun is at ~ 2.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.99 % of the time Minigun wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.16 %. ~ 44.01 % of the time Minigun loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.40 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.61 % of the time neeb wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.92 %. ~ 70.39 % of the time neeb loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.18 %.
- PartinG is at ~ 27.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.97 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.89 %. ~ 42.03 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 13.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rain is at ~ 29.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.98 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 46.30 %. ~ 53.02 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 14.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.00 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.74 %. ~ 53.00 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 23.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.05 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.40 %. ~ 51.95 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.71 %.
--------UPDATE Thursday, Mar 13 4:05am GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Katowice Open Bracket Preview and GSL Quarterfinals Preview! I also made a slight change to the Possible Tournament Winners section.
- Jaedong is at ~ 33.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.28 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.19 %. ~ 15.72 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 27.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - scoobers is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 15.72 % of the time scoobers wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 84.28 % of the time scoobers loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- JYP is at ~ 0.18 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.28 % of the time JYP wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.18 %. ~ 51.72 % of the time JYP loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0.16 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.72 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.17 %. ~ 48.28 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
- HasuObs is at ~ 4.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.06 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.07 %. ~ 31.94 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.31 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParanOid is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.94 % of the time ParanOid wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 68.06 % of the time ParanOid loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Leenock is at ~ 3.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 90.38 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.11 %. ~ 9.62 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - funkay is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 9.62 % of the time funkay wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 90.38 % of the time funkay loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- HyuN is at ~ 42.80 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.79 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 43.24 %. ~ 10.21 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 38.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Forte is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 10.21 % of the time Forte wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 89.79 % of the time Forte loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Nerchio is at ~ 13.86 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.69 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 14.27 %. ~ 23.31 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DieStar is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 23.31 % of the time DieStar wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 76.69 % of the time DieStar loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Tefel is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.03 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 40.97 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.97 % of the time uThermal wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 59.03 % of the time uThermal loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
- Dear is at ~ 26.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 80.48 % of the time Dear wins and their chances go up to ~ 27.86 %. ~ 19.52 % of the time Dear loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - okai is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.52 % of the time okai wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 80.48 % of the time okai loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
herO has a ~ 13.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 95.75 % to ~ 100.00 % jjakji has a ~ 11.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 89.15 % to ~ 100.00 % San has a ~ 11.20 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100.00 % sOs has a ~ 11.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 61.44 % to ~ 99.90 % Polt has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.19 % to ~ 100.00 % StarDust has a ~ 8.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 79.33 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 5.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 68.38 % to ~ 100.00 % NaNiwa has a ~ 5.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.91 % to ~ 75.96 % MC has a ~ 5.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 76.98 % to ~ 100.00 % HerO has a ~ 4.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 65.19 % to ~ 100.00 % TaeJa has a ~ 4.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 54.79 % to ~ 99.51 % Dear has a ~ 1.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 26.49 % to ~ 100.00 % Jaedong has a ~ 1.40 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.19 % to ~ 99.95 % Oz has a ~ 1.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.44 % to ~ 94.82 % HyuN has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.80 % to ~ 99.50 % Rogue has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.67 % to ~ 12.67 % Revival has a ~ 0.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 94.07 % HasuObs has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.83 % to ~ 66.41 % Leenock has a ~ 0.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.06 % to ~ 55.91 % Nerchio has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.86 % to ~ 94.98 % Tefel has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.60 % MaNa has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 4.89 % JYP has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 5.49 % uThermal has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % DieStar has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % ParanOid has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 %
sOs has the #1 headband! - sOs is at ~ 61.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.03 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.31 %. ~ 50.97 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 48.10 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 33.43 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.97 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 48.05 %. ~ 49.03 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 18.22 %.
- Rain is at ~ 43.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.70 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 61.03 %. ~ 58.30 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 95.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.30 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.27 %. ~ 41.70 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 90.84 %.
- Life is at ~ 68.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.74 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 80.37 %. ~ 40.26 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 50.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 18.14 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.26 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.87 %. ~ 59.74 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.89 %.
- PartinG is at ~ 41.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.58 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 52.04 %. ~ 34.42 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 9.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.42 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.83 %. ~ 65.58 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.93 %.
herO has a ~ 19.40 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 95.75 % to ~ 100.00 % PartinG has a ~ 18.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.57 % to ~ 99.76 % sOs has a ~ 14.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 61.44 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 14.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 68.38 % to ~ 100.00 % Zest has a ~ 13.50 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.43 % to ~ 99.73 % Rain has a ~ 9.90 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 43.77 % to ~ 100.00 % Maru has a ~ 6.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.14 % to ~ 99.58 % soO has a ~ 3.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.06 % to ~ 99.30 %
- Polt is at ~ 98.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.38 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.69 %. ~ 49.62 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 96.41 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 99.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.62 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.98 %. ~ 50.38 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 98.92 %.
sOs has the #1 headband! - TaeJa is at ~ 72.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.32 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 86.74 %. ~ 59.68 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 62.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 79.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.68 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 88.79 %. ~ 40.32 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 64.89 %.
herO has a ~ 28.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.45 % to ~ 100.00 % sOs has a ~ 28.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 79.15 % to ~ 99.88 % Polt has a ~ 25.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.06 % to ~ 100.00 % TaeJa has a ~ 17.36 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 72.35 % to ~ 99.51 %
sOs has the #1 headband! - sOs is at ~ 88.47 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.29 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.88 %. ~ 54.71 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 79.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 99.98 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.71 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 45.29 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.97 %.
herO has a ~ 54.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.98 % to ~ 100.00 % sOs has a ~ 45.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 88.47 % to ~ 99.88 %
sOs has the #1 headband! - sOs is at ~ 99.88 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.97 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 50.03 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 32.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.03 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 46.59 %. ~ 49.97 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 17.95 %.
- Rain is at ~ 42.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.71 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 59.85 %. ~ 59.29 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 30.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 99.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.29 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 40.71 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.91 %.
- Life is at ~ 66.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.99 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 80.37 %. ~ 41.01 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 46.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 17.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.01 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.89 %. ~ 58.99 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.43 %.
- PartinG is at ~ 40.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.61 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 51.15 %. ~ 34.39 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 8.66 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.39 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.10 %. ~ 65.61 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.72 %.
herO has a ~ 20.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.96 % to ~ 100.00 % PartinG has a ~ 17.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 40.79 % to ~ 99.61 % sOs has a ~ 15.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.88 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 13.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 66.68 % to ~ 100.00 % Zest has a ~ 13.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 32.28 % to ~ 99.50 % Rain has a ~ 9.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.45 % to ~ 100.00 % Maru has a ~ 6.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.64 % to ~ 99.34 % soO has a ~ 3.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.66 % to ~ 98.81 %
- Rain is at ~ 60.09 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.25 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 83.11 %. ~ 58.75 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 43.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 54.66 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.75 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 73.24 %. ~ 41.25 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 28.20 %.
- Life is at ~ 83.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.13 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 92.18 %. ~ 28.87 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 62.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 17.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.87 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 41.45 %. ~ 71.13 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.16 %.
INnoVation has a ~ 28.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.34 % to ~ 10.89 % Patience has a ~ 24.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 7.10 % Flash has a ~ 20.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.16 % to ~ 2.24 % Hurricane has a ~ 20.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.49 % to ~ 2.90 % Creator has a ~ 20.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.44 % to ~ 2.88 % Avenge has a ~ 19.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.09 % to ~ 2.20 % CoCa has a ~ 19.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 1.77 % TY has a ~ 18.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.70 % to ~ 1.45 % Super has a ~ 18.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 1.73 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 18.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 1.80 % Trust has a ~ 17.90 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.80 % to ~ 1.65 % RagnaroK has a ~ 17.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.68 % to ~ 1.43 % duckdeok has a ~ 17.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.67 % to ~ 1.46 % MarineKing has a ~ 17.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.50 % to ~ 1.03 % KangHo has a ~ 16.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.43 % to ~ 0.94 % First has a ~ 16.70 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 1.33 % NAKSEO has a ~ 16.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.47 % to ~ 1.06 % GuMiho has a ~ 16.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.50 % to ~ 1.09 % YoDa has a ~ 16.20 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.44 % to ~ 0.98 % Hack has a ~ 15.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.30 % to ~ 0.63 % Ryung has a ~ 15.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 0.55 % Impact has a ~ 15.40 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 0.74 % Dream has a ~ 14.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.40 % to ~ 0.90 % EffOrt has a ~ 14.60 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 0.76 % Rogue has a ~ 14.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 0.85 % YugiOh has a ~ 13.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 0.63 % ByuN has a ~ 13.84 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 0.45 % Puzzle has a ~ 13.70 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 0.40 % Cure has a ~ 13.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.34 % Armani has a ~ 13.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 0.50 % Seed has a ~ 13.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.22 % to ~ 0.50 % Reality has a ~ 12.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.39 % Sacsri has a ~ 12.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.45 % Sniper has a ~ 12.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.39 % KeeN has a ~ 12.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.36 % hyvaa has a ~ 11.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.31 % sC has a ~ 11.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.40 % Sleep has a ~ 11.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 0.33 % Billowy has a ~ 11.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.35 % Shine has a ~ 11.50 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 0.28 % JYP has a ~ 11.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.32 % Pigbaby has a ~ 11.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.34 % FanTaSy has a ~ 10.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 0.21 % Lyn has a ~ 10.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.14 % Center has a ~ 10.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 0.22 % Sting has a ~ 10.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 0.20 % Golden has a ~ 10.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.17 % ZerO has a ~ 9.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 0.23 % Terminator has a ~ 9.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.16 % eMotion has a ~ 9.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 0.19 % Bunny has a ~ 8.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.07 %
Also the results of the WCS EU Group that was played today with Mvp, Bunny, MMA, and Vortix. Vortix went from ~ 15.26% up to ~ 40.81 % MMA went from ~ 24.02 % up to ~ 33 % Mvp went from ~ 29.79 $ down to ~ 12.55 % Bunny went from ~ 8.36 % down to ~ 3.83 %
Vortix is also now the top foreign hope! VortiX ~ 5.52 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 40.78 % chance overall. Snute ~ 2.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 21.40 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 2.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.40 % chance overall. Nerchio ~ 1.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.63 % chance overall. NaNiwa ~ 1.11 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 11.31 % chance overall. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Mar 26 3:30pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Season 2 Qualifiers Completed! It seems that these qualifiers turned out well for the participants of WCS AM, with most of the AM Premier players seeing around an 0.8% increase in chances. This is due partly to the guarantee of strong players like Innovation, Flash, Super, and Rogue being locked into GSL instead of the rare possibility of them going to WCS AM. Also helping them is Byul forfeiting his spot in WCS AM Challenger to qualify for GSL. In fact, Byul is the only person that successfully qualified and yet his chances went down due to the stronger set of players in GSL. Byul is the #4 biggest loser in chances for this update, going down by ~ 4.09 %, from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 2.59 %. From the first GSL semifinal, Rain vs Zest, we see Zest went up by ~ 19.46 %, from ~ 53.57 % to ~ 73.03 %, while Rain went down by ~ 16.69 %, from ~ 60% to ~ 43.31 %. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
VortiX went up by ~ 25.68 %, going from ~ 15.26 % to ~ 40.94 % Zest went up by ~ 19.46 %, going from ~ 53.57 % to ~ 73.03 % MMA went up by ~ 9.03 %, going from ~ 24.02 % to ~ 33.05 % INnoVation went up by ~ 3.08 %, going from ~ 6.29 % to ~ 9.37 % Nerchio went up by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 10.82 % to ~ 12.66 % RagnaroK went up by ~ 1.70 %, going from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 2.43 % Bomber went up by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 39.10 % to ~ 40.33 % Sage went up by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 1.05 % TaeJa went up by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 64.12 % to ~ 65.10 % Welmu went up by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 18.40 % to ~ 19.38 % Super went up by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 1.06 % to ~ 1.94 % KingKong went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.79 % MajOr went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 3.06 % to ~ 3.84 % HuK went up by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 12.04 % to ~ 12.81 % Jim went up by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.75 % Check went up by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.65 % HerO went up by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 49.22 % to ~ 49.86 % Alicia went up by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 26.32 % to ~ 26.94 % TY went up by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 0.75 % to ~ 1.37 % Flash went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 1.23 % to ~ 1.80 % Rogue went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 0.40 % to ~ 0.96 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.56 % Life went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 82.56 % to ~ 83.08 %
Mvp went down by ~ 17.21 %, going from ~ 29.79 % to ~ 12.58 % Rain went down by ~ 16.69 %, going from ~ 60.00 % to ~ 43.31 % Bunny went down by ~ 4.53 %, going from ~ 8.36 % to ~ 3.83 % ByuL went down by ~ 4.09 %, going from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 2.59 % PartinG went down by ~ 3.01 %, going from ~ 20.35 % to ~ 17.35 % StarDust went down by ~ 2.96 %, going from ~ 67.96 % to ~ 65.00 % Patience went down by ~ 2.86 %, going from ~ 4.44 % to ~ 1.57 % Snute went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 21.24 % to ~ 19.48 % Dear went down by ~ 1.59 %, going from ~ 38.44 % to ~ 36.85 % MC went down by ~ 1.57 %, going from ~ 64.84 % to ~ 63.27 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.50 %, going from ~ 21.26 % to ~ 19.75 % Creator went down by ~ 1.31 %, going from ~ 1.59 % to ~ 0.28 % Hurricane went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 1.54 % to ~ 0.48 % HyuN went down by ~ 1.02 %, going from ~ 48.97 % to ~ 47.95 % Classic went down by ~ 1.00 %, going from ~ 9.88 % to ~ 8.88 % Oz went down by ~ 0.95 %, going from ~ 14.75 % to ~ 13.80 % TLO went down by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 11.36 % to ~ 10.42 % NaNiwa went down by ~ 0.80 %, going from ~ 12.11 % to ~ 11.31 % BlinG went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 5.10 % to ~ 4.34 % BBoongBBoong went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 0.21 % Avenge went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 1.14 % to ~ 0.49 % Hydra went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 3.68 % to ~ 3.03 % CoCa went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 0.92 % to ~ 0.38 % MarineKing went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 0.66 % to ~ 0.16 %
Here are some previews for upcoming matches in WCS EU and the other GSL semifinal with Life vs soO. Make sure to check the website for updates on these previews, because results from 1 match can have big effects on other match previews. Starts in + Show Spoiler [jjakji, Snute, Grubby, Dayshi in WCS E…] +
- jjakji is at ~ 85.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 74.67 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 92.22 %. ~ 25.33 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 66.56 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 19.48 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.49 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.26 %. ~ 49.51 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 3.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.15 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.36 %. ~ 68.85 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 4.09 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.69 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.08 %. ~ 56.31 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.77 %.
- BabyKnight is at ~ 2.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.65 % of the time BabyKnight wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.58 %. ~ 67.35 % of the time BabyKnight loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.38 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 10.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.18 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.90 %. ~ 60.82 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 19.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.02 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.98 %. ~ 39.98 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 65.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.16 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.32 %. ~ 31.84 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 42.92 %.
- Life is at ~ 83.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.16 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 91.75 %. ~ 28.84 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 61.69 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 16.81 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.84 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 40.90 %. ~ 71.16 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.04 %.
- Nerchio is at ~ 12.66 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.89 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.89 %. ~ 61.11 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 63.27 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.24 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 77.41 %. ~ 42.76 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 44.35 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.93 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.39 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 28.61 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 4.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.48 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.44 %. ~ 67.52 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.36 %.
From the Code S finals Zest went up by ~ 20.38 %, going from ~ 78.91 % to ~ 99.28 % soO went down by ~ 28.17 %, going from ~ 42.66 % to ~ 14.49 %.
From WCS AM Group A HyuN went up by ~ 11.93 %, going from ~ 46.80 % to ~ 58.72 % Oz went up by ~ 8.04 %, going from ~ 14.24 % to ~ 22.29 % Heart went down by ~ 5.48 %, going from ~ 8.20 % to ~ 2.72 % puCK went down by ~ 3.99 %, going from ~ 7.42 % to ~ 3.42 %
From WCS AM Group B Revival went up by ~ 7.95 %, going from ~ 14.35 % to ~ 22.30 % Alicia went up by ~ 7.63 %, going from ~ 27.43 % to ~ 35.06 % HuK went down by ~ 8.23 %, going from ~ 12.80 % to ~ 4.57 % neeb went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 1.36 % to ~ 0.62 %
Also Huk lost the #2 headband to Revival who then lost it to Alicia. So now Alicia is the current #2 headband holder.
- TaeJa is at ~ 63.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 68.49 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 73.55 %. ~ 31.51 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 42.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 7.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.89 % of the time MacSed wins and their chances go up to ~ 12.71 %. ~ 62.11 % of the time MacSed loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 4.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.87 % of the time TooDming wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.49 %. ~ 58.13 % of the time TooDming loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 16.04 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.76 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.80 %. ~ 48.24 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.77 %.
- Bomber is at ~ 37.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.78 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 46.71 %. ~ 34.22 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 95.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.89 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.82 %. ~ 27.11 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 86.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - CranK is at ~ 8.32 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.20 % of the time CranK wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.51 %. ~ 67.80 % of the time CranK loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.91 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 3.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.14 % of the time XiGua wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.74 %. ~ 70.86 % of the time XiGua loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.00 %.
Soon I will add the upcoming match highlights for Code A, the GSL Global Championship, the many announced Dreamhacks, MLG Anaheim, and Lone Star Clash 3 all to the simulation. All these extra announced WCS Points added into the field are gonna shake things up a bit.
~ 11.51 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 89.73 %. ~ 13.52 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 60.32 %.
11.51 + 13.52 = ~25, but it should be 100%.
Thanks, caught the bug. It was shuffling the brackets for the ro8 instead of using the already set bracket. This being fixed shouldn't have a huge effect on anyone's chances, but it will fix that display issue with the upcoming match highlights. Running new simulations now, fix will show in a few minutes.
WCS AM quarterfinals are now set, and GSL Code A Season 2 now shows up in the upcoming matches highlights. Hopefully tonight I can finish adding the Dreamhacks and the GSL Global Championship. Lone Star Clash 3 and MLG Anaheim don't have enough info for me to put them in yet, at least not in liquipedia.
Anyways check out all the upcoming matches for each region! http://sc2.4ever.tv/
GSL Global Championship and the 5 announced DreamHacks have been added. These didn't have as big of an effect as I thought because of the lower number of WCS Points compared to the WCS regionals, and repeat winners being fairly unlikely except for those with really high Aligulac ratings, who mostly already had really good chances anyways.
Some example changes. San went from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 99.96 % Taeja went from ~ 73.21 % to ~ 71.51 % Vortix went from ~ 34.93 % to ~ 37.22 % Zest went from ~ 99.29 % to ~ 99.37 % soO went from ~ 14.52 % to ~ 19.4 % elfi went from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.13 %
Chances of 3+ foreigners in the top 16 went from ~ 22.5 % to ~ 23.75 %
- MC is at ~ 67.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.89 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 86.73 %. ~ 63.11 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 56.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 75.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 63.11 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 85.46 %. ~ 36.89 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 57.94 %.
- jjakji is at ~ 85.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.01 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 95.84 %. ~ 50.99 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 76.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 36.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.99 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 50.94 %. ~ 49.01 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 22.47 %.
- MMA is at ~ 43.80 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.96 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.60 %. ~ 37.04 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 23.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 23.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.04 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 40.06 %. ~ 62.96 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.20 %.
- San is at ~ 99.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.69 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 37.31 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.90 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 21.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.31 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 36.98 %. ~ 62.69 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.43 %.
San has a ~ 20.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.96 % to ~ 100.00 % MMA has a ~ 17.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 43.80 % to ~ 99.60 % StarDust has a ~ 15.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 75.31 % to ~ 100.00 % jjakji has a ~ 15.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 85.75 % to ~ 100.00 % VortiX has a ~ 11.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 36.99 % to ~ 99.63 % MC has a ~ 7.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 67.83 % to ~ 100.00 % Welmu has a ~ 6.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 21.59 % to ~ 99.81 % Snute has a ~ 6.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.78 % to ~ 99.86 %
Alicia has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Bomber is at ~ 40.51 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.77 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.61 %. ~ 49.23 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 24.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 33.86 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.23 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 48.84 %. ~ 50.77 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.33 %.
- TaeJa is at ~ 70.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.70 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 84.69 %. ~ 48.30 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 55.50 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 53.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.30 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.47 %. ~ 51.70 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 37.26 %.
- Polt is at ~ 98.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.36 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.75 %. ~ 28.64 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 93.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 18.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.64 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 36.87 %. ~ 71.36 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.74 %.
- Oz is at ~ 20.39 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.01 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.09 %. ~ 58.99 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 23.80 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.99 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 32.19 %. ~ 41.01 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 11.73 %.
Polt has a ~ 29.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.00 % to ~ 100.00 % TaeJa has a ~ 15.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 70.59 % to ~ 100.00 % HyuN has a ~ 14.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 53.78 % to ~ 100.00 % Bomber has a ~ 11.60 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 40.51 % to ~ 99.99 % Alicia has a ~ 10.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.86 % to ~ 99.88 % Arthur has a ~ 8.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.80 % to ~ 98.77 % Oz has a ~ 5.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.39 % to ~ 99.97 % Revival has a ~ 4.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.22 % to ~ 99.98 %
With the completion of the WCS EU Semifinals - San stayed at ~ 99.99% Jjakji went from ~ 95.95 % down to ~ 90.38 % MC went from ~ 87.08 % up to ~ 98.67 % MMA went from ~ 54.72 % up to ~ 77.24 %
With the completion of the WCS AM Semifinals - Alicia went from ~ 51.7 % down to ~ 26.89 % Revival went from ~ 46.92 % down to ~ 22.62 % HyuN went from ~ 72.75 % up to ~ 90.69 % Oz went from ~ 39.74 % up to ~ 63.07 %
- MMA is at ~ 77.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.86 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.58 %. ~ 49.14 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 54.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 98.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.14 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 50.86 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 97.38 %.
HyuN has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - HyuN is at ~ 90.69 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.03 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 35.97 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 74.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 63.07 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.97 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.97 %. ~ 64.03 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 42.33 %.
We also see seemigly unrelated players such as Jaedong, Polt, sOs, and Liquid Hero losing around 0.5% to 1% with the results of these semifinals. I think this is mainly because of Jjakji and San being knocked out, which causes the WCS Points to be more spread out as opposed to a few guys at the top hoarding them all. Jaedong went from ~ 25.12 % down to ~ 24.52 % Polt went from ~ 93.34 % down to ~ 92.55 % sOs went from ~ 97.55 % down to ~ 97.02 % Liquid Hero went from ~ 43.54 % down to ~ 42.43 %
Also note that the winner of WCS AM takes the #2 headband into the GSL Global Championship, where it might fall into the hands of a GSL player so the #2 can finally challenge sOs for the #1! -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Apr 14 3:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS Season 1 Completed! Here are the changes in chances from the WCS EU and AM finals. + Show Spoiler [Results] +
HyuN went up by ~ 9.31 %, going from ~ 90.69 % to ~ 100.00 % MC went up by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 98.67 % to ~ 100.00 % MMA went down by ~ 23.83 %, going from ~ 77.24 % to ~ 53.41 % Oz went down by ~ 17.86 %, going from ~ 63.07 % to ~ 45.21 %
#1MC is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 3125 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #5 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 98.95 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #6 Jinair sOs is at ~ 98.00 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 93.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1950 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 91.95 %, Min WCS Points: 1925 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 56.50 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #10 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 54.29 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 53.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #12 Acer MMA is at ~ 53.41 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 45.21 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #14 Liquid HerO is at ~ 44.50 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #15 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 25.18 %, Min WCS Points: 775 #17Bomber is at ~ 24.40 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #18 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 23.65 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 23.40 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #20 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 22.41 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #21 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 19.77 %, Min WCS Points: 725 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 19.72 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 18.69 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #24 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 16.29 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #25 Liquid Snute is at ~ 14.25 %, Min WCS Points: 775
GSL Global Championship MMA has a ~ 20.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 53.41 % to ~ 61.46 % Zest has a ~ 19.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 99.97 % MC has a ~ 17.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % HyuN has a ~ 14.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % soO has a ~ 6.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.69 % to ~ 26.75 % Oz has a ~ 5.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 45.21 % to ~ 58.72 % PartinG has a ~ 3.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.77 % to ~ 25.12 % Squirtle has a ~ 2.40 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.01 % to ~ 7.30 % Maru has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.77 % to ~ 13.92 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 1.80 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.57 % to ~ 6.71 % Flash has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 3.06 % RorO has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.48 % to ~ 0.65 % Impact has a ~ 0.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.20 % Hack has a ~ 0.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 0.15 % FanTaSy has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.37 % to ~ 0.50 % Action has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.21 %
GSL S2 Code S herO has a ~ 12.20 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.95 % to ~ 100.00 % sOs has a ~ 11.58 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.00 % to ~ 100.00 % Zest has a ~ 7.36 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100.00 % INnoVation has a ~ 7.20 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.29 % to ~ 99.76 % PartinG has a ~ 7.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.77 % to ~ 100.00 % Rain has a ~ 6.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 40.12 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 5.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 53.49 % to ~ 100.00 % Solar has a ~ 5.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.11 % to ~ 99.46 % Classic has a ~ 4.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 100.00 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.25 % to ~ 97.97 % Maru has a ~ 3.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.77 % to ~ 100.00 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 2.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.57 % to ~ 97.43 % YongHwa has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.94 % to ~ 92.83 % Squirtle has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.01 % to ~ 99.41 % Bbyong has a ~ 2.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.61 % to ~ 99.96 % ByuL has a ~ 1.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 95.41 % soO has a ~ 1.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.69 % to ~ 100.00 % Curious has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 97.82 % Leenock has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.72 % to ~ 95.76 % Flash has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 94.74 % Trap has a ~ 1.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 97.37 % Dark has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.08 % to ~ 94.73 % RagnaroK has a ~ 0.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.70 % to ~ 81.69 % Hydra has a ~ 0.90 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.98 % to ~ 95.37 % Symbol has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.64 % to ~ 91.53 % ParalyzE has a ~ 0.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.35 % to ~ 93.85 % TY has a ~ 0.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 80.72 % SuperNova has a ~ 0.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.33 % to ~ 91.35 % TAiLS has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.56 % to ~ 75.92 % Rogue has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.78 % to ~ 99.30 % eMotion has a ~ 0.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 76.67 % Billowy has a ~ 0.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.46 % to ~ 76.78 % Panic has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 93.88 % Shine has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.46 % to ~ 84.21 % FanTaSy has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.37 % to ~ 92.21 % Ruin has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.22 % to ~ 87.78 % Stats has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 92.77 % Stork has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 82.00 % TRUE has a ~ 0.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 92.65 % MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 87.33 % Action has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 85.98 % Pet has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 91.71 % Choya has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 65.89 % hitmaN has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 61.05 %
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 13.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % jjakji has a ~ 10.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 91.95 % to ~ 100.00 % MMA has a ~ 9.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 53.41 % to ~ 100.00 % StarDust has a ~ 8.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 56.50 % to ~ 100.00 % MC has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % ForGG has a ~ 7.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.41 % to ~ 100.00 % VortiX has a ~ 7.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.72 % to ~ 100.00 % Mvp has a ~ 5.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.88 % to ~ 99.70 % NaNiwa has a ~ 4.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.69 % to ~ 99.96 % Snute has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.25 % to ~ 100.00 % Welmu has a ~ 3.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.44 % to ~ 100.00 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.08 % to ~ 99.57 % HasuObs has a ~ 2.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.75 % to ~ 96.14 % Bunny has a ~ 1.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.62 % to ~ 97.55 % Genius has a ~ 1.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.03 % to ~ 95.23 % Happy has a ~ 1.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.87 % to ~ 95.43 % TLO has a ~ 1.00 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 100.00 % BlinG has a ~ 0.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.75 % to ~ 96.63 % Starbuck has a ~ 0.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.70 % to ~ 95.11 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.81 % to ~ 99.42 % BabyKnight has a ~ 0.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 99.37 % Bly has a ~ 0.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.28 % to ~ 90.88 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 0.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 94.24 % Grubby has a ~ 0.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 96.62 % Kas has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 89.28 % TargA has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 89.74 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 89.26 % Lilbow has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 93.05 % sLivko has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 88.31 % NightEnD has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 87.33 % Patience has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.83 % to ~ 100.00 % Dear has a ~ 0.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.80 % to ~ 100.00 % KingKong has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.84 % to ~ 90.66 % Sage has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 91.00 % Sora has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 96.24 % elfi has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 87.58 % First has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 85.25 % Super has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 92.32 % Petraeus has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 81.13 % Avenge has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.27 % to ~ 81.98 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 89.64 % Miniraser has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 89.53 % Harstem has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 86.27 % viOLet has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 88.21 % RorO has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.48 % to ~ 99.98 % CoCa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.24 % to ~ 88.21 % Trust has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 87.51 % MaNa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 93.53 % duckdeok has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 80.51 % HeRoMaRinE has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 95.82 % JonnyREcco has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 81.43 %
WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 14.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 93.88 % to ~ 100.00 % HyuN has a ~ 11.60 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % TaeJa has a ~ 10.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 54.29 % to ~ 100.00 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.18 % to ~ 100.00 % Bomber has a ~ 6.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 24.40 % to ~ 100.00 % HerO has a ~ 6.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 44.50 % to ~ 100.00 % Alicia has a ~ 5.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.40 % to ~ 100.00 % Arthur has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.95 % to ~ 99.99 % Revival has a ~ 3.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.65 % to ~ 100.00 % Oz has a ~ 3.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 45.21 % to ~ 100.00 % Scarlett has a ~ 3.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.66 % to ~ 96.17 % CranK has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.76 % to ~ 99.52 % HuK has a ~ 2.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.22 % to ~ 97.42 % aLive has a ~ 1.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.53 % to ~ 92.34 % MacSed has a ~ 1.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.19 % to ~ 97.15 % Sen has a ~ 1.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.70 % to ~ 100.00 % MajOr has a ~ 1.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.73 % to ~ 99.94 % puCK has a ~ 1.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 99.95 % Heart has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.81 % to ~ 97.35 % TooDming has a ~ 1.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.39 % to ~ 99.37 % Top has a ~ 1.08 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.07 % to ~ 90.88 % XiGua has a ~ 1.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.13 % to ~ 96.93 % MaSa has a ~ 0.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.67 % to ~ 91.14 % NesTea has a ~ 0.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.48 % to ~ 94.41 % Has has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 99.99 % Minigun has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.81 % to ~ 89.11 % TheStC has a ~ 0.30 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 88.87 % neeb has a ~ 0.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 99.31 % Illusion has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 93.47 % Jim has a ~ 0.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 89.95 % Patience has a ~ 0.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.83 % to ~ 100.00 % Dear has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.80 % to ~ 100.00 % hendralisk has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.20 % to ~ 81.19 % KingKong has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.84 % to ~ 93.01 % Sage has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 92.95 % Kane has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 84.31 % iaguz has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 82.52 % Sora has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 96.96 % First has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 86.11 % PiG has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.10 % to ~ 87.32 % Suppy has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 84.56 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 91.00 % Super has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 93.53 % Avenge has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.27 % to ~ 86.37 % Slam has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 97.69 % viOLet has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 90.54 % RorO has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.48 % to ~ 99.98 % CoCa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.24 % to ~ 90.02 % Trust has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 89.50 % Ian has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 98.45 % mOOnGLaDe has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 80.74 %
I have also updated the bbcode generation to output not just the upcoming matches, but also the top 25, biggest winners and losers, and also tournament winning chances. Check that out here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?bbcode=1
And remember that I update the website much more often than I update this thread, the website is usually updated everyday when there are WCS matches. Here are all the Code A previews as they are now. + Show Spoiler [Code A Previews] +
GSL S2 Code A - Curious is at ~ 2.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.11 % of the time Curious wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.57 %. ~ 41.89 % of the time Curious loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RagnaroK is at ~ 1.70 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.59 % of the time RagnaroK wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.72 %. ~ 42.41 % of the time RagnaroK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.30 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.50 % of the time Stats wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.63 %. ~ 68.50 % of the time Stats loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.81 % of the time Rogue wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.34 %. ~ 47.19 % of the time Rogue loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Flash is at ~ 2.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.58 % of the time Flash wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.03 %. ~ 43.42 % of the time Flash loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hydra is at ~ 1.98 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.20 % of the time Hydra wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.45 %. ~ 48.80 % of the time Hydra loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.84 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.92 %. ~ 55.16 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Panic is at ~ 0.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.37 % of the time Panic wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.15 %. ~ 52.63 % of the time Panic loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code A - SuperNova is at ~ 1.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.44 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.98 %. ~ 38.56 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.30 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TY is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.58 % of the time TY wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.98 %. ~ 48.42 % of the time TY loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Choya is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.44 % of the time Choya wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 61.56 % of the time Choya loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0.20 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.54 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.36 %. ~ 51.46 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Squirtle is at ~ 6.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.69 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.90 %. ~ 28.31 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.13 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.38 %. ~ 54.87 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pet is at ~ 0.14 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.68 % of the time Pet wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.30 %. ~ 58.32 % of the time Pet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Action is at ~ 0.14 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.50 % of the time Action wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.31 %. ~ 58.50 % of the time Action loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Symbol is at ~ 1.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.05 % of the time Symbol wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.49 %. ~ 38.95 % of the time Symbol loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.31 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 2.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.71 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.53 %. ~ 34.29 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Billowy is at ~ 0.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.39 % of the time Billowy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.87 %. ~ 52.61 % of the time Billowy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hitmaN is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.85 % of the time hitmaN wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 74.15 % of the time hitmaN loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Leenock is at ~ 2.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.90 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.14 %. ~ 40.10 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.60 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FanTaSy is at ~ 0.37 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.33 % of the time FanTaSy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.68 %. ~ 51.67 % of the time FanTaSy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.17 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.84 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.36 %. ~ 57.16 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - eMotion is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.94 % of the time eMotion wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.85 %. ~ 51.06 % of the time eMotion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.08 %.
What do you guys think if I had placeholder tournaments? Like just have a few tournaments with randomized open brackets, just to give WCS Points so that players don't prematurely get 100% or 0% chances, and then fill in the names and specific formats for these tournaments as they get announced. And then it could also show the events for them like "If Elfi wins Placeholder Tournament #3, then his chances go up to 50%" and stuff like that.
Poll: Use placeholder tournaments for currently unannounced tournaments?
use 4-6 placeholders (2)
67%
use 1-3 placeholders (1)
33%
No, this is a bad idea (0)
0%
use 7-10 placeholders (0)
0%
3 total votes
Your vote: Use placeholder tournaments for currently unannounced tournaments?
(Vote): No, this is a bad idea (Vote): use 1-3 placeholders (Vote): use 4-6 placeholders (Vote): use 7-10 placeholders
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Apr 15 6:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Copenhagen Games Spring and 5 placeholder tournaments added, GSL Global Championship groups set! Copenhagen Games Spring 2014 added to the simulation with the round of 32 groups set. 5 placeholder tournaments added to represent currently unannounced tournaments, filled with randomized players, with 750 WCS Points for the champion, 4000 WCS Points total each tournament (same as a Dreamhack or IEM). GSL Global Championship Group Stage 1 set.
#1MC is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 3125 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100.00 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.97 %, Min WCS Points: 2125 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.10 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #5 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 97.21 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #6 Jinair sOs is at ~ 95.61 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 91.36 %, Min WCS Points: 1950 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 89.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1925 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 56.07 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #10 StarTale Life is at ~ 53.69 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #11 Acer MMA is at ~ 53.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #12 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 53.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #13 Liquid HerO is at ~ 43.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 41.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #15 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 40.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 26.07 %, Min WCS Points: 775 #17Bomber is at ~ 24.71 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 24.11 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #19 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 23.10 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #20 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 22.64 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #21 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.32 %, Min WCS Points: 725 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 21.20 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 19.40 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #24 Liquid Snute is at ~ 19.34 %, Min WCS Points: 775 #25 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 16.71 %, Min WCS Points: 450
Snute went up by ~ 5.09 %, going from ~ 14.25 % to ~ 19.34 % PartinG went up by ~ 2.55 %, going from ~ 19.77 % to ~ 22.32 % Dear went up by ~ 2.16 %, going from ~ 9.80 % to ~ 11.95 % Heart went up by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.81 % to ~ 4.82 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.70 %, going from ~ 22.41 % to ~ 24.11 % VortiX went up by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 19.72 % to ~ 21.20 % Maru went up by ~ 1.29 %, going from ~ 9.77 % to ~ 11.06 % Classic went up by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 13.24 % Rain went up by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 40.12 % to ~ 41.23 % Jaedong went up by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 25.18 % to ~ 26.07 % Mvp went up by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 12.88 % to ~ 13.71 % puCK went up by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 4.42 % NaNiwa went up by ~ 0.80 %, going from ~ 11.69 % to ~ 12.48 % Patience went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 1.83 % to ~ 2.62 % Soulkey went up by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 7.25 % to ~ 8.00 % soO went up by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 18.69 % to ~ 19.40 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.70 %, going from ~ 3.62 % to ~ 4.33 % Welmu went up by ~ 0.66 %, going from ~ 11.44 % to ~ 12.10 % Check went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 1.21 % Bbyong went up by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 5.61 % to ~ 6.16 %
Oz went down by ~ 4.90 %, going from ~ 45.21 % to ~ 40.31 % jjakji went down by ~ 2.83 %, going from ~ 91.95 % to ~ 89.12 % Polt went down by ~ 2.52 %, going from ~ 93.88 % to ~ 91.36 % sOs went down by ~ 2.38 %, going from ~ 98.00 % to ~ 95.61 % Sen went down by ~ 2.17 %, going from ~ 10.70 % to ~ 8.53 % herO went down by ~ 1.74 %, going from ~ 98.95 % to ~ 97.21 % Zest went down by ~ 1.38 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 98.10 % Has went down by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 2.04 % TaeJa went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 54.29 % to ~ 53.26 % Revival went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 23.65 % to ~ 22.64 % HerO went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 44.50 % to ~ 43.49 % HuK went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 5.22 % to ~ 4.51 % Solar went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 11.11 % to ~ 10.52 %
Copenhagen Games Spring HyuN has a ~ 22.58 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % Snute has a ~ 16.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.34 % to ~ 24.47 % Bunny has a ~ 9.90 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.33 % to ~ 5.49 % Happy has a ~ 9.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.36 % to ~ 4.21 % elfi has a ~ 9.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.23 % Golden has a ~ 4.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 0.12 % MorroW has a ~ 3.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Serral has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.01 % KrasS has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.01 % StarNaN has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % SpaceMarine has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Jona has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Namshar has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % StrinterN has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Pink has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Utopi has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Lillekanin has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Thorminator has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % PJ has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Storm has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Thias has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Bloop has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Theo has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Munck has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Snovski has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % POX has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Raggy has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % FeMo has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Spazymazy has a ~ 0.00 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 %
Copenhagen Games Spring - PJ is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 33.91 % of the time PJ wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 66.09 % of the time PJ loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 0.07 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 87.28 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 12.72 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StrinterN is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.32 % of the time StrinterN wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 46.68 % of the time StrinterN loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Spazymazy is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.49 % of the time Spazymazy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 74.51 % of the time Spazymazy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Pink is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.18 % of the time Pink wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 57.82 % of the time Pink loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Utopi is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.53 % of the time Utopi wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 58.47 % of the time Utopi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Raggy is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.20 % of the time Raggy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 74.80 % of the time Raggy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 4.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 91.09 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.40 %. ~ 8.91 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.63 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Happy is at ~ 3.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.30 % of the time Happy wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.45 %. ~ 15.70 % of the time Happy loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - KrasS is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.75 % of the time KrasS wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 37.25 % of the time KrasS loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Namshar is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 27.95 % of the time Namshar wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 72.05 % of the time Namshar loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Theo is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.00 % of the time Theo wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 75.00 % of the time Theo loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring HyuN has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - HyuN is at ~ 100.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 93.79 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100.00 %. ~ 6.21 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 100.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Thorminator is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.20 % of the time Thorminator wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 59.80 % of the time Thorminator loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snovski is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.59 % of the time Snovski wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 69.41 % of the time Snovski loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FeMo is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.42 % of the time FeMo wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 64.58 % of the time FeMo loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - MorroW is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.53 % of the time MorroW wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 23.47 % of the time MorroW loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Serral is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.48 % of the time Serral wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 34.52 % of the time Serral loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jona is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.44 % of the time Jona wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 62.56 % of the time Jona loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - POX is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 20.54 % of the time POX wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 79.46 % of the time POX loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Munck is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.32 % of the time Munck wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 71.68 % of the time Munck loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - elfi is at ~ 0.17 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.88 % of the time elfi wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.17 %. ~ 14.12 % of the time elfi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Lillekanin is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.57 % of the time Lillekanin wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 64.43 % of the time Lillekanin loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SpaceMarine is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.24 % of the time SpaceMarine wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 49.76 % of the time SpaceMarine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Snute is at ~ 19.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 95.96 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.49 %. ~ 4.04 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 15.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ZhuGeLiang is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 16.54 % of the time ZhuGeLiang wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 83.46 % of the time ZhuGeLiang loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Storm is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.88 % of the time Storm wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 58.12 % of the time Storm loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bloop is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.61 % of the time Bloop wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 54.39 % of the time Bloop loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
Copenhagen Games Spring - Thias is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.24 % of the time Thias wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 68.76 % of the time Thias loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarNaN is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.81 % of the time StarNaN wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 34.19 % of the time StarNaN loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 2.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 91.77 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.66 %. ~ 8.23 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.10 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PainGamer is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 11.19 % of the time PainGamer wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.00 %. ~ 88.81 % of the time PainGamer loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
GSL Global Championship - DongRaeGu is at ~ 5.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.13 % of the time DongRaeGu wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.03 %. ~ 74.87 % of the time DongRaeGu loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PartinG is at ~ 22.32 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.73 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.50 %. ~ 56.27 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.40 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 6.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 17.70 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.54 %. ~ 82.30 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hack is at ~ 0.10 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 8.12 % of the time Hack wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.12 %. ~ 91.88 % of the time Hack loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.10 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FanTaSy is at ~ 0.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 5.32 % of the time FanTaSy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.34 %. ~ 94.68 % of the time FanTaSy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.30 %.
GSL Global Championship - Maru is at ~ 11.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.38 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.75 %. ~ 59.62 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Flash is at ~ 2.56 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.96 % of the time Flash wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.73 %. ~ 73.04 % of the time Flash loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RorO is at ~ 0.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 17.40 % of the time RorO wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.57 %. ~ 82.60 % of the time RorO loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.52 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Action is at ~ 0.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 5.27 % of the time Action wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.13 %. ~ 94.73 % of the time Action loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Impact is at ~ 0.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 9.99 % of the time Impact wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.14 %. ~ 90.01 % of the time Impact loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.11 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Curious is at ~ 3.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.08 % of the time Curious wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.66 %. ~ 41.92 % of the time Curious loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.70 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RagnaroK is at ~ 1.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.58 % of the time RagnaroK wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.54 %. ~ 42.42 % of the time RagnaroK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.49 % of the time Stats wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.59 %. ~ 68.51 % of the time Stats loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.81 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.85 % of the time Rogue wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.40 %. ~ 47.15 % of the time Rogue loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Flash is at ~ 2.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.56 % of the time Flash wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.07 %. ~ 43.44 % of the time Flash loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hydra is at ~ 1.93 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.15 % of the time Hydra wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.40 %. ~ 48.85 % of the time Hydra loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.39 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.89 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.81 %. ~ 55.11 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Panic is at ~ 0.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.40 % of the time Panic wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.11 %. ~ 52.60 % of the time Panic loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code A - SuperNova is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.58 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.71 %. ~ 39.42 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TY is at ~ 1.07 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.05 % of the time TY wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.86 %. ~ 47.95 % of the time TY loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.20 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Choya is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.58 % of the time Choya wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 61.42 % of the time Choya loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.78 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.35 %. ~ 51.22 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Squirtle is at ~ 6.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.68 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.94 %. ~ 28.32 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.11 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.31 %. ~ 54.89 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pet is at ~ 0.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.74 % of the time Pet wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.27 %. ~ 58.26 % of the time Pet loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Action is at ~ 0.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.47 % of the time Action wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.26 %. ~ 58.53 % of the time Action loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Symbol is at ~ 1.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.81 % of the time Symbol wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.32 %. ~ 39.19 % of the time Symbol loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 2.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.19 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.35 %. ~ 34.81 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Billowy is at ~ 0.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.81 % of the time Billowy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.77 %. ~ 52.19 % of the time Billowy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hitmaN is at ~ 0.00 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.19 % of the time hitmaN wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.81 % of the time hitmaN loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.00 %.
GSL S2 Code A - Leenock is at ~ 2.70 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.04 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.12 %. ~ 39.96 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FanTaSy is at ~ 0.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.89 % of the time FanTaSy wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.58 %. ~ 52.11 % of the time FanTaSy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.16 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.01 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.32 %. ~ 56.99 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - eMotion is at ~ 0.40 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.06 % of the time eMotion wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.75 %. ~ 50.94 % of the time eMotion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.06 %.
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Apr 30 6:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Dreamhack Bucharest Preview and GSL Global Championship Semifinals set! GSL Global Championship Semifinals preview. Starts in + Show Spoiler [soO, Zest in GSL Global Championship] +
GSL Global Championship - soO is at ~ 20.69 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.37 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 22.85 %. ~ 60.63 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.63 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.53 %. ~ 39.37 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 98.5 %.
GSL Global Championship - PartinG is at ~ 22.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.09 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.98 %. ~ 50.91 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 21.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.91 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 49.09 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %.
GSL Global Championship Zest has a ~ 32.85 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.12 % to ~ 99.8 % San has a ~ 29.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 99.99 % PartinG has a ~ 25.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.74 % to ~ 25.21 % soO has a ~ 11.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.69 % to ~ 26.19 %
Here are the winning chances for Dreamhack Bucharest. I don't yet have the groups set though, this is with the previously announced player list. + Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +
DreamHack Bucharest jjakji has a ~ 7.97 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.00 % to ~ 100.00 % MC has a ~ 7.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % StarDust has a ~ 6.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 61.14 % to ~ 94.61 % INnoVation has a ~ 6.70 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.81 % to ~ 31.58 % Patience has a ~ 6.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.76 % to ~ 39.39 % HyuN has a ~ 5.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100.00 % to ~ 100.00 % Life has a ~ 5.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 60.05 % to ~ 97.66 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.63 % to ~ 48.65 % HerO has a ~ 4.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 39.66 % to ~ 79.43 % First has a ~ 3.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.36 % to ~ 9.26 % Snute has a ~ 3.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.79 % to ~ 47.55 % Welmu has a ~ 3.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.73 % to ~ 38.58 % Leenock has a ~ 2.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.03 % to ~ 10.38 % RorO has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.42 % to ~ 1.69 % TY has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 0.59 % MaNa has a ~ 1.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.86 % to ~ 5.33 % Harstem has a ~ 1.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 3.99 % Bunny has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.77 % to ~ 13.34 % YoDa has a ~ 1.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.08 % to ~ 3.20 % Golden has a ~ 1.60 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.69 % to ~ 4.87 % HuK has a ~ 1.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.97 % to ~ 11.26 % Impact has a ~ 1.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.28 % Ryung has a ~ 1.10 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.18 % TLO has a ~ 1.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 20.44 % Verdi has a ~ 0.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.40 % to ~ 1.57 % ToD has a ~ 0.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.40 % to ~ 1.39 % uThermal has a ~ 0.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 1.31 % Kas has a ~ 0.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 1.38 % TargA has a ~ 0.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 1.54 % Lilbow has a ~ 0.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.22 % Zanster has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.05 % Socke has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % Serral has a ~ 0.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.11 % MorroW has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.78 % NightEnD has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.10 % to ~ 0.47 % Ret has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.00 % roof has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.00 % to ~ 0.02 %
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 2825 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.12 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #5 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 96.2 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #6 Jinair sOs is at ~ 95.16 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 92 %, Min WCS Points: 1925 #8 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 89.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1950 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 61.14 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #10 StarTale Life is at ~ 60.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #11 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 49.7 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #12 Acer MMA is at ~ 45.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 41.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #14 Liquid HerO is at ~ 39.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #15 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 31.29 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 23.63 %, Min WCS Points: 775 #17 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.74 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #18 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 21.35 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #19 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 20.69 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #20 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 20.3 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #21Bomber is at ~ 19.67 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #22 Ai Patience is at ~ 18.76 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 mouz VortiX is at ~ 18.69 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #24 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 16.81 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #25 Liquid Snute is at ~ 16.79 %, Min WCS Points: 850
TL won't let me post this whole thing lol, so either read it in the OP or check the website!
--------UPDATE Sunday, Apr 27 11:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Dreamhack Bucharest Completed! Previews for ALL WCS REGIONS! First let's look at the biggest changes since 4 days ago. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Life went up by ~ 38.12 %, going from ~ 59.51 % to ~ 97.63 % Jaedong went up by ~ 15.47 %, going from ~ 23.3 % to ~ 38.77 % Snute went up by ~ 5.27 %, going from ~ 16.6 % to ~ 21.88 % StarDust went up by ~ 4.95 %, going from ~ 60.81 % to ~ 65.76 % ForGG went up by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 20.69 % to ~ 24.37 % INnoVation went up by ~ 3.23 %, going from ~ 16.8 % to ~ 20.04 % Arthur went up by ~ 1.83 %, going from ~ 9.77 % to ~ 11.59 % Zest went up by ~ 1.68 %, going from ~ 97.94 % to ~ 99.62 % Bunny went up by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 3.66 % to ~ 4.89 % Has went up by ~ 1.06 %, going from ~ 2.19 % to ~ 3.25 % Tefel went up by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.95 % Happy went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 2.87 % to ~ 3.66 % soO went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 17.56 % to ~ 18.35 % Harstem went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.81 % Sen went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 5.93 % to ~ 6.72 % Leenock went up by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 4.6 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 4.19 % to ~ 4.77 %
HerO went down by ~ 10.75 %, going from ~ 39.36 % to ~ 28.61 % Oz went down by ~ 9.71 %, going from ~ 36.71 % to ~ 27.01 % NaNiwa went down by ~ 8.74 %, going from ~ 8.93 % to ~ 0.19 % MMA went down by ~ 5.25 %, going from ~ 49.34 % to ~ 44.09 % Revival went down by ~ 5.11 %, going from ~ 24.17 % to ~ 19.06 % Patience went down by ~ 4.01 %, going from ~ 18.5 % to ~ 14.49 % Maru went down by ~ 3.41 %, going from ~ 12.52 % to ~ 9.11 % TaeJa went down by ~ 2.37 %, going from ~ 48.98 % to ~ 46.6 % Polt went down by ~ 1.83 %, going from ~ 89.09 % to ~ 87.25 % Check went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 9.79 % to ~ 8.03 % Dear went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 9.97 % to ~ 8.22 % First went down by ~ 1.69 %, going from ~ 4.29 % to ~ 2.6 % Welmu went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 12.62 % to ~ 11.3 % Bomber went down by ~ 1.31 %, going from ~ 19.34 % to ~ 18.03 % Classic went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 13.38 % to ~ 12.08 % sOs went down by ~ 1.27 %, going from ~ 94.88 % to ~ 93.61 % herO went down by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 95.97 % to ~ 94.71 % Alicia went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 15.99 % to ~ 14.8 % VortiX went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 19.14 % to ~ 17.95 % MajOr went down by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 2.92 % to ~ 1.76 % KingKong went down by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 10.12 % to ~ 9.06 % Solar went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 9.66 % to ~ 8.62 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 1.82 % to ~ 0.95 % TLO went down by ~ 0.84 %, going from ~ 3.74 % to ~ 2.9 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 91.67 % to ~ 90.84 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 3.74 % to ~ 2.94 % Rain went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 41.29 % to ~ 40.52 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 4.89 % Top went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 1.99 %
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.62 %, Min WCS Points: 2450 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 97.63 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #6 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 94.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #7 Jinair sOs is at ~ 93.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 90.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #9 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 87.26 %, Min WCS Points: 1950 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 65.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 46.56 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #12 Acer MMA is at ~ 44.13 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.51 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #14 EG Jaedong is at ~ 38.76 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #15 Liquid HerO is at ~ 28.62 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #16 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 27.01 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 24.35 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #18 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.42 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #19 Liquid Snute is at ~ 21.9 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #20 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 20.01 %, Min WCS Points: 825 #21 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 19.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #22 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 18.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #23Bomber is at ~ 18.02 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #24 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.93 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 14.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1025
Previews for Code S Round of 32. Note that Life now takes the #2 headband into the GSL, so sOs might finally be challenged for his #1 headband! + Show Spoiler [Code S Previews] +
GSL S2 Code S - Dark is at ~ 1.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.47 % of the time Dark wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.22 %. ~ 54.53 % of the time Dark loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.56 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TAiLS is at ~ 0.3 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.73 % of the time TAiLS wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.81 %. ~ 70.27 % of the time TAiLS loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 6.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.34 % of the time Bbyong wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.4 %. ~ 44.66 % of the time Bbyong loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.46 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.91 %. ~ 30.54 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 98.96 %.
GSL S2 Code S - RagnaroK is at ~ 3.58 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.15 % of the time RagnaroK wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.74 %. ~ 44.85 % of the time RagnaroK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 18.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.77 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.27 %. ~ 49.23 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 4.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.31 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.06 %. ~ 37.69 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.78 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.85 %. ~ 68.22 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.11 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Rain is at ~ 40.51 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.83 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 48.97 %. ~ 28.17 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 18.95 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Symbol is at ~ 2.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.44 % of the time Symbol wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.82 %. ~ 43.56 % of the time Symbol loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.61 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.3 %. ~ 60.39 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ruin is at ~ 0.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.12 % of the time Ruin wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.39 %. ~ 67.88 % of the time Ruin loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.04 %.
GSL S2 Code S Life has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Life is at ~ 97.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.36 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.32 %. ~ 32.64 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 94.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 12.1 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.93 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.69 %. ~ 43.07 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hydra is at ~ 3.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.82 % of the time Hydra wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.1 %. ~ 54.18 % of the time Hydra loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.89 % of the time Rogue wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.22 %. ~ 70.11 % of the time Rogue loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.36 %.
GSL S2 Code S - DongRaeGu is at ~ 4.88 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.66 % of the time DongRaeGu wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.06 %. ~ 39.34 % of the time DongRaeGu loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.52 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 9.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.97 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.2 %. ~ 41.03 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 1.12 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.99 % of the time ParalyzE wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.13 %. ~ 57.01 % of the time ParalyzE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.35 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.38 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.17 %. ~ 62.62 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.15 %.
GSL S2 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 22.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.4 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.13 %. ~ 40.6 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SuperNova is at ~ 1.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.52 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.15 %. ~ 61.48 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 3.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.96 % of the time ByuL wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.64 %. ~ 54.04 % of the time ByuL loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.11 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 8.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.12 % of the time Solar wins and their chances go up to ~ 12.84 %. ~ 43.88 % of the time Solar loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.2 %.
GSL S2 Code S sOs has the #1 headband! - YongHwa is at ~ 3.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.32 % of the time YongHwa wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.74 %. ~ 51.68 % of the time YongHwa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 7.29 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.2 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.39 %. ~ 46.8 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 93.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.46 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 97.59 %. ~ 30.54 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.55 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.02 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.19 %. ~ 70.98 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Leenock is at ~ 4.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.71 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.54 %. ~ 59.29 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.88 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 4.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.49 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.64 %. ~ 54.51 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 20.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.7 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.52 %. ~ 46.3 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.97 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 94.71 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.1 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.63 %. ~ 39.9 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 88.81 %.
GSL S2 Code S sOs has a ~ 10.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 93.61 % to ~ 100 % herO has a ~ 9.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 94.71 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 8.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.62 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 8.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 40.51 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 7.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.61 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 7.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.44 % to ~ 99.99 % INnoVation has a ~ 6.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.01 % to ~ 99.99 % Classic has a ~ 4.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.1 % to ~ 99.93 % Solar has a ~ 3.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.61 % to ~ 95.34 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.29 % to ~ 90.42 % Maru has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.13 % to ~ 99.95 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 2.65 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.88 % to ~ 86.67 % RagnaroK has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.58 % to ~ 66.63 % Bbyong has a ~ 2.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.19 % to ~ 99.04 % Trap has a ~ 2.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.24 % to ~ 88.1 % YongHwa has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.92 % to ~ 78.97 % Squirtle has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.95 % to ~ 94.75 % soO has a ~ 1.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.36 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 1.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 94.85 % Hydra has a ~ 1.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.42 % to ~ 83.34 % ByuL has a ~ 1.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.19 % to ~ 83.41 % Symbol has a ~ 1.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 75.01 % Dark has a ~ 1.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.77 % to ~ 80.73 % SuperNova has a ~ 0.9 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.54 % to ~ 75.18 % ParalyzE has a ~ 0.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 78.07 % Stork has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 62.07 % Rogue has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.92 % to ~ 93.7 % MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 68.65 % Shine has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 60.04 % TAiLS has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.3 % to ~ 51.2 % TRUE has a ~ 0.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 74.95 % Ruin has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 61.62 %
WCS EU and AM previews omitted from this post due to TL's max post length. Either read this in the OP or just check the website. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, May 05 5:20am GMT (GMT+00:00) Lone Star Clash 3 and TeSL Season 3 Completed! With this update, here are the biggest winners. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Jaedong went up by ~ 15.81 %, going from ~ 38.58 % to ~ 54.39 % Bomber went up by ~ 12.83 %, going from ~ 17.6 % to ~ 30.44 % Polt went up by ~ 6.99 %, going from ~ 86.73 % to ~ 93.72 % Snute went up by ~ 3.7 %, going from ~ 21.63 % to ~ 25.33 % Stephano went up by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 1.52 % HuK went up by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 4.74 %
Snute went up because his Aligulac rating went up from the ULTRA Invitational, which did not give WCS Points.
Here are the biggest losers, most of these seem to just be because of Aligulac rating increases for WCS AM players like Jaedong, Polt, Bomber, and Violet. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] +
TaeJa went down by ~ 5.95 %, going from ~ 48.02 % to ~ 42.08 % HerO went down by ~ 2.44 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 26.09 % StarDust went down by ~ 2.33 %, going from ~ 62.87 % to ~ 60.54 % Patience went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 18.54 % to ~ 16.28 % MMA went down by ~ 1.83 %, going from ~ 44.06 % to ~ 42.23 % Oz went down by ~ 1.79 %, going from ~ 28.29 % to ~ 26.51 % soO went down by ~ 1.66 %, going from ~ 28.97 % to ~ 27.31 % Sen went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 8.58 % to ~ 6.96 % Has went down by ~ 1.37 %, going from ~ 3.05 % to ~ 1.68 % jjakji went down by ~ 1.35 %, going from ~ 90.36 % to ~ 89.01 % sOs went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 93.58 % to ~ 92.39 % herO went down by ~ 1.08 %, going from ~ 94.54 % to ~ 93.46 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 27.4 % to ~ 26.37 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 18.25 % to ~ 17.32 % Life went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 97.43 % to ~ 96.52 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 5.62 % to ~ 4.74 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 21.51 % to ~ 20.68 % Rain went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 39.88 % to ~ 39.1 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 14.89 % to ~ 14.11 % Dear went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 7.95 % to ~ 7.26 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 9.97 % Check went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 12.99 % to ~ 12.41 % Mvp went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 12.88 % to ~ 12.37 %
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2575 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 96.52 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 93.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 93.46 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #8 Jinair sOs is at ~ 92.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 89.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 60.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 EG Jaedong is at ~ 54.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #12 Acer MMA is at ~ 42.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 42.08 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 39.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1275 #15Bomber is at ~ 30.44 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #16 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 27.31 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #17 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 26.51 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 26.37 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #19 Liquid HerO is at ~ 26.09 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #20 Liquid Snute is at ~ 25.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #21 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.78 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #22 CM Storm Revival is at ~ 20.72 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #23 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 20.68 %, Min WCS Points: 825 #24 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.32 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #25 Ai Patience is at ~ 16.28 %, Min WCS Points: 750
Also, Protoss is still below 50%! -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, May 13 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EM and AM Premier Previews! Here is the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25] +
#1MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 KT Zest is at ~ 99.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 99.83 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 98.91 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 95.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 93.77 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #8 Jinair sOs is at ~ 92.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 90.69 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 62.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 EG Jaedong is at ~ 57.21 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #12 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 48.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #13 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 41.95 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14 Acer MMA is at ~ 38.08 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #15Bomber is at ~ 31.67 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #16 Liquid Snute is at ~ 27.9 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #17 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 27.24 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 26.53 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #19 Liquid HerO is at ~ 23.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #20 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 22.23 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #21 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 20.04 %, Min WCS Points: 825 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.86 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 Ai Patience is at ~ 17.35 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #24 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 15.69 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 14.23 %, Min WCS Points: 375
San moved down below Zest due to him forfeiting his spot in TeSL 4.
WCS EU S2 Premier - Stephano is at ~ 1.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.64 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.91 %. ~ 54.36 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Nerchio is at ~ 5.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.36 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.28 %. ~ 37.64 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.11 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.93 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.29 %. ~ 68.07 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 9.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.08 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.82 %. ~ 39.92 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.23 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MaNa is at ~ 1.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.02 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.38 %. ~ 53.98 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 27.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 77.54 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 32.99 %. ~ 22.46 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 1.6 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.47 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.95 %. ~ 55.53 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Krr is at ~ 0.25 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.97 % of the time Krr wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.63 %. ~ 68.03 % of the time Krr loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.07 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - jjakji is at ~ 90.69 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 73.8 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 96.18 %. ~ 26.2 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 75.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 1.29 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.21 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.32 %. ~ 51.79 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.34 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 1.09 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.28 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.59 %. ~ 67.72 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 4.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.71 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.21 %. ~ 54.29 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.81 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - Mvp is at ~ 12.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.93 % of the time Mvp wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.72 %. ~ 38.07 % of the time Mvp loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.16 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 30.84 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 1.25 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.84 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.67 %. ~ 64.16 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.46 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 33.07 % of the time uThermal wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.58 %. ~ 66.93 % of the time uThermal loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.22 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - First is at ~ 5.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.42 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.38 %. ~ 34.58 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BabyKnight is at ~ 0.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.91 % of the time BabyKnight wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.13 %. ~ 64.09 % of the time BabyKnight loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.36 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 62.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 74.23 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.66 %. ~ 25.77 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 36.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 24.45 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 75.55 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MC is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.01 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 29.99 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 1.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.94 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.47 %. ~ 60.06 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Happy is at ~ 5.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.2 % of the time Happy wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.93 %. ~ 52.8 % of the time Happy loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 2.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.86 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.86 %. ~ 57.14 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.93 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MMA is at ~ 38.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.57 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 46.06 %. ~ 27.43 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.94 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ForGG is at ~ 26.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 75.62 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.64 %. ~ 24.38 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 24.69 % of the time LiveZerg wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.3 %. ~ 75.31 % of the time LiveZerg loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 0.89 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 27.13 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.26 %. ~ 72.87 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.38 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - VortiX is at ~ 17.86 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.87 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.59 %. ~ 35.13 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 0.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.92 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.26 %. ~ 67.08 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Tefel is at ~ 0.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.65 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.64 %. ~ 62.35 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 17.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.56 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 23.11 %. ~ 35.44 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.86 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 10.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.83 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 9.84 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 90.69 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 9.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 26.53 % to ~ 99.96 % MMA has a ~ 8.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 38.08 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 7.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 62.54 % to ~ 100 % MC has a ~ 6.93 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % VortiX has a ~ 6.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.86 % to ~ 99.71 % Snute has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 27.9 % to ~ 99.99 % Patience has a ~ 5.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.35 % to ~ 99.93 % Mvp has a ~ 5.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.2 % to ~ 95.76 % First has a ~ 3.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.28 % to ~ 65.82 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.66 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.92 % to ~ 94.11 % Welmu has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.59 % to ~ 99.99 % Happy has a ~ 2.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.35 % to ~ 96.4 % Bunny has a ~ 1.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.74 % to ~ 99.73 % MaNa has a ~ 1.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.87 % to ~ 73.13 % YoDa has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.29 % to ~ 56.49 % Golden has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.74 % to ~ 71.21 % Stephano has a ~ 1.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.59 % to ~ 70.44 % BlinG has a ~ 0.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.6 % to ~ 81.24 % TLO has a ~ 0.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.61 % to ~ 99.81 % Harstem has a ~ 0.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.09 % to ~ 61.99 % ToD has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.25 % to ~ 78.91 % Tefel has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.76 % to ~ 60.56 % uThermal has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.67 % to ~ 58.88 % BabyKnight has a ~ 0.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 91.13 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.89 % to ~ 91.8 % Grubby has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 78.45 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 65.87 % Krr has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.25 % to ~ 45.25 % DeMusliM has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 42.02 % FireCake has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 38.59 %
WCS AM S2 Premier - HerO is at ~ 23.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.03 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.26 %. ~ 44.97 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 9.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.79 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.47 %. ~ 47.21 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 4.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.24 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.43 %. ~ 53.76 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 1.7 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time Pigbaby wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.19 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time Pigbaby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.43 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 31.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.75 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 38.8 %. ~ 27.25 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 0.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.15 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.93 %. ~ 64.85 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - CranK is at ~ 3.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.27 % of the time CranK wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.44 %. ~ 52.73 % of the time CranK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaSa is at ~ 1.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.83 % of the time MaSa wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.03 %. ~ 55.17 % of the time MaSa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 6.7 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.73 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.07 %. ~ 43.27 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 14.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.79 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.39 %. ~ 39.21 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - qxc is at ~ 0.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.9 % of the time qxc wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.16 %. ~ 67.1 % of the time qxc loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 3.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.59 % of the time puCK wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.84 %. ~ 50.41 % of the time puCK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.23 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 41.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.21 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 53.5 %. ~ 34.79 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Top is at ~ 4.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.27 % of the time Top wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.32 %. ~ 47.73 % of the time Top loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 14.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.41 % of the time Check wins and their chances go up to ~ 21.79 %. ~ 46.59 % of the time Check loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.1 % of the time neeb wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.96 %. ~ 70.9 % of the time neeb loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.58 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 37.42 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 3.43 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.92 % of the time Heart wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.74 %. ~ 62.08 % of the time Heart loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 57.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.71 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.59 %. ~ 39.29 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 35.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 3.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.79 % of the time Jim wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.35 %. ~ 61.21 % of the time Jim loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Alicia is at ~ 14.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.95 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.01 %. ~ 39.05 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 1.73 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.66 % of the time TooDming wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.11 %. ~ 54.34 % of the time TooDming loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.69 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.58 %. ~ 56.31 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.25 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 1.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.71 % of the time hendralisk wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.49 %. ~ 50.29 % of the time hendralisk loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.34 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Polt is at ~ 95.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 78.29 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.34 %. ~ 21.71 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 1.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.15 % of the time MacSed wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.33 %. ~ 53.85 % of the time MacSed loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 4.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.25 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.01 %. ~ 43.75 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Courage is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.3 % of the time Courage wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 80.7 % of the time Courage loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Sen is at ~ 13.91 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.54 % of the time Sen wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.88 %. ~ 44.46 % of the time Sen loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.2 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Suppy is at ~ 0.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.89 % of the time Suppy wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.65 %. ~ 60.11 % of the time Suppy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.42 % of the time XiGua wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.24 %. ~ 59.58 % of the time XiGua loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 8.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.15 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.79 %. ~ 35.85 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.92 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 12.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 95.24 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 11.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 9.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 57.21 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 31.67 % to ~ 99.99 % TaeJa has a ~ 8.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.95 % to ~ 100 % HerO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.2 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 3.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.7 % to ~ 86.64 % Alicia has a ~ 3.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.03 % to ~ 100 % Arthur has a ~ 3.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.61 % to ~ 99.45 % Check has a ~ 3.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.23 % to ~ 99.5 % Top has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.44 % to ~ 74.61 % Revival has a ~ 2.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.83 % to ~ 99.99 % Oz has a ~ 2.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.21 % to ~ 100 % Sen has a ~ 2.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.91 % to ~ 99.96 % MajOr has a ~ 2.08 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 97.6 % Jim has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.08 % to ~ 67.48 % HuK has a ~ 2.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.31 % to ~ 93.18 % CranK has a ~ 1.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 92.8 % Heart has a ~ 1.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.43 % to ~ 93.38 % puCK has a ~ 1.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.52 % to ~ 98.1 % Pigbaby has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.7 % to ~ 56.1 % hendralisk has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.41 % to ~ 54.28 % MaSa has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.62 % to ~ 68.46 % MacSed has a ~ 1.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 81.36 % TooDming has a ~ 0.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.73 % to ~ 91.41 % Suppy has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.79 % to ~ 57.24 % XiGua has a ~ 0.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 80.34 % Illusion has a ~ 0.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 71.58 % NesTea has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 72.35 % qxc has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.49 % to ~ 75.07 % neeb has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 89.87 % Courage has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 28.14 %
GSL S2 Code S - DongRaeGu is at ~ 3.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.25 % of the time DongRaeGu wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.68 %. ~ 39.75 % of the time DongRaeGu loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 7.69 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.74 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.05 %. ~ 41.26 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 0.96 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.07 % of the time ParalyzE wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.82 %. ~ 56.93 % of the time ParalyzE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.94 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.99 %. ~ 62.06 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %.
GSL S2 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 22.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.21 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.76 %. ~ 40.79 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SuperNova is at ~ 1.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.01 % of the time SuperNova wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.41 %. ~ 63.99 % of the time SuperNova loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.44 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 2.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.2 % of the time ByuL wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.24 %. ~ 54.8 % of the time ByuL loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 11.17 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.58 % of the time Solar wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.79 %. ~ 40.42 % of the time Solar loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.36 %.
GSL S2 Code S sOs has the #1 headband! - YongHwa is at ~ 3.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.8 % of the time YongHwa wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.54 %. ~ 52.2 % of the time YongHwa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 6.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.61 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.14 %. ~ 46.39 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 92.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.55 % of the time sOs wins and their chances go up to ~ 96.99 %. ~ 29.45 % of the time sOs loses and their chances go down to ~ 82.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 28.04 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.84 %. ~ 71.96 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.11 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Leenock is at ~ 3.17 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.1 % of the time Leenock wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.99 %. ~ 60.9 % of the time Leenock loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.36 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Squirtle is at ~ 4.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.43 % of the time Squirtle wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.36 %. ~ 54.57 % of the time Squirtle loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 20.04 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.87 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.85 %. ~ 45.13 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 93.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.6 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.19 %. ~ 39.4 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 86.96 %.
GSL S2 Code S Zest has a ~ 11.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.84 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 10.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 48.74 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 10.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.76 % to ~ 100 % herO has a ~ 9.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 93.77 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 9.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 98.91 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 6.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.23 % to ~ 99.99 % Classic has a ~ 6.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.69 % to ~ 99.78 % INnoVation has a ~ 6.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.04 % to ~ 99.99 % Solar has a ~ 4.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.17 % to ~ 94.15 % soO has a ~ 3.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 27.24 % to ~ 100 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.55 % to ~ 87.46 % Dark has a ~ 2.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.55 % to ~ 78.31 % Maru has a ~ 2.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.69 % to ~ 99.88 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 2.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.92 % to ~ 83.02 % Squirtle has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.23 % to ~ 92.07 % YongHwa has a ~ 1.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 74.73 % Stork has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.94 % to ~ 61.29 % ByuL has a ~ 1.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.95 % to ~ 79.92 % Leenock has a ~ 1.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.17 % to ~ 92.15 % TRUE has a ~ 0.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.79 % to ~ 70.79 % SuperNova has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.15 % to ~ 70.82 % ParalyzE has a ~ 0.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 73.8 % MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.46 % to ~ 63.7 % Shine has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 55.8 %
And I fixed a slight inconsistency in the rounding functions where the javascript was rounding up to 100% when the backend would never round up to 100% if it wasn't exactly 100% (out of the samples in the simulation). Remember, you can mouse over the %s on the website to see more accuracy.
Also, Protoss is still below 50%! -----------------------
WCS AM S2 Premier - HerO is at ~ 23.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.03 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.26 %. ~ 44.97 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 9.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.79 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.47 %. ~ 47.21 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 4.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.24 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.43 %. ~ 53.76 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 1.7 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time Pigbaby wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.19 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time Pigbaby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.43 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 31.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.75 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 38.8 %. ~ 27.25 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 0.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.15 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.93 %. ~ 64.85 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - CranK is at ~ 3.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.27 % of the time CranK wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.44 %. ~ 52.73 % of the time CranK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaSa is at ~ 1.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.83 % of the time MaSa wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.03 %. ~ 55.17 % of the time MaSa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 6.7 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.73 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.07 %. ~ 43.27 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 14.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.79 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.39 %. ~ 39.21 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - qxc is at ~ 0.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.9 % of the time qxc wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.16 %. ~ 67.1 % of the time qxc loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 3.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.59 % of the time puCK wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.84 %. ~ 50.41 % of the time puCK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.23 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 41.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.21 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 53.5 %. ~ 34.79 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Top is at ~ 4.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.27 % of the time Top wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.32 %. ~ 47.73 % of the time Top loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 14.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.41 % of the time Check wins and their chances go up to ~ 21.79 %. ~ 46.59 % of the time Check loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.1 % of the time neeb wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.96 %. ~ 70.9 % of the time neeb loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.58 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 37.42 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 3.43 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.92 % of the time Heart wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.74 %. ~ 62.08 % of the time Heart loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 57.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.71 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.59 %. ~ 39.29 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 35.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 3.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.79 % of the time Jim wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.35 %. ~ 61.21 % of the time Jim loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Alicia is at ~ 14.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.95 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.01 %. ~ 39.05 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 1.73 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.66 % of the time TooDming wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.11 %. ~ 54.34 % of the time TooDming loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.69 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.58 %. ~ 56.31 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.25 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 1.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.71 % of the time hendralisk wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.49 %. ~ 50.29 % of the time hendralisk loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.34 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Polt is at ~ 95.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 78.29 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.34 %. ~ 21.71 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 1.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.15 % of the time MacSed wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.33 %. ~ 53.85 % of the time MacSed loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 4.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.25 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.01 %. ~ 43.75 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Courage is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.3 % of the time Courage wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 80.7 % of the time Courage loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Sen is at ~ 13.91 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.54 % of the time Sen wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.88 %. ~ 44.46 % of the time Sen loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.2 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Suppy is at ~ 0.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.89 % of the time Suppy wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.65 %. ~ 60.11 % of the time Suppy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.42 % of the time XiGua wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.24 %. ~ 59.58 % of the time XiGua loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 8.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.15 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.79 %. ~ 35.85 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.92 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 12.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 95.24 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 11.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 9.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 57.21 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 31.67 % to ~ 99.99 % TaeJa has a ~ 8.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.95 % to ~ 100 % HerO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.2 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 3.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.7 % to ~ 86.64 % Alicia has a ~ 3.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.03 % to ~ 100 % Arthur has a ~ 3.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.61 % to ~ 99.45 % Check has a ~ 3.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.23 % to ~ 99.5 % Top has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.44 % to ~ 74.61 % Revival has a ~ 2.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.83 % to ~ 99.99 % Oz has a ~ 2.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.21 % to ~ 100 % Sen has a ~ 2.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.91 % to ~ 99.96 % MajOr has a ~ 2.08 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 97.6 % Jim has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.08 % to ~ 67.48 % HuK has a ~ 2.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.31 % to ~ 93.18 % CranK has a ~ 1.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 92.8 % Heart has a ~ 1.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.43 % to ~ 93.38 % puCK has a ~ 1.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.52 % to ~ 98.1 % Pigbaby has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.7 % to ~ 56.1 % hendralisk has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.41 % to ~ 54.28 % MaSa has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.62 % to ~ 68.46 % MacSed has a ~ 1.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 81.36 % TooDming has a ~ 0.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.73 % to ~ 91.41 % Suppy has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.79 % to ~ 57.24 % XiGua has a ~ 0.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 80.34 % Illusion has a ~ 0.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 71.58 % NesTea has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 72.35 % qxc has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.49 % to ~ 75.07 % neeb has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 89.87 % Courage has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 28.14 %
i have wondered this for a while but how do you read this?
WCS AM S2 Premier - HerO is at ~ 23.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.03 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.26 %. ~ 44.97 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 9.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 9.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.79 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 15.47 %. ~ 47.21 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 4.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.24 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.43 %. ~ 53.76 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 1.7 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time Pigbaby wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.19 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time Pigbaby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.43 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 31.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.75 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 38.8 %. ~ 27.25 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 0.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.15 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.93 %. ~ 64.85 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - CranK is at ~ 3.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.27 % of the time CranK wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.44 %. ~ 52.73 % of the time CranK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaSa is at ~ 1.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.83 % of the time MaSa wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.03 %. ~ 55.17 % of the time MaSa loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 6.7 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.73 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.07 %. ~ 43.27 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 14.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.79 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.39 %. ~ 39.21 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - qxc is at ~ 0.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 32.9 % of the time qxc wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.16 %. ~ 67.1 % of the time qxc loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 3.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.59 % of the time puCK wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.84 %. ~ 50.41 % of the time puCK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.23 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 41.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 65.21 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 53.5 %. ~ 34.79 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Top is at ~ 4.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.27 % of the time Top wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.32 %. ~ 47.73 % of the time Top loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 14.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.41 % of the time Check wins and their chances go up to ~ 21.79 %. ~ 46.59 % of the time Check loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 29.1 % of the time neeb wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.96 %. ~ 70.9 % of the time neeb loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.58 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 37.42 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 3.43 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.92 % of the time Heart wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.74 %. ~ 62.08 % of the time Heart loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 57.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.71 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.59 %. ~ 39.29 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 35.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 3.08 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.79 % of the time Jim wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.35 %. ~ 61.21 % of the time Jim loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Alicia is at ~ 14.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.95 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.01 %. ~ 39.05 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 1.73 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.66 % of the time TooDming wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.11 %. ~ 54.34 % of the time TooDming loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.69 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.58 %. ~ 56.31 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.25 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 1.41 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.71 % of the time hendralisk wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.49 %. ~ 50.29 % of the time hendralisk loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.34 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Polt is at ~ 95.24 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 78.29 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 98.34 %. ~ 21.71 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 84.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 1.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.15 % of the time MacSed wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.33 %. ~ 53.85 % of the time MacSed loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 4.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.25 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.01 %. ~ 43.75 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Courage is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.3 % of the time Courage wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 80.7 % of the time Courage loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Sen is at ~ 13.91 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.54 % of the time Sen wins and their chances go up to ~ 20.88 %. ~ 44.46 % of the time Sen loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.2 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Suppy is at ~ 0.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.89 % of the time Suppy wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.65 %. ~ 60.11 % of the time Suppy loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.13 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.42 % of the time XiGua wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.24 %. ~ 59.58 % of the time XiGua loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 8.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 64.15 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.79 %. ~ 35.85 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.92 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 12.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 95.24 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 11.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 9.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 57.21 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 31.67 % to ~ 99.99 % TaeJa has a ~ 8.39 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.95 % to ~ 100 % HerO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 23.2 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 3.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.7 % to ~ 86.64 % Alicia has a ~ 3.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.03 % to ~ 100 % Arthur has a ~ 3.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.61 % to ~ 99.45 % Check has a ~ 3.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.23 % to ~ 99.5 % Top has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.44 % to ~ 74.61 % Revival has a ~ 2.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.83 % to ~ 99.99 % Oz has a ~ 2.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.21 % to ~ 100 % Sen has a ~ 2.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.91 % to ~ 99.96 % MajOr has a ~ 2.08 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 97.6 % Jim has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.08 % to ~ 67.48 % HuK has a ~ 2.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.31 % to ~ 93.18 % CranK has a ~ 1.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 92.8 % Heart has a ~ 1.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.43 % to ~ 93.38 % puCK has a ~ 1.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.52 % to ~ 98.1 % Pigbaby has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.7 % to ~ 56.1 % hendralisk has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.41 % to ~ 54.28 % MaSa has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.62 % to ~ 68.46 % MacSed has a ~ 1.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 81.36 % TooDming has a ~ 0.89 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.73 % to ~ 91.41 % Suppy has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.79 % to ~ 57.24 % XiGua has a ~ 0.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 80.34 % Illusion has a ~ 0.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 71.58 % NesTea has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 72.35 % qxc has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.49 % to ~ 75.07 % neeb has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 89.87 % Courage has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 28.14 %
i have wondered this for a while but how do you read this?
WCS EU S2 Premier - Stephano is at ~ 1.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 45.64 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.91 %. ~ 54.36 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Nerchio is at ~ 5.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.36 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.28 %. ~ 37.64 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.11 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.93 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.29 %. ~ 68.07 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 9.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.08 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.82 %. ~ 39.92 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.23 %.
It says that Stephano currently has ~ 1.59 % chance to qualify for Blizzcon.
He has ~ 45.64 % chance to advance from this group. If he does advance from the group then his chances to qualify for Blizzcon change to ~ 2.91%.
He has ~ 54.36 % chance to fail to advance from this group. When he does fail to advance from this group, his chances to qualify for Blizzcon change to ~ 0.48 %.
--------UPDATE Saturday, May 24 4:40am GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and GSL Code S Round of 16! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.94 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 97.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 97.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #7 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 92.41 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #8 Jinair sOs is at ~ 77.32 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 64.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 59.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 EG Jaedong is at ~ 51.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #12 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 44.61 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #13 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 41.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14Bomber is at ~ 37.6 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #15 Acer MMA is at ~ 37.59 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #16 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 37.49 %, Min WCS Points: 950 #17 Liquid Snute is at ~ 36.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #18 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 34.87 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.55 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #20 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 22.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #21 Jinair Maru is at ~ 17.9 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.47 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 Ai Patience is at ~ 17.28 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #24 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 16.76 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #25 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 15.76 %, Min WCS Points: 800
First let's look at the biggest winners and losers from adding the KeSPA Cup (after the Code S Ro32 was completed but before the Ro16 groups were set). + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
PartinG went up by ~ 5.9 %, going from ~ 31.93 % to ~ 37.83 % Maru went up by ~ 4.14 %, going from ~ 12.75 % to ~ 16.89 % INnoVation went up by ~ 3.92 %, going from ~ 29.47 % to ~ 33.39 % Soulkey went up by ~ 3.53 %, going from ~ 11.78 % to ~ 15.3 % Solar went up by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 13.7 % to ~ 15.51 % First went up by ~ 1.64 %, going from ~ 6.6 % to ~ 8.24 % Classic went up by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 15.92 % to ~ 17.46 % YoDa went up by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 5.01 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 24.28 % to ~ 25.5 % VortiX went up by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 16.24 % to ~ 17.43 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 3.63 % to ~ 4.79 % Patience went up by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 16.13 % to ~ 17.21 % Snute went up by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 35.85 % to ~ 36.89 % Nerchio went up by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 6.3 % to ~ 7.23 % Stork went up by ~ 0.9 %, going from ~ 3.02 % to ~ 3.91 % Dark went up by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 4.62 % Harstem went up by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 4.24 % Bbyong went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 2.65 % ToD went up by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 3.53 % to ~ 4.3 % Arthur went up by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 8.48 % to ~ 9.21 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 3.1 % to ~ 3.82 % NesTea went up by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 3.63 % Revival went up by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 14.42 % to ~ 15.1 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 6.43 % to ~ 7.1 % Top went up by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 4.39 % to ~ 4.98 %
sOs went down by ~ 7.91 %, going from ~ 84.96 % to ~ 77.05 % jjakji went down by ~ 6.89 %, going from ~ 71.27 % to ~ 64.39 % StarDust went down by ~ 4.54 %, going from ~ 63.58 % to ~ 59.04 % Jaedong went down by ~ 3.88 %, going from ~ 55.7 % to ~ 51.82 % Polt went down by ~ 3.13 %, going from ~ 95.46 % to ~ 92.33 % Bomber went down by ~ 2.88 %, going from ~ 40.39 % to ~ 37.51 % soO went down by ~ 1.99 %, going from ~ 27.71 % to ~ 25.72 % Rain went down by ~ 1.9 %, going from ~ 48.12 % to ~ 46.22 % Life went down by ~ 1.63 %, going from ~ 99.17 % to ~ 97.54 % herO went down by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 98.4 % to ~ 97.17 % HerO went down by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.04 % TaeJa went down by ~ 0.86 %, going from ~ 42.08 % to ~ 41.22 % MMA went down by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 38.38 % to ~ 37.53 % Sen went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 12.5 % Dear went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 6.65 % to ~ 5.93 % Happy went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 6.16 % to ~ 5.44 % Squirtle went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 1.6 % to ~ 0.96 %
As is normal when adding a new big tournament, the players who have high Aligulac ratings relative to their chances get big boosts to their chances, while players with low Aligulac ratings relative to their chances take some losses.
For the KeSPA Cup's seeds for top 2 in Proleague, I just have it pick 2 from the current top 10 at random, and it does a random selection for the open qualifiers.
KeSPA Cup herO has a ~ 7.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.17 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 6.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.83 % to ~ 98.8 % San has a ~ 5.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.94 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 5.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.59 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 4.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 3.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.39 % to ~ 99.53 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.3 % to ~ 77.38 % Rain has a ~ 3.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 46.22 % to ~ 99.99 % Maru has a ~ 2.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.89 % to ~ 93.52 % Polt has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.33 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.53 % to ~ 99.96 % Life has a ~ 2.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.54 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 2.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.5 % to ~ 98.29 % Snute has a ~ 2.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 36.89 % to ~ 99.99 % Bomber has a ~ 2.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.51 % to ~ 99.97 % StarDust has a ~ 2.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 59.04 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 1.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 51.82 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.51 % to ~ 93.75 % TaeJa has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.22 % to ~ 99.99 % MC has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.46 % to ~ 97.51 % VortiX has a ~ 1.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 95.02 % Bbyong has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.65 % to ~ 47.27 % Flash has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 9.68 % ByuL has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 21.33 % Patience has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.21 % to ~ 96.61 % RorO has a ~ 1.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 15.06 % TY has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 7.48 % First has a ~ 0.97 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 82.31 % sOs has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 77.05 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.72 % to ~ 99.99 % jjakji has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 64.39 % to ~ 100 % Welmu has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.15 % to ~ 99.49 % Nerchio has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.23 % to ~ 90.97 % Dark has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 81.33 % Revival has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.1 % to ~ 99.65 % viOLet has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.1 % to ~ 83.18 % YoDa has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.01 % to ~ 81.6 % Stork has a ~ 0.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.91 % to ~ 77.84 % KingKong has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 12.45 % Arthur has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.21 % to ~ 92.72 % Alicia has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.07 % to ~ 99.28 % Happy has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.44 % to ~ 79.85 % Check has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.96 % to ~ 97.19 % NaNiwa has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 8.68 % Dear has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.93 % to ~ 99.91 % Jim has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.1 % to ~ 70.34 % Mvp has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 42.41 % Top has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 77.07 % Sage has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 8.68 % Harstem has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.24 % to ~ 81.23 %
INnoVation went up by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 33.39 % to ~ 34.87 % Soulkey went up by ~ 1.46 %, going from ~ 15.3 % to ~ 16.76 % Maru went up by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 16.89 % to ~ 17.9 % Stork went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 3.91 % to ~ 4.72 % Dark went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 5.34 %
soO went down by ~ 3.5 %, going from ~ 25.72 % to ~ 22.22 % Classic went down by ~ 1.7 %, going from ~ 17.46 % to ~ 15.76 % Rain went down by ~ 1.61 %, going from ~ 46.22 % to ~ 44.61 % Solar went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 15.51 % to ~ 14.97 %
GSL S2 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 37.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.45 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 51.52 %. ~ 40.55 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 22.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.33 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.48 %. ~ 64.67 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 15.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.04 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.66 %. ~ 56.96 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 97.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.17 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.9 %. ~ 37.83 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 92.25 %.
GSL S2 Code S Life has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Life is at ~ 97.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.38 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.94 %. ~ 39.62 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 94.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rain is at ~ 44.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.35 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 62.05 %. ~ 43.65 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 22.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 2.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.44 % of the time ParalyzE wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.91 %. ~ 68.56 % of the time ParalyzE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 14.97 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.82 % of the time Solar wins and their chances go up to ~ 24.95 %. ~ 48.18 % of the time Solar loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.22 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Maru is at ~ 17.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.79 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.51 %. ~ 48.21 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dark is at ~ 5.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.24 % of the time Dark wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.21 %. ~ 46.76 % of the time Dark loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 4.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.04 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.63 %. ~ 41.96 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 1.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.93 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.92 %. ~ 63.07 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Soulkey is at ~ 16.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.09 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.83 %. ~ 42.91 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 34.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 63.84 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 47.61 %. ~ 36.16 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.5 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.37 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 51.63 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 1.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.7 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.26 %. ~ 69.3 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.2 %.
GSL S2 Code S herO has a ~ 13.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.01 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 12.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 34.87 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 11.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.49 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 9.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.5 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 9.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 44.61 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 8.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.76 % to ~ 100 % Soulkey has a ~ 7.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.76 % to ~ 98.8 % Solar has a ~ 6.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.97 % to ~ 99.62 % Classic has a ~ 5.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.76 % to ~ 99.99 % Maru has a ~ 4.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.9 % to ~ 99.99 % soO has a ~ 2.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.22 % to ~ 100 % Dark has a ~ 2.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.34 % to ~ 96.78 % Stork has a ~ 2.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.72 % to ~ 92.07 % ParalyzE has a ~ 1.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.15 % to ~ 95.97 % Shine has a ~ 0.97 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.44 % to ~ 88.85 % TRUE has a ~ 0.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 94.6 %
Now let's try to figure out which is the group of death according to the stats!
Group A - Parting has a ~ 11.03 % chance to win Code S Classic has a ~ 5.15 % chance herO has a ~ 13.72 % chance soO has a ~ 2.88 % chance All these chances added up gives a 32.78 Code S Chances Score
Group B - Rain has a ~ 9.32 % chance Solar has a ~ 6.6 % chance Life has a ~ 8.83 % chance ParalyzE has a ~ 1.15 % chance All these chances added up gives a 25.9 Code S Chances Score
Group C - Maru has a ~ 4.71 % chance Dark has a ~ 2.77 % chance TRUE has a ~ 0.7 % chance Stork has a ~ 2.75 % chance All these chances added up gives a 10.93 Code S Chances Score
Group D - Soulkey has a ~ 7.42 % chance Shine has a ~ 0.97 % chance Zest has a ~ 9.32 % chance Innovation has a ~ 12.7 % chance All these chances added up gives a 30.41 Code S Chances Score
Which means the groups go in this order according to the Code S Chances Scores A > D > B > C
Group A - Parting went down by ~ 0.34 %, from ~ 37.83 % down to ~ 37.49 % Classic went down by ~ 1.7 %, from ~ 17.46 % down to ~ 15.76 % herO went down by ~ 0.16 %, from ~ 97.17 % down to ~ 97.01 % soO went down by ~ 3.5 %, from ~ 25.72 % down to ~ 22.22 % All these chances added up gives a 172.48 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 5.7 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group B - Rain went down by ~ 1.61 %, from ~ 46.22 % down to ~ 44.61 % Solar went down by ~ 0.55 %, from ~ 15.51 % down to ~ 14.96 % Life went up by ~ 0.22 %, from ~ 97.54 % down to ~ 97.76 % ParalyzE went down by ~ 0.21 %, from ~ 2.36 % down to ~ 2.15 % All these chances added up gives a 159.48 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 2.15 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group C - Maru went up by ~ 1.01 %, from ~ 16.89 % up to ~ 17.9 % Dark went up by ~ 0.72 %, from ~ 4.62 % up to ~ 5.34 % TRUE went up by ~ 0.12 %, from ~ 1.07 % up to ~ 1.19 % Stork went up by ~ 0.81 %, from ~ 3.91 % up to ~ 4.72 % All these chances added up gives a 29.15 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.66 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group D - Soulkey went up by ~ 1.46 %, from ~ 15.3 % up to ~ 16.76 % Shine stayed about the same at ~ 1.44 % Zest went down by ~ 0.09 %, from ~ 99.59 % down to ~ 99.5 % Innovation went up by ~ 1.48 %, from ~ 33.39 % up to ~ 34.87 % All these chances added up gives a 152.57 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.85 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order A > D > B > C
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order A > B > C > D
So in all 3 of the metrics we have Group A being the group of death! Congrats to Parting, Classic, herO, and soO! 2nd place goes to Group D, 3rd place to Group B, and 4th place goes to Group C.
Wow, Korea's getting fucked pretty hard by the WCS system. ForGG has a higher chance of making the top 16 than Maru at this rate. That's an awful, awful joke.
On May 24 2014 14:08 pure.Wasted wrote: Thanks for putting this together!
Wow, Korea's getting fucked pretty hard by the WCS system. ForGG has a higher chance of making the top 16 than Maru at this rate. That's an awful, awful joke.
Koreans that dont/cant travel to the extra foreign tournaments were hurt the most by the removal of the season finals. We probably won't see those types of players at Blizzcon unless they make a GSL final
then again even that isn't enough if you look at soO
Just put together a little bit of a new feature. Player Sets!
You can now view players and their upcoming matches by race, team, country, or just a list of player IDs. In the future I plan to add more things to these pages like biggest winners and losers, and make similar pages for tournaments.
You can click on a team name, country flag, or race flag to view the matching set of players.
I think it should be noted that there is some kind of discrepancy between the WCS scores on Liquipedia and the ones on the official Blizzard site. This could affect the odds significantly.
On May 25 2014 16:35 Circumstance wrote: I think it should be noted that there is some kind of discrepancy between the WCS scores on Liquipedia and the ones on the official Blizzard site. This could affect the odds significantly.
The Liquipedia scores include points a player is already guaranteed via seeding if they take part in the next season. The official scores do not.
The liquipedia page is more pragmatic, as it shows how many points each player has "earned" so long as they continue in the competition. The official page is more technically correct, as the points aren't really earned until the player shows up for the round they are seeded into, and awarding only half of the points from a particular round in advance unnecessarily biases the rankings towards incumbent players.
Changing the subject, what surprises me most about the stats right now is how much higher a chance the algorithm is giving Innovation than the TL commentariat seems to be rating him.
On May 25 2014 16:35 Circumstance wrote: I think it should be noted that there is some kind of discrepancy between the WCS scores on Liquipedia and the ones on the official Blizzard site. This could affect the odds significantly.
The Liquipedia scores include points a player is already guaranteed via seeding if they take part in the next season. The official scores do not.
I thought that as well, but Jjakji, Stardust, San, and sOs all have the same points on both sites while Polt, Snute, soO, and Taeja don't. It isn't adding up.
