EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 28
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Lazzi
Switzerland1923 Posts
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Torrefy
41 Posts
That would put Jaedong at 16th. After that he can be jumped by either soO or Rain if they make the GSL finals. Also by HerO, Pigbaby, Bunny, INnoVation, Scarlett, ForGG, Welmu, Heart, HuK or Golden if they win their respective WCS regions. Scarlett could also tie him by taking second in WCS and winning Red Bull. Each of these individually may be pretty unlikely (although a few of them are actually somewhat likely) but the likelihood of NONE of these happening is also pretty low. Of course players like soO, Rain, sOs and INnoVation deserve to be in there over Jaedong, especially considering the form he's shown for a lot of the year, but I'd still like to see Jaedong make it. Basically he either needs to get it together and squeeze out of his group (although even going out in third place and picking up 100 points would eliminate a few of these situations), or EG better ship him out to Stockholm if they want him at Blizzcon. edit* Pigbaby actually only needs to make the semi-finals. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 18 2014 04:35 Lazzi wrote: But... where's Pigbaby? He has at least 2000 points from his win in WCS NA but he isn't between soO and Inno. Innovation is at 1975 points, Pigbaby is at 2200, but Innovation has a ~29% chance to win GSL while Pigbaby only has a ~2.3% chance to win WCS AM. Part of this is because Innovation is already way farther in the tournament being in the semifinals instead of the ro16 so he has less matches he needs to win, also Pigbaby is in the group of death, and Innovation has a really good Aligulac rating. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 18 2014 04:36 Torrefy wrote: I think Jaedong is in trouble if he doesn't make it out of his group, especially if he falls out in last place. Which is very possible considering his group. MMA is very likely to make it out of his group and would jump him. sOs just needs to pick up ANY points from Red Bull or Stockholm (assuming he goes, which I think he is.) Same with Snute, just making the RO.16 at Stockholm is enough. That would put Jaedong at 16th. After that he can be jumped by either soO or Rain if they make the GSL finals. Also by HerO, Pigbaby, Bunny, INnoVation, Scarlett, ForGG, Welmu, Heart, HuK or Golden if they win their respective WCS regions. Scarlett could also tie him by taking second in WCS and winning Red Bull. Each of these individually may be pretty unlikely (although a few of them are actually somewhat likely) but the likelihood of NONE of these happening is also pretty low. Of course players like soO, Rain, sOs and INnoVation deserve to be in there over Jaedong, especially considering the form he's shown for a lot of the year, but I'd still like to see Jaedong make it. Basically he either needs to get it together and squeeze out of his group (although even going out in third place and picking up 100 points would eliminate a few of these situations), or EG better ship him out to Stockholm if they want him at Blizzcon. yep ~ 56.89 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 68.56 % ~ 0.43 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 8.5 % ~ 0.43 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Cure gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 8.5 % ~ 0.16 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier and Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 11.17 % ~ 0.59 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Cure gets 4th in GSL S3 Code S and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 11.3 % ~ 0.59 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 11.3 % ~ 0.14 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 11.35 % ~ 0.27 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington and Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 12.73 % ~ 0.75 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 13.11 % ~ 0.38 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington and MMA gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 13.39 % ~ 0.49 % of the time Jaedong loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro16 and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and soO gets 2nd in GSL S3 Code S and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro16 This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.11 % to ~ 13.58 % | ||
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Torrefy
41 Posts
On September 18 2014 04:38 Die4Ever wrote: Innovation is at 1975 points, Pigbaby is at 2200, but Innovation has a ~29% chance to win GSL while Pigbaby only has a ~2.3% chance to win WCS AM. Part of this is because Innovation is already way farther in the tournament being in the semifinals instead of the ro16 so he has less matches he needs to win, also Pigbaby is in the group of death, and Innovation has a really good Aligulac rating. That is true, and INno certainly should be above Pigbaby. However it's hard to believe that Pigbaby's chances could be so far below the likes of for example ForGG or Yoda as to not even get him into the top 25. Especially since he doesn't even have to win to give himself a reasonable chance, getting second would give him 3000 points and a decent possibility of making it. ForGG or Yoda or Scarlett or Bunny, etc would have to actually win their WCS regions to make it. That counts for something. I guess the group of death factor must be really coming into play hard here. | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 18 2014 04:46 Torrefy wrote: That is true, and INno certainly should be above Pigbaby. However it's hard to believe that Pigbaby's chances could be so far below the likes of for example ForGG or Yoda as to not even get him into the top 25. Especially since he doesn't even have to win to give himself a reasonable chance, getting second would give him 3000 points and a decent possibility of making it. ForGG or Yoda or Scarlett or Bunny, etc would have to actually win their WCS regions to make it. That counts for something. I guess the group of death factor must be really coming into play hard here. Pigbaby also has a pretty low aligulac rating. And Scarlett, Yoda, and Bunny are in the ro8 already. And yea the group of death factor, he only has a ~36.5% chance to advance from the group, while the other players you mention are I think all above 50% chances to win their next match. Starts in   Pigbaby must win this!This match is important for  Jaedong!TaeJa, HyuN, Jaedong, Pigbaby in WCS AM S3 Premier -  TaeJa is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 64.44 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 35.56 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.