On May 25 2014 16:35 Circumstance wrote: I think it should be noted that there is some kind of discrepancy between the WCS scores on Liquipedia and the ones on the official Blizzard site. This could affect the odds significantly.
I'm actually not using the WCS Points listed in Liquipedia. The simulation runs through all the tournaments, using the old results if they've already been played, and simulates unplayed matches millions of times, and assigns WCS Points as the players earn them. If you see a player that seems to have an incorrect Minimum WCS Points then please post in this thread.
On May 25 2014 16:35 Circumstance wrote: I think it should be noted that there is some kind of discrepancy between the WCS scores on Liquipedia and the ones on the official Blizzard site. This could affect the odds significantly.
The Liquipedia scores include points a player is already guaranteed via seeding if they take part in the next season. The official scores do not.
I thought that as well, but Jjakji, Stardust, San, and sOs all have the same points on both sites while Polt, Snute, soO, and Taeja don't. It isn't adding up.
On May 25 2014 16:35 Circumstance wrote: I think it should be noted that there is some kind of discrepancy between the WCS scores on Liquipedia and the ones on the official Blizzard site. This could affect the odds significantly.
The Liquipedia scores include points a player is already guaranteed via seeding if they take part in the next season. The official scores do not.
I thought that as well, but Jjakji, Stardust, San, and sOs all have the same points on both sites while Polt, Snute, soO, and Taeja don't. It isn't adding up.
Ok here's the reason for this. The WCS website breaks down the number of points a player has or will get from each tournament, similar to Liquipedia. The difference is they show points won from Premier league separately from the points won in Challenger league. Which means that they cannot show the points a player will get for season 3 unless it is known whether they will start in Premier or Challenger.
For example, Jjakji and sOs already lost, so it is known that they will start in Challenger next season and they will get at least 50 points from Challenger league. Stardust and San already advanced to the round of 16, so they will start next season in Premier league and will get at least 100 points for that.
Polt, Snute, soO, and Taeja have not gotten far enough to know for sure if they will start in Challenger league or Premier league. So even though we know they will get at least 50 points from WCS Season 3, we don't know if they will be getting points from Challenger league or Premier league, and since the Blizzard WCS website specifies which one, they can't show that yet.
That explains this weirdness lol.
WCS Predictor's Minimum WCS Points seems to be in line with what Liquidpedia has, which are the correct numbers.
--------UPDATE Friday, May 30 10:10pm GMT (GMT+00:00) HomeStory Cup 9 and Dreamhack Summer player lists set! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #2MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3175 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.82 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.62 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 95.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 87.4 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 83.52 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #8 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 80.44 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 70.51 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #10 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 66.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 65.06 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 Liquid Snute is at ~ 51.73 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 47.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.24 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 40.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16Bomber is at ~ 39.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #17 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 36.15 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #18 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 27.63 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 26.31 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #20 Jinair Maru is at ~ 26.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #21 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.16 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #22 Acer MMA is at ~ 18.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #23 Wayi Check is at ~ 17.72 %, Min WCS Points: 525 #24 NrS Welmu is at ~ 17.7 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #25 Ai Patience is at ~ 17.43 %, Min WCS Points: 750
I added the player list for HomeStory Cup 9 yesterday but wasn't able to post about it. Here are the biggest winners and losers from the HomeStory Cup 9 player list. Remember that this is slightly old info and their chances are not the same anymore, so just check out how their chances changed. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
jjakji went up by ~ 12.5 %, going from ~ 63.43 % to ~ 75.93 % Jaedong went up by ~ 8.99 %, going from ~ 28.98 % to ~ 37.97 % Snute went up by ~ 8.99 %, going from ~ 35.05 % to ~ 44.04 % TaeJa went up by ~ 7.98 %, going from ~ 51.95 % to ~ 59.94 % Bomber went up by ~ 6.39 %, going from ~ 35.75 % to ~ 42.13 % ForGG went up by ~ 4.14 %, going from ~ 25.13 % to ~ 29.27 % Patience went up by ~ 3.3 %, going from ~ 15.38 % to ~ 18.68 % Welmu went up by ~ 2.72 %, going from ~ 12.38 % to ~ 15.1 % LiveZerg went up by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 0.42 % to ~ 1.3 % YoDa went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 4.74 % to ~ 5.51 % Stork went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 5.22 % to ~ 5.8 % ToD went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 4.03 % to ~ 4.55 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 1.97 % to ~ 2.48 %
MMA went down by ~ 13.03 %, going from ~ 36.66 % to ~ 23.63 % sOs went down by ~ 5.01 %, going from ~ 75.66 % to ~ 70.65 % herO went down by ~ 3.43 %, going from ~ 87.95 % to ~ 84.52 % soO went down by ~ 3.32 %, going from ~ 46.46 % to ~ 43.14 % StarDust went down by ~ 3.3 %, going from ~ 65.84 % to ~ 62.53 % Rain went down by ~ 2.77 %, going from ~ 45.67 % to ~ 42.9 % Polt went down by ~ 1.91 %, going from ~ 91.7 % to ~ 89.79 % Oz went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 19.2 % to ~ 17.44 % Check went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 21.5 % to ~ 19.74 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.74 %, going from ~ 37.01 % to ~ 35.26 % Classic went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 31.71 % to ~ 30.09 % Alicia went down by ~ 1.45 %, going from ~ 13.36 % to ~ 11.9 % PartinG went down by ~ 1.41 %, going from ~ 16.3 % to ~ 14.89 % Maru went down by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 17.76 % to ~ 16.42 % Sen went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 11.56 % to ~ 10.37 % Revival went down by ~ 1.17 %, going from ~ 14.21 % to ~ 13.04 % Dear went down by ~ 1.12 %, going from ~ 5.69 % to ~ 4.57 % Life went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 97.54 % to ~ 96.55 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 17.05 % to ~ 16.23 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 17.41 % to ~ 16.6 % HerO went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 6.42 % to ~ 5.66 % Solar went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 15.38 % to ~ 14.65 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 10.77 % to ~ 10.19 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 0.91 % to ~ 0.32 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 8.49 % to ~ 7.97 %
Here are the biggest winners and losers with the addition of the Dreamhack Summer player list. These numbers are current. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Jaedong went up by ~ 9.03 %, going from ~ 38.01 % to ~ 47.05 % StarDust went up by ~ 7.99 %, going from ~ 62.52 % to ~ 70.51 % Snute went up by ~ 7.52 %, going from ~ 44.21 % to ~ 51.73 % jjakji went up by ~ 7.49 %, going from ~ 76.03 % to ~ 83.52 % TaeJa went up by ~ 6.31 %, going from ~ 59.86 % to ~ 66.17 % Dear went up by ~ 2.94 %, going from ~ 4.58 % to ~ 7.52 % Oz went up by ~ 2.79 %, going from ~ 17.37 % to ~ 20.16 % Welmu went up by ~ 2.73 %, going from ~ 14.98 % to ~ 17.7 % HerO went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 5.62 % to ~ 7.18 % INnoVation went up by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 34.99 % to ~ 36.15 % TRUE went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 3.41 % to ~ 4.18 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.61 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 3.12 %
sOs went down by ~ 5.71 %, going from ~ 70.77 % to ~ 65.06 % herO went down by ~ 4.21 %, going from ~ 84.65 % to ~ 80.44 % soO went down by ~ 3.72 %, going from ~ 43.9 % to ~ 40.18 % MMA went down by ~ 3.06 %, going from ~ 21.77 % to ~ 18.71 % Rain went down by ~ 2.84 %, going from ~ 43.08 % to ~ 40.24 % Bomber went down by ~ 2.45 %, going from ~ 42.01 % to ~ 39.55 % Polt went down by ~ 2.37 %, going from ~ 89.77 % to ~ 87.4 % Classic went down by ~ 2.04 %, going from ~ 29.67 % to ~ 27.63 % Check went down by ~ 1.96 %, going from ~ 19.68 % to ~ 17.72 % Soulkey went down by ~ 1.44 %, going from ~ 16.49 % to ~ 15.05 % PartinG went down by ~ 1.41 %, going from ~ 14.94 % to ~ 13.53 % Life went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 96.58 % to ~ 95.19 % Patience went down by ~ 1.28 %, going from ~ 18.71 % to ~ 17.43 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 27.54 % to ~ 26.31 % Sen went down by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 10.35 % to ~ 9.19 % Revival went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 12.93 % to ~ 11.89 % Solar went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 14.81 % to ~ 13.82 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 11.82 % to ~ 10.86 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.86 %, going from ~ 16.74 % to ~ 15.88 % First went down by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 11.9 % to ~ 11.08 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 10.07 % to ~ 9.52 % Zest went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.15 % to ~ 98.62 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 6.38 % to ~ 5.87 %
HomeStory Cup 9 jjakji has a ~ 11.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 83.52 % to ~ 99.98 % MMA has a ~ 10.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.71 % to ~ 46.08 % MC has a ~ 9.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 8.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 51.73 % to ~ 85.54 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 47.05 % to ~ 90.29 % TaeJa has a ~ 7.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 66.17 % to ~ 95.41 % Patience has a ~ 6.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 35.7 % Bomber has a ~ 6.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 39.55 % to ~ 73.19 % Scarlett has a ~ 3.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 0.57 % Stork has a ~ 2.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.74 % to ~ 2.49 % Welmu has a ~ 2.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.7 % to ~ 52.82 % Bunny has a ~ 2.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 14.41 % YoDa has a ~ 2.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.1 % to ~ 11.22 % HasuObs has a ~ 2.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.25 % Harstem has a ~ 1.96 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.45 % to ~ 10.34 % Stephano has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.47 % to ~ 1.76 % ToD has a ~ 1.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.26 % to ~ 11.03 % MaNa has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.07 % to ~ 12.07 % TLO has a ~ 1.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 8.96 % Armani has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.23 % BlinG has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 1.38 % TargA has a ~ 1.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.09 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 2.27 % Grubby has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.68 % to ~ 2.45 % Socke has a ~ 0.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % NightEnD has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.04 %
DreamHack Summer HyuN has a ~ 12.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 10.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 83.52 % to ~ 99.94 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 47.05 % to ~ 85.27 % Snute has a ~ 7.59 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 51.73 % to ~ 82.13 % StarDust has a ~ 7.52 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 70.51 % to ~ 98.63 % TaeJa has a ~ 7.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 66.17 % to ~ 93.02 % Dear has a ~ 6.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.52 % to ~ 29.36 % PiG has a ~ 4.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.24 % HerO has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 27.16 % Bunny has a ~ 3.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 12.2 % Welmu has a ~ 3.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.7 % to ~ 47.34 % Oz has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 20.16 % to ~ 58.2 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 2.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.12 % HuK has a ~ 2.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.11 % to ~ 2.73 % MaNa has a ~ 2.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.07 % to ~ 10.56 % TLO has a ~ 2.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 7.15 % Tefel has a ~ 1.93 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.48 % to ~ 3.62 % uThermal has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 0.8 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 1.79 % Serral has a ~ 1.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.04 % ThorZaIN has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Zanster has a ~ 1.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % Socke has a ~ 0.92 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % MorroW has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Balloon has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % SortOf has a ~ 0.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % DeMusliM has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.14 % GoOdy has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % herO has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 80.44 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.71 % to ~ 61.04 % KingKong has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 2.12 % Mvp has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 6.55 % Arthur has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.63 % to ~ 21.65 % YoDa has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.1 % to ~ 11.6 % Heart has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.85 % to ~ 21.86 % Revival has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.89 % to ~ 33.59 % ToD has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.26 % to ~ 9.63 % Sen has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.19 % to ~ 44.26 % Panic has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.98 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.66 % to ~ 7.79 %
Also here's a tip if you want to see what your favorite player needs to do at the next tournament. Just go on their page, go down to the events section, and use the search box to type in the name of the tournament. The events list will instantly be filtered down to just events that have to do with that tournament! Here's an example screenshot of Jaedong for HomeStory Cup + Show Spoiler +
--------UPDATE Saturday, May 31 10:05pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Premier Round of 16 set! The round of 16 groups for WCS EU Premier have been set! Time to do an overview, look at the previews, and do an analysis of the groups to determine the group of death! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3175 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 95.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 88.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 83.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #8 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 81.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 71.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #10 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 66.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 65.68 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 Liquid Snute is at ~ 50.35 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 47.24 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 40.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16Bomber is at ~ 39.83 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #17 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 36.31 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #18 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 27.84 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Jinair Maru is at ~ 26.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #20 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.74 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #21 mouz VortiX is at ~ 21.77 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #22 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #23 Acer MMA is at ~ 19.07 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #24 NrS Welmu is at ~ 18.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 15.98 %, Min WCS Points: 525
Snute went down by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 52.19 % to ~ 50.35 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 26.7 % to ~ 25.74 % Harstem went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 4.18 % to ~ 3.45 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 5.38 %
WCS EU S2 Premier - First is at ~ 11.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.59 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.85 %. ~ 37.41 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.81 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.04 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.46 %. ~ 53.96 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 5.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.63 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.72 %. ~ 47.37 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 1.84 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.73 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.18 %. ~ 61.27 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.36 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MC is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.45 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 39.55 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 5.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.61 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.66 %. ~ 51.39 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 18.1 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.86 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.35 %. ~ 51.14 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.35 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 4.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.08 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.83 %. ~ 57.92 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.03 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 25.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.8 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.49 %. ~ 44.2 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 21.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.37 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.57 %. ~ 41.63 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 50.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.23 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 66.33 %. ~ 45.77 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 3.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.6 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.17 %. ~ 68.4 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.8 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - Nerchio is at ~ 5.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.37 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.63 %. ~ 64.63 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.26 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 27.74 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.52 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 1.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.74 % of the time LiveZerg wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.27 %. ~ 68.26 % of the time LiveZerg loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 71.47 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.62 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 84.52 %. ~ 39.38 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 51.37 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 18.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.87 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 10.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 71.47 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 10.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.74 % to ~ 99.99 % MC has a ~ 9.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % VortiX has a ~ 9.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 21.77 % to ~ 99.96 % Snute has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 50.35 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 8.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.85 % to ~ 85.68 % YoDa has a ~ 3.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.78 % to ~ 86.25 % Welmu has a ~ 3.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.1 % to ~ 99.99 % Golden has a ~ 3.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.62 % to ~ 89.88 % ToD has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.31 % to ~ 94.67 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.38 % to ~ 98.51 % MaNa has a ~ 2.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.54 % to ~ 94.62 % Harstem has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.45 % to ~ 87.24 % LiveZerg has a ~ 1.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.55 % to ~ 85.17 % Grubby has a ~ 1.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 93.59 %
Now let's look at some stats to figure out the group of death. We will look at 3 different scores the same way we did the GSL ro16 analysis. WCS EU Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Group A - Grubby has a ~ 1.18 % chance to win WCS EU Season 2. First has a ~ 8.81 % chance Golden has a ~ 3.69 % chance Mana has a ~ 2.27 % chance All these chances added up gives a 15.95 WCS EU Chances Score for Group A
Group B - Welmu has a ~ 3.73 % chance MC has a ~ 9.8 % chance ToD has a ~ 2.47 % chance YoDa has a ~ 3.82 % chance All these chances added up gives a 19.82 WCS EU Chances Score for Group B
Group C - Harstem has a ~ 2.26 % chance Snute has a ~ 9.16 % chance ForGG has a ~ 10.01 % chance VortiX has a ~ 9.57 % chance All these chances added up gives a 31 WCS EU Chances Score for Group C
Group D - LiveZerg has a ~ 1.19 % chance San has a ~ 18.73 % chance Nerchio has a ~ 2.45 % chance StarDust has a ~ 10.87 % chance All these chances added up gives a 33.24 WCS EU Chances Score for Group D
Which means the groups go in this order according to the WCS EU Chances Scores D > C > B > A
Group A - Grubby went up by ~ 0.13 %, from ~ 1.71 % up to ~ 1.84 % First went up by ~ 0.97 %, from ~ 10.88 % up to ~ 11.85 % Golden went up by ~ 0.41 %, from ~ 5.21 % up to ~ 5.62 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.37 %, from ~ 4.17 % up to ~ 4.54 % All these chances added up gives a 23.85 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -1.88 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group A.
Group B - Welmu went up by ~ 0.49 %, from ~ 17.61 % up to ~ 18.1 % MC stayed about the same, over 99.9999%, I'll count him as ~ 99.99 % ToD went down by about ~ 0.07 %, from ~ 4.38 % down to ~ 4.31 % YoDa went up by about ~ 0.12 %, from ~ 5.66 % up to ~ 5.78 % All these chances added up gives a 128.18 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -0.54 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group B.
Group C - Harstem went down by ~ 0.73 %, from ~ 4.18 % down to ~ 3.45 % Snute went down by ~ 1.84 %, from ~ 52.19 % down to ~ 50.35 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.96 %, from ~ 26.7 % down to ~ 25.74 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.18 %, from ~ 21.95 % down to ~ 21.77 % All these chances added up gives a 101.31 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 3.71 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group C.
Group D - LiveZerg went down by ~ 0.15 %, from ~ 1.7 % down to ~ 1.55 % San went up by ~ 0.04 %, from ~ 99.83 % up to ~ 99.87 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.67 %, from ~ 6.05 % down to ~ 5.38 % StarDust went up by ~ 0.57 %, from ~ 70.9 % up to ~ 71.47 % All these chances added up gives a 178.27 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 0.21 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group D.
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order D > B > C > A
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order C > D > B > A
So in 2/3 of our metrics we have Group D being the group of death, and it's 2nd place in the other metric, Group D is our Group of Death! Congrats to LiveZerg, San, Nerchio, and StarDust! Our 2nd place Group of Death is Group C which got huge 1st place in Blizzcon Chances Lost Score, as well as a 2nd and a 3rd placing in our metrics.
Also check out the new up and down arrows next to players' chances on the lists, the top of the page says when it is comparing to, which is the same comparison that Biggest Winners and Biggest Losers use. Mouse over the arrows to see the difference. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jun 05 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Premier Round of 16 set and HomeStory Cup 9 previews! The round of 16 groups for WCS AM Premier have been set! Time for the usual with ro16 Premier groups - overview, previews, and then analysis of Group of Death! Also HomeStory Cup 9 previews! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #2MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3175 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 97.37 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #6 StarTale Life is at ~ 89.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 79.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #8 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 79.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 70.25 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #10 Jinair sOs is at ~ 64.43 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #11 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #12 Liquid Snute is at ~ 52.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 43.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #14Bomber is at ~ 42.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 41.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 39.1 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 31.18 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #18 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 30.97 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Acer MMA is at ~ 30.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #20 Jinair Maru is at ~ 29.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 22.25 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #22VortiX is at ~ 21.39 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #23 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 16.57 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #24 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 15.75 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.46 %, Min WCS Points: 1175
Bomber went up by ~ 2.34 %, going from ~ 39.99 % to ~ 42.34 % Heart went up by ~ 1.44 %, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 9.64 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 11.27 % to ~ 12.01 %
Oz went down by ~ 1.64 %, going from ~ 17.39 % to ~ 15.75 % Check went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 15.46 % to ~ 14.46 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 9.67 % to ~ 8.76 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 16.17 % to ~ 15.46 %
WCS AM S2 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 12.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.52 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.35 %. ~ 42.48 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 2.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.93 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.36 %. ~ 56.07 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 9.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 63.07 % of the time Heart wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.9 %. ~ 36.93 % of the time Heart loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.38 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.73 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.49 % of the time XiGua wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.19 %. ~ 64.51 % of the time XiGua loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.38 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.7 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 27.3 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 15.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.35 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.5 %. ~ 62.65 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 15.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.97 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 27.49 %. ~ 55.03 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 10.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.98 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.91 %. ~ 55.02 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.63 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 42.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.27 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 53.56 %. ~ 33.73 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 9.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.84 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.38 %. ~ 52.16 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 14.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.25 % of the time Check wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.88 %. ~ 55.75 % of the time Check loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 2.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.65 % of the time Pigbaby wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.29 %. ~ 58.35 % of the time Pigbaby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.29 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.88 %. ~ 37.71 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 42.69 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 97.37 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.47 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.7 %. ~ 37.53 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 93.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 2.98 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.68 % of the time TooDming wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.81 %. ~ 64.32 % of the time TooDming loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 8.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.56 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.12 %. ~ 60.44 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.29 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier HyuN has a ~ 23.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 13.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.37 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa has a ~ 11.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 10.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.34 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 97.69 % Heart has a ~ 5.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.64 % to ~ 97.64 % Alicia has a ~ 4.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.46 % to ~ 100 % Arthur has a ~ 3.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.63 % to ~ 99.86 % Check has a ~ 3.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.46 % to ~ 99.99 % Revival has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.95 % to ~ 99.99 % MajOr has a ~ 3.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.76 % to ~ 99.71 % Oz has a ~ 2.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.75 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.9 % to ~ 74.26 % NesTea has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.64 % to ~ 86.67 % TooDming has a ~ 1.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.98 % to ~ 96.72 % XiGua has a ~ 1.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.73 % to ~ 89.46 %
HomeStory Cup 9 - MMA is at ~ 30.71 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 73.45 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.88 %. ~ 26.55 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 2.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.35 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.99 %. ~ 30.65 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 0.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.99 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.45 %. ~ 49.01 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iNcontroL is at ~ 0 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 6.2 % of the time iNcontroL wins and their chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 93.8 % of the time iNcontroL loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - jjakji is at ~ 79.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.33 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 84.73 %. ~ 27.67 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 67.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NightEnD is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.78 % of the time NightEnD wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 74.22 % of the time NightEnD loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TargA is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.68 % of the time TargA wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 46.32 % of the time TargA loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HeRoMaRinE is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.22 % of the time HeRoMaRinE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 51.78 % of the time HeRoMaRinE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - MC is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.4 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 27.6 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 3.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.2 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.03 %. ~ 42.8 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 0.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.92 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.8 %. ~ 56.08 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.48 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.52 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - Snute is at ~ 52.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 81.93 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.24 %. ~ 18.07 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 40.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.69 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 62.31 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - White-Ra is at ~ 0 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 13.2 % of the time White-Ra wins and their chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 86.8 % of the time White-Ra loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.84 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.19 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.99 %. ~ 32.81 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.52 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - Bomber is at ~ 42.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 79.26 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.83 %. ~ 20.74 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 32.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 4.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.47 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.84 %. ~ 42.53 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ret is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.28 % of the time Ret wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.72 % of the time Ret loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.99 % of the time Balloon wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.01 % of the time Balloon loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - YoDa is at ~ 5.89 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.99 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.76 %. ~ 49.01 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.18 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.37 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.84 %. ~ 52.63 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 43.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.95 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 49.82 %. ~ 33.05 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 30.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.69 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 65.31 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - Stephano is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.4 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.63 %. ~ 52.6 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HasuObs is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.99 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 51.01 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 3.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.12 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.09 %. ~ 43.88 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Armani is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.48 % of the time Armani wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.05 %. ~ 52.52 % of the time Armani loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.86 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 68.37 %. ~ 33.14 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 53.27 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 0.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.39 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.4 %. ~ 52.61 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - roof is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 23.97 % of the time roof wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 76.03 % of the time roof loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 7.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.77 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.28 %. ~ 38.23 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.48 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 MMA has a ~ 11.9 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 30.71 % to ~ 63.24 % jjakji has a ~ 10.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 79.85 % to ~ 99.94 % Snute has a ~ 10.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 52.52 % to ~ 83.12 % MC has a ~ 9.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 43.54 % to ~ 87.09 % Bomber has a ~ 7.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.34 % to ~ 74.41 % TaeJa has a ~ 7.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 94.15 % Patience has a ~ 6.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.83 % to ~ 22.14 % Stork has a ~ 3.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.84 % to ~ 2.7 % Bunny has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.36 % to ~ 14.26 % Scarlett has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.88 % YoDa has a ~ 2.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.89 % to ~ 14.31 % HasuObs has a ~ 2.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.23 % TLO has a ~ 2.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 14.58 % Harstem has a ~ 1.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 9.39 % ToD has a ~ 1.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.38 % to ~ 11.47 % HeRoMaRinE has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.18 % MaNa has a ~ 1.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.18 % to ~ 12.34 % Stephano has a ~ 1.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 1.85 % TargA has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.13 % Armani has a ~ 1.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.24 % BlinG has a ~ 1.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.36 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 3.21 % Socke has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 %
Now let's look at some stats to figure out the group of death. We will look at 3 different scores the same way we did the GSL and WCS EU ro16 analysis. WCS AM Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Group A - viOLet has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win WCS AM Season 2. NesTea has a ~ 1.86 % chance XiGua has a ~ 1.16 % chance Heart has a ~ 5.51 % chance All these chances added up gives a 14.47 WCS AM Chances Score for Group A
Group B - Alicia has a ~ 4.57 % chance Revival has a ~ 3.68 % chance HyuN has a ~ 23.38 % chance Oz has a ~ 2.79 % chance 34.42 WCS AM Chances Score for Group B
Group C - Pigbaby has a ~ 2.37 % chance Arthur has a ~ 3.98 % chance Bomber has a ~ 10.42 % chance Check has a ~ 3.74 % chance 20.51 WCS AM Chances Score for Group C
Group D - TaeJa has a ~ 11.78 % chance TooDming has a ~ 1.63 % chance Polt has a ~ 13.98 % chance MajOr has a ~ 3.22 % chance 30.61 WCS AM Chances Score for Group D
Which means the groups go in this order according to the WCS AM Chances Scores B > D > C > A
Group A - viOLet went up by ~ 0.74 %, from ~ 11.27 % up to ~ 12.01 % NesTea went up by ~ 0.11 %, from ~ 2.53 % up to ~ 2.64 % XiGua went down by ~ 0.04 %, from ~ 1.77 % down to ~ 1.73 % Heart went up by ~ 1.44 %, from ~ 8.2 % up to ~ 9.64 % All these chances added up gives a 26.02 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.25 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group A.
Group B - Alicia went down by ~ 0.71 %, from ~ 16.17 % down to ~ 15.46 % Revival went down by ~ 0.48 %, from ~ 11.43 % down to ~ 10.95 % HyuN stayed about the same, above 99.9999%, we'll just consider him 99.99% Oz went down by ~ 1.64 %, from ~ 17.39 % down to ~ 15.75 % 142.15 Blizzcon Chances Score, and 2.83 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group B
Group C - Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.06 %, from ~ 2.96 % down to ~ 2.9 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.09 %, from ~ 9.72 % down to ~ 9.63 % Bomber went up by ~ 2.35 %, from ~ 39.99 % up to ~ 42.34 % Check went down by ~ 1 %, from ~ 15.46 % down to ~ 14.46 % 69.33 Blizzcon Chances Score, and -1.2 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group C
Group D - TaeJa went up by ~ 0.37 %, from ~ 62.99 % up to ~ 63.36 % TooDming went down by ~ 0.18 %, from ~ 3.16 % down to ~ 2.98 % Polt went down by ~ 0.14 %, from ~ 97.51 % down to ~ 97.37 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.91 %, from ~ 9.67 % down to ~ 8.76 % 172.47 Blizzcon Chances Score, and 0.86 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group D
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order D > B > C > A
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order B > D > C > A
So in 2/3 of our metrics we have Group B being the group of death, and it's 2nd place in the other metric, Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Alicia, Revival, HyuN, and Oz! Our 2nd place Group of Death is Group D which got 1st place in Blizzcon Chances Score, as well as a 2nd placing in our 2 other metrics.
WCS AM did a redraw on their ro16 groups. Maybe I'll redo the whole analysis for it later. For now here are the big changes from that redraw, but this also includes the changes from HomeStory Cup and of course Aligulac rating changes.
jjakji went up by ~ 5.02 %, going from ~ 79.86 % to ~ 84.88 % Oz went up by ~ 3.2 %, going from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 18.94 % MMA went up by ~ 2.67 %, going from ~ 30.7 % to ~ 33.37 % Snute went up by ~ 2.11 %, going from ~ 52.54 % to ~ 54.65 % TLO went up by ~ 0.97 %, going from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 3.5 %
Bomber went down by ~ 2.99 %, going from ~ 42.35 % to ~ 39.36 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.28 %, going from ~ 43.55 % to ~ 42.26 % Heart went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 9.64 % to ~ 8.5 % Revival went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 10.94 % to ~ 10.16 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 9.63 % to ~ 8.85 % TaeJa went down by ~ 0.7 %, going from ~ 63.35 % to ~ 62.64 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.63 %, going from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 11.38 % Harstem went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 2.97 % Check went down by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 14.46 % to ~ 13.86 %
Looks like Oz really benefited from his new group, while the new groups hurt Bomber, Heart, Revival, and Arthur.
GSL S2 Code S - Soulkey is at ~ 16.47 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.51 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 26.24 %. ~ 43.49 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 39.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.09 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 51.31 %. ~ 32.91 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 13.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 97.93 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.39 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.98 %. ~ 53.61 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 96.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 1.47 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.01 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.6 %. ~ 69.99 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.12 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - Bomber is at ~ 39.4 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 79.27 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 41.68 %. ~ 20.73 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 30.65 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 4.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.45 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.62 %. ~ 42.55 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ret is at ~ 0 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.3 % of the time Ret wins and their chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.7 % of the time Ret loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.97 % of the time Balloon wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.03 % of the time Balloon loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - YoDa is at ~ 5.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.04 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.58 %. ~ 48.96 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.37 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.63 %. ~ 52.63 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 42.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.89 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 48.01 %. ~ 33.11 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 30.55 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.7 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 65.3 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - Stephano is at ~ 0.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.41 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.59 %. ~ 52.59 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HasuObs is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.02 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 50.98 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 3.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.12 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.92 %. ~ 43.88 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.41 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Armani is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.46 % of the time Armani wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 52.54 % of the time Armani loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
HomeStory Cup 9 - TaeJa is at ~ 62.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.84 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 67.42 %. ~ 33.16 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 52.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 0.27 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.34 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.38 %. ~ 52.66 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - roof is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 24 % of the time roof wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 76 % of the time roof loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 7.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.82 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.92 %. ~ 38.18 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.39 %.
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3800 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #3 KT Zest is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 99.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 97.58 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #6 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 97.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #7 StarTale Life is at ~ 90.43 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 86.64 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 81.07 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 70.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 65.29 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 EG Jaedong is at ~ 46.11 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #13 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 40.72 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #14 Liquid Snute is at ~ 39.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #15Bomber is at ~ 39.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 31.29 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #17 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 30.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #18 Jinair Maru is at ~ 28.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #19 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 27.28 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #20 Acer MMA is at ~ 26.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 22.36 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #22 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 21.26 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #23 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 18.91 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 14.21 %, Min WCS Points: 700
We now have 7 players with over 90% chances! MC, HyuN, Zest, San, Polt, TaeJa, and Life! And then over 50% we have jjakji, CJ herO, StarDust, and sOs! Finishing off the current top 16 in chances we have Jaedong, soO, Snute, Bomber, and ForGG.
MC is at a monstrous minimum WCS Points of 3,800, mode of 4,750, and a median of 4,875! MC has been over 99.99% since April 13th!
TaeJa went up by ~ 33.97 %, going from ~ 63.04 % to ~ 97.01 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.32 %, going from ~ 42.79 % to ~ 46.11 % jjakji went up by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 85.45 % to ~ 86.64 % Dayshi went up by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.02 % to ~ 2.07 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 0.25 % to ~ 0.89 % herO went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 80.56 % to ~ 81.07 %
Snute went down by ~ 15.42 %, going from ~ 55.22 % to ~ 39.8 % MMA went down by ~ 7.39 %, going from ~ 33.96 % to ~ 26.58 % Patience went down by ~ 2.95 %, going from ~ 7.71 % to ~ 4.76 % TLO went down by ~ 2.14 %, going from ~ 3.57 % to ~ 1.43 % ToD went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 4.27 % to ~ 2.88 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 13.37 % to ~ 12.17 % YoDa went down by ~ 1.17 %, going from ~ 5.88 % to ~ 4.71 % soO went down by ~ 1.1 %, going from ~ 41.83 % to ~ 40.72 % Solar went down by ~ 1.08 %, going from ~ 23.44 % to ~ 22.36 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 3.33 % to ~ 2.36 % HerO went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 6.61 % to ~ 5.69 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 8.77 % to ~ 8.08 % Stork went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 1.03 % to ~ 0.52 % Classic went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 31.16 % to ~ 30.66 %
Team Liquid is catching up to mYinsanity for the #1 team spot, with Liquid's ~ 9.38% vs mYinsanity's ~ 9.82%. On Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00) it was ~ 9.75% for mYinsanity and ~ 8.49% for Team Liquid.
Terran with ~ 28.53% is catching up to Zerg's ~ 28.73%, while Protoss still holds a strong lead at ~ 42.74%. On Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00) it was at ~ 26.95% T, ~ 29.76% Z, and ~ 43.28% P.
Make sure to check out the upcoming matches section on the website, I see lots of red and pink upcoming matches! Here is the next one, WCS EU Ro16 Group A, with BOTH top foreign hopes Snute and Vortix, along with Harstem and ForGG! Starts in + Show Spoiler [ForGG, VortiX, Snute, Harstem in WCS E…] +
WCS EU S2 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 31.29 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.5 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.29 %. ~ 43.5 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 21.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.53 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.16 %. ~ 42.47 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 39.8 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.02 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.93 %. ~ 44.98 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 2.89 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.96 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.91 %. ~ 69.04 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.65 %.
The upcoming group in WCS EU is, for me at least, the most interesting. Isn't it weird that there is no information about WCS EU Ro16 on this web page? I was expecting to see a live thread and preview and everything, but it isn't even listed as an upcoming event... is it really today?
On June 09 2014 21:32 BaneRiders wrote: The upcoming group in WCS EU is, for me at least, the most interesting. Isn't it weird that there is no information about WCS EU Ro16 on this web page? I was expecting to see a live thread and preview and everything, but it isn't even listed as an upcoming event... is it really today?
It's weird. This group was supposed to be the group C but now it's group A. There has never been any public announcement about that, I discovered it two days ago while browsing Liquipedia.
On June 09 2014 21:32 BaneRiders wrote: The upcoming group in WCS EU is, for me at least, the most interesting. Isn't it weird that there is no information about WCS EU Ro16 on this web page? I was expecting to see a live thread and preview and everything, but it isn't even listed as an upcoming event... is it really today?
It's weird. This group was supposed to be the group C but now it's group A. There has never been any public announcement about that, I discovered it two days ago while browsing Liquipedia.
Yea I didn't notice that before either, weird. I guess they moved them around because of Dreamhack?
On June 09 2014 21:32 BaneRiders wrote: The upcoming group in WCS EU is, for me at least, the most interesting. Isn't it weird that there is no information about WCS EU Ro16 on this web page? I was expecting to see a live thread and preview and everything, but it isn't even listed as an upcoming event... is it really today?
It's weird. This group was supposed to be the group C but now it's group A. There has never been any public announcement about that, I discovered it two days ago while browsing Liquipedia.
Yea I didn't notice that before either, weird. I guess they moved them around because of Dreamhack?
--------UPDATE Thursday, Jun 12 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Summer Group Stage 2 Previews! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 By Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3900 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #3 KT Zest is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 99.88 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 97.44 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 97.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #7 StarTale Life is at ~ 89.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 86.61 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 80.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 69.83 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 64.73 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 47.13 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 45.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #14 Jinair Maru is at ~ 43.07 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 39.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16Bomber is at ~ 38.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 36.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1000 #18 Liquid Snute is at ~ 29.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #19 Acer MMA is at ~ 27.44 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #20 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 26.29 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 21.55 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #22First is at ~ 19.42 %, Min WCS Points: 400 #23 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 17.61 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 14.76 %, Min WCS Points: 700
Here are the DreamHack Summer Group Stage 2 previews. These previews only show the stats for the 2 players set in their group, but they are counting the players from group stage 1 too. Starts in + Show Spoiler [Scarlett, Harstem in DreamHack Summer] +
DreamHack Summer - Scarlett is at ~ 0.97 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 80.03 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.07 %. ~ 19.97 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 1.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.73 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.74 %. ~ 28.27 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.36 %.
DreamHack Summer - HyuN is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 88.72 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 11.28 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 1.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.02 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.55 %. ~ 29.98 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.21 %.
DreamHack Summer - First is at ~ 19.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.66 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.85 %. ~ 14.34 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.73 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 51.27 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - MC is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.13 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 15.87 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 17.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.44 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.84 %. ~ 27.56 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.38 %.
DreamHack Summer - ForGG is at ~ 36.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.91 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.73 %. ~ 14.09 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.31 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 1.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.41 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.53 %. ~ 28.59 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.14 %.
DreamHack Summer - Patience is at ~ 4.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 82.46 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.85 %. ~ 17.54 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.88 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zanster is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.03 % of the time Zanster wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 33.97 % of the time Zanster loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - Snute is at ~ 29.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.99 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.39 %. ~ 15.01 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 23.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.96 % of the time uThermal wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.21 %. ~ 30.04 % of the time uThermal loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.13 %.
DreamHack Summer - San is at ~ 99.88 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.43 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.9 %. ~ 10.57 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.18 % of the time Balloon wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 41.82 % of the time Balloon loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - TaeJa is at ~ 97.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 88.04 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 97.76 %. ~ 11.96 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 95.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.22 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 38.78 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - Tefel is at ~ 0.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.9 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.25 %. ~ 30.1 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 2.5 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 80.74 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.6 %. ~ 19.26 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.08 %.
DreamHack Summer - StarDust is at ~ 69.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.46 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.48 %. ~ 14.54 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 60.1 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Serral is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.57 % of the time Serral wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 32.43 % of the time Serral loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - MMA is at ~ 27.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 86.94 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.73 %. ~ 13.06 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 18.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ShoWTimE is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.39 % of the time ShoWTimE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 29.61 % of the time ShoWTimE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - jjakji is at ~ 86.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.01 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 87.94 %. ~ 10.99 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 75.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.95 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 43.05 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Summer - Jaedong is at ~ 45.39 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.98 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 47.2 %. ~ 14.02 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 34.27 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 4.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.95 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.42 %. ~ 27.05 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.61 %.
DreamHack Summer - YoDa is at ~ 2.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.98 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.45 %. ~ 23.02 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 1.91 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 75.18 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.05 %. ~ 24.82 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.49 %.
DreamHack Summer - HerO is at ~ 5.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.75 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.89 %. ~ 23.25 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.75 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.02 %. ~ 27.25 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.29 %.
DreamHack Summer HyuN has a ~ 8.58 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 8.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.88 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 6.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 27.44 % to ~ 63.12 % jjakji has a ~ 6.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 86.61 % to ~ 99.99 % ForGG has a ~ 6.65 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 36.82 % to ~ 60.1 % TaeJa has a ~ 6.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.44 % to ~ 100 % MC has a ~ 5.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 5.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 69.83 % to ~ 98.29 % Snute has a ~ 4.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 29.33 % to ~ 60.42 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.9 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 45.39 % to ~ 93.43 % First has a ~ 4.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.42 % to ~ 30.02 % Patience has a ~ 3.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.68 % to ~ 11.42 % Scarlett has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 5.72 % Bunny has a ~ 2.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 7.74 % HerO has a ~ 2.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.46 % to ~ 24.12 % Golden has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.2 % to ~ 9.39 % YoDa has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.34 % to ~ 5.48 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.91 % to ~ 10.1 % Oz has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.61 % to ~ 56.38 % HuK has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.45 % to ~ 5.1 % Harstem has a ~ 1.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.63 % to ~ 3.99 % MaNa has a ~ 1.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.82 % to ~ 11.14 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 1.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.11 % TLO has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.42 % to ~ 8.03 % uThermal has a ~ 0.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.77 % Tefel has a ~ 0.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 0.99 % Serral has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % Zanster has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Socke has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 %
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jun 17 5:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Summer in Review! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350 #2 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3325 #3 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3225 #4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #5 KT Zest is at ~ 99.9 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 95.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #7 StarTale Life is at ~ 91.02 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 81.91 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 75.32 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 74.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #11 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 70.57 %, Min WCS Points: 2000 #12 EG Jaedong is at ~ 67.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 57.33 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 50.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #15Bomber is at ~ 40.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #16 Jinair Maru is at ~ 40.72 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 40.57 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #18 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 27.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #19First is at ~ 21.99 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #20 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 19.79 %, Min WCS Points: 1425 #21 Liquid HerO is at ~ 16.41 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #22 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.86 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #23 Acer MMA is at ~ 15.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #24 NrS Welmu is at ~ 13.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1350 #25 Jinair TRUE is at ~ 13.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1000
Jaedong went up by ~ 14.99 %, going from ~ 43.28 % to ~ 58.28 % HerO went up by ~ 7.83 %, going from ~ 5.11 % to ~ 12.94 % Oz went up by ~ 4.43 %, going from ~ 16.56 % to ~ 20.99 % First went up by ~ 4.14 %, going from ~ 18.43 % to ~ 22.57 % TaeJa went up by ~ 3.05 %, going from ~ 96.95 % to ~ 99.99 % soO went up by ~ 2.06 %, going from ~ 70.18 % to ~ 72.24 % Patience went up by ~ 0.97 %, going from ~ 4.53 % to ~ 5.5 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 0.86 % to ~ 1.57 %
StarDust went down by ~ 12.49 %, going from ~ 80.65 % to ~ 68.16 % MMA went down by ~ 9.78 %, going from ~ 26.03 % to ~ 16.25 % Snute went down by ~ 5.76 %, going from ~ 16.03 % to ~ 10.27 % sOs went down by ~ 1.69 %, going from ~ 62.16 % to ~ 60.48 % Golden went down by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 6.44 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 42.97 % to ~ 41.74 % Maru went down by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 42.77 % to ~ 41.83 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.66 %, going from ~ 1.82 % to ~ 1.16 %
Also I set the confirmed MLG open bracket players, here are the biggest winners and losers from that. (I have not yet programmed in the full format so the previews will come later.) + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
Jaedong went up by ~ 9.12 %, going from ~ 58.28 % to ~ 67.39 % StarDust went up by ~ 6.09 %, going from ~ 68.16 % to ~ 74.24 % Bomber went up by ~ 4.58 %, going from ~ 36.3 % to ~ 40.88 % HerO went up by ~ 3.47 %, going from ~ 12.94 % to ~ 16.41 % Life went up by ~ 2.99 %, going from ~ 88.03 % to ~ 91.02 % Alicia went up by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 14.19 % to ~ 15.86 % Revival went up by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 8.58 % to ~ 9.48 %
sOs went down by ~ 3.14 %, going from ~ 60.48 % to ~ 57.33 % jjakji went down by ~ 3.1 %, going from ~ 85.01 % to ~ 81.91 % herO went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 78.01 % to ~ 75.32 % soO went down by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 72.24 % to ~ 70.57 % Polt went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 97.16 % to ~ 95.86 % Oz went down by ~ 1.21 %, going from ~ 20.99 % to ~ 19.79 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 41.74 % to ~ 40.57 % MMA went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 16.25 % to ~ 15.12 % Maru went down by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 41.83 % to ~ 40.72 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.97 %, going from ~ 13.63 % to ~ 12.66 % Classic went down by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 51.37 % to ~ 50.52 % Rain went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 11.42 % to ~ 10.66 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 9.2 % to ~ 8.49 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.7 %, going from ~ 14.09 % to ~ 13.39 % Check went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 13.59 % to ~ 12.91 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 28.18 % to ~ 27.5 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 12.85 % to ~ 12.26 % Snute went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 10.27 % to ~ 9.69 % First went down by ~ 0.57 %, going from ~ 22.57 % to ~ 21.99 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 13.62 % to ~ 13.06 %
GSL S2 Code S - Maru is at ~ 40.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.57 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 74.76 %. ~ 56.43 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 50.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.43 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 80.9 %. ~ 43.57 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 11.18 %.
GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 70.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.13 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 94.27 %. ~ 37.87 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 13.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.87 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 32.79 %. ~ 62.13 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.03 %.
Also I added tournament pages! You can now click on a tournament name to see the players who have at least a small chance of winning the tournament, upcoming matches for the tournament, the winning chances, and also who would gain the most from winning the tournament. Here are a few example pages.
I hope to improve the tournament pages more in the future, along with the pages for races, countries, teams, and favorite players. -----------------------
On June 18 2014 02:59 McRatyn wrote: Wow looks like the outcomes of GSL SF's have an enormous impact on the chances! Some additional flavor to watch
2000 WCS points for 1st place is huge, we still only have 13 players with 2000 or more points. 2nd place gets 1000 points, only 31 players have 1000 or more points.
I checked how it works and i understood a little bit (not a mathematician). It predicts individual game result chances and add em to simulate the tournament chances and WCS points that each player are expected to get right? Looks good But isn't the system weaker for current form prediction and players with inconsistent skill (players with fast improvement or in a slump)? Just want to know if its better for long term predictions than for short term ones (what i understood). Because there is also those ELO ratings around and they are very different from the aligulac ones. ELO is of course terrible mixing kespa players with the ones in the foreign scene, but they seen to be ok if you sepparate those two groups.
On June 20 2014 19:47 Superbanana wrote: I checked how it works and i understood a little bit (not a mathematician). It predicts individual game result chances and add em to simulate the tournament chances and WCS points that each player are expected to get right? Looks good But isn't the system weaker for current form prediction and players with inconsistent skill (players with fast improvement or in a slump)? Just want to know if its better for long term predictions than for short term ones (what i understood). Because there is also those ELO ratings around and they are very different. ELO is of course terrible mixing kespa players with the ones in the foreign scene, but they seen to be ok if you sepparate those two groups.
You're correct in how it basically works, it simulates each tournament and qualifier and adds up the WCS points then sees who the top 16 is for each simulation. It also counts up players' chances when different things happen, for example if you look at the Upcoming Matches section, the Possible Tournament Winners section, or if you go to a player's page and look at their events table at the bottom of the page, for example Jaedong's page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=73
It doesn't use Elo though, it uses Aligulac ratings, which are similar. Aligulac is a great player rating system and player database, check it out http://aligulac.com/
Aligulac isn't really made for long term predictions, although I make the predictions slightly closer to 50/50 chances for each match to be more conservative, which helps with long term predictions.
On June 20 2014 19:47 Superbanana wrote: I checked how it works and i understood a little bit (not a mathematician). It predicts individual game result chances and add em to simulate the tournament chances and WCS points that each player are expected to get right? Looks good But isn't the system weaker for current form prediction and players with inconsistent skill (players with fast improvement or in a slump)? Just want to know if its better for long term predictions than for short term ones (what i understood). Because there is also those ELO ratings around and they are very different. ELO is of course terrible mixing kespa players with the ones in the foreign scene, but they seen to be ok if you sepparate those two groups.
You're correct in how it basically works, it simulates each tournament and qualifier and adds up the WCS points then sees who the top 16 is for each simulation. It also counts up players' chances when different things happen, for example if you look at the Upcoming Matches section, the Possible Tournament Winners section, or if you go to a player's page and look at their events table at the bottom of the page, for example Jaedong's page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=73
It doesn't use Elo though, it uses Aligulac ratings, which are similar. Aligulac is a great player rating system and player database, check it out http://aligulac.com/
Aligulac isn't really made for long term predictions, although I make the predictions slightly closer to 50/50 chances for each match to be more conservative, which helps with long term predictions.
Thank you. Found the link explaining the Glicko system, still have to read that, but since its supposed to be an ELO improvement it makes all your work with the aligulac rating and WCS predictor even more fascinating. I know the ELO system because im a chess fan.
MLG Anaheim - Polt is at ~ 97.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.11 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.37 %. ~ 48.89 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 96.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 1.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.34 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.37 %. ~ 59.66 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 0.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.87 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.55 %. ~ 80.13 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.1 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 4.65 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.24 %. ~ 95.35 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 0.98 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 11.46 % of the time puCK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.37 %. ~ 88.54 % of the time puCK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Petraeus is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 20.4 % of the time Petraeus wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.05 %. ~ 79.6 % of the time Petraeus loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
MLG Anaheim - viOLet is at ~ 8.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.19 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.39 %. ~ 69.81 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 0.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.59 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.34 %. ~ 80.41 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.81 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 0.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 12.79 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.01 %. ~ 87.21 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 12.65 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.01 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 14.99 %. ~ 62.99 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 11.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 3.77 % of the time Miniraser wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 96.23 % of the time Miniraser loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 0.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.77 % of the time hendralisk wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.59 %. ~ 80.23 % of the time hendralisk loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.21 %.
MLG Anaheim Polt has a ~ 15.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.79 % to ~ 99.99 % Scarlett has a ~ 12.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.68 % to ~ 4.24 % HyuN has a ~ 9.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 7.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.65 % to ~ 22.13 % viOLet has a ~ 5.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.67 % to ~ 14.53 % Life has a ~ 5.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 89.54 % to ~ 100 % Trap has a ~ 4.84 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.26 % Petraeus has a ~ 4.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.14 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 64.27 % to ~ 99.82 % StarDust has a ~ 3.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 71.72 % to ~ 99.66 % hendralisk has a ~ 3.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.14 % TLO has a ~ 3.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.92 % to ~ 2.8 % Bomber has a ~ 2.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 39.07 % to ~ 78.51 % puCK has a ~ 2.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 2.15 % Leenock has a ~ 1.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 3.41 % HuK has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 1.58 % RagnaroK has a ~ 1.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.9 % HerO has a ~ 1.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.67 % to ~ 66.86 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.59 % to ~ 2.25 % Alicia has a ~ 0.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.5 % to ~ 43.87 % Heart has a ~ 0.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.78 % to ~ 17.68 % Revival has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.98 % to ~ 29.23 % Illusion has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.45 % Apocalypse has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.26 % Harstem has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 1.91 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.17 % to ~ 31.72 % herO has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 74.83 % to ~ 99.98 % sOs has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 56.98 % to ~ 99.79 % MMA has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.03 % to ~ 53.7 % jjakji has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 81.43 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.97 % to ~ 33.56 % Rain has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.54 % to ~ 42.43 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.45 % to ~ 21.54 % Classic has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 78.32 % to ~ 99.28 % Snute has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.53 % to ~ 37.83 % Maru has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.84 % to ~ 54.57 % Dear has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.82 % to ~ 22.86 % Patience has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.02 % to ~ 20.33 % Solar has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.84 % to ~ 14.01 % soO has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 93.98 % to ~ 100 % Happy has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.52 % to ~ 5.98 % Golden has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.6 % to ~ 16.38 % Hydra has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 2.12 % Bunny has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 5.76 % Dark has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.59 % Arthur has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.61 % to ~ 12.83 % Oz has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.55 % to ~ 66.08 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.1 % to ~ 8.62 % Stephano has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 1.53 % Top has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 1.6 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 2.74 %
I'm thinking of changing the text for upcoming matches since it seems to be confusing for some people. Maybe something like this? -Polt has a ~ 97.79 % chance to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.11 % of the time Polt wins this match and their chances go up to ~ 99.37 %. ~ 48.89 % of the time Polt loses this match and their chances go down to ~ 96.14 %.
MLG Anaheim - Polt is at ~ 97.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.14 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.36 %. ~ 48.86 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 96.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 1.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.33 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.38 %. ~ 59.67 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.2 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 0.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.85 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.55 %. ~ 80.15 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 4.62 % of the time Illusion wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.24 %. ~ 95.38 % of the time Illusion loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 0.98 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.46 % of the time puCK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.39 %. ~ 88.54 % of the time puCK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Petraeus is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 20.41 % of the time Petraeus wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.06 %. ~ 79.59 % of the time Petraeus loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
MLG Anaheim - viOLet is at ~ 8.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.26 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.38 %. ~ 69.74 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 7.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 0.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.59 % of the time TLO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.29 %. ~ 80.41 % of the time TLO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.81 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 0.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.79 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.96 %. ~ 87.21 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 12.7 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.96 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.07 %. ~ 63.04 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 11.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 3.79 % of the time Miniraser wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 96.21 % of the time Miniraser loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 0.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.75 % of the time hendralisk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.57 %. ~ 80.25 % of the time hendralisk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.21 %.
MLG Anaheim Polt has a ~ 15.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 97.78 % to ~ 99.99 % Scarlett has a ~ 12.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.67 % to ~ 4.19 % HyuN has a ~ 9.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.7 % to ~ 22.14 % viOLet has a ~ 5.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.67 % to ~ 14.58 % Life has a ~ 5.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.49 % to ~ 99.99 % Trap has a ~ 4.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.28 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.28 % to ~ 99.82 % Petraeus has a ~ 4.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.13 % StarDust has a ~ 3.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 71.71 % to ~ 99.63 % hendralisk has a ~ 3.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.07 % TLO has a ~ 3.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.91 % to ~ 2.77 % Bomber has a ~ 2.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.08 % to ~ 78.61 % puCK has a ~ 2.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 2.12 % Leenock has a ~ 1.92 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 3.41 % HuK has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 1.51 % RagnaroK has a ~ 1.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.97 % HerO has a ~ 1.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.64 % to ~ 66.6 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 1.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.59 % to ~ 2.18 % Alicia has a ~ 0.71 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.51 % to ~ 43.74 % Heart has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.76 % to ~ 16.94 % Revival has a ~ 0.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.97 % to ~ 29.1 % Illusion has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.38 % Apocalypse has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.16 % Harstem has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 2.12 % herO has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 74.87 % to ~ 99.97 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.14 % to ~ 31.2 % sOs has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 56.99 % to ~ 99.84 % MMA has a ~ 0.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.02 % to ~ 54.74 % TooDming has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.69 % to ~ 7.65 % jjakji has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 81.45 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.99 % to ~ 33.8 % Rain has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.54 % to ~ 42.77 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.48 % to ~ 21.58 % Classic has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 78.33 % to ~ 99.15 % Snute has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.53 % to ~ 37.2 % Maru has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.78 % to ~ 53.38 % Dear has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.84 % to ~ 22.82 % Solar has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.8 % to ~ 14.31 % Patience has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.02 % to ~ 18.52 % soO has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.99 % to ~ 100 % Bbyong has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.65 % to ~ 5.94 % MaSa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 3.77 % Bunny has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.86 % to ~ 5.82 % Jim has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 2.48 % Check has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.41 % to ~ 44.85 % Squirtle has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.42 % to ~ 1.79 % Arthur has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.6 % to ~ 17.56 % Welmu has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.25 % to ~ 46.97 % MarineKing has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.27 % MaNa has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.37 % to ~ 3.92 %
--------UPDATE Monday, Jun 23 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3325 #4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #5 KT Zest is at ~ 99.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2800 #7 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 94.45 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 StarTale Life is at ~ 93.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 83.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #10 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 80.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #11 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 76.53 %, Min WCS Points: 1900 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 73.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 57.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 EG Jaedong is at ~ 53.23 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #15Bomber is at ~ 41.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 39.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #17 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 24.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #18First is at ~ 21.15 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #19 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1425 #20 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.4 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #21 Acer MMA is at ~ 14.63 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #22viOLet is at ~ 13.91 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #23 NrS Welmu is at ~ 13.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1350 #24 Jinair Maru is at ~ 12.91 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 12.57 %, Min WCS Points: 700
WCS AM S2 Premier - Heart is at ~ 6.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.77 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.76 %. ~ 47.23 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 20.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.35 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 30.45 %. ~ 43.65 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 6.73 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.44 % of the time XiGua wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.22 %. ~ 58.56 % of the time XiGua loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 2.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.44 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.58 %. ~ 50.56 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.29 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.27 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 28.73 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 1.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.94 % of the time NesTea wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.35 %. ~ 63.06 % of the time NesTea loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 15.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.26 % of the time Alicia wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 25.06 %. ~ 48.74 % of the time Alicia loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 8.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.53 % of the time Revival wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.51 %. ~ 59.47 % of the time Revival loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.89 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 41.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.33 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 55.76 %. ~ 40.67 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 20.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 99.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.03 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 34.97 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.6 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 2.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.3 % of the time TooDming wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.11 %. ~ 66.7 % of the time TooDming loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.35 % of the time Check wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 23.32 %. ~ 57.65 % of the time Check loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.68 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.66 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 29.34 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - viOLet is at ~ 13.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.32 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.88 %. ~ 50.68 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.18 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 9.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.23 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 6.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.08 % of the time Arthur wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.67 %. ~ 65.92 % of the time Arthur loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.47 %.
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. I did this before but I have to redo it now since the groups were redrawn. This time we will be looking at 5 different scores instead of just the normal 3. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Affects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Heart has a ~ 3.79 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Oz has a ~ 4.31 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier XiGua has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Pigbaby has a ~ 2.35 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 11.587
Group B HyuN has a ~ 20.49 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier NesTea has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Alicia has a ~ 5.06 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Revival has a ~ 3.02 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.0157
Group C Bomber has a ~ 8.85 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 12.95 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier TooDming has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Check has a ~ 3.52 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 26.7719
Group D TaeJa has a ~ 18.85 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier viOLet has a ~ 5.86 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier MajOr has a ~ 4.27 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Arthur has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 31.6254
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores D > B > C > A
Group A Heart is at ~ 6.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Oz is at ~ 20.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 XiGua is at ~ 1.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Pigbaby is at ~ 2.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 30.4117
Group B HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 NesTea is at ~ 1.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Alicia is at ~ 15.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Revival is at ~ 8.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 125.616
Group C Bomber is at ~ 41.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Polt is at ~ 99.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TooDming is at ~ 2.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Check is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 156.13
Group D TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 viOLet is at ~ 13.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MajOr is at ~ 9.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Arthur is at ~ 6.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 130.049
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores C > D > B > A
Group A Heart's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.36 % Oz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 2.04 % XiGua's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.17 % Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.28 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -2.86117
Group B HyuN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % NesTea's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.0 % Alicia's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.32 % Revival's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.6 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.385503
Group C Bomber's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.24 % Polt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % TooDming's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.2 % Check's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -2 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.970449
Group D TaeJa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % viOLet's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.6 % MajOr's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.5 % Arthur's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -20.1 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 2.39453
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores D > C > B > A
Group A When Heart wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.34 % When Heart loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 4.85 % When Oz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 10.36 % When Oz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 13.37 % When XiGua wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.73 % When XiGua loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.23 % When Pigbaby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.17 % When Pigbaby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.12 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 40.1758
Group B When HyuN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When HyuN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When NesTea wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.54 % When NesTea loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.49 % When Alicia wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.67 % When Alicia loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 10.17 % When Revival wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.1 % When Revival loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.52 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 37.4876
Group C When Bomber wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 14.54 % When Bomber loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 21.21 % When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.26 % When TooDming wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.64 % When TooDming loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.81 % When Check wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 10.75 % When Check loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.9 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 60.2409
Group D When TaeJa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When TaeJa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.97 % When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 8.73 % When MajOr wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.37 % When MajOr loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.27 % When Arthur wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.38 % When Arthur loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 3.82 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 42.5468
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores C > D > A > B
Group A Heart has an overall Aligulac rating of 1652 Oz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1663 XiGua has an overall Aligulac rating of 1476 Pigbaby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1566 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6357
Group B HyuN has an overall Aligulac rating of 2101 NesTea has an overall Aligulac rating of 1523 Alicia has an overall Aligulac rating of 1709 Revival has an overall Aligulac rating of 1656 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6989
Group C Bomber has an overall Aligulac rating of 1885 Polt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1974 TooDming has an overall Aligulac rating of 1552 Check has an overall Aligulac rating of 1695 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7106
Group D TaeJa has an overall Aligulac rating of 2094 viOLet has an overall Aligulac rating of 1794 MajOr has an overall Aligulac rating of 1722 Arthur has an overall Aligulac rating of 1638 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7248
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores D > C > B > A
Group A has 4 4th places and a 3rd place. Group B has 3 3rd places, 1 4th place, and 1 2nd place. Group C has both of the other 2 1st places and 2 2nd places and also a 3rd place. Group D has 3 1st places and 2 2nd places in these 5 rankings.
Group D is our Group of Death barely beating out Group C! Congrats to TaeJa, viOLet, MajOr, and Arthur!
GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 94.45 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.62 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 55.38 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 89.97 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 76.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.38 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.89 %. ~ 44.62 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 47.55 %.
GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 94.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.64 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 55.36 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 90.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 76.79 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.36 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.9 %. ~ 44.64 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 48.12 %.
This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.03 % to ~ 84.37 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 54.02 % to ~ 56.2 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.38 % to ~ 60.39 % This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 74.57 % to ~ 76.51 % This would change StarDust's Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.62 % to ~ 86.12 % This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.94 % to ~ 95.17 % This would change Bomber's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.68 % to ~ 41.8 % This would change Alicia's Blizzcon chances from ~ 28.99 % to ~ 29.78 % This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 12.79 % This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.5 % to ~ 40.17 % This would change Maru's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.11 % to ~ 13.72 % This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.19 % to ~ 14.77 % This would change Rain's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.49 % to ~ 10.92 % This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.75 % to ~ 13.17 % This would change Check's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.56 % to ~ 11.98 % This would change VortiX's Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.78 % to ~ 25.2 % This would change First's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.56 % to ~ 21.92 % This would change PartinG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.81 % to ~ 12.13 % This would change Oz's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.16 % to ~ 5.43 % This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.78 % to ~ 13.06 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.62 % to ~ 8.88 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.48 % to ~ 5.73 % This would change Soulkey's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 8.24 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.74 % to ~ 7.99 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.51 % to ~ 10.75 % This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.57 % to ~ 11.79 % This would change MajOr's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.85 % to ~ 9.03 % This would change Dear's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.74 % to ~ 2.92 % This would change Trap's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.78 % to ~ 4.93 % This would change Arthur's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.8 % to ~ 5.95 % This would change Nerchio's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.75 % to ~ 1.89 % This would change Mvp's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.76 % to ~ 1.89 % This would change DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.21 % to ~ 2.34 % This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.56 % to ~ 4.68 % This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 2.2 % This would change Patience's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.31 % to ~ 5.41 % This would change Bbyong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.48 % to ~ 1.56 % This would change TooDming's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.25 % to ~ 2.33 % This would change Sen's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.56 % to ~ 1.64 % This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.86 % to ~ 1.92 % This would change MaNa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 1.43 % This would change ParalyzE's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 1.31 % This would change Dayshi's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 1.43 % This would change Polt's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.88 % to ~ 99.91 % This would change Zest's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.89 % to ~ 99.92 %
This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.03 % to ~ 80.14 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 54.02 % to ~ 52.26 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.38 % to ~ 56.76 % This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 74.57 % to ~ 73.01 % This would change StarDust's Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.62 % to ~ 83.42 % This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.94 % to ~ 92.94 % This would change Bomber's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.68 % to ~ 39.77 % This would change Alicia's Blizzcon chances from ~ 28.99 % to ~ 28.35 % This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 11.4 % This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.5 % to ~ 38.95 % This would change Maru's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.11 % to ~ 12.63 % This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.19 % to ~ 13.73 % This would change Rain's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.49 % to ~ 10.15 % This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.75 % to ~ 12.41 % This would change Check's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.56 % to ~ 11.23 % This would change VortiX's Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.78 % to ~ 24.45 % This would change First's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.56 % to ~ 21.27 % This would change PartinG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.81 % to ~ 11.55 % This would change Oz's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.16 % to ~ 4.94 % This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.78 % to ~ 12.57 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.62 % to ~ 8.41 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.48 % to ~ 5.28 % This would change Soulkey's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 7.78 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.74 % to ~ 7.55 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.51 % to ~ 10.33 % This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.57 % to ~ 11.38 % This would change MajOr's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.85 % to ~ 8.7 % This would change Dear's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.74 % to ~ 2.6 % This would change Trap's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.78 % to ~ 4.66 % This would change Arthur's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.8 % to ~ 5.69 % This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.56 % to ~ 4.46 % This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.35 % to ~ 1.26 % This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 2.01 % This would change Patience's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.31 % to ~ 5.23 % This would change Bbyong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.48 % to ~ 1.41 % This would change TooDming's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.25 % to ~ 2.18 % This would change Revival's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.88 % to ~ 2.82 % This would change Sen's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.56 % to ~ 1.5 % This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.86 % to ~ 1.81 % This would change MaNa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 1.33 % This would change ParalyzE's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 1.21 % This would change Dayshi's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 1.36 % This would change Polt's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.88 % to ~ 99.86 % This would change Zest's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.89 % to ~ 99.87 %
(basically no one benefits from Classic winning except for Classic)
Classic went up by ~ 23.11 %, going from ~ 76.79 % to ~ 99.9 %
soO went down by ~ 4.23 %, going from ~ 94.81 % to ~ 90.57 % jjakji went down by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 82.03 % to ~ 80.19 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.8 %, going from ~ 54.02 % to ~ 52.22 % sOs went down by ~ 1.6 %, going from ~ 58.38 % to ~ 56.78 % herO went down by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 74.57 % to ~ 73.01 % StarDust went down by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 84.62 % to ~ 83.4 % Life went down by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 93.94 % to ~ 92.89 % Bomber went down by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 40.68 % to ~ 39.78 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 28.99 % to ~ 28.31 % HerO went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 11.38 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 39.5 % to ~ 38.98 %
The year is closing out, and with the last season of WCS starting that means player lists are getting locked and players are fighting for their last chance to win or at least get points from the WCS regionals. Because of this, the last season of Code A and the Challenger Leagues have a special importance, and I have added tournament pages for each of them.
--------UPDATE Sunday, Jul 06 5:15am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Semifinals! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3575 #4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3400 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #6 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 99.92 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #7 KT Zest is at ~ 99.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 96.42 %, Min WCS Points: 2600 #9 StarTale Life is at ~ 92.14 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #10 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 90.37 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #11 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 80.92 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #12Bomber is at ~ 77.77 %, Min WCS Points: 2125 #13 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 70.02 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #14 Jinair sOs is at ~ 55.11 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #15 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 53.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 52.53 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Axiom Heart is at ~ 21.85 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #18 Ai Golden is at ~ 13.8 %, Min WCS Points: 950 #19 Jinair Maru is at ~ 13.28 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #20 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 12.93 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #21 Acer MMA is at ~ 12.57 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #22 Liquid HerO is at ~ 11.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #23 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 10.85 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #24 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #25 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 9.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
Bomber went up by ~ 22.25 %, going from ~ 55.52 % to ~ 77.77 % ForGG went up by ~ 13.92 %, going from ~ 39.18 % to ~ 53.1 % StarDust went up by ~ 12.96 %, going from ~ 83.45 % to ~ 96.42 % Heart went up by ~ 11.74 %, going from ~ 10.11 % to ~ 21.85 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 9.55 %, going from ~ 3.38 % to ~ 12.93 % Golden went up by ~ 6.42 %, going from ~ 7.38 % to ~ 13.8 %
Alicia went down by ~ 19.59 %, going from ~ 28.94 % to ~ 9.35 % VortiX went down by ~ 18.17 %, going from ~ 25.52 % to ~ 7.36 % viOLet went down by ~ 15.41 %, going from ~ 20.85 % to ~ 5.44 % First went down by ~ 15.3 %, going from ~ 21.01 % to ~ 5.7 % Welmu went down by ~ 9.14 %, going from ~ 12.27 % to ~ 3.13 %
The chances of having 1+ foreigners qualify for Blizzcon went from ~ 54.91 % down to ~ 36.48 %, and the chances of having 2+ foreigners qualify went from ~ 12.03 % down to ~ 3.97 %. Snute is the new top foreign hope, with ~ 8.35 % chances, after Vortix fell from ~ 25.52 % down to ~ 7.36 %, and Welmu fell from ~ 12.27 % down to ~ 3.13 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 69.72 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 30.28 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 13.8 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.28 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 37.56 %. ~ 69.72 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.49 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 53.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.57 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 84.22 %. ~ 51.43 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 23.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 96.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.43 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 48.57 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 92.63 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 37.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 26.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.42 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 25.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.13 % to ~ 99.99 % Golden has a ~ 11.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.8 % to ~ 79.76 %
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.8 % to ~ 3.51 % This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.13 % to ~ 44.99 % This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.9 % to ~ 82.84 %
This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.13 % to ~ 24.01 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.8 % to ~ 7.54 % This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.9 % to ~ 84.48 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 52.54 % to ~ 55.83 % This would change CJ herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.02 % to ~ 73.15 %
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.8 % to ~ 6.53 % This would change StarDust's Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.42 % to ~ 92.05 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 52.54 % to ~ 48.98 % This would change CJ herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.02 % to ~ 66.75 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 55.11 % to ~ 51.87 %
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 77.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.22 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.59 %. ~ 42.78 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 49.94 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 21.85 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.78 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 45.66 %. ~ 57.22 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.05 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.93 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.07 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 12.93 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.07 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 31.61 %. ~ 64.93 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.84 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier HyuN has a ~ 45.48 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 26.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.77 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 15.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.85 % to ~ 95.45 % Pigbaby has a ~ 13.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.93 % to ~ 68.97 %
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.85 % to ~ 10.45 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.93 % to ~ 2.88 % This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.91 % to ~ 83.38 % This would change CJ herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.03 % to ~ 72.19 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 55.11 % to ~ 57.18 %
--------UPDATE Sunday, Jul 06 8:55pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU S2 Completed and WCS AM Semifinals Previews! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4100 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075 #4 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 99.95 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 KT Zest is at ~ 99.94 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #9 StarTale Life is at ~ 94.64 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #10 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 92.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #11 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 84.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #12Bomber is at ~ 79.38 %, Min WCS Points: 2125 #13 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 73.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #14 Jinair sOs is at ~ 58.35 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #15 EG Jaedong is at ~ 56.2 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 24.16 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #17 Axiom Heart is at ~ 22.56 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #18 Jinair Maru is at ~ 14.18 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #19 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 13.63 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #20 Acer MMA is at ~ 13.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #21 Liquid HerO is at ~ 12.63 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #22 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 11.28 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #23 Liquid Snute is at ~ 10.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #24 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 10.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 10.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1475
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 79.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.21 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.07 %. ~ 42.79 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 53.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 22.56 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.79 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 47.12 %. ~ 57.21 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.2 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.94 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.06 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 13.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.06 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 33.4 %. ~ 64.94 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.95 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier HyuN has a ~ 45.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 26.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 79.38 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 15.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 22.56 % to ~ 96.88 % Pigbaby has a ~ 13.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.63 % to ~ 72.92 %
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 22.56 % to ~ 11.17 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.64 % to ~ 2.99 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 56.2 % to ~ 58.65 % This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.8 % to ~ 87.14 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.37 % to ~ 60.68 % This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.41 % to ~ 75.69 %
This would change Bomber's Blizzcon chances from ~ 79.38 % to ~ 49.46 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.64 % to ~ 6.13 % This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.37 % to ~ 54.49 %
--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 07 3:25am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and AM Season 2 Completed! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4100 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4075 #4 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 99.78 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 KT Zest is at ~ 99.66 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #9Bomber is at ~ 95.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #10 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 91.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 86.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2450 #12 StarTale Life is at ~ 86.13 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #13 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 84.18 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #14 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 72.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #15 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 63.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 44.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 18.94 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #18 Acer MMA is at ~ 10.87 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #19 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.27 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #20 Liquid HerO is at ~ 8.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #21 Liquid Snute is at ~ 8.64 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #22 Jinair Maru is at ~ 8.46 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #23 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 8.19 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 7.86 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #25 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 7.37 %, Min WCS Points: 1050
Pigbaby went up by ~ 60.33 %, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 63.72 % Bomber went up by ~ 39.75 %, going from ~ 55.62 % to ~ 95.36 % sOs went up by ~ 31.73 %, going from ~ 54.51 % to ~ 86.24 % herO went up by ~ 21.93 %, going from ~ 69.78 % to ~ 91.71 % StarDust went up by ~ 16.53 %, going from ~ 83.47 % to ~ 100 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 2.56 %
Alicia went down by ~ 21.16 %, going from ~ 29.02 % to ~ 7.86 % ForGG went down by ~ 20.07 %, going from ~ 39.01 % to ~ 18.94 % VortiX went down by ~ 18.47 %, going from ~ 25.29 % to ~ 6.81 % First went down by ~ 16.44 %, going from ~ 21.57 % to ~ 5.13 % viOLet went down by ~ 15.55 %, going from ~ 20.44 % to ~ 4.89 % Welmu went down by ~ 9.67 %, going from ~ 12.29 % to ~ 2.62 % jjakji went down by ~ 8.57 %, going from ~ 80.76 % to ~ 72.19 % Jaedong went down by ~ 7.44 %, going from ~ 52.42 % to ~ 44.99 % Heart went down by ~ 6.46 %, going from ~ 10.16 % to ~ 3.7 % soO went down by ~ 6.26 %, going from ~ 90.44 % to ~ 84.18 % Life went down by ~ 6.26 %, going from ~ 92.39 % to ~ 86.13 % Maru went down by ~ 4.84 %, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 8.46 % Golden went down by ~ 3.95 %, going from ~ 7.15 % to ~ 3.2 % PartinG went down by ~ 3.48 %, going from ~ 10.85 % to ~ 7.37 % HerO went down by ~ 2.5 %, going from ~ 11.38 % to ~ 8.88 % MMA went down by ~ 2.43 %, going from ~ 13.29 % to ~ 10.87 % Soulkey went down by ~ 2.24 %, going from ~ 7.45 % to ~ 5.21 % Rain went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 9.49 % to ~ 8.19 % Dear went down by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 6.67 % to ~ 5.5 % Oz went down by ~ 0.84 %, going from ~ 4.87 % to ~ 4.04 % Sen went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 1.5 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 1.97 % to ~ 1.2 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.63 %, going from ~ 9.9 % to ~ 9.27 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 0.83 % Bbyong went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 0.61 % Trap went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 3.79 % to ~ 3.29 %
Pigbaby rising so much so quickly into the top 16 has made it tougher for everyone that is now below him.
With Protoss taking the triple crown, they now hold ~ 50.44 % of the chances, breaking over the 50% mark for the first time in months. Terran is at ~ 26.91 % and Zerg is at ~ 22.65 %.
The hopes of getting at least 1 foreigner into Blizzcon is now at ~ 32.63 %, and getting 2 or more is at ~ 2.77 % chances.
Also I have finally added WCS Point Cutoffs to the front page! This shows the % chances that the 16th ranked player at the end of the year has X many points or less. + Show Spoiler [Point Cutoffs] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.02 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.3 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 4.76 % of the time 2,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 37.95 % of the time 2,625 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 59.14 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.06 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 90.11 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
So this means that ~ 59.14 % of the time, the 16th ranked player ends up with 2,700 or less WCS Points. It also says that 2,150 points is never enough to qualify in these simulations, and 3,550 points is always enough in these simulations. If you go on the website, you can click on "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to see even more details.
Remember the check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
Had to do a bit of a fix to prevent seeded players from getting WCS Points in the KeSPA Cup if they lose in the first round. Liquipedia doesn't have details on this tournament yet but I'm pretty sure that's how it works with the round of 16 having the 8 seeded players and 8 qualified players. This change had some moderate effects on the standings. Also updated Aligulac ratings changed the standings a bit, mostly from Proleague.
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 KT Zest is at ~ 99.81 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 97.47 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #9 StarTale Life is at ~ 90.28 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #10Bomber is at ~ 87.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2375 #11 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 84.27 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #12 Jinair sOs is at ~ 80.93 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #13 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 78.55 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #14 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 74.45 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #15 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 60.92 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 49.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 20.92 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #18 Acer MMA is at ~ 12.05 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #19 Liquid HerO is at ~ 10.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #20 Jinair Maru is at ~ 10.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #21 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.68 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #22 Liquid Snute is at ~ 9.42 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #23 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 8.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 8.81 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #25 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 7.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1050
jjakji went up by ~ 6.36 %, going from ~ 72.19 % to ~ 78.55 % Jaedong went up by ~ 4.92 %, going from ~ 44.95 % to ~ 49.87 % Life went up by ~ 4.17 %, going from ~ 86.11 % to ~ 90.28 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.96 %, going from ~ 18.97 % to ~ 20.92 % Maru went up by ~ 1.91 %, going from ~ 8.47 % to ~ 10.38 % HerO went up by ~ 1.58 %, going from ~ 8.89 % to ~ 10.47 % MMA went up by ~ 1.17 %, going from ~ 10.87 % to ~ 12.05 % Alicia went up by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 7.84 % to ~ 8.81 % Rain went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 8.99 % Snute went up by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 8.63 % to ~ 9.42 % Dear went up by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 5.5 % to ~ 6.23 % Oz went up by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 4.04 % to ~ 4.62 % Soulkey went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 5.24 % to ~ 5.75 %
soO went down by ~ 9.71 %, going from ~ 84.17 % to ~ 74.45 % Bomber went down by ~ 8.12 %, going from ~ 95.36 % to ~ 87.24 % herO went down by ~ 7.44 %, going from ~ 91.71 % to ~ 84.27 % sOs went down by ~ 5.31 %, going from ~ 86.24 % to ~ 80.93 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 2.76 %, going from ~ 63.68 % to ~ 60.92 % Classic went down by ~ 2.32 %, going from ~ 99.79 % to ~ 97.47 %
Also Protoss fell under 50% again, going down to ~ 49.82 %, Terran is at ~ 27.27 %, Zerg is at ~ 22.9 %.
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 KT Zest is at ~ 99.29 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 94.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 91.72 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #10Bomber is at ~ 91.29 %, Min WCS Points: 2375 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 80.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 79.53 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 75.82 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 67.61 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #15 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 52.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 42.11 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Acer MMA is at ~ 33.67 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.04 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #19 Liquid Snute is at ~ 23.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #20 Jinair Maru is at ~ 9.04 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #21 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.01 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #22 Liquid HerO is at ~ 8.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #23 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 7.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #24 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 7.74 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 7.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1475
MMA went up by ~ 21.63 %, going from ~ 12.04 % to ~ 33.67 % Snute went up by ~ 14.46 %, going from ~ 9.43 % to ~ 23.89 % jjakji went up by ~ 13.12 %, going from ~ 78.6 % to ~ 91.72 % ForGG went up by ~ 4.1 %, going from ~ 20.94 % to ~ 25.04 % Bomber went up by ~ 4.07 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 91.29 % viOLet went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 5.18 % to ~ 6.74 % Bunny went up by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 2.81 % to ~ 4.36 % VortiX went up by ~ 0.57 %, going from ~ 7.17 % to ~ 7.74 %
Life went down by ~ 9.53 %, going from ~ 90.27 % to ~ 80.75 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 8.05 %, going from ~ 60.9 % to ~ 52.85 % Jaedong went down by ~ 7.79 %, going from ~ 49.9 % to ~ 42.11 % soO went down by ~ 6.89 %, going from ~ 74.5 % to ~ 67.61 % sOs went down by ~ 5.06 %, going from ~ 80.88 % to ~ 75.82 % herO went down by ~ 4.73 %, going from ~ 84.26 % to ~ 79.53 % Classic went down by ~ 2.76 %, going from ~ 97.47 % to ~ 94.72 % HerO went down by ~ 2.36 %, going from ~ 10.47 % to ~ 8.12 % Maru went down by ~ 1.36 %, going from ~ 10.4 % to ~ 9.04 % Alicia went down by ~ 1.35 %, going from ~ 8.8 % to ~ 7.45 % Rain went down by ~ 1.1 %, going from ~ 8.98 % to ~ 7.88 % Dear went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 6.19 % to ~ 5.19 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 5.75 % to ~ 4.82 % Oz went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 3.84 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.66 %, going from ~ 9.68 % to ~ 9.01 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 7.74 % to ~ 7.18 % Zest went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.81 % to ~ 99.29 % Solar went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 3.5 %
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #7 KT Zest is at ~ 99.35 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #8 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 94.65 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 91.93 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #10Bomber is at ~ 91.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2375 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 82.55 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 77.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 75.03 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 66.54 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #15 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 53.18 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #16 EG Jaedong is at ~ 42.22 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #17 Acer MMA is at ~ 33.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #18 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.14 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #19 Liquid Snute is at ~ 23.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #20 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 9.45 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #21 Jinair Maru is at ~ 8.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #22 Liquid HerO is at ~ 8.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #23 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 7.84 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 7.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #25 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 7.25 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
herO went down by ~ 1.69 %, going from ~ 79.54 % to ~ 77.85 % soO went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 67.61 % to ~ 66.54 % sOs went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 75.77 % to ~ 75.03 % Rain went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 7.87 % to ~ 7.25 % Maru went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 8.99 % to ~ 8.47 %
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.14 % of the time 2,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 2.15 % of the time 2,375 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 35.28 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 55.27 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 72.31 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 85.45 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 96.61 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,600 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
GSL S3 Code A - INnoVation is at ~ 9.45 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.87 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.72 %. ~ 27.13 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.67 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hurricane is at ~ 0.05 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.88 % of the time Hurricane wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 51.12 % of the time Hurricane loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hyvaa is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.08 % of the time hyvaa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 60.92 % of the time hyvaa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ruin is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.17 % of the time Ruin wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 60.83 % of the time Ruin loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.52 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.99 %. ~ 24.48 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TurN is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.57 % of the time TurN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 78.43 % of the time TurN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.91 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 53.09 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Panic is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.99 % of the time Panic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.05 %. ~ 44.01 % of the time Panic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Dark is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.88 % of the time Dark wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.25 %. ~ 56.12 % of the time Dark loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RagnaroK is at ~ 0.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.51 % of the time RagnaroK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.61 %. ~ 50.49 % of the time RagnaroK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Billowy is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.85 % of the time Billowy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 56.15 % of the time Billowy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dear is at ~ 5.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.75 % of the time Dear wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.3 %. ~ 37.25 % of the time Dear loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.99 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Rain is at ~ 7.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.61 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.57 %. ~ 35.39 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hydra is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.37 % of the time Hydra wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.27 %. ~ 55.63 % of the time Hydra loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Impact is at ~ 0.27 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.5 % of the time Impact wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.65 %. ~ 59.5 % of the time Impact loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.52 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 49.48 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - TY is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.88 % of the time TY wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.18 %. ~ 41.12 % of the time TY loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 0.16 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.8 % of the time ByuL wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.26 %. ~ 39.2 % of the time ByuL loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sKyHigh is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 37.29 % of the time sKyHigh wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 62.71 % of the time sKyHigh loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.02 % of the time Shine wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 56.98 % of the time Shine loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Symbol is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.37 % of the time Symbol wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 48.63 % of the time Symbol loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Flash is at ~ 0.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.92 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.34 %. ~ 42.08 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TAiLS is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.01 % of the time TAiLS wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 51.99 % of the time TAiLS loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hush is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.71 % of the time Hush wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 57.28 % of the time Hush loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code A - PartinG is at ~ 6.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.37 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.28 %. ~ 36.63 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sleep is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.24 % of the time Sleep wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 60.76 % of the time Sleep loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Avenge is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.22 % of the time Avenge wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.1 %. ~ 54.78 % of the time Avenge loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sora is at ~ 0.34 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.16 % of the time Sora wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.64 %. ~ 47.84 % of the time Sora loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - RorO is at ~ 0.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.31 % of the time RorO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.42 %. ~ 47.69 % of the time RorO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - aLive is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.85 % of the time aLive wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 64.15 % of the time aLive loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 0.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.79 % of the time Bbyong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.99 %. ~ 50.21 % of the time Bbyong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 3.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.06 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.13 %. ~ 37.94 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.32 %.
GSL S3 Code A sOs has the #1 headband! - Super is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.14 % of the time Super wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.24 %. ~ 58.86 % of the time Super loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 75.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.54 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 82.19 %. ~ 34.46 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 61.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 77.85 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.7 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 84.86 %. ~ 39.3 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 67.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.61 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.13 %. ~ 67.39 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Life is at ~ 82.55 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 69.36 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 88.93 %. ~ 30.64 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 68.11 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.8 % of the time Stats wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 61.2 % of the time Stats loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.15 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 52.85 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.7 % of the time Rogue wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.15 %. ~ 55.3 % of the time Rogue loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - Leenock is at ~ 0.56 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.59 % of the time Leenock wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.9 %. ~ 38.41 % of the time Leenock loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SuperNova is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.43 % of the time SuperNova wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.2 %. ~ 46.57 % of the time SuperNova loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.7 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 55.3 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Terminator is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.28 % of the time Terminator wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 59.72 % of the time Terminator loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code A - YongHwa is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.5 % of the time YongHwa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.23 %. ~ 43.5 % of the time YongHwa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.26 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.62 % of the time Stork wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.47 %. ~ 46.38 % of the time Stork loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FanTaSy is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.24 % of the time FanTaSy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 61.76 % of the time FanTaSy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trust is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.64 % of the time Trust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.12 %. ~ 48.36 % of the time Trust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A INnoVation is at ~ 9.45 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hurricane is at ~ 0.05 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 hyvaa is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Ruin is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 9.51625
Group B DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TurN is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Panic is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 1.54975
Group C Dark is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 RagnaroK is at ~ 0.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Billowy is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Dear is at ~ 5.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 6.006
Group D Rain is at ~ 7.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hydra is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Impact is at ~ 0.27 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Cure is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 7.69865
Group E TY is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ByuL is at ~ 0.16 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 sKyHigh is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Shine is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 0.28315
Group F Symbol is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Flash is at ~ 0.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TAiLS is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hush is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 0.26415
Group G PartinG is at ~ 6.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Sleep is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Avenge is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Sora is at ~ 0.34 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 7.10205
Group H RorO is at ~ 0.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 aLive is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bbyong is at ~ 0.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Trap is at ~ 3.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 4.03795
Group I Super is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 sOs is at ~ 75.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 herO is at ~ 77.85 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Reality is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 153.016
Group J Life is at ~ 82.55 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stats is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bunny is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Rogue is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 82.6539
Group K Leenock is at ~ 0.56 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 SuperNova is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 EffOrt is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Terminator is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 0.682
Group L YongHwa is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stork is at ~ 0.26 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 FanTaSy is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Trust is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 0.46265
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores for the top 4 I > J > A > D
Group A INnoVation's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.45 % Hurricane's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % hyvaa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Ruin's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.454517
Group B DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.34 % TurN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % MyuNgSiK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Panic's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.3504
Group C Dark's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % RagnaroK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Billowy's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Dear's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.35 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.317817
Group D Rain's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.62 % Hydra's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Impact's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Cure's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.682763
Group E TY's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % ByuL's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % sKyHigh's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Shine's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.03718
Group F Symbol's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Flash's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % TAiLS's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Hush's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0259467
Group G PartinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.49 % Sleep's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Avenge's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Sora's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.5205
Group H RorO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % aLive's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Bbyong's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Trap's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.12 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.101613
Group I Super's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % sOs's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.75 % herO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -1.69 % Reality's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 2.46568
Group J Life's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 1.81 % Stats's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Bunny's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Rogue's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.81064
Group K Leenock's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.08 % SuperNova's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % EffOrt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Terminator's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0875567
Group L YongHwa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Stork's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % FanTaSy's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Trust's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0278367
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores for the top 4 I > D > G > F
Group A When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.27 % When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 8.78 % When Hurricane wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When Hurricane loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.05 % When hyvaa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When hyvaa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Ruin wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Ruin loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 12.1914
Group B When DongRaeGu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.48 % When DongRaeGu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.48 % When TurN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When TurN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When MyuNgSiK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When MyuNgSiK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Panic wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When Panic loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 2.02861
Group C When Dark wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Dark loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.11 % When RagnaroK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.3 % When RagnaroK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.3 % When Billowy wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When Billowy loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % When Dear wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.72 % When Dear loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 4.59 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 8.19246
Group D When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.32 % When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.06 % When Hydra wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.15 % When Hydra loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.12 % When Impact wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.38 % When Impact loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.26 % When Cure wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Cure loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 10.3923
Group E When TY wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.07 % When TY loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.1 % When ByuL wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.1 % When ByuL loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.15 % When sKyHigh wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When sKyHigh loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Shine wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When Shine loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.473593
Group F When Symbol wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Symbol loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.19 % When TAiLS wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When TAiLS loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Hush wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Hush loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.466247
Group G When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.58 % When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.19 % When Sleep wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When Sleep loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Avenge wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Avenge loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % When Sora wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.3 % When Sora loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.33 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 10.5363
Group H When RorO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.2 % When RorO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.22 % When aLive wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When aLive loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Bbyong wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.49 % When Bbyong loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.49 % When Trap wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.83 % When Trap loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.99 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 6.22873
Group I When Super wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Super loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.1 % When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.16 % When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 13.63 % When herO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.02 % When herO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 10.84 % When Reality wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.09 % When Reality loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 39.0144
Group J When Life wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.38 % When Life loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 14.44 % When Stats wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Stats loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When Bunny wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Bunny loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Rogue wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.08 % When Rogue loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 21.0672
Group K When Leenock wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.34 % When Leenock loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.54 % When SuperNova wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.09 % When SuperNova loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.11 % When EffOrt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When EffOrt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Terminator wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Terminator loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 1.11857
Group L When YongHwa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.1 % When YongHwa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.13 % When Stork wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.21 % When Stork loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.25 % When FanTaSy wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.02 % When FanTaSy loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Trust wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When Trust loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.843252
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores for the top 4 I > J > A > G
Group A INnoVation has an overall Aligulac rating of 2122 Hurricane has an overall Aligulac rating of 1688 hyvaa has an overall Aligulac rating of 1488 Ruin has an overall Aligulac rating of 1462 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6760
Group B DongRaeGu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1872 TurN has an overall Aligulac rating of 1292 MyuNgSiK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1465 Panic has an overall Aligulac rating of 1568 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6197
Group C Dark has an overall Aligulac rating of 1720 RagnaroK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1792 Billowy has an overall Aligulac rating of 1568 Dear has an overall Aligulac rating of 1872 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6952
Group D Rain has an overall Aligulac rating of 1959 Hydra has an overall Aligulac rating of 1712 Impact has an overall Aligulac rating of 1669 Cure has an overall Aligulac rating of 1730 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7070
Group E TY has an overall Aligulac rating of 1746 ByuL has an overall Aligulac rating of 1752 sKyHigh has an overall Aligulac rating of 1487 Shine has an overall Aligulac rating of 1548 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6533
Group F Symbol has an overall Aligulac rating of 1685 Flash has an overall Aligulac rating of 1822 TAiLS has an overall Aligulac rating of 1491 Hush has an overall Aligulac rating of 1471 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6469
Group G PartinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1996 Sleep has an overall Aligulac rating of 1595 Avenge has an overall Aligulac rating of 1688 Sora has an overall Aligulac rating of 1854 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7133
Group H RorO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1759 aLive has an overall Aligulac rating of 1558 Bbyong has an overall Aligulac rating of 1761 Trap has an overall Aligulac rating of 1835 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6913
Group I Super has an overall Aligulac rating of 1746 sOs has an overall Aligulac rating of 2081 herO has an overall Aligulac rating of 2042 Reality has an overall Aligulac rating of 1721 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7590
Group J Life has an overall Aligulac rating of 1953 Stats has an overall Aligulac rating of 1555 Bunny has an overall Aligulac rating of 1553 Rogue has an overall Aligulac rating of 1587 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6648
Group K Leenock has an overall Aligulac rating of 1842 SuperNova has an overall Aligulac rating of 1768 EffOrt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1604 Terminator has an overall Aligulac rating of 1400 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6614
Group L YongHwa has an overall Aligulac rating of 1722 Stork has an overall Aligulac rating of 1660 FanTaSy has an overall Aligulac rating of 1559 Trust has an overall Aligulac rating of 1693 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6634
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores for the top 4 I > G > D > C
I has 4 1st places J has 2 2nd places G has 1 2nd place, 1 3rd place, and 1 4th place D has 1 2nd place, 1 3rd place, and 1 4th place A has 2 3rd places C has 1 4th place F has 1 4th place
Group I is our Group of Death winning in all 4 of our categories! Congrats to Super, sOs, herO, and Reality! For 2nd place Group of Death it looks like a close battle between Groups J, D, and G, but I'm giving the nod to Group J.
--------UPDATE Saturday, May 31 10:05pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Premier Round of 16 set! The round of 16 groups for WCS EU Premier have been set! Time to do an overview, look at the previews, and do an analysis of the groups to determine the group of death! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3175 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 95.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 88.6 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 83.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #8 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 81.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 71.47 %, Min WCS Points: 1800 #10 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 66.49 %, Min WCS Points: 1475 #11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 65.68 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #12 Liquid Snute is at ~ 50.35 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 47.24 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #14 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 40.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 40.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1750 #16Bomber is at ~ 39.83 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #17 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 36.31 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #18 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 27.84 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #19 Jinair Maru is at ~ 26.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #20 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.74 %, Min WCS Points: 900 #21 mouz VortiX is at ~ 21.77 %, Min WCS Points: 800 #22 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1300 #23 Acer MMA is at ~ 19.07 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #24 NrS Welmu is at ~ 18.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1050 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 15.98 %, Min WCS Points: 525
Snute went down by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 52.19 % to ~ 50.35 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 26.7 % to ~ 25.74 % Harstem went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 4.18 % to ~ 3.45 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 5.38 %
WCS EU S2 Premier - First is at ~ 11.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.59 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.85 %. ~ 37.41 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.81 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.04 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.46 %. ~ 53.96 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 5.62 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 52.63 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.72 %. ~ 47.37 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 1.84 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 38.73 % of the time Grubby wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.18 %. ~ 61.27 % of the time Grubby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.36 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - MC is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.45 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 39.55 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 5.78 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.61 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.66 %. ~ 51.39 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 18.1 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.86 % of the time Welmu wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.35 %. ~ 51.14 % of the time Welmu loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.35 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 4.31 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 42.08 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.83 %. ~ 57.92 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.03 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 25.74 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.8 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.49 %. ~ 44.2 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 21.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.37 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.57 %. ~ 41.63 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 8.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 50.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 54.23 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 66.33 %. ~ 45.77 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 3.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.6 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.17 %. ~ 68.4 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.8 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier - Nerchio is at ~ 5.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.37 % of the time Nerchio wins and their chances go up to ~ 11.63 %. ~ 64.63 % of the time Nerchio loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 99.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.26 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 27.74 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.52 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 1.55 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.74 % of the time LiveZerg wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.27 %. ~ 68.26 % of the time LiveZerg loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 71.47 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.62 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 84.52 %. ~ 39.38 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 51.37 %.
WCS EU S2 Premier San has a ~ 18.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.87 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 10.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 71.47 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 10.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.74 % to ~ 99.99 % MC has a ~ 9.8 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % VortiX has a ~ 9.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 21.77 % to ~ 99.96 % Snute has a ~ 9.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 50.35 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 8.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.85 % to ~ 85.68 % YoDa has a ~ 3.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.78 % to ~ 86.25 % Welmu has a ~ 3.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 18.1 % to ~ 99.99 % Golden has a ~ 3.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.62 % to ~ 89.88 % ToD has a ~ 2.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.31 % to ~ 94.67 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.38 % to ~ 98.51 % MaNa has a ~ 2.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.54 % to ~ 94.62 % Harstem has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.45 % to ~ 87.24 % LiveZerg has a ~ 1.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.55 % to ~ 85.17 % Grubby has a ~ 1.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 93.59 %
Now let's look at some stats to figure out the group of death. We will look at 3 different scores the same way we did the GSL ro16 analysis. WCS EU Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Group A - Grubby has a ~ 1.18 % chance to win WCS EU Season 2. First has a ~ 8.81 % chance Golden has a ~ 3.69 % chance Mana has a ~ 2.27 % chance All these chances added up gives a 15.95 WCS EU Chances Score for Group A
Group B - Welmu has a ~ 3.73 % chance MC has a ~ 9.8 % chance ToD has a ~ 2.47 % chance YoDa has a ~ 3.82 % chance All these chances added up gives a 19.82 WCS EU Chances Score for Group B
Group C - Harstem has a ~ 2.26 % chance Snute has a ~ 9.16 % chance ForGG has a ~ 10.01 % chance VortiX has a ~ 9.57 % chance All these chances added up gives a 31 WCS EU Chances Score for Group C
Group D - LiveZerg has a ~ 1.19 % chance San has a ~ 18.73 % chance Nerchio has a ~ 2.45 % chance StarDust has a ~ 10.87 % chance All these chances added up gives a 33.24 WCS EU Chances Score for Group D
Which means the groups go in this order according to the WCS EU Chances Scores D > C > B > A
Group A - Grubby went up by ~ 0.13 %, from ~ 1.71 % up to ~ 1.84 % First went up by ~ 0.97 %, from ~ 10.88 % up to ~ 11.85 % Golden went up by ~ 0.41 %, from ~ 5.21 % up to ~ 5.62 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.37 %, from ~ 4.17 % up to ~ 4.54 % All these chances added up gives a 23.85 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -1.88 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group A.
Group B - Welmu went up by ~ 0.49 %, from ~ 17.61 % up to ~ 18.1 % MC stayed about the same, over 99.9999%, I'll count him as ~ 99.99 % ToD went down by about ~ 0.07 %, from ~ 4.38 % down to ~ 4.31 % YoDa went up by about ~ 0.12 %, from ~ 5.66 % up to ~ 5.78 % All these chances added up gives a 128.18 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -0.54 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group B.
Group C - Harstem went down by ~ 0.73 %, from ~ 4.18 % down to ~ 3.45 % Snute went down by ~ 1.84 %, from ~ 52.19 % down to ~ 50.35 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.96 %, from ~ 26.7 % down to ~ 25.74 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.18 %, from ~ 21.95 % down to ~ 21.77 % All these chances added up gives a 101.31 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 3.71 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group C.
Group D - LiveZerg went down by ~ 0.15 %, from ~ 1.7 % down to ~ 1.55 % San went up by ~ 0.04 %, from ~ 99.83 % up to ~ 99.87 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.67 %, from ~ 6.05 % down to ~ 5.38 % StarDust went up by ~ 0.57 %, from ~ 70.9 % up to ~ 71.47 % All these chances added up gives a 178.27 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 0.21 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group D.
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order D > B > C > A
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order C > D > B > A
So in 2/3 of our metrics we have Group D being the group of death, and it's 2nd place in the other metric, Group D is our Group of Death! Congrats to LiveZerg, San, Nerchio, and StarDust! Our 2nd place Group of Death is Group C which got huge 1st place in Blizzcon Chances Lost Score, as well as a 2nd and a 3rd placing in our metrics.
Also check out the new up and down arrows next to players' chances on the lists, the top of the page says when it is comparing to, which is the same comparison that Biggest Winners and Biggest Losers use. Mouse over the arrows to see the difference. -----------------------
--------UPDATE Saturday, May 24 4:40am GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and GSL Code S Round of 16! Here's the current top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2950 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.94 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #4 KT Zest is at ~ 99.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2550 #5 StarTale Life is at ~ 97.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2400 #6 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 97.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #7 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 92.41 %, Min WCS Points: 2150 #8 Jinair sOs is at ~ 77.32 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 64.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2050 #10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 59.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1650 #11 EG Jaedong is at ~ 51.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #12 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 44.61 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #13 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 41.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #14Bomber is at ~ 37.6 %, Min WCS Points: 1200 #15 Acer MMA is at ~ 37.59 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #16 SKT T1 PartinG is at ~ 37.49 %, Min WCS Points: 950 #17 Liquid Snute is at ~ 36.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1250 #18 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 34.87 %, Min WCS Points: 925 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 25.55 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #20 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 22.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1400 #21 Jinair Maru is at ~ 17.9 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #22 mouz VortiX is at ~ 17.47 %, Min WCS Points: 650 #23 Ai Patience is at ~ 17.28 %, Min WCS Points: 750 #24 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 16.76 %, Min WCS Points: 450 #25 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 15.76 %, Min WCS Points: 800
First let's look at the biggest winners and losers from adding the KeSPA Cup (after the Code S Ro32 was completed but before the Ro16 groups were set). + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
PartinG went up by ~ 5.9 %, going from ~ 31.93 % to ~ 37.83 % Maru went up by ~ 4.14 %, going from ~ 12.75 % to ~ 16.89 % INnoVation went up by ~ 3.92 %, going from ~ 29.47 % to ~ 33.39 % Soulkey went up by ~ 3.53 %, going from ~ 11.78 % to ~ 15.3 % Solar went up by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 13.7 % to ~ 15.51 % First went up by ~ 1.64 %, going from ~ 6.6 % to ~ 8.24 % Classic went up by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 15.92 % to ~ 17.46 % YoDa went up by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 5.01 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 24.28 % to ~ 25.5 % VortiX went up by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 16.24 % to ~ 17.43 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 3.63 % to ~ 4.79 % Patience went up by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 16.13 % to ~ 17.21 % Snute went up by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 35.85 % to ~ 36.89 % Nerchio went up by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 6.3 % to ~ 7.23 % Stork went up by ~ 0.9 %, going from ~ 3.02 % to ~ 3.91 % Dark went up by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 3.75 % to ~ 4.62 % Harstem went up by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 4.24 % Bbyong went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 2.65 % ToD went up by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 3.53 % to ~ 4.3 % Arthur went up by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 8.48 % to ~ 9.21 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 3.1 % to ~ 3.82 % NesTea went up by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 3.63 % Revival went up by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 14.42 % to ~ 15.1 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 6.43 % to ~ 7.1 % Top went up by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 4.39 % to ~ 4.98 %
sOs went down by ~ 7.91 %, going from ~ 84.96 % to ~ 77.05 % jjakji went down by ~ 6.89 %, going from ~ 71.27 % to ~ 64.39 % StarDust went down by ~ 4.54 %, going from ~ 63.58 % to ~ 59.04 % Jaedong went down by ~ 3.88 %, going from ~ 55.7 % to ~ 51.82 % Polt went down by ~ 3.13 %, going from ~ 95.46 % to ~ 92.33 % Bomber went down by ~ 2.88 %, going from ~ 40.39 % to ~ 37.51 % soO went down by ~ 1.99 %, going from ~ 27.71 % to ~ 25.72 % Rain went down by ~ 1.9 %, going from ~ 48.12 % to ~ 46.22 % Life went down by ~ 1.63 %, going from ~ 99.17 % to ~ 97.54 % herO went down by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 98.4 % to ~ 97.17 % HerO went down by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.04 % TaeJa went down by ~ 0.86 %, going from ~ 42.08 % to ~ 41.22 % MMA went down by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 38.38 % to ~ 37.53 % Sen went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 12.5 % Dear went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 6.65 % to ~ 5.93 % Happy went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 6.16 % to ~ 5.44 % Squirtle went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 1.6 % to ~ 0.96 %
As is normal when adding a new big tournament, the players who have high Aligulac ratings relative to their chances get big boosts to their chances, while players with low Aligulac ratings relative to their chances take some losses.
For the KeSPA Cup's seeds for top 2 in Proleague, I just have it pick 2 from the current top 10 at random, and it does a random selection for the open qualifiers.
KeSPA Cup herO has a ~ 7.69 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.17 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 6.18 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.83 % to ~ 98.8 % San has a ~ 5.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.94 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 5.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.59 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 4.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 3.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 33.39 % to ~ 99.53 % Soulkey has a ~ 3.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.3 % to ~ 77.38 % Rain has a ~ 3.24 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 46.22 % to ~ 99.99 % Maru has a ~ 2.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.89 % to ~ 93.52 % Polt has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 92.33 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.53 % to ~ 99.96 % Life has a ~ 2.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.54 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 2.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.5 % to ~ 98.29 % Snute has a ~ 2.25 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 36.89 % to ~ 99.99 % Bomber has a ~ 2.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.51 % to ~ 99.97 % StarDust has a ~ 2.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 59.04 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 1.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 51.82 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.51 % to ~ 93.75 % TaeJa has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 41.22 % to ~ 99.99 % MC has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.46 % to ~ 97.51 % VortiX has a ~ 1.56 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 95.02 % Bbyong has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.65 % to ~ 47.27 % Flash has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 9.68 % ByuL has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 21.33 % Patience has a ~ 1.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.21 % to ~ 96.61 % RorO has a ~ 1.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 15.06 % TY has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 7.48 % First has a ~ 0.97 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 82.31 % sOs has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 77.05 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 25.72 % to ~ 99.99 % jjakji has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 64.39 % to ~ 100 % Welmu has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.15 % to ~ 99.49 % Nerchio has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.23 % to ~ 90.97 % Dark has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 81.33 % Revival has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.1 % to ~ 99.65 % viOLet has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.1 % to ~ 83.18 % YoDa has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.01 % to ~ 81.6 % Stork has a ~ 0.45 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.91 % to ~ 77.84 % KingKong has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 12.45 % Arthur has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.21 % to ~ 92.72 % Alicia has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.07 % to ~ 99.28 % Happy has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.44 % to ~ 79.85 % Check has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.96 % to ~ 97.19 % NaNiwa has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 8.68 % Dear has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.93 % to ~ 99.91 % Jim has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.1 % to ~ 70.34 % Mvp has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 42.41 % Top has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 77.07 % Sage has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 8.68 % Harstem has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.24 % to ~ 81.23 %
INnoVation went up by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 33.39 % to ~ 34.87 % Soulkey went up by ~ 1.46 %, going from ~ 15.3 % to ~ 16.76 % Maru went up by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 16.89 % to ~ 17.9 % Stork went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 3.91 % to ~ 4.72 % Dark went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 5.34 %
soO went down by ~ 3.5 %, going from ~ 25.72 % to ~ 22.22 % Classic went down by ~ 1.7 %, going from ~ 17.46 % to ~ 15.76 % Rain went down by ~ 1.61 %, going from ~ 46.22 % to ~ 44.61 % Solar went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 15.51 % to ~ 14.97 %
GSL S2 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 37.49 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 59.45 % of the time PartinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 51.52 %. ~ 40.55 % of the time PartinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 22.22 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.33 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.48 %. ~ 64.67 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 10.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 15.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.04 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 29.66 %. ~ 56.96 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 97.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.17 % of the time herO wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.9 %. ~ 37.83 % of the time herO loses and their chances go down to ~ 92.25 %.
GSL S2 Code S Life has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Life is at ~ 97.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 60.38 % of the time Life wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.94 %. ~ 39.62 % of the time Life loses and their chances go down to ~ 94.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rain is at ~ 44.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.35 % of the time Rain wins and their chances go up to ~ 62.05 %. ~ 43.65 % of the time Rain loses and their chances go down to ~ 22.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 2.15 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 31.44 % of the time ParalyzE wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.91 %. ~ 68.56 % of the time ParalyzE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 14.97 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.82 % of the time Solar wins and their chances go up to ~ 24.95 %. ~ 48.18 % of the time Solar loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.22 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Maru is at ~ 17.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.79 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.51 %. ~ 48.21 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dark is at ~ 5.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.24 % of the time Dark wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.21 %. ~ 46.76 % of the time Dark loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 4.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.04 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.63 %. ~ 41.96 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 1.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.93 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.92 %. ~ 63.07 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %.
GSL S2 Code S - Soulkey is at ~ 16.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.09 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.83 %. ~ 42.91 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 34.87 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 63.84 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 47.61 %. ~ 36.16 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 12.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.5 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.37 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 51.63 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 1.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.7 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.26 %. ~ 69.3 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.2 %.
GSL S2 Code S herO has a ~ 13.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.01 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 12.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 34.87 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 11.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 37.49 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 9.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.5 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 9.32 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 44.61 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 8.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.76 % to ~ 100 % Soulkey has a ~ 7.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 16.76 % to ~ 98.8 % Solar has a ~ 6.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.97 % to ~ 99.62 % Classic has a ~ 5.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.76 % to ~ 99.99 % Maru has a ~ 4.71 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.9 % to ~ 99.99 % soO has a ~ 2.88 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 22.22 % to ~ 100 % Dark has a ~ 2.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.34 % to ~ 96.78 % Stork has a ~ 2.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.72 % to ~ 92.07 % ParalyzE has a ~ 1.15 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.15 % to ~ 95.97 % Shine has a ~ 0.97 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.44 % to ~ 88.85 % TRUE has a ~ 0.7 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 94.6 %
Now let's try to figure out which is the group of death according to the stats!
Group A - Parting has a ~ 11.03 % chance to win Code S Classic has a ~ 5.15 % chance herO has a ~ 13.72 % chance soO has a ~ 2.88 % chance All these chances added up gives a 32.78 Code S Chances Score
Group B - Rain has a ~ 9.32 % chance Solar has a ~ 6.6 % chance Life has a ~ 8.83 % chance ParalyzE has a ~ 1.15 % chance All these chances added up gives a 25.9 Code S Chances Score
Group C - Maru has a ~ 4.71 % chance Dark has a ~ 2.77 % chance TRUE has a ~ 0.7 % chance Stork has a ~ 2.75 % chance All these chances added up gives a 10.93 Code S Chances Score
Group D - Soulkey has a ~ 7.42 % chance Shine has a ~ 0.97 % chance Zest has a ~ 9.32 % chance Innovation has a ~ 12.7 % chance All these chances added up gives a 30.41 Code S Chances Score
Which means the groups go in this order according to the Code S Chances Scores A > D > B > C
Group A - Parting went down by ~ 0.34 %, from ~ 37.83 % down to ~ 37.49 % Classic went down by ~ 1.7 %, from ~ 17.46 % down to ~ 15.76 % herO went down by ~ 0.16 %, from ~ 97.17 % down to ~ 97.01 % soO went down by ~ 3.5 %, from ~ 25.72 % down to ~ 22.22 % All these chances added up gives a 172.48 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 5.7 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group B - Rain went down by ~ 1.61 %, from ~ 46.22 % down to ~ 44.61 % Solar went down by ~ 0.55 %, from ~ 15.51 % down to ~ 14.96 % Life went up by ~ 0.22 %, from ~ 97.54 % down to ~ 97.76 % ParalyzE went down by ~ 0.21 %, from ~ 2.36 % down to ~ 2.15 % All these chances added up gives a 159.48 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a 2.15 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group C - Maru went up by ~ 1.01 %, from ~ 16.89 % up to ~ 17.9 % Dark went up by ~ 0.72 %, from ~ 4.62 % up to ~ 5.34 % TRUE went up by ~ 0.12 %, from ~ 1.07 % up to ~ 1.19 % Stork went up by ~ 0.81 %, from ~ 3.91 % up to ~ 4.72 % All these chances added up gives a 29.15 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.66 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
Group D - Soulkey went up by ~ 1.46 %, from ~ 15.3 % up to ~ 16.76 % Shine stayed about the same at ~ 1.44 % Zest went down by ~ 0.09 %, from ~ 99.59 % down to ~ 99.5 % Innovation went up by ~ 1.48 %, from ~ 33.39 % up to ~ 34.87 % All these chances added up gives a 152.57 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.85 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score.
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order A > D > B > C
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order A > B > C > D
So in all 3 of the metrics we have Group A being the group of death! Congrats to Parting, Classic, herO, and soO! 2nd place goes to Group D, 3rd place to Group B, and 4th place goes to Group C.
--------UPDATE Monday, Jun 23 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475 #3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3325 #4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100 #5 KT Zest is at ~ 99.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2800 #7 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 94.45 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 #8 StarTale Life is at ~ 93.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 83.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2350 #10 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 80.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #11 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 76.53 %, Min WCS Points: 1900 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 73.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 57.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 EG Jaedong is at ~ 53.23 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #15Bomber is at ~ 41.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 39.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1325 #17 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 24.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #18First is at ~ 21.15 %, Min WCS Points: 850 #19 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1425 #20 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.4 %, Min WCS Points: 1175 #21 Acer MMA is at ~ 14.63 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #22viOLet is at ~ 13.91 %, Min WCS Points: 875 #23 NrS Welmu is at ~ 13.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1350 #24 Jinair Maru is at ~ 12.91 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #25 Wayi Check is at ~ 12.57 %, Min WCS Points: 700
WCS AM S2 Premier - Heart is at ~ 6.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.77 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.76 %. ~ 47.23 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 20.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.35 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 30.45 %. ~ 43.65 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 6.73 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.44 % of the time XiGua wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.22 %. ~ 58.56 % of the time XiGua loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 2.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.44 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.58 %. ~ 50.56 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.29 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.27 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 28.73 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 1.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.94 % of the time NesTea wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.35 %. ~ 63.06 % of the time NesTea loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 15.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.26 % of the time Alicia wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 25.06 %. ~ 48.74 % of the time Alicia loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 8.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.53 % of the time Revival wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.51 %. ~ 59.47 % of the time Revival loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.89 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 41.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.33 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 55.76 %. ~ 40.67 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 20.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 99.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.03 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 34.97 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.6 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 2.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.3 % of the time TooDming wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.11 %. ~ 66.7 % of the time TooDming loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.35 % of the time Check wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 23.32 %. ~ 57.65 % of the time Check loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.68 %.
WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.66 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 29.34 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - viOLet is at ~ 13.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.32 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.88 %. ~ 50.68 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.18 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 9.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.23 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 6.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.08 % of the time Arthur wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.67 %. ~ 65.92 % of the time Arthur loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.47 %.
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. I did this before but I have to redo it now since the groups were redrawn. This time we will be looking at 5 different scores instead of just the normal 3. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Affects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Heart has a ~ 3.79 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Oz has a ~ 4.31 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier XiGua has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Pigbaby has a ~ 2.35 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 11.587
Group B HyuN has a ~ 20.49 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier NesTea has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Alicia has a ~ 5.06 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Revival has a ~ 3.02 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.0157
Group C Bomber has a ~ 8.85 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Polt has a ~ 12.95 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier TooDming has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Check has a ~ 3.52 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 26.7719
Group D TaeJa has a ~ 18.85 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier viOLet has a ~ 5.86 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier MajOr has a ~ 4.27 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Arthur has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 31.6254
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores D > B > C > A
Group A Heart is at ~ 6.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Oz is at ~ 20.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 XiGua is at ~ 1.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Pigbaby is at ~ 2.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 30.4117
Group B HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 NesTea is at ~ 1.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Alicia is at ~ 15.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Revival is at ~ 8.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 125.616
Group C Bomber is at ~ 41.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Polt is at ~ 99.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TooDming is at ~ 2.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Check is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 156.13
Group D TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 viOLet is at ~ 13.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MajOr is at ~ 9.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Arthur is at ~ 6.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 130.049
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores C > D > B > A
Group A Heart's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.36 % Oz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 2.04 % XiGua's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.17 % Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.28 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -2.86117
Group B HyuN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % NesTea's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.0 % Alicia's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.32 % Revival's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.6 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.385503
Group C Bomber's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.24 % Polt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % TooDming's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.2 % Check's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -2 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.970449
Group D TaeJa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % viOLet's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.6 % MajOr's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.5 % Arthur's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -20.1 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 2.39453
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores D > C > B > A
Group A When Heart wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.34 % When Heart loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 4.85 % When Oz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 10.36 % When Oz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 13.37 % When XiGua wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.73 % When XiGua loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.23 % When Pigbaby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.17 % When Pigbaby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.12 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 40.1758
Group B When HyuN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When HyuN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When NesTea wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.54 % When NesTea loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.49 % When Alicia wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.67 % When Alicia loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 10.17 % When Revival wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.1 % When Revival loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.52 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 37.4876
Group C When Bomber wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 14.54 % When Bomber loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 21.21 % When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 % When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.26 % When TooDming wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.64 % When TooDming loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.81 % When Check wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 10.75 % When Check loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.9 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 60.2409
Group D When TaeJa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When TaeJa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.97 % When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 8.73 % When MajOr wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.37 % When MajOr loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.27 % When Arthur wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.38 % When Arthur loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 3.82 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 42.5468
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores C > D > A > B
Group A Heart has an overall Aligulac rating of 1652 Oz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1663 XiGua has an overall Aligulac rating of 1476 Pigbaby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1566 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6357
Group B HyuN has an overall Aligulac rating of 2101 NesTea has an overall Aligulac rating of 1523 Alicia has an overall Aligulac rating of 1709 Revival has an overall Aligulac rating of 1656 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6989
Group C Bomber has an overall Aligulac rating of 1885 Polt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1974 TooDming has an overall Aligulac rating of 1552 Check has an overall Aligulac rating of 1695 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7106
Group D TaeJa has an overall Aligulac rating of 2094 viOLet has an overall Aligulac rating of 1794 MajOr has an overall Aligulac rating of 1722 Arthur has an overall Aligulac rating of 1638 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7248
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores D > C > B > A
Group A has 4 4th places and a 3rd place. Group B has 3 3rd places, 1 4th place, and 1 2nd place. Group C has both of the other 2 1st places and 2 2nd places and also a 3rd place. Group D has 3 1st places and 2 2nd places in these 5 rankings.
Group D is our Group of Death barely beating out Group C! Congrats to TaeJa, viOLet, MajOr, and Arthur!
GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 94.45 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.62 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 55.38 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 89.97 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 76.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.38 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.89 %. ~ 44.62 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 47.55 %.
WCS Season 3, the last season, is about last chances. While we have 10 players already over 90%, for a lot of players, their only hope of qualifying for Blizzcon is in winning their WCS region. Will someone make a heroic run to Blizzcon with a last minute win? Or will we see the fringe players like MMA, Jaedong, and Snute seal the deal with a few more good placings? If there is a last minute heroic run then you won't want to miss it. That's why I bring you the latest feature on WCS Predictor.
Must win matches.
When WCS Predictor determines that a player must win a match, it will highlight this on the Upcoming Match preview, and put a red border around it. Here's an example of the BB Code it outputs for TL, make sure to check it out on the website too.
GSL S3 Code A - INnoVation is at ~ 9.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.58 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.08 %. ~ 27.42 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hurricane is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.57 % of the time Hurricane wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.14 %. ~ 49.43 % of the time Hurricane loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hyvaa is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.83 % of the time hyvaa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 61.17 % of the time hyvaa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ruin is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.01 % of the time Ruin wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 61.99 % of the time Ruin loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
On top of this, I've also made a special page where you can watch these could-be heroes with upcoming must-win matches. You'll want to bookmark this one! http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=mustwins
Currently the system determines that they "must" win if their Blizzcon chances are at least 5%, and if winning the match brings them up to at least 7% Blizzcon chances, and if losing the match brings them down below 2% Blizzcon chances. I will probably need to tweak these numbers. Feel free to leave comments on how you think this can be tweaked, or just vote in this poll.
Poll: Must Win formula?
It's too strict, DongRaeGu's match should count (1)
50%
It should be relative (1)
50%
It's good as it is (0)
0%
It's way too strict, even Flash's match should count (0)
0%
It's too loose, it should only count if losing would bring them under 1% Blizzcon chances (0)
0%
2 total votes
Your vote: Must Win formula?
(Vote): It's good as it is (Vote): It's too strict, DongRaeGu's match should count (Vote): It's way too strict, even Flash's match should count (Vote): It's too loose, it should only count if losing would bring them under 1% Blizzcon chances (Vote): It should be relative
What I mean by relative in the poll is like a player with 1% chances would need to fall below 0.5% when they lose in order to count, but a player with 15% chances would only need to fall below 2% when losing for it to count.
I propose a slightly different approach: Biggest swing matches. A list sorted by (%ifwin - %iflose), so e.g. Innovation 13.08 - 0.67 = 12.41 will still be high on the list. But I think it's also important to highlight cases like Life: 88.95 - 67.9 = 21.05% swing on one Code A match! Sure he's not eliminated, but IMO still very important and should be highlighted somehow.
ETA: With this approach there is no real need for an artificial cutoff point. Players like DongRaeGu will just be low on the list. If he makes it into Code S, this metric will naturally increase. Also later as we get into CodeS this metric will have players that are almost locked for Blizzcon still on the list, but lower.
On July 11 2014 07:51 KillerDucky wrote: I propose a slightly different approach: Biggest swing matches. A list sorted by (%ifwin - %iflose), so e.g. Innovation 13.08 - 0.67 = 12.41 will still be high on the list. But I think it's also important to highlight cases like Life: 88.95 - 67.9 = 21.05% swing on one Code A match! Sure he's not eliminated, but IMO still very important and should be highlighted somehow.
ETA: With this approach there is no real need for an artificial cutoff point. Players like DongRaeGu will just be low on the list. If he makes it into Code S, this metric will naturally increase. Also later as we get into CodeS this metric will have players that are almost locked for Blizzcon still on the list, but lower.
I currently have it where important matches get a red border (same highlight that must-win matches get now) and semi-important matches get a pink border, so I guess it's similar, importance being the average effect it has on the players. I probably will change it so that if it's important for even just 1 of the players then it gets highlighted like you suggest, it does sound better rather than using the average importance.
I'll have to think about whether I would rather have a page for the big swing matches or for the must-win matches. I feel like must-win tells more of a story though and is more straight-forward for someone to read. The border highlighting for swing matches might be enough by itself, although I don't have such an indication in the BB code for upcoming matches, I should add something for that for sure.
--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 14 5:35am GMT (GMT+00:00) Red Bull Atlanta Completed and Many Changes! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600 #6 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #7Bomber is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3125 #8 KT Zest is at ~ 99.66 %, Min WCS Points: 2900 #9 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 93.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #10 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 90.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 80.96 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 76.74 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 72.82 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #14 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 64.48 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #15 EG Jaedong is at ~ 55.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #16 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 50.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #17 Acer MMA is at ~ 26.02 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #18 Liquid Snute is at ~ 22.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1375 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 22.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #20 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 12.03 %, Min WCS Points: 1025 #21 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 7.7 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #22 Ai Patience is at ~ 7.42 %, Min WCS Points: 1000 #23viOLet is at ~ 7.41 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #24 Jinair Maru is at ~ 7.28 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #25 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 7.11 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
Jaedong went up by ~ 14.64 %, going from ~ 40.37 % to ~ 55.01 % Bomber went up by ~ 4.75 %, going from ~ 95.24 % to ~ 99.99 % Patience went up by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 6.22 % to ~ 7.42 %
MMA went down by ~ 3.6 %, going from ~ 29.62 % to ~ 26.02 % ForGG went down by ~ 2.36 %, going from ~ 24.85 % to ~ 22.5 % soO went down by ~ 2.07 %, going from ~ 66.55 % to ~ 64.48 % Life went down by ~ 2.04 %, going from ~ 82.99 % to ~ 80.96 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.98 %, going from ~ 52.78 % to ~ 50.8 % Snute went down by ~ 1.82 %, going from ~ 24.34 % to ~ 22.52 % Solar went down by ~ 1.66 %, going from ~ 7.1 % to ~ 5.44 % sOs went down by ~ 1.17 %, going from ~ 73.99 % to ~ 72.82 % herO went down by ~ 1.14 %, going from ~ 77.88 % to ~ 76.74 % jjakji went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 92.04 % to ~ 90.99 % Classic went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 94.83 % to ~ 93.8 %
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.1 % of the time 2,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.64 % of the time 2,375 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 30.95 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.44 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.01 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 81.82 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 94.34 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,675 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
I've also made some changes to the website and the simulator. First change is I have added must win matches highlights. A must win match is a match where a player's Blizzcon Chances would fall extremely low if they were to lose the match, and they must also have a decent Blizzcon Chance to start with. Must win matches are highlighted with a bright red border around them, and text like this :kr: INnoVation must win this!.
There is also a page that shows all the must win upcoming matches, and lists the players that must win as well as some other info about them. You can find a link to the must win matches page under the players table on the front page, or just click here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=mustwins
To go along with must win matches, I have tweaked the display of upcoming matches that have big effects. These important matches are highlighted with a pink or red border, and have text like this This match is important for sOs! This match is important for herO!
On the players tables and tooltips I have replaced Mode WCS Points with Median WCS Points. I think now it's becoming clear that Median WCS Points are more valuable.
I have greatly reduced redundant events. This means that where before you would see an event for [winning Code A], [winning Code S], and [winning Code A AND winning Code S], now it only shows the separate 2 events. Since the player cannot win Code S without winning Code A, the grouped together event is redundant.
I tweaked the way events are scored (for the sorting) so that the likeliness of the event has less of an impact on its score. This means that a rare 2nd place that helps the player a lot will probably show up higher than an expected 16th place with a small change to their Blizzcon Chances.
I also greatly increased the number of events that are counted for and displayed for each player. Currently there are 58 for Jaedong and 50 for Maru! This is a huge increase over before where it was maybe 10 to 15 for each player.
And lastly I added "Or Events". An Or Event is when 2 different events of the same tournament and player are combined as in "Jaedong gets 4th or 8th in WCS AM S3 Premier". These will only happen with adjacent placings, so you will not see "1st or 16th". I might make it so Or Events could be 3 placings combined, like "Maru gets 4th, 8th, or 16th in GSL".
Also try out the Search filter on events tables. The Search box is at the top of the table. Try typing in player names, tournament names, placings like "1st" or "4th". Also there are some special keywords like "or", "simple", "multiple", "other" (meaning something another player does affects my chances), "single", "double", and "triple".
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Monday, Jul 14 9:55pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM Shenzhen Open Bracket, TWOP, and WCS Qualifiers Updated! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances. + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
#1MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4225 #2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4025 #3 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3850 #4 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3825 #5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600 #6 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3275 #7Bomber is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3125 #8 KT Zest is at ~ 99.84 %, Min WCS Points: 3025 #9 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 92.34 %, Min WCS Points: 2425 #10 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 91.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2650 #11 StarTale Life is at ~ 86.59 %, Min WCS Points: 2625 #12 EG Jaedong is at ~ 77.3 %, Min WCS Points: 2175 #13 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 73.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2300 #14 Jinair sOs is at ~ 69.47 %, Min WCS Points: 2200 #15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 60.19 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 #16 Jinair Pigbaby is at ~ 46.67 %, Min WCS Points: 2100 #17 Acer MMA is at ~ 24.83 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #18 Liquid Snute is at ~ 24.01 %, Min WCS Points: 1500 #19 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 19.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1575 #20 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 12.38 %, Min WCS Points: 1150 #21 Liquid HerO is at ~ 8.99 %, Min WCS Points: 1675 #22 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 7.14 %, Min WCS Points: 1100 #23viOLet is at ~ 6.67 %, Min WCS Points: 1550 #24 Jinair Maru is at ~ 6.6 %, Min WCS Points: 1450 #25 SKT T1 Rain is at ~ 6.51 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
Jaedong went up by ~ 22.3 %, going from ~ 54.99 % to ~ 77.3 % Life went up by ~ 5.63 %, going from ~ 80.96 % to ~ 86.59 % HerO went up by ~ 2.05 %, going from ~ 6.95 % to ~ 8.99 % Snute went up by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 22.53 % to ~ 24.01 % jjakji went up by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 91.01 % to ~ 92.34 % TRUE went up by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 2.31 % Leenock went up by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 1.6 %
soO went down by ~ 4.26 %, going from ~ 64.45 % to ~ 60.19 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 4.17 %, going from ~ 50.84 % to ~ 46.67 % herO went down by ~ 3.38 %, going from ~ 76.74 % to ~ 73.36 % sOs went down by ~ 3.34 %, going from ~ 72.81 % to ~ 69.47 % ForGG went down by ~ 2.59 %, going from ~ 22.48 % to ~ 19.89 % Classic went down by ~ 2.2 %, going from ~ 93.79 % to ~ 91.59 % Patience went down by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 7.42 % to ~ 6.08 % Check went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 0.54 % MMA went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 26.03 % to ~ 24.83 % First went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 6.57 % to ~ 5.39 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.86 %, going from ~ 4.09 % to ~ 3.24 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 7.41 % to ~ 6.67 % Maru went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 7.28 % to ~ 6.6 % Rain went down by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 7.11 % to ~ 6.51 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 4.71 % to ~ 4.13 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.57 %, going from ~ 7.71 % to ~ 7.14 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.53 %, going from ~ 6.88 % to ~ 6.35 % Dear went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 5.8 % to ~ 5.27 %
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.08 % of the time 2,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.18 % of the time 2,375 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 23.14 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.7 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.32 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 80.81 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.8 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
IEM Shenzhen Open Bracket jjakji has a ~ 62.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.34 % to ~ 95.85 % Life has a ~ 58.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 86.59 % to ~ 93.68 % HerO has a ~ 47.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.99 % to ~ 12.13 % Revival has a ~ 40.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.02 % to ~ 2.34 % Sen has a ~ 33.63 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.06 % to ~ 1.32 % Daisy has a ~ 33.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % TRUE has a ~ 29.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 3.21 % Seed has a ~ 27.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Check has a ~ 25.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 0.92 % NesTea has a ~ 16.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.11 % Has has a ~ 13.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Neige has a ~ 4.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bistork has a ~ 3.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % :: Phoenix has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Vaisravana has a ~ 0.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
IEM Shenzhen INnoVation has a ~ 15.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.38 % to ~ 19.87 % TaeJa has a ~ 13.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 11.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 10.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.84 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 7.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.83 % to ~ 57.48 % Jaedong has a ~ 6.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.3 % to ~ 99.25 % Snute has a ~ 6.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.01 % to ~ 53.93 % Solar has a ~ 6.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.71 % to ~ 9.91 % jjakji has a ~ 6.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.34 % to ~ 99.99 % Life has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 86.59 % to ~ 99.99 % Jim has a ~ 2.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.4 % to ~ 1.83 % Stork has a ~ 2.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.11 % HerO has a ~ 1.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.99 % to ~ 41.9 % puCK has a ~ 1.18 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.52 % to ~ 1.34 % TRUE has a ~ 0.71 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 13.22 % Revival has a ~ 0.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.02 % to ~ 8.89 % Seed has a ~ 0.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.1 % Daisy has a ~ 0.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.09 % Sen has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.06 % to ~ 4.75 % Illusion has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.25 % Check has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 2.4 % NesTea has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.35 %
2014 TWOP HyuN has a ~ 24.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 15.92 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.29 % to ~ 99.11 % TaeJa has a ~ 13.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 11.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 7.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.6 % to ~ 3.55 % TRUE has a ~ 6.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 6.47 % Pet has a ~ 6.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 0.19 % Sen has a ~ 6.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.06 % to ~ 2.08 % Has has a ~ 3.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Slam has a ~ 2.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 0.14 % Ian has a ~ 1.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.06 % DeParture has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
GSL S3 Code A - PartinG is at ~ 5.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.41 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.47 %. ~ 38.59 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.38 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sleep is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.48 % of the time Sleep wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 54.52 % of the time Sleep loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Avenge is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.03 % of the time Avenge wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 56.97 % of the time Avenge loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sora is at ~ 0.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.08 % of the time Sora wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.49 %. ~ 49.92 % of the time Sora loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code A - DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.24 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.33 %. ~ 24.76 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TurN is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.22 % of the time TurN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 78.78 % of the time TurN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.7 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 52.3 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Panic is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.84 % of the time Panic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 44.16 % of the time Panic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.15 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 3.23 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 36.65 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.95 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 64.61 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 78.36 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.48 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Here are the biggest winners and losers over the past 4 days. Keep in mind this also includes WCS AM and EU qualifiers, the addition of Red Bull Washington with its seeds, and Code A matches. + Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] +
sOs went up by ~ 13.95 %, going from ~ 69.4 % to ~ 83.35 % Scarlett went up by ~ 10.97 %, going from ~ 0.91 % to ~ 11.88 % PartinG went up by ~ 7.34 %, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 13.31 % Jaedong went up by ~ 5.73 %, going from ~ 77.29 % to ~ 83.02 % Snute went up by ~ 4.68 %, going from ~ 24.02 % to ~ 28.7 % Dear went up by ~ 3.22 %, going from ~ 5.27 % to ~ 8.49 % Rain went up by ~ 3.13 %, going from ~ 6.51 % to ~ 9.64 % TRUE went up by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 3.41 % Trap went up by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 2.91 % to ~ 3.98 % First went up by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 5.4 % to ~ 6.08 %
MMA went down by ~ 13.41 %, going from ~ 24.86 % to ~ 11.45 % ForGG went down by ~ 6.41 %, going from ~ 19.89 % to ~ 13.47 % soO went down by ~ 5.14 %, going from ~ 60.2 % to ~ 55.07 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 4.57 %, going from ~ 46.73 % to ~ 42.16 % herO went down by ~ 3.48 %, going from ~ 73.43 % to ~ 69.95 % Classic went down by ~ 2.68 %, going from ~ 91.57 % to ~ 88.89 % HerO went down by ~ 2.66 %, going from ~ 8.97 % to ~ 6.31 % Life went down by ~ 2.1 %, going from ~ 86.58 % to ~ 84.48 % jjakji went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 92.33 % to ~ 90.71 % Patience went down by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 6.09 % to ~ 4.6 % Soulkey went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 4.13 % to ~ 3.05 % Maru went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 6.61 % to ~ 5.68 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 3.24 % to ~ 2.32 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 6.7 % to ~ 5.92 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 6.34 % to ~ 5.64 % Revival went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 1.45 %
IEM Shenzhen - TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.6 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 45.4 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 99.93 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.4 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 54.6 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.88 %.
IEM Shenzhen - Jaedong is at ~ 83.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.75 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 89.25 %. ~ 48.25 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 76.34 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 28.7 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.25 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 35.43 %. ~ 51.75 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 22.42 %.
IEM Shenzhen - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.97 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.03 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 0.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.03 % of the time Jim wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.78 %. ~ 55.97 % of the time Jim loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.36 %.
IEM Shenzhen - INnoVation is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.28 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 14.18 %. ~ 40.72 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 5.74 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.72 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.61 %. ~ 59.28 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.14 %.
IEM Shenzhen INnoVation has a ~ 21.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.57 % to ~ 17.94 % TaeJa has a ~ 18.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 14.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 12.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.93 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 9.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 28.7 % to ~ 53.81 % Jaedong has a ~ 9.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 83.02 % to ~ 98.76 % Solar has a ~ 8.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.74 % to ~ 8.8 % Jim has a ~ 5.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 1.79 %
DreamHack Valencia - First is at ~ 6.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.59 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.79 %. ~ 44.41 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.18 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Starbuck is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.41 % of the time Starbuck wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 55.59 % of the time Starbuck loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Valencia - Stephano is at ~ 0.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.04 % of the time Stephano wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.31 %. ~ 47.96 % of the time Stephano loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.11 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sacsri is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.96 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.16 %. ~ 52.04 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.05 %.
DreamHack Valencia - StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.01 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 39.99 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 0.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.99 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.45 %. ~ 60.01 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.65 %.
DreamHack Valencia - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 84.09 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 15.91 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revolver is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 15.91 % of the time Revolver wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 84.09 % of the time Revolver loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Valencia - Golden is at ~ 3.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.92 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.58 %. ~ 48.08 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Nerchio is at ~ 1.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.08 % of the time Nerchio wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.54 %. ~ 51.92 % of the time Nerchio loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.74 %.
DreamHack Valencia - Leenock is at ~ 1.8 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.99 % of the time Leenock wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.08 %. ~ 32.01 % of the time Leenock loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Majestic is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.01 % of the time Majestic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 67.99 % of the time Majestic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Valencia - VortiX is at ~ 7.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.79 % of the time VortiX wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.31 %. ~ 38.21 % of the time VortiX loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 6.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 1.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.21 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.77 %. ~ 61.79 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.37 %.
DreamHack Valencia - MC is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.24 % of the time MC wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 48.76 % of the time MC loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.76 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 51.24 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %.
DreamHack Valencia HyuN has a ~ 18.9 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 10.89 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MC has a ~ 9.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 8.96 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.8 % to ~ 3.54 % VortiX has a ~ 8.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.52 % to ~ 14.17 % First has a ~ 7.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.08 % to ~ 9.45 % Bomber has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Golden has a ~ 5.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.15 % to ~ 6.02 % Starbuck has a ~ 4.63 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Nerchio has a ~ 4.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 2.56 % Stephano has a ~ 3.96 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.22 % to ~ 0.87 % Sacsri has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 0.64 % YoDa has a ~ 3.48 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.74 % MaNa has a ~ 2.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.53 % to ~ 3.07 % Majestic has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.21 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 3.5 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 40.71 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 53.27 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.97 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 82.54 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 93.55 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
WCS AM S3 Challenger - HuK is at ~ 0.89 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.94 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.25 %. ~ 29.06 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - phog is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 29.06 % of the time phog wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 70.94 % of the time phog loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - CranK is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.62 % of the time CranK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.16 %. ~ 24.38 % of the time CranK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shana is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 24.38 % of the time Shana wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 75.62 % of the time Shana loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - hendralisk is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.89 % of the time hendralisk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 28.11 % of the time hendralisk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ViBE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.11 % of the time ViBE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 71.89 % of the time ViBE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Suppy is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.48 % of the time Suppy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 44.52 % of the time Suppy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Guitarcheese is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.52 % of the time Guitarcheese wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 55.48 % of the time Guitarcheese loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Bails is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.71 % of the time Bails wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 47.29 % of the time Bails loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.29 % of the time neeb wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 52.71 % of the time neeb loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Ryung is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.59 % of the time Ryung wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 45.41 % of the time Ryung loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.41 % of the time MacSed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 54.59 % of the time MacSed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Arium is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.26 % of the time Arium wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 42.74 % of the time Arium loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Courage is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.74 % of the time Courage wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.26 % of the time Courage loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - MaSa is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.6 % of the time MaSa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.19 %. ~ 24.4 % of the time MaSa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Slam is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 24.4 % of the time Slam wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 75.6 % of the time Slam loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - KingKong is at ~ 0.47 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.13 % of the time KingKong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.88 %. ~ 46.87 % of the time KingKong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 80.56 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.87 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 89.27 %. ~ 53.13 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 72.87 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Seed is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.26 % of the time Seed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.14 %. ~ 39.74 % of the time Seed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Top is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.74 % of the time Top wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 60.26 % of the time Top loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - qxc is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.17 % of the time qxc wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 49.83 % of the time qxc loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iaguz is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.83 % of the time iaguz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 50.17 % of the time iaguz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Illusion is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.91 % of the time Illusion wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 25.09 % of the time Illusion loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Gemini is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.09 % of the time Gemini wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 74.91 % of the time Gemini loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - HerO is at ~ 6.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.81 % of the time HerO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.96 %. ~ 33.19 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ian is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.19 % of the time Ian wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 66.81 % of the time Ian loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Jim is at ~ 0.61 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.72 % of the time Jim wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.76 %. ~ 19.28 % of the time Jim loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Believe is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.28 % of the time Believe wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 80.72 % of the time Believe loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - puCK is at ~ 0.29 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.86 % of the time puCK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.56 %. ~ 48.14 % of the time puCK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.14 % of the time Balloon wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 51.86 % of the time Balloon loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Challenger - Scarlett is at ~ 12.19 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.14 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.45 %. ~ 28.86 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.71 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sen is at ~ 0.31 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.86 % of the time Sen wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.02 %. ~ 71.14 % of the time Sen loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
WCS EU S3 Challenger starts in I'll post the previews for EU Challenger when we get closer to it, but you can see them now on the website.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.23 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 3.52 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 49.4 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 69.57 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 84.49 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 95.57 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
WCS AM S3 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 78.97 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 21.03 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 0.43 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.59 % of the time Arthur wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.82 %. ~ 48.41 % of the time Arthur loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.39 % of the time neeb wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 58.61 % of the time neeb loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Guitarcheese is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.04 % of the time Guitarcheese wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 71.96 % of the time Guitarcheese loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Alicia is at ~ 5.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.02 % of the time Alicia wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.06 %. ~ 38.98 % of the time Alicia loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.47 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 0.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.11 % of the time Jim wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.23 %. ~ 41.89 % of the time Jim loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iaguz is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.04 % of the time iaguz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 53.96 % of the time iaguz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.83 % of the time NesTea wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 65.17 % of the time NesTea loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.8 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 29.2 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 89.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.85 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 95.61 %. ~ 40.15 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 79.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 1.79 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.96 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.25 %. ~ 60.04 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MacSed is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 29.38 % of the time MacSed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 70.62 % of the time MacSed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Pigbaby is at ~ 45.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.02 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 54.01 %. ~ 29.98 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 25.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 0.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.82 % of the time Check wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.66 %. ~ 38.18 % of the time Check loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.59 % of the time Illusion wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.06 %. ~ 53.41 % of the time Illusion loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shana is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.57 % of the time Shana wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 78.43 % of the time Shana loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 6.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.1 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.28 %. ~ 29.9 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.6 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 1.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.36 % of the time Revival wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.96 %. ~ 45.64 % of the time Revival loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 1.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.93 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.65 %. ~ 48.07 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arium is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 23.61 % of the time Arium wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 76.39 % of the time Arium loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Scarlett is at ~ 16.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 69.74 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.37 %. ~ 30.26 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 2.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.08 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.27 %. ~ 50.92 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Seed is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.64 % of the time Seed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.33 %. ~ 55.36 % of the time Seed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.54 % of the time TooDming wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.97 %. ~ 63.46 % of the time TooDming loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 77.38 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 22.62 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HerO is at ~ 9.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.3 % of the time HerO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.96 %. ~ 46.7 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.25 % of the time XiGua wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.26 %. ~ 63.75 % of the time XiGua loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.08 % of the time hendralisk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 66.92 % of the time hendralisk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.3 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 26.7 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 2.6 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.52 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.2 %. ~ 38.48 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 0.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.96 % of the time puCK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.35 %. ~ 63.04 % of the time puCK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Slam is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.23 % of the time Slam wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.29 %. ~ 71.77 % of the time Slam loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier TaeJa has a ~ 15.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 14.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 10.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 9.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 16.21 % to ~ 99.39 % Bomber has a ~ 7.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 6.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.23 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 3.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 99.99 % Alicia has a ~ 3.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.71 % to ~ 99.99 % Pigbaby has a ~ 3.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 45.54 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 3.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.6 % to ~ 78.69 % HerO has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.4 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 2.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 97.11 % Jim has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.72 % to ~ 29.74 % Check has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.41 % to ~ 20.62 % Revival has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.63 % to ~ 96.97 % HuK has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 91.44 % Seed has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 10.17 % Oz has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.79 % to ~ 99.96 % iaguz has a ~ 1.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 3.14 % Arthur has a ~ 0.93 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.43 % to ~ 43.88 % TooDming has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 80.34 % hendralisk has a ~ 0.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 4.83 % puCK has a ~ 0.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 87.62 % XiGua has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 18.19 % NesTea has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 8.34 % MacSed has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 6.4 % Illusion has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 9.84 % neeb has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 10.95 % Slam has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 31.16 % Guitarcheese has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.32 %
WCS AM S3 Premier Oz would gain ~ 98.16 % if they win, with a ~ 1.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.79 % to ~ 99.96 % Revival would gain ~ 95.33 % if they win, with a ~ 1.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.63 % to ~ 96.97 % Heart would gain ~ 94.48 % if they win, with a ~ 2.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 97.11 % Alicia would gain ~ 94.28 % if they win, with a ~ 3.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.71 % to ~ 99.99 % viOLet would gain ~ 93.31 % if they win, with a ~ 3.98 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.68 % to ~ 99.99 % HerO would gain ~ 90.6 % if they win, with a ~ 2.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.4 % to ~ 100 % HuK would gain ~ 90.05 % if they win, with a ~ 1.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 91.44 % puCK would gain ~ 87.12 % if they win, with a ~ 0.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 87.62 % Scarlett would gain ~ 83.18 % if they win, with a ~ 9.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 16.21 % to ~ 99.39 % TooDming would gain ~ 79.61 % if they win, with a ~ 0.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 80.34 % MajOr would gain ~ 76.09 % if they win, with a ~ 3.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.6 % to ~ 78.69 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 54.46 % if they win, with a ~ 3.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 45.54 % to ~ 100 % Arthur would gain ~ 43.46 % if they win, with a ~ 0.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.43 % to ~ 43.88 % Slam would gain ~ 31.08 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 31.16 % Jim would gain ~ 29.02 % if they win, with a ~ 2.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.72 % to ~ 29.74 % Check would gain ~ 20.21 % if they win, with a ~ 1.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.41 % to ~ 20.62 % XiGua would gain ~ 18.1 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 18.19 % neeb would gain ~ 10.92 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 10.95 % Jaedong would gain ~ 10.77 % if they win, with a ~ 6.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 89.23 % to ~ 100 % Seed would gain ~ 10.02 % if they win, with a ~ 1.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 10.17 % Illusion would gain ~ 9.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 9.84 % NesTea would gain ~ 8.3 % if they win, with a ~ 0.44 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 8.34 % MacSed would gain ~ 6.38 % if they win, with a ~ 0.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 6.4 % hendralisk would gain ~ 4.8 % if they win, with a ~ 0.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 4.83 % iaguz would gain ~ 3.1 % if they win, with a ~ 1.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 3.14 % Guitarcheese would gain ~ 1.32 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.32 % Bomber would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 7.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 14.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A HyuN has a ~ 14.77 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Arthur has a ~ 0.93 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Guitarcheese has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier neeb has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 16.1452
Group B NesTea has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Alicia has a ~ 3.87 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Jim has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier iaguz has a ~ 1.2 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 7.76324
Group C Polt has a ~ 10.17 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Jaedong has a ~ 6.2 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Oz has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier MacSed has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 17.9905
Group D Illusion has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Check has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Pigbaby has a ~ 3.45 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Shana has a ~ 0 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 5.58316
Group E viOLet has a ~ 3.98 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Revival has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HuK has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Arium has a ~ 0 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 6.85745
Group F Seed has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Scarlett has a ~ 9.86 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Heart has a ~ 2.38 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier TooDming has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 14.4796
Group G TaeJa has a ~ 15.87 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HerO has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier XiGua has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier hendralisk has a ~ 0.6 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 19.8413
Group H Bomber has a ~ 7.39 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier MajOr has a ~ 3.09 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier puCK has a ~ 0.55 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Slam has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 11.284
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores G > C > A > F
Group A HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Arthur is at ~ 0.43 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Guitarcheese is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 neeb is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 100.457
Group B NesTea is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Alicia is at ~ 5.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Jim is at ~ 0.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 iaguz is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 6.5072
Group C Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Jaedong is at ~ 89.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Oz is at ~ 1.79 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MacSed is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 191.05
Group D Illusion is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Check is at ~ 0.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Pigbaby is at ~ 45.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Shana is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 45.9772
Group E viOLet is at ~ 6.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Revival is at ~ 1.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HuK is at ~ 1.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Arium is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 9.70695
Group F Seed is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Scarlett is at ~ 16.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Heart is at ~ 2.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TooDming is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 19.7139
Group G TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HerO is at ~ 9.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 XiGua is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 hendralisk is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 109.521
Group H Bomber is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MajOr is at ~ 2.6 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 puCK is at ~ 0.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Slam is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.187
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores C > G > H > A
Group A HyuN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Arthur's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Guitarcheese's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % neeb's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0135645
Group B NesTea's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Alicia's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Jim's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.05 % iaguz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.05522
Group C Polt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Jaedong's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.48 % Oz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.47 % MacSed's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.952842
Group D Illusion's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Check's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.04 % Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 3.25 % Shana's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -3.29698
Group E viOLet's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.77 % Revival's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.04 % HuK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.1 % Arium's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.911692
Group F Seed's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Scarlett's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.54 % Heart's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.59 % TooDming's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.24 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.295862
Group G TaeJa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % HerO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.17 % XiGua's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % hendralisk's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.199336
Group H Bomber's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % MajOr's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.07 % puCK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.06 % Slam's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.150787
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores C > F > G > H
Group A When HyuN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When HyuN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Arthur wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.4 % When Arthur loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.42 % When Guitarcheese wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Guitarcheese loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When neeb wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.04 % When neeb loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 0.897795
Group B When NesTea wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.07 % When NesTea loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % When Alicia wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.35 % When Alicia loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.24 % When Jim wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.51 % When Jim loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.71 % When iaguz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When iaguz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 10.0006
Group C When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Jaedong wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.38 % When Jaedong loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.51 % When Oz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.46 % When Oz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.63 % When MacSed wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When MacSed loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 20.0758
Group D When Illusion wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.03 % When Illusion loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When Check wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.25 % When Check loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.4 % When Pigbaby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.46 % When Pigbaby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 19.77 % When Shana wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Shana loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 28.9445
Group E When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.6 % When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.08 % When Revival wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.33 % When Revival loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.58 % When HuK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.26 % When HuK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.36 % When Arium wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Arium loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 14.2191
Group F When Seed wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.18 % When Seed loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.15 % When Scarlett wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.16 % When Scarlett loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 14.2 % When Heart wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.65 % When Heart loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.55 % When TooDming wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.24 % When TooDming loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.71 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 27.8425
Group G When TaeJa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When TaeJa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When HerO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.57 % When HerO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.5 % When XiGua wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.17 % When XiGua loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.09 % When hendralisk wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When hendralisk loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 14.4165
Group H When Bomber wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Bomber loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When MajOr wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.6 % When MajOr loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.56 % When puCK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.85 % When puCK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.5 % When Slam wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.21 % When Slam loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.08 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 5.80037
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores D > F > C > G
Group A HyuN has an overall Aligulac rating of 2102 Arthur has an overall Aligulac rating of 1517 Guitarcheese has an overall Aligulac rating of 1399 neeb has an overall Aligulac rating of 1372 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6390
Group B NesTea has an overall Aligulac rating of 1486 Alicia has an overall Aligulac rating of 1767 Jim has an overall Aligulac rating of 1669 iaguz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1594 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6516
Group C Polt has an overall Aligulac rating of 2016 Jaedong has an overall Aligulac rating of 1914 Oz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1609 MacSed has an overall Aligulac rating of 1471 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7010
Group D Illusion has an overall Aligulac rating of 1372 Check has an overall Aligulac rating of 1644 Pigbaby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1716 Shana has an overall Aligulac rating of 1151 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 5883
Group E viOLet has an overall Aligulac rating of 1775 Revival has an overall Aligulac rating of 1625 HuK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1591 Arium has an overall Aligulac rating of 1210 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6201
Group F Seed has an overall Aligulac rating of 1622 Scarlett has an overall Aligulac rating of 2020 Heart has an overall Aligulac rating of 1711 TooDming has an overall Aligulac rating of 1592 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6945
Group G TaeJa has an overall Aligulac rating of 2132 HerO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1730 XiGua has an overall Aligulac rating of 1508 hendralisk has an overall Aligulac rating of 1534 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6904
Group H Bomber has an overall Aligulac rating of 1910 MajOr has an overall Aligulac rating of 1732 puCK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1482 Slam has an overall Aligulac rating of 1434 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6558
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores C > F > G > H
Group A has a 3rd and a 4th place Group B has no top 4 places Group C has three 1sts, one 2nd, and one 3rd place Group D has a 1st place Group E has no top 4 places Group F has three 2nds, and a 4th place Group G has a 1st, a 2nd, two 3rds, and a 4th place Group H has a 3rd and two 4th places
Group C is our Group of Death! Congrats to Polt, Jaedong, Oz, and MacSed! Group G wins the 2nd place Group of Death with TaeJa, HerO, XiGua, and hendralisk.
~ 0 % of the time 2,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.22 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 4.07 % of the time 2,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.27 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.34 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 66.85 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 82.09 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 93.17 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
GSL S3 Code S sOs has the #1 headband! Classic has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #1 headband! - sOs is at ~ 89.8 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.05 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 93.47 %. ~ 27.95 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 80.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 89.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.44 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 95.21 %. ~ 37.56 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 80.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.12 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.06 %. ~ 64.88 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.39 % of the time Shine wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 69.61 % of the time Shine loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 14.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.58 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 18.35 %. ~ 25.42 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ParalyzE is at ~ 0.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.95 % of the time ParalyzE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.97 %. ~ 48.05 % of the time ParalyzE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.02 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.15 %. ~ 54.98 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.45 % of the time MyuNgSiK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 71.55 % of the time MyuNgSiK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Maru is at ~ 6.37 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.15 % of the time Maru wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.78 %. ~ 37.85 % of the time Maru loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 5.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.01 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.46 %. ~ 40.99 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.95 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.95 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.18 %. ~ 57.05 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hush is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.89 % of the time Hush wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 64.11 % of the time Hush loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Soulkey is at ~ 3.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.49 % of the time Soulkey wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.69 %. ~ 34.51 % of the time Soulkey loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bbyong is at ~ 0.87 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.98 % of the time Bbyong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.44 %. ~ 40.02 % of the time Bbyong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.36 % of the time Stats wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.28 %. ~ 53.64 % of the time Stats loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Terminator is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.17 % of the time Terminator wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 71.83 % of the time Terminator loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Zest is at ~ 99.92 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.26 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 33.74 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.8 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rain is at ~ 10.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.56 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.08 %. ~ 38.44 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hurricane is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.8 % of the time Hurricane wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.27 %. ~ 60.2 % of the time Hurricane loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.38 % of the time Rogue wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.19 %. ~ 67.62 % of the time Rogue loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.37 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.19 %. ~ 43.63 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 54.9 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.34 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 67.37 %. ~ 46.66 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 40.65 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trust is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.83 % of the time Trust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.15 %. ~ 52.17 % of the time Trust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.45 % of the time Stork wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.52 %. ~ 57.55 % of the time Stork loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S - PartinG is at ~ 12.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.74 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 19.6 %. ~ 38.26 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dear is at ~ 7.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.2 % of the time Dear wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.51 %. ~ 46.8 % of the time Dear loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TY is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.33 % of the time TY wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.3 %. ~ 56.67 % of the time TY loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 2.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.73 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.4 %. ~ 58.27 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.49 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Solar is at ~ 10.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.58 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.07 %. ~ 36.42 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Flash is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.38 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.48 %. ~ 51.62 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dark is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.41 % of the time Dark wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.32 %. ~ 54.59 % of the time Dark loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Avenge is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.63 % of the time Avenge wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.17 %. ~ 57.37 % of the time Avenge loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S INnoVation has a ~ 10.82 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.01 % to ~ 99.84 % sOs has a ~ 10.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.8 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 7.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.62 % to ~ 99.95 % PartinG has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.81 % to ~ 98.78 % Rain has a ~ 7.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.38 % to ~ 99.97 % Soulkey has a ~ 4.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.1 % to ~ 56.7 % Dear has a ~ 4.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.72 % to ~ 99.99 % Classic has a ~ 4.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.62 % to ~ 100 % Maru has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.37 % to ~ 99.98 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 3.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.25 % to ~ 36.37 % Trap has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 99.41 % soO has a ~ 2.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 54.9 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 2.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 9.25 % Bbyong has a ~ 2.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 34.15 % Hurricane has a ~ 1.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 5.94 % Avenge has a ~ 1.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 4.16 % Stats has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 7.67 % TRUE has a ~ 1.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 99.68 % TY has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 8.25 % Trust has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 4.94 % Reality has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 5.87 % Cure has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 5.69 % ParalyzE has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 41.84 % Dark has a ~ 1.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 13.38 % Stork has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 21.28 % EffOrt has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 3.45 % Rogue has a ~ 0.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 13.97 % Shine has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 6.45 % Hush has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.6 % MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 3.48 % Terminator has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.17 %
GSL S3 Code S TRUE would gain ~ 96.72 % if they win, with a ~ 1.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.96 % to ~ 99.68 % Maru would gain ~ 93.61 % if they win, with a ~ 4.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.37 % to ~ 99.98 % Trap would gain ~ 93.44 % if they win, with a ~ 2.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 99.41 % Dear would gain ~ 92.27 % if they win, with a ~ 4.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.72 % to ~ 99.99 % Rain would gain ~ 89.6 % if they win, with a ~ 7.03 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.38 % to ~ 99.97 % Solar would gain ~ 89.33 % if they win, with a ~ 7.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.62 % to ~ 99.95 % PartinG would gain ~ 85.97 % if they win, with a ~ 7.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.81 % to ~ 98.78 % INnoVation would gain ~ 85.83 % if they win, with a ~ 10.82 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.01 % to ~ 99.84 % Soulkey would gain ~ 53.6 % if they win, with a ~ 4.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.1 % to ~ 56.7 % soO would gain ~ 45.1 % if they win, with a ~ 2.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 54.9 % to ~ 100 % ParalyzE would gain ~ 41.33 % if they win, with a ~ 1.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 41.84 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 35.13 % if they win, with a ~ 3.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.25 % to ~ 36.37 % Bbyong would gain ~ 33.28 % if they win, with a ~ 2.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.87 % to ~ 34.15 % Stork would gain ~ 21.06 % if they win, with a ~ 0.98 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 21.28 % Rogue would gain ~ 13.91 % if they win, with a ~ 0.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 13.97 % Dark would gain ~ 13.23 % if they win, with a ~ 1.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 13.38 % Classic would gain ~ 10.38 % if they win, with a ~ 4.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 89.62 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 10.2 % if they win, with a ~ 10.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 89.8 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 9.02 % if they win, with a ~ 2.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 9.25 % TY would gain ~ 8.12 % if they win, with a ~ 1.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 8.25 % Stats would gain ~ 7.53 % if they win, with a ~ 1.62 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 7.67 % Shine would gain ~ 6.43 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 6.45 % Hurricane would gain ~ 5.83 % if they win, with a ~ 1.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 5.94 % Reality would gain ~ 5.79 % if they win, with a ~ 1.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 5.87 % Cure would gain ~ 5.63 % if they win, with a ~ 1.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 5.69 % Trust would gain ~ 4.87 % if they win, with a ~ 1.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 4.94 % Avenge would gain ~ 4.09 % if they win, with a ~ 1.66 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 4.16 % MyuNgSiK would gain ~ 3.47 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 3.48 % EffOrt would gain ~ 3.43 % if they win, with a ~ 0.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 3.45 % Hush would gain ~ 1.59 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.6 % Terminator would gain ~ 1.17 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.17 % Zest would gain ~ 0.08 % if they win, with a ~ 7.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A sOs has a ~ 10.33 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S EffOrt has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Classic has a ~ 4.45 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Shine has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 15.7284
Group B INnoVation has a ~ 10.84 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S ParalyzE has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Cure has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S MyuNgSiK has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 13.2346
Group C Maru has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Trap has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Reality has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Hush has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 8.48762
Group D Soulkey has a ~ 4.99 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Bbyong has a ~ 2.32 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Terminator has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Stats has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 9.04097
Group E Rain has a ~ 7.04 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Hurricane has a ~ 1.74 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Zest has a ~ 7.97 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Rogue has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 17.1567
Group F DongRaeGu has a ~ 3.15 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S soO has a ~ 2.56 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Stork has a ~ 0.98 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Trust has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 8.04137
Group G PartinG has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S TY has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S TRUE has a ~ 1.58 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Dear has a ~ 4.73 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 15.5115
Group H Flash has a ~ 2.36 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Dark has a ~ 1.04 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Avenge has a ~ 1.66 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Solar has a ~ 7.75 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 12.7989
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores E > A > G > B
Group A sOs is at ~ 89.79 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 EffOrt is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Classic is at ~ 89.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Shine is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 179.466
Group B INnoVation is at ~ 14.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ParalyzE is at ~ 0.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Cure is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MyuNgSiK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 14.6106
Group C Maru is at ~ 6.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Trap is at ~ 5.98 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Reality is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hush is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 12.4336
Group D Soulkey is at ~ 3.09 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bbyong is at ~ 0.87 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Terminator is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stats is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 4.08969
Group E Rain is at ~ 10.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Hurricane is at ~ 0.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Zest is at ~ 99.92 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Rogue is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 110.467
Group F DongRaeGu is at ~ 1.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 soO is at ~ 54.89 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stork is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Trust is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 56.4315
Group G PartinG is at ~ 12.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TY is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TRUE is at ~ 2.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Dear is at ~ 7.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 23.6284
Group H Flash is at ~ 0.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Dark is at ~ 0.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Avenge is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Solar is at ~ 10.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 11.0828
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores A > E > F > G
Group A sOs's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.82 % EffOrt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Classic's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.45 % Shine's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.26601
Group B INnoVation's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 1.57 % ParalyzE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.03 % Cure's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % MyuNgSiK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.59313
Group C Maru's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.44 % Trap's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.35 % Reality's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Hush's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.779078
Group D Soulkey's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.26 % Bbyong's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.12 % Terminator's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Stats's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.36173
Group E Rain's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.28 % Hurricane's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Zest's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Rogue's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.316672
Group F DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.06 % soO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.09 % Stork's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Trust's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.0582876
Group G PartinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.54 % TY's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % TRUE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.48 % Dear's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.89 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 1.91867
Group H Flash's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Dark's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Avenge's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Solar's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.22 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.251547
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores G > E > H > F
Group A When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.68 % When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.48 % When EffOrt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.04 % When EffOrt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % When Classic wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.59 % When Classic loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.29 % When Shine wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When Shine loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 28.1888
Group B When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.35 % When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 12.75 % When ParalyzE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.46 % When ParalyzE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.5 % When Cure wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.08 % When Cure loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % When MyuNgSiK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When MyuNgSiK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 18.2219
Group C When Maru wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.42 % When Maru loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.62 % When Trap wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.49 % When Trap loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.02 % When Reality wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.1 % When Reality loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.08 % When Hush wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Hush loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 17.7308
Group D When Soulkey wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.59 % When Soulkey loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 3.02 % When Bbyong wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.57 % When Bbyong loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.85 % When Terminator wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Terminator loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Stats wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.15 % When Stats loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.13 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 6.3069
Group E When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.7 % When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.13 % When Hurricane wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.16 % When Hurricane loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.11 % When Zest wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When Zest loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.12 % When Rogue wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.12 % When Rogue loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 15.4746
Group F When DongRaeGu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.94 % When DongRaeGu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.22 % When soO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 12.48 % When soO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 14.25 % When Stork wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.3 % When Stork loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.22 % When Trust wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.08 % When Trust loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 29.5619
Group G When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.79 % When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 10.96 % When TY wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.17 % When TY loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.13 % When TRUE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.45 % When TRUE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.47 % When Dear wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.8 % When Dear loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.6 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 36.3615
Group H When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.25 % When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.23 % When Dark wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.17 % When Dark loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.14 % When Avenge wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.1 % When Avenge loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % When Solar wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.46 % When Solar loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.53 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 15.961
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores G > F > A > B
Group A sOs has an overall Aligulac rating of 2067 EffOrt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1652 Classic has an overall Aligulac rating of 1895 Shine has an overall Aligulac rating of 1585 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7199
Group B INnoVation has an overall Aligulac rating of 2105 ParalyzE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1657 Cure has an overall Aligulac rating of 1762 MyuNgSiK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1432 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6956
Group C Maru has an overall Aligulac rating of 1930 Trap has an overall Aligulac rating of 1828 Reality has an overall Aligulac rating of 1748 Hush has an overall Aligulac rating of 1484 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6990
Group D Soulkey has an overall Aligulac rating of 1931 Bbyong has an overall Aligulac rating of 1787 Terminator has an overall Aligulac rating of 1445 Stats has an overall Aligulac rating of 1684 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6847
Group E Rain has an overall Aligulac rating of 2022 Hurricane has an overall Aligulac rating of 1787 Zest has an overall Aligulac rating of 1986 Rogue has an overall Aligulac rating of 1587 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7382
Group F DongRaeGu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1865 soO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1842 Stork has an overall Aligulac rating of 1657 Trust has an overall Aligulac rating of 1713 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7077
Group G PartinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 2019 TY has an overall Aligulac rating of 1786 TRUE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1788 Dear has an overall Aligulac rating of 1956 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7549
Group H Flash has an overall Aligulac rating of 1843 Dark has an overall Aligulac rating of 1729 Avenge has an overall Aligulac rating of 1750 Solar has an overall Aligulac rating of 2030 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7352
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores G > E > H > A
Group A has one 1st place, one 2nd place, one 3rd place, and one 4th place Group B has two 4th places Group C has no top 4 placings Group D has no top 4 placings Group E has one 1st place, and three 2nd places Group F has one 2nd place, one 3rd place, and one 4th place Group G has three 1st places, one 3rd place, and one 4th place Group H has two 3rd places
Group G is our Group of Death! Congrats to Parting, TY, TRUE, and Dear! Group E wins the 2nd place Group of Death with Rain, Hurricane, Zest, and Rogue.
What do you think?
Poll: Hardest group?
Group A (Classic, EffOrt, Shine, sOs) (29)
7%
Group B (Paralyze, Cure, MyuNgSiK, INnoVation) (3)
1%
Group C (Maru, Hush, Reality, Trap) (4)
1%
Group D (Soulkey, Terminator, Stats, Bbyong) (22)
6%
Group E (Zest, Hurricane, Rogue, Rain) (49)
12%
Group F (soO, Trust, DongRaeGu, Stork) (23)
6%
Group G (TRUE, TY, Dear, PartinG) (254)
64%
Group H (Solar, Avenge, Flash, Dark) (11)
3%
395 total votes
Your vote: Hardest group?
(Vote): Group A (Classic, EffOrt, Shine, sOs) (Vote): Group B (Paralyze, Cure, MyuNgSiK, INnoVation) (Vote): Group C (Maru, Hush, Reality, Trap) (Vote): Group D (Soulkey, Terminator, Stats, Bbyong) (Vote): Group E (Zest, Hurricane, Rogue, Rain) (Vote): Group F (soO, Trust, DongRaeGu, Stork) (Vote): Group G (TRUE, TY, Dear, PartinG) (Vote): Group H (Solar, Avenge, Flash, Dark)
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
Tonight's GSL group has the #1 AND the #2 headband, we might see the first ever #1 vs #2 headband match!
Starts in This match is important for Classic! sOs, Classic, EffOrt, Shine in GSL S3 Code S sOs has the #1 headband! Classic has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #1 headband! - sOs is at ~ 94.18 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.08 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 96.46 %. ~ 27.92 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 88.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 87.85 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.43 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 94.22 %. ~ 37.57 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 77.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.11 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.05 %. ~ 64.89 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.38 % of the time Shine wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 69.62 % of the time Shine loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So at the beginning of the year sOs had the #1 headband and Jaedong had the #2 headband. Jaedong's first WCS matches were at ASUS ROG Winter, where he defended the #2 headband against GunGFuBanDa, elfi, and Liquid Hero. But then Life beat Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then San beat Life to take the #2 headband. From there San won the tournament and still has the #2 headband. So now we have sOs still with the #1 headband, and San with the #2 headband with 2 defenses (StarDust and Dear). The only way for sOs to lose his #1 headband is if the player with the #2 headband beats him in a WCS Tournament. So if San keeps defending and holds on to his #2 headband, and then he beats sOs at IEM Cologne, then San will take the #1 headband and sOs will get the #2 headband.
--------UPDATE Wednesday, Aug 06 5:35pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU Ro32 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
~ 0 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.17 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 2.75 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 45.85 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.35 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 69.84 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 82.27 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 94.07 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Scarlett went up by ~ 7.21 %, going from ~ 13.01 % to ~ 20.22 % Bunny went up by ~ 6.89 %, going from ~ 6.87 % to ~ 13.77 % sOs went up by ~ 6.58 %, going from ~ 89.83 % to ~ 96.41 % Jaedong went up by ~ 6.2 %, going from ~ 88.58 % to ~ 94.78 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 5.86 %, going from ~ 44.26 % to ~ 50.12 % MajOr went up by ~ 1.87 %, going from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 4.6 % YoDa went up by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 1.57 % to ~ 2.68 % First went up by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 5.92 % to ~ 6.78 % Jim went up by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 1.33 % to ~ 1.83 %
Classic went down by ~ 15.22 %, going from ~ 89.52 % to ~ 74.3 % Life went down by ~ 2.56 %, going from ~ 72.98 % to ~ 70.42 % Snute went down by ~ 2.48 %, going from ~ 23.94 % to ~ 21.46 % MMA went down by ~ 2.45 %, going from ~ 14.41 % to ~ 11.96 % soO went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 54.47 % to ~ 52.73 % herO went down by ~ 1.72 %, going from ~ 56.04 % to ~ 54.32 % Oz went down by ~ 1.44 %, going from ~ 1.57 % to ~ 0.13 % HerO went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 9.03 % to ~ 7.64 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 6.8 % to ~ 5.86 % Patience went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 6.09 % to ~ 5.21 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 12.87 % to ~ 12.22 % Solar went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 9.88 % to ~ 9.34 %
Also notice that we had some headband trades in GSL, with Effort taking the #2 headband from Classic, and then taking the #1 headband from sOs in the first ever #1 vs #2 match! Currently Effort holds the #1 headband, and sOs holds the #2 headband, hopefully we will see another #1 vs #2 match this year.
WCS EU S3 Premier - Golden is at ~ 3.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.85 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.4 %. ~ 42.15 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 1.47 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.61 % of the time Dayshi wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.54 %. ~ 42.39 % of the time Dayshi loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Nerchio is at ~ 0.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.77 % of the time Nerchio wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.32 %. ~ 46.23 % of the time Nerchio loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - KrasS is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.77 % of the time KrasS wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 69.23 % of the time KrasS loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.11 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.89 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 21.46 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.25 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 31.42 %. ~ 38.75 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 5.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.75 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 9.76 %. ~ 47.25 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.89 % of the time Miniraser wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 78.11 % of the time Miniraser loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - First is at ~ 6.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.07 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 11.19 %. ~ 40.93 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.41 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 11.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.22 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 21.09 %. ~ 48.78 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - YoDa is at ~ 2.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.27 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.47 %. ~ 51.73 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ShoWTimE is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.44 % of the time ShoWTimE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.54 %. ~ 58.56 % of the time ShoWTimE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - Welmu is at ~ 2.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.5 % of the time Welmu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.31 %. ~ 43.5 % of the time Welmu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 1.26 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.89 % of the time TLO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.33 %. ~ 47.11 % of the time TLO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.61 % of the time uThermal wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.13 %. ~ 49.39 % of the time uThermal loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.99 % of the time LiveZerg wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.1 %. ~ 60.01 % of the time LiveZerg loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - jjakji is at ~ 96.27 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.26 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.81 %. ~ 32.74 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 91.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 6.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.14 % of the time VortiX wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.75 %. ~ 36.86 % of the time VortiX loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Kas is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.35 % of the time Kas wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 63.65 % of the time Kas loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.26 % of the time Harstem wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.38 %. ~ 66.74 % of the time Harstem loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - Bunny is at ~ 13.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.1 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 18.28 %. ~ 26.9 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 68.09 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 31.91 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MorroW is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.65 % of the time MorroW wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 66.35 % of the time MorroW loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.15 % of the time ToD wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 74.85 % of the time ToD loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 10.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.44 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.4 %. ~ 33.56 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bly is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.76 % of the time Bly wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 54.24 % of the time Bly loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0.88 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.83 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.95 %. ~ 55.17 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BlinG is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.97 % of the time BlinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.13 %. ~ 57.03 % of the time BlinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier - MC is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.25 % of the time MC wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 32.75 % of the time MC loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Happy is at ~ 0.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.9 % of the time Happy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.28 %. ~ 40.1 % of the time Happy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.61 % of the time Grubby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.2 %. ~ 63.39 % of the time Grubby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Serral is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.24 % of the time Serral wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.07 %. ~ 63.76 % of the time Serral loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS EU S3 Premier San has a ~ 9.94 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bunny has a ~ 9.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.77 % to ~ 99.99 % jjakji has a ~ 8.05 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.27 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 7.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 6.95 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.57 % to ~ 99.99 % MC has a ~ 6.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 5.82 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.46 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 5.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.78 % to ~ 97.6 % VortiX has a ~ 5.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.97 % to ~ 99.9 % Patience has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 92.72 % MMA has a ~ 3.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.96 % to ~ 100 % YoDa has a ~ 3.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.68 % to ~ 68.12 % Happy has a ~ 3.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.77 % to ~ 22.67 % Golden has a ~ 2.78 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.17 % to ~ 98.72 % Nerchio has a ~ 2.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 33.43 % Welmu has a ~ 1.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 99.86 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 1.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 10.78 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.93 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 71.82 % uThermal has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 4.95 % TLO has a ~ 1.05 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 99.56 % MaNa has a ~ 0.92 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 90.5 % Bly has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 3.68 % Harstem has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 15.84 % Kas has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 3.49 % BlinG has a ~ 0.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 7.68 % Serral has a ~ 0.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 3.44 % Grubby has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 15.47 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 9.69 % MorroW has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.87 % ToD has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 7.64 % Miniraser has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 2.16 %
WCS EU S3 Premier TLO would gain ~ 98.3 % if they win, with a ~ 1.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 99.56 % Welmu would gain ~ 97.35 % if they win, with a ~ 1.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 99.86 % Golden would gain ~ 95.54 % if they win, with a ~ 2.78 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.17 % to ~ 98.72 % VortiX would gain ~ 92.92 % if they win, with a ~ 5.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.97 % to ~ 99.9 % First would gain ~ 90.82 % if they win, with a ~ 5.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.78 % to ~ 97.6 % MaNa would gain ~ 89.63 % if they win, with a ~ 0.92 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 90.5 % ForGG would gain ~ 89.43 % if they win, with a ~ 6.95 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.57 % to ~ 99.99 % MMA would gain ~ 88.04 % if they win, with a ~ 3.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.96 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 87.51 % if they win, with a ~ 5.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 92.72 % Bunny would gain ~ 86.23 % if they win, with a ~ 9.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.77 % to ~ 99.99 % Snute would gain ~ 78.54 % if they win, with a ~ 5.82 % chance to win, going from ~ 21.46 % to ~ 100 % Dayshi would gain ~ 70.35 % if they win, with a ~ 1.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 71.82 % YoDa would gain ~ 65.44 % if they win, with a ~ 3.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.68 % to ~ 68.12 % Nerchio would gain ~ 32.72 % if they win, with a ~ 2.03 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 33.43 % Happy would gain ~ 21.9 % if they win, with a ~ 3.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.77 % to ~ 22.67 % Harstem would gain ~ 15.71 % if they win, with a ~ 0.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.13 % to ~ 15.84 % Grubby would gain ~ 15.39 % if they win, with a ~ 0.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 15.47 % ShoWTimE would gain ~ 10.56 % if they win, with a ~ 1.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.23 % to ~ 10.78 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 9.65 % if they win, with a ~ 0.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 9.69 % BlinG would gain ~ 7.62 % if they win, with a ~ 0.7 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 7.68 % ToD would gain ~ 7.62 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 7.64 % uThermal would gain ~ 4.89 % if they win, with a ~ 1.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 4.95 % jjakji would gain ~ 3.73 % if they win, with a ~ 8.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 96.27 % to ~ 100 % Bly would gain ~ 3.64 % if they win, with a ~ 0.83 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 3.68 % Kas would gain ~ 3.46 % if they win, with a ~ 0.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 3.49 % Serral would gain ~ 3.42 % if they win, with a ~ 0.66 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 3.44 % Miniraser would gain ~ 2.16 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 2.16 % MorroW would gain ~ 1.87 % if they win, with a ~ 0.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.87 % MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.62 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.94 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Nerchio has a ~ 2.03 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Golden has a ~ 2.78 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier KrasS has a ~ 0 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Dayshi has a ~ 1.93 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 6.73254
Group B Snute has a ~ 5.82 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier StarDust has a ~ 7.62 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Miniraser has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Patience has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 18.6908
Group C MMA has a ~ 3.91 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier First has a ~ 5.69 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier YoDa has a ~ 3.56 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier ShoWTimE has a ~ 1.99 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 15.1603
Group D LiveZerg has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier TLO has a ~ 1.05 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Welmu has a ~ 1.99 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier uThermal has a ~ 1.24 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 4.69641
Group E jjakji has a ~ 8.05 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Kas has a ~ 0.74 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier VortiX has a ~ 5.49 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Harstem has a ~ 0.76 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 15.0329
Group F San has a ~ 9.94 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier MorroW has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier ToD has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Bunny has a ~ 9.12 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 19.6304
Group G ForGG has a ~ 6.95 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier MaNa has a ~ 0.92 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Bly has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier BlinG has a ~ 0.7 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 9.40661
Group H MC has a ~ 6.24 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Happy has a ~ 3.21 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Grubby has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Serral has a ~ 0.66 % chance to win WCS EU S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 10.568
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores F > B > C > E
Group A Nerchio is at ~ 0.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Golden is at ~ 3.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 KrasS is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Dayshi is at ~ 1.47 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 5.35915
Group B Snute is at ~ 21.46 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Miniraser is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Patience is at ~ 5.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 126.68
Group C MMA is at ~ 11.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 First is at ~ 6.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 YoDa is at ~ 2.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ShoWTimE is at ~ 0.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 21.6404
Group D LiveZerg is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TLO is at ~ 1.26 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Welmu is at ~ 2.5 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 uThermal is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 3.86621
Group E jjakji is at ~ 96.27 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Kas is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 VortiX is at ~ 6.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Harstem is at ~ 0.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.394
Group F San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MorroW is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ToD is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bunny is at ~ 13.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 113.792
Group G ForGG is at ~ 10.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MaNa is at ~ 0.88 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Bly is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 BlinG is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 11.5379
Group H MC is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Happy is at ~ 0.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Grubby is at ~ 0.07 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Serral is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 100.867
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores B > F > E > H
Group A Nerchio's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Golden's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.12 % KrasS's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Dayshi's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.18 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.301627
Group B Snute's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.29 % StarDust's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Miniraser's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Patience's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.6 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.884693
Group C MMA's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.72 % First's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.36 % YoDa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.57 % ShoWTimE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.05 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 1.7
Group D LiveZerg's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % TLO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.2 % Welmu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.18 % uThermal's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.39356
Group E jjakji's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.46 % Kas's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % VortiX's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.04 % Harstem's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.464677
Group F San's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % MorroW's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % ToD's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Bunny's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 1.3 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.29217
Group G ForGG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.2 % MaNa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Bly's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % BlinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.187253
Group H MC's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Happy's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.08 % Grubby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Serral's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0652467
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores C > B > H > A
Group A When Nerchio wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.61 % When Nerchio loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.71 % When Golden wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.22 % When Golden loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 3.05 % When KrasS wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When KrasS loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Dayshi wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.07 % When Dayshi loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.45 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 9.10676
Group B When Snute wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.96 % When Snute loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 15.74 % When StarDust wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When StarDust loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Miniraser wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When Miniraser loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When Patience wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.55 % When Patience loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.08 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 35.3358
Group C When MMA wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.13 % When MMA loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.59 % When First wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.41 % When First loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.37 % When YoDa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.79 % When YoDa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.6 % When ShoWTimE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.32 % When ShoWTimE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.22 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 35.4283
Group D When LiveZerg wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When LiveZerg loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % When TLO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.07 % When TLO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.2 % When Welmu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.81 % When Welmu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.35 % When uThermal wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When uThermal loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 6.6645
Group E When jjakji wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.54 % When jjakji loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.22 % When Kas wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When Kas loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When VortiX wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.77 % When VortiX loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.46 % When Harstem wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.25 % When Harstem loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.13 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 18.448
Group F When San wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When San loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When MorroW wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 % When MorroW loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 % When ToD wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When ToD loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % When Bunny wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.52 % When Bunny loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 12.27 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 16.8887
Group G When ForGG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.83 % When ForGG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.57 % When MaNa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.07 % When MaNa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.87 % When Bly wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.04 % When Bly loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When BlinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.07 % When BlinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.06 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 16.532
Group H When MC wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When MC loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Happy wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.51 % When Happy loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.76 % When Grubby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.13 % When Grubby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.07 % When Serral wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.04 % When Serral loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 1.53186
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores C > B > E > F
Group A Nerchio has an overall Aligulac rating of 1728 Golden has an overall Aligulac rating of 1773 KrasS has an overall Aligulac rating of 1339 Dayshi has an overall Aligulac rating of 1713 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6553
Group B Snute has an overall Aligulac rating of 1956 StarDust has an overall Aligulac rating of 1940 Miniraser has an overall Aligulac rating of 1379 Patience has an overall Aligulac rating of 1878 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7153
Group C MMA has an overall Aligulac rating of 1876 First has an overall Aligulac rating of 1875 YoDa has an overall Aligulac rating of 1872 ShoWTimE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1718 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7341
Group D LiveZerg has an overall Aligulac rating of 1496 TLO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1610 Welmu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1659 uThermal has an overall Aligulac rating of 1644 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6409
Group E jjakji has an overall Aligulac rating of 2006 Kas has an overall Aligulac rating of 1594 VortiX has an overall Aligulac rating of 1914 Harstem has an overall Aligulac rating of 1567 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7081
Group F San has an overall Aligulac rating of 2032 MorroW has an overall Aligulac rating of 1469 ToD has an overall Aligulac rating of 1446 Bunny has an overall Aligulac rating of 2027 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6974
Group G ForGG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1962 MaNa has an overall Aligulac rating of 1551 Bly has an overall Aligulac rating of 1591 BlinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1514 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6618
Group H MC has an overall Aligulac rating of 1902 Happy has an overall Aligulac rating of 1781 Grubby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1490 Serral has an overall Aligulac rating of 1591 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6764
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores C > B > E > F
Group A has a 4th place Group B has a 1st place, and 4 2nd places Group C has three 1st places, and a 3rd place Group D has no top 4 placings Group E has three 3rd places, and a 4th place Group F has a 1st place, a 2nd place, and two 4th places Group G has no top 4 placings Group H has a 3rd place, and a 4th place
Group C is our Group of Death! Congrats to MMA, First, YoDa, and ShoWTimE! Group B wins the 2nd place Group of Death with Snute, StarDust, Miniraser, and Patience.
What do you think?
Poll: Hardest group?
Group A (Golden, Nerchio, Dayshi, KrasS) (7)
3%
Group B (StarDust, Snute, Patience, Miniraser) (46)
21%
Group C (First, YoDa, MMa, ShoWTimE) (126)
57%
Group D (Welmu, LiveZerg, TLO, uThermal) (3)
1%
Group E (VortiX, Harstem, jjakji, Kas) (17)
8%
Group F (San, ToD, Bunny, MorroW) (7)
3%
Group G (ForGG, MaNa, BlinG, Bly) (1)
0%
Group H (MC, Grubby, Happy, Serral) (13)
6%
220 total votes
Your vote: Hardest group?
(Vote): Group A (Golden, Nerchio, Dayshi, KrasS) (Vote): Group B (StarDust, Snute, Patience, Miniraser) (Vote): Group C (First, YoDa, MMa, ShoWTimE) (Vote): Group D (Welmu, LiveZerg, TLO, uThermal) (Vote): Group E (VortiX, Harstem, jjakji, Kas) (Vote): Group F (San, ToD, Bunny, MorroW) (Vote): Group G (ForGG, MaNa, BlinG, Bly) (Vote): Group H (MC, Grubby, Happy, Serral)
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 12 4:35pm GMT (GMT+00:00) IEM and Red Bull Updates! In this update I added the results of the IEM Toronto qualifiers with Zest and Flash qualifying, added Red Bull Detroit replacing Placeholder Tournament 3, and I added the seed for the winner of Red Bull Detroit to Red Bull Washington.
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
~ 0 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.09 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.84 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 41.07 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.71 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 72.09 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 86.03 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 96.69 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Life went down by ~ 2.61 %, going from ~ 66.31 % to ~ 63.7 % herO went down by ~ 1.97 %, going from ~ 52.68 % to ~ 50.71 % Classic went down by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 71.77 % to ~ 69.93 % soO went down by ~ 1.65 %, going from ~ 52.25 % to ~ 50.6 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.61 %, going from ~ 48.5 % to ~ 46.89 % Snute went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 20.08 % to ~ 18.78 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 13.2 % to ~ 12.02 % MMA went down by ~ 0.7 %, going from ~ 10.77 % to ~ 10.08 % sOs went down by ~ 0.63 %, going from ~ 96.04 % to ~ 95.41 % HerO went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 6.54 % to ~ 6.02 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 9.41 % to ~ 8.9 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 13.77 % to ~ 13.27 %
These changes had some big effects, probably mostly because of the removal of Placeholder Tournament 3, we are now down to just 2 placeholder tournaments.