------------------------------------------------- - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 55.92 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 44.08 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 83.29 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 43.12 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %.~ 56.88 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 70.63 %.------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 4.65 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 36.51 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 12.52 %.~ 63.49 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.12 %. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 18 2014 04:52 opisska wrote: The answer to the question "which foreigners could qualify" just got quite a bit more simple. Snute ~ 49.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.58 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.78 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.63 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.19 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.77 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.09 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.73 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.64 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.13 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.54 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.06 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.52 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
On September 18 2014 04:53 Die4Ever wrote: Snute ~ 49.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.58 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.78 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 19.63 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 3.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.19 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.77 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.09 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.73 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.64 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.13 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.54 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.06 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.52 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.02 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.91 % chance overall. TLO ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. This is after TLO lost his group? How the hell does he qualify?  | ||
The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 18 2014 04:58 opisska wrote: This is after TLO lost his group? How the hell does he qualify? Wins dreamhack, wins placement tournament, something like that? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 18 2014 04:58 opisska wrote: This is after TLO lost his group? How the hell does he qualify? well so far he's only qualified 2 times out of 4 million samples lol, it's literally half of a 1 in a million chance, so it's very rare and almost certainly includes the placeholder tournament and dreamhack, I force the %s to round in such a way that if it's not 0% it won't show 0%, and if it's not 100% then it won't show 100% even if it's really close | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
On September 18 2014 05:05 opisska wrote: Ok thanks, makes sense. I forgot you still have the placeholder (not a critique, I think it is a good idea). I just looked at the results today (not watching games) and i really lol'd that both of the remotely promising foreigners got booted together. Yea, we're getting pretty close though I think I'm gonna turn it down a bit. Right now the placeholder is at 25%, I'm thinking after WCS AM tonight I'm gonna bring it down to just 5%. | ||
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argonautdice
Canada2719 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17718 Posts
Also added Huk and Bunny to DreamHack Stockholm, and reduced the Placeholder Tournament down to just 5%. Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.53 % of the time 2,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 1.01 % of the time 2,750 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 61.14 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 64.36 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (was at ~ 41.17 % in yesterday's post) ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,550 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (3,575 was the lowest WCS Points with 100% chances in yesterday's post) Biggest winners and losers from yesterday's post. Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 12.95 %, going from ~ 17.88 % to ~ 30.83 % Scarlett went up by ~ 9.86 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 20.47 % Pigbaby went up by ~ 6.39 %, going from ~ 4.55 % to ~ 10.94 % Bunny went up by ~ 5.44 %, going from ~ 10.46 % to ~ 15.9 % herO went up by ~ 5.15 %, going from ~ 90.93 % to ~ 96.08 %+ Show Spoiler [More] + MMA went up by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 50.42 % to ~ 55.18 % HerO went up by ~ 3.68 %, going from ~ 2.55 % to ~ 6.24 % YoDa went up by ~ 2.3 %, going from ~ 5.89 % to ~ 8.19 % Life went up by ~ 1.58 %, going from ~ 97.86 % to ~ 99.44 % Heart went up by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 5.34 % to ~ 6.89 % HuK went up by ~ 1.42 %, going from ~ 1.91 % to ~ 3.33 % Snute went up by ~ 1.26 %, going from ~ 69.47 % to ~ 70.73 % Cure went up by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 0.2 % to ~ 0.57 % Classic went up by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 99.86 % to ~ 99.99 %Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 20.5 %, going from ~ 81.81 % to ~ 61.31 % viOLet went down by ~ 12.28 %, going from ~ 12.45 % to ~ 0.17 % Solar went down by ~ 10.61 %, going from ~ 10.61 % to ~ 0.01 % VortiX went down by ~ 5.59 %, going from ~ 5.59 % to ~ 0.01 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 2.65 %, going from ~ 2.65 % to ~ 0.01 %+ Show Spoiler [More] +  TLO went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 1.32 % to ~ 0.01 % sOs went down by ~ 1.32 %, going from ~ 62.82 % to ~ 61.5 % Golden went down by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 4.12 % to ~ 3.38 % soO went down by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 18.66 % to ~ 18.05 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.43 %, going from ~ 3.01 % to ~ 2.58 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 12.49 % to ~ 12.19 % Rain went down by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 14.5 % to ~ 14.26 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.15 %, going from ~ 0.71 % to ~ 0.55 % MaNa went down by ~ 0.13 %, going from ~ 0.96 % to ~ 0.82 %Foreigner Hope Snute ~ 46.14 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 70.73 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.47 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 20.47 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 4.4 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 15.9 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.15 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.33 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 0.62 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.58 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] + Dayshi ~ 0.12 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.55 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.03 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.39 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.82 % chance overall. Chances of 1+ foreigners went from ~ 82.28 % to ~ 85.82 % Chances of 2+ foreigners went from ~ 31.03 % to ~ 26.87 % So let's take a look at where we're at. The top 12 players are all over 95% chances, so they're pretty locked in, and the other players are pretty much fighting for the 4 other spots as argonautdice said. We have 4 other players above 50% (Snute, sOs, Jaedong, MMA), and another 13 players above 1%, and another 5 players over 0.1%. From the players over 0.1% and less than 90% these are the ones that if they win their WCS region they get over 10% chances GSL Rain would gain ~ 85.73 % if they win, with a ~ 14.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 14.27 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 81.93 % if they win, with a ~ 5.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.07 % to ~ 100 % INnoVation would gain ~ 69.18 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.82 % to ~ 99.99 %WCS AM HerO would gain ~ 93.76 % if they win, with a ~ 6.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.24 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 89.07 % if they win, with a ~ 5.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.93 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 79.52 % if they win, with a ~ 18.99 % chance to win, going from ~ 20.48 % to ~ 100 % Heart would gain ~ 78.17 % if they win, with a ~ 8.09 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.88 % to ~ 85.05 % HuK would gain ~ 60.47 % if they win, with a ~ 5.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.32 % to ~ 63.8 %WCS EU Welmu would gain ~ 97.42 % if they win, with a ~ 2.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 91.76 % if they win, with a ~ 3.55 % chance to win, going from ~ 3.39 % to ~ 95.14 % ForGG would gain ~ 87.81 % if they win, with a ~ 10.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.19 % to ~ 100 % Bunny would gain ~ 84.1 % if they win, with a ~ 11.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 15.9 % to ~ 100 % MMA would gain ~ 44.83 % if they win, with a ~ 7.45 % chance to win, going from ~ 55.17 % to ~ 100 % MaNa would gain ~ 31.52 % if they win, with a ~ 2.56 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.83 % to ~ 32.35 % YoDa would gain ~ 30.97 % if they win, with a ~ 20.93 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 39.17 % Dayshi would gain ~ 29.94 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.55 % to ~ 30.49 %Cure, Stats, and Happy still don't get over 10% if they win but do have a chance. Cure would gain ~ 2.23 % if they win, with a ~ 20.53 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.58 % to ~ 2.8 % Stats would gain ~ 0.21 % if they win, with a ~ 11.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.24 % Happy would gain ~ 3.36 % if they win, with a ~ 10.3 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 3.75 %We also have Snute, sOs, and Jaedong, who have already been knocked out of WCS but still have good Blizzcon chances. Here are some simple events for them. Snute~ 5.09 % of the time Snute gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 % ~ 4.61 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 100 % ~ 8.47 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.99 % ~ 14.47 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 99.94 % ~ 23.15 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 89.08 % ~ 23.37 % of the time Snute gets 32nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 70.74 % to ~ 39.5 % sOs~ 14.86 % of the time sOs gets 1st in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 % ~ 0.24 % of the time sOs gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 % ~ 13.12 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 % ~ 0.16 % of the time sOs gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 100 % ~ 25.06 % of the time sOs gets 4th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 % ~ 0.29 % of the time sOs gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 99.99 % ~ 46.95 % of the time sOs gets 8th in Red Bull Washington This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 18.04 % ~ 0.46 % of the time sOs gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 97.18 % ~ 0.7 % of the time sOs gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.52 % to ~ 89.81 % Jaedong~ 0.13 % of the time Jaedong gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 % ~ 0.12 % of the time Jaedong gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 % ~ 0.23 % of the time Jaedong gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 100 % ~ 0.41 % of the time Jaedong gets 8th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 61.29 % to ~ 99.8 % Let me know if I'm missing anybody who you think should be here! Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv ----------------------- | ||
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Popkiller
3415 Posts
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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Trasko
Sweden983 Posts
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thantritue
Vietnam70 Posts
Hope he can make it. | ||
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
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