IEM Toronto TaeJa has a ~ 11.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 10.93 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.42 % to ~ 99.97 % HyuN has a ~ 10.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 9.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 8.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 8.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.04 % to ~ 73.5 % MC has a ~ 6.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 6.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 9.98 % Flash has a ~ 5.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 2.86 % YoDa has a ~ 5.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 4.75 % viOLet has a ~ 3.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 38.41 % MaSa has a ~ 2.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Sacsri has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 2.91 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 39.77 % herO has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.72 % to ~ 98.85 % Rain has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 30.03 % San has a ~ 0.27 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bunny has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 42.41 % PartinG has a ~ 0.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 30.51 % Solar has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 25.66 % jjakji has a ~ 0.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.17 % to ~ 100 % KingKong has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.11 % Maru has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 37.5 % ForGG has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 38.37 % Life has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 63.7 % to ~ 100 % Dear has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.74 % to ~ 23.84 % Snute has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.78 % to ~ 78.64 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 5.32 % VortiX has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 21.55 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 5.97 % Patience has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 9.5 % Classic has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.92 % to ~ 99.98 % Jaedong has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 1.32 % MMA has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 54.03 % soO has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.6 % to ~ 98.41 % TY has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.04 % Trap has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 9.98 % RagnaroK has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.27 % Bbyong has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 3.18 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 1.5 % Happy has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 4.01 % Cure has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.76 % Avenge has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 0.76 % Golden has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 10.14 % MajOr has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 14.74 % Stats has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 1.88 % Trust has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.98 % Pigbaby has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 46.89 % to ~ 97.25 % TRUE has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 6.74 % Jim has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 5.79 %
IEM Toronto Snute would gain ~ 59.85 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.78 % to ~ 78.64 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 50.36 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 46.89 % to ~ 97.25 % herO would gain ~ 48.13 % if they win, with a ~ 0.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.72 % to ~ 98.85 % soO would gain ~ 47.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.6 % to ~ 98.41 % MMA would gain ~ 43.96 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 54.03 % HerO would gain ~ 41.76 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.03 % to ~ 47.79 % Life would gain ~ 36.3 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.7 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 30.06 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 69.92 % to ~ 99.98 % Scarlett would gain ~ 29.46 % if they win, with a ~ 8.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.04 % to ~ 73.5 % Bunny would gain ~ 29.13 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 42.41 % ForGG would gain ~ 28.17 % if they win, with a ~ 0.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 38.37 % Maru would gain ~ 26.84 % if they win, with a ~ 0.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 37.5 % viOLet would gain ~ 26.39 % if they win, with a ~ 3.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 38.41 % INnoVation would gain ~ 21.86 % if they win, with a ~ 0.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 39.77 % PartinG would gain ~ 21.61 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 30.51 % Rain would gain ~ 20.28 % if they win, with a ~ 0.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 30.03 % Dear would gain ~ 18.1 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.74 % to ~ 23.84 % Solar would gain ~ 17.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 25.66 % VortiX would gain ~ 14.59 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 21.55 % MajOr would gain ~ 10.63 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 14.74 % Trap would gain ~ 9.4 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 9.98 % Heart would gain ~ 9.31 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.86 % to ~ 14.17 % Welmu would gain ~ 9.3 % if they win, with a ~ 0.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.7 % to ~ 11.99 % Golden would gain ~ 6.95 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 10.14 % TRUE would gain ~ 5.37 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 6.74 % Patience would gain ~ 4.86 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 9.5 % jjakji would gain ~ 4.83 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.17 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 4.56 % if they win, with a ~ 10.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.42 % to ~ 99.97 % Jim would gain ~ 4.32 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 5.79 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 4.14 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 5.32 % Soulkey would gain ~ 4.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 5.97 % Alicia would gain ~ 3.9 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 4.11 % Sen would gain ~ 3.74 % if they win, with a ~ 0.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 3.92 % First would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 6.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 9.98 % Happy would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 4.01 % Cure would gain ~ 2.61 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.76 % Bbyong would gain ~ 2.58 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 3.18 % Sacsri would gain ~ 2.58 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 2.91 % YoDa would gain ~ 2.26 % if they win, with a ~ 5.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 4.75 % Flash would gain ~ 2.23 % if they win, with a ~ 5.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 2.86 % Dayshi would gain ~ 1.99 % if they win, with a ~ 0.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 3.39 % ShoWTimE would gain ~ 1.99 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 2.18 % Nerchio would gain ~ 1.98 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.61 % to ~ 2.6 % Reality would gain ~ 1.91 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 2.01 % TY would gain ~ 1.89 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.04 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Stats would gain ~ 1.78 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 1.88 % EffOrt would gain ~ 1.68 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 1.76 % Hurricane would gain ~ 1.38 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 1.5 % Leenock would gain ~ 1.23 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 1.32 % Trust would gain ~ 0.93 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.98 %
Red Bull Detroit HyuN has a ~ 21.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 17.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.05 % to ~ 71.97 % MajOr has a ~ 9.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 12.84 % Bails has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Sacsri has a ~ 0.64 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 11.43 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.63 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 66.81 % herO has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.72 % to ~ 99.56 % TaeJa has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.41 % to ~ 99.99 % San has a ~ 0.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 0.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 55.6 % Bunny has a ~ 0.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 69.9 % KingKong has a ~ 0.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.4 % Zest has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.18 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 30.77 % Solar has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 51.06 % Dear has a ~ 0.48 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 49.02 % Life has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 63.71 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 0.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 0.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.78 % to ~ 91.02 % MC has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Maru has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 63.9 % ForGG has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.19 % to ~ 64.28 % Jaedong has a ~ 0.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 12.54 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 9.68 % VortiX has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 44.33 % First has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 34.5 % Patience has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 20.01 % Classic has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.93 % to ~ 99.99 % YoDa has a ~ 0.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 13.99 % Ourk has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.15 % Flash has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 6.1 % Mvp has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.48 % Bomber has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bones has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Leenock has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 6.42 % soO has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.6 % to ~ 99.34 % Trap has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 10.67 % MMA has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 76.55 % Sora has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.18 % TY has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.99 % Pet has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.3 % RagnaroK has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.79 % Cure has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 3.73 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 2.29 % viOLet has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 80.4 % Bbyong has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 6.1 % Hydra has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.26 %
Red Bull Detroit Snute would gain ~ 72.24 % if they win, with a ~ 0.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.78 % to ~ 91.02 % viOLet would gain ~ 68.38 % if they win, with a ~ 0.31 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 80.4 % MMA would gain ~ 66.47 % if they win, with a ~ 0.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 76.55 % HerO would gain ~ 64.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.03 % to ~ 70.69 % Bunny would gain ~ 56.62 % if they win, with a ~ 0.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 69.9 % ForGG would gain ~ 54.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.19 % to ~ 64.28 % Maru would gain ~ 53.25 % if they win, with a ~ 0.44 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.66 % to ~ 63.9 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 51.82 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 46.88 % to ~ 98.71 % INnoVation would gain ~ 48.9 % if they win, with a ~ 0.63 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 66.81 % herO would gain ~ 48.84 % if they win, with a ~ 0.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.72 % to ~ 99.56 % soO would gain ~ 48.74 % if they win, with a ~ 0.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.6 % to ~ 99.34 % Rain would gain ~ 45.86 % if they win, with a ~ 0.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 55.6 % Dear would gain ~ 43.29 % if they win, with a ~ 0.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 49.02 % Solar would gain ~ 43.05 % if they win, with a ~ 0.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 51.06 % VortiX would gain ~ 37.36 % if they win, with a ~ 0.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 44.33 % Life would gain ~ 36.29 % if they win, with a ~ 0.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.71 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 30.07 % if they win, with a ~ 0.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 69.93 % to ~ 99.99 % Scarlett would gain ~ 27.92 % if they win, with a ~ 17.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.05 % to ~ 71.97 % First would gain ~ 27.89 % if they win, with a ~ 0.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 34.5 % Welmu would gain ~ 25.27 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.69 % to ~ 27.97 % Heart would gain ~ 23.68 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.86 % to ~ 28.54 % PartinG would gain ~ 21.87 % if they win, with a ~ 0.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 30.77 % Golden would gain ~ 20.48 % if they win, with a ~ 0.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 23.68 % TRUE would gain ~ 17.44 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 18.81 % Alicia would gain ~ 17.31 % if they win, with a ~ 0.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 17.51 % Sen would gain ~ 16.21 % if they win, with a ~ 0.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 16.39 % TLO would gain ~ 16.12 % if they win, with a ~ 0.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 17.38 % Patience would gain ~ 15.38 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 20.01 % HuK would gain ~ 13.75 % if they win, with a ~ 0.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.51 % to ~ 16.26 % Oz would gain ~ 13.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.11 % to ~ 13.78 % YoDa would gain ~ 11.5 % if they win, with a ~ 0.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 13.99 % Sacsri would gain ~ 11.11 % if they win, with a ~ 0.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 11.43 % Soulkey would gain ~ 10.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 12.54 % Trap would gain ~ 10.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 10.67 % Jim would gain ~ 9.94 % if they win, with a ~ 0.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 11.41 % MajOr would gain ~ 8.73 % if they win, with a ~ 9.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 12.84 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 8.49 % if they win, with a ~ 0.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 9.68 % Dayshi would gain ~ 6.58 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 7.98 % Leenock would gain ~ 6.32 % if they win, with a ~ 0.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 6.42 % Happy would gain ~ 5.59 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 6.24 % Bbyong would gain ~ 5.51 % if they win, with a ~ 0.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 6.1 % Flash would gain ~ 5.46 % if they win, with a ~ 0.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 6.1 % MaNa would gain ~ 5.06 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.86 % to ~ 5.92 % jjakji would gain ~ 4.82 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.18 % to ~ 100 % Nerchio would gain ~ 4.82 % if they win, with a ~ 0.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.61 % to ~ 5.43 % sOs would gain ~ 4.57 % if they win, with a ~ 0.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.41 % to ~ 99.99 % Check would gain ~ 3.62 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 3.88 % Cure would gain ~ 3.58 % if they win, with a ~ 0.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 3.73 % puCK would gain ~ 3.27 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.4 % to ~ 3.67 % Revival would gain ~ 2.93 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 2.95 % TY would gain ~ 2.85 % if they win, with a ~ 0.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 2.99 %
Red Bull Washington sOs has a ~ 22.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.41 % to ~ 99.97 % Scarlett has a ~ 19.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.05 % to ~ 71.46 % PartinG has a ~ 18.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 14.63 % Bomber has a ~ 13.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Trap has a ~ 9.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.48 % HyuN has a ~ 4.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 36.58 % Sacsri has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 14.83 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.92 % to ~ 70.01 % Bunny has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 70.18 % Solar has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 56.69 % herO has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.71 % to ~ 99.52 % Rain has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 61.66 % KingKong has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.58 % jjakji has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.17 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.77 % to ~ 88.43 % Life has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 63.7 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 12.41 % VortiX has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 50.01 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 15.99 % Dear has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 56.1 % Maru has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 64.89 % First has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 39.88 % ForGG has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 65.04 % Jaedong has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 8.12 % Patience has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 25.49 % soO has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.61 % to ~ 99.08 % YoDa has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 18.45 % Classic has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.93 % to ~ 100 % Pet has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.43 % Leenock has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 10.46 % Mvp has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.8 % RagnaroK has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.45 % MMA has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 72.1 % viOLet has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 75.77 % TY has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 3.41 % Bbyong has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 8.52 % Stats has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 2.68 % Golden has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 28.99 % Happy has a ~ 0.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 7.74 % Symbol has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.3 % Hurricane has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 2.86 % Cure has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 4.21 % TRUE has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.37 % to ~ 26.52 % Avenge has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.52 % Pigbaby has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 46.89 % to ~ 98.34 % Jim has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 15.43 % Trust has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 1.83 % GuMiho has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.14 % EffOrt has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 2.64 %
Red Bull Washington Snute would gain ~ 69.66 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.77 % to ~ 88.43 % viOLet would gain ~ 63.75 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 75.77 % MMA would gain ~ 62.02 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.08 % to ~ 72.1 % Bunny would gain ~ 56.9 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 70.18 % ForGG would gain ~ 54.84 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 65.04 % Maru would gain ~ 54.24 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 64.89 % INnoVation would gain ~ 52.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.92 % to ~ 70.01 % Rain would gain ~ 51.91 % if they win, with a ~ 0.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 61.66 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 51.46 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 46.89 % to ~ 98.34 % Dear would gain ~ 50.37 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 56.1 % herO would gain ~ 48.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.71 % to ~ 99.52 % Solar would gain ~ 48.68 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.01 % to ~ 56.69 % soO would gain ~ 48.47 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 50.61 % to ~ 99.08 % VortiX would gain ~ 43.04 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.96 % to ~ 50.01 % Life would gain ~ 36.3 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.7 % to ~ 100 % First would gain ~ 33.26 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.62 % to ~ 39.88 % MajOr would gain ~ 32.47 % if they win, with a ~ 0.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.11 % to ~ 36.58 % Classic would gain ~ 30.07 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 69.93 % to ~ 100 % Sen would gain ~ 28.1 % if they win, with a ~ 0.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.18 % to ~ 28.28 % Scarlett would gain ~ 27.41 % if they win, with a ~ 19.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.05 % to ~ 71.46 % Golden would gain ~ 25.8 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.2 % to ~ 28.99 % TRUE would gain ~ 25.14 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.37 % to ~ 26.52 % Patience would gain ~ 20.85 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.64 % to ~ 25.49 % YoDa would gain ~ 15.96 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 18.45 % Sacsri would gain ~ 14.5 % if they win, with a ~ 0.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.33 % to ~ 14.83 % Soulkey would gain ~ 14.11 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 15.99 % Jim would gain ~ 13.96 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.47 % to ~ 15.43 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 11.23 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.18 % to ~ 12.41 % Leenock would gain ~ 10.36 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.09 % to ~ 10.46 % Dayshi would gain ~ 9.63 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 11.03 % Bbyong would gain ~ 7.93 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.6 % to ~ 8.52 % Flash would gain ~ 7.49 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 8.12 % Happy would gain ~ 7.09 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.65 % to ~ 7.74 % Nerchio would gain ~ 6.39 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.61 % to ~ 7.01 % PartinG would gain ~ 5.73 % if they win, with a ~ 18.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.9 % to ~ 14.63 % jjakji would gain ~ 4.83 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.17 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 4.56 % if they win, with a ~ 22.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.41 % to ~ 99.97 % Cure would gain ~ 4.06 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 4.21 % ShoWTimE would gain ~ 3.57 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 3.76 % Reality would gain ~ 3.29 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 3.38 % TY would gain ~ 3.27 % if they win, with a ~ 0.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 3.41 % Hurricane would gain ~ 2.74 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 2.86 % Stats would gain ~ 2.57 % if they win, with a ~ 0.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 2.68 % EffOrt would gain ~ 2.56 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 2.64 % Trap would gain ~ 1.91 % if they win, with a ~ 9.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.48 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.81 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.19 % to ~ 100 % Trust would gain ~ 1.78 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 1.83 % Avenge would gain ~ 1.48 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.52 % RagnaroK would gain ~ 1.44 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.45 % Impact would gain ~ 1.08 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 1.08 % Mvp would gain ~ 0.79 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.8 %
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~ 0 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.06 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.54 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 40.19 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.15 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 71.64 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 85.28 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 96.41 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Snute went up by ~ 5.37 %, going from ~ 18.73 % to ~ 24.1 % Bunny went up by ~ 3.1 %, going from ~ 13.28 % to ~ 16.38 % Maru went up by ~ 1.73 %, going from ~ 10.43 % to ~ 12.16 % Jaedong went up by ~ 0.61 %, going from ~ 97.88 % to ~ 98.48 % Stats went up by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.38 % HuK went up by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 2.45 %
Life went down by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 63.01 % to ~ 61.5 % herO went down by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 49.18 % to ~ 48.07 % Classic went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 71.19 % to ~ 70.19 % soO went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 48.97 % to ~ 48.02 % Patience went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 4.66 % to ~ 3.8 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 43.38 % to ~ 42.56 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 48.38 % to ~ 47.62 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.47 %, going from ~ 17.95 % to ~ 17.48 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 11.62 % to ~ 11.21 % HerO went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 10.88 % to ~ 10.53 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 95.16 % to ~ 94.86 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 2.99 % to ~ 2.71 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 8.53 % to ~ 8.25 % Rain went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 9.28 % to ~ 9.01 % sOs went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 95.26 % to ~ 95.03 % Solar went down by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 7.71 % to ~ 7.5 % MMA went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 9.94 % to ~ 9.74 % Dear went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 5.52 % to ~ 5.32 % Golden went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 3.19 % to ~ 3.06 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 10.16 % to ~ 10.06 %
IEM Toronto Open Brackets Bunny has a ~ 51.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 19.51 % StarDust has a ~ 43.85 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Maru has a ~ 43.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.16 % to ~ 14.85 % Snute has a ~ 40.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.1 % to ~ 32.5 % Jaedong has a ~ 36.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.48 % to ~ 99.74 % Leenock has a ~ 33.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.3 % HuK has a ~ 27.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 2.91 % Oz has a ~ 22.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.27 % Kane has a ~ 22.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Revival has a ~ 21.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.08 % puCK has a ~ 19.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 0.48 % hendralisk has a ~ 16.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % desRow has a ~ 9.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Believe has a ~ 6.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bones has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Sasquatch has a ~ 1.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
IEM Toronto Open Brackets Snute would gain ~ 8.39 % if they win, with a ~ 40.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 24.1 % to ~ 32.5 % Bunny would gain ~ 3.13 % if they win, with a ~ 51.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 19.51 % Maru would gain ~ 2.69 % if they win, with a ~ 43.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.16 % to ~ 14.85 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.26 % if they win, with a ~ 36.03 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.48 % to ~ 99.74 % HuK would gain ~ 0.45 % if they win, with a ~ 27.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 2.91 % Leenock would gain ~ 0.14 % if they win, with a ~ 33.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.3 % Oz would gain ~ 0.13 % if they win, with a ~ 22.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 0.27 % puCK would gain ~ 0.09 % if they win, with a ~ 19.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 0.48 % Revival would gain ~ 0.04 % if they win, with a ~ 21.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.08 % Kane would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 22.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % hendralisk would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 16.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 43.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % desRow would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Believe would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bones would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.92 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Sasquatch would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
IEM Toronto TaeJa has a ~ 10.8 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 10.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.03 % to ~ 99.97 % HyuN has a ~ 9.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 8.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 8.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 7.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 42.56 % to ~ 72.91 % Flash has a ~ 6.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.77 % to ~ 3.37 % MC has a ~ 5.89 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 5.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.56 % to ~ 9.95 % YoDa has a ~ 5.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.44 % to ~ 4.75 % Bunny has a ~ 3.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 42.82 % viOLet has a ~ 3.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 37.41 % Maru has a ~ 2.94 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.16 % to ~ 36.58 % StarDust has a ~ 2.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MaSa has a ~ 2.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Snute has a ~ 2.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.1 % to ~ 79.33 % Leenock has a ~ 1.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.29 % Jaedong has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.48 % to ~ 100 % HuK has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 6.56 % Oz has a ~ 0.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 3.02 % Revival has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.57 % Kane has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0 % puCK has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 1.2 %
IEM Toronto Snute would gain ~ 55.23 % if they win, with a ~ 2.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 24.1 % to ~ 79.33 % Scarlett would gain ~ 30.35 % if they win, with a ~ 7.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 42.56 % to ~ 72.91 % Bunny would gain ~ 26.44 % if they win, with a ~ 3.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 16.38 % to ~ 42.82 % viOLet would gain ~ 26.18 % if they win, with a ~ 3.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 37.41 % Maru would gain ~ 24.41 % if they win, with a ~ 2.94 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.16 % to ~ 36.58 % sOs would gain ~ 4.94 % if they win, with a ~ 10.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.03 % to ~ 99.97 % HuK would gain ~ 4.11 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.45 % to ~ 6.56 % First would gain ~ 3.39 % if they win, with a ~ 5.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.56 % to ~ 9.95 % Oz would gain ~ 2.88 % if they win, with a ~ 0.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 3.02 % Flash would gain ~ 2.6 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.77 % to ~ 3.37 % YoDa would gain ~ 2.32 % if they win, with a ~ 5.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.44 % to ~ 4.75 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.52 % if they win, with a ~ 1.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.48 % to ~ 100 % Leenock would gain ~ 1.14 % if they win, with a ~ 1.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.29 % puCK would gain ~ 0.82 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 1.2 % Revival would gain ~ 0.54 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.57 % MaSa would gain ~ 0.02 % if they win, with a ~ 2.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Zest would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 8.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Kane would gain ~ -0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
--------UPDATE Thursday, Aug 14 4:05am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
~ 0 % of the time 2,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.06 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.96 % of the time 2,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 18.84 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 45.47 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.79 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 65.03 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 80.46 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 86.1 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 96.77 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Scarlett went up by ~ 0.84 %, going from ~ 42.42 % to ~ 43.26 % Life went up by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 61.6 % to ~ 62.41 % MajOr went up by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 5.68 % to ~ 6.13 % herO went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 48.18 % to ~ 48.54 % HerO went up by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 10.33 % to ~ 10.61 % Classic went up by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 70.21 % to ~ 70.49 % soO went up by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 48.08 % to ~ 48.35 % jjakji went up by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 94.88 % to ~ 95.09 % Heart went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 4.13 % to ~ 4.3 % Snute went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 24.15 % to ~ 24.31 %
Pigbaby went down by ~ 4.27 %, going from ~ 46.98 % to ~ 42.71 % Jaedong went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 98.46 % to ~ 98.28 % HuK went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 2.15 %
Here are the previews for the round of 16 groups. No countdowns since they aren't scheduled yet.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Scarlett is at ~ 43.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.98 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 57.23 %. ~ 38.02 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 20.46 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HerO is at ~ 10.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.59 % of the time HerO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 19.85 %. ~ 51.41 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.89 %. ------------------------------------------------- - viOLet is at ~ 11.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.03 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 20.93 %. ~ 51.97 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - iaguz is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.4 % of the time iaguz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 58.6 % of the time iaguz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.13 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 36.87 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.91 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.09 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 98.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.8 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.96 %. ~ 55.2 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 96.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 42.71 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.15 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 66.04 %. ~ 63.85 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 29.5 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.33 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 33.67 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jim is at ~ 1.33 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.11 % of the time Jim wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.63 %. ~ 49.89 % of the time Jim loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 0.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.52 % of the time Check wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.53 %. ~ 55.48 % of the time Check loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 2.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.04 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.4 %. ~ 60.96 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.07 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.31 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 27.69 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 6.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.97 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.69 %. ~ 45.03 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 4.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.09 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.46 %. ~ 49.91 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - neeb is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 22.63 % of the time neeb wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 77.37 % of the time neeb loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
WCS AM S3 Premier TaeJa has a ~ 15.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 14.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 13.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 11.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 43.25 % to ~ 99.99 % Bomber has a ~ 8.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 5.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.28 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 5.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.12 % to ~ 88.75 % viOLet has a ~ 4.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.1 % to ~ 100 % Heart has a ~ 4.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.3 % to ~ 94.2 % HerO has a ~ 4.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.62 % to ~ 100 % Jim has a ~ 3.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.33 % to ~ 33.55 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 42.71 % to ~ 100 % HuK has a ~ 2.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.15 % to ~ 88.47 % iaguz has a ~ 1.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.97 % Check has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.24 % to ~ 12.2 % neeb has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 5.78 %
WCS AM S3 Premier Heart would gain ~ 89.9 % if they win, with a ~ 4.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.3 % to ~ 94.2 % HerO would gain ~ 89.38 % if they win, with a ~ 4.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.62 % to ~ 100 % viOLet would gain ~ 88.9 % if they win, with a ~ 4.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.1 % to ~ 100 % HuK would gain ~ 86.31 % if they win, with a ~ 2.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.15 % to ~ 88.47 % MajOr would gain ~ 82.63 % if they win, with a ~ 5.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.12 % to ~ 88.75 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 57.29 % if they win, with a ~ 2.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 42.71 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 56.74 % if they win, with a ~ 11.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 43.25 % to ~ 99.99 % Jim would gain ~ 32.23 % if they win, with a ~ 3.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.33 % to ~ 33.55 % Check would gain ~ 11.96 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.24 % to ~ 12.2 % neeb would gain ~ 5.76 % if they win, with a ~ 0.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 5.78 % iaguz would gain ~ 1.93 % if they win, with a ~ 1.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.97 % Jaedong would gain ~ 1.72 % if they win, with a ~ 5.62 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.28 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 14.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. This one seems obvious, but keep in mind this is the group of death for Blizzcon Chances, so the effects on Blizzcon Chances are a big factor here, and if you're already at 100% chances then you can't go up or down. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A viOLet has a ~ 4.54 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HerO has a ~ 4.05 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Scarlett has a ~ 11.83 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier iaguz has a ~ 1.87 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 22.2918
Group B TaeJa has a ~ 15.66 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HyuN has a ~ 13.25 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Jaedong has a ~ 5.62 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Pigbaby has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 37.5178
Group C Bomber has a ~ 8.9 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier HuK has a ~ 2.19 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Jim has a ~ 3.66 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Check has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 16.5604
Group D Polt has a ~ 14.1 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Heart has a ~ 4.16 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier MajOr has a ~ 5.02 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier neeb has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win WCS AM S3 Premier Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 23.6301
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores B > D > A > C
Group A viOLet is at ~ 11.09 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HerO is at ~ 10.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Scarlett is at ~ 43.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 iaguz is at ~ 0.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 64.9971
Group B TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Jaedong is at ~ 98.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Pigbaby is at ~ 42.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 341.004
Group C Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 HuK is at ~ 2.15 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Jim is at ~ 1.34 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Check is at ~ 0.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.726
Group D Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Heart is at ~ 4.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 MajOr is at ~ 6.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 neeb is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 110.447
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores B >>>>>>>> D > C > A
Group A viOLet's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.03 % HerO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.3 % Scarlett's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.82 % iaguz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.15254
Group B TaeJa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % HyuN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Jaedong's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.18 % Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -4.26 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 4.43723
Group C Bomber's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % HuK's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.15 % Jim's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.05 % Check's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.0777651
Group D Polt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Heart's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.17 % MajOr's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.44 % neeb's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.607589
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores B > C > D > A
Group A When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.82 % When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.07 % When HerO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.24 % When HerO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 8.73 % When Scarlett wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 13.99 % When Scarlett loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 22.81 % When iaguz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When iaguz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.04 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 73.7545
Group B When TaeJa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When TaeJa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When HyuN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When HyuN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Jaedong wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.68 % When Jaedong loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.36 % When Pigbaby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 23.33 % When Pigbaby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 13.22 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 39.5928
Group C When Bomber wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Bomber loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When HuK wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.25 % When HuK loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.08 % When Jim wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.31 % When Jim loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.31 % When Check wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.29 % When Check loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.23 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 8.46533
Group D When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Heart wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.16 % When Heart loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 4.17 % When MajOr wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.58 % When MajOr loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.59 % When neeb wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.07 % When neeb loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.02 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 18.5807
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores A > B > D > C
Group A viOLet has an overall Aligulac rating of 1793 HerO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1722 Scarlett has an overall Aligulac rating of 2003 iaguz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1621 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7139
Group B TaeJa has an overall Aligulac rating of 2095 HyuN has an overall Aligulac rating of 2071 Jaedong has an overall Aligulac rating of 1858 Pigbaby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1738 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7762
Group C Bomber has an overall Aligulac rating of 1888 HuK has an overall Aligulac rating of 1635 Jim has an overall Aligulac rating of 1723 Check has an overall Aligulac rating of 1621 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6867
Group D Polt has an overall Aligulac rating of 2015 Heart has an overall Aligulac rating of 1723 MajOr has an overall Aligulac rating of 1762 neeb has an overall Aligulac rating of 1370 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6870
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores B > A > D > C
Group A has a 1st place, a 2nd place, a 3rd place, and two 4th places Group B has four 1st places, and a 2nd place Group C has a 2nd place, a 3rd place, and three 4th places Group D has two 2nd places, and three 3rd places
Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to TaeJa, HyuN, Jaedong, and Pigbaby! Group A is our 2nd place Group of Death with viOLet, HerO, Scarlett, and iaguz, look out for this group too as it has by far the biggest effect on the Blizzcon Chances!
What do you think?
Poll: Group of Death?
Group B: HyuN, Jaedong, TaeJa, Pigbaby (345)
92%
Group A: viOLet, Scarlett, Iaguz, HerO (13)
3%
Group C: Check, Jim, Bomber, HuK (8)
2%
Group D: Polt, Neeb, Heart, MajOr (5)
1%
All of the groups are equally difficult. (4)
1%
375 total votes
Your vote: Group of Death?
(Vote): Group A: viOLet, Scarlett, Iaguz, HerO (Vote): Group B: HyuN, Jaedong, TaeJa, Pigbaby (Vote): Group C: Check, Jim, Bomber, HuK (Vote): Group D: Polt, Neeb, Heart, MajOr (Vote): All of the groups are equally difficult.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
Poor Pigbaby. Placed in a group with 4 people who are almost certainly going to Blizzcon. On the other hand some of my favourite players Scarlett and Maru are on the edge, so maybe its for a good cause.
On August 20 2014 05:14 Xoronius wrote: People were saying in the WCS EU LR, that Scarlett canceled Detroit, updating that probably changes a lot.
Thanks I didn't catch that, on vacation this week so not completely on top of everything. Just did the update along with today's WCS EU group.
chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 72.25 % down to ~ 56.24 % chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 23.05 % down to ~ 11.93 %
Current top 5 foreigner hopes Scarlett ~ 16.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 24.38 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 8.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.2 % chance overall. MajOr ~ 4.11 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 6.63 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 4.1 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 6.67 % chance overall. Snute ~ 3.86 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 6.64 % chance overall.
Biggest Winners since 3 days ago Rain went up by ~ 20.32 %, going from ~ 14.41 % to ~ 34.74 % Life went up by ~ 9.54 %, going from ~ 59.02 % to ~ 68.55 % Flash went up by ~ 3.2 %, going from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 3.84 % jjakji went up by ~ 2.44 %, going from ~ 94.26 % to ~ 96.7 % viOLet went up by ~ 1.43 %, going from ~ 10.57 % to ~ 12.01 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
YoDa went up by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 5.73 % to ~ 6.88 % Heart went up by ~ 1.12 %, going from ~ 4.35 % to ~ 5.47 % soO went up by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 63.29 % to ~ 64.29 % Jaedong went up by ~ 0.9 %, going from ~ 97.99 % to ~ 98.89 % MMA went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 8.55 % to ~ 9.34 % Reality went up by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 0.07 % to ~ 0.82 % Classic went up by ~ 0.53 %, going from ~ 68.43 % to ~ 68.96 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 41.48 % Soulkey went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 2.24 % to ~ 2.6 % First went up by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 6.64 % to ~ 6.99 % PartinG went up by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 7.32 % to ~ 7.56 % HuK went up by ~ 0.24 %, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 2.12 % Nerchio went up by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 0.73 % Golden went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 2.85 % to ~ 3.02 % Jim went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 1.38 % sOs went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 94.47 % to ~ 94.63 % Dayshi went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 1.42 % MajOr went up by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 6.5 % to ~ 6.63 %
Biggest Losers since 3 days ago Scarlett went down by ~ 18.9 %, going from ~ 43.28 % to ~ 24.38 % Snute went down by ~ 15.99 %, going from ~ 22.63 % to ~ 6.64 % Patience went down by ~ 4.35 %, going from ~ 4.36 % to ~ 0.01 % Solar went down by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 7.03 % to ~ 5.35 % Dear went down by ~ 1.09 %, going from ~ 4.69 % to ~ 3.6 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
INnoVation went down by ~ 1.09 %, going from ~ 15.81 % to ~ 14.71 % Maru went down by ~ 1.02 %, going from ~ 10.81 % to ~ 9.78 % HerO went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 9.4 % to ~ 9.02 % herO went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 48.72 % to ~ 48.34 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 13.41 % to ~ 13.2 % Trap went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 0.47 % to ~ 0.29 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 1.31 % to ~ 1.15 % Sacsri went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 0.05 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 2.4 %
Current top 25 by chances
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
Red Bull Detroit - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.27 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 48.73 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 25.31 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.73 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 34.23 %. ~ 51.27 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 16.83 %.
Red Bull Detroit - Suppy is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.01 % of the time Suppy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 25.99 % of the time Suppy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EJK is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.99 % of the time EJK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 74.01 % of the time EJK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - Trust is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.45 % of the time Trust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 19.55 % of the time Trust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Honeybear is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.55 % of the time Honeybear wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 80.45 % of the time Honeybear loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - viOLet is at ~ 19.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.38 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 24.52 %. ~ 39.62 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 11.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Apocalypse is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.62 % of the time Apocalypse wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 60.38 % of the time Apocalypse loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.37 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 38.63 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 2.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.63 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.25 %. ~ 61.37 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.01 %.
Red Bull Detroit - puCK is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.62 % of the time puCK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 42.38 % of the time puCK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Minigun is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.38 % of the time Minigun wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.62 % of the time Minigun loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - ViBE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.03 % of the time ViBE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 49.97 % of the time ViBE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bails is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.97 % of the time Bails wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 50.03 % of the time Bails loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 88.49 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 11.51 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Schnitzel is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.51 % of the time Schnitzel wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 88.49 % of the time Schnitzel loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.85 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 36.15 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 0.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.15 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.78 %. ~ 63.85 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
Red Bull Detroit - Kane is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.46 % of the time Kane wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 46.54 % of the time Kane loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.54 % of the time Illusion wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 53.46 % of the time Illusion loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - CatZ is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.38 % of the time CatZ wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 42.62 % of the time CatZ loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bones is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.62 % of the time Bones wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.38 % of the time Bones loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - Snute is at ~ 20.6 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 81.32 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 24.07 %. ~ 18.68 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Moosegills is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 18.68 % of the time Moosegills wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 81.32 % of the time Moosegills loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.38 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 36.62 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 0.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.62 % of the time Revival wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.21 %. ~ 63.38 % of the time Revival loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Red Bull Detroit - qxc is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 68.95 % of the time qxc wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 31.05 % of the time qxc loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RuFF is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 31.05 % of the time RuFF wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 68.95 % of the time RuFF loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - Petraeus is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.28 % of the time Petraeus wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 38.72 % of the time Petraeus loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Gamja is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.72 % of the time Gamja wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 61.28 % of the time Gamja loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Detroit - Jaedong is at ~ 99.18 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.74 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.88 %. ~ 48.26 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 98.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SuperNova is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.26 % of the time SuperNova wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 51.74 % of the time SuperNova loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances Polt has a ~ 13.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa has a ~ 10.66 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 9.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 9.18 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 20.6 % to ~ 89.28 % HyuN has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +
StarDust has a ~ 7.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bunny has a ~ 6.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 25.31 % to ~ 82.22 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.18 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 4.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.17 % to ~ 80.16 % Trust has a ~ 4.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % SuperNova has a ~ 3.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.04 % Petraeus has a ~ 2.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % HuK has a ~ 2.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 16.15 % Kane has a ~ 1.82 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Revival has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 3.99 % Suppy has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Oz has a ~ 1.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.3 % to ~ 15.3 % Apocalypse has a ~ 1.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % puCK has a ~ 1.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.84 % qxc has a ~ 1.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Illusion has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % CatZ has a ~ 0.54 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bails has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Minigun has a ~ 0.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Gamja has a ~ 0.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ViBE has a ~ 0.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 68.68 % if they win, with a ~ 9.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 20.6 % to ~ 89.28 % viOLet would gain ~ 60.99 % if they win, with a ~ 4.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.17 % to ~ 80.16 % Bunny would gain ~ 56.9 % if they win, with a ~ 6.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 25.31 % to ~ 82.22 % Oz would gain ~ 15.01 % if they win, with a ~ 1.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.3 % to ~ 15.3 % HuK would gain ~ 13.66 % if they win, with a ~ 2.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.49 % to ~ 16.15 % + Show Spoiler [More Winning Gains] +
Revival would gain ~ 3.91 % if they win, with a ~ 1.7 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 3.99 % puCK would gain ~ 0.83 % if they win, with a ~ 1.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.84 % Jaedong would gain ~ 0.82 % if they win, with a ~ 4.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.18 % to ~ 100 % qxc would gain ~ 0.03 % if they win, with a ~ 1.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % SuperNova would gain ~ 0.03 % if they win, with a ~ 3.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.04 % Petraeus would gain ~ 0.03 % if they win, with a ~ 2.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Suppy would gain ~ 0.02 % if they win, with a ~ 1.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Trust would gain ~ 0.02 % if they win, with a ~ 4.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Apocalypse would gain ~ 0.02 % if they win, with a ~ 1.44 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Illusion would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Kane would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 1.82 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Bails would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Minigun would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Gamja would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % ViBE would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % CatZ would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.66 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
~ 24.93 % of the time Snute gets 8th in Red Bull Detroit. This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 20.6 % to ~ 13.24 % ------------------------------------------------- ~ 4.23 % of the time viOLet gets 2nd in Red Bull Detroit. This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.17 % to ~ 36.12 % ------------------------------------------------- ~ 9.18 % of the time Snute gets 1st in Red Bull Detroit. This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 60.78 % to ~ 44.99 % ------------------------------------------------- ~ 48.73 % of the time Bunny wins their next match in Red Bull Detroit ro32 (beating Hyun). This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 60.78 % to ~ 58.65 % ------------------------------------------------- ~ 51.27 % of the time HyuN wins their next match in Red Bull Detroit ro32 (beating Bunny). This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 60.78 % to ~ 62.79 % ------------------------------------------------- ~ 9.18 % of the time Snute gets 1st in Red Bull Detroit. This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.31 % to ~ 91.66 %
On August 22 2014 03:50 vinsang1000 wrote: I just discover your site (I saw the prediction last year). It's incredible, great work, cannot wait for Flash to qualify for Blizcon
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.02 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.57 % of the time 2,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 10.23 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 39.45 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 52.82 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 67.87 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 83.01 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 88.32 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 98.79 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners viOLet went up by ~ 19.26 %, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 30.5 % MMA went up by ~ 8.51 %, going from ~ 8.31 % to ~ 16.82 % Life went up by ~ 8.14 %, going from ~ 62.67 % to ~ 70.8 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 6.15 % to ~ 9.46 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.53 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
Flash went up by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 7.26 % Cure went up by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.74 %
Biggest Losers Bunny went down by ~ 13.79 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 14.74 % First went down by ~ 6.4 %, going from ~ 6.46 % to ~ 0.06 % Snute went down by ~ 4.16 %, going from ~ 16.14 % to ~ 11.98 % Scarlett went down by ~ 2.54 %, going from ~ 23.22 % to ~ 20.68 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.11 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 3.42 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.78 %, going from ~ 39.21 % to ~ 37.43 % Classic went down by ~ 1.49 %, going from ~ 65.97 % to ~ 64.48 % herO went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 45.97 % to ~ 44.64 % soO went down by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 61.84 % to ~ 60.7 % sOs went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 93.89 % to ~ 92.82 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.06 %, going from ~ 99.42 % to ~ 98.36 % Rain went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 32.91 % to ~ 31.95 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 10.6 % to ~ 9.82 % HerO went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 7.7 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 14.05 % to ~ 13.6 % Solar went down by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 8.04 % to ~ 7.63 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 5.6 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 95.51 % to ~ 95.15 % Heart went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 5.32 % to ~ 5.04 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 0.99 % Jim went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 1.03 % Golden went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.67 % to ~ 2.53 % Maru went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 9.12 % to ~ 9.01 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.02 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.57 % of the time 2,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 10.23 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 39.45 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 52.82 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 67.87 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 83.01 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 88.32 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 98.79 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners viOLet went up by ~ 19.26 %, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 30.5 % MMA went up by ~ 8.51 %, going from ~ 8.31 % to ~ 16.82 % Life went up by ~ 8.14 %, going from ~ 62.67 % to ~ 70.8 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 6.15 % to ~ 9.46 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.53 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
Flash went up by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 7.26 % Cure went up by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.74 %
Biggest Losers Bunny went down by ~ 13.79 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 14.74 % First went down by ~ 6.4 %, going from ~ 6.46 % to ~ 0.06 % Snute went down by ~ 4.16 %, going from ~ 16.14 % to ~ 11.98 % Scarlett went down by ~ 2.54 %, going from ~ 23.22 % to ~ 20.68 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.11 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 3.42 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.78 %, going from ~ 39.21 % to ~ 37.43 % Classic went down by ~ 1.49 %, going from ~ 65.97 % to ~ 64.48 % herO went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 45.97 % to ~ 44.64 % soO went down by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 61.84 % to ~ 60.7 % sOs went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 93.89 % to ~ 92.82 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.06 %, going from ~ 99.42 % to ~ 98.36 % Rain went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 32.91 % to ~ 31.95 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 10.6 % to ~ 9.82 % HerO went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 7.7 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 14.05 % to ~ 13.6 % Solar went down by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 8.04 % to ~ 7.63 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 5.6 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 95.51 % to ~ 95.15 % Heart went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 5.32 % to ~ 5.04 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 0.99 % Jim went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 1.03 % Golden went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.67 % to ~ 2.53 % Maru went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 9.12 % to ~ 9.01 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.02 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.57 % of the time 2,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 10.23 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 39.45 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 52.82 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 67.87 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 83.01 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 88.32 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 98.79 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners viOLet went up by ~ 19.26 %, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 30.5 % MMA went up by ~ 8.51 %, going from ~ 8.31 % to ~ 16.82 % Life went up by ~ 8.14 %, going from ~ 62.67 % to ~ 70.8 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 6.15 % to ~ 9.46 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.53 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
Flash went up by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 7.26 % Cure went up by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.74 %
Biggest Losers Bunny went down by ~ 13.79 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 14.74 % First went down by ~ 6.4 %, going from ~ 6.46 % to ~ 0.06 % Snute went down by ~ 4.16 %, going from ~ 16.14 % to ~ 11.98 % Scarlett went down by ~ 2.54 %, going from ~ 23.22 % to ~ 20.68 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.11 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 3.42 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.78 %, going from ~ 39.21 % to ~ 37.43 % Classic went down by ~ 1.49 %, going from ~ 65.97 % to ~ 64.48 % herO went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 45.97 % to ~ 44.64 % soO went down by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 61.84 % to ~ 60.7 % sOs went down by ~ 1.07 %, going from ~ 93.89 % to ~ 92.82 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.06 %, going from ~ 99.42 % to ~ 98.36 % Rain went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 32.91 % to ~ 31.95 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 10.6 % to ~ 9.82 % HerO went down by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 7.7 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 14.05 % to ~ 13.6 % Solar went down by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 8.04 % to ~ 7.63 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 5.6 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 95.51 % to ~ 95.15 % Heart went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 5.32 % to ~ 5.04 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 0.99 % Jim went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 1.03 % Golden went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.67 % to ~ 2.53 % Maru went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 9.12 % to ~ 9.01 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
Dang, that foreigner drop-off.
Yea I guess I should've mentioned that lol, was rushing cause I'm on vacation but w/e lol.
Chances of 1+ foreigners making it went from ~ 66.95 % yesterday down to ~ 53.79 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 19.63 % down to ~ 10.94 %
I'll be doing the GSL ro16 previews and Group of Death analysis tomorrow night (in about 24 hours)
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 26 5:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
WCS Point Cutoffs - I simplified the WCS Point Cutoffs view a bit. Now it only shows 7 different points: the highest points with 0% chances, the lowest points with better than 0% chances, 2500 points, the points closest to 50% chances, 3000 points, the highest points with less than 100% chances, and the lowest points with 100% chances. You can still click "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to show more. + Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.07 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.82 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 87.44 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners Since 4 Days Ago viOLet went up by ~ 17.85 %, going from ~ 11.23 % to ~ 29.08 % herO went up by ~ 10.02 %, going from ~ 45.97 % to ~ 55.99 % MMA went up by ~ 8.31 %, going from ~ 8.31 % to ~ 16.63 % Life went up by ~ 5.56 %, going from ~ 62.67 % to ~ 68.23 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.28 %, going from ~ 6.15 % to ~ 9.42 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 2.52 % Flash went up by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 6.05 % to ~ 7.24 % Cure went up by ~ 0.54 %, going from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.73 %
Biggest Losers Since 4 Days Ago Bunny went down by ~ 13.8 %, going from ~ 28.53 % to ~ 14.74 % First went down by ~ 6.4 %, going from ~ 6.46 % to ~ 0.06 % Snute went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 16.14 % to ~ 11.38 % Scarlett went down by ~ 2.89 %, going from ~ 23.22 % to ~ 20.33 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 2.35 %, going from ~ 39.21 % to ~ 36.86 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
MajOr went down by ~ 2.25 %, going from ~ 5.53 % to ~ 3.28 % Maru went down by ~ 1.96 %, going from ~ 9.12 % to ~ 7.17 % Classic went down by ~ 1.88 %, going from ~ 65.97 % to ~ 64.1 % soO went down by ~ 1.64 %, going from ~ 61.84 % to ~ 60.2 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.52 %, going from ~ 14.05 % to ~ 12.53 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 99.42 % to ~ 98.17 % sOs went down by ~ 1.25 %, going from ~ 93.89 % to ~ 92.64 % Rain went down by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 32.91 % to ~ 31.8 % HerO went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 8.24 % to ~ 7.44 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 10.6 % to ~ 9.82 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 95.51 % to ~ 94.76 % Heart went down by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 5.32 % to ~ 4.87 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 5.97 % to ~ 5.55 % Solar went down by ~ 0.4 %, going from ~ 8.04 % to ~ 7.64 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 1.21 % to ~ 0.98 % Jim went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 1.19 % to ~ 0.98 % HuK went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 2.05 % to ~ 1.89 % Golden went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 2.67 % to ~ 2.52 %
GSL S3 Code S - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 13.91 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 11.08 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 2.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.26 % of the time Soulkey wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.61 %. ~ 12.75 % of the time Soulkey loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.18 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.48 %. ~ 12.8 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.1 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.49 %. ~ 13.9 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 12.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.64 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 21.22 %. ~ 10.36 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PartinG is at ~ 9.82 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 13.42 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.86 %. ~ 11.56 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.53 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 7.16 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.67 % of the time Maru wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.91 %. ~ 12.33 % of the time Maru loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.14 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.11 % of the time Stats wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.32 %. ~ 13.89 % of the time Stats loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Rain is at ~ 31.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.87 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 43.39 %. ~ 10.13 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 14.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 92.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.2 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 97.49 %. ~ 10.81 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 86.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 7.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.77 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 14.83 %. ~ 12.23 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 9.65 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 15.34 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Flash is at ~ 7.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 13.58 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.76 %. ~ 11.4 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 60.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.64 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 79.27 %. ~ 13.35 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 43.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DongRaeGu is at ~ 2.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.55 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.43 %. ~ 13.46 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 2.75 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 10.41 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.56 %. ~ 14.6 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Soulkey has a ~ 5.25 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Reality has a ~ 3.15 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Zest has a ~ 9.11 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Cure has a ~ 4.74 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 22.2616
Group B Rain has a ~ 11.99 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S sOs has a ~ 9.72 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S EffOrt has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Solar has a ~ 6.63 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.1485
Group C PartinG has a ~ 7.69 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S INnoVation has a ~ 11.38 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Maru has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Stats has a ~ 3.38 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 28.4353
Group D DongRaeGu has a ~ 4.2 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Flash has a ~ 8.16 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S soO has a ~ 4.23 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S TRUE has a ~ 2.55 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 19.1546
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores B > C > A > D
Group A Soulkey is at ~ 2.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Reality is at ~ 0.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Cure is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.642
Group B Rain is at ~ 31.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 sOs is at ~ 92.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 EffOrt is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Solar is at ~ 7.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 132.129
Group C PartinG is at ~ 9.82 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 INnoVation is at ~ 12.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Maru is at ~ 7.16 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stats is at ~ 0.14 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 29.6558
Group D DongRaeGu is at ~ 2.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Flash is at ~ 7.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 soO is at ~ 60.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TRUE is at ~ 2.75 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 72.7052
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores B > A > D > C
Group A Soulkey's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Reality's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Zest's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Cure's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.00530617
Group B Rain's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % sOs's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.02 % EffOrt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Solar's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.0117416
Group C PartinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.03 % INnoVation's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Maru's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Stats's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.00244307
Group D DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Flash's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % soO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.03 % TRUE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.0104394
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores D > C > A > B
Group A When Soulkey wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.36 % When Soulkey loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.24 % When Reality wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.82 % When Reality loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.65 % When Zest wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Zest loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Cure wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.75 % When Cure loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.73 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 7.5537
Group B When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 11.58 % When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 16.94 % When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.84 % When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.36 % When EffOrt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.05 % When EffOrt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When Solar wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.19 % When Solar loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.49 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 54.476
Group C When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.05 % When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.28 % When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.69 % When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 12.31 % When Maru wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.75 % When Maru loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.97 % When Stats wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.17 % When Stats loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.14 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 52.3616
Group D When DongRaeGu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.91 % When DongRaeGu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.5 % When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.52 % When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.52 % When soO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 19.07 % When soO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 16.69 % When TRUE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.81 % When TRUE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.72 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 59.7334
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores D > B > C > A
Group A Soulkey has an overall Aligulac rating of 1938 Reality has an overall Aligulac rating of 1814 Zest has an overall Aligulac rating of 2030 Cure has an overall Aligulac rating of 1898 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7680
Group B Rain has an overall Aligulac rating of 2110 sOs has an overall Aligulac rating of 2049 EffOrt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1740 Solar has an overall Aligulac rating of 1988 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7887
Group C PartinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1989 INnoVation has an overall Aligulac rating of 2102 Maru has an overall Aligulac rating of 1944 Stats has an overall Aligulac rating of 1812 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7847
Group D DongRaeGu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1891 Flash has an overall Aligulac rating of 2014 soO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1894 TRUE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1797 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7596
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores B > C > A > D
Group A has a 2nd place, two 3 places, and a 4th place Group B has three 1st places, a 2nd place, and a 4th place Group C has three 2nd places, a 3rd place, and a 4th place Group D has two 1st places, a 3rd place, and two 4th places
Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Rain, sOs, EffOrt, and Solar! Group D is our 2nd place Group of Death with DongRaeGu, Flash, soO, and TRUE!
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Aug 26 11:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis Redo! Oops I messed up the previous one....REDO! Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
WCS Point Cutoffs - I simplified the WCS Point Cutoffs view a bit. Now it only shows 7 different points: the highest points with 0% chances, the lowest points with better than 0% chances, 2500 points, the points closest to 50% chances, 3000 points, the highest points with less than 100% chances, and the lowest points with 100% chances. You can still click "+ Show All Cutoffs +" to show more. + Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.95 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.39 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 86.68 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago herO went up by ~ 11.09 %, going from ~ 44.5 % to ~ 55.59 % Life went up by ~ 8.1 %, going from ~ 59.07 % to ~ 67.17 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.65 %, going from ~ 0.88 % to ~ 2.52 % Welmu went up by ~ 1.53 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 3.62 % soO went up by ~ 1.25 %, going from ~ 60.53 % to ~ 61.78 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Winners] +
TLO went up by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 1.78 % Rain went up by ~ 0.63 %, going from ~ 32.04 % to ~ 32.66 % Cure went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.73 % Solar went up by ~ 0.33 %, going from ~ 7.66 % to ~ 7.99 %
Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago Snute went down by ~ 10.83 %, going from ~ 22.01 % to ~ 11.18 % Scarlett went down by ~ 2.35 %, going from ~ 22.54 % to ~ 20.18 % Maru went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 9.17 % to ~ 6.91 % sOs went down by ~ 1.37 %, going from ~ 93.72 % to ~ 92.36 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 37.81 % to ~ 36.47 % + Show Spoiler [More Biggest Losers] +
viOLet went down by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 29.91 % to ~ 28.75 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.84 %, going from ~ 95.28 % to ~ 94.44 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 10.03 % to ~ 9.28 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 13.74 % to ~ 13.08 % Classic went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 64.18 % to ~ 63.56 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 10.2 % to ~ 9.68 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 15.29 % to ~ 14.78 % HerO went down by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 7.79 % to ~ 7.33 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 3.64 % to ~ 3.22 % Jaedong went down by ~ 0.39 %, going from ~ 98.43 % to ~ 98.04 % Heart went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 4.85 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 8.97 % to ~ 8.71 % HuK went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 2.06 % to ~ 1.87 % Soulkey went down by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 2.14 % to ~ 2.03 %
GSL S3 Code S - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.65 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 42.35 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.32 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.37 %. ~ 46.68 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Soulkey is at ~ 2.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.22 % of the time Soulkey wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.49 %. ~ 54.78 % of the time Soulkey loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.81 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.4 %. ~ 56.19 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 13.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.12 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 20.93 %. ~ 37.88 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PartinG is at ~ 9.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.83 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.87 %. ~ 47.17 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Maru is at ~ 6.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.52 % of the time Maru wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.76 %. ~ 50.48 % of the time Maru loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.19 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stats is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.53 % of the time Stats wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.34 %. ~ 64.47 % of the time Stats loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
GSL S3 Code S EffOrt has the #1 headband! sOs has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #1 headband! - Rain is at ~ 32.66 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.5 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 43.82 %. ~ 38.5 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 14.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 92.36 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.58 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 97.55 %. ~ 45.42 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 86.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 7.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.33 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.12 %. ~ 47.67 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - EffOrt is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 31.59 % of the time EffOrt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.08 %. ~ 68.41 % of the time EffOrt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
GSL S3 Code S - Flash is at ~ 7.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.25 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.22 %. ~ 42.75 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.71 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 61.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.94 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 78.71 %. ~ 48.06 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 43.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DongRaeGu is at ~ 2.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.74 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 5.37 %. ~ 53.26 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 2.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.07 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.15 %. ~ 55.93 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %.
Winning Chances Rain has a ~ 12.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 32.66 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 11.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.08 % to ~ 99.87 % sOs has a ~ 9.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.36 % to ~ 100 % Zest has a ~ 9.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 8.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.3 % to ~ 64.08 % + Show Spoiler [More Winning Chances] +
PartinG has a ~ 7.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.68 % to ~ 97.61 % Solar has a ~ 6.96 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 99.96 % Maru has a ~ 5.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.91 % to ~ 99.99 % Soulkey has a ~ 4.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.03 % to ~ 41.12 % Cure has a ~ 4.85 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 14.8 % soO has a ~ 4.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.78 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 4.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.52 % to ~ 56.55 % Reality has a ~ 3.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 17.97 % Stats has a ~ 2.9 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 4.19 % TRUE has a ~ 2.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 99.4 % EffOrt has a ~ 1.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 1.69 %
Winning Gains TRUE would gain ~ 96.68 % if they win, with a ~ 2.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 99.4 % Maru would gain ~ 93.08 % if they win, with a ~ 5.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.91 % to ~ 99.99 % Solar would gain ~ 91.97 % if they win, with a ~ 6.96 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 99.96 % PartinG would gain ~ 87.92 % if they win, with a ~ 7.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.68 % to ~ 97.61 % INnoVation would gain ~ 86.78 % if they win, with a ~ 11.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.08 % to ~ 99.87 % + Show Spoiler [More Winning Gains] +
Rain would gain ~ 67.34 % if they win, with a ~ 12.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 32.66 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 56.79 % if they win, with a ~ 8.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.3 % to ~ 64.08 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 54.03 % if they win, with a ~ 4.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.52 % to ~ 56.55 % Soulkey would gain ~ 39.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.03 % to ~ 41.12 % soO would gain ~ 38.22 % if they win, with a ~ 4.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 61.78 % to ~ 100 % Reality would gain ~ 17.34 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.62 % to ~ 17.97 % Cure would gain ~ 14.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.73 % to ~ 14.8 % sOs would gain ~ 7.64 % if they win, with a ~ 9.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 92.36 % to ~ 100 % Stats would gain ~ 4.07 % if they win, with a ~ 2.9 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 4.19 % EffOrt would gain ~ 1.66 % if they win, with a ~ 1.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 1.69 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. We will be looking at 5 different scores. Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together. Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing. Effects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group. Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
Group A Soulkey has a ~ 4.87 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Reality has a ~ 3.01 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Zest has a ~ 9.08 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Cure has a ~ 4.85 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 21.8036
Group B Rain has a ~ 12.69 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S sOs has a ~ 9.45 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S EffOrt has a ~ 1.57 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Solar has a ~ 6.96 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.6749
Group C PartinG has a ~ 7.6 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S INnoVation has a ~ 11.88 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Maru has a ~ 5.77 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Stats has a ~ 2.9 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 28.1467
Group D DongRaeGu has a ~ 4.19 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Flash has a ~ 8.24 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S soO has a ~ 4.42 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S TRUE has a ~ 2.53 % chance to win GSL S3 Code S Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 19.3749
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores B > C > A > D
Group A Soulkey is at ~ 2.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Reality is at ~ 0.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Cure is at ~ 0.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 103.387
Group B Rain is at ~ 32.66 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 sOs is at ~ 92.36 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 EffOrt is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Solar is at ~ 7.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 133.033
Group C PartinG is at ~ 9.68 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 INnoVation is at ~ 13.08 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Maru is at ~ 6.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Stats is at ~ 0.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 29.8007
Group D DongRaeGu is at ~ 2.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Flash is at ~ 7.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 soO is at ~ 61.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 TRUE is at ~ 2.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 74.3261
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores B > A > D > C
Group A Soulkey's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.18 % Reality's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.04 % Zest's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 % Cure's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.209437
Group B Rain's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.95 % sOs's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.23 % EffOrt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Solar's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.17 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.545097
Group C PartinG's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.06 % INnoVation's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.6 % Maru's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.22 % Stats's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.02 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -0.296031
Group D DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.03 % Flash's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.1 % soO's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 1.79 % TRUE's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -0.01 % Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -1.91951
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores A > C > B > D
Group A When Soulkey wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.46 % When Soulkey loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.03 % When Reality wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.78 % When Reality loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.61 % When Zest wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 % When Zest loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 % When Cure wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.64 % When Cure loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.73 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 7.24434
Group B When Rain wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 11.16 % When Rain loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 17.82 % When sOs wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 5.19 % When sOs loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.24 % When EffOrt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.06 % When EffOrt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.03 % When Solar wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.13 % When Solar loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.83 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 55.4508
Group C When PartinG wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.19 % When PartinG loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 9.17 % When INnoVation wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.85 % When INnoVation loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 12.87 % When Maru wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 6.85 % When Maru loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.72 % When Stats wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.22 % When Stats loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.12 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 51.9908
Group D When DongRaeGu wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.85 % When DongRaeGu loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.5 % When Flash wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.92 % When Flash loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.59 % When soO wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 16.93 % When soO loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 18.29 % When TRUE wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.42 % When TRUE loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.7 % Giving this match an Effects Score of 58.2083
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores D > B > C > A
Group A Soulkey has an overall Aligulac rating of 1938 Reality has an overall Aligulac rating of 1814 Zest has an overall Aligulac rating of 2030 Cure has an overall Aligulac rating of 1898 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7680
Group B Rain has an overall Aligulac rating of 2110 sOs has an overall Aligulac rating of 2049 EffOrt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1740 Solar has an overall Aligulac rating of 2006 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7905
Group C PartinG has an overall Aligulac rating of 1989 INnoVation has an overall Aligulac rating of 2102 Maru has an overall Aligulac rating of 1944 Stats has an overall Aligulac rating of 1812 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7847
Group D DongRaeGu has an overall Aligulac rating of 1891 Flash has an overall Aligulac rating of 2014 soO has an overall Aligulac rating of 1894 TRUE has an overall Aligulac rating of 1797 Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7596
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores B > C > A > D
Group A has a 1st place, a 2nd place, two 3rd places, and a 4th place Group B has three 1st places, a 2nd place, and a 3rd place Group C has three 2nd places, a 3rd place, and a 4th place Group D has a 1st place, a 3rd place, and three 4th places
Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Rain, sOs, EffOrt, and Solar! Group A is our NEW 2nd place Group of Death with Zest, Soulkey, Reality, and Cure!
Just set the brackets for KeSPA Cup. Here is the new top 25 and the biggest winners and losers from that change. Waiting on the schedule to post the match previews. Rain took Pigbaby's #16 spot!
Top 25 By Blizzcon Chances
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
Biggest Winners herO went up by ~ 8.4 %, going from ~ 55.88 % to ~ 64.28 % Classic went up by ~ 5.31 %, going from ~ 64.06 % to ~ 69.38 % soO went up by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 62.17 % to ~ 63.93 % sOs went up by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 92.39 % to ~ 93.28 % Cure went up by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 1.31 % to ~ 1.57 %
Biggest Losers Pigbaby went down by ~ 5.86 %, going from ~ 36.8 % to ~ 30.94 % Life went down by ~ 2.67 %, going from ~ 67.68 % to ~ 65.01 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 29.04 % to ~ 28.05 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 94.56 % to ~ 93.69 % Rain went down by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 31.92 % to ~ 31.14 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Snute went down by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 11.36 % to ~ 10.84 % Flash went down by ~ 0.49 %, going from ~ 7.19 % to ~ 6.7 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.49 %, going from ~ 20.29 % to ~ 19.8 % MMA went down by ~ 0.48 %, going from ~ 16.28 % to ~ 15.79 % Jaedong went down by ~ 0.4 %, going from ~ 98.09 % to ~ 97.69 % Solar went down by ~ 0.4 %, going from ~ 8.14 % to ~ 7.74 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 9.39 % to ~ 9.04 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 9.47 % to ~ 9.16 % HerO went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 7.43 % to ~ 7.14 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 14.81 % to ~ 14.54 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 12.78 % to ~ 12.51 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 3.06 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 2.52 % to ~ 2.37 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 2.5 % Maru went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 6.62 %
Winning Chances Zest has a ~ 13.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 11.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 31.14 % to ~ 98.8 % herO has a ~ 11.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.28 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 10.97 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.28 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 8.94 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Flash has a ~ 8.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.7 % to ~ 26.83 % StarDust has a ~ 6.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 5.42 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 5.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.38 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 4.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 63.92 % to ~ 100 % ByuL has a ~ 3.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.27 % Super has a ~ 2.93 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.13 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 30.94 % to ~ 100 % Rogue has a ~ 2.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.61 % Reality has a ~ 2.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.29 % Sorry has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
Winning Gains Pigbaby would gain ~ 69.06 % if they win, with a ~ 2.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.94 % to ~ 100 % Rain would gain ~ 67.66 % if they win, with a ~ 11.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 31.14 % to ~ 98.8 % soO would gain ~ 36.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.92 % to ~ 100 % herO would gain ~ 35.72 % if they win, with a ~ 11.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 64.28 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 30.62 % if they win, with a ~ 5.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 69.38 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Flash would gain ~ 20.13 % if they win, with a ~ 8.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.7 % to ~ 26.83 % sOs would gain ~ 6.72 % if they win, with a ~ 10.97 % chance to win, going from ~ 93.28 % to ~ 100 % Rogue would gain ~ 1.57 % if they win, with a ~ 2.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.04 % to ~ 1.61 % Reality would gain ~ 0.29 % if they win, with a ~ 2.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.29 % ByuL would gain ~ 0.26 % if they win, with a ~ 3.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.27 % Super would gain ~ 0.12 % if they win, with a ~ 2.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.13 % Sorry would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Bomber would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 5.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.94 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
I just added negative events, so you can see what happens when a player doesn't get 1st place in a tournament for example. Check out Life's page to see it in action, you can use the search filters negative and position for this. http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=3
I also added the exact numbers under the percent chances on the player pages.
Kespa Cup wont really matter for Bomber, San, Zest and Stardust since they're guaranteed. Ditto for Super, Reality, Rogue, Sorry, and Byul since they are too far down the points list.
On August 29 2014 03:30 asongdotnet wrote: Kespa Cup wont really matter for Bomber, San, Zest and Stardust since they're guaranteed. Ditto for Super, Reality, Rogue, Sorry, and Byul since they are too far down the points list.
yea pretty much, although it's huge for Pigbaby, Rain, soO, herO, Classic, and Flash
Biggest Winners Life went up by ~ 30.89 %, going from ~ 65.15 % to ~ 96.04 % Snute went up by ~ 15.21 %, going from ~ 11.22 % to ~ 26.43 % viOLet went up by ~ 6.94 %, going from ~ 28.04 % to ~ 34.98 % Flash went up by ~ 3.66 %, going from ~ 6.71 % to ~ 10.37 % YoDa went up by ~ 2.99 %, going from ~ 9.04 % to ~ 12.03 %
Biggest Losers herO went down by ~ 17.51 %, going from ~ 64.5 % to ~ 46.99 % sOs went down by ~ 8.98 %, going from ~ 93.34 % to ~ 84.35 % Scarlett went down by ~ 5.84 %, going from ~ 19.79 % to ~ 13.95 % soO went down by ~ 4.28 %, going from ~ 63.94 % to ~ 59.67 % Jaedong went down by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 97.7 % to ~ 94.02 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
jjakji went down by ~ 3.58 %, going from ~ 93.71 % to ~ 90.13 % Classic went down by ~ 2.95 %, going from ~ 69.44 % to ~ 66.49 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 2.56 %, going from ~ 30.99 % to ~ 28.44 % MMA went down by ~ 2.39 %, going from ~ 15.05 % to ~ 12.66 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.8 %, going from ~ 14.58 % to ~ 12.78 % Rain went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 31.2 % to ~ 29.88 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 9.19 % to ~ 8.4 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 3.07 % to ~ 2.51 % HerO went down by ~ 0.47 %, going from ~ 7.15 % to ~ 6.68 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 12.56 % to ~ 12.15 % Maru went down by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 6.63 % to ~ 6.31 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 0.93 % to ~ 0.7 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 8.59 % to ~ 8.4 % HuK went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 1.65 % Cure went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 1.58 % to ~ 1.39 % Heart went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 4.79 % to ~ 4.61 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 2.38 % to ~ 2.21 % Jim went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.92 % to ~ 0.78 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 2.36 % Solar went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 7.25 % to ~ 7.12 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 5.51 % to ~ 5.39 %
IEM Toronto - TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.08 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 37.92 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - viOLet is at ~ 34.97 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 37.92 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 46.61 %. ~ 62.08 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 27.85 %.
IEM Toronto - Life is at ~ 96.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.7 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.29 %. ~ 46.3 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 92.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - First is at ~ 0.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.3 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.11 %. ~ 53.7 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
IEM Toronto - YoDa is at ~ 12.05 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.23 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 14.96 %. ~ 46.77 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 8.74 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.77 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 53.23 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
IEM Toronto - Flash is at ~ 10.37 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.16 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.58 %. ~ 39.84 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 7.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 26.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.84 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 44.68 %. ~ 60.16 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 14.3 %.
Winning Chances TaeJa has a ~ 18.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 16.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.36 % to ~ 16.92 % YoDa has a ~ 16.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.04 % to ~ 17.59 % Zest has a ~ 13.27 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 11.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.04 % to ~ 99.99 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
First has a ~ 8.73 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.29 % Snute has a ~ 7.78 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 93.7 % viOLet has a ~ 6.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 34.96 % to ~ 78.25 %
Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 67.28 % if they win, with a ~ 7.78 % chance to win, going from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 93.7 % viOLet would gain ~ 43.29 % if they win, with a ~ 6.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 34.96 % to ~ 78.25 % Flash would gain ~ 6.56 % if they win, with a ~ 16.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.36 % to ~ 16.92 % YoDa would gain ~ 5.56 % if they win, with a ~ 16.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.04 % to ~ 17.59 % Life would gain ~ 3.96 % if they win, with a ~ 11.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 96.04 % to ~ 99.99 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
First would gain ~ 0.23 % if they win, with a ~ 8.73 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.06 % to ~ 0.29 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 18.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
~ 9.88 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 46.76 %
~ 9.3 % of the time viOLet gets 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 34.94 % to ~ 48.79 %
~ 28.08 % of the time Flash gets 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 14.25 %
~ 92.22 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 20.74 %
~ 71.92 % of the time Flash doesn't get 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 31.16 %
~ 27.75 % of the time TaeJa gets 4th in IEM Toronto This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 34.94 % to ~ 27.36 %
~ 15.39 % of the time Flash gets 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 14.51 %
~ 4.29 % of the time Snute gets 1st in IEM Toronto TaeJa gets 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 93.82 %
~ 93.35 % of the time viOLet doesn't get 1st in IEM Toronto This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 34.94 % to ~ 31.86 %
~ 43.47 % of the time Flash gets 2nd or 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 14.34 %
~ 27.75 % of the time TaeJa gets 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 33.25 %
~ 56.53 % of the time Flash doesn't get 2nd or 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 35.7 %
~ 3.49 % of the time Snute gets 1st in IEM Toronto viOLet gets 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 93.57 %
~ 90.12 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.41 % to ~ 24.18 %
~ 13.6 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.03 % to ~ 15.79 %
~ 11.58 % of the time Life gets 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.04 % to ~ 99.9 %
~ 83.31 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in IEM Toronto This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.36 % to ~ 9.05 %
~ 72.25 % of the time TaeJa doesn't get 4th in IEM Toronto This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 34.94 % to ~ 37.85 %
~ 90.7 % of the time viOLet doesn't get 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 34.94 % to ~ 33.52 %
~ 83.57 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 1st in IEM Toronto This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.03 % to ~ 10.94 %
On August 31 2014 03:31 The_Templar wrote: viOLet should 10 pool
10 pool all the way to Blizzcon, and the Blizzcon trophy! btw the schedule has been changed on liquipedia, looks like all quarterfinals will be played today
On August 31 2014 03:31 The_Templar wrote: viOLet should 10 pool
10 pool all the way to Blizzcon, and the Blizzcon trophy! btw the schedule has been changed on liquipedia, looks like all quarterfinals will be played today
I posted in the wrong thread But 10 pool is endorsed by the #1 blizzcon 2013 seed against Naniwa so it's still ok
On August 31 2014 04:47 The_Templar wrote: I would like TaeJa to be the #1 seed, this is still possible right? Is it possible to calculate the probability of this?
Taeja's mnimum WCS Points is 4875, maximum WCS Points is 9550 http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=6 Hyun's minimum is 5625 and his median is 5925 so it's very possible for Taeja to get the #1 seed
so I just added a new feature, look on the home page in the section called "Final Seed Stats", here's what it says right now
Bomber has a ~ 33.58 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 32.06 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 31.27 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 24.99 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 24.59 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HyuN has a ~ 23.36 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 21.69 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 21.65 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 20.72 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 20.49 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 18.87 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 18.71 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 18.56 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 18.07 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 18.06 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 17.9 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 17.58 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 17.45 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 16.87 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 16.8 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 15.8 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.67 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 15.27 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 15.01 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 14.79 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 14.33 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 14.31 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 14.15 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 14.06 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 13.73 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 13.72 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 13.52 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 13.38 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 13.17 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 13.13 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 12.98 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 12.94 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.72 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 12.52 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 12.46 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 12.39 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 12.38 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 12.02 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 11.65 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 11.55 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 11.55 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 11.34 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.3 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 11.3 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.06 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 11.02 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.85 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 10.78 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.72 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.59 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.48 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 10.32 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 10.27 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 10.1 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 9.98 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 9.97 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 9.96 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 9.91 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 9.85 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 9.68 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 9.48 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 9.48 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 9.15 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 9.02 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 8.63 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 8.56 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 8.52 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 8.46 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 8.42 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 8.39 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 8.06 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 7.83 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 7.75 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 7.35 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 7.25 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 7.2 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.98 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.75 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 6.71 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.56 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 6.52 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.49 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 6.48 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.47 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 6.41 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 6.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 6.29 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 6.29 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 6.28 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.27 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.23 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 6.11 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.08 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 5.73 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.68 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 5.46 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.44 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 5.35 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.33 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 5.27 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 5.14 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 5.09 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 5.08 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 4.99 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 4.96 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 4.49 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 4.45 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 4.44 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 4.42 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 4.4 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 4.36 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 4.3 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.9 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.75 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 3.72 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 3.68 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 3.6 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.57 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 3.5 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 3.38 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 3.38 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 3.38 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 3.35 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 3.28 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 3.03 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 3.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 2.92 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.82 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 2.81 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.79 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 2.78 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 2.75 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 2.69 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.63 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.62 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 2.61 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.6 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 2.59 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.56 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.51 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.48 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.38 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 2.37 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.36 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.35 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 2.34 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.27 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 2.25 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.25 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 2.21 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 2.21 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 2.18 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.13 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 2.1 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.06 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 2.05 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.96 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 1.93 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.92 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.89 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.89 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.86 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.8 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.79 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.78 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.75 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.71 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.68 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.68 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.66 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.64 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 1.63 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.61 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.59 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.58 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 1.57 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 1.56 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.56 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.53 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.53 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.52 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 1.51 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.47 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.47 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.45 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.45 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.43 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 1.43 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.42 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 1.41 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.38 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 1.37 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.36 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.33 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.3 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.28 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 1.26 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.24 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.21 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.2 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.2 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.19 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.17 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 1.16 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.15 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.14 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 1.1 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 1.1 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.09 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 1.06 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.03 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.02 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.01 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.01 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.99 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.99 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.99 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.98 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 0.97 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.96 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.96 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.93 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.93 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.93 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.92 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 0.9 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.88 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.87 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.86 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.82 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.82 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.82 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 0.81 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 0.8 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.8 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.8 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.79 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.79 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 0.73 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.7 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.7 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.68 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.68 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.67 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 0.66 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.65 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.63 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.62 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.62 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.59 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.58 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.58 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.57 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.56 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.56 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 0.54 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.54 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.53 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.53 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.51 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.49 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.47 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 0.46 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.45 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.44 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.44 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.44 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.44 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 0.44 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.43 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.43 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 0.42 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.41 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.41 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.41 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.4 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.4 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.39 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.39 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.37 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.37 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.36 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.36 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.36 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.36 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.35 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.34 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.34 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.34 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.34 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.33 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.33 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.32 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.32 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.3 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.29 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.28 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.27 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.27 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.27 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.25 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 0.25 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.25 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.25 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.23 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.23 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.2 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.19 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.19 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.18 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.18 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.16 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 0.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.16 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.15 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.14 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.14 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.14 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.14 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.13 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.13 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 0.13 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 0.12 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.12 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.12 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.12 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Trap has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Dear has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Stats has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Trap has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Dear has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Stats has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Trap has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Grubby has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Dear has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Stats has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Rogue has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. First has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Grubby has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Rogue has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon.
~ 16.6 % chance to see Life vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.76 % chance to see Life vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.61 % chance to see Life vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.26 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.06 % chance to see TaeJa vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 12.94 % chance to see Bomber vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.69 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.51 % chance to see Life vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.44 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.11 % chance to see sOs vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.99 % chance to see HyuN vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.47 % chance to see Jaedong vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.44 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.24 % chance to see jjakji vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.11 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.9 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.87 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.87 % chance to see San vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.64 % chance to see jjakji vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.41 % chance to see HyuN vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.88 % chance to see Life vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.82 % chance to see Bomber vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.48 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.35 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.01 % chance to see San vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.94 % chance to see Life vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.94 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.93 % chance to see Polt vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.9 % chance to see MC vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.86 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.72 % chance to see HyuN vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.67 % chance to see sOs vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.5 % chance to see San vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.38 % chance to see Polt vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.23 % chance to see MC vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.22 % chance to see Life vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.14 % chance to see StarDust vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.05 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.9 % chance to see HyuN vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.79 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.35 % chance to see TaeJa vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.32 % chance to see soO vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.19 % chance to see Polt vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.07 % chance to see MC vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.97 % chance to see San vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.81 % chance to see Classic vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.63 % chance to see soO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.37 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.34 % chance to see HyuN vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.21 % chance to see Bomber vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.67 % chance to see StarDust vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.65 % chance to see herO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.6 % chance to see Polt vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.59 % chance to see San vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.51 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.27 % chance to see Bomber vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.81 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.75 % chance to see MC vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.67 % chance to see viOLet vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.4 % chance to see Rain vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.36 % chance to see Rain vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.93 % chance to see TaeJa vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.71 % chance to see TaeJa vs viOLet as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.52 % chance to see Polt vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.52 % chance to see Rain vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.51 % chance to see San vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.4 % chance to see Rain vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.39 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.34 % chance to see viOLet vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.32 % chance to see Rain vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.21 % chance to see viOLet vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.11 % chance to see Bomber vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.11 % chance to see viOLet vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.04 % chance to see MC vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.03 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.03 % chance to see viOLet vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.03 % chance to see viOLet vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.99 % chance to see Rain vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.98 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.97 % chance to see Zest vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.85 % chance to see TaeJa vs Rain as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.69 % chance to see viOLet vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.56 % chance to see Rain vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.46 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.26 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.06 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.04 % chance to see Bomber vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.98 % chance to see HyuN vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.97 % chance to see Bomber vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.97 % chance to see San vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.92 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.92 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.9 % chance to see TaeJa vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.89 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.89 % chance to see Polt vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.87 % chance to see jjakji vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.85 % chance to see Snute vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.83 % chance to see TaeJa vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.81 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.8 % chance to see San vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.8 % chance to see MMA vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.79 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.77 % chance to see MMA vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.76 % chance to see Zest vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.71 % chance to see TaeJa vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.71 % chance to see Scarlett vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.7 % chance to see Scarlett vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.69 % chance to see MC vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.68 % chance to see Flash vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.68 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.67 % chance to see MC vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.66 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.66 % chance to see Polt vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.66 % chance to see INnoVation vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.62 % chance to see TaeJa vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.62 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.61 % chance to see Polt vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.6 % chance to see Polt vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.58 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.57 % chance to see San vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.53 % chance to see MC vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.52 % chance to see Jaedong vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.49 % chance to see INnoVation vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.48 % chance to see YoDa vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.48 % chance to see Polt vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.43 % chance to see HyuN vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.43 % chance to see HyuN vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.42 % chance to see MC vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.41 % chance to see San vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.39 % chance to see Flash vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.38 % chance to see San vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.38 % chance to see Life vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.34 % chance to see ForGG vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.31 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.3 % chance to see Bomber vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.3 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.22 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.2 % chance to see ForGG vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.19 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.15 % chance to see Snute vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.14 % chance to see YoDa vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.08 % chance to see PartinG vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.08 % chance to see PartinG vs TaeJa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.07 % chance to see MMA vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.06 % chance to see PartinG vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.06 % chance to see PartinG vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.99 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.99 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.77 % chance to see MC vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.75 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.75 % chance to see PartinG vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.71 % chance to see sOs vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.67 % chance to see Polt vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.65 % chance to see MC vs VortiX as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.37 % chance to see Polt vs ForGG as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.35 % chance to see PartinG vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.34 % chance to see StarDust vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.34 % chance to see ForGG vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.33 % chance to see MC vs Maru as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.32 % chance to see PartinG vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.32 % chance to see San vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.31 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.3 % chance to see HerO vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.3 % chance to see HerO vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.28 % chance to see Maru vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.28 % chance to see HyuN vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.27 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO as a first match at Blizzcon.
Biggest Winners Life went up by ~ 34.26 %, going from ~ 65.15 % to ~ 99.41 % Flash went up by ~ 6.89 %, going from ~ 6.71 % to ~ 13.6 % Snute went up by ~ 3.44 %, going from ~ 11.22 % to ~ 14.66 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.32 %, going from ~ 9.04 % to ~ 12.37 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 28.04 % to ~ 28.29 %
Biggest Losers herO went down by ~ 15.72 %, going from ~ 64.5 % to ~ 48.78 % sOs went down by ~ 8.85 %, going from ~ 93.34 % to ~ 84.49 % Scarlett went down by ~ 5.56 %, going from ~ 19.79 % to ~ 14.23 % Jaedong went down by ~ 3.21 %, going from ~ 97.7 % to ~ 94.48 % soO went down by ~ 2.67 %, going from ~ 63.94 % to ~ 61.28 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
jjakji went down by ~ 2.38 %, going from ~ 93.71 % to ~ 91.34 % MMA went down by ~ 1.9 %, going from ~ 15.05 % to ~ 13.15 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.5 %, going from ~ 14.58 % to ~ 13.08 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 30.99 % to ~ 29.67 % Classic went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 69.44 % to ~ 68.41 % Rain went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 31.2 % to ~ 30.33 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.61 %, going from ~ 9.19 % to ~ 8.58 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 12.56 % to ~ 12.14 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.39 %, going from ~ 3.07 % to ~ 2.68 % Maru went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 6.63 % to ~ 6.4 % Heart went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 4.79 % to ~ 4.59 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.93 % to ~ 0.78 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 2.37 % HuK went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 1.72 % Solar went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 7.25 % to ~ 7.13 % HerO went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 7.15 % to ~ 7.04 %
Flash now has the #2 Headband after beating Snute!
IEM Toronto - YoDa is at ~ 12.37 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.23 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.12 %. ~ 46.77 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 9.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.77 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 53.23 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
IEM Toronto Flash has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.89 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 49.11 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Flash is at ~ 13.6 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.11 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.13 %. ~ 50.89 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 11.16 %.
Winning Chances TaeJa has a ~ 27.18 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 25.82 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.6 % to ~ 18.3 % Life has a ~ 20.27 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.41 % to ~ 99.99 % YoDa has a ~ 14.96 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.37 % to ~ 17.5 % Zest has a ~ 11.78 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Winning Gains YoDa would gain ~ 5.13 % if they win, with a ~ 14.96 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.37 % to ~ 17.5 % Flash would gain ~ 4.69 % if they win, with a ~ 25.82 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.6 % to ~ 18.3 % Life would gain ~ 0.59 % if they win, with a ~ 20.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.41 % to ~ 99.99 % TaeJa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 27.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 11.78 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Foreign Hopes Chances of 1+ foreigners making it to Blizzcon is at ~ 51.01 % Chances of 2+ foreigners making it to Blizzcon is at ~ 9.27 %
Snute ~ 9.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 14.66 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 9.49 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 14.23 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 9.27 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.08 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 3.79 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.43 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 2.52 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.62 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
MajOr ~ 1.83 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.68 % chance overall. TLO ~ 1.36 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.96 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.14 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.72 % chance overall. Jim ~ 0.61 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.9 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.56 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.78 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.39 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.56 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.36 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.51 % chance overall. Nerchio ~ 0.34 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.47 % chance overall. Grubby ~ 0.03 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.04 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. BlinG ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. iaguz ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Bly ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Kas ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. neeb ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Serral ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. KrasS ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. puCK ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. TooDming ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Stephano ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Has ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances for Seedings Final Seed Stats
Bomber has a ~ 33.57 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 32.08 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 31.28 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 24.97 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 24.56 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HyuN has a ~ 23.35 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 21.7 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 21.68 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 20.75 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 20.45 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 18.91 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 18.63 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 18.56 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 18.1 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 18.06 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 17.96 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 17.56 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 17.49 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 16.92 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 16.78 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 15.84 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.74 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 15.28 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 14.92 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 14.73 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 14.3 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 14.28 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 14.12 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 14.12 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 13.71 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 13.7 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 13.56 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 13.38 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 13.14 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 13.11 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 13.05 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 12.93 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.7 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 12.52 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 12.45 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 12.4 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 12.39 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 12.05 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 11.68 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 11.57 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 11.56 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.31 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 11.29 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 11.29 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 11.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.05 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.85 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 10.76 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.72 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.59 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.5 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 10.34 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 10.26 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 10.11 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 9.98 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 9.97 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 9.93 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 9.9 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 9.84 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 9.65 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 9.51 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 9.48 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 9.18 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 9.01 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 8.62 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 8.57 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 8.53 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 8.47 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 8.43 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 8.43 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 8.05 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 7.87 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 7.78 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 7.34 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 7.25 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 7.21 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.96 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.79 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 6.75 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.56 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.51 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 6.5 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 6.48 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.43 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 6.42 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 6.36 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 6.27 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 6.27 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.25 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 6.25 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.23 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 6.15 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.03 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 5.73 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.67 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 5.47 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.41 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 5.37 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.3 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 5.25 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.17 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 5.11 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 5.1 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 5.06 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 4.99 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 4.94 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 4.46 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 4.45 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 4.43 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 4.4 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 4.4 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 4.35 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 4.28 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.91 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.77 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 3.69 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 3.67 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 3.62 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.57 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 3.51 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 3.39 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 3.37 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 3.35 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 3.35 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 3.25 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 3.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 3.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 2.92 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 2.81 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.8 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.8 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 2.78 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 2.73 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 2.66 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.65 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 2.64 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.6 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.6 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 2.59 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.58 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.51 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.47 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.4 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 2.36 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.35 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.34 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 2.33 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 2.27 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.26 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.24 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 2.23 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 2.21 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 2.19 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.13 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 2.08 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 2.06 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.05 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.96 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 1.93 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.92 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.9 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.88 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.87 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.8 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.79 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.77 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.72 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.71 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.68 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.68 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.67 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.66 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 1.63 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.6 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.59 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.59 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 1.56 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 1.56 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.54 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.53 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.53 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.53 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 1.52 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.47 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.47 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.47 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.44 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.43 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 1.42 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.4 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 1.39 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 1.36 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.36 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.36 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.35 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.28 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.26 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.26 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 1.25 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.23 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.2 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.19 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.18 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 1.16 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.16 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.14 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 1.09 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 1.09 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.08 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 1.07 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.02 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.02 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.02 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.01 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.99 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.99 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.98 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.98 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.97 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.96 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 0.96 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.94 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.93 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.92 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.92 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 0.91 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.88 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.87 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.87 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.83 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 0.82 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.82 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.82 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.81 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 0.8 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.8 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.8 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.8 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 0.74 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.71 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.7 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.7 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.69 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.67 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.66 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 0.65 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.62 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.62 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.62 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.59 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.59 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.58 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.57 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.57 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.55 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.54 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.54 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 0.53 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.53 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.52 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 0.51 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.51 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 0.5 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.49 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 0.47 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.47 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.46 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.45 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.45 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.45 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 0.44 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.43 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.43 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.42 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 0.42 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.42 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.41 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.4 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.4 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.4 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.39 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 0.38 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.37 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 0.37 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.37 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.37 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.36 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.36 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.34 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.34 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.34 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.33 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.33 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.33 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.33 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.32 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.32 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.31 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.29 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.28 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.28 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.27 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.27 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 0.26 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.26 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.25 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.23 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.22 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 0.21 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.2 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.19 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.18 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.18 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.17 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.16 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.16 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 0.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.16 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.15 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.14 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.14 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.14 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 0.13 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.13 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.13 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 0.12 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.12 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.12 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.12 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.11 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.1 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 0.09 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.08 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 0.08 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Trap has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. DongRaeGu has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TRUE has a ~ 0.07 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 0.06 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Dear has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Golden has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.05 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. TLO has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Trap has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Stats has a ~ 0.04 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Dear has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Stats has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.03 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Cure has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jim has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Dayshi has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Grubby has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Trap has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Dear has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Stats has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Rogue has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. HuK has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MaNa has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Happy has a ~ 0.02 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. First has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Check has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Trap has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Nerchio has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Rogue has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Welmu has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Grubby has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 0.01 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon.
Chances for First Blizzcon Matches ~ 16.55 % chance to see Life vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.77 % chance to see Life vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.65 % chance to see Life vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.27 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.07 % chance to see TaeJa vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 12.98 % chance to see Bomber vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.66 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.51 % chance to see Life vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.46 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.08 % chance to see sOs vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.96 % chance to see HyuN vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.47 % chance to see Jaedong vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.46 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.21 % chance to see jjakji vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.12 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.97 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.86 % chance to see San vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.84 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.66 % chance to see jjakji vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.41 % chance to see HyuN vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.89 % chance to see Life vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.82 % chance to see Bomber vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.47 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.31 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.01 % chance to see San vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.96 % chance to see Polt vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.95 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.94 % chance to see Life vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.91 % chance to see MC vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.88 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.74 % chance to see HyuN vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.69 % chance to see sOs vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.48 % chance to see San vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.36 % chance to see Polt vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.25 % chance to see MC vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.21 % chance to see Life vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.15 % chance to see StarDust vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.01 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.92 % chance to see HyuN vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.81 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.31 % chance to see TaeJa vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.25 % chance to see soO vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.2 % chance to see Polt vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.06 % chance to see MC vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.98 % chance to see San vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.84 % chance to see Classic vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.62 % chance to see soO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.38 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.33 % chance to see HyuN vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.23 % chance to see Bomber vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.66 % chance to see StarDust vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.65 % chance to see herO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.62 % chance to see San vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.59 % chance to see Polt vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.5 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.27 % chance to see Bomber vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.82 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.76 % chance to see MC vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.67 % chance to see viOLet vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.41 % chance to see Rain vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.35 % chance to see Rain vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.92 % chance to see TaeJa vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.74 % chance to see TaeJa vs viOLet as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.51 % chance to see San vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.51 % chance to see Rain vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.5 % chance to see Polt vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.4 % chance to see Rain vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.37 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.34 % chance to see viOLet vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.32 % chance to see Rain vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.19 % chance to see viOLet vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.11 % chance to see Bomber vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.1 % chance to see viOLet vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.06 % chance to see MC vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.06 % chance to see viOLet vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.06 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.01 % chance to see Rain vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.99 % chance to see viOLet vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.97 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.95 % chance to see Zest vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.86 % chance to see TaeJa vs Rain as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.68 % chance to see viOLet vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.56 % chance to see Rain vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.47 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.25 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.06 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.04 % chance to see Bomber vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.97 % chance to see HyuN vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.97 % chance to see San vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.95 % chance to see Bomber vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.92 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.91 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.9 % chance to see TaeJa vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.89 % chance to see Polt vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.88 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.88 % chance to see jjakji vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.85 % chance to see Snute vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.84 % chance to see TaeJa vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.82 % chance to see San vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.8 % chance to see MMA vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.8 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.79 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.77 % chance to see MMA vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.75 % chance to see Zest vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.73 % chance to see TaeJa vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.69 % chance to see Scarlett vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.69 % chance to see Scarlett vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.69 % chance to see MC vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.68 % chance to see MC vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.68 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.68 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.67 % chance to see INnoVation vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.67 % chance to see Flash vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.66 % chance to see Polt vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.63 % chance to see Polt vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.62 % chance to see TaeJa vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.62 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.59 % chance to see Polt vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.58 % chance to see San vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.57 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.53 % chance to see MC vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.52 % chance to see Jaedong vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.49 % chance to see INnoVation vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.48 % chance to see YoDa vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.47 % chance to see Polt vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.45 % chance to see HyuN vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.44 % chance to see HyuN vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.42 % chance to see MC vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.4 % chance to see San vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.4 % chance to see San vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.38 % chance to see Flash vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.37 % chance to see Life vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.34 % chance to see ForGG vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.29 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.29 % chance to see Bomber vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.2 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.19 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.14 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.09 % chance to see ForGG vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.05 % chance to see MC vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.04 % chance to see Snute vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.03 % chance to see YoDa vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.99 % chance to see PartinG vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.96 % chance to see sOs vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.88 % chance to see MMA vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.84 % chance to see PartinG vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.82 % chance to see PartinG vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.77 % chance to see PartinG vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.71 % chance to see Polt vs ForGG as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.68 % chance to see PartinG vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.64 % chance to see Polt vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.64 % chance to see ForGG vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.59 % chance to see PartinG vs TaeJa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.54 % chance to see MC vs Maru as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.54 % chance to see PartinG vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.51 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.46 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.44 % chance to see MC vs VortiX as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.37 % chance to see StarDust vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.36 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.35 % chance to see San vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.25 % chance to see HerO vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.24 % chance to see HerO vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.09 % chance to see Polt vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.08 % chance to see Maru vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.08 % chance to see Polt vs Maru as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.08 % chance to see HerO vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.08 % chance to see Maru vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.08 % chance to see VortiX vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.07 % chance to see HyuN vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.07 % chance to see Bomber vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.07 % chance to see Zest vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.07 % chance to see Maru vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon.
Current Top 25 Chances
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 12.14 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
Events for IEM Toronto ~ 74.17 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in IEM Toronto This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.57 % to ~ 11.94 %
~ 15.49 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.38 % to ~ 15.86 %
~ 85.06 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 1st in IEM Toronto This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.38 % to ~ 11.47 %
~ 84.51 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.38 % to ~ 11.74 %
~ 23.22 % of the time Life gets 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.92 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 76.78 % of the time Life doesn't get 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.25 %
~ 79.71 % of the time Life doesn't get 1st in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.25 %
~ 43.51 % of the time Life doesn't get 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.96 %
~ 56.49 % of the time Life gets 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 98.98 %
~ 22.83 % of the time YoDa gets 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.96 %
~ 20.69 % of the time Zest gets 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.96 %
~ 15.49 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 98.99 %
~ 77.17 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.24 %
~ 79.31 % of the time Zest doesn't get 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.26 %
~ 20.29 % of the time Life doesn't get 2nd or 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 85.06 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 1st in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.51 %
~ 84.51 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 2nd in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.48 %
~ 38.32 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd or 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.57 %
~ 79.71 % of the time Life gets 2nd or 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.25 %
~ 61.68 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 2nd or 4th in IEM Toronto This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.4 % to ~ 99.3 %
On August 31 2014 04:47 The_Templar wrote: I would like TaeJa to be the #1 seed, this is still possible right? Is it possible to calculate the probability of this?
"TaeJa has a ~ 20.75 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon."
On August 31 2014 04:47 The_Templar wrote: I would like TaeJa to be the #1 seed, this is still possible right? Is it possible to calculate the probability of this?
"TaeJa has a ~ 20.75 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon."
On August 31 2014 04:47 The_Templar wrote: I would like TaeJa to be the #1 seed, this is still possible right? Is it possible to calculate the probability of this?
"TaeJa has a ~ 20.75 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon."
Thanks for this
I actually had already written the code for the chances of A vs B at Blizzcon before you asked for this, so it was easy to add what you asked for with it
So Flash needs a 2nd/2nd minimum for IEM/Kespa to make it to Blizzcon. Making 1st in Kespa is an auto-in. But a 1st in IEM would still need him to make at least 2nd in Kespa. Damn, that looks tough.
On August 31 2014 10:34 PassionFruit wrote: So Flash needs a 2nd/2nd minimum for IEM/Kespa to make it to Blizzcon. Making 1st in Kespa is an auto-in. But a 1st in IEM would still need him to make at least 2nd in Kespa. Damn, that looks tough.
He can also place highly in GSL so it's not too difficult. He just needs to maintain the form he's shown in korea.
I think flash has a pretty good chance at making it... I think despite the fact that snute lost he still has a pretty good chance esp if he attends both dreamhacks
On August 31 2014 10:34 PassionFruit wrote: So Flash needs a 2nd/2nd minimum for IEM/Kespa to make it to Blizzcon. Making 1st in Kespa is an auto-in. But a 1st in IEM would still need him to make at least 2nd in Kespa. Damn, that looks tough.
If he wins KeSPA Cup he only goes to ~ 45.54 %
also
~ 6.54 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.58 % to ~ 64.28 %
~ 10.4 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.58 % to ~ 87.03 %
And I added a little new feature. In the events tables (on player pages, tournament pages, race pages, all those) you can filter by >80%, <20%, >90%, or anything like that in increments of 10. You could always sort by Blizzcon Chances to get a similar effect but then you get a lot of unlikely events at the top, so I figured this would be a little more convenient. Why not try it out on Flash's page? http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55
and now you can also filter events with helps or hurts, to show only the events that help or hurt the player's chances any more ideas for filtering? lol
I would think flashes chances of going to blizzcon would be higher if he wins the 1500 points for kespa... he's already at 1000 points so the 1500 would put him at 2500. also he has a decent chance of beating taeja then whoever he would meet in the finals. and then he's in an all Z group for code s so that's another hundred or so points for going to ro8
On August 31 2014 11:07 asongdotnet wrote: I would think flashes chances of going to blizzcon would be higher if he wins the 1500 points for kespa... he's already at 1000 points so the 1500 would put him at 2500. also he has a decent chance of beating taeja then whoever he would meet in the finals. and then he's in an all Z group for code s so that's another hundred or so points for going to ro8
2500 points isn't actually that good
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.2 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 49.57 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.62 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
On August 31 2014 11:07 asongdotnet wrote: I would think flashes chances of going to blizzcon would be higher if he wins the 1500 points for kespa... he's already at 1000 points so the 1500 would put him at 2500. also he has a decent chance of beating taeja then whoever he would meet in the finals. and then he's in an all Z group for code s so that's another hundred or so points for going to ro8
2500 points isn't actually that good
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.2 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 49.57 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.62 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
well 2500 would just be the starting point but it's a pretty good starting point haha
Biggest Winners Life went up by ~ 33.87 %, going from ~ 65.15 % to ~ 99.02 % Flash went up by ~ 9.05 %, going from ~ 6.71 % to ~ 15.76 % Snute went up by ~ 3.62 %, going from ~ 11.22 % to ~ 14.84 %
Biggest Losers herO went down by ~ 15.49 %, going from ~ 64.5 % to ~ 49.01 % sOs went down by ~ 8.64 %, going from ~ 93.34 % to ~ 84.69 % Scarlett went down by ~ 5.57 %, going from ~ 19.79 % to ~ 14.22 % Jaedong went down by ~ 2.96 %, going from ~ 97.7 % to ~ 94.73 % soO went down by ~ 2.27 %, going from ~ 63.94 % to ~ 61.67 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
jjakji went down by ~ 1.94 %, going from ~ 93.71 % to ~ 91.77 % MMA went down by ~ 1.8 %, going from ~ 15.05 % to ~ 13.25 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.5 %, going from ~ 30.99 % to ~ 29.5 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.37 %, going from ~ 14.58 % to ~ 13.21 % Classic went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 69.44 % to ~ 68.63 % Rain went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 31.2 % to ~ 30.42 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 9.04 % to ~ 8.45 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 9.19 % to ~ 8.61 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 12.56 % to ~ 12.05 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 3.07 % to ~ 2.71 % Maru went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 6.63 % to ~ 6.32 % Heart went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 4.79 % to ~ 4.58 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.93 % to ~ 0.79 % HuK went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 1.72 % HerO went down by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 7.15 % to ~ 7.05 %
Flash still has the #2 headband!
Starts in Flash has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Flash is at ~ 15.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.14 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.88 %. ~ 47.86 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 13.47 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.86 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 52.14 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.21 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.87 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 76.33 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,675 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Flash's Top 20 Events (more here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55 ) ~ 38.68 % of the time Flash loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 2.6 %
~ 61.32 % of the time Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 24.04 %
~ 47.88 % of the time Flash loses their next match in IEM Toronto ro2 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 13.47 %
~ 52.12 % of the time Flash wins their next match in IEM Toronto ro2 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 17.83 %
~ 10.06 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 96.1 %
~ 10.36 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 56.66 %
~ 89.94 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 6.75 %
~ 27.72 % of the time Flash gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 6.64 %
~ 5.7 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S StarDust gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 99.41 %
~ 43.35 % of the time Flash gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 9.8 %
~ 56.65 % of the time Flash doesn't get 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 20.29 %
~ 5.23 % of the time Flash gets 1st in IEM Toronto Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 99.83 %
~ 5.23 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Flash wins their next match in IEM Toronto ro2 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 99.83 %
~ 4.83 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Zest gets 1st in IEM Toronto This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 92.05 %
~ 4.83 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Flash loses their next match in IEM Toronto ro2 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 92.05 %
~ 43.35 % of the time StarDust doesn't get 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 9.8 %
~ 89.64 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 11.01 %
~ 4.24 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S INnoVation gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 95.97 %
~ 4.15 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Zest gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 96.11 %
~ 56.65 % of the time StarDust gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 20.29 %
I like how this tournament has gone so far. Jaedong only gets to qualify for blizzcon at this rate if he does something or gets a bit luckier, Flash is earning his blizzcon spot, Snute has a bit of a better chance now.
On September 01 2014 03:34 The_Templar wrote: I like how this tournament has gone so far. Jaedong only gets to qualify for blizzcon at this rate if he does something or gets a bit luckier, Flash is earning his blizzcon spot, Snute has a bit of a better chance now.
that's not really true about Jaedong actually This happens ~ 56.31 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.74 % to ~ 90.71 %
and he isn't confirmed for any other tournament yet, so if he doesn't win any more matches he'll probably still qualify
On September 01 2014 03:34 The_Templar wrote: I like how this tournament has gone so far. Jaedong only gets to qualify for blizzcon at this rate if he does something or gets a bit luckier, Flash is earning his blizzcon spot, Snute has a bit of a better chance now.
that's not really true about Jaedong actually This happens ~ 56.31 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.74 % to ~ 90.71 %
and he isn't confirmed for any other tournament yet, so if he doesn't win any more matches he'll probably still qualify
also, Jaedong has 2950 WCS Points already ~ 71.59 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 13.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
INnoVation (Acer), is at ~ 12.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1425
PartinG (SKT T1), is at ~ 8.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1200
So right now we have - 8 players fully locked in (Hyun, MC, Taeja, StarDust, Polt, San, Zest, Bomber) 3 players almost certain with 90% or higher (Life, Jaedong, jjakji) 3 players with great chances over 60% (sOs, Classic, soO) 4 players with decent chances over 20% (herO, Rain, Pigbaby, viOLet) 6 players to look out for a miracle run with over 10% (Flash, Snute, Scarlett, MMA, Bunny, Innovation) 16 players with poor chances over 1% (full list of players here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player_list )
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.21 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.39 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.78 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,675 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago Life went up by ~ 33.81 %, going from ~ 65.15 % to ~ 98.97 % Flash went up by ~ 11.2 %, going from ~ 6.71 % to ~ 17.91 % Snute went up by ~ 3.5 %, going from ~ 11.22 % to ~ 14.72 %
Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago herO went down by ~ 15.74 %, going from ~ 64.5 % to ~ 48.76 % sOs went down by ~ 8.82 %, going from ~ 93.34 % to ~ 84.52 % Scarlett went down by ~ 5.61 %, going from ~ 19.79 % to ~ 14.18 % Jaedong went down by ~ 3.12 %, going from ~ 97.7 % to ~ 94.58 % soO went down by ~ 2.53 %, going from ~ 63.94 % to ~ 61.42 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
jjakji went down by ~ 2.15 %, going from ~ 93.71 % to ~ 91.56 % MMA went down by ~ 1.87 %, going from ~ 15.05 % to ~ 13.18 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.66 %, going from ~ 30.99 % to ~ 29.34 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 14.58 % to ~ 13.19 % Classic went down by ~ 0.95 %, going from ~ 69.44 % to ~ 68.48 % Rain went down by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 31.2 % to ~ 30.35 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 9.04 % to ~ 8.42 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 9.19 % to ~ 8.57 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 12.56 % to ~ 12.05 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 3.07 % to ~ 2.68 % Maru went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 6.63 % to ~ 6.34 % Heart went down by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 4.79 % to ~ 4.54 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.93 % to ~ 0.78 % HuK went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 1.84 % to ~ 1.7 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 28.04 % to ~ 27.92 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 2.38 % HerO went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 7.15 % to ~ 7.04 % Solar went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 7.25 % to ~ 7.14 %
Flash now has the #2 Headband and Effort still holds the #1 Headband. Will we see another #1 vs #2 match this year? With this tournament, the chances of 1+ foreigners qualifying for Blizzcon went from ~ 53.75 % down to ~ 51.29 %, and the chances for 2+ foreigners went from ~ 10.87 % down to ~ 9.33 %.
Foreign Hopes Snute ~ 9.99 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 14.71 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 9.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 14.18 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 9.35 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.17 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 3.81 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.47 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 2.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.68 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
MajOr ~ 1.85 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.69 % chance overall. TLO ~ 1.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.96 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.13 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.7 % chance overall. Jim ~ 0.61 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.89 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.79 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.45 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.63 % chance overall. Nerchio ~ 0.39 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.54 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.36 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.52 % chance overall. Grubby ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.03 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. BlinG ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. iaguz ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Bly ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. neeb ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Kas ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Serral ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. KrasS ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. puCK ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. TooDming ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Has ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. qxc ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. XiGua ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. ShoWTimE ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. HeRoMaRinE ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Starbuck ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. BabyKnight ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances for Seeds Bomber has a ~ 35.42 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 32.3 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 31.33 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 24.56 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 23.84 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HyuN has a ~ 23.26 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 22.4 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.14 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 21.35 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 19.9 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 19.68 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 18.39 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 18.06 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 17.87 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 17.57 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 17.44 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 17.24 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 16.79 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 16.2 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.88 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.22 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 15.22 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 14.87 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 14.6 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 14.45 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 14.45 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 14.28 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 14.06 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 13.53 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 13.48 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 13.46 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 13.3 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 13.22 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 13.2 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 13.06 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 12.67 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.62 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 12.57 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 12.54 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 12.22 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.15 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 12.14 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 11.77 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 11.74 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 11.57 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 11.45 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.4 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.4 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 11.03 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 10.98 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 10.86 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 10.68 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.65 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.64 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.57 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 10.57 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 10.55 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.25 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 10.24 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 10.1 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 10.04 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 9.98 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 9.93 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 9.8 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 9.78 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 9.76 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 9.73 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 9.68 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 9.6 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 9.34 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 9.02 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 8.87 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 8.51 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 8.51 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 8.46 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 8.43 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 8.34 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 7.91 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 7.45 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 7.23 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 6.96 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.92 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.76 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 6.76 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.71 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.67 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 6.62 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.54 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 6.49 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 6.39 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.27 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 6.2 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 6.18 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 6.18 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.14 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 6.02 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.99 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.83 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 5.8 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 5.79 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 5.71 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 5.67 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 5.63 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 5.6 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 5.6 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 5.57 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 5.57 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.48 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.34 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 5.23 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 4.99 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 4.98 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 4.91 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 4.68 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 4.65 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 4.39 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 4.31 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 4.3 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.97 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.86 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 3.73 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 3.66 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 3.65 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.62 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 3.6 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 3.52 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 3.51 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 3.37 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 3.35 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 3.33 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 3.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 3.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.97 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 2.89 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.84 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 2.82 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.81 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 2.8 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.78 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 2.76 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.76 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.72 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.69 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.68 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 2.68 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 2.54 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.49 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.49 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 2.44 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.38 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 2.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 2.37 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 2.32 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 2.31 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.31 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.3 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 2.29 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.27 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 2.25 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 2.23 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 2.19 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 2.19 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 2.15 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 2.08 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.98 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 1.98 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.97 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.97 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.83 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.83 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.81 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.79 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.79 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.75 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.68 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.66 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.66 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Flash has a ~ 1.63 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 1.61 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.59 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.58 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 1.57 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.55 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.54 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 1.5 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.5 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.47 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 1.46 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. sOs has a ~ 1.45 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.44 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.43 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.42 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Rain has a ~ 1.42 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.38 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.37 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 1.33 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 1.31 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.29 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 1.28 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.28 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.28 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.24 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.22 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. PartinG has a ~ 1.17 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.15 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. VortiX has a ~ 1.15 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Heart has a ~ 1.13 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Maru has a ~ 1.12 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Snute has a ~ 1.11 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. MajOr has a ~ 1.09 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. viOLet has a ~ 1.05 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. YoDa has a ~ 1.04 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Solar has a ~ 1.03 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. More on the website...
Chances for 1st Round Blizzcon Matches ~ 17.29 % chance to see Life vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 14.19 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.78 % chance to see Bomber vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.48 % chance to see Life vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.17 % chance to see Life vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 12.87 % chance to see TaeJa vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.72 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.57 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.9 % chance to see Life vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.78 % chance to see sOs vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.57 % chance to see HyuN vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.53 % chance to see Jaedong vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.51 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.47 % chance to see Life vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.1 % chance to see jjakji vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.04 % chance to see San vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.01 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.89 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.84 % chance to see jjakji vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.78 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.93 % chance to see HyuN vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.88 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.52 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.3 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.16 % chance to see San vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.06 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.05 % chance to see MC vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.99 % chance to see Polt vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.74 % chance to see sOs vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.67 % chance to see San vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.57 % chance to see Life vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.45 % chance to see Polt vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.41 % chance to see HyuN vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.34 % chance to see Bomber vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.28 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.27 % chance to see StarDust vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.07 % chance to see MC vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.79 % chance to see HyuN vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.62 % chance to see TaeJa vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.54 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.38 % chance to see soO vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.28 % chance to see Polt vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.13 % chance to see Classic vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.13 % chance to see MC vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.1 % chance to see San vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.79 % chance to see soO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.64 % chance to see Life vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.57 % chance to see Bomber vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.05 % chance to see HyuN vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.99 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.87 % chance to see herO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.75 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.74 % chance to see StarDust vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.69 % chance to see San vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.6 % chance to see Polt vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.47 % chance to see Bomber vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.77 % chance to see MC vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.68 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.61 % chance to see viOLet vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.52 % chance to see Rain vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.45 % chance to see Rain vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.68 % chance to see TaeJa vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.54 % chance to see Rain vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.51 % chance to see San vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.48 % chance to see Polt vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.47 % chance to see TaeJa vs viOLet as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.4 % chance to see Rain vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.37 % chance to see viOLet vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.36 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.32 % chance to see Bomber vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.3 % chance to see Rain vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.2 % chance to see viOLet vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.12 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.12 % chance to see viOLet vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.09 % chance to see Zest vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.06 % chance to see viOLet vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.04 % chance to see viOLet vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.03 % chance to see MC vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.96 % chance to see Rain vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.95 % chance to see TaeJa vs Rain as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.92 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.67 % chance to see viOLet vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.44 % chance to see Rain vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.35 % chance to see Flash vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.33 % chance to see MC vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.29 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.22 % chance to see Polt vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.18 % chance to see TaeJa vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.17 % chance to see Bomber vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.17 % chance to see Flash vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.16 % chance to see San vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.06 % chance to see Bomber vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.03 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.01 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.96 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.95 % chance to see San vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.92 % chance to see Bomber vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.89 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.89 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.88 % chance to see Snute vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.87 % chance to see jjakji vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.87 % chance to see Polt vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.83 % chance to see San vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.83 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.82 % chance to see Zest vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.82 % chance to see MMA vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.8 % chance to see MMA vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.8 % chance to see HyuN vs Flash as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chance to see TaeJa vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.71 % chance to see MC vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.7 % chance to see Scarlett vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.7 % chance to see Scarlett vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.67 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.66 % chance to see INnoVation vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.64 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.63 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.62 % chance to see TaeJa vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.6 % chance to see Polt vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.58 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.52 % chance to see INnoVation vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.5 % chance to see Jaedong vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.48 % chance to see Polt vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.42 % chance to see HyuN vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.38 % chance to see MC vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.37 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.35 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.35 % chance to see Snute vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.34 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.33 % chance to see TaeJa vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.33 % chance to see ForGG vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.32 % chance to see HyuN vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.26 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. More on the website...
~ 38.65 % of the time Flash loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 3.75 %
~ 61.35 % of the time Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 26.83 %
~ 10.07 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.83 %
~ 10.36 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 68.26 %
~ 89.93 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 8.74 %
~ 43.29 % of the time Flash gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 10.89 %
~ 56.71 % of the time Flash doesn't get 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 23.27 %
~ 89.64 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 12.09 %
~ 5.72 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S StarDust gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 43.29 % of the time StarDust doesn't get 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 10.89 %
~ 27.69 % of the time Flash gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 9.43 %
~ 56.71 % of the time StarDust gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 23.27 %
~ 6.36 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 90.63 %
~ 4.35 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Flash gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.62 %
~ 4.25 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S INnoVation gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.81 %
~ 4.17 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Zest gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.84 %
~ 3.74 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S PartinG gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.83 %
~ 3.67 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Maru gets 8th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.82 %
~ 3.55 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S Cure gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 99.84 %
~ 1.49 % of the time Flash gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 40.97 %
We're now running out of tournaments, only the 3 WCS regions, 2 Dreamhacks, KeSPA Cup, Red Bull Washington, and the 2 placeholders left. I may have to remove the 2 placeholders soon if they don't get filled or at least 1 of them, any feedback on this?
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
On September 01 2014 15:22 digmouse wrote: Snute probably need another top 4 finish or two at WCS T2 events to secure a spot.
On August 31 2014 11:08 Die4Ever wrote: ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.2 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 49.57 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.62 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Snute currently has 2,550 points. If he attends and makes Top 8 at both of the last Dreamhacks, that'd put him at 3,050, meaning well over 75% chances to make Blizzcon.
On August 31 2014 11:08 Die4Ever wrote: ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.2 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 49.57 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.62 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Snute currently has 2,550 points. If he attends and makes Top 8 at both of the last Dreamhacks, that'd put him at 3,050, meaning well over 75% chances to make Blizzcon.
It just hit me: Since a player rather low in the point standings won IEM, and the rest of the Top 4 were all players basically guaranteed to make Blizzcon anyway, the point threshold has probably dropped, hasn't it?
On September 01 2014 20:24 GolemMadness wrote: Where can I see the points breakdown for different tournaments? Like in GSL how many points you get for 1st, 2nd, semi-finals, etc.
On September 01 2014 20:24 GolemMadness wrote: Where can I see the points breakdown for different tournaments? Like in GSL how many points you get for 1st, 2nd, semi-finals, etc.
On August 31 2014 10:34 PassionFruit wrote: So Flash needs a 2nd/2nd minimum for IEM/Kespa to make it to Blizzcon. Making 1st in Kespa is an auto-in. But a 1st in IEM would still need him to make at least 2nd in Kespa. Damn, that looks tough.
If he wins KeSPA Cup he only goes to ~ 45.54 %
also
~ 6.54 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.58 % to ~ 64.28 %
~ 10.4 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.58 % to ~ 87.03 %
And I added a little new feature. In the events tables (on player pages, tournament pages, race pages, all those) you can filter by >80%, <20%, >90%, or anything like that in increments of 10. You could always sort by Blizzcon Chances to get a similar effect but then you get a lot of unlikely events at the top, so I figured this would be a little more convenient. Why not try it out on Flash's page? http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55
On September 01 2014 17:50 Circumstance wrote: It just hit me: Since a player rather low in the point standings won IEM, and the rest of the Top 4 were all players basically guaranteed to make Blizzcon anyway, the point threshold has probably dropped, hasn't it?
actually they went up, likely because middling players won good points like Life, Flash, and Snute. If the top 4 had been like Taeja, MC, Hyun, Polt then the WCS Point Cutoffs would've went down.
Before IEM Toronto: ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.98 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.48 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 85.1 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
After IEM Toronto: ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.21 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.43 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.82 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
On August 31 2014 10:34 PassionFruit wrote: So Flash needs a 2nd/2nd minimum for IEM/Kespa to make it to Blizzcon. Making 1st in Kespa is an auto-in. But a 1st in IEM would still need him to make at least 2nd in Kespa. Damn, that looks tough.
If he wins KeSPA Cup he only goes to ~ 45.54 %
also
~ 6.54 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.58 % to ~ 64.28 %
~ 10.4 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.58 % to ~ 87.03 %
And I added a little new feature. In the events tables (on player pages, tournament pages, race pages, all those) you can filter by >80%, <20%, >90%, or anything like that in increments of 10. You could always sort by Blizzcon Chances to get a similar effect but then you get a lot of unlikely events at the top, so I figured this would be a little more convenient. Why not try it out on Flash's page? http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55
Cool stuff man!
Thanks! Do note that example I gave is from before Flash won IEM, if he wins GSL now his chances actually go above 99%, so make sure to check out the website for up to date stats http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.3 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.52 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 78.37 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
This update also has Flash's new Aligulac rating which gave him a pretty nice boost, and I removed Placeholder Tournament 2 since we're getting closer to Blizzcon and no new tournaments are being announced. I will probably remove Placeholder Tournament 1 in October. Biggest Winners Since 1 Day Ago Snute went up by ~ 22.88 %, going from ~ 14.71 % to ~ 37.59 % MMA went up by ~ 6.19 %, going from ~ 13.18 % to ~ 19.38 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.89 %, going from ~ 8.42 % to ~ 12.3 % Flash went up by ~ 3.82 %, going from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 21.74 % Solar went up by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 7.16 % to ~ 8.08 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Life went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 98.97 % to ~ 99.76 % Happy went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 0.52 % to ~ 1.24 % Welmu went up by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 3.68 % to ~ 3.99 % Dear went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.29 % Golden went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 2.58 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 0.74 %
Biggest Losers Since 1 Day Ago herO went down by ~ 5.6 %, going from ~ 48.75 % to ~ 43.15 % Classic went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 68.48 % to ~ 63.72 % viOLet went down by ~ 4.41 %, going from ~ 27.89 % to ~ 23.48 % soO went down by ~ 4.34 %, going from ~ 61.42 % to ~ 57.08 % Rain went down by ~ 3.72 %, going from ~ 30.31 % to ~ 26.59 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Pigbaby went down by ~ 3.22 %, going from ~ 29.35 % to ~ 26.13 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.92 %, going from ~ 13.18 % to ~ 11.26 % sOs went down by ~ 1.8 %, going from ~ 84.55 % to ~ 82.75 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.41 %, going from ~ 14.18 % to ~ 12.76 % HerO went down by ~ 1.38 %, going from ~ 7.03 % to ~ 5.65 % PartinG went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 8.57 % to ~ 7.38 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 12.06 % to ~ 11.05 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 91.57 % to ~ 90.6 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 8.54 % to ~ 7.67 % Maru went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 6.32 % to ~ 5.6 % Cure went down by ~ 0.45 %, going from ~ 1.49 % to ~ 1.04 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.34 %, going from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 1.96 % Jim went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 0.89 % to ~ 0.6 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 2.38 % to ~ 2.11 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 5.47 % to ~ 5.2 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 2.69 % to ~ 2.42 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 0.29 % Trap went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.04 %
With the addition of the DreamHack Moscow player list, the chances of 1+ foreigners qualifying for Blizzcon went from ~ 51.29 % up to ~ 64.08 %, and the chances for 2+ foreigners went from ~ 9.33 % up to ~ 15.39 %.
Foreign Hopes Snute ~ 25.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 37.59 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.76 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 6.29 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 11.26 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 2.88 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.2 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 2.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.99 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
MajOr ~ 1.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.42 % chance overall. TLO ~ 1.05 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.89 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.91 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.7 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.7 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.24 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.74 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.69 % chance overall. Jim ~ 0.28 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.6 % chance overall. Nerchio ~ 0.16 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.29 % chance overall. Bly ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Kas ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Serral ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Grubby ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. BlinG ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. iaguz ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. neeb ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. KrasS ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. puCK ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
DreamHack Moscow Winning Chances YoDa has a ~ 11.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 16.65 % Life has a ~ 9.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 9.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 8.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 19.39 % Dear has a ~ 7.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.55 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Snute has a ~ 6.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 99.92 % First has a ~ 5.89 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.65 % Patience has a ~ 5.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Happy has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 4.4 % MMA has a ~ 5.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 67.81 % Golden has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 5.35 % Welmu has a ~ 2.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 12.8 % TargA has a ~ 2.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Stork has a ~ 2.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Bly has a ~ 2.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.56 % Daisy has a ~ 2.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Kas has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.51 % Serral has a ~ 1.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.41 % elfi has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.66 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 1.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.8 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko has a ~ 0.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus has a ~ 0.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % CoolTea has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Moscow Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 62.32 % if they win, with a ~ 6.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 99.92 % MMA would gain ~ 48.44 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 67.81 % Solar would gain ~ 11.31 % if they win, with a ~ 8.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 19.39 % Welmu would gain ~ 8.8 % if they win, with a ~ 2.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 12.8 % YoDa would gain ~ 4.34 % if they win, with a ~ 11.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 16.65 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Happy would gain ~ 3.16 % if they win, with a ~ 5.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 4.4 % Golden would gain ~ 2.76 % if they win, with a ~ 3.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 5.35 % Dear would gain ~ 2.26 % if they win, with a ~ 7.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.55 % Oz would gain ~ 0.65 % if they win, with a ~ 1.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.66 % First would gain ~ 0.6 % if they win, with a ~ 5.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.65 % Bly would gain ~ 0.53 % if they win, with a ~ 2.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.56 % Kas would gain ~ 0.49 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.51 % Serral would gain ~ 0.4 % if they win, with a ~ 1.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.41 % Life would gain ~ 0.24 % if they win, with a ~ 9.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0.05 % if they win, with a ~ 5.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Daisy would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Stork would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % CoolTea would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % BBoongBBoong would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.7 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Moscow Top 50 Events (more here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=36 ) ~ 5.73 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 93.64 %
~ 10.38 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 72.7 %
~ 28.62 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 24.34 %
~ 16.11 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 80.15 %
~ 71.38 % of the time Snute doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 42.92 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 4.93 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 38.77 %
~ 33.78 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 61.64 %
~ 93.12 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 32.99 %
~ 28.05 % of the time Snute gets 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 55.11 %
~ 28.84 % of the time MMA gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 14.38 %
~ 66.22 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 25.34 %
~ 17.67 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 44.77 %
~ 94.27 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 34.2 %
~ 89.62 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 33.54 %
~ 71.95 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 30.78 %
~ 94.93 % of the time MMA doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 16.79 %
~ 71.16 % of the time MMA doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 21.4 %
~ 83.89 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 29.44 %
~ 37.6 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 26.1 %
~ 46.3 % of the time Snute gets 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 32.14 %
~ 53.7 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 42.31 %
~ 62.4 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 44.53 %
~ 82.33 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 36.06 %
~ 6.59 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 15.33 %
~ 5.73 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 88.62 %
~ 91.99 % of the time Solar doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 7.09 %
~ 95.07 % of the time MMA doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 18.37 %
~ 6.11 % of the time Solar gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 10.47 %
~ 4.97 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 3.83 %
~ 88.94 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 11.77 %
~ 43.32 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 35.03 %
~ 56.68 % of the time Snute gets 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 39.57 %
~ 3.55 % of the time Welmu gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 5.82 %
~ 9.36 % of the time Happy gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 2.95 %
~ 28.86 % of the time Happy gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 0.56 %
~ 71.14 % of the time Happy doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.51 %
~ 93.41 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 12.09 %
~ 97.32 % of the time Welmu doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 3.76 %
~ 92.59 % of the time Dear doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Dear's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 0.1 %
~ 14.33 % of the time Happy gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 3.25 %
~ 94.86 % of the time Happy doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.06 %
~ 93.89 % of the time Solar doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 7.92 %
~ 93.12 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 95.08 %
~ 95.03 % of the time Happy doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.1 %
~ 4.29 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 2.99 %
~ 96.32 % of the time Golden doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 2.48 %
~ 94.27 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 94.99 %
~ 6.29 % of the time Life gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 %
~ 96.45 % of the time Welmu doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 3.93 %
~ 94.11 % of the time First doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change First's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.01 %
Die4Ever what would be snute's chances if he got round of 8 moscow round of 16 stockholm and cj hero and classic both get eliminated in round of 16 kespa cup???
On September 01 2014 20:24 GolemMadness wrote: Where can I see the points breakdown for different tournaments? Like in GSL how many points you get for 1st, 2nd, semi-finals, etc.
On September 02 2014 06:52 SNSeigifried wrote: Die4Ever what would be snute's chances if he got round of 8 moscow round of 16 stockholm and cj hero and classic both get eliminated in round of 16 kespa cup???
That's too specific an event, WCS Predictor didn't catch it as something with a good mix of significance and likelihood. However I just made some tweaks to make it filter out dumb events better (Flash wins his next match in GSL and also wins GSL, they're good separate but together is just redundant), and keep track of way more events than before. Snute now has 912 events in his list! I also did the Dreamhack Moscow player updates and added in TRUE.
Anyways let's take a shot at estimating the answer to your question. Here are some relevant events.
~ 17.34 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 44.61 %
~ 3.01 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 51.98 % (wow this helps more than I thought it would, because it's very unlikely due to no player listing I guess)
~ 43.13 % of the time Classic gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 43.38 %
~ 26.11 % of the time herO gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 43.47 %
~ 7.47 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow Classic gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 57.77 %
Also the 8th and 16th places would bring Snute up to 2,925 WCS Points ~ 65.36 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon So let's start with that, 65.36%.
Now time for some hand-waving lol. Snute's 8th place at Moscow combined with Classic's 16th place at KeSPA Cup gives a 13.16% increase over just Snute getting 8th at Moscow. There should be diminishing returns from multiple other players failing, so let's just say it gives half of the gain. So with our statistician-offending calculations we have 65% + 13% + 6% puts Snute at about 84% chances. This is some serious hand-waving, but I'm confident it would be somewhere between 70% and 90%.
On September 02 2014 15:08 asongdotnet wrote: You could update the min points to include kespa cup, since all 16 are guaranteed 250 points
the invited/seeded players don't get WCS Points if they lose in the first round, it's a rule for all of WCS, same thing they did for the GSL Global Championship "* Players must advance one round in order to claim WCS points for that placement. Being seeded through qualifiers counts as advancing one round."
You can see that Sorry already has his 250 minimum WCS Points due to qualifying instead of being seeded.
Die4Ever really great job! I have two questions for you:
1) Why did you use the Red Bull Washington tournament? According to liquipedia this isn't going to grant any wcs points. 2) I think it's very likely there will be no more wcs tournaments after kespa cup and the two dreamhacks. Then why keep the placeholder tournament? This fake tournament is increasing the chances of aligulac high-rated players, i don't think it's fair.
On September 02 2014 18:06 Uxon wrote: Die4Ever really great job! I have two questions for you:
1) Why did you use the Red Bull Washington tournament? According to liquipedia this isn't going to grant any wcs points. 2) I think it's very likely there will be no more wcs tournaments after kespa cup and the two dreamhacks. Then why keep the placeholder tournament? This fake tournament is increasing the chances of aligulac high-rated players, i don't think it's fair.
On September 02 2014 18:06 Uxon wrote: Die4Ever really great job! I have two questions for you:
1) Why did you use the Red Bull Washington tournament? According to liquipedia this isn't going to grant any wcs points. 2) I think it's very likely there will be no more wcs tournaments after kespa cup and the two dreamhacks. Then why keep the placeholder tournament? This fake tournament is increasing the chances of aligulac high-rated players, i don't think it's fair.
Thanks Circumstance, this answers to my first question but the second one still remains, the first link shows that there aren't other tournaments anymore after the ones i mentioned above. Then why keep the placeholder?
On September 02 2014 18:06 Uxon wrote: Die4Ever really great job! I have two questions for you:
1) Why did you use the Red Bull Washington tournament? According to liquipedia this isn't going to grant any wcs points. 2) I think it's very likely there will be no more wcs tournaments after kespa cup and the two dreamhacks. Then why keep the placeholder tournament? This fake tournament is increasing the chances of aligulac high-rated players, i don't think it's fair.
Thanks Circumstance, this answers to my first question but the second one still remains, the first link shows that there aren't other tournaments anymore after the ones i mentioned above. Then why keep the placeholder?
There's still a chance that a new tournament could be announced maybe, and the placeholder prevents prematurely giving players 0% or 100% chance prematurely due to unannounced tournaments. It is getting pretty late though, I wish I knew for sure if there was going to be anything else this year.
it's listed on both of those sites, so it seems to be giving WCS Points
My bad, I was looking on the event's liquipedia page. Interesting that it says TBD how many points are on offer...
Yea, I'm thinking they're negotiating with Blizzard between tier 2 and tier 3. Right now I'm assuming they're going to be a tier 2 (750 points to the winner like dreamhacks). Tier 3 would be 300 points to the winner. Either way the players can't get points if they lose in the 1st round, so they don't get any guaranteed points from it.
Red Bull only has 8 players while WCS events requires at least 16, but G3 infinity which only had 12 qualified to give out WCS point, not sure how that worked.
Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.
Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D
Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote: Hello
Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.
Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D
Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !
Thanks for the feedback. I will add an option to view stats for when all players are considered equal, should be done today after WCS EU.
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote: Hello
Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.
Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D
Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote: Hello
Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.
Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D
Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote: Hello
Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.
Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D
Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote: Hello
Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.
Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D
Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !
--------UPDATE Saturday, Sep 06 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow Previews! In this update I also made it so that the Placeholder Tournament 1 only has a 25% chance of it happening, so most of the samples don't include this tournament at all, because I feel it is unlikely that we will have another tournament announced. I will post the GSL Quarterfinals previews after KeSPA Cup is completed, since that will have big impact on many of those players, but you can already look at those previews on the website.
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 23.52 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 39.1 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 71.53 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 89.1 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,600 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
2,850 WCS Points has over 30% better chances than 2,825 WCS Points!
Biggest Winners Since 3 Days Ago soO went up by ~ 22.66 %, going from ~ 58.88 % to ~ 81.54 % Rain went up by ~ 6.67 %, going from ~ 26.77 % to ~ 33.44 % Solar went up by ~ 6.02 %, going from ~ 7.87 % to ~ 13.9 % ForGG went up by ~ 4.32 %, going from ~ 7.72 % to ~ 12.05 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 2.21 %, going from ~ 1.88 % to ~ 4.08 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Golden went up by ~ 1.86 %, going from ~ 2.73 % to ~ 4.59 % MaNa went up by ~ 1.24 %, going from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 2.07 % INnoVation went up by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 18.87 % to ~ 19.18 % Dayshi went up by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 0.85 % to ~ 1.15 % Jaedong went up by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 97.38 % to ~ 97.65 %
Biggest Losers Since 3 Days Ago Flash went down by ~ 19.45 %, going from ~ 23.17 % to ~ 3.72 % sOs went down by ~ 6.52 %, going from ~ 83.69 % to ~ 77.17 % jjakji went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 72.57 % to ~ 69.88 % TRUE went down by ~ 2.31 %, going from ~ 2.32 % to ~ 0.01 % Classic went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 65.03 % to ~ 62.94 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Bunny went down by ~ 1.78 %, going from ~ 12.43 % to ~ 10.65 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.74 %, going from ~ 23.95 % to ~ 22.21 % Snute went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 37.57 % to ~ 36.03 % herO went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 46.18 % to ~ 44.64 % HerO went down by ~ 1.14 %, going from ~ 5.83 % to ~ 4.69 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.09 %, going from ~ 27.6 % to ~ 26.51 % MMA went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 20.61 % to ~ 19.62 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 8.8 % to ~ 8.24 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 0.37 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.34 %, going from ~ 12.94 % to ~ 12.6 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 4.14 % to ~ 3.84 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 13.66 % to ~ 13.45 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 2.47 % to ~ 2.29 % Happy went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 1.2 % Jim went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 0.45 % Dear went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.3 % to ~ 0.15 % TLO went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 2.03 % to ~ 1.9 %
KeSPA Cup - Classic is at ~ 62.94 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.88 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.78 %. ~ 43.12 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 15.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.12 % of the time Rogue wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 56.88 % of the time Rogue loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.26 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.74 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.74 % of the time ByuL wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 64.26 % of the time ByuL loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.89 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 34.11 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 26.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.11 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 56.56 %. ~ 65.89 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.96 %.
KeSPA Cup - sOs is at ~ 77.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.24 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 95.56 %. ~ 36.76 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 45.55 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.76 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.24 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Flash is at ~ 3.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.43 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.26 %. ~ 40.57 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.57 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 59.43 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
KeSPA Cup - soO is at ~ 81.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.21 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.67 %. ~ 42.79 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 57.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Super is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.79 % of the time Super wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 57.21 % of the time Super loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - herO is at ~ 44.64 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.86 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 59.51 %. ~ 26.14 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sorry is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.14 % of the time Sorry wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.86 % of the time Sorry loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Rain is at ~ 33.44 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.62 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 43.33 %. ~ 39.38 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 18.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.38 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 60.62 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
KeSPA Cup Winning Chances Zest has a ~ 13.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 12.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 33.44 % to ~ 99.99 % Flash has a ~ 12.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 30.35 % herO has a ~ 10.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 8.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
San has a ~ 8.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 5.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 81.54 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 5.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 4.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 4.97 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 100 % ByuL has a ~ 3.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.51 % to ~ 100 % Super has a ~ 2.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Rogue has a ~ 2.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.32 % Reality has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % Sorry has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
KeSPA Cup Winning Gains Pigbaby would gain ~ 73.49 % if they win, with a ~ 2.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 26.51 % to ~ 100 % Rain would gain ~ 66.56 % if they win, with a ~ 12.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 33.44 % to ~ 99.99 % herO would gain ~ 55.36 % if they win, with a ~ 10.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 37.06 % if they win, with a ~ 4.97 % chance to win, going from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 26.63 % if they win, with a ~ 12.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 30.35 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
sOs would gain ~ 22.83 % if they win, with a ~ 8.83 % chance to win, going from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 18.46 % if they win, with a ~ 5.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 81.54 % to ~ 100 % Rogue would gain ~ 0.31 % if they win, with a ~ 2.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.32 % Reality would gain ~ 0.02 % if they win, with a ~ 2.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 % ByuL would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Super would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sorry would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.44 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
~ 87.94 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.72 % to ~ 0.07 %
~ 40.75 % of the time Rogue gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 15.55 %
~ 36.38 % of the time Rogue gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 15.76 %
~ 59.25 % of the time Rogue doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 95.54 %
~ 48.09 % of the time Classic doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 24.39 %
~ 51.91 % of the time Classic gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 98.66 %
~ 45.02 % of the time Classic gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 98.46 %
~ 54.98 % of the time Classic doesn't get 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 33.87 %
~ 63.62 % of the time Rogue doesn't get 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 89.92 %
~ 26.35 % of the time Rogue gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 15.72 %
~ 29.27 % of the time Classic gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 62.94 % to ~ 97.84 %
~ 8.9 % of the time herO gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 99.06 %
~ 25.46 % of the time herO gets 2nd or 4th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 88.05 %
~ 24.42 % of the time Sorry gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 2.58 %
~ 4.44 % of the time Pigbaby gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 26.51 % to ~ 96.1 %
~ 25.7 % of the time Sorry gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 2.59 %
~ 19.79 % of the time Sorry gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 2.56 %
~ 34.55 % of the time Reality gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 45.45 %
~ 30.03 % of the time Reality gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 77.17 % to ~ 45.41 %
~ 23.65 % of the time Rain gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 79.15 %
~ 16.57 % of the time herO gets 4th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.64 % to ~ 82.14 %
DreamHack Moscow Winning Chances YoDa has a ~ 11.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.45 % to ~ 16.84 % Life has a ~ 9.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 8.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 7.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.9 % to ~ 31.35 % Dear has a ~ 7.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.56 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Snute has a ~ 6.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 99.98 % First has a ~ 5.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.38 % Patience has a ~ 5.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % MMA has a ~ 5.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 69.47 % Happy has a ~ 4.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.2 % to ~ 4.16 % Golden has a ~ 3.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 8.79 % TRUE has a ~ 3.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.33 % Welmu has a ~ 2.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.84 % to ~ 12.38 % Stork has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % TargA has a ~ 2.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy has a ~ 2.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kas has a ~ 1.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi has a ~ 1.64 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Serral has a ~ 1.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.59 % Bly has a ~ 1.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.44 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 1.22 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke has a ~ 0.8 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK has a ~ 0.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer has a ~ 0.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DMC has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Noname has a ~ 0.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Moscow Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 63.96 % if they win, with a ~ 6.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 99.98 % MMA would gain ~ 49.85 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 69.47 % Solar would gain ~ 17.46 % if they win, with a ~ 7.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.9 % to ~ 31.35 % Welmu would gain ~ 8.55 % if they win, with a ~ 2.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.84 % to ~ 12.38 % Golden would gain ~ 4.2 % if they win, with a ~ 3.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.59 % to ~ 8.79 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa would gain ~ 3.4 % if they win, with a ~ 11.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.45 % to ~ 16.84 % Happy would gain ~ 2.96 % if they win, with a ~ 4.83 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.2 % to ~ 4.16 % Dear would gain ~ 1.4 % if they win, with a ~ 7.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 1.56 % Serral would gain ~ 0.57 % if they win, with a ~ 1.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.59 % Oz would gain ~ 0.43 % if they win, with a ~ 1.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.44 % First would gain ~ 0.36 % if they win, with a ~ 5.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.38 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.32 % if they win, with a ~ 3.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.33 % Life would gain ~ 0.08 % if they win, with a ~ 9.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 5.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Stork would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Noname would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DMC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % BBoongBBoong would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bly would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kas would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
~ 5.52 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 96.92 %
~ 15.6 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 89.37 %
~ 10.08 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 85.24 %
~ 32.96 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 64.1 %
~ 67.04 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 22.23 %
~ 27.44 % of the time Snute gets 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 57.49 %
~ 28.54 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 21.97 %
~ 38.5 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 22.41 %
~ 61.5 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 44.55 %
~ 72.56 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 27.91 %
~ 71.46 % of the time Snute doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 41.64 %
~ 84.4 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 26.17 %
~ 4.87 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 38.57 %
~ 45.91 % of the time Snute gets 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 29.31 %
~ 54.09 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 41.72 %
~ 10.08 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 69.88 % to ~ 52.08 %
~ 93.53 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 31.6 %
~ 89.92 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 30.51 %
~ 14.05 % of the time MMA gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.62 % to ~ 32.76 %
~ 94.48 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.03 % to ~ 32.47 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
Looking at the most likely first matches of Blizzcon, almost all of them are big rematches or rivalries, I guess that's the main benefit of rewarding players for going to many tournaments lol.
~ 22.27 % chance to see HyuN vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 14.71 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 14.65 % chance to see Life vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 14.65 % chance to see TaeJa vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 14.56 % chance to see Life vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 14.13 % chance to see Life vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.66 % chance to see Life vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.5 % chance to see Life vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 13.01 % chance to see Life vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.6 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 12.43 % chance to see Jaedong vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.68 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.43 % chance to see San vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 11.31 % chance to see Bomber vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.6 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.55 % chance to see MC vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.16 % chance to see sOs vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 10.01 % chance to see Bomber vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.78 % chance to see MC vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.78 % chance to see soO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 9.65 % chance to see Polt vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.65 % chance to see soO vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.64 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.54 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.45 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.39 % chance to see Polt vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.3 % chance to see San vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.08 % chance to see MC vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 9.02 % chance to see San vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.99 % chance to see sOs vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.86 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.63 % chance to see HyuN vs sOs as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.51 % chance to see HyuN vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.33 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.15 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.11 % chance to see Polt vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 8.08 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.89 % chance to see StarDust vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.88 % chance to see San vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.65 % chance to see jjakji vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.56 % chance to see HyuN vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.38 % chance to see HyuN vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 7.29 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.72 % chance to see Rain vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.45 % chance to see Rain vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.39 % chance to see Bomber vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 6.34 % chance to see Classic vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.99 % chance to see jjakji vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.92 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.58 % chance to see Bomber vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.44 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.36 % chance to see herO vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.3 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 5.29 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.93 % chance to see Polt vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.93 % chance to see StarDust vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.77 % chance to see San vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.58 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.55 % chance to see Polt vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.45 % chance to see Snute vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.32 % chance to see San vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.3 % chance to see MC vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 4.23 % chance to see MC vs herO as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.84 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.78 % chance to see Rain vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.59 % chance to see viOLet vs Bomber as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.57 % chance to see viOLet vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.39 % chance to see Rain vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.29 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.25 % chance to see Rain vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.08 % chance to see TaeJa vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.07 % chance to see Snute vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.05 % chance to see Polt vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.04 % chance to see HyuN vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 3.03 % chance to see San vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.98 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.94 % chance to see INnoVation vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.89 % chance to see TaeJa vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.89 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.85 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.81 % chance to see Zest vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.81 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.76 % chance to see MC vs Pigbaby as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.55 % chance to see TaeJa vs viOLet as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.54 % chance to see INnoVation vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.52 % chance to see MMA vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.46 % chance to see viOLet vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.45 % chance to see TaeJa vs Rain as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.44 % chance to see Rain vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.39 % chance to see viOLet vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.38 % chance to see Zest vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.33 % chance to see MMA vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.3 % chance to see viOLet vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.23 % chance to see viOLet vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.15 % chance to see viOLet vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.12 % chance to see ForGG vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.1 % chance to see Polt vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.1 % chance to see Bomber vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.08 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.04 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.02 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.01 % chance to see Bomber vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 2.01 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.99 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.98 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.96 % chance to see Life vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.94 % chance to see MC vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.94 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.88 % chance to see San vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.87 % chance to see TaeJa vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.82 % chance to see StarDust vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chance to see Zest vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chance to see ForGG vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.77 % chance to see San vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.77 % chance to see Polt vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.76 % chance to see YoDa vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.75 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.75 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.71 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.7 % chance to see Polt vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.65 % chance to see Rain vs HyuN as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.63 % chance to see San vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.62 % chance to see MMA vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.58 % chance to see MC vs VortiX as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.54 % chance to see Polt vs ForGG as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.54 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.52 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.52 % chance to see Scarlett vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.52 % chance to see TaeJa vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.52 % chance to see Scarlett vs San as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.47 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.44 % chance to see MC vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.42 % chance to see VortiX vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.41 % chance to see TaeJa vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.31 % chance to see ForGG vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.31 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.27 % chance to see San vs VortiX as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.21 % chance to see Polt vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.13 % chance to see TaeJa vs VortiX as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.12 % chance to see YoDa vs Zest as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 1.01 % chance to see Polt vs VortiX as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.86 % chance to see Bomber vs StarDust as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.84 % chance to see Bomber vs Polt as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.7 % chance to see TaeJa vs ForGG as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.44 % chance to see Bomber vs YoDa as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.26 % chance to see MC vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.12 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.06 % chance to see HyuN vs Scarlett as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.03 % chance to see HyuN vs Solar as a first match at Blizzcon. ~ 0.03 % chance to see sOs vs soO as a first match at Blizzcon.
KeSPA Cup - Classic is at ~ 63.33 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.86 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.82 %. ~ 43.14 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 16.56 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Rogue is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.14 % of the time Rogue wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 56.86 % of the time Rogue loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.27 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.73 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ByuL is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.73 % of the time ByuL wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 64.27 % of the time ByuL loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.87 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 34.13 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 27.19 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.13 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 57.58 %. ~ 65.87 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 11.45 %.
KeSPA Cup - sOs is at ~ 74.33 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.28 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 91.03 %. ~ 36.72 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 45.54 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reality is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.72 % of the time Reality wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.28 % of the time Reality loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Flash is at ~ 3.69 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.34 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.21 %. ~ 40.66 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarDust is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.66 % of the time StarDust wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 59.34 % of the time StarDust loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
KeSPA Cup soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 81.61 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.22 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.68 %. ~ 42.78 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 57.45 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Super is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.78 % of the time Super wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 57.22 % of the time Super loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - herO is at ~ 44.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.88 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 59.38 %. ~ 26.12 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.56 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sorry is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.12 % of the time Sorry wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.88 % of the time Sorry loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Rain is at ~ 33.43 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.58 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 43.37 %. ~ 39.42 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 18.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.42 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 60.58 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
Winning Chances Zest has a ~ 13.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 12.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 33.43 % to ~ 99.99 % Flash has a ~ 12.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 30.19 % herO has a ~ 10.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.54 % to ~ 100 % sOs has a ~ 8.85 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 74.33 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
San has a ~ 8.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 5.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 81.61 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 5.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 5.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 4.96 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 63.33 % to ~ 100 % ByuL has a ~ 2.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 27.19 % to ~ 100 % Super has a ~ 2.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Rogue has a ~ 2.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.31 % Reality has a ~ 2.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Sorry has a ~ 0.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
Pigbaby would gain ~ 72.81 % if they win, with a ~ 2.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 27.19 % to ~ 100 % Rain would gain ~ 66.57 % if they win, with a ~ 12.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 33.43 % to ~ 99.99 % herO would gain ~ 55.46 % if they win, with a ~ 10.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.54 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 36.67 % if they win, with a ~ 4.96 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.33 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 26.5 % if they win, with a ~ 12.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 30.19 % sOs would gain ~ 25.67 % if they win, with a ~ 8.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 74.33 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 18.39 % if they win, with a ~ 5.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 81.61 % to ~ 100 % Rogue would gain ~ 0.3 % if they win, with a ~ 2.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.31 % Reality would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % ByuL would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Super would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Sorry would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.44 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Players Who Secure Their Blizzcon Spot By Winning (over 99%) Pigbaby would gain ~ 72.81 % if they win, with a ~ 2.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 27.19 % to ~ 100 % Rain would gain ~ 66.57 % if they win, with a ~ 12.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 33.43 % to ~ 99.99 % herO would gain ~ 55.46 % if they win, with a ~ 10.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.54 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 36.67 % if they win, with a ~ 4.96 % chance to win, going from ~ 63.33 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 25.67 % if they win, with a ~ 8.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 74.33 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 18.39 % if they win, with a ~ 5.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 81.61 % to ~ 100 %
Flash is the only one who falls below 1% chances if he doesn't win, even with a 2nd place ~ 87.98 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.07 %
~ 7.35 % of the time Flash gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.66 %
~ 12.02 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 30.19 %
On September 11 2014 15:07 Elite_ wrote: What happened to how much the other players are affected by the outcome of each match? I really liked that about last year's simulation.
Example: "If Classic wins over Rogue, jjakji goes from ~72% to X%"
you mean like this?
~ 56.88 % of the time Classic wins their next match in KeSPA Cup ro16 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 64.01 %
On September 11 2014 15:07 Elite_ wrote: What happened to how much the other players are affected by the outcome of each match? I really liked that about last year's simulation.
Example: "If Classic wins over Rogue, jjakji goes from ~72% to X%"
you mean like this?
~ 56.88 % of the time Classic wins their next match in KeSPA Cup ro16 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 64.01 %
Thanks! I didn't see anything involving other player's statistics when I checked tournament and player pages earlier on in the year. Probably should have checked now that every WCS Season 3 is past the Ro32.
Biggest Winners Classic went up by ~ 35.52 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 98.89 % sOs went up by ~ 14.68 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 88.99 % Flash went up by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 4.34 %
Biggest Losers Pigbaby went down by ~ 17.84 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 9.32 % jjakji went down by ~ 6.58 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 66.1 % Heart went down by ~ 4.93 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 0.01 % Snute went down by ~ 4.44 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 30.24 % herO went down by ~ 4.39 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 40.12 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
soO went down by ~ 2.13 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 79.51 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % Rain went down by ~ 1.58 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 31.72 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.43 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 22.12 % MMA went down by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 17.09 % Jaedong went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 97.01 % Solar went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 13.76 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.48 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 10.17 % HerO went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 3.99 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 12.59 % HuK went down by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 4.52 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.24 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.88 % Cure went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.76 % Happy went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 2.12 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 11.99 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.78 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 3.93 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.99 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 14.98 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 64.94 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 86.05 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,600 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
KeSPA Cup soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 79.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.21 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.58 %. ~ 42.79 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 52.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Super is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.79 % of the time Super wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 57.21 % of the time Super loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - herO is at ~ 40.12 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.85 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 53.5 %. ~ 26.15 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sorry is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.15 % of the time Sorry wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.85 % of the time Sorry loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Rain is at ~ 31.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.22 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 41.01 %. ~ 39.78 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 17.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.78 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 60.22 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
KeSPA Cup - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.23 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 46.77 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 98.89 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.77 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.81 %. ~ 53.23 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 98.08 %.
KeSPA Cup - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.74 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 42.26 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 88.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.26 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.1 %. ~ 57.74 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 81.6 %.
Winning Chances Zest has a ~ 19.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 18.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.34 % to ~ 22.57 % sOs has a ~ 11.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.02 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 11.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 31.7 % to ~ 99.99 % San has a ~ 10.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
herO has a ~ 8.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.11 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 7.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.89 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 4.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 4.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 79.5 % to ~ 100 % Super has a ~ 2.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Sorry has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Rain would gain ~ 68.3 % if they win, with a ~ 11.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 31.7 % to ~ 99.99 % herO would gain ~ 59.89 % if they win, with a ~ 8.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 40.11 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 20.5 % if they win, with a ~ 4.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 79.5 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 18.23 % if they win, with a ~ 18.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.34 % to ~ 22.57 % sOs would gain ~ 10.98 % if they win, with a ~ 11.7 % chance to win, going from ~ 89.02 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 1.11 % if they win, with a ~ 7.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.89 % to ~ 100 % Super would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 19.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sorry would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Players Who Secure Their Blizzcon Spot By Winning (over 99%) Rain would gain ~ 68.3 % if they win, with a ~ 11.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 31.7 % to ~ 99.99 % herO would gain ~ 59.89 % if they win, with a ~ 8.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 40.11 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 20.5 % if they win, with a ~ 4.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 79.5 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 10.98 % if they win, with a ~ 11.7 % chance to win, going from ~ 89.02 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 1.11 % if they win, with a ~ 7.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.89 % to ~ 100 %
Yes I will also add that today when I fix the WCS AM thing. They're not seeding anyone into group stage 2 this time? I guess it's just gonna be group stage 1 to 2 and then to brackets.
Yes I will also add that today when I fix the WCS AM thing. They're not seeding anyone into group stage 2 this time? I guess it's just gonna be group stage 1 to 2 and then to brackets.
Yes, Dreamhacks with people in group stage 2 had 96 players, this one has 64. So the old group stage 1 vanishes.
Biggest Winners Classic went up by ~ 33.99 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 97.36 % sOs went up by ~ 13.29 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 87.6 % jjakji went up by ~ 13.18 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 85.86 % Heart went up by ~ 2.28 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 7.21 % Flash went up by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 3.89 %
Biggest Losers Pigbaby went down by ~ 19.28 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 7.88 % herO went down by ~ 8.63 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 35.88 % Jaedong went down by ~ 5.31 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 92.34 % soO went down by ~ 4.89 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 76.75 % Snute went down by ~ 4.17 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 30.51 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
viOLet went down by ~ 3.67 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 19.88 % Solar went down by ~ 2.71 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 11.56 % Rain went down by ~ 2.54 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 30.76 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % MMA went down by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 16.72 % HuK went down by ~ 1.44 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 3.33 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.57 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 9.78 % HerO went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 3.63 % Life went down by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 99.17 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.61 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 2.05 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.39 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 3.67 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 11.84 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.82 % Cure went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.7 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.92 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.75 % Happy went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 2.15 % Dear went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.83 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 48.64 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 73.7 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
KeSPA Cup soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 76.76 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.23 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.96 %. ~ 42.77 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 47.04 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Super is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.77 % of the time Super wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 57.23 % of the time Super loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - herO is at ~ 35.87 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.93 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 47.73 %. ~ 26.07 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sorry is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.07 % of the time Sorry wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.93 % of the time Sorry loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - Rain is at ~ 30.76 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.29 % of the time Rain wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 39.57 %. ~ 39.71 % of the time Rain loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 17.38 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.71 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 60.29 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
KeSPA Cup - San is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.22 % of the time San wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 46.78 % of the time San loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 97.37 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.78 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.86 %. ~ 53.22 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 95.17 %.
KeSPA Cup - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.77 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 42.23 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sOs is at ~ 87.6 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.23 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 97.7 %. ~ 57.77 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 80.21 %.
Winning Chances Zest has a ~ 20.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 18.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.89 % to ~ 20.68 % sOs has a ~ 11.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.6 % to ~ 100 % Rain has a ~ 11.27 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 30.76 % to ~ 99.99 % San has a ~ 10.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
herO has a ~ 8.95 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 100 % Classic has a ~ 7.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 97.37 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 4.69 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 4.54 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 100 % Super has a ~ 2.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Sorry has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Rain would gain ~ 69.24 % if they win, with a ~ 11.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.76 % to ~ 99.99 % herO would gain ~ 64.13 % if they win, with a ~ 8.95 % chance to win, going from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 23.24 % if they win, with a ~ 4.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 16.79 % if they win, with a ~ 18.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.89 % to ~ 20.68 % sOs would gain ~ 12.4 % if they win, with a ~ 11.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 87.6 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 2.63 % if they win, with a ~ 7.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 97.37 % to ~ 100 % Super would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 20.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % San would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sorry would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Players Who Secure Their Blizzcon Spot By Winning (over 99%) Rain would gain ~ 69.24 % if they win, with a ~ 11.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.76 % to ~ 99.99 % herO would gain ~ 64.13 % if they win, with a ~ 8.95 % chance to win, going from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 23.24 % if they win, with a ~ 4.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 100 % sOs would gain ~ 12.4 % if they win, with a ~ 11.69 % chance to win, going from ~ 87.6 % to ~ 100 % Classic would gain ~ 2.63 % if they win, with a ~ 7.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 97.37 % to ~ 100 %
~ 13.61 % of the time Flash gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.89 % to ~ 0.42 %
~ 18.5 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.89 % to ~ 20.68 %
If soO wins his match against Super, then he's basically secured his Blizzcon spot! And remember he still has the #2 headband! + Show Spoiler [Other Stats] +
~ 9.66 % of the time herO gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 97.41 %
~ 47.3 % of the time soO doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 52.12 %
~ 52.7 % of the time soO gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 98.88 %
~ 26.78 % of the time herO gets 2nd or 4th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 71.32 %
~ 45.99 % of the time soO gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 98.71 %
~ 0.01 % of the time soO doesn't get 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 58.06 %
~ 36.81 % of the time Super gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 46.31 %
~ 40.65 % of the time Super gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 46.81 %
~ 59.35 % of the time Super doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 97.27 %
~ 27.88 % of the time Super gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 46.63 %
~ 63.19 % of the time Super doesn't get 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 94.49 %
~ 32.51 % of the time soO gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 98.22 %
~ 23.51 % of the time Rain gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 67.89 %
~ 24.47 % of the time Sorry gets 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 2.21 %
~ 38.2 % of the time herO gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 18.93 %
~ 25.69 % of the time Sorry gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 2.23 %
~ 19.75 % of the time Sorry gets 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 2.19 %
~ 61.8 % of the time herO doesn't get 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 46.34 %
~ 73.22 % of the time herO doesn't get 2nd or 4th in KeSPA Cup This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 35.87 % to ~ 22.9 %
~ 67.49 % of the time soO doesn't get 8th in KeSPA Cup This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 76.76 % to ~ 66.42 %
On September 12 2014 20:58 opisska wrote: 4ever.tv has 500 Internal server error. WHY NOW?!
sorry, my server has like no ram and so mysql crashed while I was sleeping
You are the last person to be sorry about anything Now that the run for points is heading towards the finish line, the Predictor absolutely rocks!
I have ensured this problem should not happen again! (while [ 1 ]; do service mysql start ; sleep 60 ; done) working on KeSPA Cup Day 3 previews and Dreamhack Moscow Day 1 previews now
Biggest Winners Classic went up by ~ 36.61 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.98 % jjakji went up by ~ 18.56 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 91.24 % herO went up by ~ 13.18 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 57.69 % sOs went up by ~ 9.68 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 83.99 % Heart went up by ~ 3.03 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 7.96 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Flash went up by ~ 1.53 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 5.22 % INnoVation went up by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 19.22 % Happy went up by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 2.42 %
Biggest Losers soO went down by ~ 36.94 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 44.7 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 18.09 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 9.07 % Rain went down by ~ 15.49 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 17.81 % Solar went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 11.58 % viOLet went down by ~ 2.27 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 21.28 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.09 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.82 % Jaedong went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 96.73 % HuK went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 4.07 % HerO went down by ~ 0.49 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 3.93 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 10.24 % Life went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 99.56 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 3.85 % Snute went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 34.49 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 11.99 % Dear went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 % Cure went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.84 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 2.56 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.24 % of the time 2,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.86 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 58.38 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 85.94 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
KeSPA Cup Super has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Flash is at ~ 5.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.84 % of the time Flash wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 8.17 %. ~ 36.16 % of the time Flash loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Super is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.16 % of the time Super wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.84 % of the time Super loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
KeSPA Cup - herO is at ~ 57.69 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.21 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 84.61 %. ~ 48.79 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 29.44 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.79 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 51.21 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
KeSPA Cup - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.19 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 36.81 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 99.98 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.81 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 63.19 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.97 %.
Winning Chances Zest has a ~ 34.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Flash has a ~ 20.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.22 % to ~ 24.94 % Classic has a ~ 16.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.98 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 12.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % herO has a ~ 11.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.69 % to ~ 100 % Super has a ~ 5.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % + Show Spoiler [Winning Gains] +
herO would gain ~ 42.31 % if they win, with a ~ 11.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 57.69 % to ~ 100 % Flash would gain ~ 19.72 % if they win, with a ~ 20.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.22 % to ~ 24.94 % Classic would gain ~ 0.02 % if they win, with a ~ 16.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.98 % to ~ 100 % Super would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 5.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Zest would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 34.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 12.31 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Players Who Secure Their Blizzcon Spot By Winning (over 99%) herO would gain ~ 42.31 % if they win, with a ~ 11.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 57.69 % to ~ 100 %
DreamHack Moscow - Snute is at ~ 34.46 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 92.9 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 36.73 %. ~ 7.1 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.88 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Increase is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.03 % of the time Increase wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 59.97 % of the time Increase loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - zerg is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.99 % of the time zerg wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 60.01 % of the time zerg loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ludasha is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 27.07 % of the time ludasha wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 72.93 % of the time ludasha loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Bly is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 89.43 % of the time Bly wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 10.57 % of the time Bly loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - enigma is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.81 % of the time enigma wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 56.19 % of the time enigma loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SpellSinger is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.92 % of the time SpellSinger wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 60.08 % of the time SpellSinger loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - KingCobra is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.84 % of the time KingCobra wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.16 % of the time KingCobra loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Patience is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 87.13 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 12.87 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TargA is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 79.27 % of the time TargA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 20.73 % of the time TargA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MefiSTo is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.08 % of the time MefiSTo wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 80.92 % of the time MefiSTo loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - outbreak is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.52 % of the time outbreak wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 85.48 % of the time outbreak loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 93.02 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 6.98 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Adonminus is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.61 % of the time Adonminus wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 39.39 % of the time Adonminus loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - omni is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.84 % of the time omni wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 74.16 % of the time omni loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - antik is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 20.52 % of the time antik wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 79.48 % of the time antik loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - TRUE is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 83.9 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 16.1 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - elfi is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 77.33 % of the time elfi wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 22.67 % of the time elfi loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - delilah is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.42 % of the time delilah wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 80.58 % of the time delilah loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - bazz is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.35 % of the time bazz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 80.65 % of the time bazz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - First is at ~ 0.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 91.79 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 8.21 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Brat_OK is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.45 % of the time Brat_OK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 36.55 % of the time Brat_OK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - AvaTaR is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 22.73 % of the time AvaTaR wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 77.27 % of the time AvaTaR loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Couguar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 22.03 % of the time Couguar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 77.97 % of the time Couguar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - YoDa is at ~ 10.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 87.81 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.85 %. ~ 12.19 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.91 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Serral is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.05 % of the time Serral wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 37.95 % of the time Serral loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - gsom is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.99 % of the time gsom wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 74.01 % of the time gsom loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sambotto is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 24.14 % of the time sambotto wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 75.86 % of the time sambotto loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Kas is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 78.37 % of the time Kas wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 21.63 % of the time Kas loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DMC is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.27 % of the time DMC wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 42.73 % of the time DMC loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Noname is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.61 % of the time Noname wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 56.39 % of the time Noname loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - RusZerg is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 20.74 % of the time RusZerg wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 79.26 % of the time RusZerg loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Oz is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.2 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 19.8 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revolver is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.97 % of the time Revolver wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 33.03 % of the time Revolver loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - elmatador is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.6 % of the time elmatador wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.4 % of the time elmatador loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Easy is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.24 % of the time Easy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.76 % of the time Easy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - jjakji is at ~ 91.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 94.42 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 92.25 %. ~ 5.58 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 74.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hades is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.05 % of the time hades wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.95 % of the time hades loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - rose is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.96 % of the time rose wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 63.04 % of the time rose loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - quasar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.57 % of the time quasar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.43 % of the time quasar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - MMA is at ~ 18.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 90.3 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 19.19 %. ~ 9.7 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 9.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.39 % of the time LiveZerg wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 24.61 % of the time LiveZerg loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - huligan is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 22.85 % of the time huligan wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 77.15 % of the time huligan loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hotspur is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.46 % of the time Hotspur wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 88.54 % of the time Hotspur loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Daisy is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 91.68 % of the time Daisy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 8.32 % of the time Daisy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - kolobok is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.64 % of the time kolobok wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 43.36 % of the time kolobok loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LuckyGnom is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.86 % of the time LuckyGnom wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 74.14 % of the time LuckyGnom loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ZhuGeLiang is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.82 % of the time ZhuGeLiang wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 74.18 % of the time ZhuGeLiang loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Welmu is at ~ 3.92 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 81.17 % of the time Welmu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.01 %. ~ 18.83 % of the time Welmu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.5 %. ------------------------------------------------- - fraer is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.83 % of the time fraer wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 25.17 % of the time fraer loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - lomany is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 22.58 % of the time lomany wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 77.42 % of the time lomany loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - enlessstorm is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 21.41 % of the time enlessstorm wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 78.59 % of the time enlessstorm loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - BBoongBBoong is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 77.83 % of the time BBoongBBoong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 22.17 % of the time BBoongBBoong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sLivko is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.28 % of the time sLivko wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 33.72 % of the time sLivko loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - lefort is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 29.04 % of the time lefort wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 70.96 % of the time lefort loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - woolenfish is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.85 % of the time woolenfish wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.15 % of the time woolenfish loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Happy is at ~ 2.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 92.77 % of the time Happy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.59 %. ~ 7.23 % of the time Happy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hobot is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.17 % of the time hobot wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 50.83 % of the time hobot loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - wnight is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.16 % of the time wnight wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 65.84 % of the time wnight loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MindelVK is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 23.9 % of the time MindelVK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 76.1 % of the time MindelVK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Golden is at ~ 4.96 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 92.6 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.98 %. ~ 7.4 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - aling is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.57 % of the time aling wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.43 % of the time aling loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - evilnw is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.52 % of the time evilnw wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 65.48 % of the time evilnw loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Creed is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 27.31 % of the time Creed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 72.69 % of the time Creed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances jjakji has a ~ 10.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.25 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 10.71 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % YoDa has a ~ 10.63 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.24 % to ~ 13.54 % First has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.31 % Snute has a ~ 7.36 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 34.46 % to ~ 99.99 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Patience has a ~ 6.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Happy has a ~ 6.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 8.01 % MMA has a ~ 6.08 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.22 % to ~ 65.76 % Golden has a ~ 4.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.96 % to ~ 8.7 % TRUE has a ~ 4.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.28 % TargA has a ~ 3.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Welmu has a ~ 3.24 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.92 % to ~ 12.1 % Daisy has a ~ 2.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bly has a ~ 2.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kas has a ~ 2.18 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi has a ~ 2.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz has a ~ 1.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.39 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 1.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Serral has a ~ 1.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer has a ~ 1.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko has a ~ 0.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK has a ~ 0.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver has a ~ 0.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DMC has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Noname has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % SpellSinger has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % hades has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Snute would gain ~ 65.53 % if they win, with a ~ 7.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 34.46 % to ~ 99.99 % MMA would gain ~ 47.53 % if they win, with a ~ 6.08 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.22 % to ~ 65.76 % jjakji would gain ~ 8.75 % if they win, with a ~ 10.83 % chance to win, going from ~ 91.25 % to ~ 100 % Welmu would gain ~ 8.18 % if they win, with a ~ 3.24 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.92 % to ~ 12.1 % Happy would gain ~ 5.59 % if they win, with a ~ 6.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 8.01 % Golden would gain ~ 3.74 % if they win, with a ~ 4.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.96 % to ~ 8.7 % YoDa would gain ~ 3.3 % if they win, with a ~ 10.63 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.24 % to ~ 13.54 % Oz would gain ~ 0.38 % if they win, with a ~ 1.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.39 % First would gain ~ 0.29 % if they win, with a ~ 7.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.31 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.26 % if they win, with a ~ 4.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.28 % Patience would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 6.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % SpellSinger would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.03 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DMC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Noname would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % hades would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Serral would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % BBoongBBoong would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kas would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bly would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.71 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Players Who Secure Their Blizzcon Spot By Winning (over 99%) Snute would gain ~ 65.53 % if they win, with a ~ 7.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 34.46 % to ~ 99.99 % jjakji would gain ~ 8.75 % if they win, with a ~ 10.83 % chance to win, going from ~ 91.25 % to ~ 100 %
On September 13 2014 01:03 Koerage wrote: im surprised Zest has such a massive lead in the win% - is it because there are so many toss left but none are great at PvP?
it's mostly because him and Classic are already in the semifinals while the rest of the players are only in the quarterfinals
On September 13 2014 01:51 opisska wrote: So in principle, we could still have three foreigners in Blizzcon. Only three simple conditions need to be met:
- Snute wins DH - Scarlett wins AM - Bunny/Vortix/Welmu wins EU
Snute really screwed up big time by getting eliminated from WCS EU, otherwise he in a pretty great spot courtesy of our dear friend Classic
~ 63.69 % chances of 1+ foreigners at Blizzcon ~ 15.1 % for 2+ ~ 0.93 % for 3+ ~ 0.01% for 4+ ~ 0 % for 5+
On September 13 2014 01:51 opisska wrote: So in principle, we could still have three foreigners in Blizzcon. Only three simple conditions need to be met:
- Snute wins DH - Scarlett wins AM - Bunny/Vortix/Welmu wins EU
Snute really screwed up big time by getting eliminated from WCS EU, otherwise he in a pretty great spot courtesy of our dear friend Classic
~ 63.69 % chances of 1+ foreigners at Blizzcon ~ 15.1 % for 2+ ~ 0.93 % for 3+ ~ 0.01% for 4+ ~ 0 % for 5+
Yeah, I was never saying that fulfilling said conditions is somehow likely
On September 13 2014 01:57 The_Templar wrote: I want to know under what conditions there can be 4 foreigners at blizzcon.
it probably requires that Placeholder Tournament to happen, with Snute winning DHMoscow, Scarlett winning Red Bull, and then Bunny and Vortix winning DH Stockholm and the Placeholder Tournament, maybe something like that. Also Huk can still win WCS AM and make it, Scarlett too.
On September 13 2014 01:58 lastride wrote: If flash wins kespa cup,does he make it to blizzcon?
~ 20.57 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 24.9 %
~ 14.86 % of the time Flash gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 0.51 %
On September 13 2014 01:57 The_Templar wrote: I want to know under what conditions there can be 4 foreigners at blizzcon.
it probably requires that Placeholder Tournament to happen, with Snute winning DHMoscow, Scarlett winning Red Bull, and then Bunny and Vortix winning DH Stockholm and the Placeholder Tournament, maybe something like that. Also Huk can still win WCS AM and make it, Scarlett too.
On September 13 2014 01:57 The_Templar wrote: I want to know under what conditions there can be 4 foreigners at blizzcon.
it probably requires that Placeholder Tournament to happen, with Snute winning DHMoscow, Scarlett winning Red Bull, and then Bunny and Vortix winning DH Stockholm and the Placeholder Tournament, maybe something like that. Also Huk can still win WCS AM and make it, Scarlett too.
On September 13 2014 01:58 lastride wrote: If flash wins kespa cup,does he make it to blizzcon?
~ 20.57 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 24.9 %
~ 14.86 % of the time Flash gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 0.51 %
What is the Placeholder Tournament ? o_o
The placeholder for a tournament giving out WCS points, that could theoretically get announced and get played between now and Blizzcon.
On September 13 2014 01:57 The_Templar wrote: I want to know under what conditions there can be 4 foreigners at blizzcon.
it probably requires that Placeholder Tournament to happen, with Snute winning DHMoscow, Scarlett winning Red Bull, and then Bunny and Vortix winning DH Stockholm and the Placeholder Tournament, maybe something like that. Also Huk can still win WCS AM and make it, Scarlett too.
On September 13 2014 01:58 lastride wrote: If flash wins kespa cup,does he make it to blizzcon?
~ 20.57 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 24.9 %
~ 14.86 % of the time Flash gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 0.51 %
What is the Placeholder Tournament ? o_o
A tournament that wonderful Mr. 4Ever has been using to simulate any additional unannounced tournaments that may be popping up. He had 2 for most of the year, but cut it down to 1 now that we're so close to the end.
On September 13 2014 01:57 The_Templar wrote: I want to know under what conditions there can be 4 foreigners at blizzcon.
it probably requires that Placeholder Tournament to happen, with Snute winning DHMoscow, Scarlett winning Red Bull, and then Bunny and Vortix winning DH Stockholm and the Placeholder Tournament, maybe something like that. Also Huk can still win WCS AM and make it, Scarlett too.
On September 13 2014 01:58 lastride wrote: If flash wins kespa cup,does he make it to blizzcon?
~ 20.57 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 24.9 %
~ 14.86 % of the time Flash gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 0.51 %
What is the Placeholder Tournament ? o_o
it's a tournament that exists in the simulation 25% of the time with randomized players, just in case another tournament is announced, it mostly prevents premature 0% or 100% chances, I will probably remove it completely at the end of this month
Since every player in the Top 16 still plays at Blizzcon, I think you're OK.
nice loophole with the exhibition matches! thanks lol, I might still need to change the text for this though ~ 20.75 % chance to see Life vs MC as a first match at Blizzcon. maybe to ~ 20.75 % chance to see Life vs MC as a first match at WCS Finals.
for Flash to make it to the finals he probably would also have to go to and do well @DH Stockholm, because even if he wins KespaCup he "only" hits 14th in the current rankings (because Bomber didnt win against herO, so herO now has more point than Flash can get), but Snute still has Moscow (and prolly Stockholm) to get some more points and quite alot of people from 15-25 are still in WCS and could knock him out quite easily. There is no playerlist known yet for Stockholm, is there? Do you guys think that Flash will go to Stockholm should he win Kespa?
On September 13 2014 17:24 Koerage wrote: for Flash to make it to the finals he probably would also have to go to and do well @DH Stockholm, because even if he wins KespaCup he "only" hits 14th in the current rankings (because Bomber didnt win against herO, so herO now has more point than Flash can get), but Snute still has Moscow (and prolly Stockholm) to get some more points and quite alot of people from 15-25 are still in WCS and could knock him out quite easily. There is no playerlist known yet for Stockholm, is there? Do you guys think that Flash will go to Stockholm should he win Kespa?
yea I think he would go to Stockholm, but only if he wins the KeSPA Cup, certainly he would know how close he would be and I'm sure he can convince KeSPA (it's Flash...) to let him go to Dreamhack so he can go to Blizzcon lol
Biggest Winners During KeSPA Cup herO went up by ~ 54.51 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 99.02 % Classic went up by ~ 36.57 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.93 % jjakji went up by ~ 13.6 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 86.28 % sOs went up by ~ 4.72 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 79.03 % Heart went up by ~ 2.37 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 7.3 %
Biggest Losers During KeSPA Cup soO went down by ~ 43.59 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 38.05 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 19.48 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 7.68 % Rain went down by ~ 16.45 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 16.85 % viOLet went down by ~ 4.94 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 18.61 % Jaedong went down by ~ 4.08 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 93.58 % Flash went down by ~ 3.67 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.02 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Solar went down by ~ 3.41 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 10.86 % Snute went down by ~ 3.08 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 31.6 % MMA went down by ~ 2.47 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 15.8 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % HuK went down by ~ 1.36 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 3.4 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.58 % HerO went down by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 3.61 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 9.87 % Life went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 99.19 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 3.38 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.49 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 2.17 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.39 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.73 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.74 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 11.8 % Happy went down by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 1.99 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.73 % Cure went down by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.82 % Dear went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 % Golden went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 4.83 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.31 % of the time 2,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 11.05 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.9 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 74.75 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
On September 13 2014 19:20 Koerage wrote: what's the 0.02% scenario where flash still qualifies? im just curious how he can get high enough to even get current top-16
Something along the lines of: wins placeholder tournament, wins dreamhack stockholm, and everyone else does really badly
On September 13 2014 19:47 GumBa wrote: So if INno wins GSL he is almost garantueed atleast top 16 right? He would have like 3.7k points
This happens ~ 18.46 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.75 % to ~ 99.99 %
Yes. There's just a little bit at stake though… This happens ~ 81.54 % of the time INnoVation doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 18.75 % to ~ 0.36 %
DreamHack Moscow - Happy is at ~ 2.03 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.51 % of the time Happy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.64 %. ~ 25.49 % of the time Happy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 4.84 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.04 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.97 %. ~ 25.96 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Adonminus is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.48 % of the time Adonminus wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 64.52 % of the time Adonminus loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ludasha is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 15.97 % of the time ludasha wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 84.03 % of the time ludasha loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - YoDa is at ~ 9.14 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 68.62 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 11.32 %. ~ 31.38 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - First is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.52 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 32.48 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - elfi is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.66 % of the time elfi wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 42.34 % of the time elfi loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ZhuGeLiang is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 6.21 % of the time ZhuGeLiang wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 93.79 % of the time ZhuGeLiang loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - TargA is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.88 % of the time TargA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 46.12 % of the time TargA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 3.76 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.88 % of the time Welmu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.01 %. ~ 48.12 % of the time Welmu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Kas is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.83 % of the time Kas wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 51.17 % of the time Kas loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bly is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.41 % of the time Bly wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.59 % of the time Bly loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - jjakji is at ~ 86.76 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 76.96 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 93.55 %. ~ 23.04 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 64.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 15.8 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 68.79 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 19.3 %. ~ 31.21 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 8.1 %. ------------------------------------------------- - sLivko is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.7 % of the time sLivko wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 71.3 % of the time sLivko loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revolver is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 25.55 % of the time Revolver wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 74.45 % of the time Revolver loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - LiveZerg is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.61 % of the time LiveZerg wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 35.39 % of the time LiveZerg loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BBoongBBoong is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.69 % of the time BBoongBBoong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 36.31 % of the time BBoongBBoong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.76 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 43.24 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - KpeHgeJlb is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.94 % of the time KpeHgeJlb wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 85.06 % of the time KpeHgeJlb loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Patience is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 82.21 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 17.79 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - fraer is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.51 % of the time fraer wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 27.49 % of the time fraer loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DMC is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.64 % of the time DMC wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 66.36 % of the time DMC loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - KingCobra is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.64 % of the time KingCobra wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 88.36 % of the time KingCobra loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - TRUE is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.25 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 25.75 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Daisy is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.23 % of the time Daisy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 34.77 % of the time Daisy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Serral is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.69 % of the time Serral wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 50.31 % of the time Serral loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Couguar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 10.82 % of the time Couguar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 89.18 % of the time Couguar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 94.08 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 5.92 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 37.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 92.02 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 40.42 %. ~ 7.98 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.72 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Creed is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 7.46 % of the time Creed wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 92.54 % of the time Creed loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MindelVK is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 6.44 % of the time MindelVK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 93.56 % of the time MindelVK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances HyuN has a ~ 12.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 10.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 86.76 % to ~ 100 % YoDa has a ~ 9.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.14 % to ~ 13.38 % Snute has a ~ 8.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.57 % to ~ 99.99 % Patience has a ~ 7.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
First has a ~ 6.74 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.17 % Happy has a ~ 6.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.03 % to ~ 8.14 % MMA has a ~ 5.64 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.8 % to ~ 58.86 % Golden has a ~ 4.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.84 % to ~ 7.59 % TRUE has a ~ 4.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.16 % TargA has a ~ 2.86 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy has a ~ 2.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Welmu has a ~ 2.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.76 % to ~ 10.28 % elfi has a ~ 2.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer has a ~ 1.94 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kas has a ~ 1.89 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz has a ~ 1.8 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.33 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Bly has a ~ 1.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Serral has a ~ 1.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg has a ~ 1.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko has a ~ 0.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver has a ~ 0.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DMC has a ~ 0.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus has a ~ 0.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 62.43 % if they win, with a ~ 8.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 37.57 % to ~ 99.99 % MMA would gain ~ 43.05 % if they win, with a ~ 5.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 15.8 % to ~ 58.86 % jjakji would gain ~ 13.24 % if they win, with a ~ 10.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 86.76 % to ~ 100 % Welmu would gain ~ 6.53 % if they win, with a ~ 2.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.76 % to ~ 10.28 % Happy would gain ~ 6.12 % if they win, with a ~ 6.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.03 % to ~ 8.14 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa would gain ~ 4.24 % if they win, with a ~ 9.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.14 % to ~ 13.38 % Golden would gain ~ 2.75 % if they win, with a ~ 4.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.84 % to ~ 7.59 % Oz would gain ~ 0.32 % if they win, with a ~ 1.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.33 % First would gain ~ 0.16 % if they win, with a ~ 6.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.17 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.15 % if they win, with a ~ 4.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.16 % Patience would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 7.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Serral would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DMC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 12.52 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bly would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % BBoongBBoong would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.73 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kas would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.94 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
On September 13 2014 01:57 The_Templar wrote: I want to know under what conditions there can be 4 foreigners at blizzcon.
it probably requires that Placeholder Tournament to happen, with Snute winning DHMoscow, Scarlett winning Red Bull, and then Bunny and Vortix winning DH Stockholm and the Placeholder Tournament, maybe something like that. Also Huk can still win WCS AM and make it, Scarlett too.
On September 13 2014 01:58 lastride wrote: If flash wins kespa cup,does he make it to blizzcon?
~ 20.57 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 24.9 %
~ 14.86 % of the time Flash gets 2nd in KeSPA Cup This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.21 % to ~ 0.51 %
What is the Placeholder Tournament ? o_o
it's a tournament that exists in the simulation 25% of the time with randomized players, just in case another tournament is announced, it mostly prevents premature 0% or 100% chances, I will probably remove it completely at the end of this month
Biggest Winners herO went up by ~ 54.3 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 98.81 % Classic went up by ~ 36.54 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.9 % jjakji went up by ~ 19.25 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 91.93 % Snute went up by ~ 6.31 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 40.99 % Heart went up by ~ 2.15 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 7.08 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
sOs went up by ~ 1.57 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 75.88 % YoDa went up by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 11.66 % Happy went up by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 2.57 %
Biggest Losers soO went down by ~ 50.64 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 30.99 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 20.19 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 6.97 % Rain went down by ~ 16.65 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 16.65 % Jaedong went down by ~ 6.42 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 91.23 % viOLet went down by ~ 6.17 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 17.38 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Solar went down by ~ 3.69 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 10.58 % Flash went down by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.01 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % HuK went down by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 2.96 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.59 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.32 % HerO went down by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 3.19 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 3.04 % Life went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 98.96 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.95 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 11.2 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 1.77 % Golden went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 4.29 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.53 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.43 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 6.1 % to ~ 5.75 % MMA went down by ~ 0.33 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 17.94 % Cure went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.68 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.9 % Dear went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 % TLO went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 1.35 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,625 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (a week ago 2,275 points was the highest with 0% chances) ~ 1.83 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 7.02 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 23.52 % a week ago) ~ 45.83 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 70.32 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 89.1 % a week ago) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,600 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon The point cuttoffs are moving up!
Current Top 25 By Chances
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
DreamHack Moscow - Patience is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.03 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 33.97 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Adonminus is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.97 % of the time Adonminus wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 66.03 % of the time Adonminus loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - YoDa is at ~ 11.66 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.48 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.83 %. ~ 44.52 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 8.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 17.94 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.52 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 26.57 %. ~ 55.48 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 11.02 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Daisy is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.64 % of the time Daisy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 48.36 % of the time Daisy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TargA is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.36 % of the time TargA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 51.64 % of the time TargA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Snute is at ~ 40.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.9 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 52.4 %. ~ 32.1 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 16.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - LiveZerg is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.1 % of the time LiveZerg wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 67.9 % of the time LiveZerg loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.48 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 34.52 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BBoongBBoong is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.52 % of the time BBoongBBoong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 65.48 % of the time BBoongBBoong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Moscow - TRUE is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.86 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 46.14 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 3.8 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.14 % of the time Welmu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.15 %. ~ 53.86 % of the time Welmu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.51 %.
DreamHack Moscow - jjakji is at ~ 91.93 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.55 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.15 %. ~ 47.45 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 85.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - First is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.45 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 52.55 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
DreamHack Moscow - Happy is at ~ 2.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.4 % of the time Happy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.73 %. ~ 34.6 % of the time Happy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.39 %. ------------------------------------------------- - fraer is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.6 % of the time fraer wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 65.4 % of the time fraer loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances YoDa has a ~ 12.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.66 % to ~ 14.73 % HyuN has a ~ 11.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 10.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 100 % Snute has a ~ 9.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 99.99 % Patience has a ~ 9.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Happy has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.57 % to ~ 8.44 % First has a ~ 7.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.13 % MMA has a ~ 6.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.94 % to ~ 59.32 % TRUE has a ~ 5.71 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.15 % TargA has a ~ 4.76 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy has a ~ 3.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Welmu has a ~ 3.73 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.8 % to ~ 9.31 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer has a ~ 1.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg has a ~ 1.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus has a ~ 0.54 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 59.01 % if they win, with a ~ 9.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 99.99 % MMA would gain ~ 41.38 % if they win, with a ~ 6.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.94 % to ~ 59.32 % jjakji would gain ~ 8.07 % if they win, with a ~ 10.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 100 % Happy would gain ~ 5.87 % if they win, with a ~ 7.9 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.57 % to ~ 8.44 % Welmu would gain ~ 5.51 % if they win, with a ~ 3.73 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.8 % to ~ 9.31 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa would gain ~ 3.07 % if they win, with a ~ 12.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.66 % to ~ 14.73 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.14 % if they win, with a ~ 5.71 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.15 % First would gain ~ 0.12 % if they win, with a ~ 7.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.13 % Patience would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 9.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 11.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Daisy would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % BBoongBBoong would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.67 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
(you can see these in the Events tables by using the keyword "simple" to filter with) ~ 9.01 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 86.8 %
~ 29.75 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 25.11 %
~ 70.25 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 47.71 %
~ 19.49 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 54.55 %
~ 90.35 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 34.68 %
~ 6.95 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.94 % to ~ 31.64 %
~ 90.99 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 36.45 %
~ 13.56 % of the time jjakji gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 99.98 %
~ 80.51 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.98 % to ~ 37.7 %
~ 7.46 % of the time jjakji gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 93.01 % of the time MMA doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.94 % to ~ 14.83 %
~ 20.94 % of the time jjakji gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 95.38 %
~ 7.53 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.57 % to ~ 7.05 %
~ 8.74 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.66 % to ~ 14.18 %
~ 89.4 % of the time jjakji doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 90.98 %
~ 93.05 % of the time MMA doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.94 % to ~ 16.92 %
~ 86.44 % of the time jjakji doesn't get 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 90.67 %
~ 79.06 % of the time jjakji doesn't get 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 91.02 %
~ 92.54 % of the time jjakji doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 91.93 % to ~ 91.28 %
~ 35.08 % of the time Happy gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.57 % to ~ 1.77 %
Biggest Winners herO went up by ~ 54.3 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 98.81 % Classic went up by ~ 36.54 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.9 % jjakji went up by ~ 19.25 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 91.93 % Snute went up by ~ 6.31 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 40.99 % Heart went up by ~ 2.15 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 7.08 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
sOs went up by ~ 1.57 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 75.88 % YoDa went up by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 11.66 % Happy went up by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 2.57 %
Biggest Losers soO went down by ~ 50.64 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 30.99 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 20.19 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 6.97 % Rain went down by ~ 16.65 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 16.65 % Jaedong went down by ~ 6.42 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 91.23 % viOLet went down by ~ 6.17 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 17.38 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Solar went down by ~ 3.69 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 10.58 % Flash went down by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.01 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % HuK went down by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 2.96 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.59 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.32 % HerO went down by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 3.19 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.03 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 3.04 % Life went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 98.96 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.95 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 11.2 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 1.77 % Golden went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 4.29 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.53 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.43 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 6.1 % to ~ 5.75 % MMA went down by ~ 0.33 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 17.94 % Cure went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.68 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.9 % Dear went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 % TLO went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 1.35 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,625 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (a week ago 2,275 points was the highest with 0% chances) ~ 1.83 % of the time 2,650 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 7.02 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 23.52 % a week ago) ~ 45.83 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 70.32 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 89.1 % a week ago) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,600 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon The point cuttoffs are moving up!
Current Top 25 By Chances
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
ForGG (Millenium), is at ~ 11.43 %, Min WCS Points: 1675
Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 11.32 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
Bunny (Liquid), is at ~ 11.2 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 10.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
Match Preview Starts in Zest, herO in KeSPA Cup herO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.41 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 40.59 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - herO is at ~ 98.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.59 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 59.41 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 97.99 %.
If herO wins.... This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.96 % to ~ 98.04 % This would change Classic's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.9 % to ~ 99.81 %
If Zest wins.... This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.96 % to ~ 99.59 %
On September 14 2014 22:46 William paradise wrote: If Scarlett is able to win WCS is she guaranteed a spot in blizzcon? Even with DH Stockholm coming up?
Scarlett has a ~ 9.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.04 % to ~ 99.97 % so really close to guaranteed, although this is counting red bull dc giving WCS Points if she wins the first match, so it would be slightly lower if they don't (like ~ 99.8 % or so lol)
after Dreamhack I'm going to make red bull dc only give points 50% of the time since there's STILL been no announcement about it it's still listed as TBD on blizzard's WCS website
On September 14 2014 23:22 opisska wrote: What's "#2 headband"? What do you mean by "if she wins the first match"? It won't be played "battlegrounds style"?
well we don't know the format for red bull yet, but WCS doesn't allow giving points for invited/seeded players unless they advance at least 1 round, the simulation is doing it as an 8 player single elim bracket
copy pasta for the headbands
If you've ever seen Afro Samurai, I want to copy the headbands idea.
It's kind of an extension of the Unofficial World Champion thing. The number 1 headband currently belongs to sOs for winning Blizzcon, the number 2 headband belongs to Jaedong for getting 2nd. If the #2 beats the #1 then they switch headbands. If someone without a headband beats the #2 then they take it. The #1 can only lose their headband to someone with the #2. This will be tracked for any tournament that gives WCS points.
So at the begging of the year sOs had the #1 headband and Jaedong had the #2 headband. Jaedong's first WCS matches were at ASUS ROG Winter, where he defended the #2 headband against GunGFuBanDa, elfi, and Liquid Hero. But then Life beat Jaedong to take the #2 headband, and then San beat Life to take the #2 headband. From there San won the tournament and still has the #2 headband. So now we have sOs still with the #1 headband, and San with the #2 headband with 2 defenses (StarDust and Dear). The only way for sOs to lose his #1 headband is if the player with the #2 headband beats him in a WCS Tournament. So if San keeps defending and holds on to his #2 headband, and then he beats sOs at IEM Cologne, then San will take the #1 headband and sOs will get the #2 headband.
A little complicated haha but I thought it could be fun, and I'm gonna add something to highlight upcoming headband defense matches, with #1 vs #2 being a big deal.
Starts in This match is important for MMA! This match is important for Snute! MMA, Snute in DreamHack Moscow - MMA is at ~ 30.36 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.91 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 40.78 %. ~ 48.09 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 19.11 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 67.3 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.09 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 89.52 %. ~ 51.91 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 46.71 %.
Starts in jjakji, TRUE in DreamHack Moscow - jjakji is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.03 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 39.97 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.97 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 60.03 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Thanks! It's pretty lame from Redbull/whoeverisinchargeofwcspointdistribution to not having clarified that system of tournament and point distribution already. (Well, in practice, it's only relevant for Scarlett, but still!)
Also one more general topic for discussion: why aren't there more players from around the 16th wcs place currently playing in DH:Moscow? Wouldn't it be worth the travel to have a batter shot at the insane money of Blizzcon? Or are people just being realistic?
On September 14 2014 23:36 opisska wrote: Thanks! It's pretty lame from Redbull/whoeverisinchargeofwcspointdistribution to not having clarified that system of tournament and point distribution already. (Well, in practice, it's only relevant for Scarlett, but still!)
Also one more general topic for discussion: why aren't there more players from around the 16th wcs place currently playing in DH:Moscow? Wouldn't it be worth the travel to have a batter shot at the insane money of Blizzcon? Or are people just being realistic?
Red Bull could also help sOs and DongRaeGu (he's still in GSL) if they do give points
haha idk, maybe they don't know about WCS Predictor so they don't know how much it would help? lol, maybe we'll see more at DreamHack Stockholm
sOs has to hope for points for DC Battlegrounds, either that or that the WCS champs for each region are from players already guaranteed in... he's too close to the cutoff line
I love this predictor, and I love how obsessed I've become with WCS points leading into Blizzcon. Last year I didn't really care much, but it seems different this time, for some reason.
Where does this leave Snute, now? What's the next tournament I need to focus on and get hyped about if I want him to win? :D
On September 15 2014 00:16 asongdotnet wrote: sOs has to hope for points for DC Battlegrounds, either that or that the WCS champs for each region are from players already guaranteed in... he's too close to the cutoff line
I hope he gets to go to DH and gets some points there too.
On September 15 2014 00:17 Rehio wrote: I love this predictor, and I love how obsessed I've become with WCS points leading into Blizzcon. Last year I didn't really care much, but it seems different this time, for some reason.
Where does this leave Snute, now? What's the next tournament I need to focus on and get hyped about if I want him to win? :D
DreamHack Stockholm, if he goes... If not, there is no more tournament for him.
On September 15 2014 00:17 Rehio wrote: I love this predictor, and I love how obsessed I've become with WCS points leading into Blizzcon. Last year I didn't really care much, but it seems different this time, for some reason.
Where does this leave Snute, now? What's the next tournament I need to focus on and get hyped about if I want him to win? :D
thanks
Snute is now around ~ 46.64 % GSL, WCS AM, and WCS EU actually affects him a bit, and of course DreamHack Stockholm can still secure his 100%
here are some other players' events that can affect him (this is before his loss so all these chances will be a bit lower once I do the update, but at least you can get an idea for what players can help/hurt him)
Biggest Winners herO went up by ~ 50.8 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 95.31 % Classic went up by ~ 36.54 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.9 % jjakji went up by ~ 27.32 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 99.99 % MMA went up by ~ 21.51 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 39.78 % Snute went up by ~ 12.53 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 47.21 % Heart went up by ~ 1.73 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 6.66 %
Biggest Losers soO went down by ~ 58.93 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 22.71 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 21.27 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 5.89 % Rain went down by ~ 17.18 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 16.12 % viOLet went down by ~ 8.74 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 14.81 % sOs went down by ~ 8.65 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 65.66 % Jaedong went down by ~ 7.66 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 89.99 % Solar went down by ~ 3.78 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 10.5 % Flash went down by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.01 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % HuK went down by ~ 1.88 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 2.88 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.76 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.15 % YoDa went down by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 8.98 % MaNa went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 1.05 % Happy went down by ~ 1.6 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 0.71 % HerO went down by ~ 1.59 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 2.82 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 10.97 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.15 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 2.91 % Life went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 98.93 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.21 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 3.88 % to ~ 3.05 % Golden went down by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 4.15 % Cure went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.34 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.37 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.4 %, going from ~ 6.1 % to ~ 5.7 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.73 % Dear went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 % TLO went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 1.35 %
Starts in This match is important for MMA! jjakji, MMA in DreamHack Moscow - jjakji is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.29 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 42.71 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 39.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.71 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 53.76 %. ~ 57.29 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 29.35 %.
On September 15 2014 01:56 SNSeigifried wrote: Does Snute's chances increase if mma loses this final???
yes but not by much, WCS Predictor didn't detect it as more significant than other events but it did pick up MMA winning hurting Snute, so MMA losing would help by a similar amount of ~ 5 % or a little less since jjakji is slightly favored (edit oops I did WCS EU by accident lol, fixed)
This happens ~ 42.7 % of the time MMA wins their next match in DreamHack Moscow ro2 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 47.19 % to ~ 42.28 %
On September 15 2014 02:01 xYc wrote: How long does it take you to run a prediction (with full 30 million samplesize) ?
I just reinstalled windows on my new SSD on my desktop so I can't run it on here until I get everything set up again but it takes a little under an hour on here and it gets faster as more tournaments finish (i7 950 overclocked to 3.5 ghz)
since I can't use my desktop I'm running it on my laptop (some new i7, don't remember which as I didn't buy it, it's from work) which takes about 3-4 hours for 30 million samples
MMA will probably get in... assuming he gets the extra 250 for winning the finals at DH he's also probably going to get the extra 300 points for going to the ro8 in his WCS group (he should be a heavy favorite to advance)
--------UPDATE Sunday, Sep 14 7:25pm GMT (GMT+00:00) KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow Completed! I also made Red Bull Washington only give WCS points half of the time since there's still been no announcement about it, and I added in the confirmed players for DreamHack Stockholm. Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5750
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (a week ago 2,275 points was the highest with 0% chances) ~ 0.64 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.96 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 23.52 % a week ago) ~ 49.23 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 89.1 % a week ago) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (a week ago 3,600 points was the lowest with 100% chances) The point cuttoffs are moving up! The 100% marker moving down is natural, since all possibilities are accounted for, the 0% and 100% markers should only move inwards.
Biggest winners and losers from KeSPA Cup and DreamHack Moscow (before the changes I made to Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm). Biggest Winners herO went up by ~ 49.81 %, going from ~ 44.51 % to ~ 94.32 % Classic went up by ~ 36.5 %, going from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 99.87 % MMA went up by ~ 35.61 %, going from ~ 18.27 % to ~ 53.88 % jjakji went up by ~ 27.32 %, going from ~ 72.68 % to ~ 99.99 % Snute went up by ~ 7.54 %, going from ~ 34.68 % to ~ 42.22 % Heart went up by ~ 1.45 %, going from ~ 4.93 % to ~ 6.38 %
Biggest Losers soO went down by ~ 60.43 %, going from ~ 81.64 % to ~ 21.21 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 21.52 %, going from ~ 27.16 % to ~ 5.64 % Rain went down by ~ 17.23 %, going from ~ 33.3 % to ~ 16.07 % sOs went down by ~ 10.28 %, going from ~ 74.31 % to ~ 64.03 % Jaedong went down by ~ 9.34 %, going from ~ 97.65 % to ~ 88.31 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
viOLet went down by ~ 9.31 %, going from ~ 23.55 % to ~ 14.24 % Solar went down by ~ 3.82 %, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 10.45 % Flash went down by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 3.69 % to ~ 0.01 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.52 %, going from ~ 10.65 % to ~ 8.13 % HuK went down by ~ 2.13 %, going from ~ 4.76 % to ~ 2.63 % MajOr went down by ~ 2.09 %, going from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.86 %, going from ~ 12.91 % to ~ 11.05 % Happy went down by ~ 1.72 %, going from ~ 2.31 % to ~ 0.59 % MaNa went down by ~ 1.7 %, going from ~ 2.66 % to ~ 0.96 % HerO went down by ~ 1.63 %, going from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 2.79 % Life went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 99.92 % to ~ 98.63 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 2.81 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 10.93 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.95 %, going from ~ 1.12 % to ~ 0.17 % Golden went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 4.98 % to ~ 4.05 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 3.88 % to ~ 3.07 % Cure went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0.3 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 11.93 % to ~ 11.34 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.42 %, going from ~ 6.1 % to ~ 5.68 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 19.11 % to ~ 18.75 % Dear went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.16 % to ~ 0.01 % TLO went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 1.46 % to ~ 1.34 %
Biggest winners and losers from the changes to Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm. The Red Bull change had a huge effect on sOs! (Red Bull, please make an announcement!) Snute had large gains mostly due to his confirmation of attending Dreamhack Stockholm, and I think the Red Bull change helped him too. Biggest Winners Snute went up by ~ 32.9 %, going from ~ 42.22 % to ~ 75.12 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.38 %, going from ~ 11.35 % to ~ 12.73 % Dayshi went up by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.79 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 1.27 % Golden went up by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 4.06 % to ~ 4.32 %
Biggest Losers sOs went down by ~ 22.03 %, going from ~ 64.02 % to ~ 41.99 % MMA went down by ~ 2.82 %, going from ~ 53.87 % to ~ 51.04 % Jaedong went down by ~ 2.4 %, going from ~ 88.32 % to ~ 85.92 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 2.8 % to ~ 1.26 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 14.24 % to ~ 13.04 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa went down by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 8.12 % to ~ 7.31 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 11.04 % to ~ 10.25 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 5.65 % to ~ 4.91 % herO went down by ~ 0.55 %, going from ~ 94.33 % to ~ 93.78 % Rain went down by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 16.1 % to ~ 15.64 % Heart went down by ~ 0.44 %, going from ~ 6.37 % to ~ 5.93 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 10.93 % to ~ 10.62 % HuK went down by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 2.37 % Cure went down by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 0.09 % soO went down by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 21.2 % to ~ 20.99 % HerO went down by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 2.78 % to ~ 2.58 % Happy went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 0.59 % to ~ 0.4 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 18.74 % to ~ 18.58 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 52.96 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 75.12 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.62 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 2.94 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.25 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 1.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.65 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.81 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.06 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HuK ~ 0.7 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.37 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.39 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.35 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.17 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.79 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.05 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.4 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.27 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 65.55 % to ~ 86.14 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 17.29 % to ~ 23.44 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
So the break will most likely be slightly above 3000. While the next DH is open and information on RBBG is inspecific, let us have look who can get to 3000 solely on WCS from those guys who are still alive in WCS but not already over 3000 in points (in brackets is the finish they need and how many points the would have). Thanks to the generous 2000 points for 1st place, there is a surprising number of people still maybe in the game (I would say much more than the Aligulac-based prediction shows at first look) - but it really depends on what the real cutoff will be! On the ohter hand, there are many of those for which even wining likely 1st doesn't help at all.
I made this mainly for myself as a straightforward viewing guide to the WCS Season 3. There are likely errors
edit: the moral of the story is that it is sometimes better to have less points rather than having more, but being already eliminated in the WCS. (Looking sadly northwards.)
On September 15 2014 05:30 opisska wrote: So the break will most likely be slightly above 3000. While the next DH is open and information on RBBG is inspecific, let us have look who can get to 3000 solely on WCS from those guys who are still alive in WCS but not already over 3000 in points (in brackets is the finish they need and how many points the would have). Thanks to the generous 2000 points for 1st place, there is a surprising number of people still maybe in the game (I would say much more than the Aligulac-based prediction shows at first look) - but it really depends on what the real cutoff will be! On the ohter hand, there are many of those for which even wining likely 1st doesn't help at all.
I made this mainly for myself as a straightforward viewing guide to the WCS Season 3. There are likely errors
Nice! Here's the full list of WCS point cutoffs, you can see how big a difference 50 points makes near the middle
~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.63 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.96 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.01 % of the time 2,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.01 % of the time 2,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 2.61 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.51 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.59 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 18.24 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 36.32 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.07 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.99 % of the time 2,975 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 49.22 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 57.81 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 74.32 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 76.79 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 92.68 % of the time 3,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 98.27 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 98.73 % of the time 3,150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.15 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.9 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.96 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.98 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,325 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,350 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,375 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,400 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,425 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Also there are currently 53 players with non-zero chances, partly due to the placeholder tournament. Only 40 players with over 0.01% chances, 35 over 1%, and only 24 players with over 10% chances.
Also there are currently 53 players with non-zero chances, partly due to the placeholder tournament. Only 40 players with over 0.01% chances, 35 over 1%, and only 24 players with over 10% chances.
It's quite interesting to see how far it is to 100% - is it some kind if inprecision/fault of the method or is it really so that there is some extremely contrived scenario where people get exactly the right amount of points so that 3550 is not enough? Can you see what the scenario is with one or two clicks? (if not, please don't go on a two hour rampage only to find it )
Anyway, if we stick to the middle range, the break would be between say 2900 and 3075 - that would mean that there are only 2 to 4 spots "for grabs" in most of the cases. That also really makes sense, because while a lot of points are still in the air, most of them are WCS 1st places and there can be only 3 winners
Also there are currently 53 players with non-zero chances, partly due to the placeholder tournament. Only 40 players with over 0.01% chances, 35 over 1%, and only 24 players with over 10% chances.
What happens if you remove the placeholder?
It only exists 25% of the time and it also has randomized player lists, so it doesn't make anything terribly likely. Removing it would probably bring a bunch of the 0.1% and less guys down to 0%, and some of the 99.99% players to 100%.
Here are some negative events from it to see how something not happening changes the chances, it's not by much since every event in the placeholder tournament has very low probability
~ 99.77 % of the time soO doesn't get 1st in Placeholder Tournament 1 This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 20.96 % to ~ 20.78 %
~ 99.69 % of the time sOs doesn't get 1st in Placeholder Tournament 1 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.96 % to ~ 41.78 %
~ 99.8 % of the time viOLet doesn't get 1st in Placeholder Tournament 1 This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.03 % to ~ 12.88 %
~ 99.82 % of the time TRUE doesn't get 1st in Placeholder Tournament 1 This would change TRUE's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 99.64 % of the time Flash doesn't get 1st in Placeholder Tournament 1 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 99.71 % of the time PartinG doesn't get 1st in Placeholder Tournament 1 This would change PartinG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 %
I wouldn't be opposed to making the placeholder tournament happen 10% of the time or maybe even 5% of the time instead of 25%. I don't want to entirely remove it though cause it safeguards me from a new tournament being announced, but also last minute player replacements (remember Revival last year? lol) since even if it doesn't predict a new player entering the tournament last minute it still has a very slight chance for them to earn those extra points from the placeholder instead, it just really prevents premature 0% and 100% chances for players.
On September 15 2014 05:53 opisska wrote: It's quite interesting to see how far it is to 100% - is it some kind if inprecision/fault of the method or is it really so that there is some extremely contrived scenario where people get exactly the right amount of points so that 3550 is not enough? Can you see what the scenario is with one or two clicks? (if not, please don't go on a two hour rampage only to find it )
Anyway, if we stick to the middle range, the break would be between say 2900 and 3075 - that would mean that there are only 2 to 4 spots "for grabs" in most of the cases. That also really makes sense, because while a lot of points are still in the air, most of them are WCS 1st places and there can be only 3 winners
It is from an extremely contrived scenario. Haha it certainly wouldn't be easy to get that info, but it's a good idea for a new feature, maybe late next year.
The thing to remember about that stat is that it doesn't mean there was a #17 player with 3550 points, but it means that the #16 player had 3575 points at least once in the simulations, while the #17 had maybe 3300 points (I looked around at the players' max points while NOT qualifying and I think the highest I saw was between 3300 and 3400). So maybe that's slightly backwards logic, but then again it does say "is enough" instead of "is not enough", I think it only really makes a difference for the extreme cases.
Yea your 2 to 4 spots up for grabs makes sense cause 12 players are over 90%, maybe more like 3 to 6 spots depending on how you quantify "up for grabs".
I've taken a look into the website. How about showing the expectation value of WCS points, instead of showing the median? If anything, it seems more informative for Soo's chances: his median is the same as his minimum for now.
On September 15 2014 10:50 timchen1017 wrote: I've taken a look into the website. How about showing the expectation value of WCS points, instead of showing the median? If anything, it seems more informative for Soo's chances: his median is the same as his minimum for now.
His median is the same as his minimum because he isn't favored against Stats and he has an under 50% chance to win any more WCS points, that is his literal expected value (not the mathematical term for it), if you had to pick a number for him to end up at, that's the one. (ok maybe mode is better by that logic, but mode is almost always the minimum because losing your next match in a tournament is always more likely than any other individual sequence of results for the tournament unless you're extremely favored)(the mode is also displayed on the player pages)
I did used to have the mean WCS points on the front page instead of median, but then I switched it because I thought median was better. The median is where they are most likely to end up, it's an actual number that can be achieved, the mean is usually an impossible number to achieve since WCS points are given out in increments of 25. I don't even think the mean tells you anything that the % doesn't, and I think the % tells it better. If we look at soO's mean and the WCS Point cutoffs, 2869 is between ~ 13.52 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.6 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Yet his chances are at ~ 20.96 %, so how does the mean help?
If the same year of WCS was played out hundreds of times at the same time with all the same players then the mean would probably be good cause then it would be the expected average over all the different instances of WCS, but in reality we only get 1 outcome. I think mean/expected value is better for analyzing things you're going to do over and over to amortize the risk/reward. I'm fine with changing it if many people want it changed, but this doesn't really seem like a change that makes sense to me. It's still available for viewing on the player pages though.
soO is also one of few players with decent chances who has the same median as minimum, so I don't think that's a big issue, and in fact I think it's telling of his situation, he's favored to lose in the 1 tournament he's still in, and he's unconfirmed/unlikely to be attending anything else.
The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year..
Since you are probably generating a lot of random numbers in a very short time period for each simulation, entropy depletion might be problem, especially if you are relying on /dev/random. You might want to check if you are depleting the entropy pool, which would cause biases in your results.
Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
On September 15 2014 11:45 Die4Ever wrote: His median is the same as his minimum because he isn't favored against Stats and he has an under 50% chance to win any more WCS points, that is his literal expected value (not the mathematical term for it), if you had to pick a number for him to end up at, that's the one. (ok maybe mode is better by that logic, but mode is almost always the minimum because losing your next match in a tournament is always more likely than any other individual sequence of results for the tournament unless you're extremely favored)(the mode is also displayed on the player pages)
I did used to have the mean WCS points on the front page instead of median, but then I switched it because I thought median was better. The median is where they are most likely to end up, it's an actual number that can be achieved, the mean is usually an impossible number to achieve since WCS points are given out in increments of 25. I don't even think the mean tells you anything that the % doesn't, and I think the % tells it better. If we look at soO's mean and the WCS Point cutoffs, 2869 is between ~ 13.52 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.6 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Yet his chances are at ~ 20.96 %, so how does the mean help?
If the same year of WCS was played out hundreds of times at the same time with all the same players then the mean would probably be good cause then it would be the expected average over all the different instances of WCS, but in reality we only get 1 outcome. I think mean/expected value is better for analyzing things you're going to do over and over to amortize the risk/reward. I'm fine with changing it if many people want it changed, but this doesn't really seem like a change that makes sense to me. It's still available for viewing on the player pages though.
soO is also one of few players with decent chances who has the same median as minimum, so I don't think that's a big issue, and in fact I think it's telling of his situation, he's favored to lose in the 1 tournament he's still in, and he's unconfirmed/unlikely to be attending anything else.
Ah. I didn't click into individual players; the mean is exactly what I am talking about.
I think there are two problems with mode and median here. The first is that both of them underestimate the importance of the off-chance points: for a single tournament at least. Say in a single elimination bracket with 125 points for Ro8 finish and 1000 points for the championship, the mean and mode for a slightly above average player will probably be 250 points and 125 points. These numbers completely overlook the comparably large number of points they will gain, in the off chance that they proceed further in the tournament. But if it is a highly competitive tournament, somebody slightly above/below average is bound to proceed. In this case I think the mean, 375 points, is a better representation about how many points we can expect an average player to earn in this tournament.
The second problem is about the granularity of the points. Like you said, mode and median give attainable number of points. But that can both be a good and a bad thing at the same time. The bad part is that it loses information. In Soo's example, if I look from the median only, I cannot tell whether he is eliminated from GSL or not. It's only when I combine that with his chance to Blizzcon, do I realize that means he is unfavored against his Ro8 opponent. But even that, how unfavored? Can't tell from the median either, as it may range from 49-51 to 1-99, and the median is still the same. The mean, even though you cannot read out the chance to Blizzcon from it, gives an idea about his chances for the remaining tournament.
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year..
it's kind of sad when the blizzcon winner will almost certainly have no claim whatsoever to the "best player in the world" title.
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year..
it's kind of sad when the blizzcon winner will almost certainly have no claim whatsoever to the "best player in the world" title.
As opposed to last year, when one of the first things TL posted after Blizzcon was "what we learned is that there is no single best player in the world".
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year..
I agree in the case of soO, because he just shows how absurdly both top-heavy and not-KR-favoured the point distribution is. Being in two GSL finals is just soO huge (sorry bout that).
On the other hand, how can you even argue for sOs? He did achieve absolutely nothing in the GSL, the only reason he is even a contender for Blizzcon is his victory at one single non-WCS event and that is only because an absurd amount of money has been thrown into said event and thus it got the "Tier 1" label. If anything, we should be complaining that sOs is too high, not too low!
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year..
it's kind of sad when the blizzcon winner will almost certainly have no claim whatsoever to the "best player in the world" title.
As opposed to last year, when one of the first things TL posted after Blizzcon was "what we learned is that there is no single best player in the world".
last year was a much more stacked bracket. if you took a poll of every serious starcraft fan and asked them to name the best ten players in the world, how many of those players would you see in the blizzcon field? Zest is the only slam dunk, with Taeja, hero, and maybe Polt deserving consideration.. last year we had Dear, Innovation, JD, sOs, Soulkey, Maru, and Taeja who would have appeared on a large percentage of those lists. almost everyone who had a significant impact on the scene was there. this year we can't even get soO in, and he's been in every GSL finals. I think most people would have Rain in the top three overall players in the world, and he very likely won't be there. most people would say maru is the best terran in the world (and everyone would have him top 3) and he won't be there. JD is losing to no-names on a regular basis and he'll be at blizzcon. jjakji isn't a serious contender in any tournament and he'll be there. our number 1 seed was just eliminated at Dreamhack by a guy I thought had retired.
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year..
Just attend ONE foreigner tournament and he has a very good chance to qualifiy. 250points (5-8th place) will help alot for him because we have only stockholm now. Why worse next year? All I heard that only WCS KR gets more points.
On September 15 2014 12:30 JJH777 wrote: The fact that Soo and sOs have pretty low chances to make this tournament just shows how terrible the WCS system currently is. And it's going to get even worse next year..
it's kind of sad when the blizzcon winner will almost certainly have no claim whatsoever to the "best player in the world" title.
As opposed to last year, when one of the first things TL posted after Blizzcon was "what we learned is that there is no single best player in the world".
last year was a much more stacked bracket. if you took a poll of every serious starcraft fan and asked them to name the best ten players in the world, how many of those players would you see in the blizzcon field? Zest is the only slam dunk, with Taeja, hero, and maybe Polt deserving consideration.. last year we had Dear, Innovation, JD, sOs, Soulkey, Maru, and Taeja who would have appeared on a large percentage of those lists. almost everyone who had a significant impact on the scene was there. this year we can't even get soO in, and he's been in every GSL finals. I think most people would have Rain in the top three overall players in the world, and he very likely won't be there. most people would say maru is the best terran in the world (and everyone would have him top 3) and he won't be there. JD is losing to no-names on a regular basis and he'll be at blizzcon. jjakji isn't a serious contender in any tournament and he'll be there. our number 1 seed was just eliminated at Dreamhack by a guy I thought had retired.
I really don't understand why soo many people underestimate foreign koreans.
Zest, herO, Taeja, Life, Polt, MC, Bomber and Classic. Those are all heavy hitters.
You automatically think that koreans that play in GSL are the strongest and thats what you call an assumption. Its an old outdated way of thinking.
Yeah right, HyuN is so bad because he was taken out in a ZvZ by B4 while Rain is one of the best in the world while going 3-1 against the (oh so bad player) Bomber.
According to your reasoning Kespa cup would have been a one sided affair with NA and EU WCS invités getting their ass kicked. What happend? San showing ByuL he can't hold against him even if he goes "the same build every game" while Bomber teaches the fanboys that Rain actually isn't the favorite to win the whole tournament. In between those things happened Pigbaby bombed out hard (Against Zest the eventual champion) and Stardust had some of the best games of the tournament that was nailbitingly close against the second favorite to take the championship, Flash.
Your assumptions have already been disproven in the Kespa cup, which I am sure you would agree was one of the most stacked tournaments this year.
Regarding the rest of you arguements, WCS is supposed to represent the year not the players form at this very moment. Jjakji is peaking right now it seems and has always done decently even though as you say he is not a favorite ever. Maru best T, that is just a joke atm I wouldn't even rate him top 3, he is slumping and its obvious. You just want to see your favorite players there and thats the end of that. Flash, Rain and soO should be att Blizzcon I think too, Flash peaked too late, Rain hasn't shown the actual results and soO has bombed out of everything except GSL. Sadly they haven't had the consistency in tournaments unlike players like lets say Life.
just because I don't think Bomber is one of the ten best players in the world doesn't mean I think he's the same as B4, who to my knowledge was making his first tournament appearance of 2014. I don't think "kespa koreans" are categorically better than "foreign koreans"--I had San/Byul as a toss up, and I happen to like San quite a bit--but the top tier proleague/GSL players are indeed a cut above. yes, Rain losing to Bomber was a rather large upset as far as I'm concerned, and I can say that without pretending that Bomber is no good. hyun is not bad, but losing to B4 is without a doubt a very poor result, and literally no one thinks Hyun is even in the conversation for best player in the world. he just copied MCs shotgun-the-foreign-scene approach. and more power to him, especially after getting left high and dry by quantic. it's not his fault that the point system is flawed.
but it is flawed. if you have a team/sponsor/personal bank account willing to fly you around the world, you have a great chance at making blizzcon. if you're soO, you're not making it, even if you are by consensus the best zerg in the world and have had an unprecedented streak in the hardest tournament in the world. proleague participation screwed over a large chunk of the best players in the world. being on teams with korean focused sponsors screwed people over. and the players know this. we're seeing top tier players leaving kespa every day now, just in the hope they'll find a spot on the foreign gravy train. I'm sure Blizzard is working on some changes, but for now we have a blizzcon field that is not very representative of the scene.
On September 15 2014 20:12 negativedge wrote: just because I don't think Bomber is one of the ten best players in the world doesn't mean I think he's the same as B4, who to my knowledge was making his first tournament appearance of 2014. I don't think "kespa koreans" are categorically better than "foreign koreans"--I had San/Byul as a toss up, and I happen to like San quite a bit--but the top tier proleague/GSL players are indeed a cut above. yes, Rain losing to Bomber was a rather large upset as far as I'm concerned, and I can say that without pretending that Bomber is no good. hyun is not bad, but losing to B4 is without a doubt a very poor result, and literally no one thinks Hyun is even in the conversation for best player in the world. he just copied MCs shotgun-the-foreign-scene approach. and more power to him, especially after getting left high and dry by quantic. it's not his fault that the point system is flawed.
but it is flawed. if you have a team/sponsor/personal bank account willing to fly you around the world, you have a great chance at making blizzcon. if you're soO, you're not making it, even if you are by consensus the best zerg in the world and have had an unprecedented streak in the hardest tournament in the world. proleague participation screwed over a large chunk of the best players in the world. being on teams with korean focused sponsors screwed people over. and the players know this. we're seeing top tier players leaving kespa every day now, just in the hope they'll find a spot on the foreign gravy train. I'm sure Blizzard is working on some changes, but for now we have a blizzcon field that is not very representative of the scene.
I'm sorry for some of my comments, I have to say I agree with you mostly, you make very good points.
I dont agree with you about WCS being flawed though, it depends what you expect from WCS. It is flawed if you only look at it thinking its a system that is supposed to make the "the best players in the world" go to blizzcon.
I think its a system that is supposed to make the players that produces the best results in tournaments go to blizzcon. No matter what reason, if you are not producing results in tournaments then you don't earn points. It can be because you can't fly around to different events due to economical reasons. It could be because you are horrible at offline events, it could be because you have one particular matchup that is weak and so on. In the end I think having a great team/economy to be able to fly around is an advantage, not an unfair advantage. WCS is not created to cater to the "best players in the world", if it was only GSL players would be eligible. The thought is taking the best from korea, the best from europe and the best from north america. From that perspective I don't think the World Championship Series is flawed.
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Well the G3 infinity tournament that bunny won had only 12 players in it and it some how managed to give out WCS point despite not having 16 players in it.
with the way things are currently going, I'm going to assume neither soO or sOs will be at blizzcon, This leaves Zest, Life, herO, Classic and whoever will win WCS KR as the presentatives of KR at blizzcon. I think it's a pretty safe bet that the winner of blizzCon will could be any of the KR reps minus Classic plus TaeJa. Similar all the season finals and blizzcon from last year, I expect the KR region player to beat the EU/AM player the majority of the time.
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
On September 15 2014 14:42 Loccstana wrote: Since you are probably generating a lot of random numbers in a very short time period for each simulation, entropy depletion might be problem, especially if you are relying on /dev/random. You might want to check if you are depleting the entropy pool, which would cause biases in your results.
I'm not using /Dev/random and I don't think I'm having that issue since I've seen a player with very low chances have 0 times qualified out of 15 million samples, and then score 1 qualification in a later block and finish at 1 time out of 30 million. And I've also seen other really low numbers of qualifications like double digits out of 30 million and they're spread out well across the distribution, as in they don't appear in chunks they show up gradually.
On September 15 2014 11:45 Die4Ever wrote: His median is the same as his minimum because he isn't favored against Stats and he has an under 50% chance to win any more WCS points, that is his literal expected value (not the mathematical term for it), if you had to pick a number for him to end up at, that's the one. (ok maybe mode is better by that logic, but mode is almost always the minimum because losing your next match in a tournament is always more likely than any other individual sequence of results for the tournament unless you're extremely favored)(the mode is also displayed on the player pages)
I did used to have the mean WCS points on the front page instead of median, but then I switched it because I thought median was better. The median is where they are most likely to end up, it's an actual number that can be achieved, the mean is usually an impossible number to achieve since WCS points are given out in increments of 25. I don't even think the mean tells you anything that the % doesn't, and I think the % tells it better. If we look at soO's mean and the WCS Point cutoffs, 2869 is between ~ 13.52 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.6 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Yet his chances are at ~ 20.96 %, so how does the mean help?
If the same year of WCS was played out hundreds of times at the same time with all the same players then the mean would probably be good cause then it would be the expected average over all the different instances of WCS, but in reality we only get 1 outcome. I think mean/expected value is better for analyzing things you're going to do over and over to amortize the risk/reward. I'm fine with changing it if many people want it changed, but this doesn't really seem like a change that makes sense to me. It's still available for viewing on the player pages though.
soO is also one of few players with decent chances who has the same median as minimum, so I don't think that's a big issue, and in fact I think it's telling of his situation, he's favored to lose in the 1 tournament he's still in, and he's unconfirmed/unlikely to be attending anything else.
Ah. I didn't click into individual players; the mean is exactly what I am talking about.
I think there are two problems with mode and median here. The first is that both of them underestimate the importance of the off-chance points: for a single tournament at least. Say in a single elimination bracket with 125 points for Ro8 finish and 1000 points for the championship, the mean and mode for a slightly above average player will probably be 250 points and 125 points. These numbers completely overlook the comparably large number of points they will gain, in the off chance that they proceed further in the tournament. But if it is a highly competitive tournament, somebody slightly above/below average is bound to proceed. In this case I think the mean, 375 points, is a better representation about how many points we can expect an average player to earn in this tournament.
The second problem is about the granularity of the points. Like you said, mode and median give attainable number of points. But that can both be a good and a bad thing at the same time. The bad part is that it loses information. In Soo's example, if I look from the median only, I cannot tell whether he is eliminated from GSL or not. It's only when I combine that with his chance to Blizzcon, do I realize that means he is unfavored against his Ro8 opponent. But even that, how unfavored? Can't tell from the median either, as it may range from 49-51 to 1-99, and the median is still the same. The mean, even though you cannot read out the chance to Blizzcon from it, gives an idea about his chances for the remaining tournament.
Good point, I do like both, I think I still like median a little more, but the best part about mean might be that it shows the small differences between players because of the increased granularity. I'll leave it to everyone else though, let me know which one you like more.
technically only sOs and parting wouldn't be guaranteed points (if points are made available for RBBG) because they were invited whereas everyone else qualified for their spots
On September 16 2014 02:50 asongdotnet wrote: technically only sOs and parting wouldn't be guaranteed points (if points are made available for RBBG) because they were invited whereas everyone else qualified for their spots
I don't think so, "qualifying" by winning a tournament counts as an invite, same thing happened with IEM World Championship. Also what differentiates Parting and sOs from Scarlett, Trap, Bomber, DRG, Cure, and Polt? They all had to win a tournament or get 2nd to be invited.
"* Players must advance one round in order to claim WCS points for that placement. Being seeded through qualifiers counts as advancing one round. IEM Shanghai, IEM New York, IEM Singapore, IEM Sao Paulo and IEM Cologne does NOT count as qualifiers as shown on the wcs portal." http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/IEM_Season_VIII_-_World_Championship
"All eight players are invited:
PartinG and sOs as the winner and runner up of Red Bull Battle Grounds New York City. Scarlett as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: North America. Trap as the winner of MLG Anaheim. Bomber as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: Atlanta. DongRaeGu as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: Global. Cure as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: Online. Polt as the winner of Red Bull Battle Grounds: Detroit." http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Red_Bull_Battle_Grounds:_Washington
then as opposed to the 50% chance that there will be points wouldn't you say it's more likely that we won't see points for RBBG? With only 4 players able to obtain points and the fact that RBBG is at least a T2 WCS event how are they possibly going to distribute 4000 points amongst only 4 competitors in a fair manner?
I like RB tournaments but this system shouldnt give any points, is pretty much the same as WCS Global Season last year. If you are in top5 in your actual wcs (you get already more points than 6th and lower) AND you get another wcs points automatically because you qualified for WCS Global Season. This feels like the difference between 5th and 6th is bigger than 1st and 2nd or anything else. the same here with RB, winner of all RB tournaments are there (deserved) to fight money (deserved) and wcs points (undeserved).
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
On September 16 2014 04:27 asongdotnet wrote: then as opposed to the 50% chance that there will be points wouldn't you say it's more likely that we won't see points for RBBG? With only 4 players able to obtain points and the fact that RBBG is at least a T2 WCS event how are they possibly going to distribute 4000 points amongst only 4 competitors in a fair manner?
I picked 50/50 because I don't feel like I have enough information to give a fair bias, Blizzard says maybe, only fair chances is 50/50.
On September 16 2014 04:45 Plexa wrote: Given that Red Bull is this weekend, it seems highly likely that the event will not give points.
It's getting really close but honestly RB has always been bad about announcing things in a timely manner, I think it was Detroit or Atlanta where they didn't even announce the groups until they were finished the next day...
Gfinity was considered tier 2 even though it gave out a bit fewer points but it still gave 750 for 1st, 500 for 2nd, 375 for 3rd/4th like I'm doing for RB (they also gave points to lower places though). Idk if it counts as tier 2 but that's what I set it to for now.
How about a poll? This poll is asking what I should do, not what Blizzard/RB should do. I'm giving a 5% option instead of a 0% option because just in case they suddenly announce that they're giving points on the day of the tournament I want to have some stats ready.
Poll: What chances should I use for RB giving WCS Points?
(Vote): 50% - half and half chances, maybe it will give WCS Points (Vote): 25% - lower chances, it probably won't give WCS Points (Vote): 5% - it almost definitely will not be giving WCS Points
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
No WCS point for the event.
was there an announcement? I didn't see anything
WCS points for the event ? No I don't think so.
MC said that you can't have WCS points for a tournament with only 8 players too. And MrBitter dodged the question on Skype.
On September 15 2014 16:25 Elpea wrote: Am I missing something? Would Red Bull Washington be allowed to give any WCS points? The event has only 8 players and I believe the rules require at least 16 players (8 of them on site). Also the rules require a player to win at least the 1st round of a tournament to receive points. As there is only 8 players at the event point distribution according to the rules would be impossible. 4 players (i expect at least 50% elimination in 1st round) sharing 7000, 4000 or 1500 points with 1500, 750 or 300 going to the winner, leaves huge amounts to the 2nd and 4th players. Even if 6 players get to share the points, as the other battlegrounds could count as qualifying and therefore the 1st round (like KeSPA Cup), this would not be a good distribution... What am i missing?
Red Bull has a 50% chance to give points because we don't know yet. Blizzard has it listed with TBD WCS points still on their page http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about
About the rules, well Gfinity didn't really follow the rules either, they gave out the same points as a Dreamhack for the top 12 (with invites receiving none if they lose in the first round), I made it similar for this where only the top 4 receives points (since they're all invites) with the winner getting the normal 750.
MC said that you can't have WCS points for a tournament with only 8 players too. And MrBitter dodged the question on Skype.
I wish I had a concrete "no" maybe from one of the participating players, but I'll take it. I'm gonna do an update now with RB Washington completely removed. Thanks for the info.
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.66 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.98 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 55.23 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 57.65 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 49.23 % in the previous update) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest winners and losers from Removal of Red Bull Washington. Biggest Winners Snute went up by ~ 5.51 %, going from ~ 75.15 % to ~ 80.66 % Jaedong went up by ~ 4.33 %, going from ~ 85.91 % to ~ 90.24 % MMA went up by ~ 4.11 %, going from ~ 51.06 % to ~ 55.17 % herO went up by ~ 2.95 %, going from ~ 93.79 % to ~ 96.73 % soO went up by ~ 1.81 %, going from ~ 20.96 % to ~ 22.77 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa went up by ~ 1.28 %, going from ~ 7.26 % to ~ 8.54 % Life went up by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 98.64 % to ~ 99.46 % Heart went up by ~ 0.75 %, going from ~ 5.93 % to ~ 6.67 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 13.04 % to ~ 13.6 % HuK went up by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 2.38 % to ~ 2.84 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 4.91 % to ~ 5.27 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 1.28 % to ~ 1.55 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 12.73 % to ~ 12.84 % INnoVation went up by ~ 0.1 %, going from ~ 18.61 % to ~ 18.71 %
Biggest Losers sOs went down by ~ 20.81 %, going from ~ 41.99 % to ~ 21.19 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 1.27 % to ~ 0.08 % Rain went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 15.65 % to ~ 14.73 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 10.25 % to ~ 9.88 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 10.46 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 56.46 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 80.66 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 2.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.46 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 2.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 9.88 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 1.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.6 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.74 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.84 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Welmu ~ 0.62 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.99 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.32 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.15 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.85 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.41 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.55 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 86.14 % to ~ 89.78 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 23.45 % to ~ 25.35 %
Most Likely First Round WCS Finals Matches ~ 37.25 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.76 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.53 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.59 % chance to see HyuN vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.09 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.03 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.69 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.64 % chance to see TaeJa vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.59 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.43 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 16.69 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.18 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.64 % chance to see Life vs TaeJa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.13 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.48 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.06 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.34 % chance to see StarDust vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.99 % chance to see Snute vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.81 % chance to see TaeJa vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.7 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.9 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.75 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.74 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.63 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.54 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.17 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.05 % chance to see Jaedong vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.75 % chance to see Polt vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.38 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.29 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.95 % chance to see San vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.68 % chance to see MC vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.03 % chance to see HyuN vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.98 % chance to see Snute vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.9 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.48 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.46 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.44 % chance to see Life vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.34 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.23 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.07 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.94 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.21 % chance to see HyuN vs sOs in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.71 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.32 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.14 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.07 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.05 % chance to see StarDust vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see soO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.81 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.8 % chance to see viOLet vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.6 % chance to see sOs vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.56 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.14 % chance to see Rain vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.92 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.9 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.73 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.68 % chance to see Rain vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.61 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.57 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.54 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.51 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.23 % chance to see INnoVation vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.16 % chance to see TaeJa vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.09 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
On September 16 2014 07:27 asongdotnet wrote: without RBBG giving points i think sOs is done... unless he flies to stockholm and basically finishes top 2
~ 42.51 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 7.86 %
~ 57.49 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 31.02 %
~ 58.06 % of the time MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 11.69 %
~ 41.94 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 34.31 %
~ 0.39 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.61 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 85.85 %
~ 0.91 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 58.36 %
On September 16 2014 07:27 asongdotnet wrote: without RBBG giving points i think sOs is done... unless he flies to stockholm and basically finishes top 2
~ 42.51 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 7.86 %
~ 57.49 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 31.02 %
~ 58.06 % of the time MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 11.69 %
~ 41.94 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 34.31 %
~ 0.39 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.61 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 85.85 %
~ 0.91 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 58.36 %
But sOs and soO both deserve it. So please someone send sOs to dreamhack. Please. I don't know how good his english is but I just tweeted this site at him, hopefully he sees it.
On September 16 2014 07:27 asongdotnet wrote: without RBBG giving points i think sOs is done... unless he flies to stockholm and basically finishes top 2
~ 42.51 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 7.86 %
~ 57.49 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 31.02 %
~ 58.06 % of the time MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 11.69 %
~ 41.94 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 34.31 %
~ 0.39 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.61 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 85.85 %
~ 0.91 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.18 % to ~ 58.36 %
But sOs and soO both deserve it. So please someone send sOs to dreamhack. Please. I don't know how good his english is but I just tweeted this site at him, hopefully he sees it.
On September 16 2014 08:29 Popkiller wrote: 80% seems kinda high for Snute, considering he's almost definitely gonna get knocked out.
Not sure how, but watch.
here's some events that bring Snute's chances way down lol
~ 0.33 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 17.74 %
~ 2.21 % of the time Snute gets 64th in DreamHack Stockholm and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 24.01 %
~ 2.48 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 24.04 %
~ 0.41 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier and Zest wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 32.01 %
~ 0.95 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and viOLet gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier and Solar loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 34.88 %
~ 1.31 % of the time Snute gets 64th in DreamHack Stockholm and MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier and Rain wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 35.92 %
People are always arguing about what race is most OP and what race is most UP, what region is strongest, what team is the best, which foreigner is going to be knocked out in the first round of the WCS Finals. What you need to tell them how wrong they are is some actual data, because facts always work against trolls. Let's look at the stats to prove you're right! And you are right, because you're smart enough to be reading this. Maybe.
We have several different breakdowns of Blizzcon chances to look at, this is the sum of all the percent chances for the players (divided by 16 since percents look better when they're out of 100).
This graph shows Races, broken down into the regions. I know you never bother to read text so I put some images in here. You're probably not even reading this.
Breakdown by Race Protoss: has ~ 40.5 % of the chances Terran: has ~ 32.1 % of the chances Zerg: has ~ 27.4 % of the chances
Protoss is slipping a bit, they used to be at 50% for a while so maybe they need a buff now to return to their former glory. Just ask Rain, Terran is too strong. Zerg looks ok, but they can always use a nerf.
Breakdown by WCS Region GSL: ~ 30.26 % WCS AM: ~ 33.19 % WCS EU: ~ 36.55 %
Wow GSL really is the worst region, although I'm surprised WCS EU is higher than WCS AM let's just blame the WCS system for that one.
Breakdown by WCS Region and Race GSL ----Protoss: ~ 20.79 % ----Terran: ~ 1.17 % ----Zerg: ~ 8.3 %
From this we can see that Protoss is doing very poorly in WCS AM, because only the AM players are strong enough to truly abuse balance issues. Protoss definitely needs a buff. Before we thought that WCS EU was stronger than WCS AM, obviously that was wrong. If we ignore the stats for Protoss since it's unfair how weak they are, you can clearly see the truth that WCS AM is by far the strongest region. I mean come on, we have the #1 best player in the world, HyuN, and he hasn't even won every season! And if you exclude Protoss as needed, you can see WCS AM has the top 4 players in the world! HyuN, TaeJa, Polt, and Bomber, you can't argue with that list. No really, don't even try.
Now let's look at the breakdown by teams and what players hold most of the chances for the teams.
This graph shows the teams broken down into Foreign, KeSPA, and eSF.
Foreign Teams ----ROCCAT ~ 6.25 % with HyuN ----CM Storm ~ 6.25 % with Polt ----mYinsanity ~ 12.5 % with StarDust and jjakji ----Yoe ~ 6.25 % with San ----EG ~ 5.82 % with Jaedong ----Liquid ~ 12.29 % with Taeja, Snute, Bunny ----teamless ~ 14.53 % with MC and Bomber ----Acer ~ 4.07 % with MMA and Scarlett ----other foreign teams 2.64%
KEEESSSSPPPPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ----CJ Entus ~ 6.05 % with herO ----KT ~ 6.25 % with Zest ----SKT T1 ~ 8.59 % with Classic, soO, Rain ----other KeSPA teams ~ 2.31 % (Jinair with sOs and Pigbaby, and Galaxy with Solar)
eSF ----Startale ~ 6.22 % with Life
With this we can see that the best team is teamless with ~ 14.53 %, they must have a ridiculous training house and great coaches, WCS Predictor shows them having 2,153 players! With this analysis we should see many other players rushing to try to join them. 2nd best team looks like it goes to mYinsanity, but if you say that then you're dumb. ROCCAT is way better, not only do they have the best player in the world, HyuN, but their players actually have an average Blizzcon chances of 100%! And that's just the average! For comparison, mYinsanity's average Blizzcon chances is only ~ 11.11 %. ROCCAT is literally 10 times better.
Now you might look at this and think eSF is so weak compared to KeSPa, but that's only because it's true. Although it should be noted that most of the best players in the world were once eSF like HyuN, MC, TaeJa, Polt, San, Bomber, jjakji, Life, and MMA. That's 9 players in the top 16, while KeSPA only has 4!
Ok this analysis needs some more salt. What's something really sad in StarCraft? How about team kills? How about team kills in the first round of Blizzcon? Wait the first round of the WCS Finals won't be at Blizzcon. How about team kills to fight for playing in the Blizzcon main tournament? Yea that sounds good.
~ 22.04 % chance to see jjakji vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. The 6th most likely first round match is actually a team kill, with over a 1 in 5 chance! It doesn't get much better than that.
It wouldn't be an SC2 tournament without some Liquid team kills. Unfortunately it looks like there are only realistic chances for 2 of them, and out of those we can only get 1. ~ 9.89 % chance to see TaeJa vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.82 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. The much loved Team TaeJa might get to take out one of his foreigner team mates who will also probably be the only foreigner to qualify, how's that for some salt?
And lastly, I have an important announcement to make. I'm getting pretty tired of the Monte Carlo method doing it 2 years in a row, and I think I've found a much better solution. WCS Predictor 2015 will be using the much more robust Monte Cristo method. CatZ told me you guys won't be able to tell the difference though, he's probably right you guys are casuals. + Show Spoiler +
Yes this is written as a joke for my 8k post, The_Templar and NovemberstOrm made me do it (here's the proof http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=22953721 ), but all the numbers are correct (ok except the "literally 10 times better", it's actually close to only 9 times as much)
Scarlett GUARANTEED 250 POINTS. That's really big, as that changes her points from 3200 to 3450 if she wins WCS AM, making it look much more promising for her (provided that she manages to overcome this small and insignificant obstacle of winning WCS AM, of course ). (On the other hand, even if she wins RBBGW and gets second or worse in WCS AM, she is too short on points).
On September 17 2014 00:32 Dingodile wrote: I still dont understand why Scarlett, Cure and DRG get some points automatically. What happened?
It's because the tournaments they won to qualify did not give WCS points. If you get WCS points and a seed to get more WCS points then it's double dipping, it would basically be a cheap trick to have your tournament give more WCS points than Blizzard allows, so they have these rules in place. It would be pretty dumb if you won a tournament to get 750 WCS points, and then get seeded to automatically get at least 250 more lol.
I understand the logic they're using, but by this ruling, Scarlett and DRG officially have won the most elaborate qualifiers in the history of Starcraft.
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.57 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.85 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 41.17 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 57.65 % in the previous update) ~ 49.44 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,500 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in the previous update)
Biggest winners and losers from readdition and confirmation of Red Bull Washington. Biggest Winners sOs went up by ~ 41.66 %, going from ~ 21.17 % to ~ 62.84 % DongRaeGu went up by ~ 2.56 %, going from ~ 0.08 % to ~ 2.64 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 9.9 % to ~ 10.62 % Cure went up by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.2 % Solar went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 10.45 % to ~ 10.62 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 11.16 %, going from ~ 80.66 % to ~ 69.5 % Jaedong went down by ~ 8.43 %, going from ~ 90.22 % to ~ 81.79 % herO went down by ~ 5.82 %, going from ~ 96.74 % to ~ 90.92 % MMA went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 55.18 % to ~ 50.42 % soO went down by ~ 4.12 %, going from ~ 22.78 % to ~ 18.66 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
YoDa went down by ~ 2.63 %, going from ~ 8.53 % to ~ 5.89 % Life went down by ~ 1.62 %, going from ~ 99.46 % to ~ 97.84 % Heart went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 6.66 % to ~ 5.34 % viOLet went down by ~ 1.16 %, going from ~ 13.59 % to ~ 12.43 % HuK went down by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 2.85 % to ~ 1.91 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.88 %, going from ~ 18.72 % to ~ 17.85 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 5.28 % to ~ 4.55 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.59 %, going from ~ 1.55 % to ~ 0.96 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 12.82 % to ~ 12.47 % Rain went down by ~ 0.24 %, going from ~ 14.73 % to ~ 14.49 % Golden went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 4.34 % to ~ 4.12 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.85 % to ~ 0.71 % Classic went down by ~ 0.12 %, going from ~ 99.98 % to ~ 99.86 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 49.82 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 69.5 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.57 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.47 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.62 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 1.93 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.59 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.99 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
HuK ~ 0.7 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.45 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.32 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.2 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.71 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.05 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.35 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.96 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 89.78 % to ~ 82.28 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 25.35 % to ~ 31.03 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
On September 17 2014 03:13 asongdotnet wrote: lots of points and monies available wow!
the monies were already there, but the points, THE POINTS
Scarlett, sOs, DRG, and Cure really could use the extra points.
Realistically, unless Scarlett or DRG wins thier respective WCS region, the points from this Red Bull won't make a difference. In the case of cure, even if he wins both WCS KR and this tournament, he still won't make a difference since he'll only end up at 2800. If he wins both he'd need to also attend the last dreamhack and make a semi final to finish with 3175 points. Basically he'll need to do what Dear did last year.
Most likely sOs is the only one with something on the line from this tournament for going to blizzcon, but who knows... I think we've seen a ton of surprises already.
Yeah, sadly most of the big changes in the table are just wild speculations. The Aligulac predictions really paint the picture of what is believable. But we can believe!
The strangest thing anyway is the feeling that Scarlett is more likely to win WCS than DRG is.
For player's events I would like to see something more like this:
foreach tourny_player_is_in: Out in RO32 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y Out in RO16 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y ... Wins and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y
I think this is more clear than things like "player gets 1st or 2nd", where many times that ends up being a complicated average of his relative odds of 1st vs 2nd combined with the payoffs in terms of Blizzcon chances for each. Instead with this I see separate line items for 1st and 2nd. If 2nd is good enough and gets him to 100% already I can see that easily enough.
ETA: If someone must get 1st and lower placements don't help, this will be a bit verbose but I think the simplicity makes up for it.
Desperate player: Out in RO32..... chances 0% Out in RO16..... chances 0% Out in RO8..... chances 0% Out in RO4..... chances 0% Out in RO2..... chances 0% Wins......... chances 75%
On September 17 2014 06:53 KillerDucky wrote: For player's events I would like to see something more like this:
foreach tourny_player_is_in: Out in RO32 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y Out in RO16 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y ... Wins and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y
I think this is more clear than things like "player gets 1st or 2nd", where many times that ends up being a complicated average of his relative odds of 1st vs 2nd combined with the payoffs in terms of Blizzcon chances for each. Instead with this I see separate line items for 1st and 2nd. If 2nd is good enough and gets him to 100% already I can see that easily enough.
ETA: If someone must get 1st and lower placements don't help, this will be a bit verbose but I think the simplicity makes up for it.
Desperate player: Out in RO32..... chances 0% Out in RO16..... chances 0% Out in RO8..... chances 0% Out in RO4..... chances 0% Out in RO2..... chances 0% Wins......... chances 75%
This sounds like the same thing as the "simple" filter, try typing it into the events search filter. I might make this the default or just weight them more heavily.
On September 17 2014 06:53 KillerDucky wrote: For player's events I would like to see something more like this:
foreach tourny_player_is_in: Out in RO32 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y Out in RO16 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y ... Wins and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y
I think this is more clear than things like "player gets 1st or 2nd", where many times that ends up being a complicated average of his relative odds of 1st vs 2nd combined with the payoffs in terms of Blizzcon chances for each. Instead with this I see separate line items for 1st and 2nd. If 2nd is good enough and gets him to 100% already I can see that easily enough.
ETA: If someone must get 1st and lower placements don't help, this will be a bit verbose but I think the simplicity makes up for it.
Desperate player: Out in RO32..... chances 0% Out in RO16..... chances 0% Out in RO8..... chances 0% Out in RO4..... chances 0% Out in RO2..... chances 0% Wins......... chances 75%
This sounds like the same thing as the "simple" filter, try typing it into the events search filter. I might make this the default or just weight them more heavily.
Ah yes nice. But I would like it sorted by tournament first and then by placement/points next.
On September 17 2014 06:53 KillerDucky wrote: For player's events I would like to see something more like this:
foreach tourny_player_is_in: Out in RO32 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y Out in RO16 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y ... Wins and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y
I think this is more clear than things like "player gets 1st or 2nd", where many times that ends up being a complicated average of his relative odds of 1st vs 2nd combined with the payoffs in terms of Blizzcon chances for each. Instead with this I see separate line items for 1st and 2nd. If 2nd is good enough and gets him to 100% already I can see that easily enough.
ETA: If someone must get 1st and lower placements don't help, this will be a bit verbose but I think the simplicity makes up for it.
Desperate player: Out in RO32..... chances 0% Out in RO16..... chances 0% Out in RO8..... chances 0% Out in RO4..... chances 0% Out in RO2..... chances 0% Wins......... chances 75%
This sounds like the same thing as the "simple" filter, try typing it into the events search filter. I might make this the default or just weight them more heavily.
Ah yes nice. But I would like it sorted by tournament first and then by placement/points next.
the default sort is by the score of the event (how significant it thinks the event is) I think sorting by tournament then placing might be good, right now you can filter by the tournament name though
On September 17 2014 06:53 KillerDucky wrote: For player's events I would like to see something more like this:
foreach tourny_player_is_in: Out in RO32 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y Out in RO16 and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y ... Wins and gets X wcs points. Blizzcon chances = Y
I think this is more clear than things like "player gets 1st or 2nd", where many times that ends up being a complicated average of his relative odds of 1st vs 2nd combined with the payoffs in terms of Blizzcon chances for each. Instead with this I see separate line items for 1st and 2nd. If 2nd is good enough and gets him to 100% already I can see that easily enough.
ETA: If someone must get 1st and lower placements don't help, this will be a bit verbose but I think the simplicity makes up for it.
Desperate player: Out in RO32..... chances 0% Out in RO16..... chances 0% Out in RO8..... chances 0% Out in RO4..... chances 0% Out in RO2..... chances 0% Wins......... chances 75%
This sounds like the same thing as the "simple" filter, try typing it into the events search filter. I might make this the default or just weight them more heavily.
I weighted the "simple" events much more heavily, should be a little less intimidating now on the first few pages of events
On September 17 2014 12:59 tree.hugger wrote: Where is HerO?
He's at 6-7% now. Goes up to 100% if he wins and down to 0.15% if he doesn't win it all.
I'm on an old mobile so I can't check right now, but is that a percentage for if he finishes 2nd, or just if he doesn't finish 1st?
~ 10.62 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 2.12 %
~ 5.91 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.02 % of the time HerO gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm and HerO gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 99.94 %
~ 0.01 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm and HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.28 % to ~ 99.9 %
I think Jaedong is in trouble if he doesn't make it out of his group, especially if he falls out in last place. Which is very possible considering his group. MMA is very likely to make it out of his group and would jump him. sOs just needs to pick up ANY points from Red Bull or Stockholm (assuming he goes, which I think he is.) Same with Snute, just making the RO.16 at Stockholm is enough.
That would put Jaedong at 16th. After that he can be jumped by either soO or Rain if they make the GSL finals. Also by HerO, Pigbaby, Bunny, INnoVation, Scarlett, ForGG, Welmu, Heart, HuK or Golden if they win their respective WCS regions. Scarlett could also tie him by taking second in WCS and winning Red Bull. Each of these individually may be pretty unlikely (although a few of them are actually somewhat likely) but the likelihood of NONE of these happening is also pretty low.
Of course players like soO, Rain, sOs and INnoVation deserve to be in there over Jaedong, especially considering the form he's shown for a lot of the year, but I'd still like to see Jaedong make it. Basically he either needs to get it together and squeeze out of his group (although even going out in third place and picking up 100 points would eliminate a few of these situations), or EG better ship him out to Stockholm if they want him at Blizzcon.
edit* Pigbaby actually only needs to make the semi-finals.
On September 18 2014 04:35 Lazzi wrote: But... where's Pigbaby? He has at least 2000 points from his win in WCS NA but he isn't between soO and Inno.
Innovation is at 1975 points, Pigbaby is at 2200, but Innovation has a ~29% chance to win GSL while Pigbaby only has a ~2.3% chance to win WCS AM. Part of this is because Innovation is already way farther in the tournament being in the semifinals instead of the ro16 so he has less matches he needs to win, also Pigbaby is in the group of death, and Innovation has a really good Aligulac rating.
On September 18 2014 04:36 Torrefy wrote: I think Jaedong is in trouble if he doesn't make it out of his group, especially if he falls out in last place. Which is very possible considering his group. MMA is very likely to make it out of his group and would jump him. sOs just needs to pick up ANY points from Red Bull or Stockholm (assuming he goes, which I think he is.) Same with Snute, just making the RO.16 at Stockholm is enough.
That would put Jaedong at 16th. After that he can be jumped by either soO or Rain if they make the GSL finals. Also by HerO, Pigbaby, Bunny, INnoVation, Scarlett, ForGG, Welmu, Heart, HuK or Golden if they win their respective WCS regions. Scarlett could also tie him by taking second in WCS and winning Red Bull. Each of these individually may be pretty unlikely (although a few of them are actually somewhat likely) but the likelihood of NONE of these happening is also pretty low.
Of course players like soO, Rain, sOs and INnoVation deserve to be in there over Jaedong, especially considering the form he's shown for a lot of the year, but I'd still like to see Jaedong make it. Basically he either needs to get it together and squeeze out of his group (although even going out in third place and picking up 100 points would eliminate a few of these situations), or EG better ship him out to Stockholm if they want him at Blizzcon.
yep
~ 56.89 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 68.56 %
~ 0.43 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 8.5 %
~ 0.43 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Cure gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 8.5 %
~ 0.16 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier and Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 11.17 %
~ 0.59 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Cure gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 11.3 %
~ 0.59 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 11.3 %
~ 0.14 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 11.35 %
~ 0.27 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington and Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 12.73 %
~ 0.75 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 13.11 %
~ 0.38 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington and MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 13.39 %
~ 0.49 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 13.58 %
On September 18 2014 04:35 Lazzi wrote: But... where's Pigbaby? He has at least 2000 points from his win in WCS NA but he isn't between soO and Inno.
Innovation is at 1975 points, Pigbaby is at 2200, but Innovation has a ~29% chance to win GSL while Pigbaby only has a ~2.3% chance to win WCS AM. Part of this is because Innovation is already way farther in the tournament being in the semifinals instead of the ro16 so he has less matches he needs to win, also Pigbaby is in the group of death, and Innovation has a really good Aligulac rating.
That is true, and INno certainly should be above Pigbaby. However it's hard to believe that Pigbaby's chances could be so far below the likes of for example ForGG or Yoda as to not even get him into the top 25. Especially since he doesn't even have to win to give himself a reasonable chance, getting second would give him 3000 points and a decent possibility of making it. ForGG or Yoda or Scarlett or Bunny, etc would have to actually win their WCS regions to make it. That counts for something.
I guess the group of death factor must be really coming into play hard here.
On September 18 2014 04:35 Lazzi wrote: But... where's Pigbaby? He has at least 2000 points from his win in WCS NA but he isn't between soO and Inno.
Innovation is at 1975 points, Pigbaby is at 2200, but Innovation has a ~29% chance to win GSL while Pigbaby only has a ~2.3% chance to win WCS AM. Part of this is because Innovation is already way farther in the tournament being in the semifinals instead of the ro16 so he has less matches he needs to win, also Pigbaby is in the group of death, and Innovation has a really good Aligulac rating.
That is true, and INno certainly should be above Pigbaby. However it's hard to believe that Pigbaby's chances could be so far below the likes of for example ForGG or Yoda as to not even get him into the top 25. Especially since he doesn't even have to win to give himself a reasonable chance, getting second would give him 3000 points and a decent possibility of making it. ForGG or Yoda or Scarlett or Bunny, etc would have to actually win their WCS regions to make it. That counts for something.
I guess the group of death factor must be really coming into play hard here.
Pigbaby also has a pretty low aligulac rating. And Scarlett, Yoda, and Bunny are in the ro8 already.
And yea the group of death factor, he only has a ~36.5% chance to advance from the group, while the other players you mention are I think all above 50% chances to win their next match.
Starts in Pigbaby must win this! This match is important for Jaedong! TaeJa, HyuN, Jaedong, Pigbaby in WCS AM S3 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.44 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.56 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.92 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.08 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 83.29 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.12 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 56.88 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 70.63 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 4.65 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.51 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.52 %. ~ 63.49 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.12 %.
On September 18 2014 04:52 opisska wrote: The answer to the question "which foreigners could qualify" just got quite a bit more simple.
Snute ~ 49.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.58 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.78 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.63 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.19 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.77 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.09 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.73 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.64 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.13 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.54 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.06 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.52 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
On September 18 2014 04:52 opisska wrote: The answer to the question "which foreigners could qualify" just got quite a bit more simple.
Snute ~ 49.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.58 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.78 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.63 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.19 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.77 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.09 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.73 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.64 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.13 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.54 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.06 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.52 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
This is after TLO lost his group? How the hell does he qualify?
On September 18 2014 04:52 opisska wrote: The answer to the question "which foreigners could qualify" just got quite a bit more simple.
Snute ~ 49.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.58 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.78 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.63 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.19 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.77 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.09 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.73 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.64 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.13 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.54 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.06 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.52 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
This is after TLO lost his group? How the hell does he qualify?
Wins dreamhack, wins placement tournament, something like that?
On September 18 2014 04:52 opisska wrote: The answer to the question "which foreigners could qualify" just got quite a bit more simple.
Snute ~ 49.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.58 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.78 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.63 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.19 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.77 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.09 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.73 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.64 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.13 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.54 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.06 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.52 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
This is after TLO lost his group? How the hell does he qualify?
well so far he's only qualified 2 times out of 4 million samples lol, it's literally half of a 1 in a million chance, so it's very rare and almost certainly includes the placeholder tournament and dreamhack, I force the %s to round in such a way that if it's not 0% it won't show 0%, and if it's not 100% then it won't show 100% even if it's really close
Ok thanks, makes sense. I forgot you still have the placeholder (not a critique, I think it is a good idea). I just looked at the results today (not watching games) and i really lol'd that both of the remotely promising foreigners got booted together.
On September 18 2014 05:05 opisska wrote: Ok thanks, makes sense. I forgot you still have the placeholder (not a critique, I think it is a good idea). I just looked at the results today (not watching games) and i really lol'd that both of the remotely promising foreigners got booted together.
Yea, we're getting pretty close though I think I'm gonna turn it down a bit. Right now the placeholder is at 25%, I'm thinking after WCS AM tonight I'm gonna bring it down to just 5%.
--------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Quarterfinals Set! Also added Huk and Bunny to DreamHack Stockholm, and reduced the Placeholder Tournament down to just 5%. Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
Heart (Axiom), is at ~ 6.89 %, Min WCS Points: 1550
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.53 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.01 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 61.14 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 64.36 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 41.17 % in yesterday's post) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,575 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in yesterday's post)
Biggest winners and losers from yesterday's post. Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 12.95 %, going from ~ 17.88 % to ~ 30.83 % Scarlett went up by ~ 9.86 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 20.47 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 6.39 %, going from ~ 4.55 % to ~ 10.94 % Bunny went up by ~ 5.44 %, going from ~ 10.46 % to ~ 15.9 % herO went up by ~ 5.15 %, going from ~ 90.93 % to ~ 96.08 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
MMA went up by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 50.42 % to ~ 55.18 % HerO went up by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 2.55 % to ~ 6.24 % YoDa went up by ~ 2.3 %, going from ~ 5.89 % to ~ 8.19 % Life went up by ~ 1.58 %, going from ~ 97.86 % to ~ 99.44 % Heart went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 5.34 % to ~ 6.89 % HuK went up by ~ 1.42 %, going from ~ 1.91 % to ~ 3.33 % Snute went up by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 69.47 % to ~ 70.73 % Cure went up by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 0.2 % to ~ 0.57 % Classic went up by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 99.86 % to ~ 99.99 %
Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 20.5 %, going from ~ 81.81 % to ~ 61.31 % viOLet went down by ~ 12.28 %, going from ~ 12.45 % to ~ 0.17 % Solar went down by ~ 10.61 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 0.01 % VortiX went down by ~ 5.59 %, going from ~ 5.59 % to ~ 0.01 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 2.65 %, going from ~ 2.65 % to ~ 0.01 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
TLO went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 1.32 % to ~ 0.01 % sOs went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 62.82 % to ~ 61.5 % Golden went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 4.12 % to ~ 3.38 % soO went down by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 18.66 % to ~ 18.05 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.43 %, going from ~ 3.01 % to ~ 2.58 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 12.49 % to ~ 12.19 % Rain went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 14.5 % to ~ 14.26 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 0.55 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 0.82 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 46.14 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.73 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.47 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 20.47 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 4.4 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 15.9 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.15 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.33 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.62 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.58 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Dayshi ~ 0.12 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.55 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.03 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.39 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.82 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 82.28 % to ~ 85.82 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 31.03 % to ~ 26.87 %
So let's take a look at where we're at. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots as argonautdice said. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 5 players over 0.1%. From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances
GSL Rain would gain ~ 85.73 % if they win, with a ~ 14.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 81.93 % if they win, with a ~ 5.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.07 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation would gain ~ 69.18 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.82 % to ~ 99.99 %
WCS AM HerO would gain ~ 93.76 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.07 % if they win, with a ~ 5.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.93 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 79.52 % if they win, with a ~ 18.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 20.48 % to ~ 100 % Heart would gain ~ 78.17 % if they win, with a ~ 8.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.88 % to ~ 85.05 % HuK would gain ~ 60.47 % if they win, with a ~ 5.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.32 % to ~ 63.8 %
WCS EU Welmu would gain ~ 97.42 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 91.76 % if they win, with a ~ 3.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 95.14 % ForGG would gain ~ 87.81 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.19 % to ~ 100 % Bunny would gain ~ 84.1 % if they win, with a ~ 11.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 15.9 % to ~ 100 % MMA would gain ~ 44.83 % if they win, with a ~ 7.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 100 % MaNa would gain ~ 31.52 % if they win, with a ~ 2.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 32.35 % YoDa would gain ~ 30.97 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 39.17 % Dayshi would gain ~ 29.94 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 30.49 %
Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance. Cure would gain ~ 2.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.8 % Stats would gain ~ 0.21 % if they win, with a ~ 11.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.24 % Happy would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 3.75 %
We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them. Snute ~ 5.09 % of the time Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 %
~ 4.61 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 %
~ 8.47 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 14.47 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.94 %
~ 23.15 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 89.08 %
~ 23.37 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 39.5 %
sOs ~ 14.86 % of the time sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.24 % of the time sOs gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %
~ 13.12 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.16 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 %
~ 25.06 % of the time sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.29 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 46.95 % of the time sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 18.04 %
~ 0.46 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 97.18 %
~ 0.7 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 89.81 %
Jaedong ~ 0.13 % of the time Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.12 % of the time Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.23 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.41 % of the time Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 99.8 %
Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here!
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
MMA is in a much better position from the bottom 4 of the top 16... he will almost assuredly win his ro16 group, which would give him an additional 300 points. He has to be a favorite over most of the remaining players in WCS EU
On September 18 2014 14:42 Trasko wrote: Jaedong has to go to Dreamhack Stockholm so he can regain the points he lost T_T
IMHO if he can't make ro8 in WCS NA once, he doesn't deserve to be at Blizzcon. Every other player in the top 25 of the ranking has made at least one quarterfinals, the same can be said for every player in the top 32 with Flash being the only one not to reach one.
On September 18 2014 17:26 Shellshock wrote: I just feel like it's unacceptable if soO doesn't make it but his chances have really gone down after that unsuccessful kespa cup
Yes, if only he could have beaten Super in that 400 points match. I hope SKT1 can maybe send him to Stockholm, but I fear, that annoying kespa-politics would stand in the way of that.
On September 18 2014 17:58 Xoronius wrote: Yes, if only he could have beaten Super in that 400 points match. I hope SKT1 can maybe send him to Stockholm, but I fear, that annoying kespa-politics would stand in the way of that.
It's not so much politics this time as his GSL semi conflicts with Stockholm.
Get 2nd in WCS/GSL should give more points, at least 1250.
Going from 8th to 3rd/4th gives a player more 250 WCS points same difference when going from semifinals to finals, but winning gives you +1000 more points than getting 2nd. I dont think it s fair for the second .
On September 18 2014 22:13 Appelsoep wrote: Zest will win, he is just too solid in any part of the game ( you should watch his gsl match vs life, amazing).
On September 18 2014 22:31 phfantunes wrote: Maybe if soO gets to the finals Zest will forfeit since he's already qualified. soO in Blizzcon is a lot better than a GSL title Zest.
That would never happen. Why would Zest give up the chance to win a GSL? soO's not even his teammate
On September 18 2014 17:58 Xoronius wrote: Yes, if only he could have beaten Super in that 400 points match. I hope SKT1 can maybe send him to Stockholm, but I fear, that annoying kespa-politics would stand in the way of that.
It's not so much politics this time as his GSL semi conflicts with Stockholm.
On September 18 2014 17:58 Xoronius wrote: Yes, if only he could have beaten Super in that 400 points match. I hope SKT1 can maybe send him to Stockholm, but I fear, that annoying kespa-politics would stand in the way of that.
It's not so much politics this time as his GSL semi conflicts with Stockholm.
Since Cure and Innovation isn't going to be at DreamHack, maybe they asked to have the ro4 schedule swapped so that soO plays on Wednesday instead of Friday.
On September 18 2014 17:58 Xoronius wrote: Yes, if only he could have beaten Super in that 400 points match. I hope SKT1 can maybe send him to Stockholm, but I fear, that annoying kespa-politics would stand in the way of that.
It's not so much politics this time as his GSL semi conflicts with Stockholm.
Since Cure and Innovation isn't going to be at DreamHack, maybe they asked to have the ro4 schedule swapped so that soO plays on Wednesday instead of Friday.
Ugh this is the fucking problem. After looking at these brackets... Its just looks like a stacked Dreamhack which is great and all but we all wanted WCS Global Finals to be the whole world, we wanted Kespa rubbing shoulders with everyone else. The only thing that can save this is if JD can win it. Other than that it'll feel just like another Dreamhack and not the world fucking finals.
I don't understand how Snute can have such a high chance when some players below him have more potential points.
Snute only has Dreamhack to secure his spot at Blizzcon.
soO has Dreamhack and GSL. Granted soO is facing some really scary Protoss players, but I still see him having a greater chance due to more opportunities. That is if he can attend both, because there might be scheduling conflicts.
Immediately after I do that big analysis, Dreamhack screws it up lol.
On September 19 2014 00:10 Jett.Jack.Alvir wrote: I don't understand how Snute can have such a high chance when some players below him have more potential points.
Snute only has Dreamhack to secure his spot at Blizzcon.
soO has Dreamhack and GSL. Granted soO is facing some really scary Protoss players, but I still see him having a greater chance due to more opportunities. That is if he can attend both, because there might be scheduling conflicts.
I don't have soO's confirmation for DreamHack in yet, adding the full player list now. Also Snute losing immediately in DreamHack still has a better chance than soO because Snute has many more points already.
On September 19 2014 00:02 Digitalis wrote: Ugh this is the fucking problem. After looking at these brackets... Its just looks like a stacked Dreamhack which is great and all but we all wanted WCS Global Finals to be the whole world, we wanted Kespa rubbing shoulders with everyone else. The only thing that can save this is if JD can win it. Other than that it'll feel just like another Dreamhack and not the world fucking finals.
No offense, but this should have been a pretty obvious conclusion at the start of the 2014 system with the changes they made.
On September 19 2014 00:02 Digitalis wrote: Ugh this is the fucking problem. After looking at these brackets... Its just looks like a stacked Dreamhack which is great and all but we all wanted WCS Global Finals to be the whole world, we wanted Kespa rubbing shoulders with everyone else. The only thing that can save this is if JD can win it. Other than that it'll feel just like another Dreamhack and not the world fucking finals.
Jaedong's example this season is pretty much biggest thing which should force the system to change, because Jaedong hadn't done shit whole year and still almost guaranteed to advance until everything flops hardcore.
i guess for the next year you need to also predict scheduling conflicts and include that if someone gets too deep in wcs they will not sign up for dreamhacks. also you need to guess how much travel money each player gets and run only scenarios where they dont overshoot the budget
On September 19 2014 01:09 opisska wrote: i guess for the next year you need to also predict scheduling conflicts and include that if someone gets too deep in wcs they will not sign up for dreamhacks. also you need to guess how much travel money each player gets and run only scenarios where they dont overshoot the budget
I think it'd be easier to build a time machine and just tell you who makes it to blizzcon lol, or keep it a secret and just use my knowledge for the player listings for each tournament
On September 19 2014 00:02 Digitalis wrote: Ugh this is the fucking problem. After looking at these brackets... Its just looks like a stacked Dreamhack which is great and all but we all wanted WCS Global Finals to be the whole world, we wanted Kespa rubbing shoulders with everyone else. The only thing that can save this is if JD can win it. Other than that it'll feel just like another Dreamhack and not the world fucking finals.
Jaedong's example this season is pretty much biggest thing which should force the system to change, because Jaedong hadn't done shit whole year and still almost guaranteed to advance until everything flops hardcore.
As you can see this year what happens when HyuN also takes all the ladder points from WCS AM (infinity points), as well as what happens when you nerf WCS events and buff every other mom & pop event (Jaedong on lock anyway).
Breaking news, koreans decide to attend Dreamhack, foreigner chances plummet! Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % down to ~ 74.61 %, chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.88 % down to ~ 18.18 %. Will post more soon.
On September 19 2014 01:25 Die4Ever wrote: Breaking news, koreans decide to attend Dreamhack, foreigner chances plummet! Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % down to ~ 74.61 %, chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.88 % down to ~ 18.18 %. Will post more soon.
HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 8.08 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.16 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.31 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 44.7 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 64.36 % in yesterday's post) ~ 51.99 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,575 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Biggest winners and losers since yesterday's post before the full Stockholm player list was set. Biggest Winners soO went up by ~ 12.6 %, going from ~ 18.08 % to ~ 30.68 % MMA went up by ~ 10.19 %, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 65.36 % YoDa went up by ~ 5.11 %, going from ~ 8.19 % to ~ 13.31 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.36 %, going from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 64.65 % HerO went up by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 8.08 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 0.82 % to ~ 0.98 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 17.23 %, going from ~ 70.75 % to ~ 53.52 % sOs went down by ~ 3.78 %, going from ~ 61.51 % to ~ 57.73 % Life went down by ~ 2.58 %, going from ~ 99.43 % to ~ 96.85 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.89 %, going from ~ 15.88 % to ~ 13.99 % Heart went down by ~ 1.75 %, going from ~ 6.89 % to ~ 5.14 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
ForGG went down by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 12.18 % to ~ 11.21 % HuK went down by ~ 0.9 %, going from ~ 3.33 % to ~ 2.43 % herO went down by ~ 0.77 %, going from ~ 96.08 % to ~ 95.31 % Classic went down by ~ 0.74 %, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 99.25 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 20.49 % to ~ 19.87 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 10.92 % to ~ 10.36 % Happy went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 0.38 % to ~ 0.1 % Cure went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 0.31 % Golden went down by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 3.38 % to ~ 3.12 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 0.32 % INnoVation went down by ~ 0.19 %, going from ~ 30.81 % to ~ 30.62 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.17 % to ~ 0.03 % Rain went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 14.26 % to ~ 14.15 %
Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 37.97 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 53.52 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 9.75 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.87 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 6.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.99 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.43 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 1.07 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.63 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] +
MaNa ~ 0.25 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.98 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.11 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.32 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.1 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall.
Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 85.82 % to ~ 74.6 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 26.87 % to ~ 18.16 %
So let's do another checkup lol. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 3 players over 0.1%. From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances
GSL Rain would gain ~ 85.86 % if they win, with a ~ 14.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.14 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 5.42 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation would gain ~ 68.91 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.62 % to ~ 99.54 %
WCS AM HerO would gain ~ 91.92 % if they win, with a ~ 6.02 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.63 % if they win, with a ~ 6.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.37 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 80.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.86 % to ~ 99.99 % Heart would gain ~ 59.62 % if they win, with a ~ 7.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 5.14 % to ~ 64.76 % HuK would gain ~ 44.64 % if they win, with a ~ 5.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 47.06 %
WCS EU Welmu would gain ~ 97.36 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 99.99 % ForGG would gain ~ 88.79 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 99.99 % Bunny would gain ~ 86.01 % if they win, with a ~ 11.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 85.02 % if they win, with a ~ 3.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 88.14 % YoDa would gain ~ 50.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 63.53 % MaNa would gain ~ 37.55 % if they win, with a ~ 2.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 38.54 % MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 % Dayshi would gain ~ 17.31 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 17.63 %
Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance, probably relying on the Placeholder Tournament. Cure would gain ~ 1.21 % if they win, with a ~ 20.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 1.53 % Stats would gain ~ 0.03 % if they win, with a ~ 11.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 % Happy would gain ~ 0.86 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.96 %
~ 7.56 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 %
~ 14.71 % of the time MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 99.92 %
~ 28.35 % of the time MMA gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 80.52 %
~ 12.92 % of the time Bunny gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 10.41 %
~ 8.17 % of the time ForGG gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 6.01 %
~ 25.51 % of the time Bunny gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 3.27 %
~ 15.1 % of the time ForGG gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 1.98 %
~ 4.54 % of the time Welmu gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 1.12 %
~ 10.85 % of the time Welmu gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 0.09 %
~ 49.8 % of the time Bunny gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 0.09 %
~ 5.8 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 0.03 %
~ 26.96 % of the time ForGG gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 0.02 %
~ 13.78 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 0.02 %
~ 24.49 % of the time YoDa gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.3 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 3.34 % of the time Dayshi gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Dayshi's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 26.88 % of the time Welmu gets 8th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 4.4 % of the time MaNa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MaNa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 0.01 %
~ 12.33 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0 %
We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them. Snute ~ 3.01 % of the time Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 100 %
~ 3.13 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 6.07 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 99.85 %
~ 11.48 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 93.74 %
~ 20.74 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 68.66 %
~ 27.81 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 53.53 % to ~ 29.36 %
sOs ~ 14.85 % of the time sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 %
~ 13.12 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 99.97 %
~ 25.06 % of the time sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 98.97 %
~ 46.97 % of the time sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 10.58 %
Jaedong ~ 2.25 % of the time Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 100 %
~ 2.67 % of the time Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 5.33 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 99.86 %
~ 10.52 % of the time Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 94.81 %
~ 19.91 % of the time Jaedong gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 74.58 %
~ 29.02 % of the time Jaedong gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.65 % to ~ 49.82 %
Then we also have Red Bull Washington and DreamHack Stockholm. Red Bull Washington Winning Gains sOs would gain ~ 42.26 % if they win, with a ~ 14.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 57.74 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 5.36 % if they win, with a ~ 14.74 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.87 % to ~ 25.22 % Cure would gain ~ 2.05 % if they win, with a ~ 12.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.31 % to ~ 2.37 % PartinG would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 14.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 15.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Bomber would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 10.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.73 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Trap would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
DreamHack Stockholm Winning Gains soO would gain ~ 69.32 % if they win, with a ~ 3.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.68 % to ~ 99.99 % HerO would gain ~ 59.79 % if they win, with a ~ 1.36 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 67.86 % Snute would gain ~ 46.48 % if they win, with a ~ 3.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 53.52 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong would gain ~ 35.34 % if they win, with a ~ 2.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 64.66 % to ~ 100 % MMA would gain ~ 34.65 % if they win, with a ~ 3.71 % chance to win, going from ~ 65.35 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Bunny would gain ~ 30.81 % if they win, with a ~ 4.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.99 % to ~ 44.81 % ForGG would gain ~ 14.28 % if they win, with a ~ 4.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.21 % to ~ 25.49 % YoDa would gain ~ 7.65 % if they win, with a ~ 7.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 13.29 % to ~ 20.94 % herO would gain ~ 4.7 % if they win, with a ~ 6.77 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.3 % to ~ 100 % Welmu would gain ~ 4.69 % if they win, with a ~ 1.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.63 % to ~ 7.32 % Life would gain ~ 3.15 % if they win, with a ~ 5.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 96.85 % to ~ 100 % HuK would gain ~ 2.8 % if they win, with a ~ 1.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 5.22 % MaNa would gain ~ 1.6 % if they win, with a ~ 0.97 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 2.58 % Dayshi would gain ~ 1.48 % if they win, with a ~ 1.85 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.32 % to ~ 1.8 % Classic would gain ~ 0.75 % if they win, with a ~ 3.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.25 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 0.49 % if they win, with a ~ 1.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.12 % to ~ 3.62 % Solar would gain ~ 0.08 % if they win, with a ~ 4.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.08 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.05 % if they win, with a ~ 2.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % TLO would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.78 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Oz would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % First would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 3.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % jjakji would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % MorroW would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MarineLord would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Blysk would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kane would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.31 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Zanster would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % SortOf would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % PiG would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ret would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % DeMusliM would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ToD would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Grubby would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % uThermal would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Leenock would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.27 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Lilbow would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.48 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here!
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
On September 18 2014 22:13 Appelsoep wrote: Zest will win, he is just too solid in any part of the game ( you should watch his gsl match vs life, amazing).
Aligulac must really love Yoda. It's giving him the highest percentage chance to win wcs eu AND dreamhack. Higher than herO, soO, Polt, MMA, Hyun, etc.
Top 8 for Snute at DH should give him an amazing chance to make Blizzcon. Even Top 16 could do it but that's probably dependent on soO tripping up in GSL and this tournament.
Wow why didn't I think of formating it like that? Thanks for the idea, I'll have to steal it for the tournament pages on the 2015 version, and could also do it similar on the player pages, or maybe even this year. Anyways, I love it, thanks.
Wow why didn't I think of formating it like that? Thanks for the idea, I'll have to steal it for the tournament pages on the 2015 version, and could also do it similar on the player pages, or maybe even this year. Anyways, I love it, thanks.
On September 19 2014 19:40 SuperHofmann wrote: soO deserves the BlizzCon more than anyone. No way.
I would not say more than anyone but with Jaedong and particularly Snute doing basically nothing all year just attending so many events picking up round of 8/16 points it would be pretty tragic to see them qualify over him
On September 19 2014 19:40 SuperHofmann wrote: soO deserves the BlizzCon more than anyone. No way.
I would not say more than anyone but with Jaedong and particularly Snute doing basically nothing all year just attending so many events picking up round of 8/16 points it would be pretty tragic to see them qualify over him
He's been in every Ro4 for the most difficult region all year, if he wins in the semis he's been in every final. I'd say he almost certainly deserves it more than anyone else.
On September 19 2014 19:40 SuperHofmann wrote: soO deserves the BlizzCon more than anyone. No way.
I would not say more than anyone but with Jaedong and particularly Snute doing basically nothing all year just attending so many events picking up round of 8/16 points it would be pretty tragic to see them qualify over him
He's been in every Ro4 for the most difficult region all year, if he wins in the semis he's been in every final. I'd say he almost certainly deserves it more than anyone else.
Consistency is great however at a certain point if he cannot get it done and win a major event that is a problem
On September 17 2014 00:32 Dingodile wrote: I still dont understand why Scarlett, Cure and DRG get some points automatically. What happened?
It's because the tournaments they won to qualify did not give WCS points. If you get WCS points and a seed to get more WCS points then it's double dipping, it would basically be a cheap trick to have your tournament give more WCS points than Blizzard allows, so they have these rules in place. It would be pretty dumb if you won a tournament to get 750 WCS points, and then get seeded to automatically get at least 250 more lol.
Well... then Parting and sOs didn't get WCS points either for RBBG:NY, but that is from last year. who knows what kind of agreement Red Bull and Blizzard came out with.
On September 19 2014 19:40 SuperHofmann wrote: soO deserves the BlizzCon more than anyone. No way.
I would not say more than anyone but with Jaedong and particularly Snute doing basically nothing all year just attending so many events picking up round of 8/16 points it would be pretty tragic to see them qualify over him
He's been in every Ro4 for the most difficult region all year, if he wins in the semis he's been in every final. I'd say he almost certainly deserves it more than anyone else.
Consistency is great however at a certain point if he cannot get it done and win a major event that is a problem
Obviously, Soo doesn't deserve it more than Zest and maybe even Classic. But I would argue he deserves it more than just about everybody else, especially the guys who racked all their points getting consistent Ro8 and Ro16 in foreign tournaments, getting 125-250 points beating a single Korean.
soO got 2 shots, GSL and dreamhack stockolm. My bonjwa sense tells me his chances are above 60% But its just my bonjwa sense after all. Also my anti-bonjwa sense is crying because i think jaedong is out Im already chanting 2015 year of Jaedong.
The numbers on front page are not updated with GSL right? Because they are different from the chart. Turns out my bonjwa sense that i mentioned above is statistically accurate, but when the numbers get updated my comment will start to make no sense Nice feature btw, gives a nice idea of how important each tournament is for each player edit: what is wrong with Scarlett chances with RBB results? 8th and 2nd is the same? o_O and 4th is better wtf edit2: at least for me the "first post on thread shows ~30.68% for soO
The numbers on front page are not updated with GSL right? Because they are different from the chart. Turns out my bonjwa sense that i mentioned above is statistically accurate, but when the numbers get updated my comment will start to make no sense Nice feature btw, gives a nice idea of how important each tournament is for each player
It is updated with GSL, you can tell cause it's only 4 players left soO had a big gain. I update the stats usually a few times every day.
On September 17 2014 00:32 Dingodile wrote: I still dont understand why Scarlett, Cure and DRG get some points automatically. What happened?
It's because the tournaments they won to qualify did not give WCS points. If you get WCS points and a seed to get more WCS points then it's double dipping, it would basically be a cheap trick to have your tournament give more WCS points than Blizzard allows, so they have these rules in place. It would be pretty dumb if you won a tournament to get 750 WCS points, and then get seeded to automatically get at least 250 more lol.
Well... then Parting and sOs didn't get WCS points either for RBBG:NY, but that is from last year. who knows what kind of agreement Red Bull and Blizzard came out with.
Because last year it was after Blizzcon, as well as Hot6ix Cup and WCG.
Red Bull Washington - sOs is at ~ 58.75 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.51 % of the time sOs wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.65 %. ~ 42.49 % of the time sOs loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.39 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DongRaeGu is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.46 % of the time DongRaeGu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 48.54 % of the time DongRaeGu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.65 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 51.35 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.37 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.63 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Red Bull Washington - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.5 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 49.5 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PartinG is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.14 % of the time PartinG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 49.86 % of the time PartinG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 19.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.88 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 20.16 %. ~ 50.12 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 18.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.05 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.48 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.09 %. ~ 50.52 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Winning Chances sOs has a ~ 15.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.75 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 14.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett has a ~ 14.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.49 % to ~ 23.18 % PartinG has a ~ 13.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Cure has a ~ 12.56 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.32 % Bomber has a ~ 10.55 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 10.44 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Trap has a ~ 7.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Biggest Winners Jaedong went up by ~ 14.23 %, going from ~ 60.34 % to ~ 74.57 % Snute went up by ~ 13.31 %, going from ~ 49.35 % to ~ 62.67 % soO went up by ~ 8.06 %, going from ~ 62.36 % to ~ 70.42 % MMA went up by ~ 4.9 %, going from ~ 62.35 % to ~ 67.25 % herO went up by ~ 3.83 %, going from ~ 93.95 % to ~ 97.78 % Life went up by ~ 2.73 %, going from ~ 95.91 % to ~ 98.65 % YoDa went up by ~ 2.03 %, going from ~ 11.69 % to ~ 13.72 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 1.29 %, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 11.02 % Heart went up by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 5.05 % to ~ 6.31 % Classic went up by ~ 0.83 %, going from ~ 98.94 % to ~ 99.77 % HuK went up by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 3.22 % HerO went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 7.87 % to ~ 8.22 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 13.63 % to ~ 13.98 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 1.03 % to ~ 1.38 % Golden went up by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 3.41 % INnoVation went up by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 29.69 % to ~ 29.94 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.24 %, going from ~ 19.5 % to ~ 19.74 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 11.13 % to ~ 11.29 %
Biggest Loser sOs went down by ~ 55.29 %, going from ~ 58.8 % to ~ 3.51 %
On September 21 2014 03:57 digmouse wrote: Is sOs' loss the biggest drop down in chances ever in the history of WCS? Going from 58% to less than 3% is mindblowing.
It might be the biggest cause he was near 92% at one point, but that was also when I thought none of the 8 at red bull were guaranteed points.
On September 21 2014 03:57 digmouse wrote: Is sOs' loss the biggest drop down in chances ever in the history of WCS? Going from 58% to less than 3% is mindblowing.
It might be the biggest cause he was near 92% at one point, but that was also when I thought none of the 8 at red bull were guaranteed points.
Ah yes, Cure, Scarlett and DRG are guaranteed 250 points since they are seeded through qualifiers, the rest needs to advance to RO4 to receive points.
On September 20 2014 03:40 Superbanana wrote: soO got 2 shots, GSL and dreamhack stockolm. My bonjwa sense tells me his chances are above 60% But its just my bonjwa sense after all. Also my anti-bonjwa sense is crying because i think jaedong is out Im already chanting 2015 year of Jaedong.
soO cannot play GSL and Stockholm simultaneously. Stockholm group stage 2 (that's where he'll be seeded) starts 5 hours after his GSL semifinal match starts, unless soO is a teleporter of course.
Whatever, this is extremely skewed by proleague which is just not comparable to playing individual leagues. In the proleague format, a big part of your success is the coach's decision to give you a specific map and try to gamble on a specific kind of opponent.
I agree with giving GSL more points, it would make all the sense in the world. But the argument for this is not Flash's, Rain's and sOs's winrate massively based on PL.
On September 21 2014 05:38 opisska wrote: Whatever, this is extremely skewed by proleague which is just not comparable to playing individual leagues. In the proleague format, a big part of your success is the coach's decision to give you a specific map and try to gamble on a specific kind of opponent.
I agree with giving GSL more points, it would make all the sense in the world. But the argument for this is not Flash's, Rain's and sOs's winrate massively based on PL.
PL is Bo1, a lot of those games came from Bo3 and Bo5 in foreign tournaments and Kespa cup. Even ignoring that, it's ridiculous to give coaches all or even most of the credit for proleague wins.
Also, Innovation played no PL games and had a higher winrate against Koreans than any WCS NA or EU player.
On September 21 2014 05:58 Aeromi wrote: Why is sOs at 3% when he was at ~60% at the start of the event.
He had to get past the group stage which he didn't.
Yes but I don't get how you can lose 55 % for one event.
He had to get past the group stage in order to get enough points to likely qualify and he had a 57%ish chance of doing that. However, now he probably won't have enough points.
On September 21 2014 05:58 Aeromi wrote: Why is sOs at 3% when he was at ~60% at the start of the event.
Let's say you have 1 match that determines it all for you (this is basically how it was for sOs). If you have a 50% chance to win the match, and your chances go to 100% when you win and 0% when you lose, then your current Blizzcon chances are 50%.
Biggest Winners Jaedong went up by ~ 14.48 %, going from ~ 60.34 % to ~ 74.82 % Snute went up by ~ 13.57 %, going from ~ 49.35 % to ~ 62.93 % soO went up by ~ 8.28 %, going from ~ 62.36 % to ~ 70.64 % MMA went up by ~ 4.94 %, going from ~ 62.35 % to ~ 67.29 % herO went up by ~ 3.83 %, going from ~ 93.95 % to ~ 97.77 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Life went up by ~ 2.71 %, going from ~ 95.91 % to ~ 98.62 % YoDa went up by ~ 2.1 %, going from ~ 11.69 % to ~ 13.79 % Heart went up by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 5.05 % to ~ 6.17 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 9.74 % to ~ 10.79 % Classic went up by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 98.94 % to ~ 99.76 % HuK went up by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 3.17 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.39 %, going from ~ 13.63 % to ~ 14.02 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 1.03 % to ~ 1.39 % HerO went up by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 7.87 % to ~ 8.18 % Golden went up by ~ 0.26 %, going from ~ 3.13 % to ~ 3.39 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.18 %, going from ~ 11.13 % to ~ 11.32 % Cure went up by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.19 %
Biggest Loser sOs went down by ~ 55.3 %, going from ~ 58.8 % to ~ 3.5 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 3.65 % of the time 2,850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.66 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 55.9 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 92.99 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Top 25 Chances
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
Red Bull Washington - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.09 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 49.91 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.91 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 50.09 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
Red Bull Washington - Cure is at ~ 0.19 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.52 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.33 %. ~ 46.48 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.48 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 53.52 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances Polt has a ~ 28.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Cure has a ~ 27.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.61 % Bomber has a ~ 27.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Trap has a ~ 16.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
For those of you wondering, here's what has to happen for Cure to go to blizzcon, assuming no other tournaments are announced and he doesn't go to Dreamhack. ALL of these have to happen.
-Cure wins Redbull (duh) -Cure wins GSL (duh) -sOs loses in the group stages of redbull (already happened) -sOs doesn't go to dreamhack -MMA doesn't make it to the RO8 of WCS EU -Pigbaby doesn't make it to the finals of WCS AM -Bunny doesn't make it past the RO8 of WCS EU OR Bunny doesn't make it past the RO4 and doesn't win Dreamhack OR Bunny doesn't win WCS EU and doesn't get top 4 in Dreamhack -Scarlett/Heart/YoDa/Golden/HuK/HerO don't win their regions
On September 21 2014 10:03 The_Templar wrote: For those of you wondering, here's what has to happen for Cure to go to blizzcon, assuming no other tournaments are announced and he doesn't go to Dreamhack. ALL of these have to happen.
-Cure wins Redbull (duh) -Cure wins GSL (duh) -sOs loses in the group stages of redbull (already happened) -sOs doesn't go to dreamhack -MMA doesn't make it to the RO8 of WCS EU -Pigbaby doesn't make it to the finals of WCS AM -Bunny doesn't make it past the RO8 of WCS EU OR Bunny doesn't make it past the RO4 and doesn't win Dreamhack OR Bunny doesn't win WCS EU and doesn't get top 4 in Dreamhack -Scarlett/Heart/YoDa/Golden/HuK/HerO don't win their regions
IF all this happens, he ties with sOs for 16th.
So what you're saying is I should put money down on him making it?
On September 21 2014 10:03 The_Templar wrote: For those of you wondering, here's what has to happen for Cure to go to blizzcon, assuming no other tournaments are announced and he doesn't go to Dreamhack. ALL of these have to happen.
-Cure wins Redbull (duh) -Cure wins GSL (duh) -sOs loses in the group stages of redbull (already happened) -sOs doesn't go to dreamhack -MMA doesn't make it to the RO8 of WCS EU -Pigbaby doesn't make it to the finals of WCS AM -Bunny doesn't make it past the RO8 of WCS EU OR Bunny doesn't make it past the RO4 and doesn't win Dreamhack OR Bunny doesn't win WCS EU and doesn't get top 4 in Dreamhack -Scarlett/Heart/YoDa/Golden/HuK/HerO don't win their regions
IF all this happens, he ties with sOs for 16th.
So what you're saying is I should put money down on him making it?
Put like 5 dollars on and get really good odds on it. It's more likely than it looks.
On September 21 2014 05:38 opisska wrote: Whatever, this is extremely skewed by proleague which is just not comparable to playing individual leagues. In the proleague format, a big part of your success is the coach's decision to give you a specific map and try to gamble on a specific kind of opponent.
I agree with giving GSL more points, it would make all the sense in the world. But the argument for this is not Flash's, Rain's and sOs's winrate massively based on PL.
I wouldn't exactly call Flash, Rain and sOs as individual league slouches. The only player on that list who isn't good at individual leagues is Stats.
In terms of giving undeserved points, the structure of certain tournaments like IEM and Dreamhack is worse than any possible Proleague points.
On September 21 2014 05:38 opisska wrote: Whatever, this is extremely skewed by proleague which is just not comparable to playing individual leagues. In the proleague format, a big part of your success is the coach's decision to give you a specific map and try to gamble on a specific kind of opponent.
I agree with giving GSL more points, it would make all the sense in the world. But the argument for this is not Flash's, Rain's and sOs's winrate massively based on PL.
I wouldn't exactly call Flash, Rain and sOs as individual league slouches. The only player on that list who isn't good at individual leagues is Stats.
In terms of giving undeserved points, the structure of certain tournaments like IEM and Dreamhack is worse than any possible Proleague points.
winning a 1v1 against anyone good enough to play in proleague is certainly as impressive as beating some foreigner or mc or hyun or something in a foreign tournament, and its not like blizzard is going to give out 1000 points per single win
its stupid to treat proleague as any different when its a higher caliber of play than anything foreign
Starts in Cure, Bomber in Red Bull Washington - Cure is at ~ 0.36 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.22 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.66 %. ~ 47.78 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bomber is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.78 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 52.22 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
Here are the 10 events that give Cure the best Blizzcon chances.
~ 0.09 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Polt gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 29.01 %
~ 0.14 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 24.18 %
~ 0.15 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 and Golden wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 15.92 %
~ 0.29 % of the time Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and Cure wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 and Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Zest gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 15.54 %
~ 0.43 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 15.43 %
~ 0.24 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Zest gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 15.34 %
~ 0.28 % of the time Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and Cure wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 and San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Bomber gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 13.22 %
~ 0.11 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Polt gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Pigbaby loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 12.95 %
~ 0.16 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and MMA gets 64th in DreamHack Stockholm and Pigbaby loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 12.95 %
~ 0.2 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Cure wins their next match in Red Bull Washington ro2 and StarDust gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Polt gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Cure's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.36 % to ~ 12.94 %
On September 21 2014 05:38 opisska wrote: Whatever, this is extremely skewed by proleague which is just not comparable to playing individual leagues. In the proleague format, a big part of your success is the coach's decision to give you a specific map and try to gamble on a specific kind of opponent.
I agree with giving GSL more points, it would make all the sense in the world. But the argument for this is not Flash's, Rain's and sOs's winrate massively based on PL.
If Cure wins both Redbull and code S he'll end up at 2850 points, which is only enough to match sOs. hell would need to freeze over for MMA to not win his ro16 group and advance to pass them both on points.
Hmmm it might not matter what I do with it since it's unlikely there will be another #1 vs #2 match anyways. I could give it back to sOs who was the previous holder. How does the Unofficial World Champion handle retirements? I'll probably just leave it with Effort for this year. Hopefully next year the headbands are more successful, since I'll be doing 4 instead of just 2 there should be more movement of the #1.
Hmmm it might not matter what I do with it since it's unlikely there will be another #1 vs #2 match anyways. I could give it back to sOs who was the previous holder. How does the Unofficial World Champion handle retirements? I'll probably just leave it with Effort for this year. Hopefully next year the headbands are more successful, since I'll be doing 4 instead of just 2 there should be more movement of the #1.
Hmmm it might not matter what I do with it since it's unlikely there will be another #1 vs #2 match anyways. I could give it back to sOs who was the previous holder. How does the Unofficial World Champion handle retirements? I'll probably just leave it with Effort for this year. Hopefully next year the headbands are more successful, since I'll be doing 4 instead of just 2 there should be more movement of the #1.
UWC has never had a retirement (though they did have a Bear). The closest thing to an official comment on the issue is "if they retire, they will officially be the first SC2 bonjwa."
On September 22 2014 17:33 Koerage wrote: so Cure cant make it anymore right? unless there's gonna be some other tournament that gives WCS points
Correct, unless he goes to Dreamhack Stockholm he can't. It's also likely that his RO4 match vs INnoVation will be moved to Friday to accommodate soO going to Dreamhack.
On September 22 2014 17:33 Koerage wrote: so Cure cant make it anymore right? unless there's gonna be some other tournament that gives WCS points
Correct, unless he goes to Dreamhack Stockholm he can't. It's also likely that his RO4 match vs INnoVation will be moved to Friday to accommodate soO going to Dreamhack.
And in fact it has, according to Liquipedia anyway.
With MMA's win, he is now very close to securing his spot, even if he loses every match from here he would still be at about 76.5% Blizzcon chances. Here's the top 25 by chances
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
Biggest winners and losers from WCS EU group C (I also lowered the placeholder from 5% down to 1%, which makes a very small difference) Biggest Winners MMA went up by ~ 26.19 %, going from ~ 67.44 % to ~ 93.63 % Golden went up by ~ 2.41 %, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 5.79 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 5.53 %, going from ~ 63.5 % to ~ 57.97 % Jaedong went down by ~ 5.08 %, going from ~ 75.36 % to ~ 70.28 % soO went down by ~ 4.05 %, going from ~ 70.93 % to ~ 66.88 % sOs went down by ~ 3.72 %, going from ~ 3.78 % to ~ 0.06 % Welmu went down by ~ 2.64 %, going from ~ 2.64 % to ~ 0.01 % YoDa went down by ~ 1.46 %, going from ~ 13.89 % to ~ 12.43 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
MaNa went down by ~ 1.4 %, going from ~ 1.4 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 14.01 % to ~ 12.67 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 10.31 % to ~ 9.44 % herO went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 97.86 % to ~ 97.17 % Life went down by ~ 0.43 %, going from ~ 98.68 % to ~ 98.25 % HerO went down by ~ 0.33 %, going from ~ 7.94 % to ~ 7.6 % Heart went down by ~ 0.33 %, going from ~ 6.29 % to ~ 5.96 % HuK went down by ~ 0.31 %, going from ~ 3.11 % to ~ 2.8 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 11.28 % to ~ 11.12 %
Also there's a big GSL match tonight! Starts in This match is important for soO! Zest, soO in GSL S3 Code S Zest has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - Zest is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.49 % of the time Zest wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 34.51 % of the time Zest loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 66.88 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.51 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.45 %. ~ 65.49 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 50.25 %.
And this match affects some other players too (on the GSL page I used the event filters "single upcoming wins zest soo")
-If soO wins This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.97 % to ~ 46.8 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.28 % to ~ 60.36 % This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.63 % to ~ 90.6 % This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 97.17 % to ~ 94.98 % This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 30.62 % to ~ 32.66 %
-If Zest wins This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 57.97 % to ~ 63.86 % This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.28 % to ~ 75.5 % This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.63 % to ~ 95.23 % This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 97.17 % to ~ 98.32 %
On September 24 2014 08:16 William paradise wrote: wait is there a possibility Jaedong and Scarlett tie for16th spot if Scarlett gets second she get 1000 points takes her to 2950 same as Jaedong.
No, Scarlett already has some points for finishing at least top 8, which are factored in.
On September 24 2014 08:16 William paradise wrote: wait is there a possibility Jaedong and Scarlett tie for16th spot if Scarlett gets second she get 1000 points takes her to 2950 same as Jaedong.
No, Scarlett already has some points for finishing at least top 8, which are factored in.
Uh? so she has more then 1950? how does that work? just wondering im not all that up to date on how the points work. and if she does have more doesn't that mean all she has to do is get second and she's in right?
On September 24 2014 08:16 William paradise wrote: wait is there a possibility Jaedong and Scarlett tie for16th spot if Scarlett gets second she get 1000 points takes her to 2950 same as Jaedong.
No, Scarlett already has some points for finishing at least top 8, which are factored in.
Uh? so she has more then 1950? how does that work? just wondering im not all that up to date on how the points work.
No. If she loses in the RO8 of WCS and gets no other points, she has 1950 points, including the 500 from top 8 of WCS America. If she reaches the finals and loses she gets 1000 total points from WCS America, which is 500 more than her current minimum, for 2450 points.
The 1950 listed on the site are the minimum points that Scarlett could possibly have at the end of the year.
On September 24 2014 08:26 William paradise wrote:
On September 24 2014 08:23 The_Templar wrote:
On September 24 2014 08:16 William paradise wrote: wait is there a possibility Jaedong and Scarlett tie for16th spot if Scarlett gets second she get 1000 points takes her to 2950 same as Jaedong.
No, Scarlett already has some points for finishing at least top 8, which are factored in.
Uh? so she has more then 1950? how does that work? just wondering im not all that up to date on how the points work.
No. If she loses in the RO8 of WCS and gets no other points, she has 1950 points, including the 500 from top 8 of WCS America. If she reaches the finals and loses she gets 1000 total points from WCS America, which is 500 more than her current minimum, for 2450 points.
The 1950 listed on the site are the minimum points that Scarlett could possibly have at the end of the year.
ok cool thanks for answering (even though you hate on Scarlett)
On September 24 2014 08:26 William paradise wrote:
On September 24 2014 08:23 The_Templar wrote:
On September 24 2014 08:16 William paradise wrote: wait is there a possibility Jaedong and Scarlett tie for16th spot if Scarlett gets second she get 1000 points takes her to 2950 same as Jaedong.
No, Scarlett already has some points for finishing at least top 8, which are factored in.
Uh? so she has more then 1950? how does that work? just wondering im not all that up to date on how the points work.
No. If she loses in the RO8 of WCS and gets no other points, she has 1950 points, including the 500 from top 8 of WCS America. If she reaches the finals and loses she gets 1000 total points from WCS America, which is 500 more than her current minimum, for 2450 points.
The 1950 listed on the site are the minimum points that Scarlett could possibly have at the end of the year.
ok cool thanks for answering (even though you hate on Scarlett)
No problem, and I suspect you don't care that I hate Scarlett
ok cool thanks for answering (even though you hate on Scarlett)
No problem, and I suspect you don't care that I hate Scarlett
well i didn't say you hated her, but yea i don't really care if you like her or not. was just making a joke obviously not funny. but thanks again for the help really didn't understand the points system.
edit: ok i screwed that all up was just trying to get those two last quotes my bad.
If Innovation wins WCS KR or if Pigbaby wins WCS AM, he'll knock out either Jeadong or Snute depending on their performance at stockholm.
If Pigbaby finishes 2nd place at WCS AM and either Snute or Jaedong gets no points out of stockholm, the one that get's no points will fall out.
If any of HerO, Bunny, Scarlet, ForGG, Golden, and Heart, wins their respective region, that's enough to get over 3000 points and pass both Jaedong and Snute's current standing.
If Huk wins WCS AM, he'll tie JD at 2950
If Yoda wins WCS EU he'll tie Snute at 2925, then his appearance at blizzcon will depend on Snute not making ro16 at stockholm, innovation not winning GSL and beating Snute at a tie breaker.
I was really surprised that the last results in the thread are not post soO-Zest (took me while to find that out, because they did not make sense the other way). Doesn't matte though, one can just readi the right what-if. soO has it now soo easy.
Another thing to note: Snute needs to beat Jeadong in points from DH to keep the chance to have more then one foreigner (courtesy of Scarlett winning WCS).
On September 25 2014 04:43 opisska wrote: I was really surprised that the last results in the thread are not post soO-Zest (took me while to find that out, because they did not make sense the other way). Doesn't matte though, one can just readi the right what-if. soO has it now soo easy.
Another thing to note: Snute needs to beat Jeadong in points from DH to keep the chance to have more then one foreigner (courtesy of Scarlett winning WCS).
The website is updated much more often http://sc2.4ever.tv/ I will be making another post in this thread to preview DreamHack Stockholm probably tomorrow night.
On September 25 2014 04:43 opisska wrote: Another thing to note: Snute needs to beat Jeadong in points from DH to keep the chance to have more then one foreigner (courtesy of Scarlett winning WCS).
On September 25 2014 05:09 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: Is there a chance that Snute, Scarlett and Bunny could all make it?
technically yes lol ~ 0.49 % chance of 3+ foreigners ~ 0.01 % chance of 4+ foreigners ~ 0 % chance of 5+ foreigners
3 foreigners: Scarlett wins WCS AM, Bunny wins WCS EU, Snute does really well at Dreamhack. 4 foreigners: That, and Dayshi also does really well at Dreamhack as well as winning a placement tournament.
On September 25 2014 05:09 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: Is there a chance that Snute, Scarlett and Bunny could all make it?
technically yes lol ~ 0.49 % chance of 3+ foreigners ~ 0.01 % chance of 4+ foreigners ~ 0 % chance of 5+ foreigners
3 foreigners: Scarlett wins WCS AM, Bunny wins WCS EU, Snute does really well at Dreamhack. 4 foreigners: That, and Dayshi also does really well at Dreamhack as well as winning a placement tournament.
keep in mind those stats are from before Dayshi losing today, so he could've still gotten 2nd in WCS EU at that time, now he's around 0% chances though
Starts in INnoVation must win this! INnoVation, Cure in GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 31.77 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.78 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 57.99 %. ~ 45.22 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Cure is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.22 % of the time Cure wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 54.78 % of the time Cure loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances soO has a ~ 42.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation has a ~ 31.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 31.77 % to ~ 99.31 % Cure has a ~ 25.85 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.02 %
DreamHack Stockholm - HaNfy is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.31 % of the time HaNfy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 29.69 % of the time HaNfy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 69.86 % of the time Socke wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 30.14 % of the time Socke loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - JayPower is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.21 % of the time JayPower wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 69.79 % of the time JayPower loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - köttplockarn is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 29.61 % of the time köttplockarn wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 70.39 % of the time köttplockarn loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - TargA is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 91.01 % of the time TargA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 8.99 % of the time TargA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PtitDrogo is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.44 % of the time PtitDrogo wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.56 % of the time PtitDrogo loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaddeLisk is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.76 % of the time MaddeLisk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 59.24 % of the time MaddeLisk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - thejoniz is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 22.79 % of the time thejoniz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 77.21 % of the time thejoniz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - MarineLord is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 79.67 % of the time MarineLord wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 20.33 % of the time MarineLord loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.03 % of the time DeMusliM wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 36.97 % of the time DeMusliM loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MrBadExample is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.17 % of the time MrBadExample wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.83 % of the time MrBadExample loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bubbas is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.14 % of the time Bubbas wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 87.86 % of the time Bubbas loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Zanster is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 91.5 % of the time Zanster wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 8.5 % of the time Zanster loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SolO is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.42 % of the time SolO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 60.58 % of the time SolO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Goldhead is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.73 % of the time Goldhead wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 65.27 % of the time Goldhead loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ghost is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.35 % of the time Ghost wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 65.65 % of the time Ghost loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - SortOf is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.11 % of the time SortOf wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 19.89 % of the time SortOf loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Namshar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.18 % of the time Namshar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 33.82 % of the time Namshar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hantypen is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.24 % of the time Hantypen wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.76 % of the time Hantypen loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - QueenE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 8.47 % of the time QueenE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 91.53 % of the time QueenE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - uThermal is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 88.24 % of the time uThermal wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 11.76 % of the time uThermal loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ignite is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.78 % of the time Ignite wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 47.22 % of the time Ignite loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Crowbar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.8 % of the time Crowbar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 67.2 % of the time Crowbar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zervas is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 26.17 % of the time Zervas wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.83 % of the time Zervas loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Blysk is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.17 % of the time Blysk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 26.83 % of the time Blysk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarNaN is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.31 % of the time StarNaN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 43.69 % of the time StarNaN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jona is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.52 % of the time Jona wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 50.48 % of the time Jona loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Groet is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 20.99 % of the time Groet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 79.01 % of the time Groet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Lilbow is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 93.94 % of the time Lilbow wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 6.06 % of the time Lilbow loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - BreakYa is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.74 % of the time BreakYa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.26 % of the time BreakYa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - rainCzar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.32 % of the time rainCzar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 63.68 % of the time rainCzar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Autumn is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 27.01 % of the time Autumn wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 72.99 % of the time Autumn loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - MorroW is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 82.63 % of the time MorroW wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 17.37 % of the time MorroW loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Skinky is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.6 % of the time Skinky wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 53.4 % of the time Skinky loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - aGaham is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 37.47 % of the time aGaham wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 62.53 % of the time aGaham loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Livibee is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.3 % of the time Livibee wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 66.7 % of the time Livibee loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Ret is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 83.14 % of the time Ret wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 16.86 % of the time Ret loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SpaceDuck is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.48 % of the time SpaceDuck wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 53.52 % of the time SpaceDuck loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MilLoRd is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 37.11 % of the time MilLoRd wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 62.89 % of the time MilLoRd loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Wanji is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.27 % of the time Wanji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 66.73 % of the time Wanji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Kane is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 84.32 % of the time Kane wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 15.68 % of the time Kane loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DieStar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.07 % of the time DieStar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 42.93 % of the time DieStar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Gowerly is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.64 % of the time Gowerly wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 58.36 % of the time Gowerly loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Webby is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 16.96 % of the time Webby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 83.04 % of the time Webby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - PiG is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 85.32 % of the time PiG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 14.68 % of the time PiG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SpaceMarine is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.34 % of the time SpaceMarine wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 58.66 % of the time SpaceMarine loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Mellanmjolk is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.24 % of the time Mellanmjolk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 60.76 % of the time Mellanmjolk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bloop is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.1 % of the time Bloop wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 65.9 % of the time Bloop loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Jaedong is at ~ 59.7 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 78.3 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 64.86 %. ~ 21.7 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 41.05 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.52 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 34.48 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - soO is at ~ 98.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 81.01 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.82 %. ~ 18.99 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 97.1 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 6.76 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.16 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.96 %. ~ 28.84 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 6.25 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 83.3 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 16.7 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.07 % of the time Dayshi wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 28.93 % of the time Dayshi loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - HerO is at ~ 7.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.77 % of the time HerO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 7.79 %. ~ 28.23 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.6 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 68.16 % of the time Welmu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 31.84 % of the time Welmu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Solar is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 85.06 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 14.94 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.04 % of the time ToD wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 46.96 % of the time ToD loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 82.51 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 17.49 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ryung is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.58 % of the time Ryung wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 32.42 % of the time Ryung loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Bunny is at ~ 11.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.92 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 11.79 %. ~ 19.08 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 9.64 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 44.88 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.44 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 53.92 %. ~ 24.56 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 17.1 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Classic is at ~ 99.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 82.43 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.58 %. ~ 17.57 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 98.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.46 % of the time Miniraser wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 46.54 % of the time Miniraser loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - ForGG is at ~ 19.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 81.26 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 20.02 %. ~ 18.74 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 18.5 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 2.11 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 68.46 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.53 %. ~ 31.54 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.19 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Sacsri is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.46 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 19.54 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Leenock is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.11 % of the time Leenock wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 24.89 % of the time Leenock loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 95.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 85.29 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 96.19 %. ~ 14.71 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 88.79 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.25 % of the time Grubby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 39.75 % of the time Grubby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - YoDa is at ~ 9.73 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 82.88 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 11.38 %. ~ 17.12 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.74 %. ------------------------------------------------- - jjakji is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.78 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 19.22 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Life is at ~ 96.69 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 81.22 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 97.47 %. ~ 18.78 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 93.36 %. ------------------------------------------------- - First is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.51 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 24.49 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - MMA is at ~ 87.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.34 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 89.75 %. ~ 19.66 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 76.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 66.71 % of the time TLO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 33.29 % of the time TLO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - TRUE is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 78.91 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 21.09 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 61.56 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 38.44 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Patience is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 79.35 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 20.65 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 73.13 % of the time MC wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 26.87 % of the time MC loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
Winning Chances YoDa has a ~ 7.05 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 18.7 % herO has a ~ 6.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 100 % jjakji has a ~ 5.54 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 5.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Life has a ~ 4.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
HyuN has a ~ 4.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 4.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Sacsri has a ~ 4.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ForGG has a ~ 4.47 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.73 % to ~ 42.37 % Bunny has a ~ 4.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.38 % to ~ 40.64 % Classic has a ~ 3.98 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 3.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % Patience has a ~ 3.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MMA has a ~ 3.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 100 % First has a ~ 3.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Snute has a ~ 2.87 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 100 % Leenock has a ~ 2.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MC has a ~ 2.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 2.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 100 % TRUE has a ~ 2.22 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Lilbow has a ~ 2.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Golden has a ~ 1.65 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.76 % to ~ 7.67 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.64 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HerO has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.17 % to ~ 59.01 % HuK has a ~ 1.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 4.88 % TargA has a ~ 1.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Welmu has a ~ 1.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Ryung has a ~ 1.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MaNa has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TLO has a ~ 0.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % uThermal has a ~ 0.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % PiG has a ~ 0.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz has a ~ 0.5 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Grubby has a ~ 0.45 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MarineLord has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kane has a ~ 0.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Blysk has a ~ 0.28 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Zanster has a ~ 0.23 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % SortOf has a ~ 0.19 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ToD has a ~ 0.18 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MorroW has a ~ 0.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Miniraser has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ret has a ~ 0.13 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 55.12 % if they win, with a ~ 2.87 % chance to win, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 100 % HerO would gain ~ 51.83 % if they win, with a ~ 1.34 % chance to win, going from ~ 7.17 % to ~ 59.01 % Jaedong would gain ~ 40.3 % if they win, with a ~ 2.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 100 % Bunny would gain ~ 29.26 % if they win, with a ~ 4.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 11.38 % to ~ 40.64 % ForGG would gain ~ 22.64 % if they win, with a ~ 4.47 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.73 % to ~ 42.37 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
MMA would gain ~ 12.77 % if they win, with a ~ 3.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 100 % YoDa would gain ~ 8.96 % if they win, with a ~ 7.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 18.7 % herO would gain ~ 4.9 % if they win, with a ~ 6.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 100 % Life would gain ~ 3.31 % if they win, with a ~ 4.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 100 % HuK would gain ~ 2.77 % if they win, with a ~ 1.17 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 4.88 % soO would gain ~ 1.51 % if they win, with a ~ 3.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 0.91 % if they win, with a ~ 1.65 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.76 % to ~ 7.67 % Classic would gain ~ 0.52 % if they win, with a ~ 3.98 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Solar would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 4.61 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % TRUE would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Welmu would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 1.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % TLO would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 0.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % jjakji would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 5.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % PiG would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.5 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Grubby would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MarineLord would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Kane would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Blysk would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Zanster would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.23 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % SortOf would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.19 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ToD would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.18 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MorroW would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Miniraser would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ret would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.13 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % uThermal would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MaNa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Dayshi would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Lilbow would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MC would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Leenock would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.52 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % First would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Patience would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 4.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
---------------- Jaedong ~ 21.69 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 41.05 %
~ 6.93 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 15.35 %
~ 1.82 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Pigbaby gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 7.92 %
~ 3.69 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 14.89 %
~ 1.18 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.03 %
~ 0.68 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 0.75 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Cure loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 and Bomber wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 %
~ 0.53 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 %
~ 0.42 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 %
~ 0.58 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Pigbaby gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 %
~ 0.41 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 %
~ 0.35 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 %
~ 0.28 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 %
~ 0.34 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Pigbaby gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 59.69 % to ~ 0.04 %
---------------- Snute ~ 24.56 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 17.1 %
~ 4.18 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.23 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Bunny wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 1.89 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.53 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.06 %
~ 1.45 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.06 %
~ 4.06 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and ForGG loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.06 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.23 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.23 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Bunny wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.23 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Bunny wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 and INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.23 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Cure loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 and Bunny wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.23 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 and INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 4.23 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Cure loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro4 and San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 5.41 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
~ 5.41 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Bunny wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 0.05 %
---------------- ForGG ~ 18.73 % of the time ForGG loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 18.51 %
~ 40.5 % of the time ForGG loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 0.01 %
---------------- Yoda ~ 18.72 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 51.96 %
~ 81.28 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 0.01 %
---------------- Liquid Hero ~ 1.35 % of the time HerO gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 59.03 %
~ 5.6 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.17 % to ~ 100 %
~ 9.36 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.17 % to ~ 9.13 %
~ 0.13 % of the time HerO gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm and HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.49 % of the time HerO gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm and HerO wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 99.81 %
~ 0.45 % of the time HerO gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm and Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 68.26 %
~ 0.25 % of the time HerO gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm and Bomber gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 67.53 %
---------------- MMA ~ 31.97 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 78.5 %
~ 17.03 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 78.86 %
~ 11.09 % of the time Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 79.41 %
~ 11.32 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 79.6 %
~ 21.5 % of the time Jaedong gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 81.06 %
~ 20.93 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 81.19 %
~ 14.19 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 94.27 %
~ 24.56 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 92.63 %
~ 21.69 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 92.52 %
~ 19.5 % of the time Polt gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 92.17 %
I should add soO as well Innovation winning GSL is a double whammy since it means soO can't win and also Innovation passes soO, Cure winning isn't as bad for him.
~ 31.97 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 95.78 %
~ 68.03 % of the time INnoVation doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 99.76 %
~ 25.86 % of the time Cure gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 99.37 %
Cure winning the GSL actually improves soO's chances since it means Innovation can't win even though it means that soO only gets 2nd.
~ 11.09 % of the time Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 96.05 %
~ 17.04 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 96.3 %
Grouped events with soO losing in Dreamhack, gaining no points from it, that bring soO's chances down the lowest ---------- double events
~ 6.07 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 91.88 %
~ 2.14 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 92.55 %
~ 3.24 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 92.84 %
---------- triple events
~ 0.69 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 79.94 %
~ 0.7 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 80.21 %
~ 1.04 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 80.56 %
---------- quadruple events
~ 0.12 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 58.18 %
~ 0.06 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 58.79 %
---------- quintuple events
~ 0.05 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and herO gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm and Life gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 50.33 %
~ 0.01 % of the time soO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm and Pigbaby wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change soO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 54.42 %
Looks like it's crunch time for Snute and Jaedong. Although, this tournament is quite stacked. It would probably be viewed as an upset if either wins.
Intuitively, it seems quite likely that the players looking to secure their places (MMA, herO, Life, soO, etc.) will get top 16. MMA is the most at risk, but he is also on a roll.
The #9-16 seedings are probably what will be affected the most by this tournament. Until Stardust (at #8 with 4800), almost all players below can make up a lot of positions.
Changes so far this tournament Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 26.28 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 58.03 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.47 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 20.21 %
Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 13.24 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 46.46 % MMA went down by ~ 3.45 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 83.78 % herO went down by ~ 3.2 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 91.89 % Life went down by ~ 1.52 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 95.17 % soO went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 97.57 % Heart went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 3.71 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.42 % Snute went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 44.24 % Golden went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 6.25 % HuK went down by ~ 0.45 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 1.65 % YoDa went down by ~ 0.4 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 9.33 % HerO went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 6.82 % Classic went down by ~ 0.35 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 99.13 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.14 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 11.22 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 5.21 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 21.64 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.39 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 78.78 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
DreamHack Stockholm - Jaedong is at ~ 46.46 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 68.41 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 55.07 %. ~ 31.59 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 27.79 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.43 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 37.57 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PiG is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.81 % of the time PiG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 46.19 % of the time PiG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - PtitDrogo is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 15.35 % of the time PtitDrogo wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 84.65 % of the time PtitDrogo loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 97.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 83.15 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 98.04 %. ~ 16.85 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 95.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 6.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.65 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.61 %. ~ 36.35 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.61 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.48 % of the time uThermal wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 50.52 % of the time uThermal loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ZhuGeLiang is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 3.72 % of the time ZhuGeLiang wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 96.28 % of the time ZhuGeLiang loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 82.25 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 17.75 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.54 % of the time Dayshi wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 28.46 % of the time Dayshi loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Namshar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 23.67 % of the time Namshar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 76.33 % of the time Namshar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revolver is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 22.54 % of the time Revolver wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 77.46 % of the time Revolver loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - HerO is at ~ 6.82 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.52 % of the time HerO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 7.49 %. ~ 35.48 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.6 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.85 % of the time Welmu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 44.15 % of the time Welmu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ret is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.07 % of the time Ret wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 50.93 % of the time Ret loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DieStar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.56 % of the time DieStar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 69.44 % of the time DieStar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Solar is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 85.87 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 14.13 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Lilbow is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.93 % of the time Lilbow wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 27.07 % of the time Lilbow loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 37.55 % of the time ToD wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 62.45 % of the time ToD loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Hotspur is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 3.65 % of the time Hotspur wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 96.35 % of the time Hotspur loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 77.62 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 22.38 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ryung is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.48 % of the time Ryung wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 41.52 % of the time Ryung loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MarineLord is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.21 % of the time MarineLord wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 50.79 % of the time MarineLord loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jona is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.69 % of the time Jona wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 85.31 % of the time Jona loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Bunny is at ~ 11.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 91.61 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 11.38 %. ~ 8.39 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 9.55 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 44.24 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 89.86 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 48.08 %. ~ 10.14 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaFarazZo is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 9.28 % of the time MaFarazZo wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 90.72 % of the time MaFarazZo loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SolO is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 9.24 % of the time SolO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 90.76 % of the time SolO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Classic is at ~ 99.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 74.44 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.37 %. ~ 25.56 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 98.44 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.82 % of the time Miniraser wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.18 % of the time Miniraser loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MorroW is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.98 % of the time MorroW wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.02 % of the time MorroW loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HaNfy is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.77 % of the time HaNfy wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 63.23 % of the time HaNfy loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - ForGG is at ~ 20.21 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 83.91 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 20.43 %. ~ 16.09 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 19.06 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 1.65 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.87 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.16 %. ~ 36.13 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.45 % of the time Socke wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.55 % of the time Socke loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - aGaham is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 9.77 % of the time aGaham wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 90.23 % of the time aGaham loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Sacsri is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 72.53 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 27.47 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Leenock is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 69.82 % of the time Leenock wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 30.18 % of the time Leenock loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zanster is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 37.19 % of the time Zanster wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 62.81 % of the time Zanster loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ViBE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 20.45 % of the time ViBE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 79.55 % of the time ViBE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 91.89 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 79.72 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 94.19 %. ~ 20.28 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 82.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.94 % of the time Grubby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 52.06 % of the time Grubby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - StarNaN is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.12 % of the time StarNaN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 61.88 % of the time StarNaN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.22 % of the time DeMusliM wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 65.78 % of the time DeMusliM loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - YoDa is at ~ 9.33 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 88.1 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.47 %. ~ 11.9 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - jjakji is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 85.99 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 14.01 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Autumn is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 14.62 % of the time Autumn wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 85.38 % of the time Autumn loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Lillekanin is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.29 % of the time Lillekanin wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 88.71 % of the time Lillekanin loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Life is at ~ 95.17 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 82.66 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 96.22 %. ~ 17.34 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 90.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - First is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 63.54 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 36.46 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Kane is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.98 % of the time Kane wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.02 % of the time Kane loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MilLoRd is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 7.82 % of the time MilLoRd wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 92.18 % of the time MilLoRd loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - MMA is at ~ 83.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 83.29 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 86.56 %. ~ 16.71 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 69.88 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.38 % of the time TLO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 41.62 % of the time TLO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SortOf is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.11 % of the time SortOf wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 48.89 % of the time SortOf loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Reynor is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 7.22 % of the time Reynor wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 92.78 % of the time Reynor loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - TRUE is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 90.46 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 9.54 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.33 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 28.67 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Mekar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 28.04 % of the time Mekar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 71.96 % of the time Mekar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zervas is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 10.16 % of the time Zervas wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 89.84 % of the time Zervas loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Patience is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 84.95 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 15.05 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MC is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 80.87 % of the time MC wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 19.13 % of the time MC loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SpaceMarine is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 23.06 % of the time SpaceMarine wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 76.94 % of the time SpaceMarine loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaddeLisk is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.12 % of the time MaddeLisk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 88.88 % of the time MaddeLisk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
On September 27 2014 02:11 Circumstance wrote: HerO is officially in full hail-mary.
HerO is now out of DreamHack and out of Blizzcon.
not quite 35.51 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.61 %. he still has a chance....
~ 1.99 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HerO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.82 % to ~ 100 %
On September 27 2014 02:23 justdmg wrote: What is the deal with HuK's % actually decreasing slightly when he does better than Ro4?
Is it a sample size thing, even with 50 million tests?
Is it better for him to let through someone that is already a lock, like Hyun, to maybe keep other peoples point totals down?
Is it just a bug?
That screenshot was taken earlier when it was at like 2 million samples, now at 50 million samples it looks like this Player, Currently, 32nd, 16th, 8th, 4th, 2nd, 1st HuK ~ 1.66 % ~ 0.75 % ~ 2.8 % ~ 4.66 % ~ 4.81 % ~ 4.81 % ~ 4.78 %
So 1st place gives him very slightly lower chances than 2nd or 4th. The extra points don't seem to help him much, since he needs to win WCS AM anyways, I think the 8th place just means that he probably won't have to play a tie breaker if he also wins WCS AM ~ 0.17 % of the time HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HuK gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.66 % to ~ 99.99 %
~ 0.37 % of the time HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HuK gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.66 % to ~ 97.27 %
~ 0.8 % of the time HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HuK gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.66 % to ~ 58.47 %
~ 0.05 % of the time HuK gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm and HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.66 % to ~ 100 %
I think 0.03% is within margin of error, especially considering the random events that can happen in the 1% chance placeholder tournament. The event for Huk winning Stockholm has a ~ 1.09 % chance, meaning ~545,000 samples for it, so an 0.03% difference on that means a difference of about 163 samples. 545,000 samples would be enough except the placeholder tournament raises the margin of error a bit since it has so many possibilities.
On September 27 2014 02:11 Circumstance wrote: HerO is officially in full hail-mary.
HerO is now out of DreamHack and out of Blizzcon.
not quite 35.51 % of the time HerO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.61 %. he still has a chance....
~ 1.99 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HerO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro64 This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.82 % to ~ 100 %
Changes so far this tournament Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 25.67 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 57.42 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.8 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 20.54 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.34 %
Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 4.77 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 54.92 % Snute went down by ~ 3.39 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 41.49 % herO went down by ~ 2.97 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 92.13 % MMA went down by ~ 2.76 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 84.47 % Life went down by ~ 2.74 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 93.95 % soO went down by ~ 2.11 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 96.38 % Heart went down by ~ 1.71 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 2.91 % HerO went down by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 5.63 % YoDa went down by ~ 1.48 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 8.25 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.09 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.01 % Classic went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 98.52 % Golden went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 6.02 % HuK went down by ~ 0.49 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 1.62 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 5.03 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 15.85 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 45.06 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.17 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,450 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,475 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
DreamHack Stockholm - Classic is at ~ 98.52 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.45 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 39.55 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 96.27 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 96.38 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.96 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.98 %. ~ 44.04 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 91.81 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Leenock is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.8 % of the time Leenock wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 56.2 % of the time Leenock loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 1.62 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.79 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.16 %. ~ 60.21 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.6 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.31 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 35.69 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 50.55 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 49.45 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - First is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.95 % of the time First wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 50.05 % of the time First loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 35.19 % of the time TLO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 64.81 % of the time TLO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Sacsri is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.58 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 32.42 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ForGG is at ~ 20.54 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 67.01 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 21.15 %. ~ 32.99 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 19.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 6.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.22 % of the time Golden wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 7.35 %. ~ 53.78 % of the time Golden loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.87 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MorroW is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.21 % of the time MorroW wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 80.79 % of the time MorroW loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Jaedong is at ~ 54.92 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.7 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 74.31 %. ~ 41.3 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 27.37 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ryung is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.21 % of the time Ryung wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 47.79 % of the time Ryung loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Welmu is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.05 % of the time Welmu wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 52.95 % of the time Welmu loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Grubby is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.04 % of the time Grubby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.96 % of the time Grubby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 92.13 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.24 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.43 %. ~ 34.76 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 78.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.35 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 41.65 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.24 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 61.76 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ret is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 38.17 % of the time Ret wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 61.83 % of the time Ret loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Life is at ~ 93.95 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 64.19 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.88 %. ~ 35.81 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 83.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MMA is at ~ 84.47 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 62.23 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 96.32 %. ~ 37.77 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 64.97 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.55 % of the time Dayshi wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 58.45 % of the time Dayshi loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 32.04 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 67.96 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - YoDa is at ~ 8.25 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.21 % of the time YoDa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.36 %. ~ 40.79 % of the time YoDa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 11.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.27 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.5 %. ~ 45.73 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.07 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.42 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 52.58 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Lilbow is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 39.1 % of the time Lilbow wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 60.9 % of the time Lilbow loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - jjakji is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 75.45 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 24.55 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 60.35 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 39.65 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 41.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.32 % of the time Snute wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 66.54 %. ~ 44.68 % of the time Snute loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - SpaceMarine is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 8.88 % of the time SpaceMarine wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 91.12 % of the time SpaceMarine loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
On September 27 2014 05:31 Bagration wrote: MMA making the top 16 at DH means that he's basically set for Blizzcon short of some strange turn of events right?
yep that puts him at ~ 92.21 % if he loses in ro16, right now he's at ~ 96.31 % after winning his group and Snute just lost so he's down to ~ 10.48 %!
ok wait incontrol said with snute losing this would be the first Blizzcon without a foreigner, aren't there others out there that can still get in even if JD MMA and Inno win?
On September 27 2014 05:39 William paradise wrote: ok wait incontrol said with snute losing this would be the first Blizzcon without a foreigner, aren't there others out there that can still get in even if JD MMA and Inno win?
yea there's certainly still a possibility of a foreigner at Blizzcon http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player_set&countries=nonkorean (this is not yet updated with Snute's loss yet, will be updated when the round of 16 bracket is set)
Snute actually still has a chance even after losing too ~ 44.67 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 10.48 %
~ 19.01 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and San wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 14.01 %
~ 19.01 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and Bunny loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 and Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 14.01 %
~ 20.21 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and San wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 14.01 %
~ 20.21 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and Bunny loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 14.01 %
On September 27 2014 05:39 William paradise wrote: ok wait incontrol said with snute losing this would be the first Blizzcon without a foreigner, aren't there others out there that can still get in even if JD MMA and Inno win?
snute has to basically pray that none of the pigbaby/bunny/hero/inno/forgg/scar wins their wcs regions
Snute needs San/MC/MMA to win WCS EU soO to win GSL Bomber/HyuN/Polt to win WCS NA He also needs bunny not to make past round of 16 at dreamhack or round of 8 wcs eu. #LivingOnTheEdge
On September 27 2014 05:51 SNSeigifried wrote: Snute needs San/MC/MMA to win WCS EU soO to win GSL Bomber/HyuN/Polt to win WCS NA He also needs bunny not to make past round of 16 at dreamhack or round of 8 wcs eu. #LivingOnTheEdge
But if Bunny makes it in at least we still have a foreigner.
On September 27 2014 05:51 SNSeigifried wrote: Snute needs San/MC/MMA to win WCS EU soO to win GSL Bomber/HyuN/Polt to win WCS NA He also needs bunny not to make past round of 16 at dreamhack or round of 8 wcs eu. #LivingOnTheEdge
But if Bunny makes it in at least we still have a foreigner.
Bunny possibilities are actually either
1) Win WCS EU
2) Get 2nd at WCS EU and TOP4 at DH Stockholm
3) Get Semi Final at WCS EU and Win DH Stockholm
So actually not that likely. Best shot seems option 2 for me.
just a quick update, will do a better one when I get home...
Biggest winners and losers so far this tournament (and Innovation vs Cure) Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 20.81 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 52.56 % Jaedong went up by ~ 12.74 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 72.44 % MMA went up by ~ 7.21 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 94.44 % herO went up by ~ 2.99 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 98.09 % Life went up by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 99.39 % soO went up by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 21.08 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 12.18 % Classic went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.34 %
soO is now ~ 100 %!
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 33.86 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 11.02 % YoDa went down by ~ 7.98 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 1.75 % Heart went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 1.92 % Golden went down by ~ 2.49 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 4.26 % HerO went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 5.64 % HuK went down by ~ 1.24 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 0.87 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.08 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.02 %
DreamHack Stockholm - jjakji is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.6 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 47.4 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.4 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 52.6 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.72 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 40.28 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ryung is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.28 % of the time Ryung wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 59.72 % of the time Ryung loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - ForGG is at ~ 21.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.7 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.45 %. ~ 42.3 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 19.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.3 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 57.7 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - MMA is at ~ 94.44 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.79 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 42.21 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 86.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.21 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 57.79 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 98.09 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.09 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 43.91 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 95.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Life is at ~ 99.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.91 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 56.09 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 98.91 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Sacsri is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.77 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 45.23 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.23 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.77 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Classic is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.53 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.47 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 72.43 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.47 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 85.83 %. ~ 55.53 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 61.7 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Bunny is at ~ 12.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.55 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 14.1 %. ~ 47.45 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.1 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.45 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 52.55 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances herO has a ~ 9.64 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.09 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 9.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.06 % to ~ 36.99 % jjakji has a ~ 8.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri has a ~ 7.54 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % soO has a ~ 7.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bunny has a ~ 7.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.2 % to ~ 30.41 % Life has a ~ 6.94 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.39 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 6.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.44 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 6.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Classic has a ~ 6.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience has a ~ 6.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Jaedong has a ~ 3.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 72.43 % to ~ 100 % TRUE has a ~ 3.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung has a ~ 2.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MaNa has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Winning Gains Jaedong would gain ~ 27.57 % if they win, with a ~ 3.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 72.43 % to ~ 100 % Bunny would gain ~ 18.21 % if they win, with a ~ 7.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.2 % to ~ 30.41 % ForGG would gain ~ 15.93 % if they win, with a ~ 9.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 21.06 % to ~ 36.99 % MMA would gain ~ 5.56 % if they win, with a ~ 6.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 94.44 % to ~ 100 % herO would gain ~ 1.91 % if they win, with a ~ 9.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.09 % to ~ 100 % Life would gain ~ 0.61 % if they win, with a ~ 6.94 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.39 % to ~ 100 % jjakji would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % soO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Classic would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TRUE would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MaNa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Or Scarlett winning WCS AM right? Bunny prolly has a better chance, since he can lose WCS EU final. edit: oh wait aligulac gives better chance for Scarlett :o
Sorry about the delay guys, I was just making an improvement to remove duplicate events such as Player A wins their next match (against Player B), and then also showing Player B loses their next match (against Player A). For example we can look at Huk.
Before, using the event filters "single positive notor", Huk had events like this + Show Spoiler [examples] +
~ 40.33 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 %
~ 59.67 % of the time HuK loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 40.33 % of the time HyuN loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 %
~ 59.67 % of the time HyuN wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 43.57 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 %
~ 43.57 % of the time INnoVation loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 %
~ 56.43 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 56.43 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
But now it's fixed to favor the current player like Huk winning and Huk losing, so it removes the events for Hyun winning and Hyun losing against Huk, and then after that it favors the winning event so it has soO winning and Innovation winning but it ditches the events for them losing. This works just by finding events that have the same exact number of occurances in the initial block (the first 500,000 samples) and also result in the exact same Blizzcon chances for that player, and then it picks the one with the highest score.
This should make it much easier to read especially with the grouped events. I hope you like the change! Will be writing a bit to preview Dreamhack Stockholm Day 2 soon.
On September 27 2014 09:01 Die4Ever wrote: Sorry about the delay guys, I was just making an improvement to remove duplicate events such as Player A wins their next match (against Player B), and then also showing Player B loses their next match (against Player A). For example we can look at Huk.
Before, using the event filters "single positive notor", Huk had events like this + Show Spoiler [examples] +
~ 40.33 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 %
~ 59.67 % of the time HuK loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 40.33 % of the time HyuN loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 %
~ 59.67 % of the time HyuN wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 43.57 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 %
~ 43.57 % of the time INnoVation loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 %
~ 56.43 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 56.43 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
But now it's fixed to favor the current player like Huk winning and Huk losing, so it removes the events for Hyun winning and Hyun losing against Huk, and then after that it favors the winning event so it has soO winning and Innovation winning but it ditches the events for them losing. This works just by finding events that have the same exact number of occurances in the initial block (the first 500,000 samples) and also result in the exact same Blizzcon chances for that player, and then it picks the one with the highest score.
This should make it much easier to read especially with the grouped events. I hope you like the change! Will be writing a bit to preview Dreamhack Stockholm Day 2 soon.
Can i just say your awesome. Really great how much time you put into this and how nice and easy it is to understand the standings.
Player A wins their next match (against Player B), and then also showing Player B loses their next match (against Player A).
OMG, that was so annoying. Thanks for fixing that >.>
There was also "HuK wins WCS America" and "HuK wins their next match in RO8, Heart finishes 4th place, Bomber finishes second place" type stuff. Glad to see this is fixed.
Player A wins their next match (against Player B), and then also showing Player B loses their next match (against Player A).
OMG, that was so annoying. Thanks for fixing that >.>
There was also "HuK wins WCS America" and "HuK wins their next match in RO8, Heart finishes 4th place, Bomber finishes second place" type stuff. Glad to see this is fixed.
Yea I agree it was super annoying, I just randomly had the idea for the easy way to fix it lol. Idk why I never thought of it before, never did put much thought into removing those.
Although "HuK wins their next match in RO8, Heart finishes 4th place, Bomber finishes second place" is very different from just Huk winning WCS America, and I believe it's good that it's listed and tracked separately.
On September 27 2014 09:01 Die4Ever wrote: Sorry about the delay guys, I was just making an improvement to remove duplicate events such as Player A wins their next match (against Player B), and then also showing Player B loses their next match (against Player A). For example we can look at Huk.
Before, using the event filters "single positive notor", Huk had events like this + Show Spoiler [examples] +
~ 40.33 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 %
~ 59.67 % of the time HuK loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 40.33 % of the time HyuN loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 %
~ 59.67 % of the time HyuN wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 43.57 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 %
~ 43.57 % of the time INnoVation loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 %
~ 56.43 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
~ 56.43 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 %
But now it's fixed to favor the current player like Huk winning and Huk losing, so it removes the events for Hyun winning and Hyun losing against Huk, and then after that it favors the winning event so it has soO winning and Innovation winning but it ditches the events for them losing. This works just by finding events that have the same exact number of occurances in the initial block (the first 500,000 samples) and also result in the exact same Blizzcon chances for that player, and then it picks the one with the highest score.
This should make it much easier to read especially with the grouped events. I hope you like the change! Will be writing a bit to preview Dreamhack Stockholm Day 2 soon.
Can i just say your awesome. Really great how much time you put into this and how nice and easy it is to understand the standings.
The top 11 spots are secured with Hyun, Zest, MC, Polt, San, Taeja, Bomber, Stardust, jjakji, Classic, and soO at ~ 100 %. The next 3 spots are over 90% with Life, herO, and MMA. We have essentially 2 spots open with 12 players (over 0.01% chances) fighting (or praying) for them - Jaedong, Innovation, ForGG, Scarlett, Bunny, Snute, Pigbaby, Liquid Hero, Golden, Heart, Yoda, and Huk.
~ 43.37 % of the time Life wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 100 %
~ 56.63 % of the time Life loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 98.88 %
~ 6.95 % of the time Life gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 100 %
~ 93.05 % of the time Life doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 99.32 %
~ 0.07 % of the time Life loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm and MMA wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.12 % of the time Life loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 22.23 %
~ 0.04 % of the time Life loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 22.52 %
~ 0.09 % of the time Life loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 40.18 %
~ 0.22 % of the time Life loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 41.84 %
~ 0.06 % of the time Life loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm and Bomber wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.36 % to ~ 39.92 %
~ 43.37 % of the time herO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 95.71 %
~ 56.63 % of the time herO wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 100 %
~ 10.14 % of the time herO gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 100 %
~ 89.86 % of the time herO doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 97.93 %
~ 24.6 % of the time herO gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.05 % of the time herO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm and MMA wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.02 % of the time herO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 14.78 %
~ 14.68 % of the time herO gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 100 %
~ 44.74 % of the time Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 96.69 %
~ 0.09 % of the time herO loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Solar gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm and Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 15.94 %
~ 58.15 % of the time MMA wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.64 % to ~ 100 %
~ 41.85 % of the time MMA loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.64 % to ~ 87.18 %
~ 24.62 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 and MMA loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.64 % to ~ 78.22 %
~ 19.23 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.64 % to ~ 83.48 %
~ 55.26 % of the time Classic wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.64 % to ~ 98.22 %
~ 44.74 % of the time Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.24 % to ~ 86.42 %
~ 55.26 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.24 % to ~ 62.56 %
~ 43.54 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.24 % to ~ 91.91 %
~ 11.23 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.24 % to ~ 100 %
~ 56.46 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.24 % to ~ 58.83 %
~ 17.24 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.24 % to ~ 45.02 %
~ 19.23 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.24 % to ~ 50.35 %
~ 31.2 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 and INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.24 % to ~ 42.95 %
~ 43.54 % of the time INnoVation loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.79 % to ~ 0 %
~ 56.46 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.79 % to ~ 89.96 %
~ 36.84 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 and Polt wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.79 % to ~ 91.75 %
~ 36.34 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 and Bomber wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.79 % to ~ 91.59 %
~ 31.2 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 and Classic wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro16 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 50.79 % to ~ 95.51 %
~ 7.89 % of the time Heart gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 25.47 %
~ 12.39 % of the time Heart gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.47 % of the time Heart gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 100 %
~ 0.38 % of the time Heart gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 95.78 %
~ 16.23 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.64 % to ~ 10.11 %
~ 15.18 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.64 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.65 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Bomber gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 and Heart wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.64 % to ~ 41.84 %
~ 1.33 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Bomber gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.64 % to ~ 41.74 %
~ 1.42 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Polt gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.64 % to ~ 41.71 %
~ 5.15 % of the time HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.01 % to ~ 19.46 %
~ 11.99 % of the time HuK gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.01 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.08 % of the time HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Bomber gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.01 % to ~ 95.92 %
~ 0.04 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 and MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Bomber gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier and Heart gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.01 % to ~ 95.91 %
~ 0.1 % of the time HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Bomber gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.01 % to ~ 94.99 %
~ 0.06 % of the time HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Pigbaby gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.01 % to ~ 94.79 %
Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 19.05 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 50.8 % Jaedong went up by ~ 13.53 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 73.23 % MMA went up by ~ 7.4 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 94.63 % herO went up by ~ 3.04 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 98.14 % Life went up by ~ 2.67 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 99.37 % soO went up by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % Bunny went up by ~ 1.36 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 12.72 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 21.04 % Classic went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.2 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.23 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 33.21 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 11.67 % YoDa went down by ~ 8.09 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 1.64 % Heart went down by ~ 2.61 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 2.01 % HerO went down by ~ 2.33 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 4.85 % Golden went down by ~ 2.24 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 4.51 % HuK went down by ~ 1.1 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 1.01 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.18 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.3 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.32 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 46.7 % of the time 3,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 46.7 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.48 % of the time 3,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,325 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3125 and 3100 currently have exactly the same chances since no one can get 3125 points now)
DreamHack Stockholm - jjakji is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.17 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 47.83 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.83 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 52.17 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.81 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 40.19 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ryung is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.19 % of the time Ryung wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 59.81 % of the time Ryung loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - ForGG is at ~ 21.04 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 57.16 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.39 %. ~ 42.84 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 19.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.84 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 57.16 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - MMA is at ~ 94.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 58.16 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 41.84 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 87.16 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.84 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 58.16 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 98.14 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.66 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 43.34 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 95.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Life is at ~ 99.37 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.34 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 56.66 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 98.88 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Sacsri is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 54.75 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 45.25 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.25 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 54.75 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Classic is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.27 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.73 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 73.23 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.73 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 86.41 %. ~ 55.27 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 62.56 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Bunny is at ~ 12.72 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 53.22 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 14.63 %. ~ 46.78 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.55 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 46.78 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 53.22 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances herO has a ~ 10.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 8.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.04 % to ~ 36.98 % jjakji has a ~ 8.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 7.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri has a ~ 7.38 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Bunny has a ~ 7.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.72 % to ~ 31.18 % Life has a ~ 6.95 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.37 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 6.82 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 6.51 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience has a ~ 6.33 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Classic has a ~ 6.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 5.91 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Jaedong has a ~ 3.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 73.23 % to ~ 100 % TRUE has a ~ 3.54 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung has a ~ 2.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MaNa has a ~ 2.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
Winning Gains Jaedong would gain ~ 26.77 % if they win, with a ~ 3.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 73.23 % to ~ 100 % Bunny would gain ~ 18.45 % if they win, with a ~ 7.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.72 % to ~ 31.18 % ForGG would gain ~ 15.95 % if they win, with a ~ 8.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 21.04 % to ~ 36.98 % MMA would gain ~ 5.37 % if they win, with a ~ 6.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 100 % herO would gain ~ 1.86 % if they win, with a ~ 10.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.14 % to ~ 100 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
Life would gain ~ 0.63 % if they win, with a ~ 6.95 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.37 % to ~ 100 % jjakji would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.04 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.82 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.38 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.33 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Classic would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 5.91 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TRUE would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.31 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MaNa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
On September 27 2014 12:47 Jazzman88 wrote: Dat soO helping hand that Snute needs so badly. soO can kill two players' hype trains with one shot if he loses (counting his own of course).
Innovation needs to win GSL, Pigbaby needs to win WCS AM, ForGG needs to place very high in both WCS EU and Dreamhack, I think if soO wins GSL Snute will be safe.
Biggest Winners Jaedong went up by ~ 24.73 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 84.42 % MMA went up by ~ 12.77 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation went up by ~ 7.25 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 39.01 % herO went up by ~ 4.9 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 100 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.78 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 21.51 % soO went up by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % Classic went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.33 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.37 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 32.72 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 12.16 % YoDa went down by ~ 8.04 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 1.7 % Golden went down by ~ 4.71 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 2.04 % Heart went down by ~ 2.45 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 2.17 % HerO went down by ~ 2.37 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 4.81 % HuK went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 0.91 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.19 % Life went down by ~ 0.86 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 95.83 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.48 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 10.89 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.85 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.6 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 21.81 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 44.1 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.25 % of the time 3,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,325 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon + Show Spoiler [Full] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.85 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 14.76 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.49 % of the time 2,975 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.6 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.6 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.77 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.77 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 21.81 % of the time 3,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 21.81 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 21.81 % of the time 3,150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 21.81 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 44.1 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 70.94 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 95.83 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.25 % of the time 3,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.25 % of the time 3,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,325 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.66 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 47.34 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Sacsri is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 47.34 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 52.66 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm - Jaedong is at ~ 84.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.55 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 48.45 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 67.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.45 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 51.55 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
DreamHack Stockholm soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.06 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.94 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ForGG is at ~ 21.51 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.94 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 26.16 %. ~ 55.06 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 17.71 %.
Winning Chances soO has a ~ 26.59 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 20.28 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.51 % to ~ 32.6 % herO has a ~ 18.05 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri has a ~ 13.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Solar has a ~ 11.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Jaedong has a ~ 10.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.42 % to ~ 100 %
Winning Gains Jaedong would gain ~ 15.58 % if they win, with a ~ 10.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 84.42 % to ~ 100 % ForGG would gain ~ 11.09 % if they win, with a ~ 20.28 % chance to win, going from ~ 21.51 % to ~ 32.6 % soO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 26.59 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % herO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 18.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 13.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Solar would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 11.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
~ 48.45 % of the time Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.01 % to ~ 50.87 %
~ 51.55 % of the time Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.01 % to ~ 27.87 %
~ 25.38 % of the time Solar gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.42 % to ~ 67.95 %
~ 29.33 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.01 % to ~ 27.95 %
~ 25.38 % of the time Solar gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.01 % to ~ 50.91 %
~ 11.72 % of the time Solar gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.42 % to ~ 66.24 %
~ 48.45 % of the time Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 100 %
~ 51.55 % of the time Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 91.91 %
~ 44.94 % of the time ForGG wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro4 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 9.91 %
~ 29.33 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 91.9 %
~ 55.06 % of the time soO wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro4 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.15 % to ~ 13.98 %
~ 25.38 % of the time Solar gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 100 %
~ 11.72 % of the time Solar gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 100 %
~ 11.92 % of the time Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 91.94 %
But if both ForGG and PigBaby/HerO get 1st place in WCS, JaeDong will be out even though he gets 1st place in Dreamhack (max 3700), so I don't think it's 100% chance for JD
On September 27 2014 23:08 kyomezzo wrote: But if both ForGG and PigBaby/HerO get 1st place in WCS, JaeDong will be out even though he gets 1st place in Dreamhack (max 3700), so I don't think it's 100% chance for JD
If all that happens then Jaedong is in, other players fall out instead.
~ 0.55 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.82 % to ~ 0 %
It would knock out Life and whoever is below Life (Innovation if he wins GSL).
On September 27 2014 23:08 kyomezzo wrote: But if both ForGG and PigBaby/HerO get 1st place in WCS, JaeDong will be out even though he gets 1st place in Dreamhack (max 3700), so I don't think it's 100% chance for JD
If all that happens then Jaedong is in, other players fall out instead.
~ 0.55 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.82 % to ~ 0 %
It would knock out Life and whoever is below Life (Innovation if he wins GSL).
Now with JD finalize his WCS points at 3200, the last two spots falls back to the performance of Pigbaby, ForGG, HerO, Innovation, Bunny, Scarlett, Golden and Heart. If Pigbaby reaches the finals of WCS AM then Snute is out, if two of the above guys wins their WCS regions, both JD and Snute are out.
Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 19.07 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 50.82 % MMA went up by ~ 12.77 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong went up by ~ 8.13 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 67.83 % herO went up by ~ 4.9 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 100 % Life went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 100 % ForGG went up by ~ 2.31 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 22.05 % soO went up by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % Classic went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.41 %
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 32.69 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 12.19 % YoDa went down by ~ 8.03 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 1.7 % Golden went down by ~ 4.7 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 2.05 % Heart went down by ~ 2.43 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 2.19 % HerO went down by ~ 2.41 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 4.77 % HuK went down by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 0.92 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.17 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 10.9 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.89 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.64 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 21.88 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 67.83 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.92 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Starts in soO, ForGG in DreamHack Stockholm soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.08 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 44.92 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ForGG is at ~ 22.05 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.92 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 27.31 %. ~ 55.08 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 17.76 %.
Starts in herO, Solar DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.62 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 48.38 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 48.38 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 51.62 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.
Winning Chances herO has a ~ 31.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 25.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 23.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ForGG has a ~ 19.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 22.05 % to ~ 35.79 %
Winning Gains ForGG would gain ~ 13.75 % if they win, with a ~ 19.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 22.05 % to ~ 35.79 % herO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 31.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 25.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 23.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %
On September 28 2014 00:51 William paradise wrote: so Bunny and Scarlett can make it if they both win WCS?
Yes, if they win their respective WCS regions they will knock out JD and Snute, if Innovation wins GSL then he will also be knocked out at #17. + Show Spoiler +
But you and I both know it is very unlikely for both to happen
On September 28 2014 02:02 asongdotnet wrote: wow if innovation and someone from outside the top16 wins their respective WCS regions, JD will be knocked out by 25 points!
at least 75pts . Life is 50pts ahead but earned more pts in actual wcs.
Now that Solar won this DH, and Snute being the only one beating him in a BO3, its sad that Snute probably not going to Blizzcon. With a different draw maybe he might have come far .
On September 28 2014 05:50 SNSeigifried wrote: So now StarDust is guarantee #8 seed.And will most likely be playing soO unless MMA wins wcs eu
nice catch StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon.
~ 64.65 % chance to see StarDust vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.42 % chance to see StarDust vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.9 % chance to see StarDust vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.72 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.85 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.47 % chance to see StarDust vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals.
Biggest changes this tournament (and Innovation vs Cure...) Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 16.52 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 48.27 % MMA went up by ~ 12.77 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong went up by ~ 10.01 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 69.7 % herO went up by ~ 4.9 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 100 % Life went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 100 % soO went up by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % Classic went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.45 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 19.94 %
Look at all those biggest winners hitting ~ 100 %, glorious.
Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 30.36 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 14.52 % YoDa went down by ~ 7.58 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 2.15 % Golden went down by ~ 4.4 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 2.35 % HerO went down by ~ 2.37 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 4.81 % Heart went down by ~ 2.24 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 2.38 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 10.03 % HuK went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 1.12 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.28 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.67 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 18.99 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 23.73 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 69.7 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.52 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
The most likely first round matches at the WCS Finals ~ 64.63 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 39.99 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.65 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.22 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 33.43 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 31.78 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 31.07 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 26.63 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.25 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.24 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.58 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.08 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.54 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.6 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.13 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.11 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.71 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.43 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.69 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.22 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.03 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.09 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.75 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.37 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.3 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [Event More] +
~ 9.9 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.64 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.54 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.3 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.66 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.25 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.16 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.15 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.81 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.76 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.71 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.63 % chance to see TaeJa vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.23 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.45 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.26 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.03 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.85 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.81 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.72 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.62 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.32 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.04 % chance to see Polt vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.72 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.44 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.41 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.36 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.9 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.84 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.39 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.36 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.31 % chance to see MC vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.31 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.81 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.73 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.61 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.48 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.38 % chance to see HyuN vs Heart in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.24 % chance to see San vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.17 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.16 % chance to see HyuN vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.09 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.02 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.02 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.96 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.84 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.77 % chance to see Polt vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.65 % chance to see Polt vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.4 % chance to see San vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.4 % chance to see Bomber vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.32 % chance to see Bomber vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.24 % chance to see Heart vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.13 % chance to see MC vs Heart in the first round of the WCS Finals.
So looking at foreginers - Bunny needs to win WCS EU which would move him from 2200 to 3700. Being runner-up would land him at 2700 - not enough. HuK needs to win WCS AM which would land him at 16th and seriously needs no other player to surpass Snute - like INnoVation needs to lose to soO. Scarlett also needs to win WCS AM but she should be safe from other players' jumps - kind of like Bunny. I'm not sure which one of them has easier path, not to mention that no foreigner was in WCS final since Stephano. Snute stands still so he needs for the above mentioned players to not qualify, for INnoVation not to win GSL, for WCS EU the winner can't be Golden, Bunny, ForGG (Yoda winning WCS EU would tie Snute) and for WCS AM it can't be Heart, HerO, Pigbaby (he can't even get to final), HuK, Scarlett.
So in essence Snute's chances are the highest as for Scarlett, HuK and Bunny - they need to make history. For Snute - soO need to break the curse and in the other regions favorites should just win (like Bomber/Polt and MMA/San in EU - ideally if all Season 2 runners-up will become Season 3 champions, Snute goes to Blizzcon).
There are a total of 15 matches between us and Blizzcon. Boy, there's a thought, eh? Fifteen matches between us and the ultimate results. A mere fifteen matches until the dust settles and the bracket is ultimately set. And then only 15 more matches before we can crown a new world champion. Damn crazy.
On September 28 2014 09:34 coverpunch wrote: Since there's only 12 players with a chance, can someone list the scenarios in which they get that #15 or #16 spot and go to Blizzcon?
Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four
On September 28 2014 09:34 coverpunch wrote: Since there's only 12 players with a chance, can someone list the scenarios in which they get that #15 or #16 spot and go to Blizzcon?
Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four
On September 28 2014 19:03 Koerage wrote: should Yoda and Snute tie, does the player with more points from WCS seasons get the slot?
Last time they did a BO3/BO5 between the two contenders to see who will advance
The way the rule works is if there's a tie for placing WITHIN the top 16 (i.e., both players make it to Blizzcon in any case but you need a tiebreaker to determine their seed), the player with the most points from WCS events wins. But if there's a tie for getting INTO Blizzcon then you have what happened between NaNiwa and Revival last year and they'll play a tiebreaker series.
On September 28 2014 19:03 Koerage wrote: should Yoda and Snute tie, does the player with more points from WCS seasons get the slot?
Last time they did a BO3/BO5 between the two contenders to see who will advance
The way the rule works is if there's a tie for placing WITHIN the top 16 (i.e., both players make it to Blizzcon in any case but you need a tiebreaker to determine their seed), the player with the most points from WCS events wins. But if there's a tie for getting INTO Blizzcon then you have what happened between NaNiwa and Revival last year and they'll play a tiebreaker series.
Snute's highest placement is 16th right? so that would mean a play-in thx for refreshing my memory anyway, didnt have the time to look it up
On September 28 2014 09:34 coverpunch wrote: Since there's only 12 players with a chance, can someone list the scenarios in which they get that #15 or #16 spot and go to Blizzcon?
Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four
Pigbaby getting 2nd place is only enough to get into top 16 if he's only the only player below top 16 to win their respective WCS regions. For example if Innovation wins WCS KR, then he pushes Snute out and JD is #16 at 3200 and 3000 points from Pigbaby will not be enough to get top 16.
Could anyone explain how Solar can have more than 0% chance to go to Blizzcon?
Started to think about this after DreamHack Soo vs Solar game 2 when Incontrol said if Solar wins, he has said "What a big deal it would be for him. A major tournament win here. Getting closer to Blizzcon. Kind of announcing to the World: Hey! I am Solar...."
On September 29 2014 22:17 Madars wrote: Could anyone explain how Solar can have more than 0% chance to go to Blizzcon?
Started to think about this after DreamHack Soo vs Solar game 2 when Incontrol said if Solar wins, he has said "What a big deal it would be for him. A major tournament win here. Getting closer to Blizzcon. Kind of announcing to the World: Hey! I am Solar...."
Solar does not have any chance go get into Blizzcon, he is ranked #18 and has no tournaments left to play in. Maybe Incontrol just meant that it's an achievement for Solar to "get close" to Blizzcon.
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote: golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs
although this is very unlikely to happen.
It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote: golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs
although this is very unlikely to happen.
It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.
I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though..
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote: golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs
although this is very unlikely to happen.
It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.
I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though..
Yes, but there were multiple placeholder tournaments to compensate for this.
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote: golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs
although this is very unlikely to happen.
It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.
I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though..
Yes, but there were multiple placeholder tournaments to compensate for this.
I think the aligulac ratings fluctuating as time goes on also plays a factor
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote: golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs
although this is very unlikely to happen.
It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.
I can't find a simulation that gives Golden a 100% for that, but I did find one that gave ~98.5% from 60 days ago
~ 2.78 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 98.45 %
for comparison it's now
~ 7.27 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 31.18 %
So if you assume that each match is 50/50 that means that about 6 or 7 relevant matches went against Golden's favor.
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote: golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs
although this is very unlikely to happen.
It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.
I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though..
Yes, but there were multiple placeholder tournaments to compensate for this.
I think the aligulac ratings fluctuating as time goes on also plays a factor
Sure, but Golden's aligulac rating has been pretty stable since then.
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote: golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs
although this is very unlikely to happen.
It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.
I can't find a simulation that gives Golden a 100% for that, but I did find one that gave ~98.5% from 60 days ago
~ 2.78 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 98.45 %
for comparison it's now
~ 7.27 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 31.18 %
So if you assume that each match is 50/50 that means that about 6 or 7 relevant matches went against Golden's favor.
I guess it was just a really high percentage. Interesting that the 1% seems to be happening
On September 30 2014 01:48 Die4Ever wrote: Dreamhack Stockholm and the GSL semifinals seems to have specifically hurt Golden's chances a lot since then.
Also Golden really underperformed at Dreamhack Moscow, where he lost to Happy and Adonminus in the group stages and got no WCS points.
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 15.56 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (before DH Stockholm, 3,000 was at ~ 44.7 %) ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.79 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.83 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (before DH Stockholm, 3,575 was the lowest with ~ 100 %) + Show Spoiler [All Cutoffs] +
~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 15.56 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.6 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.6 % of the time 2,975 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.94 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.94 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.79 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.83 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Foreigner Hope Scarlett ~ 15.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.43 % chance overall. Snute ~ 13.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.55 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 8.44 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.22 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.04 % chance overall.
~ 40.46 % chances of 1+ foreigners at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chances of 2 foreigners at Blizzcon.
Likely Seeds StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 64.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 63.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 53.1 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 51.83 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Life has a ~ 50.99 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 49.11 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 46.58 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.35 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.34 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 42.01 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 40.84 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 38.37 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 37.75 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 35.09 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 34.16 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 34.14 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 33.71 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 28.79 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 28.68 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 28.03 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 27.19 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 25.08 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 25.08 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 23.45 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 23.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.89 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 22.21 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 21.51 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 20.47 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon.
Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 63.16 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 40.43 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.12 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.11 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 33.2 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 31.6 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 30.54 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.96 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.22 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.04 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.58 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.61 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.17 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.17 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.49 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.19 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.66 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.28 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.06 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.23 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.11 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.41 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.38 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.67 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.44 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.31 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.56 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.28 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.21 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.21 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.83 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.7 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.36 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.77 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.72 % chance to see TaeJa vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.44 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.25 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.24 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.14 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.32 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.76 % chance to see Polt vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.36 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.26 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.03 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.03 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.74 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.39 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.39 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.16 % chance to see MC vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.15 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.76 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.69 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.62 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.61 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.29 % chance to see HyuN vs Heart in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.15 % chance to see San vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.13 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.11 % chance to see HyuN vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.04 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.04 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.02 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals.
GSL Finals preview! Starts in INnoVation must win this! INnoVation, soO in GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 51.84 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 91.83 %. ~ 43.55 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 43.55 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 56.45 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.
INnoVation has a ~ 28.79 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 23.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon.
~ 24.22 % chance to see INnoVation vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see INnoVation vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.77 % chance to see INnoVation vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.44 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.25 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see INnoVation vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals.
soO has a ~ 63.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 33.71 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 3.13 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon.
~ 63.16 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.04 % chance to see soO vs TaeJa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.23 % chance to see soO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.52 % chance to see soO vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals.
Other predicted effects -If soO wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 91.84 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 31.11 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 5.19 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 5.09 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 4.62 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 8.66 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 2.39 %
-If INnoVation wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.01 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 %
-Single events that hurt INnoVation ~ 4.81 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.1 %
~ 17.43 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.17 %
~ 6.07 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.2 %
~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.45 %
~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.46 % + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 12.7 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 47.4 %
~ 15.47 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 47.51 %
~ 14.73 % of the time MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.5 %
~ 11.58 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.54 %
~ 27.24 % of the time HyuN gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.99 %
~ 23.19 % of the time HuK gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.13 %
~ 34.16 % of the time Polt loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 against HerO This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.53 %
~ 56.34 % of the time Scarlett wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.87 %
~ 35.63 % of the time Pigbaby wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.88 %
~ 59.09 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 against ForGG This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.92 %
~ 55.01 % of the time San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 against Bunny This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.04 %
~ 17.6 % of the time Bomber gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.67 %
~ 8.8 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.71 %
~ 34.32 % of the time Bunny gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.93 %
~ 15.41 % of the time Polt gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.98 %
~ 39.38 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 51.05 %
~ 20.98 % of the time MC gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 51.34 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
An INnoVation win would do a lot to clean things up.
Anyway, one thing I've noticed both this year and last is that the expected point cut-offs for making it to Blizzcon always seem to move up, even without the addition of new events. Have I been paying attention to them selectively or does the system have a bias toward lower cut-offs?
On October 01 2014 01:18 frogrubdown wrote: An INnoVation win would do a lot to clean things up.
Anyway, one thing I've noticed both this year and last is that the expected point cut-offs for making it to Blizzcon always seem to move up, even without the addition of new events. Have I been paying attention to them selectively or does the system have a bias toward lower cut-offs?
I think it's mostly because it has to give weak/unknown players a chance. For next year I want to tweak the match predictions so that every match is closer to 50/50 (lol sOs...), but I maybe want to curve it so that MUCH weaker players (like 1000 aligulac rating vs an 1800) are even more 1-sided. It will be a tough curve to balance I think, and it has the issue of a new unknown or underrated korean player suddenly winning GSL.
On October 01 2014 01:18 frogrubdown wrote: An INnoVation win would do a lot to clean things up.
Anyway, one thing I've noticed both this year and last is that the expected point cut-offs for making it to Blizzcon always seem to move up, even without the addition of new events. Have I been paying attention to them selectively or does the system have a bias toward lower cut-offs?
I think it's mostly because it has to give weak/unknown players a chance. For next year I want to tweak the match predictions so that every match is closer to 50/50 (lol sOs...), but I maybe want to curve it so that MUCH weaker players (like 1000 aligulac rating vs an 1800) are even more 1-sided. It will be a tough curve to balance I think, and it has the issue of a new unknown or underrated korean player suddenly winning GSL.
Sounds good. Thanks for all your work keeping this the best thread on TL.
On October 01 2014 01:18 frogrubdown wrote: An INnoVation win would do a lot to clean things up.
Anyway, one thing I've noticed both this year and last is that the expected point cut-offs for making it to Blizzcon always seem to move up, even without the addition of new events. Have I been paying attention to them selectively or does the system have a bias toward lower cut-offs?
I think it's mostly because it has to give weak/unknown players a chance. For next year I want to tweak the match predictions so that every match is closer to 50/50 (lol sOs...), but I maybe want to curve it so that MUCH weaker players (like 1000 aligulac rating vs an 1800) are even more 1-sided. It will be a tough curve to balance I think, and it has the issue of a new unknown or underrated korean player suddenly winning GSL.
Sounds good. Thanks for all your work keeping this the best thread on TL.
-If soO wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 91.84 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 31.11 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 5.19 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 5.09 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 4.62 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 8.66 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 2.39 %
-If INnoVation wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.01 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 %
Bunny, ForGG, Golden, and YoDa can only make it to Blizzcon if they win 1st place. San, MC, and MMA are already confirmed.
Bunny would gain ~ 89.78 % if they win, with a ~ 10.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 100 % ForGG would gain ~ 81.37 % if they win, with a ~ 18.63 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 28.91 % if they win, with a ~ 7.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 31.18 % YoDa would gain ~ 10.17 % if they win, with a ~ 16.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 12.18 %
Golden and Yoda need Innovation to lose the GSL finals, and they also depend on many other events... + Show Spoiler [Golden Events] +
~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 28.23 % of the time Happy gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 56.45 % of the time soO doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 17.43 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 16.51 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 15.47 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 14.73 % of the time MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 14.07 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 12.74 % of the time MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 12.7 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 11.57 % of the time MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 9.01 % of the time Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 6.07 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
~ 4.81 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 %
On September 18 2014 12:33 Die4Ever wrote: --------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Quarterfinals Set! INnoVation would gain ~ 69.18 % if they win [the GSL], with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win [the GSL], going from ~ 30.82 % to ~ 99.99 %
On September 18 2014 12:33 Die4Ever wrote: --------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Quarterfinals Set! INnoVation would gain ~ 69.18 % if they win [the GSL], with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win [the GSL], going from ~ 30.82 % to ~ 99.99 %
the day after that, the DH Stockholm player list was set, which changed him to this INnoVation would gain ~ 68.91 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.62 % to ~ 99.54 %
Innovation not going to DH Stockholm wasn't actually the main problem though, it was mostly because a lot of players who actually needed WCS points went, players who could hurt Innovation's chances, and they did. This was kind of a perfect storm of players to hurt Innovation, this combination of players had a very low chance of occurring in terms of a random picking, of course it wasn't a random occurrence because they actually wanted WCS points. Not sure how to fix that issue of random player selection without biasing the stats.
and then after Red Bull Washington INnoVation has a ~ 31.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 31.77 % to ~ 99.31 %
Not so bad
and now after DH Stockholm ~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 91.83 %.
So yea DH Stockholm hurt him a bit, with Life, MMA, herO, soO, and Classic all securing their spots.
yeah big chunk of the players already in the top 16 were at stockholm to secure their spot. the only exception was sOs. I guess he was just given redbull as a shot to secure his spot, but he blew it.
Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 40.24 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 92.07 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %
Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 17.24 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.55 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.12 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.08 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 9.58 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.06 %
Snute, Golden, Heart, Yoda, and Huk are eliminated!
Remaining players
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
On October 04 2014 20:14 Koerage wrote: Huk Yoda Snute Heart and Golden are now out - and Innovation is in unless pigbaby wins WCS America (at least, i think so)
some 0% scenarios for Innovation
~ 3.21 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.64 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.15 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.9 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 2.04 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Pigbaby loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.99 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.95 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Polt wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.69 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HuK loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.52 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HyuN loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.26 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Polt loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.21 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and San wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.17 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Pigbaby wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 1.09 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.95 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Polt gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.88 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.86 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.76 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.69 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
~ 0.57 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 %
Now its actually funnily straightforward: top 14 is fixed. 15 and 16 is Inno and JD or winner of WCS AM if it is Hero/Pigbaby/Scarlett or winner of WCS EU if it is ForGG/Bunny. Nothing else has any effect.
HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.79 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 40.23 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 92.07 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %
Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 17.2 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.59 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 9.57 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.05 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.58 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 92.07 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Foreigner Hope Scarlett ~ 15.42 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.06 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 7.93 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 9.57 % chance overall.
~ 24.99 % chance for 1+ foreigner at Blizzcon ~ 1.63 % chance for 2 foreigners at Blizzcon
Likely Seeds StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 64.35 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 53.39 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 51.88 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Jaedong has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 50.6 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 49.26 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.51 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.47 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 43.88 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 41.14 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 40.49 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 40.49 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 38.48 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 38.28 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 35.05 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 34.12 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 34.11 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 29.07 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 27.67 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 27.1 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 25.28 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 25.28 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 23.44 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.76 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 21.7 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 20.94 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 20.07 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 19.32 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 18.21 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 17.78 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 17.71 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 15.65 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 15.63 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 14.3 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 13.25 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.91 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.21 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 12.18 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 10.3 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 9.64 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 9.44 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 8.72 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 8.53 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 8.39 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 7.93 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 7.61 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 7.11 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 6.68 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.05 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 5.99 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 5.99 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 5.81 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.51 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.51 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 5.5 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 5.5 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 5.36 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.27 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 2.92 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 2.83 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 2.35 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 2.16 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.97 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 1.25 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.15 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.04 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 0.76 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.72 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.49 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon.
Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 43.88 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 43.4 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 41.06 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.69 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 35.36 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 32.96 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 31.3 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.77 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.41 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.4 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.47 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.7 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.24 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.05 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.2 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.19 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.47 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.47 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.71 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.7 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.02 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.47 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.05 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.05 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.53 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.39 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.08 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.77 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.62 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.42 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.26 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.53 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.43 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.42 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.49 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.27 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.62 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.31 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.15 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.36 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.09 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.65 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.28 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.83 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.35 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.33 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.53 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.19 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.15 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.06 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see San vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.78 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.76 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.72 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals.
WCS EU Winning Gains Bunny would gain ~ 90.43 % if they win, with a ~ 9.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.57 % to ~ 100 % ForGG would gain ~ 81.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.86 % to ~ 100 %
WCS AM Winning Gains HerO would gain ~ 95.2 % if they win, with a ~ 4.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.8 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.93 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.07 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 82.95 % if they win, with a ~ 17.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.05 % to ~ 100 %
No one benefits from a 2nd place or less anymore. If Bunny/ForGG wins WCS EU AND HerO/Pigbaby/Scarlett wins WCS AM, then Innovation is out. If any of those above 5 players wins then Jaedong is out.
Also Terran finally caught up with Protoss in the summed percentages. Terran ~ 38.78 % Protoss ~ 38.18 % Zerg ~ 23.04 %
And SKT T1 is now the highest team on the teams summed percentages, even beating teamless. SKT T1 ~ 18.25 % teamless ~ 12.88 % mYinsanity ~ 12.5 % Acer ~ 7.32 % Liquid ~ 7.15 %
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
Well Jaedong falls out if Hero/Pigbaby/Scarlett win AM OR if ForGG/Bunny win EU. Innovation falls out if Hero/Pigbaby/Scarlett wins AM AND ForGG/Bunny win EU.
Innovation should be quite safe then without doing the exact math myself. EDIT: but i guess someone was a bit faster than me over me.
I think even Jaedong can feel quite safe. The ones who can take his place by winning their respective WCS aren't likely at all to do so. I even think they're quite likely to all be eliminated in ro8 with the brackets, with Bunny and ForGG maybe having more of a chance.
I would see it the other way around. Bunny and ForGG are pretty weak in TvP so i would think its pretty unlikely that they win against San or endboss MC.
At least Pigbaby did win it once and i feel that Scarlett or Hero would at least have a chance under some lucky circumstances to make it through. Its not like they have to face someone they havent beaten at some point in their career in official matches.
On October 04 2014 20:47 Die4Ever wrote: ForGG went up by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %
Step by step.
Actually I'd love Die4Ever to explain this one: why does INnoVation winning make ForGG's chances of qualification go up at all? Maybe there's something I'm missing but that doesn't make sense to me.
On October 04 2014 20:47 Die4Ever wrote: ForGG went up by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %
Step by step.
Actually I'd love Die4Ever to explain this one: why does INnoVation winning make ForGG's chances of qualification go up at all? Maybe there's something I'm missing but that doesn't make sense to me.
I think it's the same, but the simulations gave a slightly different number the second time around?
On October 04 2014 20:47 Die4Ever wrote: ForGG went up by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %
Step by step.
Actually I'd love Die4Ever to explain this one: why does INnoVation winning make ForGG's chances of qualification go up at all? Maybe there's something I'm missing but that doesn't make sense to me.
That small change on ForGG's chances was just from Aligulac rating changes over the past 3/4 days.
i'm surprised scarlett's chances is higher than pigbaby. they both need to win WCS AM if they want to beat jaedong's ranking. but I guess it's just because scarlett is rated higher on aligulac.
On October 05 2014 03:15 movac wrote: i'm surprised scarlett's chances is higher than pigbaby. they both need to win WCS AM if they want to beat jaedong's ranking. but I guess it's just because scarlett is rated higher on aligulac.
Ya, aligulac is pretty deceiving. Pigbaby has an actual shot at winning, Scarlett will be out next round for sure so she's a complete write off. Bunny has a okay chance though, I hope he does it.
On October 05 2014 03:15 movac wrote: i'm surprised scarlett's chances is higher than pigbaby. they both need to win WCS AM if they want to beat jaedong's ranking. but I guess it's just because scarlett is rated higher on aligulac.
Ya, aligulac is pretty deceiving. Pigbaby has an actual shot at winning, Scarlett will be out next round for sure so she's a complete write off. Bunny has a okay chance though, I hope he does it.
On October 05 2014 03:15 movac wrote: i'm surprised scarlett's chances is higher than pigbaby. they both need to win WCS AM if they want to beat jaedong's ranking. but I guess it's just because scarlett is rated higher on aligulac.
Ya, aligulac is pretty deceiving. Pigbaby has an actual shot at winning, Scarlett will be out next round for sure so she's a complete write off. Bunny has a okay chance though, I hope he does it.
On October 05 2014 03:15 movac wrote: i'm surprised scarlett's chances is higher than pigbaby. they both need to win WCS AM if they want to beat jaedong's ranking. but I guess it's just because scarlett is rated higher on aligulac.
Ya, aligulac is pretty deceiving. Pigbaby has an actual shot at winning, Scarlett will be out next round for sure so she's a complete write off. Bunny has a okay chance though, I hope he does it.
uh huh
Welp, RIP foreigners chance at Blizzcon
its all on scarlett now shame bunny didnt win against San
inno to blizzcon distribution for regions is now 5 na 5 eu 6 kr and mma jumps to seed #10 and will face stardust or bomber at blizzcon if bomber he gets rematch from last year 1st match of the year :D!!!
So now we need HerO Scarlett Pigbaby to lose for JD to be at blizzcon. Also means he will play Hyun first, which should be good for JD even though Hyun is 2-1 up in series.
No JD can play HyuN Bomber Polt or San and from what i see its prob gonna be bomber or polt since you need 1 of the 2 to make the finals so jd isn't out
On October 05 2014 06:15 SNSeigifried wrote: No JD can play HyuN Bomber Polt or San and from what i see its prob gonna be bomber or polt since you need 1 of the 2 to make the finals so jd isn't out
~ 30.98 % chance to see Jaedong vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.15 % chance to see Jaedong vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.87 % chance to see Jaedong vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.05 % chance to see Jaedong vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals.
HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.81 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 48.16 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.27 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 72.05 %
Biggest Losers ForGG went down by ~ 18.63 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 0 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 10.22 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.06 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.36 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.08 %
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 72.05 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
Foreigner Hope Scarlett ~ 17.08 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.08 % chance overall. ~ 0 % chances for 2+ foreigners to qualify for Blizzcon!
Likely Seeds StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 72.05 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
TaeJa has a ~ 64.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 51.94 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 51.04 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 50.48 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 50.04 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 49.96 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 49.11 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 45.52 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.6 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.53 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 44.01 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 39.59 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 38.85 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 38.62 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 32.73 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 31.73 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 27.95 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 27.95 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 27.95 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 27.94 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 23.27 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 20.13 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 19.57 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 17.42 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 17.08 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 16.95 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.7 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 15.33 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 14.97 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 11.87 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 11.25 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 11.22 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 11.08 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 10.34 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 10.33 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 10.24 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 8.82 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 7.68 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.32 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.51 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.44 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 5.43 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 5.42 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 5.36 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 4.51 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 4.01 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 2.44 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 2.37 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 1.56 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon.
Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 58.21 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 50.76 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 49.11 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 44.01 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.57 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 34.29 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 32.9 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 31.01 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.11 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.1 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 27.48 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.01 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.51 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.37 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.13 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.87 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.42 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.16 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.24 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.6 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.34 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.33 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.32 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.24 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.2 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.85 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.82 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.71 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.87 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.04 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.43 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.9 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.65 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.32 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.51 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.25 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.74 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.17 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.07 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.85 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.74 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.37 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.56 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.48 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.44 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.96 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
WCS AM Winning Gains HerO would gain ~ 95.19 % if they win, with a ~ 4.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.81 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.94 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.06 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 82.94 % if they win, with a ~ 17.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.06 % to ~ 100 %
These 3 players must win and will not make it with a 2nd place or lower. Any of these 3 players winning would knock Jaedong out. Innovation is secured.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
Jaedong's odds are pretty good, at this point. Polt/Bomber/HyuN are all still in the Ro8, and respectively probably the three favourites to take S3 champion.
On October 05 2014 06:25 OdinnTV wrote: Jaedong's odds are pretty good, at this point. Polt/Bomber/HyuN are all still in the Ro8, and respectively probably the three favourites to take S3 champion.
As much as Jaedong's year has been pretty bad and he probably doesn't "deserve" to be at BlizzCon, a fourth Zerg wouldn't be the worst thing to happen.
On October 05 2014 06:32 Boucot wrote: As much as Jaedong's year has been pretty bad and he probably doesn't "deserve" to be at BlizzCon, a fourth Zerg wouldn't be the worst thing to happen.
On October 05 2014 06:32 Boucot wrote: As much as Jaedong's year has been pretty bad and he probably doesn't "deserve" to be at BlizzCon, a fourth Zerg wouldn't be the worst thing to happen.
I agree. A 6-6-4 distribution would be extremely good given how bad the year began. So let's hope Pigbaby and HerO can't win WCS AM ^^
Pigbaby needs to win WCS pls I don't want to see Zest vs Inno on the first round! They need to meet in the finals (is that even possible bracket-like?)
On October 05 2014 06:47 Silvana wrote: Pigbaby needs to win WCS pls I don't want to see Zest vs Inno on the first round! They need to meet in the finals (is that even possible bracket-like?)
I don't think so, if we're assuming that it's 1 v 16, 2 v 15 ... because then Innovation would have to be in the top 8, and there aren't enough WCS points for that to actually happen.
On October 05 2014 06:47 Silvana wrote: Pigbaby needs to win WCS pls I don't want to see Zest vs Inno on the first round! They need to meet in the finals (is that even possible bracket-like?)
I'd rather see Scarlett win WCS AM. But to do that she'll need to beat heart whom she admits that she's not favoured against. I would be a great story to have a foreigner come through at the last moment. Let's hope her old ZvT skills comes back to give her a chance against Heart, and like you said it would prevent Zest from matching up against Innovation in the ro16
On October 05 2014 06:47 Silvana wrote: Pigbaby needs to win WCS pls I don't want to see Zest vs Inno on the first round! They need to meet in the finals (is that even possible bracket-like?)
I don't think so, if we're assuming that it's 1 v 16, 2 v 15 ... because then Innovation would have to be in the top 8, and there aren't enough WCS points for that to actually happen.
If Pigbaby does win, it moves INno into 16th and hopefully Zest stays at second. Then they will be on opposite sides of the bracket for sure, making it a possibility.
On October 05 2014 06:47 Silvana wrote: Pigbaby needs to win WCS pls I don't want to see Zest vs Inno on the first round! They need to meet in the finals (is that even possible bracket-like?)
I'd rather see Scarlett win WCS AM. But to do that she'll need to beat heart whom she admits that she's not favoured against. I would be a great story to have a foreigner come through at the last moment. Let's hope her old ZvT skills comes back to give her a chance against Heart.
Sadly, she'd then have to beat her way through the rest of the bracket. Just beating Heart doesn't make you a champion.
On October 05 2014 06:47 Silvana wrote: Pigbaby needs to win WCS pls I don't want to see Zest vs Inno on the first round! They need to meet in the finals (is that even possible bracket-like?)
I'd rather see Scarlett win WCS AM. But to do that she'll need to beat heart whom she admits that she's not favoured against. I would be a great story to have a foreigner come through at the last moment. Let's hope her old ZvT skills comes back to give her a chance against Heart.
Sadly, she'd then have to beat her way through the rest of the bracket. Just beating Heart doesn't make you a champion.
For testimony, ask Bomber.
well if she brushes up her ZvT, and then can beat both Heart and Hyun, and then on the other side of the bracket it's either Bomber or Polt that comes up, it's possible since she's beaten the both of them in the past.
On October 05 2014 06:47 Silvana wrote: Pigbaby needs to win WCS pls I don't want to see Zest vs Inno on the first round! They need to meet in the finals (is that even possible bracket-like?)
I don't think so, if we're assuming that it's 1 v 16, 2 v 15 ... because then Innovation would have to be in the top 8, and there aren't enough WCS points for that to actually happen.
If Pigbaby does win, it moves INno into 16th and hopefully Zest stays at second. Then they will be on opposite sides of the bracket for sure, making it a possibility.
Innovation's possible first round matches
~ 50.76 % chance to see INnoVation vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.16 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.34 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.42 % chance to see INnoVation vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.32 % chance to see INnoVation vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
On October 05 2014 06:47 Silvana wrote: Pigbaby needs to win WCS pls I don't want to see Zest vs Inno on the first round! They need to meet in the finals (is that even possible bracket-like?)
I don't think so, if we're assuming that it's 1 v 16, 2 v 15 ... because then Innovation would have to be in the top 8, and there aren't enough WCS points for that to actually happen.
If Pigbaby does win, it moves INno into 16th and hopefully Zest stays at second. Then they will be on opposite sides of the bracket for sure, making it a possibility.
if polt or bomber wins Zest falls to 3rd; probably means a semifinals Zest-Inno is possible. Not sure if both can overtake Zest as i didnt check brackets and stuff, but assuming they can Zest goes down to 4th which should setup for a finals Zest-Inno (assuming here that semi's is 1vs4 2vs3) edit: Zest has ~52% chance to get the nr3 seed and 33% for 2nd, the remainder is 4th. Inno can only get 15th or 16th so unless Zest is 2nd AND inno is 15th (which means JD got 16th) they shall not meet untill semi's/final. Probably can work out when Zest isn't the 2nd seed but i'm tired so i'd probably make mistakes
On October 05 2014 08:11 Torrefy wrote: It's kind of interesting to look at the list of players from last year's blizzcon who either did or didn't qualify again this year.
Qualified: MC Polt Taeja Bomber MMA INnoVation
Might Qualify: Jaedong HerO
Didn't Qualify: Mvp aLive Maru Naniwa duckdeok Dear Soulkey sOs
Lots of the same Terrans are back, while Protoss and Zerg are rotating a lot more. Also, the KR heavy hitters (Maru, Dear, Soulkey, sOs) who all have a legit chance of winning got screwed by WCS. The only returning KR player is Inno, and that's by the skin of his teeth (4-2 in the last possible final of the year). MC, Polt, Taeja, Bomber, and MMA are all NA/EU WCS farmers.
Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career aLive -- fell flat this year Maru -- one good run in GSL, two not-so-great ones Naniwa -- retired duckdeok -- retired Dear -- no excuse, just bad year Soulkey -- is on break/"retired?" sOs -- not too familiar with him
It makes sense that these guys didn't make it back. Would've taken a miracle for any of them to win it this year, given their current forms.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career aLive -- fell flat this year Maru -- one good run in GSL, two not-so-great ones Naniwa -- retired duckdeok -- retired Dear -- no excuse, just bad year Soulkey -- is on break/"retired?" sOs -- not too familiar with him
It makes sense that these guys didn't make it back. Would've taken a miracle for any of them to win it this year, given their current forms.
"They didn't make it back because they didn't win enough games to earn the required WCS points."
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career aLive -- fell flat this year Maru -- one good run in GSL, two not-so-great ones Naniwa -- retired duckdeok -- retired Dear -- no excuse, just bad year Soulkey -- is on break/"retired?" sOs -- not too familiar with him
It makes sense that these guys didn't make it back. Would've taken a miracle for any of them to win it this year, given their current forms.
"They didn't make it back because they didn't win enough games to earn the required WCS points."
That's kind of a given, don't you think?
It is a given. But I feel like some of these guys just... collapsed in 2014.
On October 05 2014 08:59 Xoronius wrote: Well, sOs isn't too far away, he is on rank 18 and only 350 points short of qualification.
Wouldn't Bomber technically count as a "KR heavy hitter" returning, since he made it from WCS Korea last year?
Depends on the point of the categorization. If its just to see which established, KR-proven players are still doing well, yes. If (as I was thinking when I excluded him) its to demonstrate just how cutthroat KR is in practice, then no, since his triumph this year is outside of KR.
I should have been clearer with what I was getting at.
On October 05 2014 08:11 Torrefy wrote: It's kind of interesting to look at the list of players from last year's blizzcon who either did or didn't qualify again this year.
Qualified: MC Polt Taeja Bomber MMA INnoVation
Might Qualify: Jaedong HerO
Didn't Qualify: Mvp aLive Maru Naniwa duckdeok Dear Soulkey sOs
Lots of the same Terrans are back, while Protoss and Zerg are rotating a lot more. Also, the KR heavy hitters (Maru, Dear, Soulkey, sOs) who all have a legit chance of winning got screwed by WCS. The only returning KR player is Inno, and that's by the skin of his teeth (4-2 in the last possible final of the year). MC, Polt, Taeja, Bomber, and MMA are all NA/EU WCS farmers.
Dear didn't do well at all this WCS and that has nothing to do with the changes made this year. He didn't make Ro8 in any of the GSLs so the lack of season finals wouldn't have screwed him, and the only notable results this year was getting second at ASUS, which would not have been enough anyway.
Soulkey's performance was also pretty bad this year. Again, I don't see how it has to do with WCS. I mean he made Ro8 once, which may have led to him doing well in the season final if it had existed, but he would have to win that season final in order to qualify and that's a pretty slim chance.
sOs is in a similar situation with Soulkey, but he's much closer due to him winning the IEM championship. Personally I think he could've made Blizzcon but he really screwed up during the end because he only needed 375 points to guarantee a Blizzcon spot and he had quite a few chances: GSL Season 3 semi, IEM Toronto semi, Red Bull semi, and KeSPA Cup 1 game away from that spot (or a lower placement combination of those).
On the other hand, Maru, Solar, Rain, ForGG, Golden, Welmu, Vortix, Heart, and Alicia got pretty screwed by the new WCS system because they all made Ro8 or above at least twice and could have had the chance to prove themselves in the season finals and earn enough points for Blizzcon, but I guess we would only regret that Maru and Rain didn't make it.
Pretty amazing that Jaedong may very well make it in given how bad a year he's had. I'm kind of shocked he managed to scrape so many WCS points together--looking at the breakdown it's from that one win he had at Lone Star Clash and four top-4 finishes at IEMs/Dreamhacks. He kind of managed to amass points the way MC used to before his recent resurgence: by playing in every single tournament and doing at least pretty good in most of them.
The only players I'm sad didn't make it are sOs and Maru. sOs has so much personality in his play and Maru is definitely the best Terran in the world--too bad he had to play most of the year with Terran weakest race (no coincidence that all the Terrans in Blizzcon either play mostly outside of Korea or got in on the basis of their S3 post-Terran buff performance. Also he should have attended at least a FEW foreign tournaments... sOs's PvP really let him down at the end of the year, losing after being up 2-0 on Zest in KeSPA Cup, getting killed by Trap twice at Red Bull, etc.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career
I don't think it's "arguable" at all--this is definitely the worst year of Mvp's career. He did better in the few months of 2010 than this year. Honestly, you can never count out a resurgence but with IM going away and him forced to play in GSL again next year I'm basically thinking of him as retired.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Dear -- no excuse, just bad year
Not much doubt what happened here: his "join a foreign team" expedition was an even bigger failure than Innovation's was. They were in the top 5 best players in the world in 2013 and went straight downhill this year (obviously Inno did make that great comeback right at the end). Given that (and the relatively little success others like YoDa and First have had), I'm a little surprised at the recent rush of KeSPA players wanting to join foreign teams. Not everyone can be MC or Bomber or TaeJa.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career
I don't think it's "arguable" at all--this is definitely the worst year of Mvp's career. He did better in the few months of 2010 than this year. Honestly, you can never count out a resurgence but with IM going away and him forced to play in GSL again next year I'm basically thinking of him as retired.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Dear -- no excuse, just bad year
Not much doubt what happened here: his "join a foreign team" expedition was an even bigger failure than Innovation's was. They were in the top 5 best players in the world in 2013 and went straight downhill this year (obviously Inno did make that great comeback right at the end). Given that (and the relatively little success others like YoDa and First have had), I'm a little surprised at the recent rush of KeSPA players wanting to join foreign teams. Not everyone can be MC or Bomber or TaeJa.
Yeah... a solid chunk of SKT just decided to go on that expedition as well. Especially Rain, who I thought had amazing potential as an absolute monster in Korea. I'm scared for SKT next season.
I think that only a few players really had strong success after they left Korea. If you look at Dear, he's a guy who was incredible in 2013 and just dropped off completely. He joined Samsung KHAN, a 5th-place SPL team and the only original KeSPA team that wasn't in the playoffs. Not to sound like I dislike KHAN, (far from it) but they aren't the sort of team that an ex-Korean player would be excited to play in, especially one with as much starpower as Dear.
On October 05 2014 06:25 OdinnTV wrote: Jaedong's odds are pretty good, at this point. Polt/Bomber/HyuN are all still in the Ro8, and respectively probably the three favourites to take S3 champion.
On October 05 2014 06:25 OdinnTV wrote: Jaedong's odds are pretty good, at this point. Polt/Bomber/HyuN are all still in the Ro8, and respectively probably the three favourites to take S3 champion.
I wanna see Polt win. :D
traitor !
I wouldn't worry about it, I'm sure there are still plenty of people that want you to win.
On October 05 2014 06:25 OdinnTV wrote: Jaedong's odds are pretty good, at this point. Polt/Bomber/HyuN are all still in the Ro8, and respectively probably the three favourites to take S3 champion.
I wanna see Polt win. :D
traitor !
I'm amazed that you bothered posting a reply at all.
On October 05 2014 06:25 OdinnTV wrote: Jaedong's odds are pretty good, at this point. Polt/Bomber/HyuN are all still in the Ro8, and respectively probably the three favourites to take S3 champion.
I wanna see Polt win. :D
traitor !
I wouldn't worry about it, I'm sure there are still plenty of people that want you to win.
Well she is the foreign hope now. That is gonna be a lot of disappointed people come next round.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career
I don't think it's "arguable" at all--this is definitely the worst year of Mvp's career. He did better in the few months of 2010 than this year. Honestly, you can never count out a resurgence but with IM going away and him forced to play in GSL again next year I'm basically thinking of him as retired.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Dear -- no excuse, just bad year
Not much doubt what happened here: his "join a foreign team" expedition was an even bigger failure than Innovation's was. They were in the top 5 best players in the world in 2013 and went straight downhill this year (obviously Inno did make that great comeback right at the end). Given that (and the relatively little success others like YoDa and First have had), I'm a little surprised at the recent rush of KeSPA players wanting to join foreign teams. Not everyone can be MC or Bomber or TaeJa.
Yeah... a solid chunk of SKT just decided to go on that expedition as well. Especially Rain, who I thought had amazing potential as an absolute monster in Korea. I'm scared for SKT next season.
I think that only a few players really had strong success after they left Korea. If you look at Dear, he's a guy who was incredible in 2013 and just dropped off completely. He joined Samsung KHAN, a 5th-place SPL team and the only original KeSPA team that wasn't in the playoffs. Not to sound like I dislike KHAN, (far from it) but they aren't the sort of team that an ex-Korean player would be excited to play in, especially one with as much starpower as Dear.
Errr... Samsung is one of the most tenured teams alongside SKT, KT, and CJ, simply because it is backed by a stable conglomerate (electronics, telecoms, and industral). It's actually a desirable team for anyone concerned about their career as a pro gamer.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career
I don't think it's "arguable" at all--this is definitely the worst year of Mvp's career. He did better in the few months of 2010 than this year. Honestly, you can never count out a resurgence but with IM going away and him forced to play in GSL again next year I'm basically thinking of him as retired.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Dear -- no excuse, just bad year
Not much doubt what happened here: his "join a foreign team" expedition was an even bigger failure than Innovation's was. They were in the top 5 best players in the world in 2013 and went straight downhill this year (obviously Inno did make that great comeback right at the end). Given that (and the relatively little success others like YoDa and First have had), I'm a little surprised at the recent rush of KeSPA players wanting to join foreign teams. Not everyone can be MC or Bomber or TaeJa.
Yeah... a solid chunk of SKT just decided to go on that expedition as well. Especially Rain, who I thought had amazing potential as an absolute monster in Korea. I'm scared for SKT next season.
I think that only a few players really had strong success after they left Korea. If you look at Dear, he's a guy who was incredible in 2013 and just dropped off completely. He joined Samsung KHAN, a 5th-place SPL team and the only original KeSPA team that wasn't in the playoffs. Not to sound like I dislike KHAN, (far from it) but they aren't the sort of team that an ex-Korean player would be excited to play in, especially one with as much starpower as Dear.
Errr... Samsung is one of the most tenured teams alongside SKT, KT, and CJ, simply because it is backed by a stable conglomerate (electronics, telecoms, and industral). It's actually a desirable team for anyone concerned about their career as a pro gamer.
Wouldn't their historically lackluster performance in SPL put a bit of a damper, or do you think that it's not a factor given the stability? Because I would agree that Samsung has always been a stable team and isn't worrying about sponsors disappearing, unlike some foreign teams.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career
I don't think it's "arguable" at all--this is definitely the worst year of Mvp's career. He did better in the few months of 2010 than this year. Honestly, you can never count out a resurgence but with IM going away and him forced to play in GSL again next year I'm basically thinking of him as retired.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Dear -- no excuse, just bad year
Not much doubt what happened here: his "join a foreign team" expedition was an even bigger failure than Innovation's was. They were in the top 5 best players in the world in 2013 and went straight downhill this year (obviously Inno did make that great comeback right at the end). Given that (and the relatively little success others like YoDa and First have had), I'm a little surprised at the recent rush of KeSPA players wanting to join foreign teams. Not everyone can be MC or Bomber or TaeJa.
Yeah... a solid chunk of SKT just decided to go on that expedition as well. Especially Rain, who I thought had amazing potential as an absolute monster in Korea. I'm scared for SKT next season.
I think that only a few players really had strong success after they left Korea. If you look at Dear, he's a guy who was incredible in 2013 and just dropped off completely. He joined Samsung KHAN, a 5th-place SPL team and the only original KeSPA team that wasn't in the playoffs. Not to sound like I dislike KHAN, (far from it) but they aren't the sort of team that an ex-Korean player would be excited to play in, especially one with as much starpower as Dear.
Errr... Samsung is one of the most tenured teams alongside SKT, KT, and CJ, simply because it is backed by a stable conglomerate (electronics, telecoms, and industral). It's actually a desirable team for anyone concerned about their career as a pro gamer.
Wouldn't their historically lackluster performance in SPL put a bit of a damper, or do you think that it's not a factor given the stability? Because I would agree that Samsung has always been a stable team and isn't worrying about sponsors disappearing, unlike some foreign teams.
From a career perspective, longevity is way more important, think about why Stork denied free transfer twice.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Didn't Qualify: Mvp -- arguably worst year in career
I don't think it's "arguable" at all--this is definitely the worst year of Mvp's career. He did better in the few months of 2010 than this year. Honestly, you can never count out a resurgence but with IM going away and him forced to play in GSL again next year I'm basically thinking of him as retired.
On October 05 2014 08:26 IntoTheheart wrote: Dear -- no excuse, just bad year
Not much doubt what happened here: his "join a foreign team" expedition was an even bigger failure than Innovation's was. They were in the top 5 best players in the world in 2013 and went straight downhill this year (obviously Inno did make that great comeback right at the end). Given that (and the relatively little success others like YoDa and First have had), I'm a little surprised at the recent rush of KeSPA players wanting to join foreign teams. Not everyone can be MC or Bomber or TaeJa.
Yeah... a solid chunk of SKT just decided to go on that expedition as well. Especially Rain, who I thought had amazing potential as an absolute monster in Korea. I'm scared for SKT next season.
I think that only a few players really had strong success after they left Korea. If you look at Dear, he's a guy who was incredible in 2013 and just dropped off completely. He joined Samsung KHAN, a 5th-place SPL team and the only original KeSPA team that wasn't in the playoffs. Not to sound like I dislike KHAN, (far from it) but they aren't the sort of team that an ex-Korean player would be excited to play in, especially one with as much starpower as Dear.
Errr... Samsung is one of the most tenured teams alongside SKT, KT, and CJ, simply because it is backed by a stable conglomerate (electronics, telecoms, and industral). It's actually a desirable team for anyone concerned about their career as a pro gamer.
Wouldn't their historically lackluster performance in SPL put a bit of a damper, or do you think that it's not a factor given the stability? Because I would agree that Samsung has always been a stable team and isn't worrying about sponsors disappearing, unlike some foreign teams.
Also from what I've heard, the Samsung team house is known for having the best food of all the team houses.
With MMA's WCS EU win we now know for certain one of the Ro16 Blizzcon matches: StarDust (guaranteed #8) vs. MMA (guaranteed #9). With the form MMA just showed against San, StarDust better start practicing.
Or as Die4Ever's site puts it:
~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals.
The reason that no other matchups are secured is because if HerO or Pigbaby wins WCS America, they would go to Seed #10, knocking everyone else down 1.. (Scarlett would be Seed #13).
On October 05 2014 08:11 Torrefy wrote: It's kind of interesting to look at the list of players from last year's blizzcon who either did or didn't qualify again this year.
Qualified: MC Polt Taeja Bomber MMA INnoVation
Might Qualify: Jaedong HerO
Didn't Qualify: Mvp aLive Maru Naniwa duckdeok Dear Soulkey sOs
Lots of the same Terrans are back, while Protoss and Zerg are rotating a lot more. Also, the KR heavy hitters (Maru, Dear, Soulkey, sOs) who all have a legit chance of winning got screwed by WCS. The only returning KR player is Inno, and that's by the skin of his teeth (4-2 in the last possible final of the year). MC, Polt, Taeja, Bomber, and MMA are all NA/EU WCS farmers.
Dear didn't do well at all this WCS and that has nothing to do with the changes made this year. He didn't make Ro8 in any of the GSLs so the lack of season finals wouldn't have screwed him, and the only notable results this year was getting second at ASUS, which would not have been enough anyway.
Soulkey's performance was also pretty bad this year. Again, I don't see how it has to do with WCS. I mean he made Ro8 once, which may have led to him doing well in the season final if it had existed, but he would have to win that season final in order to qualify and that's a pretty slim chance.
sOs is in a similar situation with Soulkey, but he's much closer due to him winning the IEM championship. Personally I think he could've made Blizzcon but he really screwed up during the end because he only needed 375 points to guarantee a Blizzcon spot and he had quite a few chances: GSL Season 3 semi, IEM Toronto semi, Red Bull semi, and KeSPA Cup 1 game away from that spot (or a lower placement combination of those).
On the other hand, Maru, Solar, Rain, ForGG, Golden, Welmu, Vortix, Heart, and Alicia got pretty screwed by the new WCS system because they all made Ro8 or above at least twice and could have had the chance to prove themselves in the season finals and earn enough points for Blizzcon, but I guess we would only regret that Maru and Rain didn't make it.
If sOs just beat First and Trap, without even getting into semis anywhere, he would have got enough. #SALT. Dear got screwed by mouz, he's rising back though, slowly but surely, will be interesting to see him in Proleague next year, Soulkey had pretty bad year, considering how rock solid he was in 2013, possible move to CM Storm might help him.
Maru has to be most salty though, being dominant when Terrans sucked and then falling hardcore in season which Terran won, meh. Even though, he could at least go to IEM, couldn't be worse.
But jokes aside, Blizzcon is just okayish Premier tournament, it doesn't get hyped even close to GSL finals or some IEM World Championship finals, because not all best are there.
--------UPDATE Sunday, Oct 05 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS EU and GSL Results! The biggest changes in this update are the likely seeds and likely first matches at WCS Finals. With MMA securing his #9 seed, we now have a confirmed first round match of MMA vs StarDust (see below for more). Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.
HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 4.79 %, Min WCS Points: 2250
Biggest Winners Over The Past 5 Days INnoVation went up by ~ 48.16 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.29 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 72.07 %
Biggest Losers Over The Past 5 Days ForGG went down by ~ 18.63 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 0 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 10.22 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.06 %
Likely Seeds MMA has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 89.14 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] +
Classic has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 72.07 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 64.35 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 63.34 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 60.24 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 56.9 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 54.41 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 50.01 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 49.99 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 45.59 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.57 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.56 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 36.66 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 29.56 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 27.93 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 27.93 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 27.93 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 27.92 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.71 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 21.93 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 20.39 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 20.15 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 18.57 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 17.06 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 17.05 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 16.51 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 15.44 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 10.97 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 10.86 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 10.2 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 6.86 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.63 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 6.07 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 5.43 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.43 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 2.32 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon.
Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 72.13 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 69.4 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 64.58 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 56.83 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 54.33 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 39.3 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 35.42 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 30.6 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.42 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.77 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.38 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.15 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.51 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.17 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.85 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.85 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.96 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.95 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.51 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.5 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.33 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.46 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.89 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.37 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.37 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.07 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.1 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.32 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.19 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.82 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.9 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.32 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.18 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.18 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.89 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
WCS AM Winning Gains HerO would gain ~ 95.21 % if they win, with a ~ 4.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.79 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.93 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.07 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 82.94 % if they win, with a ~ 17.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.06 % to ~ 100 %
These 3 players must win and will not make it with a 2nd place or lower. Any of these 3 players winning would knock Jaedong out. Innovation is secured.
Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv -----------------------
On October 06 2014 08:02 iGX wrote: really thank you for these especially when there's a nail biting situation like this over the 16th spot.
thank you for reading
I thought it'd be interesting to highlight the possible WCS Finals first round matches for the players who are not locked in yet.
Jaedong ~ 35.42 % chance to see Jaedong vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.15 % chance to see Jaedong vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.51 % chance to see Jaedong vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
Scarlett ~ 8.89 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.82 % chance to see Scarlett vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.18 % chance to see Scarlett vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.18 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals.
Pigbaby ~ 6.07 % chance to see Pigbaby vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. (LOL)
HerO ~ 2.9 % chance to see HerO vs TaeJa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.89 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. (dat teamkill)
Really hoping one of the scenarios happens that avoids Zest vs Bogus round 1. What are the scenarios? If Polt makes it to the finals or wins, if Bomber wins, if Scarlett wins, if HerO wins?
On October 06 2014 09:17 Thrillz wrote: Really hoping one of the scenarios happens that avoids Zest vs Bogus round 1. What are the scenarios? If Polt makes it to the finals or wins, if Bomber wins, if Scarlett wins, if HerO wins?
For Zest to not face Innovation R1, one of them has to be passed. Zest can be passed by a Top 2 Polt or a champion Bomber. Innovation can be passed by a champion Scarlett, a champion HerO, or a champion Pigbaby.
I colored the dots on the player history graphs, and also moved the event icons to the bottom since I felt like they could get in the way. The coloring is a fade from red (0%) to blue (50%) to green (100%).
Winning Chances herO has a ~ 9.48 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 8.34 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 8.2 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.2 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 8.17 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 8.08 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.02 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 6.01 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 5.61 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.58 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 5.23 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.78 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.08 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 2.22 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.07 % chance to win. Scarlett has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. HerO has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win.
Some Likely Finals Results ~ 1.29 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.22 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.18 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.17 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.1 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 1.07 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.99 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.95 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.93 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.92 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.92 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.92 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.88 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.86 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.85 % of the time soO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.82 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.82 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.82 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.81 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.79 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.77 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.77 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.75 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.75 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.74 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.73 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.7 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.69 % of the time Bomber gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.68 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.68 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.67 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Bomber gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.67 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.67 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.65 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.65 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.65 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.64 % of the time Classic gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.62 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.62 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.61 % of the time HyuN gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.61 % of the time Bomber gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Bomber gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
Some likely finals MMA vs TaeJa finals has a ~ 2.4 % chance CJ herO vs jjakji finals has a ~ 2.36 % chance MMA vs Zest finals has a ~ 2.27 % chance MMA vs Life finals has a ~ 1.95 % chance INnoVation vs Classic finals has a ~ 1.69 % chance
If you wanna check the probabilities of a Blizzcon finals just go to the Blizzcon page here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=100 Go down to the bottom in the events table, and use the search filter like this "positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation" (without the quotes). Make sure you sort by probability. It is currently tracking 245 possible finals results, so if it doesn't show up then it's pretty unlikely to happen or maybe impossible.
Here's some examples
positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation ~ 0.35 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.33 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
positive double 1st 2nd life san ~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.41 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
On October 07 2014 03:38 Die4Ever wrote: If you wanna check the probabilities of a Blizzcon finals just go to the Blizzcon page here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=100 Go down to the bottom in the events table, and use the search filter like this "positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation" (without the quotes). Make sure you sort by probability. It is currently tracking 245 possible finals results, so if it doesn't show up then it's pretty unlikely to happen or maybe impossible.
Here's some examples
positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation ~ 0.35 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.33 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
positive double 1st 2nd life san ~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.41 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Only 245? With 16 players, aren't there 480 possible finals results? (16*15 possible finals, 2 outcomes each)
On October 07 2014 03:38 Die4Ever wrote: If you wanna check the probabilities of a Blizzcon finals just go to the Blizzcon page here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=100 Go down to the bottom in the events table, and use the search filter like this "positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation" (without the quotes). Make sure you sort by probability. It is currently tracking 245 possible finals results, so if it doesn't show up then it's pretty unlikely to happen or maybe impossible.
Here's some examples
positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation ~ 0.35 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.33 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
positive double 1st 2nd life san ~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.41 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Only 245? With 16 players, aren't there 480 possible finals results? (16*15 possible finals, 2 outcomes each)
No, it's 8 players in the top bracket and 8 on the bottom, 8*8, that's only 64 possible if the seedings were all set. I'm not sure how many are actually possible with the seedings not set yet, but I think 245 (well half as many since 245 is results) is pretty good. It doesn't have Pigbaby vs Hyun, but it does have Jaedong vs Hyun, Bomber vs Jaedong, and MC vs Hyun, so it's definitely got some good coverage.
On October 07 2014 03:38 Die4Ever wrote: If you wanna check the probabilities of a Blizzcon finals just go to the Blizzcon page here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=100 Go down to the bottom in the events table, and use the search filter like this "positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation" (without the quotes). Make sure you sort by probability. It is currently tracking 245 possible finals results, so if it doesn't show up then it's pretty unlikely to happen or maybe impossible.
Here's some examples
positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation ~ 0.35 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.33 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
positive double 1st 2nd life san ~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.41 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Only 245? With 16 players, aren't there 480 possible finals results? (16*15 possible finals, 2 outcomes each)
No, it's 8 players in the top bracket and 8 on the bottom, 8*8, that's only 64 possible if the seedings were all set. I'm not sure how many are actually possible with the seedings not set yet, but I think 245 (well half as many since 245 is results) is pretty good. It doesn't have Pigbaby vs Hyun, but it does have Jaedong vs Hyun, Bomber vs Jaedong, and MC vs Hyun, so it's definitely got some good coverage.
Yeah, but there are 46 brackets, so even though one match is already set (Stardust vs MMA), I figured there would be close to 480 final results.
On October 07 2014 03:38 Die4Ever wrote: If you wanna check the probabilities of a Blizzcon finals just go to the Blizzcon page here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=100 Go down to the bottom in the events table, and use the search filter like this "positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation" (without the quotes). Make sure you sort by probability. It is currently tracking 245 possible finals results, so if it doesn't show up then it's pretty unlikely to happen or maybe impossible.
Here's some examples
positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation ~ 0.35 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.33 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
positive double 1st 2nd life san ~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.41 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Only 245? With 16 players, aren't there 480 possible finals results? (16*15 possible finals, 2 outcomes each)
No, it's 8 players in the top bracket and 8 on the bottom, 8*8, that's only 64 possible if the seedings were all set. I'm not sure how many are actually possible with the seedings not set yet, but I think 245 (well half as many since 245 is results) is pretty good. It doesn't have Pigbaby vs Hyun, but it does have Jaedong vs Hyun, Bomber vs Jaedong, and MC vs Hyun, so it's definitely got some good coverage.
Yeah, but there are 46 brackets, so even though one match is already set (Stardust vs MMA), I figured there would be close to 480 final results.
Even though only 1 match is set, I think some more players are already set to 1 side of the bracket.
Hero and Pigbaby can only be seed #10, Scarlett can only be #13, Jaedong can only be #16. Zest can only be #2 or #3 which are both on the lower half of the bracket. Probably some others with a similar status too considering that #12 and #13 are on the same side of the bracket, so are #4 and #5, #10 and #11, #6 and #7, and #14 and #15. It's a very complex problem lol, I don't know how many possible finals there are, but I think it's tracking a large number of them, and all of the likely ones.
I used some javascript to add up all the probabilities of the finals results events and got 99.6488784
So there's about 0.3511216 % remaining that is unaccounted for, which means it's tracking the vast majority of possibilities and certainly all of the decently likely finals.
I'd be interested to hear thoughts on the following.
So the way aligulac is set up, it seems like it pretty consistently over-rates foreigners and Koreans competing in foreign countries. As such, the Blizzcon predictor shows a high chance of foreigners making the finals and foreign Koreans winning the tournament up until the moment it becomes mathematically impossible.
For instance, Snute had something like a 50% chance of qualifying at one point but this seemed to be based on predictions that he would score really highly at Dreamhack against tons of top Koreans. Snute is amazing but 50% always seemed high. And then there's the fact that Scarlett still has a 17% chance of qualifying despite the fact that she has to win WCS America to do so. Keeping in mind that no foreigner has ever won a WCS tournament, this seems unlikely to actually have 17% probability (I'm rooting for Scarlett 100%, I'm just trying to be objective here. In fact if she pulls it off (which I think she can) she deserves much more credit than "oh that would've happened roughly 1 in 5 times anyway"). Finally, Innovation and MMA are as likely to win the tournament? Same for Jjakji and Zest as well as San and SoO? Wait what?
yeah that's the problem I have with using aligulac for predictions.
why not just wait until someone is a lock (mathematically impossible for them to be eliminated from top 16), and until they are a lock, you can list the scenarios where they are eliminated. (I assume these lists would be huge, though)
On October 07 2014 05:06 Popkiller wrote: yeah that's the problem I have with using aligulac for predictions.
why not just wait until someone is a lock (mathematically impossible for them to be eliminated from top 16), and until they are a lock, you can list the scenarios where they are eliminated. (I assume these lists would be huge, though)
You can pretty much already do this with the events, you can see what secures them and what eliminates them, and you can see events that increase or decrease their chances. You can think of the chances as relative if you don't like aligulac ratings or use the all players are equal setting http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0
I do wish Aligulac weighted online matches less though, and tweaked the curve of rating changes when a strong player faces a weak player, the weak player farming is much too strong. Does a bo7 count more for aligulac than a best of 3?
On October 07 2014 05:06 Popkiller wrote: yeah that's the problem I have with using aligulac for predictions.
why not just wait until someone is a lock (mathematically impossible for them to be eliminated from top 16), and until they are a lock, you can list the scenarios where they are eliminated. (I assume these lists would be huge, though)
You can pretty much already do this with the events, you can see what secures them and what eliminates them, and you can see events that increase or decrease their chances. You can think of the chances as relative if you don't like aligulac ratings or use the all players are equal setting http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0
I do wish Aligulac weighted online matches less though, and tweaked the curve of rating changes when a strong player faces a weak player, the weak player farming is much too strong. Does a bo7 count more for aligulac than a best of 3?
yeah aligulac would then have a lot less issue with foreign Koreans being rated so highly. as a result in twisted your own stats to say that jjakji to be 5th in chances to win blizzcon when in reality he's the weakest player out of the 16.
On October 07 2014 05:06 Popkiller wrote: yeah that's the problem I have with using aligulac for predictions.
why not just wait until someone is a lock (mathematically impossible for them to be eliminated from top 16), and until they are a lock, you can list the scenarios where they are eliminated. (I assume these lists would be huge, though)
You can pretty much already do this with the events, you can see what secures them and what eliminates them, and you can see events that increase or decrease their chances. You can think of the chances as relative if you don't like aligulac ratings or use the all players are equal setting http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0
I do wish Aligulac weighted online matches less though, and tweaked the curve of rating changes when a strong player faces a weak player, the weak player farming is much too strong. Does a bo7 count more for aligulac than a best of 3?
yeah aligulac would then have a lot less issue with foreign Koreans being rated so highly. as a result in twisted your own stats to say that jjakji to be 5th in chances to win blizzcon when in reality he's the weakest player out of the 16.
It's not that simple to just "weigh" something less. Trust me. We are continuing to work on it.
I think it is better without aligulac and other stuff next year. I dont like that the chance of x is higher than of y (both have same wcs points) to come to blizccon because of current performance. Just do "neutral" math. thats why we see Jaedong chance slight differently daily. 72% and next day 72.5% (numbers random chosen) while no sc2 happened/played there.
On October 07 2014 05:06 Popkiller wrote: yeah that's the problem I have with using aligulac for predictions.
why not just wait until someone is a lock (mathematically impossible for them to be eliminated from top 16), and until they are a lock, you can list the scenarios where they are eliminated. (I assume these lists would be huge, though)
You can pretty much already do this with the events, you can see what secures them and what eliminates them, and you can see events that increase or decrease their chances. You can think of the chances as relative if you don't like aligulac ratings or use the all players are equal setting http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0
I do wish Aligulac weighted online matches less though, and tweaked the curve of rating changes when a strong player faces a weak player, the weak player farming is much too strong. Does a bo7 count more for aligulac than a best of 3?
yeah aligulac would then have a lot less issue with foreign Koreans being rated so highly. as a result in twisted your own stats to say that jjakji to be 5th in chances to win blizzcon when in reality he's the weakest player out of the 16.
It's not that simple to just "weigh" something less. Trust me. We are continuing to work on it.
To expand on this. We have tried some things to improve the rating algorithm and will continue to do so. However here are some points to reflect upon:
Farming is not isolated to online cups.
Farming is mostly a problem with newly added players. We have some ideas of how to solve this.
Maybe your personal rating of players is wrong. People tend to overrate their favorites.
Neither me or TheBB have a lot of time right now. But we are aware of this problem and it is brought up frequently in our internal discussions.
On October 07 2014 21:18 Dingodile wrote: I think it is better without aligulac and other stuff next year. I dont like that the chance of x is higher than of y (both have same wcs points) to come to blizccon because of current performance. Just do "neutral" math. thats why we see Jaedong chance slight differently daily. 72% and next day 72.5% (numbers random chosen) while no sc2 happened/played there.
[*] Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 62.5 %, Min WCS Points: 3200 [*] Pigbaby, is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 [*] HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 [*] Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
I really don't think it's that different since the matches left are between all strong players so they're pretty close. The Aligulac ratings mostly help with Dreamhacks where we all can guess the top 32 players with like 99% accuracy, it's kind of dumb to give a player like MMA a 50% chance to lose in the round of 64 there. Next year I might try adjusting it so near equal players have closer to 50/50 but keep the discrepancy when the players are far apart in Aligulac ratings.
It would be fascinating to get some statistic for the skill with which aligulac predicts outcomes. Especially for specific players.
Also, I'm not trying to bash either the Blizzcon predictor or Aligulac; both are awesome and I look at them frequently. I just think they could be improved. It's good to hear that this is an issue that is being actively worked on.
On October 08 2014 03:59 e edgar wrote: It would be fascinating to get some statistic for the skill with which aligulac predicts outcomes. Especially for specific players.
Also, I'm not trying to bash either the Blizzcon predictor or Aligulac; both are awesome and I look at them frequently. I just think they could be improved. It's good to hear that this is an issue that is being actively worked on.
Not sure what you're asking here. Do you want a percentage of correctly guessed scores?
Aligulac isn't perfect but I think its certainly more accurate than assuming a 50/50 result all the time. I do think some of the bias against their ratings is that sometimes aligulac doesnt value fan favorites as highly as people want because fans' conception of player skill tends to lag significantly behind current form. I do agree though that aligulac seems to overvalue 'foreign koreans. For example last I checked Sacsri was rated #3 despite not having achieved much of anything since his breakout tournament win a few months ago and with most of his recent recorded wins being against relatively less known foreigners.
On October 07 2014 21:18 Dingodile wrote: I think it is better without aligulac and other stuff next year. I dont like that the chance of x is higher than of y (both have same wcs points) to come to blizccon because of current performance. Just do "neutral" math. thats why we see Jaedong chance slight differently daily. 72% and next day 72.5% (numbers random chosen) while no sc2 happened/played there.
[*] Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 62.5 %, Min WCS Points: 3200 [*] Pigbaby, is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 [*] HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 [*] Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
I really don't think it's that different since the matches left are between all strong players so they're pretty close. The Aligulac ratings mostly help with Dreamhacks where we all can guess the top 32 players with like 99% accuracy, it's kind of dumb to give a player like MMA a 50% chance to lose in the round of 64 there. Next year I might try adjusting it so near equal players have closer to 50/50 but keep the discrepancy when the players are far apart in Aligulac ratings.
And this link will be easier to find next year.
Please keep the Aligulac prediction column and just add another "unbiased" one if you want. I think the way it's done at the moment is exactly how it should be! Assuming 50% winrate, even between top players, is a mistake. I'd rather rely on the science behind Aligulac, which makes a lot of sense.
On October 08 2014 21:43 gneGne wrote: Aligulac is not science... it is probabilities based on performances in the past.
So you mean to tell me that mathematics (statistics and probabilities are parts of maths) are not a science? The way Aligulac proceeds to compute their predictions is as close to science as you'll get from sc2 data. (read their FAQ)
In any case, I'd like to hear the arguments defending the point that 50/50 would actually be a better prediction for top games... This is just wrong. Feelings are biased. "The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not."
On October 08 2014 21:43 gneGne wrote: Aligulac is not science... it is probabilities based on performances in the past.
So you mean to tell me that mathematics (statistics and probabilities are parts of maths) are not a science? The way Aligulac proceeds to compute their predictions is as close to science as you'll get from sc2 data. (read their FAQ)
In any case, I'd like to hear the arguments defending the point that 50/50 would actually be a better prediction for top games... This is just wrong. Feelings are biased. "The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not."
Statistics are great and all, but aligulac has a problem where it reward players who play against weaker opponents and win a lot over players who play against and win less against stronger opponents. If two players were completely even, but one played in Korea and the other NA, the NA player would likely be rated higher because they win more, but that doesn't mean it's an accurate rating.
You guys are all discussing Aligulac ratings in terms of great players like Yoda vs Innovation, but you're forgetting that where they make the most difference is when it's RandomUSAPlayer vs Polt in WCS AM qualifiers, or RandomOpenBracketPlayer vs MMA at a Dreamhack, these matches are a big deal for Blizzcon chances and doing them 50/50 throws it all off especially in the beginning of the year. In the end of the year now we only have some top players facing each other (and there is an option to view the 50/50 stats if you want), but in the beginning of the year there'll be a lot of those weaker players vs top players matches that need to be predicted when simulating 5 Dreamhacks and a few IEMs with open brackets, and WCS qualifiers, and every other tournament of the year.
On October 08 2014 23:23 sharkie wrote: nowadays everything is called a science ^^
that's because science is a general term which can encompass many different disciplines? and it's not "nowadays" it's always been true. if you use the scientific method you're doing science
On October 07 2014 21:18 Dingodile wrote: I think it is better without aligulac and other stuff next year. I dont like that the chance of x is higher than of y (both have same wcs points) to come to blizccon because of current performance. Just do "neutral" math. thats why we see Jaedong chance slight differently daily. 72% and next day 72.5% (numbers random chosen) while no sc2 happened/played there.
[*] Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 62.5 %, Min WCS Points: 3200 [*] Pigbaby, is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2500 [*] HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2250 [*] Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 12.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
I really don't think it's that different since the matches left are between all strong players so they're pretty close. The Aligulac ratings mostly help with Dreamhacks where we all can guess the top 32 players with like 99% accuracy, it's kind of dumb to give a player like MMA a 50% chance to lose in the round of 64 there. Next year I might try adjusting it so near equal players have closer to 50/50 but keep the discrepancy when the players are far apart in Aligulac ratings.
And this link will be easier to find next year.
Please keep the Aligulac prediction column and just add another "unbiased" one if you want. I think the way it's done at the moment is exactly how it should be! Assuming 50% winrate, even between top players, is a mistake. I'd rather rely on the science behind Aligulac, which makes a lot of sense.
I think it would be too confusing to show some 50/50 stats along with Aligulac based stats at the same time, reading the Median WCS Points, and Upcoming Match previews, and events. I'm just going to maybe make it slightly easier to find a link to the 50/50 stats so you can view those if you really want, but they're pretty useless until the end of the year.
On October 08 2014 21:43 gneGne wrote: Aligulac is not science... it is probabilities based on performances in the past.
So you mean to tell me that mathematics (statistics and probabilities are parts of maths) are not a science? The way Aligulac proceeds to compute their predictions is as close to science as you'll get from sc2 data. (read their FAQ)
In any case, I'd like to hear the arguments defending the point that 50/50 would actually be a better prediction for top games... This is just wrong. Feelings are biased. "The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not."
I dont understand some of the logic on Aligulac. For example, Sacsri won a unimpressive dreamhack , beating most foreigners and EU koreans and his rating jumped from 1500 to 2100....meanwhile, a 4 times GSL finalist soo barely hit 2000 mark and during his GSL runs he was ranked anywhere from 1700 to 1800. This does not make any sense .. at all....
On October 08 2014 21:43 gneGne wrote: Aligulac is not science... it is probabilities based on performances in the past.
So you mean to tell me that mathematics (statistics and probabilities are parts of maths) are not a science? The way Aligulac proceeds to compute their predictions is as close to science as you'll get from sc2 data. (read their FAQ)
In any case, I'd like to hear the arguments defending the point that 50/50 would actually be a better prediction for top games... This is just wrong. Feelings are biased. "The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not."
I dont understand some of the logic on Aligulac. For example, Sacsri won a unimpressive dreamhack , beating most foreigners and EU koreans and his rating jumped from 1500 to 2100....meanwhile, a 4 times GSL finalist soo barely hit 2000 mark and during his GSL runs he was ranked anywhere from 1700 to 1800. This does not make any sense .. at all....
It must favor champions over finalists by a very large margin. Other than that, the only thing to keep in mind is that soO's first GSL finals was last year, so as far as 2014 WCS is concerned, he was only a two-time runner-up until he faced Innovation. Still, two time runner-up of GSL should mean a hell of a lot more than it does. There's no way that soO should not have more WCS points than anybody else in the system in 2014. There just isn't.
On October 08 2014 21:43 gneGne wrote: Aligulac is not science... it is probabilities based on performances in the past.
So you mean to tell me that mathematics (statistics and probabilities are parts of maths) are not a science? The way Aligulac proceeds to compute their predictions is as close to science as you'll get from sc2 data. (read their FAQ)
In any case, I'd like to hear the arguments defending the point that 50/50 would actually be a better prediction for top games... This is just wrong. Feelings are biased. "The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not."
I dont understand some of the logic on Aligulac. For example, Sacsri won a unimpressive dreamhack , beating most foreigners and EU koreans and his rating jumped from 1500 to 2100....meanwhile, a 4 times GSL finalist soo barely hit 2000 mark and during his GSL runs he was ranked anywhere from 1700 to 1800. This does not make any sense .. at all....
It must favor champions over finalists by a very large margin. Other than that, the only thing to keep in mind is that soO's first GSL finals was last year, so as far as 2014 WCS is concerned, he was only a two-time runner-up until he faced Innovation. Still, two time runner-up of GSL should mean a hell of a lot more than it does. There's no way that soO should not have more WCS points than anybody else in the system in 2014. There just isn't.
Aligulac doesn't know whether or not a match was for the championship, just who the players are and their ratings.
As for the quoted post and soO's score, you can click on the arrows to the right for each time period in Soo's historical rating to see who he played, what each of their ratings were beforehand, and how soO's rating was affected.
The short answer to the soO question is that soO tended to lose a lot of non-GSL matches during time periods where he won a ton of GSL matches (e.g., his first finals run was interspersed with non-GSL losses to Byul, Maru, San, and Bunny, not to mention two GSL group stage losses). Sacsri only lost one match during his huge jump period, and the players he beat had generally similar ratings to the ones that soO tends to beat in proleague.
On October 08 2014 21:43 gneGne wrote: Aligulac is not science... it is probabilities based on performances in the past.
So you mean to tell me that mathematics (statistics and probabilities are parts of maths) are not a science? The way Aligulac proceeds to compute their predictions is as close to science as you'll get from sc2 data. (read their FAQ)
In any case, I'd like to hear the arguments defending the point that 50/50 would actually be a better prediction for top games... This is just wrong. Feelings are biased. "The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not."
I dont understand some of the logic on Aligulac. For example, Sacsri won a unimpressive dreamhack , beating most foreigners and EU koreans and his rating jumped from 1500 to 2100....meanwhile, a 4 times GSL finalist soo barely hit 2000 mark and during his GSL runs he was ranked anywhere from 1700 to 1800. This does not make any sense .. at all....
It must favor champions over finalists by a very large margin. Other than that, the only thing to keep in mind is that soO's first GSL finals was last year, so as far as 2014 WCS is concerned, he was only a two-time runner-up until he faced Innovation. Still, two time runner-up of GSL should mean a hell of a lot more than it does. There's no way that soO should not have more WCS points than anybody else in the system in 2014. There just isn't.
Aligulac doesn't know whether or not a match was for the championship, just who the players are and their ratings.
As for the quoted post and soO's score, you can click on the arrows to the right for each time period in Soo's historical rating to see who he played, what each of their ratings were beforehand, and how soO's rating was affected.
The short answer to the soO question is that soO tended to lose a lot of non-GSL matches during time periods where he won a ton of GSL matches (e.g., his first finals run was interspersed with non-GSL losses to Byul, Maru, San, and Bunny, not to mention two GSL group stage losses). Sacsri only lost one match during his huge jump period, and the players he beat had generally similar ratings to the ones that soO tends to beat in proleague.
The last ten opponents beat soO were: Innovation Solar Bbyong Super Classic Flash Hydra herO True Rogue The last ten opponents beat Sacsri were: ShoWTime Hyun Snute First herO Elazer Hurricane RagnaroK Lilbow Zoun I dont think I need to say more, the list explains itself.
On October 08 2014 21:43 gneGne wrote: Aligulac is not science... it is probabilities based on performances in the past.
So you mean to tell me that mathematics (statistics and probabilities are parts of maths) are not a science? The way Aligulac proceeds to compute their predictions is as close to science as you'll get from sc2 data. (read their FAQ)
In any case, I'd like to hear the arguments defending the point that 50/50 would actually be a better prediction for top games... This is just wrong. Feelings are biased. "The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not."
I dont understand some of the logic on Aligulac. For example, Sacsri won a unimpressive dreamhack , beating most foreigners and EU koreans and his rating jumped from 1500 to 2100....meanwhile, a 4 times GSL finalist soo barely hit 2000 mark and during his GSL runs he was ranked anywhere from 1700 to 1800. This does not make any sense .. at all....
It must favor champions over finalists by a very large margin. Other than that, the only thing to keep in mind is that soO's first GSL finals was last year, so as far as 2014 WCS is concerned, he was only a two-time runner-up until he faced Innovation. Still, two time runner-up of GSL should mean a hell of a lot more than it does. There's no way that soO should not have more WCS points than anybody else in the system in 2014. There just isn't.
Aligulac doesn't know whether or not a match was for the championship, just who the players are and their ratings.
As for the quoted post and soO's score, you can click on the arrows to the right for each time period in Soo's historical rating to see who he played, what each of their ratings were beforehand, and how soO's rating was affected.
The short answer to the soO question is that soO tended to lose a lot of non-GSL matches during time periods where he won a ton of GSL matches (e.g., his first finals run was interspersed with non-GSL losses to Byul, Maru, San, and Bunny, not to mention two GSL group stage losses). Sacsri only lost one match during his huge jump period, and the players he beat had generally similar ratings to the ones that soO tends to beat in proleague.
The last ten opponents beat soO were: Innovation Solar Bbyong Super Classic Flash Hydra herO True Rogue The last ten opponents beat Sacsri were: ShoWTime Hyun Snute First herO Elazer Hurricane RagnaroK Lilbow Zoun I dont think I need to say more, the list explains itself.
I took you to be making a different point than the old one that aligulac seems to overrate players who play mostly outside of Korea. Instead I took you to be asking how even by that standard soO would never experience as big a rating jump as sacsri did given all soO's success, and I answered that question. Apparently you were making the first point.
Winning Chances herO has a ~ 9.48 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 8.34 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 8.2 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.2 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 8.17 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 8.08 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.02 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 6.01 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 5.61 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.58 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 5.23 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.78 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.08 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 2.22 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.07 % chance to win. Scarlett has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. HerO has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win.
Some Likely Finals Results ~ 1.29 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.22 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.18 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.17 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.1 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 1.07 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.99 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.95 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.93 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.92 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.92 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.92 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.88 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.86 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.85 % of the time soO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.82 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.82 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.82 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.81 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.79 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.77 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.77 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.75 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.75 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.74 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.73 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.7 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.69 % of the time Bomber gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.68 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.68 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.67 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Bomber gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.67 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.67 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.65 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.65 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.65 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.64 % of the time Classic gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.62 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.62 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.61 % of the time HyuN gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.61 % of the time Bomber gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Bomber gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 0.6 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
Some likely finals MMA vs TaeJa finals has a ~ 2.4 % chance CJ herO vs jjakji finals has a ~ 2.36 % chance MMA vs Zest finals has a ~ 2.27 % chance MMA vs Life finals has a ~ 1.95 % chance INnoVation vs Classic finals has a ~ 1.69 % chance[/QUOTE]
~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 72.12 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 69.44 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 64.46 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 56.87 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 54.37 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 39.3 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 35.54 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 30.56 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.38 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.79 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.43 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.1 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.43 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.19 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.82 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.81 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.97 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.97 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.51 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.49 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.4 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.49 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.85 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.34 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.34 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.11 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.09 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.35 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.17 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.8 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.93 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.35 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.17 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.17 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.9 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
On October 07 2014 21:18 Dingodile wrote: I think it is better without aligulac and other stuff next year. I dont like that the chance of x is higher than of y (both have same wcs points) to come to blizccon because of current performance. Just do "neutral" math. thats why we see Jaedong chance slight differently daily. 72% and next day 72.5% (numbers random chosen) while no sc2 happened/played there.
that would massively underestimate the chances for someone who is behind to get points at dreamhack for example, you play alot of randoms and expecting a good player to go 50/50 against those people is massively unaccurate, and the prediction will give you an extremely low expectation values for players to get points at these events even when them getting points in that event would basicly be a shoe in, noone says agiculac can predict winrates exactly, its still the best we have, you need some kinda weight to measure the opposition they meet in these tournaments.
~ 6.4793 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.7819 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.7746 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.9437 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.8949 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.8895 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.7205 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.6317 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.0609 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.0571 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.8881 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Polt vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.3436 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 herO #4 San vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 jjakji #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.3224 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 herO #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.305 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.2948 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.9895 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.9135 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Polt vs #11 jjakji #3 Bomber vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.9095 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Bomber vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.3492 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 herO #4 San vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.3358 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.0328 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.0122 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 herO #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 1.7891 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 San vs #13 herO
#6 Bomber vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 TaeJa vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.7782 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 jjakji
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 Polt vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 Pigbaby #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.7757 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 jjakji
#6 Bomber vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 TaeJa vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.7656 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 herO
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 Polt vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 Pigbaby #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.6164 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 San vs #13 herO
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 Pigbaby #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.5929 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 jjakji
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 Pigbaby #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.5331 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 1.1514 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 jjakji
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.1463 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 San vs #13 herO
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 0.9208 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
Likely first round WCS Global Finals matches ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 69.81 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 68.95 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 62.39 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 55.69 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 51.79 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 48.21 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 38.63 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 31.05 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 30.19 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.7 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.16 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.93 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.3 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.7 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.83 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.15 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.12 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.21 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.18 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.35 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.77 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.72 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.87 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.68 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.68 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.55 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.47 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.29 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
On October 08 2014 20:50 Yakikorosu wrote: Aligulac isn't perfect but I think its certainly more accurate than assuming a 50/50 result all the time. I do think some of the bias against their ratings is that sometimes aligulac doesnt value fan favorites as highly as people want because fans' conception of player skill tends to lag significantly behind current form. I do agree though that aligulac seems to overvalue 'foreign koreans. For example last I checked Sacsri was rated #3 despite not having achieved much of anything since his breakout tournament win a few months ago and with most of his recent recorded wins being against relatively less known foreigners.
It is pretty accurate when evaluating known players vs complete randoms early on in tournaments. It does tend to overvalue the foreign scene. There's usually some random foreign Koreans who are rated higher than the top GSL Koreans for various reasons.
~ 5.8555 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.8037 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.561 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.1189 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.1089 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.7224 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.712 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.1352 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.1203 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.8402 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.8285 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.7008 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 herO #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.6971 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 herO #4 San vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 jjakji #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.5294 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Bomber vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.5145 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Polt vs #11 jjakji #3 Bomber vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.3639 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Polt vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.9602 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.5993 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.5979 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 herO #4 San vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.5284 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.2445 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 herO #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.2247 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 TaeJa vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 Bomber vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 1.792 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 1.576 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 herO
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 Polt vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 Pigbaby #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.5566 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 jjakji
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 Polt vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 Pigbaby #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.5292 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 1.5244 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 San vs #13 herO
#6 Bomber vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 TaeJa vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.4993 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 jjakji
#6 Bomber vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 TaeJa vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.421 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 San vs #13 herO
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 Pigbaby #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 1.3999 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 jjakji
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 Pigbaby #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 0.9734 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 jjakji
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 0.9609 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 San vs #13 herO
#6 TaeJa vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 Bomber vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
Likely first round WCS Global Finals matches ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 69.17 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 64.22 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 61.54 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 56.97 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 54.42 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 43.03 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 39.28 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 35.78 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 30.83 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.46 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.5 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.48 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.12 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.13 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.91 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.9 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.64 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.92 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.91 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.63 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.47 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.43 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.65 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.02 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.3 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.3 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.94 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.07 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.02 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.95 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 9.1047 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 9.0285 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 8.5519 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 7.9509 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 7.9389 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 7.3859 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 7.3764 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.5101 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Bomber vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.4695 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Polt vs #11 jjakji #3 Bomber vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.1764 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Polt vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.5674 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.0866 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 4.0387 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 herO #4 San vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 MC vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 3.9902 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.7658 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.4026 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 2.3492 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 Polt vs #12 jjakji #4 San vs #13 herO
#6 Bomber vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 TaeJa vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
~ 2.3063 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 INnoVation #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 jjakji
#6 Bomber vs #11 soO #3 MC vs #14 Classic #7 TaeJa vs #10 HerO #2 Zest vs #15 Life ------------------
Likely first round WCS Global Finals matches ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 95.33 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 62.75 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 58.91 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 58.36 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] +
~ 56.58 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 41.64 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 37.25 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 37.03 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.99 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.2 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.09 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.37 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.35 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.16 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.16 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.66 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.63 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 15.88 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.71 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.97 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.13 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.39 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.67 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.67 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.06 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.06 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals.
On October 12 2014 11:19 The_Templar wrote: so, for TaeJa to not face soO in the first round, HerO has to win WCS?
~ 95.34 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. yep lol
On October 12 2014 11:19 The_Templar wrote: so, for TaeJa to not face soO in the first round, HerO has to win WCS?
~ 95.34 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. yep lol
Oh man, both of those would be amazing for completely different reasons
On October 12 2014 11:19 The_Templar wrote: so, for TaeJa to not face soO in the first round, HerO has to win WCS?
~ 95.34 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. yep lol
Oh man, both of those would be amazing for completely different reasons
There's nothing amazing about Taeja getting knocked out in Ro16.
I was going to say "Taeja or soO" but... this being Ro16 and all...
On October 12 2014 11:19 The_Templar wrote: so, for TaeJa to not face soO in the first round, HerO has to win WCS?
~ 95.34 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. yep lol
Oh man, both of those would be amazing for completely different reasons
There's nothing amazing about Taeja getting knocked out in Ro16.
I was going to say "Taeja or soO" but... this being Ro16 and all...
TaeJa vs soO would produce glorious games, and TaeJa vs HerO is a team kill and very likely TaeJa win :D
On October 12 2014 11:19 The_Templar wrote: so, for TaeJa to not face soO in the first round, HerO has to win WCS?
~ 95.34 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. yep lol
Oh man, both of those would be amazing for completely different reasons
There's nothing amazing about Taeja getting knocked out in Ro16.
I was going to say "Taeja or soO" but... this being Ro16 and all...
TaeJa vs soO would produce glorious games, and TaeJa vs HerO is a team kill and very likely TaeJa win :D
So either I consign myself to losing Taeja or soO right out of the gate, or I have to trade Jaedong for HerO? God damn it.
On October 12 2014 11:19 The_Templar wrote: so, for TaeJa to not face soO in the first round, HerO has to win WCS?
~ 95.34 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. yep lol
Oh man, both of those would be amazing for completely different reasons
There's nothing amazing about Taeja getting knocked out in Ro16.
I was going to say "Taeja or soO" but... this being Ro16 and all...
TaeJa vs soO would produce glorious games, and TaeJa vs HerO is a team kill and very likely TaeJa win :D
Well only way HerO is even getting there is if he beats Polt AND Bomber, so if he manages that I would think a win against TaeJa would be far from impossible.
On October 12 2014 12:50 SNSeigifried wrote: Die4Ever what you think of the top 16 that we would have with just wcs points gained within wcs (this doesn't count if hero wins xD
no Jaedong, +Maru, +Heart, +Pigbaby, +Rain, +Golden all sounds good except no Life and no Taeja
On October 12 2014 12:50 SNSeigifried wrote: Die4Ever what you think of the top 16 that we would have with just wcs points gained within wcs (this doesn't count if hero wins xD
no Jaedong, +Maru, +Heart, +Pigbaby, +Rain, +Golden all sounds good except no Life and no Taeja
And we're gonna need Life to kick some serious ass this Blizzcon if we want to see ZvPs and TvZs.
~ 13.9947 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 13.969 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 12.7641 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 11.8378 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 11.7625 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 11.4559 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 jjakji #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 11.4314 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 6.9617 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 5.8229 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 jjakji #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 herO #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
Possible first round WCS Global Finals matches ~ 100 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 71.99 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 56.71 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 50.01 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 49.99 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 46.45 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 43.29 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 26.8 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 26.75 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.54 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.56 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.23 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.22 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.89 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.73 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.81 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.
~ 28.0477 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 23.5636 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 22.8284 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 13.914 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 11.6463 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Bomber vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
Possible first round WCS Global Finals matches ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 100 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 71.99 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 62.52 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 53.57 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 53.57 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 46.43 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 46.43 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 46.43 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 37.48 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 28.01 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.57 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.59 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.83 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.89 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.68 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.
On October 12 2014 13:42 Yorkie wrote: How is Life vs Zest such a high percent? If Bomber beats Polt tomorrow won't it stay Polt vs Life and Innovation vs Zest?
On October 12 2014 13:42 Yorkie wrote: How is Life vs Zest such a high percent? If Bomber beats Polt tomorrow won't it stay Polt vs Life and Innovation vs Zest?
Bomber can also pass Zest
Damnit can we rig this so they both lose? I really don't want Life to play Zest
Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.
~ 1.7 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.66 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.58 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.49 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.47 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.44 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.35 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.33 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.14 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.13 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.11 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.06 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.04 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.01 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
WCS Global Finals chances to lose in the first round MC ~ 68.33 % of the time StarDust ~ 55.3 % of the time San ~ 55.18 % of the time Jaedong ~ 54.49 % of the time soO ~ 53.84 % of the time Life ~ 51.97 % of the time HyuN ~ 49.03 % of the time Zest ~ 48.79 % of the time Bomber ~ 48.67 % of the time Classic ~ 47.33 % of the time INnoVation ~ 47.23 % of the time jjakji ~ 46.71 % of the time Polt ~ 46.33 % of the time TaeJa ~ 46.16 % of the time MMA ~ 44.7 % of the time herO ~ 35.93 % of the time
This list really illustrates the problem with Aligulac at the top player ratings. The idea that jjakji is more likely to win Blizzcon than Zest or Life more likely than soO is just kind of ludicrous.
Edit: Also it needs to be manually edited to give soO a 100% chance of finishing second.
On October 12 2014 15:26 Yakikorosu wrote: This list really illustrates the problem with Aligulac at the top player ratings. The idea that jjakji is more likely to win Blizzcon than Zest or Life more likely than soO is just kind of ludicrous.
Edit: Also it needs to be manually edited to give soO a 100% chance of finishing second.
Any estimation comes with an uncertainity, which is usually represented by a confidence interval.
The list doens't give those but, in all likelyhood, they are more than big enough to make the difference between Jjakji and Zest totally irrelevant.
If you wanted to rank players you would have to perform a proper statistical test of the hypothesis %win(jjakji) > %win(Zest) and I would be surprised that this test could let you conclude with a proper probability value.
Estimating is one thing, comparing is another that requires much more precision.
TL;DR : There is no problem with Aligulac, there only a problem with comparing an estimate of 7.76% with and an estimate of 7.67% : it's just not relevant.
On October 12 2014 15:26 Yakikorosu wrote: This list really illustrates the problem with Aligulac at the top player ratings. The idea that jjakji is more likely to win Blizzcon than Zest or Life more likely than soO is just kind of ludicrous.
Edit: Also it needs to be manually edited to give soO a 100% chance of finishing second.
Any estimation comes with an uncertainity, which is usually represented by a confidence interval.
The list doens't give those but, in all likelyhood, they are more than big enough to make the difference between Jjakji and Zest totally irrelevant.
If you wanted to rank players you would have to perform a proper statistical test of the hypothesis %win(jjakji) > %win(Zest) and I would be surprised that this test could let you conclude with a proper probability value.
Estimating is one thing, comparing is another that requires much more precision.
TL;DR : There is no problem with Aligulac, there only a problem with comparing an estimate of 7.76% with and an estimate of 7.67% : it's just not relevant.
You're kind of missing the point though: jjakji and Zest should NOT be statistically similar chances to win. Zest's chances to win should be many, many times higher than jjakji's. Watching them play over the last year, Zest is much, much, MUCH better than jjakji (no offense to jjakji, Zest is much, much, MUCH better than 95% of SC2 pros).
On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote: Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.
~ 1.7 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.66 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.58 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.49 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.47 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.44 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.35 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.33 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.14 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.13 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.11 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.06 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.04 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.01 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.
On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote: Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.
~ 1.7 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.66 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.58 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.49 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.47 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.44 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.35 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.33 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.14 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.13 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.11 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.06 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.04 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.01 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.
The predictions are all based on Aligulac ratings, and herO is currently the highest rated player on Aligulac out of the ones that made it to Blizzcon. It's hard to argue too strongly against herO though, sure you can say that Zest and maybe soO and INnoVation are favored over him but between his performances in SPL and KeSPA Cup recently he's got to be up there as a favorite.
On October 12 2014 15:26 Yakikorosu wrote: This list really illustrates the problem with Aligulac at the top player ratings. The idea that jjakji is more likely to win Blizzcon than Zest or Life more likely than soO is just kind of ludicrous.
Edit: Also it needs to be manually edited to give soO a 100% chance of finishing second.
Any estimation comes with an uncertainity, which is usually represented by a confidence interval.
The list doens't give those but, in all likelyhood, they are more than big enough to make the difference between Jjakji and Zest totally irrelevant.
If you wanted to rank players you would have to perform a proper statistical test of the hypothesis %win(jjakji) > %win(Zest) and I would be surprised that this test could let you conclude with a proper probability value.
Estimating is one thing, comparing is another that requires much more precision.
TL;DR : There is no problem with Aligulac, there only a problem with comparing an estimate of 7.76% with and an estimate of 7.67% : it's just not relevant.
You're kind of missing the point though: jjakji and Zest should NOT be statistically similar chances to win. Zest's chances to win should be many, many times higher than jjakji's. Watching them play over the last year, Zest is much, much, MUCH better than jjakji (no offense to jjakji, Zest is much, much, MUCH better than 95% of SC2 pros).
Not really, because of the methode of estimate and the thing it's supposed to estimate (winning the whole thing) you can't have anything like "MUCH MUCH MUCH higher chance".
As you can see they're pretty much all between 5% and 10%. Remember that 1/16 = 6.25%, so with standard deviation of the estimates this list pretty much says nothing else :
"Hey guys, they all have 1/16 chance to win, weehee". Edit : well actually herO, MC and JD percentage must actually tell something consistent about their repsective chances to win...
It doesn't really come from Aligulac itself but from the method used and the difficulty to really forecast such stuff. It just doesn't give anything meaningful.
That said I agree that ALigulac gives a lot of credit to jjakji, simply because he has been beating tons and tons of weak euro protosses. His 75,5% win rate against protoss is certainly not realistic against Zest or herO
On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote: Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.
~ 1.7 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.66 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.58 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.49 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.47 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.44 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.35 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.33 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.14 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.13 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.11 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.06 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.04 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.01 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.
maybe the most possible brackets suit herO? If Zest and soO are eliminated herO will probably win blizzconn, he has the best PvT
On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote: Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.
~ 1.7 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.66 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.58 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.49 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.47 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.44 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.35 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.33 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.14 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.13 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.11 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.06 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.04 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.01 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.
He was best SPL player and kespa cup finalist, plus he has maybe the best PvT in the world.
IMHO having him winning Blizzcon wouldn't come as a huge surprise.
On October 12 2014 15:26 Yakikorosu wrote: This list really illustrates the problem with Aligulac at the top player ratings. The idea that jjakji is more likely to win Blizzcon than Zest or Life more likely than soO is just kind of ludicrous.
Edit: Also it needs to be manually edited to give soO a 100% chance of finishing second.
Any estimation comes with an uncertainity, which is usually represented by a confidence interval.
The list doens't give those but, in all likelyhood, they are more than big enough to make the difference between Jjakji and Zest totally irrelevant.
If you wanted to rank players you would have to perform a proper statistical test of the hypothesis %win(jjakji) > %win(Zest) and I would be surprised that this test could let you conclude with a proper probability value.
Estimating is one thing, comparing is another that requires much more precision.
TL;DR : There is no problem with Aligulac, there only a problem with comparing an estimate of 7.76% with and an estimate of 7.67% : it's just not relevant.
You're kind of missing the point though: jjakji and Zest should NOT be statistically similar chances to win. Zest's chances to win should be many, many times higher than jjakji's. Watching them play over the last year, Zest is much, much, MUCH better than jjakji (no offense to jjakji, Zest is much, much, MUCH better than 95% of SC2 pros).
Well in our minds, almost everyone will agree that jjakji is probably the weakest player at blizzcon. however keep in mind that these statistics are mathematics based on ratings from aligulac. so it can only be as good as the predictions on the aligulac site. The guys working on the aligulac site are already aware of the issue of foreign Koreans being rated too highly from farming Europeans.
On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote: Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.
~ 1.7 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.66 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.58 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.49 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.47 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.44 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.35 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.33 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.14 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.13 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.11 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.06 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.04 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.01 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.
The predictions are all based on Aligulac ratings, and herO is currently the highest rated player on Aligulac out of the ones that made it to Blizzcon. It's hard to argue too strongly against herO though, sure you can say that Zest and maybe soO and INnoVation are favored over him but between his performances in SPL and KeSPA Cup recently he's got to be up there as a favorite.
It also doesn't help the best players' odds that this happens in the plurality blizzcon bracket:
On October 12 2014 13:54 Die4Ever wrote: Blizzcon 2014 Winning Chances herO has a ~ 11.37 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.09 % chance to win. MMA has a ~ 7.94 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 7.9 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 7.76 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 7.67 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.99 % chance to win. Life has a ~ 5.73 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.5 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.92 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 4.79 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.21 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.85 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win.
~ 1.7 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.66 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.58 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.49 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.47 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.44 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.35 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.33 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.15 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.14 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.13 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.11 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.08 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.06 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.05 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.04 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014
~ 1.01 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 %
Out of curiosity, how is herO the most favored player in the tournament? He's a great player and all, but I just don't see him being the best player in the world right now.
The predictions are all based on Aligulac ratings, and herO is currently the highest rated player on Aligulac out of the ones that made it to Blizzcon. It's hard to argue too strongly against herO though, sure you can say that Zest and maybe soO and INnoVation are favored over him but between his performances in SPL and KeSPA Cup recently he's got to be up there as a favorite.
It also doesn't help the best players' odds that this happens in the plurality blizzcon bracket:
#7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation
That quarter-bracket
That's supposed to be the semifinals not the RO16 matches >.>
Well, obviously the problem with aligular rating is that it takes too much from the past into account, so the current form is not really well-reflected. It also assumes that everybody goes into every match with the same attitude, but this is also not correct.
~ 34.5384 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 27.096 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 19.545 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 18.8206 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 100 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 80.47 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 61.64 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 54.07 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 54.07 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 45.93 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 45.93 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 45.93 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 38.36 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 34.54 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 34.54 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 27.09 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.53 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.53 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.53 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.83 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals.
When you post the brackets can you label them via finals outcomes like "Heart > Polt, Heart > Bomber, Bomber > Heart, and Polt > Heart"? Or edit the previous post?
On October 13 2014 08:24 Elite_ wrote: When you post the brackets can you label them via finals outcomes like "Heart > Polt, Heart > Bomber, Bomber > Heart, and Polt > Heart"?
this isn't automated, but I'm pretty sure it's like this, just doing it quickly
If Bomber wins ~ 34.5384 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
If Polt wins ~ 27.096 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
Heart wins over Bomber ~ 19.545 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
Heart wins over Polt ~ 18.8206 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
On October 13 2014 08:24 Elite_ wrote: When you post the brackets can you label them via finals outcomes like "Heart > Polt, Heart > Bomber, Bomber > Heart, and Polt > Heart"?
this isn't automated, but I'm pretty sure it's like this, just doing it quickly
If Bomber wins ~ 34.5384 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
If Polt wins ~ 27.096 % chance #1 Polt vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
Heart wins over Bomber ~ 19.545 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
Heart wins over Polt ~ 18.8206 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 San vs #12 herO #4 MC vs #13 Classic
#6 Bomber vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Polt vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
Thanks! I guess I'm cheering for a Heart > Bomber finals. That bracket gives me the least amount of players I like going up against each other at BlizzCon.
If Bomber wins ~ 63.9349 % chance #1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
If Heart wins ~ 36.0651 % chance #1 HyuN vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Bomber vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Polt vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 Zest vs #15 INnoVation ------------------
~ 100 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 100 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 100 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 100 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 63.95 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 63.95 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 63.95 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 63.95 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.05 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.05 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.05 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.05 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals.
On October 12 2014 15:26 Yakikorosu wrote: This list really illustrates the problem with Aligulac at the top player ratings. The idea that jjakji is more likely to win Blizzcon than Zest or Life more likely than soO is just kind of ludicrous.
Edit: Also it needs to be manually edited to give soO a 100% chance of finishing second.
Any estimation comes with an uncertainity, which is usually represented by a confidence interval.
The list doens't give those but, in all likelyhood, they are more than big enough to make the difference between Jjakji and Zest totally irrelevant.
If you wanted to rank players you would have to perform a proper statistical test of the hypothesis %win(jjakji) > %win(Zest) and I would be surprised that this test could let you conclude with a proper probability value.
Estimating is one thing, comparing is another that requires much more precision.
TL;DR : There is no problem with Aligulac, there only a problem with comparing an estimate of 7.76% with and an estimate of 7.67% : it's just not relevant.
i will never understand how people miss the point of prediction models and treat them as if every mistake or projection they disagree with is "proof" that there's a "problem"
if it were possible to create a perfect projection model it wouldn't be projection
On October 13 2014 12:18 Thrillz wrote: We have our bracket!
#1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation
Am I correct in thinking that the finals will be one player from top half vs one player from bottom half?
im pretty sure that's so, iirc that's how the brackets worked last year and i didnt hear anything about the brackets being changed. Hyun-Inno and Taeja-soO should be great matches, the rest could very well be stomps
On October 13 2014 12:18 Thrillz wrote: We have our bracket!
#1 Bomber vs #16 Jaedong #8 StarDust vs #9 MMA #5 MC vs #12 herO #4 Polt vs #13 Classic
#6 San vs #11 jjakji #3 Zest vs #14 Life #7 TaeJa vs #10 soO #2 HyuN vs #15 INnoVation
Am I correct in thinking that the finals will be one player from top half vs one player from bottom half?
im pretty sure that's so, iirc that's how the brackets worked last year and i didnt hear anything about the brackets being changed. Hyun-Inno and Taeja-soO should be great matches, the rest could very well be stomps
Oh god that would be so shitty. The bottom bracket is so much more disproportionately stacked with talent. Innovation, Taeja, Zest, soO? I love Bomber and Polt as much as the next guy, but Christ...
--------UPDATE Tuesday, Oct 14 1:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) Player Retrospectives! Now that the top 16 is set, it's time to look back and see how the top 16 players made it, and where a few players failed. I will be doing 1 or 2 retrospective analysis each day, with a very in depth look at each player individually and their journey through the year, in no particular order.
This is the first of a series of retrospectives I will be doing for individual players for their whole year of WCS 2014. Snute had a rough road through the WCS system and he almost made it a few times, this is probably the most complex retrospective out of anyone. Let's break it down by month.
Chances January (No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)
The first thing in January for Snute was the WCS EU qualifiers, and this did not go as smoothly for him as you would've expected. In Europe Qualifier #1, Snute lost in the round of 32 2-1 to Goody, in Qualifier #2 he lost in the round of 16 2-1 to Harstem, and then in Qualifier #3 he lost to Romson in the round of 128 (this may have been a walkover, ESL doesn't show a score). During this time (Jan 6th-14th) Snute's Blizzcon Chances went from ~ 19.7 % down to ~ 11.1 %. Snute then had to rely on the Ladder Wildcard Qualifier to make it, his last chance for the season, and he beat Verdi 2-1 in the final match to qualify. This (Jan 15th) brought his chances up to ~ 14.8 %.
Next for Snute was ASUS ROG Winter. In his round of 32 group he beat Harstem, lost to Dear, and then beat Harstem again to advance from the group, (Jan 31st) bringing his chances up to ~ 17.5 %. In his round of 16 group he lost to ForGG, beat SortOf, and lost to San, (Jan 31st) bringing his chances down to ~ 11.4 %.
Chances February WCS Points February
On February 5th he won his WCS Challenger match against uThermal 3-1, going up to ~ 13 %. February 26th I added the full year of the WCS regionals to the simulation, bringing Snute's chances down slightly to ~ 12.4 %.
Chances March WCS Points March
In March Snute played in WCS EU Premier Season 1. March 4th, he won his round of 32 group, beating HasuObs, losing to Mvp, then beating HasuObs again, bringing his chances up to ~ 20 %. He continued through Premier League by topping his round of 16 group, beating Dayshi and jjakji, (March 26th) to bring his chances up to ~ 28.9 %.
Chances April WCS Points April
Snute was busier in April, playing in 3 different tournaments.
April 11th he lost 3-1 to MMA in the WCS EU Quarterfinals, bringing his chances from ~ 24 % down to ~ 14 %.
On April 15th I added Copenhagen Games Spring and the 5 Placeholder tournaments, bringing his chances up to ~ 19.3 %. April 18th he lost in Copenhagen Games in the round of 16 to Patience twice, beating Strintern in between, bringing his chances down to ~ 15.9%.
Then it was off to DreamHack Bucharest for him, where he advanced to the playoffs April 26th to bring his chances up to ~ 21 %. On April 27th he beat HyuN in the ro16, going up to ~ 26.1 %, and then lost to Jaedong to go down to ~ 22 %, ending his DreamHack run in the quarterfinals.
Chances May WCS Points May
May 15th Snute won his ro32 group in WCS EU Premier Season 2, beating Krr and Bling, to go from ~ 28.5 % up to ~ 33.5 % chances. Now he's at a minimum of 1250 WCS Points, and a median of 2000 WCS Points.
May 29th I added the player list for HomeStoryCup 9, bringing him up to ~ 33.4 %, and a median of 2300 WCS Points. May 30th I added the DreamHack Summer player list, again bringing him up to ~ 51 %, and a median of 2500 WCS Points.
Chances June WCS Points June
June was a tough month for Snute, going from ~ 52.5 % down to ~ 10.2 % over the course of the month.
Starting with HomeStoryCup, Snute beats White-Ra and Stork in his ro32 group (June 5th) going up to ~ 54.7 %. Then in his ro16 group he beats Taeja, only to lose to MMA and the rematch to Taeja, (June 7th) getting knocked down to ~ 39.1 %.
In WCS EU Premier, Snute loses his ro16 group to ForGG and Harstem, (June 9th) going down to ~ 30 %.
Then he takes a surprisingly large blow as San and StarDust secure their spots in WCS EU Premier Season 3, with Snute's median WCS Points dropping from 2075 down to 1875, (June 11th) going down to ~ 16.8 %.
His bad luck streak continues in DreamHack Summer as he loses his ro32 group to jjakji and HerO, (June 15th) going down to ~ 15.9 %, with his minimum still WCS Points at 1250 since May 15th.
Chances July
July 7th I added Red Bull Atlanta, IEM Shenzhen, Gfinity G3, and the DreamHack Valencia player list, bringing Snute's chances up to ~ 23.9 %.
In IEM Shenzhen he won his ro16 group by beating Stork and TRUE, but losing to Innovation. (July 17th) This brought his chances up to ~ 27.9 %. Then he lost in the quarterfinals to Jaedong 3-2, bringing him down to ~ 22.5 %, with a new minimum WCS Points of 1625, and a median of 2325.
Chances August WCS Points August
August was Snute's busiest month with Gfinity, WCS EU, Red Bull Detroit, and IEM Toronto.
In Gfinity he beat Grubby and jjakji in the ro12 group, and then MMA 2-1 in the quarterfinals, (Aug 3rd) to bring his chances up to ~ 25.2 %. But then he lost to his teammate Bunny in the semifinals 3-1, sending Snute back down to ~ 23.9 %.
August 19th, Snute lost his WCS EU Premier Season 3 round of 32 group, first beating Patience but then losing to Miniraser and StarDust, sending his chances down to ~ 17.9 %.
In Red Bull Detroit on August 23rd, Snute beat CatZ in the ro16 to go up to ~ 26.1 %, and then lost to StarDust in the quarterfinals, putting him at ~ 12 %.
August 29th was the IEM Toronto Open Bracket, where Snute beat herO, lost to Life, and then beat herO again, together for a 4-2 score over herO in those insanely grueling games, bringing Snute to ~ 18.5 %. Then Snute continued to impress in his ro16 group where he beat Masa and then sOs, going up to ~ 28.6 % now. Against Flash in the quarterfinals, on August 30th, Snute put up a great fight but lost 2-3 during Flash's hottest streak yet in SC2, going down to ~ 14.7 %.
Snute finishes August with a minimum of 2550 WCS Points, and a median of 2550 WCS Points.
Chances September WCS Points September
On September 1st, the DreamHack Moscow player list is set, with Snute confirmed it brings him up to ~ 37.6 %, and a median of 2675 WCS Points. September 13th in DreamHack Moscow ro32 group, he beats MindelVK and HyuN to advance to the playoffs and go up to ~ 41 %. September 14th, he beats LiveZerg in the ro16 and Daisy in the quarterfinals to go up to ~ 67.3 %. But then loses to eventual champion MMA, going down to ~ 47.2 %.
At this point, Snute is at a minimum of 2925 WCS Points, and a median of 3050, however he does not manage to win any more points for the rest of this year.
September 14th, Red Bull still has not yet announced anything regarding WCS Points for Washington, so to be safe I change it to only have a 50% chance to give points, this brings Snute up to ~ 75.1 % because sOs could pass him if it does give points. September 15th, it is said that Red Bull Washington will not be giving WCS Points, this change brings Snute up to ~ 80.7 % Blizzcon chances, the highest chances he got in the year. September 16th, the WCS Points for Red Bull Washington are announced, giving sOs the chance to pass Snute again, bringing Snute's chances down to ~ 69.5 %.
September 17th, in the GSL quarterfinals, Cure beats Solar and Innovation beats DongRaeGu, Solar getting knocked out helps Snute slightly more than Innovation winning hurt him, Snute's chances are now at the highest legitimate point in the year at ~ 70.8 %.
On September 18th the DreamHack Stockholm player list is set, this incredibly strong list of players coming for their last chance at Blizzcon brings Snute's chances down to ~ 53.5 %.
In Red Bull Washington, sOs loses on September 20th, bringing Snute back up to ~ 63 %.
September 23rd, MMA wins his WCS EU Premier ro16 group and brings Snute down to ~ 58 %. In the GSL semifinals, soO beats Zest 4-3 after being down 1-3, bringing Snute's chances further down to ~ 46.9 % on September 24th.
On September 26th, Snute loses in his DreamHack Stockholm ro32 group after beating Solar, losing to jjakji and Solar in the rematch, going down to ~ 11.7 %.
Right now Snute has no more chances to gain WCS Points and is stuck at 2925 points. His only chance is to hope that no one passed him. If Pigbaby makes the finals of WCS AM, Snute is out, if any of ForGG/HerO/Innovation/Bunny/Scarlett/Golden/Heart wins their WCS region, Snute is out.
October 4th Innovation wins the GSL 4-2 over soO, knocking Snute out of the running.
If Innovation had not won the GSL, with MMA winning WCS EU and Bomber winning WCS AM, Snute would've made it as the #16 seed facing Bomber in the first round of the WCS Global Finals. If Snute had gotten 4th place in DreamHack Stockholm, even with Innovation winning GSL, then he would've been the #14 seed facing Zest.
Come back tomorrow for the next retrospective! It will probably be shorter and simpler than this one since Snute had a very crazy year lol.
Zest kind of made WCS look easy. I mean just look at his graph for the year. He was actually over 99% for more than half the year. He has 5,800 WCS Points, by far the most WCS Points of any GSL player, with soO in 2nd place (lol) down by 2,150 WCS Points. Let's review how he got to being the #1 GSL player for the year.
Chances January (No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)
In January he qualified for Code A by beating Impact and Creator, after losing to his nemesis Cure. Then on January 22nd in Code A, he beat Innovation and Stork, taking him up to ~ 11.8 % Blizzcon Chances.
Chances February WCS Points February
On February 7th, he won his Code S ro32 group beating Trap and Leenock 4-1, going up to ~ 21.1 % Blizzcon Chances.
On February 26th I added the full year of WCS simulations, putting Zest at ~ 28.9 %.
Chances March WCS Points March
In his Code S ro16 group, on March 6th he lost to Maru and then beat Soulkey and Dear, with a 5-4 score overall, going up to ~ 39 %. Then in the quarterfinals he beat sOs 3-0 to go up to ~ 53 % on March 19th. On March 26th in the semifinals he beat Rain 4-2 to get him into the finals and up to ~ 73 % Blizzcon Chances.
Chances April WCS Points April
April 5th was the GSL finals, Zest vs soO. At this point, Zest was at ~ 78.9 % Blizzcon chances. With a ~ 66 % chance to win the match that was expected to put him at ~ 99.3 % if he won, and only ~ 37.6 % had he lost. soO won the 1st game, and then they traded games back and forth until it was 3-3, and Zest won the final game to take the 1st place 4-3. This shot Zest up to ~ 99.3 %, and he would not fall below 97% for the rest of the year. Meanwhile soO fell down to ~ 14.5 %, showing just how big the difference is between 1st and 2nd place in terms of WCS Points.
April 15th I added Copenhagen Games Spring and 5 Placeholder tournaments, putting Zest at ~ 98.1 %.
On April 24th, Zest began his run in the GSL Global Championship, which he was seeded into for his GSL finals appearance. To continue his streak he went 2-0 over Parting and 2-1 over MMA, putting him at ~ 99.1 %. On April 26th, the GSL Global Championship concluded with Zest going 3-2 over soO in the semifinals, and 4-3 over Parting in the finals, after being down 1-3. This puts Zest at ~ 99.7 % chances, and a minimum WCS Points of 2450.
April 30th he started the 2nd season of GSL for the year, beating TAiLS and Dark both 2-0, putting him at ~ 99.9 %.
Chances May WCS Points May
May brought down his chances a little with the announcement of the player lists for HomeStoryCup and DreamHack Summer, since Zest was attending neither, putting him at ~ 98.3 % for the end of the month. But he kept the same 2550 minimum WCS Points for the whole month.
Chances June WCS Points June
On June 6th the GSL continues with Zest in the ro16, advancing with a 2-0 over Innovation and a 2-1 over Soulkey, putting Zest way up at ~ 99.99%, and a minimum WCS Points of 2900. On June 13th, Zest's streak finally comes to an end as he loses in the quarterfinals to TRUE 1-3.
Chances July WCS Points July
On July 7th I added Red Bull Atlanta, IEM Shenzhen, Gfinity G3, and the DreamHack Valencia player list, bringing Zest down to ~ 99.3 %.
On July 17th in the IEM Shenzhen ro16 group, Zest beat jjakji 2-1 and San 2-0. Then on the 19th he lost to TaeJa in the quarterfinals 0-3, putting Zest at ~ 99.9 % chances.
Chances August WCS Points August
In August, GSL Season 3 started up again. On the 14th, Zest beat Hurricane 2-0, lost to Rain 1-2, and beat Rogue 2-0 to advance from his round of 32 group. Then on the 27th in the round of 16, he beat Soulkey 2-0, lost 1-2 to Cure, and then beat Soulkey 2-1 to advance to the quarterfinals yet again, securing his ~ 100 % chances which would remain for the rest of the year, with a minimum WCS Points of 3925.
In IEM Toronto, on the 29th he advanced from his ro16 group, first losing to Taeja, but then beating Polt and Bunny. Then on the 31st he beat Yoda 3-0, then Life 3-1 in the semifinals, before finally losing to Flash in the finals 1-4, giving Zest a minimum WCS Points of 4300.
Chances September WCS Points September
In the KeSPA Cup from September 11th to the 14th, he beat Pigbaby 3-0, sOs 3-2, Classic 3-1, and then won in the finals 4-1 over CJ herO to bring his minimum WCS Points up to 5550.
Back in GSL, he played the quarterfinals against Rain on the 19th and won 3-0. Then he played against soO again in the semifinals on the 24th, but soO was finally able to beat Zest 4-3 after Zest was up 3-1. With this loss Zest ended his year with 5800 WCS Points and a #3 seed overall. He will be facing Life in the first round of the WCS Global Finals on November 1st-2nd.
This was actually a weak year for Life compared to how he was doing before. He "only" got 1 premier tournament win this year in DreamHack Bucharest, while he got 3 last year (IEM New York, MLG Winter, Iron Squid 2), and 3 at the end of 2012 (GSL Blizzard Cup, MLG Fall, GSL Season 4). With only 50 more WCS Points than the #16 seed, Jaedong, and 325 more points than #17, Snute, he barely was able to qualify for the WCS Global Finals as the #14 seed. Too bad that puts him against Zest, probably the worst draw he could've gotten out of any of the players going to Blizzcon, and I think he agrees.
Chances January (No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)
Life is our first player that didn't need to play in the WCS Qualifiers this year, because he won his Challenger League bracket last year he was already qualified for season 1 of Code A. This allowed him to start with a bit higher chances than the others with ~ 27.3 %, while Snute started with ~ 19.7 %, and Zest with ~ 2.4 %. Life started his WCS year on January 22nd, advancing from his Code A group by beating Paralyze, losing to Squirtle, and then beating Paralyze again, moving up to ~ 36 % Blizzcon Chances.
On January 31st, Life played in the group stages of ASUS ROG Winter, losing to Welmu, but then beating Kane, Solar, and Jaedong to advance for the playoffs (played February 1st). This brought his chances up to ~ 42.4 %.
Chances February WCS Points February
On February 1st he played in the quarterfinals of ASUS ROG against his brutal nemesis San and lost 0-3, bringing his chances down to ~ 31.3 %. Maybe Zest is a better draw for Life than San, with his 10-0 record over Life, would've been?
On February 26th, in his Code S round of 32 group, he beat Yonghwa and Dark, and I also added the full year of WCS Simulations, putting Life at ~ 35.3 %, and a minimum of 500 WCS Points, and a median of 1400 WCS Points.
Chances March WCS Points March
On March 5th, Life continued his strong Code S run by advancing from his round of 16 group, beating Roro, losing to sOs, and then beating Roro again, going up to ~ 50 % chances.
Life then went to the IEM World Championship on March 15th. He beat Rogue in the round of 16 3-1, and then lost to Taeja 1-3 in the quarterfinals, putting him at ~ 67.6 %.
March 21st Life beat Maru in the GSL quarterfinals 3-2, bringing him up to ~ 82.6 %. Then on the 28th he lost to soO in the semifinals 3-4, going down to ~ 57.5 %, with a minimum WCS Points of 1550, and a median of 2050.
Chances April WCS Points April
In April, Life only had Dreamhack Bucharest to play in. On the 26th he advanced to the playoffs beating MoonBeam, Harstem, and Lilbow twice, losing only to Ryung, putting him at ~ 68.4 %. On the 27th he beat Leenock in the round of 16 2-1, and StarDust in the quarterfinals 2-1, going up to ~ 83.2 %. In the semifinals he beat Innovation 2-1, and in the finals he beat Impact 3-0, ending up at ~ 97.6 %, 2300 minimum WCS Points, and a median of 3075 WCS Points.
Chances May WCS Points May
In May, Life only played in his GSL Code S round of 32 group, beating Rogue and Classic on the 9th, going up to ~ 98.9 %.
Chances June WCS Points June
June 4th, Life lost his ro16 Code S group. In season 1 of Code A, he beat Paralyze twice to knock him out and take the Code S spot for himself, this time Paralyze got revenge beating him, then Life beat Rain, and then Paralyze beat Life again. This put Life at ~ 90 %, with a minimum WCS Points of ~ 90 %. june 4 code s ro16 lost to paralyze, beat rain, lost to paralyze ~ 90 %, min points 2500, median 2875
June 20th to the 22nd was MLG Anaheim, where Life played in the open bracket. On the 20th he beat Thorzain, and lost to DongRaeGu, ending up at ~ 86.8 %. On the 21st he played in the losers' bracket, beatting Apocalypse, Choya, and Alicia, to go up to ~ 95.7 %. On the 22nd he beat Illusion and Major, but then lost to Scarlett, ending up at ~ 93.3 % Blizzcon Chances, with 2625 minimum WCS Points and a 2900 median.
Chances July WCS Points July
On July 7th I added Red Bull Atlanta, IEM Shenzhen, Gfinity G3, and the DreamHack Valencia player list, bringing Life down to ~ 80.74 %.
July 16th and 17th was IEM Shenzhen for Life. On the 16th, in the open bracket, he beat Daisy, lost to Liquid HerO, and then beat Daisy again, ending at ~ 90.4 %. The 17th was Life's ro16 group, where he lost to Jim, beat MMA, and then lost to Taeja, going down to ~ 83.9 %.
In Life's GSL Code A group for Season 3, he lost to Stats and Bunny on the 24th, ending up at ~ 74.6 % chances, a minimum WCS Points of 2750, and a median also at 2750.
Chances August WCS Points August
At the end of August, Life had a good run at IEM Toronto from the 28th to the 31st. Starting on the 28th in the "Dual Tournament" aka open bracket, Life beat Stardust, Revival, and Snute, going up to ~ 85.2 %. On the 29th in his ro16 group, he beat Scarlett and then MC to go up to ~ 95.4 %. Then he beat First in the quarterfinals with a 3-0 score to go up to ~ 99.4 %. On the 31st he lost to Zest 1-3 in the semifinals, ending up at ~ 99 %, with a minimum of 3125 WCS Points. Was this match a preview of what is to come in the WCS Global Finals?
Chances September WCS Points September
In September, Life had his last chance to earn WCS Points, DreamHack Stockholm. If he didn't get any points here then he would've ended up as #17, missing out on the Global Finals by 1 spot. DreamHack Stockholm was also an exceptionally hard DreamHack due to many players trying to get their last WCS Points in. On the 26th Life beat Oz, lost to MMA, and beat Oz again in Group Stage 3 to advance to the playoffs, putting him at ~ 99.4 %, and setting his minimum WCS Points to the final value of 3250. Then on the 27th he lost to CJ herO putting him at ~ 95.8 %. With no more chances to earn WCS Points, Life would have to leave his qualification in other players' hands. Luckily for Life, he wouldn't have to stress for long, thanks to Solar.
Later that same day, Solar was facing Jaedong in the round of 8. Here is what WCS Predictor said about this match for Life. ~ 48.45 % of the time Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 100 %
~ 51.55 % of the time Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 91.91 %
And Solar did win, 2-1 over Jaedong, and even went on to beat soO in the finals. If Jaedong had won this match then Life would've had to worry about players like Scarlett, ForGG, Pigbaby, HerO, and Bunny in WCS EU and AM. As an example - ~ 0.55 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 95.82 % to ~ 0 %
Of course we know now he would've qualified no matter what Jaedong had done, since the players that would've threatened him didn't win anyways.
On October 15 2014 12:21 Die4Ever wrote: He was actually over 99% for more than half the year. He has 5,800 WCS Points, by far the most WCS Points of any GSL player, with soO in 2nd place (lol) down by 2,150 WCS Points.
Hahaha, I hadn't even noticed that soO was second. Oh god.
jjakji, the #11 seed, with 3475 WCS Points. Wait what? I've actually seen people wondering how he got so many WCS Points, and even I wasn't sure where he got them all. Before we go into the full retrospective, let's see where he got his points from. (sorted by points) 750 WCS EU Season 1 500 DreamHack Moscow 400 IEM World Championship
125 DreamHack Bucharest 125 DreamHack Summer 125 IEM Shenzhen 125 DreamHack Stockholm 100 WCS EU Season 2 100 WCS EU Season 3
Good thing he went to so many tournaments, it all adds up, 550 points less and it would've been Snute qualifying instead of jjakji.
Chances January
January 4th jjakji qualified for WCS EU on first try, beating Exehn, Markus, Monty, RusZerg, SortOf, losing to Grubby, beating BabyKnight, to start off the year high at ~ 69.5 %.
jjakji played in IEM Sao Paulo from the 30th to February 1st. On the 30th in the round of 16 he beat WM, lost to Bomber, and beat puCK, going up to ~ 74.4 % Blizzcon Chances. On the 31st in the quarterfinals he beat Polt 3-0, going up to ~ 84.8 %. February 1st he lost to MC 1-3 in the semifinals, ending his run with a still strong ~ 73.2 % Blizzcon Chances. Let's count how many times jjakji loses to MC in this retrospective, that's once.
Chances February WCS Points February
February 6th, jjakji started his strongest WCS EU season by far this year, beating HappyZerG 3-0 in Challenger, although his Blizzcon Chances actually went down to ~ 69.8 % because of the IEM Cologne player list. His minimum WCS Points is now at 475.
In IEM Cologne, jjakji advanced from his round of 16 group, beating Dear, losing to Patience, and then beating Dear again. The in the quarterfinals he lost to Rain 1-3, ending up at ~ 88.4 % chances on February 16th, and a minimum WCS Points of 725.
In WCS EU Premier league, jjakji won his round of 32 group on the 20th, beating LiveZerg and Nerchio, going up to ~ 99.4 % chaces, and a minimum of 825 WCS Points.
On February 26th I added full year of WCS to the simulation, putting jjakji at ~ 76.2 %, a minimum of 975 WCS Points, and a median of 2275.
Chances March WCS Points March
In the IEM World Championships, on March 14th, jjakji beat Revival 3-2 in the round of 16 with a crazy comeback win. Maybe this will jog your memory. This put jjakji at ~ 92.2 %. On March 15th jjakji lost in the quarterfinals to sOs 0-3, putting him at ~ 86.6 %, with a minimum of 1375 WCS Points, and a median of 2575.
On March 26th jjakji continued his best run in WCS EU, beating Grubby, losing to Snute, and then beating Dayshi in his round of 16 group, going up to ~ 91.5 % Blizzcon Chances, and a minimum WCS Points of 1675, and a median of 2725.
Chances April WCS Points April
On April 6th I added the GSL Global Championship and 5 DreamHacks, putting jjakji at ~ 86.1 %.
On April 10th in WCS EU, jjakji beat Vortix in the quarterfinals 3-0, going up to ~ 96.1 %. On April 12th, he lost to MC (2nd time) 1-3 in the semifinals, ending at ~ 90.4 %, a minimum WCS Points of 1925, and a median of 2800.
On April 15th I added Copenhagen Games Spring and the 5 Placeholder tournaments, bringing his chances to ~ 89.1 %.
In DreamHack Bucharest on April 26th, jjakji advanced to the playoffs after beating DaZe, TLO, then losing to uThermal, beating Serral, and then beating uThermal for revenge. This put jjakji at ~ 95.5 %. The next day, jjakji lost in the round of 16 to StarDust 1-2, putting him at ~ 91.5 %, 2050 minimum WCS Points, and 2975 median WCS Points.
Chances May WCS Points May
In May, jjakji lost a ton of chances, first losing on the 20th in his WCS EU round of 32 group against Harstem and Yoda, going down to ~ 72.1 %, then because of the addition of the KeSPA Cup on the 23rd which he just missed out on due to his loss, putting him down to ~ 64.4 %. Going from the ~ 91.5 % we saw earlier, that's a loss of 27.1 %. May wasn't all bad for him though. With the addition of the HomeStory Cup 9 and DreaHack Summer player lists he went back up to ~ 83.5 %, with a minimum of 2050 WCS Points and a median of 3000.
Chances June WCS Points June
HomeStory Cup 9 started on June 5th, where jjakji won his round of 32 group over HeRoMaRinE and TargA, going up to ~ 84.9 %. On the 7th he won his round of 16 group over MaNa and Armani, going up to ~ 91.2 %. And on the 8th he lost in the quarterfinals to MC (3rd time) 0-3 this time, putting him at ~ 87.1 %, aminimum WCS Points of 2300, and a median of 2950.
On June 14th and 15th in DreamHack Summer, jjakji advanced to the playoffs after beating Avokado, MarineLorD, Dayshi, and Snute, putting him at ~ 84.7 %. On the 15th he lost in the round of 16 to MaNa 0-2, finishing at ~ 81.9 %, a minimum WCS Points of 2425, and a median of 2875.
Chances July WCS Points July
On July 16th in IEM Shenzhen, jjakji played in the open bracket, beating Vaisravana, Check, and TRUE, going up to ~ 94.9 %. On the 17th in the round of 16 group he lost to Zest, beat Illusion, and then lost to San, going down to ~ 89.8 % chances.
July 29th, he beat HeRoMaRinE 3-0 to get back into WCS EU Premier, going up to ~ 95.2 %, with a minimum WCS Points of 2600, and a median of 3400.
Chances August WCS Points August
On August 2nd in Gfinity G3, in the round of 12 group he lost to Snute and beat Grubby, which was enough to advance from the 3 player group. Then on the 3rd he lost in the quarterfinals to MC (4th time) 1-2, putting him at ~ 96.5 %, with a minimum of 2850 WCS Points, and a median of 3250.
Chances September WCS Points September
On September 3rd, jjakji lost his WCS EU round of 32 group to Harstem and Vortix, leaving him with only 2 DreamHacks to get points from. This put him at ~ 72.6 %, with a minimum of 2850 WCS Points, and a median at the same 2850 points, which would've been 75 points short of making it to the WCS Global Finals.
On the 11th, jjakji's chances went down a bit as Classic and sOs won their matches. If both Classic and sOs had both qualified for Blizzcon then jjakji could've been knocked out considering he only had 2850 WCS Points at the time.
sep 13-14 dh moscow On the 13th jjakji advanced to the DreamHack Moscow playoffs beating Rose, KpeHgeJlb, Revolver, and MMA 2-1, going up to ~ 91.9 %, and a minimum of 2975 WCS Points, which we know now would've been 50 more points than Snute and thus enough to qualify for Blizzcon. On the 14th he beat First 2-0 in the round of 16, in the quarterfinals he beat Happy 2-1, in the semifinals he beat TRUE 2-0, and then in the finals he lost to MMA 1-3 for a 2nd place. This put him at ~ 99.99 %, with a minimum of 3350 WCS Points, enough for the #12 seed, and a median of 3475 points which is actually where he ended up.
In DreamHack Stockholm, jjakji was pretty much just playing for money and bonus points for seeding, already being at ~ 99.99 %. On the 26th he advanced to the playoffs beating Autumn, YoDa, SpaceMarine, and Snute. The on the 27th he lost in the round of 16 to Patience 0-2, enough to get an extra 125 WCS Points, securing him ~ 100 % chances, and his final WCS Points of 3465.
So we see that jjakji made his run to Blizzcon not with a spectacular championship, but with consistency and lots of plane tickets. It wasn't the most comfortable qualification, dropping below 70% in January, February, May, and September, but he made it.
INnoVation, the once best Terran in the world, didn't show as much consistency throughout the year as our other players, but instead he had a strong peak at the end. In fact he spent most of the year below 30% chances, he didn't even make it above 40% once until the end of September when he beat Cure in the GSL semifinals. But now could he be making a comeback to become the best Terran in the world again? There are many strong Terrans to contend with for that title at Blizzcon, but first let's see how he got there.
Chances January (No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)
Because INnoVation was already seeded into Code A from last year, he started off around 30 % Blizzcon Chances. However that would change as he played in an incredibly hard Code A group. On January 22nd, INnoVation lost to herO and Zest, advancing in last place. This brought him from ~ 29.4 % down to ~ 1.1 %, keep in mind this was before I had the full year of WCS simulations in though.
Chances February WCS Points February (The blue line is minimum WCS Points, the black line is the median.)
In February he went to IEM Cologne, hopefully making up for his loss in Code A. On the 15th he beat HeRoMaRinE and MC in the ro16 groups. Then on the 16th he lost to Liquid HerO 0-3 in quarterfinals, bringing INnoVation down to ~ 0 % with just counting the first season.
On the 26th I added full year of WCS simulations, bringing INnoVation up to ~ 8.3 %. Considering he wasn't qualified for GSL at all this seems like a fair starting point.
Chances March WCS Points March
In the GSL qualifiers on March 26th, he beat Bulldozer, lost to ByuL, and beat Sorry to qualify for GSL, going up to ~ 9.4 %, with a minimum WCS Points of 350, and a median of 650.
Chances April WCS Points April
On April 6th I added the GSL Global Championship and 5 DreamHacks, bringing INoVation up to ~ 11.2 %.
On the 9th in Code A, he beat Dark and Sora, going up to ~ 16.3 %, 450 minimum WCS Points, and a median of 1100.
INnoVation finished April with DreamHack Bucharest. He advanced to the bracket stage on the 26th after beating Ancestor, MorroW, HuK, and Snute, putting him at ~ 20.1 %. On the 27th he beat Welmu in the round of 16 and Bunny in quarterfinals, going up to ~ 25.4 %. Then he lost to Life in the semifinals, going down to ~ 20 %, a minimum of 825 WCS Points, and a median 1525.
Chances May WCS Points May
May 23rd, Innovation won his Code S round of 32 group, first losing to herO, then beating Squirtle and Leenock, going up to ~ 29.5 %.
Chances June WCS Points June
On June 6th INnoVation lost in a tough Code S round of 16 group, losing to Zest again, beating Shine, then losing to Soulkey, going way down to ~ 13.37 %, with a minimum of 1025 WCS Points, and a median of 1475.
Chances July WCS Points July
July 17th in the IEM Shenzhen round of 16, INnoVation won his group beating TRUE and Snute. Then on the 19th he lost in the quarterfinals to Solar 0-3, going down to ~ 10.2 %, with a minimum of 1275 WCS Points, and a median of 1625.
Now all INnoVation had left was the last season of GSL. From this point in time it was expected that a 2nd place in Code S would only put him at ~ 15.6 % Blizzcon Chances, while a 1st place would put him at ~ 99.8 %. He really needed to win the whole thing. With only 1275 WCS Points before his Code A match on July 23rd, he was way behind. For comparison, on July 22nd, Zest had 3150 WCS Points, Jaedong had 2550, Snute had 1625, and sOs had 2300.
On July 23rd in Code A, INnoVation beats Hurricane and Ruin to advance from his group 4-0, going up to ~ 12.7 %.
Chances August WCS Points August
Now in Code S, on August 7th he advanced from his round of 32 group, losing to Myungsik, then beating Paralyze and Myungsik, going up to ~ 17.7 %, with a minimum of 1425 WCS Points, and a median of 1975.
Chances September WCS Points September
In September is where INnoVation really turned it on. First in his Code S round of 16 group on September 3rd, beating Stats and Parting, going up to ~ 18.8 %, 1725 minimum points, 1975 median points. On the 17th in the quarterfinals, he beat DongRaeGu 3-0, continuing his rise to ~ 29.2 %, 1975 minimum points, and 2225 median points. Then in the semifinals on the 26th beating Cure 4-3, going up to ~ 58 %, 2225 minimum points, and 3225 median.
If INoVation would've lost the finals against soO, he'd have gone down to 0% Blizzcon Chances. On Oct 4th, INnoVation finally won a GSL, beating soO 4-2, and going up to ~ 92.1 %, with his final 3225 WCS Points.
Now if Bunny/ForGG wins WCS EU AND HerO/Pigbaby/Scarlett wins WCS AM, then Innovation is out. If Jaedong had beaten Solar at Dreamhack Stockholm, then any 1 of those players winning would've knocked Innovation out.
Shortly after INnoVation won the GSL, he was secured his place when both Bunny and ForGG lost in the WCS EU quarterfinals. And with that, INnoVation was the 2nd to last player to secure his spot in the WCS Global Finals, with the last player being Jaedong. INnoVation is the #15 seed, and will be facing the #2 seed HyuN in a best of 5 in the first round of the WCS Global Finals. Can INnoVation prove himself to be the best Terran in the world, or will he lose in the first round like last year?
Innovation making it into blizzcon last minute is like what Dear pulled last year, but not as incredible since Dear had to win both WCS KR and the Season Final.
That jjakji giff is priceless. Although many would consider him the weakest player out of the 16, that game vs Revival was quite memorable.
jjakji's road to Blizzcon is why he's highly rated in aligulac. He pretty much won EU qualifier after EU qualifier for all sorts of IEMs, Dreamhacks and other smaller tournaments. Even advancing 2nd in a 2 Korean, 2 foreigner group stage would already secure him WCS 125-250 points depending on the tournament's tier. The qualifier run would give him WCS points and a higher aligulac rating even if he does nothing of note in the actual tournament itself.
EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/NIV5gXi.png)
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HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 6050
Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5800
Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5375
Ourk has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.15 %
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But why is his rating at 1855 instead of 1877? When did you pull the ratings from Aligulac ?
vote for me here in group H 
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